TotalStock
26.11.2000, 15:46
Hallo Leute, beobachtet mal den S&P 500. Der sieht trotz Freitag Holliday Rally immer noch gefährlich aus... Ausserdem glaube ich das viele auf eine leichte Erhohlung warten um doch noch endlich verkaufen zu können.
Keeping a Lid on the Market
Posted 24 November 2000
Summary
The disputed election looms large in the minds of most traders and investors at this stage of the game. Which administration is going to be better for America, Bush or Gore? In all frankness, this question pales in comparison to the economic deterioration we are currently witnessing, but traders cling to the hope that a Bush presidency will be "market friendly." I will postulate that when a "winner" is declared (if one may call him that), the US equity markets will stage a small relief rally. But that rally will be beset by a tremendous supply of stock, for most traders and investors alike have not accumulated the profits they believe due them this year, and many are questioning the veracity of their beliefs. The fact remains: the economy is slowing, the Fed cannot lower interest rates until the labor market shows more definite signs of weakening, and declining corporate revenue, cash flow and capital spending will act to "keep a lid" on the market for the foreseeable future. If I had to put a time frame on this, I would suspect that sometime towards the middle to end of next year the economic landscape will improve enough to warrant probing the long side of the market -- but that's not written in stone. Market conditions continually change, and as traders, we must continually weigh the evidence, and at the present moment that is clearly bearish.
<IMG SRC="http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/richardr/images/richardr20001124-1.gif" border=0>
SP 500 Index ($SPX)
Given the recent declines in the other averages, it is time to reexamine $SPX, for it is a somewhat broader measure. As the daily chart clearly shows, the $SPX has traded down from its September high in the 1500 plus range down to previous support in the low 1300 area, testing crucial previous support. On Wednesday, we saw the $SPX close at its lowest level since October 1999. However, the intraday lows were not violated. Therefore, the trading range continues to remain in force, but a neckline of a less than pretty head and shoulders can be drawn. In either case, a break through the lower boundary, or neckline, would have similar implications - a fall towards the 1125 area - which is the rough percentage measurement from the high at 1530 to the low at 1305. This is then applied to the lower boundary, which then becomes the upper boundary or resistance.
In addition, the tests of the 50- and 450-day simple moving averages (SMA) were negative -- the SPX sold off without being able to trade for a significant period above them, and this will allow for a continued supply of stock at them. Make no mistake about it, the SPX is in a precariously bearish position, but support does lay at the 1250 and the 1200 areas; however, the 450-day SMA is rolling over, and this portends weakness for quite some time in the future. Furthermore, the all-important 20-day stochastic continues to move lower, and this is bearish. Until it turns up from oversold territory, one must remain bearish on this index.
Position Overview
Indice / Contract Fundamental Technical
Dow Industrials Bearish Bearish
S&P 500 Index Bearish Bearish
NASDAQ Composite Bearish Bearish
Nikkei 225 Bullish Neutral
10- Yr. T-Note Yield Neutral Neutral
Japanese Yen Bullish Bearish
The Euro Bullish Bullish
US Dollar Bearish Bearish
Gold Bearish Bearish
Nasdaq/Dow Ratio Bearish Neutral-Bearish
Nasdaq/SP 500 Ratio Bearish Neutral-Bearish
Nasdaq/Yen Ratio Bearish Neutral
Source http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/richardr/richardr20001124.html
Beobachten wir den weiteren Verlauf halt, wissen tun wir es erst im Nachhinein.
Full disclosure: I'm usually wrong! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gif
------------------
Make a good one.
TotalStock
Keeping a Lid on the Market
Posted 24 November 2000
Summary
The disputed election looms large in the minds of most traders and investors at this stage of the game. Which administration is going to be better for America, Bush or Gore? In all frankness, this question pales in comparison to the economic deterioration we are currently witnessing, but traders cling to the hope that a Bush presidency will be "market friendly." I will postulate that when a "winner" is declared (if one may call him that), the US equity markets will stage a small relief rally. But that rally will be beset by a tremendous supply of stock, for most traders and investors alike have not accumulated the profits they believe due them this year, and many are questioning the veracity of their beliefs. The fact remains: the economy is slowing, the Fed cannot lower interest rates until the labor market shows more definite signs of weakening, and declining corporate revenue, cash flow and capital spending will act to "keep a lid" on the market for the foreseeable future. If I had to put a time frame on this, I would suspect that sometime towards the middle to end of next year the economic landscape will improve enough to warrant probing the long side of the market -- but that's not written in stone. Market conditions continually change, and as traders, we must continually weigh the evidence, and at the present moment that is clearly bearish.
<IMG SRC="http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/richardr/images/richardr20001124-1.gif" border=0>
SP 500 Index ($SPX)
Given the recent declines in the other averages, it is time to reexamine $SPX, for it is a somewhat broader measure. As the daily chart clearly shows, the $SPX has traded down from its September high in the 1500 plus range down to previous support in the low 1300 area, testing crucial previous support. On Wednesday, we saw the $SPX close at its lowest level since October 1999. However, the intraday lows were not violated. Therefore, the trading range continues to remain in force, but a neckline of a less than pretty head and shoulders can be drawn. In either case, a break through the lower boundary, or neckline, would have similar implications - a fall towards the 1125 area - which is the rough percentage measurement from the high at 1530 to the low at 1305. This is then applied to the lower boundary, which then becomes the upper boundary or resistance.
In addition, the tests of the 50- and 450-day simple moving averages (SMA) were negative -- the SPX sold off without being able to trade for a significant period above them, and this will allow for a continued supply of stock at them. Make no mistake about it, the SPX is in a precariously bearish position, but support does lay at the 1250 and the 1200 areas; however, the 450-day SMA is rolling over, and this portends weakness for quite some time in the future. Furthermore, the all-important 20-day stochastic continues to move lower, and this is bearish. Until it turns up from oversold territory, one must remain bearish on this index.
Position Overview
Indice / Contract Fundamental Technical
Dow Industrials Bearish Bearish
S&P 500 Index Bearish Bearish
NASDAQ Composite Bearish Bearish
Nikkei 225 Bullish Neutral
10- Yr. T-Note Yield Neutral Neutral
Japanese Yen Bullish Bearish
The Euro Bullish Bullish
US Dollar Bearish Bearish
Gold Bearish Bearish
Nasdaq/Dow Ratio Bearish Neutral-Bearish
Nasdaq/SP 500 Ratio Bearish Neutral-Bearish
Nasdaq/Yen Ratio Bearish Neutral
Source http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/richardr/richardr20001124.html
Beobachten wir den weiteren Verlauf halt, wissen tun wir es erst im Nachhinein.
Full disclosure: I'm usually wrong! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gif
------------------
Make a good one.
TotalStock