Analyse Dow Jones Industrials

[Ralph]

Hier mal eine Analyse des Dow Jones Industrials.

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Der Dow befindet sich seit Jahren in einem sehr ausgeprägten Seitwärtstrend, dessen obere Begrenzung bei 11.900 Punkten verläuft.

Aktuell befindet er sich in einer Range zwischen 10.390 und 11.000 Punkten. Sollte er aus dieser herausfallen, dann wäre die nächste Unterstützung bei 10.000 Punkten zu finden .... darunter wäre der Weg in "Hell's Kitchen" vermutlich vorgezeichnet.

Die eingezeichneten Linien sollten stark ins Auge gefasst werden, denn davon hängen letztlich auch die europäischen Indices in nicht unerheblichem Masse ab.

Aktuell kann man den Zustand des Dow als "neutral" einstufen, wobei allerdings die Frage zu beantworten bleibt "Wie weit soll es mit diesem Index noch nach oben gehen ?"

Aktuell hat der Dow ein KGV von knapp 21, was historisch sicherlich nicht mehr billig ist, aber auch noch nicht so überzogen ..... die Kursgewinne im Index sollten allerdings sehr begrenzt ausfallen, wobei man angesichts der nachstehenden Bewertungskennzahlen sicherlich ins Grübeln kommt, ob der sehr stolzen Bewertung von den meisten Einzelaktien im Dow (und dies nicht nur bei Hightech-Titeln)

Diese Tabelle zeigt die teuersten US-Unternehmen, die meisten davon sind im Dow enthalten.

Rang - Unternehmen - Marktkap. - P/E - Div.-Rendite

1. General Elctrc $442 36.58 1.43%
2. Exxon-Mobil $286 23.16 2.15%
3. Microsoft $276 30.48 0.00%
4. Pfizer $273 68.65 1.02%
5. Cisco $261 86.34 0.00%
6. Wal-Mart $236 37.95 0.45%
7. Citigroup $234 19.40 1.07%
8. Intel $217 21.64 0.25%
9. American Int Gr $201 37.34 0.17%
10. Merck $194 29.89 1.62%
11. Oracle $176 27.63 0.00%
12. SBC Comm $176 21.73 1.95%
13. IBM $162 22.58 0.56%
14. Verizon Comm $150 14.12 2.77%
15. Coca Cola $147 78.13 1.15%
16. EMC $139 96.59 0.00%
17. Johnson-Johnson $137 29.83 1.30%
18. Bristol-Myers $130 29.07 1.65%
19. Home Depot $106 39.89 0.35%
20. Procter-Gamble $97 25.30{ 1.88%
21. Tyco $97 19.25 0.09%
22. Philip Morris $96 11.95 4.89%
23. Eli Lilly $95 32.01 1.33%
24. Sun Micro $95 47.48 0.00%
25. Wells Fargo $84 20.02 1.94%

Für mich ist der Dow Jones angesichts der Wirtschaftsaussichten in den Standardwerten deutlich überbewertet .... inwieweit die relativ günstige Bewertung einer Intel, SBC und Microsoft den Dow oben halten können, bleibt abzuwarten.

Ein Investment in den Dow, gleicht im Moment dem Sprung in ein Planschbecken ..... vom 10 Meter-Turm.

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Viel Glück dabei !

Ralph

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph, wie versprochen die Analyse...

DOW Market Analysis

Updated Saturday, 1/13 for Monday's Market

Key DOW Levels for 1/15
UP Above 10,625
DN Below 10,500


Wide Trading Range
Downward sloping trading range from 10,450 to 10,650. Trade the swings and watch for breaks at the boundaries.

NOTE: MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE FOLLOWING COMMENTARY IS FOR TUESDAY'S MARKET...
From yesterday's commentary,"...In the short term tomorrow, I would watch for a break of 10,625 to the upside and go with it, holding your stop at the same level. In other words, use 10,625 as a fulcrum for day trading tomorrow. If we start down, you should short expecting a reversal in the 10,550 zone... You can see that the consolidation we are currently in, from 10,500 to 10,700 is happening at the low of a move from 11,000. This implies a move down to 10,200 if we break 10,500 down. That's the danger here....."

If you were day trading Friday, I hope you shorted on the opening push down from 10,625. Such a position would have made about 50 points on thefirst run down, and 100 on the second from the midday high. If you look at the 15 Minute Chart, you can see the rally failures at the 10,625 level.

Now, look at the 60 Minute Chart. The interesting thing here is we have a downward sloping pennant, which is reasonably strong for an upside break - and we will be watching the line at 10,625 for that event. In the meantime, you should be out of the market, in my opinion. If you are currently Long, I would exit on a downward crossing of 10,500. As I indicated on the 15 Minute Chart, an intraday short position should be established if we break 10,500 down (using the same level as a cover point).

In a nutshell, the Dow is faltering below a consolidation in the 60 Minute Chart, which is not good for the medium term. But, if you look at the Daily Chart, you can still see the strong, wide consolidation from 10,300 to 11,000 forecasting an ultimate move to 11,250. The problem with holding Long here is there is 300 points of risk to the bottom of the Daily Consolidation pattern. That's too much for me.

Short Term Dow

In the short term, I would watch the trading range from 10,475 to 10,525 that you can see in the 15 Minute Chart. Expect to trade this range Tuesday (Monday is a market holiday). If we break 10,525 solidly to the upside, we will then want to see if it moves through the fulcrum at 10,575. If it drops the other way, we want to get Short at 10,475 for the likely drop to 10,250 from there.

Medium Term Dow

Take a good look at the 15 or 60 Minute Charts. This is why the current market is so frustrating in the medium term. Up, down, up, down. At least, we have formed a good trading range to break out of, and then will likely have a barometer. But the range from 10,450 to 10,650 is just mush. We will do the best we can to identify "lines in the sand" to trade from in the medium term, but it's going to continue to be tough until we solidly break the green line or the red line. In between it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. Wish I had better news, but that's just the way it is right now - on the Dow.

NASDAQ Composite and
OEX (S&P 100)

On the NASDAQ, we have a much different story. If you subscribe to our NASDAQ page ** you know that we have been watching a long "blue" trendline in the Daily Chart. This line interesects our current action at about 2,700. And, we have been expecting (and waiting for) this line to be crossed. Friday, it was reached - precisely - and the market consolidated around it. This is an excellent sign for an upside break. The only negative in the chart is the expanding triangle in the 15 Minute, but if the NASDAQ indeed pushes through 2,700 with any force, it should be good to go on to 3,200 from there. We are expecting this line (at 2,700) to be solidly broken Tuesday, and the market to make a large move upward over the next few days if that happens.

By the same token, a break below the consolidation (at 2,600) will likely usher in a retracement back towards the fulcrum on that index. Whichever way it breaks is the way we will trade in the short term. For the medium term, we are Long from 2525 and holding our mental stops there.

The OEX is tougher, having pulled back to our fulcrum at 685 and reversing Friday. The "way to bet" is for a downside break through 685 Tuesday, but the patterns are not clear. I would be Long here (above 685) but be ready to exit if this level is broken.

In Summary:

We are STILL in a trading range, which makes this market extremely difficult to trade in the medium term. Until the Dow breaks free of the small consolidation in the 60 Minute Chart, from 10,450 to 10,650 we have to wait in the medium term. The big news right now is on the NASDAQ, which is consolidating just below a primary trendline. We are Long that index, expecting the upward break, with mental stops at 2,525 (which was also our entry point).

Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs


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Make a good one.
TotalStock