US-Dollar-Index (3rd Party Analyse)

[Ralph]

Wie man im nachfolgenden Chart erkennen kann, hat der handelsgewichtete US-Dollar-Index die Woche mit einem Gap-Up eröffnet und sie fast mit einem -ich werte es mal als solches- "Bullish Engulfing Pattern" geschlossen. Die Erholung des US-Dollars könnte in den Bereich 112 führen, genau dort wo ein Gap-Down auf das "Schliessen" wartet.

Erfahrungsgemäss sind solche Gaps auch Widerstandsbereiche, die eine Bewegung stark abbremsen können. Hinzukommt auch noch der 200 Tage-GD, der aktuell waagrecht verläuft; dies markiert eine nachlassende längerfristige Aufwärtsdynamik.

Sollte der US-Dollar bis in den Bereich 112 vorstossen, was höchst wahrscheinlich ist, dann würde dieser eine "Flagge" ausbilden, die als Konsolidierungsformation im Abwärtstrend zu werten wäre. Darüberhinaus könnte sich auf Wochenbasis bei nochmaligem deutlichen Anstieg des Dollars eine S-K-S-Formation ergeben, die deutliches Abwärtspotential eröffnen würde.

<u>Tageschart US-Dollar-Index</u>

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<u>Wochenchart US-Dollar-Index</u>

<IMG SRC="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$USD,W" border=0>

Ralph

[Ralph]

Dass die Amerikaner -in ihrem grenzenlosen Selbstbewusstsein und -überschätzung- davon ausgehen, dass der Dollar nur kurzfristig zur Schwäche neigen wird, vermittel auf hervorragende Weise der nachstehende Artikel aus der Businessweek von diesem Wochenende.

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The Euro Zone Beckons. Should You Follow?

A rising euro is giving the Old World new appeal as a destination for investors looking for stability while the U.S. wobbles

How things have changed. Back in October, the euro was an international basket case, worth just 82 cents against the dollar. American exporters watched their Continental markets shrivel as European consumers saw the prices of U.S. goods soar. Now, as the U.S. economy sags and American interest rates fall, the European economy is stabilizing, and the newly minted European currency suddenly looks a lot healthier.

These days, it's trading at around 93 cents on the dollar, with some analysts predicting 100 cents by summer. "Our forecast is parity for the euro by the end of the first quarter," says Greg Anderson, financial economist at Fleet Global Markets.

CONTINENTAL CHARM. Does that make Europe a buy? Many analysts say yes, at least for the next few months. Most see the euro's rebound as the result of a weakening U.S. outlook, and they like European markets as a haven until the economic downturn in the U.S. hits bottom -- probably in midyear.

"We see a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending and major implications for investment strategy," says Nick Parsons, chief currency strategist at Commerzbank. European markets in 2001 will "substantially outperform [the U.S.], and the European currency will be the star performer," he adds.

If Parsons is right, investments in Europe can be used as a hedge against struggling equities in the U.S. and Japan. "This makes sense over the medium term," says Joseph Barnea, foreign-exchange trader at Bank Leumi.

SHORT-TERM SANCTUARY. All the same, a European play is no lock. The euro has had trouble pushing past the 96-cent mark, though its lows are staying above 92 cents or 93 cents, notes Lisa Conte, currency analyst at Prudential Securities. Conte expects "choppy" trading in major currencies until it becomes clear the U.S. Federal Reserve is finished easing. But she doesn't expect parity to last long. "We think that the U.S. economy will pick up dramatically in the second half of the year, and the euro will be back below 90 cents at yearend," says Anderson, who believes the European economy is only one or two quarters behind the U.S. downturn.

The Fed will be key to investors' decisions, both in the U.S. and in Europe. While the central bank's interest-rate cuts will stimulate the U.S. economy, they could also prompt investors to turn to non-U.S. treasuries for better returns. The current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes is 5.2%, vs. 4.8% on 10-year notes for the euro zone -- a very narrow spread.

As those rate cuts begin to take hold, U.S. markets should rebound. "If you look around the world, our economy is still outperforming most of the others. It's more flexible, more productive," says Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards. "This is not a change in the fundamentals that have supported the strong dollar."

The Bush Administration also appears anxious to keep the dollar strong. Paul O'Neill, Treasury Secretary nominee, has vowed to follow the Clinton White House's strong-dollar policy. Some analysts feared that the former chairman of aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. would allow the dollar to weaken in order to boost the bottom lines of U.S. manufacturers, which rely heavily on exports.

GREENBACK REDUX? And there are plenty of homegrown reasons to be wary of European markets. Despite the euro's recent rise, regulations limiting the purchase of stocks in Europe, the Continent's tightly controlled labor markets, and the economic woes of individual nations hobble much of the euro zone. Because of these weaknesses, capital investment on the Continent is not expected to step up substantially. "I'm still dollar-bullish over time," Barnea says, "European economics are not stronger than the U.S."

While Europe may be in comeback mode, its surge pales in comparison with the breakneck pace of the U.S. economy in 1999. Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Citibank, expects European growth to be somewhere in the range of 2.5% to 3%, somewhat better than consensus for the U.S., where expectations are for 2% to 2.5%. Of his extended forecast, Sinche says: "We don't see developments that would attract significant capital inflows into Europe."

So, in the long term, it's tough to bet against the greenback. But while American markets wobble, the underdog euro may offer investors some much needed steadiness.
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Ralph