stock-channel.net - Das Finanzportal - Wir reiten den Goldbullen! (und andere Edelmetalle)

mfabian

23.11.2004, 10:14

Ich hab' mir am Wochenende auch ein paar Gedanken zum Goldbullen gemacht und bin zum Schluss gekommen, dass wir derzeit am Beginn der Phase 2 stehen. Hier meine Überlegungen:

Wenn man die vergangenen Bullenmärkte im Gold zu Rate zieht, lässt sich eine Zyklik erkennen, die es erlaubt, den Goldbullen in grob drei Phasen einzuteilen.

Dabei ist es zunächst einmal wichtig zu definieren, welches die treibenden Kräfte sind, die den Wert des Goldes fallen oder sinken lassen.

Halten wir zunächst mal fest, dass Gold in seinem Wert weder fallen noch steigen kann. Gold ist in begrenzter Menge verfügbar - über und unter der Erde. Es lässt sich auch nur sehr schwer und aufwändig fördern und aus dem Fördermaterial isolieren. Es ist also nicht beliebig vermehrbar (= inflationierbar). Dies ist sicher der wichtigste Grund, weshalb Gold sich in den letzten 5000 Jahren als Zahlungsmittel etabliert hat. Ein weiterer Grund ist die unbeschränkte Haltbarkeit (ansonsten könnte man auch Weizen oder Reis als Zahlungsmittel verwenden).

Wichtig für ein allgemein akzeptiertes Zahlungsmittel ist also die begrenzte Verfügbarkeit und die Haltbarkeit. Deshalb wurden neben Gold auch Münzen aus Silber oder Kupfer als Zahlungsmittel verwendet. Teilweise auch Salz.

Im Gegensatz dazu lassen sich Wertpapiere beliebig vermehren (= drucken). Bei Aktien nennt man das Kapitalerhöhung. Da wird vielleicht die Anzahl der Aktien von 1 Mio auf 1.2 Mio erhöht und somit verringert sich der Anteil, den jeder Aktionär an der Firma hält um 20%. Der Aktienkurs wird entsprechend nachgeben

Bei Währungen sind es die Nationalbanken, die die Notenpresse schneller oder langsamer laufen lassen. Werden mehr Banknoten gedruckt als das Volksvermögen wächst, nennt man das Inflation (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?t=10580">Inflation</a>. ) Das Geld verliert an Wert.

Halten wir aber fest: Es ist nicht das Brot oder das Gold, das teurer geworden ist, nur das Geld hat an Wert verloren. Das Problem ist unsere Sichtweise, die den Wert aus Sicht des Papiergeldes definiert. Wir sagen: 1923 kostete ein Brot 1 Milliarde RM und war somit extrem teuer.

Pustekuchen: Man hätte jederzeit ein Brot gegen 6 Eier eintauschen können. Vor, während und nach der Inflation!

Auch wenn dies nur philosophische Bedeutung hat, ist zunächst festzuhalten: Der Wert des Goldes ändert sich nicht sondern nur der Wert der Währung mit der es bemessen wird. Gold ist der Fels in der Brandung, an dem sich der Wert einer Währung messen lassen muss. Das ist der Hauptgrund, weshalb alle Banken dieser Welt - besonders die Nationalbanken - Gold hassen, denn am Verhältnis der Währung zum Gold werden währungspolitische Fehler wie Inflationierung des Geldes oder Verschuldung gnadenlos sichtbar gemacht.

Somit ist der Goldpreis (im Sinn von Preis des Goldes aus Sicht einer Papierwährung) ein Barometer für das Vertrauen, das die Menschen in dieses Papier setzen.

Vorausgesetzt, das Vertrauen in die Papierwährung ist vorhanden, orientieren sich die Anleger an zwei Faktoren:

1. Wieviel Rendite erhalte ich?

2. Wieviel dieser Rendite wird mir von der Teuerung weggefressen.

Gold kennt weder Wertverfall noch Dividenden. In Zeiten steigender Wirtschaft, steigender Gewinne und Dividenden bei moderater Teuerung ist es nicht sinnvoll, in Gold zu investieren. Denn Gold bringt ja keine Zinsen.

Sobald jedoch die Teuerung höher ist als die Renditen (= Negative Realzinsen) wird Gold wieder attraktiv, denn es garantiert zumindest einen Werterhalt.

Der Goldpreis bildet somit den dritten von drei Zyklen:

* Der erste Zyklus ist jener der Inflation und Deflation. Hohe Inflation und Deflation begünstigen die Nachfrage nach Gold, bei niedriger Inflation wird Gold verschmäht, wenn die Wirtschaft höhere Renditen liefert als die Teuerung wergfrisst. Derzeit liegt die Teuerung bei etwa 4.5-5%, Tendenz steigend.

* Der zweite Zyklus entspricht der Rentabilität der Wirtschaft. Je besser die Wirtschaft läuft umso höher deren Renditen (im historischen Schnitt 4.5-6%) und desto geringer die Nachfrage nach Gold. In Rezessionen erlebt Gold deshalb oft einen Boom, weil sich mit Aktien dank schlechter Dividendenrenditen kaum noch Geld verdienen lässt. Derzeit liegen die Renditen in den USA bei etwa 2%.

* Der Goldzyklus hängt von beiden Zyklen ab. Es macht für sich alleine keinen Sinn, zu behaupten: "Die Dividendenrendite liegt bei 10%, also ist Gold unattraktiv." Falsch, denn wenn gleichzeitig die Teuerung bei 12% liegt, ergibt das eben doch negative Realzinsen von -2% und die sprechen für Gold. Andererseits mögen Aktienanlagen zu 3% Rendite interessant sein, wenn die Teuerung nur 1% beträgt.
Dieses Verhältnis von Renditen zu Teuerung hat das FED-Modell (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?s=&threadid=10588) beschrieben.

Wenn - so wie jetzt - die Dividendenrenditen bei 2% liegen und die Teuerung bei 4.5 bis 5%, macht Aktiensparen keinen Spass mehr, weil die Teuerung die Dividenden wegfrisst. Die realen Renditen sind negativ und Gold wird als Werterhalt wieder attraktiv.

Auslöser für den Bullenmarkt im Gold war die Aktienblase im Jahr 2000, die das KGV auf 42 gehoben und entsprechend die Dividendenrenditen auf 1.6% gedrückt hat. Damit wurde Phase 1 des Goldbullen eingeläutet.

Phase 1
ist dadurch gekennzeichnet, dass eigentlich gar kein Bullenmarkt stattfindet. Da wir den Goldpreis durch die Dollar-Brille betrachten, erscheint es uns so, als sei Gold gestiegen. Pustekuchen: In CHF und EURO gerechnet ist Gold ziemlich konstant geblieben. Einzig der US-Dollar ist abgeschmiert (Grund: Schulden/Vertrauensverlust und Inflation der Geldmenge). Profitieren konnte man aber auch wenn man in Hartwährung rechnet, denn Goldminen und Warrants hebeln das Verhältnis Gold/Dollar.

Nach Richard Russel - einem alten, erfahrenen Börsianer - dauert diese "unechte" Bullen-Phase 2-5 Jahre und endet mit einer langen Korrektur.

Nun, wir hatten von April 2001 bis Anfang 2004 diesen ersten Bullenmarkt und ebenso die ausgedehnte Korrekturphase von Februar bis September 2004.

Damit sind wir nun bereit für Phase 2

Phase 2
Ist zeitlich die längste der drei Phasen. Sie wird ausgelöst durch einsetzende Inflation und ist dadurch geprägt, dass Gold nun nicht nur gegenüber dem Dollar steigt sondern auch gegenüber harten Währungen. Hier ist also nicht nur die Geldmengen-Inflation der Auslöser sondern die durch jene ausgelöste Teuerung.

Interessant wird der lange erwartete Durchbruch des Goldpreises von €350/oz!

Angetrieben durch die USA werden wir in den nächsten Jahren eine steigende Inflation sehen. Wer rein nur an der Börse aktiv ist, wird das gar nicht bemerken, denn die Aktienkurse werden stetig steigen oder zumindest stabil bleiben. Dumm nur, wenn er nicht erkennt, dass währenddessen die Teuerung seine Kursgewinne und Dividenden mehr als wegfrisst.

Wer an der Börse nicht aktiv ist und zu jener Gruppe von Menschen gehört, die Krankenkassenprämien zahlen müssen, wird bereits eher bemerken, dass die Teuerung höher ist als was uns die offiziellen Statistiken vorlügen.

Mit steigender Inflation wird in ein paar Jahren (ähnlich wie Mitte der 70er Jahre) die Teuerung wieder zum Thema der Medien mit BILDungsanspruch werden und die Börsianer werden lernen, ihre Aktien-Performance mit der Teuerung gegenzurechnen. Jene von uns, die über 40 sind und das Spiel in den 70er Jahren schon einmal bewusst erlebt haben, werden dies schneller erkennen als die jüngeren, für die das Thema Inflation Neuland ist.

Die Anleger werden dann das Problem bekommen, dass sie - egal ob sie in Aktien, Obligationen oder Sparbüchlein investieren - immer eine negative Rendite erhalten, weil die Teuerung alles wegfrisst.

Es wird dann wieder in der Fachpresse Artikel geben wie jener aus der Business-Week vom August 1979.

Ich darf mal zitieren:<br>

Der Tod der Aktien
„Die Massen haben sich bereits vor langer Zeit aus dem Aktienmarkt zurückgezogen. Sie sind in alternative Investments mit höherer Verzinsung und damit größerem Schutz vor Inflation eingestiegen. Jetzt haben auch Pensionsfunds die Erlaubnis erhalten, Aktien und Anleihen zugunsten von Immobilien, Futures, Gold und sogar Diamanten fallen zu lassen. Der Tod der Aktien sieht nach einem beinahe permanenten Zustand aus; irgendwann umkehrbar, aber nicht in der nahen Zukunft.“

„Bis jetzt war die Flucht der Institutionen aus den Finanzmärkten eher moderat. Aber es besteht die Gefahr, dass sie sich in einen reißenden Strom verwandelt, falls der diesjährige 60%ige Anstieg des Öl-Preises eine tiefe Rezession auslöst, während die Inflation gen Himmel schießt.“

„In der Tat haben die Aktienmärkte nach einer Untersuchung der Salomon Bros. seit 1968 einen enttäuschenden Return von 3,1% geliefert, der Consumer Price Index (CPI) ist dagegen um 6,5% gestiegen. Gold konnte um unglaubliche jährliche 19,4% zulegen, Diamanten um 11,8% und der Preis von Einfamilienhäusern um 9,6%.“

Als Randbemerkung möchte ich anfügen, dass drei Jahre später, 1982, der grösste und längste Bullenmarkt für Aktien der Geschichte einsetzte. Dazu am Schluss mehr. ;)

Zurück zum Gold: Wenn die Investoren erkennen, dass sie mit Aktien und Anleihen keine real positive Performance mehr erreichen und von ihnen bisher unbemerkt Rohstoffe und Gold in den Himmel schiessen beginnt ...

Phase 3
... des Bullenmarktes im Gold und des Bärenmarktes der Aktien.

Es beginnt eine Blase im Gold, die immer mehr und mehr Anleger mit sich ziehen wird. Selbst jene Kleinstanleger, die noch nie in Börsendingen durchBLICKten werden nun ihre Fonds und Sparbüchlein auflösen, um in Gold oder Goldminen zu investieren. Natürlich gibt es zu wenig des seltenen Metalls und auch zu wenig Aktien und deshalb werden die Preise extrem in den Himmel schiessen. Wir werden dann bei Goldminen-Aktien eine ähnliche Euphorie und Blasenbildung erleben, wie seinerzeit 1998/99 bei den dotcom-Werten der Nasdaq.
Da gleichzeitig alle Anleger sich aus klassischen Aktien verabschieden, werden deren Kurse und KGV's ins bodenlose stürzen. Das Vertrauen in Papier jeglicher couleur wird verschwinden und alle in Gold und Silber rennen.

Vielleicht wird dann die Vision von Richard Russel wieder Realität, dass sich Goldpreis und Dow-Jones Index auf demselben Level, im verhältnis 1:1 treffen wie zuletzt 1979. Zum Beispiel: Goldpreis=$3000, Dow Jones=$3000 ?

Na ja, daran glaube ich nicht. Aber ein Verhältnis 1:4 dürfte durchaus realistisch sein. Z.B. DJ=6000 und Gold=1500 oder DJ 10000 und Gold $2500

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/dj-au-ratio-lt.gif

Wie dem auch sei:
Phase 3 wird die wahrscheinlich kürzeste, auf alle Fälle aber heftigste Phase sein. Hier ist sehr viel Fingerspitzengefühl erforderlich, um sich von der Gold-Euphorie nicht anstecken zu lassen und den richtigen Ausstiegspunkt nicht zu verpassen. Irgendwann gegen Ende der Phase 3 wird auch der hinterste und letzte Kleinstanleger vermeintlich durchblicken und seine Aktienperlen gegen das ebenso "vermeintlich" sichere Gold tauschen. Dann wird es Zeit, langsam auszusteigen, mit Goldminen ein paar Tausend Prozent Gewinn mitzunehmen und Perlen wie eine Credit-Suisse oder Novartis für Fr. 15.- pro Aktie bei einem KGV von 6 reinzuziehen.

Dann, in vielleicht 10 Jahren, wird Gold in einer übertriebenen Blase kollabieren und Aktien werden für ein Butterbrot zu haben sein.

Ein neuer Bullenmarkt für Aktien wird ebenso beginnen wie ein Bärenmarkt für Gold. Aber bis es soweit ist, reiten wir den Goldbullen. Durch alle Höhen und Tiefen!

In diesem Zusammenhang wird vielleicht auch klar, weshalb ich so gelassen reagiere, wenn einzelne Titel wie GSS, CDE oder BGO mal 50% steigen oder fallen. Das ist alles nicht wichtig, wenn man das grosse Ziel vor Augen hat: Sie zwischen 2009 und 2013 mit 1000% Gewinn zu verkaufen sobald die Boulevard-Presse mit BILDung eine Kaufempfehlung für Gold auf der Titelseite hat.

Marcus

verlustx

23.11.2004, 18:29

LZ :cool: Marcus

Rishi-Giri

29.11.2004, 20:20

Hallo Zusammen!

Habe mir übers Wochenende auch so ein paar Gedanken gemacht bezüglich Gold und Dollar…

Gold befindet sich seit seinen Doppeltiefs 1999 und 2001 bei etwa 260$ in einem eindeutigen Bullenmarkt und hat bis dato etwa 75 % auf 450$ zugelegt.

Der Dollar ist seit Anfang 2001 bei ca. USD/CHF 1.80 in einem Bärenmarkt und hat etwa 40% seines Wertes verloren.

Gab es in diesem mittlerweile etwa 4 Jährigen Ablauf zwischendurch Einbrüche im Bullenmarkt des Goldes respektive Bear-Market Rallyes im Dollar?

Solche zeitweiligen Korrekturen sind für die Trenderhaltung gesund, ja geradezu notwendig. Oft sind Sie „kurz aber brutal“.

Beim Gold:

Korrektur Anfang 2003: von 390$ auf 320$ à Weniger als 20%

Korrektur Frühling 2004: von 430$ auf 370$ à Weniger als 20%

Beim Dollar:

So gut wie keine Korrekturen, zweimal eine etwa +10% Korrektur

Gibt es brauchbare Modelle die den Goldverlauf beschreiben?

mfabian bezieht sich in seinem interessanten Posting auf den Artikel von Adam Hamilton den ich hier im Forum (als link) bereits reingestellt hatte.

Er fasst Hamilton’s Dreiphasenkonzept prima zusammen und kommt (so scheint mir) zum Schluss, dass das Modell eigentlich ziemlich realistisch und brauchbar ist.

Nun, das sehe ich genauso.

Wenn das Modell brauchbar erscheint, wo stehen wir denn Zurzeit im vorgeschlagenen Modell?

mfabian sagt: am Anfang von Phase 2.

Für den Anfang von Phase 2 spricht vieles:

- Gold ist dabei sich vom Dollar zu lösen und hat seit einiger Zeit angefangen auch in CHF zu steigen

- Teilbereiche der Wirtschaft sind bereits (stark) Inflationär

- Es wird zunehmend immer schwieriger mit klassischen Anlagevehikeln eine positive Rendite zu erwirtschaften

- Gold ETF’s etc. machen das Investieren in Gold immer einfacher, Gold wird als normaler Bestandteil eines Portfolios wahrgenommen.

- Der Dollar als Weltreservewährung scheint nun auch offiziell zum Abschuss freigegeben worden zu sein, das Vertrauen in den Dollar schwindet massiv

- und sicher noch viele weitere Gründe mehr (man denke nur an das ganze „Asien-Problem“)

The big question: sollte man Aufgrund dieser Überlegungen konsequenterweise jetzt Gold kaufen respektive den Dollar shorten?

Meine Meinung: nein !

Warum nicht?

1. Wenn es war ist, dass wir es mit einem Gesunden langfristigen Trend zu tun haben, brauchen wir meiner Meinung nach anständige Korrekturen (etwa 20% bis 50%).
Wieso zum Einstieg nicht den ersten grossen Einbruch abwarten?

2. Die Positionierung der Commercials ist massiv pro Dollar und Kontra-Gold. Die Commercials positionieren sich manchmal zu früh oder ungenau, aber völlig daneben liegen Sie sozusagen nie.

3. Die Spekulationen gegen den Dollar sind massiv und können jederzeit eine Short-Squeeze Bombe zünden.

4. Ein immerhin Zehn-Jahre Tief ist fast erreicht

5. Der Bradley Siderograph zeigt Anfang Dezember einen Wendepunkt an

6. Die Dollarkrise kommt immer vehementer in die News

7. Gold in CHF zeigt in letzter Zeit Ermüdungserscheinungen und seit mitte August hat sich sogar eine kleine SKS ausgebildet.

8. Bei ca. 80 (also in Knapp über 2% Wertverlust ab jetzt) liegt ein sehr langfristiger Support im USD Index, bricht der Weg geht es wohl relativ direkt in die Hölle – und das ausgerechnet jetzt, so kurz vor Weihnachten und Jahresende? Nein, ganz im Gegenteil….

… wage ich einfach Mal die Prognose (Prognosen machen doch unser Forum hier spannender oder?), dass der USD/CHF allerspätestens bei 1.11 (wahrscheinlich aber bei 1.12) drehen wird und mindestens 1-2 Monate zulegen wird. Gold wird verlieren, aber weniger stark, weil es sich in der Tat weiter vom Dollar lösen wird.

Spätestens mitte 2005 wird es dann wohl tatsächlich losgehen mit Wellen 2 und 3 beim Gold und das ist ;)

mama mia

11.12.2004, 20:16

The streetTRACKS Gold Trust
Far more than simply an Exchange Traded Fund bringing new people to the market!

Julian D.W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money
13 December, 2004

The selling of 15 tonnes of gold from the streetTRACKS Gold Trust, appeared apparently, before the price of gold dropped so dramatically, on Tuesday/Wednesday. The importance to this action does not lie in the present arguments being aired so fully on the web, but in the very nature of the Trust and how it fits into the market place. We have to say that this week has shown the present and future nature of the animal and we are impressed by the power it is attracting. The World Gold Council is gagged from marketing these features by New York Stock Exchange bureaucrats in their endless wisdom.

Because of this week's behaviour by the Exchange Traded Fund, we now subscribe to the view that it is set to become far more than a home for a new type of Gold Investor [so widening the market in gold], we expect it to become a key gold market vehicle. This is a view expressed slightly differently by Mr Pierre Ljhhyjhassonde of late, but with the same conclusion. Why?

It is not just that it is a definite bridge between paper shares and physical gold [and a very short one at that]. It does that as none has done before.
.
It is not simply a vehicle to attract the small man, the Pension fund, or those who want to remove themselves form the business risks attendant on gold mining companies, which it does superbly.
.
Its real additional value lies in the speed of dealing and the cost of dealing.

Essentially it is acting as a "Jobber," the wonderful [wholesaler] fellow who on the old London Stock Exchange would stand in the middle of the floor, dealing only with the Stockbroker's dealers, whose "Blue" buttons would then run to the phone to phone the completed execution of orders to their office. They in turn reported to the Institutions or individual Investors who had placed orders with them. The beauty of this system is that there has been no such concept in the Gold market before. It represents the near immediate conversion of the piece of paper representing a small portion of gold into an actual transaction in physical gold! The difference between the Jobber and H.S.B.C.'s role is that the Jobber held a position in the Stock he wholesaled, protecting himself through the "Spread" he offered on the price. The Trust using H.S.B.C. cannot afford to hold positions in gold, it has to run as close to a 'zero position' as possible.

The H.S.B.C. bank is the largest member of the gold fixing, so the most competent to fill this role. They are in a position to provide such a speed of dealing, so that not only the Trust, but they are not caught holding a "position" in physical gold. Their share 'book' would have to match their physical gold 'book' at all times, so as not to be caught in a 'risk' position, that would make them and the Trust vulnerable to losses. That would be the quick way to a disaster. The H.S.B.C. bank is again, in the best position to keep that book 'square', by being constantly on top of the 'buy' & 'sell' orders and making sure that they were selling / buying physical gold in an instant, to match these orders. By virtue of their market making role in the gold market, they can do this with ease.

Editor's note: An excellent history of the HSBC can be found here: http://www.hsbc.com/hsbc/about_hsbc/group-history?cp=/public/groupsite/about_hsbc/en/group_history_1865_1899.html

What the E.T.F. does for the gold market is to expand the scope of the gold market and to bring the efficiency of the bullion market to this "gold" note market. What this will mean, in contrast to the Futures market, is that the paper market has almost become 'physical.' So it is no wonder that the gold price reacted to the sale of streetTRACKS - Gold Trust 15 tonnes of gold, it is the ideal quick dealing medium and the seller will get his price just before the gold is dropped onto the market. Will H.S.B.C. bring in a ruling that the price only applies to maximum size deal of 'x' amount of gold to protect themselves? I doubt it, they will just have to deal fast enough themselves. It is 15 tonnes deals that tested the quality of this instrument and it passed this test with flying colours. No doubt it will be tested in the future on larger amounts. But the fact it passed this test, will bring professional into this instrument in far larger quantities than at present.

The small, medium and large dealer in gold now has an efficient way of dealing on the gold price. In extremis, when the very gold dealing and banking systems are suspect, then in any event, irrespective of what any piece of paper says, investors should have moved into holding their gold at home.*

We will see, in time, as the different participants get used to such instruments and the way they work that the different market players will operate with them. These instruments will have a home alongside gold shares, and futures and options. Indeed it may well find they themselves have derivatives drawn from them which will then be traded freely.

[B]We would suggest that the Bureaucrats at the New York Stock Exchange did actually do their job and made this share just what it purports to be. We expect it to have a long, large and steady growth in the future, to become a fundamental gold market investment. We believe it has just passed an "acid" test more critical than any other!

Please note that a similar E.T.F. is soon to be listed in Hong Kong, no doubt accessible to the Chinese market?

Extracted from Gold - The Weekly Global Perspective w/end 10 December, 2004

Julian W. D. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money -->****Services****|****Disclaimer
Email: gold-authenticmoney@iafrica.com
Website: Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright ©2004 Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money
_____________

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips121304.html

Janine

14.12.2004, 13:02

cherry

14.12.2004, 16:22

Man liest zwar immer, dass Gold wieder in Mode sei (als Schmuck vielleicht?;)), aber in € kann man doch damit kaum gewinnen, oder? Experten raten wohl deshalb auch ab. Mein Bankberater meinte, dass mit dem Gold sei Quatsch und man solle lieber langfristig in Fonds investieren.

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=717683#post717683)

....da muß ich mich mal dazwischen schalten. Dein Bankberater ist der größte Depp..... das kannst du ihn auch so wortwörtlich ausrichten ..... und ist nur hinter der provision her, die er bekommt.
Nicht das du mich falsch verstehst. Ich nicht einer der zu 100% in Gold sitzt, aber 5-10% des Depotvolumen, bei kleineren Depots als Münzen, sollte man haben und das reein physisch.

Die Fonds, die der Berater empfiehlt, ist der schlechteste Rat den man jemanden geben kann. Nach den Ausgabeaufschlag von 5% (...da frag ich mich für was ?) kannst du noch jährliche Verwaltungsgebühr von 2% + Erfolgsprovision (mußt du auch bezahlen, wenn der Dax um 30% fällt und sie nur um 29,5%) bezahlen.

Der Vertritt deine Interessen auf jeden Fall nicht. Tritt ihn in den A.... ;)

verlustx

14.12.2004, 16:27

....da muß ich mich mal dazwischen schalten. Dein Bankberater ist der größte Depp..... das kannst du ihn auch so wortwörtlich ausrichten ..... und ist nur hinter der provision her, die er bekommt.
Nicht das du mich falsch verstehst. Ich nicht einer der zu 100% in Gold sitzt, aber 5-10% des Depotvolumen, bei kleineren Depots als Münzen, sollte man haben und das reein physisch.

Die Fonds, die der Berater empfiehlt, ist der schlechteste Rat den man jemanden geben kann. Nach den Ausgabeaufschlag von 5% (...da frag ich mich für was ?) kannst du noch jährliche Verwaltungsgebühr von 2% + Erfolgsprovision (mußt du auch bezahlen, wenn der Dax um 30% fällt und sie nur um 29,5%) bezahlen.

Der Vertritt deine Interessen auf jeden Fall nicht. Tritt ihn in den A.... ;)

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=717769#post717769)

servus cherry:) ......volle zustimmung......kostenlos kann man sich ja mal die fonds auf nt-v ab seite 350 anschauen.....ist so ziemlich alles drauf.....aktien..renten usw....max perf. allerdings nur 3 jahre...wenn ich richtig informiert bin...ansonsten WKN des fonds eingeben und einfach den langfristigen chart hochfahren.....
ich schreibe dies hier, weil ich auch reingelegt worden bin mit fonds....vor ca. 10 jahren.....mehr muss ich wohl nicht schreiben.....:gomad

gruss verlustx:zz

Janine

14.12.2004, 18:08

OK. Hatte es fast befürchtet. Danke, Ihr Lieben!

anna

14.12.2004, 18:50

The Risk To Gold Equities Grows

To: New Orleans Conference

From: Frank Veneroso

December 6, 2004

The following presentation is a write up of the notes I used in making the concluding speech at the November New Orleans conference. As I have been writing these notes up into a full blown text, much that is relevant has transpired, so I have taken the liberty of including some of this to strengthen the presentation I gave that Sunday in New Orleans.

The Big Picture

Last year at this conference I discussed the subject – inflation or deflation ahead. I argued that the current global economic recovery was driven by two locomotives: U.S. consumption and Chinese capital spending. The rest of the world was carried forward by these two locomotives.

I argued that there was something untenable about this recovery. Both locomotives were driven by unsustainable increases in debt relative to income. As long as debt is expanding rapidly, income will grow. But the rising level of indebtedness becomes a huge deflationary weight on economic activity once debt growth seriously slows.

Over the last year we have seen outsized increases in the indebtedness of households in the U.S. and the indebtedness of businesses and households in China. China is moving to slow its debt growth and its economy. The U.S. is not. But debt growth and economic activity have slowed somewhat anyway.

Europe, Japan, Korea, and some other economies recovered only because of the booms in U.S. consumption and Chinese capex. Now that these locomotives have slowed these economies in their train have slowed sharply.

The odds favor that the dynamics of over indebtedness will lead to further slowing in the global economy. The threat of inflation will give way to the threat of serious disinflation and perhaps even deflation.

Somewhere in the midst of all this policy makers around the world will panic. There is too much debt in the U.S., Japan, Korea, China, U.K., and even core Europe for serious disinflation or deflation. Then policy makers will move to unconventional measures, to helicopter money, to deliberate debt confiscation.

The coming shift to disinflation is the background for a serious correction in commodities and gold within the context of a very long bull market. The move to unconventional measures will mark the beginning of the second leg up which will be led by gold.

Introduction

I have been a speaker at this conference for almost a decade now. When gold was moving toward the bottom of its bear market and everyone was wicked bearish on gold, Jim Blanchard and I hatched the idea of the Gold Book which Jim and Brien published. In those days, amid all the gloom at $280 gold, I used to give rousing bullish speeches on the coming bull market in gold.

I am still a long run gold bull. But I now manage a European gold certificate that focuses on investing in small cap undervalued junior golds. We recognize the extreme risks of such an endeavor as junior gold stocks are not exactly seasoned equities. We try to avoid those issues which Doug Casey refers to as "burning matches" – exploration companies with no delineated asset who are burning cash in an effort to find one. But even those juniors with clearly delineated assets are volatile and even can be perishable during periodic downswings that can punctuate an overall gold bull market. For this reason, we have the ability to hedge our risk extensively in order to manage the periodic large price risks that are created by such wide oscillations characteristic of a gold bull market.

Almost everyone at this conference is bullish on gold – a far cry from the environment of years ago. I must say, as a manager of a certificate program focusing on small cap gold equities, I am not a happy camper. The junior golds act horribly. I could never have imagined such poor price action and lack of liquidity this far along in a gold bull market. This, plus all the other things I will talk about to you, will be marked by caution and concern. I am the final speaker at this conference. I hope my transformation from uncompromising bull to concerned long term bull is not too much of a disappointment.

Warning Signs Everywhere

We are long term gold bulls. But gold bull markets experience severe corrections. In the great 1970’s bull market in gold the price of gold corrected by more than 50% from the end of 1974 to 1976. Noted gold analyst, John Doody, has looked at the length of major bull moves in gold since 1971. Based on his analysis the current bull run in gold is slightly longer than any of the prior ones. There is nothing conclusive about this; it does not necessitate an end to the bull run now. But, it stands as a warning that the bull run in gold in recent years is much extended in terms of time.

Over the past several decades oscillations in the price of gold have been correlated with a host of indicators of sentiment and investor positioning. All these indicators are now at great extremes- extremes which have coincided with market tops in the past. Many of the other analysts at this conference like Ian McIvity have documented this better than I can.

Most disturbing is the behavior of the gold equities. A serious divergence between these equities and the dollar price of gold began in October when the price of gold reached the 420 level and the HUI gold stock index reached the 240 level. Since then gold has worked itself higher in dollars. At the same time gold equities failed to make and hold a major new high. More recently, over the last two weeks, the price of gold has worked significantly higher while the gold stock indices have broken down in a rather ominous fashion.

Gold

HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index

It has often been remarked that the gold shares lead the price of gold. We have not been able to statistically document the validity of this claim over long periods of time. But, a cursory examination of the charts over the last decade would suggest that there is some validity to it. To this degree the ominous looking top in the gold stock indices stands as a warning.

What Is Wrong With The Gold Stocks?

We publish a letter to the holders of our gold certificate. We discussed this issue in our last letter to investors. We believe that there has been record hedge fund herding into short dollar future and forward trades. These same speculators have taken on record long positions in gold futures and forwards as another variant of their short dollar trades. The CFTC data shows that the net spec long position in Comex gold futures is slightly below the record peak at the beginning of April just before the break in the gold price. However, we hear from the major dealers that most fund positions today are classified as commercial and not speculative positions. On this bull run in gold the Comex open interest has moved to an all time high, well above April’s peak. We believe this indicates that spec positions on both Comex and the much larger global OTC forward market are also now at record peaks.

We have warned that funds and prop desks that trade in gold futures and forwards are pure momentum players who follow short term trends. They have no investment commitments to any of their markets. When these trends falter they often all try to exit at once and together. This is illustrated in crashes that occurred in silver in April and copper in October. We see something similar but less dramatic in the break in oil that occurred after the peak in October.

Silver

Copper

Oil

For such momentum traders, all poised to exit their market before "the other guy", liquidity is of the essence. That is why their preferred habitat is the gold futures and forward markets which are among the most liquid in the world and which trade around the clock, allowing instant exit at virtually any point in time.

Gold shares are far less liquid than gold futures and forwards. They also trade only during appointed hours when their respective stock exchanges are open. Large cap gold equities are reasonably liquid. Intermediate cap issues are less so and small cap issues are not liquid at all. Momentum traders cannot afford to touch the latter. There ownership is dominated by true gold investors with a long term time horizon and with a commitment to gold as an asset class.

In our last letter to certificate holders we noted that the smaller the market cap the poorer the performance of gold equities. Most distressing in recent months has been the depressed trading volumes of the small cap shares. This is virtually unprecedented. New highs in the price of gold after an extended bull run have always brought the public into the gold shares. Typically the small cap issues lagged at the beginning of a bull move but became star performers with huge trading volumes once the move became extended. Just the opposite has happened this time. Although some junior gold issues have achieved popularity with investors and have performed well, most of them have been surprising laggards. We have found that new companies with new developments but no real established asset values have tended to be among the better performing issues, while companies that have been around a long time and have established but now familiar assets of real value have been generally neglected. I remember Doug Casey
saying this market only likes "fresh meat". The fallen angels of yesteryear, even if they now have good assets, often tend to languish. In any case, on average the small companies have underperformed, and, most importantly, trading volumes are well below the levels of late 2003.

Here at the New Orleans conference we probably have the largest number of noted gold analysts. I know many of these analysts well from having attended these conferences for many years. All have been struck by the lack of interest in the junior gold equities. One noted analyst has told me that he posed the question to a large assembly of you attendees: How many of you have bought a gold stock in the last month? Only two raised their hands.

I have found something of a consensus as to why the junior gold equities are doing so poorly. First, the gold companies issued a flood of equity paper in 2003 and 2004. Second, the gold sector is not attracting new followers. Several analysts have stressed, the constituency for gold investing is graying. The attendance today is still the older cohort. Those investors are already fully invested. What buying power they had has been met by the flood of paper issued by the gold companies. Now they are long, under water on their investments, and trapped in issues with poor liquidity.

Others noted that there have been very few exciting new exploration discoveries to ignite new investor interest. I have heard frequent complaints that the new post Bri Ex regulations (43101 etc,) are sapping the money and effort of the juniors and impeding new exploration and mine development.

Many like Billy Murphy find this caution on the part of investors bullish. It would be if these retail investors had cash to put to work, but most appear to be fully committed. This overall situation shares in many respects the characteristics of many equity markets that had an extended bull run that ended in speculative excess. There are technical studies that show that it takes about three years for an equity sub-sector to go from being one of the worse performers to one of the best performers and then another three years to reverse this cycle. Typically, the speculative excess takes the form of a parabolic blow off in prices which surely happened in late 2003 in the minor gold stock sector. During such a parabolic blow off in any equity market there is large new issuance that eventually sates demand, which occurred in the gold sector as well in 2003.

HUI Index

In such speculative blow offs enthusiastic market participants buy, not because of underlying fundamental values and a long term investment objective, but simply because rapid price acceleration creates the allure of instant riches. Many investors get caught holding paper, the fundamentals of which they do not understand. When the correction comes they hope for the inevitable rally to new highs. But enough are chastened that there is very considerable liquidation when the rally comes. This process of distribution is often apparent only in the charts, which show flagging stock price performance even though the original theme associated with the speculative blow off appears intact. Markets like this frequently trace out double tops. When the second rally fails all those who were hoping find their hopes dashed and a serious bear slide often sets in.

The current charts of the gold stocks suggest such a possibility. Of course, everything will depend on the price of gold. We fully understand the bull case. It claims: the U.S. has an unsustainable current account deficit; the dollar will continue to fall; and gold, which has been closely correlated with the euro recently, will continue to rally. Then investors will see in the lagging gold shares value and opportunity and rush in to buy. The gold shares will then catch up to the metal.

This is the reigning consensus among gold investors. It’s what is keeping those investors that are now fully committed, under water and hoping, in the game. Maybe a further rally in gold will bring fresh money to the market and make their hopes become reality. But, under the technical and psychological conditions we have outlined above, the gold shares could be extremely vulnerable if the metal has a significant correction, which is long overdue by many measures.

Gold As A Commodity

What drives the price of gold? First, it has certain commodity dynamics. Investors recognize this. What happens to the price of commodities at large influences the behavior of investors towards gold the metal. From 2001 to 2004 we had a bull run in almost all commodities. Commodities are inherently cyclical – these bull runs do not last forever. In fact, over the very long run, the real prices of commodities tend to oscillate around a declining trend (I want to stress that gold is an important exception to this which is very bullish for the long run).

Grains made decade highs early this year. They have done a roundtrip and are now on five year lows. They remind us that, even though China has a voracious appetite for all commodities, including grains, commodities are inherently cyclical.

Corn

The most important commodity of all is oil. It had a great bull run from after the Iraq War to the end of October. When oil was at its peak gold bulls sighted the long run correlation between the price of oil and the price of gold. The price of gold would rise, they said, because it has been lagging the price of oil. Since its peak oil has fallen and recently it has fallen precipitously. This should be construed as a short run negative for gold.

The global economy is clearly slowing. In the third quarter the economies of Japan, Germany and France slowed to almost zero growth. The U.S. economy has now decelerated to its trend rate. Chinese net imports of many commodities are down. Meanwhile, the supply of many commodities is rising in response to high prices. Though copper has recovered half of its precipitous October decline, an industrial metal like nickel has only stabilized. The history of commodity cycles tells us that, amidst slowing global demand, commodity prices should fall further. This will not be positive for the price of gold. Institutions and individuals allocating funds to commodity baskets will back away. Speculators pushing trends associated with the commodity theme will liquidate their longs. All these commodity trades tend to be somewhat correlated. If this occurs, gold should not go unscathed.

Gold As A Currency

We have noted that there has been a close correlation between gold and the euro recently. Clearly, with oil in decline, the price of gold has been driven largely by the depreciation of the dollar against the major G7 countries currencies. It is very likely that over the short run the price of gold will continue to be influenced by the movements in the dollar. (Someday this will end and gold will rise in all currencies, but probably not now.)

I set out earlier the consensus position: the U.S. has an unsustainable current account deficit, therefore, the dollar must fall. In our last investment letter to certificate holders I discussed this issue in some detail. The economics are complex. But I will address it again.

The key question is, does the U.S. have a large current account deficit because its prices are out of line with its trading partners? If they are – that is, if goods are too expensive to produce in the U.S. relative to the cost of the production of goods abroad – the U.S. will experience a loss of competitiveness, deterioration in its trade, and a large current account deficit.

We can measure this relative competitiveness in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Such measures suggest that the U.S. is quite competitive with Europe and Japan. Competitiveness in tradable goods markets with these countries is not the source of its overall current account deficit. And, by the way, account for only about 30% of the U.S. current account deficit.

Based on PPP the U.S. is not competitive with China and many other low wage emerging countries. But neither is Europe and Japan. If there is a competitiveness problem for the U.S., there is also such a problem for Europe and Japan. In the long run the dollar will have to depreciate in real terms against the Chinese yuan and the other emerging market currencies, but it certainty need not against the euro and yen. And it is dollar depreciation against the latter that is now driving the price of gold.

PPP, competitiveness, and the relative prices of tradables are not the only things that cause trade and current account deficits or surpluses. There are differences in economic growth rates. If one country is growing much faster than another it will suck in imports and its trade and current account balance will deteriorate. Studies show that over the short run differences in the growth rates of domestic demand have a far greater impact on trade and current account balances than considerations of competitiveness and relative prices.

The U.S. is growing at almost 4%, which is probably above trend. In the third quarter Germany, France, and Japan had almost no growth. This contributes in a large way to the U.S. current account deficit with these economic blocks. Adjustment is not achieved through changes in exchange rates in such circumstances; it is achieved through a return to trend rates of growth by all parties.

There is another way of looking at this. Current account imbalances simply reflect different savings propensities. The U.S is growing rapidly because its government and consumers have been spending more and more relative to their incomes. Other countries have been growing more slowly because their governments are fiscally constrained and their consumers are cautious and are trying to save more. Viewed from this perspective the U.S. current account imbalance exists because it is the profligate in the world, with virtually no net national savings, whereas Europe and Japan have significant net national savings.

The U.S. is growing at or above trend. It does not want to stop. It allegedly is talking the dollar down in order to reduce its trade deficit which helps its economy at the expense of its trading partners. In effect, it is beggaring its weaker neighbors.

In our last letter to certificate holders I made an error in thinking that U.S. policy makers would stick to decades of multilateral cooperation in this regard and respect the weaker economic situations of its neighbors. Apparently, they are not. The struggling economies of Europe and Japan have been lifted only through improved exports. They see in a weaker dollar a threat to their exports which are already beginning to deteriorate. Further deterioration could put their economic growth rates in the red.

The trend downward in the dollar coupled with an alleged U.S. preference for a weak dollar has created giant bearish bandwagon speculation against the dollar. This speculative selling has displaced the dollar from some economic equilibrium, which by implication is presumably higher. The governments of Europe and Japan keep insisting that the dollar’s decline is out of line with the fundamentals. They keep insisting that the problem is not one of exchange rates and relative prices but rather the huge disparity in savings behavior between the U.S. and themselves. The problem is not solved by dollar devaluation; it is solved by the U.S. restraining its profligacy and returning to a net national savings rate that is both its national and the global historic norm.

It is hard for people to understand that, when savings propensities are so disparate, a large current account deficit can be the reigning market equilibrium even if it is unsustainable in the long run. Let me try to illustrate.

Is the dollar overvalued? Against what? Europe and Japan? The depreciation in the dollar against the euro and yen has had little impact on the U.S. current account so far (though some impact is due, given the lags in trade). Most models suggest something like 70 yen/dollar and 1.80 dollar euro are needed to shave perhaps 1% or 2% off the U.S. current account deficit. Does that make sense? Will a cup of coffee in Milan have to go to $16 for the U.S. to correct its external imbalance?

Now think about this from the point of disparities in savings propensities. Assume a U.S. with a historically normal saving rate. Poof. The current account deficit shrinks, and by a lot. Let the ECB ease and stimulate domestic demand. Poof. The current account deficit shrinks further. Then we don’t need an exchange rate equilibrium with $16 cups of coffee in Milan.

Let me illustrate further.

I had two assistants. One was a total spendthrift. Spent every penny she could borrow, with no concern about how she could service the debt, let alone pay it back. I had another that saved 50% of her after tax income regardless of the yield on her savings. The thrifty assistant in effect lent to the profligate one via the banking system. The short and medium run equilibrium was an unsustainable current deficit between the two. Of course, in the end the game would end. But how? The profligate would stop her deficit spending, that’s how. And then the deficit would have to go away.

Well, that is basically the problem with the U.S. current account deficit. Except Miss Profligacy – the U.S. - won’t accept the cold turkey adjustment of recession.

The U.S. has a recession sized fiscal deficit and zero household savings. That never happened before. In the early 1980’s the household saving rate was 9% when the fiscal deficit was this size. The financial surpluses/deficits of the four economic sectors – households, governments, corporations and rest of the world (current account) – must sum to zero. It’s a waterbed world – push down one sector balance and another will have to go up. How are you going to create a new low U. S. current account deficit if you don’t increase the savings of households and government? Reduce the current account deficit via exchange rate depreciation and thereby add to the rate of corporate free cash flow? It’s already at record levels. The labor share of income is already record low. The current account deficit is not an imbalance that requires $16 cups of coffee in Milan to correct – it requires changes in savings propensities in the U.S. and abroad.

Of course, U.S. dissaving is only one side of the problem. The other is that Asia saves and invests too much. These are simply same coin, two sides. Once investment ratios are so high and the capital stock is export oriented, you can’t adjust costlessly. This is China’s problem. Europe and Japan’s currencies are all right. Given their weak demand patterns they might be overvalued against the dollar. Yes, China and the emerging world must eventually revalue. In the past emerging Asia did it by inflating higher than the U.S. But not now. Because the Chinese investment ratio is crazy high even relative to emerging Asia, she cannot take a large revaluation. The crazy high investment ratio would then no longer be validated and growth would have to go negative.

The U.S. current account deficit is not the global imbalance. It is the outcome of deeper global imbalances – dissaving in the U.S. and overinvestment and over saving in China and elsewhere. Correct those and the U.S. current account deficit falls to a level that is consistent with a non explosive external U.S. debt path. Without $16 cups of coffee in Milan.

When one looks at it this way one can see that as long as the U.S. is Miss Profligacy and Europe and Japan and the emerging world are Miss Thrifty the dollar market equilibrium is higher than the current dollar level and it is only huge speculative shorting that has pushed the dollar down.

This is all economic argumentation about a hugely complex subject. I recognize this and do not want to be dogmatic. But, to look at this more simply, the dollar has declined now for eleven weeks in a row. Measures of sentiment and positioning show an extraordinary oversold. On the long term chart the dollar is at a multi decade low with multiple touch points. Even a rabid dollar bear like Richard Russell has looked at this chart and made the following comment:

"How far can the dollar drop? The dollar, like a stock, can do "anything," but note the strong support in the 80 area. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the worst we will see ahead, at least for a while, will be a dollar drop to the 80 level. And knocking the dollar down that last 4 points to 80, assuming it gets there, will be difficult. Why? The negative facts about the dollar are too well known, and too many people are now on the negative side of the dollar."

Dow Theory Letters –Richard’s Remarks, Richard Russell, November 9, 2004

I have never seen a two way market in which virtually every participant thought it was one way. The dollar can only go down. For most markets, when psychology reaches this extreme, everyone is on one side of the boat and the boat is ready to tip. I am not alone in this view. Mark Farber, another rabid dollar bear, has recently put out a letter entitled

Sell US Stocks and Buy the Dollar

-Dr. Marc Faber, December 3, 2004

I want to note that there are exceptions to this in currency markets. When a country, like the U.K. or Thailand, whose relative prices are out of line and therefore has a current account deficit, tries to defend a fixed exchange rate with limited reserves, everyone can be bearish on that currency and be proven correct. But when currencies are floating like dollar/euro and dollar/yen this is much less likely to occur.

But even if the dollar is overdue for a bounce, what would precipitate it?

The European and Japanese policy makers, fearful that dollar weakness will throw their weak economies back into recession, have been pushing the U.S. to engage in coordinated intervention to reverse the speculative positions of the dollar bears. The U.S. has refused. As a consequence anger is rising among these policy makers and it is spreading to encompass the likes of China and other emerging economies. We are hearing strong and angry language on this issue from the U.S.’s trading partners like we have not heard for many many years. Efforts are now being made by these countries toward a very broad coordinated intervention that may exclude the U.S. but may encompass China and many others.

Will such intervention work? The speculators who are short the dollar say no. But the historical record says otherwise. When speculation and the dollar are at extremes intervention works. It turned the dollar down on March 1st, 1985 – the day of the dollar high. It turned the yen down against the dollar on the yen high in 1995. It set in motion the big dollar rally in 1996.

Why does intervention sometimes work? Because speculative bandwagons displace currencies from their short run economically determined equilibria. Speculators are trend followers. If their positions are extreme, intervention, by changing the price trend, can cause speculators to unwind positions en masse.

Speculators in today’s markets are more short term momentum oriented than in the past. Hedge funds are judged by monthly returns. That is why we see so many charts in which prices follow a trend in a very narrow channel. But, once that trend is broken a crash ensues. Look back at those charts of silver, copper, and oil.

If intervention in the currency markets comes and it is successful, even for a while, the odds are that gold, which is itself in such a narrow channel, will break hard. This should not be hard to imagine, as it happened a mere eight months ago.

Conclusion

There is a growing body of evidence – both technical and fundamental – that the gold equities are rolling over and that gold the metal may correct. The latter will, of course, pull down the former.

The key is the disappearing dollar. Years ago when gold was making its multi year bottom and I wrote the Gold Book everyone to a man was positive on the U.S. tech miracle and the dollar. Gold as an asset was universally consigned to the dust bin of history. Today there is a similar universal consensus that is bearish the dollar and bullish gold.

But careful analysis suggests that, whatever the long run outcome for the dollar, it could have a significant rally off multi decade chart support. Even famous dollar bears concede this. Given the ominous technical pattern of gold equities a perfectly typical correction in a gold bull market could create very large price declines in illiquid gold shares.

What would I recommend to you? In our gold certificate program we have reviewed the evidence and are very cautious. We have kept a large Euro cash position. Recently it has outperformed gold shares in euros and is far safer and liquid. We are poised to hedge our certificate index against any significant downside break in gold’s relentless but very narrow uptrending channel.

We are not dogmatic on this point, however. We understand the potential for a greater dollar decline and a catch up move by the gold shares. If the dollar index breaks long term chart support at 80, that could occur. If we judge that will be the case we will increase our gold equity exposure. But markets are all about probabilities, and the probability of a significant perfectly typical correction in the long term bull market that we envision is also significant, so we must exercise some caution and be willing to hedge in order to keep our index intact for a better day.

Is there anything else that would change our position? Yes. In our view the large cap gold shares are fully valued to overvalued on a net asset value basis. More importantly, we regard many of them as wasting assets. Production is depleting their reserves and many of them cannot find new deposits to replace their production. The junior golds have deposits and they are valued cheaply by the marketplace. Because the juniors are cash constrained their deposits tend to have large growth potential. At some point the majors will move to acquire the juniors. That is what we are hoping for. But so far the majors have been restrained. When they eventually do move the juniors will be revalued upward en masse. We are ever watchful for this eventual positive development.

For you the audience I can only recommend what we ourselves do as investors in our certificate program we have deeply undervalued small cap gold shares. That is where the value is in the gold sector. One can buy today huge numbers of ounces cheap. But the junior gold sector has always been an inefficient and volatile market, and it is even more so today. One cannot prudently manage this risky sector without an eye to risk of serious loss and there is clearly a threat of that at the present time.

Rishi-Giri

24.12.2004, 13:18

Hallo Zusammen

Am 29.11.04 war ich aus verschiedenen Gründen (siehe Posting) der Meinung, dass der Dollar spätestens bei USD/CHF 1.11 drehen und kurzfristig steigen würde.

Da der Dollar aber sogar bereits bei 1.13 gedreht hat und im Index die 80 nicht testen konnte, war die Erholung sehr bescheiden (von 1.13 bis 1.17).

Ein Fehlstart sozusagen: ein Rumgegurke im Dreieck, welches nun scheinbar gegen unten aufgelöst wird (die 1.1440 sind zumindest durch).

Kurzfristig bin ich deshalb der Meinung, dass wir (mindestens) die 1.11 sehen müssen bevor es losgehen kann.
Obwohl ich davon ausgehe, dass diese halten werden, schliesse ich ein paar weitere Rappen Verlust nicht ganz aus.

An meinem groben Szenario ändert sich dadurch nichts: schon bald eine Dollar-Rallye und eine (ziemlich heftige) Goldkorrektur.
Dann hingegen (etwa ab Sommer /Herbst 2005) Hyperinflation und explodierendes Gold.

:) :) :) :) :) :) Frohe Weihnachten ! :) :) :) :) :) :)

_SL_

25.12.2004, 16:32

ich glaube, da wird bei gold + silber 2005 nix explodieren!
erst in paar jahren wird der große anstieg kommen (2007 oder später).
minen laufen aber vor...

erstemal sind andere rohstoffe dran, wie vielleicht palladium.., weizen.., corn.., öl.., usw..!!

vielleicht gehts jetzt auch wirklich noch 5 jahre runter oder seitwärts bei gold.. :a

na dann...

Vetinari

13.01.2005, 13:09

Rick Ackerman ...

Gold Correction Isn't Over Yet

News of November’s record-breaking trade deficit sent the dollar tumbling yesterday, but don’t be surprised if investors take leave of their senses soon again and the dollar resumes its bear rally. Until Wednesday, the buck was having a pretty good year, actually, with a gain of nearly 5% against the euro. It’s a dead-cat bounce, to be sure, but the cat was acting as though it was about to receive new life from dollar shorts grown increasingly nervous about being on the wrong side of easy money.

However, if a short-squeeze was indeed percolating, word of a record $60-billion trade deficit for the month of November put a lid on it, at least for the moment. This means that goldbugs who celebrated yesterday’s bounce in precious metals may have been somewhat premature. I’ve reproduced a chart of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index immediately below that shows why. The XAU, which ended the day at 95.05, has a downside target at 86.46 -- about 10% below current levels -- that looks likely to be achieved.

http://www.rickackerman.com/charts/thumbs/12thJan20050841pm.jpg

Grosse Bild ... http://www.rickackerman.com/charts/12thJan20050841pm.jpg

Three Reasons

There are three reasons for this, all of which derive from hidden-pivot rules. First, the A-B impulse leg that in December initiated the current bear cycle was clean and decisive, breaching two prior lows without an upward correction of more than a day. The leg is shown in yellow and extends from 110.76 to 95.93. A second bearish sign is that the midpoint of the prospective C-D leg, 93.89, was breached without generating a discernible bounce. And third, stochastic lows made, respectively, in early December and early January correlate with descending price lows. This non-divergent pattern suggest the trend that produced it – i.e., the downtrend – will continue.

http://www.rickackerman.com/217.html

:gusa

Rishi-Giri

22.01.2005, 10:36

Is the $60.3 billion November trade deficit now "paid for" as recent foreign capital-inflow numbers ($81 billion) suggest? Is the dollar's bear market over? Are we in a gold-holding pattern again?

The Dollar: Turning on a Dime

Without any change in fundamentals or even news about exchange rates the dollar turned on a dime as soon as the new year hit. On Friday, December 31, the dollar still fell to an all time low of 1.36 to the euro. On Monday, January 3, the rebound started without any advance notice whatsoever.

What caused that?

Manipulation? Investor psychology? A technical rebound? An "oversold condition"? Which is it?

Forex news reports cited all of the above in one instance or another, but what was the real reason? Are there any "real reasons" for anything anymore in financial-land?

We got a sudden repeat performance of the 2003 dollar collapse during September last year without any fundamental change in financial news or economic outlook from the earlier month dollar rebound and gold stagnation period. Now we get a sudden change back to the dollar-upside without any fundamental change in outlook. Fed rates had been rising and had been expected to rise further throughout the September-December dollar collapse, but as soon as New Years Eve revelers had slept off their hangovers, the dollar began to climb again.

Where are these things coming from? What is happening?

Who cares anymore? There's only one thing that seems to be certain: when the dollar is falling, the Dow goes up. When the dollar stabilizes, the Dow stagnates. When the dollar rises, the Dow falls.

Such has been the case since September 2003 with mind-boggling accuracy - and such is still the case now. The dollar-Dow inversion is alive and well, and is best depicted by looking at a chart showing the Dow and the dollar's main "foe": the euro:

http://www.safehaven.com/images/wallenwein/2488_a.gif Why does this happen?

The ordinary thinking goes that a low dollar is good for US exporting companies because their products become less expensive abroad. But the effects of this usually lag by at least a matter of months, if not an entire year or longer. So, how come there is this uncanny, almost instantaneous inverse relationship? What accounts for that?

There are no textbooks on this subject. You will find nothing online or in your local library. Ask your College economics professor, and he will be stumped for an answer. So, what's up?

Since September 2003, it almost appears as if the dollar now has the same adverse relationship to the Dow as it has to gold itself. Why is that so? What changed from before 9/03?

If so, what does that say about the current stock rebound? Is it just a reflection of the falling dollar, and no more? If this is so, then investors in US stocks should take note: if they are still skeptical of gold because the current gold-bull is "just the shadow of the falling dollar", then their cherished Dow Jones average has recently fared no better.

Here is another thought: what does that say about the confidence foreign investors have in US stocks? If they only buy them when the cheaper dollar makes them more affordable, then a stronger dollar becomes an economic no-no for US policy makers. If this is the perception of US markets, the US cannot afford a strong dollar policy any longer, any comments from the administration through it's snowy mouthpiece notwithstanding.

If this is true, then the situation we face also instructs us that the dollar has become adverse to even the confounded, rigged, and artificial representation of economic value we all call "the US stock markets." In short: the dollar is now absolutely value-adverse. An increase in the price of anything that has any kind of value to Americans now has to be purchased at the expense of a falling dollar!

The evidence appears striking. There seem to be no two ways about it. It's not so much that a strong dollar is bad for US assets, as it is that only a weak dollar can induce foreign investment in US or dollar-denominated assets anymore.

Or, seen the other way around: if higher prices for US assets can only be bought at the expense of a lower dollar, then we simply have a wash. We are treading water. We are going nowhere. The only thing we have is an illusion of an increase in the value of US assets tailor made for the domestic US population.

At least one thing still remains of the old pillars of economic reality: There is at least that one perception of "value" left in investors' minds. At least they still do buy US assets (or dollar-denominated assets) when the dollar tanks. If and when that ever stops, if and when the international estimation of the value of US assets sinks so low that they won't even consider buying them when they are cheap, that is going to be the day when US economic supremacy is simply over.

How does all of this jibe with today's report of the huge November rise in net foreign investment?

It jibes perfectly.

Even if the figures are correct and not skewed at all, the dollar-Dow scenario explains perfectly why foreign investment has increased so much. Look how the Dow shot up after the election. Look how the dollar dived during the same time. If foreigners are simply scavenging for cheap US assets, then this points to one sad but undeniable truth: they will only continue to do so when the dollar is falling, making US assets cheaper for them.

At this point, it's time to make a prediction: If this explanation is correct, then the December TIC figures to be released in February should show a far lower net increase in foreign capital inflows. And if the dollar keeps climbing during January and boasts a significant increase at the end of the month, then we should see a reversal of net inflows during January when those figures are released in March.

Now, if this scenario holds true, then how far can the dollar rise?

Better question: how far can the dollar-faction afford to let the Dow to fall (as a result of the rising dollar) before foreigners will jump off the train and look elsewhere for bargains? A rebounding dollar will act like insect-repellant for foreign investors. They simply won't go anywhere near US assets if a rising dollar makes these assets smell bad' (more expensive) to them.

And that means that the trade deficit will continue to loom large on the investment horizon, no matter what these (now no longer so surprising) capital inflow figures showed in November. Only a seriously falling dollar can attract enough foreign investment to "pay" for the US trade deficit. That means a rising dollar will simply crush the US equities markets.

There is another possible explanation for this upward explosion in foreign asset inflows:

I have seen people talking about covert US Fed buying of longer term treasuries to keep long rates manageable so that consumers won't get scared out of their pants by the two-prong pinchers of rising US prices and the rising cost of debt-repayments. Some astute analysts have observed that there is a lot of activity in the bond market coming out of the Caribbean money centers. These same traders have observed that an unidentified but huge entity acting through the Caribbean money centers keeps coming in to buy treasuries as soon as a sell-off begins to develop. Could that be the Fed?

Is it possible that the Fed is making good on Bernanke's threat and is buying long term treasuries? Are those the "foreign investment inflows" we have been told about today so boisterously? Here is a snippet from a Reuters article of today:

Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York, reckoned however that much of November's asset inflow was speculative, given an increase in investments from Caribbean money center banks. These banks are known to be financing channels for most hedge funds, which have become major players in the daily $1.3 trillion turnover of the global foreign exchange market.

Looks like they may also be financing channels for the US Fed.

A rising dollar's seemingly inevitable negative effect on the Dow will force US insiders to do whatever they need to do to prop up their beloved stock-market con game. As the Dow goes, so goes investor psychology. When the Dow finally folds, we will get Prechter's predicted (but so far not occurring) deflation scenario. Individuals and businesses will pull in their horns. Credit will contract, not because rates are high but because everybody gets scared. Then, the Fed may be forced to reverse course and drop its interest-rate pants again, exposing the nakedness underneath for all the world to see.

But the above still doesn't explain why the dollar turned on a dime in the new year.

What we have witnessed so far does not appear to be a major dollar support action by anyone - unless it's an act of covert dollar-buying by the ECB and/or euro-zone member nations. If I were to go way out on a limb I'd say that, just as the US is trying to undermine the euro by dropping the dollar too far too fast, the euro-members may have figured out they can "mess" with the US by covert dollar-support. In doing so, they can apply a fair amount of pressure on the Dow, as is evident from this chart:

Funny world, isn't it, where nations and power-blocs now appear to try and hurt each other by supporting the opponent's currency?!!!

But it doesn't have to be covert EU dollar-support that drove this reversal. It may very well be that Japan is finally acquiescing to longstanding EU demands to stop selling yen to buy dollars, which in the past forced the euro to take the brunt of the ongoing dollar-depreciation.

http://www.safehaven.com/images/wallenwein/2488_b.gif It is too early to tell whether this represents a definitive policy shift by the Japanese, but it is interesting to note that, although the dollar bounced against both the euro and the yen in early January, its bounce against the euro has been sustained and continues, while it fell back against the yen to levels that are now lower than they were at the beginning of the bounce. And that despite the lift it got from the foreign capital inflows data.

So, is gold "on hold" again? Yes, for the time being - but that's a good thing if you are consistently buying and saving gold (as the Chinese and other Asians do) to align yourself with the coming changes in the world monetary system. Those changes are detailed only in the Euro vs Dollar Currency War Monitor (http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar2.html).

If you are only trading gold or gold shares for paper-profits, your long-term priorities may be a bit off. If you end up selling gold in the face of a sustained rise in the dollar, you will be doing those who truly save gold a huge favor. They'll be glad to buy it from you - for even less paper cash than it takes to do that now!

Got gold?

Alex Wallenwein
Editor, Publisher
The Euro vs Dollar Currency War Monitor (http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.html)

Rishi-Giri

28.01.2005, 22:58

Hallo,

ein kleines Update zu meiner Einschätzung vom 24.12.04.

Wie wir alle wissen hat sich der Dollar wieder geweigert zum CHF die 1.11 testen zu gehen (vor allem im Index die 80). Er hat einen kleinen Doppelboden bei 1.13 gebildet und ist dann bereits nach oben abgedreht. Jetzt stehen wir nach mühsamer Übung bei 1.19 und das ganze schaut in meinen Augen überhaupt nicht überzeugend aus.

Ich bin der Meinung, dass im Normalfall weder ein saftiges Bärenmarktrallye noch ein nachhaltiger Bullenmarkt auf so eine trostlose Art und Weise entstehen (kein Final Sell-Off, kein testen von wichtigen Marken, keine geordneten Impulse, von Good News bei den Fundamentaldaten gar nicht erst zu sprechen).

Das scheint mir ehrlich gesagt eher eine Bullenfalle für naive Neujahrsinvestoren, um mit frischen Milliarden das marode Gebäude zu stützen.

Die Banken sagen zwar (fast) Alle Hold oder Buy USD, aber die Papiere die Sie emittieren (z.B. Optionsprämienverhältnis Call/Put) sprechen meistens eine andere Sprache.

Amerikas ungleichgewichte werden immer krasser, werden aber plötzlich totgeschwiegen.

Washington fährt nicht ans WEF sondern plant (diesmal wohl im Alleingang) bereits den nächsten Horrorkrieg.

Mein grobes Szenario sah eigentlich eine Dollar Rallye in der ersten Jahreshälfte und die Fortsetzung des Goldtrends in der zweiten Jahreshälfte.

So wie sich in den letzten Wochen aber die ganze Konstellation entwickelt, scheint es wohl eher genau andersrum zu kommen.

Die Lage ist offen und spannend – sie erfordert erhöhte Wachsamkeit.

Vetinari

07.02.2005, 20:10

Interessant uber Gold COTS und markt ...

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/articles/comiitmentxau.gif

One thing I watch very carefully is what the commercial futures traders are doing. They have been very deft at timing tops and bottoms in the gold market. At each top commercial futures traders have been heavily short and during each correction they have covered their positions. The chart above shows you the size of their short position over their long position at every major bottom gold has made over the past few years.

You can see that usually the commercial futures traders have 40k-60k more short positions than they do long positions at major gold bottoms.

Since December they have been slowly covering their positions and as of January 25, the commercials have 100,000 more short positions than long positions. These commitment of traders reports are delayed, but if gold makes another drop down then the commercials should have completed their short covering.

ganze ... http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/goldarticle013105.htm

So , am 25/01 wert war immer 100K ... letzte COTS es war bei 85K (glaube er redet von Futures und Options , nicht nur Futures) ... noch ein bischen mehr runter und wir sind beinah da :D

:gusa

robbyredford

26.02.2005, 16:07

m.e. stehen im minen- bzw. rohstoffbereich vor weitere stärkere upbewegungen.
interessant, die beachtliche volumen-/umsatzzunahme in den aktien ab dem jahr ca. 2001.
hier eine kl. auswahl:

folgende stehten knapp unter alltimehigh und kurz vor dem ausbruch zu neuen höhen:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/p/paas.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/g/glg.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/m/mdg.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/a/au.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/n/nem.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/s/ssri.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/2y/w/wtz.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/f/fcx.gif
der wohl gr. wert aus diesem bereich:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/a/abx.gif

hier scheint viel nachholbedarf zu sein:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/c/cde.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/h/hl.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/i/ivn.to.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/b/bgo.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/g/grz.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/k/kgc.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/l/lihry.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/g/gold.gif
diese gerade mit ausbruch aus flagge:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/r/rgld.gif

ein alter bekanter, kz in den nä. jahren >30 usd ?
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/g/gfi.gif
der im vergleich hierzu wohl eindeutig vorzuziehen ist:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/h/hmy.gif

das nicht alles gold ist, was glänzt, sieht man aber auch hier:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/2y/g/gbn.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/g/gg.gif

hier 2 heiße zocks:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/v/vgz.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/b/bgs.v.gif

interessante links zu mehr als 500 weiteren minen
, sowas hab ich immer gesucht:
http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=silver&t=S&m=US
http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=GOLD&t=S&m=US

und zum abschluß mal ein blick in den bereich öl,
hier handelt es sich immerhin um eine firma, mit einer marktkapitalisierung von >400mrd-usd!:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/x/xom.gif
wie verrückt die letzten wochen sind, sieht man besser im kürzeren 5-jahreschart.
mir scheint, die entwicklung hie rist noch lange nicht zu ende
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/x/xom.gif

Rishi-Giri

01.03.2005, 21:24

http://www.refconews.com/main/20MostInfluentialPeopleinFXRefco.pdf

:bang: :bang:

Rishi-Giri

26.05.2005, 11:10

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=1158

Interessanter Artikel.
Wer mehr weiss soll sich äussern...
;) :confused: ;) :confused: ;) :confused:

Rishi-Giri

02.10.2005, 12:21

Auf einen 5 bis 10 Jahres Horizont bin ich immer noch der Meinung: Rohstoffe und Edelmetalle werden zu Werterhaltungsmitteln, der Dollar klappt zusammen.

Was aber kurzfristig?

Ich könnte mit vorstellen, dass wir im letzten Quartal 2005 bei USD/CHF und Gold (… welche ja in jüngster Zeit positiv zueinander korrelieren….) abgaben sehen (USD/CHF auf etwa 1.21/1.22, beim Gold schwieriger zu sagen), was natürlich erst Recht Abgaben im Goldpreis in CHF bedeuten würde.

Bei USD/CHF würde ich diese Bewegung dann als Welle b einer abc Korrektur im Langfristchart betrachten, mit dem Ziel Kraft zu holen beim Schlüsselsupport 1.215, eine Fette Bärenfalle aufzubauen und das Jahr 2006 psychologisch geschickt mit der Fortsetzung der Dollar-Rally zu beginnen.

(Natürlich ist es denkbar, dass wir im USD/CHF bereits in den nächsten paar Monaten die 1.35/1.40 sehen, was insofern von Vorteil wäre, dass man auf diesem Niveau relativ ruhig den Dollar shorten kann was das Zeug hält).

Zurück aber zum subtileren Szenario. So per Neujahr würde man dann mit den üblichen Halbwarheiten und im besten Fall noch mit Hilfe eines Short Squeezes den Dollar hochpushen. Das wäre dann die c Welle der Korrektur mit Ziel 1.35/1.40, was sich mit den Kurszielen einiger Bankhäuser, insb. dem nicht schlechten Outlook der Commerzbank deckt.

Ein solches Kursniveau erlaubt es Dollars in grossem Stil zu verkaufen und würde immerhin ein nicht allzu tiefes Startniveau für den anschliessenden Dollarkollaps darstellen.

Beim GOLD könnte unterdessen folgendes passieren: einen langsamen aber stetigen Abbau der Kurse mit dem Ziel die Goldinvestoren zu verunsichern und zu zermürben.

Die Botschaft wäre dann in etwa diese: „Wir hatten fünf schwierige Jahre, fünf unsichere Jahre. Ihr habt mit euren Goldinvestitionen gutes Geld verdient. Das internationale Finanzsystem ist aber heute immer noch stabil. Die Notenbanken dieser Welt kooperieren (neue Goldverkäufe?). Der Weltwirtschaft geht es besser als auch schon in letzter Zeit. Japan ist am kommen, andere Länder sind am kommen. Sogar der Ölpreis ist leicht gesunken! Die Inflation ist unter Kontrolle. Das FED hat wieder die Zinsen erhöht. Wo ist das Problem? Der Goldmarkt ist das Problem! Er ist überbewertet! Wir haben eine Gold-Blase! Die Party ist vorbei – verkauft euer Gold!

Wenn also USD/CHF bei absurden 1.35/1.40 steht und/oder die Goldpreise eingebrochen sind und das Gold schlecht geredet wird und /oder es wirklich los geht mit der richtig fetten Inflation (laut den Geldmengenzahlen M3 geht das so oder so nicht mehr lange so weiter), dann sollte man wissen was man zu tun hat!

Ich vermute jedoch, dass wird erst 2006 der Fall sein.

Fürs letzte Quartal 2005 würde ich unterdessen 100% Cash halten, Rotwein trinken und den „Endkampf“ zwischen den Anhängern von echtem Geld und denen von Fake-Money aus der Ferne betrachten.

Rishi-Giri

Antwortpostings egal mit welcher Meinung würden mich freuen!

mama mia

12.03.2006, 11:34

Kann man diesen thread wieder beleben :confused :cool :kiss wäre schön :supi dohanics Du wärst eine grosse Hilfe dabei - besonders längere Artikel könnte man hier in Ruhe und hoffentlich ohne Gifteleien unterbringen ;) Links kann/soll man trotzdem im daily schreiben, hier wäre einfach ein Plätzchen für die ewigen "Sonnen- und Mondkinder" :)

...was ist eigentlich aus Dir - Rishi-Girl - geworden :confused schreibst Du noch :confused ev. anderer Name :confused

mama mia

12.03.2006, 12:08

GFMS Disputes CPM Group's Silver Stats

By Jon A. Nones
10 Mar 2006 at 12:58 PM EST

St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17783)) -- Now that the public comment period has ended at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for Barclays’ proposed silver ETF, many analysts are busy putting in their two cents. Some say it will pass (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=16629), some say it won’t (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17752), some say it should (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17226), some say it shouldn’t (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17121). Yet, only a few analysts have made light of CPM Group’s letter to SEC (http://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/amex/amex2005072/amex2005072-195.pdf) in January concerning silver stock inventories. Herein is a look at the letter and a response from a “London gold market research company.”

On January 31, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group had a meeting (http://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/amex/amex2005072/memo013106.pdf) with Brian Trackman, Rahman Harrison and Florence Harmon of the SEC to discuss “the effects that approval of the Barclay's Silver Shares proposal would have on the commodities pricing of silver bullion.” One day before, CPM group submitted the following letter.

if(typeof TrackBanner!="undefined") TrackBanner("B74AF084-1225-4F2A-B420-48F88FED9BA9");
“One of the misunderstandings common in the silver market is that there are hundreds of millions of ounces of silver in inventories in London and Zurich. There is not nearly that much. There may be between 75 and 100 million ounces in these bank vaults as of early 2006,” the letter begins.

This number excludes the silver purchased by Berkshire Hathaway in 1988 - estimated to total between 100 and 129 million ounces still held today, according to the letter.

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group told Resource Investor that the market has about 500 million ounces of silver total. After confirming the amounts mentioned above, Christian estimated there to be roughly 130 million ounces of silver held by Comex. So by using these calculations, it would appear that “silver is in fact rather tight,” said Christian.

The letter also notes that “a misunderstanding about how much silver exists in London and Zurich bank vaults developed in 1995 when a London gold market research company began research on silver.”

According to the letter, the research company asked London banks how much silver was in their books instead of how much silver was in their vaults. The bankers then submitted the numbers in their books, leading the company to conclude that there were “enormous amounts of silver” in London bank vaults.

“It is not clear whether this research company ever became aware of its error and the origins of this inaccurate information, but for whatever reason the company has chosen not to correct its data, and has based future estimates on changes from this initial estimate,” according to the letter.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/Silver%20Europe%20vaults.png Source: World Silver Survey 2005

So, RI contacted the London-based gold market research company GFMS concerning their research on the silver market in response to the letter.

“Our survey of stocks in European dealers' is, and has always been, conducted on the basis of the quantity of silver bullion physically contained in the vaults operated by participants in the survey,” said Philip Klapwijk, Chairman of GFMS.

According to the company’s World Silver Survey 2005, there was approximately 617 million ounces of silver bullion in the market in 2004.

The survey breaks down the numbers to equal 332 million ounces of silver with European dealers, 104 million ounces with Comex, 164 million ounces in government holdings and 17 million ounces with others representing Tocom, Chicago Board of Trade and Japanese trade stocks.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/Identifiable%20silver%20bullion%20table.png Source: World Silver Survey 2005

According to the report, total identifiable bullion fell by 85.2 million ounces in 2004. However, GFMS notes in the study that there are many private owners that hold unidentifiable stocks. And it is possible “that much of the bullion that was held by identifiable sources found its way into non-identifiable stock.”

In addition, Klapwijk told RI that the ‘there are no stocks left’ crowd should look at silver leasing rates, the percentage owed to the lender by the borrower.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/Identifiable%20silver%20bullion.png Source: World Silver Survey 2005

The annual average lease rates in 2004 varied sharply, according to the survey. The average three-month rate fell by just over 60% to a very weak 0.10%, while the six-month rate remained flat at 0.41% and yet the 12-month average rate rose to 0.92%.

However, GFMS notes that “even this rate is still low historically.”

“In 2005 as a whole, three-month silver leasing rates averaged a little under 0.5% - hardly indicative of a shortage!” Klapwijk said.

Leasing rates have risen of late due to heavy borrowing on expectations that the ETF could indirectly cause a substantial spike in rates, admitted Klapwijk. Also, over a longer period of time, rates have firmed somewhat as bullion stocks are not as abundant as they once used to be. But, this reduction in stocks needs to be put in perspective, he said.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/Silver%20Leasing%20Rates.png Source: World Silver Survey 2005

“Compare that to platinum where bullion stocks really are very tight, with this tightness reflected in persistently very high borrowing costs - not just in the occasional spike in rates,” added Klapwijk.

Christian said his comments in the letter were not meant to incriminate a specific company, but mainly used to make a point “that the market is incredibly opaque.”

“I’m basically a free market person,” he said. “If investors want to buy physical silver and Barclays’ want to give the market this product, then I’m all for it.” However, the market “needs to have some breaks and regulations,” he concluded.

Klapwijk reiteratedthat stocks remain well in excess of the levels claimed by certain analysts.

“The ‘we’re running out of silver’ crowd needs a reality check,” Klapwijk said.

May silver fell 1 cent to close at $9.96 an ounce on Friday, 2.7% below last Friday's close of $10.235.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17783
(http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17783#)

mama mia

14.03.2006, 12:05

Gold Action #416

Dr. Clive Roffey
March 13, 2006

What a week!! A gold share sell off so typical of the Elliott final collapse wave in a classic a-b-c correction. But this is NOT the end of the run. It is merely the second correction since the market low in June 2005. It is the 3-4 move out of the five wave format and there is still the substantial fifth wave upside leg to come. In addition the gold index has mapped out a classic flag pattern that is a BULLISH pattern. So all is not lost. It is just the end of a sharp correction.

I must reiterate that I have continually detailed that wave I of the JSE Gold index topped out in 2002 and corrected in wave II to May 2005 to give the first major I-II correction. In May 2002 it reversed into the big wave III that MUST go well above the top of wave I in 2002. The corrective wave of this week was merely the final sell off in a correction en route to the top of wave III. It was not the end of the bull market.

But the interesting aspect of the recent correction is the shapes that have formed during its progress. The full correction has traded inside a classic flag pattern of two parallel channel lines. But in addition there are flat top broadening patterns coupled with falling wedges. All these patterns are BULLISH and point to a very sharp trend reversal back into a new bull phase. In other words it is time to load up with gold shares for a major ride.

For the past few months I have been detailing that the Rand should weaken back to around R6.35. It remained churning around the R6.05 level and never looked like breaking. Suddenly last week it shot up to R6.35. Where to now? There remains the potential for further short term weakness to R6.50.

I have had to spend some time researching gold production and relationships to price movement for several presentations on the gold market. There are some surprising statistics in this data that throw considerable light on the movement of gold shares on the JSE over the past few years.

The fundamentals remain rock solid for a large move in the gold price based on falling global production combined with sharply rising Far East demand in addition to an increasing distrust of the dollar as an investment currency. Sure the gold market is going to have sharp corrections. It is the nature of the yellow metal to move from buying euphoria into selling stupidity in a matter of days. Traditionally it keeps you hanging on by your finger nails before it changes course. But it does not matter. We are into the big wave III that must go above the tops of wave I in 2002. So that any short term sharp correction is just another superb buying area, not a panic selling one.

The sell off hit all the commodities based on a sudden rise in interest rates in the US that theoretically should strengthen the dollar. I have news for you. Technically, interest rates in the US will certainly rise but the bullish effect on the dollar will be negligible. Rising interest rates implies falling bond and equity markets as well as inflation. But the problem will arise in terms of Japanese and Chinese investment in bonds. Will they be happy to see their US investment capital eroded??

At this point of time all the commodities have been doing the same intermediate correction in an ongoing bull market. So it is also buying time for oil and other metals as well as the precious metal sector, as well as the shares in these commodities.

Global gold shares are a superb buy whilst the other general equities continue to machinate in sideways moves.

I must reiterate for the doubters that we are looking at a major long term bull market in gold with the current level being a superb short term and investment buying opportunity.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey031306/1.gifElliott bull trends moves in five waves. There are corrections at 1-2 and 3-4 before the final fifth wave into the top of the bull trend.

Often wave 3 can be longer than the rest and also sub divide into five smaller waves as detailed by the blue numbers.

But there are two key points to note. First the correction from 3 to 4 will be larger than any of the blue sub-wave corrections and it will wipe out the whole of the last move in the blue five wave format. Also note that there is often a channel formation in wave 3 shown in red.

Apply this to Harmony, and all the other gold shares, there is a perfect fit.

The wave 3 sub-divided into a smaller channel and wave 4 has wiped out the whole of the fifth wave inside this sub division. The RSI reflects the Elliott breakdown of the wave pattern.

Note that the RSI during the recent price fall has moved below its previous lows but that the price has not confirmed. This is a classic example of a reverse divergence trend reversal back into a bull trend. In addition Harmony has mapped out a falling wedge formation that implies a very sharp trend reversal. The bottom line is that we are at the end of wave 4 and ready for a move back into a major bull trend to take Harmony up into wave five.

In addition I have shown the bottom of the huge wave II in May 2005. The next upside move MUST take the price of the gold shares and the JSE Gold index well above the top of wave I in 2002. There is a lot further upside to come in this gold market.

Also note that the recent high on Harmony made at the end of January was also reflected on the RSI as it also went through to a new high. This signifies a stable bull trend and there is no sign of any sell divergence.

This remains a major BULL Market in gold stocks and corrections such as last week are ideal buying areas for traders and investors alike.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey031306/2.gif Global gold production is the feint red line. There is a clear cyclical movement to this chart in which a 20 year increase is followed by a 10 year fall. The last production increase ended in 2002. The 1930's increase was due to labour costs falling during the depression and mines producing more gold at a fixed price. Again in the 1950's there was an increase in production due to the fixed price at $35 forcing the mines to produce more gold to make profits. Since then there has been a totally different story that is told when we apply the dollar gold price to this chart. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey031306/3.gif The annual global gold production rocketed from1200 metric tonnes in 1980 to 2600 metric tonnes in 2000.

But the interesting aspect of this data is the relationship between the gold production in the top chart and the gold price in the bottom frame. Once Nixon had freed up the gold market the price rose to its 1980 peak of $850. During this period gold production fell. There is a very good reason for this. During periods of price rises the mines tend to develop the lower grade areas and leave the higher grades for times of price weakness. When the price collapsed from $850 to $252 there was a huge doubling of production. But despite this production increase the relative earnings of the mines halved during this period as the fall in price wiped out the extra production. Since the price rise from $252 there has been a reversal to falling production. So apart from the established 20 year boom bust production cycle there is also an inverse relationship between the gold price and production. This implies falling production going forward.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey031306/4.gif The most bullish fundamental for gold must be the accelerating demand from the Far East where jewelry from India and investment demand from Japan and China are growing at an exponential rate. The economic growth of China at 9% per annum is projected to remain well above 8% for the next decade. But this is not the key figure. Gold is consumed by a growing middle class and my professional analysis indicates that Chinese society is expanding at greater than 20% per annum. China is the world's largest consumer of meat, oil seeds, fruit, vegetables and rice as well as being the largest producer and consumer of lead, tin and zinc, in addition to the largest metal consumer of steel, aluminium, nickel, copper and also rubber, cotton, wool, and cement.

The enormous size of this market is highlighted when one realizes that there are more cell phones in China than the population in the US. Three years ago China freed trading in gold and the Shanghai Gold Exchange is into boom times. Couple this with the fact that China has increased its gold reserves from 350 tonnes to 600 tonnes whilst the UK has halved. There are already internal political rumblings for China to substantially increase its reserves in order to protect against any demise of the dollar. A global scenario is developing in which there is a growing demand coupled with a potential for falling production.

According to the reports of leading industrialists that have plants in China they ship 65% of production back to the US. By 2012 this will have reversed with China consuming 65% of their production and by 2015 china will be totally self sufficient. China will not have to rely on exports going forward to sustain growth.

Forget the economics. This is a numbers game.

When falling production, growing demand, increasing distrust of the dollar and gold outperforming equities is considered there is a considerably bullish outlook for gold.

This is all well and good for global gold prospects but what about the local South African situation? In contrast to the 1980 to 2000 boom in global gold production South Africa's production fell from 680 000 kilos to 320 000 kilos. Combining this huge fall in production with a dollar gold price drop from $850 to $252 over the same period should have resulted in all the local gold mines closing. They didn't, primarily due to a weak currency that quadrupled the Rand price of gold.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey031306/5.gif The devastating period was from 2002 to 2005 when production continued to fall coupled to a serious fall in the Rand price of gold. This led to a panic in the press as they queued up to knock the mines in early 2005 on the basis that they were all going to close. Suddenly the price reversed and is back up to its previous high ground and according to my work likely to move much higher than the current R3500 an ounce.

Even so the current Rand price of gold has only resulted in just above breakeven conditions. For the local gold industry to prosper a significant further appreciation in the Rand price of gold is required. My data indicates that the Rand price of gold should continue to rise well above its previous R3800 an ounce high in 2001 and probably to at least R5 400 per ounce within the next few years based on a rising dollar price of gold and stable to weaker Rand. This would give a relative value of R175 000 a kilo. Considering that the gold mining industry is at least breaking even at the current Rand value of R105 000 a kilo such a five year price bonanza would lead, after adjusting for costs, to a significant increase in not only mine earnings but also a nominal increase in local mining production.

Apart from the short corrective periods the gold price has outperformed all leading global equity markets since 2000 as well as out performing all the leading currencies including the investment stalwart Swiss Franc. This clearly shows a trend away from equities as an automatic investment as well as a growing distrust of both the dollar and Swiss franc as investment currencies. A decade ago it was a knee jerk reaction to fly into the dollar in time of Middle Eastern crisis. Not any more.

Couple rising demand with falling production and sweeten it with a distrust of the dollar as an investment currency and the fact that bullion is outperforming all the leading equity markets and you have prime conditions for a continued long term gold bull market.

March 10, 2006
Dr. Clive Roffey
Johannesburg
South Africa
email: info@utm.co.za

"Gold Action" is a fortnightly commentary on global gold and precious metal markets produced by Dr. Clive Roffey, Johannesburg, South Africa, a leading professional independent commentator on gold markets since 1969.

'Gold & Silver Penny Stocks' is the sister publication to 'Gold Action' and is produced by Dr. Clive Roffey at croffey@mweb.co.za

mama mia

15.03.2006, 09:33

...bin mir nicht sicher ob hier der richtige Platz dafür ist - na ja trotzdem :rolleyes

Starke Nachfrage läßt den Uranpreis nach oben schießen

Die Atomenergie erlebt eine Renaissance - Das Metall zur Produktion von Kernbrennstäben reicht kaum noch aus - Spekulanten nehmen Überschüsse vom Markt

London - Die Renaissance der Kernenergie zeigt sich am deutlichsten am Uran-Markt. Die Preisentwicklung des radioaktiven Metalls hat die anderen Metalle im Jahr 2005 überflügelt und gute Aussichten, das in diesem Jahr erneut zu schaffen. In den nächsten sechs Monaten sollte der Uranpreis um 27 Prozent auf 50 Dollar (41,87 Euro) je Pfund anziehen, erwartet Fondsmanager Jean-Francois Tardif von Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund und begründet: "Es ist nicht viel Uran verfügbar." Auch bei anderen Vermögensverwaltern ist Uran als Kapitalanlage populär. Wellington Management in Boston erhöhte seine Beteiligung an der kanadischen Cameco Corporation, dem weltgrößten Uran-Förderer.

Die Anglikanische Kirche in Sydney nahm Uran im letzten Jahr von ihrer Liste unethischer Anlageformen. Das zahlte sich aus: Ihre Fonds profitierten 2005 von einem Kursanstieg von 23 Prozent bei BHP Billiton, dem weltweit viertgrößten Uran-Produzenten. Im vergangenen Jahr verteuerte sich das radioaktive Metall um 76 Prozent. Damit legte der Preis stärker zu als bei allen anderen 19 Rohstoffen im Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, mit Ausnahme von Zucker. In diesem Jahr dürfte der Preisanstieg bei Uran sogar den Aufwärtstrend bei Zink übertreffen, das Rohstoffspezialisten in diesem Jahr 21 Prozent teurer sehen. Das Uran-Fördervolumen liegt jährlich nur bei 60 Prozent der Menge, die von den Kernreaktoren weltweit verbraucht wird. Ohne die Lagerbestände und wiederverwertetes Material aus russischen Kernsprengköpfen würde die Atomenergieindustrie nicht über genug spaltbares Material verfügen, um alle Kraftwerke am Laufen zu halten. Angesichts der anziehenden Preise für Öl, Gas und Kohle steigt in China und Indien die Nachfrage nach Nuklearenergie. Finnland baut einen neuen Reaktor, auch Versorger in Frankreich und den USA erwägen neue Bauprojekte.

Bedenken, daß die Verbrennung fossiler Kraftstoffe zur globalen Erwärmung beiträgt, verstärken diese Dynamik. Hedgefonds-Manager Bob Mitchell von Adit Capital Management LP in Portland, Oregon, sagt, er sei so "bullish", daß er Angebote von Minengesellschaften abgeschlagen habe, die seine gesamten Uran-Bestand hatten aufkaufen wollen. Er hat Uran im November 2004 zu 20 Dollar je Pfund zu kaufen begonnen, angesichts von Berichten, wonach einige Stromkonzerne ihre Bestände wiederaufstocken mußten. Ende letzter Woche kostete Uran nach Angaben des Branchendienstes Metal Bulletin 39,25 Dollar je Pfund. Spekulanten hätten "jegliche Überschüsse aus dem Markt genommen, die es gab", sagt James Cornell, Präsident von RWE Nukem. Die Anleger "beschaffen sich die verfügbaren Uranbestände vor den Versorgern."

Die Nuklearindustrie dürfte nach drei Jahrzehnten der Stagnation bis 2030 Investitionen von über 200 Mrd. Dollar entgegensehen, schätzt die Internationale Energieagentur in Paris. Zu den 24 Reaktoren, die gegenwärtig in Bau seien, kommen weitere 41 Kernmeiler, die bestellt oder in Planung sind. Bloomberg

Artikel erschienen am Di, 14. März 2006

http://www.welt.de/data/2006/03/14/859625.html

http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_graph_u3o8.gif

...ist mir zwar gar nicht sympathisch - aber man konnte viele Geld mit Uran Aktien "verdienen" bei frühem Einstieg :rolleyes

mama mia

18.03.2006, 12:30

Your Gold Mining Stocks - The Moment of Truth

Kenneth J. Gerbino
Archives
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
March 20, 2006

Although I believe we are in a multi-year bull market in metals. This past month witnessed the worst gold mining share retreat in 23 months. February was a very bad month for the mining stocks, the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) was down 13.4% and gold was also down. So far in March, there has been more downside pressure as well and now the miners are holding their own in a nervous market.

I recently spent four days in Florida at the Bank of Montreal Nesbitt Burns Institutional Mining Conference and met with dozens of managements of large and small mining companies. Two of the themes were 1) continued demand for base metal and 2) the precious metal companies are all using much lower metal prices for cash flow projections and engineering studies. They are being conservative since production decisions involving billions of dollars are many times at stake. For the novice gold mining investor, which includes many billion dollar hedge fund managers, seeing cash flow projections based on $400 gold can paint a conservative future as well as present a high cash flow multiple to the current price. This is actually favorable to the long term gold bugs as it can help keep a lid on an explosion in prices which would make buying these stocks even more of a volatile proposition.

At my firm we are analyzing our mining stocks using $400 gold, $6 silver, $1.00 copper, and 50 cents zinc for our spreadsheets. These prices are well below current prices (gold $535, silver $10, copper $2.20, and zinc $1.00). If we can see a double in a stock over a three year period with metal prices substantially lower, then we know we have a winner. These stocks will do even better if the metal prices stay anywhere near current levels or go higher.

Over the next five years I expect metals prices to stay well above their long term averages but I have learned the hard way that it pays to take some money off the table once in awhile when markets get too hot.

There are going to be ups and downs but by avoiding overvalued or fundamentally flawed mining companies one should do better in down cycles and this should allow you to take advantage of what looks like a positive long term trend in the metals market. Most importantly, always remember that your gold and silver investments are a powerful insurance policy against a world gone mad in a political and economic sense.

Don't Forget the Base Metal Stocks

We still have a long way to go in this mining stock bull market, because all the mining stocks together represent less than 1% of the S&P 500 Index. Therefore we still have the luxury of buying value at relatively good prices because Wall Street does not generally follow many of the base or precious metal stocks. You are ahead of the crowd.

In almost every other industry, when prices go up the makers of those goods build more factories and hire more people and produce as much product as they can ship out the door. New companies and people show up and pour lots of money into that industry to try and take advantage of the obvious shortages or price boom. In the mining industry it takes 5-10 years to build a mine... and that presumes you have found an economic mineral deposit. So when metal prices go up there is no fast business response available.

We are in an era where India and China need 5-6 times more raw materials than Europe and the U.S. did during the 30 years of booming economic expansion after WWII. However, the inventories of metals in the world's major warehouses (Comex, London Metal Exchange and Shanghai) are down by more than 80% in the last three years and all the easy mineral deposits found near surface over the last century have been mostly consumed. Minerals and metals are becoming more scarce.

Consequently an acute supply squeeze will surely occur in the coming years. This means historic valuations of mining stocks based on global economic cyclicality is no longer valid. Growth from Asia and India changes the entire landscape of raw materials from a cyclical business to a growth business - and there is precedent for this; the 1950's and 60's, where old names such as Kennecott Copper, Reynolds Metals, St. Joseph Minerals and International Nickel experienced two decades of strong non-cyclical growth.

The above makes this investment thesis a unique opportunity and the mining sector could, again, become the long term darling of Wall Street.

Mining companies should now enter an era of sustained growth. Growth stocks sell for 20-30 times earnings. Base metal mining stocks in the last three decades usually sold for only 3-7 times earnings because of the constant ups and downs of the world's economy (cyclicality). This is all changing right now. Although we own plenty of gold and silver companies for our clients we are also invested in producers of copper, nickel, platinum, zinc and lead deposits and I recommend the same for you. These companies will experience higher valuation multiples of cash flow by Wall Street because they are enjoying very strong profit margins and sustained growth.

Even slow growth from India and China make these stocks big time growth companies that have huge asset values already in the ground and because no one can ramp up any supply in the short or medium term to meet demand, pricing power will be strong. Also these mineral deposits like everything else in the world become more valuable as inflation continues to move forward year after year.

The mining sector, up until 2002, had 20 years of lower prices, layoffs, and abnormally low investments in new mines and exploration. Consequently the mining companies were totally unprepared for the huge increase in global demand for basic metals in the last three years. They are now 5-7 years away from catching up. Shortages are here and now and they could get worse.

Just make sure you do your homework when buying mining stocks and remember there are a lot mining stock "experts" on the internet that are not as well versed as you might think. There are now hundreds. Back in the early 70's when my friend Doug Casey and I were buying moose pasture at the beginning of our careers there were some very good advisers around. Now, it's a different story. Mining is a tough business. Be a tough investor and work hard at it and you will be better off. But be careful of what you read from the new wave of "experts".

The Best Sector on Wall Street

There are three phenomena converging right now that offer you a unique opportunity. 1) Prices are going up for gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, uranium, and the platinum group. 2) Supply will be constrained for 5-7 years. 3) Warehouses are almost empty. The combination of higher prices and a growth aspect means that many properly evaluated mining stocks could have enormous moves to the upside.

The U.S. dollar will also continue to face tremendous pressure. Chinese and Japanese exporters will take more of their earnings in their local currency and this will be a huge strain on the dollar value vis a vis these currencies. If the dollar is going to trend down, anything denominated in dollars will be priced higher and that certainly includes gold and silver - the only liquid tangible assets with a globally standard value.

There is no better sector on Wall Street than the mining companies in my opinion. Take advantage of the above data and being in the right place at the right time. Most likely we have a 5-10 year major bull market coming in the metals. There will be some nasty corrections... but no one ever said it would be easy.

Up and Down Influences

The U.S. current account and budget deficits hit records in the latest reporting period. This combined with U.S. interest rates at less competitive levels internationally (compared to a year ago) and the fact foreign central banks may start to rebalance their reserves away from dollars, could bring on a period of dollar weakness. This should have a positive effect on gold which will help balance the "sticker shock" of gold jewelry buyers reacting to a 25-year high in the price of gold.

Along with the above trends, the gold market still has other factors that should positively affect the demand side of the equation and the price level. These are:

Oil exporting nations recycling huge dollar surpluses outside of the dollar
Continued strong Mideast gold buying
Mine production forecasted to be flat to slightly down for 2006
High energy prices creating a more inflation prone environment
Political tensions regarding the Iranian nuclear situation and Iraq
Higher than expected Chinese GDP growth
ETFs taking more and more gold off the market as large international institutions now have a vehicle to own bullion.
The downside influences are: 1) the possibility of jewelry demand being stagnant or declining due to new higher price levels, 2) large hedge funds, active in the metals market could create some profit taking sell-offs and 3) normal price pullbacks from the last six months rise.

The latest Bank for International Settlements report on derivatives states a combined total global amount of $328 trillion. This is $100 trillion larger than 2003. Just to give you something to compare this number to; The U.S is the largest economy in the world, accounting for 25% of the worlds GDP at $12 trillion. According to the BIS there is a 25.2 times leverage factor of derivative value versus the money backing the transactions. This enormous leverage is so high and these market amounts so large that even a mild economic shock could have tremendous repercussions that could possibly bring down some large financial institutions. Having gold and silver investments in the current climate is mandatory for anyone's nest egg.

Silver Should do Well

The supply/demand fundamentals on silver are even more positive than gold. Silver is also the poor mans' gold and there are billions of poor people in India and Asia, many who manage to save. Therefore, silver should have very strong demand going forward.

With a new ETF in silver most likely coming to market, many market players have bought in anticipation of this event and this might be somewhat anticlimactic. But, if the gold ETFs have bought $6 billion of inventory in less than a year, then the approximate 250 million ounces of silver inventory in various warehouses may not be enough to handle the demand.

Zinc is my favorite base metal because it will be in supply deficit for the next three years, has few substitutes and in most applications, higher prices do not diminish demand. For example a car uses about $17 worth of zinc. If zinc tripled in price, it would mean only a 2/10th of 1% percentage increase to a $20,000 car. However, the impact on a zinc mine of a few pennies per pound is substantial.

I would be cautious here and be patient as well. $600 gold may look good but will it last. A move to $600 sounds great but are you prepared for a normal correction back to $500 from there? I would suggest having a core portfolio that you hang on to as your insurance portfolio (this should not include any exploration stocks since they have zero gold) and another where you intelligently make good investments in quality, properly valued companies but don't take losses if the trades go against you and only buy on dips.

Currently a price decline back to $460 is very possible and a run up to $600 is also possible. No one can predict this. Your only protection in the coming environment is to stay with real good merchandise and don't be afraid to take some off the table on run ups.

Good luck.

Please visit our website for more articles on gold, the economy and stock market.

Mar 17, 2006
Kenneth J. Gerbino

Archives

Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management
9595 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 303
Beverly Hills, California 90212
Telephone (310) 550-6304
Fax (310) 550-0814
E-Mail: kjgco@att.net
Website: www.kengerbino.com

321gold Inc

mama mia

19.03.2006, 09:00

Kitco von A - Z

http://www.kitco.com/ind/

mama mia

21.03.2006, 10:25

Behind The Bull Market

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
The Aden Sisters
March 21, 2006
Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com

There was more tension on the geopolitical front this month, and there are few signs this is going to end soon. That's especially true in the Middle East where one event after another has been making headlines. The situation is intensifying and this will continue to affect the markets, particularly gold and oil.

COMPLICATIONS IN A BAD SITUATION

Iraq, for instance, is on the brink of civil war. Fighting and bombings have spread as the death toll grows daily. Iran remains a wild card and it's holding firm on its nuclear stand, despite worldwide disapproval.

The entire situation is turning into a quagmire. Many of the Iraqi insurgents are believed to be from Iran but there are ever growing groups from other countries too. Roadside bombings are averaging 1000 per month while Bush is warning of a long war. Intelligence chief Negroponte says terrorism may spread to other Asian nations, while Rumsfeld admitted the U.S. is losing the propaganda war to al Qaeda.

This was illustrated in surprising poll results several months ago. When asked, how much confidence do you have in bin Laden, over 50% of the respondents in Pakistan and Jordan said a lot and these are countries friendly to the U.S. The results were also high in Indonesia. Unfortunately, this sentiment seems to be spreading.

GOLD LOVES UNCERTAINTY

Wars often don't work out as planned. The Vietnam War was one example that hit close to home. Iraq has become another example and U.S. opinion has changed as a result.

Bush's approval rating has declined steadily and more than 60% of those polled feel the U.S. is seriously off course. Second term presidents have often had a hard time and it looks like Bush is not going to be an exception. But he's determined to carry on with his policies, which is bullish for gold because it'll mean ongoing deficit spending and ongoing global tensions.

When gold's bull market started in 2001 it wasn't yet clear what might fuel the rise. But as these factors have evolved, they nearly guaranty a continuation of gold's bull market for years to come. Let's look at the money alone

REPERCUSSIONS OF AN EXPENSIVE WAR

The war in Iraq is now costing more than the Vietnam war, per month adjusted for inflation. Plus, the U.S. has already spent almost as much as it did in Vietnam, even though that war lasted 13 years. The U.S., however, can't afford it. So it's cutting social spending and other programs as it pours more money into military spending, which will be nearly half a trillion dollars in the year ahead. It's also creating money out of thin air to cover these expenses and that's why the budget deficit keeps hitting new all time highs. Very simply, the government keeps spending money it doesn't have.

FUELING INFLATION

As a result, all of this deficit spending and booming money supply is also fueling inflation, which has been on the rise for a while now. In other words, a loose money supply is the cause and price inflation is the effect. That's always been the case and it's happening again. And since gold is the ultimate inflation hedge and it reacts to world tension, that's why it's rising too.

The situation was very similar in the 1960-70s. As the war in Vietnam drug on, the government adopted a guns and butter policy it couldn't afford. Monetary policy was irresponsible, which almost always happens during times of war, and that eventually resulted in soaring inflation in the late 1970s. Gold also soared, hitting $850 in early 1980.

Chart Courtesy of Bridgewater Associates

We don't think we're exaggerating when we say the situation today is more serious than it was then. The spending is bigger, the deficits are larger and U.S. debt as a percentage of Gross National Product (GDP) is now at the highest levels since 1916, and probably ever (see chart). Currently, for every dollar of GDP, there are three dollars of debt.
That's downright scary. It's even higher than during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and with the economy and housing now slowing, along with record high bankruptcies, you can bet the Fed is on the alert. It knows this debt is dangerous and if the economy were to really slow down, deflation could take hold. The Fed definitely wouldn't want that to happen and it would do everything it could to avoid it, including cranking up the printing presses as Bernanke has said in the past. That would add more coal to the inflation fire.

The historical cycles tend to reinforce deflation is not in the cards. Mega trend upmoves generally last about 22 years on average, going back to the early 1800s. This coincides with bull markets in tangible assets and since the current mega upmove started around 2000, it could continue for another 10 to 15 years, based on these cycles.

And while we don't enjoy saying this, increasingly it looks like this mega upmove is going to coincide with the clash of civilizations, the ongoing religious wars or whatever some are saying is happening in the Middle East. We hope we're wrong but the evolving oil situation tends to suggest this as well.

Demand for oil is soaring worldwide while supplies are being depleted. Oil producers have become the big men on campus and some are behaving that way. Just look at Ahmadinejad in Iran or Chavez in Venezuela as examples.

OIL PRODUCERS ARE MAKING THE RULES

Iran is a real case in point. Today they're scheduled to open their new oil bourse, which will only accept euros for oil and not U.S. dollars. Based on Ahmadinejad's actions on other issues, he'll probably go ahead. If he does, it'll be a huge economic slap to the U.S. because U.S. dollar world dominance would begin to unravel, both as the global pricing mechanism for oil and as the world's reserve currency. Plus, Norway is now saying its oil should be bought in euros too.

This would seriously hurt the dollar, but it would be good for gold since gold generally rises as the dollar falls. In the past five years, the dollar has already lost a large portion of its value in terms of gold and that would certainly accelerate if the dollar/oil relationship starts coming apart.

For now, we don't know how this will all work out. But gold's mega trend is poised to continue in the years ahead and based on what's happening in the Middle East, events there will likely be an important reason why, both financially and geopolitically.

Mar 20, 2006
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
info@adenforecast.com

mama mia

21.03.2006, 10:59

I’m scratching my head...

What should we make of the action in bonds?

The long end of the curve has baffled so many for so long. There’s a solid fundamental case for higher interest rates and yet yields have remained stubbornly low.

Perhaps the latest breakout has everyone paralyzed.
Is this really it?
Nah, better wait and see.

Here’s what I’m thinking:

The latest breakout in bonds is not attracting much commentary which creates the potential for a MAJOR surprise!

The market is cunning and emotionless. Regardless of what we do (or don’t) say, long-term interest rates are indeed moving upward albeit ever so slowly.

Our job as investors and speculators is not so much to question as it is to react. So without further adieu, lets take a look...

Chart 1 - 30 Yr Bonds (red) versus US Dollar (green)

Please cast your eye on the insert in the above chart. This is a snapshot of the 30-year US Bond yield (daily chart). A breakout was clearly signalled when the yield moved above the blue line. The target - around 5.25%

With so much debt fixed to long term rates I wonder what the knock on effect will be?

Chart 1 provides the clue:

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldSeek/images/2006/3-19gs/1.jpg

The US Dollar (Green line) has a long-term correlation with Bond Yields.
There are time lags, in some instances up to 2 years - Bonds peaked in 2000 and the US Dollar in 2002. The current strength in the Dollar may be in response to rising rates in mid 2003 OR because of the current rise in rates.

Regardless, the message is that the Dollar has more upside than currently expected!

Now it’s well known that there is an inverse correlation between the Dollar and Gold.
Could this mean that Gold has a lot more downside than the current consenus?

Hold on folks...lets take a deeper look.

Rising Long Term rates are (I believe) only half the story.
The full story lies in the yield curve.
EXPECTATIONS in the spread between short and long term rates have more bearing on the price of Gold.

Why?

If the expectation is that money will become easier (the yield curve will steepen), people will borrow more to invest at higher rates and the money supply will expand. An expanding money supply IS the definition of Inflation. And Gold responds positively to rising inflation.

So what’s the current expectation around the yield curve?

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldSeek/images/2006/3-19gs/2.jpg

Chart 2 - Yield Curve Daily

The daily chart is showing every indication of a double bottom.
The second bottom at 1.007 was not confirmed by either the MACD or RSI (green lines).
In addition the yield curve reversal has been accelerating as evidenced by the MACD crossovers (red circles).

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldSeek/images/2006/3-19gs/3.jpg

Chart 3 - Weekly Yield Curve (red) vs HUI (black)

Divergences are even more pronounced on the weekly chart (green lines).

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE YIELD CURVE HAS BOTTOMED AND MONETARY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EASIER (the yield curve will steepen). Based on the above chart that’s great news for Gold Stocks!

But what about the nagging strength in the Greenback?

The answer to that lies in Chart 4:

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldSeek/images/2006/3-19gs/4.jpg

Chart 4 - Goldfields (red) vs Yield Curve (Green) vs Newmont (Orange)

This chart needs some explanation but also provides some valuable insight.

In 2001, when this Secular Gold Bull market began, conditions were eerily similar to what they are today.

In 2001, the yield curve began to steepen and gold stocks began to rise (refer to chart 3).
Also, from 2001 to 2002 the US Dollar continued to strengthen (Chart 1).

A stronger Gold Price and a stronger Dollar created the PERFECT conditions for Non-US Gold Miners to ROCKET higher. Which is exactly what we see with South African Miner Goldfields!
US based miners like Newmont (orange line) were slower to join the party and only saw their massive gains when chronic weakness emerged in the Dollar (2003).

We are now standing at the precipice of the next METEORIC rise in this historical Gold Bull market. As before, the first Train to leave the station will be Gold miners who count their costs in non-US Dollar currencies.

More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribers...
-- Posted Sunday, 19 March 2006

http://www.goldseek.com/tools/print.php

mama mia

22.03.2006, 10:25

Verfasst von Dietmar Siebholz am 21.03.2006 um 7:46 Uhr
Explorationskonzentration im US-Staat Nevada

Der Ausspruch "Wer zu spät kommt, den bestraft das Leben" (Gorbatschow 1989 zu Honecker) hat in der Vergangenheit Situationen gekennzeichnet, in denen ein zu spätes Reagieren auf wesentliche Tendenzen den Zögerlichen bestrafte. Genauso ging es meinem österreichischen Freund Florian Riedl-Riedenstein und mir in Bezug auf die Explorationsaktivitäten in Nevada. Wir wollten uns schon vor Jahren vor allem auf Explorationen in Nevada konzentrieren.

Nach unserem gemeinsamen in den USA veröffentlichten Aufsatz gegen die Gold-Strategie von Barrick ("Barrick, the recipe for a desaster" = "Barrick, das Rezept für ein Desaster"), nahmen wir uns vor, mehrere detaillierte Essays über die Zukunft der Standorte für optimale Gold-Explorationen und die Chancen der Explorationsunternehmen sowie über den Zwang zur Konzentration der Explorateure bzw. über den Druck auf die großen Goldförderer, Junior- oder Explorationsunternehmen zu übernehmen, um sich die Reserven für die künftige Förderung zu sichern, zu schreiben.

Dazu ist es leider wegen der mit einer derartigen Analyse verbundenen erheblichen Zeitinvestitionen nicht gekommen; immerhin haben wir uns eine Landkarte des US-Staates Nevada angeschafft und darauf die vielen Claims und Lagerstätten, die Schürf- und Explorationsgebiete der einzelnen Unternehmen markiert. Wir wissen seit geraumer Zeit, wer wo welche Rechte unterhält, und wo die derzeitig aktiven Minen liegen.

Warum diese Konzentration auf Nevada? Die Antwort ist einfach. Die Grossen (also Newmont, Barrick, Placer, Anglo Gold, Harmony, Goldfields u.a.) haben in den letzten Jahren weltweit viele negative Erfahrungen in den diversen Gold-Abbaugebieten sammeln dürfen (und müssen), was bei den Großen zu einer Art Trendwende in deren Prioritäten geführt hat.

Die genannten Unternehmen haben entweder Enteignungstendenzen spüren müssen wie in Venezuela, in Südafrika und in Zimbabwe oder die Gier und Unzuverlässigkeit von Regierungen wie in Russland, Neuguinea, Indonesien, Bolivien, Ekuador und Argentinien erfahren dürfen und nicht zuletzt die Unkalkulierbarkeit der NGO´s (also der Non Governmental Organisations - in der Regel Umweltverbände), die viele Vorhaben für lange Zeit blockieren haben und noch werden. So z.B. die in Chile/Argentinien liegenden Vorhaben von Barrick in Pascua Lama, wo sich die reichen Goldlagerstätten unter den Zungen von Gletschern befinden und vor dem Abbau diese Gletscher erst gesprengt werden sollen. Dass die Umweltschutz-Organisationen diesen Eingriff zulassen werden, halte ich für ausgeschlossen.

Nach solchen Erfahrungen sucht man dann wieder eher im eigenen Umfeld, also in den USA und stellt fest, dass dort unausgebeutete und äußerst chancenreiche Vorhaben sicherlich leichter zu erschließen sind.

Ein weiteres Argument sollte nicht unbeachtet bleiben. Wenn man davon ausgeht, dass auf die USA unangenehme Zeiten zukommen, dann dürfte sich der Druck auf die Lohnkosten, die sich in den USA real in den letzten Jahren erheblich reduziert haben, fortsetzen. Inflationäre Lohnkostensteigerungen, wie sie sich derzeit z.B. in Südafrika abzeichnen, dürften in den USA nicht auftreten. Die Förderkosten sollten dann im Inland stabiler sein als in vielen anderen Standorten vor allem in den Entwicklungsländern. Ein weiteres Argument muss man darin sehen, dass die USA - wenn sie ihre derzeitige Politik nicht ändern - immer mehr in Richtung "splendid isolation" vorantreiben, und da ist die Produktion im eigenen Lande immer sehr gern gesehen.

Nachdem sich die weltweiten Behinderungen bei Gold zu wesentlichen Förderrücknahmen z.B. in Australien und in Südafrika ausgewachsen haben, drängen sich die Explorationsgebiete im eigenen Lande zusätzlich auf.

Ja, diese Erkenntnis hatte sich bei mir schon Ende des Jahres 2002 konkretisiert; zu diesem Zeitpunkt bestellte ich die große Landkarte des Staates Nevada, der nach dem Witwatersrand-Gebiet in Südafrika als die zweitgrößte Goldlagerstätte der Welt angesehen wird.

Was ich unterließ, war die Prüfung, welche Minengesellschaften die größten Chancen in Nevada aufweisen; Florian RR, der ja als "alter Minenhase" gilt, veranlasste mich zumindest, mich in einigen Gesellschaften wie z.B. Coral Gold, Nevada-Pacific, US-Gold und X-Cal zu engagieren. Dabei blieb es aber. Ich hätte es besser wissen müsse...

Einer der ganz Großen im Goldgeschäft war und ist Robert McEwen, der legendäre Entwickler der Goldcorp (einer der profitabelsten Goldminengesellschaften, die äußerst erfolgreich im kanadischen Red-Lake-Gebiet tätig ist); Herr McEwen hat sich nach der Fusion mit Wheaton River aus der Goldcorp teilweise zurückgezogen und investiert seitdem seine Mittel nachhaltig in Explorationsgesellschaften mit Schwerpunkt NEVADA, so z.B. US Gold Corp., Coral Gold, Tone Resources, Nevada-Pacific Gold und White Knight Corp.

Das sollte uns allen zu denken geben. "Gold hat Zukunft", das ist die Grundaussage von Robert McEwen und Nevada ist sein favorisierter Standort für die Goldexploration. Wenn eine Mann seine Fähigkeiten, Goldschürfrechte zu erwerben, diese zu konzentrieren und aus vielen kleinen Firmen eine große Gesellschaft zu schaffen, bewiesen hat, dann ist es Robert McEwen.

Mein Interesse ist geweckt, meine Nevada-Karte hängt über dem Schreibtisch, so dass ich sehen kann, wo sich was entwickelt; mein Standort-Favorit ist Nevada.

Sagen Sie mir in kommenden Jahren nicht, Sie hätten es nicht besser gewusst. Ich meine, der nächste und unvermeidliche Goldrausch, der sich aus der Schwäche seines direkten Konkurrenten (nämlich des in unbegrenzten Mengen/Massen in Umlauf gebrachten Papiergelds - ob nun Dollar, Euro, Yen oder Yuan genannt) von selbst ergeben wird, findet in Nevada statt.

Ein Grund mehr, sich um Explorationsunternehmen zu kümmern, die in dem aktuell wichtigen Explorationsstreifen (Battle-Mountain-Eureka-Trend) tätig sind. Nach den Geschäftskontakten zu US-Gold, zu Nevada-Pacific Gold und zu Coral Gold intensiviere ich die Gespräche mit X-Cal, einem aussichtsreichen Explorationsunternehmen, das drei interessante Explorationsfelder (Sleeper Mine - Reese River und Mill Creek) in diesem goldreichen Trend besitzt. Machen auch Sie Ihre Hausarbeiten und bilden Sie sich Ihr Urteil.

Im Übrigen: Es gibt eine Gelegenheit, hierzu persönliche Eindrücke zu sammeln: Der Vorstandvorsitzende Shawn Kennedy hat zu einer Informationsveranstaltung der X-Cal Resources Corp. am 29. März 2006 ins Steigenberger Hotel Frankfurter Hof eingeladen. Interessenten sollten sich über wthlz@compuserve.de (kostenlos) anmelden.

© Dietmar Siebholz - http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2393

mama mia

24.03.2006, 17:50

Gewinnbringender Geologe

„Gold ist sexy“

http://a.relaunch.focus.de/img/gen/V/V/HBVVABZay.w_Pxgen_r_210xA.jpg

Gold feiert in der Finanzwelt ein glänzendes Comeback

| 24.03.06, 16:36 Uhr |

Der gebürtige Düsseldorfer Klaus Eckhof beschert seinen Aktionären seit Jahren goldene Gewinne.

http://www.aurora-gold.com/images/eckhof2.jpg

Ginge es nach dem ehemaligen Kulmbacher Neuer-Markt-Guru Bernd Förtsch, müsste man Eckhof als Reinkarnation des „Mister Dausend Prozent“ bezeichnen. Andere bezeichnen ihn als „Midas aus Deutschland“. Fakt ist, dass er den richtigen Riecher für Goldvorkommen in aller Welt hat – und seinen Anlegern damit stetige Gewinne beschert.

1988 nach Australien emigriert

Der 48-jährige, der heute Mitglied des Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy ist, absolvierte in München sein Geologiestudium und wanderte 1988 nach Australien aus. Seine Sporen verdiente er im gleichen Jahr bei einem jungen Explorationsunternehmen namens Mount Edon Gold Mines. Dort machte er die Fachwelt durch die Entdeckung von rund drei Millionen Unzen (eine Unze = 31,10 Gramm) Gold auf sich aufmerksam.

1996 rief der mittlerweile längst zum Stargeologen avancierte Eckhof Lafayette Mining ins Leben, die auf den Philippinen ein Projekt übernahm, das derzeit in Produktion genommen wird. Zur gleichen Zeit gründete er Spinifex Gold, die in Tansania Vorkommen von 2,5 Millionen Unzen Gold in der Region am Victoriasee auswies. Spinifex wurde im Oktober 2003 von der Gallery Gold übernommen – und bescherte seinen Anteilseignern einen Gewinn von rund 1000 Prozent.

Renditejäger mit Gold-Faible dürften auch mit den aktuellen Eckhof-Gesellschaften gut fahren, zumal der Experte davon ausgeht, dass der Preis des Edelmetalls auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten von derzeit 552 auf 600 bis 650 Dollar je Unze steigen könnte. „Gold ist sexy“, lautet das Credo des Wahl-Australiers – auch für Investoren.

Goldschatz im Kongo

Moto Goldmines (Isin AU000000MOE1, Kurs 0,87 Euro) ist das derzeitige Flaggschiff der Eckhof-Gesellschaften. Die Gesellschaft startete im April 2003 mit 400 000 Unzen Gold. Bis heute ist die Lagerstätte auf elf Millionen Feinunzen angewachsen, Experten sprechen von einem der größten Goldfunde der letzten Jahre. „Seit 2004 haben wir im Kongo mit Moto Goldmines mehr Gold gefunden, als in den vergangenen zehn Jahren auf dem gesamten australischen Kontinent neu entdeckt wurde“, bringt es Eckhof auf den Punkt.

Der Goldexperte ist davon überzeugt, noch in diesem Jahr 15 Millionen Unzen ausweisen zu können. Anfang 2007 soll eine bankgeprüfte Durchführbarkeits-Studie vorliegen, die der Grundstein für die Produktion des gelben Edelmetalls sein wird. Mit einem Börsenwert von 137 Millionen Euro bietet Moto Goldmines auf dem aktuellem Niveau noch deutliches Kurspotenzial.

Auf dem Sprung

Tiger Resources (Isin AU000000TGS2, Kurs 0,24 Euro) exploriert und akquiriert bedeutende Basismetall-Lagerstätten in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo. Zudem hält man eine Mehrheitsbeteiligung an der Explorationskonzession „Rosa de Majo“ in Brasilien. Allein die Kupfer-Kobalt-Lagerstätte in Kabolela/Kongo birgt angezeigte Ressourcen von 3,7 Millionen Tonnen Erz mit 3,8 Prozent Kupfer und 0,7 Prozent Kobalt – beides heiß begehrte Metalle, deren Preis seit Jahren steigt.

Der Kurs der Aktie legte in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten um rund 100 Prozent zu. Da sich Tiger Resources aber noch in einem sehr frühen Stadium seiner Unternehmensgeschichte befindet, eignet es sich nur für spekulative Anleger.

Schätze am Amazonas

Aurora Gold (Isin US0516421064, Kurs 1,48 Euro) steht erst seit Ende Februar unter der Leitung von Klaus Eckhof. Die Gesellschaft fokussiert sich auf die Goldexploration in Brasilien, wo in den kommenden Wochen ein umfangreiches Bohrprogramm starten soll. Der besondere Charme: Bisher waren in dieser Region keine Minengesellschaften aktiv, sondern nur „Garimpeiros“ – das sind in Kooperativen zusammengefasste Goldschürfer.

Schon diese stießen mit ihren eher primitiven Abbaumethoden auf einen Goldgehalt von bis zu drei Gramm je Tonne Erdreich. Experten gehen davon aus, dass allein auf Basis dieser Daten bis zu fünf Millionen Unzen Gold in den drei von Aurora beackerten Projekten der Tapajos-Region schlummern dürften.

Weitere Übernahmen geplant

Bezogen auf den aktuellen Börsenwert von rund 65 Millionen Dollar entspricht das einer Marktkapitalisierung von nur 13 US-Dollar je Feinunze – eine deutliche Unterbewertung, denn andere Explorationsunternehmen bekommen durchschnittlich mindestens 20 Dollar je Unze zugebilligt.

Dabei ist noch nicht berücksichtigt, dass die Auswertung der jüngsten von Aurora durchgeführten Stichproben Metallgehalte zwischen knapp sieben und 58 Gramm Gold, bis zu 37 Gramm Silber und 1,7 Prozent Kupfer je Tonne Gestein zu Tage brachten. Zusätzliche Kursphantasie: Eckhof kündigte gegenüber FOCUS weitere Akquisitionen an, die nicht lange auf sich warten lassen dürften.

http://focus.msn.de/finanzen/geldanlage/gewinnbringender-geologe_nid_26641.html

mama mia

29.03.2006, 16:07

The Wallace Street Journal

By David Bond, Editor
The Silver Valley Mining Journal

Much A-Brewin’ In The Old Mining Camp

Wallace, Idaho – So much is happening in the world of Silver these days that it’s impossible to take a snapshot of it without getting a blurry image, even at 1/1000th of a second. Even this old mining camp is getting an adrenalin jolt.

Ever since Coeur d’Alene Mines put the Galena silver mine here in Wallace up on the block on Jan. 31, barely a day goes by we don’t see some new, very out-of-place corporate jet or turboprop sitting in the ramp at the county airfield (future home of Air Wallace, BTW) which on normal days may see a wayward Piper J-3 or Cessna 172.

Serious suitors for the Galena, which staff have been given until 31 March to get the beasty off Coeur’s books, include: Sterling Mining Co., recent acquirers of the Sunshine silver mine; Revett Mining Co., who own the Troy copper-silver producer and the Rock Creek silver-copper property (both former Asarco plays) in western Montana; Hecla Mining Co.; Teck-Cominco; and another unnamed Canadian. The vig is $10 million, with another $10-mil to get Galena back on her feet, our sources tell us.

Galena is a fine silver resource, and in a good year could serve up 5 million ounces. Is it a done resource? Well, Fred Owsley, who for two decades navigated Galena for Asarco through the Coeur d’Alene District’s treacherous waters of strikes and layoffs and never endured either, used to say that it is the fate of all mines, great or small, that they end in failure. They run out of ore.

No-one familiar with Galena, and we’ve combed the heights and depths of this camp, believes Galena is mined-out, or even close to being so. And when we are talking about Galena we are talking about a land package that comprises the entire eastern half of the Silver Belt, or “Dry Belt” of the Coeur d’Alene Mining District and includes four, count’m, four, more or less functional surface-breaching shafts – the Caladay (sunk for former Galena owners Callahan, Hecla and Day Mines to a depth of 5,000 feet by Lovon Fausett and to which we have been to the bottom), Galena’s two shafts, and the Coeur Shaft.

Each of these bad boys has a hoist of varying horsepower and capacity and equally important, the Coeur and Galena mine each have a concentrator. A little tweak here and there and one could easily be milling 1,500 tons a day of rock. Galena connects to the Coeur underground, which connects through the old Coeur d’Alene Mine through the Consolidated-Silver to the Sunshine Mine. Only a few hundred feet or so of drifting would connect the Sunshine to the Crescent, which is connected via the Yreka-United Tunnel to the Bunker Hill.

Not to put too harsh a point on it, but Coeur d’Alene Mines let Galena get a tad moth-eaten earlier this decade, when silver was heading south of $4 an ounce and both Coeur and Hecla were being threatened with eviction from the NYSE for failing to keep their common stock out of Dollar Store range. It was a damn difficult time to justify, to the 90-day quick-buck investor mentality, any long-term capital commitments to their properties up here. Hecla, with what in retrospect could have been deemed suicidal timing, stepped up to the plate and tossed $11 million into the Lucky Friday in 2003 when scuttlebutt paid equal weight to rumours they’d pull the pin. The investment paid off; by Feb. 6 of this year, they had doubled their silver reserves (that’s reserves, not one of those fancy Canadian words) by 8.7 million ounces at a cost of less than $1.70. That reserve calculation is based on $6.20 silver, 30-cent lead and 44-cent zinc. Hecla CEO Phil Baker, who at 44 is just a kid by mining CEO standards, says the Lucky Friday won’t close on his watch, and we believe him.

Galena’s a bit different story. A year after Hecla stepped up, CDE’s Dennis Wheeler fetched up in the camp to announce a major increase in silver production from Galena. Dennis lied. They didn’t make the effort. Contrast CDE’s non-effort to that which Hecla put forth at the Lucky Friday. Hecla ventured capital and found silver. Dennis expended nothing and came up with, um, nothing. Coeur’s 2004 boost in production and attendant per-ounce cost reduction came at the expense of exploration and development, we are told – activities which were resumed last year at great expense to the bottom line. Added to all that was a run of bad luck; great big expensive hunks of machinery decided to lay an egg, including a key component of one of Galena’s hoists; the ground turned ratty on a key heading; some of Galena’s best contract “gypo” miners, fearing an early demise of the mine, tramped out, to Stillwater, the Lucky Friday or to Sterling’s Sunshine Mine rehabilitation project.

Galena’s fate is unknown until the 31st of March, but adding to the chaos is the sudden interest of Dennis Wheeler’s estranged uncle, former Coeur President and CEO Justin Rice, who has huge faith in Galena’s prospects. Justin doesn’t have the money to save Galena, but two years ago he founded Silver Royal Apex (a play on the old penny company that owned the option on what is now Coeur’s Rochester property in Lovelock, Nevada) and is staking claims on the north side of the Osburn Fault. Justin has huge faith in Galena and in this district, and coming from a mine-finder of his calibre I will take his word for it that, in the right hands, Galena’s and the Coeur d’Alene Mining District’s futures are secure.

Coeur is getting out of Dodge. By 2011 the Rochester will be a gob-hole. Meanwhile Uncle Justin clutches a fistful of surveys, re-creating Coeur in his own image as Silver Royal Apex. Watch for his IPO or his private placement. Justin will make you rich because he can’t help it.

Let’s see, what else? Well, little old New Jersey Mining Co. keeps backing into more gold ore than Newmont ever thought possible at the Golden Chest Mine just up the creek from here. They’re talking a 1,500-ton-per-day operation and they’ll be shipping silver concentrates next quarter from their Silver Strand mine a short hop north and west of here. Sterling is double-shifting its new adit at the Sunshine, round in round out. Canadians are about to take a major exploration position here. China, hungry for smelter feed, is snooping around the Coeur d’Alene District in a huge way for concentrate contracts. Robert Hopper will shortly need Pinkerton guards to secure his zinc and lead extractions from Bunker Hill. Hecla bought 172 million ounces of reserves for 50 cents an ounce at Friday. And your reward for reading this far: a consortium of European investors is about to do a monster mining land deal here. Stay tuned, Alice; life is getting curioser and curioser. The mining district may have been forgotten on the schoolboards Wallace and Kellogg, but in Frankfurt, Paris and Zurich, it’s been discovered. :confused Major infusions of capital are forthcoming.

http://www.silverminers.com/publications/showpub.aspx?id=2826

mama mia

01.04.2006, 11:56

April 01, 2006

Central Banks, Weimar Germany and Gold
by Richard Greene

http://www.safehaven.com/images/pixel.gif The man on the street is increasingly beginning to figure it out that the Government has been lying to him and, in effect, stealing from him. The retired person is finding out because after his cost of living adjustments he is just not making ends meet. The purchaser of inflation-adjusted securities is noticing that after his return of capital the capital does not purchase what it once did. The sender of a Federal Express letter can find a fuel adjustment charge of $4.13 now for just a single letter! Even producers of gold and silver, the ultimate defense against inflation, notice the price of steel and fuel are rising even faster than their end products. These are all dead giveaways that inflation is higher than reported and the masses are waking up in larger and larger numbers that it is a matter of survival to keep pace with inflation.

All of the government manipulations have largely worsened the situation by not only deceiving the masses, but also the allocators of capital which has resulted in serious misallocations of capital. Do we really need more retail stores or housing? Would we even come close to needing what we already have if it weren't for free and easy money? (In real terms money has in actuality been less than free unless you believe the ridiculous measures of low inflation that have been bandied about over the past few years.) The credit-based emphasis on consumption and asset bubbles to drive economic growth has gutted the longstanding, self-sustaining infrastructure of the US economy that had been its greatest strength.

The differences between our economy today with the centrally-planned economies of Russia in the past are less decipherable every year. The neglect of savings and investment that is crucial to a solid foundation for economic growth has been replaced by central planning of the economy by economic illiterates. While paying lip service to free markets and free trade, markets are manipulated and consumption is now entirely dependant on foreign capital. On top of all of this the foreign capital is precluded from investing in assets of its own choice but rather are directed toward more US debt; debt that is unlikely to be repaid in real terms. It is becoming obvious that the free money phase has played out, and as foreigners refuse to provide more capital except with higher compensation for the increasingly necessary monetization, more and more monetization will become necessary. The seeds of hyperinflation have been sown.

The US economy is heavily dependent on keeping asset bubbles from deflating. Just think how many people are employed as real estate agents, mortgage brokers, stock brokers, and other paper shuffling activities, not to mention the huge employment in the retailing industry that is totally dependent on the US continuing to consume more than it produces. Unemployment probably already exceeds 10%, yet, again government statistics assure us everything is sound. With such a heavy dependence on stocks and real estate never going down again, it makes sense to look at the Weimar experience and the great inflation in Germany in the early 1920's. Wall Street and the Government have the masses fooled that everything is just fine since the market never goes down. Yet if we look at the German experience the stock market went from under 100 to over 26 Billion in five years' time. A lifetime of savings and retirement funds were wiped out in a matter of months and people were forced to live from hand to mouth. With $50 trillion in present value of future benefits promised to workersm do Americans really believe they will get anything close to that in real terms? They may get it in nominal terms but it will probably not buy a bologna sandwich.

So, what to do to protect yourself from this cataclysmic possibility? Our recent administrators of the financial system are incredibly similar to John Law, a notorious financial alchemist that resurrected the economy of France before bringing it to its knees in the 1800's. The difference is that today's charlatans are equipped with much more powerful weapons through computerization and financial derivatives which in the end merely allow for vastly higher degrees of leverage and obfuscation. This has prolonged the day of reckoning to an incredible extent yet also guarantees the unwinding will be ever more painful. The typical financial planner today should be completely ashamed of his lack of knowledge and ability. While it is not surprising that bus drivers, plumbers, and the bulk of society are not conversant in the dangers prevalent today, it is totally unacceptable and disgraceful that financial people whose business it is to know are so completely in the dark. For example, it is common to hear advisors recommending municipal bonds as completely safe to investors while the municipality has huge deficits, debts, with a need to raise taxes that will kill the local economy. The land mines out there are clear to see with stocks like; FRE, FNM, GM, GE, F, JPM and a host of others. Don't be surprised if one of these firms is used as a toxic dumping ground to bury as much of the defaults as possible. All of these problems lead back to the same thing; the replacement of real money, gold and silver, with fiat money that is in the early stages of failure. "The Rude Awakening", an in-the-know free daily economic commentary, posted the following chart showing how in real terms gold has barely taken off.

Comparing yesterday's gold price to todays is apples and armadillos.

http://www.safehaven.com/images/greene/4886_a.gif

http://www.safehaven.com/images/greene/4886_b.gif

Don't be impressed that the Dow is closing in on all-time highs. The charts above from Robert Prechter's "The Elliott Wave Theorist" show a much truer picture. If measured in a stable measure of value such as gold, the Dow hit a new six-year low early this year. Do the recent multi-year highs in some of the major indices mean everything is strong and running smoothly as the talking heads on Bubblevision proclaim? We should soon see. The wisest defense in this environment is to have the bulk of your assets in gold and silver yet the vast majority as yet have none. What are YOU waiting for?

http://www.safehaven.com/images/talk.gifTalk Back (http://www.safehaven.com/comments-4886.htm)

Richard J. Greene CFA
Thunder Capital Management (http://www.thundercapital.com/)

mama mia

01.04.2006, 22:13

Stocking Up On Silver And Gold
Curtis Hesler, Professional Timing Service 03.31.06, 9:15 AM ET

MISSOULA, Mont. -
Oh my gosh. I think I need to put myself in manacles. I have been watching silver zoom higher over the last week or more, and I have been sitting on my hands. I make it a practice never to chase strength--that is the best way I know of to get into serious trouble in the markets. Nevertheless, it is getting more difficult each day, and although discipline is paramount in a successful investment program, I may need a stronger restraint.

Curt Hesler's recommended Suncor Energy on a dip to $52 in November. By February it had gained 58%...and now trades at $77. Click here for three new energy buys in Professional Timing Service.
Silver has been the star since last fall when it left the $7.00 level. It marched right up to $11.00 this week and managed a wiggle or two along the way. But over the last three weeks, it has been on a regular rocket ride.

Gold has been no slouch either. After putting in a high at $585 June basis in early February, it has been sliding sideways between $585 per ounce and $540 per ounce. It is pushing the top of its trading band again now, but it hasn't been as big a deal as silver. Silver is where the greatest seduction lies.

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Momentum In Mining Shares

The mining shares have been marching to their own drummer during all of this. Although the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) reached a peak a bit earlier than gold at $151.90 on Jan. 31, it dropped about 20% top-to-bottom. Gold has only seen a total retracement of 7.6% since the first of the year, and it is currently closer to its highs than its lows. The mining shares as represented by the XAU have recovered, but they are not threatening their highs just yet.

The exception is in the silver stocks. They have been stronger than the XAU--or gold or silver, for that matter. It sure is tempting to jump in here, but I am seeing all sorts of caution flags.

Traditional overbought-oversold measures are warning that one should wait for a better opportunity. Silver is in dire need of a rest, and I see cyclical highs due right now. On a seasonal basis, we typically see a prime buying opportunity in the metals in May, which is also when my work indicates the next cyclical lows will form.

It is time to overcome the emotions in the metals market and employ some discipline and reason. These markets need to take a break.

One can emphatically argue the strongly bullish longer-term fundamentals. Supply and demand is out of balance in favor of higher metals prices, while the dollar is vulnerable to some serious downside adjustment. And there will likely not be peace in the Middle East until the countries there campaign for statehood. Iran is a bigger tar baby than Iraq, and the West is anxious to start poking around.

There are very few fundamental negatives against owning gold--just a few against buying it at this time. We are faced with bearish, short-term technical factors in a strong long-term bull market.

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Pure Play On Silver

There are two possible courses of action. One is to be disciplined and wait for prices to sell off some, and then buy. If you are looking for what to buy, my main suggestion would be Silver Wheaton (amex: SLW - news - people ). This little wonder was born out of a defensive move by Wheaton River Minerals (amex: WHT - news - people ) against the hostile takeover attempt last year by Coeur d'Alene Mines (nyse: CDE - news - people ).

Former Wheaton River CEO Ian Telfer spun off Wheaton's silver interests into a separate company, which is Silver Wheaton. However, the clever thing is that Silver Wheaton only owns silver production from various mines around the globe; they don't actually operate any mines or even own any equipment. You see, silver is produced as a consequence of mining for other metals like copper, zinc, lead and gold. In a sense, Wheaton is similar to a royalty company.

Silver Wheaton only has five employees. They describe themselves as the only public mining company with 100% of their revenue from silver production and expect this production to grow to 20 million ounces in 2009. They are also unhedged.

If I were going to buy something in the current market and pay too much, it would be Silver Wheaton. I see silver well over $25.00 in the future; and likely, it will surpass its lofty highs set back in 1980. It may well sell back some, but not likely all that much.

I would suggest that if you are impatient, you buy some here and then buy more if profit-taking sets in. A year or two from now, this company stands to become something much greater than it is today.

The other approach is for if you are the patient sort (as I am when I am unchained from my desk). If you are, I would be a buyer of Silver Wheaton under $10.00. It has nice technical support between $7.00 and $8.00, but that doesn't mean it will actually fall that far back. Why not nibble a little here and buy more during weakness?

Special Offer: Click here for three junior gold miners recommended by Professional Timing Service that you should have in your precious metals portfolio right now.

A Tale Of Two Gold Corporations

Now, let me tell you about two gold mining companies. One is called U.S. Gold (nasdaq: USGL.OB - news - people ), and the other is called Goldcorp (nyse: GG - news - people ). If you are definitely the patient sort, consider U.S. Gold. They are selling just above $7 per share, so you really need to wait for this one to pull back before buying.

Trading in these OTC bulletin board stocks can be pretty thin at times. Unless you really know what you are doing, only buy with limit orders. I would put my orders in at or below $5.00 and see if you get lucky.

U.S. Gold is being developed by Chairman and CEO Rob McEwen, who came from Goldcorp where he turned the Vancouver-based miner from a $50 million investment company into what is perhaps the best gold-mining operation on the planet with a market capitalization pushing $10 billion.

After Wheaton River Minerals was acquired by Goldcorp in a friendly arrangement amid the nasty Coeur d'Alene affair, Ian Telfer moved from CEO of Wheaton Minerals and took the helm at Goldcorp. McEwen left Goldcorp and took over control of USGL.

McEwen is currently in the process of making some serious acquisitions. U.S. Gold has immense potential with their properties in Nevada, and both Telfer and McEwen are, in my estimation, the best operators in the business.

The time is not ripe just yet, but a coming consolidation in the precious metals arena will offer some superior opportunities to take advantage of the next up leg in this long-term bull market.

http://www.forbes.com/2006/03/31/gold-silver-wheaton-in_ch_0330soapbox_inl.html?partner=yahootix

mama mia

03.04.2006, 19:24

Gold set to become even scarcer
By Rebecca Bream in London
Published: April 2 2006 20:21 | Last updated: April 2 2006 20:21

Bobby Godsell, chief executive of AngloGold Ashanti, predicted that worldwide gold production would stagnate, then fall in the coming years as large deposits of the precious metal become scarce.

He said this would support the rally in the gold price, which last week hit a 25-year high of $588 per ounce.

The South African company, the world’s third biggest gold producer, mined 6.2m ounces of gold in 2005 but expects production to be lower this year, between 5.8m and 6.1m ounces, and then increase again in 2007 as new projects come on stream.

But in an interview with the FT, Mr Godsell warned that the gold industry will find it hard to keep up current levels of production. “All of the gold majors are finding it difficult to replace their reserves. New mine production will be flat-to-declining.”

RBC Capital Markets in London estimated that total gold production would rise slightly in 2006 and 2007, be flat in 2008 and start to fall in 2009. “There hasn’t been a big gold discovery for years,” said an analyst.

Mr Godsell said: “Gold is precious because it is scarce. Twenty years ago the majority of gold was produced by four old world countries: South Africa, Australia, Canada and the US. In the future it will be anything but. Tomorrow’s ounces of gold are going to be in interesting countries.”

AngloGold, which has expanded away from its base in South Africa as the country’s reserves of gold dwindle, is focusing on exploration in high potential but high risk areas such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, Mongolia and Russia.

The high gold price has stimulated exploration activity by smaller mining companies, but Mr Godsell is sceptical about whether this will lead to increased gold supplies as rising costs threaten to kill off these projects. “The juniors have a better track record of finding ore bodies [than major gold companies], but to build a mine now you are talking about $500m for an open pit and at least $1bn for an underground mine,” he said.

Speculation that AngloGold would try to grow by takeover has increased since Anglo American, a UK-listed mining group, said it would cut its stake in the company from 51 per cent to 41 per cent. After Anglo American cedes direct control AngloGold would be “more fleet of foot” in making decisions on mergers and acquisitions, said Mr Godsell. “We look at everything and we have exploratory discussions, but we have no announceable deals.”

Rumours have suggested AngloGold may buy Gold Fields of South Africa, the fourth biggest gold miner, to form the world’s largest gold company. “There are some synergies, we both have mines in South Africa, Ghana and Australia. If we could put together a good deal that would be in the interests of shareholders that would be a great thing to do.”

But he added: “Most M&A activity is value-destructive and this may be particularly true in the gold sector as gold shares trade at a premium.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b997c8bc-c262-11da-ac03-0000779e2340.html

...also Barren sind immer gut :D

mama mia

05.04.2006, 10:13

die beste aussagen, in märz mal zusammengestellt:

Ted Butler, Investment Rarities
"If someone had asked me to devise a method, or scheme, that could propel silver prices sharply higher, I don’t think I could have dreamed up anything more potentially bullish than the Barclays ETF.

At the heart of the silver story is the structural deficit and disappearing inventories. For more than 60 years, we have continuously consumed more silver than has been produced on a current basis, necessitating the draw down of inventories every year. As I have repeatedly stated, there is no more bullish or temporary a condition possible in any commodity than such a circumstance. In time, it guarantees a price rise sufficient to eliminate the deficit. The reason the silver deficit could exist for so many years was because so much silver had been accumulated through the ages that it took many decades to eat up those inventories. When inventories cease to be available, silver hits a brick wall. Prices must rise and the deficit end.

What the proposed ETF promises to achieve is the acceleration of the time that available silver inventory will run out and we will smack into a brick wall…The largest single pool of investment capital in the world exists in institutional and individual retirement accounts. The total amount of capital in this category runs into the trillions and trillion of dollars. In the US, much of this giant pool of assets that covers institutional pension plans is governed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), which sets standards in how these funds should be safeguarded. Very simply stated, fiduciary responsibilities by plan administrators must be conducted by "prudent man" principles, including what type of assets could be invested in with plan funds. Again, staying simple, this meant only investing in sound securities, mainly stocks and bonds. Commodities or commodities futures contracts were strictly forbidden.

Commodity ETFs change all that. Because they are structured as a common stock, they make it possible for investment by many types of accounts, where investment was not legal or possible before. This is what I would have never been able to imagine – someone actually came up with a way to connect or link the largest pool of investment capital in the world to the one market that could least handle (at least on an orderly pricing basis) an infusion of such funds, real silver. Just to put it into perspective, one-tenth of one percent of trillions is billions. I don’t see how billions of dollars could flow smoothly into the silver market. It’s like trying to stuff ten pounds of ice cream into a one-pound container – no matter how you do it; you’re going to make a mess. This is the other reason why I was sure the regulators would reject the silver ETF.

By the time this silver story plays out, the $50 Hunt Brothers episode will merely be a footnote in silver history."

Steve Saville, Speculative Investor
"It is very unlikely, however, that the US$ will ever COLLAPSE in value relative to any other fiat currency. The reason is that ALL of these currencies are in the process of being inflated into oblivion; it's just that over the next few years the dollar is likely to move towards that ultimate destination at a modestly faster pace than some of the other major currencies."

Jim Puplava, Financial Sense
"Inflation can manifest itself in either of two ways. It can show up in the real economy in the price of goods and services as it is doing now or it can surface in the asset markets in the form of higher prices for assets be it bonds, stocks, commodities or real estate. Just look at the '80s and '90s for financial inflation and this new decade for hard asset inflation in the price of real estate and commodities.

This brings me to the next reinflation effort which has now begun. Why else would M3, which has been growing at an annual rate of 8%, no longer be reported by the Fed? Monetary inflation is the reason. The U.S. is spending and borrowing too much money. Our current rate of spending is out of control and beyond balancing through tax increases, so monetary inflation through monetization is next. As the Fed goes on hold—perhaps after the Fed funds rate is taken to 5-5.25%—the dollar will begin its relentless decline."

Puru Saxena, Money Matters
"The absurd money-creation continues. Slowly yet surely, the "stealth" confiscation of savings is gaining momentum as money loses its value. Central banks claim that they are raising interest-rates to fight inflation. At the same time they are slipping in more rum into the punch bowl, thus creating just what they say they want to fight - inflation! Take a look at the latest year-on-year money supply growth-rates around the world:

Australia + 9.1%
Britain + 11.7%
Canada + 7.7%
Denmark + 14.7%
US + 8.1%
Euro area + 7.3%

When I glance at these mind-boggling figures, at least I don't see any monetary tightening taking place! Make no mistake, this excessive liquidity is inflation that banks are creating and this inflation is destroying the purchasing power of your hard-earned money. As asset-prices continue to benefit from this monetary insanity, the wealth inequality is getting wider resulting in social unrest in several parts of the world. The ultimate truth about inflation is that it always benefits the rich who are able to ride the inflationary wave by investing in assets, whereas the poor become even more impoverished as things continue to become more expensive."

Howard Ruff, Ruff Times
"Silver will not be just twice as profitable as gold in the next few years, but many times more profitable--maybe ten times more profitable. Silver is in huge short supply; the inventories are gone! Unlike gold, government can’t dump the silver in the market to artificially suppress the price because they have none. Silver is still the poor-man’s gold, and the time is not far away when it will be difficult to find any silver at any price short of $100 an ounce."

Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
"What happens to the world economy if the bond market conundrum is suddenly resolved and real long-term interest rates revert toward historical norms? My guess is that this is not good news for what has been a liquidity-driven, increasingly asset-dependent global economy."

Jim Willie, GoldenJackass
"A return to normalcy is poppycock, never to happen! We have gone so far afield, so far from anything recognizable or rectifiable, that normalcy is not even remotely possible in the gold and crude oil markets. The USFed will tighten until they cause a crisis, then deny their role, then clean it up, probably followed by easing of interest rates. The next LTCM fiasco lies around the corner, under the surface, ready to be revealed, sure to wreck havoc. Gold and crude oil will be given a grand assist when it happens, not if. It is guaranteed since the USFed can no longer even define what “neutrality” means in its policy. Besides, what it says usually obscures its actual policy motive. My firm belief is that the Enron model was hatched from the USGovt incubator, where it continues."

Doug Noland, Prudent Bear
"As easy as it seems that it should have been, I don’t feel I effectively countered the absolute nonsense that our Current Account Deficit is driven by unrelenting global 'capital' inflows. And I have not even come close to shedding light on the reality that unchecked – and inevitably unwieldy and unstable - global finance has been a commanding force within what the New Paradigm crowd trumpets as virtuous free-market 'globalization.'

Why then, you may question, do I suspect that Credit Bubble-like analysis will garner more attention going forward? Well, I believe the Fed and global central bankers may finally comprehend that they are facing a very serious problem – that Credit and speculative excesses begetting greater excess demand a true tightening of global financial conditions. Importantly, hope that a cooling housing market will obligingly chill the Bubbling U.S. economy is fading rapidly. As the 'Flow of Funds' confirmed, the Credit system is currently firing on all cylinders and the Bubble economy has a full head of steam. The U.S. Current Account and Global Imbalances are poised to only worsen, fueled by Bubble dynamics that now command Credit systems and asset markets around the globe. Expectations for a slowing U.S. are shifting to fears of a runaway Global (Credit)."

Reg Howe, GATA
"Alan Greenspan confessed to the gold price suppression scheme. The European Central Bank confessed to the gold price suppression scheme. Barrick Gold confessed to the gold price suppression scheme in U.S. District Court in New Orleans on February 28, 2003, The Reserve Bank of Australia confessed to the gold price suppression scheme in its annual report for 2003. And now the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks, has confessed to the gold price suppression scheme by saying 'the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful.'"

Richard Daughty, the Mogambo Guru
"The unusual action of silver and gold here lately is the result of lots and lots of guys, businesses and banks on the hook for billions and billions of dollars in short sales, year after year after year. The rise in the prices of gold and silver means financial death for them. So buy them with confidence, perhaps even with a little malice against those creeps, as they can't keep it up for much longer, and the prices of gold and silver will shoot to the moon when they finally give up."

James Turk, GoldMoney
"The federal government desperately needs strong economic activity in order to generate the highest possible tax revenue to decrease its reliance on debt. But rising interest rates dampen economic activity. Rising interest rates also have an unfavorable impact on expenditures: A 6% average interest rate on $8.2 trillion of debt results in a higher interest expense burden than a 4.6% rate.

Thus, higher interest rates restrain tax revenue while increasing the level of expenditures. Together these factors worsen the budget deficit, which then causes the federal government to borrow even more money. The resulting higher level of debt leads to a greater interest expense burden, further worsening the deficit. Consequently, the federal government is rapidly moving to the point where borrowing becomes necessary to meet its interest expense obligations. This condition is not sustainable. If the vicious circle is not addressed and corrected, it will turn into a death spiral in which the dollar is destroyed."

John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Front Line
"Why are home supplies rising? The simple answer is that demand is falling. The University of Michigan has an index which measures the intention of people to buy a home in the near future. It is at its lowest level in 15 years. The National Association of Homebuilders Index which tracks a number of things but includes potential buying traffic in new home developments is also dropping dramatically in the last few months.

Bear markets begin when growth in real consumer spending peaks and beings to slow. I think I made the case above that consumer spending is going to face a real uphill battle as cash-out financing slows down, higher energy costs don't go away, higher interest rates translate into higher mortgage and credit card payments on top of legislation requiring higher minimum payments on credit card balances."

Texas Congressman Ron Paul
"If there were a 'housing hurricane,' it would be just like a real hurricane. You spend whatever people demand you spend and worry about it later. FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC have a line of credit from the Treasury, and they would use it if they had to. And I'm sure other mortgage companies would qualify. Congress would do whatever they feel they have to do…There is no historical example where paper money has lasted for a long period of time. It works for a while until the trust in that money is totally undermined, and then it ends up in an economic calamity, for the most part, in runaway inflation or other serious dislocations."

Paul McCulley, PIMCO
"The end of the housing boom will come soon, we think, and when it does, sales volume in the property market will reverse wickedly. Housing prices don't crash, but volume of transactions does, as sellers refuse to face reality on pricing and buyers wait them out."

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital
"This week, as statistics revealed that China has surpassed Japan as the world’s largest holder of foreign reserves, the U.S. Congress continues to threaten China with 27% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. The move, which is akin to a cornered gunman turning the pistol on himself and threatening to pull the trigger, reveals the extent to which American politicians fail to comprehend the true nature of the current Sino-U.S relationship.

In desperate need of capital, America is hardly in a position to insult those providing it, or dictate the terms by which they do so. However, the latest tough talk on China comes shortly after Congressional action which blocked key purchases of American assets by foreign interests. Such posturing sends a very dangerous message to our creditors. If as a nation we have decided to sell off our cows to pay for imported milk, we can not complain when our trading partners actually show up to collect the animals.

As a result of the unprecedented foreign-financed consumption binge in the U.S., it is likely that nearly every major U.S. asset will ultimately pass into foreign control, including most companies in the S&P 500 and trophy properties in major U.S. cities. As America lacks the industrial capacity necessary to redeem its IOU’s with actual consumer goods, access to capital goods and domestic assets is all that gives its currency value. Restrictions on the ability to acquire such assets will diminish foreign interest in accepting dollars in exchange for exports, and will dissuade foreign governments from holding huge reserves of dollars that they cannot hope to spend."

Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust Company
"Again, so what if mortgage defaults are on the rise? No biggie except that U.S. commercial banks have a record exposure to the mortgage market. About 62% of bank earning assets are mortgage-related. (I do not have access to the data to determine what part of this mortgage exposure pertains to commercial properties). What I'm driving at here is the potential for a bust in housing to cripple the banking system. History tells us that a crippled banking system renders central banks less potent in combating economic downturns and promoting robust recoveries. In other words, if a housing bust led to large credit losses to the banking system, Chairman Bernanke could cut the fed funds rate to 1% and be surprised that a low interest rate did not have the same magic for him as it had for his predecessor."

James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
"There are more values in your hotel mini-bar than in the U.S. bond market,"

Eric Andrews, Financial Sense University
"In 2008, the first Boomers will begin retirement and sell their stocks, bonds, and other paper promises into the market to pay for rent, health care, and gasoline. Who will buy them? The younger generation makes far less per hour, and even if their wages were equal, there are not enough of them to offset a 30-year supply of selling pressure. Worse, as their selling drives the market down, no one could buy even if they wanted to, because who would buy a stock when the tide of the market will sink for 30 years? Our Generational Transfer problem can be mostly righted by canceling Medicare and increasing the Social Security retirement age to well over 70. Not so the stock and paper markets."

I. M. Vronsky, Gold-Eagle
"Gold & Silver Equities' fantastic performance in the last 5 years will slowly mesmerize and galvanize investor attention to the point Gold Fever contagion will spread through the world -- as frantic investors seek to place their hard earned savings in vehicles demonstrating intrinsic value and high liquidity…like gold and silver equities."

und das ist bereits die mainstream.........., ich fürchte, so einfach wird's nicht gehen :schwitz

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=900685#post900685)

:supi :verbeug

mama mia

05.04.2006, 10:25

http://www.goldmood.com/explorationgold.html

:supi Link mit unzähligen kleinen Stinker-Minen, Charts usw.

mama mia

07.04.2006, 09:43

moin leute :)

bitte aufmerksam lesen:

"........ If I started to hear and read stories in the popular media that included these topics, then I would conclude that the real silver story was being learned. But there is one topic that would tell me the word was really getting out, if it were to appear. That topic, of course, is the out-sized short position; principally the COMEX short position. This is the subject that first told me, more than 20 years ago, that there was something definitely wrong in silver. For two decades, I have yet to come across anyone who could take the other side of the debate, namely, to show that there was anything legitimate about the COMEX silver short position.

The COMEX silver short position, no matter how you slice it or dice it, stands out from any other commodity. Let me count the ways. The gross COMEX short position (open interest), for futures alone, is now over 700 million ounces. This is greater than total world annual mine production and greater than any world inventory amount than I have seen published. In no other commodity can this statement be made. The net commercial COMEX silver short position is also larger, by a disproportionate amount, than any other commodity when compared to real world production and inventories. Ditto the net concentrated short position, where a handful of large traders are short more silver than in any other commodity. In the 20+ year-history of the Commitment of Traders Report (COT), COMEX silver is the only commodity where the commercial have never been net long.

You must remember, the only reason that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) even compiles and reports the concentration ratios of the largest traders in all commodities is as a safeguard against manipulation. But why do they even bother? My point is that why does the CFTC go the trouble to keep and publish such concentrated positions if they don’t intend to do anything about those positions, no matter how large and concentrated they may grow?

Currently, there is a vocal debate about the prospective Barclays silver ETF and what effect the proposed maximum filing of 130 million ounces, or any amount up to that maximum filing amount, could have on the market. But why is there no debate about the 4 largest traders on the COMEX who are already net short more than 200 million ounces and what effect that has had on prices? Or about the 8 largest traders who are already short almost 300 million ounces?

I know that I have been in a distinct minority in harping on this silver short position. I know many ignore it or dismiss it with shallow explanations, like "there’s a long for every short, so what’s the problem?" I know that regulators and exchange officials have always denied it was the problem that I have claimed it to be. That doesn’t bother me, and I look forward to being judged on this issue in the fullness of time.

Along with the 60-year continuous structural deficit, the depleted inventories, the paucity of below ground remaining resources, and the stunning rarity of silver compared to gold, the uneconomic short position in COMEX silver is key to the real silver story. It is the resolution of this outrageous short position that will dictate the major moves in the price of silver.

Make no mistake; this short position must be resolved. It is not possible for a short position that is larger than all the silver in the world, or could be produced, to last indefinitely. The only question is how quickly investors of the world learn the real silver story and rush to take advantage of it......"

http://www.investmentrarities.com/04-05-06.html

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=901674#post901674)

:verbeug

mama mia

10.04.2006, 13:02

Big moves ahead in silver - April 9th 2006

It’s over 6 months since I wrote my last public article on silver and we are up more than $4 since then. Many things have changed in the silver market the past few months, but one remains more or less the same: the rather large COMEX commercial short position. Will this move in silver break the commercials backs and force them to liquidate a more significant part of the paper losses that run in the hundreds of millions? Will we see a massive commercial short covering rally? Or will the commercials be able to trigger yet another sell off in silver and cover their shorts at (much) lower levels?

Let’s take a look some of the major changes in the markets the past few months. We will start with the silver ETF. The Silver ETF could be a few days or weeks from approval. If somebody would have asked me only 3 months ago about where the Silver ETF will stand in early April I would not have believed that we would have SEC approval. I’ll believe the ETF will trade when I’ll see it trade. I would not be surprised if some obstacles would still turn up at this point. Yet, rationally thinking, I guess I believe we will see a Silver ETF listed on the AMEX in a matter of weeks. The implications of the ETF will be significant.

Another significant change is the amount of attention silver has gotten from the mainstream media. Even though much of the coverage in silver is what you can expect from the mainstream, I would still say that almost all publicity is good for silver. Silver hasn’t been on the radar screen of many investors the past 20 years. If the media manages to attract any new interest to silver I believe the fundamentals will eventually speak for themselves. That is, if some new money manager takes the time to analyze silver for a few hours or a full day the structural production deficit, limited influence of traditional photography, depleting inventories, increased industrial demand in both known and new application and in general a very tight market, will speak for themselves. As a result we will get new investment demand for silver. With the amount of liquidity seeking good investment opportunities in today’s global economy the tiny silver market does not need to attract much new investor attention for it to have significant implications on the price.

At the same time the dollar rally has lost its momentum and the dollar has been moving more or less sideways for the past few months. If the dollar resumes it long term downtrend in the coming weeks and months this will aid gold and silver on their way to higher levels.

With these positive developments for silver investors (not to mention the $4 rise in price) one thing that has not changed too much the past few months is the big commercial net short position in COMEX silver. The commercial side has basically stayed with their shorts they accumulated at prices below $8/oz the previous fall. Silver has moved up $4 after that. On thing is for sure: these past 6 months did not unfold as the Commercials hoped. The question is will they be able to get out of their currently huge paper losses by yet again triggering a massive fund sell off or not? Will it be different this time?

Previously similar COT structures have resulted in sharp sell offs but I’m not so sure it will happen this time and even if it does, I’m not sure it will happen in the immediate future. That being said, I’m not very surprised even if it would happen.

It is however worth to notice that even though there has not been any significant liquidation of the huge commercial short position some capitulation seems to be taking place on the commercial side. The commercial shorts have gone down a bit more than 10000 contracts from 117726 in late November to 107566 now in early April. At the same time silver has gone up from $8 to $12/oz.

http://www.kultakeskus.com/images/20060409_silver_COT.jpg

The commercials have certainly tried to trigger a sell off at least 15-20 times the past few months without too much success. I’ve watched the market go down 15-20 cents during European market hours only to see it rebound strongly later on and often end up higher. This kind of strong rebound with significant buying coming in during a sell off didn’t much happen in silver before last fall. Clearly there is much stronger buyers in the Silver market than the commercials are used to. The question is how strong hands are these new buyers? Are they in for a quick profit in the anticipation of the silver ETF or are they believers in $20+ silver in the quite short term and intend to roll over their longs no matter what? The answer is, I don’t know. I guess there are new buyers of all sorts, both short term speculators but also new longs who are in for the long term for fundamental reasons.

I’m not a believer in commercial supremacy in general, but anybody who has been following silver COT for the past several year must admit that the commercials have done quite well in silver (until maybe these past few months). The reason I follow the COT structure in Silver quite closely is that as Ted Butler pointed out in his recent article, I also see the big commercial short position as “the only negative” for silver.

I want to emphasize that I am and remain strongly invested in Silver and intend to for many years to come. I’ve liquidated a part of our futures positions last week at $11.42 and $11.89 knowing that I might “regret” this the following week. The liquidation represents only about 5% of our portfolio so there has not been any significant profit taking on our part. In our share portfolio we’ve done some restructuring but essentially invested the money back to the silver market one way or the other. (E.g. we have bought more physical silver and taken delivery with some of the phenomenal profits we have made in some silver juniors lately.)

The last thing I would like to see is a silver investor selling any of his/her silver or silver shares after taking a look at the COT structure and not considering how the market is different now from what it has been. A large commercial short position does not mean a sell off is imminent.

I do believe the market must take a breather at some point before the years end but I’m not sure it will be now (for cyclical or whatever reasons) and my price target for silver by years end is well above $15 so why be too concerned about the short term? I simply intend to emphasize buys with the small cash position we hold and if no great buy opportunities materialize, I’ll just enjoy the ride.

Even with this big commercial short position in silver, I have my money on the long side. One way or another, I think we have big moves ahead in the silver price. The commercials are definitely being squeezed and we might not see a big sell off but rather a quite explosive move to the upside if we see the ETF trading and the commercials covering their shorts more seriously to rising prices. (....also last uns hoffrn :rolleyes )

April 9th 2006
Carl Löfberg
Tampere, Finland

http://www.kultakeskus.com/20060409_silver.htm

mama mia

10.04.2006, 13:02

Big moves ahead in silver - April 9th 2006

It’s over 6 months since I wrote my last public article on silver and we are up more than $4 since then. Many things have changed in the silver market the past few months, but one remains more or less the same: the rather large COMEX commercial short position. Will this move in silver break the commercials backs and force them to liquidate a more significant part of the paper losses that run in the hundreds of millions? Will we see a massive commercial short covering rally? Or will the commercials be able to trigger yet another sell off in silver and cover their shorts at (much) lower levels?

Let’s take a look some of the major changes in the markets the past few months. We will start with the silver ETF. The Silver ETF could be a few days or weeks from approval. If somebody would have asked me only 3 months ago about where the Silver ETF will stand in early April I would not have believed that we would have SEC approval. I’ll believe the ETF will trade when I’ll see it trade. I would not be surprised if some obstacles would still turn up at this point. Yet, rationally thinking, I guess I believe we will see a Silver ETF listed on the AMEX in a matter of weeks. The implications of the ETF will be significant.

Another significant change is the amount of attention silver has gotten from the mainstream media. Even though much of the coverage in silver is what you can expect from the mainstream, I would still say that almost all publicity is good for silver. Silver hasn’t been on the radar screen of many investors the past 20 years. If the media manages to attract any new interest to silver I believe the fundamentals will eventually speak for themselves. That is, if some new money manager takes the time to analyze silver for a few hours or a full day the structural production deficit, limited influence of traditional photography, depleting inventories, increased industrial demand in both known and new application and in general a very tight market, will speak for themselves. As a result we will get new investment demand for silver. With the amount of liquidity seeking good investment opportunities in today’s global economy the tiny silver market does not need to attract much new investor attention for it to have significant implications on the price.

At the same time the dollar rally has lost its momentum and the dollar has been moving more or less sideways for the past few months. If the dollar resumes it long term downtrend in the coming weeks and months this will aid gold and silver on their way to higher levels.

With these positive developments for silver investors (not to mention the $4 rise in price) one thing that has not changed too much the past few months is the big commercial net short position in COMEX silver. The commercial side has basically stayed with their shorts they accumulated at prices below $8/oz the previous fall. Silver has moved up $4 after that. On thing is for sure: these past 6 months did not unfold as the Commercials hoped. The question is will they be able to get out of their currently huge paper losses by yet again triggering a massive fund sell off or not? Will it be different this time?

Previously similar COT structures have resulted in sharp sell offs but I’m not so sure it will happen this time and even if it does, I’m not sure it will happen in the immediate future. That being said, I’m not very surprised even if it would happen.

It is however worth to notice that even though there has not been any significant liquidation of the huge commercial short position some capitulation seems to be taking place on the commercial side. The commercial shorts have gone down a bit more than 10000 contracts from 117726 in late November to 107566 now in early April. At the same time silver has gone up from $8 to $12/oz.

http://www.kultakeskus.com/images/20060409_silver_COT.jpg

The commercials have certainly tried to trigger a sell off at least 15-20 times the past few months without too much success. I’ve watched the market go down 15-20 cents during European market hours only to see it rebound strongly later on and often end up higher. This kind of strong rebound with significant buying coming in during a sell off didn’t much happen in silver before last fall. Clearly there is much stronger buyers in the Silver market than the commercials are used to. The question is how strong hands are these new buyers? Are they in for a quick profit in the anticipation of the silver ETF or are they believers in $20+ silver in the quite short term and intend to roll over their longs no matter what? The answer is, I don’t know. I guess there are new buyers of all sorts, both short term speculators but also new longs who are in for the long term for fundamental reasons.

I’m not a believer in commercial supremacy in general, but anybody who has been following silver COT for the past several year must admit that the commercials have done quite well in silver (until maybe these past few months). The reason I follow the COT structure in Silver quite closely is that as Ted Butler pointed out in his recent article, I also see the big commercial short position as “the only negative” for silver.

I want to emphasize that I am and remain strongly invested in Silver and intend to for many years to come. I’ve liquidated a part of our futures positions last week at $11.42 and $11.89 knowing that I might “regret” this the following week. The liquidation represents only about 5% of our portfolio so there has not been any significant profit taking on our part. In our share portfolio we’ve done some restructuring but essentially invested the money back to the silver market one way or the other. (E.g. we have bought more physical silver and taken delivery with some of the phenomenal profits we have made in some silver juniors lately.)

The last thing I would like to see is a silver investor selling any of his/her silver or silver shares after taking a look at the COT structure and not considering how the market is different now from what it has been. A large commercial short position does not mean a sell off is imminent.

I do believe the market must take a breather at some point before the years end but I’m not sure it will be now (for cyclical or whatever reasons) and my price target for silver by years end is well above $15 so why be too concerned about the short term? I simply intend to emphasize buys with the small cash position we hold and if no great buy opportunities materialize, I’ll just enjoy the ride.

Even with this big commercial short position in silver, I have my money on the long side. One way or another, I think we have big moves ahead in the silver price. The commercials are definitely being squeezed and we might not see a big sell off but rather a quite explosive move to the upside if we see the ETF trading and the commercials covering their shorts more seriously to rising prices. (....also lasst uns hoffen :rolleyes )

April 9th 2006
Carl Löfberg
Tampere, Finland

http://www.kultakeskus.com/20060409_silver.htm

mama mia

10.04.2006, 17:23

Silber: Das Geschäft des Jahrhunderts?

Leser des Artikels: 3725

Silberinvestoren haben aktuell jede Menge Grund zur Freude! Silber läuft und läuft! Nun kommen bereits die ersten Kommentatoren, die eine kurzfristige Silberknappheit auf den Terminmärkten erkennen wollen. Doch was steckt dahinter?

Da ich zahlreiche Anfragen in der Vergangenheit zu den Terminkurven bekommen habe, möchte ich das Grundkonzept hier noch einmal kurz erläutern:

Eine Terminkurve zeigt die Termkurse eines Basiswertes nach der unterschiedlichen Fälligkeit der Futureskontrakte an. Der Preis der Futureskontrakte lässt sich im Grunde sehr einfach berechnen. Die Differenz besteht aus den Zinsen (Opportunitätskosten des Futuresverkäufers) und den Lagerkosten des Gutes. Bei Financial Futures (also Futures auf Indizes die durch Barausgleich eingelöst werden entfallen die Lagerkosten und es schlagen nur die Zinsen zu Buche.)

Das klingt in der Theorie immer recht komplex, praktisch gesehen ist es jedoch ganz einfach zu verstehen. Nehmen wir an Sie haben die Alternative heute einen Apfel um EUR 1,00 bei dem Obsthändler Ihres Vertrauens zu erwerben, oder alternativ sich heute schon den Preis für den Apfel ein Jahr im Voraus zu sichern. Entscheiden Sie sich für Alternative zwei (weil Sie beispielsweise daran glauben, die Apfelpreise der gewünschten Qualität werden auf Grund einer Wurmplage in die Höhe schnellen), so vereinbaren Sie ein unbedingtes Termingeschäft mit dem Händler (also rechtlich gesehen so etwas wie einen Longfuture auf 1 Stück Apfel).

Der Händler bindet sich nun durch diesen Vertrag rechtlich daran, Ihnen die Ware liefern zu müssen. Er muss also das Kapital für den Einkauf und die Lagerung reservieren; dh es steht ihm nicht für andere Investitionen zur Verfügung. Angenommen der risikolose Zinssatz für einjähriges Geld beträgt 5 %, so entgeht ihm mindestens dieser Ertrag. Sie können wiederum Ihr Geld, das Sie erst in einem Jahr für den Apfel bezahlen müssen, zu diesem Zinssatz bequem veranlagen und erhalten somit 5 ct Zinsen. Da der Apfelhändler nicht auf der Baumschule war, wird er Ihnen die 5 ct bei Vertragsabschluss bereits einrechnen. Sie werden also, wenn der Apfel im Geschäft EUR 1,00 kostet, für den gleichen Apfel auf Termin 1 Jahr mindestens 1,05 ct bezahlen müssen. Der Apfelhändler weiß jedoch auch noch, dass ihm für die Lagerung jedes Apfels ca. 2 ct Lagerkosten anfallen. Der endgültige Terminpreis wird beim Abschluss also EUR 1,07 betragen.

Geht man von einer flachen Zinskurve aus, und von linear verlaufenden Lagerkosten so würde die Terminkurve für den Apfel wie folgt aussehen.

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/60 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/60)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/60)

Anhand dieses Apfel-Future-Beispiels kann man sehr leicht erkennen, dass ein Aufschlag für Vorwärtskäufe von Rohstoffen durchaus logisch ist. Diesen Zustand, dass die späteren Monate über den früheren notieren, nennt man in der Fachterminologie Contango, das Gegenteil Backwardation.

Nun kann es aber auch b

Es kann aber auch beispielsweise ein Hoch in der Mitte der Terminkurve geben. Wenn bei Agrargütern beispielsweise die Ernte für das nächste Jahr bereits im Vorhinein zerstört wird, zB durch Unwetter, dann notieren die Futures welche diese Ernte abdecken höher, aber die vorderen und hinteren Monate niedrig.

Soviel zur Theorie. Doch was heißt das Ganze jetzt für den Silberpreis? Werfen wir also einen prüfenden Blick auf die Terminkurve des Silbercharts.

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/74 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/74)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/74)

Betrachtet man die Kurve mit den relativen Kursen, so kann man lediglich erkennen, dass sie zu beginn auf eine normale Kurve (in Contango) hindeutet und sich dann jedoch ab Ende 2006 bis Ende 2008 abflacht und 2009 in Backwardation übergeht. Verändern wir den Chart also ein bisschen, und schauen uns die Preise relativ an.

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/75 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/75)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/75)

Nun wird der Chart schon um einiges aussagekräftiger. Man sieht nun, dass sich der maximale Terminaufschlag auf 1,65 % über dem nahesten Futurekontrakt steht. Da dieser Aufschlag jedoch für das Jahr 2008 gilt, sollte es zum Nachdenken anregen. Warum sollte jemand so altruistisch sein und Silber auf zwei Jahre im Voraus zu einem Kurs verkaufen, der nur 1,65 % über dem aktuellen Kurs liegt?

Natürlich könnte man ganz klar argumentieren, dass der Markt davon ausgeht, dass Silber im Jahre 2008 niedriger stehen wird als heute und daher niemand bereit ist mehr dafür zu bezahlen. Blickt man jedoch auf die Silberpreisentwicklung und die Angebots-/Nachfragesituation, so wird man diese Version sehr schnell ad acta legen.

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/76 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/76)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/76)

Am besten zeigt das der relative Vergleich der Terminkurve von Gold und Silber auf, dass Silber wohl noch nicht am Ende seiner Kräfte steht.

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/70 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/70)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/70)

Gold und Silber müssten theoretisch über den gleichen Terminaufschlag verfügen, wenn man in die Berechnung nur die Kosten für Zinsen, Lagerung und Versicherung einbezieht, für Silber vielleicht sogar etwas höhere, weil es wesentlich mehr Platz benötigt. Doch wie die Terminkurven aufzeigen, liegt Gold wie es normal üblich ist, über den Kosten für den Zins und Silber im Vergleich um einiges niedriger. Beträgt der Aufschlag für Gold mit Lieferdatum 2010 über 25 %, so bekommt man Silber auf Termin bereits für weniger als 0,55 % Aufschlag!

Doch welche Begründung gibt es noch dafür? Ganz einfach: Knappheit! Man muss bedenken, dass die verfügbaren überirdischen Bestände bei Silber nur knapp eine Jahresproduktion, bei Gold jedoch über das 40fache der Jahrsproduktion ausmachen. Außerdem wird jedes Jahr mehr Silber verbraucht als gefördert wird!

Wir haben bei Silber zwar noch keine reinrassige Backwardation wie bei Kupfer, aber der annualisierter Spread zwischen den Kontrakten beträgt fast immer weniger als der Zins für täglich fälliges Geld (Bei den Berechnungen wurde der Einfachheit die Fed Funds Rate als konstant bei 4,75 % angenommen.).

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/73 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/73)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/73)

Der folgende Chart zeigt die Differenz zwischen dem annualisierten Spread und dem Zinssatz für täglich fälliges Geld (Fed Funds Rate) für Silber und Gold.

http://img.wallstreet-online.de/news/054/89/61 (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/61)
Bild vergrößern (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/bilder/054/89/61)

Wie Sie sehen, könnten Sie somit Silber heute auf Termin günstiger einkaufen, als Ihre Opportunitätskosten für das Kapital betragen; und Kosten für Lagerung und Versicherung würden Sie auch noch sparen! Wäre das nicht das Geschäft des Jahrhunderts?

Das ist eine gute Frage, und es könnte in der Tat ein sehr gutes Geschäft sein. Doch leider hat die Sache auch einen Hacken. Die Form der Terminkurve deutet schließlich auf Knappheit hin, und diese Knappheit würde laut der Terminkurve vom Markt ab Anfang 2007 erwartet. Die steigende Wahrscheinlichkeit drückt sich in der stärkeren Krümmung in den hintersten Monaten aus.

Viele werden jetzt sicher denken, dass der Kurs doch eigentlich dann höher liegen müsste, wenn man erwartet, dass es in der Zukunft weniger Silber als heute gibt! Normalerweise stimmt diese Logik, doch im Fall einer Silberknappheit wird ein Future möglicherweise nicht die erwarteten Erträge abwerfen, die man sich erhofft. Ein Silber-Future ist bekanntlich ein Vertrag zum Kauf von physischem Silber auf Termin, der, wenn man ihn bis zur Fälligkeit hält, mit Lieferung abgeschlossen wird. Wenn es also wirklich zu einer massiven Knappheit kommt, dann kann es zu einer regelrechten Silber-Squeeze kommen und dann wird auch niemand mehr das Silber liefern!!! Das gute Lobbying der silberverbrauchenden Industrie könnte außerdem schnell dazu führen, dass Sie gesetzlich zu einem Barausgleich unter dem tatsächlichen Kurs gezwungen werden oder noch schlimmere Regelungen in Kraft treten könnten. Schließlich war es bei der Silberspekulation der Gebrüder Hunt nicht anders!

Fazit:

Wie man auf der Terminkurve unschwer erkennen kann, herrscht bei Silber die Angst vor einer kommenden Knappheit. Die Struktur der Terminkurve und vor allem der Abschlag zu den Opportunitätskosten ermöglichen Futuresinvestoren ansehnliche Gewinnchancen. Doch lassen Sie sich nicht täuschen. Im Falle einer tatsächlichen Silberknappheit könnte sich das ganze als Bumerang herausstellen!

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/nachricht/1852997.html

also, noch einmal: so lange, bis nicht physisch gekauft wird ist alles schaum :rolleyes

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=902764#post902764)

:verbeug

mama mia

11.04.2006, 11:45

Interview mit Johann A. Saiger: "Dann fahren wir zur Hölle!" ;)

Veröffentlich am 11.04.2006 08:20 Uhr von Volker M. Riemer

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2472

mama mia

13.04.2006, 08:35

Special SKI Report #3:
SKI is a super bull for now

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email:jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USERX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l) | historicals
(http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=USERX)Apr 12, 2006

Third Special SKI Report:
I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to work. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold (http://www.321gold.com/), since its inception approximately five years ago. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 32 years and that is what they will continue to do!

Two months ago, on 2/11/06, I posted an article entitled "Special SKI Report: Bull Market Corrections (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern021106.html)." That article emphasized that bull market corrections are "Hard and Fast". And the first low of the recent corrective period ended the next day. One month ago, on 3/11/06, I wrote the second SKI Special Report (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern031106.html) for 321gold, again emphasizing that bull market corrections are "hard and fast", posing the question, "Did yesterday mark the low?" Again, that article was written one day after the low, but I cannot provide definitive public predictions because I must maintain the privileges of paid subscribers. Therefore, this current SKI Report provides additional post-hoc (after-the-fact) SKI data to non-subscribers (and a little information about the future). I anticipate writing such "this-is-what-happened" articles approximately once per month. The last one was written on 3/11/2006, so it's that time again. And once again, what a month it's been with gold soaring to new highs for the century!

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. The long-term 92-96 index remains on its true and rare bull market since 8/09/2005 at USERX (the gold stock mutual fund) 8.07. As I've written since that date, the precious metals are expected to rise over many months and years until that index sells. That primary index currently sits at a profit of 86%, with USERX (the U.S. precious metals mutual fund) priced at 15.05. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is here (http://www.skigoldstocks.com/about.php). Although I use USERX for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern041206/1.gif Since the last article one month ago, USERX rose for seven consecutive days into 3/17/06 (price = 13.30), before falling for two days to 12.97 on Tuesday (3/21/06). That was THE critical point in time and price. Here's the important excerpt from my 3/18/06 subscriber weekend Update that outlined 2 possible scenarios for that coming week. Note that the mechanical SKI system simply remained long and continues to remain 100% long from August 2005, but JEFF (that's me) tries to avoid the corrections and was only 25% long as of that weekend. The situation was uncertain. Remember, going into that weekend the gold stocks had risen for a "run up" of seven consecutive days:

1. The run ends soon and we get a few down days to hit the 35-39 index, but then just keep going up, as the next major up-leg of 50%+ has begun. The 3 Down and 7 Up run marked a low, but not a high. We are breaking through the last 16-20 index sell signal from 8 days ago. The large rise that continues for 3 months will then end the bull market for many months. This scenario received a boost in probability on Friday's down close in gold bullion. If gold had closed up, it would have been 5 straight days up (dangerous for bulls), but it closed down.

2. Prices literally collapse any second now and certainly by Tuesday. Such a sharp decline, with USERX having to fall below 12.92 by Tuesday (3/21/06) could still cause tied bullish signals between the 16-20 index and the 35-39 index! I am not making up that 12.92 price! That 12.92 IS the price that the 16-20 index executed its sell signal at 8 days ago on 3/07/06. Moreover, on Tuesday, the highest back price from 16 thru 20 trading days ago "just happens to be" to be 12.92! If prices could fall below 12.92 by Tuesday's close, the 16-20 and 35-39 index signals could still tie with a further fast and hard decline. Tuesday will also be the half-cycle day, 10 trading days after that 16-20 index sell signal (General rule: If prices are higher than the sell price, 12.92, at half-cycle, prices are breaking through to the upside). Therefore, if the intermediate trend is down, prices should be below 12.92 by Tuesday's close (don't bet the farm on the half-cycle theory, it can be off by a day or even two, meaning that if prices are a little above 12.92 on Tuesday, that doesn't guarantee that prices have broken through to the upside, but they are getting close!).

So what happened? Prices dropped that Monday to end the run up and continued down on Tuesday 3/21/06, half-cycle day. It looked like USERX was going to close right at the critical price of 12.92! A close below 12.92 would have initiated an instant plunge, but USERX closed at 12.97. It had held above 12.92 on the critical day! Prices could still have fallen the next day, but they didn't, so I wrote the following intra-week message to premium subscribers (who pay a princely sum of $350 a year):

"I am buying and going back to my comfortable 50% long position today. The gold stocks are, at this point in the day, rising and avoiding scenario #2. and appear to preparing to break through the 16-20 sell signal from 11 days ago. Further confirmation of the upside breakout will be close over USERX 13.30 (the end of the run up). USERX currently looks to be up 1%. Since it is a bull market, I don't want to be out of the market at this juncture."

The next day, Thursday (3/23/06), the following morning message was sent to premium subscribers:

"With gold futures down today and the gold stocks rising, I initiated purchases of April gold at 549.70. USERX is threatening 13.30 this morning, up 1.5%. Jeff is increasing gold stocks to 75%. I wonder if USERX will make it over 13.30 today."

And then that night of Thursday, 3/23/06, after USERX closed over 13.30 at 13.32, the following BUY Update went out to all subscribers:

SKI BUY Update
3/23/06

Everything that I have is now bullish. JEFF IS AT LEAST 100% LONG. The intermediate-term trend is supposed to be now be Up. The critical test of 12.92 was tested and held on Tuesday (3/21/06), the 10th day (exactly at half-cycle) from the last sell at 12.92. USERX closed above 12.92, at 12.97. The half cycle is over and prices are above 12.92, and we have just broken out over the top of the last run at 13.30 (today's close at 13.32). I sent a buy message to "alerters" on Wednesday (3/22) saying that I was going back up to 50% long (because 12.92 held on Tuesday) and then another message was sent this morning saying that I was going to 75% long. I actually went to 100% long by the close, initiated gold futures when they were down this AM (as reported), and have purchased more longs as they are down tonight. I am now supposed to be done issuing frequent updates/alerts/messages. The intermediate trend is supposed to be up for the next major leg of the bull. We've apparently broken through the 16-20 (15-19, composite) index sell signals from 3/6-3/7/06. After USERX goes to new highs shortly, there will always be a down day or two."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern041206/2.gif I make mistakes (see the last SKI Special Report) but this was my big call for the first half of 2006 and it was another instant BINGO hit. (That's why I have about 1000 long-term subscribers since the website started 3 months ago and only one cancellation; we wait and wait, I hedge and fret, and then the moment of index clarity occurs and one has to act instantly after months of waiting). Prices instantly rose. The SKI futures program is ahead well over 40% in less than 3 weeks using a very conservative 1-2 contracts per 15K in equity. USERX has risen from 13.32 to 15.05 in 12 trading days.

OOPS, I see that USERX has plunged today (4/12/06) to 14.74 after a rather dismal day yesterday when gold futures roared ahead $10 and the gold stocks barely rose (so I sold some June futures last night at $603.80). And gold just crossed the $600 level amid media bullishness. Was that a perfect and important high that occurred on a classic run of 4 consecutive days up in USERX into 4/06/06 (at USERX 15.18, a new century high)? Or will this Third Special SKI Report somehow mark its third consecutive low? (and what's going on here? Does the 11th of each month mark a low?! Smile). Remember, bull market corrections are hard and fast, and SKI is a super bull for now.

You'll learn the answer in hindsight in a month, or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com (http://www.skigoldstocks.com/) for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price. And if you remember, I don't want a subscription cost to deter "the small investor" or "the person with special circumstances" from subscribing/profiting. Seriously, if the above applies, write to me at jeff@skigoldstocks.com.

Warm regards,
Jeff
4/11/06

P.S. My wife of 30 years, Lisa, wants to spend some of those profits. She says, "You deserve it Jeff. We didn't have a vacation last year. So she's planning a South African safari. (Should I take a side trip to a gold mine?). When the travel agent asked what our budget was (remember that $5000 bed she bought two years ago?), she replied, "I am willing to pay whatever it takes to have a wonderful vacation."

This is conservatively aggressive, cheapie JeffSKI, sighing and smiling/signing off.

[Editor's note: Oy... no time for 'olidays now you've got an important interactive website, mush!]

http://www.321gold.com/images/sendmail2.gif Email this report to a friend

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a certified trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com (http://www.skigoldstocks.com/).

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.

Copyright © 2002-2006 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

321gold Inc
http://www.321gold.com/images/home2.gif (http://www.321gold.com/)

mama mia

15.04.2006, 11:01

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/zeal_copper.jpg (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm?321gold)Copper Stock Valuations

Adam Hamilton
Archives (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm?321gold)
Apr 17, 2006

Last week I wrote an essay on gold stock valuations, which are nothing short of extreme today. Commodities investors need to be aware that the major gold stock indexes are riddled with gold companies losing money even at today's prices. And the major gold miners actually earning profits are trading near 75x P/Es on average.

While this certainly makes gold stocks risky at these valuations, it also creates opportunities. As I explained in my conclusion last week, the lower the profits of a commodities producer the faster they will multiply as commodities prices continue to rise. Gold stocks' low profits grant them enormous future profits leverage.

One of the greatest things about writing publicly is I am blessed with a great deal of outstanding feedback. I am very grateful for everyone who wrote in to help me further my understanding of the high gold stock P/Es. I heard from all kinds of folks ranging from battle-hardened investors to CEOs of publicly traded gold miners.

Before we delve into copper stock valuations, a quick summary of the feedback-based gold stock conclusions will be valuable to consider and relevant to this copper discussion today. In order for P/E ratios to be high, it takes a combination of high stock prices and low earnings.

Gold-miner stock prices are most likely high because a relatively large amount of capital has poured into a relatively tiny sector and driven up prices. While the total amount of capital deployed in gold stocks remains trivial compared to the broader markets, the gold world was so small and decimated after its multi-decade bear that even small amounts of capital in an absolute sense could drive mighty gains.

The gold-mining professionals who graciously wrote me were unanimous in their conclusions on why gold stock earnings are now relatively low despite the higher gold prices. They explained to me that mine managers strive to maximize the lives of their mines and the total reserves each mine commands. While this is an excellent long-term strategy and is very prudent, it doesn't always help short-term profits.

Gold deposits usually have a high-grade core surrounded by a halo of lower grade ore that gradually tapers off into rock with no gold. When gold prices are low, mine managers are forced to mine the high-grade core to cover their high fixed costs. They run this high-grade ore through their mills, which have fixed capacity, and it yields more ounces of gold per day. This is why global gold production rises when prices fall, companies have to mine their best ore to survive.

But high-grading drastically reduces the potential life of a mine. So when gold prices are high, mine managers start mixing in low-grade halo ore with any high-grade core ore they are mining. They run this rock through their fixed-capacity mills which of course produces fewer ounces per day than pure high-grade ore would. But at higher gold prices the mines don't need to sell as many ounces to cover their expenses and earn modest profits, so they take advantage of the higher gold prices by mining lower-grade ore that wasn't economical at lower prices.

This strategy maximizes reserves and mine lives, but it can reduce short-term profits. Every mining professional who wrote me including geologists, mining engineers, and mining CEOs believed this low-grading was the reason gold mining profits haven't leveraged gold like they ought to. On the bright side, this practice means global gold production tends to fall when gold prices rise. Lower global gold supplies will lead to higher gold prices in the future.

So relatively lots of capital chasing gold stocks combined with lower-grade ore being mined which reduces profits are probably the key factors explaining the extreme gold stock valuations we are seeing today. As gold's bull continues higher these valuations still should fall, but it seemingly takes longer than expected due to mine-management strategies to maximize mine lives and reserves.

A fascinating contrast to the extremely richly valued gold companies is the bargain copper miners. While gold is only up 133% bull to date, copper is up a magnificent 357% in its own bull since late 2001! With copper gains nearly tripling those of gold, copper miners have had far more favorable price environments to leverage commodities price gains than gold miners.

In many ways copper miners are probably blazing a valuation trail gold miners will follow once gold's gains start catching up with other commodities' gains. In order to investigate the evolution of copper stock valuations since 2000, I am going to use the same methodology I used last week. Like I did with gold, I will take a look at one of the largest and most respected copper miners in the world.

As I mentioned last week, historical valuation data is difficult if not impossible to find. But every month at Zeal we crunch valuation data for every S&P 500 component company in order to calculate P/E ratios and dividend yields for the general US stock markets for our subscribers. One of the world's premier copper companies is included in the S&P 500, the venerable Phelps Dodge. Founded in 1834, PD entered copper mining in 1881 and has since grown into one of the most respected and revered major copper miners.

Just as Newmont was a proxy for major gold-miner valuations last week, PD is an excellent proxy for major copper-miner valuations in this analysis. Today's charts plot the PD stock price on a daily basis underneath its market capitalization and P/E ratio on a monthly basis. Phelps Dodge shows exactly what a major commodities producer should do in a secular bull. Even though its stock price has skyrocketed, its valuation has simultaneously plunged!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton041706/Zeal041406A.gif Phelps Dodge stock is up 705% since late 2002, a spectacular gain for any major miner. Early commodities investors who saw the writing on the wall regarding global copper production falling short of world copper demand for years to come have already reaped fortunes going long elite copper stocks. Interestingly PD's market cap is up by a similar amount, which suggests it has been exemplary in avoiding dilution.

Last week in Newmont's case, nearly two-thirds of its total gains in market value since 2001 have been lost to stock investors because it has heavily issued new stock for acquisitions and compensation. In contrast Phelps Dodge has not been issuing a lot of stock which is why its yellow market-cap line so closely follows its blue stock-price line in this chart. Indeed if our market-cap data was daily like the stock-price data, the match would probably be pretty darned close to exact.

But the really fascinating aspect of this chart is not the lack of stock dilution, but PD's extraordinary valuation journey since 2001. Back in May 2001 copper was languishing under $0.80 per pound and copper miners were struggling. PD was sliding under $20 a share (split-adjusted) and trading at an ugly 137x earnings. To put this into perspective, that same month the notorious NASDAQ bubble stock Cisco Systems was trading at 106x itself.

While PD looked horrible back then from a valuation standpoint, astute investors were starting to realize that a new Great Commodities Bull was being born. Investment in commodities infrastructure, including world copper production, had been largely neglected for decades while investment capital chased the hot bubble sectors in technology. While supply capacity was rusting, Asia was starting to industrialize fueling potentially huge world demand. The odds favored commodities prices rising dramatically due to their structural deficits.

Not long after this, things got so tough in copper that PD started losing money. It reported no profits between mid-2001 and early 2004, as the dotted red lines above indicate. Its stock price drifted listlessly sideways under $20 for a couple more years and investors deserted it. Even though PD was actually doing fairly well compared to the carnage in general stocks from 2000 to early 2003, not many investors believed in the coming copper bull. And I am certainly guilty here too. Back then I was concentrating on trading precious metals stocks and energy stocks, not the base metals producers.

But as we'll see below, copper prices started surging in mid-2003 on soaring global demand led by Asia. In just three quarters copper went from about $0.75 to over $1.25 a pound, a spectacular gain of about two-thirds. While PD didn't start earning profits again instantly, astute investors responded immediately when copper started surging. These early contrarians bid PD from about $15 to over $40 in less than a year.

Now why would smart contrarians, who tend to be value investors, buy a company with no earnings for years that had last traded around 125x? Because they understood the compelling nature of commodities profits leverage.

Commodities are always in demand so a given producer has no problem selling every last pound of copper it can mine. Commodities producers are unique among sectors as they have a guaranteed global market for virtually unlimited amounts of their products. On top of this, the costs involved in large-scale metals mining are largely fixed. It takes the same amount of capital to build and operate a mine whether copper is trading at $0.75 like in early 2003 or $2.75 as today.

So big copper miners like Phelps Dodge, that were used to the challenging sub-$0.75 per pound copper prices of the late 1990s and early 2000s, had been building mines designed to be profitable at low copper prices. I haven't looked at PD's old annual reports, but imagine if its costs had run $0.70 while it was selling copper at $0.75. This had the potential to yield a modest $0.05 profit if the company could keep its admin costs in line.

When copper prices started rising, PD's costs may have risen modestly due to higher energy prices but they lagged far behind its selling price. Let's assume, once again hypothetically, that when copper ran above $1.25 in early 2004 PD's costs only rose to $0.80 or so. This yields a big $0.45 per pound profit. Thus a 67% rise in the copper price from $0.75 to $1.25 led to a mammoth 800% increase in its profits. The old $0.05 low-copper profits rocketed to $0.45 per pound once copper joined the commodities bull!

Profits leverage is the most important reason investors buy commodities producers during a secular commodities bull. The ultimate gains in profits and ultimately stock prices that elite producers are likely to see almost always utterly dwarf those in the underlying commodities themselves. Buying copper miners, while they do have company-specific risks, is almost certainly going to be far more lucrative than buying and holding (rolling over) copper futures if margin is not used in either case.

Back to this chart, in recent years PD stock has soared 705% higher. And even though it started at extremely high valuations and then was losing money for years, its valuation has contracted a phenomenal 95%! Indeed late last year, even as PD stock was carving a new all-time high, it was only trading near 6x earnings! Such low valuations are awesome buying opportunities usually only seen once every third of a century or so in the general stock markets.

This lesson is so critically important for investors to really understand. During a secular commodities bull, rising commodities prices drive profits growth far more rapidly than underlying commodities gains. Thus even as stocks of elite producers soar, their valuations fall and they become better and better bargains relative to their earnings streams. This phenomenon can last for much of an entire commodities bull, over a decade.

Now skepticism is healthy, it is essential to protect oneself from the snake-oil salesmen that breed like rabbits in the financial markets. One problem with this chart is the fact that PD went for years without earning profits, hence its valuation data is incomplete. The objection could be raised that PD's awesome profits leverage based on its short period of extreme P/Es in 2001 compared to its recent couple years of great earnings is reaching a bit. Honestly I would have been much happier too if PD had earned money in 2002 and 2003 so my valuation chart would be fully populated.

But thankfully the markets are fractal in nature, the same phenomena appear at different scales. This next chart zooms in from 2003 onward and looks at PD profits leverage over the last two years only, the period of time when Phelps Dodge started consistently reporting profits again. Amazing profits leverage is readily apparent on this most recent scale too, even if the exact tops and bottoms in PD's stock price and P/E are not cherry picked.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton041706/Zeal041406B.gif Exactly two years ago in April 2004, an interesting convergence occurred. Phelps Dodge was trading near $30 a share (split-adjusted) while it was also trading near 30x earnings. Since then PD stock has more than tripled, so it would not be too hard to assume that its valuation must still be high as well. But as this chart shows, even while PD tripled its valuation plunged by two-thirds!

Relative to its earnings power PD is a better deal today at $85 than it was two years ago at $30. Stated another way, with a 3x gain and now at 1/3rd the valuation Phelps Dodge's profits have risen 3x faster than its stock price. Profits leverage is very real friends! It is readily evident even during shorter timeframes within a secular commodities bull.

So why are copper stocks like Phelps Dodge thriving to such an enormous degree? Because the action in copper prices has been so awesome. My final chart this week shows PD stock as our copper stock proxy rendered on top of copper prices. Amazingly PD has a staggeringly high 0.984 correlation with copper on a daily basis. Thus in statistical r-square terms, 97% of PD's daily price action is likely predictable and explainable by copper's own daily price action!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton041706/Zeal041406C.gif While PD's stock price and P/E are slaved to the right axis, in this chart I want to focus your attention on copper on the left axis. Copper is plotted in red, its 200-day moving average in black, and its average closing price in each calendar quarter in white. It is hard to believe, but the already inexpensive copper stocks look to be getting even cheaper as soon as Q1 earnings are reported!

Starting in Q1 2005, copper was averaging about $1.47. By Q2 it climbed slightly to $1.53. At the time these prices seemed like a wonderful windfall and indeed PD's valuation was steadily dropping into mid-2005. But copper has an interesting tendency that I discussed recently in another essay. Unlike gold or silver which tend to correct down after they hit new highs, copper tends to grind sideways and consolidate instead.

In both early 2004 and early 2005 after copper hit new bull-to-date highs, instead of falling rapidly to its 200dma like many commodities copper instead just consolidated sideways. Note above that the red copper line doesn't fall back down to its black 200dma line after a new high, rather it meanders sideways near its latest highs and waits for its 200dma to rise and catch up with it. So while copper certainly could crash, anything is possible in the markets, there is no evidence yet in this particular bull that it is in the mood to do anything other than consolidate.

These consolidations occur due to fundamentals. World copper demand continues to rise faster than global copper miners are able to raise production, and above-ground stockpiles of this metal are dwindling. So with the possible exception of this latest blistering surge from $2.25 to $2.75 in just the past month, this copper bull has been rising in an orderly fashion with full fundamental justification. If copper prices remain high due to its worldwide structural deficit, copper-mining profits will continue to be mind-blowing.

Back to Phelps Dodge as our copper stock proxy, its profits continued to climb faster than its stock price in 2005. Average copper prices rose 11% in Q3 and 19% in Q4 of last year. It was during this period that PD's valuation fell to a minuscule 6x earnings! It was back up near 11x this week since its stock price has been so strong, but the actual event that excited me enough to write this essay happened Tuesday morning.

I was working out at o-dark-hundred Tuesday morning and watching futures action on Bloomberg, and the aluminum giant Alcoa announced its Q1 earnings. Not surprisingly since aluminum has been so strong, AA reported record profits. No big deal I thought, welcome to the commodities bull. But Wall Street, for some reason, thought this was unexpected. Alcoa rocketed up 6.5% virtually instantly in pre-market-open trading on its positive earnings surprise.

Now Alcoa is trading around 24x earnings, aluminum stocks are nowhere near as cheap as copper stocks. And as this chart shows, the average copper prices in Q1 were 11% higher than in Q4, when copper companies also reported record profits. So in light of these developments, we have the potential for a rare combination of events here that could lead to major copper stock buying in the coming month or two by institutions and value investors.

Average copper prices were 11% higher last quarter than in Q4. Copper stocks are trading at very low valuations and the copper bull is not yet widely known out of hardcore contrarian commodities-investors circles. As Alcoa showed, Wall Street isn't really paying attention yet since record earnings surprised it. So when copper companies report Q1 earnings soon, there is a decent chance these positive earnings surprises of all-time record profits will lead to a great deal of institutional buying pressure on copper stocks.

Few things move big companies more rapidly than earnings surprises, and the combination of massive positive earnings surprises coupled with extremely cheap valuations is a perfect recipe for elite copper stocks to really thrive in the months ahead. And even if copper corrects back to $2.25 or even its 200dma near $2.00, copper mining profits will still remain huge compared to the low copper stock prices for months or years to come.

In light of these dazzling copper stock fundamentals and their huge potential as more investors figure out what bargains they are, I believe it is very important that commodities-stock investors be diversified into elite copper and other base metals miners.

In our current Zeal Intelligence newsletter published in early April, I outline several elite copper majors as well as many more diversified miners with low P/Es and heavy base metals exposure. These elite companies' low valuations suggest their bulls are just getting started despite their excellent stock performance over the past year.

While I'm a mere mortal and cannot see the future, it does look like the odds favor a lot of big institutional interest in copper and base metals miners once their utterly spectacular Q1 results are released. If you want a shot at getting ahead of this wave, please subscribe to our acclaimed monthly newsletter today to read about these specific-stock opportunities. New e-mail PDF-edition subscribers will get this current issue free, your paid subscription will start in May.

The bottom line is copper stocks are overwhelmingly trading at extremely low valuations today. Since copper has advanced so much in percentage terms in its own bull, its producers are really exemplifying awesome profits leverage in the real world. Today's low copper stock valuations prove that commodities-stock investing is not always at odds with conservative value investing as gold stocks seem to now suggest.

Despite copper stocks' incredible opportunities, this sector remains largely unloved even among commodities investors. And I have yet to meet a mainstream investor who has any idea at all that copper has been in an immensely powerful bull market. Sooner or later this knowledge will spread and investors will rush in driving copper stocks much higher.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton041706.html

mama mia

15.04.2006, 20:02

$600 Gold: We Have Only Just Begun

Emanuel Balarie
April 14, 2006

Even though gold prices have risen to over $600/ounce, investors are still failing to acknowledge that we are in a fundamentally driven precious metals bull market. Instead of focusing on the specific fundamentals (declining US dollar, central bank buying, inflationary concerns), that have driven this bull market from the start, your average investor and Wall Street pundit is attributing this move up to "geopolitical unrest" and unnaturally high" oil prices. While it is true that those factors have contributed to gold prices moving to a 25 year high, they are by no means the reasons why we have seen gold prices double over the last several years. In fact, the same fundamental reasons that have driven the price of gold from its lows in 2001 will continue to drive it still higher in the years to come. As such, it is important for investors to note that we have only just begun, and it is not too late to participate in this gold bull market.

Putting $600 Gold into Perspective

As a point of reference, it is important for investors to realize that the real all time high for Gold is not $850 an ounce. Although the nominal all time high is indeed $850, the inflation adjusted all time high for Gold is closer to $2150. Comparing today's price of Gold with the price of Gold in 1980, fails to take into account the rise of inflation over the last 25 years. Simply put, $850 could buy you a lot more in 1980 than it can today. In 1980, you could buy a house for under $100,000, buy a cup of coffee for less than a dollar, and put gasoline in your car for under a dollar. Having this perspective, allows you to realize that the price of Gold is still cheap at these levels.

Dollar Decline Will Continue to Fuel This Bull Market

Since the US dollar experienced significant appreciation in 2005, many people have forgotten that we are in a multiyear downtrend in the dollar.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/balarie/balarie041406/1.gif In fact, if you compare it against the Euro, the Dollar is down over 40% from its high. The same factors that initially triggered the US Dollar decline will continue to add towards this sell off. In the past, the dollar was the world's reserve currency. It signified strength and security in a growing US economy. Investors all over the world where scrambling to purchase our US dollar assets. Today, we are no longer a booming and growing US economy. Sadly, we have become an economy that is driven by consumers that are going further into debt everyday and a real estate market (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/real-estate-burst.html) that has been pushed up by artificially low interest rates. Although this has fooled your average American to believing that the economy is strong, it has not fooled central banks around the world that are looking at diversifying out of the US dollar. The United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern countries have already switched or are looking at switching some of their US dollar reserves into Euros and Gold. Russia, Korea, and other countries have also reacted in the same manner.

The China Factor

The Chinese government has also stated that they are looking diversifying out of the US dollar into Gold. This news in itself holds tremendous significance towards the overall direction of Gold. Presently, China has under 2 % of its reserves (850 billion +) in Gold. Most of their reserves are US dollar assets. According to the World Gold Council, the world average is 9 % of its reserves. The EU average is at 25 %, and the US holds 60% of its reserves in Gold. In comparison, China's percentage of its reserves in Gold is unbelievably low. As China continued to become a world economic power, they will continue adding Gold to their reserves. Even if they only reached the 9% average, the amount of Gold that would be taken off the market would have a significant impact on the price of Gold.

In the past year, China has begun laying the groundwork for substantial Gold investments from both its citizens and its Central Bank. Floating their currency and allowing the average Chinese citizen to own Gold were the first steps. The Bank of China will start facilitating US dollars for Gold transactions within recent months. The Bank of China also reported last month that they will slash the spread on gold trading by up to 20 % for a trial period. All of these factors combined with continued demand for Gold jewelry (as Chinese citizens continue to increase their standard of living) will continue to fuel this Gold bull market.

Yes, Virginia... We Do Have Inflation

The question of whether we have or don't have inflation is a hotly debated topic. On one end of the debate, you have data dependent individuals that argue that the Core Consumer Price Index does not show that we should be concerned about inflation. Therefore, all of this talk about inflation is incorrect and purely speculative. On the other end of the debate, you have the price of Gold (which has always been an anti-inflationary hedge), rising to a 25 year high. So who is right?

Investors can answer the question themselves, if they truly step back and look at what is happening around them. The first aspect to consider is the fact that the Core CPI index does not take into consideration food and energy prices. As a result, even though we have experienced high oil prices, this is not immediately reflected in the Core CPI data. Although $70 oil is not initially reflected in the Core CPI data, it will eventually pass through to the Core CPI index as manufacturers pass through the higher costs of producing the goods to the consumer. Additionally, copper, zinc, aluminum, and other raw materials have steadily risen higher over the last several years. These costs will also pass through to the consumer. It is important to note, however, that this pass through effect will not be immediate. Manufacturers typically have contracts where they are required to sell their products for a certain amount for a fixed period of time. I do believe, however, that we will experience a sharp jump in the Core CPI numbers by 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, as the high energy and raw material prices we have experienced for the last several years finally are reflected in the Core CPI numbers. At that time, I expect another influx of gold buying from investors who finally acknowledge that we do have inflation.

The continually higher energy and raw material costs are not localized strictly to the United States. Inflationary concerns can be seen throughout Europe and even Japan. In the same manner that Americans will likely buy more gold as inflationary concerns seep through the economy, the same will be true for Europeans and the Japanese. Magnifying these inflationary concerns is the fact that there has been a tremendous increase in money supply across the globe. Although the below chart shows the increase in money supply for the United States, the scenario is true for a number of different countries.

Look at the below Chart of the M3 (Money Supply):

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/balarie/balarie041406/3.gif The immediate implications of Central Banks flooding the markets with excess liquidity, is that it paints a false picture of wealth. The more money that is created might offer an initial stimulus to the economy, but it actually serves in diluting the purchasing power of their currency. In turn, as the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies is magnified, Gold will start attracting even more interest from individuals that are seeking an alternate "currency".

Any of the above mentioned factors (and others that I have not written about) would in themselves, increase Gold demand and push Gold prices much higher. A combination of those factors is creating the greatest precious metals bull market in history. Additionally, continued geopolitical concerns further propel this bull market, as investors are naturally drawn to a historical safe haven during times of instability. Going forward, I expect Gold prices to consistently make new highs as the true fundamentals that are driving this market can no longer be ignored. If you have been on the sidelines, the time to act is now.

Gold from a Trend Following Perspective

Even if you ignore the above fundamentals, you cannot ignore that Gold has been in an obvious uptrend over the last several years.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/balarie/balarie041406/2.gif A number of our trend following systems, that do not take fundamentals into consideration, have triggered buys on Gold and other precious metals based purely on technical indicators. The basic logic behind long term trend following is that you cut your losses quickly and you let your winners run. This long term trend following strategy can also be applied to other commodity markets. With trend following, you are able to follow trends (both on the up and downside) regardless of fundamentals. Often times, this allows you to participate in markets that move higher in the face of contradictory fundamental data. For example, Gold prices have trended higher even though Core CPI data has not revealed inflation. If you waited for the Fed to scream "inflation", you would have missed out on Gold prices more than doubling in price.

If you are interested in learning more about trend following and how it can compliment a fundamentally-driven portfolio you can request one here (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/brokers/emanuel.html).

If you are interested in receiving my weekly commodity newsletter please sign up here (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/newsletter.html).

Lastly, if you would like to hear more about my thoughts and on gold, I will be speaking at the Atlanta Investment Conference on May 6 and the Las Vegas Money Show on May 15. I will talk about "The Secular Bull Market In Commodities and the 5 Commodities you Have to Own" If you would like to attend or receive additional information on these events please click here (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/education_res.html).

April 13, 2006
Emanuel Balarie
Senior Market Strategist
Wisdom Financial, Inc.
ebalarie@wisdomfinancialinc.com
Direct toll free: 866-465-0017
International: 949-548-2021
Website: www.wisdomfinancialinc.com (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/photos/emanuel_balarie.jpgEmanuel Balarie is the Senior Market Strategist at Wisdom Financial. As an expert on foreign markets, foreign currencies, and the precious metals industry, Mr. Balarie often speaks at public engagements and his research is regularly published in investment newsletters.

You can find out more about Mr. Balarie and his services at www.wisdomfinancialinc.com (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/).

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/balarie/balarie041406.html

mama mia

15.04.2006, 21:51

:verbeug - aus dem Goldseitenforum

http://www.goldseitenforum.de/attachment.php?attachmentid=7633

mama mia

17.04.2006, 12:52

How to take full advantage of a Silver Superspike

http://www.silverseek.com/news/CliveMaund/clivemaund.PNG
By: Clive Maund

As long-time subscribers to www.clivemaund.com are aware, I have a marked tendency to recommend the sale of things that become extremely overbought, which is generally a reasonable stance as I also have a similar tendency to recommend them long before they get to that state, in accordance with “The Prime Directive“, which is to buy low and sell high. Thus, a wide range of silver stocks were recommended for purchase last year and early this year on www.clivemaund.com when they were on the bottom, including Avino Silver & Gold (http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=819). Coeur d’Alene (http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=890), ECU Silver (http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=727), Excellon Resources (http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=802) and Silvercrest Mines (http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=910). There are occasions, however, in the markets when humongous “once in a generation” superspikes develop, which are very hard to predict but stand out on the charts for years afterwards like monoliths. In the earlier stages of a superspike it is tempting - and normal - to take profits due to overbought limits having been attained, or exceeded, but these superspikes have no respect for normal parameters, and it is galling to make what seems to be a prudent sale, only to see the item you have sold go from one seemingly crazily overbought extreme to the next.

I’m not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Could we see a repeat performance? - well, yes, and if what is written about the fundamentals of silver by people such as Ted Butler is true, then we have fundamental justification for it, and some would argue that it could go significantly higher than in 1979.

http://silverseek.com/news/CliveMaund/2006/4-16cm/Chart%201%20Silver%20A.gif

http://silverseek.com/news/CliveMaund/2006/4-16cm/Chart%202%20Silver%20B.gif

With special thanks to Claude in California, the annotations and commentary on the chart are his.

Alright, so how, as speculators, do we handle this extraordinary situation? We know we are looking at a market which is already very overbought, but which has a fair chance of generating a superspike, in defiance of normal overbought parameters, resulting in huge gains. I believe the correct way to handle this situation is to put ourselves in position to make massive profits should this market go ballistic, but, should silver turn tail and go into reverse, losses are kept at a modest and acceptable level.

The correct speculative vehicle for maximizing profit potential from this situation, and minimizing damage in the event that the silver does not continue higher over the short to medium-term is call options in selected silver stocks. Options have the supreme advantage in the current situation in that they provide massive leverage on capital employed, while strictly limiting losses to the “stake money”.

Coeur d’Alene is viewed as the large silver stock with the most upside potential, as it is still at a relatively modest price, and is arcing away from a massive Pan & Handle base, which it is important to note that it hasn‘t broken out of yet - when it does its rate of advance can be expected to accelerate significantly. This base area was identified a long time back and it was strongly recommended (http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=890) on www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/) before the high-volume January breakout from the base. It was recommended to take profits in Coeur about a week ago on the site, but it has not reacted significantly which was considered a danger at the time, and is thus in position for rapid acceleration in the event that the silver spike intensifies. A recommended Traded Option in Coeur is the September 7.50 at 0.75, a good price. The strike price of this option is not much above the current price of the stock, so gains should be immediate if the stock advances. Furthermore, a silver superspike, should it happen, can be expected to occur before the expiry of this option.

http://silverseek.com/news/CliveMaund/2006/4-16cm/Chart%203%20CDE.gif

Other attractive Traded Option contracts in the large silver stocks are described in the full version of this article in www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/) in addition to several silver stocks that look relatively safe here and set to do very well indeed should a superspike develop.

Does what is written here represent an about-face from the cautious stance adopted by the writer some days back? Well, partly, because I don’t KNOW whether silver will react here or whether it will continue to accelerate to even more extremely overbought levels. Most reasonable people would agree that a cautious stance at this juncture is quite understandable in view of the fact that the superspike scenario described here is a very rare occurrence - a once in a generation event. The purpose of this article is to outline an effective way to put yourself in position to capitalize on a superspike BIG TIME should it occur, without having to “bet the farm” on it. If you follow the strategy outlined here you will make huge gains if the superspike occurs. If it doesn’t, it will cost you, but not very much.

-- Posted 16 April, 2006

Web-Site: www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/)
Contact Clive Maund - clive.maund@t-online.de (clive.maund@t-online.de) http://www.silverseek.com/images/sidert2.gifhttp://www.silverseek.com/images/underline2.PNGLast Three Articles by Clive Maund

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http://www.silverseek.com/images/arrow.png How to take full advantage of a Silver Superspike (http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1145234883.php)
16 April, 2006

http://www.silverseek.com/images/arrow.png SILVER - more evidence... (http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1144894006.php)
12 April, 2006

http://www.silverseek.com/images/arrow.png Silver Market Update (http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1144637669.php)
9 April, 2006

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Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=905114#post905114)

:verbeug

mama mia

17.04.2006, 13:04

Taking Profits in Precious Metals: Model Portfolio Recap By Ben Abelson
14 Apr 2006 at 06:19 PM EDT

NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18863)) -- The last few months have been very good to investors in the precious metals sector, especially to those who have been invested in our undervalued gold portfolio, first developed in late November (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14962). Since our portfolio was implemented, it has returned nearly 75% - more than double the Amex Gold Bugs (HUI) index’s return of 37%.

But with the mining sector starting to look a little overheated, and some of our stock picks having gone through the roof, it looks like a great time to take profits in some of our better positions. Of course, our goal going forward will be to add to existing positions and implement new positions as they get cheaper in the future.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/Commentary/benchart.png

Northgate Soars on Solid Operational/Exploration Results

Since being recommended at $1.61, Northgate Minerals [TSX:NGX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NGX.to); AMEX:NXG (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NXG)] has taken off, recently hitting a high of $3.18 on the back of strong operational results. The stock also got a nice boost last week after releasing drill results of 8.38 g/t over 25 feet and 5.65 g/t over 104 feet (within which there was a 40 foot interval assaying 10.35 g/t) at its newly acquired Young-Davidson property in Ontario.

Northgate remains one of my favorite mid-tier miners, throwing off tonnes of cash from its existing operations while remaining fiscally disciplined in its new acquisitions. However, given our nearly 100% return, I would recommend using this opportunity to take some money off the table. Those invested should implement a 10% trailing stop on one-third of the current position. (For those new to this practice, this means selling the one-third stake if the stock declines by 10%.) However, let’s be sure to hold onto the remaining stake in Northgate in the expectation that this company will continue to do well in the future.

Those investors who are less willing to ride out the ups-and-downs of the sector, however, are encouraged to sell one-half of their position using the above criteria.

Cambior Plays Catch Up

After trailing the sector for much of gold’s recent bull run, Cambior [TSX:CBJ (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CBJ.to); AMEX:CBJ (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CBJ)] has been playing catch up of late. As the precious metals sector continues to heat up, investors have recognized the intrinsic value of this stock and its undervalued asset portfolio. Still, production at the bulk of Cambior’s mines are well past their heyday, and barring any acquisitions the company’s production profile is expected to decline over the next couple of years. In fact, it’s more likely that a senior or mid-tier miner will snap up this still discounted miner to add to its production base.

With a 66% return since November, let’s use a 10% trailing stop for one-third of our position.

Nevsun Spikes on Pending Feasibility

Investors aren’t writing off Eritrea any more! With production seeming more and more likely at Nevsun’s [TSX:NSU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NSU.to); AMEX:NSU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NSU)] flagship Bisha deposit, investors have begun to pile into Nevsun. Now that we’ve racked up gains in excess of 90% (and over 100% at the stock’s recent highs), let’s place a stop sale order for one-quarter of Nevsun at $3, if the stock is able to close solidly above that level again within the next few weeks. At that point, put a 10% trailing stop under the stock for another one-quarter of the position.

In the event that Nevsun doesn’t cross back over the $3 mark in the near future, scrap the above information and sell one-third of the entire position at a stop of $2.70.

Nevada Pacific Soon to Be Part of U.S. Gold

With the early-March acquisition plan announced by U.S. Gold [OTCBB:USGL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USGL.OB)], it looks likely that Nevada Pacific Gold [TSXv:NPG (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NPG.V); OTCPK:NVPGF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVPGF.PK)] will soon be folded into Rob McEwen’s latest venture.

Investors who purchased the stock in late November should be quite pleased, however, given that they’ve racked up returns in excess of 160%!

While McEwen’s new venture may have long-term potential, it looks especially overheated in the near term. I would recommend that investors sell one-half of their current position in Nevada Pacific at market prices. U.S. investors who purchased the stock via the pink sheets should be sure to use a limit order.

Golden Star Continues to Disappoint

While we continue to believe in Golden Star Resource’s [TSX:GSC (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GSC.to); AMEX:GSS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GSS)] turnaround potential in the intermediate-term, it has been a disappointment lately. The stock has actually underperformed the HUI since November, and operational results have been middling. Larger institutional investors, obviously, still are not confident in management’s abilities to develop a long-term mining operation in West Africa.

Golden Star had traded up into the $3.80 range earlier this year, but recently fell back to trade in the lower-$3 range. Place a trailing stop for one-half of the company at 10% under the current prices. If the stock spikes above $3.75 before that stop is hit, tighten the trailing stop to 5% below the going price.

Hang Onto Wolfden and European Minerals

Wolfden Resources [TSX:WLF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WLF.to); OTCPK:WFDNF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WFDNF.PK)] and European Minerals [TSX:EPM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EPM.to); OTCPK:EPMCF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EPMCF.PK)] have been fairly flat since being added to the portfolio in November and January, respectively. Still both of these companies have tremendous long-term potential, and I would encourage investors to hang onto them. Wolfden has consolidated its assets in Nunavut, adding several Inmet projects and Kinross’ Lupin property while preparing for a planned spin-off (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17056) of its southern Canadian assets.

Across the pond, European Minerals continues to move toward production (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=16276) at its Varvarinskoye deposit in Kazakhstan, while resolving many of the contracting and financing issues that had plagued the company. The shares have been held fairly flat as the market absorbs a recent equity financing, but investors can look for that situation to diminish over the course of the spring and summer as the company gets closer to production.

Two New Additions

But even with things looking toppy in the sector, bargains still exist. One up and coming junior with strong potential is Alexis Minerals [TSXv:AMC (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AMC.V); OTCPK:AXSMF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AXSMF.PK)]. Alexis has been making tremendous progress at its Lac Herbin deposit, located on the Aurbel property near Val d’Or, Quebec. Initial drill results on the deposit have been very encouraging, include 7 metres grading 25.86 g/t, 2.7 metres grading 8.14 g/t, and 0.6 metres grading 299.5 g/t.

The company is currently planning a three-phase exploration program, with the goal of upgrading some 250,000 inferred ounces of gold to about 180,000 ounces in the measured and indicated category. The goal is to begin production (and generate cash flow) on this initial deposit by early 2007, and use the proceeds to fund exploration on the rest of Alexis’ massive landholdings. A scoping study last year indicated that Alexis could expect to produce 35,000 ounces per year, at a cash cost of $224/ounce for just over five years. A final production decision and feasibility study aren’t expected until later this year.

Given the strong drill results and recent corporate action, production on Lac Herbin is appearing quite likely in the near future. The company recently cemented a 100% ownership stake in the Aurbel property from Aur Resources [TSX:AUR (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AUR.to)], and purchased a nearby 1400 tonne-per-day mill. The total cost for the transaction was $3 million and a 2.5% net smelter royalty.

While the production amounts from Lac Herbin will be quite small, Alexis currently only has a market capitalization of C$40 million, and there’s a lot of exploration upside on its properties. For example, the Aurbel property covers 100 square kilometres, and incorporates several past producing mines. Alexis also holds a 50% stake in an 800 square kilometres land package in the Royun-Noranda mining camp through a JV with Falconbridge [TSX:FAL.LV (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FAL-LV.to); NYSE:FAL (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FAL)]. That land package encompasses some 75% of the entire Royun-Noranda camp, which has been quite prolific in the past.

Alexis has attracted more attention from Canadian brokerage firms recently, but is still down considerably from its early 2005 highs in the C$0.90 range. While its shares have traded actively in the past week, I would look to add a one-half position in the stock under C$0.60 (equivalent to about $0.52 on the pink sheets-listed U.S. shares). U.S. investors should be sure to use a limit order for any pink sheets purchase.

Another great company to keep our eyes on is Tahera Diamond Corp. [TSX:TAH (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TAH.to); OTCPK:TAHDF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TAHDF.PK)], which is in the progress of beginning commercial production at its Jericho mine, located in Nunavut. The stock was on a tear until just weeks ago, when news of a closure in northern Canada’s ice road (leaving some mine supplies undelivered), began to take the company downhill. Since then, Tahera has slumped to as low as C$0.49, from a high of C$0.83 at the start of the year. We’ve written extensively (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18073) on Tahera in the past, but the bottom line is that the road closure isn’t likely to affect mine operations, and will only force the company to put off stripping and construction activities. Another promising development is that the company is planning a 5-for-1 reverse split to boost its stock price and attract more institutional interest.

The extreme decline in Tahera’s shares was probably not solely attributable to the ice road’s closure. Other factors include a natural pullback in a stock that had been on a tear, profit-taking by institutions favoring this very liquid junior, and the fact that juniors often see “sell on the news”-type declines after their first mine opening.

Tahera has strong intermediate-term prospects, however, including a mine with an eight-year life (set to produce 500,000 carats per annum), and a very promising chunk of land to explore. While the stock has come down more than we expected, investors should take advantage of the recent discount by picking up a one-half position at around the current share price (C$0.57, or US$0.50). Keep in mind that there’s a strong chance, however, that Tahera could trade flat or decline further in the coming months, and this is a position you’ll likely hold for a longer period of time in order to realize gains. If that’s unappealing, you may want to sit on the sidelines and hope for a better opportunity (but beware of the stock getting away from you!) In any event, if Tahera works its way down to the C$0.40-C$0.45 range, double-up on your position.

Conclusion

Our model portfolio has fared tremendously well, and any investor partially or fully invested should be quite satisfied with the results. Given the precipitous state of the precious metals rally, now is a perfect opportunity to take some money off the table and sock it away to redeploy in the sector at some point in the near future.

< Back (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18863#) Respond to this story > (http://javascript<b></b>:;)

mama mia

18.04.2006, 22:33

http://www.kitco.com/images/silverPGMs.gif
Apr 18, 2006 16:34 NY Time Change Silver (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html) 14.01 +0.20 Platinum (http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveplatinum.html) 1,106.00 +12.00 Palladium (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livepalladium.html) 363.00 +2.00 Rhodium (http://www.kitco.com/charts/rhodium.html) 4,180.00 0.00

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 20 hrs. 56 mins. Apr 18, 2006 16:35 NY Time Bid/Ask 621.00 - 621.70 Low/High 612.20 - 622.50 Change (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:NewWindow%28%27/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#Change%27,%27LiveSpotGold%27,%27top=50,left=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependant=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,scrollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0%27%29;) +1.70 +0.27% 30daychg (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:NewWindow%28%27/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#30day%27,%27LiveSpotGold%27,%27top=50,left=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependant=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,scrollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0%27%29;) +67.00 +12.09% 1yearchg (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:NewWindow%28%27/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#1year%27,%27LiveSpotGold%27,%27top=50,left=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependant=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,scrollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0%27%29;) +194.30 +45.54%

mama mia

18.04.2006, 23:02

http://boogiewoogie.com/TEST/ARTIST/DORE/Silver%20Rocks.mp3

...aus dem Goldseitenforum :verbeug:)

mama mia

19.04.2006, 09:40

Nickel Rant™
I See a Silver Moon Rising

Edgar J. Steele
Published April 19, 2006

I see a bad moon rising
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin'
I see bad times today
-- Creedence Clearwater Revival, Bad Moon Rising (circa 1969)

[NOTE: This piece was written on April 2, 2006]

On January 28th, here is how I responded on a public forum to someone who wondered aloud as to whether silver might break through the $10 price level by the end of 2006: "This year!?! How about this next week? $20 silver by year end, perhaps even summer, is looking more and more likely to me. And just think, if it goes there then you will be able to say to yourself: 'I did know what would happen!' If it does dip back down at any point, back up the truck because you won't get another chance. History will show today's price to have been a bargain and last year's price as a ridiculous aberration, a result of illegal government market rigging. Mark my words well."

Y'know, when your investments are going your way, it is easy to make the mistake of believing you are a financial wizard. I harbor no such illusions, despite my BA in Finance, MBA in Accounting, law degree and the fact that, at one time, I aspired to become a Specialist (stock exchange market maker) on Wall Street. I've lost way too much money over the past decade.

What is happening today has been obvious for over ten years - that was just about the time that the Plunge Protection Team heaved into action, a response to the Reagan and Bush excesses, all of which continued in spades under Clinton. For the next eight years or so, all my accounting and financial analyst training and experience told me one thing while the markets did exactly the opposite. I lost a lot of money during that time; first in S&P futures, but more recently in contrarian funds like BEARX. For that, I have mightily damned Clinton, Bush and, especially, Greenspan.

Now, however, market forces have grown too large for even the mighty central banking oligopoly to control... except the general level of the stock market, of course. Inflate the money supply as Easy Al and WhirlyBen have done and you guarantee the market never has to decline, regardless of what may be going on elsewhere. Of course, you end up destroying the value of your currency, but nobody ever got fired for doing that.

I give up. Now I expect the stock market never again to decline, at least not for long. However, an 11,000-plus Dow in the future's dog dollars is... how much, again? And your house - suppose its price never goes down, but the purchasing power of today's dollar goes to 10 cents due to WhirlyBen's helicopter-based monetary policy... doesn't that look a lot like the 90% real estate price declines of Depression I?

About that Jan 28 forum posting: Silver actually took two weeks to hit $10. Last week, Silver vaulted over $11, then hit a high spot bid close of $11.54. At the end of the week, though other metals got hammered in the PPT's predictable fashion, silver dipped only a nickel.

Do I smell a correction in the air? Maybe. Or, maybe this is the big wave, at last. We will see. But, this isn't day trading. You've got to be in the game to play the game, so think twice before taking profits. As for myself, I think silver is a no-brainer long-term hold. And gold, platinum, palladium and all the base metals. All commodities, in fact. But, especially, silver.

If the economy goes south, silver goes up as people retreat to it as a hedge.

If the economy goes up or sideways, silver goes up due to industrial demand and the new EFTs.

If we go to war against Iran, silver goes up. If we don't go to war, silver goes up.

If Bush gets impeached (be still, my beating heart), silver goes up. If Bush continues as the Clown-in-Chief, silver goes up. :D

If the dollar crashes, silver launches Moonward.

Only if the dollar strengthens in the face of both the massive debt buildup that has been occurring and foreign rejection of the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, does silver maybe decline some... and, in the immortal words of Clint Eastwood, that ain't gonna happen. WhirlyBen Bernanke said so, loud and clear. A stronger dollar will require higher interest rates - much higher interest rates - and economic pain unlike anything ever imagined by anybody alive today in America whose first language is English. Pain which will cause a rush to silver, among other things.

As I said: a no-brainer.

When I wrote the chapter entitled "Money's End Game: Depression II," for my book, Defensive Racism, I made a strong pitch for silver, even over gold. Silver then was at about $4.50 an ounce and gold was hovering around $300 per ounce. In that chapter, I summarized my detailed analysis as to why I thought gold would skyrocket, saying "I believe gold will spike to as much as 3 or 4 thousand dollars per ounce in terms of today's (2004) dollar, no later than 2010 and probably much sooner, then settle in at around $1500." You see, I was hedging my bet, at the behest of one early proofreader - I actually thought (and still do) gold would/will spike to $10,000, then settle in at around $3,000 to $5,000 in 2004 dollars (not tomorrow's dog dollars, either).

Two years ago, in that same chapter, I said the following about silver: "Silver, in particular, seems poised for a serious breakout once the rigging stops, as stop it inevitably must. Though bulky to store and handle, silver actually is a much better bet than gold."

Last fall, on October 7, once again I pitched silver, via "Peak Silver," in which I stated: "Silver's relative scarcity is a vitally-important concept that simply has yet to sink into the minds of almost everybody in the world today. Else, why does silver trade for only $7 and change per ounce, versus nearly $470 per ounce of gold? Stand by, because all that is about to change." At that point, I traded my gold for silver and recommended that others do the same. Since then, gold has climbed 24%, a remarkable performance, while silver has shot up an astounding 60%. I concluded my article with the following observation: "To the Moon, Alice. That's where the price of silver is headed, now that we have hit Peak Silver. To the Moon."

How high is the Silver Moon? We barely have attained low orbit, folks - well below the deadly Van Allen radiation belt. We still are retracing the steps of silver held back by artificial government manipulation. Next comes the increase due to rarity, vis-a-vis gold, not to mention industrial shortages. Finally, when Depression II really takes hold (unemployment will go from the current real 12% to beyond last century's Depression I mark of 25%), the premium of silver as a refuge will go into effect, thus the relevance of the song snippet recited at the outset of this piece.

People who spoke of $100 silver (again, not in tomorrow's dog dollars, either) used to be seen as loons. No more. Well, at least, not so much.

On January 28, in "Paper Bad - Metal Good," once again I recommended silver, as its spot price closed at $9.57 bid, up about a dollar from a month earlier. Last week, of course, it closed up almost another $2 per ounce since the end of January. That's a 2006 "run-rate" of a buck a month. Lessee now, December 31 price of $8.50 plus $1 times 12 months ... ... hmmmmm... .why... .that's $20 and change! Hey - am I psychotic, or what?

If you haven't yet bought silver with every spare dollar you can scrape up, I can only ask when you're going to trust the force, Luke. Last summer, despite the worried look in my wife's eyes, I refinanced our house mortgage, taking out $100,000, all of which I invested in gold, silver and palladium stocks. That $100,000 has become $250,000 today. I expect it to pay off the mortgage altogether before summer's end. Once again, I am her knight in shining armor.

Under WhirlyBen, the dollar easily could slip to half its current purchasing power by this time next year. Guess what happens to silver in that case?

Another clear tip: most analysts are, as always, calling for a major correction in precious metals and screaming, "Sell, sell, sell... " Lessee now, they're the same ones who always get us to buy high and sell low, now, aren't they? The ones who get paid to shovel us that dreck. I must be doing God's work here, because there is no way I get paid for what I tell you.

If there is another correction, that is all that it will be. Remember that the word correction implies an eventual, if not quick, recovery, usually to higher levels. Don't try to day trade metals. This is a loooonnnnnng bull market for metals that we just recently entered, make no mistake. So long, in fact, that I doubt I will outlive it.

I'll say it again: $20 per ounce silver by year's end. Mark my words well. I'm willing to be wrong, but I don't think that will happen.

-ed

April 2, 2006
Edgar J. Steele
email: steele@conspiracypenpal.com

Copyright ©2006, Edgar J. Steele - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/steele/steele041906.html

mama mia

19.04.2006, 17:34

Jim Rogers Says Gold Will Reach $1,000 as Commodity Prices Soar
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, the former George Soros partner who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, said the boom in energy and raw material prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce.

``The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years,'' Rogers, 63, said in an interview. So if history is any guide, ``they've got a long way to go.''

Prices of crude oil, copper and zinc are at records, and other commodities are at multiyear highs, as speculators and hedge funds seek investments delivering greater returns than stocks and bonds. Global demand led by China, the world's fastest growing major economy, has outstripped supply curtailed by lack of investment and output disruptions.

``Supply and demand is terribly out of balance for nearly all commodities right now,'' Rogers said in Singapore April 17. ``This is not a bubble.''

Gold for immediate delivery reached a 25-year high of $624.70 an ounce today, still below an all-time peak of $850 for spot gold in 1980. Crude oil rose to a record $71.60 a barrel in New York yesterday and copper gained the most in nine years.

``Economies around the world, especially in Asia, are growing very rapidly,'' said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with Soros in the 1970s.

China Demand

China, home to 1.3 billion people, grew 10.2 percent in the first quarter, up from 9.9 percent in the previous three months, fueling demand for energy and raw materials in homes, factories and cars. The country is the world's biggest consumer of steel, copper and zinc and the second-largest user of energy.

``Nearly everything makes a new all-time high in a bull market,'' said Rogers. He didn't predict when gold would reach $1,000 an ounce.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index of 24 commodities rose to a record yesterday, led by gains in metals, sugar and natural gas. The index has increased 13 percent this year, compared with a 4.8 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Benchmark U.S. Treasuries have lost about 1.6 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

Lack of investment in new supply is driving up prices.

``Nobody has discovered a major oilfield in over 35 years. All the major oilfields are in decline,'' said Rogers. ``Unless someone does something quickly, the price of oil is going to go a lot higher over the next decade.''

He depicted a similar scenario for metals. ``Nobody has opened any major mines anywhere in the world for many years and it takes a long time to bring new mines on stream,'' he said. ``All the old mines are in the process of being depleted and demand is continuing to grow.''

Agricultural Commodities

Agricultural commodities may offer new investment opportunities. ``That's where prices have moved least.'' Cotton prices are more than 50 percent below their all-time high; soybeans are 60 percent below their peak and sugar 80 percent, Rogers said. ``These agricultural commodities are very cheap on any historical basis,'' he said.

Rogers, who lives in New York, traveled through China by motorcycle and car as part of trips around the world to pick up investment ideas. The journeys culminated in the books ``Investment Biker'' and ``Adventure Capitalist.'' Rogers also wrote the book ``Hot Commodities.''

The commodity index fund he started in late 1998 has more than tripled.

To contact the reporters on this story:
James Poole in Singapore: Jpoole4@bloomberg.net
Jeremy Naylor in London: jnaylor@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 18, 2006 20:29 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aTBs9vlvviyU&refer=asia#

...er war immer goldfreundlich - aber noch nie so bullish :)

mama mia

20.04.2006, 09:57

http://goldseek.com/news/CharlestonVoice/2006/4-18cv.JPG

What we have here is the Gold/Silver Ratio indicating the number of silver ounces it takes at any given time to buy an ounce of gold. As of today it took 44.16 ozs of silver to get an ounce of gold, which in US dollars closed at $620.60. When the precious metals run, silver leads, i.e., it goes up faster than gold. When they correct, silver goes down quicker, i.e., the Ratio in the chart reverses and begins an upward move.

G & S resumed their climb in almost mid-January. At that point the G/S Ratio was at 64. We're at the point whereby you can now get 30% more gold in exchange for silver than you could have in January. In silver terms, gold's a lot cheaper. Gold hasn't been this "cheap" in more than eight years.

The Slow Stochastics trending lines which are composed within the price chart throw off a great clue as to when gold will get more "expensive" in silver ounces. When the black line crosses over the slower red line you'll want an incidental indicator to confirm and that's the MACD. The MACD indicator appears just above the price portion of the chart. Watch for a change in direction of the blue bars - NOT for the black line to cross over the red. That can occur quite late and deprive you of many ounces of lost spending power. As these metals correct more rapidly on the way down, best to be a wee bit early than late. Be sure and use a weekend chart which has the full Monday-Friday data in it. Not like mine to the right which is only Monday & Tuesday.

Where this Ratio will bottom no one knows for sure, but James Turk (http://goldmoney.com/en/index.php)is one of the best sources for analyzing these pivots. Even if you just get his free commentary newsletter that's fine. His subscriber report is even better.

Yes, gold and silver will both correct ("waterfall") in dollar terms, but in this scary environment you don't want to leave the sanctuary of precious metals even if it is "just" gold! It's not safe to stick your head outside yet to see if the storm is over. It isn't.

Say you'd bought your silver when the Ratio was 64 in January; now at 44, not only can you get 30% more gold, but after the Ratio reverses maybe at 40 and may only go back to 60 - who knows - you'll be able to re-acquire 50% more silver ounces!

Then we ride the rocket with the waterfall all over again. The greater the volatility the more ounces we get along our journey.

Look for the symmetry in the chart as your signpost if you don't have one.

http://news.goldseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1145458920.php

ist ja eigentlich keine schlechte idee hin und her zu swingen. nur leider wegen der marge und mwst. ist praktisch unm?glich. es sei denn, man unterhält ein metallkonto, das mache ich aber aus prinziep nicht :rolleyes

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=906733#post906733)

:verbeug

mama mia

20.04.2006, 14:35

Phili ;)

mama mia

20.04.2006, 19:08

...aus einem anderen Forum :cool

(Wolfpack nennt Ted Butler die 5 größten Shorter, die zusammen über 50% aller Silber-Shortkontrakte besitzen, und die seit 20 Jahren durch konzertierte Aktionen die Preise manipilieren).

Wie das geht?

Ganz einfach:
Sagen wir mal, diese 5 besitzen bisher ca. 70.000 Short-Kontrakte (von den insgesamt gut 100.000 an der Comex). Durchschnitskaufpreis bei 10$ Oz.
Dann sind sie 5.000 x 70.000 = 350 Mio Unzen Silber short (d.h. sie haben die verkauft, großteils ohne sie zu besitzen).
Bei einem Silberpreis von vorgestern 14 Dollar saßen die vor 2 Tagen also auf 4 x 350 Mio = 1,4 Mrd Dollar Miesen.

Nun will man von diesen Miesen wieder runter, und das geht so:

Alle zusammen nehmen nochmal 35 Mio $ in die Hand und kaufen nun 10.000 long-Kontrakte à 5000 Unzen (Ein Kontrakt kostet ca. 3500$). Das treibt zwar den Kurs nochmals etwas höher (gestern bis 14,70 $), macht aber nichts. Denn:
Zu einem verabredeten Zeitpunkt (heute Nachmittag) werfen sie die 10.000 long-Kontrakte gleichzeitig auf den Markt und setzen ihre eigenen Limits, zu denen sie die ersten Short-Kontrakte verkaufen würden massiv nach unten (sagen wir mal auf 13 $).
Was passiert? Da der Markt diese 10.000 long-Kontrakte nicht aufnehmen kann (und will) fällt der Kurs in wenigen Minuten massiv ab.
Das löst nun bei den bisherigen long-Besitzern deren stop-loss-Kurse aus und die werfen (computergesteuert) nun ihrerseits massiv long-Kontrakte auf den Markt.
Der Preis rutscht dadurch natürlich noch weiter ab und löst noch weitere Stop-loss-Verkäufe aus.
Das geht binnen Minuten wie eine Lawine , theoretisch bis ins Bodenlose . Allerdings wird nach den Comex-Regeln nach 10% Kursverlust der Handel für 15 Minuten ausgesetzt (wie heute nachmittag).
Nach Aufnahme des Handels geht es natürlich weiter bergab, da immer noch ein Überhang an Long-Verkäufern da ist. Und da Short ihre Limits, zu denen sie verkaufen, immer schön weiter nach unten ziehen, können sie eine schöne "stairway to hell" bauen.

In den Folgetagen werden nun noch mehr Long-Kontrakte abgestossen, da für die Longs nun Margin-Calls in gigantischer Höhe fällig werden (muss sofort in Cash beglichen werden)und viele deswegen verkaufen müssen.

Sollte der automatische Kursrutsch in den Folgetagen zum Stillstand kommen, dann wiederholt man das ganze Spielchen so oft, bis man den gewünschten Zielkurs erreicht hat, das heißt bis man mit seiner gesamten Short-Position wieder im Plus ist.

Zwischenabrechnung heute:

Angenommener Schlußkurs: 12,50 Dollar.
Aus den anfänglichen 1,4 Mrd Miesen sind nun 2,5$ x 350 Mio Unzen = 875 Mio Miese geworden, d.h. man hat an einem Tag ca. 500 Mio $ "plus" gemacht. Und die werden morgen ihrem Margin-Konto gutgeschrieben.
Da hat man wieder genügend Cash in der Kasse, um das o.g. Spielchen nach Belieben weiter zu treiben.

Villeicht etwas kompliziert (obwohl ich es vereinfacht habe), aber genau so funktioniert Spekulieren mit Papiersilber.

...tönt ganz plausibel - leider :mad

mama mia

21.04.2006, 08:46

A LAST DESPERATE ACT?
by Ed Steer
April 20, 2006

I heard from a very reliable source yesterday (April 19th) that the COMEX was meeting in emergency session. Knowing the reputation of this organization, I imagined that it certainly had to do with the current goings on in the precious metals market…especially silver.

It was obvious to just about everyone who knows about the massive short positions in gold and silver that a short squeeze of biblical proportions was underway. Bill Murphy over at LeMetropole Café had been shouting it from the rooftops for some time as the open interest numbers were indicating just that. Then Ted Butler’s latest commentary “A Cornered Rat?” put the icing on the cake.

The COMEX had been raising the margin requirements for silver at a pretty steady clip, with another one just announced for May…so I was wondering, as I sat at my computer terminal last night, what nefarious act they could come up with to put the kibosh on this parabolic rise in the gold and silver price. Well, I found out when I turned on the computer this morning…the dealers (commercials) had pulled their bids in the COMEX silver and gold pits.

Since Ted Butler won’t be writing for at least another week, I thought I’d comment for him. I could just see the dealers in the pits right now…standing there with their arms folded as the longs (including the tech funds) sold into a vacuum. Since there were no buyers…the price fell off a cliff immediately.

When the sellers did catch a bid, it was the desperate dealer shorts standing there with buckets to collect the equally desperate long positions that were being dumped. This is the engineered sell-off that Ted Butler had been waiting for for so long. This is brazen market manipulation at its worst…engineered by the very people are supposed to be preventing this sort of thing.

Is this the last desperate act of desperate men? I think it is. This is Cartel rearguard action at its finest. They are in a far better position to see things than we are. With the Iranian situation coming to a head within the next two weeks, the US is now in a position where it (probably in conjunction with a client state) must act against Iran or lose all credibility in the Middle East. The dealer shorts know that too. They also know all about peak oil, fiat currencies and the upcoming silver ETF…and want to be on the last stagecoach out of Dodge before everything comes unglued.

Hold onto your precious metals positions, boys and girls…as this too shall pass!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/steer/2006/0420.html

mama mia

21.04.2006, 08:47

...

mama mia

22.04.2006, 16:33

;)

mama mia

22.04.2006, 16:35

http://www.miningmx.com/cm_pics/energy/1536-0-0-0_316846.jpg

» Gold price will explode, says Pollitt
» Resources displaying same signs as the IT sector in bubble - Wayne McCurrie
» Gold to stabilise above $600/oz
» Gold price glee for SA miners

Gold will go to $3000/oz - Bill Murphy, GATA

In an interview on Radio 2000 @ 18:00 on Thursday, 20 April 2006
[miningmx.com] -- GOLD is going to go to $3,000/oz as more geo-political problems arise and US investors start to take interest in the yellow metal, forecasts Gold Anti-trust Action Committee (GATA) chairperson, Bill Murphy.

“Even though we’re at $620/oz now we expect it to go to $3,000/oz… there has been no real interest from the people in the US yet as the stock market there is still fine.
“We believe that with the other problems that are going to surface, the US deficit problems and the dollar, gold is going to be the place to be… the fireworks are just beginning,” said Murphy.
He was speaking on the week nightly business show, the Moneyweb Power Hour, broadcast on Radio 2000.
The fireworks are just beginning
He was commenting on the recent plunge in the gold price from 25-year highs. The gold price climbed as high as $644/oz in early morning trade on Thursday but later plunged back down to $610/oz. Murphy described this as a “healthy correction”.
“This correction won’t last too long… It’s expected. It’s healthy. I think we’ll be back up again in the near future.”
Unlike many gold analysts Murphy believes that this current gold market is not speculative, as open interest in the gold price has not gone up as it has done in the past.
http://www.miningmx.com/radio/?print.x=58&print.y=10

mama mia

23.04.2006, 07:47

...hab mal diesen Teil aus mfabians neuem thread hierher genommen :verbeug

SILBER
... befindet sich in einem exponentiell steigenden Bullenmarkt.

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=CONNECTLINE&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=200&avg2=50&avgtype=simple&ind0=SST&&currency=&&lSyms=SLV.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=SLV.FX1&hcmask=

Dass eine Korrektur folgen müsste, war so sicher wie das Amen in der Kirche. Das Problem dabei: Wir wussten nicht, ab welchem Niveau die Korrektur uns treffen und wie tief sie uns führen würde (frei nach Kosto8).

Mit der Lupe von 10 Tagen sehen wir die Korrektur vom 20. April sehr deutlich:

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=10d&type=CONNECTLINE&asc=lin&dsc=abs&avg1=200&avg2=50&avgtype=simple&ind0=SST&&currency=&&lSyms=SLV.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=SLV.FX1&hcmask=

Ein Intraday-Crash um immerhin 17%.

Das Erstaunliche ist aber nicht dieser Crash sondern der Wendepunkt, der mit $11.65 relativ hoch lag. ich persönlich habe den Wendepunkt in Gegend der GD50 von 10.82 oder sogar um die GD200 von derzeit 8.61 erwartet.

Von den meisten Analysten wurden Vergleiche mit April und Dezember 2004 angestellt: Damals crashte Silber jeweils auf seine GD50. Diesmal erfolgte die Wende (soweit wir das bis jetzt beurteilen können!!!) weit oberhalb:

http://www.strobeli.ch/fabian/charts/silver_3yrs.png

Bei Gold sieht das Bild ähnlich aus, wenn auch nicht so extrem.

Und was sagt uns das?
Nun, erstens, dass sich die Anleger nicht mehr so ohne weiteres von den Big-Boys der COMEX verarschen lassen.
Zweitens, dass wir uns in Phase II der Edelmetall-Hausse befinden (vgl. http://www.boersenportal.ch/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1425&highlight=phase#1425 )
Drittens, dass - siehe oben - das Vertrauen in den Dollar nachlässt und vermehrt physisches gefragt ist.

Marcus Fabian

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=908120#post908120)

mama mia

23.04.2006, 07:50

Rick's Picks

Dizzy from Gold? Get Used to It...

Rick Ackerman
Monday, Apr 24
Excerpt from the current Rick's Picks (website).
You can subscribe here.

The most powerful bull markets are invariably punctuated from beginning to end by wrenching spasms. Were it otherwise, we could all simply load up on bullion assets, quit our day jobs and go fishing as we watch our net wealth grow, day by day, along with soaring mining-share valuations.

Would that it were so easy. More typical is that we will get on board at just the wrong time, as prices go into a steep corrective dive; we’ll take profits nowhere near the top, but rather in the midst of a horrific selloff; and we will retire at 70, not 50, like so many other erstwhile investment geniuses.

So why have I continually referred to the ongoing bull market in precious metals as the no-brainer investment of our lifetime? Simply because the power of this bull market seems unmistakable to me, just as the forces that are driving it appear to be many orders of magnitude greater than those that cause ordinary business cycles.

http://www.rickackerman.com/images/charts/thumbs/22ndApr20060250pm.jpg

But no matter how confident we might be about this, it cannot make us impervious to the pain we feel whenever gold and silver fall as sharply as they did last week. The June Comex contract collapsed $40 in a single day, shedding more than six percent of its value in mere hours. But even the most steadfast of bulls could not have predicted what happened next, when gold recouped fully two-thirds of the loss almost as quickly.

Get used to it, because this is the way all great bull markets act, rising relentlessly for weeks or even months without pause, then diving with such violence as to make even die-hards wonder whether they’ve made a disastrous mistake. Whether the price of an ounce of gold is on its way to $1,000, or to $2,000, to $5,000 or even $10,000, it is unlikely to provide any of us with an easy path to riches.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

mama mia

25.04.2006, 09:01

Meinung, Beitragsnummer: 43461, Veröffentlicht: 25.04.2006 02:31

Silber-Crash: Sind die goldenen Zeiten vorbei?

JOURNALISTEN Nur einen Tag nach dem 25-Jahres-Hoch bei 14,75 Dollar je Feinunze ging es mit Silber abwärts: Es kam zum größten prozentualen Preisrutsch seit März 1983. Nur ein Warnschuss - oder ist die Hausse nun beendet? Die meisten Experten bleiben bullish.
Betrifft: Aktien Edelmetalle & Mineralien Grundstoffe Ressourcen Zertifikate

http://www.yeald.de/Yeald/imgdspl?imgId=1095 von Ronald Tietjen
Ronald Tietjen ist freier Wirtschaftsjournalist in Hamburg und Frankfurt/Main.

Die Hausse ist gewaltig: Allein in diesem Jahr beträgt der Preisanstieg für Silber bereits über 35 Prozent - in der Spitze waren es sogar schon mehr als 60 Prozent. Zuletzt wurde das Spekulationsfieber angeheizt durch die Meldung, dass die Zulassung des börsengehandelten Silber-Fonds (Exchange Traded Fund oder kurz: ETF) von Barclays Capital, einer Londoner Investmentbank, durch die US-Regierung unmittelbar bevorstünde. Doch dann – nur einen Tag, nachdem der Preis für Silber so hoch notierte wie zuletzt im April 1981 – schienen Silber-Anleger plötzlich kalte Füße bekommen zu haben. Kommen die Silber-ETFs etwa doch nicht? Am Silber-Markt brodelte es wie zuletzt Ende der 70er-Jahre.

Damals hatten die Brüder Nelson und William Hunt aus Dallas damit begonnen, in großen Mengen Silber zu kaufen, bis der Preis innerhalb von 12 Monaten von sechs bis auf atemberaubende 50 Dollar je Feinunze geklettert war. Die Blase platzte, als die Hunts 1988 wegen des Vorwurfs verbotener Preisabsprachen verhaftet und zu einer Strafe von 130 Millionen Dollar verurteilt wurden. Steht die Silber-Blase erneut kurz vor dem Platzen? Oder gibt es vielleicht sogar keine Blase?

>> Alle Ampeln auf Grün

Die Experten bleiben anders als noch vor über 25 Jahren für Silber vorsichtig optimistisch. Von einem Ende der Preisrückgänge zu sprechen, wäre zum aktuellen Zeitpunkt zwar verfrüht, meint z.B. UBS in London. Sollte Barclays aber seine Silber-ETFs Anlegern anbieten, könnte es auch schnell auch wieder eine Gegenbewegung nach oben geben, sind sich Analysten sicher.

Eigentlich sind alle Ampeln auf grün geschaltet, auch wenn die Preise und Kurse gestern weiter ins Rutschen kamen. Die US-Börsenaufsicht SEC hat ihre Regularien hinsichtlich der Zulassung eines ETF für Silber erst kürzlich geändert. Somit steht der Notierung des ersten Silberfonds an der Amex nichts mehr entgegen. Es bedarf lediglich noch der Zulassung verschiedener Regulierungsbehörden.

Auch charttechnisch sei weiter alles in Ordnung, da sich der Silberpreis in einem angekratzten, aber noch intakten Aufwärtstrendkanal bewege. Nach Ansicht von Chartexperten hat das Edelmetall bei 11,50 Dollar eine solide Unterstützung, die eventuelle Kursrückgänge abfedern sollte.

>> Verdoppelung möglich?

Bei JP Morgan Chase sieht man den Silberpreis mittelfristig zwischen zehn Dollar und elf Dollar je Feinunze schwanken, wobei der Kurs auch durchaus über 15 Dollar nach oben ausbrechen könne. Bevor der ETF auf den Markt komme, bleibe der Silberpreis jedenfalls volatil, heißt es in einer Studie. Hubert Ross dagegen, Autor des Bestsellers "Gold- Boom", prognostiziert eine Verdoppelung des Silberpreises in den nächsten ein bis zwei Jahren.

Ross stützt seine These u.a. darauf, dass der aktuelle Silber-Boom auch fundamental abgesichert sei und nicht auf diffuse Spekulationen wie zu den Zeiten der Hunts beruhe. So sei das Angebot an Silber weiterhin rar. Die Nachfrage aber steige stetig an. Da es kurz- und mittelfristig aber nur noch wenige reine Silberminen gebe – Silber fällt vor allem als Nebenprodukt beim Abbau von Kupfer, Blei, Zink und Gold an –, deute nichts auf eine Umkehrung des Trends hin. Laut dem Analystenhaus RBC Capital Market entsteht allein 2006 unterm Strich ein Defizit von 35 Millionen Unzen Silber.

Die Lücke aus Angebot und Nachfrage wurde in den letzten Jahren vor allem durch Regierungsverkäufe gedeckt. So gehörten u.a. die USA zu den größten Silberverkäufern. Doch damit scheint Schluss zu sein. Die USA tritt am Markt jetzt sogar als Silberkäufer in Erscheinung. Ähnlich verhält sich die Situation auch in China.

>> Warren Buffett: Silber wichtiger als Gold!

Rohstoffexperten schätzen die weltweit vorhandenen Silbervorräte auf 500 Millionen Unzen. Von diesen darf allein Warren Buffett, Chef von Berkshire Hathaway, 130 Millionen Unzen sein Eigentum nennen. Er ist damit mit Abstand der größte Silberspekulant auf dem Globus. Buffett äußerte sich erst kürzlich zu seinem Silber-Investment und sprach von der einzigartigen Bedeutung des Silbers, gegen das alles Gold der Welt verblassen müsse.

Tatsächlich sprechen die Fakten für sich: Während etwa 95 Prozent der Goldfördermenge in der Schmuckindustrie zu edlen Accessoires verarbeitet werden und nur 5 Prozent industriell genutzt werden, verhält es sich beim Silber aufgrund der hervorragenden chemischen und physikalischen Eigenschaften exakt andersherum. Vorwiegend kommt Silber heute in den Bereichen Elektrik, Elektronik und in der Optik zum Einsatz, seit einigen Jahren auch vermehrt in der Medizin, wo es als Desinfektionsmittel und Therapeutikum bei der Wundheilung angewandt wird. So hat sich z. B. Börsenneuling Bio-Gate darauf spezialisiert, Materialien und Oberflächen in allen Bereichen des Alltags durch Silberteilchen vor Bakterien, Pilzen und anderen Krankheitserregern auszustatten.

>> Volatile Minenaktien

Um an der weiteren Entwicklung des Silbers zu partizipieren, bieten sich für Anleger am besten Zertifikate an, die mittlerweile in verschiedenen Varianten auf Silber offeriert werden, u.a. das Silber Open Ende Zertifikat von ABN Amro (WKN 163575). Als interessant können sich auch Silber-Basket- Zertifikate erweisen, die Silber fördernde Unternehmen – meist aus den großen Fördernationen Mexiko, Australien, Peru stammend – als Basiswerte innehaben.

Da sich der Silberpreis sehr volatil entwickelt hat, weisen auch angeblich sehr aussichtsreiche Silberminenaktien immer wieder eine extrem große Schwankungsbreite auf. Auch wenn viele Faktoren zur Zeit für eine weitere Rally am Silbermarkt sprechen, sollte sich jeder Anleger des spekulativen Charakters seines Silber-Investments bewusst sein. Denn mit Rohstoffen ist es wie mit Aktien – eine Einbahnstraße sind sie beide nicht...

http://www.yeald.de/Yeald/a/43461/silber-crash__sind_die_goldenen_zeiten_vorbei.html

mama mia

26.04.2006, 08:34

:verbeug

http://www.goldseitenforum.de/attachment.php?attachmentid=7740

mama mia

26.04.2006, 22:23

Gold Closes at Highest in 25 Years on Comex as Dollar Declines

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices closed at the highest in more than 25 years as the dollar dropped to a seven-month low against the euro, boosting the precious metal's appeal an alternative investment. Silver also gained.

Gold sold in dollars has climbed 24 percent this year, and the U.S. currency has dropped 4.7 percent against the euro. Gold moved in tandem with the euro from 2002 to 2004. The relationship changed last year when gold gained 18 percent as the dollar climbed 14 percent against the euro.

``It's a concerted attempt to diversify out of dollar- denominated assets,'' said Stephen Platt, a commodities analyst at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. ``There's still underlying fund support for gold and silver.''

Gold futures for June delivery rose $7.80, or 1.2 percent, to $642 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since December 1980. Prices on April 20 reached $649, the highest intraday prices in 25 years. The metal has gained 46 percent in the past 12 months.

Silver for May delivery rose 25.5 cents, or 2 percent, to $12.815 an ounce. Prices have surged 44 percent in 2006.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

The euro touched $1.2471 against the dollar, the highest since Sept. 7. The dollar dropped after U.S. reports showing higher-than- expected new home sales and orders for durable goods failed to allay expectations interest rates will rise faster in Europe than in the U.S.

``Any dollar weakness is supportive for gold,'' said Frank Lesh, a futures analyst at Future Path Trading LLC in Chicago.

Higher interest rates make holding gold less attractive because the metal has no fixed returns, unlike bonds.

Fed Target Rate

The Fed has raised its target rate for overnight lending to a five-year high of 4.75 percent. The European Central Bank lifted borrowing costs twice since December to 2.5 percent. The Bank of Japan has kept rates near zero percent since 2001.

U.S. interest-rate futures show traders are certain of an increase in the Fed's benchmark to 5 percent at a May 10 meeting. The odds of another move at on June 29 are 62 percent, up from 38 percent a week ago and 42 percent on April 24.

``Everybody is looking at the end of the Fed tightening cycle,'' Lesh said. A 5.25 percent rate won't be high enough to stop investment in precious metals, he said.

Holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury have lost 4.3 percent this year. Gold has gained for five straight years, outperforming returns on the 10-year bond in four of those years.

Silver Output

Australia's BHP Billiton Ltd. said production will fall at its Cannington mine, the world's largest silver mine, driving prices of the metal higher.

``We're still attracting a level of investment interest that has overpowered some of the available supplies,'' Platt of Archer Financial said.

Mine supply may increase 2.9 percent this year to 545 million ounces, New York-based researcher CPM Group said yesterday. Supply from mines, scrap yards and central banks fell short of demand for 16 years. The last surplus of 34.6 million ounces was in 1989, CPM said.

Recent wide swings in silver prices may deter new buyers, Lesh of Future Path said. ``Silver's certainly had its comeuppance,'' he said. ``That gives everybody notice that we might be looking at peaks in these metals.''

Silver rose to $14.52 an ounce on April 19 from $11.70 on April 5. Prices plunged 14 percent on April 20, rebounded 3.5 percent on April 21 and tumbled 9.2 percent on April 24. The metal jumped 6.7 percent yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 26, 2006 14:40 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=apc2BqA8lMz4&refer=top_world_news

mama mia

27.04.2006, 08:48

...also erstmal :verbeug dass ich dieses Teil in voller Länge reinstelle - es ist und bleibt mein Liebling und ich möchte in so wenigstens einmal "für die Ewigkeit" :p festhalten ;)

Either way, I've got the SMWs

Richard Daughty
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru
Archives
Apr 26, 2006

-- I am really, really getting scared here. This week, I don't know what scares me most; the Federal Reserve increasing Total Fed Credit (which is the legendary "money from thin air" that banks use to make credit, which gets borrowed, which turns it into money, which increases the money supply, which makes prices go up) by another $5.9 billion, or that the National Debt has suddenly, inexplicably, declined by a lot. Weird! In fact, the National Debt has literally collapsed $58 billion in less than two weeks! Unprecedented!

I have decided that I don't care which one scares me the most, as either of them is enough to give me the Screaming Mogambo Willies (SMW), and now all I care about is getting my fat, frantic fanny out to the Mogambo Bunker Of Safety (MBOS) in hopes of saving myself. And yes, it is too bad about the wife and kids, but they can't say I never warned them about dawdling. Locked safely inside, I have time to ponder that the Fed increasing Total Fed Credit is easily explainable; the Federal Reserve wants to create more money, which drives down interest rates. That's all those buttheads ever do.

But it is the drop in the National Debt, on the other hand, that has turned my eyes into mere slits of suspicion and panic. My brain swirls as I ponder the Mogambo Question Of The Day (MQOTD), "If debt is going down while spending is going up, then where in the hell is all of the money coming from?" This is too, too, too, too weird for me!

This is about as weird as this week's installment of One Interesting Mogambo Statistic (OIMS), which is that savings and other deposits at the banks are on track to register what looks to be their biggest (by far) one-month gain in history; up $125 billion in the last three weeks! Wowee! One huge whopping percent of total United States Gross Domestic Product has appeared, like magic, as savings and "other deposits" in the banks! In one month! Like I said, weird!

-- I got a real laugh out of the headline at Associated Press that read "The Battle Over the Blame for Gas Prices". Hahaha! The article figures that it is either greedy oil sellers or gluttonous buyers. Or, as others say, Congress. And while all these people are all guilty to one huge degree or another, everybody entirely misses the point, which is that while Americans might enjoy getting dollars in exchange for goods and services, the people of the oil-exporting countries do not want dollars or euros or yuan or any other money. They want their own money, doofus.

But what all these groups of people have is common is that they all want to be paid in their own units of purchasing power, which (at $75 a barrel) is about ten pizzas. It makes no difference to them what kind of money you use to pay for the oil, as long as they can exchange it for ten pizzas. Preferably, they would like to be paid in units of purchasing power that GAIN in purchasing power, so that tomorrow they can buy eleven pizzas for a barrel of oil. And if not gain, then at least not lose purchasing power, and tomorrow only be able to buy six pizzas!

Unfortunately, the dollar is NOT a currency that is going to gain in purchasing power. It is, on the other hand, one of those currencies that are going to lose purchasing power. So, everybody, including foreign oil exporters, have to charge a higher price for oil just to make up the losses in purchasing power they will suffer until they can actually get around to spending the damned dollars on pizzas!

And it is going to get worse, much worse, as you can readily conclude from Chuck Butler at his famous Daily Pfennig site, who reports that at the latest G-7 meeting (representatives of the seven or so biggest economies in the world), they announced that they all decided that "it was 'critical' for the Asian currencies to let their currencies rise versus the dollar. I would not be surprised if China started spending its dollar reserves on all the crude oil supplies they can purchase - at any price. What will be more valuable to their economy next year, $75 U.S. dollars or a barrel of oil?" In short, will seven pizzas be more valuable than six pizzas next year?

As we now see, class, there are other reasons for rising gasoline prices, and one important one was found on WorldNewsTrust.org. It read that the ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said "Soaring commodity and raw material prices are increasing the cost of oil and gas projects by up to three times. Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al Attiyah said: 'Our costs have tripled from two years ago, due to high (commodity) prices. And it's not just that, it is also contractors who have tripled their prices.' " I laugh! Doubled costs and tripled prices? Hahahaha! They themselves must laugh uproariously when they hear that our government always says that there is no inflation! Hahahaha!

So, the next time you are watching in horror as that gasoline pump is sucking the money out of your wallet ("sluuuurrrrp!") and you wonder why gasoline costs so much, don't be like me and get mad and go running up to the clerk and calling him a cheating, thieving little over-charging bastard from hell. Experience has shown that it won't help.

And anyway, it usually turns out that the kid had nothing to do with the price of gas, but instead the price of gasoline is up because the purchasing power of the dollar fell! And the dollar fell in purchasing power thanks to the horrid Federal Reserve, which has been creating excess money and credit with their every waking moment since the dreadful moment when that hideous creature of fraud and corruption was created in 1913, which was (as Mogambo musicologists know) the inspiration behind the classic Mogambo reggae tune, "The Fed'ral Reserve Be Killin' Me Money, Mon!" which contains the immortal line "Based on lies, and founded on the sly, based on lies and founded on the sly in 1913, mon, me money goin' down, mon, me money goin' down!"

-- I confidently predict that the Gross Domestic Product report due to be released Wednesday is going to show a nice big increase in GDP, and everyone will rejoice and celebrate by buying stocks or houses or bonds or something.

To this I say "Hahaha!" The way it works is this; suppose GDP of Mogambo Land last year was 100 widgets produced, and sold at a buck apiece. Total Mogambo Land GDP=$100.

Now this year, the economy consisted of 90 widgets produced, yet sold at $1.20 each. Nominal GDP would show an increase to $108, which sounds good to those who do not have Mogambo-Sharpened Economic Senses (MSES), and those who do laugh as one, "Hahaha!"

Normally (back when the government was not filled with loathsome liars and cheats because the newspapers didn't let them get away with it), total revenues ($108) would be properly discounted by the inflation in prices (20%), which is the loss of purchasing power of the dollar, and thus the real, inflation-adjusted change in prices (20%) exactly matched inflation. So real GDP= 90, which is 90 widgets produced and sold for one dollar's worth of buying power each, so GDP is actually down by 10% (only 90 widgets produced)!

But if you can get away with lying about inflation, and fraudulently say that inflation was zero, then you can "prove" that GDP increased did, indeed, increase by 8%, when in actuality it declined by 10%! Hahaha!

And they can legally say that inflation is zero because of the fraud and fiction of hedonic statistical smoothing; if beef doubles in price but chicken doesn't, the government figures that you will buy less beef (zero) and more chicken (100%), thus spending the same amount of money, and therefore you suffered no inflation! Hahaha!

Welcome to the shabby underside of the banking system which created its own rules to create the recent invention of hedonic statistics, of which this is only one- one! -of many despicable lies concocted by the horrid Michael Boskin, a smug big shot university professor consultant who, I guess, agreed to take the rap for creating the monster when the people finally revolted, and the despicable Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve (1987-2006) who actually did it to us. And we never even got kissed.

-- If you want to know why the future of gold promises much, much, MUCH higher prices than is even justified by the low (and falling) worth of the ridiculous dollar, here is a little something to chew on. Sent to me by my buddy Phil, it is a very interesting article from the Globe and Mail, entitled "It's a Gold Rush", and written by somebody named Tavia Grant, whom I assume is a female of the species. In it she reports that gold and silver are suddenly VERY popular in Canada, especially Alberta. Why Alberta, I have no idea, although I did once know a girl named Alberta and she had these really huge boobies, and was real popular, too, but I don't know if there is a connection or not.

But if I can distract you from thinking about Alberta for a minute, I will direct your attention to the part where she says that "While Albertans may be the biggest buyers of gold and silver these days, interest is growing across the country." Further, she found that dealers in gold and silver say "silver demand is particularly strong", which oddly corresponds with the recent rise in price, as you would expect, because for prices to go up, there have to be more buyers than sellers. And here they, as she reports, are!

And it is not just Canada, either! Kenneth Y. in Tokyo writes that he sometimes visits bullion/coin dealers in the area called Ginza, which he translates as meaning "Silver-Mint". Anyway, he reports that one of the biggest bullion shops, called Ginza Tanaka, "stopped selling silver (until further notice). They said they were out of stock! So, no silver in silver-town from the silver-shop since opening in 1892!" I shake my head in disbelief! The store I out of silver for the first time in 114 years? Yow!

And if you want to speak of gold (and who doesn't?), the Telegraph.co.uk reports that gold fever is spreading, and "even pension funds are buying"! Wow! Talk about huge potential demand!

The article goes on to report "GMFS, the precious metals consultancy, has suggested that gold could surpass $850 a Troy ounce this year." This year? Instantly I try to check the calendar, but I don't seem to have one handy, so I yell out "Hey, somebody! What is the date of today?" and in unison they yell back "It's the day you ought to die, you horrible man, and set us all free to finally be happy!" But I ignore them, as that is almost the same stupid answer they always give, although usually in response to my asking "Hey! What time is it?"

But I don't need a calendar to see that gold rising from $630 to $850 in two-thirds of a year is a big, BIG juicy gain. Especially when added to the 20% gain we've already had in gold since January 1!

-- Continually we seek out responsible, authoritative sources of news and opinion, one after another, until we finally get to the bottom of the news barrel. Among the dregs we find The Mogambo Daily Economic Rag, the nation's only authoritative news source for the Gold-Bug, Second-Amendment Gun-Nut, Paranoid And Scared Majority Of Real Americans. In this week's scary issue, we learn that the REAL reason that gold and commodities will zoom, zoom, zoom is that we have GOT to have a bubble in something, and pretty damned soon, too, if we are to survive as an economy!

You are correctly thinking, "That Mogambo is a big idiot! Who 'needs' a bubble? They always end badly!" As correct as you are, I shake my head and figure that you are stoned out of your freaking brain, because you are obviously living in some happy dream world where Congress and the Federal Reserve are honest, decent people who would not even DREAM of creating bubbles in something and unleashing all that future suffering and misery.

But trust me, my Delightful Mogambo Darlings (DMD), when I say that creating a bubble in something is ALL they are dreaming about right now! And it is what they are working to arrange this very minute! I laugh with the hysterical dementia of the damned and say "Welcome to the hell of a fiat-money economy!"

So who "needs" a bubble? Well, for one, all the folks now six years closer to retirement than they were six years ago when all their retirement dreams went down in flames when the stock markets took a big dive in 2000. Their desperation swept them, and others, into trying to make up for lost time by getting deep into debt to get into this real estate thing, but- horror of horrors -now IT is starting to collapse, too, taking away people's retirement dreams again! Damn!

Now all of those people are even farther behind the eight ball! And since stocks are already still hovering near their highs in terms of overvaluation with an SP500 P/E of almost 20 and paying squat for dividends, there is not a whole lot of reason to expect a new bubble in stocks.

And since bonds are selling at prices far higher than they should be, too, resulting in bond yields to fall to (unbelievably) less than the rate of inflation (and a lot les than that, net of inflation AND taxes!), a new bubble in bonds is also pretty unlikely.

And houses? Well, obviously you just got here from Mars, or you are not paying attention. I just got through saying that the housing bubble is what is busting now! And so to look for long-term higher and higher housing prices, in a sudden resumption of the massive housing bubble, seems to require a BIG stretch of credulity.

"And worse yet," I cry out, my voice piteously breaking from sorrow and anger, the cinematic tension crackling like static electricity in the air, "all the umpteen trillions of dollars in new debt that was used to finance all of that real estate bubble, and the stock market bubble, and the bond bubble is still outstanding and payable! Now it is all reduced in value, thanks to the fall in the dollar and the attendant rise in interest rates, and which is all now losing money for the lenders! Gaaaah!

And even more horrifying, most of that huge towering mountain of debt was securitized and sold to some sucker. "Who?" you ask? It's us! A lot of pension funds and investment funds and shares of Fannie Mae! Double gaaaaah!"

So what are these sad-sack, desperate people going to do? What can they do to desperately try and finally rescue themselves, and all the other new people looking at their own retirements, at the same time as they are seeing all of this? Ergo, we HAVE to have another bubble in something to keep us from collapsing under the debt!

So the question that springs ("boooiinnnnng!") immediately to mind is, "If the bubble is not commodities (like gold), then what? What else is so historically undervalued that it has lots and lots of room on the upside for a big ol' booming bubble, and is also so big that it can absorb all of that money escaping from stocks, bonds, and houses?"

But, as usual being the last one to know, I see that the inflation in commodities has already started! Looking at the Economist magazine and their "Commodity Price Index", the year-over-year gain in the category of All-Items is up 24.7%, while Food is up 6%, All Industrials is up 46.4%, Non-Food Agriculturals is up 14.9% and Metals is up a staggering 62.4%! In one year! If that ain't price inflation, then what in the hell is it?

And higher prices are already affecting spending, as I infer from Adrian VanEck at the Money Forecast Letter, who reports that "American personal consumption expenditures on durable goods peaked early last August and at last report were down at an annual rate of $100 Billion."

-- The wild recent sell-off in silver was probably caused by the announcement that margins were being raised on silver contracts for future delivery, effectively raising the cost of the silver future. Nobody wants to pay more money for something they already own, especially in response to a nasty phone call from the broker who demanded that I get my nasty Mogambo butt (NMB) down there pronto and deposit a lot more cash to meet the new margin requirement, and who sounded real snotty when he pointedly reminded me that he said "cash," which meant that I had better not try to pass another of my rubber Mogambo checks (RMC), like I don't know what the word "cash" means or something. So, in response, everybody said "Sell, you nasty, greedy bastard!" and the price of silver, of course, tumbled since demand tumbled.

But everybody forgets that the price of silver has about doubled in the last year, but the margin requirement did NOT rise to meet the new, higher price of silver. And so those old, low margins were very low as a percentage of price, and were waaaAAaay overdue to be raised to normal levels. The old margin requirements were becoming, in essence, a free gift to the investor.

The lesson is not that the markets are full of crooked bastards, but that absolutely nothing has changed concerning the current Mogambo Certified Rating (MCR) of Uber-Bullish about silver, except for the justified increased cost to the people who want to borrow money to make bets on the coming meteoric rise in silver, using the futures market to leverage, leverage, leverage.

Which makes the price of silver go up, which validates my point; buy silver bullion, and lots of it.

-- Several readers have challenged me to explain how the gold lease rates can manipulate the price of gold up and down. I smile, as nothing could be easier, my precious Mogambo grasshoppers! And there is nothing I like better than something that is "easy", unless it is something that is tasty. And so, pizza delivery gets very, very high marks for being both easy AND tasty.

So I smile beatifically and rub my fat little tummy in satisfaction, which is, even as we speak, growling for more pizza or fewer donuts.

Nevertheless, I say "Hear me now, my quizzical ones! First, tell me all the ways, all the sleazy, slimy, slippery ways that you can manipulate markets when you control everything, and have the Federal Reserve, a supplier of seemingly-endless amounts of gold at very cheap rates, as a willing co-conspirator. There must be a zillion ways right there! Hahaha!"

My laughter ringing hollowly in their ears, I ruthlessly went on "And on top of that, tell me MORE ways to make a profit by insiders manipulating the gold market if they are also free to use any combination of leased gold bullion, market-provided gold bullion, custodial gold, certificate gold, gold mining shares, mutual fund's gold shares, warrants, futures, options, private contracts, promissory notes, poker chips and side-bets! Hahaha! That ought to be good for a few gazillion ways to profit right there!

And then tell me all the MORE ways you can profit from manipulating the gold market if you can also take a short position in any or all of those things, too! Hahaha! And then, as if that is not enough, tell me all the additional ways to make a profit manipulating a market when the money to finance all of this insanity is provided by Japan and their zero interest-rate policy!"

I dramatically pause to let my words sink in, which was ruined by an inadvertent big burping belch ("Burrrrrp!). Hurriedly, I exclaim a little too loudly "Tell me these things, my young Mogambo larvae (YML), I will tell you exactly how it is done!"

I look over the crowd assembled at my feet, and glare purposefully at the ones nearest my feet who are harshing my buzz by loudly complaining about the smell. Then I smile and say "All you really need to know, my greedy little ones (GLOs), to make a whole gigantic humongous ton of money with gold is to buy it when you see that the price is held down by these manipulations! Huge multiples of the total existing global supply of gold is now mere paper, traded as if it were gold, which it ain't, and probably never was, and by now the only thing that flimsy promissory note has in connection to gold is some words on paper or a computer disk somewhere. It will end badly for them. Which won't be long in coming."

Amid cries of "Prove it, mighty Mogambo!" and "Show us the proof, idiot Mogambo!" and "Stop trying to peek up my skirt, creepy pervert Mogambo!", I calmly and graciously hold up my hand to silence the crowd. Standing up and thus eliciting a crowd-wide sigh of relief that my zipper is, thankfully, up for a change, I grab the microphone and speak in my most profound Mogambo voice (PMV): "To prove it, my precious Mogambo grasshoppers (PMG), you would have to prove that all the millions of Wall Street hotshots, and Nynex hotshots, and Comex hotshots, and bullion bank hotshots, and foreign central bank hotshots, and trader hotshots, and all their secretaries and underlings and friends and insiders are all just Too Damned Stupid (TDS) to come up with some damned way to make money out of a sure thing!"

Then I laugh "And it can work until the scam gets overwhelmed by sheer physical demand by millions of people, perhaps billions of people, who are all coming to their economic senses and are scrambling to buy silver and gold against the coming economic hard times, driving prices relentlessly up and up and up, as gold will be, just like it always has been, pure economic salvation (PES) for people as protection from the unstoppable depreciation in the purchasing power of the money caused by a huge government, which is massively deficit-spending a massively inflating stock of fiat currency based on debt, multiplied by an insanely low fractional-reserve ratio in the banks! Just like it has in all of history, and just like now! Hahaha! Now you know why I laugh!"

Then, dismissively, I point to the door and exclaim "Go thee now! Go! Hie thee to thy places of gold and silver exchange, and buy, buy, buy!"

Soon, the place is deserted, and everybody has gone home, mostly muttering how they feel stupid even listening to an idiot like me, and whispering hateful things back and forth, like, "Did you get a whiff of those feet? Pee-yew!" and everybody laughs.

But whether or not you believe a raving lunatic like The Mogambo (and you would be an idiot if you did), the gold lease rates had again fallen (over the last ten days) to a singularity (a strange situation where leasing gold short-term costs the same as leasing long-term!) in the last two days. And sure enough, right on schedule, the price of gold soon had a huge downdraft! You want more proof than flimsy, sheer coincidence? I shake my head in wonder, as you are not nearly as paranoid as you need to be, nor nearly as paranoid and angry as you are soon going to be.

-- If you check your Mogambo Handy Handbook (MHH), you will notice that I advocate that you take physical possession of gold and silver bullion. One reason is that once you have it paid for and in hand, your annual costs go to zero, whereas brokerage accounts and mutual funds are always hitting you with fees and commissions and expenses and taxes and levies until one day you cry out "They're stealing me blind!"

And if you want another reason for taking possession of actual gold, then you might be interested to learn how a mutual fund could lose value even as gold and shares rise. If so, then check this out from a prospectus sent to me by a mutual fund I own: Under the section of risks in owning shares of the mutual fund, the last one is "Securities Lending Risk. Any loss in the market price of securities loaned by the fund that occurs during the term of the loan will be borne by the fund and would adversely affect the fund's performance."

And who are these guys borrowing my stocks and are causing me to suffer a loss in my mutual fund? The answer is: Guys who went short gold! Hahaha! In other words, guys who aren't very smart! I mean, and pardon me for laughing, but who is stupid enough to be short gold in a roaring bull market in gold?

Switching on the Mogambo Risk Analyzer (MRA), I quickly discover that, unfortunately, the chances of getting the money back, thanks to the mutual fund loaning it to dimwit dirtbags, are, officially, Pretty Damned Slim (PDS). And this coincides exactly with how people who loaned money to a dimwit dirtbag named The Mogambo never got it back, either, so you see how this all fits a little too neatly together to suit me!

And if those are not enough reasons to own bullion gold, from some of the gold mining stocks I own I, as a shareholder, am getting always asked to vote for all kinds of weird proposals buried deep in the prospectus, like allowing them to issue a lot of free options so that the company can give them to "select" people, which lets them, at some time in the future, opt to buy shares of the company, but at today's price! Hahaha! (Oddly enough, I think that this shameless scam signifies that they think gold is going to rise in price, too. And go up in price by a lot, too, if they are greedy enough to try and pull this stunt now! How bullish!).

And, of course, there are the gigantic salaries of the officers and boards and whatnot, and the constant share dilution from them giving themselves baskets of shares, and I am sure they are all just a bunch of thieving, lying scumbags like you find in every publicly-owned company.

-- George Ure of UrbanSurvival.com, took a look at the latest CPI release, and notes that the annualizing the latest monthly rise in prices equals 7.4% inflation! I will wait a minute until you have gobbled a few nitroglycerine pills and have checked your pulse before I hit you with the news that inflation is actually higher than that!

First off, he begins with a little joke to, you know, sort of break the tension, and he notes that in figuring inflation, "The Labor Department uses the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate" and then (pausing slightly for dramatic effect), he hits you with the punch line; "You don't have one of those in your checkbook."

Hahahaha! I'm rolling on the floor laughing! And then I am immediately sorry for rolling on the floor because it seems that I have rolled into something wet, and then I am ashamed of myself for laughing because there is NOTHING funny about inflation. And if you think otherwise, then tell me how funny it is the next time you buy gasoline at these record-high prices to fill up your gas guzzler so that you can take your stupid daughter to her stupid soccer game, where she sits on the stupid bench the whole stupid game, whining and complaining about how much she hates me. I mean you. She hates you.

And, since we are talking about it, there is nothing funny about getting your pants wet, either, because now it looks like I have peed in my pants, and everyone is pointing and laughing "Hahaha! The stupid Mogambo peed in his pants again!" and all the women are making faces and saying horrible things like "Ewww! Now he disgusts me more than ever!", although I note for the record that they were slyly suggesting all kinds of forbidden things (wink, wink!) back when they were interviewing for the damned jobs!

But this is not about my dampness problems with trousers, or teasing-then-traitorous female employees, but about inflation. I motion with my hand for Mr. Ure to please go on with the news about inflation. Thankfully, he goes on to say "The headline number means 7.4% inflation. But buried in the report, the Labor Department says the benchmark has changed. Check the emphasis added part: 'CPI (Old Weights) For the first six months of 2006, BLS also will calculate Old Weights CPI-U and Old Weights CPI-W based on the 2001-02 expenditure pattern used in the CPI from 2004 through 2005. These Old Weight data are contained in tables 1(OW)-4(OW). From February to March, the Old Weight CPI-U rose 0.7 percent and the Old Weight CPI-W rose 0.6 percent. Note these series are not seasonally adjusted.' "

Mr. Ure smiles, waves his hand dismissively, and says "So there you have it: Inflation at an annualized old weight is 8.7%." Pandemonium filled the room at this horrific inflation news! Well, the truth is that the only thing filling the room was the sound of me howling like an angry, frightened banshee at the looming horror of 8.7% annual inflation, and the sound of everyone else yelling "Oh, hell! It's that damned Mogambo idiot! Who's responsible for letting that creep in here?" The noise was so deafening, that I never even got a chance to point out that the footnote admitted "these series are not seasonally adjusted"!

-- Greg Z. went to the British Museum to see a special exhibit on the History of Money. The best part, and you are going to love this, too, was Mr. Whitten, who is descried as "a small, elderly gentleman who has been hired by the Museum to man a table at the end of the exhibit hall." He was displaying, among other monetary oddities "silver coins from Pericles' Athens and Victorian England (clipped by the way). He is very proud of all the precious metal coins and boasts of how beautiful (and valuable) they still are today."

Mr. Z then goes on to relate "He also has base metal coins from today's modern world. During his presentation, he picked one up, stared at it ruefully and said, 'Today this is made from base metals. The metal itself isn't even worth the value of the coin.' He then sighed and said in that great British accent, 'Rubbish really.' "

Ahhh, the fabled British reserve and understatement! Mr. Z says "Couldn't have said it better myself." Me either, Greg! Me either! Hahaha!

-- The Economic Indicators came out, and the Leading Indicator was down. Bad news. Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust writes "The year-over-year growth in the LEI has done an excellent job of foreshadowing the onset of recessions. That is, a steady downtrend in the year-over-year growth in the LEI has been a warning of an imminent recession. Not surprisingly, the LEI is not only a good predictor of the cyclical behavior of economic growth, but also a good predictor of the directional behavior of the fed funds rate."

The Coincident Indicator (indicating current economic activity) was up slightly, asyou would expect. and the Lagging Indicator (indicating future inflation) was also up. More bad news.

But this Indicator stuff is apparently not impressive to Volkmar Hable, of Samarium Technology Group, who writes simply "Historically, the combination of sharply rising bond yields, gold prices and oil prices has led to a stock market decline, and in 62% of the cases to a stock market crash."

Ugh.

****Mogambo sez: As price equilibrates supply and demand, the constantly rising price of gold all these past few years means that demand is higher than supply. That's all you need to know to buy anything, but especially gold at an economic time like this.

And Doubly Mogambo Especially So (DMES), maybe even Triply Mogambo Especially So (TMES) about silver, which will rise in price, like gold, not only because of the looming decline in the dollar, but also by the most glaring and startling fundamental imbalances in all of history!

Apr 25, 2006
Richard Daughty
email: RichardSmithGroup@verizon.net
Daughty Archives
The Daily Reckoning

Richard Daughty is general partner and C.O.O. for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the writer/publisher of the Mogambo Guru economic newsletter, an avocational exercise the better to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it. The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron's, The Daily Reckoning and other fine publications.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty042606.html

...man könnte vieles fett schreiben - eigentlich fast alles :hihi I love him :kiss

mama mia

27.04.2006, 09:21

...aus dem GoldForum :verbeug

Murenbeeld ist bekannt wegen seiner zutreffenden Prognosen für den Goldpreis.

Grüsse
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold price could soar to $700/oz this year: analyst
Zurich, Switzerland (Platts)--26Apr2006

The gold market rally will continue and the metal's price could finish out 2006 at or above $700/oz, said Canadian analyst Martin Murenbeeld Wednesday at the Denver Gold Group's annual European Gold Forum in Zurich. The likeliest price scenario would see gold's 2006 average price at $637/oz, a year-end price of $728/oz, and a [U]2007 average price of $789, Murenbeeld said. A year ago he predicted a 2005 average of $440/oz, and the actual average was $444/oz.
While the US dollar fared reasonably well in 2005 against other currencies, it is due for a downside correction of between 15% and 25%, said Murenbeeld. "The fourth quarter 2005 current account deficit was over 7% of GDP. This throws nearly $4 billion a day into foreign exchange markets. This $4 billion has to be absorbed; if not, the dollar falls."

Because of dollar inflation over the past decades, the gold price has just recently caught up to its 25-year average when valued in constant dollars, according to Murenbeeld. He added: "Gold is also very cheap in terms of oil. It takes less than 9 barrels of oil today to buy one ounce of gold, not an average of 17.5 barrels. If gold was priced at its average oil price, the gold price would be above $1,000/oz."

Nick J. Holland, CFO of South Africa's Gold Fields also forecast a year-end gold price of $700/oz in 2006. He said he doubted whether the Rand would weaken against the dollar this year.

--David Bond; newseditor@platts.com

mama mia

27.04.2006, 11:35

http://www.rickackerman.com/images/charts/26thApr20060756pm.jpg

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=909996#post909996)

;)

mama mia

27.04.2006, 16:46

Moin

endlich mal ne Meldung!

16:12 27Apr2006 RTRS-RPT-U.S. SEC SAYS REGISTRATION FOR BARCLAYS ISHARES SILVER TRUST DECLARED EFFECTIVE

Wise

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=910241#post910241)

:)

mama mia

27.04.2006, 17:19

...da er bei Goldseiten.de nicht mehr erscheint (...war einigen zeitweise zu kritisch) stell ich ihn mal hier rein:

Verfasser : ZPMO AG www.zpmo.ch 19. April 2006

Krieg gegen den Iran ?
Gold, Silber und Platin – wie weiter ?

Krieg ! Ein Wort das in den letzten Tagen und Wochen gern geschrieben und gesprochen wurde ! Vor allem im Zusammenhang mit Iran.
Leichtfertig – wie ich meine !

Lassen wir die Ereignisse noch einmal Revue passieren :

Am Jerusalem-Tag 2005 hält der neue iranische Präsident Ahmedinejad eine Rede, in der er verlangte, Israel müsse von der Weltkarte verschwinden.
Eine Rede notabene, die eigentlich gar nicht für das breite Publikum gedacht war. Erst eine Amateur-Video-Aufnahme brachte die Aussage in den Westen.
Fast gleichzeitig erscheinen in Dänemark in einer Satire-Zeitung Karikaturen mit dem Propheten Mohammed.
Noch dauert es 5 Monate bis diese Zeichnungen einen Sturm der moslemischen Entrüstung auslösen.
In Ihrer inszenierten Wut verbrennen libanesische Demonstranten sogar eine Schweizer Fahne – unter dem Motto – Hauptsache weisses Kreuz auf rotem Grund !

Als seine Ausfälle gegen Israel selbst im Iran nur noch Kopfschütteln auslösen, wechselt Präsident Ahmedinejad das Thema und beginnt an der Atommacht Iran zu bauen.
Mit durchschlagendem Erfolg !
Mit russischem Know-how und chinesischem Uran bastelt er fleissig an der „Bombe“ !

Ueberrascht, dass seine Worte so viel Wirkung zeigen, beginnt der iranische Präsident ein Spiel mit dem Westen, den westlichen Medien und den naiven westlichen Regierungen.
Wäre es nicht so tragisch und traurig, man müsste Präsident Ahmedinejad einen PR-Preis zukommen lassen.
Taktisch geschickt, wechselt er die Themen und findet in den westlichen Medien ein breites Sprachrohr für seine Hass-Tiraden gegen Israel und seine Atom-Politik.

Es dauert nicht lange, bis die ersten Meldungen den Weg in die Medien finden, dass die USA Angriffs-Pläne gegen den Iran gefasst hätten.
Wer sich mit Aussenpolitik und Verteidigung befasst weiss, dass eine Super-Macht wie die USA immer Pläne vorbereitet hat, mögliche Konflikte vorherzusehen und entsprechend zu agieren und zu reagieren.
Es mag für den Uneingeweihten unglaublich klingen, aber es gibt auch Pläne, Paris, Madrid oder Rom anzugreifen. Selbst die Hauptstadt der Schweiz, Bern, ist Bestandteil eines solchen Planes !
Darauf müssten wir Schweizer eigentlich Stolz sein, denn seit 1995 gehört keine deutsche Stadt mehr dazu !!
Auch in Moskau und Peking gibt es solche Pläne !
Es ist die Pflicht einer jeden militärischen Führung, zu Handen der politischen Verantwortlichen solche Pläne ständig zu aktualisieren.
So muss auch das Central Command, zuständig für den Iran, solche Pläne erarbeiten und den Umständen anpassen. Das heisst aber noch lange nicht, dass diese auch umgesetzt werden.

Das Pentagon nennt solche Leitlinien : Quadrennial Defense Review

Interessant an diesem Quadrennial Defense Review ist der Teil „Asien“

Das Wort „Krieg gegen den Iran“ ist zu einer beliebten Schlagzeile geworden.
Die angebliche Eröffnung einer Oel/Euro-Börse auf der Insel Kish sollte sogar der Ursprung des Weltuntergangs sein ! Wir erinnern uns : 20. – 26. März 2006 !!

Heute schreiben wir den 19. April 2006 Hurra – wir leben noch !

Immer wieder tauchen Meldungen auf, die USA hätten nun wirklich und definitiv Angriffspläne gegen den Iran und der amerikanische Präsident hätte auch schon eine entsprechende Direktive unterschrieben !
Die US-Boys and Girls würden nur noch auf ein „Ok“ aus dem Weissen Haus warten um loszuschlagen !

Betrachten wir die Tatsachen :

Die iranischen Atomanlagen umfassen 19 im ganzen Land verteilte Fabriken. Die grösste Fabrik „Busheher“ ist in der Nähe von Isfahan. Weit weg von Theheran.
Die Amerikaner müssten insgesamt 400 Ziele gleichzeitig angreifen, um sicher zu gehen, alle Fabriken ausser Gefecht gesetzt zu haben.
Nur sind die wichtigsten Fabriken gut geschützt und die iranische Armee ein etwas anderes Kaliber als die irakische Armee unter Saddam Hussein.
Zudem sind an der unmittelbaren Grenze zum Irak, 3 komplette mechanisierte Divisionen der iranischen Armee stationiert und bereit, innerhalb von 18 – 24 Std im Irak einzumarschieren und sie wären in weniger als 24 Std vor den Toren Bagdads.

Für das bereitstellen von Teilen des V. Korps benötigten die Amerikaner vor dem III. Irakkrieg 6 Monate !
Für die Verlegung der 4. mechanisierten Infanterie-Division aus der Türkei nach Kuwait benötigte Tommy Franks ganze 2 Monate !
Ein Einmarsch im Iran mit Bodentruppen wäre reiner Selbstmord ! Selbst wenn dafür die komplette I. US-Armee zur Verfügung stehen würde.
Ein Aufmarsch für eine Boden-Invasion würde wohl mehr als ein Jahr in Anspruch nehmen.
Bleibt noch die US-Air Force und US-Navy !
Um alle Ziele gleichzeitig auszuschalten würden die Amerikaner mehr als die Hälfte Ihrer strategischen Flugzeuge einsetzen müssen !
B-52 Bomber, B-1, B-2, F-117, F-15 und F-18 von der USS Ronald Reagan.
Ein Unterfangen, das der amerikanische Kongress bei der gegenwärtigen Stimmung kaum bewilligen würde.
Zum Einsatz kämen nicht nur konventionelle Bomben, sondern auch Bunker-Blast-Bomben, die in 30 m Tiefe einen nuklearen Sprengsatz zünden und eine Schockwelle auslösen würden.
Zudem sind die wichtigsten Ziele sehr gut bewacht und mit Luftabwehr-Raketen bestückt. Diesen Riegel zu knacken (F-16) wäre nur unter grossen Verlusten möglich.
Man stelle sich vor, eine amerikanische Bomber-Besatzung würde nach einem möglichen Abschuss lebend gefasst und in den Strassen Teherans den Massen vorgeführt !
Das Gleiche gilt für die israelische Luftwaffe ! Darum : Undenkbar !

Kommt es trotzdem zu einem Angriff, ganz ausschliessen kann man es nicht, und wird der militärische Schlag auch nur im begrenztem Rahmen geführt, die Folgen wären verheerend !
Noch sind die angeblichen 40'000 Selbstmord-Attentäter nur Propaganda !
Aber der Westen müsste mit einem Sturm von Attentaten leben und wie sagte es ein israelischer Offizier so treffend :“ Das wäre der Vorhof zur Hölle !“

Der überwiegende Teil der europäischen Regierungen wäre bei einem solchen Konflikt völlig überfordert und schlicht hilflos !

Was wären die Folgen für die Märkte ?

Panik !

Die Edelmetalle und der Oelpreis würden wahrscheinlich explodieren !
Ein Handel wäre kaum noch möglich !
Vorallem nicht an den Futures-Märkten und somit auch nicht für alle anderen Papier-Vehikel !
Glücklich, wer dann physisches Edelmetall besitzt und seinen Heizöl-Tank gefüllt hat !

Ich bin aber nach wie vor überzeugt, dass es zu keinem militärischen Schlag kommt ! Ein Sturz des jetzigen iranischen Präsidenten aus innenpolitischen Gründen erscheint mir schon eher möglich ! Wenn gleich auch nicht sofort !
Das politische Establishment und die Mullahs sind auffällig ruhig ! So als würden sie Ahmedinejad die Arbeit machen lassen um sich dann ins gemachte Nest setzen !

Kommen wir zu den Edelmetallen :

Der Goldpreis steigt und steigt – auf dem Papier !
Auch der Silberpreis erklimmt immer neue Höchst-Stände ! 25-Jahres-Hoch !

Aber eben – nur auf dem Papier ! Die physische Nachfrage ist mit Ausnahme in Deutschland massiv zurück gegangen.

Ab US$/oz 525.00 sind die physischen Käufe in Gold massiv zurück gegangen und ab US$/oz 600 begannen die ersten Gewinnmitnahmen, sogar bei physischem Gold !

Bei Silber gingen die physischen Käufe ab US$10.50 zurück und ab US$/oz 12.75 begannen die ersten Gewinnmitnahmen.
Bei ZPMO AG gibt es bereits die ersten Rücknahmen von physischem Silber !

Zur Zeit werden Unmengen vom Silbergranulat in Silber-Standardbarren umgeschmolzen und nach London zur Einlagerung geschickt. Das hat dazu geführt, dass die Silber-Lager in London aus allen Nähten platzen und das Silber zum Teil in der näheren und weiteren Umgebung von London ausgelagert werden muss.

Andererseits ist die momentane Nachfrage in der Silber-Schmuck-Industrie massiv zurück gegangen. (Jahresbedarf : ca. 270 Mio Unzen)
Einen Teil dieses Nachfrage-Rückganges wird zwar kompensiert durch die Anleger-Nachfrage von Silberbarren aber die höheren Preise hinterlassen doch schon erste Spuren.
Interessant ist auch die Tatsache, dass Silber-Verarbeiter der Silber-Industrie Granulat mit einem Preis-Discount offerieren !

Schon seit 3 Wochen wird eine Korrektur erwartet, gekommen ist sie nicht ! Die Frage ist erlaubt : Kommt sie überhaupt ?
Der Weg nach oben ist sowohl für Gold als auch für Silber offen !
Namhafte Schranken gibt es keine ! Gut, wer sucht, der findet immer !

Dass wir den Goldpreis bei US$/oz 850 schon in diesem Jahr sehen erscheint im gegenwärtigen Umfeld durchaus als möglich ! Der Markt ist völlig enthemmt !
Bei Silber ist der Weg offen bis US$/oz 50 und höher ! Warum nicht !

Doch : Vorsicht !
So schnell wie die Preise gestiegen sind, noch schneller können sie auch wieder fallen und noch mehr !
Wie schon an anderer Stelle erwähnt, testen die angelsächsischen Händler immer die weiche Seite ! Im Moment ist es der Aufwärtstrend, das kann sich aber sehr schnell ändern !
Fallen nach unten alle Schranken, steht einem Sell-Off nichts im Wege und wir finden uns bei Gold mit einem „vaterländischen Kater“ bei US$/oz 350 wieder !

Und auch Silber könnte seinen Höhenflug in einen veritablen Sturzflug ändern ! Dann stehen wir plötzlich wieder bei US$/oz 6 und keiner weiss warum !

Für mich sind zu viele Leute bullish und so genannte „Experten“, die in ihrem Leben noch nie ein Krümel Gold in Händen hielten, versuchen der Welt Gold und Silber zu erklären !

Ich wage es, eine einigermassen faire Bewertung von Gold und Silber abzugeben, unter den Parametern der momentanen wirtschaftlichen, politischen und militärischen Lage :

Gold US$/oz 475 – 525
Silber US$/oz 9.75 – 10.50

Wir können noch das Erdöl hinzu nehmen :

Crude Oil $/Barrel 48 – 58

Das würde heissen, wir hätten eine Spekulations-Prämie beim

Gold US$/oz 125
Silber US$/oz 4.50
Oil $/Barrel 14

Glaubt man den Gesetzen des Marktes, müsste der Preis sich beim Gold und Silber um diese Prämie auch nach unten durchsetzen.

Somit hätten wir ein mögliches Preisziel beim

Gold US$/oz 375
Silber US$/oz 6.00
Oil $/Barrel 39

Sie müssen mich nicht gleich für verrückt erklären, aber ein solches Szenario ist durchaus möglich !
Das heisst nicht, dass der mehrjährige Trend damit gebrochen ist ! Ganz im Gegenteil !
Ich bin nach wie vor überzeugt, dass sich der Goldpreis und der Dow Jones Index bei 1250 treffen werden und Silber wird deutlich über US$/oz 100 gehandelt !

Wie sagte schon Marc Faber :“Volatilitäten von 30 – 70 % werden in Zukunft keine Seltenheit mehr sein !“

If you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen !

Aber wer immer nur auf die Korrektur wartet, und nie auch handelt, den wird das Leben auf brutale Art und Weise bestrafen !

Physisches Gold und Silber gehört in jedes Portefeuille !

Womit können Sie langfristig Geld verdienen ?

Gold
Silber
Kaffee Vortrag von ZPMO AG www.zpmo.ch/veranstaltungen
Platin Gibt es auch in Pt bald einen ETF ?

Gerne verweisen wir auf der Internet-Seite : www.bacfund.ch dort finden Sie ein interessantes Produkt im Zusammenhang mit Platin !

Für nähere Informationen steht Ihnen Herr Loriol gerne zur Verfügung !

mama mia

28.04.2006, 17:22

...gewisse Momente muss man immer wieder festhalten ;)

mama mia

28.04.2006, 17:27

Silver ETF makes market debut...at last
iShares Silver Trust Each opens on Amex exchange Friday after getting go-ahead from regulators; one share will be worth 10 ounces of silver.
April 28, 2006: 10:27 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Trading in the first ever investment fund backed by silver launched Friday on the American Stock Exchange, according to Amex and the security's developer, Barclays Global Investors.

The iShares Silver Trust, with the trading symbol SLV (Research), launched when the market opened at 9:30 a.m. ET. and was trading at $131.10 a share shortly after the opening bell.

Members of Barclays iShares group will ring the opening bell at the exchange to kick off the listing of the long-awaited exchange-traded fund.

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday removed the last regulatory obstacle to the innovative fund, which will let investors track moves in silver bullion without the hassle and cost of storage, insurance and transport.

"Because the silver-backed ETF will be listed on a major stock exchange, shares in it are easily traded like any equity investment," said Michael DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute in Washington.

"This investment vehicle will give a wide-range of investors the opportunity to diversify their portfolio with exposure to silver."

The ETF will be backed by bullion stored in vaults in allocated accounts. Each share will be worth 10 ounces of silver.

Silver prices have risen as much as 67 percent this year on expectations that the ETF would lift demand for the metal, which is used in jewelry, photography and dentistry.

After years of weak silver prices, the market has become one of the best performers in commodities in recent months.

U.S. silver futures hit a 23-year high last week at $14.69 per ounce, but slipped more than 9 percent on Monday following profit-taking. In early trade Friday, benchmark July silver rallied 3 percent to $12.99, up 40 cents.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/28/funds/etf_silver.reut/index.htm?section=money_latest

mama mia

28.04.2006, 19:02

1. Tag :dance :D http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SLV&t=1d

mama mia

29.04.2006, 10:53

...bin ja mal gespannt wie sich das alles entwickelt :rolleyes :o ;) :D

mama mia

29.04.2006, 10:56

Jason Hommel schreibt:

Silver set to explode in price
-- SEC clears Barclays iShares Silver Trust
-- Launch of Barclays' Silver ETF Imminent
-- Hundred-Year Long Trend of Low Silver Prices is Ending

Valued Subcriber!

The SEC has Cleared the Barclays Silver ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). The ETF will allow investors to buy silver as easily as they buy stocks, and the trading symbol on the AMEX should be SLV, and could start trading as early as tomorrow, or by the end of next week.

Interestingly, Barclays has only deposited 1.5 million ounces of silver with their bullion custodian, not the 130 million ounces that was anticipated. Thus, the significant silver buying has not yet started, and is still to come, especially as the large pension funds with hundreds of billions of dollars start buying. Most of the large funds cannot buy silver unless it is in the form of an ETF, and the ETF was built to enable these funds to buy silver. If even 1% of just one of the largest funds is invested into the Silver ETF, it would be over $2 billion, which, at $13/oz., is over 153 million ounces of silver, which is far more silver than is available at the NYMEX, the large commodity exchange in New York.

;)

mama mia

29.04.2006, 18:45

Rick's Picks

Gold Taunts Meek Buyers

Rick Ackerman
Monday, May 01
Excerpt from the current Rick's Picks (website).
You can subscribe here.

While I’ve expressed mild skepticism in the past that an ounce of gold will eventually change hands for $10,000, there is no longer much room to doubt that the old high at $850 is destined to fall. How long it will take for prices to blow past that peak and hit $1,000? Count me among the lunatics on this question, since I think it’s going to happen well before the end of the year and perhaps even before :eek autumn.

How can I be so sure? Simply because of the way gold's fleeting lows continue to elude hesitant buyers. Clearly, many would-be investors are holding back in hopes of significantly lower prices. This is simply human nature. After all, if they couldn’t bring themselves to buy the stuff at $400, or at $500, how can they possibly justify paying $656 for it today?

So, these johnny-come-latelies continue to wait for a BIG correction. Not just a $40 selloff like the one we saw a week or so ago, but a full-blown avalanche that presumably would bring gold down to “affordable” levels in just a few short weeks. A word of advice: Don’t hold your breath. Gold might sell off hard for a few days, or maybe even chop lower for a week or two, but that will be about as good as it gets for bargain hunters. And here’s some more bad news for procrastinators: Even when bullion does get slammed, it will never come down to whatever levels you thought would constitute a “bargain”.
full story: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

...bin ja mal gespannt ob das wirklich so rasant aufwärts geht :confused :rolleyes :o ;) :D

mama mia

30.04.2006, 12:43

http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/MPAnne.jpg Gold: Much More To Go

By: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden, The Aden Forecast

April 28, 2006

Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com/)

Gold is soaring. Today it rose over $18 and reached yet another new 25 year high.

Silver has been in a league of its own. It’s been soaring too and it’s been even stronger than gold. The other metals and oil are surging as well, and so are gold shares, energy and natural resource shares.

So what’s driving these markets? Essentially, it’s a combination of financial and geopolitical factors. But many are now warning that these markets are overdone and they’ll soon be headed lower. And while downward corrections are certainly normal in any bull market, we wouldn’t bet against these bull markets.

Why? Because something much larger is currently happening for the first time in about 25 years. It’s the mega upmove in commodities and tangible assets, which is poised to last for many more years (see chart). Aside from geopolitical and financial factors, this mega uptrend alone is going to be very bullish for the metals in the years ahead and we feel it’s important to understand this very big picture.

http://goldseek.com/news/AdenResearch/2006/adench-apr28-2.GIF

THE MEGA COMMODITY CYCLE

Marc Faber writes a great, always informative newsletter and he discusses these cycles in depth, which were studied by the Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff and are, therefore, referred to as the Kondratieff waves. These waves last between 45 to 60 years from peak to peak and the rising waves are characterized by rising commodity prices, new innovations, social upheaval, global economic power shifts and wars.

Briefly, new innovations, which tend to occur during the preceding cost cutting down wave, result in new countries competing on the world stage. This increases global tension because the new competitors (like China today) erode the old economic powerhouse’s share of world markets. It also creates wealth imbalances at home, leading to possible social unrest, and wars abroad. This recurring pattern has happened throughout history. It’s been documented going back to 1780 and it’s now happening again.

Previous Kondratieff upmoves, for example, coincided with the following innovations: in the first one there was road, canal and bridge construction; in the second it was railroads; third was electricity, radio, telephone and autos; in the fourth it was electronics and aerospace and now in the fifth upswing it’s telecommunications and internet.

These rising waves also coincided with the following wars and revolutions, to name but a few: the U.S. war of Independence, French Revolution, Napoleonic wars, Austro-Hungary Revolution, U.S. Civil war, Spanish-American war, Chinese Revolution, World War I, Russian Revolution, World War II and the Vietnam war.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

These mega Kondratieff upmoves normally last around 22 years or more and since we’re only six years into this mega upmove, it still has many years to go. This means commodity prices will likely be rising for the next 15 years or so. This tells us that you’ll want to keep a large portion of your assets in tangible assets like gold, other metals and commodities, and not in paper assets like stocks and bonds.

Gold’s mega uptrend since 2001 is reinforcing this. The booming rise in oil and the ongoing demand in the face of diminishing supplies in the years ahead is yet another reinforcement of this emerging mega uptrend.

Those who recognize this will profit handsomely. But those who follow the mainstream and keep a large portion of their savings in common stocks, especially those approaching retirement age, will be disappointed. And while we certainly don’t have a crystal ball, the markets and history are also telling us we’re going to be in for a period of wars and social unrest in the upcoming years.

In other words, what we’ve seen in recent years is going to continue and it’ll probably intensify. This too will provide an underlying boost for gold because it tends to rise along with global tension. And considering that gold hit over $2000 an ounce in 1980 at the last Kondratieff peak, adjusted for inflation, it still has a long way to go in the years ahead before it even approaches that previous high.

--

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com/)

-- Posted Sunday, 30 April 2006
Previous Articles by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden (http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/)
http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1146409320.php

mama mia

02.05.2006, 12:53

Seasons of Gold

By Doug Casey
The International Speculator
May 1, 2006

The April 2006 issue of the International Speculator leads with the article below on the seasonality of gold. (To sign up for your copy, click here (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0406A).)

Included in the article are charts by analyst extraordinaire Bud Conrad, showing the monthly average annualized increase in gold since 1975.

Given the current gold trend, I urge you to give gold and gold stocks an appropriate place in your portfolio.

Doug Casey

Long-term subscribers are already aware of a resource market phenomenon broadly referred to as the "quiet season," which we here at Casey Research tend to view as the "Shopping Season."

You also might call it summer.

As you can see in Chart A, which summarizes gold's monthly price moves over the past 30 years, the yellow metal typically shows weakness from February to April, rallies in May, then heads down for summer. In August, gold typically begins to rebound and moves up pretty much for the rest of the year. Of course, this is an average pattern, not an invariable one. In 10 years out of the last 30, gold dropped in the fourth quarter.

Even so, the long-term data suggests the average pattern is worth paying attention to.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey050106/a.jpg But will the pattern hold up in the current bull market? The historical data is sparse, in that gold has traded freely only since Nixon closed the gold window on August 15, 1971. That triggered gold's only secular bull market so far, from $35 in August 1971 to $850 in January 1980. For the moment, let's discount that market's first big leg, to Dec 1974 (when gold reached $200), as catch-up for decades of currency inflation. The best analogy to our current circumstance is the period from August 1976, when the metal bottomed at $103, to gold's peak in 1980. The chart for that 5-year bull market fits the long-term pattern quite well.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey050106/b.jpg But Why?

Why should gold bullion have a seasonal pattern? There are several reasons, among the more important being the jewelry market, which accounts for about three quarters of the gold sold each year.

What we see for the fourth quarter of each is the impact of the gift-giving tradition associated with the druid Winter Solstice, now known as Christmas. Layered on top of that is the Indian festival season of Diwali, which kicks off in November and continues through the first leg of the traditional wedding season in December.

In Chart A, you'll see noticeable spikes in both January and September, months when Indian manufacturers typically restock inventories to meet the demands of the two Indian wedding seasons. The first, mentioned above, starts in November and ends in December. The second starts in late March and runs through into early May.

Can Indian jewelry buying be a major driver of gold market seasonality? Probably. Don't forget that gold, viewed as an industrial commodity, has been in a primary supply deficit since 1990; more has been used than produced, and the world has been living out of inventory. Now Western central banks are slowing their illadvised selling, and people in China, Russia, the Mideast and India will be buying in size. Further, in 2005, investment in gold ETFs and similar financial products showed a 53% increase, to 203 tonnes. And things are barely starting to warm up.

Given the tight supply and growing demand, this is a market where prices are very much set on the margin, which is where India plays a role. As you are no doubt aware, India traditionally has an affinity for gold, expressed most emphatically in wedding rituals.

The propensity to lavish gold on blushing brides has kept pace with the country's rapidly rising wealth (its GDP growth has been better than 6% annually since the early nineties and is expected to top 8.1% in 2006). Economic success has fostered an entire new Indian middle class and middle-class wannabes with new-found wealth to be stashed and neighbors to be impressed. That adds an important new dimension to the gold market, helped along by a trend for Indian banks to aggressively market loans specifically for the purpose of buying gold during the wedding season.

In fact, in 2005 Indian gold jewelry sales rose by 25%, and now that country takes credit for about 23% of the world's consumer gold sales. The U.S., at #2, takes down just 12%.

Jewelry buying is nice and certainly contributes to gold's seasonality. But remember, what's really going to supercharge the market is buying by central banks and the public, as they increasingly realize that the dollars they're sitting on are melting.

The Gold Stocks

The summer dip in gold, needless to say, doesn't help gold stocks. And it's amplified by the habits of Canadian brokers, who deal with their relatively short northern summer by taking relatively long summer vacations. That means fewer stories being breathlessly told to listeners with cash.

Even worse, the brokers -- wanting to keep their clients safe while they themselves lounge at lakeside cabins -- begin telling clients in March to sell and sit aside during the summer months, which sucks more air out of the market. Of course it's not just the gold stocks; there's a lot of wisdom to the old saw "Sell in May, go away". It's worth noting, however, that here we are in April and we see little sign of gold stock weakness -- suggesting that there is either less selling going on or more buying from new-to-sector investors... or, likely, both.

And the people who do the actual exploration generally are busiest in the summer, typically working in remote areas of the Northern Hemisphere largely inaccessible in the winter. The absence of explorers from their offices translates into a dearth of news, made worse by the fact that even if there were new, the companies would want to hold on to it until it would do them some good -- i.e. when there are brokers actually sitting at their desks.

To recap, in the summer gold bullion prices soften, resource brokers stop working the phones, and explorers head out to kick rocks and go incommunicado. There's a news slowdown, low trading volumes and a flat to declining market for resource equities from about April 1 to about August 1, give or take a month.

And it is during that quiet period that we happily focus on shopping for our favorite stocks.

Or at least, that's the way it is supposed to work.

The Crystal Ball

I'm not going to tell you that things are going to be different this year. But only because the person who tells you "this time is different" is usually wrong and often walks into a disaster.

However, when pondering gold's seasonality, it's better not to focus on just the long-term pattern shown in Chart A or even the five-year average pattern in Chart B. They show what's normal -- not what's inevitable.

Instead, focus more on Chart C below, which paints a straightforward portrait of gold's daily price action from January 1975 through January 1980. While the seasonal pattern generally holds up, the trend is clearly for higher lows and higher highs throughout.

That is, in our view, the track we are currently on. While gold's price reflects the long-term seasonal pattern, the pattern is overlaid on a strong upward trend.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey050106/c.jpg And lest you have any doubt, I am convinced we are now in the gold (and silver) bull market for the record books, a bull market that will surprise even me with its strength. And that's saying something.

In the way of evidence that this year is going to surprise and delight, simply look at gold's price action so far. Instead of the seasonal slump following January, gold has powered ahead and partied on in 2006 and is now trading at over $620, a 17% increase since the first of the year.

Based on traditional patterns alone, Bud Conrad, who assembled Chart D, projects that gold could be headed to $700 this year. He calculates how fast gold was rising over the 1976 to 1979 period and applies that to the price at the start of this year to see how high gold might rise. The dotted line shows the projection from history, and the solid line shows the actual so far this year. Needless to say, we are off to a great start.

I think this could be conservative, and breaking even $750 by year-end wouldn't surprise me. As bad as things were in the late 1970s, the last secular bull market for gold, they are much, much worse now, by pretty much every measure. Whether the level of debt, the size of the entrenched and philosophically unsound bureaucracy, the Current Account Deficit, the Forever War raging on a nearly global basis, the entrenched and worsening problems with entitlement programs, the trillions of perilously perched derivatives... The list, unfortunately, goes on.

Chart D shows how the market could behave if the price replays the trend of the bull market of the late 1970s. You can use it as a baseline, something to watch as a way of gauging just how wild things are getting in gold and -- by extension -- gold stocks, over the coming year.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey050106/d.jpg How We Play It

I doubt we'll see much of the traditional pullback this summer. But if it occurs, don't hesitate to use it to back up the truck for your favorite stocks. To help in that regard, we publish a quarterly Buy, Sell and Hold issue of the International Speculator, with updated recommendations on all the stocks we are following -- now enhanced with our indications of "Best Buys" and analysis of company press releases on the Casey Research web site. And don't neglect adding to your hoard of physical gold coins.

Looking over our stocks, I have to say that there has never been, in my experience at least, a better slate of junior explorers to choose from.

That's thanks to many factors, including improvements in technology, the general lack of exploration over the last 30 years and the opening up of the ex-communist block to foreign investment. Toss in strong metals prices and talented management teams, and you have all the ingredients for significant discoveries.

While it's too early to tell whether we'll get a mega-discovery -- of 10 million ounces or more-this year, the odds hugely favor a number of 1- to 3-million-ounce discoveries being made. As discussed at some length in IS XXVI, No. 12, December 2005, "How High Will Your Gold Shares Go?", the combination of much higher gold and silver prices, big discoveries and the near certainty of a collapsing dollar, will create an uber-bull... a once-in-a lifetime chance to make life-changing profits quickly.

I know you may find it hard to believe, but by the time this thing is over, your $.50 cent stocks will be trading for $5.00, and your $2.00 stocks, for $20. Or more. It's going to be at least as wild as the Internet market was in the late '90s.

Given that view, it's hard to see a summer pullback for gold, should there be one, in anything other than a positive light.

You can keep your powder dry for the next little while and look to pick stocks for less during dips. Or you can just keep buying, riding the tides and ignoring the dips altogether. That's the approach I'll be taking... show me a good company, run by good people, working a good project and selling at the right price, and I'm a buyer... though at this time of year, being patient to let the market come to you probably makes the most sense.

If there was one misstep you could make at this point, it would be to get scared off by the inevitable volatility and step aside until it gets "safe" to come back in. Too often that results in missing major up-moves. Trying to pick the tops or bottoms of any market is a fool's game.

A final thought: This market trend is solidly in motion. While it may periodically scare you as much as it thrills you, at no point doubt that it is your friend. Treat it accordingly and it will treat you well. In fact, even better than you likely imagine.

Editor's Note: While buying physical gold and silver is definitely a good idea, following Doug's recommendations for gold and silver stocks is an even better one. With a fairly low level of risk, those stocks are known to bring quick double and triple returns - and sometimes much, much more than that. Subscribe to the International Speculator to get Doug's monthly stock picks (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0406A).

-Doug Casey
The International Speculator

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321gold Inc
http://www.321gold.com/images/home2.gif
(http://www.321gold.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey050106.html (http://www.321gold.com/)

mama mia

02.05.2006, 18:26

CHARTWORKS - APRIL 28, 2006
Silver Exchange Fund (SLV) on AMEX
Trading Opportunity Long SLV : Short Silver Producers

Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
May 2, 2006

Now that the Silver ETF is trading, we can look forward to more strength in the bullion vs the stocks. While the ETF will understandably attract new money to the sector over time, there will also be a shift in money from the mining stocks to the bullion.

In the case of the Gold ETF (GLD), the 'go to stocks' started underperforming on the first day of trading (11/18/04). Gold prices appreciated by 2% through 12/03/04, but the stocks failed to make new highs. The subsequent correction saw a 10% price break in the bullion and a 15-25% break in the stocks into April-May.

GOLD EXAMPLE 2004 [click on chart to enlarge]
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050206/1_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050206/1.gif) As can be seen from the following examples, silver stocks are already underperforming bullion.

As of mid-day on April 28th (not shown on the charts) the silver price is up 8% while the silver stocks are up 3% to 4.5%.

[click on chart to enlarge]
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050206/2_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050206/2.gif) -Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com

(http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/)CHARTWORKS - APRIL 28, 2006

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050206.html

mama mia

02.05.2006, 18:31

...wird wohl schwierig auch für die Minen :rolleyes

02.05.2006

BOLIVIEN

Raffinerien unter Armee-Kontrolle

Die Verstaatlichung des Energiesektors in Bolivien sorgt weltweit für Unruhe. Der Ölpreis näherte sich wieder seinem Rekordhoch. Die ausländischen Öl- und Gaskonzerne müssen ihre Lizenzen Boliviens neuer Regierung übergeben, ihre Produktionsstätten stehen unter der Kontrolle der Armee.

La Paz – Die Energiebranche hat eine Sorge mehr: Bescherte bislang vor allem der schwelende Atomkonflikt mit dem Iran den Energieverbrauchern weltweit steigende Preise, blicken die Öl- und Gaskonzerne seit dem Wochenanfang auch mit sorgenvoller Miene nach Lateinamerika.

Denn nach der Verstaatlichung des Energiesektors in Bolivien kontrollieren Soldaten die Gasfelder und Raffinerien des südamerikanischen Landes. Aufgabe der Streitkräfte sei es, den Betrieb der Anlagen sicherzustellen, sagte ein Militärsprecher am Dienstag. Präsident Evo Morales hatte am Vortag ein Dekret erlassen, das ausländische Konzerne verpflichtet, ihre Produktion dem Staat zu unterstellen. Bolivien hat nach Venezuela die zweitgrößten Erdgasvorkommen Südamerikas.Der US-Ölpreis pendelte sich nach einem kräftigen Kursschub bei rund 74 Dollar ein. Im asiatischen Handel legte der Preis für ein Barrel (159 Liter) der US-Sorte WTI mit Auslieferung im Juni um sieben Cent auf 73,77 Dollar zu. Der Ölpreis nähert sich damit wieder dem am 21. April erreichten Rekordhoch von 75,35 Dollar an.

Zum Tag der Arbeit am 1. Mai hatte Boliviens linker Präsident ein Dekret unterzeichnet, nach dem alle ausländischen Unternehmen sofort die Lizenzen für ihre Erdgasfelder dem Staat übergeben und die neuen Betriebsverträge innerhalb von 180 Tagen unterzeichnen müssen. Andernfalls drohe ihnen die Ausweisung.

http://www.manager-magazin.de/static/images/trans.gif
Morales rechtfertigte seinen Schritt mit den Worten: "Das Plündern durch die ausländischen Unternehmen ist beendet." Er sprach von einem "historischen Tag", an dem Bolivien die Kontrolle über seine natürlichen Ressourcen zurückerhalte.Nach dem Erlass wird der gesamte Erdgassektor des Landes staatlicher Kontrolle unterstellt - auch der Gasverkauf. Damit ändert sich die Rechtslage grundlegend: Bislang gehörten nur die unterirdischen Lagerstätten dem Staat, das geförderte Gas ging hingegen in den Besitz des Förderunternehmens über. Die Gasförderer werden nunmehr auf ihre Rolle als Anlagenbetreiber beschränkt. Dafür erhalten sie von der staatlichen Energieagentur Geld. Generell soll ihnen eine Summe zukommen, die rund 50 Prozent des Produktionswerts entspricht. Für die beiden größten Gasfelder des Landes ist indes offenbar ein verringerter Satz von 18 Prozent geplant. Repsol http://www.manager-magazin.de/images/chrt.gif (http://boersen.manager-magazin.de/mmo/suche.htm?isin=ES0173516115) und Total Fina Elf http://www.manager-magazin.de/images/chrt.gif (http://boersen.manager-magazin.de/mmo/suche.htm?isin=FR0000120271) erklärten, es sei noch zu früh, den Erlass zu kommentieren.

Mit dem Versprechen, den Erdgassektor zu verstaatlichen und die Bevölkerung an den Einnahmen zu beteiligen, gewann Morales im Dezember vergangenen Jahres die Wahl. Er ist der erste bolivianische Präsident, der der indianischen Bevölkerungsmehrheit angehört.

· Transneft: Russland hält Ölpreis für zu niedrig (24.04.2006) (http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/artikel/0,2828,412823,00.html)
· Ölpreis: Furcht und Knappheit (11.04.2006) (http://www.manager-magazin.de/geld/artikel/0,2828,410928,00.html)

Morales kündigte an, die Verstaatlichung des Erdgassektors sei erst der Anfang. "Morgen werden es die Minen, der Wald und das Land sein", sagte der Präsident am Montag vor tausenden Anhängern in La Paz.Die EU äußerte sich in einer ersten Reaktion besorgt über die Entwicklung in Bolivien. Die Verstaatlichung der Gasfelder könnte sich negativ auf den weltweiten Energiemarkt auswirken, sagte EU-Kommissionssprecher Ferran Tarradellas Espuny in Brüssel. Mangels eines Flüssiggas-Terminals gebe es keine Gasausfuhren Boliviens in die EU. Allerdings könne die Entscheidung nach Einschätzung der Kommission "einen negativen Einfluss auf die Märkte haben", die ohnehin sehr angespannt und nervös seien.

http://www.manager-magazin.de/images/pf_r.gifWeiter zu Teil 2: "Tiefe Besorgnis" (http://www.manager-magazin.de/geld/artikel/0,2828,414124-2,00.html)

http://www.manager-magazin.de/geld/artikel/0,2828,414124,00.html

mama mia

02.05.2006, 22:32

heute CDE minus 8,3% :rolleyes SIL minus 15,7% :rolleyes

mama mia

02.05.2006, 22:44

...mit bestem :verbeug an schuldenblase ;):)

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

mama mia

03.05.2006, 15:38

...wir langsam sehr heiss :rolleyes

Irrational exuberance in the metals?

Jack Chan
www.traderscorporation.com (http://www.traderscorporation.com/)
May 3, 2006

The famous speech made by Alan Greenspan actually took place in Dec 1996, when Nasdaq was at 1300, up a whopping 200% in six years.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan050306/1.gif Looking at the Naz chart at the time, the technical indicators were not confirming the new high in price, along with Greenspan's hint that the market may be over extended, enticed many early bears and naysayers.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan050306/2.gif Of course, we all know what happened. Naz went on to gain another 300% in the next three years, giving us one of the most memorable bull markets in modern history.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan050306/3.gif And the bears were correct, the Naz did collapse, but three years and 300% later. The spectacular crash although brutal, never did exceed the low of 96. The moral of the story is, do not get ahead of the markets, follow them.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan050306/4.gif We've been buyers of gold since around $275, and the 150% rise has been great. Having experienced the Nasdaq bubble taught me two things: Nothing goes up forever, when the party is over, move on. But don't try to pick a top, the exuberance of an irrational bull market can last much longer than we are capable of comprehending.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan050306/5.gif Silver is in an "IP" and subscribers have been advised to sit tight until a violation of support, at which point partial profits can be taken, while holding a core position with stops at breakeven.

Summary

From the emails I have received from both subscribers and public readers the past few weeks, it is my observation that the new highs in metals and mining indices are making many very nervous, which is understandable. But being nervous is not a sell signal. The fact that quite a few prominent analysts have been anticipating a major sell off in the metals since last December which has yet to materialize, leaving thousands of gold bulls behind and out of the current awesome rally, will continue to add fuel to the fire as more and more are fed up waiting and will jump in at any cost. Therefore, while we are enjoying the seemingly endless rally and watching our profits grow nervously, be mentally prepared for the inevitable correction which could plunge the indexes by double digits percentage points. When will this happen, I cannot tell you because I honestly don't know. But we will certainly take partial profits upon a violation of support and buy back when the correction is completed.

Keep it simple, and follow the markets.

End of report

May 1, 2006
Jack Chan
Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jack+Chan)
email: info@traderscorporation.com
website: www.traderscorporation.com (http://www.traderscorporation.com/)

mama mia

04.05.2006, 08:54

Gold versus Oil

Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
May 3, 2006 Below is an extract from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com (http://www.speculative-investor.com/) on 27th April 2006.

There isn't a consistent relationship between gold and oil. In fact, the number of barrels of oil it takes to buy one ounce of gold tends to make huge swings -- from below 10 to above 25 and then back again -- and doesn't spend much time at all near its long-term average of 15. These huge swings are illustrated on the following sharelynx.com (http://www.sharelynx.com (http://www.sharelynx.com/)) chart of the gold/oil ratio.

With respect to the current situation, the only reasonable conclusions we can draw from the historical performance of the gold/oil ratio are:

a) At the end of last August, in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, gold was as cheap relative to oil as it has been at any time over the past 35 years, and although it has out-performed since that time it is still very cheap relative to oil.

b) Over the past 35 years there have, prior to last year, been 4 times (1976, 1982, 1990 and 2000) when the gold/oil ratio dropped into single digits. In each case the ratio rebounded to above 15 within the ensuing 2 years.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/saville/saville050206.gif Now, just because markets performed in a certain way in the past doesn't mean they will perform that way in the future. It could be argued, for example, that there's been such a big change in oil's supply/demand situation that the gold/oil ratio will continue to move lower over the coming years.

Our view is that the gold/oil ratio made a major bottom last year and will, as a minimum, move up to 15-20 within the next two years. There are two main reasons for this.

First and as explained in previous commentaries, there is a lot of evidence that inflation expectations remain quite low despite the many obvious signs of an inflation problem. This suggests that few people appreciate the bullish case for gold -- gold has, we think, been pushed higher as part of a general commodity play rather than as a monetary play -- and, therefore, that the market hasn't yet begun to really discount gold's bullish fundamentals. On the other hand, is there anyone in the world who isn't well versed on the bullish case for oil?

Second, a sharply higher gold price would have no direct effect on commerce whereas a sharply higher oil price would hinder economic growth (and thus sow the seeds for a reduction in oil demand). A rising gold price might be perceived as evidence of an emerging inflation problem and might therefore create upward pressure on interest rates, but then again it might be possible for the media and the monetary authorities to explain away a substantial rise in the gold price as a reaction to geopolitical tensions, or China's growth, or gold buying by Arab sheiks, or falling mine supply, or something else unrelated to the true cause (inflation). The bottom line is that the gold price could rise to a multiple of its current level without making a significant difference to the economy (except to the extent that it affected inflation expectations), but the oil price could not do the same.

Steve Saville
http://www.321gold.com/ads/smallsaville.gif (http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html?321gold)email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Hong Kong

Regular financial market forecasts and analyses are provided at our web site:
http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html (http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html?321gold). One-month free trial available.

Copyright ©2002-2006 speculative-investor.com All Rights Reserve

mama mia

04.05.2006, 12:07

Hier mal ein ganz interessanter Dollar-Chart:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/DollarOilGold.asp
Link: http://www.bullandbearwise.com/DollarOilGoldChart.asp

Dollar in Gold+Erdöl ;)

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=913714#post913714)

merci :)

mama mia

04.05.2006, 17:05

Bocksprünge :rolleyes

mama mia

04.05.2006, 23:03

http://www.freemarketnews.com/eRadioLaunch.asp?rid=592

FMNN eRadio - Guest: Louie James
SILVER ETF: Casey Research writer Mr. Louie James describes the first day of Silver ETF trading.

:verbeug

mama mia

04.05.2006, 23:14

...noch nicht ganz gelesen :rolleyes - scheint aber mal eine etwas andere Ansicht zu sein

May 05, 2006

Bull in Bear's Skin?
by Antal E. Fekete

Dear Mr. Northwest:

Thank you for asking the provocative question whether the current bull market in gold is stage-produced by the powers-that-be in order to divert attention from the deliberate devaluation of all currencies. Your letter has given me an opportunity to sort out my own thoughts on the subject. Here is the result.

Supply and demand

My analysis of the gold and silver market is very different from the conventional. I am a monetary scientist. Supply and demand equilibrium analysis means nothing to me. For a monetary metal both supply and demand are undefinable. There is no way to quantify speculative supply, still less demand. Yet without it the gold market is like Hamlet without the prince, to borrow a phrase from Samuelson.

Speculators can jump back and forth between the long and the short side of the market at a moment's notice, and in case of monetary disturbances they do. If you insist on using these concepts, the most you can say is that both the supply of and the demand for the monetary metal or its paper substitutes are infinite. Therefore the price can approach any conceivable figure, including infinity for the metal, zero for the paper substitutes. Of course, the banks and the government want to maintain the myth that futures markets provide a reliable link between the two. The fact remains, however, that this link is tenuous and illusory.

It follows that any scientific analysis of the gold market must sidestep concepts such as supply, demand, equilibrium price and replace them with concepts such as asked price, bid price, spread, basis, contango, backwardation.

[/B]Corner and short squeeze[/B]

The literature on corners is scanty. Yet it is the possibility of corners and short squeezes that must be analyzed if we want to understand the present situation. The facts are as follows. While short squeezes are common, true corners are exceedingly rare. So much so that some authors flatly deny that successful corners are possible save under siege or blockade. By a corner I mean the attempt of longs in a commodity exchange to prevent the shorts from making good on their contractual obligations by forestalling supply. However, the shorts are going to move heaven and earth to get supplies to the market in time for delivery. The higher the longs have bid the price, the greater the incentive for the shorts to deliver. If we examine the historical corners in the Chicago wheat pit we shall see that every one of them was a short squeeze that fell short of being a successful corner. The shorts used every available means of conveyance from dinghies to triremes, from barrows to lorries to move supplies from distant places to the appointed elevators in time.

Contrary to popular beliefs, the shorts are not stupid. Nor are they suicidal. They are responsible businessmen well able to calculate, including calculation of the cost of transportation by the fastest conveyances available such as supersonic aircraft if need be to carry supplies half-way around the globe. Whenever they sell short, they are not acting on impulse. They act on cold facts. They know full well that the futures markets fail to be symmetric. They know that there is a built-in bias favoring the longs at the expense of the bears: the risk shouldered by the former is limited (as the price cannot fall below zero) while that shouldered by the latter is unlimited (as the price can theoretically go to infinity). Whereas an individual short seller might miscalculate, it is virtually impossible that the shorts collectively would.

Are the shorts really naked?

It is a fatal mistake to underestimate your opponents, in this case the short sellers in precious metals, arguably the smartest lot on earth. They know how to do what Aristotle and latter-day economists have said was impossible: to make gold beget gold. I don't for a moment give credence to the fable that the commercials are selling short naked. Most of their short position is hedged most of the time, if not directly by metal in their possession, then certainly indirectly by metal in the possession of the principals, i.e., for whom they act as a man of straw. The commercials are agents. They act on behalf of their customers, be they wealthy individuals who want to sell call options or futures on their gold hoard anonymously, or banks and governments that do not want you to find out what they are up to. The fact is that selling covered calls and puts is a more efficient way for a bull to husband his resources than buying gold and sitting on it.

Consider the hypothetical scenario that the government of Israel wants unobtrusively accumulate gold. Or, to furnish an example of a more populous country, let's assume that the government of China wants unobtrusively to accumulate silver in any conceivable amounts. The task is cut out for both countries. They have respectable hoards to begin with. Gold is the most portable form of wealth and the most frequently mentioned word in the Bible after God. China has been on a silver standard since time immemorial and did not participate in the silver-demonetization farce of the 19th century. The best course of action for a government wanting to accumulate gold or silver is to mislead the market by fomenting the bearish case. The net short position in gold represents its stake that it is willing to risk in an effort to get more gold and silver through market manipulation. In other words, the net short position is only apparent, a red herring to throw gold bugs off the scent. It is the tip of the iceberg that you can see and touch. What you don't see and can't touch is the bulk of the iceberg submerged: the huge physical gold and silver hoards that the owner wants to increase further by hook or crook. It can be done by hiring agents in the commodity pits. The commercials sell the metals short in excess of visible supplies, acting on behalf of their faceless principals. They sell more gold than the future output of the mines going out five years. They sell more silver than the total inventory held in exchange warehouses. The longs take the bait eagerly. They buy and hold in the hope that the shorts are overextended and will not be able to deliver. The point is that this is exactly what the shorts want them to believe.

It is easy to predict what will happen in such a situation. The longs are sitting ducks and the shorts keep preying on them. They raid them periodically so that, after the shake-out, they can pick up gold and silver dropped by weak hands. Not only do they buy back what they have sold short as bait; they pick up a lot more. It is a wolf in sheep's skin or, if you like, a bull in bear's skin. The name of the game is to mislead the public and induce it to give up monetary metals for a pottage of lentils. I am not putting this forth as a thesis. It can never be proved or disproved. It is merely a hypothesis more plausible than the one suggesting that the shorts are as stupid as they are suicidal.

Ted Butler believes that mountains of surplus silver, remnants of silver demonetization six score years and fifteen ago, that were still around in 1945, have long since been dissipated and "consumed". Of course, the shorts welcome such beliefs and help foster them by all means. Aided by this myth they accumulate still more silver by fleecing the naive and overconfident longs who are cocksure that they are facing naked shorts in the pit. Meanwhile the watchdog agencies know that physical silver exists and can be delivered if necessary. One should not be so sardonic as to think that he was the only one to discover that silver was dirt cheap at $3. The "wolf pack" has also discovered it and started accumulating, albeit very, very quietly. Theirs is quite different from Butler's "buy and sit" strategy. They are not waiting for the miracle of silver in four digits to happen. They do something in order to start drawing benefits from their investment immediately. From their vantage point the longer the price rise is stretched out, the better. Why? Because they know something that Butler apparently doesn't: how to make silver yield an income provided that you can hide it under a bushel.

There is no need to cry "foul play". It will do nicely if you credit the shorts with more wits than you assign to the longs.

Short covering and profit taking

Granted that the shorts are bluffing to tease, taunt, and bait the bulls, it is clear that at one point short selling must become counter-productive. Large bait tickles small fish. When it does, the shorts pull in their nets. They cover. But the fact stands out that it is they, the shorts who call the shots even though their paper losses appear to be staggering, not the longs. Unknown to the public, these losses are far surpassed by gains on physical gold that the shorts have been amassing clandestinely at the expense of the longs for half a century. When the shorts pull the plug and cover their position, the longs are jubilant amidst cries of "cornered rats". Yet all the longs can show for their effort is paper gold, while the shorts control an increasing slice of physical pie. The price of paper gold is destined to go to zero; that of physical to infinity. Who is fooling whom?

The shorts realize that in any bull market there is bound to be periodic profit-taking. They don't have to induce one. It will happen on its own accord. It is spontaneous and unpredictable. While it scares the daylight out of the longs; it is picnic for the shorts. It provides a reliable steady income for them, one that the longs sorely miss. Moreover, the shorts tend to sell into strength and buy into weakness. This is their strength. The longs typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. This is their weakness.

Backwardation and basis

Instead of the COT reports Butler should concentrate on such direct indicators as backwardation and basis. Backwardation is the market phenomenon whereby nearby futures are selling at a premium over the more distant. The normal condition for monetary metals is the opposite, contango, indicating that supply is plentiful. Backwardation in monetary metals is a foolproof indicator that supplies are getting tight. Basis is the name for the spread between the nearby futures price and the spot price. Its shrinking reveals that short selling is becoming counter-productive so that the shorts may be getting ready to cover. Conversely, the widening of the basis tells you that shortages may soon end the shorts are likely to start selling once more. Butler will write a hundred pages about the COT reports while writing half a sentence about backwardation. As far as I can tell, he has never written even a quarter of a sentence about the basis, in spite of a challenge I issued to him privately two years ago. Perhaps he has never got around to take a refresher course, so busy he was poring over reams of COT reports. Be that as it may, the basis is a most sensitive market indicator. When negative, it is a red-hot alarm indicating that offers to sell gold are drying up fast, and may be withdrawn at any time. Please don't take me wrong. I am not against studying COT reports. All information is useful if you know how to interpret it intelligently. But it is not a very intelligent construction to put on the COT reports to assume that the bulk of the short position of the big commercials is naked.

Having said this, I must credit Butler for advocating the ownership of metal fully paid for as against futures positions or ownership of unallocated metal in public warehouses. He also admits the possibility that the "wolf-pack" may engineer another sell-off even after having suffered horrendous paper losses during the latest run-up of the price.

Can depression be averted?

Where does all this leave us? The short-covering and profit-taking charade will continue, possibly for several years to come. There will be no disorderly cut-and-run by the shorts and no meteoric rise in the price. Spectacular rises, yes. But they will be followed by equally spectacular and sometimes protracted corrections testing the stamina, staying power, and intestinal fortitude of the longs. Volatility will increase faster than the moving averages. Exchange rules may be changed unilaterally favoring the shorts, prejudicial to the longs.

Obituaries of the dollar are a bit premature. We cannot rule out the possibility that policy-makers favor a controlled devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold. By now they must realize that bilateral devaluations against selected currencies will never work. They would provoke trade wars and competitive currency devaluations. By contrast, a 1979-80 style devaluation of all currencies against gold should be acceptable to all governments, even though the outcome would be the same. The dollar would be devalued against other currencies at various rates, higher for the yen, less for the euro, and least for the renminbi. The trading partners of the U.S. would tolerate that without retaliating with discriminating tariffs and quotas.

You see, my position is close to your own. Yes, as you say, there is an iceberg of gold and silver which is unseen that never enters the market. Yes, the watchdog agencies know this (as well as the identity of the principals of the short sellers who fool the market in posing and parading naked while in full armor, in a reversal of Andersen's amusing tale) but they are sworn to secrecy. And yes, it is not impossible that this bull market in gold is stage-produced in order to devalue all currencies deliberately without the policy-makers making a scape-goat of themselves. The purpose of the exercise? Why, it is to get rid of the debt-incubus short of deflation, defaults, and depression. Come to think of it, a measured devaluation of all currencies against gold is the only hope to avoid an enormously destructive and protracted depression of the world economy that would be triggered by the sudden toppling of the Debt Tower of Babel. A planned melt-down, well-entombed inside of a golden sarcophagus, is the preferred way to go.

What if I am wrong and policy-makers are getting more band-aid out of the medicine cabinet to patch up the disintegrating international monetary system? In that case may God help us survive the coming Armageddon.

Yours,
A. E. F.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5101.htm

....oooops - das muss man glaub ich wirklich richtig durchlesen :schwitz

mama mia

05.05.2006, 09:56

...tja - Physisches scheint das Wahre zu sein - zu diesem Schluss kommen letztlich viele, wenn auch auch aus unterschiedlichen Gründen ;)

mama mia

05.05.2006, 16:02

Gold Reaches New 25-Year High in London
05.05.2006, 08:33 AM

Gold rose Friday to a new 25-year high in London, buoyed by strong oil prices and tensions between Iran and the West. The dollar rose against other major currencies.

Gold rose to $681.70 at midday in London, up from $673.35 late Thursday and above its previous 25-year high of $675.25 reached early Wednesday. Dealers said speculation by investors was keeping the price of the metal high.

In Zurich, gold traded at $672.05, down from $673.85 late Thursday. Hong Kong's financial markets were closed Friday for a public holiday.

Meanwhile in currency trading, the euro fell to $1.2695 from $1.2715 late Thursday in New York.

Other dollar rates compared with late rates Thursday included: 113.84 Japanese yen, up from 113.38; 1.2293 Swiss francs, up from 1.2256, and 1.1094 Canadian dollars, up from 1.1067.

The British pound traded at $1.8499, down from $1.8542.

Silver opened at $13.90 in London, unchanged from late Thursday.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2006/05/05/ap2723712.html

mama mia

05.05.2006, 16:04

http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/attachment.php3?attachmentid=35539&stc=1

:rolleyes

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=914610#post914610)

:verbeug

mama mia

06.05.2006, 01:01

Gold Bull Stage Two 3

Adam Hamilton
Archives (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm?321gold)
May 5, 2006

2006 has been a banner year for gold, with the Ancient Metal of Kings powering from $515 to over $650 in just the first four months of this year. This particular mighty gold upleg, since its humble beginnings in early June, is up an unbelievable 60%! It utterly dwarfs all uplegs that came before it in this bull.

As a long-time gold and gold-stock investor and speculator, I have been diligently studying this gold bull since it arose from its own ashes in the $250s back in late 2000 and early 2001. Five years ago this week, gold was trading at $265ish and deflationary predictions of sub-$200 gold abounded. Back then only a radical fringe believed a global commodities super bull (http://www.zealllc.com/2001/commbull.htm) was being born.

With gold now up 160% since its April 2001 multi-decade low, this bull is off to a great start. There have been many ups and downs over the past five years, spectacular uplegs and brutal corrections, but on balance gold kept marching resolutely higher despite the naysayers. And as in any bull market, the true students of this gold bull have been blessed with the greatest financial rewards by far from trading it.

As I continue to try and wrap my mind around this awesome bull in order to better understand the probabilities governing its likely future behavior, lately I've been pondering one particular facet of gold bull research. This thread has to do with the major stages through which great secular bulls often evolve.

Great gold bulls generally have three stages. While I wrote an essay (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/au3stage.htm) on this a couple years ago, here is the short version. In Stage One, gold's modest gains are driven primarily by the devaluation of the dominant global currency of the time. In our current bull, most of the gains in gold up until last summer were attributable to the parallel secular bear unfolding in the US dollar (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/usdbear3.htm).

But about a third of the way into a great gold bull, anywhere from several to five years in, a critical transition into Stage Two occurs. In Stage Two gold starts rising simultaneously in all currencies (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/glogold2.htm). Global investment demand for gold becomes large enough to push it up regardless of action in national fiat currencies. Stage Two is a self-feeding process, the higher investors drive gold the more alluring it becomes to investors.

Eventually, probably in the last couple years of a secular gold bull, prices will have been driven so high by investors in the preceding years that a popular mania erupts. When the financial media becomes all-gold-all-the-time and normal mainstream investors across the world cannot stop discussing how rich gold is making them, a mania has arrived. This final buying by everyone drives a vertical parabola into a breathtaking secular top. But once all mainstreamers are heavily long gold there are no buyers left so its great bull ends.

In this idealized chronology, we are now in the transition between Stage One and Stage Two. Euro gold bursting above (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/eg350.htm) its long-vexing ¤350 resistance last June was the catalyst that announced this transition was beginning. Since then there have been many more signs, ranging from gold rising in all major global currencies simultaneously to its once ironclad strong inverse correlation with the US dollar being annulled.

Since we are almost a year into this transition now, the amount of data students of the markets can study is growing. As I discussed in my previous essays (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/goldtwo2.htm) on Stage Two of this gold bull, these great transitions are not binary events that happen instantly like a switch being thrown. Rather they are gradual and analog, arriving slowly over many months where behavior from both stages is mixed up and episodic, all jumbled together.

I suspect the reason these transitions do take a long time is due to intellectual inertia among traders. For the past five years in Stage One gold strength was virtually totally dependent on dollar weakness. The most successful trading theories were based on this strong inverse link (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/rdollar3.htm) between these two currencies. With gold now transitioning into Stage Two, world investment demand has dethroned the dollar bear as gold's primary driver, yet many traders still believe the dollar bear is the key to gold.

And since it is ultimately trades that move any market, traders' beliefs are very important in driving price trends. If traders believe that gold needs to rise when the dollar falls or vice versa and they back these beliefs with real-world trades, to some extent their beliefs will become reality. A price is ultimately the product of countless individual trading decisions and is shaped over the short term by whatever motivates these trades.

This Gold Bull Stage Two thread of research is intriguing me again because gold, especially in the last couple months, has reverted into a kind of hybrid Stage One trading behavior. It is once again strongly inversely correlated with the US dollar but it is moving at a far greater amplitude than the dollar. Strategically this is no big deal as the transitions are supposed to have mixed behavior, but tactically there are definitely some implications worth considering.

While this first euro gold chart isn't as important for what I want to discuss today as it was in my previous two essays to announce the beginning of the transition, I went ahead and updated it anyway for continuity's sake. It does illustrate just how potent this early Stage Two has been in boosting gold in major non-dollar currencies and driving new investor interest worldwide.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton050506/Zeal050506A.gif Early last year, euro gold was in a tight modest uptrend and really not doing anything too exciting. Meanwhile dollar gold was fairly volatile, correcting sharply into 2005 and then consolidating in the first half of the year. The interesting thing is that despite the sometimes wild gyrations of dollar gold, euro gold was pretty flat. Why? The dollar's own gyrations were offsetting gold's nearly one-for-one in the opposite direction at the time.

Thus in Stage One gold looked relatively flat and boring to virtually everyone but Americans. Sure, gold was up substantially in dollars but dollars were down substantially in pretty much all other non-pegged currencies so it was a wash. But as Stage Two started transitioning in, once euro gold decisively broke ¤350, all of a sudden gold became interesting to investors outside of the dollar world.

Since then euro gold has soared beyond my wildest expectations for such a short period of time encompassing less than a year. Year over year as of this week, euro gold is up a dazzling 59%! This has been particularly fun for me as an analyst since I no longer have to spend time, as I did in the past years (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/eurogold.htm), convincing Europeans and other global investors that this gold bull is the real deal and not just a dollar bear.

On a pure technical sidenote, it is interesting that euro gold is once again near its major resistance. Since late last year it has failed in several upside breakout attempts. Will this time be different or will euro gold once again retreat to its support near its 50dma? Only time will tell, but technical probabilities definitely favor a euro gold retreat in the coming weeks rather than a euro gold break out. All bulls flow and ebb.

This next chart does a better job of illustrating how extraordinary gold's Stage Two transition has been so far relative to the dollar. Gold's 20-trading-day return is plotted over the dollar's. Why 20 days? This is about one trading month, a period of time long enough to help capture major surges yet short enough to offer crucial technical detail. The yellow line is the gold/dollar ratio, when it is rising gold is outperforming the dollar and vice versa.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton050506/Zeal050506B.gif Six months ago when I wrote my last essay (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/goldtwo2.htm) in this series, big monthly gold moves might see a 6% to 8% month-over-month gain before collapsing into a correction. This latest gold upleg has been so unbelievably powerful though that it is totally resetting the standards. Gold was up about 13% month over month in both December and January and 15% in April! Stepping back a little and contemplating, these numbers are staggering.

Unfortunately it is impossible for anything, let alone a global market as big as gold, to sustain 12%+ monthly growth rates. Why? In order to drive prices sharply higher, ever more capital has to bid on an asset. But the bigger the market grows, the exponentially larger the amount of new capital that is necessary to keep it rocketing higher at a similar rapid rate. Assuming 145,000 tonnes of gold in circulation worldwide, this market is worth a breathtaking $2.5t at $650!

While a $25m junior miner may be able to grow at 12% monthly for a fairly long period of time, there is absolutely no way a $2,500,000m global commodity/currency market can pull it off on a sustained basis!

The pure mathematics of a 12%+ monthly growth rate offer another perspective on the absurdity of sustaining these phenomenal levels of growth without sharp corrections. Remember the Rule of 72? In rough terms, if you want to learn how long it will take your investments to double at a certain return you divide 72 by that return. 72 divided by 12% monthly equals 6 months. So if 12% monthly returns are sustained gold will double in six months, quadruple in a year, and be sixteen times higher by May 2008! It's not going to happen though, as this would yield $10,400 per ounce!

Now I am heavily invested in gold and gold stocks and consider myself a raging bull. For years I have been writing about the high potential for $5000+ gold (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/golddefy.htm) at the ultimate climax of this gold bull when its Stage Three popular mania matures. In fact in real terms, gold's 1980 Stage Three climax was the equivalent of about $2200 (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/cpigold.htm) in today's devalued dollars. But to hit a Stage Three parabolic blowoff takes at least a decade, it is not something we will see this early in a gold bull.

Yet if gold's stellar 12%+ monthly performance over recent months is sustained, it will already be trading at $2600 by next summer, well over the January 1980 spike high in real terms. This is just not logical so early in a secular bull. These bulls last for over a decade because that is how long it takes for global supplies to gradually be grown to meet global demand. Building new mines is a long, slow process that cannot be rushed.

So please realize that gold's early Stage Two behavior, while awesomely exciting, is an anomaly even within a powerful bull. Sustained double-digit monthly appreciation rates rapidly become mathematically absurd. All bulls flow and ebb, and gold's is no exception. Just like today, at every previous major interim high the majority of gold enthusiasts saw no correction coming yet it always came (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/rdollar3.htm) anyway. Gold is overbought once again.

While gold's average monthly returns will mean revert over time to a reasonable average even while its bull continues to climb on balance, believe it or not this isn't what is capturing my attention today. Near the bottom of this chart there are numbers and percentages. These numbers are two-calendar-month correlations between gold and the dollar while the percentages express the r-square values of these correlations.

In Stage One gold and the dollar were strongly negatively correlated. Check out the inverted blue and red mirror images of gold and dollar returns from January to May 2005. In March and April that year, gold and the dollar had a strong -0.90 negative correlation. Thus 80% of the daily moves in gold could be explainable and predictable by daily moves in the dollar and vice versa. This is quintessential Stage One behavior.

Then in late May 2005, this correlation started meandering all over the map as gold decoupled from the dollar's Stage One dominance in its transition into Stage Two. In September and October these competing currencies had a strong positive correlation, and by November and December they were not correlated at all. During this two-month period only 3% of gold's daily price action could be explainable by the dollar's.

This is exactly what I expected to see in the transition and ultimately Stage Two. Global investment demand for gold should push it around totally independently of the fortunes of the US dollar. This will lead to radically shifting correlations. Sometimes gold and dollar demand will sync up driving a temporary positive correlation. At other times one will fall while the other rises, leading to the traditional negative correlation. And at still other times they will move totally independently creating no meaningful correlation whatsoever.

Over the last two calendar months, March and April, gold and the dollar have once again been trading in opposition. They had a strong negative correlation yielding an r-square of 78%. This is really interesting as it is pure Stage One behavior. Once again seeing periodic episodes of Stage-One-like behavior should be expected and is nothing to be concerned about within the scope of an entire bull, but Stage One reversions near potential interim highs definitely do have tactical trading implications.

For example, if gold traders are now in the mood to trade in opposition to the dollar, which is fine, will they continue their bias if the dollar enters one of its periodic sharp bear-market rallies? If the majority of traders think since gold is rising while the dollar is falling then gold ought to fall when the dollar rises, what happens when the dollar turns north? Obviously if this bias continues gold will be sold off on a dollar rally.

Over the last couple years, the dollar has never had a month-over-month return lower than -4% until today. While this may or may not remain a natural bounce point for the dollar, it is certainly interesting to consider. If traders start perceiving the dollar as temporarily oversold and drive a rally here, and the gold traders have been conditioned over the last couple months to expect an inverse relationship, then gold will be sold.

Another interesting point to ponder is even though gold has been trading in opposition to the dollar lately, the raw amplitude of its month-over-month gains is far greater than the dollar's losses. While the dollar is off about 4%, gold is up about 13% in the last 20 trading days. Global gold investors should be able to drive more enthusiasm and capital for their passion than dollar bears, so this magnitude disconnect should probably not be unexpected. In addition bulls have unlimited upside potential while bears can only fall towards zero. But the behavior of the gold investors is a wildcard.

If the dollar rallies, gold may be so strong that it will not correct proportionately to this rally. If investors hold most of the gold and refuse to sell on weakness, this will be the case. But if gold's recent amplitude levels relative to the dollar remain the same and the dollar rallies, then gold could correct by a much greater percentage than the dollar might rise. If pure speculators trading gold futures sell hard, this latter scenario could certainly unfold.

While I sure don't know what is going to happen tactically in the months immediately ahead, I think it is important for gold traders to be aware that we are now going through a Stage-One-like episode in the transition. Depending on how much traders are paying attention to this, their biases could lead to a gold selloff on any meaningful dollar rally. So at least be cautious if you are long gold in pure speculations.

Our final chart examines this phenomenon from a different perspective. When gold and the dollar are divided by their respective 200-day moving averages and plotted, their relative performance (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/relativity.htm) becomes readily apparent. Conceptually think of this chart as both 200dmas flattened along the 1.00 line and then gold and the dollar expressed as constant multiples of their own 200dmas over time. The stages and transition are really easy to see in this unique presentation.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton050506/Zeal050506C.gif Early last year rGold and the rDollar were carving mirror-image patterns on the opposite sides of their respective 200dmas as they had been doing for years during Stage One. But starting in last June or so, gold stopped simply mirroring the dollar's relative pattern. The euro gold ¤350 breakout drove new global investment demand which was powerful enough to cause gold to start decoupling from the dollar. By late last year gold was climbing strongly in an independent fashion in the early months of Stage Two.

If gold had remained in Stage One, the dotted blue line shows its probable path relative to its 200dma. The distance between the solid blue actual rGold line and this dotted blue hypothetical Stage One line reveals the degree of gold's gains that have happened outside of the dollar. They have really been quite impressive. Stage Two is here and it is very real and gold investors are already earning awesome profits betting on the acceleration of global investment demand.

This being said, a couple of factors combine in this chart to create short-term concerns for gold speculators. First, gold's amazing surge since mid-March coincided exactly with a steepening slide in the US dollar index. Thus gold's entire run from $540 to today's levels was undergirded by this dollar slide, which is definitely making an impression on gold traders. If the dollar rallies and gold is sold off in sympathy, gold's correction could be pretty steep given the enormous gains it has racked up in just the last six weeks or so.

This Stage-One-like behavior is even more ominous considering gold's incredibly optimistic technicals. This week gold stretched an unbelievable 1.305x above its 200dma! Prior to this upleg the highest rGold levels we had seen in this bull to date were merely 1.184x back in early 2003 (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/rdollar3.htm) leading into Washington's invasion of Iraq. Such overbought extremes are even rare in modern history, only occurring a half-dozen times ever, including the famous blow-off top in 1980. The last time gold extended this far over its 200dma was actually back in 1982 (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/rgold.htm)!

So now we see gold transitioning into Stage Two, but at the moment trapped in a Stage-One-like trading pattern moving in strong opposition to the dollar. On top of this gold's monthly returns of late have been so enormous that they are not mathematically sustainable. They have driven gold to stretch to its highest levels above its key 200dma in nearly a quarter century! With gold looking very overbought technically and trading in opposition to the dollar, what will happen when the dollar inevitably bounces into a bear-market rally?

As a mere mortal I cannot see the future, but I suspect gold will be sold. The big question in my mind is whether gold's huge amplitude of swings relative to the dollar will continue. If it does gold could fall sharply, which is probable if short-term speculators have the upper hand. If this amplitude doesn't hold to the downside though, if long-term investors are dominating, then gold's correction on a dollar rally may be mild.

Either way, corrections in secular bulls are totally normal and healthy, and they are good for both investors and speculators. They bleed off excessively bullish sentiment and lay the foundations for the next powerful upleg. They also provide the best buying opportunities that we ever see in secular bulls. Investors can add to their long-term positions at relatively cheap levels and speculators can load up on high-leverage trades for the next upleg.

At Zeal we are locked and loaded and good to go for such a correction. We have been researching elite gold stocks extensively for years now and have many trades lined up once probabilities are highly in our favor for throwing long again in a big way. Today we list around twenty high-potential-for-success gold stocks in our Watch List in our monthly newsletter (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm). Please subscribe today (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm) so you are armed with the cutting-edge research and elite stocks to look into buying once gold again becomes temporarily oversold.

The bottom line is gold's transition into Stage Two is proceeding nicely. Gold's uplegs and gains are getting bigger and better than anything we saw in Stage One. Its behavior is also becoming more and more independent of the dollar on balance, with episodes of strong positive correlations, strong negative correlations, and no correlations all intermixed over time.

But today we are now sojourning in one of those Stage-One-like negative-correlation episodes. This, coupled with very overextended gold technicals, may lead to a major correction in gold if the dollar enters one of its periodic bear rallies. So please be careful here and keep plenty of powder dry to buy the resulting bargains.

Adam Hamilton, CPA

May 5, 2006

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton050506.html

mama mia

06.05.2006, 08:54

http://www.dailymarketsummary.com/images/DailyMarketSummaryHeader.gif
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http://www.dailymarketsummary.com/images/HorizontalLine.gif
May 5, 2006
Fewer Jobs Means Time For Bulls To Boogie On Down To Fed-Pause Town

The base metals were higher once again, with mighty copper rising up another percent to a new high.

Gold opened up about $4 this morning in the US and then exploded another $6 on the back of the payroll data to as high as $687. From there, the metal finally took a breather and fell back to as low as $677, although it never went red, which is pretty amazing after 6 straight days of rallying. That pullback set the low for the day, and the metal spent the remainder of the session climbing back to its earlier highs to go out just off the best levels of the session and at a new multiyear high, up $7.80 to $684.30. Silver was all over the place once again but finished up half a percent.

The HUI fell a percent, which is somewhat bearish on a very short-term basis given the metal’s rally today. Again, odds are (given how overbought the metal is and the fact that it has been up 6 days in a row) that gold is going to have some sort of pullback soon. But I doubt the shares will come in that much. And when they don’t, I suspect those who have been waiting to buy a pullback are going to be forced to pay up for the shares. Keep in mind that many long-time gold bulls sold out of their shares as long ago as December and have been waiting for a big decline to get back in. That big collapse still hasn’t come yet. At some point, these bulls will likely feel the panic to get back in or be left behind (more on this below).

As for the juniors today, they were a mixed bag. GSS, NSU, and MRB both fell a percent, while MFN rose over 2 percent, and CGR rose 14 percent to a new high after reporting some positive drill results.

If we get a dip next week on or around the FOMC in the metal and the gold shares, I am considering buying a large call position on a handful of the gold shares into that dip (for those that care).

As I’ve said, the current period reminds me a lot of December. The shares began struggling a little in early December despite an acceleration in the rally of the metal. When the metal finally pulled back, we only saw a very shallow pullback in the HUI (only 11 points) despite gold falling nearly $50 from $544 to $492 (see the chart of the HUI and gold run over each other here (http://www.dailymarketsummary.com/marketcharts15.asp)).

I tend to think the next pullback in the HUI (wherever and whenever gold finally does actually have a pullback, and it will) is likely to be equally as shallow, and I want to be aggressively positioned for the next leg up in the shares given their huge undervaluations relative to gold at present. Like back in December, the shares should surge enormously once everyone sees that they are not going to get the big buying opportunity that they want. That’s not a recommendation for others to necessarily follow me on that trade, there’s obviously no guarantee that I will be exactly right about timing. But I’ll try and mention it here if and when I do decide to take any action for those that care.

As expected, stocks partied on the back of a Fed-friendly payroll number today. I’m not sure what else there is to say other than to point out the irony of it all. Just as the bulls are getting more and more excited about reliving 1995’s Fed pause rally, the financial environment is turning more and more dicey and more and more unlike 1995. Confidence in a rookie Fed chairman is low, gold is soaring, and the dollar and bond markets are beginning to feed off of each other’s weakness for the first time in nearly 20 years.

When was the last time we saw this sort of action? It certainly wasn’t 1995. No, it was the summer of 1987, back when Uncle Al was the rookie Fed chairman. Only this time, we also have a housing bubble, which means the real economy is going to suffer as long-term rates rise, not just the financial markets, as was the case in 1987.

This is all going to end in a giant train wreck. I’m certain of that much, but the bulls have to exhaust themselves first. And we’re not there yet obviously. I’m still braced for some sort of upside blowoff to begin soon in stocks if the Fed indicates a pause is coming next week, or something potentially even more explosive if the FOMC skips the May hike and pauses now. That’s just the whacky environment we’re in.

The continued excessive liquidity that is sloshing around and the madness of crowds all make the current environment a virtual tinderbox for one final celebration to the upside in stocks. But again, that same inflationary tinderbox is even more explosive for gold and its shares. Let’s review the YTD numbers on the HUI and the SPX once again. The SPX is up 6.2 percent, and the HUI is up 37 percent. But remember, there’s no inflation according to the Fed (wink, wink…).

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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

Mr. Lewis is the president of Lewis Capital, which manages a hedge fund in Dallas, Texas. This fund regularly buys, sells, or holds securities that are the subject of his columns, or options with respect to those securities, and regularly holds positions in such securities or options as of the date those columns are published. The views and opinions expressed in Mr. Lewis' columns are not intended to constitute a description of the securities bought, sold, or held by the fund. The views and opinions expressed in Mr. Lewis' columns are also not an indication of any intention to buy, sell, or hold any security on behalf of the fund, and investment decisions made on behalf of the fund may change at any time and for any reason. Mr. Lewis' columns are not intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

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Copyright © 2002-2006 Lewis Capital, Inc. All rights reserved.

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=915000#post915000)

:verbeug

mama mia

06.05.2006, 09:50

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/48403_Sinclair12.jpg

Dear CIGAs,

Gold having traded this morning above $682 is bringing in some selling into gold shares exactly as it did when we first touched $612.

This is in a way a compliment to this site, but possibly an error in judgment by the position holders.

The reason I say this is twofold:

1. It is not the old gold community that has been responsible for the brisk move from $612 to the present. It is international investment banks whose funds relative to the tiny gold market and smaller gold share market are infinite.

2. The market, although helped by a falling dollar, is truly a product of the shifting dynamic in the political position of Iran and therefore the entire Middle East. All the fundamental damage in the dollar equation can be tracked back to this changing political dynamic and the “follow the money” financial impact it has had on the US while that country enjoys prosperity in all its markets and most of its industries.

There is little chance the Iranian situation, the Iraq situations or US economic policy will make abrupt changes from their present direction. Because of these factors the only selling one should do at $682 gold is to remove any debt you have against your position.

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3558&T_ARID=3630&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=915026#post915026)

mama mia

06.05.2006, 12:49

Would you Like Ketchup With That Hat?

Peter Schiff
May 6, 2006

What a week! Gold prices soared to their highest levels in 26 years, and the dollar collapse verses just about every other currency on the planet. Despite the fanfare, the Dow Jones dropped below 17 ounces of gold, off 18% thus far this year. The break outs in gold and silver and simultaneous break-downs in bonds and the dollar indicate trouble on the horizon.

With the recent launch of Barclays' silver ETF, both physical gold and silver can now be bought by individuals and institutions alike through the mere click of a mouse. As a result investor demand, virtually nonexistent for twenty years, could reemerge with a vengeance. Similar ETFs will likely begin trading on other major exchanges thoughout the world, reintroducing an entire generation to an asset class recently thought as dead as disco. Combine soaring demand with decades of under-investment and exploration by mining companies, central bank divestment and producer hedging, and precious metal's price appreciation could be explosive.

The fact that this bull market has basically proceeded in utter obscurity for six years, with recent price rises causing many to cry "bubble" or "blow-off," provides further evidence of just how much further this bull has to run. As an example, one self-professed metal's expert, who has urged caution since late 2004, was so convinced that silver's recent rise constituted a speculative "blow-off" that he publicly promised to "eat his hat" were that not the case. In addition, in the aftermath of silver's sharp one-day drop he subsequently advised investors to sell declaring that a significant correction in both gold and silver had begun. In retrospect the correction ended before the ink on his quotation marks even had a chance to dry.

As a reminder of just how large bubbles can grow before popping, during the 1990s the NASDQ rose from 300 to 5,000. If the NASDAQ could do it why can't gold? Sure gold does not pay any dividends, but than neither did the NASQAQ. Plus during the entire NASDAQ rally new shares of stock were constantly being issued, either as a result of IPOs, secondary offerings and option grants. However, the growth in the supply of gold and silver will be far more constrained, creating the potential for far greater appreciation.

It seems fitting that on the first day of trading for the silver ETF, shares of Microsoft, once the quintessential "new era" stock, plunged by 11%. Trading as high as $60 per share in December of 1999, Microsoft shares now trade below $24. During that same time period the price of gold has risen from $290 to $680. Imagine if one had survived typical investors on New Year's Eve 1999, asking each to predict which would perform better in the first decade of the new millennium, Microsoft or gold. Do you think even one in one hundred would have chosen gold? How many would choose gold today or even realize the extent of its performance?

For those who feel precious metals are in a bubble now, they ain't seen nothing yet. At the moment prices are merely adjusting to where they should have been all along. For years gold languished in obscurity as investors instead placed their faith in the wisdom, independence, and integrity of central bankers. That misplaced confidence will soon shatter and investors will once again embrace gold, as they discover nothing more than politicians with printing presses lurking behind the curtains.

Make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com.

Download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com.

Subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp.

Peter Schiff
C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
1 800-727-7922
email: pschiff@europac.net
website: www.europac.net
Archives

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff050606.html

mama mia

07.05.2006, 13:06

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Finding Comfort (and New Friends) in Gold

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/05/07/business/gold.span.jpg Alan S. Orling for The New York Times
James E. Sinclair says he loves gold. And with gold prices on the rise, Wall Street is taking notice, too.

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Published: May 7, 2006
Sharon, Conn.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/05/07/business/gold2.190.jpg Norm Betts/Bloomberg News
Gold now trades at more than $680 an ounce. Gold bugs are predicting that the price could soon top $1,000.

IT'S a splendid spring day in Connecticut's horse country and James E. Sinclair, perhaps the best-known gold speculator of his era, is sitting before his trading terminal, contemplating the upward thrust of gold on his trader's chart.

The sun, bursting through the bay windows, catches the glint of gold that is everywhere in Mr. Sinclair's home office: on the coins near his computer, on his chunky Rolex watch, on the rings on three of his fingers, on the cuff links on his monogrammed shirt, and — could it be? — a hint of it in his one working eye.

"I love gold, O.K.?" he said, his voice rising in excitement. "Gold has made me wealthy. It feels nice. It's exchangeable. It's money."

On his television set, which is tuned to CNBC, news breaks of a terrorist attack in Egypt, the price of oil pushes higher and traders continue to sell the dollar, which is approaching a one-year low against the euro.

With gold trading at $683.80 an ounce, a 25-year high, it's a good time to be a gold bug like Mr. Sinclair, especially if, like him, you own a gold exploration company (his is in Tanzania) and were a buyer when the metal sank as low as $250 an ounce in 2001. Now Wall Street, traditionally a laggard when it comes to making the investment case for gold, has jumped on Mr. Sinclair's bandwagon.

Investment banks like J. P. Morgan (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=JPM) and Goldman Sachs (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=GS) are putting out bullish research notes, retail investors are heavy buyers through exchange-traded funds and hedge funds; and the trading desks of investment banks have been piling into the market, especially in the last week.

For Mr. Sinclair, who rode the last bull market in gold to its peak, in 1980, the surging price of his beloved metal is sending out clear signals that take him back to the 1970's, when inflation, a weak dollar and an oil spike driven by turmoil in the Middle East propelled gold to a high of $875 an ounce, or more than $1,800 in current dollars after adjusting for inflation. His ultimate price target now is not far from that: $1,650 an ounce, assuming that things become really bad.

"Gold is a barometer of the common stock of a country, and right now gold is sniffing out weakness in the management of the United States as a business," said Mr. Sinclair, 65, a lifelong Republican who twice voted for President Bush. "Iran is becoming a nuclear power. The chairman of the Federal Reserve is on a puppet string controlled by the White House, and there is no such thing as a strong-dollar policy when the dollar is heading south."

For more than two decades, the apocalyptic lament of Mr. Sinclair and other gold bugs has been largely dismissed as the United States has experienced — aside from a few hiccups — a 25-year bull market in a range of assets, from stocks and bonds to real estate and art.

Sustained by a continuing flood of liquidity, these assets have continued their mighty climb, even as crucial gauges of economic health in the United States — the budget and current account deficits — have continued to worsen. But now, with gold making a run for $700, dedicated gold investors are getting a wider hearing.

THEIR passion notwithstanding, gold bugs tend to be small-time investors. Gold's recent surge has instead been underpinned by a rush of mainstream investors, including hedge funds, commodity-based mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

For these investors, gold is less a way of life than it is hedge against inflation and a prudent measure of diversification during an increasingly worrisome time. The extent to which this new wave of capital remains invested in gold will determine if the recent spike is just another anomaly or the onset of the second coming of the great gold bull market that the true believers have been calling for since the price of gold crashed a quarter-century ago.

Of course, many investors say that given gold's sharp recent climb, a correction would not be surprising. It's another asset bubble, they say, the latest investment fad. But for Mr. Sinclair and a small clutch of other self-exiled Wall Streeters, the metal's recent climb is just deserts for their unwavering, if not mystical, devotion to gold as an investment, an adornment, a means of exchange and, more than anything else, a moral bulwark in a corrupting sea of paper money, credit and what they see as insidious financial instruments.

Mr. Sinclair, who in the 1970's ran his own trading firm, achieved his renown by selling 900,000 ounces of gold at an average price 0f $810 in early 1980. That was when the metal was capping a decade-long bull market that commenced in 1971, when President Richard M. Nixon (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/n/richard_milhous_nixon/index.html?inline=nyt-per) severed once and for all the dollar's link to gold.

(Page 2 of 3)

In addition to selling his hoard, Mr. Sinclair sold his trading business, took his total net gain of $18 million and retreated here to the Connecticut countryside where he built his own private Shangri-La. It is indeed, as Mr. Sinclair likes to call it, "the house that gold built."

On the outskirts of Sharon, a village at the foot of the Berkshires, the sprawling 38-acre estate includes an indoor swimming pool and pistol range, horse stables and a specially equipped garage that once housed his collection of racing cars. It's a lot of property for a solitary man — his wife of 40 years died in a car crash in India two years ago. Now, he uses his Web site (jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/)), books, DVD lectures and cartoons that he commissions to proselytize about the virtues of gold and the depredations of central bankers.

"This will be my last great ride," he said of the current spike in gold prices. "Everybody loves to be right."

In Spain, they call the obsession of some people to dig large holes in the ground to search for the elusive ounce of gold "mal de piedra," or the sickness of rocks — one way, perhaps, to describe the condition that affects Mr. Sinclair and his coterie of gold investors.

With their missionary zeal and weakness for conspiracy theories, gold lovers can seem a touch afflicted. They also collect and pass around offbeat, brain-teasing findings. One is that the dollar has lost 98 percent of its value since 1913, when the Federal Reserve System (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/f/federal_reserve_system/index.html?inline=nyt-org) was established. Another is an assertion by the American Institute for Economic Research, an obscure research outfit in Great Barrington, Mass., that since 1945, inflation has eroded $15.8 trillion from the savings accounts of United States citizens.

Both findings underscore their benchmark precept: that a currency not tied to gold becomes debased when central banks print money and governments spend freely. Perhaps Alan Greenspan (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/alan_greenspan/index.html?inline=nyt-per), who before his run as chairman of the Federal Reserve was highly regarded in gold-bug circles, captured this point best. "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation," he wrote in 1966, when he was an economic consultant. "Gold stands in the way of this insidious process."

The great liquidity explosion that occurred under Mr. Greenspan has made him a turncoat in the eyes of the gold-bug crowd. But his successor, Ben S. Bernanke (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/ben_s_bernanke/index.html?inline=nyt-per), or "Helicopter Ben" as they call him, inflames its passions all the more. To this group, Mr. Bernanke's passing allusion — before he became Fed chairman — to a helicopter dropping money over a recession-bound economy confirmed its deepest fears that a monetary system not anchored by gold was essentially inflationary if not downright immoral.

All the same, most mainstream economists accept that a return to the gold standard and its restrictive covenants would be not only unfeasible but also deflationary. Gold bugs may cry, and be correct, about the creeping impact of inflation, but it is also true that the same climb in prices, aided by the great liquidity boom, has made some of them millionaires, as houses they bought for less than $100,000 in the 1960's are now worth millions.

Like Mr. Sinclair, William J. Murphy III is also a Wall Street refugee. After a one-year stint in 1968 as a wide receiver for the New England Patriots, he began a career as a commodities trader, working for a number of firms, including Shearson and Drexel Burnham. Convinced that the price of gold was being suppressed by an unholy alliance between the central banks and major investment banks, he formed the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, known as GATA, that seeks to publicize facts and assertions that support his point, namely that the gold reserves in central banks are significantly overstated.

GATA for the most part is a one-man show — Mr. Murphy, dressed in his sweatsuit, perched in front of the computer in his home in suburban Dallas. With his excitable manner and his outré theories about gold, he is generally thought to exist on the outer fringe of the gold-bug movement.

Indeed, his central thesis — that Goldman Sachs and other banks have conspired to keep a cap on the price via short sales to back the government's strong-dollar policy, especially while a former Goldman senior partner, Robert E. Rubin (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/robert_e_rubin/index.html?inline=nyt-per), was Treasury secretary in the late 1990's — is far-fetched.

With the price of gold surging, Mr. Murphy is convinced that Goldman Sachs, J. P. Morgan and others are frantically buying now to cover for the gold they sold short over the years. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan declined to comment about their gold trading positions or strategies.

"What a day," Mr. Murphy said one day last week as gold broke through $670. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan were big buyers that day on Comex, the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange where gold contracts trade. Sputtering at the joy of it all, Mr. Murphy could well have been a prospector hitting the Mother Lode. "These guys are short, and they are panicking to get out of their positions," he said. "They are sweating bullets, and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys."

There is a kernel of truth to what Mr. Murphy says. Central banks have been aggressive sellers of gold, especially in the late 1990's, when gold was touching record lows. But most economists say that there was no grand design involved, just a badly timed attempt to shift into higher-yielding assets like bonds.

(Page 3 of 3)

As for investment banks, they are sellers and buyers of any given asset at any given time. But it is also true that they have hardly been enthusiastic advocates for gold as an investment, especially when the stock market was king. Even now, as they have issued positive reports about the metal, their price targets seem oddly out of sync with its relentless rise.

Goldman's forecast for a year-end price is $625 an ounce; J. P. Morgan's target, which is currently under review, is $560, and Morgan Stanley's (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=MWD) is $550.

Compared with Mr. Murphy and his boylike excitability, James Turk speaks with an assured gravity consistent with his background as a commercial banker at Chase Manhattan. But his views about gold as the ultimate store of value in a financial world on the verge of collapse are no less doctrinaire.

Indeed, Mr. Turk has established his own online payment system, GoldMoney.com (http://goldmoney.com/), through which he and his fellow gold bugs may enjoy the thrill of buying goods and services via gold, not cash.

IN some ways, it is a symbolic exercise. While the payment system is supported by $100 million worth of gold, no merchants have agreed to take bullion as payment, although Mr. Turk hopes that day may come. More than anything else, the site demonstrates his disdain for the dollar and all other forms of paper money — a view that he often heard from his parents, who experienced the ravages of hyperinflation in Austria in the 1920's.

"It's not gold going up; it's the dollar going down," Mr. Turk said by phone from Australia, where he was speaking at an investment conference. Gold has held its value much better than the dollar against commodities like oil, he said.

With oil hitting new highs — it has hovered around $70 a barrel for weeks — Mr. Turk foresees a return to the 1970's, when high inflation and a volatile Middle East drove gold to its peak. "If we get close to $850 this year, it's most probable that we will see a four-digit gold price in 2007," he said. Four-digit gold — an ounce of bullion selling for $1,000 or more — is the gold bugs' equivalent of a visit from the Messiah.

But for the growing number of hedge funds that are piling into the commodity, gold is less a virtuous investment than it is a mercenary one.

China and India are buying more gold. Iran is becoming more bellicose in its stand toward the West. And, most important, liquidity is making a broad shift to commodities and out of stocks.

"Do I think that gold is God? No," said Monty Guild, who runs Guild Investment Management, a hedge fund in Malibu, Calif. "I'm a gold opportunist. When it's good, we like it; when it's not, we stay away. Gold does well during wars, and we believe there will be more wars."

And for those not in gold, or any other highflying commodity, for that matter, the feeling can be lonely. William H. Miller III, portfolio manager of the $19 billion Legg Mason Value Trust, which has beaten the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index for 15 consecutive years, has no gold in the fund. His view is that inflationary expectations, if not prices themselves, remain quiescent, and that gold — like oil, emerging markets and small-cap stocks before it — has become the latest investment craze, propelled upward by a wave of hot money, a term for speculative short-term capital.

"Gold certainly looks extended from here," said Mr. Miller, whose fund is currently trailing the S.& P. 500 for the year. "It's easy to make money when you are trend-following," he added. "But if you are worried that the end is near, the last thing I want is gold because of all the hot money."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/business/yourmoney/07gold.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3

mama mia

08.05.2006, 08:51

Buffett Sold Silver; NY Times Covers Gold!

Silver Stock Report
May 7th, 2006
by Jason Hommel
This email can be accessed online at:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/buffett_times.html

Today, I received word from about 15 of my subscribers that Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has sold their pile of nearly 130 million ounces silver. Five different news articles tell a similar story, that Warren admits he sold the silver.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B505AA31F%2DEB4D%2D4F1B%2DB532%2D66B44374D2C9%7D
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12665304/
http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=37412326&brk=1
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19497
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/298421.htm

This is very bullish for silver, because it explains why silver's rise took longer than we thought (Warren was selling), and it also means that there is much less silver above ground than we thought. Buffett's hoard of 130 million ounces no longer exists! Clearly, Warren made a mistake, and he seems to admit it when he says that he sold silver too soon. I always suspected that Warren did not understand gold or silver too well.

Buffett emphasized the 'non-productive"(?) aspect of gold in 1998 at Harvard: "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

I answered Buffett's conundrum on gold, why men keep it vaults, in my article, "Refuting Myths about Gold", in 2003. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/hommel102802.html

He must have never read it. It took me about 10 seconds to think up the answer to refute Buffett's myth, numbered 28 in the article (but it took me about 2 years to compile and write the full article):
28. It does not make sense to dig up gold from the ground, and bury it again deep in the ground in a vault:

Yes, it does. Gold is kept in the vault because gold is valuable and rare, and thus, it needs to be protected from theft. You wouldn't want your property to be stolen, would you? Gold ownership also prevents theft from inflation, and from banking collapses during depressions, which happen under paper money systems.

I really feel sorry for Mr. Buffett. He complains he has $40 billion and does not know what to do with it, or how to protect it from inflation. He recently tried buying foreign currency with it, but that does not work either, when all currencies are overvalued frauds. Too bad Mr. Buffett. Buffett's confusion must be due to God himself, or perhaps senility. As the Bible says, "God is not mocked", but perhaps Gold is not to be mocked, either.

Before, I had given Mr. Buffet the benefit of the doubt. I had thought that his line about the uselessness of Gold was clever dis-information, as foolish traders sometimes try to talk down an investment while accumulating. But it appears he is just ignorant about one of the most fundamental aspects about the nature of Gold, after all.

The fundamentals of silver have nothing to do with supply and demand after all. The fundamental nature of silver is that it is different from paper, and paper is no substitute. Gold's use is that it keeps men honest! Gold provides a method for peaceful and non-fraudulent beneficial trade among men.

What is so special about gold? I'll tell you once again, (from silverstockreport.com):

Gold is money because it is liquid because it is easily tradable, with a narrow spread between the prices to buy and sell (about 1%). Also, gold is easily transportable, because it has a high value for its weight. This makes gold an excellent medium of exchange.

Gold is money because it is divisible, you can divide it into coins, or re-melt it into bars, without destroying it. Also, gold is fungible, where each unit of .999 fine gold (99.9% pure) is similar enough to another unit so as to be easily interchangeable. Gold is also nearly impossible to counterfeit, and genuine gold is easily recognizable. When measured by weight, gold is easily countable. These properties make gold an excellent unit of account.

Gold is money because it is a great store of value. Gold is not subject to decay, rot, or rust. Gold has an intrinsic value in itself, because it is rare, highly coveted the world over, and is a luxury item.

Silver has all the same characteristics, except silver is heavier by value, (cheaper per ounce). (Silver is actually less dense, and lighter than gold per unit volume, which prevents counterfeiting coins by plating silver coins with gold). Silver is also more rare than gold, in above-ground, refined, deliverable form. Silver is more useful to industry than is gold, as silver is used in more applications than any other item except, perhaps, oil.

Buffett's problem is a pitfall I've worried that my subscribers would fall into. The danger is selling too soon, due to not knowing why you bought precious metal in the first place. For example, what if you sell gold as gold rises to $3000 per ounce, on its way to $30,000 per ounce? Well, between $300 and $3000, you'd make ten times your money. And then, between $3000 and $30,000, you'd give back all your gains, and be no better off. This is why I've personally risked my reputation, by writing "outlandish" articles about how and why gold can rise to infinity dollar per ounce! (As paper money dies.)

Future Gold & Silver Prices --December 21, 2005
http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/Future_Gold_and_Silver_Prices.html
Why no talk of $32,567/oz ? - 02 January 2003
http://www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Why_no_talk_of_32567_oz_-.html

During the past 7 years, I've closely watched many items that are bullish for gold and silver; most notably, who is covering them, and how good is the coverage. Finally, the New York Times covers gold in a somewhat positive way. This is no time to call a top, just because they are covering gold. (Many old gold bugs believe you should sell gold if the NY Times gives it coverage.) After all, the Times is still at the bottom of the learning curve, in my opinion, and still rather skeptical of the facts about gold, and the nature of gold, somewhat like Mr. Buffett. But the interesting thing about the Times is that many newspapers follow stories that the Times covers, and so, we may see the beginning of greater coverage about gold in the U.S. national press, and we may see gold prices rise substantially as a result.

This article was sent to me in email by several sources. Key excerpts below:

Finding Comfort (and New Friends) in Gold

By Landon Thomas Jr.
The New York Times
Sunday, May 7, 2006

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/business/yourmoney/07gold.html?_r=1&oref=

SHARON, Connecticut -- ...

Their passion notwithstanding, gold bugs tend to be small-time investors. Gold's recent surge has instead been underpinned by a rush of mainstream investors, including hedge funds, commodity-based mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds.

For these investors, gold is less a way of life than it is hedge against inflation and a prudent measure of diversification during an increasingly worrisome time. The extent to which this new wave of capital remains invested in gold will determine if the recent spike is just another anomaly or the onset of the second coming of the great gold bull market that the true believers have been calling for since the price of gold crashed a quarter-century ago.

...

With their missionary zeal and weakness for conspiracy theories, gold lovers can seem a touch afflicted. They also collect and pass around offbeat, brain-teasing findings. One is that the dollar has lost 98 percent of its value since 1913, when the Federal Reserve System was established. Another is an assertion by the American Institute for Economic Research, an obscure research outfit in Great Barrington, Mass., that since 1945 inflation has eroded $15.8 trillion from the savings accounts of United States citizens.

Both findings underscore their benchmark precept: that a currency not tied to gold becomes debased when central banks print money and governments spend freely. Perhaps Alan Greenspan, who before his run as chairman of the Federal Reserve was highly regarded in gold-bug circles, captured this point best. "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation," he wrote in 1966, when he was an economic consultant. "Gold stands in the way of this insidious process."

The great liquidity explosion that occurred under Mr. Greenspan has made him a turncoat in the eyes of the gold-bug crowd. But his successor, Ben. S. Bernanke, or "Helicopter Ben" as they call him, inflames its passions all the more. To this group, Mr. Bernanke's passing allusion -- before he became Fed chairman -- to a helicopter dropping money over a recession-bound economy confirmed its deepest fears that a monetary system not anchored by gold was essentially inflationary if not downright immoral.

...

Like Mr. Sinclair, William J. Murphy III is also a Wall Street refugee. After a one-year stint in 1968 as a wide receiver for the New England Patriots, he began a career as a commodities trader, working for a number of firms, including Shearson and Drexel Burnham. Convinced that the price of gold was being suppressed by an unholy alliance between the central banks and major investment banks, he formed the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, known as GATA, that seeks to publicize facts and assertions that support his point -- namely that the gold reserves in central banks are significantly overstated.

GATA for the most part is a one-man show -- Mr. Murphy, dressed in his sweatsuit, perched in front of the computer in his home in suburban Dallas. With his excitable manner and his outré theories about gold, he is generally thought to exist on the outer fringe of the gold-bug movement.

Indeed, his central thesis -- that Goldman Sachs and other banks have conspired to keep a cap on the price via short sales to back the government's strong-dollar policy, especially while a former Goldman senior partner, Robert E. Rubin, was Treasury secretary in the late 1990s -- is far-fetched.

With the price of gold surging, Mr. Murphy is convinced that Goldman Sachs, J. P. Morgan, and others are frantically buying now to cover for the gold they sold short over the years. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan declined to comment about their gold trading positions or strategies.

"What a day," Mr. Murphy said one day last week as gold broke through $670. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan were big buyers that day on Comex, the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange where gold contracts trade. Sputtering at the joy of it all, Mr. Murphy could well have been a prospector hitting the Mother Lode. "These guys are short, and they are panicking to get out of their positions," he said. "They are sweating bullets, and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys."

There is a kernel of truth to what Mr. Murphy says. Central banks have been aggressive sellers of gold, especially in the late 1990s, when gold was touching record lows. But most economists say that there was no grand design involved, just a badly timed attempt to shift into higher-yielding assets like bonds.

As for investment banks, they are sellers and buyers of any given asset at any given time. But it is also true that they have hardly been enthusiastic advocates for gold as an investment, especially when the stock market was king. Even now, as they have issued positive reports about the metal, their price targets seem oddly out of sync with its relentless rise.

Goldman's forecast for a year-end price is $625 an ounce; J. P. Morgan's target, which is currently under review, is $560, and Morgan Stanley's is $550.

Compared with Mr. Murphy and his boylike excitability, James Turk speaks with an assured gravity consistent with his background as a commercial banker at Chase Manhattan. But his views about gold as the ultimate store of value in a financial world on the verge of collapse are no less doctrinaire.

Indeed, Mr. Turk has established his own online payment system, GoldMoney.com, through which he and his fellow gold bugs may enjoy the thrill of buying goods and services via gold, not cash.

In some ways it is a symbolic exercise. While the payment system is supported by $100 million worth of gold, no merchants have agreed to take bullion as payment, although Mr. Turk hopes that day may come. More than anything else, the site demonstrates his disdain for the dollar and all other forms of paper money -- a view that he often heard from his parents, who experienced the ravages of hyperinflation in Austria in the 1920s.

"It's not gold going up; it's the dollar going down," Mr. Turk said by phone from Australia, where he was speaking at an investment conference. Gold has held its value much better than the dollar against commodities like oil, he said.

With oil hitting new highs -- it has hovered around $70 a barrel for weeks -- Mr. Turk foresees a return to the 1970s, when high inflation and a volatile Middle East drove gold to its peak. "If we get close to $850 this year, it's most probable that we will see a four-digit gold price in 2007," he said. Four-digit gold -- an ounce of bullion selling for $1,000 or more -- is the gold bugs' equivalent of a visit from the Messiah.

But for the growing number of hedge funds that are piling into the commodity, gold is less a virtuous investment than it is a mercenary one.

China and India are buying more gold. Iran is becoming more bellicose in its stand toward the West. And, most important, liquidity is making a broad shift to commodities and out of stocks.

"Do I think that gold is God? No," said Monty Guild, who runs Guild Investment Management, a hedge fund in Malibu, Calif. "I'm a gold opportunist. When it's good, we like it; when it's not, we stay away. Gold does well during wars, and we believe there will be more wars."

And for those not in gold, or any other highflying commodity, for that matter, the feeling can be lonely. William H. Miller III, portfolio manager of the $19 billion Legg Mason Value Trust, which has beaten the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index for 15 consecutive years, has no gold in the fund. His view is that inflationary expectations, if not prices themselves, remain quiescent, and that gold -- like oil, emerging markets, and small-cap stocks before it -- has become the latest investment craze, propelled upward by a wave of hot money, a term for speculative short-term capital.

"Gold certainly looks extended from here," said Mr. Miller, whose fund is currently trailing the S.& P. 500 for the year. "It's easy to make money when you are trend-following," he added. "But if you are worried that the end is near, the last thing I want is gold because of all the hot money."

-END-

Gold is up from "hot money", yes. But Gold IS money! Paper money is the "hot money" by definition--paper money is the hot potato that people have to dump if they want to protect their wealth. But gold is not up because gold is a fad. Gold is up because it's gold's time, because gold is timeless, and because the fad of paper money is ending. Once again, such basic misunderstandings mean we have a long, long way to go.

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
For your financial health:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/ -- promoting God's money, gold & silver
For your spiritual health:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/ -- warning against Satan's money, 666 --The mark of the Beast.

Archive of prior emails:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm

A Brief Guide to Buying Silver:
The kinds of silver, and where to get it.
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm

mama mia

08.05.2006, 08:55

.......Jason Hommel, Editor of “Silver Stock Report” previously told Resource Investor that “we just don’t know” where the silver will come from to back the ETF, and it is possible that Warren Buffett could be the supplier, which isn’t causing a shortage in the market..........

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19497

mama mia

08.05.2006, 09:01

Real estate slows, commodities speculative: Buffett

By Alistair Barr
Last Update: 1:56 PM ET May 6, 2006

OMAHA, Neb. (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. real estate market is clearly slowing, especially in areas that used to be the hottest, while speculation in commodity markets is rife, Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett said Saturday.

.........

Influence on commodity market
Speculation has also begun to drive commodity markets, Buffett warned.
The price of metals, such as copper, and other commodities like oil, initially climbed on fundamentals, but the gains have now attracted more investors betting on further price gains, he explained.
"What the wise man does at the beginning the fool does at the end," Buffett quipped. "Once a price history develops enough for other people to see it and get envious, that takes over markets. We're seeing that some areas of the commodity markets."
The Berkshire (BRKA :88,710.00, +710.00, +0.8% ) (BRKB :2,945.00, +35.00, +1.2% ) chairman also warned that it could end badly, likening commodity markets to Cinderella at the ball.
"At the start of the party, the punch is flowing and everything's going well, but you know at midnight it's all going to turn into pumpkins and mice," he said. "People think they'll be able to get out just before midnight, but everyone else thinks that too."
"The problem is that, in commodities there are no clocks on the wall," he added.
Berkshire mostly avoids commodity speculation because Buffett said he's "not good at the game of figuring out how far the speculative gains will go."
That means Berkshire won't make as much money as other investors who stay on until "the final 30 days or weeks of a wild orgy," he said, recalling a big investment Berkshire made in silver.
Buffett said Berkshire didn't make any money on his silver investment because he "bought it very early and sold it very early. Other than that, everything I did was perfect."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B505AA31F%2DEB4D%2D4F1B%2DB532%2D66B44374D2C9%7D

mama mia

08.05.2006, 22:17

Silber hat sich gut "gemetzget" ;):)

mama mia

09.05.2006, 19:22

Gold hits $700/oz
09/05/2006 18:22 PM

London - Gold prices struck $700 for the first time in 25 and a half years in New York trading as investors ploughed cash into the precious metal amid simmering concerns over the Iranian nuclear crisis.
On the Comex, a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery touched $700.00/oz - the highest level since October 1980.

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/markets/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=markets&ArticleID=1518-21_1929871

mama mia

09.05.2006, 19:41

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini050906/050906_quote.jpg ;)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini050906.html

mama mia

09.05.2006, 19:42

....muss man mal festhalten ;)

mama mia

10.05.2006, 13:03

CHARTWORKS - MAY 8, 2006
Preparation for Next Buying Opportunity in PMs

Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
May 10, 2006

Independent of the geo-political events that are creating underlying volatility and upward pressure in the metals there are also measurable technical events. Technically, we are into a phase of advance that is reminiscent of the precious metals of 1973-74 and 1978-79, the Nikkei of the late 80's and the NASDAQ of the 90's. It is a phase where buying breakouts can work well and overbought conditions can remain in place for extended periods; however the inevitable corrections do occur. The following analysis is meant to assist investors in finding the next lower risk entry opportunities on the long side of the markets.

GOLD

The gold/silver ratio bottomed on April 19th and then moved in favour of gold for three days. The subsequent consolidation produced a divergence in the ratio. Now gold has rallied to new highs and silver to a tested high producing an uptick in the ratio. Typically (see following table) the gold price tops out 8 to 17 weekdays following the initial bottom in the ratio. May 5th was day 12.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/1.gif GSR divergences in bull markets
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/table1.gif
Additionally, on May 2nd gold generated the first daily upside exhaustion alert since January 16th. Previous signals produced corrections to the 20-day average (unless noted). A correction in gold back to the 20-day exponential moving average (currently $636 and rising at $4.50 per day) is likely to produce the next significant buying opportunity.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/table2.gif SILVER

Silver tested and found support at the 34-day exponential moving average on an interday basis on April 21st. This satisfied the normal pattern following upside exhaustion readings. The break also came immediately after the RSI(14) reading over 90, providing a classic 1 to 3 day sharp correction with an RSI(14) reading below 70 as a short term low in price.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/table3.gif http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/2.gif Now that the GSR has established a well defined divergence we can narrow the ensuing silver analysis to the six instances related to those events. There is a consistent relationship between the peak in the Relative Strength Index and the time it takes silver to find an important low. The RSI(14) peaked at 90.78 on April 19th and on that basis it should take six to seven weeks to find a bottom from which a sustainable rally is possible. The week of June 5th looks like an optimum point from which to start the next major rally. (Seasonal pressure should also be out of the way by the end of June, with a positive influence through early October.)

From a pricing perspective, a 100-day simple moving average (currently $10.37 and rising at 5 cents per day) is the next support. The worst case scenario will be a test of the 89-week average (currently $8.37 and rising at 13 cents per week).

Technically, we'll ideally see the break become hard enough to generate a reading below -200 in the CCI(20). If so, then a reversal back above -100 in the oscillator will determine that the bottom is in place and provide a conservative means of entry. Risk can then be controlled 2% below the corresponding low.

Each of the six previous occurrences also generated a Sequential Buy Signal or Buy Setup as the correction was coming to a conclusion.

As another means of corroborating a bottom we should look for the mining stocks to show a bullish bias as the base forms.

With all these parameters established it is now a matter of having patience to see if they can fall into place over the coming weeks. Choppy market action followed by a downside cleanout would be the ideal means of putting the maximum number of investors back on the sidelines, thereby creating the buying force to push the price higher once again.

The Big Picture
( Update )

On a deflated basis the next target of significance for gold is $800+ (point 14). http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/3.gif The key targeted resistance levels for silver are $14, $18 and $27 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006/4.gif -Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com

(http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/)CHARTWORKS - MAY 8, 2006

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.

Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.

321gold Inc
http://www.321gold.com/images/home2.gif (http://www.321gold.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051006.html

mama mia

10.05.2006, 13:13

Posted On: Tuesday, May 09, 2006
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Gold and Dollar Market Summary
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
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Dear CIGAs,

The question you have is simple: Is this the BIG ONE? The answer is YES! It is so reminiscent of the move from $400 to $887.50 in the 70s that this must be the Big Kahuna of $400 to $1650 in the “Gold Bull Market of the Millennium.”

So order your 5 point seatbelt, fire extinguisher and install water cooled brakes. This experience is going to be like driving Road America in a twin turbo Porsche going 200 mph straight towards a corner you can only negotiate at 60. The violence coming at gold will set your hair on fire. This is no longer a market for the ordinary investor or the self styled trader. $100 swings will become the norm, not the exception. Gold will take out every Angel as it moves to the $1650 mark in a manner that will blow your mind. I have seen all this before with the same personalities at the helm so tighten your seat belts comrades in golden arms, because the Big Kahuna is here. I will give you more this evening but it is now 7pm and my daughter insists I eat at least one meal a day. I manage a public company, trade all markets and write to you multiple times a day. Excuse me while I take my dinner and will get back to you shortly.

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3573&T_ARID=3640&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=

Zwerg

10.05.2006, 13:59

Soeben mit meinen Prinzipien gebrochen KO-Long auf Silber gekauft.

Aber nur mit extrem wenig Geld

mama mia

10.05.2006, 14:58

...wie AHKorte treffend sagte: Good Morning Comex ;)

mama mia

11.05.2006, 09:29

...und das wohl good morning Europe :D

mama mia

11.05.2006, 09:32

GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS WORSEN
May 9th, 2006 Monty Guild
WHY WE LIKE ENERGY AND GOLD LONGER TERM AND NOT JUST FOR THE MOMENT

As we are fond of repeating, we have liked energy and gold for several years. As of today, we continue to like both of them as long-term investments.

ENERGY

On Monday May 1, 2006, the Wall Street Journal had an interview with an energy fund manager named Dan Rice. The article was entitled “Mr. Rice’s Wild Ride” and it was written by Gregory Zuckerman.

I liked the article because Mr. Rice agreed with many of my opinions. He and I both agree that currently the valuation of oil, oil service and natural gas stocks assume an oil price of about $45 per barrel, and a natural gas price of about $ 6.25 in the US.

The question an investor must ask oneself is: How much do I think oil and gas will average in the US for the next 5 years? I have been asking myself that question for several years, and my answer is oil will average about $ 65 per barrel over that period with a range of well over $100 at the top and a low of about $50. I can make a case for much higher prices, but I am being conservative.

If prices of energy develop as I expect, we will have oil company stock prices rising by 50%, and natural gas stocks rising by about 25%. Foreign gas stocks could double, as could some faster growing foreign oil companies. There is a glut of natural gas in the US and Canada, but it is in short supply in Europe and parts of Asia.

During the last couple of years, a pattern has developed whereby oil and gas stocks have two periods of decline during the year. During these corrections, the stocks have been declining about 20% or more each time. It is during these periods of correction, that we plan to add energy stocks to our portfolios.

COAL

As I have written in several letters, coal remains the best source of alternative fuel, and many new technologies are developing, to clean up the US and the world’s huge coal reserves.

We own coals stocks and are looking to add on price corrections. Coal remains an integral part of our energy portfolio.

THE SHIA - SUNNI FISTFIGHT

Lebanon and Bahrain have a Sunni-Shia rift. Much of the Iraq war is about the Shia-Sunni rift. Most of Mid East oil is on Shia occupied land, in countries where Sunnis are in control. Thanks to the wise Larry Jeddeloh of the Institutional Strategist, for this insight.
Now I notice that Lebanon and Bahrain, are both having flare ups of Sunni-Shia tension in last week. Will this spread to a series of Sunni-Shia wars in the Mideast. In our opinion, it is already happening.

DEMAND FOR CAPITAL GOODS BOOMS—– ESPECIALLY IN THE COUNTRIES WITH BIG PROFITS IN COMMODITIES

If you were Saudi Arabia, Chile or perhaps Bahrain, would you just sit there and pump up your natural resources, never thinking of the future? I doubt that you would be so shortsighted. Thus, it comes as no surprise that there is a worldwide boom in capital equipment demand, and most of it is originating from the countries that mine and produce energy and minerals for global demand.

They are buying new machinery to produce their existing products more effectively, and also to vertically integrate their production of those materials. On top of that, they are diversifying their activities into new areas to expand the scope of their economies, and to diversify away from an economy based on one or two industries.

IN LATIN AMERICA, HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES LEAD TO GREED—
THE DANCE OF THE NEW DICTATORS AND THE OLD PRESIDENTS

Poor President Lula da Silva of Brazil; he was recently stepped on by his former friend, President Evo Morales of Bolivia. One of President Morales’ first acts after becoming president of Bolivia was to nationalize the Bolivian petroleum industry, including the part owned by the Brazilian petroleum company Petrobras. Morales is also raising the price of the natural gas that he sells to his neighbors. The exact amount of the price increase has not yet been agreed upon.

Meanwhile, the new Bolivian President is busy following in the footsteps of Venezuela’s President Chavez. He is setting himself up as a dictator. He has forced four people to quit the Supreme Court after nationalizing the oil and gas fields. He also said this is just the beginning and that mining, forestry and the land are next.

The three amigos: Castro in Cuba, Chavez and Morales are going to keep South America in turmoil if they can. The effect upon the people of Venezuela and Bolivia will be similar to the effect of Castro on Cuba. Under Castro, Cuba has fallen deeper into poverty, suffering, and as much exit immigration as the government will allow.

By the way, what happened when Bolivia nationalized the tin industry decades ago? I’m sure that you can remember or guess, the results were not pretty for Bolivia.

It looks like the three amigos are setting up for a fight with their neighbors in South America. The US does not import much energy from Bolivia, but the rest of South America does. The US imports a lot of oil from Mexico and from Venezuela.

THE SUM OF ALL THIS, AND MUCH MORE WORLD TURMOIL IS, THAT GOLD WILL BE IN GREATER DEMAND.

THE MEDIA COVERAGE IS SAYING THAT CHINESE BANKS ARE A GOOD INVESTMENT

Our cynical side tells us that the PR campaign with all the media coverage is being engineered because major Chinese banks are coming public in Hong Kong soon. Mainland Chinese Banks, make politically motivated loans, and don’t collect enough interest and repayments of principal on time. However, they have been in demand, as foreign investors hope to get a foothold, and benefit from Chinese growth through investing in their banks.

It reminds me of the internet stocks in the late 1990’s. A bunch of people who know they are absurdly overvalued, buy them anyway because they think a greater fool may come along to buy them later at higher prices.

China is filled with people who do not understand the simplest concepts of capitalism, like repaying loans. Many Chinese, expect to be reimbursed if an investment that they choose to make, goes down. I’m afraid they will get a rude awakening, and I don’t want to be awakened with them. If you own any mainland Chinese banks, we recommend that you treat them as speculations and trade them, rather than invest.

SUMMARY

We own and continue to believe in gold and oil. Oil will be in demand for years for both political and economic reasons. We believe that we will see continued appreciation in energy stocks. That said, we suggest that investors wait to buy them on the two corrections, that they seem to have each year.

[B]Gold will rise because three global trends will continue. One, global inflation will continue. Two, Middle Eastern military conflicts will continue. Finally, wealth will continue to be accrued in countries like China and India, where investors and hoarders want gold as a form of security and savings.

This Article is listed in Investment, Gold and Precious Metals, U.S. Stocks, Commodities, Foreign Stocks, Politics, Energy and Oil, Economics, Precious Metal Investment |

http://www.guildinvestment.com/commentary/

mama mia

11.05.2006, 09:56

Stress free gold investing

Jack Chan
www.traderscorporation.com (http://www.traderscorporation.com/)
May 10, 2006

By now, almost everyone who has any interests in the financial markets is aware that gold is at levels we have not seen for twenty five years. The question I often get asked by public readers is, is it too late to buy? A follow up question would be: what should I buy?

First, is it too late to buy?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan051006/1.gif USERX - one of the best performing gold funds. As you can see, despite having gained more than 700% off the bottom, relative to the previous bull market, we've only just begun. The big move is ahead of us, not behind us.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan051006/2.gif We've had four buy signals since Oct 2005, and all four are profitable. We continue to look for set up for new money to enter the market, therefore, newcomers must wait for the next buy signal.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan051006/3.gif As to what to buy, the simplest way to invest is to pick one of the best performing gold mutual funds such as USERX. If the current trend continues, we should see $30 by the end of 2006.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan051006/4.gif RYPMX - another fund on our roster, RYPMX has now broken out of resistance and next price target is $95.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan051006/5.gif RBF468 - precious metals fund for Cdn investors, this RBC fund is quite possibly the best performing Cdn mutual fund, period. There is absolutely no overhead resistance as new money continues to buy the dips.

Summary

For most investors and traders, the funds are an excellent way to have exposure to the gold sector while keeping risk at minimum. It also offers diversification, and simple management. Despite the spectacular rise of both the metals and mining stocks in the past four years, this is just the beginning and not the end. As I have said before, I would be concerned when we have a 24 hour gold channel on TV... Get on board and stay on board!

End of report

May 8, 2006
Jack Chan
Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jack+Chan)
email: info@traderscorporation.com
website: www.traderscorporation.com (http://www.traderscorporation.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan051006.html

mama mia

11.05.2006, 17:28

...kleine Zwischenstandsmeldung ;)

:wirr

mama mia

11.05.2006, 18:00

August 15, 1971: Inflation Unleashed

Nick Barisheff
May 11, 2006

The general public, the media and most financial observers were largely unaware of the momentous event that took place on August 15, 1971. However, the implications of that event have had an enormous impact on global financial conditions ever since. On that date, US President Richard Nixon "closed the gold window". In essence, this meant the US would no longer honour the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, which made the US dollar the world's reserve currency, and allowed other countries to convert their US-dollar holdings into gold. In simple terms, the US defaulted. Those who may have glanced at the announcement buried within the pages of their daily newspaper were unlikely to have understood the implications for their financial future.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff051106/1a.jpgUnder Bretton Woods, there was some control over the money supply since other currencies were convertible into US dollars, and the dollar itself was convertible into gold. With the demise of Bretton Woods, the entire world found itself on a monetary system backed by nothing more than the faith and credit of individual governments for the first time in history - a pure fiat system. This meant there were no longer any restraints on the amount of money that individual governments could create at will. As a result, a flood of paper money was unleashed globally, a trend that has increased exponentially over recent years.

The official justification for Nixon's action was that foreign central banks were getting nervous about the dollar's strength caused by a growing US federal budget deficit, and were converting US dollars into gold in increasing amounts. The US gold reserves had declined from a peak of 21,682 tonnes in 1948 to 15,821 tonnes by 1960. By the time Nixon closed the gold window, US reserves had dropped below 8,500 tonnes. Nixon could not risk any further depletion of US gold reserves.

As a consequence of Nixon's move, the US dollar declined against most currencies over the following decade, and declined 95% against gold as the price of gold shot up from *$35 per ounce to a high of $850 per ounce in 1981. The situation finally stabilized when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 18%, halting further declines in the dollar and triggering a 20-year bear market in gold.

Without the fiscal restraints inherent in a gold-backed currency, politicians worldwide were able to promise social programs and expand government bureaucracies that could be delivered through borrowing money created by the central banks rather than through direct taxation. They could embark on military campaigns with borrowed dollars that future generations would have to repay. And borrow they did, particularly in the US. In 1971 the total US federal debt stood at $436 billion. Today, that number exceeds $8 trillion. The 2005 increase in the federal debt of $571 billion was more than the total debt in 1971. Worse still, when calculated in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and taking unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations into account, the total federal debt is actually $49.4 trillion. This equates to more than $160,000 for every American.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff051106/2.gifFrom a monetary base of about $800 billion in 1971, the growth in money supply started to accelerate exponentially from 1987 onward, as Alan Greenspan became more comfortable in his role as Federal Reserve chairman. During his term in office, he created more money than all the previous Fed chairmen combined. At the time of his appointment in 1987, the total broad-based money supply (M3) stood at $3.6 trillion. By the end of his 19-year tenure, it had increased nearly three-fold to a staggering $10.2 trillion. Greenspan's replacement, Ben Bernanke, is likely to surpass Greenspan's record. He earned the nickname "Helicopter Ben" following a speech in which he said, "The US government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost", and suggested that the US Fed could resort to dropping money from helicopters if necessary. In the future, the amount of money created by the Fed will be difficult to determine since it has announced that, after March 2006, M3 will no longer be reported.

The unrestrained creation of money since 1971 has gradually been eroding the purchasing power of most currencies, and has resulted in a subtle form of indirect taxation. In terms of purchasing power, the US dollar has lost 82% as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). All the world's other major currencies, freed from the constraints of gold, have lost similar amounts. The Canadian dollar, for example, has lost 83% of its purchasing power. Today, most people view inflation as an increase in the cost of living as measured by the CPI. However, the accurate definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply that leads to rising prices. Increasing money supply is the cause; increasing prices are the effect. In recent years, most industrialized countries have been increasing M3 by more than double the reported increases in the CPI. Some of the annual increases in 2005 were: US 7.8%, Canada 8.4%, Euro zone 7.6%, and Britain 12.1%.

Apart from increases in the cost of goods and services, expanding money supply can also lead to financial bubbles. In the 1980s, Japan increased its money supply by a factor of three. This led to both a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble. Both sectors experienced massive declines when the bubbles burst, and are still more than 75% below their 1989 peaks. In the US, expansion of the money supply started to accelerate after the market crash of October 1987, when Greenspan began lowering interest rates and expanding the money supply. The excess money first flowed into NASDAQ stocks. In December 1996, Greenspan made his famous "irrational exuberance" speech as the NASDAQ approached 1,000. The market became even more "irrational", however, and climbed to 5,000 by March 2000. When the first bubble burst, the NASDAQ lost 75% of its value, and today remains 58% below its 2000 high.

As interest rates were lowered even further, new money flowed into the real-estate market, creating a housing bubble as consumers bought new homes with low-cost mortgages. The housing bubble set off a wave of consumer spending, as proceeds from mortgage refinancing were used to buy consumer products. Today the real- estate market is beginning to falter, with mortgage foreclosures and debt defaults accelerating.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff051106/3a.gif The effects of uncontrolled money expansion have already been experienced in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, South-East Asia, Japan and Russia. Each has experienced a major currency crisis accompanied by plunging stock markets and collapsing real-estate markets, while many bonds and other debt instruments became worthless. Precious metals prices increased dramatically during these currency crises, acting in their traditional safe-haven role. Now, warnings of trouble ahead for the US dollar are being sounded. As measured by the US Dollar Index, the trade-weighted value of the dollar has declined by 25% from its peak in 2001. In gold terms, however, it has lost over 50%. Since mid-year 2005, all currencies have started to decline against the prices of gold, silver and platinum, signaling that astute investors are beginning to lose confidence in paper currencies and are turning to precious metals to preserve their wealth.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff051106/4.gif As even more credit money is created, global investors will begin to lose confidence in the US dollar and question whether the US is able to repay its massive debt obligations. The US federal budget deficit, trade deficit and current account deficit are already growing exponentially. Eventually, investors will be unwilling to purchase US debt as they have in the past. This will force the Fed to increase the money supply even further in order to purchase federal debt obligations that foreign investors are no longer interested in. As more money is created, the exchange value of the dollar will plummet even further, and foreign investors will suffer increasing currency exchange losses. Eventually they will begin selling their US investments and converting their US-dollar proceeds into other currencies and precious metals.

Just as all previous attempts to implement a purely fiat monetary system have failed, so will this 35-year paper money experiment. Throughout history, kings, emperors and politicians have never had the self-discipline to limit their spending in the absence of the restraints imposed by gold. While the timing of a US-dollar collapse and the global currency crisis that will accompany it may be difficult to predict, it looms ahead nevertheless.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff051106/5.gif There is little chance that the mountain of US debt will ever be repaid, or that the US trade deficit will be reversed. Without massive inflation, the US has no way to meet its $50 trillion Social Security and Medicare obligations. As global investors look to other currencies, they will realize they are not fundamentally any better. Most foreign central banks will attempt to debase their currencies to match the decline in the US dollar in order to stay competitive in exports, resulting in a round of competing currency devaluations where all paper currencies decline relative to gold, silver and platinum. Individual investors, institutions and central banks will turn to the historical safe haven of precious metals to protect their wealth. Since all three metals are already in a supply deficit and aboveground supplies are minute in comparison to financial assets, growing demand will push precious metals' prices dramatically higher.

The ultimate consequences of Richard Nixon's decision to close the gold window on August 15, 1971 will then be understood by everyone.

*All dollar amounts expressed in US currency unless otherwise indicated.

May 5, 2006
Nick Barisheff

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/millennium.gif (http://www.bmsinc.ca/)http://www.321gold.com/photos/nick_barisheff.jpgNick Barisheff is the co-founder and President of Bullion Management Services Inc., which was established to create and manage The Millennium BullionFund.

The fund is Canada's first and only RRSP eligible open-end Mutual Fund Trust that holds physical Gold, Silver and Platinum bullion. www.bmsinc.ca (http://www.bmsinc.ca/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff051106.html
(http://www.bmsinc.ca/)

mama mia

12.05.2006, 08:39

Weapons Of Mass Destruction

by Jim Willie CB
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)"
May 12, 2006

For specific detailed analysis of the Gold, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and Fed monetary policy, see instructions for subscription to my newsletter research reports, which include stock recommendations positioned to rise in the commodity bull market. Articles in this series are promotional.

No, not in a military sense, but financial. They are many, and the United States is in firm possession of most of them. We have the corner on this market, a monopoly sort of. Japan has its own Asian corner on this market, only because they have been US lackeys for so long. Space is limited to list them all, but the major weapons which have succeeded in gutting the USEconomy can certainly be cited. Let this article serve as a collage of images, each powerful in its own way. The story lines are brief, since the pictures each tell a thousand words. The United States has put itself in a predicament with over three decades of serious dedication to monetary inflation as a means to wealth accumulation. In the process, real workers have suffered as the Manhattan Made Men have pilfered riches from their corrupt close connections to the Ruling Elite. They have had access to the gold riches in Fort Knox, access to the keys of the printing press kingdom. If money can be printed, then only those who are privileged to borrow it easily can benefit. The hit & run artists in the financial world can actually benefit. But the run of the mill participant typically get the short end of the stick, ones who live with the drip drip drip of accumulating debt burdens. Those who worked their entire lives, saved a gob of money, invested in bonds, are now getting screwed. Bond speculators control the whole game, and have left the public to eat the holes in the doughnuts.

Now we find ourselves in a jam, with labor uncompetitive in its wage, with our commodity deposits (energy & minerals) mostly depleted, with our dependence on foreigners staggering & overwhelming (commodities & capital), with our legitimate wealth engines (manufacturing) largely vanished, with bizarre retail shopping centers the recognized foundation to our commerce (pathological), with reliance upon assets bubbles our chosen way of economic life, with constant raids on our home equity deemed normal. An entire generation of economic counselors has preached heretical principles, strayed from proven principles that have stood the test of time, and adopted absurd mythologies which spring up in order to justify the reckless path they have led us toward. To say the current system is unfixable is an under-statement. All measures toward cure would be met with instant political obstructions. We are so lost. The bread crumbs have long washed away from all the years of liquidity spilling onto our paths.

My country has to resort to coercion, bullying, fraudulent accounting, deceptive statistics, double talk communication, now pre-emptive attacks with flawed intelligence in order to protect itself, or is it to supply itself? We have morphed into a nation of pathetic financial drug addicts, hollowed to the core. Our weapons of mass destruction have set the stage for our own annihilation. Darwinism will be hard at work to cull from the Economic Landscape all those not worthy of natural selection. Some mistakenly believe (surely USGovt leaders) that silent Darwin pickers select the biggest and strongest. Wrong!!! Darwin invisible search committees select for survival all those capable of adapting to a changing environment of our own making. Can we survive our own devices?

YOU GO, GOLD !!!

The gold price shot over $700 this week, even extending toward $720 quickly. My public forecast was for an easy ride to $700 before the end of this year. That was a public wimpy stand. Privately, my emails to friends and objects of my torment cited "before the end of June in breath-taking fashion" most likely. Gold has four bull legs, cited before.

1) Chinese delink of yuan currency
2) King Abdullah assumes Saudi throne
3) retirement of Greenspan as USFed Chairman
4) public removal of M3 money supply statistic
new bull whip) G7 coordinated USDollar devaluation

In the last couple weeks, a bull whip has been applied to the haunches of this bull which shows no fatigue. The bull whip comes in the form of the G7 Meeting of finance ministers, who have blessed a USDollar devaluation. Listen to what they say: the intervention tool has been removed from the table. The latest event was a gaffe during the White House meeting with Chinese President Hu. The obtuse host (slept through history class?) played the Taiwanese national anthem and introduced Hu from the Republic of China. Wow! Try the Peoples Republic of China, dude. Just two months earlier the same man who purports to lead the free world from the White House declared Pakistan as a fine example of free Arabs. Well, if truth be known, Pakistan is not Arab, doesn't even speak Arabic, and is led by a US-approved dictator who took office after a coup d'état. Leadership of the USGovt has contributed to the gold advance. The world is catching wind to the Keystone Cops as leaders. The flower bed has been trampled so often that flowers no longer grow there.

Proceed through the collage of images. Each has a role in the unfixable predicament the United States finds itself. Prepare for a 20% to 30% decline in the USDollar, a similar decline in the housing sector, as the USEconomy suffers magnificent strain and turmoil. A march past $1000 for gold and an easy move past $25 in silver are assured. Sit back if you are a cool cat investor in gold mining or silver mining stocks. Investors in industrial metals such as copper, iron, zinc, tin, and aluminum are not to be denied either. They received an invitation to the party also.

GOLD INVESTORS - COOL CATS

Got it made in the shade, or fun in the sun, yeah, yeah, something like that !!! Tabby, we sure are politically correct with our spiffy swim wear, eh? We got them all covered.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/03.jpg MONETARY PRINTING PRESS

In good times, print money. We can pay it back later. In bad times, print more money. We need the stimulus to find the good times. When in doubt, print money. Think of it as insurance. After all, printing press output is both legitimate wealth, and costs next to nothing. Acid? What acid?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/05.jpg INFLATION ENGINEERS

Give us (US) Groucho instead of the inflation engineer whom nobody understood, surely not the inflation engineer whom all clearly understand. Transparency is ok unless what we see is scary as hell and shallower than scary. Ok, liquidity is good, but what if that liquidity is from human excrement and effluent?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/07.jpg http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/09.jpg US FEDERAL RESERVE GOVERNORS

The Knights of the Round Table seem to be block heads. Have any run a business? Can any of them even define inflation, let alone measure it? Do they ever bring reliable proven economic indicators to the table? Is communication in FedSpeak a job pre-requisite? Or is it learned from the sitting chairman? Is it too late to revoke the contract for the Federal Reserve? Is this august body beholden to foreigners? Hmmm.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/11.jpg A TREASURY WITHOUT GOLD

The US Congress cannot get a straight answer to "how much gold is left?" Some cock & bull story is offered about national security in currency management of the USDollar whenever the contractor is asked that basic question. Somehow "no accountability" rings in my ears. So you guys are telling me that we are the wealthiest nation in the world, even though we have gargantuan debts held abroad, with astronomic unfounded obligations, with almost no gold left in our vaults? That makes sense, if residence is an asylum.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/13.jpg ECONOMIC MYTHOLOGY

When things go awry, which is every decade, which is every new Presidential Administration, we just pay a visit to the mountain. When the Pied Piper returns, he claims another Bestial Burning Bush laid it all out on tablets. Poof, we are bestowed yet another nonsensical chapter of pure economic mythology. The ignorant public buys it with a dose of hope. They trust our leaders for economic guidance, since they don't know any better.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/15.jpg LOST COMPASS ON ECONOMIC POLICY

We have truly lost our way. Not a single utterance from Federal Reserve Governors (nor Chairman), nor White House Council of Economic Advisors, makes a single doggone bit of sense. They are not deserving of capital letters in their titles. Our guiding tools no longer function. The tools themselves no longer meet manufacturer specifications. The corruption of our thought patterns is complete. We have lost our way.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/17.jpg DEBT & CREDIT ADDICTION

Please pass the punch bowl. We need to get to the punch bowl. Let's hope the maestros spikes the punchbowl. You gotta love that punch bowl. Don't know what's in that punch bowl, but sure do love it. No addicts around here! We don't abuse debt and credit. We deny our denial.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/18.jpg MONEY, AS DENOMINATED DEBT

We have confused legal tender for money. We have confused credit for wealth. Our money could not survive a Constitutional challenge. Nobody would dare challenge it anyway, probably for fear it would be tossed out of court. Nah, nobody challenges it so that the Supreme Court would not be forced to say "the USDollar is illegal, but we will give it official approval anyway."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/20.jpg STATISTICS AS PROPAGANDA DISINFORMATION

Every single major economic statistic is a lie and a fraud. Every inflation adjusted statistic is wrong, overstated by 4% to 5%. We have motive to sell our debt to unsuspecting foreigners, who work for a living and send us their savings. Economists are proficient at lying with statistics. They make no sense. The world no longer believes them. Tell big lies often enough, and the public will tend to believe them.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/22.jpg LEADERSHIP

To what extent do foreigners sell down the USDollar because they distrust USGovt leaders? Or distrust US banking leaders? Who knows? It is not so much that the emperor wears no clothes. It is more like the emperor is clothed with nothing but borrowed, tattered clothes more fitting on indentured servants. Skivvies have holes patched by debts.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/24.jpg MERGER OF GOVT & INDUSTRY

The definition of Italian Fascism is a merger of state and large corporate interests. Government institutions and agencies become intertwined with key corporations. The public interest becomes blurred with aristocratic private interests. Can any reasonable person deny that a dozen key giant corporations dominate, determine, and delegate policy for our economic, financial, and commercial directions? To what extent do friends of leaders front run with personal investment, the decisions made by leaders? Dunno, probably to a significant degree.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/26.jpg WALL STREET AS A CASINO

Most households are forced to gamble with their life savings, or else put it in a mattress? Most financial markets are so volatile and laden with risk that an investment account must deal with stresses and strains more in line with the vagaries of a casino. We must manage our pension funds with great care, or else lose them. How many people even have a pension anymore? Many lost theirs in the last fiasco, the tech telecom stock bust of 2000. Even management of a home and its equity has degraded into a fast moving portfolio account bearing resemblance to a housing futures contract on the commodity exchange. How many merger acquisitions have confiscated the target pension fund, of course legally? Who will reap the benefits of Fanny Mae claims on the nonstop archipelago of foreclosed properties?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/28.jpg PORTS FOR ASIAN INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

We are experts at building up developing economies. When almost 25% of all container vessels return to Asia empty, something is wrong. Most of our ports are operated and owned by foreigners. Most of the contents moved at ports are built by foreigners. The money to pay for such contents surely is paid to foreigners. What is wrong with this picture?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/30.jpg RELIANCE UPON PERSIAN GULF OIL

We rely for over 50% of our crude oil from imported supplies, mostly coming from the Persian Gulf, a hotbed of hostility. Those transactions will increasingly be completed in a currency other than the USDollar. Oil exchanges are springing up worldwide, like in Norway, Qatar, Dubai, Iran, and Russia. In the next couple years, our crude oil dependence will be matched by a natural gas dependence. Are we even bothering to invest in alternatives like fuel cells, hydrogen technology, and others? Give me a break. The Japanese will own those technologies just like the rest, since they are spending vast sums on research. Our priorities are way off base.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/tanker.jpg (http://www.qatargas.com.qa/media-room/6.htm) THE FUTURE STORM

A mammoth storm this way comes. We are not prepared. We are not properly invested. Our leaders have no clue. Our consumption has gone amok. We have become gluttons. Our chips are on the wrong tables. Our military machinery might be eaten by sand. Even the global climate is changing, with USGovt censoring of that message. A mammoth storm this way comes.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/33.jpg HOUSING BUST

What was inflated, next deflates. What saved our bacon in 2001 through 2005, next cooks our bacon in 2006 through 2010. Legitimate wealth? No way, more like a basic inflated asset soon to come back to earth. The flippers might soon find themselves flipping burgers at the fast food outlets. The pain will be unavoidable.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/35.jpg ECONOMIC DEAD ZONES

This is a concept which will become extremely familiar in time. Mine eyes once gazed upon East St Louis, a dead town. New Orleans qualifies in parts as a dead zone. Is it not being rebuilt because another set of major storms comes this way? Methinks yes. New housing developments will run the risk of becoming dead zones as defaults and foreclosures grow to be commonplace. Communities dependent upon the car industry will run the risk of becoming dead zones. After rationing is ordered, more dead zones will spring up. Creative destruction in capitalist pursuit will yield to basic destruction under benign neglect.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/37.jpg US ECONOMY UNDER WEIGHT OF FALLING USDOLLAR,
RISING INTEREST RATES, RISING COSTS, HOUSING DECLINE

The exhale part is easy to comprehend. If learning is required, that is ok.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/39.jpg THE FUTURE PETRO CURRENCY

The other North American dollar bears respect. They do talk funny up there, eh? They don't need gold in their government vaults. They have oil in the fields and metals in the ground. That is all the necessary collateral required to fortify a currency, for at least another decade or two. Their western provinces are abuzz with economic development, eh? The Canadian Dollar is the only worthy petro-currency. Next on the table will be the Russian ruble. Gee whizzakers, that is a powerful looking looney chart, eh?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/41.jpg http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051206/43.gif THE HAT TRICK LETTER COMBINES MACRO ANALYSIS WITH INVESTMENTS.

From subscribers and readers:
"I trade commodity futures for my company and it has been one hell of a volatile 2006. Please never compromise on the manner in which you write and thanks for the no BS. I stopped reading Business Week, Economist, Forbes, Barrons, Wall Street Journal, in the 90´s. I am very selective these days."
(Bill S in Argentina)
"I trade silver futures for a living. So I try to keep up with the omnipresent geopolitical & economic big picture. I can count on one hand the gents I'm willing to invest the time to study on a regular basis, and you are one. Your recent radio interview with the intriguing analysis of the carry trade put me over the edge."
(Lisa Q in California)
"Concise, in-depth, timely information and analysis of global macro-economics is what you get from Jim in trading commodities stocks. I don't believe anyone else writes about and clarifies such a complex topic in such an understandable way."
(Geoff W in Colorado)
"You, sir, are the only writer I would pay to read because your perspectives are unique, upfront, uncompromising, and ACCURATE. I recognize off-the-charts brainpower when I am presented with such."
(Richard B in Texas)

May 11, 2006
Jim Willie CB

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/hats.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
Willie Archives
(http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jim+Willie+CB)website: Golden Jackass (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html)

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 24 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his website at www.GoldenJackass.com (http://www.goldenjackass.com/).

mama mia

12.05.2006, 08:58

CHARTWORKS - MAY 10, 2006
GOLD as related to the CRB

Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
May 12, 2006

From 1988 through the summer of 2005 the gold price underperformed most commodities. During that period the ratio of the gold price over the CRB Index found support at 1.25 (the same level seen in 1982, '84 and '85).

Since August the ratio has advanced significantly and now sits at 1.94. This was also concurrent with the move in gold against all currencies (not just against the US Dollar). We can anticipate resistance once the ratio gets to 2.10. It would take a gold price of $742 if the CRB were to remain unchanged. Because this ratio is a dynamic item with two variables we will monitor it over the coming months and advise if it becomes excessive.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051206/hoye051206.gif

The CRB index is not the one used in Pivotal Events. The commodity side of our gold/commodities index has a larger weighting in base metals and no weighting in gold.

-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye051206.html

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=917837#post917837)

mama mia

12.05.2006, 10:10

$1000 Gold:
It May Be Here Sooner Than You Think
http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
Emanuel Balarie
http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
The price of Gold broke the $700 mark and is now hovering near $730/ounce. In fact, I believe that we will have a relatively quick move to $800 and even stand a chance of breaking $1000/ounce before the year is over! This might come as a bold statement to some, but as a reminder I was one of the few that correctly predicted that we would break $600/ounce early in 2006 (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/negative-savings.html) when gold was still hovering at below $500. In an updated prediction, I also stated that I believed that we would break $700/ounce before the end of the year. In the midst of these predictions, there were a number of skeptics that scoffed at my predictions. So what makes me think that we can potentially reach the $1000 before year end? Those same skeptics still exist.

If you are interested in the fundamental reasons why Gold is heading higher you can read my $600 Gold: We Have Only Just Begun (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/600-dollar-gold.html) article.

Your Average Investor

This past week, I had an opportunity to step away from my office and speak at a couple of conferences. I really enjoy interacting with the general public (that is, people that do not read my commentary or Gold websites on a daily basis!), because it gives me insight on what the typical investor sentiment is. Here are some of the comments that I have heard during the past week.

"I am not buying Gold; I remember buying it at $850/ounce in 1980!"

"Jewelry demand is expected to decline. If that's the case, won't the price of Gold decline?"

"What Central Banks are buying Gold? I thought they have been selling them for the past 20 years!"

"This is a bubble…and it's very speculative! I wouldn't touch this market!"

"Are you a Gold Bug?! [Said with scowl on face]

"What do you mean we have inflation- the Fed says that inflation is in check?"

"I have been a major believer in Gold for years, but I have been waiting for an entry point!"

Believe it or not, these statements were actually made to me. At one of my presentations, I asked the crowd to raise their hands if they believed that we were in a commodity bull market. About 25 % of the people in the room raised their hands. I bring these anecdotes up to make the point that your average investor is still not buying into the legitimacy of this bull market. The talk about a bubble is absolutely absurd. We will likely experience a bubble in the Gold market when your average investor starts quoting the percent of reserves that countries have in Gold.

So what is keeping the general public from buying the legitimacy of this Gold market? If you think about it, this bull market has been around for the better part of five years. We have seen the price of Gold nearly triple during that time. Why aren't people buying into this bull market? Here are some potential reasons and my short cursory response. Maybe you fit in one of these below categories:

The Real Estate Focused Investor: Do you know how much money I have made in the real estate market? Not only have my condos appreciated in value, but I have rental coming in. Why would I want to sell a portion of my real estate to buy Gold? Any additionally money I get, I will buy another condo! In fact, I don't even need any down payment! I can just get one of those zero down, interest only loans!

Emanuel Balarie: Have you considered that the market has been pushed up by artificially low interest rates? Record low interest rates will inevitably rise. In turn, this will lead to defaults, a slowdown in demand, and greater supply of homes on the market. Read My Real Estate Burst Article (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/real-estate-burst.html)

The Stock Market Fan: The Stock Market is Hot! Corporate earnings, consumer confidence numbers, and a strong economy are driving this market! Why would I want to shift from an earnings driven market to a speculative Gold market!

Emanuel Balarie: I do not doubt that we have strong corporate earnings. But where are these earnings coming from? Your average American has negative savings, record credit card debt, and they have been using their homes as ATM machines. What do you think is going to happen when the above mentioned Real Estate owner now has to pay an additional $2000 month for his mortgage? Chances are he will not buy a new car every two years, frequent his local restaurant as often, travel, or simply spend as much discretionary money in the economy. The consumer will no longer be as confident!

The Disgruntled Historian: Don't tell me about Gold. I still own the Gold that I bought when it was $850/ounce. If I could break even…I would be a happy camper! I wouldn't touch Gold again if you paid me!

Emanuel Balarie: I understand that you happened to buy Gold at the speculative top. However, that does not change the fact that we are in the midst of a bull market in Gold. You can either participate in it, or live in the past.

The Data Dependent Statistician: The core CPI is minimal; long term bond yields have remained low; the fed has inflation in check. Why is Gold heading higher in the midst of low inflation? It has to be a bubble.

Emanuel Balarie: Believe it or not, data does not always tell the true picture. Often times, it is delayed. I don't know about you, but I am paying more at the pump, I have a higher cable bill, airfare is more expensive, and pretty soon, the manufacturer who now has experienced higher energy and raw material costs, will pass on those higher costs to me (the consumer).

The "I have enough money to last a lifetime- I could care less guy": I have enough money to last two lifetimes! My advisor has me in treasuries…and that is good enough for me!

Emanuel Balarie: Do you realize that since 1914, when the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined greater than 90% in value? The interest you are receiving on your treasuries will not be enough to cover rising inflation.

Someone Has To Be Wrong

The above interaction is of course meant to be both humorous and educational. The failure of your average investor to acknowledge and participate in this bull market is one of the reasons why I believe that we are still in the early stages of this bull market. Quite honestly, I would have thought that by the time we reached $700/ounce, more people would participate in this Gold market. Interestingly enough, this has not been the case. I strongly believe that the longevity of the real estate bubble, the subsequent stock market rise, and the other above mentioned factors have distracted investors from the rise in Gold.

To an extent, the distraction is somewhat understandable. How can we be in a bull market in stocks, a bull market in commodities, and a bull market in the real estate sector? One would imagine that the higher raw material and energy costs would take a toll on the consumer and producer alike. One would also imagine that these higher costs would also translate into inflation. So who is right? Something has got to give. But one thing is for sure; you cannot have all of these markets continue moving higher in tandem for much longer.

My Reasons For The Potential Move To $1000

Over the last several years, various factors contributed to the price of Gold heading higher. In the beginning of this bull market, we had the US Dollar decline. If you look at the below chart, you can see that the declining dollar and the rise in Gold coincided in 2001.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/balarie051106a.png
Lately, we have seen the decline of the US dollar intensify and the subsequent rise in Gold prices. In 2005, when the US Dollar actually rallied, inflationary concerns sparked fueled Gold prices higher.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/balarie051106b.png
Most recently, geopolitical tensions and central bank buying has also intensified. So what does this mean for the price of Gold?

I believe that we are on the verge of having all of the above mentioned factors coincide and intensify all at the same time. From a geopolitical perspective, tensions with Iran continue to rise. Additionally, the growth of nationalism and anti-US sentiment in Latin America will continue to spur safe haven buying from around the globe.

From an inflationary scenario, most people have been paying attention to the Fed and their data of choice (like the core CPI). I expect the high energy prices and higher raw material costs to eventually pass through to the Core CPI by the end of the year. I also believe we that we will have a spike in the Core CPI that will force the data dependent Fed to both acknowledge inflation and raise rates. Acknowledging inflation will drive a further round of buying into Gold, which has always been an anti-inflationary hedge. Higher rates will accelerate the housing slowdown, curb consumer spending, and have an adverse effect on the overvalued stock market. I do believe that we will most likely experience a crash in the stock market, rather than a slow decline.

The US dollar index can also break through a key support level and continue its multi year decline. This will serve to intensify dollar selling and gold buying by Central Banks. This past week, there is news coming out of China stating that they are looking at doubling their Gold reserves. Doubling their reserves, however, would still put them at 50% of the world average. I would imagine that they will not stop there. This would be bullish for Gold on two levels. Not only is the demand significant, but it will also take a substantial supply off the market.

May 12, 2006

Emanuel Balarie
Senior Market Strategist
ebalarie@wisdomfinancialinc.com
Direct toll free: 866-465-0017
International: 949-548-2021

Emanuel Balarie is a highly regarded advisor who advises high net worth individuals and institutions on the commodity markets and managed futures investments. Mr. Balarie's research has been published internationally and has appeared recently in The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Money Week, as well as on CNBC and MSNBC. You can find out more about Mr. Balarie and his services at Wisdom Financial, Inc.

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/balarie051106.html

mama mia

12.05.2006, 18:01

...kleiner Zwischenstand ;) wie schnell man sich doch an die höheren Preise gewöhnt :schwitz und schon geht's berab :rolleyes na ja, ein bisschen ;)

mama mia

12.05.2006, 19:23

:( hier ein bisschen mehr :o

mama mia

14.05.2006, 12:13

Gold Over $700: Too Much, Too Fast?

By Doug Casey
The International Speculator http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey051506_quote.jpg
May 15, 2006

DOUG CASEY, chairman of Casey Research, is an internationally acclaimed resource stock speculator and author of the book "Crisis Investing," which broke records by spending 26 weeks as #1 on the New York Times Best-Seller list. Each month his International Speculator newsletter provides unbiased, carefully-researched recommendations on early-stage gold, silver and other natural resource stocks with the potential to provide a 100% or better return over the coming 12-month period. To learn more about intelligent investing in resource stocks and about the International Speculator, click here.

Recently there was much ado about an ambitious Harvard student (a redundancy) who got caught with someone else's prose on her hands.

So that I don't suffer the same embarrassment, I will forewarn you that parts of what you are about to read were swiped wholesale... albeit from myself, from a recent interview sent out as a special report to subscribers of our International Speculator newsletter.

While the reasons for this outrage definitely include sloth and a lack of time, they also include the fact that the interview is fresh and still very much relevant to the questions at hand. Namely, "Are we really in the precious metals bull market of a lifetime?" and... "With gold blasting over $700, have things moved too far, too fast?"

To answer the first, I would start by pointing out (as I did to our subscribers) that bull markets and bear markets follow one another as surely as a person in- and exhales. And, as with breathing, the longer you hold your breath, the more urgent and powerful the subsequent intake. Commodities in general, but precious metals in particular, went through a deep bear market that lasted an entire generation. Gold fell from over $800 in 1980 to $256 in 2001; silver from $50 to $4. These are fantastically deep and prolonged bear markets. But they were even worse than they seemed because the dollar was losing about two-thirds of its value at the same time. For Americans to keep track of value, over time, with dollars is as idiotic as for an Argentine to try to do that with pesos.

The financial crisis of the late 1970s drove the metals to those highs. We're now looking at another crisis, one that will dwarf the turmoil of the 1970s and likely bring on a depression worse than the 1930s. With so much trouble just ahead, there's good reason to believe that the metals will exceed their old highs-which, in today's dollars, means gold over $2,000. Let me reiterate what I've said for years: This time, gold isn't just going through the roof. It's going to the moon.

And there are other reasons. Because the bear market was so long and deep, there's been relatively little exploration for new deposits of not just precious metals but of all metals-copper, nickel, moly, zinc, you-name-it. Meanwhile consumption has risen steadily all over the world, but especially in China, and now India.

Entirely apart from that, most areas of the world have been pretty well explored. As with oil, the easy-to-find, rich, near-surface deposits have been cherry picked. What's left are mostly low-grade or deep deposits in hard-to-access locations. And even after you've found a deposit, permitting is expensive and slow.

In a nutshell, the world has been living out of inventory for a long time.

But, as far as the precious metals are concerned, these factors will be greatly compounded by the brewing monetary crisis. It will be of historic proportions.

Has gold moved too far, too fast?

There are basically two views. The bears argue, quite correctly, that commodity run-ups are always self correcting: consumption drops just as production increases and prices retreat. They also point out, correctly, that the longest bear market ever is actually in commodity prices, which have been dropping, in real terms, since the beginning of recorded history. The bulls, including myself, argue that, while these things are true, both fundamental and monetary factors militate for perhaps a decade of higher prices until the fundamental trend reasserts itself. In other words, I think we're in a period that's going to run against the norm. Stocks, in bear markets, tend to fall twice as fast as they previously rose. Commodities, in bull markets, rise twice as fast as they previously fell. We're in one of those times. I, like everyone else, would be much more comfortable in conventional, prosperous times. But I like to be a realist and make the trend, whatever it is, my friend.

When the bubble arrives -- and I'm very confident it will -- it will be easy to tell. The magazine cover stories, the cocktail party buzz, the talk of legislation in Washington to "do something" about high prices, the reports from brokerage firms -- there will be lots of indicators. Of course, few people will pay attention to them in the right way -- they'll think they're accurate descriptions of reality, not indicators of a mania. It was the same with the Internet stocks a few years ago.

Generally there are three stages to a bull market. The first is stealth, when prices go up but nobody cares or even notices. With commodities, that happened from about 2000 to 2003. Next is the "Wall of Worry" stage. People see that prices are rising, but expect them to fall back to the bear market levels they'd gotten used to. People come up with all kinds of reasons why they're overpriced. They are confused by the new reality, and many "old hands" and commodity producers take the opportunity to sell, since they haven't seen good prices for years. This is the stage of the market we're now in. Finally, there is the mania stage, when broad masses of the public get involved. It's where the big profits -- but also the big risks -- are. Personally, I'm more comfortable buying when everyone says you're an idiot for doing so, or at least when they're skeptical. When we're all hearing about what a great investment gold is, I'll be looking for other opportunities. But my guess is that we won't really be there for another year. And when it arrives, the mania should last for some time, as it did most recently with the Internet stocks.

While I was expecting to see a big surge -- and went on record with that expectation on March 22 when gold was trading at $550 -- there's little doubt that gold and silver may be getting ahead of themselves for the short term. A market trend, even an unstoppable one -- which is how I view the current metals bull market -- is still going to periodically correct.

Get used to it.

That is especially true if you're an investor in the mining shares, which is absolutely, without question, the right way to play this market. Buy on dips (historically, we see buying opportunities in the summer months) and don't be chased out of the market by volatility.

When this thing does finally come to an end, the better-managed gold and silver stocks will be trading for many multiples of what they trade for today.

This trend is your friend... get comfortable with it.

-Doug Casey

The emerging bull market in precious metals, and in the precious metals stocks, is just beginning to gather speed, with 100%, 300%, even 2,000% profits ahead for early investors.

But the really big profits require being selective in your chosen stocks, avoiding the "paper tigers" and focusing on those with excellent management teams, working on big targets in highly prospective geology. For over 20 years, Doug Casey's International Speculator has been providing investors with clear, unbiased recommendations on the world's best resource stocks. To learn more about this uniquely valuable service, click the link below.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0506A

-Doug Casey
The International Speculator

mama mia

15.05.2006, 08:56

Gold Forecaster - Global Watch
The Gold Price - A "Spike" or something else?

Julian D.W. Phillips
May 15, 2006

Excerpts from "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch."

At one extreme, there are the "Gold Bugs", supposedly constant 'bulls' of the gold price, so not too reliable? At the other end there are those who look at the gold price as "peaking", simply because it has gone up a lot, so it has to come down. And with so many one way or the other, the market is labeled as dangerous or worse. But there is a tendency amongst professionals as well as amateurs, to believe that if it is not measurable, of numerically definable, it is dangerous, speculative or just plain gambling. In this gold market, such views will exact a heavy penalty from those who hold them!

The reasoned reality is so different from the above, leaving the only pertinent question, "Is this gold price rise a 'spike' or something very, very different"

1980 'Spike'

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips051506/1.gif We now believe that this market has taken the position the gold market was headed to in the '70's and '80's, before "Official Intervention" [Central Bank sales, leasing, accelerated supply, etc] took the gold price down over the next 20 years. Then gold 'spiked' to $875. We call it a 'spike' because the price went quickly down, when new supplies were thrown at the market and demand just was insufficient to take this supply up. Yes, there were other macro-economic features of note that we find similar to today, for sure, but nowhere near as disturbing as they are today!

Reasons why

Inflation: This roared until in 1979, until Volcker drove interest rates up to 25%+ quickly, to cap it and cap it well, but this was seen in the developed world and was initially triggered by oil prices that had jumped from $8 a barrel to $35 a barrel.

Gold rose on the back of that inflation and fell on its fall too. But today is very, very different!

Inflation is not driving prices up as it was then. Inflation is being restrained by deflation caused by cheap imported goods and amongst other reasons, by the realization that wage demands may well not be met, despite higher growth rates. Whilst there is a fear that inflation will rise the numbers on which the inflation levels are based are not showing any danger signals. At all!

The oil price: - is jumping now because the globe is heading irresistibly towards a situation where there will simply not be enough oil to go around, irrespective of the oil price, which is certain to go a great deal higher as those nations caught without sufficient oil bid up the price [which looks like heading through $100 a barrel and higher].

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips051506/2.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips051506/2.gif) The drive behind oil price rises in the seventies came from O.P.E.C. fed up with being paid inflated $ for their oil, but a whisper from Uncle Sam in their ear [primarily the Saudi government] about their future being reliant on U.S. backing had them towing the line and dropping prices.

The day when supply is just insufficient is likely to appear in 2007 or thereabouts, but could come considerably earlier, if Iran diverts its supply just to China, or supplies are damaged through a sectarian war among Muslim nations. It could come far earlier if we have another Hurricane Rita, hits the Gulf of Mexico, say, Houston? With global warming there could be more than one such hurricane hit.

China and India are likely to be able to maintain growth through such difficult days too so keeping demand for oil rising inexorably. Visions of national "Musical Chairs" around the oil price jump into ones mind with visions of rationing in the worst affected nations.

In the middle sit the Producers of oil, no longer dependent on the U.S. for their demand, but having a choice between East and West, each willing to pay the price. They are already signing deals with China to supply oil. In addition to the dangers to the oil price mentioned above, lies the growing threat of a conflagration in the Middle East between the two main branches of Islam, the Shi'ites and the Sunnis. Oil exports will no doubt be a prime target of both sides. Hence these prices cannot be dropped by political influence. Rather the reverse is true!

"Official" Supplies of Gold
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/goldbars4.jpgPerhaps the prime reason the gold price appeared to 'spike' in 1980 was the sudden threat of overwhelming Central Bank sales. The prime Central Banks did so threaten, as well as lend, lease and sell [for extremely low interest rates] gold until it fell to $270. It funded the accelerated supply of gold so that it paid to hedge future gold production earning more than the market paid [the additional 'Contango' made this possible].

This stopped in 1999, when the "Washington Agreement" was signed. This clarified who would sell gold and limited it to 400 tonnes worth a year. The second agreement took its place at the end of the 4-year "Washington Agreement", limiting sales to 500 tonnes a year. Interest rates were at a low, so the "contango' shrank to unattractive levels, reducing leasing and lending. With this threat limited to containable levels the gold price turned around and started to rise.

Not only did this reduce the supply to the market, it made the conservative, profitable, hedging of future gold production unwise as the gold price rose above the levels of the prices earned from the hedging of future gold production. Three years ago the market began to see the 'opportunity cost' of hedged positions against the proceeds of 'spot' [immediate] prices make hedging look unacceptable. The proceeds of de-hedging then appeared and slowly gained momentum. This allowed management to close these hedged positions, once again exposing shareholders to the higher open market prices of gold. With gold accelerating its climb, the potential opportunity costs are now horrendous.

Mines such as Western Areas having to deliver virtually, all available production to those with whom they hedged future production. This means that they are looking to earn $430 and ounce, whereas un-hedged mines are earning $720 and ounce. So producers are selling very little and buying back hedged positions. If they believed the gold price was at a 'peak', they would not be closing positions, because they would be buying at the top of the market, ahead of a fall. But clearly they do not believe the gold price is at a peak, so they are buying ahead of further rises!

Investment demand
In the seventies, investment was solely in the form of bullion or coins [excluding India], difficult to ship and to store and expensive to insure. This is still the method very wealthy individuals invest in gold and we are seeing this in growing volumes at the moment. But last year saw new types of investment demand in the developed markets of the world. The World Gold Council wisely launched several gold "Exchange traded Funds", who issued shares against physical holdings of gold in bank vaults. The extent of the demand was not fully gauged!

Many institutions and funds had been restricted to enjoying the benefits of gold through gold mining shares, often disliked, as the attendant risks were higher than they wanted. With the E.T.F.'they are now able to buy shares that move exactly in line with the gold price. Currently moving towards 600 tonnes over the last year and more, demand appears to have no limit. The money under management by these institutions is vast. As the gold price rises, so does the demand for these gold shares. There is no ceiling on this demand. No such demand existed in the seventies!

The Structure of the Gold Market, today!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips051506/3.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips051506/2.gif) A market moving like today's has always been a 'spike' or 'bubble', set to burst, because one assumes that those who bought it must sell once the profit is achieved. But today's market has the above ingredients in it, which describe a far broader and deeper market than ever seen before. This market is more a haven from other investments including currencies and fixed interest securities. So the reasons to sell would have to be founded on the fears of such investors being removed. A cursory glance at the above describes the likelihood of matters worsening across the globe and gold coming into its own as a solid investment when others move out of that particular category.

We see no small speculators flooding the market, indeed the traders of note the hedge funds are low profile in this market.
.
There is no panic in the buying, buying on the dips when possible. The investors are competent professionals taking a position in a long-term investment.
.
This market is not the gold market of a year ago, where the players could move prices either way, where large quick sales from Central Banks would have burst such bubbles.
This is a market that wants to go higher, much higher!

May, 2006
-Julian D.W. Phillips
email: gold-authenticmoney@iafrica.com

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips051506.html
(gold-authenticmoney@iafrica.com)

mama mia

15.05.2006, 08:59

HUI: Major upswing in the making? - Part II

by Eric Hommelberg
May 14, 2006

On May 12 we send out an HUI alert to our members suggesting that due to the Gold/HUI divergence a major HUI upswing couldn’t be ruled out. Well, exactly the opposite happened and the HUI sank like a stone dropping 18 pts…Does it change my HUI outlook? No, not really, it only strengthens the thesis that the Gold/HUI imbalance has reached an extreme that has to be resolved rather sooner than later..Such an imbalance can only be resolved by a major HUI up-swing or a fast dropping gold price. Although the gold price did came down on Friday May 12 it sure wasn’t a convincing drop and to me it seems that pushing down gold in an environment of increasing dollar weakness (dollar failed to recover on slight improved trade balance numbers), rising oil prices, the current US-Iran stand-off and the on-going short cover (gold continues to rise while the open interest continues to drop) is like trying pushing down a ball under water. It will work out for a short period of time but eventually it’ll pop up violently.

Jim Sinclair, one of world’s leading gold authorities told his readers on May 12:

The question you are asking today is if the rally in gold is complete. The answer is NO. The price of gold has internal probability favoring a push into the 800s on this leg of the Great Gold Bull Market of the Millennium. This is all I really need to write today as this is all you really want to know. END.

So if Jim Sinclair is right the odds are that we won’t see a major correction in gold as from this point so in order to resolve the Gold/HUI imbalance we should expect new HUI highs anytime soon..

Let’s take a peek at the updated Gold/HUI charts and comments from May 12:

Ever since the HUI break-out of 250 early December last year I maintained the view that this move could be a similar one as the one we’ve witnessed in 2003 thereby launching the HUI towards the 430 mark! See eg:

http://www.golddrivers.com/Premium/email/HUIfeb28.htm (http://www.golddrivers.com/Premium/email/HUIfeb28.htm)

Now the HUI failed to respond lately to the dramatic rise in gold. Some may argue that this forebodes a correction in the yellow metal itself, some say that gold shares are overvalued anyhow..

Now what about the shares vs gold, is there any correlation? What should be the correlation? Is the HUI lacking indeed?

Some analyst argue that there isn’t any correlation between gold and the HUI at all..

I’m not going to waste my time on such nonsense since the chart below tells it like it is. There’s a strong correlation indeed between rising gold prices and the HUI.

http://www.golddrivers.com/GDRUpdates/images/images%2020060514/GoldvsHUI.gif

Now that we know that there’s a strong correlation indeed why hasn’t the HUI catch up on gold lately?

Well, although there’s a strong correlation indeed that doesn’t mean that the HUI should track gold on a one to one basis… What I mean to say is that sometimes the gold shares are a bit too enthusiastic and they run a bit too far ahead of gold and sometimes they do the opposite so they lag the price of gold.

A wonderful tool to examine these extremes is the Gold/HUI ratio chart…

Over time (in a bull market) the Gold/HUI ratio drops since the gold shares do appreciate faster than gold itself. (Gold rose 180% since 2001 vs the HUI +1000%)

But as said before sometimes the gold shares are a bit too enthusiastic and run a bit too far ahead of gold which translates itself into a steep decline of the Gold/HUI ratio. What happens next is that the Gold/HUI ratio starts to climb for awhile until it catches up to its natural declining trend-line.. And exactly this is what happened since April 17, the Gold/HUI ratio appreciated from 1.61 to 1.91 thereby flirting with its 200 dma. From here on I don’t see a much further upside potential for the Gold/HUI ratio so that simply means that the odds are in favor for a new down-leg towards new lows. Sure enough this will translate itself into new HUI highs

Please take peek at the chart below:

http://www.golddrivers.com/GDRUpdates/images/images%2020060514/GoldHUI.gif

As this chart clearly demonstrates, all previous HUI up-legs of last year started on a high RSI reading of the Gold/HUI ratio just like we’re seeing today (RSI stands at 73.44)

More importantly, the last time the Gold/HUI ratio chart such high RSI readings as we’re witnessing now was in May 2005 and yes, that was a major bottom indeed and yes, the sentiment then was as bad as it is today. (see editorial Gold/HUI Divorce Part I (http://www.golddrivers.com/GDRUpdates/Goldhui20050430.htm)and part II (http://www.golddrivers.com/GDRUpdates/GoldHui20050521.htm))

Furthermore we see that all HUI moves which started from a high RSI reading of the Gold/HUI ratio chart ended up with a gain of 50 -100 pts…

So therefore I’m still confident to hold on to my previous target of 430 but it could be stretched out to well beyond that (480)

Eric Hommelberg

The Gold Discovery Letter/
The Gold Drivers Report

www.golddrivers.com (http://www.golddrivers.com/)

mama mia

15.05.2006, 09:51

Zwischenbericht :(

mama mia

15.05.2006, 20:55

Unsustainable gold on the brink of crash, says US metals guru
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 15/05/2006)

An American metals guru has warned that gold could crash within hours or days after a speculative "blow-off" last week to a 26-year high of $727.75 an ounce.

Peter Grandich, publisher of the closely-watched Grandich Letter, told The Daily Telegraph he expected gold to plummet up to $150 an ounce after reaching the most extreme levels of speculative excess he had ever seen.

"I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15pc, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce," he said.

"In the long-term I'm still very bullish on gold because I think the US dollar is dying and I don't see what can replace it. But the latest rise is quite simply unsustainable."

In a special alert to subscribers, he said gold was showing the classic symptoms of late-stage "exhaustion", with technical indicators flashing danger signs.

Gold is now 37pc above its 200-day moving average, the sharpest spike since the explosive - and fleeting - rally of 1980.

Mr Grandich believes gold will rally to record highs later in the year after touching bottom in the summer, but first it must burn off the current froth. He recommends smaller mining stocks, believing they will soon have their day of "speculative frenzy".

"Once we see a complete break-down of the dollar, then all those crazy predictions we hear of gold reaching $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce could become realistic," he said.

He said the trigger would be a fall below 80 in the US dollar index, a basket of currencies that ended Friday at 83.83. This would be equivalent to about $1.34 to the euro, or $1.98 to the pound.

Mr Grandich said copper prices had reached lunatic levels, a view buttressed by reports over the past week that traditional users of copper are shutting down production rather than paying inflated premiums.

Platts Commodity News said the current price of copper above $8,500 a tonne - up 170pc over the past year -- had become meaningless since physical buyers were remaining aloof. It said the market was "falling apart".

Information appearing on telegraph.co.uk is the copyright of Telegraph Group Limited and must not be reproduced in any medium without licence. For the full copyright statement see Copyright

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/05/15/cngold15.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/05/15/ixcity.html

:schwitz bloody Monday

mama mia

15.05.2006, 22:08

mama mia

16.05.2006, 08:10

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver
Get Slammed; Grandich Comments

Gold rose near $720 in Asia, plummeted near $685 at the close of trade in Asia and open of trade in
London, and traded in a range between $685 and $700 for the rest of trade in London and for most of
morning trade in New York, but it then fell under $680 in afternoon New York trade before a small rally
into the close took it off its lows of the session. Silver followed a similar pattern and lost 6.26% to top
gold’s 3.79% loss.
Euro gold fell near •530, platinum lost $36 to $1,274 to fall from all-time highs, palladium lost $24 to
$363, and copper fell over 20 cents near $3.60.
Gold and silver equities dropped markedly at the open and remained near their lows throughout trade to
end with losses of about 7%.
From Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter:
“After 22 years in and around the financial services industry and enough losses to know I must put my
pants on one leg at a time like the rest of us, I stopped believing I could time markets on a consistent
basis. However, last Thursday, technical analysis work I do that dates back to before the 1987 stock
market crash, produced the biggest overbought reading ever for copper, gold and silver. It was so
compelling that I felt I owed it to my readers to alert them of it and the belief that a very substantial
correction could occur literally in a matter of hours (Please read http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/
1147363320.php )

Since then, a sharp correction has apparently begun. The $64,000 question is, will it be another couple
day wonder and on to new highs, or a more meaningful decline that lasts weeks or even months? I’m
sorry to say that I don’t have a solid answer. What I can say is:
· The secular bull market in gold has so far eaten up and spit out any and all who have claimed the
end was here.
· It has corrected just enough to remove itself from the front pages before charging on again to
new heights.
· All the fundamental factors that have made me so bullish remain. The only two factors that have
changed are the metals are no longer cheap and my aggressive bullishness is no longer clearly
a minority viewpoint.
I believe the above is the bottomline good news. The not so good news is:
· The easy money is over. The crowd has finally awoken but the “Johnny-come-latelys” who piled
on in the last few weeks may need to be washed out before we can pick up where we left off
prior to gold being front-page news.
· There’s a strong chance that we will need to work our way lower after the natural rebound we
should see into tomorrow and Wednesday. Friday’s weekly close is one of the more important
ones in quite some time.
· If there are indeed forces who have manipulated and/or capped the precious metals market and
haven’t already been killed or maimed, they are all but certainly going to use this hiccup and hope
to turn it into a whooping cough, in hopes of salvaging some serious losses.
What’s the best course of action?
· Decisions made in very emotional times tend not to be our best choices. Turn off the computer
and TV, take a long walk and try to remember what your plan was just a few days ago and ask
yourself if some serious fundamental changes occurred that warrant action or would any actions
you take just be in reality a way of releasing the stress?
· If you realize you really didn’t have a solid plan that took into account the potential negatives, get
one ASAP. The volatility witnessed these last couple of days is going to be around more often as
we move into the more speculative and mature nature of this secular bull market.
· The ultimate crime in investing is not being wrong (trust me) – it’s staying wrong.

Stay tuned.

http://www.grandich.com/docs/gold.seek_05-15-06.pdf

mama mia

16.05.2006, 09:09

...das war auch nicht eben hilfreich :rolleyes ;)

NewsTrack
Mongolia's new mining tax raises hackles
ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, May 15 (UPI) -- Energy and mining companies operating in Mongolia were scrambling Monday to learn details of a newly passed windfall profits tax.

The Asian nation's parliament passed the bill late Friday night, much to the displeasure of foreign companies that have made big investments in the country, in part because of its heretofore benign tax environment.

No formal text of the new bill had been released by early Monday, but reports indicated the government would impose a tax beginning at 68 percent when copper prices reach $2,600 a metric ton and when gold prices hit $500 an ounce.

Canada's Ivanhoe Mines wrote a letter to Mongolian officials complaining of the late-night action.

"We are surprised and disappointed that legislation might be passed without consultation with the industry and that a lack of openness and transparency seems to have marked the process," Ivanhoe's letter stated.

Meantime, Ivanhoe and other operators were trying to obtain a copy of the bill passed Friday night.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060515-033932-6273r

mama mia

16.05.2006, 12:05

Gold Mining Stocks and the Current Sell Off in the Metals

Kenneth J. Gerbino
Archives
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
May 16, 2006

This is not the final blow off for gold but could be a major consolidation and pullback that could last from two months to two years (like 1974-76).
.
Gold mining dehedging will be a stabilizing factor for gold as many companies try and close out horrible hedge book positions and cover. This will be a strong influence to halt any major price declines.
.
Since all the metals are getting hit hard at the same time, this appears to be big fund action and now momentum players will follow and exit.
.
If there is any central bank that wanted to add some gold to the kitty without upsetting their colleagues they will show up in the next few weeks or months.
.
The gold correction should be looked at from two basic global technical aspects.
.
1) Using a base of approx. $400 gold for all of 2004, one could expect a 33% retrenchment of the move to $700. 33% of this $300 move would be $100. So a target here would be $600 gold.
.
2) Using the shorter term base of 2006 (Jan-March of approx $570) then the move to $700 would be $130 and using a short term 50% retrenchment (due to the short term nature ) would be $65 or a target of $635. These numbers work for traders as well as jewelry buyers in Asia and India. So a $600-635 price target may be reasonable.
.
The major move in gold will occur years from now when inflation is everywhere and at very high levels (8-12%) and people from China, France, the U.S. and other countries are stampeding into gold. The last few years are only the first leg of gold catching up with toothpaste, donuts and coffee. The big move is coming later.
.
Major mining companies are in acquisition mode and this is a long term bullish sign as these players are extremely conservative and rarely speculate (as opposed to small exploration companies) ABX taking over PDG. Teck-Cominco merger and now Teck-Cominco going after Inco. There are others. They know the supply-demand equation for the metals is long term very favorable.
.
The dollar needed a rest from its 8% sell off in the last 10 weeks and is rallying. Gold is responding to this. The other base metal sell offs are more likely to respond to other factors and that is why this coordinated selling is most likely fund driven and many funds are new to this arena... so expect plenty of volatility.
.
50-day moving averages will probably bring in some support. I would suggest that long term investors in this sector protect profits, raise some cash and remain at least 60% invested as we are still in a bull market in the precious metals. But caution is advised. All metals are very pricey. The easy stuff is over.
.
A hard look at 1974-76 would be a smart thing to do. This was a tough time for gold and the mining shares but it was only a rest from the 1968-73 run up and a prelude to the blast off from 1976 to 1980. This may be a re-run.
.
Remember gold mining stocks that can mine gold at $250 gold or lower make fortunes at even $500 gold... so don't throw out the baby with the bath water just because a much-needed correction is now showing up.
Please visit our website for more articles on gold, the economy and stock market.

May 15, 2006
Kenneth J. Gerbino

Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management
9595 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 303
Beverly Hills, California 90212
Telephone (310) 550-6304
Fax (310) 550-0814
E-Mail: kjgco@att.net
Website: www.kengerbino.com

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino051606.html

mama mia

16.05.2006, 13:04

Gold and Silver Market Updates

Clive Maund
May 16, 2006

Gold

The growing risk of a snapback rally by the dollar, highlighted as a danger in the big article on the site at the weekend and in the last Gold Market update, became reality today, precipitating a bloodbath in gold and silver and Precious Metals stocks. As pointed out to me by fundamental analyst Claude in California this development was rendered virtually inevitable by the accelerating rise in long-term interest rates. The action in the dollar today is not regarded as a "one-day wonder" but rather is believed to signal an intermediate trend reversal.

Many of you will have read in various articles on the internet in recent months about how gold has become "decoupled from the dollar". For sure, gold can outperform on occasion to the extent that it actually rises when the dollar rises, but how can it become decoupled from the dollar when it is priced in this currency? - the notion is ludicrous, and those who fell for this absurd argument will have found out the hard way today that it is nonsense.

So, if the dollar is now reversing to commence an intermediate uptrend from its current deeply oversold position, what does it mean for the Precious Metals? It means an intermediate reaction, of course, from their current overbought position. The market started to appreciate this reality today and the exits were jammed by frightened speculators running for cover.

Let's now examine the action on this cuspal day on the charts, which require little commentary, as the action is self-explanatory.

The dollar chart shows the strong rebound today from a deeply oversold condition, made dramatically obvious by the RSI and MACD indicators at the top and bottom of the chart.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund051606/1.gif After a long, steep, orderly uptrend, resulting in an extremely overbought condition, the ground opened up beneath gold today, assisting those who had lost touch with reality to reacquaint themselves with it. The answer to the question as to whether this drop is a "one-day wonder" is a corollary of the answer to the same question for the rise in the dollar - no, it is believed to signal an intermediate reaction.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund051606/2.gif The prospect of a lengthy reaction by gold is given added weight by the look of many gold stock charts. An extreme example is provided by Goldcorp, where traders didn't just jam the exits, but were climbing over each over in their haste to get out. The rot had set in on Friday, and volume swelled to a massive 16 million shares today as it plunged 9.7%. Others large golds fell on heavy turnover.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund051606/3.gif Our Newmont put options recommended at the weekend rose by about 70% today as Newmont crashed support at the $55 level. This sort of action in the large golds is bearish over an intermediate timeframe, and possibly longer depending on subsequent developments. However, a very important point to keep in mind is that gold mining stocks had presaged a breakdown in the metals for some weeks, by seriously underperforming them, a point made by the following chart which was posted on the site at the weekend. The implication of this is that mining stocks will probably hit bottom some time before the metals do.

After today's dramatic plunge, a partial recovery is considered likely that should last at least a day and possibly several days. Such a rally should be used by traders to lighten positions and/or load up with put options in weaker large golds such as Newmont, to either take advantage of further retreat, or to insulate existing long positions in the sector from major losses. We will be highlighting the most effective put options in large golds on the site in coming days.

Silver

The jury has returned its verdict - "Silver has double-topped with its April highs". So silver bulls can forget about any new highs for a while. Although silver has powerful bullish forces underpinning it, the same factors that are set to precipitate an intermediate reaction in gold, principally a rally in the dollar, are expected to have a similar effect on silver, although due to the strength of the bullish forces at work in silver, it is considered more likely that a trading range will develop, lasting perhaps several months.

On the 6-month chart we can see the phoney break higher on Thursday, that failed to take the price well clear of the April highs, and the reaction on Friday that accelerated dramatically today, as the metals had the rug pulled out from under them by today's snapback rally in the dollar, mentioned as a growing probability in the big article on the site at the weekend.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund051606/4.gif Given the severity of today's drop, especially in gold, it is quite likely that we will see a minor rally over the next day or two, which traders should use to sell, with a view to repurchasing in the $12 area, where there is strong support bolstered by the proximity of the 50-day moving average.

May 15, 2006
Clive Maund

Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Clive+Maund)
email: support@clivemaund.com
website: www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/)

Clive Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from the Society of Technical Analysts, Cambridge, England. He now lives in Chile.

Visit his subscription website at clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/). [You can subscribe here (https://www.clubcyrus.com/clive/subscribe.php)].

No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Copyright ©2003-2006 CliveMaund. All Rights Reserved.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund051606.html

mama mia

16.05.2006, 20:58

May 16, 2006 SNIPPET: Stay Focused On The Golden Ring.

Since none of you readers have sent me a bottle of Cognac for any of the past 8 Christmases that I have been writing this FREE newsletter, I thought long and hard about kicking my feet out of bed at 6:00 am this morning just to provide you with some periodic dewdrops of Sage Wisdom. But since visitor traffic to this site swells around the end of the month with freeloaders looking to glean some tidbit that will turn their $5,000 bullion investment into $1,000,000 in a matter of months, I sometimes (but hardly ever!) take pity on their plight. Greed and impatience have done more to compromise more investment strategies than probably any natural occurrence of any asset market.

INVEST FOR THE LONG-TERM, DON'T LEVERAGE YOUR POSITIONS UNLESS YOU GET FREE PROZAC, AND LIQUIDATE FUNDAMENTALLY UNSOUND INVESTMENTS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND ONES.

By "unsound" I mean most stocks, bonds, real estate, and any other asset that depends on healthy economic growth, a sound financial system, modest inflation, low interest rates, a stable Dollar, and historically low prices. See, in just one sentence I can head back to bed! If you concentrate on just the fundamental reasons for owning an asset, and not get all wrapped up on trying the beat the market, taking short-term gains cause you can, and over-analyzing exit and entry points, you will do very, very well IN THE LONG TERM.

Maybe I will stick to teal-colored text in this issue, since that is the color of my retinas right now. BY LONG-TERM, AND TAKE THIS DOWN, I MEAN THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS.

If you think that the fundamental reasons for owning precious metals are going to melt away with the Lever Pullers in Power (LPP's) having solved most of the massive STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS that exist in the U.S. and the world in the next several years, THINK AGAIN. It could easily take 20 years to get the United States back on a firm financial footing and that means a Dollar backed by something more than just a promise to pay. You are seeing history in the making in this CURRENT EXTREMELY FRAGILE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC PERIOD.

Okay, I am going back to Gray, since the world is really not Black & White in one's ability to comprehend its working, but a shade of this and that.

Remember O' Impatient Ones that when you sell physical gold and silver and palladium and platinum to lock in an intermediate gain, you have the privilege of paying Uncle Sam 15% to 28% on a Long-Term Capital Gain (or higher if you sell within a year of purchase!!!). So when you hit the re-entry price right on the money (1 in 10 Million chance of doing so), you will only have 85% to 72% of the net proceeds from sale dollars to reinvest after you send the April 15th check to Uncle Sam. Where is that money going to come from? The cookie jar? You are going to have to liquidate another asset, even if it is a CD, at likely an inopportune time for that asset market, in order to maintain the same dollar level of investment in the precious metals. This is hardly theory, this is reality! TRADING OF PHYSICAL BULLION IS IMPRACTICAL, COSTLY, AND SUBOPTIMAL FROM AN INVESTING STANDPOINT.

Not only do you risk hernia, AND WCM ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR PHYSICAL INJURY DUE TO IMPROPER LIFTING BY CLIENTS OF ANY OF OUR BULLION PRODUCTS (individual product weights are clearly disclosed on our websites!), but provides meager incremental profits ...... if any at all. What you are missing in the supposition that you can beat the market's long-term results by trading is that you will have to come close to the interim high on selling and close to the interim low on repurchasing 70% of the time. THE ODDS ARE STRONGLY AGAINST YOU IN THIS SUPPOSITION.

If you cannot go another day without trading, do it with paper instruments. They are much easier to lift, package, and ship, but you will still have the privilege of paying Uncle Sam IF YOU GUESS RIGHT. I will never recommend any paper instrument related to the precious metals (so don't ask me for any free advice on same!), not only because I strongly believe many instruments will default in some fashion over the next 5 years, but I am not in the business of doing so. I am in the business of buying and selling Tangible Assets: U.S. Rare Coins, Precious Metals Bullion, and Fancy Colored Diamonds. I firmly believe in the long-term success of these assets that are totally outside of the financial markets and negatively correlated to them. I have personally learned over 30 years plus of investing that my best investment results were obtained when I held an asset the longest possible period of time. (And I wore myself out in trading positions with just the accounting work alone.)

For instance, I have a specialized U.S. rare coin collection that will go to auction this Fall. Most of the coins were acquired in early 1998 when the rare coin market had trouble giving material away. That is over 8 years ago, and for the first 5 years I watched the collection do virtually nothing, if not go down in price during certain early periods. I am not sure at all what my net long-term total appreciation will be, but anticipating a continued frenzy of buying in U.S. rare coins partially due to the super bull market in gold and silver, I expect that as much as 25% of the total appreciation will occur between now and September- October. This may be wishful thinking, but not unreasonable given the nature of markets, especially during rarified periods. We are in one of those rarified periods of history where normal assumptions about price behavior of assets goes out the window as being too conservative. To sell too early may be the greatest sin going forward (other than trading one's butt off), but I am realigning my investment portfolio to put more emphasis in other tangible asset areas. Plus I am over-weighted in U.S. rare coins, having put significant sums into that area beginning in July, 1997 when it was hardly fashionable to do so.

And it is really not fashionable (yet) to put money into precious metals. I would still venture to say that less than 5% of the U.S. investing population has any investment dollars in gold/silver/platinum-group assets, and it will take $850 gold to get to 10% of the population. People love to buy around old highs, because that is where they are finally convinced that the asset has prospects for even higher prices. And paying $850 for Gold and even $50 for Silver will not be too much in this SuperNova Bull Market.

Where do I think Gold and Silver will go now in 2006 and early 2007? The Sage now thinks that we will see $1,000 Gold and $20 Silver sometime during the First Quarter of 2007. The U.S. Dollar is entering a period of near-collapse, inflation is just beginning to accelerate, commodity prices will stay high due to emerging economies in Asia, Central Banks of note such as China are now selling Dollar assets to diversify (partially into GOLD), the economy is rolling over due to excessive debt and satiated demand, and the oars of leadership are all being pulled in diverse directions with the Ship of State spinning in circles. National Guard at the southern border? Heck, send in Special Ops training platoons. What about some of those femme-loving alligators from Florida??? Put warning flags on top of their amphibian heads in Spanish and watch the water crossings go to zero. But I digress and we are actually paying people to solve these immigration, a.k.a. "invasion", problems.

But "Oh, Omnipotent Sage" you ask, so I can show the wifie or husbandie how brilliant I am at timing entry points into the bullion market, "what about the blasted SHORT-TERM???" Since I have not had breakfast yet or even my first cup of Java, my very little brain cells, in both count and individual size, may not be up to snuff yet, but in the interest of entertainment: How about a short-term low in Gold of only $650.05 and a short-term low in Silver of $12.35478. Of course if I really knew the answer I wouldn't tell you, hoarding this insider knowledge so I could corner the markets and retire to Iceland 10 years sooner than planned. I have bought my own hot springs there to heat my modest hut until the lights go out. Gold will hold up better because the central banks are quietly buying back that which they just sold over the last two decades, and silver will pull back a tad more on a percentage basis because it is a thinner trading market and had a more spectacular run of late.

Your guarantee for me being right is equal to the price of this ezine. But then we go to new interim highs of $850 on Gold and $17 on Silver before you can call your bullion broker to get back in.

It is after 8 am and I have to go make a buck instead of just writing how one could make a buck. In the LONG-TERM, and now that that phrase is burned indelibly into your foreheads today so YOU WILL NOT FORGET, GOLD WILL GO TO $2,500 AND SILVER TO $75. Since the inflation-adjusted high of Gold is really $2,100 putting the 1980 high into 2006 Dollars (heaven forbid!), $2,500 per ounce may well prove to be conservative. As for Silver, $75 to $100 per ounce may be more realistic, but I will end here with you on the edge of your seats and frantically calling your stock broker, your bond broker, and your real estate broker to sell everything!

Not only do we have the fundamentals improving daily for higher and higher prices in the precious metals, but we have more and more constraints on supply that we did not have 10 and even 20 years ago. There is not an infinite supply of gold and silver in old Mother Earth, and rising energy costs of extraction, labor strife, mine nationalizations, increased environmental standards, and poor mining practices virtually guarantee even more constraints going forward. More on that perhaps at a later time after some of you freeloaders have put a dime in the WCM tin cup by actually placing an order for WCM bullion, rare coin, or diamond products. I am not totally altruistic in writing this free ezine. As a famous discount clothier often says, "AN EDUCATED CONSUMER IS OUR BEST CUSTOMER".

After seeing a DVD movie on the Great Depression a month ago, I can only say: "Hey Buddy, can you spare a dime?" Hard times ahead. Hard assets only will endure.

Hey StarBucks, make that a double Mocha Latte with a peppermint stick (and throw in a shot of Cognac when no one is looking).

http://www.goldsilverbullion.com/BullionMarketInsights.htm

mama mia

17.05.2006, 09:09

...nur eine MomenAufnahme ;) ein Fressen für DayTraders :)

mama mia

17.05.2006, 10:15

merci :verbeug

Gata Soldiers Don't Capitulate Or Desert !! http://www.goldseitenforum.de/images/goup.gif (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:self.scrollTo%280,0%29;)
Sorry, aber wer verkauft hat in den letzten drei Tage ist selber Schuld.
Man hat ihn reingelegt !

Gruss

Eldo

GO GATA!

At one point this morning, this was to be my MIDAS headline:

The Gold Cartel Should Be Put in Jail And The Key Thrown Away

After yesterday’s traumatic drubbing, the early trading on the Comex was classic … as margin calls had to be met … and woozy longs thought twice about staying that way. Thus gold went from $2 and change higher to 70 cents lower minutes before the opening, paving the way for more nervous liquidation.

Then a mini-bomb hit for that very same Gold Cartel and gold shorts. Yesterday’s news was dollar and interest rate bearish, not the sort of news to bury a so-called bubble … at least as far as the gold pundit world should be concerned. Yesterday’s move down was orchestrated by an increasingly worried Orwellian banking crowd … one which extends outside the US to England.

So today the whammy for this crowd increased with a surprisingly poor US housing number and a soaring inflation number:

08:30 Apr Housing Starts reported 1.849M vs. consensus 1.95M; Building Permits 1.984M vs. consensus 2.04M
Prior Starts revised to 1.996M from 1.96M; prior Permits revised to 2.097M from 2.06M.
* * * * *

08:30 Apr PPI reported 0.9% vs. consensus 0.8%; ex-Food & Energy 0.1% vs. consensus 0.2%
Prior PPI unrevised from 0.5%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised from 0.1%.
* * * * *

The dollar weakened slightly on the news (euro rallying 25 points), but the biggest impact was on gold and silver which firmed up immediately in fast market conditions.

What we have here:

*Generally accepted concern over a US housing market which has begun to fall out of bed. There is nothing more illiquid an investment than a home in a falling price environment … at least as far as getting the price the seller believes is warranted. The first phase of a housing market downdraft is usually benign … and the seller can live with a little disappointment. However, when the prices continue to sink and the availability of homes grows, a certain amount of panic and serious disappointment sets in. This will be especially prevalent this go around because many Americans took advantage of adjustable rate mortgages and only put down 10 or 20%. If US interest rates continue to rise as prices shrink, it will freak a number of homeowners out as their primary investment goes underwater.

*Both these homeowners and all Americans are faced with growing inflation, the one which really counts. The silliest Planet Wall Street stuff is to listen to their economist propagandists point to the US core inflation number, as the real number soars. It is really beyond silly because day after day we hear about Americans lamenting the high energy costs … lamenting so much it rivals their concerns over the Iraq War. That being the case, how can the Planet Wall Street crowd continue to crow over the benign inflation numbers in the US? It is ludicrous and this hypocritical rah-rah Wall Street rant has grown very weak … and is not holding much water these days … certainly not with the general public.

*Thus, the Fed has to be concerned about the deteriorating housing situation in the US, while having to deal with a REAL growing inflation problem. They are between a rock and a hard place … as well as between Iraq and a hard place.

*As for gold, you have:

A surging yearly supply demand deficit of greater than 1500 tones per year … with mine supply on the wane around the world.
An enormous, and unprecedented, short position of many thousands of tones. This short position is underwater by $300 per ounce and more. Many of these shorts are becoming increasingly desperate.

While the demand for physical gold is surging, the shorts are doing what they can to cover. Their problem is they are all competing against one another … they being the hedgers, Gold Cartel bullion bankers, and writers of options over the years. That is impossible at these low price levels in a market with such an extreme natural supply/demand deficit.
There ought to be an investigation into what The Gold Cartel is doing to the gold shares after what I saw today. Gold was on the upswing when the US stock market opened. The shares came out of the box firm with the HUI rising to 350.50, up over 7 points. However, then gold began to really make a move and shot up over $8. BAM, the shares began to plummet in straight down fashion. It wasn’t long before the HUI was down on the day.

This selling kicked in not long after the PM Fix was concluded … one which revealed aggressive physical market pricing due to surging demand after yesterday’s plunge … which took the gold price up to $692. This is a continual travesty. You are being ripped off by a bunch of bullying crooks who are fighting for their gold financial market lives.

It is now 9:45 CDT and the HUI is down .53 with gold up $6.90.

During this blatant Gold Cartel assault on the gold shares (to calm down increasing excitement over the bullion price recovery) the price of oil dropped from up 35 cents to down 35 cents. A drop in the price of oil is bullish for the gold shares, not bearish!

You have to wonder if an unwarranted drop in the gold shares isn’t like the old Indian smoke signals as a sign The Gold Cartel forces should start leaning on bullion?

The HUI at 10:09 is now down 4.70 and gold is only up $3.40. The Gold Cartel ploy is working for the moment. Meanwhile, the DOW is HIGHER!

The Gold Cartel knows if gold rallies today it will negate their entire effort yesterday, as it will show all those looking at gold how weak the short’s position really is. Since they were having trouble with the physical market this morning, which was devastating their position, they went into Plan B, or sell the shares mode.

mama mia

17.05.2006, 19:46

...tja was soll man sagen :rolleyes Momentaufnahmen :o

mama mia

17.05.2006, 20:01

The death throes of the scumbags

Richard Daughty
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru

May 17, 2006

...............And the reason a lot of people don't do that may be for the same reason quizzical reader Roberta R. wonders about when she writes "I am writing to you about the paradigm of cashing in gold for fiat (money). I firmly believe in holding hard assets such as gold or silver; but what I have always had a hard time with is the concept of cashing in the gold. As you stated in your editorial, the Reichmark collapsed so far down that it took 87 trillion of them to buy an oz. of Au.

"This is where my brain begins to hurt. Now I am the proud owner of 87 trillion Reichmarks (FRN's) and maybe I can buy a couple loaves of bread. So, you cash out something with a real intrinsic value and you get fiat junk. But it just seems to me that you are back to square one the minute you sell."

She finished with "Working on a headache, Roberta."

I was happy to tell her that she was exactly right! She WAS back to square one! That's the beauty of gold! The answer why is contained in the problem: How much gold does it take to buy one loaf of bread, which costs $2 a loaf when gold is at $700 an ounce? Answer: 1/350th of an ounce. (You can buy 350 loaves of bread with one ounce of gold).

And then how much gold does it take to buy a $200 million loaf of bread when gold is at $87 trillion per ounce? Answer: 1/435,000th of an ounce! You can buy 435,000 loaves of bread with one ounce of gold! Hahaha! A little tiny flake of your gold ounce ought to do it! Hahaha!

So, Roberta, thanks to gold, your buying power has been preserved. THAT'S the beauty of the stuff! And in this particular example, you actually got wealthier, as bread became over 1,000 times cheaper in terms of gold! But notice that the bread cost 100 million times more, in terms of dollars!................

***Mogambo sez: The recent $22 plunge in gold and $2 plunge in silver is just the death throes of the scumbags who have engineered the huge short interest in metals futures, and are now being choked to death by it. Every dip like that is Lady Fate smiling on you, letting you buy gold and silver at a temporary bargain! Whee! Lucky you!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty051706.html

love him :supi:kiss

mama mia

17.05.2006, 23:46

Längerfristige Aussichten für HUI-Index und DAX

[ Börse & Wirtschaft: Elliott-Wellen-Forum (http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/index.htm) ] Geschrieben von ---Elli--- am 17. Mai 2006 23:00:40:

Während die Elliott-Muster beim Gold nicht so eindeutig sind, sind sie es aber beim HUI-Index.
Hier sind meine Zählung und Aussicht:

http://www.elliott-waves.com/forum/elli/060517hui-m.gif

Welle 5 war - wie bei einem Commodity-Index typisch - sehr lang (länger als Welle 1 und 5 zusammen, auch logarithmisch) und sieht nun "fertig" aus.

Obwohl, es ist nicht auszuschließen, dass die 5 der 5 der 5 noch etwas höher geht, bevor der gesamte Impuls seit Ende 2000 komplett ist.

Aber: Selbst wenn - dieser gesamte Impuls (bisher 5 1/2 Jahre aufwärts; Welle 1 auf übergeordneter Ebene) wird "angemessen" von einer Welle 2 korrigiert werden. Und eine Korrektur 2 korrigiert üblicher Weise 62 % einer vorangehenden 1, geht aber mindestens zur vorherigen Welle 4 der nächst-niedrigeren Wellenebene zurück, und das ist die blaue 4, die etwa den Preisbereich von 95 bis 155 umfasst. Üblich als Ziel ist der untere Bereich der vorhergehenden 4, also knapp 100. Typische Dauer: ca. 3 Jahre.

In einem eher starken Markt (und Gold ist m. E. einer) ist auch die Korrekturrelation von 38 % nicht unüblich für eine 2 - und gleichzeitig die vorherige Welle 4 auf der zweit-nächst-niedrigeren Wellenebene als Korrekturziel. Hier also die grüne 4, die etwa den Bereich von 170 bis 250 umfasste. Auch hier wäre das untere Ende der 4 typischer (ca. 170), während die 38 % bei etwa 160 liegen.

Also: Die Korrektur 2 wird mindestens 160 - 170 erreichen, evtl. auch 120 - 90 Punkte.

Aus diesem Grund habe ich auch am 22.04. im Abo den Ausstieg aus Hecla empfohlen:

http://www.elliott-waves.com/forum/elli/060422hl-m.gif

Hecla heute (aktueller Chart):

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1147894478015?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NYSE:HL&Interval=D&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

Die gute Nachricht zu den Minen lautet aber: NACH der Korrektur 2 kommt erst die noch fettere 3 aufwärts. Und dann muss man vermutlich schwindelfrei sein.

Diese Mega-3 werden aber viele - wie üblich - verpassen bzw. erst am Ende erkennen, denn die kommende 2 wird alle die, die gerade über beide Ohren überzeugt sind, dass der Goldpreis eine Einbahnstraße ist, frustriert stehen lassen.
alles zu sehen: http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/354486.htm (http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/354486.htm)

mama mia

18.05.2006, 15:09

:verbeug

habt ihr gewusst? :eek

May 18, 2006

A Tale from Weimar Germany
by Roland Watson

http://safehaven.com/images/pixel.gifMost readers will be familiar with the great hyperinflation of Weimar Germany. Indeed, it is often held up as the icon of what can go drastically wrong when government throws off all restraint as regards to the production of fiat money. I do not need to labour the point much as to how billions and then trillions of marks were literally not worth the paper they were printed on and how workers had to be paid by the hour lest their wages rapidly lost purchasing power in the brief time between being paid and spending that same money.

http://safehaven.com/images/watson/5188_a.jpg

As ever, gold and silver proved to be safe havens from the ravages of inflation. Indeed, anything other than the mark seemed to a good place to park one's wealth. In those days, that could be anything from bedpans to US dollars to precious metals. However, depending on one's accumulated wealth, gold and silver were amongst the top assets in terms of holding and transporting wealth. Despite this, one set of figures and one notable week in the life of Weimar Germany demonstrated that one particular form of wealth proved to be in particularly heavy demand.

Thanks to an article by Rob Kirby (http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=5039) that listed the increasing value of gold and silver in terms of German marks, I was able to plot a couple of graphs. The chart of the price of silver and gold over the period from January 1919 to November 1923 shows the rapidly deteriorating value of the Mark. For those having trouble counting the zeroes, gold went from 170 marks per ounce in 1919 to 87 trillion marks per ounce about five years later.

http://safehaven.com/images/watson/5188_b.gif

Likewise silver went from 12 marks to nearly 544 billion marks per ounce. The next step was to see how the gold-silver ratio performed over this period and that is where the surprise came as we can see below. For practically all of that five-year period, gold and silver faithfully followed the historic range between 14.17 and 16.10 with one temporary blip to 27 in September 1921. But, lo and behold, the ratio leapt to 160 on the week beginning October 23rd 1923 and stayed there till our price record ends on November 30th 1923! :eek

What was going on here? Was there an error in the gold price data? Perhaps an extra zero had been accidentally introduced thus skewing the numbers. I queried Rob Kirby on this but we both agreed that the numbers were correct.

http://safehaven.com/images/watson/5188_c.png

This left an obvious mystery, why would gold suddenly become ten times more expensive than silver in very short measure? The only clue was to look at the timeline of Weimar Germany during 1923 and the truth became quickly evident. The timeline below is taken from Wikipedia (see link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Timeline#1923))

October 6, 1923 Dr. Gustav Stresemann (People's) forms 2nd cabinet
October 20, 1923 General Alfred Mueller marches on Saxony to prevent a communist takeover. Also:
General Otto von Lossow in Bavaria is relieved of command by Berlin; he refuses.
October 23, 1923 Communist takeover of Hamburg
October 25, 1923 Hamburg uprising suppressed
November 8, 1923 Beer Hall Putsch
November 9, 1923 Beer Hall Putsch quelled.
November 12, 1923 Dr. Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht was named "Reichswaehrungskommissar".
November 15, 1923 Rentenmark issued; pegged to the Gold Standard; Rentenmark 4.2 = 1 US dollar; at this time:
Old Reichsmark 4,200,000,000 = 1 US dollar

On October 23rd, the communists began an uprising in Hamburg. With memories of the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 still fresh in the memories of Germans, this must have set alarms bells furiously ringing. Was Weimar Germany about to go the way of Tsarist Russia? The message racing through the minds of many a panicked German must have been "Get out of here!" and spare no expense in doing so!

Tales of mass executions and the often violent expropriation of wealth by Lenin and his cohorts surely would have focused the minds of wealthy Germans on getting their wealth changed into a form that was easily transportable and that could only mean gold. With an equivalent amount of silver weighing about sixteen times as much, it seems quite apparent that demand for gold skyrocketed whilst other forms of tangible but more cumbersome wealth were traded in for gold to the extent that people were prepared to give up 90% of their assets to accommodate this dectupling of the gold price. It must have been a desperate frame of mind that bid gold up to such feverish prices.

As it happened, less fraught people who traded one ounce of gold for 160 ounces of silver probably made a killing as the Germany nation finally stabilized into some semblance of normality. One wonders how such trading in gold and silver fared as another form of socialism - National Socialism - began to cast its shadow across the land. Doubtless, that is a tale for another time.

Roland Watson (tiny@cogitate.freeserve.co.uk)
http://www.newerainvestor.com/ (http://www.newerainvestor.com/)

ein argument, der fraglos für gold spricht........ :rolleyes

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=920716#post920716)

mama mia

18.05.2006, 15:26

http://www.321gold.com/images/links.gif (http://www.321gold.com/links.html) http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/hats.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)US$: Revolt, Downgrade & Disorder

by Jim Willie CB
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)"
May 17, 2006

For specific detailed analysis of the Gold, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and Fed monetary policy, see instructions for subscription to my newsletter research reports, which include stock recommendations positioned to rise in the commodity bull market. Articles in this series are promotional.

Anyone who cannot detect rumblings with more magnitude than early volcanic tremors is brain dead, plain and simple. For a full year, the USDollar enjoyed a sizeable counter-trend bounce. It relieved the long-term oversold condition. In usual times, in typical markets, such a period of time would offer the fundamentals an opportunity to catch up, for the remedy to work its medicine, for the condition to heal itself. In the case of the USDollar, the trade deficit worsened. The Jan2005 trade deficit was a grandiose $58.3 billion, pretty doggone rotten. By Jan2006, a full twelve months for the "fix" to take hold, to work through the system, the trade deficit had ballooned to a shocking, yawning $68.6 billion, as nothing but more metastasis flowed their the body economic. Our Pied Piper 'Sir' Alan Greenspan, who skipped town before the upcoming crises, much like Robert Rubin skipped town in June2000, proclaimed the lame line that financed deficits were a sign of flexibility. Plenty of flexibility is manifested in a bank overdraft on a stretched credit line awaiting default also. The Maestro and GoldBugs should be aware, that a revolt, an insurrection, a mutiny is in progress. The greenback is being rejected, perhaps as much as the USGovt leadership is getting a global vote of "NO CONFIDENCE." Polls internal to US shores show low confidence in our leadership trio, in parallel.

THE HEGEMON, NOT POKEY-MON
In recent months a new phenomenon is unmistakable, dangerous, ominous, and so real. The world is not only sensing the unfixable nature of all things USDollar-based, it has begun to create alliances to protect itself from the US hegemon. No longer does the United States rely upon innovation, investment, and work, but rather upon attempts at "full spectrum dominance," deceptive coercion, and blatant inflation. Refer not to the pocket monster, aka pokey-mon. The hegemon is the dominant big guy who plays dirty, throws his weight around, ignores the law, and dares a reaction. No, he even retaliates in the face of warranted protective response. For those who do not understand this "hegemon" term, think of the nastiest evilest wretchedest bully who didn't just steal school lunch money, but who would kidnap your daughter to ensure debt payment in shylock setting. Think of dark shadowy men who threaten and deploy the most sinister of weapons against a perceived enemy. From the other side of the chess board, recall Georgi Markov, a Bulgarian writer thought to inspire a dissident movement against the Soviets from London. He was assassinated by a KGB agent using an implanted ricin poison capsule by means of an umbrella on a city street sidewalk.

Think of installing tyrants in foreign lands, rich in resources, for the unexpressed unsanctioned purpose of securing contracts for commodity supply to fulfill the needs of the insatiable USEconomy. Think of criminal access granted to gold miners for leasing and selling the US national gold treasure, at nil interest rate for years on end, and zippo accountability before the people's representative in Congress. Think of the IMF and pressured tactics to raise interest rates in Argentina, after putting that nation's accumulated deficits on an installment loan, then warning aristocrats to vacate their bank accounts into New York City accounts before bank closures and confiscation of accounts. My sister-in-law was such a victim. Think of heavy pressure leaned upon the Bank of Japan, to comply and to supply the West with 0% money in return for no trade tariffs whatsoever as Tokyo accumulates over $600 billion in reserves in return for the favor of open market access to US retail centers and car showrooms. Note the cries of foul when China does the same trick without a central bank for the hegemon to control. Think of disinformation and distortion of intelligence for the purpose of motivating then waging a war in a land rich in crude oil and fresh water. Think of conducting naval exercises off the coast of nations which make public statements against the USTBond and the implied coercion to recycle Asian trade surplus into bloated USTreasury Bonds. These are tactics used by a hegemon. Foreigners are very familiar with these nasty weapons, while Americans are largely ignorant of them. Remaining in the dark might be a necessary ploy in order to maintain distrust of outsiders. We are all too familiar with the tactics of the underworld crime syndicates, with much more obvious devices like murder, extortion, bombings, fires, kidnaps, hijacks, loan sharks, and basic heists. The hegemon strives to walk the fine line balancing respectability, deniability, professionalism, and diplomatic leadership, a narrow walk indeed. This hegemon is slowly being disrespected, challenged, undermined, as opponents openly plan their alliances and devices of their own making. A revolt is in progress. A scheiss storm comes.

G7 ANNOUNCED PLAZA LITE ACCORD
A new phase is about to unfold in the currency wars. The G7 Finance Ministers decided the USDollar must endure a substantial reduction. The Second Plaza Accord has begun (first was 1985) an initial phase, whereby Asian central banks are on notice to permit their currencys to rise, and European bankers will cooperate on a coordinated USDollar decline. Martin Feldstein gives intellectual cover for a more competitive (lower) USDollar. At issue is the gargantuan chronic US current account deficit (trade gap & more), but more importantly the foreign central bank lost confidence in the USDollar as the reserve currency. The US and foreigners see the problem from different vantage points, but they do share the common objective of significant US$ devaluation. My view is that the US trade deficit is structurally based and unfixable without a deep recession, and surely not by means of a currency adjustment alone. That is, unless the US$ falls by 50% or more. Entire industries have gone extinct. Formal attempts to bring down the USDollar will result very ugly serious fallout, all sure to meet opposition, none of which to find political favor. US economists expect little if any price inflation impact, a fairy tale forecast.

World finance ministers have lost confidence in the USDollar. The G7 Meeting communiqué, announcements by Japanese leaders, statements from European bankers, warnings by out of Beijing, outcries from South Korea, criticisms from Russia, agreements in Asia, even statements by the IMF, they all add up to a global banker revolt. US imbalances are not being rectified. The Russian finance minister Kudrin openly questions the USDollar as worthy, given substantial and chronically dangerous deficits. Expect a rocky several months to contain turbulence, minor panics, and some derivative accidents (likely in bonds). Chinese leaders steadily make pronouncements about the hazard to the global banking system from its USDollar foundation, cite the high risk to financial markets of big selloffs, remind of their steady grand subsidies to US consumers, and defend their slow progress in relaxing currency controls. Basically, at spoken issue is the legitimate viability of the USDollar as world reserve. USTBonds, mortgage bonds, and corporate bonds are collectively held as ransom. Asians meet among themselves, for to coordinate mechanisms on a regional monetary unit, one useful in establishing financial stability. The parallel Asian currency is device to be used for certain purposes.

Even the IMF, an organization with a near perfect track record of destroying economies through currency devaluation and interest rate hikes, now calls for the USDollar to be devalued. They believe simple currency adjustment will lead to an orderly resolution. Wow! That is downright clueless. Give me some of that stuff they're smokin'. The USEconomy has structural problems, much like a fat man missing a left leg trying to walk normally down the street. A currency fix would be akin to lengthening a leg which no longer exists. Orderly resolutions without vast consequences are next to impossible. The US banking leaders and USGovt leaders have taken us way too far astray to be called home without missing dinner. The bread crumb trail has been washed away by vast floods of liquidity from previous storm relief. It is no wonder that officials are calling for the equivalent of yet another mythical SOFT LANDING, this one for the crippled bloated USDollar. This is mythology spoken aloud, queer attempts to control markets teetering in disarray.

The G7 topic of USDollar devaluation and insurrection is discussed and analyzed in the May Hat Trick Letter issue in more detail.

WEIMAR BEN AT THE CONTROLS
Chairman Bernanke denied any "managed depreciation" in the USDollar on one end. However, intellectual cover has come from former White House economist Martin Feldstein, as he called for a more competitive US$ exchange rate, but one with domestic strength. This is an important acknowledgement, one made clearly with USGovt sanction to herald a new currency phase shift in policy. He senses urgency, hopes to improve the trade balance deficit, and addresses the housing decline and consumption threat, sure to jeopardize economic growth. His historical reference to tame price inflation seems goofy. But his is just spin, from a drafted hired gun.

Unfortunately, an orderly decline for the USDollar will be a monumental challenge, with the entire world of forces aligned against it. Leveraged instruments, heavy US debts, currency traders, foreign control of USTBonds, and the halt of self-destructive official intervention can be powerful tailwinds to assist the USDollar downhill. The gas pedal has none other than the man who has written favorably about inflation for most of his career. When a central banker has a track record of extolling the virtue of operating a monetary printing with near zero cost, the inherent national currency is in grave danger. Weimar Ben was chosen precisely because he is mad as hell and fully willing to run the press day and night in order to avoid economic and financial seizures. However, the USDollar is the pressure valve. When monetization is the device to rescue and control, no floor can be claimed on the USDollar.

The G7 topic of USFed slipped confidence and general blundering is discussed and analyzed in the May Hat Trick Letter issue in more detail.

ASIAN RIVALS JOSTLE FOR CONTROL
Japan and China jockey for control and influence, as seen in the Hyderabad India meeting of the Asian Development Bank last month. The US delegate was rendered a neutered puppy, with shallow points made and dismissed. An Asian Currency Unit (ACU) has entered policy making arenas, one to regulate Asian currency exchange rates. The ACU is expected to be used as a fulcrum of exchange rate management. Ministers from China, Japan, and South Korea met with the 13-nation ASEAN in order to come to agreement on a basket peg useful for any Asian nation to manage and fix the value of its currency within a band. This in my view is a pan-Asian currency equivalent in function to the euro currency. Regard the ACU as a device which Asia utilizes in devaluing the USDollar in unison and out of our control, a crucial device in the event of a monetary crisis. What Japanese ministers hatched and promoted, now the Chinese have taken leadership with, even somewhat heavy handed control with.

The G7 topic of Asian coordinated challenge to the US systemic dominance is discussed and analyzed in the May Hat Trick Letter issue in more detail.

DISORDER IS THE WATCH WORD
Numerous forces work in opposition to an orderly desired decline in the USDollar exchange rates. Market momentum, financial leveraged instruments, speculative investments, managed fund priorities, these are almost uniformly aligned to take advantage of and to exploit the falling USDollar. US debt engorgement is a massive orgy widely known worldwide. Currency traders nowadays are like sharks aided by leverage. Foreign central banks and their managing directors realize risks similar to conditions before the Asian Meltdown. Resistance and shedding is to follow. The notion is dawning on them that intervention to support the USDollar in quick descent might be like inviting a dozen gigantic obese cousins to dinner every single night, night in and night out. Enough is enough. No, no, this USDollar correction might turn into a rejection, then an outright revolt. Its decline will be orderly at times, but with sudden tumultuous down drafts. One must wonder to what extent international disapproval of the United States will be registered in votes against the USDollar, since votes against the US Military are dismissed.

The G7 topic of mounting worldwide disorder is discussed and analyzed in the May Hat Trick Letter issue in more detail.

ALLIANCES IN GLOBAL ENERGY WAR
Key nations are entering a dangerous new stage of worldwide energy war, with numerous fronts in conflict. Government leader behavior has begun to resemble underworld syndicates in their methods, tactics, even revealed strategies. Geopolitical forces and actions urge perceptions of the energy market to be the same as a global energy war, with governments alongside warlords controlling key regions, with military bases guarding important energy production zones (forts), with military bases constructed as toeholds in untapped energy deposit zones (new fronts), with product & pipelines used as weapons (reinforcement supply lines), with nuclear threats perceived and delivered, with counter offensives triggered in response, with high profile abductions and executions, with special operations and even mercenaries (behind enemy lines), with urgent calls for conscripted contract workers (draft), with new alliances forming against the United States axis.

The first action was the attack, occupation, and annexation of Iraq, an event which launched the global energy war. The second action was by Russian President Putin in securing by force Yukos for oil, Gazprom for natural gas, as weapons, then using them against Ukraine, Europe, and England. The nationalization of natural gas fields in Bolivia, and similar anti-investment actions in Ecuador and Venezuela emphatically confirm my viewpoint in military terms for this war. Bolivia is the largest natgas supplier in South America. Venezuela is the largest oil and energy product supplier in the region. The war has finally reached South America, home to vast copper and iron deposits, 25% of the known world copper supply. Will mines be next?

New oil exchanges are springing up like jonquils and daffodils, as they plan to sell oil not in the USDollar. Saddam did so with euros, its discontinued practice a prime motive for the Iraqi War. Sweden in euros, Iran in euros, Russia in rubles. Each nation has its own motives. Russia wants respect and control, even dominance. Iran wants a sphere of influence outside US control. Sweden wants to avoid loss from a corrosive foundation. Both Dubai and Qatar plan new oil exchanges, but presumably in USDollar transactions. The USGovt offers security to the Saudi royals and neighboring emirs (napoleons in white robes) who hog their national wealth and keep their nation impoverished. Such is a longstanding arrangement (security treaty, contract) for reliable US suppliers.

The G7 topic of global energy war and its counter-attacks is discussed and analyzed in the May Hat Trick Letter issue in more detail, actually in a Special Report.

BANK OF JAPAN & MARKET ACTION
It is perplexing. The announced hesitation for Tokyo to begin a rate hike tightening cycle is given as the main reason why commodities and their stocks declined. Let's step back a minute and think about that one. In refusing to hike rates, the Bank of Japan in essence admits that have decided to embrace very big inflation risk without a policy reaction. Instead of curtailing the yen carry trade, which is the largest financial engineering machine in modern history, they openly reassure its continuation. They admit they will continue with massive monetary inflation, not hike rates, and supply the Western financial markets with evermore money to borrow at nil interest rates. SINCE WHEN IS THEIR CONTINUED ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY BAD FOR COMMODITIES??? SINCE WHEN IS CONTINUED QUANTITATIVE EASING A HINDRANCE TO COMMODITIES???

No, no, the continued role and associated behavior by Tokyo as the Far Eastern lackey office to the US Federal Reserve is hardly negative for commodity prices at all. Instead, Asia in general will remain a strong foundation of commodity demand, a locus for speculative investment, and of strong basic demand for energy, industrial metals, and gold.

The yen carry trade is responsible for generating much of the Western world financial wealth. The carry trade speculative flow will continue in all its cancerous glory. Any discontinuance of the yen carry trade might actually cause financial seizures from fast rising US long-term interest rates!!! Furthermore, news of Tokyo reluctance to hike at all is even more credence that USFed has some excuse to halt hikes on its own, to pause. The BOJ announcement is equivalent to Little Ben's tease of a pause, yet it had the opposite market reaction. Straaaaannnge!!!

THE GOLD PRICE ACTION
Much of what we are witnessing in the past week is the annual spring selloff in commodity stocks. Also, an unstable situation developed. Gold rose from $600 to $700 in less than one month. With breaktaking leaps comes a need to catch one's breath, even for a market. Look at the old trusty 3/8-ths retracement rule for guidance, a reliable tool in my kit. In a bigger sense, the breakout in gold in March from $570 to the May $730 high would see a 60-point pullback to $670. With more short-term eyes, the breakout extension in April from $635 to the May $730 would see a 30-point pullback to $685. So one might consider a healthy correction to send gold back to the (670-685) range, provided the gold bull still is alive and strong. Fundamentals scream that the bull has many years to live, run free, even stomp down both disbelievers and obstructive participants without mercy.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie051706bjm.gif My personal view is that, given the monetary breakdown in the USDollar foundation and institutional insurrection against it, given the global energy war counter-attacks and govt warlord behavior to foment it, gold might be justified in a move somewhere between $900 and $1100 before it re-evaluates the crises in progress, the pathetic fixes in place, even the progress toward resolution. Through any reasonable person's eyes, all movement is away from remedy and toward deeper crisis, widening the gulf between reason and lunacy. The shocking ingredient is that the USGovt seems to intentionally provoke greater conflict. Given the chief US exports continue to be debts, jobs, faulty banking systems, patents, obesity, and given the principal strength of the USEconomy is military investment, foreign beach head establishment, and leverage upon governments, it seems the United States Axis has actively chosen a path toward greater chaos to secure commodity supply in an environment whereby our military strength can be utilized.

BRIEF CONCLUSION
It is hard to say how far this correction in commodity stocks might go. Surely, the mainstream press enjoys what they proclaim as the end of the bull. However, they forget that only a global recession will interrupt this commodity bull market. They forget that energy stocks were the biggest single engine in the S&P500 index last calendar year. A case in point is the strong and growing global demand for gold bullion as the USTBond erodes in confidence. A case in point is the relentless twin deficits indicative of extreme hemorrhage and foreign capital dependence. A case in point is the 20% decline in official copper inventory at the exchange warehouses, the challenge to Indonesia copper supply, the socialist (and water) threat to Andean copper supply in Peru. Sorry, but these three factors remain very much alive, either without evidence in any way, or not even addressed.

Three requirements are necessary before the commodity bull is interrupted:

1) emerging developing economies must stall in growth altogether, like China, India, Southeast Asia, including the construction boom in the Middle East
2) the multi-year USDollar decline must come to an end, in a real sense from remedy to its crippled fundamentals in astronomical trade deficits and burgeoning federal budgets
3) the imbalances whereby global commodity demand overwhelms commodity supply must find equilibrium in the midst of historically low inventories and supplies at risk.

Sorry, but none of these requirements has been met, as all are still in force.

This hegemonistic policy will ultimately backfire, with blocked supply routes and supply chains, along with a mushroom of global alliances in opposition. Its policy will fail from an insurrection in the USDollar and rejection of the USTBond (its paper observe side). My forecast from early 2005 was for the world to separate into four trade zones: Europe, Asia, Middle East, and Americas. There is far more cohesion in the three non-American zones than in our zone. Iran is the rogue within the Middle East. Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Cuba are the rogues within the Americas. Russia is the rogue within Europe. The four zones in time will produce their own single currency, as well as their own dominant commodity supply. As the months pass, shipment of commodities across zone boundaries will become increasingly problematic.

THIS PICTURE IS STILL VERY PROMISING FOR THE GOLD AND OIL BULLS !!!

THE HAT TRICK LETTER COMBINES MACRO ANALYSIS WITH INVESTMENTS.

May 16, 2006
Jim Willie CB

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/hats.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
Willie Archives
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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 24 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his website at www.GoldenJackass.com (http://www.goldenjackass.com/).

mama mia

18.05.2006, 19:12

:schwitz auch er gehört dazu :rolleyes es soll ja umfassend sein :o ;) :D

Final warning on commodities.

Dear Members,

After a nine months gap, I am back in Santa Barbara. :P

Today morning I spent sometime in meditation before writing the weekly newsletter and even though I have been recommending not trading on my recommendations for the last six weeks, I have started feeling that I am slowly getting back on track in a few areas. However, this has not yet happened in regard to currencies. I am hoping that all will fully turn around soon but till then, wait and watch.

My Guru departed when I was eight and since then, I have been walking on the path of purity according to my knowledge of right and wrong. I had not found someone who could help bring light when darkness encroached. There is someone I have known for the last three years and I was lucky to touch his feet on Friday. He is now my spiritual teacher or “Guru” and I will write more details once I get his permission.

Back to the weekly newsletter, I don’t want to write many details till I see myself 100% on track. However, there is something very important that I would like to share with you today.

A new planetary combination will occur in the next ten days, and that is not a good sign, as it could affect each and every area of the financial market.

To my knowledge, it will give indications that the trend will follow the same path without changing:

1. If any commodity or market moves down, the downward trend will remain for some few months.

2. Take an example of metals: if they start moving down, then buy back after the next two months that they bottom out and it will be a good time to buy them. This is the master key for you to make your decision accordingly once you feel and see. This could be a big turn around for your portfolio or money management, return-wise as well as risk protected-wise.

3. There will be negative news for some financial firms and it looks like a few financial scandals will break out.

4. JUNE AND JULY ARE NOT GOOD FOR BUYERS. Till now they have enjoyed whatever they have touched.

THE NEXT TWO MONTHS: In my view, this new planetary combination will affect commodities and the stock market as shown below:

METALS: They should start getting weak and negativity should start with red metals (copper) and then silver, platinum, palladium and gold. My longer term view on metals is very much optimistic from but the short term (two months) is very negative, (I see a major crash). Still those that are not really worried about a short term downward trend can hold on partly to buying position but be careful.

If what I see for metals comes true, then:

Copper should trade 50 percent down from the current price of $390;

Gold should trade twenty percent down from $710 and thirty percent down for platinum, palladium and silver. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY FROM SEP 2006 IF THEY FALL AS IN THE LONG TERM, GOLD IS GOING TO HIT $1600 AND SILVER $50.

This is not my personal feeling and I have no intention to either be against or in favour of metals or any other commodity, currency or stock market.

OIL: During the next two months, oil will be very volatile. ‘Enter and exit’ will be the right trading pattern. Oil should touch a new high in the month of June. In the next two months oil may trade in the range of $63.80 to 81.80.

CURRENCIES: During the next two months all major currencies will fall sharply against the dollar. Trading range of the dollar should be $83 to $91.

STOCK MARKET: There will be a negative trend for all major stock markets. Asian and European markets will be hard-hit. I see a 21 to 30 percent fall in these stock markets.

If any of these markets trades in the opposite direction, then it will hold on that direction, but chances of this happening are quite slim- I shall update you accordingly.

PEOPLE WITH WEAK HEARTS SHOULDN’T BE TRADING

COMMODITIES OR OTHER MARKETS FROM 18 MAY 2006. DURING THIS PERIOD, TRADERS, INVESTORS, BROKING HOUSES AND BIG FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MAY GO THROUGH THE WORST ROUGH PATCH OF THEIR LIFE TIME.

PREDICTIONS FOR 15 TO 19 MAY:

GOLD

This week gold will have mixed trade during the early week but may lose momentum as the week progresses. Though the long term trend is in favour of gold, the short term trend might not be encouraging. I mentioned in last week’s newsletter, that “On Thursday and Friday gold will move up though metal investors will experience severe volatility, which will put many buyers and sellers in to a major dilemma whether to hold metals or not.” Yes, both days were like that because sellers got scared on Thursday and the buyers on Friday.

Metal stocks will trade weak so trade accordingly. I don't want to write trading range for this week as free fall can bring any price.

SILVER/PLATINUM/COPPER/PALLADIUM

All these metals will trade weaker than gold in coming time except silver, which may move up in early July. Compared to all four metals, strength-wise, gold still looks far better IN LONGER RUN.

FOR ALL METALS:

SHORT TERM TREND - TWO WEEKS: UNCERTAIN/VOLATILE/DOWN

MEDIUM TERM TREND – THREE MONTHS: WEAK/DOWN

LONG TERM 6 MONTHS TO 2 YEARS: UP

No trading range for metals as they can have free fall.

STOCK MARKET

Last week, major Middle-East markets touched an 18 months low. It is now time for the Asian market and European market to move down. I see a great opportunity to make money selling major stock markets, though the USA market trend looks side way.

Indian stock market, DAX, FTSE, CAC, SPAIN and Swiss market look very negative and they are entering into a long term bear cycle. The South America stock market, Canadian and South African markets will also follow the same trend.

This week all major markets will trade in a cautious trend.

In the longer term, only the USA market looks okay compared to the melt down of the other markets.

FOR THE NEXT TWO MONTHS – The current time is a great opportunity to sell oil, metals, basic material stocks including copper, zinc, aluminium, platinum, palladium and steel. :rolleyes:

Longer term - Uranium, gold/silver and alternative energy will out-perform major sectors in the next three years from Sep 2006. If you remember, in 2001/2 I mentioned that gold, silver and metal stocks would out-shine other sectors and indeed we have experienced that.

OIL

During this week, oil will be volatile and may see a few days sharp rising and sharp fall. Monday and Tuesday may remain directionless or weak but rise on Thursday and Friday.

Oil will start rising after two weeks so trade accordingly.

GRAINS

During the last week corn and wheat remained in a rising trend and they moved up sharply on Friday. An interesting time is coming for grains so remain in buying for the long term trend.

This week Corn and wheat may trade side way or may move down a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday. This week is time to accumulate soybean. Wheat and corn will hit another new high during this week.

TREASURY BONDS

It is a great opportunity to buy thirty year bonds at current prices. I see a sharp rising in bond prices from 24 May but those who will accumulate at current prices will get the best returns in coming days.

CURRENCIES

Sharp fall in the dollar index is a warning to other currencies. The dollar is getting ready for a big turn around from 18th May.

It is the best time to sell Canadian dollar, Mexican Peso, Brazilian real, South African rand, Australian dollar. All these currencies won’t see these prices in near future.

From next week all currencies will fall sharply against the dollar.

COFFEE

Another one week is pending to buy coffee and those who want to acquire can go ahead and start accumulating small positions each day. Coffee prices are ready to touch $150 in the medium term trend.

COTTON

Last week cotton remained stable. During this week it should move both sides but more towards the weak side. From the end of May it will start rising.

SUGAR

I see a weak trend starting in sugar from Monday, so trade accordingly. The long term bull market may not be over soon, but a short weak trend is approaching and one should therefore partly get out from holding.

ORANGE JUICE

Orange juice will have mixed trade and should move down. However, it may still remain in a rising trend till the end of October 2006 after which it will enter into a long term bear market. The end of May and June will be a weak period for Orange Juice. It will start rising from July.

Grains, coffee, treasury bonds and cotton are in a long term rising trend.

METALS (gold/silver only) are also in a long term rising trend, but for the short term they could encounter a negative trend.

The dollar will enter into a major bull market for the medium term.

DURING THE NEXT TWO MONTHS, STRICTLY TRADE WITH STOP LOSS OTHERWISE THIS VOLATILE TIME COULD BRING DISASTER INTO THE LIVES OF MANY TRADERS.

I wish you good luck for this week.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra 13 May 2006 Sunday

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/LatestFlash.asp?Id=237&Page=1

mama mia

18.05.2006, 19:17

...das Metall scheppert :rolleyes momentan :o :D auch sonst - es gab schon angenehmere Tage ;)

mama mia

18.05.2006, 22:31

...na ja - alles ist relativ ;) :o :D

mama mia

19.05.2006, 08:38

mama mia

19.05.2006, 08:49

Posted On: Thursday, May 18, 2006
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Gold and Dollar Market Summary
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Author: Jim Sinclair
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What is being sidelined in this tax cut is the exemption of the many from the Alternative Minimum Tax. The average person never should have been subject to this tax that was originally put in place to get money out of less than a dozen outrageously rich who were not paying one nickel in taxes. When it hit the many the IRS and Treasury liked the inflow and let it go wild.

What is going to cost the US Federal Budget by reducing income is not the extension of the Bush tax cuts for the super rich, but the exemption of the many from the Alternative Minimum Tax hit. It is this that all the government commentators and media are silent on. So the formula now becomes:

Increasing costs and decreasing business activity = lower corporate profits and individual income = lower tax revenues plus exemption of the many from the Alternative Minimum Tax category = in the face of continue high spending an explosion in the US Federal budget deficit = in the face of a continuing US Trade deficit a runaway US current Account deficit = a severely lower US dollar = significantly higher gold prices = $1650 for gold!

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3601&T_ARID=3668&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=

mama mia

19.05.2006, 09:14

...ist ein ellenlanger guter Artikel - hier nur die Gold/Silber Abteilung ;)

DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
The May Newsletter
The Old Fashioned Way

Enrico Orlandini
18 May, 2006

Gold/Silver - What can I say? I gave you a price target of 728.60 on February 9th, expecting to see it hit by late summer. So much for late summer! We hit the target of 728.00 intraday on Thursday, May 11th, and then exceeded it intraday, reaching 732.00 the next day. The question is, where does the price of gold (and silver) go from here? Is the rally over? Will the long awaited correction finally make an appearance? And if so, how low is low? All good questions and, in my opinion, all quite premature! I am going to tell you the same thing here that I told you on February 9th, unless gold has undergone some here-to-fore unperceived change in character, we have not yet seen the top. It is also worth remembering that neither have we seen a close above strong resistance at 728.60! We've seen a test and we still have another test or two coming in my opinion. In the meantime, a 5% to 8% correction over a period of three to four days would be nothing out of the ordinary! That translates to a drop of +/- 60.75 and a test of good support at 671.25 in the JUNE GOLD futures contract. Such a test could easily occur without doing any technical damage to the current bullish gold picture.

Please take a look at the following Daily Chart of Gold and tell me what word comes to mind? Relentless maybe? For months now, it has consistently ground up every attempt to turn the price down:
(Chart im Anhang)

Is gold overbought? Yes! And it can stay overbought for a lot longer than you can stay solvent trying to sell it short. The current target of 728.60 is the resistance of last resort before we go after the all-time high of 887.50. Given what I have seen to date, I suspect that we will keep right on going and not stop to correct at 728.60. You can give me all the reasons you want for a correction, but the price action of gold is saying something different, and has been saying something different for months. It's just that very few people are listening and that is the biggest point in gold's favor at this point in time: everyone doubts the rise! Even my own clients doubt more often than not.

From a technical point of view, a one-day decline of $20.00 or $30.00 seems like a big deal, but at this altitude it really isn't. Right now, if gold were to decline all the way down to 650.60, nothing would change except for the pulse, heart rate, and perception of many investors. Strong support is at 644.70 and should hold under just about any foreseeable circumstance. As far as the upside is concerned, two consecutive closes above 728.60 would indicate an attack of the all-time high of 887.50 would become the order of the day. With respect to gold's orphaned cousin silver, I expect silver to follow gold to the upside for the time being. We are currently trying to deal with resistance at 14.81, and although we managed one close above it, it wasn't quite enough. Over the long run, silver will attack good resistance at 20.73 and maybe even go after 26.11 before the year is out. By the end of this decade I expect to see gold trading at US $3,000 and silver at US 164.00. The volatility to be encountered on this long and bumpy road will be too much for the average investor and very few will actually reap the rewards from such a spectacular Bull Market. Those that do manage to stick it out will be rewarded with a better life.

ganzer Artikel: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini051806.html#gold

mama mia

19.05.2006, 14:49

:verbeug

moin leute :)

Gold Correcting – Evidence Suggests More Time is needed

While gold is in a long-term bull market, a case can be made for gold continuing in its recent correction for two reasons. The first is that the rally in gold has moved in a largely unabated manner for a period of about 12 consecutive months, as shown in the long-term monthly chart for gold. Given that the price action over the last week suggests gold is in an overdue correction, it would be expected that the correction would last for a time period of more than just a few days. It is likely that it would correct over a time period of several months.

http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/images/0518.h1.gif

The second reason is the long-term action in the US dollar, where an interpretation of Elliott Wave (EW) theory is cited. As is obvious from the chart, the long term chart of the dollar is down. Yet the correction of the long term trend off of the late 2004/early 2005 bottom occurred in a 5-wave move, as labeled. According to EW, 5-waves in a corrective pattern never occurs alone. This means that there will be some more upside to the dollar. When the additional upside to the dollar will occur is by itself, yet undefined. But the recent action in the precious metals market suggests that this will occur soon.

http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/images/0518.h2.gif

In the shortest of terms (as of Wednesday evening), the US Dollar (bullish) and precious metals (bearish) seem to be confirming each other.

http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/images/0518.h3.gif http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/images/0518.h4.gif

This is further confirmed by the action in the HUI and the XAU.

http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/images/0518.h5.gif http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/images/0518.h6.gif

http://financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2006/0518.html

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=921256#post921256)

mama mia

19.05.2006, 18:28

:schwitz:schwitz:schwitz

mama mia

19.05.2006, 18:47

Clif Droke's Silver Strategies Review May 2006
Only $15!
3/6/12 month subscription available

Published May 19, 2006

Inside this month's issue...

After sending a warning signal in April and early May, our in-house internal momentum indicator for the silver shares (SS HILMO) correctly predicted the latest weakness we're now seeing across the board among the silvers. How close are we to a temporary bottom and when will the next major buy signal be given?
x
Several actively traded silver stocks are closing in on their important 200-day moving averages. Find out which ones and whether the odds favor oversold rallies or not.
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Most of our rally prospects fulfilled and even exceeded our upside expectations. In the latest newsletter we review profit-taking advice and stop-loss recommendations and review which stocks have immediate-term rally potential and which ones look to underperform.
x
An important trend signal has been flashed in our combined trend following index, comprised of the XAU gold/silver index, the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), Freeport Copper & Gold (FCX), Inmet Mining (IMN:TSX) and Platinum Group Metals (PTM:TSX). Find out what the implications are for the short-term in the gold/silver sector and what it might mean for your investments.
x
A look at one of the best short-term internal and momentum indicators for the mining stock sector.
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Editor Clif Droke, author of the best-selling "Moving Averages Simplified" and follow-up study "Stock Trading with Moving Averages," uses his expertise in this area in examining the trends and trading ranges of several actively traded silver stocks relative to the most important combination of moving averages for this sector.
x
Individual stock analysis of precious metals equities:
Apex Silver Mines
Avino Silver & Gold Mines
Cardero Resource
Coeur d'Alene
ECU Silver Mining
Endeavor Silver
Excellon Resources
First Majestic Resource
First Silver Resource
Freeport Copper & Gold
Hecla Mining
Impact Silver
Impala Platinum
Industrias Penoles
Kimber Resources
Northgate Exploration
Pan American Silver
North American Palladium
Quaterra Resource
Rio Tinto
Sabina Silver Corp.
Silver Standard Resources
Silvercrest Mines
Silver Wheaton
Sterling Mining

Buy your copy today for only $15 or better yet, receive a discount by purchasing a 3/6 or 12 month subscription!

The Silver Strategies Review is available online. An emailed text-only (no charts) version is available upon request at no extra cost. Put your request in the comments box on the order form.

IMPORTANT: Look out for the on-screen payment receipt & email giving you the online URL.

To pay online with your credit card (in real time!), or to advise us that you will be sending a check in the mail, check a box and click the green 'add to cart' button.

May 2006 issue of Silver Strategies Review $15
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Clif Droke
clif@clifdroke.com

http://www.clifdroke.com/ssr.mgi

mama mia

19.05.2006, 18:57

http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif > General Editorial (http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&RQ=AR,530369&PageType=&PRID=0) http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Posted On: Friday, May 19, 2006
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Friday Morning Action in Gold and Silver
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif

Click charts to enlarge in PDF format:

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/48723_Charts190506-001.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2939_Charts190506-1.pdf) http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/48721_Gold_05_19_06.gif (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2936_Gold_05_19_06.pdf) http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/48722_Silver_05_19_06.gif (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2937_Silver_05_19_06.pdf)
http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL, (http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3602&T_ARID=3669&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=)
1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3602&T_ARID=3669&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/PH_gr-back-btn.gif (http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3602&T_ARID=3669&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=)

mama mia

19.05.2006, 21:38

Relative Gold Bulls 2

Adam Hamilton
Archives (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm?321gold)
May 19, 2006

This past week has been rather traumatic for gold investors. Just two days after achieving dazzling quarter-century nominal highs above $720, gold had fallen 5%. Retreating prices irritate investors to no end, so there is now an increasingly vitriolic war of words underway in the contrarian community about whether we are now witnessing the early days of a full-blown correction, merely a minor pullback, or an irrelevant blip.

While my long-term gold-heavy investment portfolio is certainly feeling the pain, the speculator in me loves volatility regardless of its direction. Volatility is the lifeblood of speculation, it grants us priceless opportunities to buy low and sell high. If markets ever only rose in a slow and perfectly orderly manner, speculation would cease to exist as only investment would be possible. What a boring and dreary soul-crushing world that would be!

Investors, and indeed most folks, generally view speculators with scorn. Whenever prices move in any direction they don't like, speculators get the blame. A decade ago this used to bother me, but now I love telling people I am a speculator just to savor their reaction. After finding out what I do they'll often say something like, "So, high gas prices are your fault." To which I reply, "Darned right amigo! I own the best oil companies pumping the oil, I own the elite refineries distilling it into gasoline, and I think gas is way too cheap at $3." Perhaps this is why speculators aren't popular at cocktail parties.

In reality prices are not "the fault of" speculators. We are the most essential lubricant to the free markets, willingly putting our hard-earned capital and necks on the line time and time again to provide critical liquidity when no one else will. Who was buying gold last June (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/eg350.htm) when it languished under its 200dma and threatened to fall under $400? Speculators. Who cares if we are despised as long as we are earning huge profits!

Why am I leading off with this discussion? In the last week a pernicious campaign is taking shape to ridicule every speculator who even believes a correction in gold is merely possible. We speculators are being called idiots and morons. It is pretty funny really. The most amusing and comical part is that the opposing position, that a gold correction is impossible, is sheer lunacy based on market history. No bull markets, no matter how powerful or how compelling their fundamentals, ever advance up in an accelerating uninterrupted line.

Another new fallacious assault on speculators claims successful speculation in gold is impossible. Lies, damned lies! I've written several hundred essays in the past six years mostly about commodities including gold and have accurately called most of gold's major interim tops and bottoms in real-time near where they happened. My record is public (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm) and can easily be compared to gold's major uplegs and corrections so far. The late 2004 gold top (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/rdollar3.htm)? The early 2003 gold bottom (http://www.zealllc.com/2003/goldmacd.htm)? Last week's dollar-rally-driven gold selloff (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/goldtwo3.htm)? All anticipated in advance. Speculators were all over these tactical reversals and earned fortunes trading them.

So whether you are an investor or speculator, and each approach to the markets has advantages and disadvantages, realize that it is just plain silly to make foolish statements totally unsupported by history such as "corrections are impossible" or "successful gold speculation is impossible". Making any such absolute statement in a purely probabilistic market environment where anything can happen at any time simply highlights the naivety of those who dare utter such nonsense.

If you are a speculator you realize the huge importance of analyzing markets and looking for corrections. We live for volatility and love corrections as they provide us a dazzling buying opportunity for gold, silver, and PM stocks once they fully run their courses. But investors benefit tremendously from corrections too. If you are a pure long-term investor and you want to add more capital to these precious metals bulls, the ideal time to do it is right after a correction when prices are relatively low. Anticipating corrections greatly benefits investors.

With this background in mind and ignoring the fools who think markets rise in straight lines forever, two important questions about gold occupied my mind this week. First, and most importantly, is another major gold correction likely now underway as we have seen about a half-dozen times before in this gold bull or are we just witnessing a minor pullback?

Second, with gold the most technically overextended last week that it has been since its last Stage Three blowoff in early 1980, what are the odds Stage Three is here again? This is a crucial question with double-edged implications. If we are now in Stage Three, gold could continue blasting straight up to $5000 or so (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/golddefy.htm), but that would be it, this gold bull would be over. But if we aren't in Stage Three yet, then gold is not going to continue its vertical ascent, it will correct, but on the bright side there will probably be many more years left in this bull.

In order to frame my inquiry into these questions, I decided to view it in Relativity terms. Relativity is a trading theory (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/relativity.htm) I developed after spending many years studying current and historical markets. All secular bull markets in history flow and ebb, experiencing awesome uplegs followed by sharp corrections. Mathematically the uplegs stretch prices far above their 200-day moving averages and then the following corrections drag them back down to their 200dmas.

This perpetual oscillation away from and back to a bull's 200dma can be quantified by dividing a price, the gold price, by its 200dma. The resulting relative trading range expresses gold as a constant multiple of its 200dma over time. Charting this creates a probabilistic trading band showing how likely gold is to surge or correct at any given time. By comparing Relative Gold today with rGold in the early 1970s, the last time gold was transitioning into Stage Two (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/goldtwo.htm), we can gain an idea of how today's gold bull is faring relative to history.

The last time I wrote on the entire modern history of rGold was over two years ago (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/rgold.htm). If you read that earlier essay and compare it to this one, you may notice slight differences in extreme rGold highs and lows. This is because I am now using a new daily gold dataset we hadn't yet purchased the first time I did this study. Believe it or not all historical datasets, regardless of their price, contain some dirty and incorrect data. I think this new dataset is cleaner than our old one though so I am using it for historical gold analysis going forward.

For both investors and speculators perspective is absolutely crucial, and this long-term gold chart with over 65,000 individual data points graphed really puts gold's latest fantastic upleg into context. The red numbers are extreme rGold values at various points in time while the blue numbers mark the three major stages (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/au3stage.htm) of each great gold bull.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton051906/Zeal051906A.gif The first thing about this chart that is striking is how high gold looks today compared to its late 1970s super spike. This is quite deceiving though. If you adjust gold for inflation and chart it in real terms (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/cpigold.htm), gold is now merely trading at its same levels of the late 1980s. Gold's all-time nominal high in January 1980 expressed in today's increasingly inflated US dollars is near $2200. So within the scope of an entire secular bull, $700 gold today is nothing and not even close yet to the real highs of a quarter century ago.

Nevertheless, except during its final terminal blowoff in Stage Three of the 1970s gold superbull, gold certainly didn't move up in a straight line without interruption and neither has our current specimen. Check out the red rGold line in the 1970s. Gold alternatively rocketed higher in uplegs that utterly dwarf anything we have seen so far today but then it collapsed back down to its 200dma (1.00 rGold) in brutal corrections. Even despite this extreme volatility, the 1970s bull is still fondly remembered today as the greatest gold bull in history.

What really captured my attention last week, and I wrote a Zeal Speculator (http://www.zealllc.com/speculator.htm) Update on it at the time for our ZS subscribers, was how far gold had soared above its 200dma lately. On Thursday May 11th gold closed at 1.389x its 200dma. Students of the markets who understand gold's behavior over the last 35 years or so were stunned. Gold hadn't extended anywhere close to this far above its 200dma since its 1979 Stage-Three-blowoff super spike!

This was very concerning. Every week I get e-mails from folks who want Stage Three to be here, to see the mainstream public rush into gold like they did into the NASDAQ in 1999 and drive it to the moon. Yes it would be fun and we would all earn fortunes, but the problem with a premature Stage Three terminal parabola is that it will mark the end of this secular gold bull. Once the entire public buys gold, there will be no one left to buy and gold prices will collapse like they did in the early 1980s.

Another problem is that the earlier a bull transitions into Stage Three, the smaller its final Stage Three spike will be. Most secular bulls run a decade to 17 years (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/longwave2.htm) in duration, which is plenty of time for average folks to become aware of the vast riches that are being won in them. The longer a bull lingers in Stage Two, the investment-driven stage, the more people will become aware enough of it to ultimately buy in eventually driving a far higher Stage Three blowoff. The later that Stage Three drives gold terminal this time around, the exponentially higher the profits we will earn. We don't want a premature and anemic Stage Three.

And with our current gold bull just 5 years old, very young still, there are major fundamental and psychological reasons why Stage Three should be many years away yet. Fundamentally Stage Three typically doesn't happen until worldwide mined-gold supply exceeds demand, and we aren't even close yet. It takes many years for gold miners to bring new gold to market to respond to rising prices, it is a very slow process. And psychologically gold remains unpopular among mainstreamers. Until we hear everyone talking about gold all the time like they talked about tech stocks all the time in late 1999, it is too early psychologically for Stage Three.

When all these factors are added to the key fact that inflation-adjusted gold is still less than one-third of its way to its all-time January 1980 real highs, the odds of this latest gold surge being early Stage Three days are phenomenally low. But if Stage Three isn't upon us, then why is rGold stretched to unbelievable Stage Three levels? This question was bothering me until I created this chart.

It turns out, amazingly enough, that three decades ago in the last great gold bull's own early Stage Two years, rGold soared above today's levels three times in three different major uplegs! Thus enormously stretched rGold extremes are not only witnessed in Stage Three, but in Stage Two as well. I was really excited to learn this because it not only corroborates other technical evidence (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/goldtwo2.htm) that we are indeed in Stage Two, but it shows that this degree of huge upleg is normal in Stage Two!

Huge rGold spikes do not only happen during the Stage Three parabolic blowoff! This next chart zooms into the early and mid-1970s gold data and really illustrates this fascinating and encouraging point. While our current gold bull certainly won't unfold exactly like the last one, more often than not current market events at least rhyme with history so history helps us understand what kind of volatility we should expect.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton051906/Zeal051906B.gif In the early 1970s gold languished in a modest Stage One uptrend, not doing much of anything. Of course it was illegal for American investors to own bullion gold until early 1975 which certainly put a damper on gold's early 1970s progress. But in mid-1972, less than a year after Nixon reneged (http://www.zealllc.com/2003/infdef2.htm) on the international dollar gold standard, gold gloriously broke out of its Stage One channel. Its first Stage Two upleg drove it up 36% after this breakout in just 43 trading days, blasting gold up to 1.390x its 200dma.

These numbers are just wild technically. Why? Our latest gold upleg today, which is no doubt the first in Stage Two of our current bull market, is up 34% from its March lows, after its breakout, over 43 trading days. This unprecedented surge, for this bull at least, catapulted gold up to 1.389x its 200dma. Déjà vu? While I am going to discuss this more after the next chart, drink in these two separate initial-Stage-Two-upleg metrics separated by nearly a quarter century and marvel at how technically close they are statistically. Wow.

And for those who think gold is going terminally parabolic today, I really doubt it. I made another chart, which didn't make the cut for this essay, which graphs gold's Stage One run in the early 1970s up until the end of its first major Stage Two upleg in mid-1972. That chart looked almost identical in slope terms to the chart below of our current gold bull. Thus what may look like a parabolic gain now will probably look as small a few years from now as this 1972 upleg does in the context of the early Stage Two years of the 1970s gold bull.

Incredibly in the 1970s the Stage Two uplegs got even better after the initial one in 1972. The next upleg in 1973 blasted 108% higher, the following one ending in early 1974 advanced another 94%, and the last one in this series ending in late 1974 was still up 46%. The 108% and 94% uplegs were so fast and volatile that they dragged gold over 1.50x above its 200dma!

So today's stellar rGold levels may very well be handily exceeded in the coming Stage Two uplegs in the years ahead. Talk about big gains, if gold continues following its early-1970s script this time around then we ain't seen nothing yet!

Now these gigantic Stage Two uplegs last time around created a hyper-volatile Stage Two uptrend channel vastly steeper than anything that came before it. And while it is certainly fun to examine the 1970s Stage Two uplegs and imagine what wonders probably lay before us in Stage Two of our own gold bull, there is one crucial point that neither investors nor speculators should overlook.

After every single massive Stage Two upleg in what is today universally considered the greatest gold bull ever, gold corrected back down to its 200dma. Yes I used the c-word! Correction. These healthy plunges necessary to rebalance sentiment and prolong the bull's ultimate life were roughly proportionate with the uplegs that went immediately before them. The bigger the preceding upleg, generally the sharper and more vicious the following correction.

Thus in Stage Two, while we can expect far bigger uplegs than anything we have yet witnessed, the cost of these uplegs is the sharp corrections on the other side. These corrections do not hurt the bull and gold should continue to march higher on balance, but it will not march up in a straight line. No bull market in history ever has until its final terminal parabola.

So the folks today calling speculators who expected a gold correction idiots or morons have really misplaced their vitriol. Rather than wasting time attacking speculators just as bullish on gold as they are, they ought to be studying market history so they don't make fools of themselves.

The next crucial point from the lessons of the last Stage Two gold bull involves the depth of these periodic corrections. Every single one saw gold return all the way back down near its 200dma. Sometimes gold bounced right above its 200dma to launch its next upleg and other times it sank a bit under its 200dma, but overall the 200dma was a good correction target during the last Stage Two.

Now since I apparently have to be an idiot and moron to actually expect markets today to work like markets always do, perpetually driven by the same competing emotions of greed and fear, let me escalate my blasphemy. If gold corrected to near its 200dma in the last Stage Two no less than every single time, isn't there at least some small chance that it will correct to its 200dma today after its first Stage Two upleg this time around? If so, then we are in for one wicked correction, because today gold's 200dma is under $525!

Now check out gold's Stage Two transition today after understanding how Stage Two worked a quarter of a century ago. From the initial modest Stage One uptrend to the dazzling breakout to the amazing initial Stage Two upleg, the similarities here are uncanny. So far gold is pretty much doing what it did last time around.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton051906/Zeal051906C.gif Measuring this first dazzling Stage Two upleg is somewhat ambiguous. If we consider it as beginning way back at its 200dma last summer when gold threatened to plunge below $400 and investors were scared, it is up 74%. But if we instead just measure it from its latest mid-March lows after its breakout before it rocketed vertical, it is up 34% and in line with its 1972 initial-Stage-Two-upleg ancestor. Either way, this first Stage Two upleg is obviously vastly different in magnitude from its Stage One predecessors.

One key implication for speculators is this new Stage Two has just shattered our existing rGold trading range. For years now at Zeal we have been watching an rGold range running between 0.99 on the low side to 1.14 on the high side. When gold fell near the bottom of this range near its 200dma it had been an awesome buy for both investors and speculators and when gold hit or exceeded the top it was time to expect a correction and trade accordingly for speculators.

Based on my look at the Stage Two of the 1970s I think our lower rGold strong-buy zone of 0.99 is just fine going forward, but obviously gold trading at 1.14x its 200dma on the top end is far too conservative. I'll be closely watching gold's coming uplegs and using them to attempt to recalibrate the top of our rGold scale for Stage Two. With only one Stage Two upleg under our belts it is too early yet to make a guess, but the new Stage Two rGold neutral zone is no doubt going to be much higher than it was in Stage One.

This rGold trading range in Stage One rendered above is one of the key tools we used at Zeal to trade gold stocks over the past five years. We generally bought gold stocks when gold was near its 200dma and ratcheted up our trailing stops when gold was stretched far above its 200dma, with great success.

While we certainly didn't catch major interim tops and bottoms to the very day, we were pretty close most of the time and our subscribers thrived. They bought low and got stopped out high for big realized profits, over and over again. People today who say it is impossible to trade gold apparently weren't successfully doing it throughout this entire bull, they are flat-out wrong. Periodic corrections in powerful bulls are normal, healthy, inevitable, and anticipatable and it flabbergasts me when investors refuse to acknowledge this.

One of the most common anti-correction arguments is the Black Swan. In trading, a black swan is an ultra-rare event that radically moves markets but cannot be anticipated. Think 9/11 for example. People always tell me that if X happens then gold is going to the moon. I almost always agree with them. If X happens, if Washington is nuked, if the dollar hyper-inflates, if Martians invade, if whatever, gold will indeed go to the moon. But the problem is X is always an ultra-low-probability black-swan event.

Prudent speculators trade based on high-probability events like the normal flowing and ebbing of the markets for sentiment reasons, not worst-case scenarios. All prudent speculators also have long-term gold investments in a separate portfolio that they don't actively trade just in case, but they never bet their speculative capital on ultra-low-probability black-swan events. These just don't happen often enough to actively game.

At Zeal we intimately understand the markets are governed by probabilities so we align our trades and trading recommendations for our subscribers with the strongest prevailing probabilities. After gold rockets vertically at the end of a massive year-long upleg, the odds definitely favor a correction. These corrections are huge opportunities though as the bargains at their ends are the best deals investors and speculators alike are ever going to see in the midst of a powerful secular bull market.

While we have successfully traded every major gold and gold-stock upleg in this bull to date, we have never spent as much time preparing for the next buying opportunities near 200dmas as we have in recent months. If you want to buy the next round of elite gold miners with awesome fundamentals near their technical bottoms after this correction runs its course, please subscribe (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm) to our acclaimed monthly Zeal Intelligence (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm) newsletter today. And make sure you have cash in your trading accounts for the feast to come!

The bottom line is all bull markets, no matter how powerful they are or how compelling their fundamentals happen to be, flow and ebb. Periodic corrections are just as inevitable as massive uplegs and they must be expected from time to time. These episodes of weakness are very important for the bull's ultimate health and longevity as they keep greed in check and rebalance sentiment.

If someone has duped you into believing that corrections in gold are impossible, you are likely going to lose money and burn out fast. Corrections will indeed arrive anyway and can rip your psyche apart if you weren't expecting them from time to time. Please study market history to gird yourself against the rantings of ignorant fools, for the markets take no prisoners.

Adam Hamilton, CPA

May 19, 2006

So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm), that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research.

Please consider joining us each month for tactical trading details and more in our premium Zeal Intelligence service at www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm).

Questions for Adam? I would be more than happy to address them through my private consulting business. Please visit http://www.zealllc.com/adam.htm for more information.

Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at zelotes@zealllc.com. Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally. I will read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback!

Copyright ©2000-2006 Zeal Research All Rights Reserved.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton051906.html

mama mia

19.05.2006, 22:00

:schwitz nicht ganz so schlimm wie befürchtet ;)

mama mia

19.05.2006, 22:04

...wie ich sehe wird hier doch etliche Male angeklickt :supi das freut mich natürlich :) ich gehe jetzt für einen Monat in die Ferien und da bleibt mir natürlich keine oder wenig Zeit für Gold und Silber.....
Vielleicht macht ja der/die eine oder andere etwas weiter :confused ;)
Ich wollte einfach eine Übersicht bieten in dieser "golden time" - im "daily" ist so viel, dass man/ich mit Suchen etwas Mühe habe und ich meine es ist doch interessant diese Zeit etwas festzuhalten! ...die verschiedenen An-/Aussichten - wer liegt/lag richtig usw. usw.

Also jetzt schon :verbeug sollte es hier weitergehen :kiss

..me voy al http://www.herzog-fenster.ch/grafik/sonne.gifhttp://www.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/i/islandjoe/1-thumb.gif :winke

mama mia

20.05.2006, 08:19

Posted On: Friday, May 19, 2006

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs
It is time for a review. For a generational bull market in gold to exist the following is required. What has amazed me is how well gold has acted with major pillars still not fully in place. The price of gold has hit the recovery high of 1980 at the $720 area. That is outstanding when you consider the axiom below.

I told you as gold is roaring up to:

Fasten your seat belts.
Gold may range $100 in short bursts.
Remove your entire margin on anything gold and silver.
This was the Big Kahuna.
Gold is heading for $1650 and I might well be conservative in my expectation.
There are five elements that must be in place in order to have a generational bull market in gold.

We certainly have a recognized top in the US dollar but gold had rallied into a contra-trend dollar move.
We have not had a recognized top in US Treasury instruments yet the rise in the gold price has been spectacular. A recognized top in long term treasuries means a break down in the very long term up trend line which has not yet occurred, but is threatening now to occur. Even without this pillar in place gold has been spectacular in its ability to reach the 1980 recovery high.
There is no question we had and will continue to have a bull market in general commodities. That alone cannot be given credit for the ability of gold to rise so far to the 1980 recovery high.
The Triple Deficits are firmly in place.
Distrust in US paper Assets has not been reflected in US equities, yet gold rallied from the $248 into the high of the 1980 gold recovery at the $720 level.
It is spectacular that gold has been so strong with only Pillars #3 and #4 firmly in place.

Can you imagine what level the gold price will accomplish when all of “The Five Golden Pillars” are in place simultaneously? Consider what the price of gold will be when the long term trend line on the 30 Year US Treasury bond breaks down, when US equities are not so popular and the US dollar is below USDX .8050. My answer is a gold price of at least $887.50.

Please do not let the nature of the gold price changes get you emotionally distraught. They are ferocious and will get even more manic. It is going to range $100 a day soon. You will be slaughtered if you panic on the down and turn into a true believer on the up. You will be slaughtered if you use ANY margin at all. That is only for the pros. Many of them will be ground beef before 2006 is over.

You will prosper if you get a grip and hold it tight. My grip is that we are in a generational bull market that has outperformed even until today. It has done what no one would believe even three months ago. It is acting like a major bull market now in its volatility and volume. The gold price which I expect is now looking too low for the reasons stated above.

I am more bullish on gold today than I have ever been in my 46 years of experience. The following was presented to you in 2003 when the goal of $480 then presented as a market target was consider totally LOCO.

“The Five Golden Pillars”

A recognized top in the U. S. Dollar.
A recognized top in the U. S. Treasury Long Bond.
A bullish phase within general commodity markets:
Triple Deficits of U. S. Budget, Current Account and Trade firmly in place.
Trust in Paper Assets must be declining.

****************

Dear Friends

I think Lars is correct. None of the problems of the past have disappeared. Gold and oil are just having normal corrections, assisted by a couple of central banks selling gold to help out their local banks who were caught short of metals. We will be buyers of oil and gold in late May and early June.

Monty

...und weiter: http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=2&linkid=3603&T_ARID=3670&sCID=&sPID=&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=

mama mia

20.05.2006, 08:34

Leute schreibt was - es bleibt spannend :supi;)

hier noch einige gute Links:

http://205.232.90.194/home.html

http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/

http://www.jsmineset.com/arhome.asp?RQ=AR,1&GID=2&cTID=0&PRID=0

http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Richard+Daughty

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.golddrivers.com/Juniors/juniorpageweekly.htm

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Archives.html

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/

http://www.butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/

...es gibt noch viele und auf die Schnelle finde ich auch nicht alles....

:winke

mama mia

20.05.2006, 15:25

...menno - schreibt :o

http://www.goldseek.com/news/Grandich/PeterGrandich.gif http://www.goldseek.com/news/Grandich/GL.jpg (http://www.grandich.com/)

Metals and Mining Shares – What A Difference A Week Makes!

By: Peter Grandich
The Grandich Letter (http://www.grandich.com/), Grandich Publications, LLC

4 P.M. EDT FRIDAY SPECIAL ALERT:

By Peter Grandich

On Thursday May 11, 2006, at 1:00 p.m., I issued a special Alert that said, “An overbought/oversold indicator of mine that I’ve used since before the 1987 stock market crash, has given the most overbought reading ever for both copper and gold… I’m going to suggest that risk in gold, silver and copper is now equal to, or much higher, than reward in these markets for the near term. The long awaited sharp correction is within hours or days away at the most.”

I appeared on Canada’s “Report on Business Television” (by far, North America’s best financial network) on Friday, May 12th http://www.grandich.com/robtv.05.12.06a.htm and stated that I believed the day before began a correction that could see us drop 10% to 15% in just days or weeks (go to about the 56 minute mark in the interview).

I gave my thoughts to several media outlets, but my comments to the Daily Telegraph –U.K.,

http://www.grandich.com/docs/telegraph_05-15-06.pdf created the most “fan” reaction. I guess that was due in part that the reporter used this headline “Unsustainable gold on the brink of crash, says US metals guru.” Never do I recall using the word crash to describe my outlook, but I assume he took it upon himself to assume that was my theme after I told him. He quotes me in the article:

“I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15pc, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce.” I hardly think that’s a crash.

It’s been an interesting week or so, to say the least!

Good News – Bad News

Lets get the bad news out of the way first. Many of the “Johnny-come-latelys” to the metals and mining share markets have been beaten up pretty badly. While we’re all accountable only to ourselves and have no one else to blame for our investments (unless we have given someone complete discretion over our portfolio), I do have some sympathy for these folks because they were led to the slaughter in part thanks to some “big name” so-called experts. These “experts” had missed most of the run but scrambled to get themselves in front of the pack by issuing big new upgraded bullish opinions at or near the top. What bothers me about many of these folks was the belief they “changed” their opinion not because they wanted to, but because they had to in fear of looking like complete fools. This is harsh of me and may come across as arrogance but I’m disgusted to see some in the media beat a path to the door of someone who was basically on the wrong side for years, but almost ignore someone who hit a near bulls-eye for 5+ years. I’m not referring to myself but to Bill Murphy of http://www.gata.org.

I won’t name them, but there are several folks who were basically bearish or indifferent to the metals for many years, then “suddenly” began to urge folks to jump in with both feet. The media would issue a headline that such and such raised their outlook for gold to now average around the current price or even higher for next 12 months. What you don’t know is this group’s last call was so far surpassed they had no choice but to raise their forecast (kind of hard to have a $450, 2006 forecast when gold is $650). Yet, a man like Bill Murphy, even if you don’t believe any of his reasons for believing gold would do what it did, who nevertheless had the correct forecast versus these others that didn’t, was basically ignored by most media outlets. I found it ironic and a little sad that the Wall Street Journal would finally give him some print, albeit not in the most favorable light, at the exact top for gold as of now. I’ve heard many within my own industry knock Bill and GATA and tell me how all their claims are hogwash. Here’s what I have to say to them – I would rather end up on the right side of a market for all the wrong reasons then on the wrong side of a market for all the right reasons.

Forgive me for my little tirade but it has bugged me. I may lose some media exposure for this but I needed to say it.

The good news is: there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. While we can still see another 10% or so down from here (especially in copper- if not more), I do think by stepping aside last Thursday, the majority of the correction I foresaw is now behind us – especially in the mining and exploration shares. We can still move sideways to down through June, but I now think real further weakness is strictly a buying opportunity (except in copper- where I see another 20% down).

Gold –

I believe it’s wise for you to separate gold from other commodities going forward because while supply versus demand factors remain bullish, geopolitical and economic events evolving and surrounding the United States should have the biggest positive impact on gold’s direction.

In case you didn’t read this alert, http://www.grandich.com/docs/alertGL_04-04-06.pdf , let me just say:

The only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead, is the U.S. Dollar!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In case you ever wondered what it must have been like when the Roman Empire fell apart, let it be known you’re at the beginning of the end for the United States as the world’s biggest economic power. America is on the cusp of economic and political upheaval, unlike anything it has experience in its entire history!!! The days of robbing Peter to pay Paul are coming home to roost. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s will have nothing over the Democrats versus Republicans going forward. The aging crisis in America is going to make the energy and terrorism crisis “second-fiddle.” Most Americans still have no idea how many parts of the world no longer welcome their “Uncle Sam” with open arms. This is going to be a critical blunder of theirs as they continue to live way beyond their means. The ramifications of becoming debt junkies hasn’t even crossed their minds yet, but when they realize their “pushers” (foreigners who fund our deficits) will demand much higher interest rates and political clout in exchange for their capital, America will have a wake up call like nothing they’ve ever experienced- including the Great Depression.

Gold is the best alternative currency and the ultimate safe-haven investment. It’s going to take a major breakdown below 80 basis the U.S. Dollar Index to cause gold to hit four digits, but in my heart of hearts, that’s only a question of when, not if. I hope my friends in Vancouver won’t hold my bad Canucks joke against me when America falls and I need a place to stay.

Silver –

The “kissing cousin” of gold is likely to ride the coattail of gold but I do think gold must be the bigger of the two in most holdings.

Platinum and Palladium –

I’ve stated that they should hold up better due to the best supply versus demand scenario besides Uranium and they have for the most part. If there’s such a thing as blue-chip metal, Platinum is it.

Copper –

I believe it has been ignoring real fundamentals since above $2.50. I think it ends up there, if not lower, before too long. I was far too early in my bearish sentiment but I do believe it’s better to be a year too early than a day too late. We will learn to live and prosper in mining shares with a $2-$2.50 copper price.

Uranium –

Same old story – the no-brainer metal on its way to $75.

U.S. Dollar –

D.E.A.D. – R.I.P.

Oil –

This oil bear is once again popping up his head in believing $75 is the top for the cycle. But knowing hurricane season is around the corner and Iraq was just the opening act for Iran, I’ll just return to my hole and await further development. I do believe Natural Gas could be very interesting in the next month or two.

Mining and Exploration Shares –

I said in my May 11th issue, “…the second half of 2006, and especially 2007, is setting up to be the speculative frenzy most have been patiently waiting for.”

While shares in general can decline another 10%-15%, the bulk of the froth has been removed, especially in the junior resource market. In fact, I do believe the next 60-90 days could offer one of the best entry points into the junior market since the bottom in 2001-2002. I’m highly prejudiced since part of my livelihood is made within that industry, but it’s my most humble opinion.

-- Posted Friday, 19 May 2006 Peter Grandich is the Managing Member of Grandich Publications, LLC (www.grandich.com (http://www.grandich.com/)).
The company publishes three investment newsletters:

The Grandich Letter (first published in 1984) - covers the metals and mining industry

North of The Border - covers the Canadian markets from an American prospective.

The Blue Chip & Income Report – Follows all world markets and economies.

Grandich also provides a variety of corporate finance and development services to publicly-held companies.

Peter Grandich is also the Managing Member of Trinity Financial, Sports & Entertainment Management Company, LLC (www.trinityfsem.com (http://www.trinityfsem.com/)), a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of New Jersey. Trinity provides investment advisory services to individuals, small to mid-size businesses, professional athletes and entertainers.

Peter is a long- standing member of The New York Society of Security Analysts and The Society of Quantitative Analysts.

mama mia

20.05.2006, 15:31

:verbeug

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May 19, 2006
Stocks Finally Bounce But The Metals Crater

We opened slightly higher in the S&Ps and then immediately had a cave-in. After a bounce, we made another probe lower to a new low for the day and just below the SPX 200 dma, but this time, the rebound was more robust (you know how the bulls love to buy that line on the charts).

After another small pullback that failed to make a new low for the day, we began to steadily work our way higher and made a new high for the day around noon. We continued to inch a little higher into the mid-afternoon but then gave back a good chunk of our gains into the close to still end positive but well off the highs. Volume was extra meaty once again thanks to the options expiration (2.2 bil on the NYSE and 2.5 bil on the NASDAQ). Breadth was slightly positive on both exchanges.

DELL had already preannounced, so its earnings last night weren’t really news (DELL rose 3 percent today). What was news, however, was that DELL said it was going to start using AMD chips in its servers, finally ending its exclusive relationship with INTC. That also obviously opens the door to DELL putting AMD chips in its PCs at some point as well. AMD exploded to the upside for over 11 percent on the news, while INTC fell over a percent to a new multiyear low. Hats off to my friend Bill Fleckenstein, who has been expecting this to happen for some time.

The rest of the chips were mostly higher by 1 to 3 percent. The equips were similarly higher by a percent or two. The SOX rose over 3 percent, finally breaking its streak of down-days.

The rest of tech was mostly higher in what was a general across the board lift after days and days of nonstop selling. Whether this means some sort of bottom is in place or this was just a relief rally before new lows are made next week remains to be seen.

The financials were also mostly higher. The BKX rose over half a percent, and the XBD rose over a percent. MER rose over a percent, and the derivative king was flat. BAC and C both rose a touch, and GE was flat.

GM rose over 2 percent. AIG fell half a percent. ABK and MBI were both up a hair. The mortgage lenders were mixed and mostly up or down a percent. FRE rose a hair, and FNM rose a percent.

The retailers were mostly higher once again, with the RTH rising over a percent after having opened at a new low for the year this morning. TGT rose over a percent, and BBY rose over 2 percent.

The homies all opened lower but recovered somewhat to end near their highs for the day but still down less than a percent for the most part. So far, we’re not seeing much of a bounce in the homies given the rally in the bond market.

Crude oil was off 92 cents to $68.53. The XOI rose half a percent. The XNG rose over a percent, and the OSX rose half a percent. The XLB also rose half a percent. The JOC fell half a percent, and the CRB fell 3 percent.

The base metals were crushed once again, with copper losing over 5 percent and closing at a new low for the move since its peak. The Fed’s bluff about being tough is obviously working, but ironically, the more these base metals and other commodities fall, the more likely that we are in reality going to get a Fed pause in June.

Gold opened down about $7 this morning in the US and then proceeded to plunge over $25 to as low as $651 before finally firming a little into the close to end down $23.40 to $657.50. Silver fared better and was only off a percent.

The GLD Gold ETF liquidated another 50,000 ounces yesterday, bringing its total gold holdings to 11,076,810.03 ounces. Again, I’m not too alarmed by this given that the ETF’s gold holdings have increased by so much since December. In fact, I’m actually surprised that we haven’t seen more liquidation in the ETF’s holdings on this selloff. To date, the ETF’s gold holdings are only down less than 500,000 ounces from its peak of over 11.5 million ounces in late April.

The HUI opened down and plunged to as low as 2 percent but then reversed and rallied for the remainder of the session to go out on the best levels of the day and only down less than a percent. The XAU/gold ratio rose to .212. That’s not quite the outright buy signal that we’ve been looking for where the shares broadly close higher despite a lower gold price, but it’s pretty close. Half of the seniors and intermediates did actually close up on the day. GLG and MDG were the best performers and ended up nearly 2 percent. And given that many of the smaller shares (without options) traded up too, I don’t think it was purely just the option expiration either.

The juniors similarly opened down but also recovered. CBJ rallied 5 percent and CGR rallied 6 percent. NSU was off half a percent, while GSS, MFN, and MRB were all of just over a percent.

This is the classic way that gold shares form a bottom. Just as the shares anticipated this selloff in the metal to a large extent and discounted it, they are now anticipating a low in gold. This is exactly what occurred back in December as well. Recall that the shares stopped going down even as gold corrected (exactly what we’re seeing now) and once everyone saw that gold was not going to collapse and was merely correcting, the shares exploded to new highs.

Now, gold probably has lower to go next week (again $640, or even $620 would not be a surprise), but we should continue to see the shares resist the decline and eventually rally despite it. As is generally the case, we can expect the shares to likely bottom before the metal and then begin to move higher even though the metal probably won’t really begin its next leg up in earnest until some time in June when it becomes more apparent that the Fed is bluffing about being tough and the dollar begins to slide again.

For those that care, my own hunch is that today was probably the low for the vast majority of the gold shares for this correction.:schwitz As a result, I not only exercised my May NEM calls today, but I also bought some Sep 60 calls this morning, and I obviously continue to hold all of my juniors as well. I also plan to buy calls on more of the larger cap shares next week if we see the right trading action as I have described.

With the Peruvian elections coming up on June 4th and the leftist candidate likely to lose according to the recent polls, I think this could be a positive catalyst for NEM (and potentially all the gold shares) since the fear of this event appeared to trigger the underperformance of NEM and the gold shares in general several weeks ago. NEM is also cheap relative to its NAV at $650 gold or even $600 gold, so it makes sense from a valuation basis too. It’s not as cheap as many juniors still are, but you do get more liquidity with NEM.

Regarding the juniors, it was after gold’s big pullback in December that we finally started seeing some takeover bids from the larger gold companies, so it seems reasonable that we might see more of those bids following this decline as well as seniors’ management gets more confidence that gold is going to remain above a certain level. Regarding GSS specifically, I also expect GSS will buy back the call options that it sold (as it pledged to do on any decline in gold per the company’s Q1 earnings call), and that news could be a positive catalyst for the stock in the coming couple weeks as well.

As far as the gold shares go, the best bang for the buck is still in the juniors I think, but many of the seniors and intermediates are now at levels where I would consider them “value” buys as well.

The US dollar index was up nearly a percent at one point today but gave up above half of its gains to end only up just under half a percent. The yen lost nearly a percent after the BOJ indicated it might be further away from tightening than originally thought, while the euro was only off a touch. The dollar should be able to bounce for a bit, but we can see how labored the bounce is.

Treasuries began the day lower but reversed to end higher in the long end. The yield on the 10yr fell slightly to 5.058%. The 2/10 spread narrowed by 5 bps to over 9 bps. The bond market should be able to bounce for a while just like the dollar I would think.

The 10yr junk spread to treasuries widened a big 17 bps to 284 bps over treasuries, which is a new 2-month high. So, we’re getting a little confirmation from the credit markets now that this recent drop in stocks is not just “noise”, although spreads are still extremely low and not showing much fear other than the last several days.

The 10 dma of the CBOE put/call ratio hit 1.11 today, a new 17-year high (or at least that is as far back as my data goes).

We had a nice rebound for the most part today in stocks, as the options expiration appeared to run its course and we got our expected bounce at the magic 200 dma of the SPX.

Where to now? I suspect we may continue to try and bounce next week before potentially probing a little lower, and then we’ll just have to wait and see how things trade. The stock market is now extremely oversold and the level of fear generated on this decline so far (see the put/call ratio above) certainly argues for some sort of rally to begin soon (it’s either that or a crash has started?). I just don’t know how long the bounce will last.

But since I do believe the Fed is still going to pause at its June 29th FOMC meeting and that the economic data will continue to support that between now and the June FOMC, we can have some degree of certainty that the stock market is going to have some sort of rally as that becomes apparent, but from where and how far? There is no telling.

We’ll just have to take it one day at a time, but there will be a big rally in the major indexes on that news I believe (from either the current level or lower), because the economic data probably won’t be bad enough just yet to overwhelm the good feelings and hope that a Fed pause will unleash in stocks. But certain sectors could still suffer as the economy softens. In essence, the environment is going to be much less of a one-way trade than it has been for the past 6 months.

It’s been pretty easy to simply assume most everything (stocks, commodities, foreign currencies, etc) would rally for the past 6 months based on a coming Fed pause, but it’s likely going to get a good deal more difficult than that going forward. And that’s where it is going to be important to have a game plan of sorts I think. In that spirit, my thinking is as follows:

Despite the rising signs of inflation, the US economy is slowing much faster than most realize due to high energy costs and the continued deflation of the housing market. As we noted yesterday, the Philly Fed’s employment component had its biggest drop in history, and we’re also seeing more and more stories (http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0519layoffs0519.html) about rising layoffs in the homebuilding industry. We’ve also had our first indications of softeness at the retail level in the last week or so from various retailers. This all smells of stagflation, and the Fed is aware of this growing risk to the economy. But the Fed also knows they are trapped to a large extent by the market. They need to get bond yields down, the dollar up, and commodity prices down before they try and pause.

This is what all of the sudden hawkish talk coming from the Fed is all about in my view. But it’s also a bluff that the market will eventually call I think. In the meantime though, the Fed is going to get some nice declines in commodities that it can point to in its coming FOMC statement in order to justify a pause. If I put on my Fed hat, the June statement might go something like this: “With the recent declines in commodities, the committee feels the risk or rising inflation has abated somewhat… blah blah blah...” And then as always when push comes to shove, the Fed will choose the easy way out, which is to pause, just as Heli-Ben told us they likely would during his congressional testimony. A weak May payroll number in two weeks would absolutely cinch this sort of scenario in my opinion.

Once the pause is on the table, the dollar is undoubtedly going to get pounded once again, and gold is going to absolutely explode. Perhaps the bond market can hang together for a bit before resuming its decline, and stocks will no doubt get some sort of rally. As for how big of a rally it might be, there’s no telling. As I’ve said, it may only be a failing one.

Because I expect to see more and more evidence that the economy is slowing and so much of the buying in the base metals is “investor based”, the base metals and other GDP sensitive commodities (except oil) probably won’t participate as much as they did during this most recent slide in the dollar, and I think there’s a good chance that many base metals, like copper, may have even peaked. But the precious metals (especially gold) should have another run and a potentially big one as they catch more of a monetary and “fear” bid.

I’m obviously making a lot of assumptions in all of that, but that’s the big picture as I see it at the moment. Although I could obviously change my mind about any number of things depending on whether things play out as I expect them to over the next 30 days…

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Disclaimer: Lance Lewis periodically publishes columns expressing his personal views regarding particular securities, securities market conditions, and personal and institutional investing in general, as well as related subjects.

Mr. Lewis is the president of Lewis Capital, which manages a hedge fund in Dallas, Texas. This fund regularly buys, sells, or holds securities that are the subject of his columns, or options with respect to those securities, and regularly holds positions in such securities or options as of the date those columns are published. The views and opinions expressed in Mr. Lewis' columns are not intended to constitute a description of the securities bought, sold, or held by the fund. The views and opinions expressed in Mr. Lewis' columns are also not an indication of any intention to buy, sell, or hold any security on behalf of the fund, and investment decisions made on behalf of the fund may change at any time and for any reason. Mr. Lewis' columns are not intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

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Copyright © 2002-2006 Lewis Capital, Inc. All rights reserved.

Zum Original-Beitrag (showthread.php3?p=921656#post921656)

mama mia

31.05.2006, 15:38

THE ULTIMATE ARGUMENT AND THE ULTIMATE TEST

Copyright 2002 J.N. Tlaga

In Amicus Curiae Argument of October 22, 2001 - http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga102501.html - very truly yours brought to the attention of the US District Court in Boston,

(1) that because of across-the-board collateralization of reversible gold transactions, every single ounce of central banks gold that is now swapped, on loan, or under repurchase agreement is for all practical purposes irreversibly sold in exchange for US Treasury securities, and

(2) that all such irreversible sales of central banks gold in exchange for US Treasury securities were rendered not reportable to the legislators and to the general public by way of extra legal "authority" cooked up at the IMF by the proxy of BIS and later adopted by the ECB, and

(3) that US Treasury does not keep current ownership record of its securities that are sold through the Federal Reserve "Primary Dealers" and Federal Reserve controlled banks.

The purpose of that disclosure was to make the Court realize that unless the Federal Reserve's books and records were produced for inspection in the course of discovery procedure, there was no practical way to ascertain the actual ownership status of central banks gold and the true extent of "gold carry trade" complained of by the plaintiff.

There are two kinds of fiat money in circulation:

(1) Federal Reserve notes, which earn no interest, are used as cash by the general public, and are commonly known as "US dollars", and

(2) US Treasury securities - bills, notes and bonds - commonly known as "US bonds", which earn interest and, unbeknownst to general public, are used as cash in global banking and new-world-order trade.

Transactions paid in "dollars" are subject to reporting, control, and restrictions related to income tax and "money laundering", but transactions paid in "bonds" fly under the income tax radar, and unleashing IRS dogs by the Fed upon such transactions depends entirely on who the parties are. "New-world-order trade", as it applies to the United States, is a shorthand for a predatory system, which, essentially, consists of the following:

(1) Closing down factories in the United States where wages and taxes are high, currency is overvalued, and the cost of environmental protection is high;

(2) Opening the same factories in low wage countries with undervalued currencies and non-existent environmental protection;

(3) Exporting products of so transplanted factories back to the United States to maximize profit due to wage and, especially, rate of exchange differentials, and to apply the "go abroad or go bankrupt" squeeze on the patriotic manufacturers who resist the pressure to move their factories abroad;

(4) Supplying the US populace with excessive consumer credit, progressively offset against real estate equity, whose appraisal is in turn pumped up far beyond its real value, in order to provide market for imported goods at the expense of equity created by prior generations (selling America from under feet of her people).

Following the Amicus Curiae Argument, very truly yours submitted in "Thanksgiving Day Question" a direct inquiry to Dr Ron Paul, Texas Representative in Congress, whether or not was it his intention to seek the office of the President of the United States in the general elections of November 2, 2004, by way of early declared campaign, whose objective would also be to renew House and Senate. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112201.html

And one week later, in a proposal THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE, a Call for Overnight Revolution was made with declared intention to open national debate on how to transform the present fiat money regime into an honest-money regime without harming the economy. What is unique about this proposal is that the morning after the proposed overnight revolution the money supply remains unchanged, and economy proceeds as usual, while all the Federal Reserve notes and all the Treasury securities have been neatly excised from circulation. The task to abolish the fiat currency without destroying money supply as such has always been pictured as impossible dream, and thereby the strongest argument for maintaining fiat money forever. THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE puts this false argument to its well deserved rest. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112801.html

And this Call for Overnight Revolution was meant to be not only the ultimate proposal to return to honest money, but also the ultimate argument in "Howe vs BIS" and the ultimate test of our national will to return to honest money.

It came to me as an afterthought, that the argument the defendants in "Howe vs BIS" were most likely relying upon was absent from the record of their case. What if - I could not help not to ask myself - the myth that there was no viable alternative to the fiat money regime was set adrift to reach Judge Lindsay innocuously from many directions in order to leave what professional spin artists call "adequate residue". This residue could in time graduate to the reasoning that even though the fiat money regime and its gold price manipulation scheme was nothing short of criminal, its only alternative was worldwide chaos. Therefore, decision for the plaintiff, upholding the rule of law, would in effect amount to upholding anarchy, while decision for the defendants, although repugnant to the existing law, would in effect amount to upholding the rule of law, no matter how limping this rule might appear to be as a result thereof.

This kind of sophistry, ending in the open embrace of irrational conclusion, would not be unheard of to the lawyers among us, but it could be prevented by publishing an argument amply demonstrating that there was a viable alternative to the fiat money regime. Once published, such an argument could not be unpublished, meaning, no spin artist could vacuum it from people's minds and from public domain. We may never know whether this ultimate argument, solely by virtue of its existence, will in the end be helpful in shaping the Court's decision in "Howe vs BIS", but procedurally, it would not be proper nor graceful to seek to file it as an amendment to Amicus Curiae Argument.

When the Order of US District Court for the District of Massachusetts, denying my motion for leave to file Amicus Curiae Argument in "Howe vs BIS", became known to me on November 29, I managed, via postings during 20:00 Hours segment of Gold Forum ( http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html ), to prevent premature comments which, I feared, might not fit the proprieties of the court decorum, which in my book also apply outside the courtroom. But I could not preempt private questions, which kept hammering at two points:

(1) How come your brief misspells Dred Scott as "Dread Scott"?
(2) How come your brief "does not cite a single case or statute"?

I knew about "Sanford's Curse". (Because his name was erroneously "corrected" in DRED SCOTT v. JOHN F. A. SANDFORD, the plaintiff's name will be similarly "corrected" until the end of time.) And yet, I found myself involuntarily executing this curse as cast, not unlike the famous Cardinal, who, notwithstanding endless admonitions against such pitfalls, still managed to say in Easter sermon: "Before the cock denies, Peter will crow trice." And just like that famous Cardinal, I will forever wish for that momentary pause before my error was set in stone. The whole amicus argument was drafted, edited and printed between Friday night and Monday morning. Haste makes waste.

How come my brief "does not cite a single case or statute"?

Because in my view there is no case or statute to cite.

The whole point of my argument is that "Howe vs BIS" is a unique case, whose correct adjudication requires discarding and not citing (i.e. upholding) wrongful precedent cases and wrongful statutes. Federal Reserve System and its fiat money regime are as illegitimate as the slavery system used to be. The statutes and cases in its favor are not to be cited and upheld, but summarily scraped.

Under the ancient "stare decisis" doctrine, the Common Law rule requires that court decisions once made should be upheld by posterity. As a result, the body of Common Law grows by squeezing the later cases into the pigeon holes of the earlier cases. Often the interpretations employed to make the later cases fit the precedent cases stretch both the Common Law and common sense.

Then one day a trial court discards a long line of such squeezed-in precedent cases on the theory that they represent impermissible deviation from the prior good law. Such a rejection, if sustained by the appellate courts, overrules the affected line of precedents, and resets the clock back to the prior good law.

If the Supreme Court of the United States would have summarily discarded slavery cases and statutes in its Dred Scott ruling, the history of these United States would have been completely different than it was, because the Civil War would have never taken place. To this day, Southern gentlemen can be heard calling it "the Northern Aggression War". In my view, it was "the Supreme Court's Inadequacy War". When Horatio Nelson sailed into the battle of Trafalgar, his ship signaled to the fleet: "England expects that every man will do his duty." In 1856, Dred Scott signal - "America expects that Supreme Court will do its duty" - fell on blind eyes and deaf ears.

The Supreme Court should have taken the position, that precedent decisions and colonial statutes upholding the status of African slaves as that of a chattel property of their owners were null and void, because they represented impermissible deviation from the earlier precedents and statutes, and, in any case, they were abrogated by the Declaration of Independence, which must be interpreted as universal in scope. There may not be any limitation on freedom or any exclusion from freedom. Freedom is like love; either it exists and then it's absolute, or it's not absolute and then does not exist at all.

Instead, the Supreme Court invalidated the Missouri Compromise and ruled that it was legal under US Constitution to extend slavery to all free states and territories, essentially, because to rule otherwise would deprive slave owners of their lawful property whenever they would choose to travel to a free state. Abraham Lincoln, who believed the Declaration of Independence was valid universally, characterized this reasoning and the legal reality it heralded, as follows:

... if any one man choose to enslave another,
no third man shall be allowed to object.

"Howe vs BIS" is a Dred Scott case of our time. It challenges the fiat money system, which, next to slavery, is the second cancer on American democracy. And the US District Court in Boston does not have to overrule any wrongful statute or precedent case upholding it. All that is needed to do away with this cancer is to deny the defendants motions to dismiss and let the case proceed into its pretrial stage.

When the discovery procedure will begin, and Reginald Howe will serve a Notice to Produce the Federal Reserve's registry of US Treasury securities transactions, this will be the beginning of the end of the Federal Reserve System. For the first time in history, everyone will know who is paying to whom for what and why in the underground currency of US Treasury securities.

Only a small part of US Treasury securities is sold directly to the public and registered at the US Treasury. The bulk of these offerings is bought by the Fed itself and the Fed-anointed "Primary Dealers" who register all subsequent transactions with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This record of US Treasury securities transactions is needed to guard against unlicensed counterfeiting (in contrast to the licensed counterfeiting which produces US Treasury securities in the first place).

In the old days, when US Treasury securities were issued in printed form, mafia enterprises printed their own "US Treasury securities" to be used abroad as collaterals for business loans. In due course, the loans would be repaid, "collaterals" would be returned, and in theory US Treasury should never have any reason to suspect additional securities were in circulation because they would never be tendered in for redemption, they would only be used as collaterals. But reality is always different than theory. When Franklin National Bank collapsed as a result of heavy losses in foreign exchange operations, the paper trails of the parties holding other end of FNB transactions led to bogus US Treasury securities.

US Treasury securities are issued in electronic form nowadays. When J.P. Morgan offers US Treasury securities to some central bank as collateral for a gold loan, how does the bank know that such electronic securities are genuine and were not made up by J.P. Morgan's subsidiary, who is one of the "Primary Dealers"? The bank knows securities are genuine because Federal Reserve Bank of New York says so.

Obtaining this track record of US Treasury securities changing hands all over the world, will supply the track record of what is really happening in "global economy". A record of transfers of Federal Reserve notes, such as that of Clearing House Interbank Payment System (CHIPS), does not supply this essential information.

When J.P. Morgan borrows gold from Bundesbank and wires collateral of US Treasury securities, the transaction is recorded in Federal Reserve Bank of New York but is absent in CHIPS record.

We have every right to expect that the records of gold borrowings from US Treasury will be utterly entertaining. E.g., Goldman Sachs borrows gold from former employee, Robert Rubin, in his capacity of the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, and wires him a collateral of US Treasury securities. Rubin puts these securities in "deep storage" to be released to Goldman Sachs when Goldman Sachs returns the borrowed gold. But instead of returning the borrowed gold, Goldman Sachs wires another load of US Treasury securities as collateral for another gold loan. In the end, during Mr Rubin's tenure as Secretary of the Treasury, Goldman Sachs and other gold bullion dealers borrowed much more gold than could be produced or reacquired on gold market within reasonable time. As a result, when Mr Rubin resigned as Secretary of the Treasury, he left behind what con men call... "a situation". Treasury may not call in the gold loans, because this would expose the fact that they are not repayable, which would force canceling collaterals and official disclosure of the loss of gold to Congress. (Unofficially the whole Congress knows about it, which is yet another reason to begin replacing it in the incoming elections.) In order to maintain a false pretense that national gold bullion reserves are intact, Secretary of the Treasury and the President himself not only deny the loss, but continue to give away the remaining gold reserves which could still be saved. When ultimately confronted about it, they will inevitably claim they had no choice, because their only alternative would be the worldwide economic collapse. (And this, of course, is the same kind of fallacy, as that the abolishing of fiat money would result in destruction of money supply and return to barter economy.)

This whole story, and much more besides, can be deducted from US Treasury securities registry at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The shredding of transcripts of the proceedings of the Fed's Open Market Committee, that is generating so much of hullabaloo these days, is a red herring device by which the establishment planners hope to highjack Ron Paul's mantle for someone like Ralph Nader or Harry Browne, whose job will then be to steer the national opposition into a ditch. From the day one, those FOMC transcripts were introduced as a disinformation instrument. (Intelligence agents routinely maintain diaries in which they lie to themselves in order to mislead counterintelligence and to condition their own minds.)

Again, US Treasury securities are used as cash by global enterprises, and this insulates the affected transactions from any inquiry of tax authorities, such as Internal Revenue Service. Only the transactions involving Federal Reserve notes, i.e., paper dollars, are reported to the IRS. The records of transactions paid for with US Treasury securities are kept only at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the entities domiciled in the places like Bermuda or Cayman Islands.

And this is the primary reason for all the anxiety "Howe vs BIS" generates among the powers that be.

The ultimate test of our national will to return to honest money swings on the very same pivot as the ultimate argument in "Howe vs BIS".

The myth that fiat money could not be abolished without destroying the money supply itself operated as a giant uniform excuse for everyone. As long as that myth stood unchallenged, every Regular Joe and Plain Jane could say: I am very much for honest money, but, unhappily, it is too late for it now. Destruction of the money supply would cause more problems than honest money would solve. The time to resist fiat money was before Christmas 1913. Now we are stuck with it.

But when an orderly argument rejects this fallacy, Joe's and Jane's excuse for inaction is lost. Because the return to honest money can be executed by a willing President and Congress without coming anywhere near the calamities advertised by the fiat money racket, every Regular Joe and Plain Jane now faces the question: Why am I doing nothing to elect honest money President and honest money Congress?

What is it that keeps me in my mummified state of inaction?

This simple question will in time compel millions of Joes and Janes to stand up and be counted when Ron Paul or someone of his stature will accept the invitation to lead us back to the promised land.

EURO AND GOLD PRICE MANIPULATION, published in December 2000, http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/tlaga121100.html contains the following challenge:

All Nobel laureates in economics now living, including specifically Professor Robert Mundell, are hereby challenged to come up with a rational argument against this presentation. Nothing would please me more than to be proven wrong. But if the best of the best will not come forward and prove that I am wrong, then something will have to be done about it. And that something can only be the return to honest money...

I hereby extend this challenge to THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112801.html

Greetings!
J.N. Tlaga

PS: My e-mail box is closed because it has been flooded with variety of messages containing undisclosed software attachments. Also, countless mischief messages were being sent all over the world with my return address.

February 9, 2002

....wenn es damals schon so war - wie ist es dann jetzt :confused :schwitz
lieber nicht wissen :o aber handeln ;)

mama mia

06.06.2006, 21:37

....lesenswert - wenn auch nicht unbedingt "goldig" :rolleyes:o

Goldman Sachs Has Gained Too Much Political Power: Matthew Lynn
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Forget ``The Da Vinci Code.'' If you want to get to grips with a real conspiracy, take a look at all the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. staffers taking over important economic positions around the world.

The U.S. Treasury, the Bank of Italy and the Bank of England have all recently poached key policy makers from the world's most profitable securities firm.

While no one would dispute that New York-based Goldman Sachs is a money-making machine full of alpha-brains, it isn't healthy for so many decision-makers to be drawn from one source.

It is hard to ignore the trend for appointing Goldman employees to big government-appointed jobs. In the information technology business, they used say, ``No one ever got fired for buying IBM.'' In politics right now, the motto seems to be, ``No one ever got fired for hiring Goldman Sachs.''

U.S. President George W. Bush has just appointedGoldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Henry Paulson as his new Treasury secretary, one of the most powerful economic jobs in the world.

In January, Goldman Sachs Managing Director Mario Draghi became the new governor of the Bank of Italy. In Britain, David Walton, who was chief European economist for Goldman in London, last year joined the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, which sets U.K. interest rates. In Canada, Mark Carney, formerly managing director in Goldman's Toronto office, is now a senior official in that country's Finance Ministry.

It's not just economic jobs, either. Gavyn Davies went from Goldman to become chairman of the British Broadcasting Corp. for a few years. When someone was needed to run London's preparations for the 2012 Olympics, where did they turn? Goldman of course. Paul Deighton, a chief operating officer at the securities firm, was appointed in December. When politicians need a job filled, it seems they just shout at their secretaries: ``Get me the Goldman phone directory.''

Goldman Advisers

The traffic goes in other directions as well. Among the firm's advisers are three former European Union commissioners: Mario Monti, Peter Sutherland and Karel van Miert.

``Goldman is plugged into the powers that be in the U.S.,'' said Patrick McGurn, executive vice president at the Rockville, Maryland-based Institutional Shareholder Services. ``There are going to be areas where the interests of the Treasury Department and the U.S. and Goldman intersect. On balance, it's got to be a plus for Goldman, especially outside the U.S.''

The polite word for that is ``network.'' The impolite word is ``cronyism.''

In many ways, the desire to hire Goldman people is completely understandable. In recent years, Goldman has proved itself a formidable organization. Its profits are strong. It constantly reinvents itself. It has talent in abundance. Plenty of former Goldman staffers have done well in government. Robert Rubin, the Treasury secretary to U.S. President Bill Clinton was probably the most spectacular example.

Four Issues

Still, there are four issues that are worth thinking about.

First, it is starting to look like a bandwagon. Politicians will appoint a Goldman employee because they know the decision will get them great press. Some of the firm's success will rub off on them. Yet just as International Business Machines Corp. wasn't always the right choice for your technology department, Goldman isn't necessarily the best source of candidates for a government job. The risk is that better talent is overlooked.

Next, Goldman Sachs managers are likely to have a world view dominated by trends in financial markets. In the last decade, that might well have been right. The economy was grappling with globalization and market liberalization. Yet the next 10 years may be a period in which asset- and commodity-price inflation are the main focus. That would require policy makers who weren't groomed on a trading floor -- and you won't find them at Goldman.

Set of Preconceptions

Third, the concentration of power is starting to look unhealthy. A clan of former senior Goldman staffers is now in a position to help steer the dollar, the euro and the pound. There needn't be anything sinister about that -- though financial conspiracy theorists could have a field day with some of the connections. The issue is that they are likely to have a uniform set of preconceptions and prejudices. In any area of endeavor, it is healthy to have a wide diversity of views. Global monetary policy is no exception.

Lastly, there may be the potential for conflicts of interest. For example, policy makers might need to think whether oil speculation has to be brought under control. And Goldman is a participant in that trade. Would a former Goldman manager hammer one of his old firm's most profitable lines of business? And would they form an objective view on whether hedge and buyout funds are amassing too much influence? Maybe not.

Damage to Reputation

Goldman may not benefit from the recent appointments. Rubin presided over an era of exceptional economic strength, but Paulson won't be so lucky with the U.S.'s record budget and current-account deficits. Draghi will have to deal with an Italian economy still in a shambles, and Walton is helping set interest rates after the U.K. boom has passed.

If the Goldman staffers mess up, the reputation of the firm they came from may be damaged.

Politicians should call a moratorium. At the very least, the next time they have a big job to fill they could consider candidates from Morgan Stanley or UBS AG. Or perhaps someone who isn't an investment banker at all.

(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column:
Matthew Lynn in London at matthewlynn@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 4, 2006 19:04 EDT

mama mia

07.06.2006, 15:00

Double counting of gold by central banks may have aided the price suppression

SANGITA SHAH
Posted online: Wednesday, June 07, 2006 at 0019 hours IST

MUMBAI, JUNE 6: International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to have had apparently directed member central banks to double-count their gold when it had been leased or swapped or otherwise had left a central bank’s vault or possession. Such a provision allowance for the central banks may have led to the gold price suppression which lasted between 1989-2001, after which price started moving upwards.
Gold hit a 26-year high of $732 an ounce on May 12. Gold has dropped 11% since then. Gold has not yet been able to cross the high of $ 830 mark it hit in 1988.

Central bank of US in particular has been seen as the primary mover in suppressing the gold price by lending the gold for trading without accounting for it. However, there have been no concrete proofs in this regard.

The paper, “Treatment of Gold Swaps and Gold Deposits (Loans),” written by Hidetoshi Takeda of the IMF’s Statistics Department and published in April acknowledges at length the potential for double-counting central bank gold under current IMF rules and suggests rules to prevent it.

The research paper commissioned by the IMF appears to confirm the US based Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) Committee’s longstanding complaint that the IMF has had been active on this front.

Responding to the research paper, GATA consultant Andrew Hepburn, who discovered the double-counting of leased and swapped gold at several IMF-member central banks, remarked that even in arranging to correct the gold deposit books of its members, the IMF still would allow them to be less than forthright.

Mr Hepburn noted IMF guidelines maintaining that “to qualify as reserve assets, gold deposits must be available upon demand to the monetary authorities.” But, Mr Hepburn added, central banks have lent so much gold to suppress its price and make it less competitive as a currency that their gold loans now far exceed annual gold mine production, and so the loaned gold cannot practically be repaid “upon demand.” Recovering the central banks’ loaned gold without exploding the gold market would take years.

In any case, the IMF’s acknowledgement of the double counting of loaned or swapped central bank gold is more evidence of central bank intervention in the gold market, Chris Powell, secretary/treasurer, GATA said in his dispatch.

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=129715

mama mia

07.06.2006, 15:09

Will the Fed Kill Gold?

By The Texas Hedge
Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre

June 6, 2006

texashedge.com

So Bernanke got appointed and gold bulls cheered. After all, this was the guy who threatened to fight deflation by running the printing press while dropping money out of helicopters. Gold going to four digits and never looking back was a slam dunk, right?

Not so fast.

Central bankers are, above all else, politicians. And shrewd politicians will do whatever is politically more popular at the time. The moment Bernanke took office, the talking heads in the media kept referring to Bernanke as needing to prove his “inflation fighting credentials” before the rate hikes could end. So whether speaking on Capitol Hill or elsewhere, the spin from Bernanke was something like, “The economy is wonderful, but we just need to make sure inflation doesn’t get out of control.”

As winter turned into spring, Wall Street liked Bernanke’s tone and the stock market marched higher. Bernanke even went as far as to give clues that the rate hikes would be ending soon. Wall Street really liked this and the Dow nearly rallied to an all-time high. But in April, the new Fed Chairman started to mess up when he told a CNBC reporter at a dinner party that the public had been misreading him. A few weeks (and several hundred lost Dow points) later, Bernanke admitted to Congress that he should’ve been more careful when talking about monetary policy off the record. He called it a “lapse of judgment” on his part.

At the same time the stock market was topping in early May, the commodity markets were zooming out of control. Jumps of 5% in one day in the prices of gold and silver reminded us of 1979. All of the sudden, inflation became the talk of the town in Washington and on Wall Street. Ah, what a difference four years make!

So where are we now? Stocks, real estate and commodities have cooled off over the last several weeks yet most people still expect Bernanke to hike rates again this summer. A hike in late June would indeed solidify Bernanke’s inflation fighting credentials – or at least that is what the media wants you to think.

We like to take a much longer term view of things at the Texas Hedge Report. Yes, the short term politics of the day call for Bernanke to stop inflation. But in the long run of history, the public cares more about full employment and rising financial asset prices than they do about rising commodity prices. High food and energy prices mean protests against oil companies accompanied by dog & pony shows in Congress. High unemployment means low approval ratings, revolution and upheaval. The Fed will hike until something in the economy breaks – maybe we are starting to see that today in the form of the equity and housing markets. Bernanke says he watches the gold price everyday, so as long as he is trying to be a tough guy, we may see gold continue to take a pause. But eventually the employment situation will worsen and public fears about rising commodity prices will be replaced by fears of being laid off.

While we are not in the business of predicting monetary policy, we wouldn’t be surprised if Bernanke hikes once more and then says he’s done. We also wouldn’t be surprised if the stock market celebrated this news with a huge rally. That said, an end to the rate hikes coupled with the Dollar-bearish macro fundamentals mean that good things are in store for the precious metals. The Fed may win this round against gold, but gold will eventually win the fight.

June 6, 2006
Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre
Texas Hedge Report

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Texashedge/jun062006.html

mama mia

07.06.2006, 15:11

....faule Bande :mad:rolleyes:o ich bin doch in den Ferien :hihi
dachte ich wenigstens :rolleyes :schwitz

mama mia

12.06.2006, 15:09

Gold Action #423

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/goldaction.jpg
By: Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action

-- Posted Sunday, 11 June 2006

Interest rates around the world have been hiked. This is the being heralded by the bankers as the new panacea to cure all inflation worries. Forget about it. Although the metal prices are having a breather they are still in major long term bull trends and will continue to cause inflationary scenarios. The interest rate hikes have merely put the cap on all the leading global equity markets. How long have I been detailing the huge sell divergences that have existed for at least the past year on all major global indexes?

Global equity indexes have been topping out for a long time and displaying all the characteristics of a serious trend reversal into a bear market. The Dow has had the most dominant display of negativity with its seven year potential double top pattern. The downside crash of the past couple of weeks has been on the cards for some time, so I am not fazed by the sudden collapse. As far as I am concerned 100 point moves will now become the downside norm for the Dow. The volatility of the past has ended as the new bear trend emerges. This is a market that has stopped the three steps forward and two steps backward jive. It has moved into a protracted long term bear TREND. Trends have direction and momentum. We have entered a new trend in both direction and momentum. Get used to serious downside falls with sharp rallies. This as far as I am concerned is the new direction and pattern.

Metals on the other hand are merely taking a breather inside an ongoing long term bull trend. Whereas all the global general equity markets have for the past year been exhibiting serious sell divergences there are no similar divergences on the metal charts. The oscillators on these charts have reflected the new highs and this indicates the metals are in stable long term bull trends. In the short term the metal prices were overbought as I have previously indicated. But this is a relatively minor correction in an ongoing resources bull trend. This is not, in my analysis, a major metal price topping out.

I must continue to rate the current price levels as serious buying areas for both metal traders and investors in their shares. The gold price in particular has mapped out a falling wedge that will lead to a huge upside catapult once the current shakeout has ended.

I previously analyzed the Rand to weaken back up to the R6,85 level. It has hit my target and I expect to see some consolidation at current levels with even a pullback to test the R6.65 area. But I expect further long term weakness in the currency and any strengthening back to R6.60 should be used as a selling area for the Rand.

All the data indicates that the correction in the gold price is very nearly finished. The overall picture is one of a forced situation that is likely to reverse rapidly into a fierce upside catapult once it is realized that global markets are into declining mode and that there is no money to be made by remaining invested in their shares or unit trusts.

China’s growth is unlikely to slow for the next three years and the overall demand for metals is likely to continue unabated. Internal growth in China is the key to metal prices. There is a misconception that China must export the bulk of its production. By 2010 China will be virtually able to consume its total production as its population billions convert to middle class status at a growth rate in excess of 25% per year. This explosion in the Chinese and Indian middle class buying power will far exceed that of the US and Europe.

Do not panic out of the resources shares. Sure you can panic out of general equities as they have turned into bear markets. But the resources are having a mild correction before exploding to new highs. I remain very bullish on all resource stocks.

Have you noticed the absence of all the sudden gold experts during the current correction that were calling for telephone numbers in their projections??? They are conspicuous by their silence.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/1.JPG

This is a metal price index of Cu, Au, Pb, Fe, Zn, for the past hundred years adjusted for inflation. There are several major aspects to note from this data.

There has been a consistent downtrend in the inflation adjusted value of metal prices for the past 100 years.

There is a median line in black drawn through this data.

Every time the index moves above or below the median it always comes back to test the median and in most cases overshoots.

The sudden rise in 1980 was the oil price inflation spike as metals followed suit.

The current level is well below that of the 1930’s depression. Thus metal prices relative to inflation are historically dramatically under valued.

For the past three years the index has started to reverse back to the median and is likely to exceed this level in the current bull trend.

BUT the key to this data is that China and India were not great consumers during the past 100 years.

These billions of consumers have kicked in and there is a strong probability that the current upside move in the index in red is not just a reversal back to the median.

There is strong evidence to support the start of a major new bull market that signals the end of 100 years of a relative bear market in metal prices.

The message is clear. This is potentially a major trend reversal in metal prices that will be with us for a very long time. Get used to higher metal prices both on an every day and inflation adjusted basis.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/2.JPG

I am reproducing a large picture of the daily $ gold price for several reasons. First it has mapped out a classic falling wedge pattern. This indicates an almost vertical catapult once the current correction has ended. Second it is necessary to note that there are no sell divergences on this data. Both the MACD in the top frame and RSI in the bottom frame have mirrored the new highs of the metal price. This indicates a stable bull market. I continue to look at this as a minor correction in a long term bull run.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/3.JPG

I again detail my Elliott wave analysis of gold. The falling wedge pattern in the top chart is the 7-8 correction in this chart. There is still red wave 9 to come that must take the gold price well above its previous high. I would look for an upside well in excess of $800 before the end of this long tem bull run. This will be the area of the market that will exude euphoria and every man and his dog will become an expert on gold as it becomes the easiest game in town in which to make money. At the present time of doom that does not seem possible. But just wait and see!!

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/4.JPG

The Dollar / Rand chart has hit up against the major resistance level at R6.85. I had analysed previously that I was looking for a weaker currency to revert back to this level. Where to now? To me the key to this data is the length of the divergence. A two year divergence does not fizzle out into a small reversal. It usually subtends a much larger upside potential. Thus I must look for a period of minor consolidation in the Rand before breaking through the R6.85 level and on to at least R7.50.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/5.JPG

Copper is shown with its momentum indicator. The momentum is a particularly sensitive oscillator to divergences. I have detailed all the sell and buy divergences previously shown to indicate the nature of the data. The current price high shows no signs of any sell divergence. This indicates it is in a strong and stable bull trend. It also indicates that new highs will be made once this current minor correction has run its course. Copper, and all the metals, remain in strong bull markets that should move to new highs.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/6.JPG

The Rand price of Gold has also accelerated away to new highs. The momentum oscillator has also mirrored the new highs, as have all the other commonly used oscillators. This is symptomatic of a strong and stable bull trend. The minor drift over the past couple of weeks is just that … a minor correction prior to moving into a new bull market peak.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/7.JPG

The Gold price has yet another bullish piece of data. Take a look at the relative positions of L1 and L2 on the oscillators. In both the MACD in the top frame and the RSI in the bottom frame L2 is at least back down to the low of L1. Not so with the metal price where L2 is nowhere near to the level of L1. This is a classic example of a reverse divergence situation. This is a hugely BULLISH formation and indicates a strong upside move.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/8.JPG

Whilst the metals have been taking a breather the grains have started to play catch up. The grain sector of the commodities picture has under performed to such an extent that has been ignored. However this is an area of the commodities spectrum that is ready for some serious long term upside action. For commodity traders go and take a good look at the charts of corn, soya and coffee. They are all exuding long term bullish potential. This is the chart of CBOT Corn and any minor drift should be used as a buying area.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/2006/6-11ga/9.JPG

Finally the Dow chart has the sell divergences to which I have alluded on numerous occasions. But the key to this data is the support level at 10 700. This is a massive chart support. A move under this will really send the bear market trend into top gear. The S&P and NASDAQ have similar data.

-- Posted Sunday, 11 June 2006
Technical Analysis Course: http://www.charts.co.za (http://www.charts.co.za/)

Website analysis: http://www.utm.co.za (http://www.utm.co.za/)

Gold Action is a fortnightly commentary on global gold markets produced by Dr. Clive Roffey who has been a leading independent commentator on gold markets since 1969.
Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/)

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/1150074000.php

mama mia

12.06.2006, 15:16

:( ;)

mama mia

12.06.2006, 15:44

...von http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/image.php3?u=1431&dateline=1132256758 :verbeug

http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showpost.php3?p=931543&postcount=10456

mama mia

13.06.2006, 16:11

mama mia

13.06.2006, 19:56

:(:(

mama mia

14.06.2006, 08:30

...von dohanics :verbeug

http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showpost.php3?p=932461&postcount=10849

mama mia

14.06.2006, 14:55

Staring Into The Abyss

Roland Watson
June 14, 2006

The parachutist is confident of the large gaping abyss that is open before him. Though he can only see impenetrable darkness ahead, he is prepared to jump. He is confident that all will be well and that exhilaration rather than death will be his experience. Why is he so confident? Because others have gone before him and assured him that a bottom exists and that a soft landing is assured if handled properly.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson061406/1.jpg Are we talking about the current pullback in gold prices or perhaps the disruption in the equity markets? As you may guess from the picture above, I am talking about the US dollar and the abyss that it currently hovers over. Talk about multiple deficits and central banks overweight with dollar reserves are mainstream talk and in no wise can be called contrarian views. In fact, it is expected that the dollar continues its downward motion to rectify the various imbalances that are present in the world economy.

Does that mean we should offer a contrarian call and declare the end of the dollar bear market? Not quite, but we should make clear what the battle lines are. Back in June of 2005 I said this concerning the dollar rally:

We have just seen a 3.5-year down move; a 6-month rally constitutes 14% of that which doesn't look long enough to me. A look at historically similar moves suggests perhaps twice that which would draw out our rally to the end of this year or early in 2006."

As it happened the US dollar index rallied to the middle of November before commencing its downward motion. The chart below show the entire rally to date and also shows how gold's price action has generally moved in the opposite direction. The question before us is whether this downward move since November commences the next leg of the dollar bear market or is merely part of a greater corrective pattern?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson061406/2_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson061406/2.gif) The entire move since December 2004 is actually a sequence of three wave corrective patterns. I could superimpose several Elliott Wave patterns upon this chart, but there is one thing I would rather focus on today.

That thing is what I would call the Maginot Line of the US Dollar Index. For those not familiar with recent European history, the Maginot Line was a series of fortifications built by the French in the 1930s to prevent a direct assault on France's eastern border by Nazi forces. As it happened, Hitler's forces to the north along the Belgian and Dutch borders easily breached the line with France. For this reason, the Line is often seen as a metaphor for resistance that is ultimately futile. However, the Maginot Line that is arrayed against any assault against the US dollar seems to be a different proposition. To date this line has not been breached since 1978, a period of 28 years.

By way of background knowledge, what is the US Dollar Index? It is a geometric weighted average of the change in six foreign currency exchange rates against the US Dollar relative to March 1973. Those six currencies with their weightings are the Euro (57.6%), the Japanese Yen (13.6%), the British Pound (11.9%), the Canadian Dollar (9.1%), the Swedish Krona (4.2%) and the Swiss Franc (3.6%). Clearly the Euro and the Yen can have the greatest influence on the value of this index.

March 1973 was when the world's major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely against each other and the index measures the dollar's general value relative to this date which is set to 100.00. A current quote of 86.00 means the dollar's value has fallen 14% against these six other currencies since this base period.

With that introduction, we display the value of the US Dollar Index for the last 35 years (chart courtesy of Nick Laird at Sharelynx (http://www.sharelynx.net/)). In terms of upward motion, the index has been quite volatile hitting highs of 160 and 120. However, it is a different story on the down side. On no less than five occasions since 1978, the line of Maginot support (see channel "support" below) has been challenged and held firm. Those dates were 1978, 1990, 1992, 1995 and 2004. The most successful assault was 1992 when a brief foray into the high 70s was achieved. All other "attacks" have stumbled at the 80 to 83 region.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson061406/3_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson061406/3.gif) Now in early 2006 (see first chart), we have seen a sixth assault on the index touch 83 twice in a matter of weeks before retreating once again. With that withdrawal we have also seen gold and silver enter major corrections. Is this a coincidence? I think not.

Despite the other longer-term fundamentals in favor of gold, this is for now a dollar bear market versus gold bull market. In broad terms, when the dollar goes down, gold goes up. But what is the one thing that will stop the gold bull in its tracks? It is this Dollar Maginot Line, if this is not ultimately breached; the gold bull market is halted in its tracks. In that situation, the best gold could hope for is a replay of 1990 to 1995 when this line was tested three times before gold gave up and a new dollar bull market commenced.

As of today, that line has been tested twice, 2004 and early 2006. If the 1990s is anything to go by, it will be three strikes and "You're out!" for gold if the third assault fails.

So what are the prospects for this Maginot line being finally broken? Firstly, what could see the dollar bull win the day? The answer to that is partly dependent on the Federal Reserve. For two years now, the Fed has raised the overnight rate 16 times from 1% to 5% at the last meeting in May. This has made the dollar more attractive to investors seeking decent returns and the rally in the US Dollar Index since December 2004 is a delayed effect of those interest rates hikes feeding into the US economy and beyond.

Just as the cuts in the short-term interest rate from 6% to 1% were bearish for the US dollar between 2000 and 2003, so these recent increases have proven to be bullish. The question is how bullish? Despite adding 4% to the base rate, the dollar has only recouped at most 20% of its losses since the year 2000. The questions that still remain to be answered in this respect are how long will it take for the full effect of these rate hikes to finally be felt? Secondly, is the Fed finished with rate hikes? The consensus is that Bernanke is concerned about the effects of Peak Oil and its increasing inflationary effects. If he enters full firefighting mode against inflation, we can not only expect higher interest rates and a continuing positive real rate of interest but also recession some time in 2007 or 2008. Both are bearish for gold.

The second factor going for a resumed dollar bull is the recession I just mentioned. Here we mention the ongoing trade, current account and federal deficits that are alleged to trouble the dollar. I say "problem" but actually the evidence here is not so convincing. The actual problem is too many dollars being created; these deficits are merely effects of that underlying cause. The reasoning here is that the decreasing liquidity mentioned above will begin to contract the US economy and reduce the consumer demands for imports. Less imports means a shrinking of the trade and current account deficit (assuming exports shrink less) and perceived confidence in the export power of the dollar returns. Once again, this is bearish for gold - at least until the Fed is forced to revive the economy again with interest rate cuts.

In opposition to these ideas, what could be the events that would plunge the US dollar into the darkness that is below our multi-decade Maginot Line? Going back to the composition of our US Dollar Index, we noted that the Euro and Yen are the two largest components. In other words, if this index is going to drop below 80, the Euro and Yen have to appreciate against the US dollar.

In terms of the Yen, this is almost a certainty. If the expected suppression of the Yen by its own government is about to end, the Yen should gain against the dollar. In fact, the Yen has been tracing out a series of higher lows against the dollar since 1998. There is resistance for the Yen at the 100 level, but if the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Policy is indeed going to end, then this will assuredly be broken to the detriment of the US Dollar Index.

What about the Euro? With over half of the index weighting, the Euro will have the biggest say in this matter. Once again, the signs are bearish for the dollar. The push to trade crude oil in euros instead of dollars has been gaining momentum in Iran, Venezuela as well as Russia. This will obviously increase demand for euros and decrease demand for dollars and send the US Dollar Index down.

Moreover, some of these petroeuros will find their way into the currency reserves of oil exporting countries. The final question is whether other countries will follow suit and diversify out of dollars? We know they are already, will that continue? If Japan is no longer going to keep the Yen down, they won't be needing all those billions of US dollars they got in exchange for selling Yen. Moreover, if China is going to decelerate the expansion of the Yuan money supply (which has been as high as 24% per annum), they will not be exchanging as many Yuan for US dollars. Assuredly, the central banks of the world are top heavy in dollars and that amount is certain to decrease in the years to come.

So, the battle line is firmly drawn. Will the Maginot Line of 80 hold or will the US dollar bounce around that level for a year or two more before resuming a new bull run?

One thing is for sure, the fate of the gold bull market for this decade depends upon it.

Roland Watson
email: newerainvestor@yahoo.co.uk

Roland Watson writes the investment newsletter The New Era Investor that can be purchased for an annual subscription of $99. To view a sample copy of the newsletter, please go to www.newerainvestor.com (http://www.newerainvestor.com/) and click on the "View Sample Issue Here."

He invites comments and questions at: newerainvestor@yahoo.co.uk.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson061406.html

mama mia

14.06.2006, 15:25

CHARTWORKS - JUN 12, 2006
Precious Metals

Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
written Jun 12, 2006
posted Jun 14, 2006

Gold and silver are now into the time window that satisfies a nominal correction from the May highs. An assessment of the technicals suggests that support should be found at $570 in gold and 123 (more importantly 114) in the XAU. Silver could bottom as early as June 13th.

The Big Picture

As long as gold holds above $460 the major bull market is considered to be in motion. This allows for a 50% correction ($493) of the complete rally from $255, a test of the support line (on a deflated basis) and a test of the 50-month moving average. This permits a cleanout similar to the equity's market correction of 1987. Such a 'financial panic' would not alter the long term picture of an extended bull market into the next decade.

click on chart to enlarge http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/13_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/13.gif) Gold vs Commodities

Gold became overbought relative to the CRB basket of commodities as of May and is now down 18% in the past four weeks. This matches a similar break in July 1980 following a top in the Gold/CRB at 2.35. A 23% correction occurred twice in 1983 from high Gold/CRB ratios. In today's environment such a percentage decline would produce a low of $562.

click on chart to enlarge http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/01_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/01.gif) The 50% Rule

Gold has an uncanny tendency to make 50% corrective pullbacks while in bull markets. The key is from which starting point to measure the correction. The use of an RSI(14) on weekly charts can be used to establish the last time the price was into a neutral or oversold condition. Readings below 45 have been successful for this exercise. On that basis we can use the move from $410 of one year ago to this year's high and establish an optimum target of $571. In some instances the price will bounce marginally for a week, top out below the midpoint of the preceding bounce and then take out the low by 1% before making a sustainable rally. This type of 'spring' or 'isolated low' is quite common in gold. Therefore a bounce off the initial low (assumed to be around $571) should allow for a close into the mid $560's as part of the basing process.

On the upside, the initial rally into the summer should retrace 40% to 60% of the decline from $730. Assuming that prices reverse from around $571, the initial upside resistance should be in the range of $635 to $665.

Looking down the road. . . following a recovery from this selloff it is imperative that these lows hold over the coming months otherwise we could be in for a correction of the complete advance from 2001. This would provide support at $493.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/03.gif Previous examples 1972 to 1975
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/02.gif 1977 to 1980
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/04.gif

1986 to 1990
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/05.gif Silver

Sequential Buy Setups are common at the end of corrective phases in the bull market of silver. If prices close below $11.84 through Tuesday then we will have had nine consecutive days with closes below the low of four days earlier and a 'setup' will be in place.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/07.gif Seasonally, this market comes out of the weak period by the end of June and has a tendency to do well through September.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/silver_seasonal.gif Following significant tops in the past three decades the silver market has managed to produce an oversold reading of -200 in the CCI(20) at the end of most corrections. A subsequent upside reversal through -100 confirms that the bottom is in place. Risk can then be controlled 2% below the corresponding low. (The index is currently at -155)

Since April 19th three key supports were anticipated to be the 34-day, 100-day and 89-week moving averages. Thursday and Friday's action is into support and if prices can reverse to close above $11.40 this week then the upside target becomes $13.60.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/09.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/09.gif) XAU

Most major corrective lows in the XAU occur around the Fibonacci retracement point of 61.8%. On this basis, the targeted support is 114. The current low has been at 123, a 50% correction of the past twelve month's rally.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/08.gif Previous examples http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/11.gif http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/10.gif http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/12.gif Technical comments on individual stocks http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406/table.gif -Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com

(http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/)CHARTWORKS - JUN 12, 2006

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.

Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.

321gold Inc
http://www.321gold.com/images/home2.gif (http://www.321gold.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406.html

mama mia

15.06.2006, 18:58

DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
The Gold Report
How Low Can You Go?

Enrico Orlandini
15 June, 2006
written 14 Jun

What a difference a month makes! On May 9th the gold spot price hit 730.00 and yet by today, June 14th, we've come all the way back down to 565.00. Last month the gold bugs were the talk of Wall Street and today they couldn't buy a friend with a fist full of Krugerrands. I must say, the Wall Street crowd is certainly a fickle bunch. The average investor in gold is under considerable stress at the moment and most are reduced to "hoping" as the carnage in the gold pits reaches a crescendo. Certainty and joy have left the building while hope and despair have taken their place. Hope has been responsible for turning more dollars into cents than just about any other factor that comes to mind. It has been the ruin of many investors. All but the most sophisticated investors have spent the last two or three days dumping their positions in gold and gold stocks and you could literally see the panic on the computer screen yesterday as the price of the yellow metal plummeted $44.50. To make matters worse, it was down another $10.00 on the Globex late last night.

The e-mails I receive serve as a pain gauge so to speak and yesterday it went off the charts. One e-mail in particular summed it all up: I was informed that Richard Russell, a long time gold bull, had written an article declaring that gold was in a bear market now and would be declining for a year or so. That caught my attention because I had just read a short piece written by Mr. Russell on Saturday and was surprised to hear that he had come out with another article on gold in such a short period of time. I searched the internet but to no avail, and it finally dawned on me that the client was referring to the same article I read over the weekend. I went back over the article just to refresh my memory and the word bear was nowhere to be seen. Mr. Russell did state that he felt it would be a matter of months before we bottomed and consolidated that bottom. I disagree, but more on that latter. I would also like to remind readers that Mr. Russell, along with just about everyone else, felt gold had topped at 644.00. The actual top was 739.20 in the August gold futures contract.

So what does one do when things get confusing? Well, the first thing I do is try to slow things down. The hustle and bustle of everyday activity tends to distort one's vision and thinking. I slow things down by a shift in emphasis from daily charts to monthly charts and below you have our old friend, the Monthly Chart for gold:

[click to enlarge chart] http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini061506/1_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini061506/1.gif) Please note how gold spiked up and above the upper band of the trend as it exceeded the $730.00 price in early May. The last week's price action is not included here, but if it were, you would see that the uptrend in gold that began back in 2001 is still intact. In fact, it isn't even close to being under any duress. There is only one conclusion to draw from this chart and the present price action in gold: the bull market in gold is alive and doing quite well!

Now with the above chart firmly in mind, let's see if we can make some sense out of the shorter term movements and restore some semblance of sanity to our lives. Let's take a look at the Weekly Chart of gold below and you'll see that all gold has done is return to the range we broke out from. No more and no less! Although it seems like decades ago, you may recall that gold spent months consolidating gains before we began this latest move up. We traded in a range (535.00 to 575.00 for what seemed like an eternity. There is nothing unusual about a commodity or index returning to the range after an initial breakout. Try to remember that we are discussing gold and it is just beginning the second phase of what will be a three (and maybe four) phase bull market lasting no less than another four years and it could very well stretch into the middle of the next decade. When seen in that context, yesterday's $44.50 decline really doesn't mean much, if anything at all.

There are two areas of support: one is obvious from the chart and one isn't. The obvious support is the 50-week moving average at 526.52 and its held up nicely for several years. The not-so-obvious support is at 553.24 bases the August gold futures contract and is my bet for a bottom. This would be a 25% correction and was my original estimate for a correction once a top was in. Assuming that 553.24 holds up on a closing basis, I would then expect a one to three month consolidation period where price fluctuates between 550.00 on the low side to 575.00 on the high side. After that, we should be off to the races again with resistance at $569.70 and $644.70 in the spot price. Then we'll see another test of 728.60, probably by the end of the year:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini061506/2.gif Finally, I would like to make one additional comment with respect to gold and the bottom I see here. I have followed gold for twenty-five years and I have never seen bearishness like I see now. If there was a gauge for bearishness, we would be off the charts. That's usually the best indicator for a bottom that you can find and that is why I bought gold last night and again this morning.

I would like to close now with a few words on silver and gold stocks. With respect to the former, silver will bottom when gold does and not one minute before. Once we know gold has bottomed and consolidated silver may follow or it may lead as it did before. We'll just have to wait and see. Gold stocks are another and extremely complicated issue. Let's take a look at a Weekly Chart for the HUI below:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini061506/3.gif Under normal circumstances, I would tell you that the HUI bottomed and will bounce off the 50-week moving average, but we are not living in normal times. The HUI is suffering from a double whammy of declining gold prices as well as a declining DJIA. As most clients are aware, I feel the DJIA has topped and we are about to begin a vicious decline. That decline will depress gold shares even if gold rallies from here and that effect could last for up to six months. Maybe even a bit longer. With that in mind, each investor must decide how much pain he is willing to endure. As most of you already know, I will sit tight.

-Enrico OrlandiniFor those of you interested in receiving information on the Gold Fund we manage, please feel free to e-mail us at ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com and we will respond as soon as possible.

email: ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com
website: www.dowtheoryanalysis.com
(http://www.dowtheoryanalysis.com/)Orlandini Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Enrico+Orlandini)

DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
formerly LASCO REPORT
Ignacio Merino 636
Santa Cruz
Miraflores, Peru

Recent

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini061506.html

mama mia

15.06.2006, 19:11

:rolleyes

mama mia

16.06.2006, 12:57

Global central banks sell 103.7 tonne gold

COMMODITIES, ECONOMY BUREAU
Posted online: Friday, June 16, 2006 at 0000 hours IST

MUMBAI, JUNE 15: Central banks across the world sold 103.7 tonne of gold during the quarter ended June. According to World Gold Council (WGC), the world’s total official gold holdings have marginally declined to 30,733.1 tonne till June 7, from 30,836.8 tonne at the end of March 2006. The selling from central banks came at a time when the prices hit a 26-year high of $732 an ounce in mid-May.
Gold from official holdings was primarily sold by Netherlands (40 tonne), followed by France (29.6 tonne), BIS (24 tonne), Switzerland (15 tonne), Austria (7 tonne) and the Philippines (10 tonne). Eight other countries sold in paltry volumes between 0.1-2.7 tonne in the June quarter.

The sales were partly offset by purchases from some countries such as Portugal ( 19.9 tonne), Sweden (11.9 tonne) and Chile (3.1 tonne), Belarus bought 1.9 tonne of gold along with Ukraine (0.6 tonne). ;)

However, analysts expect a decline in sales by various central banks as the correlation between the dollar and gold seems to be more important now. About 8% of the central banks polled in an annual UBS AG survey said they are planning to diversify foreign-exchange reserves away from US government debt into gold, Bloomberg stated.

"This is the first time that central banks have shown an inclination to buy gold for diversification purposes,’’ said UBS analyst John Reade in a report. WGC data states that United States continues to top the list of 110 countries with 8,135 tonne, lower 0.10 tonne since March. Germany and IMF retained their positions as the second and third highest gold holders.

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=130722

mama mia

16.06.2006, 16:53

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/share/line_bg.gif
Gold Whacked by Selling Funds

(javascript:biowindow('bio.html','BIO','top=50,left=200,width=575,height=550'))
By Roger Wiegand http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/bio.gif (javascript:biowindow('bio.html','BIO','top=50,left=200,width=575,height=420')) http://www.kitco.com/images/mailicon.gif (traderrog@comcast.net) http://www.kitco.com/images/printicon.gif (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/printerfriendly/jun162006p.html)
June 16, 2006

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/share/bg_trans.gif www.tradertracks.com (http://www.tradertracks.com/)

“Take all the fools out of this world and there wouldn’t be any fun living in it, or profit.” –Josh Billings

Funds have sold for profits. The consumers and smaller retail investors are selling in fear. Smart traders are holding for the pivot reverse and following gold rally.

OUCH !!!!!!

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Wiegand/jun162006_1.jpg

The most important thing this chart is saying; $550 is supported and price is above the 200 day moving average. Other things are: (1) This cycle is within normal calendar parameters, (2) The momentum is below zero so should reverse soon, (3) Gold is oversold and, (4) The fundamentals propelling gold have not changed one iota. Further, they are more favorable than ever. Do not be fooled and believe the gold ride over. It’s only started.

Dollar Corrects and Finds the 50 day Moving Average

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Wiegand/jun162006_2.jpg

Dollar’s most recent and visible bear market began in mid-November, 2005. Overall, it began several years ago. In May and June it double bottomed near 83.00 and will seek 88.00 on a new intermediate high. Look what the dollar did last summer from July 1 through September 1. Expect a repeat performance falling from the lower low at 88.00 to 82.00. After 82.00, expect range bound trading in the fall, with more selling thereafter. In our view, when the dollar breaks below 80.00 and closes three times, 77.50 is next. This event will cause gold to trade above $850 moving to $1050 in first quarter of 2007.

Review the longer term gold and dollar charts on the next page for additional confirmation.

Monthly Gold Chart Most Accurate of All

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Wiegand/jun162006_3.jpg

Major technical points supporting gold for higher prices are:

1. Gold has not reached the old chart high near $850 which is strongest resistance,
2. The momentum lines are near 10-15, not yet near 40 as in 1980.
3. The $500 dotted line is very major support after $550 to remain in bull mode.
4. The angled channel line at $500 is a secondary support, doubling support for price with dotted line). For example, the channel line and dotted line equal double reinforcement for the price support at that level with all three indicators converging.
5. Top angled channel line is on $550. We have not violated this price on a close.
6. While price traded briefly on the futures below $550, it did not close there.
7. Gold is two years longer today in the bull rally time frame (6 years vs. 4 in late 1970’s).
8. The 1970’s gold rally rate of increase from $125 to $850 versus today’s example of $250 basis would place the future gold top at $2040 without any inflation adjustments. When those adjustments are imposed gold’s price will fly off the charts.

Weekly Dollar Chart Shows Price Collapse

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Wiegand/jun162006_4.jpg

Major Technical Points for Selling Dollars are:

1. Head and shoulders top from July 2005 to April 2006 is wide and significant. This is a standard bearish chart pattern.
2. Dotted red line at 85.00 and angled channel line above 90.00 forms a bear flag telling us big selling ahead.
3. Prices reaching for new tops or bottoms hits (achieves) on 3rd or 4th try. Attempt number two at cracking the 80.00 bottom is next. The third or fourth attempt should push prices below 80.00 with closes.
4. Momentum is barely ½ to 1 below zero on the right hand chart measure. Starting with a lower high today this provides lots of running room for new, much lower lows in momentum.
5. An extreme dollar low using retracement math puts the dollar at 61.80
6. On this weekly chart, price remains under both 17 and 43 day averages.

Consumer Index Shows Weakness in Price Near the 200 Day Average of 598.19

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Wiegand/jun162006_5.jpg

Consumers represent 70% of the USA economy. As they grow weaker and overcome by inflation, gold will substitute for fiat currency, notes, bonds and bills in an effort to hold or increase buying power. The consumer’s last engine of borrowing, the residential re-financing, is coming to a close. Billions in ARM real estate loans are coming due for re-setting to permanent mortgages. With dropping equity values, higher energy costs and increased taxes of several varieties, it is obvious as to this outcome. Defaults and foreclosures are increasing at a rapid clip taking consumer buying power and steam out of the economy. This problem is not reserved for the United States. Similar conditions are apparent in the U.K. and Australia.

Summary

Gold has found support or is very close to it with no major technical violations forecasting more selling. The dollar is in mild recovery after hitting the basement floor again. The primary trend is down as America’s friends and enemies alike are shunning and off-loading USA dollars sinking in valuation. Wise investors understand all paper currencies will suffer the same fate but America’s dollar has hit the skids faster than the others because of massive over-printing, dilution and devaluation. Gold is the only thing left of value as a currency and storehouse of value. This is of particular concern as oil producers are selling dollars, trading oil for other currencies and buying gold.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/jun162006.html

mama mia

16.06.2006, 20:01

Alphier's method

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
Jun 16, 2006

Extracted from the Jun 15, 2006 edition of Richard's Remarks

Back in the '70s I corresponded with a brilliant analyst named James Alphier. James worked on a market method which he called "prolonged liquidation." Alphier's work is pretty much forgotten today, but he discovered a system for identifying major market bottoms. This is how Alphier's method works. Each week count how many days the S&P closed up and how many days it closed down. If there is a day that the index is exactly unchanged, give that day the sign of the previous day. Forget about holidays or any day in which the market is closed. Each week go back over the past 14 weeks and count how many total days are up and how many are down. If, in the past 14 weeks there are at least 17 more down days than up days, you have a major bottom and a buy signal.

That "formula" worked amazingly well in calling all the major market bottoms since 1932.

Does this kind of analysis work on individual stocks or on other indices? I don't know the answer -- maybe some ambitious subscriber will do the research. However, I have never forgotten Alphier's thinking on this subject. Very few analysts calculate the number of days up or down in the various sectors. I do, in the sectors that I'm interested in.

For instance, most recently I counted gold rising on 16 out of 19 days. This means that gold rose an incredible 84.2% of the days over a 19 day period. That was the most "extreme" or lop-sided rise I had ever seen. I called the rise "ridiculous" and I felt that we had seen an extreme of outlandish bullishness. I wrote at the peak of this series that the rise in gold had to be over.

In general I note that the longer any rise or decline, the more dependable this method of calling market turns tends to be. The percentage number I watch is 80% or more of advances or declines over a specified period of time.

Yesterday I wrote that gold had declined an amazing 8 days in a row and that gold had closed down on 10 of the last 12 days. That means that gold was lower on 83.3% of the last 12 days. This is impressive, but a test period of 12 days is a bit short. I'd prefer that the study had consumed 15 or 18 days rather than only 12 days. The longer, the better -- and the more accurate. But down 83.3% over 12 days is still very impressive and it implies a downside panic -- even capitulation. Adding to the percentage study, I noted that HUI and GDX were both up yesterday.

What I'm trying to measure is the degree of fear that has been generated in the gold picture, just as I tried to measure the degree of bullishness generated as gold was topping out on May 11. We'll see how this study works, although, as I said, I would have preferred a longer period of days.

On the basis of the above study, I added to my gold position yesterday.

lots more follows for subscribers...

Jun 15, 2006
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters (http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf)
Russell Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Richard+Russell)
© Copyright 1958-2006 Dow Theory Letters, Inc.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell061606.html

....hmmm - hat wohl seine Meinung geändert :rolleyes

mama mia

16.06.2006, 21:32

Rohstoff Express: Soros löst Sell Off aus! Gold fällt massiv!

Leser des Artikels: 3636

News zu: Gold, Benzin, Heizöl, Rohöl, ZuckerDie Investmentlegende George Soros sagte in einem gestern auf CNBC veröffentlichten Interview eine Fortsetzung der Korrektur bei den Rohstoffen voraus. Laut Soros hat die japanische Zentralbank ungefähr 200 Milliarden US Dollar an überschüssiger Liquidität aus den Märkten abgezogen, die vorwiegend in den Emerging Markets und auch Rohstoffen investiert war. Des weiteren erwartet der Strategie einen fallenden US Dollar sowie einen Zusammenbruch der weltweiten Immobilienpreise.
Ob Soros mit all seinen Thesen Recht behalten wird, kann ich nicht beurteilen allerdings ist der heutige Sell Off im August Gold Future mit Sicherheit auf den Status von George Soros zurückzuführen. Dieser hat allein im letzten Jahr 840 Millionen Dollar an Gehalt verdient und ist damit der weltweit bestbezahlteste Hedge Fond Manager. Es gibt viele andere Fondmanager die dem Rat von George Soros folgen und ein öffentlich ausgestrahltes Interview mit derart düsteren Prognosen, wird von vielen Finanzstrategen als Argument genommen um ihre Positionen aufzulösen.
Der Gold Future ist inzwischen durch alle Fibonacci Marken gefallen und derart überverkauft, dass die Gegenreaktion kurz bevor stehen sollte. Natürlich ist es wichtig wie bei all meinen Empfehlungen nicht „market“ zu kaufen sondern ausschließlich per Stop Buy oder Sell. Hierzu würde ich raten sich im 60 Minuten Chart näher umzusehen.

............

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/nachricht/1884088.html

....von 4604 im Daily :)

mama mia

19.06.2006, 11:37

Verfasst von Walter K. Eichelburg (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=51) am 19.06.2006 um 9:14 Uhr
Gold - The Empire Stroke Back

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2784_1.pngSeit einigen Wochen sind die Gold- und Silberpreise auf Talfahrt. Laufend kommen besorgte E-Mails und auch Telefonanrufe - was denn da los sei. Kurz gesagt, einige Faktoren sind zusammengetroffen, die alle Edelmetall-Preise heruntergerissen haben. Natürlich war auch ein gutes Stück Manipulation von den Zentralbanken dabei: Das Papiergeld-Imperium hat zurückgeschlagen. Dieser Artikel geht auf die Hintergründe ein, und wie lange diese "Korrektur" wahrscheinlich noch dauern wird.

Der Einbruch

Der Einbruch bei den Gold- und Silberpreisen seit Mitte Mai 2006 ist beachtlich. Von 518 US$/oz zu Jahresbeginn stieg der Goldpreis auf ca. 728 $/oz (über 18.000 €/kg) Anfang Mai 2006, um dann auf ca. 530 $/oz abzusinken. Im Moment liegt er bei 578 $/oz (14.709 €/kg).

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2784_2.png

Silber hat noch rasanter angezogen und ist von ca. 9 $/oz zu Jahresbeginn auf ca. 15 $/oz (über 380 €/kg) gestiegen, um dann wieder auf unter 10 $ abzusinken (50%). Im Moment liegt es bei 10,13 $ (257 €/kg). Wahrlich ein massiver Anstieg, gefolgt von einer brutalen Korrektur.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2784_3.png

Was ist passiert?

Laut einen Bericht des britischen Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/05/13/cncopp13.xml) waren einige Banken in England mit Kupferspekulationen in "Schieflage", denn der Kupferpreis ist noch stärker gestiegen als der Goldpreis. Laut Jim Sinclair ( www.jsmineset.com (http://www.jsmineset.com/), 17.6.2006) mußte sie die Bank of England retten. Nachdem sie kein Kupfer hatte, hat sie Gold auf den Markt geworfen und damit die Hedge-Fonds (mehrere Autoren nennen sie "Black Boxes") aus allen Rohstoff-Futures getrieben, auch Gold und Silber. Das Papiergeld-Imperium hat also in der üblichen Weise (siehe auch Dietmar Siebholz in "Ist der Edelmetall-Boom zu Ende (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2775)"?), zurückgeschlagen. Natürlich hat ihm der hohe Goldpreis weh getan. Das war der 1. Schritt.

Der 2. Schritt kam aus den USA. Dort hat der neue Federal Reserve (Fed) Chef Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke plötzlich den "Inflation-Fighter" herausgekehrt. Bill Buckler berichtet in seinem letzten Privateer ("The US bankers - meet their bankers"), daß den US-Bank-Managern vor einigen Wochen gesagt wurde, daß die Inflation mit höheren Zinsen bekämpft werde. Darauf haben diese offenbar den US-Hedge-Fonds die Kreditlinien gekürzt, oder es zumindest angedroht. Das Resultat: Diese Fonds haben alles abverkauft, was verkaufbar war, um Kredite zurückzuzahlen: Aktien in Europa und Asien, Rohstoff-Futures, etc.

Dazu muß gesagt werden, daß diese Fonds (die Banken selbst machen es auch) großteils auf Kredit spekulieren. Damit sind sie verwundbar.

Das Kuriose dabei: steigende Inflationserwartungen und damit höhere Zinsen führten zum Abverkauf von Gold und Silber (Futures), die eigentlich Hedges (Absicherungen) gegen höhere Inflation sind. Diese Abverkäufe kommen von den eingesetzten Computerprogrammen der Fonds, die nur Trends beobachten und danach ordern. Der große Silberanalyst Ted Butler (http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html) nennt sie "brain-dead" also gehirntot. Und alle diese Programme reagieren ähnlich - wie eine Herde. Daher auch die große Volatilität. Laut Jim Sinclair bewegen sie sich wie ein Elefant im Porzellanladen - sie zerstören alles beim Eintritt und beim Herausgehen.

Wie geht es weiter?

In der Zwischenzeit dürfte bei der Fed die große Angst eingekehrt sein. Helicopter Ben dürfte einen ordentlichen Schreck bekommen haben. In einer Kakophonie von Stimmen (Jim Sinclair, 16.6.2006) sagt man jetzt daß man doch nicht so "ultrahart" gegen die Inflation mit Zinserhöhungen vorgehen wolle. Außerdem wurde letzte Woche wieder massiv Geld in das System injiziert (das "Helicopter-Geld"? - nur für die Insider). Offenbar waren einige Hedge-Fonds und andere "Financial Players" in Nöten. Die Hedge-Fond Katastrophe LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) von 1998, die fast das Welt-Finanzsystem zum Absturz gebracht hätte, läßt grüßen. Nur heute ist das Zerstörungspotential noch mindestens 100 mal größer als damals.

In Wirklichkeit will man am 29. Juni die Zinsen nicht erhöhen, sondern möchte sie sogar senken, da gerade der amerikanische Immobilienmarkt zusammnenbricht. In Florida etwa ist es bereits so schlimm wie Anfang der 1930er Jahre, die Verkäufe sind fast zum Stillstand gekommen. Dort stehen unzählige Wohntürme, die nachts dunkel, d.h. unbewohnt sind. Diese ganzen Häuser und Wohnungen wurden mit extrem riskanten Krediten finanziert. Die Immobilien-Spekulanten stoßen inzwischen alles ab. Das Problem ist, daß diese Immobilien-Hypotheken wie die Autokredite und Kreditkartenschulden in Anleihen verwandelt (securitized) und weltweit verkauft wurden. Das Volumen ist gigantisch. Ich erwarte für die nächsten Monate den Abverkauf dieser Anleihen, besonders wenn die Ausfälle wegen steigender Zinsen explodieren.

Wie Doug Casey (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey060506.html) und andere Autoren schreiben, gibt es jetzt keinen Ausweg mehr für Ben Bernanke. Erhöht er die Zinsen weiter, dann brechen alle Bubbles zusammen, erhöht er sie nicht, implodiert der Dollar. Die große Reflation der letzten Jahre nimmt ihr Ende, die "Greater Depression" kommt.

Der große Investment Guru Richard Russel schrieb am 16. Juni 2006 (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell061606.html), daß er die Goldpreis-Korrektur für beendet hält und die Preise jetzt wieder steigen werden. Er kauft gerade wieder Gold.

Auch Don Stott (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/stott061506.html) meint, daß die Korrektur vorbei ist und jetzt die Gold-/Silber-Preise wieder steigen.

Ich persönlich bin da etwas vorsichtiger. Vermutlich wird man versuchen, bis zum Fed-Meeting am 29. Juni alle Rohstoffpreise, damit auch Gold/Silber unten zuhalten, um die US-Zinsen nicht oder nur geringfügig erhöhen zu "müssen". Im Wahljahr 2006 will man doch keinen großen Crash riskieren. Was in den letzten Wochen an den Weltmärkten passiert ist, war nahe dran.

Und was machen die Europäer? Die tun bei der Dollar-Rettung und Goldpreis-Drückung eifrig mit. Mitgefangen, mitgehangen (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2531). Die sitzen im selben Papier-Boot und werden mit untergehen (http://news.silverseek.com/EdgarSteele/1150419994.php). Bald.

Also ich schließe mich der Meinung von Don Stott an, daß wir zu Jahresende einen Goldpreis von über 1.000 $/oz und einen Silberpreis von über 20 $/oz haben werden. Wahrscheinlich noch viel mehr, wenn wirklich etwas "passiert".

Der Goldbedarf steigt trotzdem

Die Zuschriften auf meine Artikel sind eine wichtige Informationsquelle. So schreibt etwa ein Leser aus Hong-Kong, daß dort Silber überhaupt nicht mehr zu bekommen ist, und Gold nur mehr beschränkt. Die Chinesen haben einen untrüglichen Instinkt für den Wert des Geldes und kaufen alles auf. Andere Berichte (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/) aus Asien zeigen, daß dort ein wahrer Goldrausch ausgebrochen sein muß.

Auch die "Big Boys" schlagen zu, sodaß 2006 die physische Goldnachfrage (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/06/05/cnrussia.xml) um das 8-fache gestiegen ist. Die russische Zentralbank kauft direkt bei den Produzenten, der Iran kauft überall zu jedem Preis. Berichte aus der Schweiz zeigen, daß russische Privatpersonen wie wild Gold und Silber kaufen - die haben Krisenerfahrung.

Die Gelegenheit nützen!

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2784_4.pngEs ist zu erwarten, wenn die Preise wieder anziehen, daß dann die spekulativen Fonds wieder massiv einsteigen. Der Goldpreis wird dann sicher über 800 $/oz steigen. Jim Sinclair erwartet, daß die Zentralbank-Interventionen immer schwächer ausfallen werden. Ultimativ werden sie dann ihre Zinsen so wie Ende der 1970er Jahre schnell und massiv erhöhen müssen. Damals konnte damit das Fiat-Money (Papiergeld-) System gerettet werden, diesmal bricht dieses Kartenhaus zusammen - weil es höhere Zinsen nicht verträgt. Gold ist also der Todfeind des Fiat-Money-Systems. Was real gemacht wird, ist das Ende mit Tricks hinauszuzögern. Ein eklantantes Elite-Versagen, denn diese sind nur Papiertiger (http://members.aon.at/eichelburg/filesadmin/pdf/Art_2006-21_PapiertigerIlluminati.pdf).

Also, derzeit ist eine günstige Einstiegsgelegenheit in Gold und Silber. Diese wird wahrscheinlich nicht mehr lange anhalten. Sorgen Sie vor! (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/artikel.php?storyid=2740)

Ich werde öfters gefragt, ob man Gold auf Kredit kaufen soll. Diese brutale Korrektur hat die Antwort gegeben - nein!

Ein Guter Rat von Jim Sinclair (www.jsmineset.com (http://www.jsmineset.com/), 14.6.2006):

1. I have no concern whatsoever concerning the gold bull market.
2. Time heals all, most certainly when the problem is smoke and mirrors aimed at symptoms with no adjustment to causes.
3. Be strong.
4. Have courage.
5. Dig a hole.
6. Go inside.
7. Pull a rock over the top.
8. Look out once a week.
9. After a few peeks you will be happy again

Übersetzung:

1. Ich habe keine Sorgen darüber, daß der Gold-Bull-Market weitergeht
2. Die Zeit heilt alles, besonders wenn das Problem Rauch und Täuschung ist, um nur Symptome zu behandeln, ohne die Ursachen zu heilen
3. Sein Sie stark
4. Haben Sie Mut
5. Graben Sie ein Loch
6. Steigen Sie hinein
7. Ziehen Sie einen Stein darüber
8. Schauen Sie einmal pro Woche hinaus
9. Nach einigen Wochen werden Sie wieder glücklich sein

Zusammenfassung

Diese brutale Korrektur bei Rohstoffen und Edelmetallen war nicht nur die übliche Zentralbank-Intervention. Der weltweite Abverkauf von Papierwerten hat laut Bill Buckler ( www.the-privateer.com (http://www.the-privateer.com/), Gold This Week - 16. Juni 2006) etwas viel schlimmeres gezeigt: Die Angst vor Schulden, die tödlichste Gefahr für das Schuld-Geldsystem, denn dieses kann nur bei fortlaufender Aufschuldung überleben. Es war eine "Mini-Deflation". Sollte dieser Abverkauf weitergehen, ist das gesamte, weltweite Finanzsystem in Gefahr. Dann wird auch Bargeld suspekt, da dahinter nur Schulden stehen und dann die richtige Flucht in Gold und Silber beginnt.

Es ist darauf hinzuweisen, daß hinter Gold und Silber keine Schulden stehen, es sind unabhängige Werte. Beim nächsten Mal könnte daher der Gold und Silberpreis explodieren, denn die Nachfrage nach physischem Metall ist immer noch stark. Diesesmal hat man nur "Papier-Gold und Silber" (Futures) verkauft.

Bill Buckler stellt auch fest, daß 2006 auch nach diesem Abverkauf Silber, Öl und Gold (in dieser Reihenfolge) die höchsten Renditen zeigten, vor fast allen Aktienmärkten. Bei Silber 15%.

© Walter K. Eichelburg
walter@eichelburg.com

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2784

mama mia

19.06.2006, 11:41

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/logo.png

Wöchentlicher Kommentar: Droht ein Verzug für Silber?

Veröffentlich am 18.06.2006 09:16 Uhr von Theodore Butler (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=54)

Vergangene Woche betonte ich in meinem Aufsatz "Neuerlicher Beweis für die Silber-Manipulation" die wachsende und massive Stellung der größten Händler von Shortpositionen (im Vergleich zu den größten Händlern auf der Long-Seite) auf dem COMEX Silbermarkt. Meine gesamte Analyse basierte auf Datenquellen ab dem 30. Mai 2006, die in dem COT-Bericht (Commitment of Traders Report; Bericht, der einen Einblick in die Positionierung der Marktteilnehmer erlaubt) enthalten waren. Meine Absicht war es, zu zeigen, wie diese Beweise einen guten Grund für eine sofortige Untersuchung einer möglichen Manipulation darstellen. Ich habe diese Informationen an den neuen Vorstand der Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC; Regulierungsbehörde für den Rohstoffhandel) und des NYMEX/COMEX mit der Erwartung weitergeleitet, wie es auch viele von ihnen taten, dass sie diese Situation erklären und/oder richtig stellen würden.

Der gerade veröffentlichte COT-Bericht für Positionen ab dem 6. Juni 2006 schockierte und bestürzte mich. Er bestätigte nicht nur meine Überzeugung, dass die größten Händler von Shortpositionen im COMEX weiterhin durch ihre massive Konzentration die Long-Seite dominierten (und ihre Stellung sogar ausbauten), sondern der jüngste COT-Bericht enthält Daten, die so beunruhigend waren, dass sie die Möglichkeit eines drohenden Verzuges im COMEX Silbermarkt bedeuten könnten. Zumindest aber erklären die jüngsten Daten ausreichend die kürzlich stattgefundenen extremen Abstoßungsverkäufe von Silber und sie bestärken meine Behauptungen einer Preismanipulation nach unten.

Was die neuen Daten so alarmierend macht, ist, dass sie möglicherweise anzeigen, dass ein paar oder vielleicht sogar nur einer der größten Händler von Shortpositionen sich vom Rest der Händler der Shortpositionen abgekoppelt haben könnte und sich zu einem schurkischen einzelgängerischen Händler entwickelt haben könnte, der absichtlich die Preise nach unten treibt, um den wirtschaftlichen Verlust zu reduzieren oder um Silber billig auf anderen Märkten kaufen zu können. Währenddem die Händlergemeinschaft als ganzes bei dem Preisverfall von Silber die Shortpositionen aggressiv zurückkaufte und deckte (wie erwartet), vergrößerte der/die größte(n) Händler seine/ihre Shortpositionen während des Preisverfalls. So etwas ist noch nicht vorgekommen.

Für diejenigen, welche sich wundern, dass der Silberpreis so schwach ist, sollte der COT-Bericht eine Antwort liefern. Der größte/die größten Händler haben immer verkauft, wenn der Markt am wenigsten zahlungsfähig war (auf dem elektronischen Access Markt zur Nichtgeschäftszeit und bei der regulären Öffnung und Schließung der Sitzungen), um einen größtmöglichen Preisverfall zu verursachen. Das ist Preiskampf in seiner extremsten Erscheinungsform, mit dem Ziel, die Long-Seite aus ihrer Halteposition zur Liquidation zu bewegen. Leider hatte das den beabsichtigten Effekt, denn die Long-Seite wurde vom Markt gespült. Es ist überflüssig zu erwähnen, dass dies gegen das Handelsgesetz verstößt.

Am wichtigsten dabei ist, dass das Short-verkaufen des größten Händlers bei sehr starkem Preisverfall einen erstklassigen Beweis der Manipulation liefert. Bisher erfolgte das Short-verkaufen der Händler ("Commercial Dealers", wenige Marktteilnehmer, mit massiven Shortpositionen) lediglich bei Preiskämpfen. Als solches würde es unter die Kategorie des Marktbestimmens fallen (ein eigenständiges Problem welches möglicherweise ebenfalls eine Verletzung des Handelsrechtes darstellt). Doch bei dem neuerlichen short-gehen bei massivem Preisverfall lässt sich der Schein des "normalen" Verkaufens nicht wahren. Das Verkaufen des größten Händlers verfolgt eindeutig das Ziel, einen weitern Preisverfall herbeizuführen. Überzeugendere Beweise für eine Manipulation lassen sich schwer finden.

Schauen wir uns einmal die Zahlen an. Der aktuelle COT-Bericht zeigt, dass die Händler ihre gesamten Netto-Short-Positionen um 5300 Verträge verringert haben, hauptsächlich durch eine Vergrößerung ihrer Gesamt-Long-Position. Sogar die Händler, die als die größten 5 bis 8 identifiziert wurden, verringerten ihre Netto-Short-Position um etwa 2000 Verträge. Aber die Händler, die als die 4 oder weniger der größten Händler identifiziert wurden, erhöhten ihre Netto-Short-Position um 1.200 Verträge. Daraus folgt, dass die 4 oder weniger der größten Händler verglichen mit den Long-Händlern, der Gesamtzahl der anderen Händler und den 5 bis 8 großen Händlern eine konzentriertere Position innehaben als dies jemals in der Vergangenheit der Fall war.

Die Veränderungen hinsichtlich der tatsächlichen Anzahl der Verträge an sich in irgendeiner Woche ist dabei nicht so wichtig, wie es das Gesamtverhalten und die Absichten der größten Händler sind, die durch diese Veränderungen möglicherweise aufgezeigt werden. Die Daten der vergangenen Zeit zeigen, dass die Händler als ganzes die Short-Seite verlassen während der/die größte(n) Händler mehr verkaufen. Ich wiederhole, so etwas ist noch nie vorgekommen und sollte für die CFTC ein eindeutiges Signal dafür sein, dass etwas nicht in Ordnung ist.

Nehmen wir den COT-Bericht vom 28. Februar als Ausgangspunkt. Dort zeigten die Verteilungsverhältnisse, dass es für jeden Netto-Short-Vertrag von einem der größten 5 bis 8 Händler 1,96 Netto-Short-Verträge von einem der größten 1 bis 4 Händler gab. Von diesem Zeitpunkt an hat sich das Verhältnis verändert. In dem letzten Bericht sehen wir, dass es für jeden Netto-Short-Vertrag von einem der größten 5 bis 8 Händler jetzt unglaubliche 4,45 Verträge von den 1 bis 4 größten Händlern gibt. Die folgende Grafik veranschaulicht diese steigende Konzentration auf einige wenige Händler auf der Short-Seite:

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/butler-2778.gif

Mit anderem Worten haben die 4 oder weniger der größten Händler ihre konzentrierten Short-Positionen im Vergleich zu den nachfolgenden 4 großen Händlern in diesem Zeitraum mehr als verdoppelt. (Spezieller Dank gebührt Carl Loeb für die Grafik und andere wichtige Beiträge zu diesem Artikel.)

Wie bereits festgestellt, bedeutet die Tatsache allein, dass es eine konzentrierte Position gibt, noch lange nicht, dass eine Preismanipulation im Gange ist. Jedoch ist es auch richtig, dass es ohne eine konzentrierte Position keine Preismanipulation geben kann. Dies ist wahrscheinlich der Grund, warum die CFTC die Konzentrationsverhältnisse der 8 größten Händler veröffentlicht, so dass, sobald eine Konzentration erkennbar ist, diese als Warnsignal für die Regulatoren dienen kann, um so einer illegalen Manipulation vorzubeugen.

Aus der graphischen Darstellung geht hervor, dass der Großteil des Konzentrationsanstieges an Netto-Short-Positionen der/des größten Händlers ab dem 9. Mai stattfindet - genau zu einer Zeit des großen und gnadenlosen Preisverfalls als alle anderen Händler ihre Shortpositionen zugunsten von Longpositionen erheblich reduzierten. Eine konzentrierte Position sowohl auf der Short- als auch auf der Long-Seite kann ein Hinweis auf eine beabsichtigte Manipulation sein. Eine solche Konzentration, welche den Preis in Richtung eben dieser konzentrierten Position dirigiert, kommt einem Beweisstück nahe, das von der CFTC oder der Börse nicht bewusst ignoriert werden kann.

Der letzte COT-Bericht liefert überdeutliche Beweise, dass sich eine noch nie da gewesene Konzentration von Positionen ereignet hat, die noch im Wachsen begriffen ist und demzufolge sollten bei der CFTC die Alarmglocken schrillen.

Die 4 oder weniger der größten Händler besitzen jetzt netto-short das Äquivalent von 187.625.000 Unzen oder 37.525 Termingeschäften, was unglaublichen 86% der gesamten Nettohandels-Shortpositionen entspricht. Dies ist der höchste Prozentsatz in der Geschichte. Mathematisch bedeutet das, dass die 4 oder weniger der größten Händler auch die entsprechenden und umgekehrten 86% der gesamten Netto-Long-Positionen in den nicht-kommerziellen und nicht-berichtpflichtigen Kategorien besitzen. Denken Sie einmal darüber nach. Dies bedeutet, dass die 4 oder weniger der größten Händler das an Netto-Short besitzen, was Tausende von öffentlichen Marktteilnehmern an Netto-Long Positionen besitzen. Im wahrsten Sinne des Wortes, die Short-Positionen von 4 Händlern stehen der ganzen Welt gegenüber. Oder vielleicht präziser ausgedrückt, eine riesengroße Shortposition gegenüber dem Rest der Welt mit 3 anderen Händlern, die weit geringere Short-Positionen in dieser Kategorie besitzen und die sich eher mit denen der Händler in der Gruppe der 5 bis 8 größten Händler vergleichen lassen.

Was hat diese beispiellose und belegbare konzentrierte Short-Position, von der ich behaupte sie sei manipulativ, mit einem drohenden Verzug für Silber zu tun? Hier müssen sie sich auf ihren gesunden Menschenverstand verlassen. Sie müssen sich überlegen, wie diese konzentrierte Short-Position aufgelöst werden wird.

Wie ich kürzlich geschrieben hatte, ist jede Short-Position ein Leerverkaufsgeschäft, das eines Tages durchgeführt oder eingelöst werden muss. Die Durchführung des Geschäftes kann entweder durch Lieferung, in diesem Fall von tatsächlichem Silber, oder durch Wiedererwerb oder Zurückkaufen der Short-Verträge erfolgen. Dies trifft auch auf die 187 Millionen Unzen der 4 oder weniger der größten Händler zu. Falls diese Händler auch wirklich tatsächlich 187 Millionen Unzen Silber besitzen, das sie zu liefern beabsichtigen, dann droht kein Verzug bei Silber. Doch dies heißt trotzdem nicht, dass sie nicht der Manipulation und des unfairen Preiskampfes schuldig sind, weil der Besitz einer großen Menge an Waren es einem entsprechend des Handelsgesetzes nicht erlaubt, den Markt zu dominieren und zu manipulieren.

Wenn zu einer Preismanipulation zusätzlich noch die Tatsache hinzukommt, dass diese Händler kein Silber besitzen, dann verleiht dies dem Schreckgespenst von nicht ordnungsgemäßen Preisbildungen und/oder Verzug eine noch höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die großen Händler drücken die Preise ganz klar nach unten und es ist logisch, dass sie sie nach oben treiben werden, falls und wenn sie ihren Kurs ändern. Zuerst wird der Preis nach unten manipuliert und danach folgt eine regelwidrige Preisfestsetzung nach oben. Aus der Sicht der Regulatoren sieht das ziemlich schlimm aus. Doch es gibt eine noch schlimmere Folge - ein tatsächlicher Verzug bei COMEX Silber Verträgen durch das Zurückweisen dieser Verträge aufgrund von Konkurs.

Nach genauem Studium der Daten bin ich davon überzeugt, dass von den 187 Millionen Unzen, die von den 4 oder weniger Händlern short gehalten werden, in der Größenordnung zwischen 100 und 125 Millionen zu nur einem Händler gehören. Es sieht sehr danach aus, dass dies ein einzelner Händler ist, der jetzt mehr verkauft um Zeit zu gewinnen, obwohl er jetzt schon viel zu tief drin steckt. Die anderen Händler haben das bemerkt und beginnen ihre Short-Positionen zurückzukaufen und auf die Long-Seite zu wechseln. Damit werden die großen Verkäufe vollständig dem großen Short-Händler überlassen. Die jüngere Geschichte ist voll von Beispielen an solcherart Verhalten. Beispielsweise sind in den vergangenen paar Jahren Händler aus der Volksrepublik China sowohl auf dem Öl- als auch auf dem Kupfermarkt aufgetaucht. Warum nicht auf dem Silbermarkt?

Ich wäre bestimmt nicht überrascht, wenn es sich heraustellen würde, dass hinter dem konzentrierten Short-Verkauf bei Silber ein agressiver einzelner Händler der PROC (Volksrepublik China) steckt, doch die Frage des wer ist hier nicht wichtig. Was wichtig für den Markt ist, ist dass aggressive schurkische Händler schließlich in Verzug geraten und dieser Verzug Chaos verursacht.

Ich weiß, dass ich den Beamten des CFTC und des COMEX keine Schuld daran geben kann, dass sie mir kein Gehör schenken wollen. Welche Institution läßt sich schon gern etwas von einem Kritiker sagen, vor allem von einem Außenstehenden. Aber ich weiß, dass ich ihnen damit vielleicht sogar einen Gefallen tue indem ich sie auf ein mögliches sehr ernsthaftes Problem aufmerksam mache. Bei der derzeitigen Konzentration der Short-Positionen, die weit größer als der gesamte Bestand des COMEX Silbermarktes ist (von dem sicherlich nicht alles zu einer Lieferung bereitstünde), stellt das Risiko eines Verzuges im COMEX durch den größten und konzentriertesten Händler eine große Bedrohung dar. Unschuldig Betroffene, Verrechnungsfirmen bis hin zu normalen Mandaten und Händlern und Angestellten aller Art würden unter einem Silber-Verzug zu leiden haben. Ein Verzug ist das schlimmstmögliche Ereignis, das einer Börse oder einem Markt passieren könnte. Ein Verzug würde den Gedankenan einen Börsengang des NYMEX zu einem Witz werden lassen, noch viel lächerlicher als sich Refcos Börsengang herausstellte.

Das letzte, das ich erleben möchte ist ein Verzug im COMEX Silber. Mit dem Gedanken, ein solch schreckliches Ereignis abzuwenden, werde ich sogar einen konstruktiven Lösungsvorschlag unterbreiten, um einem solchen Ausgang vorzubeugen. Die Verantwortlichen der Börse und Regulierungsbehörde sollten darauf bestehen, dass bei den konzentriertesten Short-Händlern für jeden Vertrag, der nicht belegbar mit sofort lieferbarem Silber gedeckt ist, der volle Vertragswert als Sicherheit einbehalten wird, so dass die Position abgewickelt werden kann, ohne dass das Gemeinwohl beeinträchtigt wird und die normalen Investoren geschädigt werden, zu deren Schutz die CFTC gegründet worden ist.

Nur damit niemand meine Worte falsch interpretiert, dieser mögliche Verzug ist die preistreiberischste Entwicklung, die es für Silber geben könnte und für diejenigen, welche wirklich Silber besitzen. Dieser Verzug bringt einen preistreiberischen Faktor ins Spiel, der jenseits jeder Beschreibung liegt, wenn die konzentrierten Shortpositionen aufgelöst werden. Erlauben sie mir, es dabei zu belassen, da ich nicht von meiner Bostchaft an die Regulatoren ablenken möchte, indem ich über die Vorzüge von Investitionen in Silber spreche.

Ich weiß, dass die Problematik, die ich anspreche ernst ist und dass die Regulatoren reagieren werden wie sie es immer tun. Jedoch mußten wir beim letzten Mal als ich eine Petition mit ihrer Hilfe einreichte, 5 Monate warten und uns durch 9 Seiten von verworrenen und irreführenden Leugnungen kämpfen. Bei der derzeitigen Situation bei Silber handelt es sich um einen Notfall. Da ist ein Verbrechen im Gange. Die mächtige Short-Seite zwingt den Markt stark und mit voller Absicht nach unten indem sie die bereits stark konzentrierte Short-Position weiter ausbaut, was deutlich aus den von der CFTC veröffentlichten Daten hervorgeht. Dies dient keinem vernünftigen wirtschaftlichen Ziel und könnte nur dazu dienen, den schrecklichen Tag der Abrechnung herauszuzögern, welcher, wenn er kommtein sehr häßliches Ereignis für die Börse, ihre Treuhänder und die CFTC werden könnte.

Die Regulatoren der CFTC und des NYMEX/COMEX müssen sofort eingreifen um das manipulative Vorgehen der/des konzentrierten Short-Händlers zu stoppen und sie müssen Maßnahmen ergreifen, um den Markt vor einem Verzug zu bewahren. Oder sie müssen rechtzeitig erklären, warum die von ihnen veröffentlichten Daten auf keine manipulative oder gefährliche Konzentration hinweisen, wie sie seit den Hunt-Brüdern nicht wieder vorkam.

Ich habe diesen Artikel an den neuen Vorstand der CFTC und den NYMEX/COMEX zusammen mit einem Anschreiben geschickt, in dem ich sie bitte, diese Angelegenheit zu untersuchen und zu beantworten. Im allgemeinen besteht eine größere Chance auf eine zeitlich angemessene Antwort, wenn viele Leute dorthinschreiben. Wenn sie die Behörde kontaktieren möchten, so dürfen sie jederzeit gern meinen Artikel benutzen.

© Theodore Butler

Exklusiv übersetzt für GoldSeiten.de. Das Original wurde am 12.06.2006 auf der Website www.investmentrarities.com (http://hhttp//www.investmentrarities.com/06-12-06.htmll) veröffentlicht.

http://www.goldseiten.de/modules/news/print.php?storyid=2778

mama mia

19.06.2006, 11:53

Elliott Wave Gold Update VII

Alf Field
Jun 19, 2006

Last week, if you felt like the person in the cartoon below, you were probably in good company. It was a gut-wrenching downward plunge that challenged the emotions. Relax, there is some good news.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906/cartoon.jpg There is also some bad news. The scenario outlined in Update VI (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field060606.html) was voided when the gold price dropped below $610. The declines have extended to 23.4% in the Comex 2nd month contract ($733.3 to $562.0 = -$171.3) and 21.7% in the London PM fixings ($725.0 to $567.7 = -$157.3). In the cash market in London there was a brief probe into the $540's, producing a decline of around 25% from the peak levels.

These declines mark the largest correction in the bull market to date and are in the 20%-25% range that was expected for major Wave TWO. The logical conclusion is thus that the market peaked in Major Wave ONE at the 12 May 2006 peaks of $733.3 on Comex and $725.0 on the PM fixings and is now busy tracing out Wave TWO. The 20%-25% range was determined by adding 50% to the approximate 16% magnitude of waves II and IV in major Wave ONE. We have not had a correction of the Wave TWO magnitude in the bull market to date, so we have nothing historical to guide us and the decline may be greater than 25%.

The good news is that if the market is indeed in Wave TWO, it establishes where the gold market is in the Elliott Wave cycle and, perhaps more importantly, the bulk of the probable decline has already been seen. In fact, the sizes of the declines to date are already of a magnitude adequate for Wave TWO, so there is a possibility that the lows of the correction are behind us.

As Wave TWO is the largest correction of the bull market to date, it is likely to extend for some further weeks or months and the initial down move may only be the first wave in a more complex sequence of minor waves within Wave TWO.

This assessment raises some issues relating to the minor waves in wave V. These issues will be addressed later. Firstly, let's look at the overall picture of major Wave ONE.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906/1.gif Wave III at $134 is just marginally larger than wave I at $126 in dollar terms although smaller in percentages, just sufficient to avoid Wave III being the smallest impulse wave in the sequence. The analysis of Wave V would now have to be as follows:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906/2.gif In this analysis wave (iii) of V is the smallest of the 3 impulse waves, which is a no-no in Elliott terms and thus casts doubt on this interpretation. This is one of the issues mentioned earlier and is discussed below. The PM gold fixing chart now looks like this:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906/goldchart.gif The prior 4th wave of lesser degree is now the correction in the range from $572 to $535 depicted between the red lines straddling the $550 level, a common pull back point, which has been achieved with the fixing at $567.7 on 14 June 2006 and during intra-day trade in London to around $545 also on 14 June 2006.

I have often been asked how it is possible for an accurate Elliott Wave analysis to be calculated when the gold market is being manipulated. This is probably an appropriate time to have this discussion as the views expressed have a bearing on the issue of the minor waves being of inappropriate sizes.

At the outset let me say that I believe that GATA has done a good job in fingering the points of manipulation in the gold market, although I prefer to use the word distortion. The main areas where interference with normal market patterns has taken place are:

Excessive short selling in futures markets either to extend a decline or prevent a rapid upward price thrust;
Selling of physical gold by Central Banks;
Leasing of physical gold to facilitate hedging or carry trade activities.
It should be noted in points 1 and 3 that for every downward price distortion caused by excessive short selling there should also be a countervailing upward price distortion when the trade is unwound. In the case of excessive selling of futures, these short positions will have to be closed eventually by corresponding subsequent purchases. Hedging and carry trade activities are unwound by buying back what was sold or by delivering newly mined gold back to the Central Bank that supplied the leased gold, thus reducing physical sales to the market.

Selling of gold by Central Banks has had the purpose of limiting the gold price rise. A sharply rising gold price would attract attention to the rapidly declining purchasing power of the irredeemable currencies that all countries now issue. This artificial lid on the gold price will in due course (already happening) attract the attention of countries accumulating large surpluses, mainly of US dollars, resulting in purchases of gold for reserve purposes.

In other words, all these distortions tend to be of relatively short term duration, and are followed by countervailing upward distortions. The underlying primary trend of the market will always flow through to be expressed in the major waves while the distortions will tend to be apparent in the minor waves.

For this reason I have been prepared to ignore areas in the minor wave counts where Elliott rules are breached and rely more heavily on the major waves to determine the wave count. For the record, here are examples of notable distortions apparent in the wave counts.

An example of selling extending a correction: The correction in May 2004 which was expected to terminate after an 8% decline from $425 to $390 was extended to $375, a 12% correction, by excessive selling. (Wave (iv) of wave III).
An example of an explosive upside move being halted: In December 2004 the gold price was roaring towards $500 but was stopped dead in its tracks by an avalanche of selling at $454. This simply prevented a rapid additional $40 up-move, which would have been followed by an equally rapid $40 decline. (Wave (v) of wave III)
An example of an upward price distortion taking place is the recent stunning run up to $725. One would normally have expected this large $190 rise to be caused by a binge of speculative buying which would have resulted in Comex open interest zooming. This didn't happen. Open interest declined, indicating that short covering was driving the price higher. Similarly in the physical market there were signs of hedgers covering their positions and central banks accumulating gold, e.g. Iran.
The following is a comparison of the original forecast of Wave ONE with the actual outcome.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906/3.gif The original forecast back in August 2003 was made when gold was around $360 and a call for the peak of wave ONE to be $630 was a bold one. By and large the major wave forecasts have stood up reasonably well. There were 2 important distortions, the first being that the peak of wave III was $454 not $500 as anticipated due to the selling referred to in example 2 discussed above.

This resulted in the following corrective wave IV being smaller than the anticipated 16% but the lows for wave IV were very close to the $420 level forecast. Wave IV was a triangle that lasted nearly 9 months. The figure of $411 was the lowest price in the triangle while $418 was the bottom of the final wave at the apex of the triangle. The second important distortion was on the upside during the recently completed Wave V. This is the upward distortion mentioned in example 3 above.

This is an explanation of why it is possible to ignore some of the inconsistencies in the minor wave counts. Enough good undistorted data does get through to enable worthwhile forecasts to be made. As the bull market progresses and there is a much greater participation in the gold market, one would expect the impact of these distortions to become much smaller.

It should be remembered that gold is unique amongst commodities in that it is produced for accumulation not consumption. This has important consequences. In the case of a metal like copper, when demand exceeds supply and stocks are drawn down to near zero levels, the price will rise in order to ration the available supplies. A trader caught short in such circumstances has no choice but to bid up the price savagely in order to cover the short position. In the case of gold, most of the gold ever produced is still available in some form or another. Higher prices thus flush out profit takers allowing traders with gold short positions to cover more easily than in the copper example. It also means that corrections in the gold market can be quite large following very large gains.

Now that we appear to have reached the peak of major wave ONE at $725 we can make some guesses as to the peak of the big major Wave THREE which will follow once the current Wave TWO correction is completed. We now know that the $725 level is 2.83 times the $256 start of the bull market. We can project that the peak of Wave THREE will be at least 2.83 times the low point of this correction. As Wave THREE could be the strongest of the bull market, it is possible that the multiple could be higher, possibly 1.618 x 2.83 = 4.58.

If the low of wave TWO turns out to be, say, $545, the recent intra-day low, the following would be the targets for the peak of wave THREE:
$545 x 2.83 = $1,542.00
$545 x 4.58 = $2,496.00
The 2 largest corrections during Wave THREE should be of similar magnitude to the 16% corrections experienced in Wave ONE.

Before we get carried away with the potential of Wave THREE we need to be sure that the major correction currently underway as Wave TWO is over. While the decline to date is adequate for the magnitude expected for this major wave, it is possible that the first down-leg is only the a-wave of an a-b-c (or possibly more complex) sequence. It is quite possible that the correction may absorb several more weeks or even several months.

On a personal note, I will be travelling in China, Europe and Africa during the next 6 weeks and it is unlikely that I will be able to produce any reports during this period.

SUMMARY

The decline below $610 voided the scenario set out in Update VI.
The recent plunge has been the largest of the bull market to date, reaching into the 20%-25% zone that was expected for Wave TWO.
The probability is that $725 marked the peak of major Wave ONE.
The consequence of this is that there are inconsistencies in the minor waves forming part of wave V of Wave ONE.
It is possible that these inconsistencies and distortions have been caused by deliberate manipulation of the gold price.
These distortions relate to several spheres but downside distortions are eventually followed by distortions to the upside. Consequently it is possible to accept that short term minor waves my not accord with classic Elliott Wave patterns.
If the low of Wave TWO is in the region of $545, possible targets for the peak of the strong Wave THREE to follow could be of the order of $1,542 or possibly even as high as $2,496.00.
Wave TWO may have covered an adequate number of dollars to the downside, but the initial down wave may only be the a-wave of an a-b-c or more complex wave sequence. If so, Wave TWO will absorb several more weeks or months and may exceed the 20%-25% size expected for the current correction.
19 June 2006
Alf Field

Comments may be directed to the author at: ajfield@attglobal.net

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906.html

mama mia

19.06.2006, 14:43

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/images/titles/search.gif

TRADING THE "FAT PITCH" IN PRECIOUS METALS
Gold & Silver Flash a "Fat Pitch" Buy Signal!
by Stephen R. Stewart
Editor, FATpitches.com
June 16, 2006

It is always desirable to own the best instruments the markets have to offer, but it can be hard to pick a spot to buy. Gold and Silver have been in huge bull markets the last 2 years. Recently, we had a big spike in prices followed by a fast hard correction. (Chart 1)

Gold and Silver are now flashing a “Fat Pitch” buy for those who like to “Buy The Dip”.

Let's review!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/images/0616.h1.jpg

This chart shows the run in gold and then the big spike. Finally it has a sharp correction and pulls back to the 200 day moving avg (the 200 day m/avg usually is a good place to buy on the dip.)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/images/0616.h2.jpg

This chart shows the run in silver and then the big spike. Finally it has a sharp correction and pulls back to the 200 day moving avg (the 200 day m/avg usually is a good place to buy on the dip.)

Q: What is a “Fat Pitch” profile and how can I profit from it?

A: The "Fat Pitch" is a stock that has had a sharp sell-off in price and is now at point where we can successfully pick a trading bottom. It is usually a fast moving successful momentum stock that has had an extended run and has had a "hard" bout of profit taking occur. Sometimes the instrument trades back to new highs (which is the best "Fat Pitch") and sometimes it only bounces a few % points.

Whatever the success in % return is, the lure of a "Fat Pitch" is its 99% accuracy at picking a tradable bottom. Yes, we will say it again - a 99% accuracy rate - and when we are wrong, your loss is very small (assuming you use are recommended stop loss).

Let's explain in detail the Set-Up:

Using a daily chart, what is absolutely necessary is to have a combination of the following:

- A RSI 30 Low with
- A Full Sto Low 20 with a crossover.

What will give us a higher degree of consistency and accuracy in the trade working is having the other technical indicators doing the following (these are not necessary but much preferred):

- ULT below or near Low 30
- Slow Sto Low 20 Below
- Stock needs to be above its 200 day Moving Avg
- We would prefer the stock has pulled back recently from its 2 year or all time high

Q: What are the expectations of a “Fat Pitch”?

A: We would like the “Fat Pitch” to immediately trade to the upside, however, when picking bottoms a stock may sometimes flounder around for a few weeks before the change in price direction occurs. We have seen it take as much as 8 weeks before the upside move comes, but one thing we can say with certainty, there will eventually be an upward change in price direction with almost very little if any more downside in price.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/images/0616.h3.gif

What we see is all of our indicators hitting their lows all at the same time. This a great place to go long because the risk to reward ratio for a successful profit is at its maximum.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/images/0616.h4.gif

What we see is all of our indicators hitting their lows all at the same time. This a great place to go long because the risk to reward ratio for a successful profit is at its maximum.

http://www.financialsense.com/images/icons/storyend.gif
© 2006 Stephen R. Stewart

CONTACT INFORMATION
Stephen R. Stewart
FATpitches.com
(A division of Insight Equity Research Group)Canada
Email (c_verm2000@yahoo.ca) | Website (http://www.fatpitches.com/)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0616.html

mama mia

19.06.2006, 18:02

Gold and Silver Market Updates

Clive Maund
Jun 19, 2006

Gold

Gold is in a classic buying area, it's recent sharp decline having halted exactly at its 200-day moving average and in a zone of strong support. We had expected it to drop to this zone, but to take probably a month or two to do so, instead it has arrived here in the space of a couple of weeks. Many investors have understandably been rattled by the speed of this descent, especially those who read a recent article saying that gold had a parabolic rise, has topped out and will now have an equal parabolic descent. Those who read this article and perhaps believed it will no doubt be relieved to learn that the same author posted an article last October calling a top in gold $250 below the recent peak. Gold did have a parabolic ascent, but not a large one as we will see lower down the page when we examine a very long-term chart, and it has now corrected the excess resulting from that rapid advance.

There is a scenario that we would be wise not to ignore that could result in gold continuing to retreat, but it is a rather extreme one that would involve a steep rise in interest rates and probably a rise in the dollar at the same time. For this reason it is considered sensible to have fairly close stops below existing positions or new purchases now or in the near future - a logical place would be beneath last weeks low. Remember, even if you get stopped out and the picture subsequently improves, you can always climb aboard again, and won't have missed much.

What is believed to have happened last week is that, after a steep decline, we witnessed a classic example of "capitulation" where weak hands lose their nerve and throw in the towel.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund061906/1.gif On our 1-year chart we can see how the final capitulative selloff does not look so alarming with the benefit of a couple of days of stabilisation and recovery behind us. Just looking at this chart gold appears to be at the absolute classic "buy spot", something you normally have to wait months for. On the face of it it has it all - it has reacted back to its 200-day moving average, and it is way below its 50-day moving average, deeply oversold and is currently just above a zone of strong support. It should be pointed out, however, that it is not likely to go straight back up from here. The vicious plunge last week took its toll on sentiment and so gold is likely to thrash around for a while forming a base area, probably between about $540 and $590, which may continue for some weeks or even a month or two, which will will allow the 50-day moving average to drop down towards the 200-day. Any retreat towards $550 short-term will be regarded as a major buying opportunity, which will have the advantage that a fairly close stop can be employed to limit downside.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund061906/2.gif Now to examine the so-called parabolic rise in gold, and to put in perspective, and there is no better way to do this than by looking at a very long-term chart for gold going way back to the early 70's. On this chart we can that the recent strong rise in gold looks modest compared to the spike of the late 70's, and when you factor in inflation and therefore take on board the fact that gold would have to attain a price of $2000 an ounce to equal 1979's peak, you quickly realize that any assertion that gold's recent peak was an unsustainable, unexceedable extreme is nonsense. Sure, it MAY have topped out, if the high interest rate and dollar scenario becomes reality, and we have taken account of this, but the recent peak certainly doesn't look that wild on this chart - it only got $220 above its 1983 and 1987 peaks at $500!

Gold stocks are another story, because of the continuing danger of a general stockmarket meltdown, which would be expected to take down pretty much all sectors with it. However, with the strong rally in the broad market last week this danger appears to have been averted for now, so that gold stocks should recover significantly in the near-term. During the recent retreat, some stocks exhibited decidedly bearish volume patterns, notably Goldcorp and the big silvers, we will therefore adopt a more cautious approach with stock themselves while this danger persists.

Silver

There is little need to write much for silver, as most of the arguments pertaining to gold, and described in the Gold Market update, above, apply in equal measure to silver.

Silver broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders top area and its decline culminated in a capitulative panic, identical to that in gold, that has brought it down to a parallel zone of strong support in the vicinity of its 200-day moving average, which is a classic "buy spot". Like gold it is believed to need a period of basing around the current level, that may last for a month or two, before it is ready to go up again. Note that silver may dip a little further short-term, perhaps close to $9, which would be regarded as an excellent buying opportunity.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund061906/3.gif Traders should keep in mind that there is one scenario, as with gold, that could knock silver down further, and that is the situation where interest rates get out of control and rise sharply, probably leading to a strong rise in the dollar. For this reason it is considered wise to place stops, say below $9. You could get whipsawed out doing this, of course, but there is always the option to get back in again if the picture subsequently improves, and you won't have missed too much.

Jun 18, 2006
Clive Maund

Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Clive+Maund)
email: support@clivemaund.com
website: www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund061906.html

mama mia

19.06.2006, 18:19

....komm aus dem :schwitzen gar nicht mehr raus :rolleyes alles kann passieren :eek:o
wer weiss schon, was dieser Bernanke wirklich macht oder machen darf oder ....oder.....:rolleyes:schwitz:o

mama mia

19.06.2006, 20:45

http://www.chartsedge.com/images/g061806.gif ...schön wär's :schwitz:kiss:hihi

mama mia

20.06.2006, 11:02

http://www.faz.net/img/leer.gif Interview

http://www.faz.net/img/leer.gif
„Als ich Rohstoffe kaufte, wurde ich verlacht“

http://www.faz.net/m/%7BEF4C9665-9324-4238-9D56-B0CBF11D746D%7DFile1.jpg (http://www.faz.net/s/Rub58BA8E456DE64F1890E34F4803239F4D/Doc%7EEE5FBF03A092D455AA4537A277BEB2FDE%7EATpl%7EEcommon%7ESdetail_image%7EAimg%7EE1.html?back=/s/Rub58BA8E456DE64F1890E34F4803239F4D/Doc%7EEE5FBF03A092D455AA4537A277BEB2FDE%7EATpl%7EEcommon%7EScontent%C2%A7Phtml)Jim Rogers 19. Juni 2006
Nach einem guten Lauf über mehrere Jahre kam es in den vergangenen Wochen sowohl an den Börsen als auch an den Rohstoffmärkten zu zum Teil deutlichen Korrekturen. Sie mögen manche Anleger nervös machen.
Nicht jedoch die Anlegerlegende Jim Rogers. Der ehemalige Partner von George Soros rechnet im folgenden Interview zumindest längerfristig mit weiter steigenden Rohstoffpreisen.

Herr Rogers, wie wird man zum Partner von Starinvestor George Soros und Idol aller Querdenker?

Ich habe mich 1970 - nach ein paar Jahren an der Wall Street - mit George Soros selbständig gemacht. Es gab damals nicht viele Hedge-Fonds, viele waren in den sechziger Jahren pleite gegangen. Doch wir waren mit dem Quantum Fund erfolgreich.

Was heißt erfolgreich?

Zwischen 1970 und 1980 holte der Fonds 4200 Prozent Rendite heraus. In dieser Zeit hat der amerikanische Aktienindex S&P 500 mickrige 47 Prozent geschafft. Es war eine großartige Zeit.

Warum verabschiedeten Sie sich von Soros?

Ich habe mich 1980 zurückgezogen. Da war ich 37 Jahre alt. Ich wollte ein zweites Leben haben und nicht irgendwann mit 75 vor einem Computer aufwachen und die Leute reden hören: Er war ein großer Investor, aber Abenteuer hat er keine erlebt.

Sie genießen heute den Ruf eines „Indiana Jones der Finanzen“. Wie kam das?

Nach 1980 lehrte ich als Professor an der Columbia-Universität in New York - und reiste viel. Ich fuhr mit dem Motorrad, einer BMW, und später mit dem Geländewagen um die Welt, immer auf der Suche nach neuen Ideen. Es war damals nicht einfach, eine Genehmigung zu bekommen, um China und Rußland zu bereisen. Aber es gelang mir. Ich war mehrere Jahre unterwegs, schrieb zwei Bücher darüber und tat, was ich wollte. Dabei investierte ich stets mein eigenes Geld. Denn das Leben als Abenteurer mußte ja finanziert werden.

Ist es nicht schwierig, Globetrotter zu sein und gleichzeitig die Börsen zu verfolgen?

Ja, aber ich bin kein aktiver Trader. Wenn ich von etwas überzeugt bin, greife ich zu und halte daran fest. So wie 1998, als ich zum Schluß kam, daß die Baisse an den Rohstoffmärkten zu Ende ist. Ich habe investiert und bin dringeblieben. Rohstoffe verkaufen Sie erst nach 15 oder 20 Jahren - so lange läuft die Hausse noch.

Sie haben die Renaissance von Öl, Kupfer und Kaffee kommen sehen, als sich Analysten und Fondsmanager noch für Internet- und Technologieaktien begeisterten. Wurden Sie nicht verspottet?

Ja, sie haben mich ausgelacht, als ich sagte: Kauft China und Rohstoffe! Du bist ein Idiot, wenn du nicht auf Technologie- und Telekomaktien wettest, hieß es damals.

Warum waren Sie so überzeugt davon, daß die Preise für Bodenschätze bald haussierten?

Ich bin viel herumgekommen und habe gesehen, daß niemand in neue Bohrinseln und Ölfelder investiert hat, daß niemand neue Metallvorkommen entdeckt und erschlossen hat. Rohstoffe waren so billig wie seit der Großen Depression in den dreißiger Jahren nicht mehr. Zwei Jahrzehnte lang hatte sich niemand dafür interessiert.

Bis Sie kamen.

Ich habe eins und eins zusammengezählt: Die Unternehmen hatten nicht mehr viele Reserven, das Angebot war knapp. Und ich wußte, daß die Nachfrage enorm schnell wuchs, weil China und das übrige Asien boomten. In China trugen sie damals noch blaue Mao-Jacken und waren doch längst Kapitalisten. Mir war klar: Es muß einen neuen Bullenmarkt für Rohstoffe geben. Und ich wußte, daß sich am Aktienmarkt eine gigantische Spekulationsblase gebildet hatte.

In den vergangenen Jahren schossen die Preise für viele Rohstoffe in die Höhe, so schnell und so hoch, daß sich viele fragen, ob das nicht die nächste Blase ist. Was glauben Sie?

Die Rohstoff-Hausse wird noch lange halten. Es braucht viel Zeit, bis zum Beispiel ein neues Bleiwerk in Betrieb ist. Sie müssen erst einmal Bleivorkommen finden; Sie müssen Kapital sammeln; Sie müssen mit der Regierung, Gewerkschaften, Umweltschützern verhandeln. Um Ihre Mine zum Laufen zu bringen, brauchen Sie Infrastruktur: eine Hütte zum Schmelzen, Straßen und so fort. Das verschlingt jede Menge Zeit. Bis Sie das Werk eröffnen können, vergehen zehn Jahre. In dieser Zeit holen Sie aus Ihren alten Minen immer weniger heraus. Deshalb dauern die Bullenmärkte für Rohstoffe so lange. Mit Öl ist es das gleiche.

Wie lange geht es aufwärts?

Bis jeder sagt: Ich muß unbedingt eine neue Mine oder ein Ölfeld entdecken und ausbeuten. Dann werden wir mit Rohstoffen überschwemmt, und der nächste, lange Bärenmarkt beginnt. Aber davon sind wir noch weit entfernt.

Seit Anfang Mai sehen wir heftige Preiskorrekturen auf vielen Rohstoff- und Aktienmärkten. Ist das nicht das Ende der Hausse?

Ich habe all meine Emerging-Market-Investments verkauft - mit Ausnahme von China. Sie sind alle zu hoch gestiegen. Die Vereinigten Staaten erleben vielleicht bald eine Rezession, das trifft auch andere Märkte, vor allem die Schwellenländer - und die Aktienkurse dort. Es hat gerade ein schlechtes Jahr für Aktien begonnen - und ganz bestimmt auch für Anleihen. In einigen Schwellenländern haben sich Blasen am Aktienmarkt gebildet, in Indien vielleicht, ganz bestimmt in Saudi-Arabien und Kuweit.

Auch einige Rohstoffe sind tief eingebrochen, Kupfer zum Beispiel. Macht Ihnen das keine Angst?

Das sind - in historischer Dimension - milde Korrekturen. Es kann noch viel schlimmer kommen, keine Frage. Dennoch sind Rohstoffe heute das beste Investment.

Auch wenn sich die Weltwirtschaft abkühlt?

Ich erinnere nur an die 70er Jahre: Damals steckten Volkswirtschaften auf der ganzen Welt in großen Schwierigkeiten - Rohstoffe erlebten eine gigantische Hausse. Der Ölpreis verzehnfachte
sich.

Sie stimmen zu, daß Rohstoffkäufer starke Nerven brauchen?

Verstehen Sie mich nicht falsch: In jedem Bullenmarkt gibt es Korrekturen, einige davon sind schwer und dauern lang. Gold haussierte in den 70er Jahren gewaltig. Aber zwischen 1974 und 1976 hat sich der Goldpreis halbiert - in nur zwei Jahren. Das hat viele Anleger verunsichert. Sie verkauften. Doch dann schoß der Preis um 850 Prozent in die Höhe.

Viele Anleger verstehen nicht so recht, wie sie in Rohstoffe investieren sollen. Sollten sie Öl- und Bergwerksaktien kaufen?

Nur weil der Ölpreis steigt, steigen die Ölaktien noch lange nicht. Wer Aktien kauft, muß den Aktienmarkt im Blick haben, sich Gedanken über das Management, die Gewerkschaften, die Bilanzen, die Pensionspläne machen. Das ist viel Arbeit. Eine Studie der Yale-Universität zeigt, daß man in den vergangenen 45 Jahren mit den Rohstoffen selbst 300 Prozent mehr verdienen konnte als mit Rohstoffaktien.

Rohstoff ist nicht gleich Rohstoff. Während die Preise für Metalle und Energie in die Höhe schossen, tat sich bei den Agrarprodukten wenig. Warum?

Warum sollten die Preise für Zucker und Zink zur gleichen Zeit gleich stark steigen? Ich empfehle, jetzt auf Agrarprodukte zu setzen. Baumwolle, Kaffee, Orangensaft oder Sojabohnen haben bessere Chancen als beispielsweise Zink.

Was haben Sie auf Ihren Reisen durch die Welt außer guten Investmentideen noch gefunden?

Ich habe mein drittes Leben begonnen und wurde zum ersten Mal Vater. Früher hielt ich Kinder für Zeitverschwendung. Jetzt bin ich begeistert von ihnen. Sie zeigen dir viele neue Dinge.

Welchen Rat geben Sie uns mit auf den Weg?

Bringen Sie Ihren Kindern Chinesisch bei! Lernen Sie alles über Rohstoffe! Wer künftig ein Vermögen machen will, braucht weder Aktien noch Anleihen, sondern Rohstoffe. Und gehen Sie raus, sehen Sie sich die Welt an!

Das Gespräch führte Catherine Hoffmann.
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub58BA8E456DE64F1890E34F4803239F4D/Doc~EE5FBF03A092D455AA4537A277BEB2FDE~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

mama mia

20.06.2006, 11:03

Technische Basismetalltrends 2

Veröffentlich am 20.06.2006 09:21 Uhr von Adam Hamilton (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=116)

Einige der faszinierendsten und beeindruckendsten Marktbewegungen in diesem Jahr konnte man in den Basismetallen beobachten. Sie schossen in mächtigen, parabolischen Anstiegen nach oben und zeigten eine extreme Volatilität, die sogar jene der Aktienmärkte übertraf. Nun befinden sie sich zum Großteil in gesunden Bullenmarkt-Korrekturen, die notwendig sind, um ihre vorangehenden spekulativen Ausbrüche auszugleichen.

Diese atemberaubende Volatilität der Basismetalle ist noch bemerkenswerter, wenn man beachtet, wie jung deren Bullenmärkte eigentlich sind. Vor einigen Jahren handelten die Basismetalle, zu denen in den Märkten alle unedlen Metalle zählen, lustlos in der Nähe von säkularen Tiefs. Nicht einmal die konträren Anleger, die zu dieser Zeit eifrig Edelmetalle handelten, beachteten die Basismetalle.

Nun sind Basismetalle zwar nicht so attraktiv und anziehend, aber die Gesetze von Angebot und Nachfrage funktionieren in diesem Bereich genauso gut. Die weltweite Nachfrage stieg durch die Industrialisierung Asiens rasch an, aber es wurden keine neuen Minen gebaut, da die Kurse zu niedrig waren, um Basismetalle profitabel auf den Markt zu bringen. Die resultierende weltweite Knappheit im Angebot trieb Basismetalle auf Niveaus, die noch vor ein paar Jahren unvorstellbar gewesen wären.

Die letzten paar Monate, seit ich meine erste Abhandlung dieser Serie schrieb, waren einige der aufregendsten in der Geschichte der Basismetalle und deshalb möchte ich diese Woche meine Charts und Analysen auf den letzten Stand bringen. Bevor ich damit beginne möchte ich aber eine interessante Anekdote anbringen, die ich Anfang dieser Woche erlebt habe, um diese Analyse in den richtigen Kontext zu setzen.

In den letzten Newsletters für unsere Abonnenten diskutierte ich die anhaltenden Korrekturen bei Metallen sehr ausführlich. Korrekturen sind unvermeidlich und jeder Bullenmarkt der Geschichte hat Auf- und Abwärtsbewegungen gezeigt. Auf zwei Schritte nach vorn in glänzenden Aufschwüngen folgte ein Schritt zurück in notwendigen Korrekturen um die Marktstimmung wieder auszugleichen. Diese Schritte zurück sind immens wertvoll, da sie die besten Kaufgelegenheiten in einem Bullenmarkt darstellen.

Vor ein paar Tagen diskutierte ich in unserem Zeal Spekulator Warnservice potentielle Kursziele für die anhaltende Korrektur von Kupfer. Nach der Veröffentlichung dieser Warnung schrieb mir ein Mann, der mit meinen Gedanken über das kurzfristige Schicksal von Kupfer nicht sehr glücklich war. Nachdem er mir sagte, ich würde irgendetwas rauchen, wies er darauf hin, dass das Angebot für Kupfer schließlich knapp wäre, dass China seine Infrastruktur ohne Kupfer nicht aufbauen könnte, dass für die große Menge der weltweit hergestellten Hybrid-Autos große Mengen von Kupfer benötigt würden, und so weiter.

Seine grundsätzlichen Argumente für einen weiteren Anstieg von Kupfer waren absolut korrekt und grundsätzlich sehen alle Basismetalle hervorragend aus. Ihr Angebot wurde jahrzehntelang vernachlässigt und nun führt der Aufschwung Asiens zu noch nie da gewesener, zusätzlicher Nachfrage. Es wird wahrscheinlich noch mindestens ein weiteres Jahrzehnt dauern, bis genug Basismetall-Minen in Betrieb genommen sind, um dieses strukturelle Defizit auszugleichen, und die Kurse sollten bis dahin also entsprechend steigen. Langfristige, grundsätzliche Argumente bedeuten aber angesichts kurzfristiger, technischer Trends gar nichts.

Weder die Basismetalle, noch irgendein anderer Markt werden für immer in einer geraden Linie ansteigen. Wie die technischen Trends der Basismetalle klar veranschaulichen, wurden sie in den letzten paar Monaten radikal überkauft. Wenn Spekulanten zu euphorisch werden und die Kurse auf extreme Werte treiben, werden Korrekturen notwendig. Diese gleichen die überhitzten Märkte wieder aus und gewährleisten dadurch, dass die letztendliche Entwicklung ihren Lauf nehmen kann.

Korrekturen sind keine Gefahren für Investoren und Spekulanten, sondern Gelegenheiten, um Gewinne zu realisieren und bei den resultierenden Zwischentiefs neue Positionen einzugehen. Wenn Sie also diese technischen Trends für Basismetalle studieren, sollten Sie die entscheidende Einstellung eines Spekulanten annehmen, der Korrekturen nicht als Gefahr sondern als Geschenk betrachtet, da man die entstehenden Zwischentiefs für günstige Käufe nutzen kann. Seien Sie sich auch bewusst, dass kurzfristige, technische Rückschläge die langfristigen Grundsätze niemals beeinträchtigen.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/hamilton-2790_1.gif

Kupfer ist der unbestrittene König der Basismetalle. Im stark verkabelten Informationszeitalter ist dieser effiziente Leiter in allen Anwendungen von der Herstellung eines Autos bis hin zur Elektronik zu finden. Es ist einer der grundlegendsten Rohstoffe für die moderne Zivilisation. In den Märkten setzt Kupfer üblicherweise den Trend für die restlichen Basismetalle und ist so gesehen die beste Möglichkeit, mit der Untersuchung der aktuellen technischen Trends der Basismetalle zu beginnen.

Kupfer erlebte in den letzten paar Jahren einen absolut faszinierenden Lauf in seinem Bullenmarkt. Diese Woche vor drei Jahren handelte Kupfer unter $0,77 pro Pfund. Am Ende seines letzten parabolischen Anstiegs von Ende Mai schloss es aber bei etwa $4,08! Dieser atemberaubende Anstieg um 430% zeigt die unglaubliche Performance der Basismetalle. Der Großteil dieser gewaltigen Kursanstiege fand jedoch erst in der Zeit seit Februar statt, was aus einer größeren Perspektive ganz einfach viel zu schnell ist.

Im Jahr 2003 befand sich Kupfer in einem schönen, soliden Aufwärtstrend. Es brach dann Ende 2003 bis Anfang 2004 mit einem beeindruckenden Aufschwung innerhalb von nur 67 Handelstagen um 58% aus. Dieses säkulare Erwachen brachte auch ein neuerliches Interesse vieler Spekulanten mit sich. China begann die Kupferkurse weltweit nach oben zu treiben und Spekulanten sprangen auf um an dieser Rallye teilzunehmen. Nach diesem ersten größeren Aufschwung korrigierte Kupfer innerhalb der nächsten 54 Tage mäßig um 18%, bevor es seinen nächsten großen Aufwärtstrend begann, der bis Ende letzten Jahres anhielt.

Damals als er begann, wirkte der Aufschwung von 2003/2004 vertikal und total unbeständig. Kupfer korrigierte aber nach diesem kräftigen Anstieg nicht wirklich stark. Nach einer ersten, mäßigen Korrektur begann es eine Konsolidierung und bewegte sich seitwärts oder leicht nach oben. Dieses Verhalten zeigte, dass die reinen Grundsätze von weltweitem Angebot und Nachfrage in diesem Aufschwung eine viel stärkere Kraft waren als spekulative Leidenschaft.

Nun ein Schnellvorlauf zum letzten Sommer. Im Mai 2005 handelte Kupfer knapp über $1,42 und war damit schon wieder zurück über den Hochs von Anfang 2004. Während des darauf folgenden Jahres sollte Kupfer schließlich innerhalb von 257 Handelstagen um 187% weiter steigen. Dies geschah in zwei verschiedenen Phasen, einem ersten Aufschwung von 64% bis Anfang Februar und dem zweiten, parabolischen Anstieg um 91% von Ende Februar. Letzterer ist der Grund, warum bei Kupfer fast sicher eine Korrektur bevorsteht.

Der erste Anstieg um 64% innerhalb von 183 Handelstagen war absolut normal. Es war sicher ein starker Anstieg, aber er war gerechtfertigt, da die weltweite Nachfrage noch immer schneller wuchs als das Angebot. Wenn Kupfer Anfang Februar ein Zwischenhoch bei $2,34 erreicht hätte, so wie es wahrscheinlich hätte sein sollen, hätte ich eine mäßige Korrektur erwartet, die zu einer langen Konsolidierung seitwärts geführt hätte, ähnlich wie 2004. Aber dann passierte etwas Unglaubliches.

Spekulanten, vor allem Hedge-Fonds, begannen enorme Mengen von Kapital in Rohstofffutures zu investieren. Zu dieser Zeit waren Öl, Gold und Silber sehr stark, was das Interesse an Rohstoffen auch außerhalb der üblichen Anlegerkreise erhöhte. Viel neues Kapital floss in Hedge-Fonds, die dieses wiederum prompt in Futures investierten und damit die Kurse der Basismetalle parabolisch ansteigen ließen. Kupfer selbst schoss in nur 60 Handelstagen um 91% nach oben, also fast auf den doppelten Wert!

Dieser bezeichnende parabolische Anstieg sticht in diesem Chart sicherlich heraus. Es war, als hätte Kupfer bis Februar ganz normal ausgesehen, und dann änderte sich der Charakter seines Bullenmarktes total. Das Problem mit solchen Parabeln ist, dass sie nie nachhaltig bestehen. Wenn ein Kurs auf dem Chart vertikal ausbricht und sich innerhalb eines kurzen Zeitraums fast verdoppelt, steigt die notwendige Menge an Kapital, um weiterhin Kursanstiege zu generieren, exponentiell an. Wenn nicht weiterhin genug gekauft wird, um die Verkäufe der Spekulanten zu kompensieren, die ihre Gewinne mitnehmen, kann die Parabel nur noch kollabieren.

Zurzeit sieht es aus, als hätte dieser Kollaps von Kupfer bereits begonnen. Der parabolische Einbruch wird in diesem Fall den Bullenmarkt von Kupfer sicher nicht beeinträchtigen, aber zumindest diesen übertriebenen Aufschwung beenden. Durch diesen Prozess der Korrektur wird Kupfer die kürzlich so verbreitete, überhitzte Marktstimmung wieder ausgleichen. Früher oder später wird dieses Metall sein Zwischentief erreichen und damit eine großartige Gelegenheit für den Kauf neuer Longpositionen bieten, darunter auch die Aktien von herausragenden weltweiten Kupferproduzenten.

Egal wie deutlich die Fundamentaldaten von Kupfer aussehen, ein vertikaler Anstieg um 91% in nur drei Monaten ist einfach nicht begründet oder nachhaltig. Industrielle Käufer, die die wirkliche physische Nachfrage bestimmen, können den Kurs nicht schnell genug nach oben treiben, um einen parabolischen Anstieg zu erreichen. Das können nur Spekulanten. Spekulanten aber, da wir ja das wirkliche physische Kupfer weder brauchen noch wollen, können ihre Longpositionen jederzeit abgeben und damit eine symmetrische Korrektur hervorrufen. Da dies bereits begonnen hat, ist bei Kupfer äußerste Vorsicht geboten, bis sich sein Kurs wieder zu stabilisieren beginnt.

Interessanterweise ist der parallele parabolische Anstieg von Zink sogar noch extremer als der von Kupfer! Dieses Metall schoss in nur 58 Handelstagen um 98% nach oben und erreichte letztendlich seinen Höchststand bei undenkbaren Niveaus von mehr als dem doppelten seiner 200-Tages-Linie. Wie bei Kupfer sind aber auch hier solch unglaublich schnelle, fast vertikale Anstiege niemals nachhaltig. Die notwendige Korrektur von Zink, um seine Marktstimmung wieder auszugleichen, hat bereits begonnen.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/hamilton-2790_2.gif

Dieser Chart ist schlichtweg faszinierend! Wenn mir vor einem Jahr irgendjemand erzählt hätte, dass Zink, verglichen mit führenden Rohstoffen ein relativ unbedeutendes Basismetall, innerhalb nur eines Jahres um 228% steigt, hätte ich dazu nur gelacht. Jetzt ist es soweit. Eine so außergewöhnliche Kursbewegung in so kurzer Zeit, speziell die letzte Verdoppelung seit Februar, bezeichnet eine der deutlichsten lehrbuchmäßigen Parabeln die ich je gesehen habe. Ein derart mächtiger Anstieg wird auf jeden Fall Konsequenzen haben.

Wie hoch ist nun die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Zink im Februar mit $0,91 so furchtbar unterbewertet war, dass es sich über die nächsten paar Monate verdoppeln musste um auf Basis von Angebot und Nachfrage seinen fairen Wert zu erreichen? Ziemlich klein. Industrielle Käufer wissen bereits Monate oder Jahre im Voraus, wie viel Zink sie brauchen werden und kaufen deshalb laufend mit Futures zu fixierten Preisen. Es sind nur die Spekulanten, die aggressiv genug kaufen können und wollen, um eine wirkliche Parabel, also einen enormen Anstieg innerhalb sehr kurzer Zeit, zu bilden.

Die Kurse können sich zu jeder Zeit, auch auf der Spitze einer Parabel, in drei verschiedene Richtungen entwickeln. Sie können steigen, abflachen oder fallen. Um einen Kurs zu erhöhen, müssen neue Kaufanweisungen weiterhin die Verkaufsanweisungen übersteigen. Um also die Parabel von Zink noch weiter zu steigern, müssten einige große Käufer auftreten und nicht nur all die spekulativen Verkaufsanweisungen von Fonds absorbieren, die ihre Gewinne realisieren, sondern auch noch für zusätzliche Nachfrage sorgen. Wie der erste Kurseinbruch um 17% innerhalb von nur 6 Handelstagen zeigte, wird das offensichtlich nicht passieren.

Die zweite Möglichkeit wäre, dass die Parabel abflacht, ein neues Kursniveau ist erreicht und die Kurse bewegen sich seitwärts. Damit das passiert, müssen bei einem derart hohen Zinkkurs genug Kaufanweisungen hereinkommen, um die Verkaufsanweisungen der Spekulanten, die ihre Gewinne mitnehmen, zu kompensieren. Dies passiert aber fast nie. Wenn Sie Zink entweder als Spekulant oder als industrieller Käufer erwerben möchten und denken, dass die Preise sinken werden, warum nicht ein paar Wochen oder Monate warten und versuchen, bei einem besseren Kurs zu kaufen? Niemand will noch kaufen, sobald eine Parabel einmal zu stagnieren begonnen hat.

Die letzte und wahrscheinlichste Entwicklung nach einer solchen Parabel ist nun eine scharfe Korrektur. An der Spitze scheint der Kurs für alle extrem hoch. Spekulanten verkaufen aggressiv um ihre Gewinne mitzunehmen und es gibt mehr Verkaufs- als Kaufanweisungen, wodurch der Kurs zu fallen beginnt. Diese fallenden Kurse erschrecken andere Spekulanten, die bald auch verkaufen, um nicht ihre gesamten Gewinne wieder zu verlieren. Diese Serie von Verkäufen beginnt, die Marktstimmung zu drücken. Käufer kommen nicht mehr mit großen Volumen in den Markt, bevor sich die Preise nicht stabilisieren, nachdem der Einbruch die meisten potentiellen Verkäufer zum verkaufen bringt oder unsichere Anleger aus dem Markt wirft.

Egal wie stark die Grundsätze von Zink für einen langfristigen Aufwärtstrend sprechen, es ist nicht immun gegen zwischenzeitliche psychologische Extreme, die die kurzfristigen Marktbewegungen dominieren. Wenn Sie Longpositionen in Zink eingehen oder Anteile an Zinkminen kaufen wollen, ist der beste Zeitpunkt dafür nach einer Korrektur, wenn die Angst groß ist, und nicht während der Euphorie einer parabolischen Spitze. Zink kann Anstiege um fast 100% in nur wenigen Monaten einfach nicht halten, genauso wenig wie Kupfer. Solche Kursanstiege sind zu extrem.

Nickel, das in erster Linie zur Herstellung von Legierungen wie rostfreiem Stahl verwendet wird, nahm ebenfalls an dieser außergewöhnlichen Entwicklung bei den Basismetallen teil. Interessanterweise war aber der kürzliche Aufschwung von Nickel nicht einmal annähernd so extrem sie jene von Kupfer und Zink. Nickel illustriert dank seinem parabolischen Anstieg von 2003 außerdem die potentiellen Folgen einer Parabel inmitten eines starken Bullenmarktes.

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2003 stieg Nickel in nur 187 Handelstagen um 130%. Die Spitze dieser vertikalen Bewegung trieb den Kurs relativ zu seiner 200-Tages-Linie auf extrem hohe Niveaus von über dem 1,75-fachen dieser 200-Tages-Linie. Obwohl das zu dieser Zeit für Spekulanten mit Longpositionen in Nickel toll war, hat die extreme Gier der Spekulanten, die solche Parabeln hervorrufen kann, unvermeidliche Konsequenzen. Daher korrigierte Nickel Anfang 2004 und verzeichnete schließlich einen starken Einbruch von 41% über 92 Handelstage.

Es ist wichtig zu verstehen, dass auch diese starke Korrektur den anhaltenden säkularen Bullenmarkt von Nickel in keiner Weise gefährdet. Nickel korrigierte zurück zu seiner alten Support-Linie, die unter der 200-Tages-Linie lag, da der parabolische Anstieg diese 200-Tages-Linie schneller ansteigen ließ als üblich. Nachdem die Korrektur von 2004 ihren Tiefpunkt erreicht hatte, begann Nickel einen exzellenten neuen Aufwärtstrend und stieg für mehr als ein Jahr lang immer weiter an. Dieses entscheidende Ereignis zeigt, wie eine kurzfristige Parabel und ihre Folgen inmitten eines säkularen Bullenmarktes voll genutzt werden können, ohne die Gefahr eines vorzeitigen Endes des Bullenmarktes.

Meine Vermutung für den weiteren Verlauf der aktuellen Parabeln von Kupfer und Zink ist eine ähnliche Entwicklung wie im früheren Beispiel von Nickel. Sie werden für etwa ein paar Monate korrigieren und zurückfallen, schließlich sogar unter ihre 200-Tages-Linien die ja als Reaktion auf die parabolischen Anstiege extrem rasch gestiegen sind. Diese Rückschläge könnten sogar bis zu den letzten Support-Linien von Kupfer und Zink zurückgehen. Ich werde diese nächsten Zwischentiefs auf jeden Fall beobachten, egal wo sie dann tatsächlich liegen werden, da ich neu in Basismetall-Minen investieren möchte, sobald sie einmal mehr technisch günstige Kaufgelegenheiten bieten.

Der letzte technische Aufwärtstrend von Nickel brachte einen Anstieg um 101% innerhalb von 144 Handelstagen seit Ende letzten Jahres. Das ist sicherlich ein starker Aufschwung, ein quasi parabolischer Anstieg, aber für mich scheint es nicht ganz so extrem zu sein. Es ist ein großer Unterschied, ob ein Kurs sich in drei Monaten verdoppelt oder ob er um 59% ansteigt. Nickel korrigiert nach dieser Euphorie, und das sollte es auch. Seine Korrektur sollte aber letztendlich bedeutend milder ausfallen als jene von Kupfer und Zink, da auch seine vorangehende parabolische Entwicklung weniger extrem war.

Wenn Sie von all diesen technischen Trends, die auf eine weitere Korrektur von Kupfer, Zink und Nickel schließen lassen, weniger erfreut sind, sollten Sie von Blei positiv überrascht sein. Der ebenfalls fast parabolische Anstieg von Blei erreichte seinen Höhepunkt Anfang Februar und korrigierte seit dessen um bisher 30%. Ungleich den anderen Basismetallen ist Blei bereits zurück unter seiner 200-Tages-Linie, also im Bereich starker Kaufempfehlungen wo wahrscheinlich sein nächster Aufschwung beginnen wird.

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Blei ist wirklich interessant und bietet Einblick in die zu erwartenden zukünftigen Entwicklungen von Kupfer und Zink. 2003 und Anfang 2004 stieg Blei in einem starken Aufschwung innerhalb von 215 Handelstagen um 127% an. Obwohl diese Rallye sich ihrem Ende näherte, kam es nie zu einem wirklich vertikalen Anstieg und sieht für mich daher nicht wie eine richtige Parabel aus. Die Folge dieser immensen Stärke war aber trotzdem eine scharfe Korrektur um 29% innerhalb von etwa sieben Wochen. Sofort nach dieser ausgleichenden Korrektur begann Blei aber erneut einen langsamen Aufwärtstrend. Die Parabel von 2003/2004 und ihre Folgen schadeten dem säkularen Bullenmarkt nicht.

Nun wieder ein Schnellvorlauf bis 2005. Blei begann letzten Sommer so wie auch die restlichen Basismetalle stark anzusteigen. Aus irgendeinem Grund erreichte es jedoch seinen Spitzenwert Anfang Februar und nahm am zweiten starken Aufschwung von Ende Februar bis Ende Mai nicht mehr teil, der die restlichen Basismetalle vertikal ansteigen ließ. Ich habe bisher keine wirklich überzeugende Erklärung für dieses Verhalten von Blei gehört. Alles was ich sagen kann ist, dass Blei weitgehend unbeliebt und politisch inkorrekt ist und dass in den letzten Monaten nicht so viel spekulatives Kapital in diesen Markt floss wie in andere Basismetalle.

Die Folge dieser Entwicklung ist, dass Blei schon heute technisch gesehen günstig ist. Es könnte also bereits am Ende seiner Korrektur angekommen sein, es sei denn es kommt zu einem weiteren Rückschlag in Verbindung mit den anderen Basismetallen. Leider ist es schwierig, von einem solchen, technisch günstigen Kurs von Basismetallen zu profitieren. Wenn Sie nicht direkt an der London Metal Exchange Futures handeln, ist es schwierig, Blei oder Optionen auf Blei zu kaufen.

Soweit ich weiß gibt es bisher nur eine einzige börsengehandelte, reine Bleiminen-Gesellschaft. Obwohl wir diese kürzlich in unserem Newsletter empfohlen hatten, wird sie noch nicht an den U.S.-amerikanischen Aktienmärkten gehandelt. Es ist also nicht so einfach, von diesem schwachen Bleikurs zu profitieren, wie es bei den Zwischentiefs der anderen Basismetalle sein wird. Tatsächlich ist es durchaus möglich, dass Blei unter anderem deshalb nicht an diesem zweiten Aufschwung der letzten Monate teilnahm, weil es für amerikanische Spekulanten schwierig ist, Blei direkt oder indirekt zu handeln.

Das letzte der wichtigsten Basismetalle ist Aluminium. Obwohl es die Anstiege von Kupfer und Zink ebenfalls widerspiegelte, waren die Gewinne schließlich nicht einmal annähernd so hoch. Ich würde den zweiten Anstieg von Aluminium um 38% als einen starken Aufschwung, aber nicht annähernd als Parabel bezeichnen. Das lässt auch vermuten, dass die notwendige Korrektur bei Aluminium deutlich milder ausfallen sollte als jene von Kupfer und Zink.

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Angesichts der weniger hohen Gewinne von Aluminium seit letztem Sommer beziehungsweise seit Februar ist es ironisch, dass seine jüngste Korrektur im Moment jene Basismetalle anführt, die am zweiten Aufschwung teilgenommen hatten. Aluminium war bis Mittwoch Abend um 20% zurückgefallen, verglichen mit 17% für Zink, 15% für Kupfer und 11% für Nickel. Diese Anomalie wird jedoch wahrscheinlich nicht halten, da die Metalle mit den extremsten parabolischen Anstiegen letztendlich auch die stärksten Korrekturen erleiden sollten.

Die heutigen technischen Trends der Basismetalle sind sehr interessant und zeigen generell außergewöhnliche Anstiege dieser Metalle, speziell seit Februar, die durch reine Spekulationen angetrieben wurden. Nun erleben wir Korrekturen, die bereits voll in Gang sind. Aber sie zeigen auch, dass parabolische Anstiege bei Basismetallen stattgefunden haben und dass diese den anhaltenden säkularen Bullenmärkten nicht schadeten. Obwohl sie für eine gewisse Zeit korrigieren mussten, um die Marktstimmung wieder auszugleichen, meldeten sich ihre starken Aufwärtstrends danach wieder genauso stark zurück.

Mit diesen technischen Trends der Basismetalle denke ich, dass es heute am besten ist, weitere Korrekturen bei den meisten Basismetallen zu erwarten. Sie wurden in den letzten Monaten viel zu stark überkauft und müssen korrigieren, um die überhitzte Marktstimmung wieder auszugleichen. Letztendlich werden diese Korrekturen aber zu den nächsten Zwischentiefs führen, die vor den nächsten größeren Kursanstiegen der Basismetalle die besten Kaufgelegenheiten bieten werden.

Wir von Zeal beobachten die Basismetalle ständig und warten auf diese Gelegenheit, während wir die vielversprechendsten Basismetall-Minen der Welt untersuchen. Sobald die technischen Trends dieser Metalle nach den laufenden Korrekturen wieder für neue Käufe sprechen, wollen wir erneut im großen Stil in elitäre Basismetall-Aktien investieren. Wenn die Zeit dafür gekommen ist, werden wir in unserem Newsletter für Abonnenten die entsprechenden Kaufempfehlungen geben. Abonnieren Sie noch heute um diese kommenden Kaufgelegenheiten nicht zu versäumen!

Unsere Abonnenten haben nicht nur exklusiven Zugang zu unseren Kaufempfehlungen für die kommenden Zwischentiefs von Basismetallen, sondern auch zu einer großen Auswahl an privaten Charts auf unserer Website. Diese Auswahl beinhaltet hoch auflösende Versionen der Basismetall-Charts, die wöchentlich erneuert werden, damit Sie den Fortschritt dieser laufenden Korrekturen selbst verfolgen können.

Fazit ist, dass die meisten Basismetalle, egal wie stark ihre Grundsätze auf einen Aufwärtstrend hinweisen mögen, im Mai ganz einfach zu stark überkauft wurden. Eine Flut von neuem spekulativem Kapital trieb die Kurse teilweise parabolisch nach oben und führte zu extrem hohen Niveaus, die kurzfristig nicht halten können. Ein Bullenmarkt zeigt Anstiege und Rückschläge, und auch die Basismetalle bilden hier keine Ausnahme. Ihre jüngsten Korrekturen sind bereits in Gang.

Letztendlich aber werden diese Korrekturen zu den besten Kaufgelegenheiten für Basismetalle und Basismetall-Aktien seit letztem Sommer führen. Wie die Geschichte dieser Metalle zeigt, sind auch kurzfristige Parabeln und ihre Folgen keine Gefahr und werden dem langfristigen säkularen Bullenmarkt nicht schaden, der durch weltweit strukturelle Defizite in der Produktion dieser Metalle begründet ist.

© Scott Wright
Copyright by Zeal Research (www.ZealLLC.com (http://www.zealllc.com/))

Dieser Beitrag wurde von Hermann Wagner exklusiv für GoldSeiten.de übersetzt. (Zum Original (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/basetech2.htm) vom 09.06.2006.)

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mama mia

20.06.2006, 11:12

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/usgi_logo.gif (http://www.usfunds.com/)Anticipate Before You Participate

Frank E. Holmes
June 20, 2006

A fundamental aspect of investing is deciding how much risk and volatility you're comfortable with, and then choosing investments that fit into that comfort zone.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062006/1.jpgGenerally speaking, the greater the volatility of a given security, the higher its risk for the investor. And the greater the risk you're willing to take, the greater the potential profits you could reap. So taking the comparison to its logical conclusion, the greater the volatility, the greater the potential profits and, of course, the greater the potential losses.

Investors may find it difficult and time-consuming to figure out which funds provide the optimal balance of risk, volatility and reward, but it's worth the effort. Understanding the volatility and risks involved with the markets is vitally important to maintain both your investments and your emotional health. Chasing performance or trying to guess tops and bottoms in share prices can be both emotionally and financially draining.

Standard deviation, also known as "sigma," is a valuable statistical tool for gauging a fund's volatility, as it measures how much the fund's returns vary from their mean, or average, over a given period of time.

For most funds, returns will be within one standard deviation (one sigma) of their mean (average) 68 percent of the time and within two standard deviations (two sigma) of the mean 95 percent of the time. Returns fall within three sigma 99 percent of the time.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062006/2.jpg You can see this basic concept in the bell-shaped curve to the right. The straight line down from the highest point on the curve is the mean return over the specified time period. The area in blue is one sigma above and below the mean. By adding the area in green, you have gone out two sigma on either side of the mean. The yellow segments expand the white area to three sigma.

As an investor, sigma can help you understand the level of volatility to expect from a particular investment. That knowledge allows you to manage your risk and it keeps you from getting overly excited when your investment's ups and downs fall within its normal range. It can also help you identify when to buy or sell a stock or a fund.

Let's look at the Amex Gold BUGS Index (HUI) as an example of how to use sigma.

Magnitude for 1 standard deviation (1 sigma**) as of 6/14/06 Index Weekly Monthly Quarterly HUI 4.77% 9.96% 17.79% S&P 500 2.05% 4.18% 6.89%

**Sigma is the Greek notation for standard deviation. Normally distributed random data series fall within +1 sigma from the mean around 68% of the time.

Over the last five years as of 6/14/06, the HUI has had a quarterly sigma of 17.79 percent. That means if you marked each quarterly return for the last five years on a graph, you could expect 68 percent of those marks to be within 17.79 percent above or below the average (mean) return. Ninety-five percent of those marks would predictably fall within 35.58 percent above or below the mean return because that's two sigma.

A gain of 10 percent in a quarter might sound exceptional for an investment, but for the HUI, that level of return falls within the range of normal over the past five years. Likewise, a quarterly drop of 10 percent can sound scary, but if you know the sigma for the HUI, you know that too is within its normal movement.

When is an index overbought or oversold?
Quarterly Standard Deviation Movement of the HUI - 2001-2006 as of 6/14/06

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062006/3.gif You should pay closer attention when returns fall outside one sigma during a specific time period, whether that variance is positive or negative. If an index's performance rises more than one sigma, it could signal that it is overbought, so you might consider selling or holding off on buying. That's because, statistically, there is only a 16 percent chance that it will go higher. The mechanics are reversed when a performance drops more than one sigma. In that case, it suggests the index's stocks may be oversold, so you might consider buying or not selling because the chance of further loss is only 16 percent.

Volatility eases over time.

Again, look at the sigma over the weekly, monthly and quarterly time periods for the HUI. You can see that the volatility is not linear. For instance, the HUI has a weekly sigma of 4.77 percent, so one might think that the monthly sigma should be four times higher because there are four weeks in a month. But in reality, the monthly sigma of 9.96 percent is a little more than double the weekly figure. Likewise there are three months in a quarter, but the quarterly sigma was less than double the monthly number.

Investor psychology suggests that investors are more comfortable buying a stock after it has moved up and are more willing to sell when it declines sharply. Many investors use the 200 day and the 50 day moving average to make their decisions, however, this simple process can be problematic when the sectors are more volatile. We believe it is wiser to use dollar-cost averaging and set limits on exposure to any asset class and rebalance annually to catch, not chase volatility.

-Frank Holmes
Chairman/CEO/CIO of U.S. Global Investors Inc.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062006.html

mama mia

20.06.2006, 11:18

...von dohanics in "Daily" gesetzt :verbeug

Silber: Die Musik spielt am Terminmarkt, aber wie lange noch?

Wenn man Berichte über den Silbermarkt hört, dann wird gewöhnlich vom Handel an der COMEX, der New Yorker Warenterminbörse, berichtet. Einer der wichtigsten Indikatoren für den Silbermarkt ist der COT-Bericht, welcher die Positionierungen der unterschiedlichen Akteure am Terminmarkt aufzeigt. Als Hauptargument für einen steigenden Silberpreis wird fast immer auf die drückende Last der Shortpositionen an den Terminmärkten hingewiesen, die auf Grund ihrer schieren Größe niemals tatsächlich eingelöst werden können. Der Terminmarkt scheint also bei Silber eine dominierende, wenn nicht sogar alles bestimmende Rolle einzunehmen. Wieso kann jedoch auf dem Terminmarkt ein Preis gebildet werden, der wie bei Silber, so dermaßen von den Gegebenheiten des physischen Marktes abweicht?

Um diese Frage beantworten zu können müssen wir zuerst eine grundlegende Unterscheidung zwischen diesen zwei verschiedenen Märkten treffen, denn obwohl an beiden Silber gehandelt wird, gehorchen beide gänzlich anderen Gesetzen. Beginnen wir mit dem Markt für physisches Silber, auch Kassa- oder Spotmarkt genannt.

Der Kassamarkt ist genau das, was man sich langläufig unter einem Markt vorstellt. Hier handeln die Marktakteure, meist Banken, untereinander physisches Silber via Handelplattform oder Telefon. Das Silber wird dabei jedoch nicht zwingend jedes Mal physisch übergeben, sondern einfach von einem Konto eines Marktteilnehmers auf das eines anderen übertragen („White Lining“). Das gehandelte Silber muss dazu jedoch physisch vorhanden sein. Keiner der Marktteilnehmer kann also einfach etwas verkaufen, das er nicht hat.

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Der Terminmarkt ist im Gegensatz zum Kassamarkt eigentlich ein Markt für Rechte und Pflichten. Es werden Kontrakte (=Verträge) über zukünftig zu erfüllende Geschäfte gehandelt. Die Lieferung erfolgt in der Zukunft, der Preis für den Basiswert auf den sich ein Kontrakt im Terminmarkt bezieht, wird jedoch bereits im Zeitpunkt des Vertragsabschlusses festgelegt.

Termingeschäfte sind grundsätzlich, anders als viele Kritiker immer behaupten, an und für sich keine reinen Papiertiger. Ihre Funktion ist ähnlich der einer Versicherung, weil wirtschaftliche Unsicherheiten unvermeidbar sind und weil Menschen auch bei gleichem öffentlich zugänglichem Wissen unterschiedliche Erwartungen bilden.

Grundsätzlich kann man zwei Arten von Akteuren am Terminmarkt unterscheiden: Die Hedger und die Spekulanten. Der Hedger versucht Risiken, zB steigende Ölpreise bei Fluggesellschaften, am Markt abzusichern. Da viele Unternehmensrisiken gleichzeitig einen Vorteil für andere Marktakteure bieten, zB hoher Ölpreis für Ölförderunternehmen, können sich die Hedger die Risiken gegenseitig abnehmen und damit ist beiden geholfen.

Da es aber nun nicht immer automatisch einen Counterpart für jeden Hedger gibt kommen die Spekulanten ins Spiel. Sie gehen in der Hoffnung auf Ertrag die Gegenposition zu den Hedgern ein, schließlich müssen die erwarteten Risiken nicht eintreffen, sonst gäbe es schon lange keine Versicherungsunternehmen mehr.

So weit so gut. Der Terminmarkt hat also grundsätzlich eine sehr wichtige Aufgabe und ist in der heutigen Wirtschaft unverzichtbar. Es können aber auch sehr große Risiken vom Terminmarkt ausgehen, denn für den Verkauf von Silber auf Termin muss man nicht wirklich Silber besitzen sondern lediglich einen Teil des zukünftig vereinbarten Kaufpreises als Margin (=Sicherheit) hinterlegen. Da die Margin meist weniger als 5 % beträgt wird den Akteuren ermöglicht mit sehr großem Hebel zu agieren und genau hierin liegen die enormen Risiken des Terminmarktes, im Speziellen beim Terminmarkt für Silber.

Das Open Interest an der COMEX in New York beträgt per 16. Juni 2006 562.555.000 Unzen Silber, was zu einen aktuellen Silberpreis von USD 9,95 immerhin einem Gegenwert von knapp 5,6 Milliarden US-Dollar entspricht. Diese Zahl mag auf den ersten Blick viel aussehen, ist aber in Bezug auf die internationalen Finanzmärkte geradezu mickrig. Bei einer angenommenen durchschnittlichen Margin von 5 % benötigen die Shortseller nur USD 280 Millionen um diese Positionen zu halten!

Wenn man nun die verhängnisvollen Segnungen des Hebeleffektes mit den Kenntnissen eines gewieften Fondsmanagers oder Händlers kombiniert, so ergibt sich daraus ein höllischer Cocktail. Der volle Gegenwert der Kontrakte ist nämlich nur bei einer tatsächlichen Lieferung zu leisten, was aber nur in den allergeringsten Fällen vorkommt. Verfügt nun jemand beispielsweise über ein Spekulationskapital von einer Milliarde, was zahlreiche Hedge Fonds spielend leicht, über Eigenmittel oder Kredit, jederzeit aufbringen können, dann kann er den Silbermarkt nach belieben auf Berg- und Talfahrt schicken. Es genügt auf Grund der Segnungen der modernen Charttechnik und der Trendfolger sogar meist aus den Kurs nur durch eine Trendlinien oder einen gleitenden Durchschnitt zu jagen und schon verselbständig sich das Ganze, dies gilt natürlich sowohl nach oben als auch nach unten!

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Warum der Futuresmarkt also sehr leicht beeinflussbar ist wissen wir nun, aber wieso hat dies so große Auswirkungen auf den physischen Silbermarkt? Ist der Terminmarkt nicht eigentlich nur eine Ableitung des Spotmarktes? Wackelt hier nicht der Schwanz mit dem Hund?

Um den Zusammenhang zwischen dem Kassa- und dem Terminmarkt zu verstehen muss man sich zuerst über die Bewertung von Terminmarktpositionen, im einfachsten Fall von Futures, klar werden. Der Terminkurs besteht prinzipiell immer aus dem aktuellen Kassakurs zzgl. der Kosten für Lieferung, Lagerung und Versicherung sowie entgangenem Zins, es wird also ein Aufschlag auf den Kassakurs, der so genannte Contango, bezahlt. Je nach Angebots- und Nachfragesituation kann es noch zu einem Abschlag des Terminkurses auf den Kassakurs (= Backwardation) kommen. Soweit zur Theorie.

Einerseits gibt es eine ganze Menge professioneller Akteure, die Arbitrageure, die versuchen Abweichungen der Preise an diesen beiden Märkten in Abhängigkeit vom jeweilig anderen Markt gewinnbringend auszunützen. Wie das in der Praxis aussieht ist nicht von Bedeutung, es geht nur darum, dass sich die Preise von Termin- und Kassamarkt aus diesem Grund unter normalen Umständen nicht allzu gegenläufig entwickeln können.

Des Weiteren spielt die höhere Transparenz des Terminmarktes sowie die bessere Verfügbarkeit der Kursdaten eine nicht unwesentliche Rolle. Möchte beispielsweise ein Marktteilnehmer diskret eine große Menge Silber erwerben, so wird er dies eher über den Kassamarkt machen, da diese Transaktion vom breiten Publikum unbemerkt im Interbankenhandel vollzogen werden kann. Ist man jedoch gewillt den Markt durch seine eigene Transaktion in die eine oder andere Richtung zu treiben, dann ist man am Terminmarkt richtig. Hier wird jederzeit für jeden sichtbar ein Kurs gestellt und es gibt ein umfangreiches Berichtswesen über die Konzentrationsverhältnisse der Futurespositionen der verschiedenen Gruppen von Akteuren.

Kommen wir nun also zur praktischen Relevanz dieses Themas. Sehr oft hört und liest man die Frage, ob die Shortseller im Falle einer Silberknappheit nicht einfach ewig weiter leerverkaufen können um somit den Markt in die Knie zu zwingen. Hierzu muss man sagen, dass dies, Finanzkraft der Shortseller vorausgesetzt, prinzipiell möglich ist. Nun aber zum kritischen Punkt an dieser Argumentation.

Ab einem gewissen Punkt sind die Verkäufer am physischen Markt nicht mehr bereit ihre Ware zu jenem Marktpreis zu verkaufen der sich vom Terminmarkt ableitet, beispielsweise wenn die Produktionskosten über den Marktpreis steigen. In diesem Fall gibt es zwei mögliche Szenarien. Entweder verlagert sich das Gewicht vom Termin auf den Kassamarkt, sodass dann der Terminkurs via Arbitrage vom Kassakurs abgeleitet wird oder aber die beiden Preise gehen getrennte Wege. Letzterer Fall wäre vor allem bei einer Shortsqueeze zu beobachten, also im Fall einer massiven Silberknappheit und/oder bei Lieferausfällen.

Wenn nun also die Silbernachfrage am physischen Markt weiter anhält, sei es durch den Silber-ETF (SLV) oder durch das anhaltende Interesse der Privatanleger, dann könnte das Kräfteverhältnis durchaus zu kippen beginnen. Es ist eigentlich nur eine Frage der Zeit bis die Shortpostionen am Terminmarkt es nicht mehr schaffen die prekäre Lage am physischen Markt zu überdecken.

Als Investor können Sie zweifach davon profitieren: Solange der Silberpreis unter seinem „fairen“ (also unter fairen Bedingungen gehandelten) Wert liegt können Sie Silber quasi mit Rabatt erwerben, und wenn das Kräfteverhältnis kippt können Sie die Ernte einfahren.

Fazit:

Das Verständnis der Interdependenz von Termin- und Kassamarkt ist von grundlegender Bedeutung für eine erfolgreiche Investition in Silber. Man muss meiner Meinung nach aufhören immer nur das negative am niedrigen Silberpreis zu sehen, jeder Tag an dem man Silber unter USD 10 bekommt ist ein guter Tag, diese Tage sind jedoch bereits heute schon gezählt!

mama mia

20.06.2006, 11:25

20.06.2006, 09:57 #434 (http://showpost.php3?p=935259&postcount=434) Maria_Callas (http://member.php3?u=3106)
Sales Coach & Co-Autor

http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/image.php3?u=3106&dateline=1129564699

Registrierungsdatum: Oct 2005
Beiträge: 291

Übrigens hatte ich den folgenden Buchauszug vor 1 Woche schonmal gepostet. Leider liest sich so etwas hier kaum einer durch, weil es einem doch all zu sehr den Spiegel vorhält. ;) Quelle: "Gold-Guide" von Bruno Bandulet 1984 (!!!) Und das passt immer noch, wie die Faust aufs Auge. :lach

Der Schlüssel zu unserem Verhalten als Anleger liegt mehr, als wir es selbst ahnen, in unserer psychischen Grundeinstellung - und in dem Bild, das wir uns von der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Zukunft machen.

Da gibt es die eingefleischten Pessimisten, die unverbesserlichen Optimisten und schließlich die Realisten, die manchmal eine Neigung zum Fatalismus haben.

Der Pessimist sagt: Ich habe die Zukunft gesehen, und sie funktioniert nicht. Er will im Grunde auch gar nicht, daß sie funktioniert. Der Pessimist zieht eine innere Befriedigung aus dem Wissen, daß er Zeuge eines großen Untergangsschauspieles ist - des Untergangs des Abendlandes, des Geldwertes, des Kapitalismus, der ganzen Welt, so wie wir sie kennen. Der Genuß an dieser apokalyptischen Perspektive wird noch süßer dadurch, daß der Pessimist zu Recht annimmt, daß die Mehrheit der Zeitgenossen seine Ansichten nicht teilt. Er wäre enttäuscht, wenn alle so dächten wie er.

Solche weltanschauliche Pessimisten finden sich in nicht geringer Anzahl unter den Goldhortern. Sie verstecken zunehmende Mengen an Gold in allen möglichen Safes, unter Matratzen, unter Fußböden, im Mauerwerk ihres Hauses, ja sogar im Erdreich ihres Gartens, wobei sie selten versäumen, in eben diesem Garten in bestimmter Tiefe Nägel an den verschiedensten Stellen einzugraben, damit die Metalldetektoren der Diebe in die Irre geführt werden.

Ein Krieg im Mittleren Osten, ein Konflikt in Mittelamerika, ein Anschlag auf irgendeinen Präsidenten und jedes Knistern in der Struktur der internationalen Schuldenpyramide sind für den Pessimisten gute Nachrichten. Niedrige Inflationsraten, reichliches Öl und Ruhe am Golf rechnet er zur Kategorie der schlechten Nachrichten. Da er seine tiefste Befriedigung aus steigenden Goldpreisen zieht, nimmt er fast alles in Kauf, was diesem Zwecke dient,und freut sich sogar manchmal insgeheim darüber -nicht weil er von Natur aus schadenfroh wäre, sondern weil es seine Meinung bestätigt.

Der zweite Typ, der des unverbesserlichen Optimisten, sagt: Ich habe die Zukunft gesehen, und sie ist wunderbar. Unser Optimist liest in der Zeitung am liebsten Regierungsverlautbarungen, weil sie immer so schön klingen, glaubt den Banken aufs Wort, daß es eigentlich gar keine Schuldenkrise gibt, und folgt allen möglichen Abrüstungsverhandlungen mit nie erlahmender Zuversicht, so lange sie auch dauern mögen. Der Optimist ist der festen Meinung, daß finanzielle und politische Katastrophen heutzutage nicht mehr möglich sind, weil wir alle doch dazugelernt haben. Gold faßt er nicht an, statt dessen kauft er gerne öffentliche Anleihen, weil die Regierungen schließlich deren Rückzahlung versprochen haben.

Und der Realist? Er sagt: Ich habe die Zukunft nicht gesehen, und sie wird funktionieren oder auch nicht. Der Realist weiß, daß es nicht darauf ankommt, zukünftige Entwicklungen vorherzusehen, sondern zu wissen, welche Entwicklungen unter den gegebenen Umständen möglich, denkbar oder wahrscheinlich sind. Er hofft vielleicht auf das Beste, aber schließt auch das Schlimmste nicht aus. Er ist fest entschlossen, sich von nichts überraschen zu lassen. Er ist ein wachsamer Mensch. Er hat Sinn für Geschichte, weil sie ihn lehrt, daß Boom und Bust, Prosperität und Niedergang, aufeinander folgen wie der Tag auf die Nacht - daß es nichts Neues gibt unter der Sonne, auch nicht seit der Erfindung des Computers.

Der Realist hofft eigentlich nicht darauf, daß das internationale Finanzsystem zusammenbricht und Gold auf $ 3000 steigt. Es ist ihm mehr oder weniger gleichgültig, weil er weiß, daß es immer ein Investment geben wird, das zu seiner Zeit das Beste ist.

Der Realist ist stets bereit, seine Meinung zu überprüfen und zu revidieren und sich neuen Situationen anzupassen. Er ist kein gold bug, wie die Amerikaner sagen, kein fanatischer Anhänger des gelben Metalls. Er ist Pragmatiker, und als solcher vertritt er den Standpunkt, daß es unter den gegebenen Umständen riskanter ist, überhaupt kein Gold zu haben als einen Teil seines Vermögens in Gold zu investieren.

Der Realist trifft, mit einem Wort, Vorsorge für alle Eventualitäten -ganz im Sinne von McMahon, des stellvertretenden Gouverneurs der Bank von England, der einmal sagte: »Keine Zeit ist nützlicher verschwendet als diejenige, die für Vorkehrungen gegen Katastrophen aufgewendet wird, die sich dann doch nicht ereignen.«

Gold als Notreserve, als letzte Sicherheit - und dies ist meine eigene, hoffentlich realistische Einstellung-ist durch nichts zu ersetzen. Jemand, der sich systematisch und mit Vorliebe bei Preiseinbrüchen einen Goldvorrat aufbaut, gilt heute nicht mehr als Sonderling wie noch vor 20 Jahren. Gold hat sich in den siebziger Jahren zu einem akzeptierten, sogar modernen Investment gemausert, aber als sehr sophisticated gilt das Goldhorten doch noch nicht. Letzten Endes ist es ja auch eine eher bäuerliche als urbane Angewohnheit.
__________________
"Nur weil du paranoid bist, heißt das nicht, dass sie nicht hinter dir her sind." :schwitz :schwitz

mama mia

20.06.2006, 11:38

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Gold vs. Gold Stocks, GOLD/XAU Ratio

Gold Stocks as a group or an index tend to be more volatile then gold. When gold is going up gold stocks tend to go up faster, when gold is correcting downwards , gold stocks get hit harder. Overall Gold & gold indices are well correlated. This can be easily seen on the first chart below which presents the last 3 year performance of Gold, The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) and the ratio between them. When the Gold / XAU is trending down both Gold & the XAU Index are trending up and visa versa.

The usefulness in charting the GOLD/XAU ratio is dual – the ratio can sometimes give an early sign and confirmation of bottom or top for the Gold market complex. Looking at the second chart below (Seven month $GOLD:$XAU daily candle chart) you can see a relatively clear double top pattern which implies that the gold market have bottomed.

Please note: The GOLD/XAU Indicator have served me in the past but I do expect it to stop working sometimes in the future - Gold and Silver will outperform the stocks at some point. Remember that gold stocks are highly dependent on the price of gold while the opposite is not true.

I choose the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) for the reason it is the most popular - traded gold stocks index. The same conclusions are generally true for other gold indices like the GDM (GDX ETF) – AMEX Gold Miners Index, the HUI – AMEX Gold Bugs Index and the GOX – CBOE Gold Index.

By the way and In case you wanted to know my favorite gold stock is the GLD (http://globalgold.blogspot.com/).

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7214/1988/1600/XAU_GOLD_XAU.png

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7214/1988/1600/g-x-xau.png

http://goldandsilverstocks.blogspot.com/

mama mia

20.06.2006, 17:15

...mal eine kritische Stimme ;)

A Gold Update

Jack Chan
www.traderscorporation.com (http://www.traderscorporation.com/)
Jun 20, 2006

From the emails I've received in the past few days, it appears that I may be one of a very few who is currently short gold and long dollar. That's alright, I'm not big on crowds. I realize our bearish position on gold is not a popular one, although it is a profitable one. I love the gold sector, but I'm not in love with gold.

This is a quick update on our current positions for those who follow our work.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan062006/1.gif GLD - US traders are short from $68.15, added more at $64, and we shall take partial profits on a close above resistance ®. Currently up 17%.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan062006/2.gif FHG163 - Canadian traders are long this gold bear fund from $10.68, take partial profits on a close below support (S). Currently up 40%.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan062006/3.gif RYSBX - we are long from $25.14, take partial profits on a close below S.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan062006/4.gif Our breakout model broke down in May, confirming our sell signal and nothing has changed since then. According to the model, the only viable positions for traders are either short or cash, holding gold stocks without a hedge could be very hazardous.

End of report

Jun 19, 2006
Jack Chan
Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jack+Chan)
email: info@traderscorporation.com
website: www.traderscorporation.com (http://www.traderscorporation.com/)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan062006.html

mama mia

20.06.2006, 22:15

;)

mama mia

21.06.2006, 17:23

Steven Halpern's "The Stock Advisers"

The Aden Forecast: "The Resource" for Natural Resources (nicht das Original)
Tuesday, 20 June 2006
After personally avoiding gold as an asset class since the mid-1980s, a dinner in 2004 with Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Adrian Day, and US Global's CEO Frank Holmes changed my view. Hearing these experts explains the long term fundamentals behind gold, and their personal conviction in their bullish postures, at a time when the metal was in the $300s, convinced me of the need to include gold in any well-diversified, long-term portfolio.

Ever since, I've paid great heed to the advice shared by all these experts, and have been a diligent reader of The Aden Forecast, which I consider a required resource for any serious investors in the natural resources sector. In the wake of a sharp sell-off in gold (which I'd note the sisters had forecast - they review their short and long term stance on gold, as well as some favorite stocks in the sector.

"Gold and the other metals have fallen sharply, but considering they’d risen so far and fast this year, it wasn’t a surprise. It’s basically a normal bump in the road and despite this decline, gold’s still looking good. Its parabolic rise remains in force and it’s strong. Basically, there are six major factors driving this bull market. Briefly these are:

1) too much spending
2) too much money is being produced
3) inflation
4) the weak US dollar
5) international tensions
6) China’s commodiy demand and a new upmove in the 200 year commodity cycle.

“The last big bull market in gold was in the 1970s and it lasted 12 years. In recent years, we’ve seen many similarities to the 1970s, suggesting this rise could also be similar. In the 1970s, for instance, there was big spending on guns and butter as the Vietnam war dragged on. Deficits were large, and inflation, oil and gold were soaring and the dollar was dropping. Today there’s even bigger spending as the war on terror continues. Deficits are huge, and oil and gold have been soaring, inflation is picking up, the dollar is declining and the president is also unpopular.

“But there are also differences in today’s world compared to the 1970s. These differences suggest the current gold rise could be even bigger than the bull market of the 1970s, and they provide even more fuel for gold’s bull market. Most important, there are nearly 50% more people in today’s global economy who weren’t there in the 1970s. Aside from China, there’s also India and the former Soviet countries. Taken together, this comes to about three billion people.

“In the 1970s, these countries were either very poor or closed societies, or both, but that’s not the case now. China’s economy has been growing by about 10% annually for the past 15 years, while India’s annual growth has been more than 6% since the 1990s. In the most recent quarter, India’s economy grew more than 9%. Oil demand in China and India has doubled in the past 10 years and it’s expected to double again over the next eight years. So these two countries alone represent a lot of ongoing demand for many items. In comparison, during the last big gold rise, money was primarily focused in the US, Canada and Western Europe.

“Plus, China and India have historically been interested in gold. India accounts for 23% of consumer gold sales and its gold consumption is expected to rise 33% this year, and China has made it easy for national gold buyers. People in these countries are big savers and if some of these savings keep moving into gold, it’ll provide a very strong boost. When you consider that these and other countries are also adding gold to their reserves, it marks a huge difference in current and future demand for gold compared to the 1970s.

“Another difference this time around is that no country wants a strong currency, in order to compete in the global marketplace. The end result is that gold is now rising around the world, hitting records and attracting attention, reinforcing that investors worldwide are putting more faith in gold. Yet another difference compared to the 1970s is global warming and changing weather patterns, which will continue to be a big force affecting the commodity markets.

“Last year’s hurricane season pushed oil up to record highs. With the new hurricane season just starting, it’s expected to be similar and this could keep upward pressure on oil, other commodities, inflation and gold. Adding these factors to the big six, you can see why this bull market in gold has the potential to be more powerful and bigger than the great bull market of the 1970s. So the next question is, how high could gold go in the years ahead?

“How high is high? We’re looking at $850, the 1980 high, as the next upside target. Once that level is broken, gold will be in new uncharted territory, but we can make some reasonable assumptions. As you know, simply adjusting for inflation, gold would have to reach $2,000 to equal the $850 high in 1980. But since there are major differences now, it’s not unreasonable to assume that gold will eventually go higher than $2,000.

“Another way of looking at it is in percentage terms. In the 1970s, gold rose 2300% in 12 years, from $35 to $850. So far, it’s only risen 189% in the current five-year bull market, from $250 to $722. But if this bull market ends up rising 2300% like the one in the 1970s did, then gold would eventually get to $6,000. As wild as this may seem, remember that $6,000 in the future will not be worth the same as $6,000 today.

“Considering the mega trend change in the Dow Industrials to gold ratio, it also reinforces that these high figures may not be as wild as they sound. Over the past six years, gold has been stronger than the Dow and the ratio between the two is currently at 17.47 (Dow 10991 ÷ gold $629= 17.47). Once these mega trends are in motion, they tend to last for years and at major lows the ratio has historically dropped to between 1 and 3.

“These are just estimates, but let’s say the Dow eventually drops to 7000, which is near the level it was at just a few years ago and not quite a 50% correction of the 1980-90s bull market rise. A ratio of 3 would mean gold at $2,300, and if the ratio were to fall to 2, then gold would eventually hit $3,500. But if the ratio dropped to 1 like it did in 1980, 7000 on the Dow would also mean $7,000 for gold.

“Obviously, we don’t know how this will ultimately end up. But we do know that the ingredients are in place for a 1970s type performance, or better, for gold. Don’t forget, gold was a dead market for over 20 years from 1980 to 2001. Commodities dropped about 80% in real terms and since these markets fell for such a long time, there was little exploration for new metals deposits. That too supports the fundamentals for a long lasting and strong bull market in gold, especially once the public joins the party. But also don’t forget that no market goes straight up or down.

“There will be setbacks and steep corrections along the way and we’re currently in one of those periods. These are normal. The gold bull market of the 1970s, for example, was interrupted by a decline that lasted 1½ years before it resumed its stellar rise. Most important, this is a major, mega trend and it’s going to take time, so don’t get discouraged or impatient. As long as this major bull market stays in force, plan to stay on board and we think you’ll be glad you did.

“Psychologically, gold is still coming out of a 20 year bear market. You’ll remember how negative gold sentiment was back in 2000. Gold was totally tossed aside, so much so that here we are five years later and with gains of 189%, and the public is still out of gold. Gold buying has mainly been by central banks, the Middle East, China, India, the growing ETF, some mutual funds and sophisticated investors. But most important, there’s been buying from around the world. In part, with the global stock markets rising over the last few years, gold hasn’t been in the limelight.
“The gold market today feels like the stock market back lowing a long down period, but the best is still to come. It takes a long time for a bull market to catch wide attention, which is why it can be put into psychological stages. Gold’s first stage was the rise in 2001 to 2003 when few noticed the rise. The second stage is full of worry as doubts are abundant. Producers and investors alike feel the rise may not last, as we’re now seeing.

“The third stage is the mania time when the public gets involved. This is when the most spectacular rise happens. As you know, we’ve been tracking this bull market in steps since 2001, which is different than the psychological stages. And as long as the steps continue, the bull market is on track. The fourth step started last December, and it’s the last step to be completed before record highs are reached. This will happen when gold closes above the 1980 peak near $850. It’ll then be wide open for the public to catch on.

“How far could the current correction go? This is now the million dollar question. Gold is still well above its 65-week moving average now at $500. This is THE major support for gold. For now, keep an eye on the numbers. We had forecast that a move below $610 would mean a steeper B decline is underway and gold could then decline to the $550 level, or possibly to as low as $500.

"On the upside, if gold closes back above $670 and stays there, then a new rise will be starting, which would be exciting because it tends to be the strongest rise in a bull market. Meanwhile, among our recommended holding, we like StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD NYSE), the exchange-traded fund, and, among individual mining stock, Glamis Gold (GLG NYSE), AngloGold Ashanti (AU NYSE), El Dorado Gold (EGO ASE), Newmont Mining (NEM NYSE), and Goldcorp (GG NYSE)."

Editor's Note: For a brief overview of the Aden sisters' take on silver, please check our "Ask the Experts" forum which recently addressed their long-term outlook for silver in response to a reader's question.

http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/141/9/

"Ask the Experts"

Friday, 16 June 2006
Q: I'm getting killed on the silver ETF "SLV". I don't want to pull out. Should I? I got into 100 shares of SLV @ $118. What do you think?

A: When it comes to precious metals, the Aden sisters are unquestionably among the very best in the advisory world, so we turn to them for an assessment of silver. Their Aden Forecast, which had forecast the current pullback, now notes, “Silver is weak below its 15-week moving average at $12.” Note that they had prevsiously forecast that silver could drop as low as its “major bull market support” at the $8.80 level.

However, their long-term take is very optimistic. They explain, “Last month silver rose to its 1983 high, which is also near the mid-channel line. This alone means silver could take a rest but once it breaks clearly above its 1983 high, it’ll be entering the top side of the channel where it could rise sharply. Using the 50% principle on silver, taking the high in New York in 1980 at $48 and the 2001 low near $4, the halfway mark is $26. This shows how cheap silver is, as it hasn’t even risen halfway up its previous major bear market, unlike gold which passed its halfway mark at $550. This says that once silver breaks above its 1983 high, it could reach $26 as its next big picture target."

Whether or not to hold on to a current losing position in expectations for long-term gains is a decision only you can make. But if it’s any consolation to you, the Aden sisters do hold the iShares Silver Trust in their portfolio as a long-term position.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/blogcategory/14/28/

mama mia

21.06.2006, 19:50

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Out-Of-Control Leverage, Emotion, Panic

Mike Hoy
Jun 19, 2006

With the recent beatings the markets have taken there is no shortage of blood in the streets. Historically, in a bull market, this is a signal of terrific buying opportunity. Is this the case now? In my opinion the answer is yes!

There is no debate of the fact that the precious metals have been in a bull market for several years. I have no doubt that the criteria which created the necessity to be a part of this bull market are more obvious today than they were several years ago when this party was just getting started.

There are many questions that individuals can ask to assure themselves that nothing has changed in the long term scheme of things; here are a few simple questions that I ask to remind myself of the fact that "the more things change the more they remain the same."

(1) Have the governments of the world taken any measures to reign in their out of control and exponentially growing spending?

(2) Are those who have built huge reserves of US Dollars content with owning an ever growing percentage of their reserves in worthless paper that can be created at the whim and discretion of a selected few throughout the world?

(3) Is the financial system of the world on solid ground?

(4) Have any measures, other than cheap talk, been taken to create alternatives which will lessen the world's dependency on the declining supply of fossil fuel which in my opinion is the world's NUMBER ONE CULPRIT for the growing increases behind inflation?

I could ask a dozen more questions like these but we already know the simple answers to these questions. I believe the reasons for owning the precious metals have only intensified and become more obvious as each day passes. In the end, if the world continues moving in the direction that it is currently headed ownership of precious metals and precious metal stocks may be the only way to protect ones assets.

I have read many articles which state the blame for the severity of the selloff in the markets are as a result of the "Fed This" and the "Fed That" and "Bernanke This" and Bernanke That!"

In my opinion, the single most important factor behind the severity of the selloff in the markets evolves around the leverage associated with pure speculation and greed. Without a doubt the accelerating price appreciation in the precious metals was beginning to get carried away to the upside. Gold and silver prices were being pushed higher as a result of every "Tom, Dick and Harry" jumping on board the new found bandwagon.

The implosion of the excessive leverage of the hedge funds and commodity funds, in my opinion, was the largest contributing factor in taking what could have been a normal correction and turning it into a "Full Fledged Rout!" The speculation and margin calls fed on themselves to wipe these people out. I am sure there will be some very interesting stories that come to light after the dust settles on these markets.

Most of this speculative money entered this sector solely because of "action and momentum!" Most of these people do not have a clue as to why they should be exposed to the precious metals sector nor do they care! Their only interest lies in the direction and volatility of the sector. As far as I'm concerned I am glad to see them cleaned out! By cleaning this "froth" out of the market the precious metals sector can get back to "business as usual."

Those serious investors who are accumulating gold and silver as a necessity to protect their wealth and assets are not going to change their investment philosophies as a result of gold and silver prices becoming more affordable. I believe the true advocates of gold and silver are grinning from ear to ear as a result of the sharp pullback in prices. Pure logic dictates that the quantities of gold and silver that can be purchased in a correction only increases. An example of this would be the demand for gasoline if the price were to fall over 20% at the pump in a very short period of time; there would be long lines to take advantage of the temporary discount. Make no mistake; everyone would want to fill their tanks!

Those of you who have pruned your portfolios of stocks you no longer want to own know that this cash on the sidelines has come in very handy. In fact, if you are like me, you have been able to pick up some great bargains. This is what corrections are all about; taking advantage of other people's mistakes!

Nobody knows exactly where the bottom will be in the price of the precious metals as well as the precious metal stocks; therefore I am adding to my positions gradually rather than dumping everything in all at once.

If I am correct with this line of reasoning then I am going to look back on the opportunities in today's markets and be very thankful that I built my positions at a time when I was seeing my favorite stocks at prices I never thought I would see again.

In this pullback I have also learned that the investors I stay in closest contact with all share the same thinking that I have. They are amazed at the severity of the pullback but they all realize the value of what they own. They, like me, know that corrections are a normal and healthy part of all markets. They are also very well versed on the fundamentals and the direction of the companies they own.

The funny thing about those who seem to be most concerned or on the verge of panic as a result of the severity of the correction all share one very distinct trait in common and that trait deals with the fact that they are all advocates of technical analysis paying absolutely no attention to the underlying fundamentals of the investments they own.

I have had three people contact me with pure panic in their voices and in each case they never once talked about the fundamentals of the companies they own. All they wanted to talk about was what they believed their charts were trying to tell them.

Please do not think that I do not believe in technical analysis as I do. I was a student of TA back in the 70's when very few charting services even existed. Those services that did exist cost a fortune to subscribe to. I do not give a great deal of credence to charts when dealing with low volume companies where one major buyer or seller can make a chart look like anything he or she desires. I do pay attention to violations of support and resistance levels knowing that this normally precedes a greater move in the same direction.

I would very much like to help these people who have panicked or are on the verge of panic, but past experience tells me that they are their own worst enemies and no amount of effort on my part can help them until they learn to help themselves. Knowledge and education, which usually means starting from the beginning, may be their only salvation. Their greatest enemies are their emotions and acting on impulse. In the end, their greatest source of education will wind up being experience and that unfortunately will come at a very high cost!

As always, everything I write, that I share with you, is my opinion and my opinion alone. It is up to each of you to do your own homework and due diligence as the possibility always exists that I can be wrong.

Mike Hoy
email: mhoy@neb.rr.com
tel: 402-483-4484 Call between 8:00AM and 8:00 PM Central Time.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoy/hoy061906.html

mama mia

22.06.2006, 08:47

:verbeug

mama mia

22.06.2006, 09:23

American Buffalo: die erste 24-karat Gold-Anlagemünze der USA :supi

Die United States Mint der USA prägt Umlauf-, Gedenk- und Anlagemünzen. Im Jahre 1986 erschien die erste Anlagemünze in Gold, der "American Eagle". Die Goldmünze besitzt eine Feinheit von 916,66 oder 22 Karat. In der Folge erschienen eine Version in Silber und Platin.

In einem Gesetz vom 22. Dezember 2005 wurde beschlossen, eine neue Goldmünze höchster Reinheit (9999) herauszugeben. Gemäß einer Tradition wurde ein Motiv auserwählt, daß einer historischen Münze gleicht oder ähnelt. Die Wahl fiel auf das Motiv der 5-Cent-Nickelmünze. Die Gestaltung dieser erstmalig 1913 geprägten Münze, geht auf James Earle Fraser zurück, der ein Schüler von Augustus Saint-Gaudens war.

Auf der einen Münzseite ist ein Indianerportrait abgebildet. Man vermutet, daß dieses Bildnis auf drei verschiedene reale Indianerpersönlichkeiten zurückgeht. Zwei sind bekannt als "Chief Iron Tail" und "Chief Two Moons", über den dritten herrscht aber Unklarheit. Es könnte sich hier um "Chief John Big Tree" oder "John Two Guns" handeln. Der Bison auf der Rückseite der Münze wurde nach einen Zootier des New Yorker Zoos gestaltet.

Die Münze gelangt ab dem 22. Juni 2006 in den Verkauf. Geprägt werden die Stücke in West Point. Der Nennwert beträgt wie beim Eagle 50 US$ und ist gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel. Für Sammler wird es eine Ausgabe in polierter Platte geben. Inwieweit weitere Stückelungen erscheinen werden, ist aktuell noch offen.
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2799

gefällt mir :)

mama mia

22.06.2006, 15:50

http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/MPAnne.jpg Golden Opportunities

By: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden, The Aden Forecast

-- Posted Thursday, 22 June 2006

Gold and the other metals fell sharply this month. But considering they’d risen so far and fast this year, it wasn’t a surprise. It’s basically a normal bump in the road and despite this decline, gold’s still looking good.

SIMILARITIES TO THE 1970s...

We’ve often discussed the reasons why gold is headed higher and why this bull market will likely last for years to come. Basically, there are six major factors driving this bull market.

Briefly these are: 1. too much spending, 2. too much money is being produced, 3. inflation, 4. the weak U.S. dollar, 5. international tensions and 6. China’s growth and ongoing demand for commodities, which is coinciding with a new upmove in the 200 year commodity cycle.

The last big bull market in gold was in the 1970s and it lasted 12 years. In recent years, we’ve seen many similarities to the 1970s, suggesting this rise could also be similar.

In the 1970s, for instance, there was big spending on guns and butter as the Vietnam war dragged on. Deficits were large, and inflation, oil and gold were soaring. The dollar was dropping and the president was unpopular.

Today there’s even bigger spending as the war on terror continues. Deficits are huge, and oil and gold have been soaring, inflation is picking up, the dollar is declining and the president is also unpopular.

...BUT MORE COMPLEX TODAY...

But there are also differences in today’s world compared to the 1970s. These differences suggest the current gold rise could be even bigger than the bull market of the 1970s, and they provide even more fuel for gold’s bull market.

Most important, there are nearly 50% more people in today’s global economy who weren’t there in the 1970s. Aside from China, there’s also India and the former Soviet countries. Taken together, this comes to about three billion people.

In the 1970s, these countries were either very poor or closed societies, or both, but that’s not the case now.

China’s economy has been growing by about 10% annually for the past 15 years, while India’s annual growth has been more than 6% since the 1990s. In the most recent quarter, India’s economy grew more than 9%. Oil demand in China and India has doubled in the past 10 years and it’s expected to double again over the next eight years. So these two countries alone represent a lot of ongoing demand for many items.

Plus, China and India have historically been interested in gold. India accounts for 23% of consumer gold sales and its gold consumption is expected to rise 33% this year, and China has made it easy for national gold buyers. People in these countries are big savers and if some of these savings keep moving into gold, it’ll provide a very strong boost.

When you consider that these and other countries are also adding gold to their reserves, it marks a huge difference in current and future demand for gold compared to the 1970s.

... AND THERE’S MORE

Another difference this time around is that no country wants a strong currency, in order to compete in the global marketplace. The end result is that gold is now rising around the world, hitting records and attracting attention, reinforcing that investors worldwide are putting more faith in gold.

Yet another difference compared to the 1970s is global warming and

changing weather patterns, which will continue to be a big force affecting the commodity markets. Last year’s hurricane season pushed oil up to record highs. With the new hurricane season just starting, it’s expected to be similar and this could keep upward pressure on oil, other commodities, inflation and gold.

Adding these factors to the big six, you can see why this bull market in gold has the potential to be more powerful and bigger than the great bull market of the 1970s. So the next question is, how high could gold go in the years ahead?

HOW HIGH IS HIGH?

http://goldseek.com/news/AdenResearch/2006/6-21af/adench1-jun21.GIF

We’re looking at $850, the 1980 high, as the next upside target (see Chart 1, which shows gold since 1967). Once that level is broken, gold will be in new uncharted territory, but we can make some reasonable assumptions…

Simply adjusting for inflation, gold would have to reach $2,000 to equal the $850 high in 1980. But since there are major differences now, it’s not unreasonable to assume that gold will eventually go higher than $2,000.

Another way of looking at it is in percentage terms. In the 1970s, gold rose 2300% in 12 years, from $35 to $850. So far, it’s only risen 189% in the current five year bull market, from $250 to $722. But if this bull market ends up rising 2300% like the one in the 1970s did, then gold would eventually get to $6,000. As wild as this may seem, remember that $6,000 in the future will not be worth the same as $6,000 today.

http://goldseek.com/news/AdenResearch/2006/6-21af/adench2-jun21.GIF

Considering the mega trend change in the Dow Industrials to gold ratio, it also reinforces that these high figures may not be as wild as they sound (see Chart 2, which shows the ratio since 1901). Over the past six years, this ratio has been declining, meaning gold has been stronger than the Dow, and the ratio between the two is currently at 18.78 (Dow 11099 ÷ gold $591= 18.78). Once these mega trends are in motion, they tend to last for years and at major lows the ratio has historically dropped to between 1 and 3.

These are just estimates, but let’s say the Dow eventually drops to 7000, which is near the level it was at just a few years ago and not quite a 50% correction of the 1980-90s bull market rise. A ratio of 3 would mean gold at $2,300, and if the ratio were to fall to 2, then gold would eventually hit $3,500. But if the ratio dropped to 1 like it did in 1980, 7000 on the Dow would also mean $7,000 for gold.

INGREDIENTS IN PLACE

Obviously, we don’t know how this will ultimately end up. But we do know that the ingredients are in place for a 1970s type performance, or better, for gold. Don’t forget, gold was a dead market for over 20 years from 1980 to 2001. Commodities dropped about 80% in real terms and since these markets fell for such a long time, there was little exploration for new metals deposits. That too supports the fundamentals for a long lasting and strong bull market in gold, especially once the public joins the party.

But also don’t forget that no market goes straight up or down. There will be setbacks and steep corrections along the way and we’re currently in one of those periods. These are normal. The gold bull market of the 1970s, for example, was interrupted by a decline that lasted 1½ years before it resumed its stellar rise.

Most important, this is a major, mega trend and it’s going to take time, so don’t get discouraged or impatient. As long as this major bull market stays in force, plan to stay on board and we think you’ll be glad you did.

--

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com/)

-- Posted Thursday, 22 June 2006
Previous Articles by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden (http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/)

http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1150988460.php

mama mia

23.06.2006, 09:09

Some Thoughts on Gold's Steep Correction

By Doug Casey
The International Speculator (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0606B)
Jun 23, 2006

DOUG CASEY is the author of Crisis Investing, one of the few financial books that made it on the New York Times Best-Seller list and spent 26 weeks there, ranking #1. Due to his contrarian views, Doug is a well-known and popular speaker at investment conferences. He is also the editor and publisher of the International Speculator, one of the world's oldest and most respected monthly newsletters dedicated to gold and silver stocks poised to produce profits of 100% or better in 12 months or less. Read on for his outlook on Gold's Corrections or click here (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0606B) to learn more about the International Speculator.

Not surprisingly, gold's steep correction has generated some concern for resource stock investors. So let's take a look at the gold market.

I figure the metal "should" be worth something like $1,000 an ounce now to be in a rough equilibrium with the value of other things the dollar can buy. That's an arbitrary guess; there's no exact method I know of to determine gold's real dollar value. If the U.S. dollar were sound, there would be a fixed amount of gold in the treasury for every dollar in circulation; in the 19th century, a $20 note was a receipt for an ounce of gold held on deposit, and a "dollar" was just a convenient name for a 20th of an ounce of gold.

Today, of course, the relationship between the dollar and the amount of gold the U.S. Government has to redeem it with is so tenuous that it's completely academic. But, assuming that the government were just to make good on dollars held by foreigners - forget about Americans - how high a gold price might be needed?

First we need to know how many dollars are outside the U.S. Nobody knows exactly. They constitute the reserves of most foreign central banks and the de-facto currency of record in dozens of countries for ordinary citizens. The amounts are almost beyond belief; it's said that, in Moscow alone, there are more US$100 bills circulating than in the entire U.S. Could $5 trillion be the number? If so, and if there are the reported 261 million ounces in the U.S. Treasury, the value of that gold comes to about $20,000 an ounce. Just to make good on the reported U.S. trade deficit of $800 billion for the last year, we're talking $3,000 gold. Forget about what the numbers would be if you added in the domestic money supply, M-3. Especially since they don't even publish it anymore.

But the numbers, at this point, are academic. My basic view on gold is unchanged. And the fact it had a 37% gain this year, reaching a peak of $725 on May 12, or has given back 22% since then is meaningless in the big scheme of things. As I've said before, before this market is over, gold isn't just going through the roof; it's going to the moon. And the market is by no means over. It's just starting to wake up from a generation-long slumber.

Why did it heat up the way it did? Perhaps the attention of the traders was drawn to gold by Bush's brinkmanship and buffoonery over Iran. Perhaps it was people noticing that gold was a relative laggard among the metals in this bull market. Perhaps the market was paying more attention to the Russians and the Chinese, among others, divesting dollars. There is solid evidence that dehedging by the producers helped fuel the surprisingly strong rally, and that that dehedging is now slowing.

Likely it was a confluence of these and other factors. Thousands of hedge funds, most of which collect their 20% profits just to follow the trend, piled in. As the herd took their positions - especially when the short-term oriented traders had all bought - momentum slowed, and it went into reverse.

Remember that most of these traders were toddlers the last time gold got anyone's attention, back in the 1970s, and so they only know what they've been taught - that gold is an anachronism, a valueless relic. Consequently, they have almost no understanding of gold's fundamentals.

Consider, for instance, a primary reason given for gold's big correction is that higher interest rates will make gold a less attractive asset. As if there is some hard and fast rule that says gold can't move up when interest rates are rising. But that ignores the clear historical precedence of the 1970s when interest rates were surging at the same time as gold.

It's unwise to try picking tops and bottoms in the market. But, the way I see it, gold has made its bottom as you read this. The fundamentals haven't changed; there's only been a swing in traders' sentiments.

As for the gold stocks. We're still in the "Wall of Worry" stage of the market. The larger public is not involved, and the thin slice that is, is just moving with the price of the metal. The downdraft has been aggravated by the weakness in the NY market. Remember, gold stocks do best when both gold and stocks are rising and worst when both are falling.

My guess is that now, after losing perhaps 25-30%, the big selling is over. The stocks will drift through summer, and the game will be on again come the fall. You should use this time to pick through the wreckage and put in stink bids on the issues likely to lead the market back.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey062306_quote.jpgAlthough the best indicator is to watch popular magazines, with an eye to doing the opposite of what their covers scream, there's still too little public interest in gold to merit their attention. And it's too early in the market for your neighborhood cocktail party chatter to tell you much. Best to use your own psychology: when you feel bold and enthusiastic, sell. And when you're fearful and depressed - like now - buy, or at least line up your targets. Don't forget how much higher these stocks are now than a year ago. And remember they're likely to be much higher a year from now.

The best recent analogue remains the Internet market. Every time those stocks sold off from about 1995 on, it just set the stage for an even stronger resurgence. That's how this market will play out as well.

Finally, a reminder that volatility is the norm, not the exception, in gold and silver stocks. It's very important you only invest in them to the level of being completely comfortable with a 50% or even 90% loss. That's not just a passing platitude, but perhaps the best bit of advice I can give you. Reading some of the emails we've received these last few days, it's clear that some of you probably got carried away and so are now panicking. That is never the right frame of mind, under pretty much any circumstance, but especially when it comes to investing.

As the gold and silver stocks come roaring back in a month or so, do yourself a favor and scrape enough off the table to get you back to the point where even steep losses are unconcerning.

Meanwhile, patience, steady nerves and a focus on loading up on the best of the best at bargain prices will win the day.

To learn more about becoming a subscriber to the International Speculator, click here (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0606B).

-Doug Casey
The International Speculator

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey_sig.gif

Casey

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey062306.html

mama mia

23.06.2006, 09:15

http://www.miningmx.com/pics/icons/line.gif Oversold gold will regain ground
Colin Abrams
Posted: Thu, 22 Jun 2006
[miningmx.com (http://www.miningmx.com/)] -- WITH the dollar gold price having dropped below the $600 per ounce level, the question is where will it find support? Fortunately its chart provides an answer. We also look at a chart of the silver price, which has had a phenomenal run this year. It is also correcting right now, and we consider where it too will find support. The current state of the precious metals markets prompts the question of whether their bull run in is over or not. Indeed, the charts of both gold and silver show their prices heading towards support levels, from where they’re expected to resume their prior bull trends.

GOLD PRICE ($) – becoming oversold Trend: Short-term down, but oversold.
Strategy: Buy the gold price on a close above line 2.
Chart 1. (Daily) Click on image to enlarge
http://www.miningmx.com/cm_pics/gold_silver/1534-0-0-0_341045.jpg
(http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:goPopup%28%27http://www.miningmx.com/cm_pics/gold_silver/1534-0-0-0_341046.jpg%27,920,600%29;)

Having broken below line 1 support ($602), the gold price is heading rapidly towards its closest support level, which is $575 on the spot price. This level is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (a natural support level) of the March – May rally.

If the price pushes through $575, closing below it for two consecutive days, it will then retrace all the way down to the 200-day moving average at $545/$550.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI, on top) is entering the oversold level, which is typically a sign that the price will rally very soon.

Therefore, buy the gold price on a closing price above line 2 resistance. Line 2 is at $595 on Monday 19th June, and falling at an angle of $4.00 per day thereafter. Place your initial stop-loss as a close below the low formed before the breakout above line 2. Then look for a re-test of the $726 May high. The bigger picture points to an eventual re-test its early-1980s high of $850. SILVER ($) – nearing its target Trend: Short/medium-term down. Long-term up.
Strategy: Sell short with caution, then prepare to buy. Chart 2. (Daily) Click on image to enlarge
http://www.miningmx.com/cm_pics/gold_silver/1534-0-0-0_341065.jpg
(http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:goPopup%28%27http://www.miningmx.com/cm_pics/gold_silver/1534-0-0-0_341067.jpg%27,920,600%29;)

The silver price has formed a medium-term head and shoulders pattern (labelled S-H-S), and is heading rapidly to its minimum downside target of $9.88 per ounce, spot price (measured as the height of the head and shoulders projected down).

Interestingly, this target coincides with the 200-day moving average, which typically provides support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI, on top) is becoming oversold, which means that a rally is likely to begin soon.

For now, the strategy is to sell short on bounces towards line 2, but with caution. (Line 2 is at $11.00 on Monday 19th, and falling at an angle of $0.10 per day thereafter, to $10.90 etc). Take profits on shorts at the target ($9.88). The stop-loss for shorts is a closing price above line 2. When the price does eventually close above line 2, buy to go long for a rally to re-test its May high of $14.95. For more recommendations and charts by the author on SA and overseas stocks, indices, and currencies, please go to www.themarket.co.za (http://www.themarket.co.za)

http://www.goldcolony.com/viewarticle.asp?articleid=10103

mama mia

23.06.2006, 10:32

Retail investors fuel growth of gold ETFs
Fri Jun 23, 2006 7:34 AM BST

By Atul Prakash

LONDON (Reuters) - Growing retail interest in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is set to lift the popularity of these relatively new investment vehicles, an industry official said.

"We have just scratched the surface and there is a lot of room to grow," said Stuart Thomas, managing director of World Gold Trust Services, sponsor of streetTRACKS Gold Shares.

U.S.-listed streetTRACKS is the world's largest gold ETF, accounting for 73 percent of 500 tonnes of gold -- worth about $9 billion (5 billion pounds) -- accumulated by all such funds in the world.

ETFs enable investors to trade securities on an exchange and give investors a return based on commodities prices, without the need to trade futures or to take physical delivery.

"Retail investors, hedge funds and even some of the mutual funds have adopted this product. The pension fund community is just starting to do their work on commodities, and on gold specifically," he told Reuters on Thursday.

Institutional investors were instrumental in earlier growth of the fund, launched in late 2004, but this year's sharp price gains had lured retail investors and that trend should continue.

"While our initial success was underpinned by huge institutional sponsorship, over the last 12 to 16 months we have seen a massive shift from predominantly institutional holders to retail holders," he said.

"The composition has changed dramatically. We have opened up gold investment to an entirely new set of investors."

According to an estimate in March, about two-thirds of streetTRACKS' assets were held by retail investors.

Thomas said tax laws in the United States had dampened the spirit of some investors as long-term capital gain rates on equities were 15 percent while allocated gold was treated as a collectable and attracted 28 percent tax.

Also, registered investment companies could not derive more than 10 percent of their income from gold, he added.

"If the tax law were more equitable, I believe you would have seen an ever bigger inflow into products like this."

LONG-TERM INVESTORS

Gold held by streetTACKS has doubled to 366 tonnes in a year, of which seven percent of that rise came in the past month -- a period that saw highly volatile precious metal price moves.

Gold surged to a 26-year peak of $730 an ounce in mid-May, but has now fallen about 19 percent to $590.

Thomas said retail investors were expected to retain their holdings in ETFs despite choppy markets.

"The customers who are behind the success of streetTRACKS are not the customers that are engaged in speculative trading on a futures exchange. It's completely different.

"While we have massive institutional holdings that tend to be more tactical in nature, retail investors tend to be far more strategic."

Thomas said ETFs had potential to attract large investments in major consumer markets. "Given the affinity for gold in the Asia-Pacific region, it has got the potential to be very large."

But it remained to be seen whether investors in countries such as India -- the world's largest consumer -- who had used physical gold as an asset for centuries would be willing to accept a paper security backed by physical gold. ;)

The other gold ETFs are in the UK, Australia and in South Africa. Barclays Global Investors' iShares COMEX Gold Trust is listed in the United States.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=fundsNews&storyID=2006-06-23T063430Z_01_NOA323524_RTRUKOC_0_MARKETS-GOLD-ETFS.xml&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=1

:rolleyes paper :o

mama mia

23.06.2006, 17:18

SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT

The Central Bank Gambit

Given the drubbing that has taken place in the markets over the past month or so, we thought it necessary that
this issue of Markets at a Glance be dedicated to an explanation of what we believe is happening in these
rather turbulent times. Given the violence of the recent market correction, investors cannot be blamed for
believing that a global meltdown is taking place, the brunt of which is being felt in the sectors that have
heretofore performed the best; i.e., commodities, energy, and gold. There can be no denying that the first
quarter was a “great year” for commodity investors. Commodity prices, and commodity equities, soared. So
much so that one could take the pragmatic view that commodities et al were “overbought” and therefore due for
a correction. However, we are of the belief that there are greater machinations at work beneath the surface
than mere technical indicators. In our view, there is a chess game of paramount importance being played that
is driving current market conditions... at least in the short term.

The game of chess in question pits the world’s central banks against the “free” markets. The opening move in
the central banks’ repertoire was a gambit. This occurred, not coincidentally, at the same time that commodity
prices were hitting new highs and gold was breaking out above $700 per ounce. In chess parlance, a gambit is
a ruse or trick in the form of a sacrifice of material (usually a pawn) with the hope of gaining a decisive
advantage in space and time early in the game. If this advantage isn’t made to count (i.e. the bankers’ initiative
peters out), then the market’s advantage in material will eventually win the day. We’ll call this opening the
Central Bank Gambit. It is a desperate move to take control of an inflationary environment where they may
already have lost control. For now the central banks have the initiative and are on the attack. But if the
markets are able to hang on, then they will win the endgame and checkmate the central banks.

So what does chess have to do with financial markets, you may ask? It goes without saying that it has been of
no small concern to the central banks that commodities have had a spectacular run in the first four and a half
months of the year. Gold started the year at $515 per ounce. It peaked in May at $730 per ounce. Oil started
the year at $61 per barrel. It peaked in May at $75 per barrel. Copper: $2.06 per pound at the start of the year,
almost $4 per pound in May. Silver: $8.80 per ounce at the start of the year, $15.20 per ounce in May. This is
on top of gains enjoyed since the commodity bull market began in earnest in 2001. Using the CRB Index as a
proxy, commodities as a whole have doubled in that time and some of the major commodities, such as oil,
copper, and iron ore, have done far better than that. This commodity bull run has indeed been ubiquitous and
long lasting, with practically all commodities soaring with hardly an exception. In every which way it was
reminiscent of hyperinflation.

Clearly, the central banks could not let this state of affairs continue while at the same time claiming that inflation
was under control. They realized that something had to be done. Based on the latest inflation , annualized
inflation is running in excess of 5% so far this year. By mid-May, the housing market was clearly in decline
and interest rates were rising across the yield curve. The financial markets and the economy were being
threatened. Inflation had to be stopped in its tracks, come hell or high water. In many ways it was a desperate
move – a gambit. They had to reign in liquidity (or at least appear to do so) and talk tough on inflation. They
knew full well that such a move would bring down global equity markets as well. But the stock markets were
likely doomed regardless. Better that they come down when commodities, and particularly gold, are coming
down as well, than to have a broad market crash while gold continues to soar. The central banks wanted to
preemptively discredit gold as the “flight to safety” investment vehicle. They wanted to ensure that gold won’t
be the place to hide when global liquidity takes it on the chin and forces asset prices down.

That was the move envisioned, not just by the Federal Reserve, but by central banks around the world. The
central banks conspired to raise rates in tandem, some unexpectedly. Recently we’ve seen the European
Central Bank, India, South Korea, South Africa, Turkey, Denmark, Thailand, and Switzerland all raise interest
rates within days of each other. Japan proclaimed the imminent end of “quantitative easing” and the Yen carry
trade. Then came the tough talk on inflation by the world’s central bankers. It was a mass chorus: a newfound
vigilance on inflation – it must be quelled at all cost. The primary target: gold.

Gold took the brunt of the central banks’ attack. The price of gold is the outwardly public manifestation of
inflation. By bringing down gold it was hoped that other commodities would be taken down as well, thus easing
inflationary fears. But therein lies the Achilles Heel of the central banks, and what will ultimately prove their
gambit to be unsound. Under a fiat currency system, the central banks are the undisputed masters of paper…
but they are rather impotent when it comes to controlling the market for “real” things. As such, there is little they
can do to manipulate the markets for things like oil and copper – the markets for these commodities are just too
big. Oil, for example, trades to the tune of six billion dollars per day and is too large for central banks to have
any say over. The market for gold, on the other hand, is only 1/30th the size and the easiest commodity to
manipulate in the short term. Furthermore, the central banks still have some gold in their vaults as added
ammunition. So the game plan was simple: hammer gold and cause a selling panic in all commodities.
Although some kind of correction may have been expected in commodities given the magnitude of their
escalation in such a short period of time, the violence of it was orchestrated and in every which way intended
and cajoled by central bank action.

Be that as it may, investors in “real” things can take heart in the chart on the top of the next page:

In our opinion, this chart epitomizes the futility of the Central Bank Gambit. Merely looking at the upper black
line, much has been made of the equity market turnaround in the past three years. It appears to be up 50%
from the bottom; albeit, still down 18% from its 2000 peak. Nonetheless, it would seem that copious amounts of
Fed liquidity have successfully reversed the ill-effects of the stock market crash of 2000. Chalk one up for
monetary policy!

The blue line, on the other hand, tells an altogether different story. This line measures the performance of the
S&P 500 in inflation-adjusted Euros. Here the comeback has been much less impressive. In fact, there has
hardly been a comeback at all. This is the performance that a foreign investor might see. A US equity market
that is still flailing along the bottom, and down 42.5% from its peak to boot.

Using gold as the “base currency” (appropriately, the gold line in the above chart), the performance of the US
stock market has been even more dismal. The S&P still looks like it’s in freefall! Perhaps even more
interestingly, the recent drubbing of gold in the past month (resulting in an ever so slight uptick in the S&P
relative to gold) has hardly changed the picture at all. The S&P is still down almost 60% from its peak relative
to gold.

http://www.goldseitenforum.de/attachment.php?attachmentid=8741

So has the Fed, through easy monetary policy, successfully fought off the bursting of the stock market bubble of
2000? In nominal terms yes. In real terms no. This goes to show that the Fed is in a box when it comes to
manipulating markets. It is unable to prop up the markets relative to “real” things, regardless of how much
liquidity it provides and how much money it prints. Gold, commodities, and all things real have been the places
to be this decade and, in our opinion, will continue to be so.

Nothing has changed regarding our view on inflation. The economic policies of the US, in the form of twin
deficits and reliance on asset bubbles for economic growth, have been fundamentally unsound and this is being
reflected in the value of the dollar. In spite of recent feather pluming on inflation, we do not believe that central
bankers are serious about pulling the reins on inflation at any cost. They may talk the talk, but when push
comes to shove they won’t be able to walk the walk. Historically, central bankers have been chronic debasers
of money over time. They are addicted to money-induced asset bubbles. Although the central banks don’t
mind seeing gold and commodity prices crash, history shows that they have a soft spot for equity and housing
markets. Nary has a crash ever occurred in these areas without the central banks turning on the spigots. We
highly doubt it will be any different this time.

This is why we believe the Central Bank Gambit will ultimately backfire, as all orchestrated market
manipulations do. Not only is gold now cheaper to buy, but its underlying fundamentals (shortage of supply
versus demand) remain as favourable as ever. Furthermore, high prices in other major commodities have
failed to impede demand. It only stands to reason that the likelihood of shortages will only be greater at the
artificially-induced lower prices that the central banks want. Although the correction was a painful one (as it
was intended to be), we believe the long term trend for commodities remains intact. It is also worth noting that
the price of oil has barely budged, remaining in the $70 per barrel range in spite of the liquidity scare.

One thing that central bank maneuvers have caused is a crash in global equity markets. If a financial crisis
were to ensue as a result, we believe gold will once again shine.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-2006.pdf

mama mia

23.06.2006, 19:42

;)

mama mia

23.06.2006, 19:54

:verbeug

http://www.goldseitenforum.de/attachment.php?attachmentid=8742

mama mia

23.06.2006, 22:32

;)

mama mia

24.06.2006, 12:33

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/zeal_button_gold.gifGaming HUI Corrections

Adam Hamilton
Archives (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm?321gold)
Jun 24, 2006

After nearly five weeks of getting relentlessly hammered and eviscerated, it was great to see the flagship HUI unhedged gold stock index stabilize a bit this week. The HUI managed to find some support near its 200-day moving average and gave battered gold stock investors and speculators a chance to catch their breaths.

With the HUI plunging 31% over 23 trading days between May 10th and June 13th, the short-term pain for those who rode it down has been intense. But as always in the markets, there is a silver lining. At least two major things have been accomplished by the HUI's sharp decline which will help this bull's ultimate longevity.

The most important is that sentiment is being rebalanced. The extreme greed rampant in early May is rapidly bleeding away and balance is being restored. Instead of only seeing folks wildly enthusiastic about gold stocks like six weeks ago, today a healthy cross section of optimism and pessimism is being reestablished.

Balanced sentiment enables a long and orderly march higher in a bull market. The longer a bull climbs in this normal fashion, the more mainstream investors it will ultimately attract. And the more capital that migrates into a bull due to its healthy behavior, the higher it will ultimately be driven before it eventually goes Stage Three parabolic and ends. This means vastly higher profits potential for the early contrarians.

The HUI's sharp decline has also crushed a dangerous falsehood. Six weeks ago all kinds of people in the gold stock community were advancing New-Era-type arguments claiming that the HUI did not need to correct despite its massive rise over the past year. These foolish claims were troubling because they hoodwinked a lot of naïve investors and speculators into buying gold stocks at very high prices in April and early May.

Before its sharp 31% slide the mere concept of the potential for a correction was widely ridiculed, as is often the case near major interim tops when euphoria trumps logic and prudent judgment based on market history. But now that the inevitable correction (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/pmcorrect.htm) has arrived, no one attempts to argue that it was not a correction. This newfound agreement among virtually all gold stock traders that corrections happen offers a fantastic opportunity to study them.

Interestingly the recent slide in the HUI is the sixth major correction in its bull to date. These events are nothing new and need to be expected periodically after major uplegs give up their ghosts. Corrections should not be perceived as threats, but as wonderful opportunities. Corrections provide the best buying prices in powerful ongoing bulls for both investors and speculators to add new long positions.

Since corrections naturally follow uplegs, and the same emotions of greed and fear drive these cycles time and time again within a secular bull, corrections can be gamed. While studying bull-to-date history won't reveal exactly when corrections are coming or exactly how low they will go, it will illuminate the general seasons when corrections are most probable as well as the most likely levels for the resulting interim-low buying opportunities.

This first chart is the latest update of one we have used many times at Zeal throughout this gold stock bull. It is a secular rhythm chart of the HUI, showing the six major uplegs and six major corrections that have manifested themselves in this index since its bull market began. Understanding this chart is very valuable because it helps set expectations about what kinds of gains and losses are possible in the HUI based on precedent.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton062406/Zeal062306A.gif Including our latest awesome specimen, the six major uplegs of this gold stock bull so far have averaged incredible 104% gains over 156 trading days each. Hypothetically if all of these uplegs had been traded perfectly, which is admittedly impossible, a speculator could have increased his initial capital by over 64x since late 2000! Meanwhile a buy-and-hold investor, if perfectly timed, would be up 11x.

Now an 11x buy-and-hold gain since November 2000 is extraordinary by any standards. Nevertheless, the difference between the hypothetical 11x investor win and the hypothetical 64x speculator win is utterly enormous. This ought to give investors an idea of why speculators like me seek to actively trade this incredible HUI bull market. Even if a speculator only managed to capture half of the potential gains possible from trading the HUI, he would still be up 32x bull-to-date tripling the performance of the buy-and-hold investor.

Speculating on the big swings in the HUI is not an exercise designed to achieve merely marginally better gains than buying and holding, but to blast them out of the water like a nuclear-tipped torpedo. Trading is certainly a much riskier strategy than holding, but the potential rewards vastly outweigh the additional risks for those who have the risk capital, disposition, and risk tolerance necessary to actively speculate.

As you study the major uplegs above, one attribute in particular really sticks out. The scale and magnitude of the major HUI uplegs has alternated since 2002. First a massive upleg will launch, more than doubling the HUI in a short period of time running from six months to a year. After these massive uplegs, big corrections arrive to bleed off the excessively bullish sentiment. But then the next uplegs after these corrections tend to be rather anemic with much smaller gains than the massive uplegs. I call these consolidation uplegs.

I have been studying this phenomenon for a couple of years (http://www.zealllc.com/2004/huilev.htm) and find it quite fascinating. There has to be some underlying reason why massive uplegs are typically followed by consolidation uplegs. The leading theory in my mind has to do with speculator psychology surrounding major new bull-to-date highs in the HUI.

During a massive upleg like the one we just witnessed, the HUI rockets higher as more and more capital floods into gold stocks. Naturally this makes the HUI soar, threatening to shoot vertical at the end of these massive uplegs. Including our latest specimen that just failed in May, these massive uplegs have averaged amazing 136% gains over just 183 trading days, or nine months. Obviously riding these is the mother lode for gold stock speculators.

But after a massive upleg finally reaches its apex when no new buyers can be enticed in, the inevitable sentiment-balancing correction arrives. The correction bleeds off the greed and paves the way for the next upleg, but so far that next upleg has been a comparably anemic consolidation upleg. In these consolidation uplegs the HUI advances far enough to challenge its highs from the previous massive upleg but it doesn't exceed them. Why?

The massive uplegs are so immense that they drive the HUI up to dazzling new bull-to-date highs. When these highs are first reached at massive-upleg apexes, they seem foreign and a bit scary. Massive upleg 2 above saw the HUI highs blast from 75ish to 150ish. Massive upleg 4 put 250 on the map. And the latest massive upleg 6 carried us just shy of 400. Just as it took some time to see 150 as normal back in summer 2002 it will take some time now for gold stock speculators to view 400 as reasonable.

The way new highs that seem incredible now become widely accepted as a new base is via a long sideways consolidation. The longer a price trades near a new high, or at least well above the previous widely accepted high, the more comfortable traders will become with it. The consolidation uplegs after the massive uplegs serve this purpose, they trade sideways and establish new normality for much higher highs.

As a consolidation upleg nears the levels where the previous massive upleg topped, some speculators start selling as they perceive the old highs as major resistance. This selling feeds on itself and initiates corrections, carving a second top near the levels of the previous massive upleg. While smaller, the consolidation uplegs are very important because they build confidence and create the foundation for the next massive upleg.

Obviously since we have just had a massive upleg this pattern suggests a consolidation upleg is in the cards for major upleg 7. If this pattern holds true, this next upleg would top somewhere around 400ish. This would help establish a strong base near 400 for the next massive upleg, the HUI's eighth. Of course the problem with pattern analysis is that patterns can break at any time, and this one may very well already be over.

With the gold bull that drives the HUI now in Stage Two (http://www.zealllc.com/2005/goldtwo2.htm), anything is possible. In gold, Stage Two is the time when global investors start chasing gold so the amount of capital seeking to buy gold balloons tremendously. If mainstream stock investors follow gold's lead and start buying the gold stocks with ever increasing capital inflows, this may short-circuit the alternating massive-consolidation upleg pattern of Stage One.

Either way upleg 7 plays out is fine. If it is a consolidation upleg we will be ready for it since our expectations for it are much more modest than for a massive upleg. Understanding that a lesser upleg is probable will mitigate the psychological pain felt if the HUI tops near 400ish next time around. But if upleg 7 bucks the pattern and proves to be massive again since Stage Two is here, then our positions will just ride it higher until their trailing stops are triggered in the eventual correction that ends the upleg. Be ready for either outcome.

While I am excited about the upcoming upleg 7, at the moment I am much more interested in correction 6. After plunging 31% in 23 days do the bull-to-date probabilities suggest we are out of the woods yet? Interestingly, if we average the five major HUI corrections before this one, they had an average loss of 30% over 88 trading days. Since we are already down 31% now, we have already exceeded the magnitude metric of 30%. This suggests it is highly likely that the worst of this correction is already behind us.

But not surprisingly the corrections after massive uplegs tend to be bigger than those after consolidation uplegs. Corrections are often somewhat symmetrical with their preceding uplegs. After massive uplegs 2 and 4, the HUI corrected 36% and 34% respectively. This averages out to 35% over 73 trading days. So if correction 6 follows the post-massive-upleg correction precedent, then we probably have a little farther down to go yet. A 35% HUI correction off the early May highs would drag this index down to 255ish.

While the probabilities suggest that thankfully the worst is behind us this time around in depth terms, this correction nevertheless remains very young in time terms. The HUI only fell for 23 days so far as of its latest bounce on June 13th. If we run this correction out to today in duration terms, it is still only 29 days old. This compares to 88 days on average for all the major HUI corrections and 73 days on average for post-massive-upleg corrections. Either way the duration so far looks very young.

Remember that the purpose of corrections is not only to remove euphoria from prices, but from sentiment. The longer a correction takes to run its course, the more sentiment damage is done. I have seen this time and time again in this gold stock bull. If the HUI is still trading near today's levels or a little lower two months from now, I guarantee there will be a lot more disappointment, fear, and even despair than there is today. Time is a necessary element for a correction to gradually bleed away over-exuberant sentiment.

Since massive uplegs 2, 4, and 6 and their resulting corrections have so much in common, I wanted to see them all in common terms. So I indexed each one individually, making the interim low ahead of each massive upleg 0 and the interim high at the apex of each upleg 100. This approach makes it much easier to compare them in duration terms, to see how they were tactically ebbing and flowing relative to their peers at any given time.

I didn't know how this exercise would turn out, but this chart ended up being pretty interesting. The three massive HUI uplegs are charted in individually indexed terms on the left axis. The horizontal axis is denominated in days. Day 0 is each upleg's apex, so negative days lead up to it during uplegs and positive days represent the resulting corrections. Naturally these are trading days, not calendar days, just as in most market analysis.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton062406/Zeal062306B.gif You have to admit the massive HUI upleg 6 that just ended felt enormous, so I was surprised to find out that it was the slowest massive upleg yet. It took the HUI 248 trading days to rise 137%. This is still a staggering gain in less than a year, but it was at a much slower pace than the two massive uplegs before it. Upleg 6 was also unique in that it had an initial interim top followed by a multi-month proto-correction. I discussed this development in more detail in our current monthly newsletter.

Other than these key differences, the upleg patterns carved by these three massive uplegs look similar in duration terms. In each case the uplegs started fairly gradually when few believed in them and sentiment was still rotten from the preceding corrections. Then they started accelerating higher at a more rapid pace in the middle as more investors and speculators started believing in them and hence throwing capital at them.

Their final surges didn't happen until the last 40 trading days or so, exciting periods of time when 40% to 60% of the total gains of the entire massive uplegs accrued. These final surges led to near vertical price movements each time which highlighted how overbought the HUI was becoming and how desperately a correction was needed to restore sentiment balance. These corrections came in three separate ways.

Upleg 2, which had the shortest correction, consolidated for about 28 days after its top but then it promptly fell off a cliff. This brutal plunge was the sharpest HUI correction by far of this entire bull. This correction was also unique in that it was virtually uninterrupted, it was a literal plunge straight down. It certainly makes the correction 6 that we have been watching in recent weeks seem mild by comparison.

Upleg 4, which had the longest correction, initially ground slowly lower off the tops while consolidating. The HUI didn't really start plunging until about 83 days into this correction. Once the plunge phase started it didn't last too long, but it sure did a lot of damage to stock prices and sentiment. This particular deceptive and delayed correction happened in April and early May 2004. It caught most folks off guard.

For you rHUI aficionados, the HUI actually hit its 200dma in April 2004 on the first of these three legs down, near 70 indexed. Yet it continued plunging under 0.80x relative! This severe 2004 breach of the HUI's 200dma, along with another one in 2005 that also fell under 0.80x relative, is the reason why we cannot necessarily rely on the HUI's 200dma to hold as support today. The HUI has not bounced right near its 200dma for several years.

I was amazed when I noticed where corrections 2 and 4 ended in indexed terms, 38.3 and 38.2 respectively. This means that both these corrections, even though they were quite different in duration and profile, both ended at the same level. Once they plunged low enough so 61.8% of the preceding massive uplegs' gains were wiped out, they ended and major interim lows were carved. These events also marked some of the best buying opportunities of this entire bull.

Now you veteran traders instantly recognized these were classic Fibonacci retracements. Leonardo Fibonacci was a renowned Italian mathematician from the early 13th century. His most famous contribution to world knowledge was his Fibonacci series, which he figured out while pondering the dynamics of rabbit breeding of all things! A Fibonacci series runs 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, etc, where each new number in this sequence is derived by adding the two numbers before it. The ratio between these numbers is 0.618.

If you divide 21 by 34, for example, you get 0.618. This 0.618 number is also familiar from the 1.618 Golden Ratio, which has been used for millennia by both nature and elite artists to make shapes very aesthetically pleasing to the human eye. Proportions in the golden ratio are found all over the biological, as well as classical, worlds. This Fibonacci number is very important in nature and art, and in the financial markets.

If you divide a number in the Fibonacci series by the sum of itself and the next number, such as 21 by 21+34, you get 0.382, which is also 1 minus 0.618. After endless studies of the markets many traders believe that financial markets tend to have an affinity for 38.2% and 61.8% retracements and movements. These numbers definitely exist more often in the markets than they should by random chance, so there may be some subtle psychological considerations that lead traders to make decisions that yield Fibonacci numbers in price charts.

It is really fascinating that both of the post-massive-upleg HUI corrections before this latest ended at nearly identical Fibonacci levels of 38.2 on an indexed scale! In light of this strong precedent, we at least ought to acknowledge the possibility that the HUI will retrace 61.8% of its latest massive upleg and its correction will end near 38.2 indexed. So where is this in actual HUI terms today? 255ish!

As you may recall from above, HUI 255 is also where a 35% correction in the index would carry us, and the 35% is the average decline of corrections 2 and 4 after massive uplegs 2 and 4. While the HUI certainly does not have to follow precedent and anything could happen, I would not bet against seeing these numbers again sooner or later. The degree of symmetry inherent in the rhythms of secular bulls is quite remarkable and it seems to hold together much more often than it fails.

In light of these observations, I drew a probable consolidation range in this chart. Since the HUI fell so hard so fast this time around, thankfully the vast majority of its correction in percentage terms is probably behind us. Yet in the time-duration terms crucial to rebalance sentiment, it remains very young. I suspect the odds favor it meandering generally sideways to lower in a consolidation in the coming months. Upside potential is low but downside risk isn't extreme either since multiple technical approaches point to a 255ish probable bottom.

When this bottom arrives, extraordinary buying opportunities will exist in the world's best unhedged gold stocks. We have been diligently preparing for this all year at Zeal. We recently published a report (http://www.zealllc.com/reports.htm) detailing the fundamentals of our 20 favorite gold stocks today. We undertook extensive fundamental research to whittle down hundreds of gold stocks to our 20 favorites so we are good to go when the next great buying opportunity comes to pass.

When the technical probabilities for success again look very favorable, we will be launching a new gold stock and silver stock campaign in our newsletters (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm) in the months ahead. We hope to redeploy into the best stocks near the best technical times to add positions. Please subscribe today (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm) so you don't miss the enormous opportunities surrounding the coming sixth major interim low of this entire bull market!

The bottom line is the HUI is in a major correction today, which is totally normal, healthy, and expected (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/pmcorrect.htm) after the massive upleg we enjoyed over the past year. These corrections, over an entire bull market, tend to establish rhythms which can then be gamed by investors and speculators.

While no two corrections are identical, often their averages are similar so they can help us understand the probabilities governing their depth and duration. While these odds suggest that we aren't out of the woods yet this time around in duration terms, thankfully the worst is almost certainly behind us in depth terms.

Adam Hamilton, CPA

June 23, 2006

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton062406.html

mama mia

24.06.2006, 13:14

Silver Mines - Performance Report 01.01.2006 - today

...jeweils Datum eingeben ---> From* : To* :

* - (mm/dd/yyyy)

http://silverstrategies.com/PerformanceReport.aspx

mama mia

24.06.2006, 21:15

http://www.321gold.com/images/321goldlogo2.gif (http://www.321gold.com/) http://www.321gold.com/ads/new/cardero.gif (http://www.321gold.com/banner_redirect.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cardero.com%2F&id=3)
http://www.321gold.com/images/please_visit.gif http://www.321gold.com/images/home.gif (http://www.321gold.com/) http://www.321gold.com/images/links.gif (http://www.321gold.com/links.html) http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Honest Money Gold & Silver Report
Market Intervention
Laying Off Risk - Derivatives Of Hell

Douglas V. Gnazzo
Jun 26, 2006

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/logo.gif "A promise is a debt; it is nothing else; and the attempt to make debt serve
the purpose of money always has been and always will be a failure.
Money and debt are as opposite in nature as fire and water;
money extinguishes debt as water extinguishes fire." [1] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#1) Abstract

Market intervention is not new - it has been with us since ancient times that witnessed the birth of the first marketplace. Once men came together to trade - markets were born. It did not take long for those who always try to find a way around - to find a way around.

With the advent of indirect exchange - gold and silver coin circulated as money. Soon Kings and Queens became greedy, ordering the masters of the mint to debase the coin of the realm, in both regards to weight and purity.

Market intervention blossomed alongside of man's greed - as that is all it is - a means to an end: the desire for more by the appearance of less. Man has yet to learn the lesson that to try to obtain more for less goes against natural law. The greater the effort - the greater is the reward. The less the effort - the less is the reward.

Historical Record

Throughout history, there have been numerous attempts to intervene and control various markets. From taking a small piece of the action - to going for the big score - to settling back and collecting a steady piece of the pie on every transaction.

"An important factor in the commerce of Athens is the money-changer. There is no one fixed standard, which has very wide acceptance, but Corinth has another standard, and a great deal of business is also transacted in Persian gold darics.

The result is that at the Peireus and near the Agora are a number of little "tables" where alert individuals, with strong boxes beside them, are ready to sell foreign coins to would-be travelers, or exchange darics for Attic drachma, against a favorable commission." [2] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#2)

The moneychangers - busy plying their trade that transfers this to that - with some left over for their part. Such was the beginning of banking in Athens - based upon the exchange of different monies. From such a meager beginning came forth masters of credit and capital. The House of Pasion and The House of Nicanor were among the first.

"A Large Banking Establishment. Enter now the "tables" of Nicanor. The owner is a metic; perhaps he claims to come from Rhodes, but the shrewd cast of his eyes and the dark hue of his skin gives a suggestion of the Syrian about him. In his open office a dozen young half-naked clerks are seated on low chairs--each with his tablet spread out upon his knees laboriously computing long sums. The proprietor himself acts as the cashier. He has not neglected the exchange of foreign moneys; but that is a mere incidental.

His first visitor this morning presents a kind of letter of credit from a correspondent in Syracuse calling for one hundred drachmas. "Your voucher?" asks Nicanor. The stranger produces the half of a coin broken in two across the middle. The proprietor draws a similar half coin from a chest. The parts match exactly, and the money is paid on the spot.

The next comer is an old acquaintance, a man of wealth and reputation; he is followed by two slaves bearing a heavy talent of coined silver, which he wishes the banker to place for him on an advantageous loan, against a due commission.

The third visitor is a well-born but fast and idle young man who is squandering his patrimony on flute girls and chariot horses. He wishes an advance of ten mine, and it is given him--against the mortgage of a house, at the ruinous interest of 36 per cent, for such prodigals are perfectly fair play.

Another visitor is a careful and competent ship merchant who is fitting for a voyage to Crete, and who requires a loan to buy his return cargo. Ordinary interest, well secured, is 18 per cent, but a sea voyage, even at the calmest season, is counted extra hazardous. The skipper must pay 24 per cent at least.

A poor tradesman also appears to raise a trifle by pawning two silver cups; and an unlucky farmer, who cannot meet his loan, persuades the banker to extend the time "just until the next moon" of course at an unmerciful compounding of interest." [3] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#3)

Disadvantage

Such have been the ways of the moneychangers, since the dawn of man - taking advantage of the disadvantage of others. Some call it business, some call it trade; some call it usury, and some call it intervention - of the natural inalienable rights of man.

It has been with us, as long as we - have been with it. There is always a choice. Perhaps it is better "to never a borrower nor a lender be", as one never knows when the tables will turn - but turn they must:

"Many a table has been closed very suddenly, when its owner absconded, or collapsed in bankruptcy, and the unlucky depositors and creditors have been left penniless, during the rearrangement of the tables, as the euphemism goes." [4] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#4)

History is replete with examples of the intervention by man to manipulate the markets to make a killing: The Tulip Mania in Holland in the 1600's, the British South Sea Bubble in the 1700's.

Then there is John Law's infamous Banque Générale and the Mississippi Company, which he used to issue stock in the Compagnie d'Occident, which he then used as the cause to change the Banque Générale[/url] into the Banque Royale, which meant that the King of France guaranteed the notes of the Bank. Smart guy - would a made a great bookie or central banker.

Eventually Law had one company swallow up another until he ended up with the Compagnie Perpetuelle des Indes in 1719. In 1720 Law was appointed Controller General of Finance.

One year later in 1721 the value of the stock of the Compagnie Perpetuelle des Indes had lost 97% of its value - causing an economic crisis in France and in Europe in general. So much for intervening and manipulating the market. Law was demoted from his Controller General title and position. John boy was actually lucky to make it out of France alive.

We have written previously on the early American episodes attempting to manipulate finance, see Gold Wars: Intervention and Manipulation (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#8).

More Recent History

More recently, we have the London Gold Pool and the reputed present day manipulation of the gold market by the Federal Reserve in collusion with other central banks, as well as the Bank for International Settlements, The International Monetary Fund, The World Bank, The United Nations, and the World Trade Organization to name a few of the New World Order Gang. We have written on this previously in Gold Wars: Gibson's Paradox & the Gold Standard (http://honestmoneyreport.com/archives/2006/0317.php).

We must not forget Mr. Soros - and his generosity for his fellow man when he provided help to re-adjust the British Pound to its proper value according to his determinations. A kinder, gentler and nobler gentleman would be most difficult to emulate.

Exchange Stabilization Fund

In Gold Wars: Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard we read J. Virgil Mattingly's 1995 statement to the FOMC:

"It's pretty clear that these ESF (exchange stabilizing fund) operations are authorized. I don't think there is a legal problem in terms of the authority. The statute [31 U.S.C. s. 5302] is very broadly worded in terms of words like 'credit' -- it has covered things like the gold swaps -- and it confers broad authority."

US TREASURY EXCHANGE STABILIZATION FUND

Introduction

"The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) consists of three types of assets: U.S. dollars, foreign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR's) Currently, the ESF has approximately $38 billion in these three assets.

The ESF can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies, to hold U.S. foreign exchange and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) assets, and to provide financing to foreign governments. All operations of the ESF require the explicit authorization of the Secretary of the Treasury (the Secretary).

The Secretary is responsible for the formulation and implementation of U.S. international monetary and financial policy, including exchange market intervention policy. The ESF helps the Secretary to carry out these responsibilities. By law, the Secretary has considerable discretion in the use of ESF resources.

The legal basis of the ESF is the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. As amended in the late 1970s, the Act provides in part that "the Department of the Treasury has a stabilization fund Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on orderly exchange arrangements and an orderly system of exchange rates, the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities." [5] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#5)

A Pattern of Behavior

It is quite apparent that man has always tried to intervene in the markets, to direct and to manipulate in search of profit - the ever-fleeting temptress who teases with her daunting reflection - to both excite and to extinguish - at the same time.

And now we have the wizards and magicians of finance who conjure up the strangest of brews: derivative debt instruments that bet upon they know not what - as long as chance is offered - for the sake of chance and nothing more.

It is in the chase the perceived value lies - never satiated - never fulfilled. A sentence more terrible then even Sisyphus knows.

The greatest magicians have tried and tried - and yet failed to control the markets. They have indeed accumulated great wealth, however, their insatiable greed has been and will be their demise - the never ending pursuit to obtain more, which puts at risk that which they have already obtained.

The Land of Make Believe Wealth

Nothing exemplifies this better than the Bank for International Settlements most recent publication of the values of existing derivative contracts. Presently the total stands at $284 TRILLION as denominated in U.S. Dollars or Federal Reserve Notes.

Outstanding Over-The-Counter Derivatives
(In billions of US dollars) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606/table_19_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606/table_19.gif) If that is not enough to make your stomach queasy, there is the following that should do the trick. Pay close attention to not only the notional dollar amounts, but also the time in which they occurred: the first quarter or 3 months of 2006.

That means the yearly totals, if they continue at the same pace - would be4 times the total numbers indicated. That is a significant amount of money - even for paper fiat debt-money.

"The pace of trading on the international derivatives exchanges quickened in the first quarter of 2006. Combined turnover measured in notional amounts of interest rate, equity index and currency contracts increased by one quarter to $429 trillion between January and March 2006 (Graph 4.1) The year-on-year rate of growth rose to 28%, after 23% in the previous quarter, which indicates that the expansion in activity went considerably beyond the seasonal acceleration usually recorded in the first quarter."

"The increase in turnover was particularly strong in interest rate products (26%), as changing perceptions about the future course of monetary policy in the United States and Japan lifted activity in money market contracts in the dollar and yen."

Graph 4.1 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606/turnover.gif ... "Uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate setting contributed to a 38% surge in trading in derivatives on short-term US interest rates. Turnover in futures and options on 30-day federal funds, which permit a more precise positioning on the timing of Fed decisions than the more heavily traded three-month eurodollar contracts, doubled to $36 trillion in the first quarter. Open interest in these contracts rose from $7 trillion at the end of 2005 to almost $12 trillion three months later. By contrast, trading volumes and open interest in derivatives on three-month eurodollar deposits went up by only one third to $166 trillion and $35 trillion respectively.

"The end of the policy of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the prospect of the first rise in interest rates since 2001 led to a sharp increase in activity in money market contracts denominated in yen in February and March." [6] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#6)

Keeping It In Perspective

Kind of brings a new perspective to the word perspective, which if it sounds a bid odd - it should. As the saying goes: "those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad."

Comic books do not have stuff as bizarre as this in them. Truth is indeed stranger than fiction, especially in the 21 st Century New World Order. I mean just how much is $429 trillion dollars - are there that many grains of sand passing through the hour glass?

The inordinate amount of such sums indicates how valueless a dollar has become.

It is a tragedy unparalleled in history that will ultimately cause more suffering than any single war has. Its vibration will resonate across the ethers - requiring a balancing of huge proportions.

Obviously from all of the above there can be no doubt that intervention within the markets has and does take place - and to obscene degrees. Dante may have to come up with another circle to house the usurpers of such perverted extremes. Man doth know no bounds - yet.

What Remedy

The question before us is - what do we do with the information? Knowledge is power - IF it is used to accomplish something positive, otherwise it is worth nothing. It is not in the knowing - it is in the doing.

So we must do something - take action of some kind. The choices are several. First, there is the spreading of the information so that others become aware: the spreading of the word.

Next, there is the use of the information to try to implement change, which is a monumental task - which is ever more reason to take it on. It is all grist for the mill. There is nothing that cannot be accomplished - nothing. Whatever thought gives rise to - can be accomplish and acted upon, as all is but a thought made manifest.

Third, the knowledge should play a part in all investor's investment decisions. Presently most investors use technical analysis and or fundamental analysis. In today's New World Order, interventional analysis is mandatory.

When properly coupled with a contrarian understanding of how markets work, it provides a powerful tool along with technical and fundamental analysis. However, they all have their place; and they all have their limitations. To not underestimate or overestimate either - is pure folly.

Parameters

To be aware that large entities intervene within the markets and have a significant affect is one thing - to be able to make precise predictions on subsequent market action is another.

If these elite moneyed interests have the capabilities of the latest cutting edge technology (which they do), as well as pockets deeper then deep to pay for it all - they are without doubt a most formidable opponent.

This does not mean that they cannot be beat. It does, however, suggest that it may be best to let them beat themselves. The proverbial "give them a long enough rope with which to hang themselves" comes to mind.

Buyers and Sellers

We want to make note of what we consider an important most relevant to the issue at hand: for every buyer there is a seller - for every seller than is a buyer. This distinction carries much weight when extrapolated to the farthest reaches regarding the issue of manipulation and intervention.

Whenever a market manipulator intervenes within the market - they either buy or sell or both. It is even possible to have a net neutral position, although on the scale we are considering, such would be quite an accomplishment.

If they sell - someone must be on the other side of the trade. Likewise, if they buy, someone must be on the other side of the trade.

With futures and options and other derivatives of structured finance - the buying and selling on either side of the trade may not occur immediately, or simultaneously, nevertheless it must occur or the markets will seize up, which we hasten to add is always a distinct possibility.

Alf Field put it very nicely the other day in his article Gold Update VII:

"At the outset let me say that I believe that GATA has done a good job in fingering the points of manipulation in the gold market, although I prefer to use the word distortion. The main areas where interference with normal market patterns has taken place are:

Excessive short selling in futures markets either to extend a decline or prevent a rapid upward price thrust;
Selling of physical gold by Central Banks;
Leasing of physical gold to facilitate hedging or carry trade activities.
It should be noted in points 1 and 3 that for every downward price distortion caused by excessive short selling there should also be a countervailing upward price distortion when the trade is unwound. In the case of excessive selling of futures, these short positions will have to be closed eventually by corresponding subsequent purchases.

Hedging and carry trade activities are unwound by buying back what was sold or by delivering newly mined gold back to the Central Bank that supplied the leased gold, thus reducing physical sales to the market.

Selling of gold by Central Banks has had the purpose of limiting the gold price rise. A sharply rising gold price would attract attention to the rapidly declining purchasing power of the irredeemable currencies that all countries now issue.

This artificial lid on the gold price will in due course (already happening) attract the attention of countries accumulating large surpluses, mainly of US dollars, resulting in purchases of gold for reserve purposes.

In other words, all these distortions tend to be of relatively short term duration, and are followed by countervailing upward distortions. The underlying primary trend of the market will always flow through to be expressed in the major waves while the distortions will tend to be apparent in the minor waves." [7] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#7)

In other words, whatever extent the market is manipulated by or intervened within, over the intermediate term it tends to smooth itself out as water seeks its own level.

Point Of No Return

Granted, there can be some immediate distortions and imbalances, but over the long term, they will balance out - unless the market experiences a 10-sigma event greater than three standard deviations from existing computerized black box trading programs.

The mantra of the day would then be: Houston - we have a problem - copy. It would play out like a global game of dominos - a ring around the rosy of sorts, especially the part about "ashes, ashes, and they all fell down." This lovely nursery rhyme is about the plague.

Such an event comes closer to reality every day, as the mal-investments and stress in the system increases. Eventually the bifurcation point will be breached, and chaos theory will take over - with an example not soon to be forgotten - that markets are non-linear in form and function.

When faced with a herd of rogue elephants rushing at you it is best to get out the way. To try to take them on face to face is utter folly.

However, if one has planned their strategy out well in advance, and has just behind them a cliff or large pit unknown to the elephants - their wild charge will be their own undoing - they will destroy themselves. All you have to do is get out of the way and watch.

A wise saying in Judo is: let your opponent make the first move that starts his downfall. When facing the rogue interventionists in today's market - such wisdom is well advised.

Laws of the Market

Another point for consideration is to realize that although the opponent is strong and formidable - they do not, and cannot, completely control the markets.

They can and do direct them, and sometimes to large degrees - but no one or no one entity can completely control the market; for the market is the sum total of all players, and is consequently, larger than any individual player or group of players.

The market is a law unto itself and it will not be denied. The longer and harder that the primary trend of the market is manipulated by intervention, the larger and more powerful will the adjustment be when the market returns to its mean.

Just as a pendulum swings to and fro on either side of balance - the degree of opposition on either side are equal - forever seeking balance.

The best course of action is to take what the market offers. Do not fight the market. Accept whatever it offers. If one is aware that the trend is being manipulated in any one direction, let the rogues elephants run to they wear themselves out.

Then take the opposite position when the market has reached an extreme level. The risk to reward ratio will be quite favorable at such time. If one scales into their positions there is even less risk. In a bull market, one sells into strength and buys on weakness. In a bear market, one buys on strength and sells into weakness.

Buy or Sell

We have done exactly that in the recent top and retreat there from. When gold went over $700 I started selling as everybody was yelling. Once gold went down far enough and everybody was crying - I started buying.

So far - so good, as this is but a short-term play, unless it decides to run - and if it wants to, I will oblige and give it more slack. To have a contrarian point of view is mandatory in today's manipulated markets. Let them sell - then you buy. Let them buy - you sell to them.

Bond yields have been going up - not down. They have broken above significant resistance of a long-term nature. Perhaps it is a ploy - perhaps a misreading of the tea leaves. Time will tell.

In my opinion the opponent is strong - but he shows his weakness by relying on $284 TRILLION DOLLARS of make believe money-values in make believe derivatives - derived there from.

He adds to his weakness by employing them repeatedly, turning them over to the tune of $429 TRILLION every three months.

I was going to state the yearly total but my calculator does not go that high. I am not even sure what comes after a trillion - perhaps God only knows and he is not telling - yet. I am not sure I even want to know.

Weak Links

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link: 284 trillion are a lot of links. When one of them breaks it will be because the bifurcation point has been breached, and once that occurs, chaos theory takes over and there is no coming back - it's straight on till morning - just follow the fairy.

There is no stopping it - it is a run away vibration whose exponential amplitude must play itself out. Such events throughout history have taken down huge bridges and buildings by a single vibration run amuck.

So yes it is true that the opponent is strong, and yes he can conduct large and powerful operations to direct the markets - but outright control: no - it would run against not only natural law but cosmic law - against Destiny. Even the gods pay heed to Destiny - as they are Destiny's Child.

OCEANIDS: Who then is the steersman of Necessity?
Prometheus: The three-shaped MOERAE and mindful ERINYES.
OCEANIDS: Can it be that Zeus has less power than they do?
Prometheus: Yes, in that even he cannot escape what is foretold. [8] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html#8) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/logo.gif [1] Organization of Debt into Currency and Other Papers of Charles Holt Carroll
[2] Title: A Day In Old Athens Author: William Stearns Davis
[3] Same
[4] Same
[5] Exchange Stabilization Fund
[6] BIS Quarterly Review, June 2006 (http://www.bis.org/publ/quarterly.htm) 12 June 2006
[7] Elliott Wave Gold Update VII - Field (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061906.html)
[8] Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound 515

Jun 24, 2006
-Douglas V. Gnazzo
email: Douglas V, Gnazzo (douglas.gnazzo@honestmoneyreport.com)

[url]http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo062606.html

mama mia

24.06.2006, 21:28

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mama mia

26.06.2006, 12:28

Got Gold Report – Gold Defining New Support Level

By Gene Arensberg
25 Jun 2006 at 02:22 PM EDT

HOUSTON (ResourceInvestor.com (http://www.resorceinvestor.com/)) -- After a world-wide contraction in equities and commodities gold managed to grab a tree root after falling over Capitulation Cliff, as expected. The metal may still have some support-defining work to do, but there is evidence that strongly increasing support lies not far below. Got gold?

Leading off this week’s offering is commentary about conspiracy theorists during this gold correction and one possible motivation for the recent large global contraction across multiple markets.

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Sinister Cartel or Something Else?

Large corrections in gold and silver (never mind the big wallops to virtually every global market out there over the past six weeks) have predictably kept the “all-conspiracy-all-the-time-brigade” busy over the last few weeks. The harsh selloffs lead conspiracy mavens to once again say that the extreme price movements and positioning in the futures markets were “proof” that sinister members of a presumably evil cartel or cabal had banded together again to artificially drive prices lower, and so on.

Question: Why is it so easy to believe that menacing forces conspired to manipulate the markets and so hard (for some) to believe that instead we have just witnessed yet another mass exodus of leveraged speculative hot money?

Borrowing H. Ross Perot’s voice for a moment, ‘That giant sucking sound you just heard was the sound of a liquidity vacuum!’ It is the sound of big commodity hedge funds and aggressive high-risk momentum-chasing fund managers (and lots of smaller clones) all trying to get out of heavily leveraged speculative positions at the same time causing short-term panic and mayhem. These are the very same players who kept pouring in liquidity and sending the markets for gold, silver, zinc, copper – you name it – into unsustainable parabolic rocket launches.

It took massive inflows of capital to push commodity prices so much higher so fast. As nearly always during parabolic ascents, there came a point at which, for this particular time, this particular number of potential players and the available pool of liquidity from those players, that the amount of capital available ran out. When virtually everyone who can be is already long, who is left to buy?

All these jacked-up-on-liquidity markets, including gold, were collectively waiting for a trigger to get sold off, just as this report suspected when it turned cautiously bearish (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19498) one week before the plunge for gold began and the very week that mining stocks started selling off. At the time of that May 7 report a veritable pandemic of euphoria disease was raging, but as reported here there were underlying signals that money flow was even then turning negative.

Euphoria Disease? Take Two Fed Chairmen and Call Me in the Morning.

It probably doesn’t matter what the actual trigger was that turned the tide. It never is just one trigger anyway. However, it is interesting to contemplate one potential contributor because it undoubtedly led to negative liquidity in multiple markets at the same time. That factor was the retirement of former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan and uncertainty about, and mixed signals coming from new chairman Ben Bernanke.

Leaving the argument about hawkish policy comments and their effects on interest rates to other commentators, isn’t it uncertainty about inflation and the Fed’s historic proclivity to overshoot the mark in answer to it that keeps investors and portfolio managers up late at night? Having a new top dog, one that has arguably not yet mastered the “Fed-speak” of his predecessor and one that has not yet been tested in battle, so to speak, is probably good for sales of Maalox. Probably not so good for investor confidence short term.

Turning on the metaphor mixer, this report believes that one contributor to the multiple market swoons is fear, born of uncertainty, that the largest central bank battleship might be in the process of locking up the brakes on what has been a liquidity saturated booming economy with a new and untested skipper at the helm.

However, unless there is direct data to feed that fear right quick, it will starve to death. With unemployment at historically low levels (less than 5%), personal incomes still rising at near boom rates (over 8% y-o-y so far) and corporate buying (of their own shares and other companies) as strong as an acre of garlic, fear food may be hard to come by for a while. (Fear talk is still plentiful though. It’s an election year.)

It’s pretty obvious that the current tight yield curve has more to do with buckets of that sloshing liquidity finding a temporary home in interest-bearing paper waiting for the contraction temblor to subside. (That and the ongoing vacation season of course).

No Conspiracy Needed

Tying these two seemingly disparate thoughts together, it isn’t just gold and silver that have seen big selloffs during this period. Virtually all foreign stock markets were sold off big, some as high as 50% in the Middle East, and virtually all metal commodities are well off their euphoric peaks. It is nothing less (or more) than a huge world-wide liquidity contraction, kind of like an awakening volcano venting off steam.

A large percentage of global wealth moved out of what are perceived in today’s world as higher risk investments into lower risk investments and cash equivalents at the same time.

As said, the trigger isn’t really important in this particular case. The gold market got ahead of itself and had to vent. Maybe on the way down bearish interests got a small taste of their own version of euphoria disease, even piling on a couple weeks ago, but as for a conspiracy to drive down prices? With over-funded, over-leveraged quick-on-the-trigger hedge funds rushing for the exits all at once and fear-stricken panic sellers following suit, who needs a conspiracy?

Got Gold Report Axiom: Short sellers in the futures markets can no more hold down the market than longs can hold it up. Over time the global market will find supply/demand/liquidity equilibrium no matter what either side wants, period.

That works both ways of course. By last week’s offering (the June 17 Got Gold Report (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=20777)) it looked like the sell-down panic was already just about spent and this report turned cautiously bullish. So far so good, but vigilance is important going forward.

With that, let’s take a look at some of this week’s indicators.

Dollar/Gold Relationship. During the correction for gold we often heard that downside movement was largely attributable to dollar strength. The fact is that the dollar hasn’t really strengthened all that much (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19281815370&a=34965646) and although dollar strength does play into it some, gold metal divorced itself from the currencies convincingly in 2005, globally.

More likely, just as with any security or commodity that is correcting under pressure, just about any trigger gets noticed or blamed. Fact is that for six weeks prior to the peak for gold metal the purchasing power relationship between gold and the buck rose at an unsustainable, near-vertical parabolic pace. That spike up has been completely corrected now (see graph (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$USD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89899984167&a=54951926)) in about the same timeframe more or less. One interesting idea to watch on that Gold/U.S. dollar ratio graph is the possibility that a new higher channel may be attempting to form above the previous uptrend, Friday’s action notwithstanding.

For confirmation that dollar movement is much less a factor we can look at the purchasing power of gold relative to other paper currencies. We see pretty much the same signature whether we are looking at the dollar, the euro (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$XEU&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25023111983&a=62332727) or the yen (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$XJY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52339804716&a=79273210). Even more interesting is to compare them all versus gold on the same chart: Relative performance, gold, USD, XEU, JPY continuous graph (http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$GOLD,$USD,$XEU,$xjy).

Looking at those charts it is pretty obvious that the recent correction for gold had much less to do with dollar strength than with a hot-money liquidity exodus. In other words large speculative commodity hedge funds rushed for the exits (to the relief of gold bears) in whatever paper currency one follows. The correction for gold was not, repeat not, exclusively an anti-U.S. dollar movement event.

From the remember-this-in-the-future department, this report believes that as opposed to this particular rush to “safety,” there will come a time when liquidity flight from the markets will see a much larger percentage of wealth seeking safety not in dollars, not in treasuries … not in paper, but in gold metal.

Sure, that day is probably still some time in the future, but can anyone say how far? Just one more reason to have some of the globally accepted standard of wealth for the last four millennia stashed away in the “untouchable” pile.

COT Changes. Tuesday 6/20 commitments of traders report (COT). Large Commercials (LCs) combined net short positions (LCNS) decreased by 12,130 lots to 122,271 contracts net short (as expected). Gold Tuesday to Tuesday gained a modest $8.35 or 1.5% to $574.20. Since Tuesday gold added $9.55 for a last trade of $583.75 on the cash market.

Tuesday’s 122,271 LCNS is the lowest large commercial net short position since August 2, 2005 (http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png) (99,807).

Total COMEX gold open interest edged lower 833 lots to 288,148 open contracts.

Long-term, June ‘07 and beyond COMEX forwards picked up 1,468 lots to 42,649 or 14.8% of open contracts, a bit of a red flag ordinarily.

Normally a decrease in LCNS into a rise for gold is short-term bullish. However, an expected increase in total open interest failed to materialize, so the action is suspect very short term.

LCNS-Gold Graph as of Tuesday:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/cot%201.png

Gold ETF. For the week gold holdings at streetTRACKS Gold Shares, the largest gold exchange traded fund [NYSE:GLD (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gld)], increased by a humble 4.02 tonnes to 365.73 tonnes, good enough for another record for gold metal ever held by an ETF.

Incidentally, on June 22 Barclay’s iShares Silver Trust [AMEX:SLV (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=slv)] also set a new record for silver holdings having added 46.7 tonnes on Monday and 77.6 tonnes on Thursday to total 2,300.4 tonnes (73,961,281 ounces) of silver bars held by a custodian in London for investors in the trust. That new record lasted exactly one day because on Friday, 6/23 (released Saturday morning), SLV reported adding an impressive 139.9 tonnes of new silver bars (http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jhtml;jsessionid=5OAZ5HH4VHSTMRJUGQOBBGSFGRSEWD50?symbol=SLV&_requestid=154862) to total 2,440.3 tonnes (78,457,554 ounces) worth about $791.4 million. A June 18 article on RI noted a return to positive money flow (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=20787) for the silver ETF.

Last week’s gold ETF section said: “Expected bullish dip buying does reflect a net increase in money flow into the gold ETFs, but at somewhat less robust a pace than expected by this report thus far. Shell shocked traders and investors are likely waiting for some form of confirmation before committing substantially larger resources to the ETFs and physical gold.”

This week’s gold addition to GLD was along the same lines as last week. It is good to see the positive money flow into the gold fund. At the least it suggests continued bullish dip buying, but the pace is still less than robust in this report’s opinion. While the pace of positive money flow has definitely picked up for silver, for gold apparently larger funds are content to wait either for confirmation of a new up leg getting underway or to wait for further dips to commit more serious resources.

Last week as gold approached $550 and even dipped below it a pretty strong surge in physical buying erupted. By most accounts physical buying for gold was less energetic as of this week.

Financial data for GLD updated daily at streetTRACKS Gold Trust (http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/us/value/gb_value_usa.php).

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/co2%202.png

As if there are not enough charts to look at already, take a look at this graphic display showing how short a time period there was actual negative money flow for GLD. Basically it was only negative for about 13 trading days right at the peak for gold metal. Interesting, isn’t it?

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/GoldSilver/cot%203.png

Gold Charts. A flag-ish looking bounce shows on the daily chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87752041719&a=74692729), following a textbook 200-day moving average recoil. This week’s focus is on the apparent zone of strongly increasing support residing in the vicinity of the 200-day. In other words just underneath.

Please see similar commentary on the 2-year weekly version (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29250745269&a=59967262).

U.S. Dollar. The large commercials collectively reduced their net long position on the dollar index by 863 contracts to 9,454 contracts net long as of Tuesday. This, while the dollar index edged lower 26 basis points to 86.20 Tuesday to Tuesday. Since Tuesday the USD index gained 67 ticks to close Friday at 86.87 on a Friday hop.

It is interesting that the LC net long position remained quite large given the huge plunge in total open interest (http://tfc-charts.com/cotcharts/DX) on NYBOT bourse for the dollar index.

Please see additional brief comments on both the 1-year daily USD chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19281815370&a=34965646) and the 2-year weekly USD (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94987395291&a=74691808) version.

Gold Indexes. As expected, the 6-month daily HUI chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25832596778&a=66963744) reflects upside follow through after last week’s snap backer.

HUI:Gold Ratio. Mining shares are either leading gold or else they have gotten a little ahead of the metal because they outperformed for the second consecutive week as seen in the one-year daily HUI/Gold ratio chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35894892510&a=65702648). Readers will have to click on the 2-year weekly HUI/Gold (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18594636053&a=76255199) version to see an interesting and unusual development underway for the popular ratio.

Spot Gold-HUI. The spot gold minus HUI indicator tightened another 14.05 points to 272.07, confirming that mining shares were in outperform mode for the week. It is pretty amazing that only a little over a month ago on May 12 the indicator was “sounding a klaxon with flashing lights” at a bull-to-date record mining-shares disconnected 346.90! (As reported here).

Commentary and Short-Term Outlook: (Continued cautiously bullish for gold and mining shares. Add into significant dips.)

Had there been more of a pick up in the pace of physical buying and gold additions to the gold ETFs (similar to silver and SLV) together with at least a modest increase in the COMEX gold open interest, all else being equal this report would have turned fully bullish. However, absent those markers there is at least the chance, if not the probability, that a re-test of the recent lows is possible.

Obviously if there is a sudden surge in physical buying and gold additions to the ETFs that possibility would lessen.

Repeating a portion of last week’s outlook (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=20777): “While the panic-driven very-high percentage plunges may have come to an abrupt end, further weakness remains possible. Those on the short side probably still smell blood in the water and gold may have to take another shot at the lows, perhaps even over-shooting them before finding sustained support.

Having said that, it is this report’s conviction that the lows established on Wednesday (June 14, $542.27) are very likely within 10% of a new turning low, if sustained support was not put in then. Also, gold is very likely within 10% of the low for the year.

If not right now and at this level, then soon there will be few sellers willing to part with gold. If not now, then soon value-hungry bargain hunters will overpower the fear-based selling pressure, reversing the harsh downward momentum.”

Following this week’s fledgling bounce significant dips for gold metal should be bought aggressively in this report’s opinion.

Strongly increasing support is evident not far below. The number of potential buyers probably increases in a big way as gold approaches the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level (see 2-year, weekly gold chart).

Careful stop management remains a must for all short-term gold and mining share traders.

With that said, as always, MIND YOUR STOPS.

Long-Term Outlook: No change.A secular bullish perfect storm trend for precious metals continues. Rapidly escalating global investor demand, easier participation by investors via ETFs, conversion of Middle East petroleum dollars to gold, rising new demand from Asia, possible central bank buying partially offsetting central bank selling, conversion from dollars to gold by large U.S. dollar denominated foreign exchange reserves, declining gold production, increased political and NGO interference to bring new sources on line, rapidly escalating costs to produce, delays and shortages of equipment and manpower, previous two-decade bear-market-induced shortage of intellectual capital for miners, safe-haven buying to hedge strong, reckless, competitive dilution of under-backed fiat paper currencies and continued troubling global political and religious tensions are just some of the factors contributing to the bullish winds now blowing. In real terms gold remains undervalued versus nearly all other commodities and strongly undervalued as measured by the world’s fiat paper promises. … The Great Gold Bull has a long way to go. It just won’t go straight up.

http://www.goldcolony.com/viewarticle2.asp?articleid=4512

mama mia

26.06.2006, 22:40

Posted On: Monday, June 26, 2006

Schultz Gold Index

Author: Jim Sinclair

mama mia

27.06.2006, 11:39

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Erwartete Edelmetall-Korrekturen

Veröffentlich am 27.06.2006 09:16 Uhr von Adam Hamilton (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=116)

Vergangenen Dienstag verstummte der gesamte Edelmetall-Sektor, als innerhalb eines einzigen Handelstages Gold um 7,3% fiel und Silber sogar um 10,8% einbrach. Gold verzeichnete an diesem schwarzen Tag also 44,10 $ an Kursverlusten, Silber 1,19 $. Dies führte natürlich zu viel Jammern und Zähneknirschen unter Edelmetall-Investoren.

Was mich aber an dieser ganzen faszinierenden, wenn auch brutalen Episode überraschte war die Tatsche, dass es anscheinend viele Händler überraschte! Das ist interessant, weil die Korrekturen in Gold und Silber erwartet und auch ausgiebig diskutiert wurden bevor sie schließlich furchterregend eintrafen. Beobachter der Märkte waren darauf vorbereitet und erwarteten starke Rückgänge bei den Edelmetallkursen. Unsere Kunden von Zeal waren auf dieses Ereignis gut vorbereitet.

Warum ich dachte dass diese Korrekturen kommen würden? Spekulationen in den Finanzmärkten sind das großartigste Spiel der Welt. Wie die meisten anderen Spiele werden sie durch Wahrscheinlichkeiten gesteuert und durch die Spieltheorie stark beeinflusst. Edelmetalle sind ein kleines Spiel innerhalb des riesigen Spiels der Märkte und sie müssen auch als solches gesehen werden, wenn jemand erfolgreich darin handeln will.

Wie in jedem anderen Spiel mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten, beobachten auch hier schlaue Spekulanten die Märkte, um ihre Gewinnchancen entsprechend zu erhöhen. Wenn sie die Märkte besser zu verstehen lernen, ist es viel wahrscheinlicher, dass sie zum richtigen Zeitpunkt handeln, als wenn sich jemand nicht mit den Märkten auseinandersetzt. Ein guter Spekulant handelt nur dann, wenn er seine Erfolgschancen als besonders hoch einschätzt.

Diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten hängen teilweise mit der Spieltheorie zusammen. Spieltheorie ist ein Bereich psychologischer Forschungen, der in Betracht zieht, was die anderen Spielteilnehmer in einer gegebenen Situation wahrscheinlich als nächstes machen werden. Die Kauf- und Verkaufsentscheidungen eines Spekulanten (oder Investors) müssen vor dem Hintergrund dessen betrachtet werden, was die anderen Marktteilnehmer wahrscheinlich machen werden. Spieltheorie ist eines der Grundkonzepte konträrer Anleger und letztendlich die erfolgreichste Handelsstrategie. Kaufen wenn andere verkaufen und verkaufen wenn andere kaufen.

Die Kombination dieser grundlegenden Marktstudien führte zu einem sehr ominösen Bild von Gold und Silber im April und Anfang Mai. Beobachter der Märkte wissen ganz genau, dass die Kurse in allen Märkten steigen und fallen, auch innerhalb mächtiger, von starken Grundsätzen gesteuerter, säkularer Trends. Gold und Silber waren beide für den größten Teil des letzten Jahres gestiegen, und eine ihrer periodischen Korrekturen war sicherlich überfällig.

Sowohl Gold als auch Silber hatten weiters ihre extremsten technischen Niveaus in einem Vierteljahrhundert erreicht, ein Warnsignal dafür, dass zwischenzeitlich ein starker Rückschlag zu erwarten war, um diese Extreme wieder auszugleichen. Anfang Mai sprach nichts mehr dafür, Longpositionen zu halten. Vom Standpunkt der Spieltheorie gesehen lief die Euphorie ungezügelt weiter. Die meisten Anleger waren in der Nähe der letzten Zwischenhochs von weiteren Kursanstiegen überzeugt. Dies ist typisch für die Mehrheit der Anleger und daher blieben nur wenige kurzfristige Käufer übrig.

Die Wahrscheinlichkeiten, basierend auf der historischen Entwicklung von Gold und Silber und den psychologischen Betrachtungen der Spieltheorie, signalisierten bereits vor sechs Wochen, dass eine größere Korrektur bei Edelmetallen so gut wie sicher bevorstand. Um hier einen Spruch Salomons umzuformulieren könnte man sagen, der schlaue sah die kurzfristige Gefahr bei Metallen und flüchtete, aber der Einfältige kaufte einfach weiter und litt dafür. Märkte nehmen keine Gefangenen.

Nun werden Sie sich wahrscheinlich wundern, welchen Sinn es hat, sich nachträglich über diese Tatsachen Gedanken zu machen. Um ein erfolgreicherer Spekulant und Investor zu werden ist es entscheidend, aus Ereignissen in der Vergangenheit zu lernen. Wenn Sie eine solche Entwicklung nicht kommen sehen und ihr Portfolio nicht entsprechend anpassen, ist ein derartiges Ereignis ein starker Antrieb um die Märkte genauer zu beobachten, damit sie beim nächsten Mal nicht wieder überrascht werden.

Wenn Sie jemanden bezahlen, der Ihnen helfen soll, durch diesen mächtigen Rohstoff-Bullenmarkt zu navigieren, und er Sie nicht bereits im April oder Mai vor dieser Gefahr einer Korrektur von Gold, Silber und HUI gewarnt hat, dann sollten sie ihn feuern. Es gibt absolut keine Entschuldigung für einen Profi, die überdeutlichen Warnsignale vor diesem letzten Ausverkauf zu übersehen.

Wir von Zeal und unsere Kunden waren in diesen letzten faszinierenden Aufschwüngen von Gold, Silber und HUI schon früh in Longpositionen und wurden schon vor dem Beginn der Euphorie im April mit fantastischen realisierten Gewinnen belohnt. Nachdem wir unsere Stoppkurse erreicht oder unsere Edelmetallpositionen verkauft hatten, blieben wir in Cash, da eine ernsthafte Korrektur immer wahrscheinlicher wurde. Seitdem erhöhten wir unsere Bargeldpositionen um bei den kommenden Gelegenheiten des nächsten wichtigen Zwischentiefs günstig zu kaufen.

Wenn Sie von den Rückschlägen dieser Woche in Gold, Silber oder Edelmetallaktien betroffen waren, tut es mir Leid für Sie, denn das wäre nicht nötig gewesen. Diese Korrekturen waren voraussehbar und zu erwarten. Die beste Möglichkeit die ich fand, um dies zu veranschaulichen, waren einige Charts der letzen mächtigen Aufschwünge von Gold, Silber und HUI und ihrer jüngsten Korrekturen. Über diesen Charts stehen Zahlen, die sich auf Kommentare beziehen, die ich unseren Kunden zu bestimmten Zeitpunkten schrieb. Es war nicht nötig, dass im letzten Monat irgendjemand in Edelmetallen Geld verlieren musste.

All diese Zitate sind leicht zu verifizieren und die entsprechenden Links zu Online-Abhandlungen sind angegeben. Abonnenten von Zeal Intelligence können sich in den Chartbereich für Abonnenten auf unserer Website einloggen und die Zitate aus Zeal Intelligence Newsletters überprüfen. Abonnenten von Zeal Speculator können uns E-Mails senden, um jede gewünschte Kopie des Zeal Speculator zu erhalten, um die Originalberichte zu überprüfen.

Glauben Sie mir meine Freunde, diese Korrekturen bei Metallen waren zu erwarten! Jeder, der Sie vom Gegenteil zu überzeugen versucht, ist entweder naiv oder er vertuscht die Wahrheit.

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Letzten Sommer, am Anfang dieses Kursanstiegs bei Metallen, als die Marktstimmung zerstört war, erwarteten wir den Aufwärtstrend. Entsprechend unserer Erwartungen und Empfehlungen investierten wir auch unser Kapital und kauften Longpositionen in Edelmetallaktien und -Optionen.

1. Gold 427 $

"Entgegen der allgemeinen Überzeugung, hervorgerufen durch phänomenalen Pessimismus in Goldaktien, sieht Gold selbst heute technisch fantastisch aus. … Dies bildet eine starke Basis für einen neuen Kursanstieg von Gold, der mit dem Ende der Dollarabwertung beginnen sollte. Ein solches Ereignis könnten wir jederzeit erleben..." - Zeal Speculator, 11.5.2005

2. Gold 435 $
"Gold könnte sehr gut im Übergang in die zweite Phase sein, in der es in allen Währungen gleichzeitig steigen wird. … Diese zweite Phase zeigt auch einen wesentlich steileren Anstieg und größere Gewinne." - Zeal Intelligence 7/05

3. Gold 495 $
"Trotz dieses Gold-Bullenmarktes bleibt das Metall historisch gesehen immer noch wirklich billig. ... Die Nachfrage von Investoren wird die Kurse höher treiben und diese viel höheren Preise werden weltweit Legionen von Investoren anlocken." - ZI 12/05

4. Gold 517 $
"Auch wenn sein Aufschwung noch nicht vorbei zu sein scheint, wurde es kurzfristig überkauft und musste einmal durchatmen. Obwohl ich weiß, dass dieser Rückschlag viele Investoren abschreckte, verlief er jedoch technisch perfekt. Gold fiel zurück auf seine Widerstandslinie, die unter diesen Umständen schnell zur neuen Support-Linie werden wird. Gold zeigt lehrbuchmäßiges Bullenmarkt-Verhalten!" - ZI 1/06

Mit Anfang Februar war Gold technisch gesehen ziemlich überkauft und neue Longpositionen waren nicht länger ratsam. Wir erhöhten also unsere Stoppkurse für den Fall das Gold fallen würde, was schließlich auch passierte. Diese Strategie erlaubte uns aber auch, bis zum letztmöglichen Moment long zu bleiben, für den Fall das Gold genau hier ausbrechen und uns positiv überraschen würde.

5. Gold 571 $
"...Händler dürfen nicht vergessen, dass alle Bullenmärkte steigen und fallen. Taktisch gesehen ist es ziemlich offensichtlich, dass Gold, Silber und der HUI weit über ihren entsprechenden 200-Tages-Linien handeln. Gold stieg bisher so schnell, dass es das höchste Vielfache seiner 200-Tages-Linie in diesem gesamten Bullenmarkt erreichte. Obwohl ich nun monatelang argumentierte, dass die Kursanstiege in der zweiten Phase, in der sich Gold unabhängig vom Dollar bewegt, größer sein sollten als bisher, erscheint Gold technisch immer stärker überkauft. Für den Moment gehe ich in Gold neutral. … Neutral heißt nur, dass eine normale, gesunde Korrektur wahrscheinlich ist, so dass es im Moment nicht schlau wäre, neue Longpositionen einzugehen. Es ist aber auch nicht klug, hier short zu gehen, da Überraschungen in Bullenmärkten eher nach oben tendieren." - ZI 2/06

6. Gold 652 $
"Erinnern Sie sich, dass alle Bullenmärkte steigen und fallen, auch wenn die Grundsätze von Gold so gut aussehen wie eh und je und das weltweite Angebot der Minen trotz steigender Investmentnachfrage in Folge der Verarbeitung von zweitklassigen Erzen fällt. Früher oder später wird eine Korrektur von Gold unvermeidlich sein. Mit einem 200-Tages-Durchschnitt von momentan etwa 505 $, ist ein gewisser Ausverkauf sicherlich möglich." - ZI 5/06

Mit Anfang Mai, als Andere in ihrer Euphorie bereits alles ausverkauft hatten und Leute, die die Möglichkeit einer größeren Korrektur diskutierten, als Idioten bezeichneten, warnte ich unsere Kunden vor dieser extremen Euphorie und einer bevorstehenden Korrektur. So funktionierten die Märkte in der Vergangenheit und deshalb ist das die Position, die Beobachter der Märkte beziehen hätten sollen, da nichts mehr für Longpositionen in Edelmetallaktien sprach. Diese Warnung für unsere ZS-Kunden wurde weniger als 48 Stunden vor dem letzten Zwischen-Schlusshoch von Gold bei 720 $ veröffentlicht.

7. Gold 700 $
"Während meine Gold- und Silberbezogenen Investments steigen, glaubt der Spekulant in mir noch immer, dass Gold und Silber kürzlich zu schnell gestiegen sind und korrigieren müssen, um die Marktstimmung wieder auszugleichen. Diese Ansicht ist extrem unpopulär und wird mit jedem Tag, an dem Gold und Silber weiter steigen, noch unbeliebter. ... Wie alle anderen Bullenmärkte davor, werden auch diese steigen und fallen, regelmäßig in mächtigen Aufschwüngen steigen und dann wieder korrigieren, um die Marktstimmung auszugleichen wenn die Leute zu euphorisch werden. Eines der größten Paradoxons der Märkte ist, dass Euphorie immer dann am schwierigsten zu sehen ist, wenn sie direkt um uns ist." - ZS 9.5.2006

Nach dem ersten Einbruch von Gold würde man meinen, dass die besonders euphorischen Anleger ihre Lektion schnell gelernt hätten. Wie üblich war dem aber nicht so. Während andere behaupteten, die Korrektur von Gold müsste seit seinem Zwischentief beendet sein, warnte ich unsere Kunden von Zeal, dass sie ziemlich sicher noch nicht vorbei war. Ich sagte sogar, dass wahrscheinlich ein rapider Einbruch zu erwarten war. Diese wurde 9 Handelstage vor dem Kurssturz dieser Woche veröffentlicht, früh genug um sich darauf vorzubereiten.

8. Gold 651 $
"Jeder Bullenmarkt der Geschichte den ich jemals untersuchte, hatte eine starke Tendenz, zu seiner 200-Tages-Linie zurückzukehren bevor ein Zwischentief erreicht war. Daher denke ich, dass die 200-Tages-Linie von Gold das wahrscheinlichste Kursziel für diese Korrektur darstellt. Das ist jedoch noch ein weiter Weg von diesem Zeitpunkt, heute bei etwa 534 $. Es gibt zwei Möglichkeiten, wie Gold zu seiner 200-Tages-Linie zurückkehren kann. Entweder es fällt schnell oder es bewegt sich lange seitwärts und wartet, bis die 200-Tages-Linie aufholt. Diesmal wette ich auf Ersteres. ... Sobald eine scharfe Korrektur einmal beginnt, werden die Leute abgeschreckt und es geht weiter nach unten. In vielen Fällen führt diese Entwicklung sogar für ein oder zwei Monate zu Kursen unterhalb seiner 200-Tages-Linie. Ich vermute also, dass Gold diesmal höchstwahrscheinlich unter seine 200-Tages-Linie fällt, bevor diese Korrektur zu Ende ist." - ZI 6/06

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1. Silber 7,01 $
"Wenn Silber das Interesse der Spekulanten weckt, kann es in einem Moment nach oben schießen, und daher besteht kein Grund, sich über die Lustlosigkeit von Silber Sorgen zu machen." - ZI 7/05

Wir von Zeal sahen Ende letzten Sommer viel Potential in Silber als die Verzweiflung ausbrach. Der führende Artikel im ZI 9/05 trug den Titel "A Silver Lining", und seine Kernthese war, dass Silber sowohl grundsätzlich als auch technisch fantastisch aussah und steigen sollte, sobald die Spekulanten aus ihren Sommerferien zurückkommen würden. Einen Kursanstieg sollte man nicht dann erwarten, wenn jeder andere ihn erwartet, sowie im Mai 2006. Nur wenige aber erwarteten diesen Anstieg im August 2005.

2. Silber 6,78 $
"Kein anderer Rohstoff hat mehr Potential für legendäre Gewinne in diesem laufenden Rohstoff-Bullenmarkt als Silber. … Früher oder später wird Silber wieder entsprechend diesem Bullenmarkt und entsprechend seiner eigenen Grundsätze handeln, und Silberinvestoren sollten ein Vermögen verdienen." - ZI 9/05

3. Silber 8,27 $
"Trotz der starken Rallye von Gold und Silber im letzten Monat wirken beide technisch gesehen noch nicht riskan. ... Der Beginn der zweiten Phase könnte uns in ganz neue Dimensionen katapultieren." - ZI 12/05

4. Silber 9,08 $
"Fazit ist, dass Silber technisch gesehen fantastisch aussieht. Seine neuen Bullenmarkt-Hochs dieser Woche bestätigen, dass sein junger Bullenmarkt gesund und am Leben ist, trotz aller Neinsager des letzten Jahres. Während die Gewinne von Silber jene von Gold noch nicht übertroffen haben, ist dies in den kommenden Jahren ziemlich sicher zu erwarten und wird kluge Silberinvestoren mit hohen Gewinnen belohnen. ... Obwohl Silber zurzeit über seiner Widerstandslinie handelt, hat der heutige Aufschwung noch immer Potential nach oben, vor allem wenn auch der Aufschwung von Gold weiter anhält." - Taktische Silbertrends 4, Abhandlung vom 6.1.2006

Anfang Februar erschienen Silber und Gold technisch gesehen mehr und mehr überkauft, und ich ging neutral. Ich verkaufte keine Silberbezogenen Wertpapiere und empfahl auch keinen Verkauf, sondern erhöhte einfach die Stoppkurse, um mehr und mehr unserer Gewinne zu realisieren, falls der Markt tatsächlich einbrechen sollte. Es war riskant und nicht länger zu empfehlen, neue Longpositionen in diesem Bereich einzugehen. Jedoch war es sinnvoll, bestehende Investments und Spekulationen zu halten, um vom letzten Aufschwung zu profitieren.

5. Silber 9,83 $
"...Anleger dürfen nicht vergessen, dass alle Bullenmärkte steigen und fallen. Taktisch gesehen ist es ziemlich offensichtlich, dass Gold, Silber und der HUI weit über ihren entsprechenden 200-Tages-Linien handeln. … Ich gehe für den Moment neutral. Da Silber indirekt durch das Schicksal von Gold gesteuert wird, und der HUI direkt davon abhängt, werde ich auch hier neutral gehen. Neutral heißt nur, dass eine normale, gesunde Korrektur wahrscheinlich ist, so dass es im Moment nicht schlau wäre, neue Longpositionen einzugehen. Es ist aber auch nicht klug hier short zu gehen, da Überraschungen in Bullenmärkten eher nach oben tendieren." - ZI 2/06

Die darauf folgende Parabel von Silber war zwar sehr aufregend aber auch sehr gefährlich. Ich warnte unsere Kunden von Zeal immer wieder vor den immensen Risiken beim Kauf während einer solchen Parabel. Die Geschichte der Märkte zeigt uns klar, dass ein derartiger parabolischer Anstieg nur böse enden kann. Es machte mich nicht sehr beliebt, gegen diese Euphorie anzukämpfen, aber für mich war das in Ordnung, denn ich spiele das Spiel der Märkte um zu gewinnen, nicht um geliebt zu werden.

6. Silber 11,49 $
"Dann explodierte Silber derart schnell, wie es nur von Spekulanten getrieben werden kann. Obwohl ein derartiger Anstieg aufregend ist, verlangt er auch extreme Vorsicht. Silber handelte fast genauso weit über seiner 200-Tages-Linie wie damals im April 2004, bevor es in einem starken Crash einbrach. Wenn Sie gehebelte Longpositionen in Silber halten, vergessen Sie nicht, dass Silber schneller fällt als es steigt und solche Korrekturen passieren blitzschnell und praktisch ohne Vorwarnung. Obwohl ich noch immer vom langfristigen Bullenmarkt von Silber überzeugt bin, ist kurzfristig eine Korrektur höchstwahrscheinlich. Es macht keinen Sinn, neue Longpositionen einzugehen, wenn die Wahrscheinlichkeiten gegen uns sprechen. Früher oder später wird Silber seine 200-Tages-Linie unvermeidlich wieder erreichen, so wie es auch in der Vergangenheit ausnahmslos geschah, und wir werden günstige Kurse für neue Investitionen vorfinden. Konträre Anleger vermeiden es, während wilder Euphorien zu kaufen." - ZI 4/06

7. Silber 13,51 $
"Silber, wovor ich bereits letzten Monat gewarnt hatte, schoss in einem klassischen parabolischen Anstieg nach oben und dann folgte der Crash. Wenn solche Parabeln einmal einbrechen, ist es sehr wahrscheinlich, dass Sie in einer vollständigen Korrektur zusammenbrechen, die dann in der Nähe der 200-Tages-Linie endet. Jene von Silber ist weit unten in der Nähe von 8,75 $, also seien Sie hier bitte vorsichtig. Silber braucht außerdem eine gesunde Korrektur, um die Marktstimmung auszugleichen und die Basis für seinen nächsten mächtigen Aufschwung zu schaffen. Vor dem Crash war es in diesem Aufschwung um beeindruckende 118% gestiegen und handelte somit 70% über seiner 200-Tages-Linie. Solche Extreme sind längerfristig ganz einfach nicht beständig." - ZI 5/06

Entgegen den Wahrscheinlichkeiten stieg Silber weiter an. Aber die Geschichte zeigt, dass Käufe auf parabolischen Spitzen verrückt sind, und deshalb warnte ich unsere Kunden weiter vor der höchstwahrscheinlich bevorstehenden, großen Korrektur. Dies waren meine letzten Gedanken über Silber, weniger als 48 Stunden vor seinem letzten Zwischenhoch. Der schlechteste Zeitpunkt, um etwas zu kaufen, ist dann, wenn es am verlockendsten ist, und Silber lockte in der Nähe von 15 $. Wie die mythischen Sirenen verführte es aber neue Silberinvestoren in Longpositionen und damit in den Tod.

8. Silber 14,49 $
"Gold und Silber sind heute beide technisch gesehen derart überkauft, dass ein weiterer Kursanstieg äußerst unwahrscheinlich ist. Das ist heute wirklich mein Schlusswort für Gold und Silber. Ich liebe beide Metalle und ich bin fest von ihrem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend überzeugt. ... Aber als rationaler Spekulant, geleitet von Wahrscheinlichkeiten, kann ich nicht meine Handelsprinzipien verlassen und jetzt kaufen, wenn Gold und Silber derart weit ausgebrochen sind. ... Wenn ich selber nicht kaufen und mein Kapital riskant in Gold und Silber investieren kann, dann kann ich auch Ihnen nicht empfehlen, dieses große Risiko einzugehen." - ZS 9.5.06

Als interessante Anmerkung schrieb und veröffentlichte ein berühmter Silber-Kommentator am 19. Mai beim Schlusskurs von 12,42 $ eine Abhandlung, die folgende Zitate enthielt: "...Scharen von so genannten Analysten sagen eine Korrektur voraus oder versuchen die Kursbewegungen dieser Woche als eine Korrektur zu beschreiben." „Das Wort Korrektur ist das falsche Wort um einen kleinen Rückgang oder eine Pause im Goldkurs zu beschreiben." "Sie sollten nicht versuchen, kurzfristige Kursbewegungen vorherzusagen. Auf welchen Indikator können Sie sich verlassen, um kurzfristige Kursbewegungen vorherzusehen? Es gibt keinen."

Dieser Herr schrieb weiters: "Denken Sie nur an die Absurdität des Versuchs, von einer Kursspitze mitten in einem Bullenmarkt zu sprechen." "Und ich habe noch nie jemanden gesehen, der die Hochs und Tiefs dieses Bullenmarktes seit 1999 erfolgreich vorausgesagt hätte. Außerdem habe ich noch nie jemanden gesehen, der sowohl ein Hoch als auch ein Tief richtig voraussagen könnte, um einen Rückgang des Goldkurses erfolgreich zu handeln."

Ist irgendeine dieser Aussagen richtig? Nein. Wir von Zeal haben große Aufschwünge und Korrekturen von Gold und Silber seit Beginn dieses Bullenmarktes aktiv gehandelt. Ich verstehe, dass es unmöglich ist, die exakten Zwischenhochs und -Tiefs vorherzusagen, aber wir haben es versucht und haben erfolgreich etwa die mittleren 80% jedes größeren Aufschwungs und jeder größeren Korrektur seit 2000 gehandelt. Ich veröffentlichte am selben Tag eine Abhandlung wie die oben zitierte, um diese unberechtigten Argumente zurückzuweisen, dass Märkte und ihre Korrekturen nicht erfolgreich gehandelt werden könnten. Nichts ist weiter weg von der Wahrheit. Spekulation heißt, genau diese Dinge zu tun!

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/hamilton-2818_3.gif

Als Spekulant, der dieses Spiel liebt, nehme ich an den Gold- und Silber-Bullenmärkten am liebsten mit gehebelten Gold- und Silberaktien und mit Optionen auf die Aktien von Weltklasseproduzenten teil. Das ist genau das, worum es bei uns von Zeal auch geht, Gold- und Silberaktien früh in ihren Aufschwüngen zu kaufen, und sie dann bei ihren erhöhten Handelsstopps abzugeben wenn diese Aufschwünge ihre Spitzen erreichen. In dieser letzten, oben gezeigten Runde erzielten wir realisierte Gewinne von bis zu 116% in unseren empfohlenen Aktienpositionen und von bis zu 729% in Edelmetall-Optionen. Wir begannen Anfang letzten Sommer billig zu kaufen, als die meisten Anleger noch immer ziemlich abgeschreckt waren.

1. HUI 186
"Die Umkehrtrends der Währungen gehen mit einer bisher nur durchschnittlichen Korrektur des HUI ihrem Ende zu und Gold entwickelt sich trotz des Dollars nur bescheiden. Ich glaube daher, dass zurzeit die Wahrscheinlichkeiten seit einem Jahr am höchsten stehen, dass sich ein neuer Aufschwung in Edelmetallaktien zusammenbraut." - ZI 6/05

2. HUI 196
"Gold befindet sich nun seit Mai im Aufwärtstrend und ich erwarte aus all den Gründen, die hier so oft diskutiert wurden, noch immer einen größeren Aufschwung des HUI in den nächsten sechs Monaten." - ZS 20.7.2005

3. HUI 240
"Fazit ist, dass die technischen Trends des HUI trotz seiner starken Rallye seit Mai noch immer nach oben zeigen. Der Index ist angesichts der bisherigen Entwicklung im Bullenmarkt definitiv noch nicht überkauft, und tatsächlich wirkt er in einigen Punkten sogar noch günstig. Größere Aufschwünge im Bullenmarkt brauchen einige Zeit um sich zu entwickeln und unser aktuelles Beispiel sieht technisch immer noch jung aus." - Bullenartige, technische Trends des HUI, Abhandlung vom 16.9.2005

4. HUI 245
"Entscheidend ist, dass die technischen Indikatoren, die wir verwendeten um den HUI jahrelang erfolgreich zu handeln, noch immer keine hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein baldiges Zwischenhoch zeigen. Die große Verkaufssaison hat noch nicht begonnen. ... Aber bis die Verkaufssignale aufleuchten besteht kein Grund, sich über ein entscheidendes Zwischenhoch Sorgen zu machen. ... Es ist wahrscheinlich, dass Sie später mit viel höheren Gewinnen verkaufen können." - ZI 10/05

5. HUI 243
"Während der HUI in diesem Aufschwung bereits um 53% anstieg, ist er im Vergleich zu den durchschnittlichen Gewinnen von 98% bei einem solchen Anstieg des HUI immer noch bescheiden. Wenn dieser Aufschwung sich entsprechend dem Durchschnitt entwickelt, ist 330 das nächste Kursziel. Ich vermute jedoch, dass sich dies als konservativ erweisen wird. Die Kombination des HUI, der maßgeblich über seine Bullenmarkt-Hochs vom Dezember 2003 in der Nähe von 257 ausbricht, mit Gold, das in die zweite Phase seines Bullenmarktes eintritt, könnte diesen Aufschwung viel höher treiben." - ZI 12/05

6. HUI 261
"Fazit ist, dass der Hebel des HUI auf Gold trotz populärer Vorstellungen genau richtig ist. ... Am Hebel gemessen sieht der aktuelle Aufschwung des HUI bisher mäßig aus, aber das war zu erwarten. Der Hebel des HUI auf Gold sieht bis zum finalen euphorischen Anstieg zu neuen Zwischenhochs, die das Ende eines größeren Anstiegs kennzeichnen, immer schwach aus." - Der Hebel des HUI auf Gold 2, Abhandlung vom 9.12.2005

7. HUI 277
"Einer der Gründe, warum die Stimmung bei Goldaktien so schlecht war ist, dass der HUI es nicht schaffte, über seine zwei Jahre alten Hochs von 257 auszubrechen. Es ist wunderbar, den Index letztendlich über diese Werte hinausschießen zu sehen um zu beweisen, dass sein Bullenmarkt noch immer am Leben ist und Potential hat. Ich vermute, dass diese neuen Hochs in Kombination mit neuen Hochs von Gold und Silber zu einem steigenden Interesse an neuen Edelmetallaktien führen werden. Dies sollte zu einem schnellen Spitzenwert von bis zu etwa 330 führen und damit das Ende dieses Aufschwungs bezeichnen." - ZI 1/06

Als der HUI schließlich Anfang Februar sein erstes Zwischenhoch erreichte, ging ich darin neutral, da unsere technischen Indikatoren vermuten ließen, dass er langsam überkauft wurde. Tatsächlich korrigierten die Edelmetallaktien in den darauf folgenden Monaten, bevor der letzte Aufschwung, hervorgerufen durch die Abwertung des Dollar, den HUI auf seine letzten Zwischenhochs im Mai anhob. Während unsere kurzfristigen Spekulationen in Edelmetallaktien nach dem Zwischenhoch vom Februar großteils mit exzellenten realisierten Gewinnen bei ihren Stoppkursen abgegeben wurden, erlebten unsere langfristigen Investments in Edelmetallaktien den beeindruckenden Anstieg des HUI bis zu seiner letzten Kursspitze im Mai.

8. HUI 342
"...Anleger dürfen nicht vergessen, dass alle Bullenmärkte steigen und fallen. Taktisch gesehen ist es ziemlich offensichtlich, dass Gold, Silber und der HUI weit über ihren entsprechenden 200-Tages-Linien handeln. ... Ich gehe für den Moment neutral. Da Silber indirekt durch das Schicksal von Gold gesteuert wird, und der HUI direkt davon abhängt, werde ich auch hier neutral gehen. Neutral heißt nur, dass eine normale, gesunde Korrektur wahrscheinlich ist, so dass es im Moment nicht schlau wäre, neue Longpositionen einzugehen. Es ist aber auch nicht klug hier short zu gehen, da Überraschungen in Bullenmärkten eher nach oben tendieren." - ZI 2/06

Als sich der HUI im Mai seiner sekundären Spitze näherte, warnte ich unsere Kunden von Zeal, dass Korrekturen in Rohstoffen, die sie bis zu ihrer 200-Tages-Linie zurückfallen lassen würden, immer wahrscheinlicher wurden. Wie ich zu dieser Zeit auch sagte, war dies kein grundsätzliches Argument, denn die Grundsätze sahen beeindruckend aus. Es war ein rein technisches Argument, da Rohstoffe kurzfristig überkauft aussahen. Es besteht kein Widerspruch, wenn man kurzfristig auf einen temporären Kursrückgang und langfristig weiterhin eindeutig auf einen Aufwärtstrend setzt.

9. HUI 379
"In den kommenden Monaten könnte uns eine scharfe Korrektur in den wichtigsten Rohstoffen erwarten. Egal wie riskant die technischen Trends aber werden, die Grundsätze der Rohstoffe stehen felsenfest. Es dauert viele Jahre, Bestände zu finden, Minen zu entwickeln und diese in Betrieb zu nehmen. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser starken Grundsätze ist jeder Kurs in der Nähe der 200-Tages-Linie eine günstige Kaufgelegenheit." - ZI 5/06

Anfang Juni schließlich, als der HUI nach seinem Einbruch für über eine Woche gestiegen war und Viele bereits das Ende der Korrektur in Edelmetallaktien verkündeten, warnte ich vor genau dem Gegenteil. Korrekturen dauern tendenziell eine gewisse Zeit, denn ihre Aufgabe ist es, die euphorische Marktstimmung auszugleichen, die zum letzten Zwischenhoch vor dieser Korrektur führte. Es dauert länger als ein paar Wochen, den Enthusiasmus eines solchen Bullenmarktes zu brechen.

10. HUI 334
"Gemessen an den Standards des laufenden Bullenmarktes hat diese Korrektur gerade erst begonnen. Sie dauert mittlerweile 14 Tage und fiel nicht weiter als 21%. Die fünf vorangegangenen, größeren Korrekturen des HUI verzeichneten durchschnittliche Verluste von 30% in 88 Handelstagen. Die größten Aufschwünge führten tendenziell auch zu überdurchschnittlich schweren Verlusten. Dieser letzte Aufschwung, der gerade erst zu Ende ging, führte zu einem Anstieg um 137%. ... Es ist also wahrscheinlich, dass uns beträchtlich niedrigere HUI-Kurse und mehrere Monate lange Seitwärtsbewegungen erwarten. Eine Korrektur des HUI um seine durchschnittlichen 30% würde zu einem Kursziel von etwa 275 führen. Wenn er um 35% fällt, wie nach den größeren Aufschwüngen zuvor, liegt das entsprechende Kursziel bei etwa 255. Beide sind unterhalb der 200-Tages-Linie des HUI. Leider können wir uns beim HUI, anders als bei Gold, nicht auf seine 200-Tages-Linie als Support-Linie verlassen. Sowohl 2004 als auch 2005 handelte der HUI für vier bis fünf Monate deutlich unter seiner 200-Tages-Linie. Seine Korrekturen führten in beiden Fällen zu Kursen von knapp unter dem 0,8-fachen seiner 200-Tages-Linie." - ZI 6/06

Warum stellte ich also diese Abhandlung zusammen? Ich will die absolut falschen Kommentare der letzten Monate zurückweisen, dass Korrekturen nicht notwendig sind und dass sie, auch wenn sie auftreten, nicht erfolgreich gehandelt werden können. Das ist ganz einfach Unsinn. Die Kunst der Spekulation ist billig zu kaufen und teuer zu verkaufen, und das erfordert genaue Beobachter der Märkte, um diese genau zu studieren, ihre Rhythmen zu erkennen und ihre Wahrscheinlichkeiten besser zu verstehen.

Wenn irgendjemand, den Sie dafür bezahlten, sie über die Märkte zu informieren, Sie nicht spätestens im April oder Anfang Mai vor scharfen Korrekturen in Gold, Silber und dem HUI warnte, dann haben Sie ihre Loyalität vielleicht dem falschen gegeben. Ernsthafte Beobachter der Märkte sahen alle Arten von Warnsignalen, die zu diesem Ereignis führten, aber sorglose Cheerleader ließen sich nicht beirren und wurden zerstört, da sie die Geschichte der Märkte nicht respektierten.

Wir von Zeal sind Spekulanten und ich liebe Spekulationen. Mein Titel auf meinen Visitenkarten ist „Spekulant“. Ich studiere die Märkte weil ich für meine eigenen Konten gewinnbringende Anlagen finden und als Spekulant dazulernen will. Da ich dieses Spiel spiele, um Gewinne zu machen, ist es mir absolut egal, wie unbeliebt meine konträre Meinung in der Nähe wichtiger Zwischenhochs und -Tiefs auch sein mag. Die Märkte sind kein Platz für jemanden, der Akzeptanz sucht.

Meine Geschäftspartner handeln und fühlen gleich wie ich. Während unsere Untersuchungen dazu dienen, unsere eigenen Transaktionen zu verbessern, verkaufen wir unsere Ergebnisse um bei unserer Aufgabe zu bleiben und die nötige Disziplin zu halten. Wenn sich unsere Kunden auf uns verlassen, müssen wir rastlos die Märkte studieren und werden damit selbst wieder bessere Spekulanten.

Unsere Mission ist es, am Spiel der Märkte aktiv teilzunehmen, um sowohl mit kurzfristigen Spekulationen also auch mit langfristigen Investitionen gewinnbringend zu handeln. Da wir dieses Spiel auch mit unserem eigenen Kapital spielen, bemühen wir uns intensiv, die Wahrscheinlichkeiten richtig zu verstehen auch an unsere Kunden zu kommunizieren. Wenn Sie nicht bereits vor den meisten dieser letzten Korrekturen von Gold, Silber und HUI verkauft hatten und deshalb Verluste erlitten, hätten sie diese sicherlich nicht einstecken müssen.

Da wir diese Korrekturen erwarteten, erhöhten wir unsere Stoppkurse und bildeten große Bargeldpositionen, um bei den kommenden günstigen Gelegenheiten zu kaufen. Die besten Zeitpunkte, um in einem säkularen Bullenmarkt elitäre Silber- und Goldaktien sowie Optionen zu kaufen sind dann, wenn die Metalle und Aktien für eine gewisse Zeit unter ihre 200-Tages-Linie fallen und damit die überhitzte Marktstimmung zerstören. Wenn sie die nächsten Aufschwünge von Gold und Silber genauso aufgeregt erwarten wie wir, sollten sie diese mit uns gemeinsam handeln.

Unser primärer Service ist unser monatlicher Newsletter Zeal Intelligence, aus dem auch die meisten Zitate in dieser Abhandlung stammen. Abonnieren Sie ihn noch heute, um unsere nächsten Empfehlungen für spezifische Edelmetallaktien und -Optionen zu erhalten, sobald die Wahrscheinlichkeiten wieder für eine erfolgreiche Anlage sprechen. Kürzlich veröffentlichten wir auch einen Zeal-Bericht, der die Grundsätze unserer 20 beliebtesten Goldaktien behandelte. Lesen Sie ihn bevor die kommenden Kaufgelegenheiten auftreten, damit sie über einige der vielversprechendsten Goldaktien Bescheid zu wissen, bevor die technischen Kaufsignale tatsächlich erscheinen.

Fazit ist, dass die letzten scharfen Korrekturen von Gold, Silber und HUI absolut zu erwarten waren. Kein normal Sterblicher kann die Zukunft voraussehen und konnte genau wissen, wann diese Korrekturen kommen würden. Aber die steigenden Wahrscheinlichkeiten für eine derartige Entwicklung waren unmissverständlich. Kein ernsthafter Beobachter der Märkte oder Spekulant sollte von diesen Rückschlägen überrascht worden sein.

Solche Korrekturen innerhalb eines säkularen Bullenmarktes sind von Zeit zu Zeit absolut notwendig, um die Marktstimmung ausgeglichen zu halten und zu frühe parabolische Anstiege und damit ein frühreifes Ende des Bullenmarktes zu vermeiden. Aber wie in den fünf vorangegangenen, größeren Korrekturen in diesem Bullenmarkt, deuten auch diesmal die Grundsätze klar auf einen weiteren Aufwärtstrend hin, wobei das Beste erst kommen sollte. (Förster :verbeug )

© Adam Hamilton
Copyright by Zeal Research (www.ZealLLC.com (http://www.zealllc.com/))

Dieser Beitrag wurde von Hermann Wagner exklusiv für GoldSeiten.de übersetzt. (Zum Original (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/pmcorrect.htm) vom 16.06.2006.)

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2818

Original in English war während meinen Ferien :o

mama mia

27.06.2006, 22:30

...heute hat's wieder mal :(

mama mia

27.06.2006, 22:39

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Short Term Gold Outlook - via video

Emanuel Balarie
Jun 27, 2006

What a difference a month makes. I have been "furiously" trying to find out what has changed in recent weeks.

Are the central banks selling their Gold?

Do we have reasons to believe that the talk about inflation has been blown out of proportion?

Was there a story about a large Gold find that I just happened to miss?

Did the price of gold head higher because hedge funds started buying gold in 2001?

Of course, it is foolish to think that any of the fundamentals that have been driving this bull market have changed. If anything, the fundamental reasons have only intensified.

Inflation concerns, for example, have grown across the board. The AARP reported that the average wholesale price of prescription drugs rose by 3.9% last quarter, which was four times the rate of inflation. In Germany, producer prices shot up by the highest amount in 24 years. Back in the states, the rental index of the core CPI was up 0.6% in May, the biggest increase in 16 years. Globally, Central Banks are scrambling to raise rates and put a stop to inflation.

Ironically, most Wall Street economists seemed shocked by the recent news of higher than expected core CPI numbers. Ben Bernanke has even stated that the recent rise in the core consumer price index is an "unwelcome" development. Personally, I don't think it was difficult to predict that inflation was going to be a concern. Whether it was the flooding of liquidity or the consistently high energy and raw material costs, it was only a matter of time until the core CPI reflected this. In any event, I expect the core CPI to spike higher and force a data dependent fed to continue raising rates.

If anything, the recent sell off in the gold market has reaffirmed to me that people are still not buying into Gold as a legitimate asset class. In the last several weeks, I have had conversations with self-proclaimed Gold Bulls that decided to sell their gold coins during this recent sell off. Although it was quite obvious that there were a good amount of speculators and technical buyers that had entered the market within recent months, I was surprised at how many people panicked during this recent sell-off. In truth, shaking loose the speculators was healthy for the overall direction of the Gold market.

So where do we go from here? The long term outlook remains the same. Gold prices will continue marching towards $1000 plus. I also believe that we will see new recent highs before the year is over. In the short term, John Carter of tradethemarkets.com was kind enough to put together a short 8 minute video presentation on the technical outlook for Gold.

Video
As a reminder, the risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Also, the opinions expressed in the video are solely of John Carter and Tradethemarkets.com.
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/video/gold/gold.html.

If you are interested in signing up for my free commodity newsletters that will periodically feature John Carter's technical outlooks, please sign up here (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/pages/newsletter.html).

Emanuel Balarie
Senior Market Strategist
Wisdom Financial, Inc.
email: ebalarie@wisdomfinancialinc.com
Direct toll free: 866-465-0017
International: 949-548-2021
website: www.wisdomfinancialinc.com
(http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/)Balarie Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Emanuel+Balarie)

http://www.321gold.com/photos/emanuel_balarie.jpgEmanuel Balarie is the Senior Market Strategist at Wisdom Financial. As an expert on foreign markets, foreign currencies, and the precious metals industry, Mr. Balarie often speaks at public engagements and his research is regularly published in investment newsletters.

You can find out more about Mr. Balarie and his services at www.wisdomfinancialinc.com (http://www.wisdomfinancialinc.com/).

Disclaimer:

mama mia

27.06.2006, 22:59

Dear CIGAs,

What is relevant here is how a major investment bank labels the recent rise in gold, the upward slant of the deflation skewed CPI and your knowledge of the engine of inflation named the Bernanke Helicopter Electric Money Printing Press.

This is quite gold positive in my opinion. Today is just the honeymoon of the new Treasury Secretary. I heard he took the position having been promised a free hand, but soon discovered there is no hand free in this coordinated Administration.

(Click to enlarge image)

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/49922_Charts270606-005.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/49922_Charts270606-005.jpg) http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/49923_Charts270606-006.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/49923_Charts270606-006.jpg) http://www.jsmineset.com/

mama mia

28.06.2006, 09:07

June 26, 2006

The Role of Precious Metals in an Investment Portfolio
by Nick Barisheff

While some investors view precious metals as a short-term cyclical speculation, there are actually three important reasons for including precious metals in every investment portfolio. These are: strategic asset allocation, hedging and tactical asset allocation.

Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic asset allocation is a method used to fully diversify investment portfolios by properly balancing asset classes of different correlations in order to maximize returns and minimize risk. While many investors believe their portfolios are diversified, they typically contain only three asset classes - stocks, bonds and cash. Real estate, commodities, precious metals and collectibles rarely form part of most investors' portfolios. With only three asset classes out of a total of seven, such portfolios are clearly not adequately diversified.

A recent study carried out by Ibbotson Associates, Portfolio Diversification with Gold, Silver and Platinum, noted that, since 1969, stock and bond correlations have increased and, contrary to popular belief, a mix of these will not result in a diversified portfolio. Today, most portfolios lack the negatively correlated asset classes - real estate, commodities and precious metals - necessary to achieve full diversification, and as a result are exposed to risk and volatility.

Ibbotson researchers constructed a composite index that held equal dollar amounts of gold, silver and platinum, and examined the correlations of that index to the other asset classes typically held in investment portfolios. The study, which examined the years 1972 to 2004, showed precious metals are the most negatively correlated asset to all other asset classes. As a result, it takes the least amount of precious metals in a portfolio to achieve maximum negative correlation and the appropriate level of diversification.

The overall performance of precious metals during the 32-year period was close to fixed income investments. Even through the long bear market of 1980 to 2002, precious metals outperformed both cash and inflation during the entire period.

From 1973 to 1984, a high inflation period, precious metals were the top-performing asset class, and the study concluded that precious metals provide an effective hedge against inflation. Precious metals were the only asset class with a negative average correlation to the other asset classes, the basis for diversification.

The Ibbotson study concluded that, by allocating from 7 to 15 percent of a portfolio to precious metals, returns would increase while risk decreased. These conclusions were not based on assumptions of a bull market in precious metals or a bear market in financial assets; they were simply based on a continuation of the returns and levels of inflation that have been prevalent recently.

Hedging

Hedging is a strategy used to offset investment risk; the perfect hedge eliminates the possibility of future losses. The old Wall Street saying, "Put 10% of your money in gold and hope it doesn't work", succinctly summarizes the hedging attributes of precious metals. And in today's economic climate, there are plenty of risks to hedge against: currency exchange declines, loss of purchasing power and "Fat Tail" events.

Currency Exchange Risk

Currency crises have been occurring on a regular basis since 1971 when US President Nixon "closed the gold window", and, globally, currencies were no longer backed by gold. When confidence in a currency wanes, people tend flee to the safe haven of precious metals. Perhaps most famously, the gold price exploded from 75 marks per ounce to 23 trillion marks per ounce in the 1920s Weimar Republic of Germany. Mexico experienced a currency crisis in 1995, and the peso declined by about 50% against gold in approximately three months. During Indonesia's currency crisis of 1997, the rupee lost 82 % over a one-year period. In Russia's 1998 currency crisis, the ruble declined by 60% in just one month. In Argentina's 2002 currency crisis, the peso devalued to 22 % of its previous level.

A currency crisis is typically triggered by excessive growth in the money supply or unsustainable government debt. Is the world's reserve currency, the US dollar, vulnerable? Total US money supply in 1971, when President Nixon ceased dollars-to-gold convertibility, was approximately $800 billion. Last year, the annual increase in M3 was more than $800 billion, bringing the total US money supply to $10.2 trillion. In other words, the US now has annual increases in the money supply equal to the entire money supply of 34 years ago. If this continues, the result will be hyperinflation and, eventually, a currency collapse. Meanwhile, the rising price of gold is acting as a leading indicator for troubled times ahead, signaling a growing non-confidence vote in a government's monetary policy.

Loss of Purchasing Power

An increasing money supply leads to the steady erosion of purchasing power. Based on published CPI figures, both the Canadian and the US dollar have lost about 83% of their purchasing power since 1970.

To appreciate how precious metals preserve purchasing power against inflation, consider that in 1971 a compact Chrysler cost about $2,300; today, the price is $14,000. A starter home was $24,000; today, it is $236,000. The Dow Jones stood at 890, compared to 10,500 at year-end 2005. As for gold, it was $35 per ounce, compared to $513 at year-end 2005.

If you convert these dollar prices to ounces of gold, you see that they have actually declined. For instance, the car that used to cost 66 ounces of gold in 1971 now costs only 30 ounces. The house that cost 703 ounces of gold now costs 431. In fact, you can buy almost twice as many cars or houses with your gold. Even investing in equities costs less today in gold terms. In 1971 the Dow Jones was 25 ounces of gold, while today it is 20.

Fat Tail Events

The third hedging benefit provided by precious metals is protection against a sudden, unexpected financial crisis - a fat tail event. Examples of fat tail events are war, terrorism, natural disasters, health pandemics and systemic financial risks such as a derivatives accident, bankruptcy of a major bank or a major corporation, defaults on bonds, derivatives contracts, insurance contracts and disruption of oil supply. When any of these occur, traditional financial assets often suffer while the price of precious metals tends to rise dramatically. While most investors regard insuring their homes an absolute necessity, their investment portfolios are often completely exposed and "uninsured" - lacking any precious metals allocation.

Tactical Asset Allocation

Although using strategic allocation or a hedging strategy is enough to justify a 7 to 15 percent allocation to bullion, tactical strategy justifies much higher allocations. Broadly speaking, tactical asset allocation means actively seeking out strategies that will enhance portfolio performance by shifting the asset mix in a portfolio in response to the changing patterns of return and risk. With rising oil prices and increasing inflation, precious metals are likely to outperform traditional financial assets in the years ahead. Here are some of the reasons why precious metals are a good tactical asset strategy today.

Precious Metals Bull Market

The bull market in precious metals began in 2002, and entered its second phase in the summer of 2005. Prior to that, the rising gold price simply reflected the US dollar decline. Since then, however, the price of gold, silver and platinum has been increasing in most currencies, including euros, Swiss francs, British pounds and Japanese yen. From a tactical point of view, portfolios should now be rebalanced so they are overweight precious metals in order to take advantage of current market trends.

The main indicator confirming this trend is the Dow:Gold ratio, a factor that indicates when to be overweight precious metals and hard assets, and when to be overweight financial assets. In 1999 the Dow:Gold ratio peaked at over 40, before declining to its current level of about 20. When the ratio is rising, as it did from 1945 to 1960 and again from 1980 to 1999, it is prudent to be more heavily allocated to financial assets with lower allocations to precious metals and hard assets. When the ratio is declining, as it is today, the opposite investment strategy applies. In our current economic climate allocations to financial assets should be reduced, while allocations to precious metals and hard assets should be increased in order to maximize returns.

Some investors think the precious metals bull market is well advanced, and they have missed the boat. However, when we compare the current market to the bull market of the 1970s, it becomes apparent that we are still in the early stages of what could be a 20-year bull market.

Determining whether the trend will continue is as simple as looking at the key drivers for precious metals price increases. While commodity-based supply/demand fundamentals are certainly a factor, there are more: increasing concerns about the weakening US dollar, burgeoning US debt and rising oil prices. Since the US dollar acts as the world's reserve currency, its decline will ultimately have a global effect.

US Economic Vulnerabilities

As the world's reserve currency, the health of the US dollar impacts all economies, currencies and investments. The US economy is currently propped up by a mountain of debt. In 2005, the federal debt increased by $571 billion, reaching the congressionally set debt ceiling of $8.2 trillion. If the present value of unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations is taken into account, it now stands at $49.4 trillion - $160,000 for each American.

The ballooning trade deficit has increased annually since 1975. Today it is approximately $781 billion, meaning the US must borrow over $2 billion each day to fund its consumption of imported goods and commodities. The US now absorbs over 80% of the entire world's savings in order to maintain its consumption. Since the US has outsourced much of its manufacturing and imports the majority of its oil, even a major decline in the value of the dollar will not reverse this growing trend. The US trade deficit has become systemic.

The US current account deficit is now approaching 7% of GDP. Economists believe that 5% is the critical number because, historically speaking, a current account deficit in excess of 5% has resulted in a currency crisis. During a currency crisis, demand for alternative currencies, including gold, silver and platinum, increase dramatically.

Total US debt as a ratio of GDP has surpassed the previous high set in 1933, when it stood at approximately 255% of GDP. Today, the number is well over 300% of GDP. The fact that foreigners hold a growing percentage of this makes matters worse; almost 50% of US government Treasury bills and bonds are held by foreign entities. If foreign investors, tired of funding US budget and trade deficits, lose confidence in the dollar, a massive exodus from both it and from US financial assets will ensue. The result would be a US financial disaster. Since the US dollar is widely viewed as the last stable currency, much of the money fleeing out of it will have nowhere to go but precious metals. A number of central banks have already announced they intend to diversify out of US dollars. Since aboveground global supplies of precious metals are currently valued at less than $2 trillion, and global financial assets exceed $70 trillion, the prices of gold, silver and platinum will increase dramatically if there is a shift in sentiment and demand explodes. Considering that precious metals are already rising against all currencies, this trend may have already started.

Gold/Oil Relationship

We are at a juncture where oil production is about to decline just as demand, particularly from China and India, is about to explode. Numerous studies suggest, and many experts agree, that the world is close to reaching peak oil production. The result of increasing demand coupled with dwindling supply will be an upward-spiraling oil price that drives precious metals price higher while negatively impacting financial assets and global economies.

Throughout history there has been a positive correlation between the prices of precious metals and oil. As the price of oil increases, so does that of gold. As gold rises, silver and platinum follow. Traditionally, oil trades at about 15 barrels per ounce of gold. Today, oil trades at about 8 barrels per ounce. Either gold is undervalued, or oil must decrease in price to about $30 per barrel, an unlikely event. At the normal 15-to-1 ratio, gold today should be priced at over $1000 per ounce.

Bullion vs. Mining Stocks

Hedging and tactical allocation to precious metals can only be achieved through investment in bullion itself, and not from mining company stocks. While stocks can be good trading opportunities during bull markets, they have a completely different risk/reward relationship than bullion. During the stock market crash of 1987, for example, mining stocks declined by a greater amount than equities in general, while the price of gold increased. Mining companies are exposed to many operational risks and can decline to zero; bullion cannot. During a currency crisis, bullion outperforms mining stocks because global investors as a whole will seek to hold bullion rather than invest in paper. While mining stocks are popular in North America, people in South-East Asia, South America, Europe and other parts of the world that have already experienced a currency crisis would rather have gold, silver and platinum bullion than anything else.

Bullion Investments

One of the most important things to consider when investing in bullion is whether it is fully allocated, segregated and insured. Unless this is the case, there may be multiple claims against the bullion, or it may not even exist. Many precious metals investments are nothing more than promises to deliver bullion at some future date. Bullion investments must precisely track the price of bullion, and not be influenced by the equity markets. If the form of investment is dependent on a counter-party and the counter-party defaults, all the benefits of holding precious metals could be lost at precisely the time when they are needed the most.

In summary, a portfolio allocation of 7 to 15 percent in precious metals is justified simply from the strategic and hedging points of view. If you take into account current vulnerabilities in the global financial system and the implications of peak oil, a much higher allocation is appropriate. The Dow:Gold ratio is an accurate indicator of the trend toward precious metals, and clearly confirms the need to be overweight in that sector at this time.

For a more detailed Power Point presentation, please visit www.bmsinc.ca/pp/.

*All dollar amounts US, unless otherwise indicated.

Nick Barisheff
Bullion Management Services Inc.

Nick Barisheff is the co-founder and President of Bullion Management Services Inc., which was established to create and manage The Millennium BullionFund. The fund is Canadas first and only RRSP eligible open-end Mutual Fund Trust that holds physical Gold, Silver and Platinum bullion www.bmsinc.ca.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=5446&pv=1

mama mia

28.06.2006, 09:18

von Graf http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/image.php3?u=1431&dateline=1151429107 :verbeug

http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showpost.php3?p=939986&postcount=1936

mama mia

28.06.2006, 11:21

Kitco's Jon Nadler on Gold

By Karl Heilman
27 Jun 2006 at 01:02 PM EDT

ST. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- An interview with Jon Nadler of Kitco.com on interest, gold’s direction, the new Buffalo Coin, and more.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: Gold has had quite the run in the past few months; what’s your take on the occasional ‘the bubble will burst’ comments?

JON NADLER: Let’s put things into perspective. Gold started its run at $252 per ounce, about five years ago. The recent (last six months) spike upward may look like a bubble, but it is not. It is an accelerated run-up precipitated by the hedge funds that have thrown a lot of hot money at the market is a short period.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: Why has the spot price of gold fallen nearly twenty percent in the past month?

JON NADLER: Primarily because the same funds we mentioned above pulled serious sums of money off the table all at once. Also, let us not forget that during the last two (almost three) quarters the rise in prices was not being accompanied by ‘real’ physical off-take in key countries such as India. Rallies such as this cannot sustain themselves without the physical demand component.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: How large of a role do China and India’s gold demand have in the current price?

JON NADLER: Their role is quite large and quite important but not in the ‘current’ price. They are the key consuming countries we look to, for a return of the physical buyer at lower price levels.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: If the Fed makes another interest rate hike this week, where do you see gold heading?

JON NADLER: We only see a possible negative impact should a half-point hike take place. Gold’s buyers have already factored in a quarter point increase. For them, any incremental dollar boosts make no real difference as they are not likely to commence preferring paper to gold. We also remind investors that some of the strongest rallies in gold (since 2001) have taken place precisely during the same periods when the Fed raised rates 17 times (!) in a

Thus the interest rate hike argument really does not have us worried.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: To what effect have the Iran nuclear enrichment dispute, the Iraq war, and energy costs influenced gold prices?

JON NADLER: In April, a great deal. As Iran headlines resulted in oil surging, the effect then spilled over to gold. There was quite a bit of physical demand in Iran itself, as locals are worried about the future consequences of their leadership. Currently, Iran (and N. Korea) are background factors (they still add to the geopolitical uncertainty premium we witness built into the gold price but are not immediate, daily influences) until something ‘real’ happens (we hope it does not).

RESOURCE INVESTOR: What are your thoughts on the release of the new, Gold Buffalo, .9999 grade coin? What about its price?

JON NADLER: Finally, the US has something it can compete with on the international bullion scene. However, there are lingering questions about what may happen to the premium on the Eagle coins out there, and what they might fetch when sold to a dealer (under melt?). A dual market may develop, with the .900 fine coins trading at lower offers and bids while the 24K coin surges ahead at ‘normal’ premiums. As of now, we do not know for sure. In any case, as far as Canada is concerned, at least these new coins will not bear GST – so that is the good news. Its price is the same as other bullion coins (3-5-7-9 percent from Mint to distributors). In the final analysis, it may be too little, too late. A total revamp of the US bullion coin program may have been more desirable. For example, stop making Eagle coins, start a whole new range of “Liberty” coins in all four metals (Au/Ag/Pt/Pd) with a unified design across the range. That may have made a real impact.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: Is this a wise time to invest in gold?

JON NADLER: When one buys gold for the right reasons (long-term capital preservation, asset diversification, portfolio insurance, inflation hedge, and an alternative currency) the time (and price) are always ‘right.’ What is more important is to ensure of the 10 or 15 percent asset allocation to gold in the portfolio.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: Where do you see gold heading by, let’s say, the end of 2007?

JON NADLER: How about 2006 first? We believe the average price for 06 will end up at 630 and in 2007 at about 730. Outside shock factors may well spike prices above 850 and a real financial world meltdown could bring 1200-1600 gold as well. But, we sure are hoping for no such levels. We prefer for the sky not to fall. Kitco is just a prudent and level-headed bullion house.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=21069

Quality ist gefragt :) wenn ich das richtig verstanden habe ;)

mama mia

28.06.2006, 19:20

http://www.321gold.com/images/321goldlogo2.gif (http://www.321gold.com/) http://www.321gold.com/ads/new/cornerstone.gif (http://www.321gold.com/banner_redirect.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cornerstoneresources.com%2F&id=154)
http://www.321gold.com/images/please_visit.gif http://www.321gold.com/images/home.gif (http://www.321gold.com/) http://www.321gold.com/images/links.gif (http://www.321gold.com/links.html) http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
The June Newsletter
What Now?

Enrico Orlandini
28 June, 2006

[Editor's note: The gold/silver analysis starts here (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806.html#gold)]

Every once in a while you come to a fork in the road, and if Lady Luck really likes you that particular day, you're able to recognize the fork when you come to it. This can be said of the May 10th high of 11,670.19 registered in the cash DJIA, and the same can be said for what is supposed to be the June 22nd low. Or will it be a lower high? In a recent article entitled "One Possible Road Map (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini061306.html)" I happened to mention, in a footnote no less, that June 22nd could produce a stock market crash if the moon is right (sarcasm here). I originally intended to leave the comment out altogether as it seemed so remote that it wasn't really worth mentioning, and it wasn't the purpose of the article. Finally, I decided to put it in a footnote precisely because I felt it should be mentioned but in a footnote I could do it without drawing a lot of attention. Who reads footnotes, right? Apparently a lot more people than I ever thought possible. After answering hundreds of e-mails asking what an inversion is, what's a time cycle, and why it would be significant, I have come to see the error of my ways. Never again will I try to hide my inner most fears at the bottom of a page. Instead I will leave it scribbled on the margin of my trusty legal pad where it belongs. But now that the possibility of a crash it out of the bag, I would like to try to put things back in perspective if at all possible.

I began to write about the DJIA, and its May 10th top, the day it happened and that is the real story, not a possible crash scenario. One should realize that we were never in a new bull market as so many CNN gurus would like you to believe. Rather we were simply in a liquidity distorted bear market rally that had the bad taste to last almost four years. Quite probably the longest bear market rally ever recorded anywhere, but a bear market rally none the less. How do I know? I a word, value! Bull markets begin with good value and end with a lack of value. The bear market rally began with a PER of 17, ended with a PER of 20, and at no time did the average dividend surpass 2.5%. No value there folks, just an appeal to the greater fool and that is a club where membership is expensive and, at the same, undesirable. The secondary upward reaction in the DJIA has come to an end and that is the real story, not the how but the when. If we crash here or make a 'managed' orderly decline, like the dollar, it's really irrelevant. What matters is that we are heading down. The crash will come and value will rise to the top like cream. The date will be important only to historians. Speculators like myself see the change in trend, take a position, and try to hold on for dear life. The duration of this new leg down in the bear market is not as important as when you take your initial position, although I do think this leg down will last for quite some time and turn out to be brutal, crash or no crash. As old man Rothschild would have said "blood will run on the streets" before all is said and done.

As high as the DJIA rallied, it wasn't high enough. We missed a new all-time high by just one hundred measly points, and it just goes to show you that the difference between obscene valuations and real value is razor thin. In the end, those elusive one hundred points just might turn out to be the most expensive one hundred points in history. The DJIA recently traded as low as 10,698.85, more than one thousand points from our recent high, and yet the complacency was so thick you could have cut it with a knife. People just don't believe the DJIA can decline and I can't understand it. If I didn't know better, I would swear everybody is smoking something and it's not tobacco!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/1.gif I can't begin to tell you just how dangerous this attitude is. I try to study the history of the market as much as I can and, although it is quite subjective, and I am hard pressed to find a similar situation. Not in 1929, and not even in 1907. The level of complacency is clearly in uncharted waters! The "this time it's different" crowd has really done a job.

Assuming I'm right and the bear market rally is dead and gone, then what can we expect from here on out? Well, the first thing you need to recognize is that a declining DJIA is in reality a deflationary force of significant proportion. The first leg down in this bear market wiped out an estimate two trillion dollars in market cap and the second leg down has the potential to be at least as damaging, if not more so. What's more, we don't have to crash to do it. All we need is a 'grind em up and spit em out' type of decline; a decline that is so gradual that the bulls hesitate to exit because they always have the impression that the next rally is right around the corner, but the corner never comes. This type of decline affects everything from a company's ability to obtain credit to your IRA account. Almost nothing is left untouched! Unemployment and earnings drop and the latter is where the rub comes in. Earnings drop almost as fast as share price, and in some instances, faster. As a result, the PER that everyone follows so closely seems take forever to fall to acceptable levels, i.e., single figures.

These deflationary affects spill over into everything: banking, housing, consumption, nothing will escape unscathed. To make matters worse, it feeds on itself in a self-stoking sort of way.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/2.gif The US is a country that depends on consumption1 (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806.html#1), and as consumption declines, businesses and all the rest suffer. That in turn leads to more unemployment, defaults on mortgages, and so on. By now you should get the idea. A quick look at the weekly chart of the Consumer Index ($CMR) above shows what some would classify as a "double-top" followed by a decline down to test the 50-wma. Below you'll see a weekly chart of the Banking Index ($BGX) and although you don't have all the comparisons, it is the last of the major indexes to give up the ghost.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/3.gif No double top here, just a new high at 113.73, and then a decline to test the 50-wma. I suspect it will continue down from here but we'll just have to watch.

In conclusion, I don't know if the June 21st high was the lower high or not, and I don't know that a crash will follow. I suspect not. I suspect that the initial decline of 1,022 points was sufficient enough to introduce an element of bearishness. It was also large enough (probably) in points so that it would be difficult to follow it up with a crash. To have a reasonable crash scenario, I would have liked to see the high fall on the 22nd reaching 11,251 as minimum and 11,371 would have been even better. That didn't happen. On the other hand, the fact that the bonds broke critical resistance on the 22nd is ominous if you ask me. The price action Monday and Tuesday will be critical in defining the current trend. If we continue up, then we were testing resistance and we'll rally some more, to 11,371 at the very least. If we turn down from here, then the lower high is in and we'll grind it out to the downside. We'll just have to watch.

Market Commentary

Bonds - The September Bond futures contract closed out the week at 105.22 and below excellent support at 105.27. This is the second time, the first being back in mid-May when we made one close below 105.27 and then proceeded to rally until mid-June. The top of the rally was 108.14. Since then we've given back almost all the gains in less than half the time it took to accumulate them. That is a troublesome sign of weakness. As most of my clients know, I have been anticipating a break of 105.27 for quite some time and here we are for the second time. Two consecutive closes below the above mentioned support level will almost guarantee a trip down to the next level of critical support at 101.27. The following weekly chart of the US Treasury bond paints a rather bear picture with the price trading well below the 50-wma and 200-wma.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/4.gif Also note that the 50-wma has turned down and appears ready to cross below the 200-wma and that would be extremely bearish. On the other hand, a look at the RSI and MACD shows that the bond is quite oversold.

What is not shown is the fact that the bond has probably priced in a 6% interest rate and a trip down to 101.27 would seem to indicate that interest rates will hit 7.5% at the very least. Any idea what that will do to the housing market, or credit card debt for that matter? Let's just say it will not be a positive influence. There will be some minor support levels along the way, at 104.00 and 102.22 to be precise. And 105.27 should become reasonable resistance. Bonds just happened to break support on June 22nd and I don't think that is a coincidence. If we have a confirmation Monday, i.e., a second consecutive close below 105.27, we should see lower prices and higher rates. In a deflating economy, that will make debt service difficult at best.

US$ - The decline in the dollar stalled at 83.27 basis the September US Dollar futures contract and since then we have seen a reaction to the upside. There have been a number of articles published calling for a rally in the Index up to 96.00 and maybe even higher before we turn down and make new lows. While anything is possible in our distorted world, I seriously doubt that such a secondary rally could occur. Why? Simply put, there are just too many dollars floating around out there and there are more, a lot more, being printed every day2 (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806.html#2). For such a rally to occur, it would be necessary for the Chinese and Japanese to have a willingness to increase considerably their exposure to the dollar. I believe the opposite is the case. Our banks, because that's the role China and Japan really play, would love nothing better than to exit their dollar positions. Ideally they want to do this in an orderly fashion, but I believe that is next to impossible. Let's take a quick look at the weekly chart of the US Dollar Index below and I'll make a few observations:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/5.gif First of all, is that a classic head-and-shoulders formation or what? And the fact that it took slightly more than a year to complete is even more impressive. Since the November 2005 high, we've posted two lower lows and we are now going to make a second lower high. The current reaction in the dollar will, in my opinion, stop somewhere around the 87.33 level bases the September futures contract. That would be a 50% retracement from the May 83.27 low, back up to the November 2005 high of 91.40.

Technically speaking, the dollar is not oversold (contrary to a daily chart where the dollar is over bought). Both the RSI as well as the MACD are in neutral territory. On the other hand, it is obvious the dollar is in a bear market as the 50-wma is trading below the 200-wma and the actual price is below the 50-wma. We have now entered an area of considerable resistance and it is possible that the dollar just may have topped on Friday. We'll have to wait and see. In any event, you can rest assured that the dollar will not enter a bull market any time soon, at least not the dollar as we know it today.

Oil - The crude oil has been trending for weeks now, since the beginning of April to be precise. April's top was followed by a weak move down and that should have been followed by a test of the new high. That didn't happen and we began to trend sideways. For a better illustration, take a look at the weekly chart for crude oil below and two things become apparent. First, we have used and continue to use the 50-w.m.a. as support and most significant declines bounce off of this support. This "correction" has yet to touch it. Secondly, we appear to be consolidating while, at the same time, working off an over bought condition. If we are still in fact in an inflationary world, and I believe we have been for quite some time, oil will continue to consolidate and then move to a higher high. A test of 81.00 would be the order of the day in my opinion.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/6.gif The rub comes if deflation is raising its ugly head. If that's the case, this will turn out to be distribution and we'll turn down and break support at the 50-w.m.a. eventually testing the 200-w.m.a. I would not advise clients to jump the gun here and dump oil and related stocks just yet as oil has done nothing wrong. Looking at this chart, and noting that the current consolidation is above the last two highs of 70.85 and 69.20, I have to assume the next move will be up. Never fight the trend, and the trend is up until the price tells us otherwise!

Oil, along with copper, will be the ultimate gauges of inflation. As most of my clients know, I preached the deflation scenario for the better part of five years and only recently became a stagflation3 (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806.html#3)convert. I really had no choice given the advances in the CRB; after all it's hard to argue with a 100% increase in price. In all honesty, it's a position that I am not comfortable with and I suspect the deflation boogieman is hiding under the bed and will end up rattling the furniture before it is all said and done! I believe the next move in oil and copper will give us the answer; we'll just have to be patient and wait.

Gold - It has inspired more dreams and, at the same time, dashed more hopes than any other substance the world has ever known. This time around, it won't be any different. The bearishness that existed last week reached a level that I have never experienced before, and I've been in this business for a couple of decades. I was informed that the bull market was over and we'd entered a new bear market by numerous clients who were old enough, and educated enough, to know better. The yellow metal would be back at US $400.00 an ounce before you knew it and, if I was smart, I'd better take the short side while I had some money left to bet with. So what did I do faced with the new reality? I went out and bought gold, that's what I did! When ever people are willing to throw there gold away, you can bet your last shekel I'll be there to fish it out of the trash can.

That's the psychological part of gold; what about the technical aspects of the precious metal. As you can see in the daily chart of gold below, we can see that by mid-June gold had reached an extremely oversold condition as it traded all the way down to its 200-dma. To put this secondary reaction in perspective, before the rally began gold had traded in a range for $534.00 to $571.00 for what seemed like an eternity.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/7.gif What the reaction succeeded in doing is simply return to the level we broke out from. No more and no less. On a closing basis, we held strong support at $553.00 bases the August Gold futures contract and that just happened to be my original projection for a bottom.4 (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806.html#4) That decline amounts to a 25% correction, the largest such reaction to date.

As you may recall, I wrote an article back in February where I talked about the significance of $569.70 (spot price) and the 50% principal. The $569.70 price just happens to be a 50% retracement from the 1999 bear market low back up to the 1980 bull market high. Once we managed two consecutive closes above that target, you could rest assured that, sooner or later, we would test the 887.50 all-time high. We saw the two consecutive closes above the target and then gold really took off. It's no coincidence that the recent negative reaction came back down to that target, with two marginal closes below it, and then proceeded to rally back up to the $580.00 area. I now believe that gold should consolidate in a trading range that will extend from $553.00 on the low side on up to $588.60 on the high side. This consolidation period should last a period of weeks followed by an attack of good resistance at $644.70 and then a test of the $728.60 resistance that stopped the last rally. I expect this process to take the remainder of the year and a break of 728.60 should occur by Christmas, assuming there is no external crisis that could affect the price one way or the other.

Silver - There really isn't much to say here except silver will bottom when gold does and not one minute before. In a perfect world it wouldn't be that way, but we do not live in a perfect world and less so in the precious metals. Manipulation is a force to be reckoned with and the boys' won't take their knee off the neck of silver until they have no other choice. Once we can confirm gold's bottom, silver may very well lead gold up just like it did the last time around.

Gold Stocks - I have been long Buenaventura, Coeur D'Alene, Gold Corp., Glamis, Newmont, Royal Gold, and Silver Wheaton for a long time and I will stay long these stocks without exception. I'm the first to admit that there is nothing flashy in this portfolio. I liken it to 'meat and potatoes', but it certainly gets the job done. The latest reaction was the first time where I did not add on to my holdings when I saw a bottom. Why? We have an extenuating circumstance, and it's nothing less than the DJIA! Take a look at the daily chart for the HUI below:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/8.gif The HUI topped at 401.69 in early May right along with the DJIA and gold, and then turned down. The decline continued for slightly more than a month until it bounced off good support at 274.10 earlier this month. So far we have rallied and closed above what was good resistance at 303.32. The next line of resistance is at 320.50 and I suspect it will take some work to close above it. Should the DJIA have topped on the 21st, it will be quite difficult for the HUI to work its way up. Knowing how rough a three or four month decline in the Dow could be for gold stocks, I have decided to sit through it. I've sat through everything else over the last six years, what's another couple of months.

CRB - Since I've already covered oil, gold, and silver already, I won't spend a lot of time here. Suffice it to say that we are at a critical juncture in the CRB Index. Take a look at the weekly chart for the CRB Index below and you'll see what a bull market looks like.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806/9.gif If I were to put a historical chart in its place, you would see a situation very similar to gold, i.e., an almost uninterrupted rally from the year 2001. In the above chart you can clearly see that the price has used the 50-wma as support and the only violations have been marginal at best. The RSI is in neutral territory as is the MACD. The histograms are actually negative at the moment.

This is important so pay attention. If in fact the inflation we have experienced over the last four years or so is to continue, the CRB must hold the 50-wma. That's my opinion of course and I'm sure that you can find a bevy of analysts who would disagree with me. As I have mentioned a number of times in this article, my concern is that deflation is already applying pressure to the US economy and, if I am correct, the CRB will demonstrate that with a prolonged decline. Maybe even a new bear market. A lot depends on whether China and India have developed an internal market with sufficient demand to offset the decline in the US economy. I don't have the answer to that question, but the CRB will tell us shortly.

Conclusion

We are at an important juncture. Is the DJIA's low high on the 21st a valid top? Is it just a coincidence that bonds broke down on the 22nd, taking out what was strong support at 105.27? The CRB, oil, and copper are hanging on by a thread and if they roll over and head down, what could be a more deflationary scenario? Commodities, stocks, and bonds all heading south at the same time! It probably won't happen, but what if it did? The only thing left for the Fed to do is fire up the helicopters. I'll let you in on a little secret, it won't make any difference.

References

1 With respect to consumption, I have seen estimates reaching as high as 75% of GDP.

2 Most Developer countries are engaging in a tight money policy. That means a restricted money supply and higher rates. These currencies compete with the dollar. The only way these countries could take on more dollars is to print more local currency. That doesn't mix with a tight money policy.

3 Stagflation is high inflation together with a slowing economy.

4 I should have stuck to it.

22 June, 2006
-Enrico Orlandini

For those of you interested in receiving information on the Gold Fund we manage, please feel free to e-mail us at ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com and we will respond as soon as possible.

email: ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com
website: www.dowtheoryanalysis.com
(http://www.dowtheoryanalysis.com/)Orlandini Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Enrico+Orlandini)

DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
formerly LASCO REPORT
Ignacio Merino 636
Santa Cruz
Miraflores, Peru

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini062806.html#gold

mama mia

28.06.2006, 19:23

(http://www.321gold.com/)
[/url] Market Update

Clive Maund
Jun 28, 2006

Precious Metals stocks are believed to have bottomed, although we may see a test of the recent lows, and prices may dip marginally below them in coming weeks, any such retreat being regarded as a major buying opportunity. It is considered to be too soon after the recent plunge for a new intermediate uptrend to get underway. This being so we are likely to see some backtracking after the rise of the past couple of weeks, the psychology of this being that some of those who were stunned by the ferocity of the recent plunge, are tempted to bail by the higher prices, and thus temporarily cap the advance.

Before going further it should be noted that there is a potential Head-and-Shoulders top forming in the PM stock indices, although it must be emphasised that it is now regarded as a low probability that this formation will complete and it can only be expected to do so in the event of the broad market turning seriously lower. The way to handle this risk is to exit positions in the event that the HUI index (or XAU index which exhibits a similar pattern) breaks below the "neckline" of the formation shown on the accompanying chart. In the event of the index backing off towards this line in the near future, it will present an excellent across-the-board low risk entry point for many stocks, as they can be bought with the proviso that they are sold for a modest loss in the event of a closing breach of the H&S neckline.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund062806.gif So, taking the positive view that the bottom is in, what can we expect to see in coming weeks? Basically, a period of backing and filling roughly between the recent low and about where we are now. This base building is what we normally see after a reaction of the kind we have just witnessed, it allows time to sentiment to recover, making renewed advance possible. It is customary for such action to continue for sufficient time to allow the falling 50-day moving average to drop back towards the 200-day, and although it is not expected to close the gap completely, it will probably do so to large extent. This gives us a clue as to how long we can reasonably expect the market to mark time before a new uptrend starts. As we can readily deduce from the HUI chart (and various stocks), we are probably looking at a period of 4 to 6 weeks. Thus the current rally from the low is believed to be close to ending and is expected to be followed by a dip back towards the lows - a dip which sho uld be bought. Timing wise it is thought to be too early to consider call options, for the reasons just described, but these could be very advantageous if purchased towards the bottom of the developing base area in coming weeks.

On [url="http://www.clivemaund.com/"]www.clivemaund.com (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) we have just prepared a review of 36 Precious Metals stocks, which includes large, medium and small cap issues, in order that we can position ourselves for the anticipated new intermediate uptrend.

Jun 27, 2006
Clive Maund

Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Clive+Maund)
email: support@clivemaund.com
website: www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/)

Clive Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from the Society of Technical Analysts, Cambridge, England. He now lives in Chile.

Visit his subscription website at clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/). [You can subscribe here (https://www.clubcyrus.com/clive/subscribe.php)].

No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Copyright ©2003-2006 CliveMaund. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund062806.html

mama mia

28.06.2006, 19:34

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Gold / Oil - Where to?

Der Invest Informant
Randy Buss
June 28, 2006

The following is an excerpt from our 27 June Weekly Outlook #26

Before we worry about what the Fed will do with interest rates this week, let's take a look at the BIG picture regarding gold, oil and the Euro and get some perspective. Note this is a weekly chart below (less clutter) going back to 1990. After the recent sell-off in gold many are talking of "it's over", etc with respect to higher gold prices. We are cautious to that way of thinking because history looks different and currently does not bear out that projection. On leaving office in 2000 Clinton left with the US economy doing well and the USD (purple) at its zenith while gold was hovering around the $250 mark. Since that time the Euro (green) and gold have been moving in near perfect tandem for the last six (6) years and since January of this year in exact tandem. In fact, since 1990 gold and the Euro (German Mark proxy) have moved together. The chart further below shows a 15 yr. long-term inverted head / shoulder formation at 1.35 Euro level. We now feel that consolidation on the Euro / USD will take place as gold moves sideways to lower over the next 6 months.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss062806/1.gif http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss062806/2.gif We have already stated this outlook in the Latest Letter "World Glut 2006" - see that for more information. Likewise, as shown in the chart below, the oil and gold prices have as well been moving in tandem since 1990. This is a possible warning sign that something is not "right" going forward. IF history can be a source of predicting the gold future then ideally gold would rise once again as the US Dollar starts to break down and the Euro rate rises AND equally, oil and gold should move in tandem upward. Yet, who is leading whom?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss062806/3.gif According to Nouriel Roubini's bearish bullet point scenario below, oil may be headed down another 25 to 30 dollars. At the moment, this seems hard to believe yet we let it stand and are open to the idea. Would this take gold with it? Here we have a number of ideas -

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss062806/3a.gif http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss062806/4.gif Courtesy : SG

both gold and oil were bottoming in '98/'99 as the swap spreads were starting to rise
CB rates were accomodative then but not now and therefore may be a "positive false"
Gold works anti-cyclical ; in "fear" environments it does well
The swap spread follows the USD overall
We do not see a higher continuance in the swap spread right now
The "premium" on oil prices due to geopolitical risk is around $10 to $15 / bbl currently
In conclusion, we foresee a stabilizing oil price in the $55-65 price range mid term, not considering geopolitical risks, and see a re-assertion of the gold / crude ratio moving higher over the next 12 to 18 months as crude has simply moved too fast too quickly. From 1999 to 2006 crude moved near 700% in price while gold moved in the same timeframe approx. 150% hence we see that ratio at a low right now. We foresee this moving higher either through higher gold prices or lower crude or a combination of both. If there are any major geopolitical "events" in the unstable oil regions then we stand by our $100 crude outlook depending on length and location of the incident.

For more detail and more charts on this and other articles please visit the homepage www.dinl.net (http://www.dinl.net/index.php5?m=y) in the Latest Letter / Weekly Outlook section.

More on this in upcoming issues - if you would like to know more, please sign up for a free subscription to Der Invest Informant. As well, please visit the site daily and read the latest information and inputs.

Randolph Buss / Berlin, Germany

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss062806.html

mama mia

28.06.2006, 19:41

....hmmm :schwitzwenn man nur wüsste :rolleyes

mama mia

28.06.2006, 19:46

...und weiter geht's :schwitz

Verfasst von Dr. Michael Lorenz (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=28) am 28.06.2006 um 10:05 Uhr
Bestimmung langfristiger Ein- und Ausstiegspunkte im Gold

In den 70er Jahren (und auch danach) konnte man Gold mit einem einfachen System handeln: War der Monatsschlußkurs über dem 12MA (gleitender Durchschnitt über die Schlußkurse der letzten 12 Monate), so ging man long, war der Monatsschlußkurs unter dem 12MA, so ging man short.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_1.jpg

Zwischen 1970 und 1975 entfernte sich der Kurs vom 12MA, im Jahre 1972 um etwa 36% und in den Jahren 1973 und 1974 um etwa 56%. Danach kamen Konsolidierungen von etwa 5 Monaten, wobei die Fibonacciretracements von 38.1% und 50% eine wichtige Rolle spielten. In der großen Konsolidierung von 1974 bis 1976 fiel Gold sogar mehr als 50% des Anstieges seit 1970.

Wie sieht es heute aus? Auch nach 2001 konnte man Gold mit dem 12MA wieder so handeln wie in den 70er Jahren. Im Juli 2004 und Mai 2005 lag der Monatsschlusskurs unter dem 12MA. Jedoch war diese Verletzung mit einem Fibonaccimonat oder einem zyklischen Monat verbunden, so dass das eher ein Signal zum Longeinstieg als zum Shorteinstieg war.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_2.jpg

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_3.jpg

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_4.jpg

Fibonacci- und zyklische Monate bilden oft lokale Tiefs oder Hochs aus. Das haben wir erst kürzlich wieder gesehen. Der Mai 2006 war ebenfalls Fibonaccimonat vom und der Kurs erreichte den 12MA+38%, etwas mehr Abstand zum 12MA im Jahre 1972.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_5.jpg

Der nächste zyklische Monat im Gold ist der August 2006. Das könnte der Monat mit dem Tiefpunkt werden (oder Ende Juli oder Anfang September). Natürlich könnte der Goldkurs auch irgendwann den 12MA berühren und nach oben drehen. Diese beiden Szenarien sind völlig gleichberechtigt.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_6.jpg

Schauen wir einmal in den Tageschart. In den 70er Jahren bewegte sich der Goldkurs meist zwischen dem 50MA-20% und 50MA+20% und hielt sich meist über dem 200MA.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_7.jpg

Wie sieht das heute aus? Wieder bildet der 50MA+20% einen Widerstand und die drei anderen eine Unterstützung.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/lorenz-2822_8.jpg

Langfristtrader haben es relativ einfach, in den Goldmarkt zu investieren. Das Risiko ist grob (jedoch nicht sicher) durch den Abstand zu den MAs und zu den unteren Bändern bestimmt. Die Frage, wann Gold wieder nach oben dreht, wird auch durch Intermarketbeziehungen bestimmt.

Seit 1970 läuft statistisch gesehen (Kreuzkorrelationstest) die Inflation dem Gold um 6 Monate voraus. Jedoch: Im Inflationsjahrzehnt 1970 bis 1980 lief Gold um 2 Monate der Inflation voraus. Das hat zur Folge, dass die Inflationszahlen derzeit nur bestätigenden Charakter haben, entscheidend ist die Goldpreisentwicklung.

Gold "riecht" die Inflation. Im Inflationsjahrzehnt 1970 bis 1980 war die entscheidende Kraft für die Goldpreisentwicklung nicht nur die Hyperinflation sondern vor allem die negative Realverzinsung, d.h. die Renditen der 30jährigen Anleihen waren niedriger als die Inflationsrate. Damit flossen riesige Gelder aus dem größten Markt der Welt, dem Markt der 30 jährigen US-Anleihen, in den Goldmarkt, der das vorhandene Vermögen sichern konnte.

© Dr. Michael Lorenz
www.boersenwendepunkte.de (http://www.boersenwendepunkte.de/)

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2822

mama mia

28.06.2006, 19:56

für jeden etwas :rolleyes :schwitz:D

mama mia

29.06.2006, 10:35

Verfasst von Jürgen Müller (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=61) am 29.06.2006 um 7:42 Uhr
Münzen, Barren, Gold oder Silber?

In meinem Artikel "Über die Lagerung von Gold und Silber (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2153)" bin ich bereits auf einige Aspekte der Lagerung von Edelmetallen eingegangen. Die Frage, die jedoch grundsätzlich zu erörtern ist, ist was man wo einlagern sollte. Auch hierfür gibt die Literatur einige allgemeingültige Hinweise, die ich im Folgenden kurz zusammenfassen möchte; nicht zuletzt deswegen, weil ich in meiner täglichen Beratungspraxis immer wieder auf diese Frage angesprochen werde: Was soll ich kaufen? Münzen? Barren? Gold? Silber?

Wir könnten es uns natürlich einfach machen und sagen, dass dies im Grunde egal sei: Gegen Altpapier (Zitat Rainhard Deutsch ;-) wird eh alles steigen, bzw. korrekter gesagt, zumindest wertstabil bleiben, da steigende Edelmetallpreise ja bekanntlich nur ein Gradmesser dafür sind, dass das staatliche Kreditgeld im Wert sinkt. Aber ganz so einfach ist es nun doch nicht.

Adam Hamilton von Zeal formulierte in 2002 ein "1x1 des Goldinvestments (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/goldstk101.htm)" anhand der folgenden Pyramide:

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/mueller-2825_1.gif

Demnach sollte das Fundament eines Edelmetall-Potfolios zu 5-20 % aus physischem Gold (Silber) bestehen, welches im unmittelbaren Zugriff des Inhabers gelagert werden sollte. Darüber baut sich die 2. Stufe des Investments auf: a) Physisches Material, welches "irgendwo" gelagert ist (engl. "held by third party") und b) Minentitel verschiedener Kategorie (Majors, Produzenten ausserhalb der Top-25 sowie Junior-Minen). Die Spitze der Pyramide (5-10%) stellen Derivate, Futures etc. dar.

Gefühlsmäßig würde ich diese Pyramide wie folgt etwas simplifizieren bzw. konservativer gestaltet:
http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/mueller-2825_2.gif
(Quelle: "Generation Gold (http://www.goldseiten.de/shop/buch.php?b_id=149)", S. 204)

Ich persönlich sehe kleine handelbare Einheiten (1 Unze Silbermünzen American Eagle, Maple Leaf, Vreneli Goldmünze etc.) als Versicherung an, die im persönlichen Umfeld gelagert werden sollten. Kleine Einheiten deswegen, weil man im Notfall auch nur ein Brot am Tag essen kann, der Bäcker auf eine Unze Gold jedoch schwerlich wird rausgeben können (gesetzt den Fall, dass staatliches Kreditgeld im täglichen Warenverkehr nicht mehr akzeptiert werden sollte, und Sie nicht gleich den ganzen Laden aufkaufen möchten). Von den Goldmünzen ragen der Krügerrand und die Britannia-Münze noch hervor. Ersterer aufgrund seiner hohen Auflage mit einem Aufgeld von nur rd. 3%, zweitere durch den hohen Nennwert der Münze (100 britische Pfund).

Für die Investment-Stufe schlage ich möglichst große Gold- und Silberbarren vor, d.h. Einheiten mit wenig Aufgeld (Zuschlag auf den reinen Metallwert). In unserer Einkaufsgemeinschaft z.B. kaufen wir mittlerweile überwiegend 1000 Unzen Standardbarren an.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/mueller-2825_3.jpg http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/mueller-2825_4.jpg

Gegenüber 1 kg-Barren ist die so erzielte Ersparnis rd. 4,7%, gegenüber 5 kg-Barren rd. 3%:

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/mueller-2825_5.gif
Preisinformation Pro Aurum vom 28.6.2006

Alleine durch den Kauf großer Barren und der Verrechnung der Mehrwertsteuer, ergeben sich für den Investor rd. 20% mehr Unzen für den identischen Einsatz von Kapital. Das ist also die zweite Stufe der Pyramide. Die Spitze der Pyramide bilden bei mir Aktien und ggf. Derivate. Speziell bei Derivaten, Optionsscheinen etc. sollte man jedoch sehr vorsichtig sein und sich eingehend informieren, bevor man hier Geld investiert.

In eigener Sache: Ein ausführliches Informationspaket der Einkaufsgemeinschaft können Sie unverbindlich und kostenlos unter www.goldsilber.org bestellen. Wir sind derzeit 91 Gesellschafter mit einem Volumen von rd. 3/4 Millionen Euro.

© Jürgen Müller
www.goldsilber.org
http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/mueller-logo.gif (http://www.goldsilber.org/)

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2825

mama mia

29.06.2006, 21:33

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC MAKES MAJOR CHANGES TO MAY 10 STATEMENT

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC VOTE TO HIKE RATES UNANIMOUS

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC:SAYS CORE INFLATION HAS BEEN ELEVATED

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC SAYS INFLATION RISKS REMAIN

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC SAYS GROWTH IS MODERATING

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC: "ANY ADDITIONAL FIRMING" DEPENDS ON OUTLOOK

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06
FOMC HIKES RATES BY QUARTER POINT TO 5.25%

;) :D

mama mia

30.06.2006, 09:04

...und jetzt wohl die Scharmützel um einige Marken :rolleyes

http://img280.imageshack.us/img280/6995/cbotcis5sm.jpg

drei mal gescheitert............... :rolleyes

nacht..... :bett

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=941069#post941069)

:schwitz na dann hoffen wir mal, dass es hält :cool ;)

mama mia

30.06.2006, 16:47

...weil NEM ein Leithammel ist ;)

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7214/1988/1600/Gold%20Global%20Perspective9.0.jpg

Friday, June 30, 2006

NEM - Chart Review

Newmont Mining Corporation , NYSE : NEM

NEM - Typical A-B-C correction wave (59.59$ - 47.34$), went below the 200 DMA. Yesterday managed to break above the pink downtrend line, close above the 200 DMA and the 61,8% Fibonacci line. RSI trending up above 50, PPO positive crossover, PPO histogram positive, ADX bullish crossover. Nice candle on relatively high volume. Support at the 200 DMA, between 50$ to 51$ and at green support line. Resistance at the 50 DMA and Fibonacci appropriate levels.

http://goldandsilverstocks.blogspot.com/

mama mia

30.06.2006, 16:49

...vielleicht dauert's ja noch ein Weilchen ;) :o :D

Why the Arab countries continue to embrace the doomed dollar

Dr. Eckart Woertz
Dubai, UAE
Jun 29, 2006

The dollar is to decline in value, and an exclusive currency peg to it, as in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, is unwise. Given the accumulated US deficits and imbalances in international trade, this analysis is such a no-brainer that reiterations of it, including those by my humble self, have become a bit boring. Thus, at this stage let us ask the contrarian question: why has the dollar - although stumbling - still held its ground as a worldwide reserve currency instead of falling like a stone, and why have the Gulf countries so far paid only lip service to a necessary diversification of their currency holdings?

Total US debt, including that of households and public agencies, has been ballooning since the 1980s. It now amounts to $44 trillion - 350 percent higher than the US' GDP. To make matters worse, most of that money is spent on consumption, while investments and jobs are moving to China and elsewhere. Thus, with a dwindling economic base, this debt has effectively become too high to be repaid. Either there will be a default in payments or, more likely, the dollar will be devalued by inflationary policies to such an extent that it will not hurt to 'pay' it back. Currently, five dollars of additional debt buy only one dollar of GDP growth, the net asset position of the US has been increasingly negative since 1985, and the trade deficit has spiraled out of control. There is no doubt that the US dollar is financial radioactive waste, and it is not really clear why anybody would like to hold it or tie their fate to this doomed currency. And yet, the US, which needs to attract 80 percent of worldwide savings to finance its current account deficit, still manages to do so. Rather than worldwide investors being suicidal, this is a problem of size and a lack of alternatives. When you have a debt of one million, you have a problem, but when you have a debt of one billion, your bank has a problem - the latter does not want to write off its assets, and will continue to throw good money after bad, just to keep you afloat. That is the position of the US, which is well aware of it; John Conolly, treasury secretary in the Nixon Administration, put it bluntly in 1971 when the US decoupled the dollar from gold: "The dollar is our currency but their problem."

After the oil shock of the 1970s, the OPEC countries were awash with cash and were obvious candidates to balance the US deficit. Saudi Arabia, in particular, was courted by the US administration to buy US securities, and was given special tranches of treasury bills that did not go through the normal competitive auctioning process. In the 1980s, low oil prices made the current account surpluses of OPEC countries a thing of the past and Germany and Japan stepped into the gap, with the latter obtaining the special tranches that Saudi Arabia had received in the 1970s. With German reunification and Japan's recession, the US' financiers changed once again, as the role was partly taken up by China and other emerging markets. Recently, with the resurgence in oil prices, OPEC countries have come into the spotlight again, as they have current account surpluses of approximately 35 percent of the US deficit, while the corresponding figure for Asia is 49 percent.

Recently it has indeed been the oil-exporting countries that have kept the US dollar afloat, despite occasional announcements to the contrary. Between September 2005 and April 2006, the treasury holdings of the biggest holder, Japan, declined from $672 billion to $639 billion, while the number two, China, continued to increase its holdings from $306 billion to $323 billion, but did so reluctantly, amidst calls by senior officials for currency diversification. The oil-exporting countries and the UK, however, increased their holdings massively from $66 billion to $99 billion and from $96 billion to $167 billion respectively. The increase in UK holdings has been attributed largely to Arab buying out of London.

In light of these plain numbers, GCC announcements of currency diversification appear to be mere rhetoric. The 1 percent change in Kuwait's currency peg last month was rather modest, and other GCC countries, like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain, were quick to deny that they would follow suit in making changes to the status quo. The plan of the UAE central bank to increase its share of euros from a meager 2 percent to only 10 percent of overall currency reserves has been postponed repeatedly, and has not yet been implemented. As its announcement on the matter came shortly after the US refused to let Dubai Ports World handle the management of American ports in the wake of the P&O takeover, the announcement might have been no more than a warning of retribution. Qatar's position - holding up to 40 percent of currency reserves in euros and up to 90 percent in dollars - seems to have been the most courageous one so far, but in general, one can attest that the special relationship between the US and the Gulf countries is still intact. Most importantly, plans are still in place to peg the unified GCC currency to the US dollar in 2010. Even neighboring Iran, an outspoken advocate of diversifying in favor of the euro, and a country hardly known for its endorsement of US foreign policy, recently shunned Hugo Chavez's proposal at the OPEC summit in Caracas to price oil in euros, instead announcing that it would stick to pricing oil in dollars at its planned oil exchange on Kish island.

Only 10 percent of GCC imports come from the US, while roughly one-third apiece comes from Europe and Asia respectively. At the same time, two-thirds of the region's energy exports go to Asia. Thus, from a trade-weighted perspective, an exclusive currency peg to the dollar does not make sense, and one could speculate about whether the GCC countries' dollar allegiance is not economic in nature, but politically motivated, as the GCC states depend heavily on the US for security in an unstable region. There are, of course, a number of economic reasons to hold on to the dollar, although they are quite different from the ones suggested by the textbook wisdom of mainstream economics. The first is that the dollar may be in bad shape, but that other currencies do not look much better. Compared to their GDPs, budget deficits in the EU are on average comparable to that of the US; Japan's is actually much higher. The only difference is the more balanced foreign trade position that the two have.

As the GDP and the number of inhabitants of Euroland are comparable to those of the US, or even surpass it, the dollar is facing real competition for the first time, in terms of transaction domain. Formerly, the thinness of markets for hard currencies like the yen, the Swiss franc, the deutsche mark, and gold limited movements out of the dollar because of the lack of sizable alternatives. However, apart from the limited political and military power of Euroland, the euro is not yet sizable enough to be an alternative - the market capitalizations of its bond and equity markets still lag far behind those of the US. It thus remains to be seen whether the euro can acquire a status as an international reserve currency on equal footing with the dollar by 2010, as expected by Nobel economic laureate Robert Mundell. This is all the more true for China - if it can avoid a hard landing for its overheated economy and develops the political and military clout to solve its growing energy problem, it might be able to become a second competitor to the dollar in 10 or 20 years. However, so far the Chinese yuan is not even fully convertible, and China's opaque capital markets are only a tiny fraction of the size of their American counterparts.

Thus, the dollar is illiquid because there are so many of it. For countries that want to diversify, there are simply not enough assets denominated in other currencies, and the gravity of established contractual obligations and trading platforms denominated in dollars is causing a dollar attraction, which is completely independent of the US economy and its abysmal deficit.

To grasp what is going on with the dollar, one has to look at it as a world currency that is fuelling global commerce, not as the currency of an isolated nation-state. Since its beginning in the 16th century, capitalism has always had a hegemonic power that has acted as the central banker of the world and has supplied it with the liquidity it has needed. First this was the Spaniards, then it was the Dutch, and next it was the British, once they rid themselves of Napoleon. The demise of the British pound began with World War I, and after World War II, the dollar finally took over within the framework of the Bretton Woods system. At that time, the US was by far the biggest oil producer in the world, and accounted for more than 50 percent of global industrial production. Aside from the military might of a superpower, the dollar was backed by US current account surpluses and by gold. Today, only military might is left. Since 1971, the US has essentially been paying for its imports with printed paper, without a need to export goods and earn foreign currency or gold to pay for this. No other nation has this privilege.

Nevertheless, the dollar debt juggernaut fuels the world economy, and everybody is happy with it. It goes without saying that the US housing and consumer markets benefit, but the Japanese love it as well - the yen carry trade has enabled them to stabilize their shaky financial system with a zero interest rate policy and without inflation. China and Southeast Asia still have not developed domestic alternatives for their export-oriented industrialization, and the Europeans are content to sail in the geopolitical and economic wake of the US.

Thus, with no clear alternative in sight, the financial health of other countries and currencies is heavily dependent on the US dollar Ponzi scheme. If the dollar goes down, they go with it, and as with the prisoner's dilemma, everybody is afraid to make the first move - the first one to abandon the dollar could set off a chain reaction that would backfire and affect them as well. Thus, the dollar's demise might take a bit longer than common sense would suggest, as everybody is trying to evade the unpopular repercussions. Nevertheless, it is inevitable, and that is why the GCC countries need to contemplate a diversification into other currencies and gold sooner rather than later.

-Dr. Eckart Woertz
Program Manager Economics
Gulf Research Center
P.O.Box 80758
187 Oud Metha Tower, 11th Floor
303 Sheikh Rashid Road
Dubai, UAE

tel : +971-4-324 7770 Ext: 454
fax: +971-4-324 7771
email: eckart@grc.ae
website: http://www.grc.ae
http://www.gulfinthemedia.com

mama mia

30.06.2006, 22:38

:cool

mama mia

02.07.2006, 19:03

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Looks like the worst is over, but there is still risk

Paul van Eeden
Jul 3, 2006

As anticipated the US Federal Reserve raised the overnight interest rate on Thursday by one quarter of a percent to 5.25%. Instead of rallying on the news the dollar plummeted. In the accompanying statements the Fed seemed to indicate that its stance towards further interest rate increases has softened and it would consider both inflation and economic growth going forward. Since there are clear signs the economy might be slowing down this could mean the end of the Fed's rate hikes -- hence the dollar fall.

The gold price rose in direct response to the weaker dollar and a casual observation of the gold market might lead one to the conclusion that the worst is behind us. Nonetheless, I remain cautious because base metals prices are still grossly overvalued in my opinion and if base metals prices fall they could drag the gold price down temporarily. That's because many of the institutions that bought into the commodity super-cycle idea also bought gold, and if they sell, they will sell across the board.

The positive for gold is that pressure on the US dollar is increasing. My own expectation is that the dollar has to fall, on average, roughly another 35%. In the May 29th Commentary I mentioned that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was quoted in Forbes as saying the dollar had to fall by 35% to 50% in order to balance the US current account. Last week I saw an article quoting Daniel Gros, a director of the Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS) saying that accounting errors in America's balance of payments and net international investment position add up to a staggering $2.7 trillion. His prediction: A substantial depreciation of the US dollar.

In the March 6th Commentary I explained that both China and Japan have to let the dollar fall as neither of the two could unilaterally keep the dollar where it is. In several commentaries I had documented China's changing stance towards the dollar and in the March 6th commentary I reported that Japan had changed its stance as well, by saying that the end of its zero interest rate policy had arrived. However, neither China nor Japan has actually done anything substantial yet. China has not rebalanced the basket of currencies against which the renminbi exchange rate is set and Japan has not yet started raising interest rates. That does not mean changes are not coming.

Japan announced again this week that its policy of zero interest rates is over and suggested that the Bank of Japan could start raising interest rates by the end of summer. Higher Japanese interest rates would kill the yen-dollar carry trade and could lead to a rise in the yen-dollar exchange rate (devaluation of the dollar).

President Bush's Treasury secretary nominee, Henry Paulson, told a Senate panel that the US has to aggressively encourage China to make its currency more flexible. Translated, it means that China has to allow the US dollar to fall.

As the dollar falls the gold price in US dollars will rise and according to my calculations the gold price should rise to about $1,000 an ounce. That makes the current gold price of around $600 an ounce look very attractive. If I did not own any gold related investments I would be aggressively buying right now. But, as I said earlier, there is also some risk that the gold price could fall further before it eventually rises to triple digits. Therefore I would also not be fully invested at this time.

I always try to engineer win-win situations, which is why I own a lot of gold investments and I have a lot of spare cash. If the gold price goes up, I'm happy. If the gold price goes down, I can buy more at lower prices, and I'm happy. It also makes it much easier to sleep well at night and not worry about what the gold price is going to do next week or next month.

Paul van Eeden
email: pve@publishers-mgmt.com

If you enjoy reading these commentaries I suggest you go to my website (http://www.paulvaneeden.com/commentary.php) and register to get them by email. Rest assured that I do not sell or rent any of my subscribers' email addresses. http://www.321gold.com/photos/paul_van_eeden.jpgPaul van Eeden works primarily to find investments for his own portfolio and shares his investment ideas with subscribers to his weekly investment publication.

For more information please visit his website (www.paulvaneeden.com (http://www.paulvaneeden.com/)) or contact his publisher at (800) 528-0559 or (602) 252-4477.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/vaneeden/vaneeden070306.html

mama mia

02.07.2006, 19:10

Is This the Pause Before Deflation Leads Gold Through the Old Highs?

By David J. DesLauriers
30 Jul 2006 at 09:01 PM EDT

TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=21172)) -- In October of 2005, your correspondent penned a story entitled “Will Gold Pause Yet Again as Inflation Turns to Deflation? (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13995)”. The basic premise was that inflation fears would cause a spike in gold prices, but as those fears abated due to lack of substantiation, there would be a retracement period during which investors who were not in the sector previously would have a second chance to take part - before worries about deflation (the real deal) took the yellow metal to new heights.

We predicted that, “With many economists and analysts having jumped on the bandwagon now, there is likely to be a sustained din about inflation until strong evidence to the contrary renders its absence unmistakable. It seems reasonable that this could go on for some time, and in all probability gold will continue to move up alongside it.”

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Indeed, remarks in Don Coxe’s latest issue of Basic Points, ‘Global Cooling’, seem to indicate that hedge fund participation in the name of a phantom inflation was the reason for gold’s abrupt upsurge. Coxe stated, “As we learned in a recent trip to visit clients in Greenwich and Manhattan, quite a few "new converts" came aboard for the wrong reasons. They saw commodities soaring for the first time since the 1970s, read of the return of inflation and of Bernanke's inability to handle it, and decided that they needed to invest in inflation hedges. With talk of inflation in the air—and on the air through CNBC—the obvious beneficiaries of such stagflationary sentiments were the precious metals.”

What Now?

At the time, we were at the tail end of what we described as a “two-year pause for gold equities, something that may change if the inflation scare takes hold of investors’ imaginations.” That is what we just witnessed as gold soared through the $700 mark despite a relatively firm greenback.

This leads us to our other statement of October 25th 2005, a day when gold closed at $464 an ounce, “The question is, if gold breaks the $500 mark on the back of what would appear to be an engineered inflation scare, and if nearly all of the new money coming into gold is from players seeking protection from said inflation, what will happen when it is shown to have been ‘tamed’?”

The answer is that the new money that pushed gold to $725 fled just as quickly as it entered, and the metal came off to test its 200-day moving average in the face of tightening from the major central banks of the world.

But with Bernanke now hinting that rate increases will soon stop, and gold having taken its lumps as the fast money exited, the second chance ‘pause’ that we referred to in October may now be upon us.

The Next Six Months

As we also remarked in October, “It is unclear if or when the inflation threat will cease to be a worry, and deflation will emerge as the new menace. It is also impossible to know how long the intervening period could be.”

Either way, we do believe that this is the beginning of what we called, “the next frustrating pause… in that period after the inflation scare passes, and while the market digests the new reality and adjusts for deflation.”

We think that this transitional period, because it involves a learning curve as hedge funds et al., adjust to, and digest the new reality, could take some time. Therefore, the change in sentiment, and the bounce, will not happen overnight.

Conclusion

Readers should keep in mind that your humble correspondent is no macro-economic expert, merely a lowly scribe. Consider this article and its conclusions therefore, to represent by no means a scientific analysis, but simply food for thought.

Our belief is that, with gold having tested its 200-day moving average and bounced back over $600, an end to fed tightening near, and a softening of the global economy in sight, the next six to twelve months (or so) will see the second part of our thesis borne out. Fears of inflation will turn to fears of deflation, and the yellow metal will decisively breach the old high.

In the meantime, we would look for gold to remain in a band between maybe $550 and $650 per ounce, and for the developer and junior mining equities to continue to trade from sluggishly, to mildly bullishly.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=21172

mama mia

02.07.2006, 19:14

Posted On: Friday, June 30, 2006
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Weekly Charts From Trader Dan
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Author: Dan Norcini
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Click here to open/enlarge in PDF format (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/3154_Charts_for_06-30-2006.pdf)

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http://www.jsmineset.com/

mama mia

03.07.2006, 08:58

Verfasst von Redaktion (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=46) am 02.07.2006 um 8:22 Uhr
Rohstoff Spiegel 01/2006 - Der neue Rohstoffbrief von GoldSeiten.de

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/rohstoff-spiegel_2836.pngEs ist uns eine Freude Ihnen das neueste Kind der GoldSeiten-Familie vorstellen zu dürfen: Den "Rohstoff Spiegel"!

In dieser neuen 14-täglichen Publikation, die kostenlos über unseren Verteiler erhältlich ist, finden Sie neue exklusive Analyse, Interviews und Hintergrundbericht die unser Angebot auf der Website ergänzen.

Die aktuelle Ausgabe können Sie über folgenden Link herunterladen:

» Rohstoff Spiegel 01/2006 http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/pdf.gif (http://www.rohstoff-spiegel.de/pdf/rohstoff-spiegel_01.pdf)

In dieser Ausgabe erwartet Sie:

editorial: Bald wird es langweilig!

leitthema: Vergessen Sie China nicht

minenecke: 1,3 Mio. Unzen Gold und jede Menge Potential

charts & co: DRD Gold - Kaufkurse rücken näher!

marktmeinung: Edelmetalle aktuell weiterhin interessant

märkte aktuell: Rohstoffhausse vorbei?

quergedacht: Das nahende Ende der Papiergeldzeit

Für die Anzeige benötigen Sie den Adobe Acrobat-Reader, den Sie unter http://www.adobe.de/products/acrobat/readstep.html kostenlos aus dem Internet herunterladen können.

Falls Sie Interesse bekommen haben und den Rohstoff Spiegel ab nun regelmäßig bequem per E-Mail beziehen möchten können Sie sich hier anmelden:

E-Mail:

mama mia

03.07.2006, 11:56

....im GoldseitenForum gesehen :verbeug

:rolleyes

mama mia

04.07.2006, 08:46

Posted On: Monday, July 03, 2006

Gold Chart From Lars Lindgren

Author: Lars Lindgren

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=3751&T_ARID=3820

mama mia

04.07.2006, 13:06

http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Gold+Silverilver
Nell Sloane's daily comments
Monday Jul 03

METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:00 AM: GOLD +1.20, SILVER +17.00

London Gold Fix $619.50 +19.50

LME Copper stocks 93,500 ml tns, -75 tons

COMEX Gold stocks 8.031 ml oz, Unch,

COMEX Silver stocks 102.2ml oz, -435,050 oz

OVERNIGHT ACTION: Chinese gold was sharply higher this morning off follow up from the US action Friday.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Evidence of strong economic activity in Japan overnight spurs gold and silver higher in the wake of the stellar gains made late last Friday in a host of other commodity markets. In general, the equity markets are higher this morning and that is probably because of the initial jump start provided by the Tankan survey. With the US ISM Manufacturing Index and US Construction Spending both expected to be marginally higher this morning, it would seem that the impact from the economic numbers will be generally positive this morning. Energy prices are minimally higher in international cash market action (the energy futures markets are closed today) and therefore the positive tilt from the oil market last week probably remains in place at the beginning of the new week. With the Dollar mostly unchanged and the platinum market also showing a very strong bid in Globex action, the outside market influence for the precious metals this morning appears to be supportive.

GOLD:
GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: With the big range up move last week, the gold market has served notice to the bear camp, that the threat of too much slowing has been downgraded. With the oil market also rising sharply last week, the inflation threat certainly remains in the background and that also probably served to stimulate investor interest in gold off the late June low. Traders have taken note of the stellar performance of precious metals funds in the first half of 2006 and that could also serve to keep investor interest in the metals strong going forward. In fact in the week end Press the gold market continued to see a number of anecdotal stories about jewelry demand remaining strong, despite high prices. In other words, the bull camp seems to be capable of consistently "spinning" the fundamentals to meet their bullish bias. In fact, overnight the Japanese Press specifically noted purchases from jewelry makers and that serves to cushion the market against the sagging demand fears that were embraced for a large part of May and June. It is possible that the gold market begins to shift its focus toward the pace of US numbers, as the market tries to confirm that the US economy remains strong despite the measures being taken to slow its growth. With the critical US employment report due out on Friday, it is possible that the metals markets will look ahead to that number throughout the week. The trade did suggest that fund buyers seemed to be the main buyers in the Japanese action overnight and with Japanese jewelers also buying gold overnight the gold market has started off the week with a tangible reason to rally. The June 27th Commitment of Traders with Options report showed the Gold Non-Commercial position to be net long 78,676 contracts, with the Non-reportable position also net long 34,980 contracts for a combined spec and fund long position of 113,000 contracts. With the gains made since the COT report was measured ($36 to this morning's CBOT high) the spec long position could become a limiting condition for gold. We have to wonder if today's US auto sales figures will be undermining to gold, as the gold market might need some help from the economy to continue to push prices upward. The August gold seems to have little resistance until the $625 level today but close-in support isn't seen until $616. If the numbers depict even minor positive progression in the US economy, that could be just enough lift to keep last weeks positive tilt in control over prices.

SILVER:
SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: With the platinum market showing upward progression overnight and international copper market action recently managing a run up in prices, we suspect that the physical demand side players in silver are cheered. In the overnight action the silver market is seeing a very supportive early tilt from the gold market and that might allow the silver market to pick up where it left off last week. The direction of the US equity market will continue to be important to silver, as the silver market hasn't totally discounted the fear of slowing seen for most of June. However, with that Japanese Tankan survey overnight coming in strong, it is clear that the trade has carried the macro economic optimism from last week, forward into the new week. In fact, with the Dow finishing the 1st half of the year with a minimal +.4% gain and the S&P actually losing ground over the first two quarters, the metals would seem to be very attractive to the fund managers. The September silver seems to have a critical pivot point around $11.17 but really solid support might not be seen until the $11.00 level. Initial resistance is seen at $11.31 and the bias in the market to start the week is mostly positive. If the US economic numbers manage to promote a view of ongoing growth and tensions in the Middle East remain high, we suspect that the trade will attempt to push silver prices up. However, the June 27th Commitment of Traders with Options report showed the Silver Non-Commercial position to be net long 16,102 contracts, with the Non-reportable position also net long 19,792 contracts for a combined spec and fund long position of 35,000 contracts. On the other hand, with the silver market up $1.13 cents since the COT report mark off date, the COT positioning certainly understates the spec and fund long positioning into the opening this morning. However, as long as US economic numbers are generally positive, we suspect that September silver will be able to respect the prior close of $10.92.

METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 7/3/2006

COMEX SILVER (SEP) 07/05/2006: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 1139.3. The next area of resistance is around 1116.5 and 1139.3, while 1st support hits today at 1067.5 and below there at 1041.3.

COMEX GOLD (AUG) 07/05/2006: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today's trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside target is 629.0. The next area of resistance is around 624.0 and 629.0, while 1st support hits today at 608.0 and below there at 597.0.

***

http://www.321gold.com/photos/nell_sloane.jpgNell Sloane
Email: nell@nsfutures.com
1 800 238-2610
http://www.nsfutures.com (http://www.nsfutures.com/)

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mama mia

04.07.2006, 16:04

Bank of Portugal sold 15 tons of gold in recent months :rolleyes
Source: Dow Jones

The Bank of Portugal said Monday that it has sold 15 metric tons of its gold reserves "in recent months," as part of its continuing effort to diversify its reserve holdings.

The bank didn't specify the timing of the gold sales or give prices for the yellow metal.

The Bank of Portugal sold the gold under the terms of the Sept. 27, 2004, agreement among central banks. That agreement allows the signatory banks to sell up to 2,500 tons of gold.

The Portuguese central bank last reported gold sales Dec. 19, 2005, when it announced the sale of 10 tons from its reserves.

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=5885

mama mia

04.07.2006, 17:33

Worldwide Markets at Crossroads

By Peter Grandich

July 3, 2006

www.grandich.com

“The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds."
- William James "Will" Durant

I’m penning this alert with one foot out the door, as my first summer vacation in seven years looms large. I’m mentally exhausted as both of my companies have never been busier (thank God) and my ministry work has kicked into a higher gear. So please forgive me for not writing a long dissertation on the subjects at hand. I will however, endure to make it abundantly clear how I see things.

The financial markets worldwide are at major crossroads. I do believe we’re on the threshold of social, economic and political changes that only happen once every few centuries. The impact is likely to go beyond most bearish assessments in both scope and time. The very fact that most financial institutions and mainstream media don’t share such a view is actually supportive, as history has demonstrated most of civilization was caught unprepared at key points of history. The next 5 to 10 years is going to be one of those key points.

With regard to the financial markets, there’s a gigantic monster whose actions are about to rock the financial world like never before. Move over boogeyman and say hello to Mr. Hedgefunds. No matter at what area of the markets you look, the footprint of the behemoth is evident. For now, most aren’t complaining as their slash-and-burn way of investing has been overall beneficial to the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd’s way of thinking. But I believe we’re about to see the monster exposed and what we’ll find is widespread misdeeds and over-leveraging unlike anything ever seen or imaginable on Wall Street. Stay Tuned.

Gold

Back in the early to mid 90s when I was a legend in my own mind, I actually thought I could predict market movements on a regular basis. And when a market went against my prediction, it was the market that got it wrong and not I. Therefore, while my flesh would like to gloat about another good call on gold, I’m going to move on after a very short pause… Ah, that felt good-lol.

Seriously, it was very fortunate to sidestep yet another of the sharp, but short, corrections gold has gone through since I returned to the bullish camp in 2003. While it’s not my intention to be portrayed as a market timer (because it’s a losing proposition, IMHO), avoiding these corrections for the most part and getting back on board as the renewed uptrend took hold, has given both a financial and mental comfort zone from which to operate. The corrections so far have been classical secular bull market corrections and are a necessary evil on the march to a new, all-time high for gold above $875 (adjusted for inflation, we’ll need to hit $2,200).

It’s very important for you to have a plan of action for all possibilities and not be left to make decisions during the emotionally-torn moments when markets are cratering. For me, I know when we’re at extremes by what people write and call about, especially after I have made a commentary. When I dare suggested we’re at the most overbought level ever, numerous people voiced opinions otherwise, and some in a manner that leads you to end up asking yourself, “What happen to these folks when they were growing up?”

The last correction went a long way in setting the stage for us to not only get back above the recent highs around $735, but gave us a better base from which to challenge the all-time highs. Just before the correction began (and we stepped aside), there were people literally knocking each other over to exclaim their new or updated bullishness for the precious yellow. And the media, especially the ones who don’t normally even give gold a quote, were issuing one glowing article after another. Sure enough, the correction takes hold and before you can say, “Oh my God”, tirades about how the end-of-the-gold-bull-market-world are everywhere.

I’m not going to publish the quotes or the names of these folks who went from bulls to bears literally overnight because I’ve made enough erroneous forecasts to last a lifetime myself. But it is critical to recognize how fast we went from severely overbought to oversold, yet gold didn’t violate any long-term uptrends or see any significant changes in the bullish fundamentals that remain intact. The good news is (for those of us on the long side), that most of these folks now bearish will not have the intestinal fortitude to reverse their positions again or anytime soon. This can help prevent us getting frothy again too soon.

Silver

It’s usually more volatile than gold and recent history has been no exception. But thanks to its “kissing-cousins” relationship with gold, one can’t see new all-time highs for gold and not think that silver will at least track gold up percentage-wise. (In fact, it can lead at times).

Platinum and Palladium

I’ve noted that these metals have the best overall balanced supply and demand picture and therefore offered the least risk of serious losses for the foreseeable future. This also meant they wouldn’t see anywhere near the upside percentage move gold and silver can (and should). Two things have happened that make me even more bullish on the PGMs. First, palladium has corrected back to the $300 area and now offers at least a 30% up move over the next 12 months. And second, the sharp sell-off finally in the overvalued South African Rand has made the South African PGM producers attractive as a group.

Base Metals

It’s critical for you to separate precious metals from base metals. It may seem like poor advice at the moment, but I believe hindsight will end up showing us that as inflation hedges, those investors who chose to lump base metals with precious metals don’t understand the cyclical nature of commodities in general. (And to those who say this time its different- good luck). Many of the bullish base metal forecasters are also predicting a stagflation type overall world economy – a slowing down while inflation rises. Unfortunately, there’s no economic history to support such a stance. Base metals benefit from sustained non or low inflationary economic growth which gives them pricing power because their products aren’t collectively major components of overall consumer price inflation like oil and gas.

The bullish argument (and it’s a good one) is that China and India devour all base metals production and therefore prices can only go higher. The bearish argument contends that the combination of a slowing U.S. and world economy as a whole more than offset the strength from China and India. The other part of the bearish argument is not one being discussed at any great length and is often hard for the novice investor to grasp, but it’s the core of my bearish stance. I mentioned earlier that hedgefunds have been moving in and out of markets in a slash and burn style. They have become the absolute single biggest force ever in the history of world financial markets. They’re not dumb, and I believe as a group have correctly recognized and taken advantage of the three bubbles we’ve had since the 1990s.

The first was in their infancy as the new King – the general stock market of the 1990s. But like all bubbles, that one burst. They then saw real estate as a path to riches and it, too, became a bubble that’s now bursting as we speak. Last year, they grasped the bullish argument for commodities and have now caused a metal like copper to reach bubble status. (Remember, bubbles usually last longer and go higher than most first imagined.) The problem is that most speculators come on board when the bubble is evident and don’t get out before it blows up. The very fact that it is harder to find a needle in a haystack than find a base metals bear among our industry and investors that play it, worries me to near-death. (The numerous emails that this commentary will generate is also an indication).

I believe 2006 should signal the cyclical highs for metals like copper, zinc, nickle and the like. It doesn’t mean they collapse, but their upside is limited if not already fulfilled while precious metals and uranium have clear sailing ahead (outside of the secular bull market corrections we’ve endured so far).

Copper

Because it’s the one base metal I speak of in all commentaries, I would like to note that we’re seeing evidence that the supply shortage that helped drive prices up is waning. The International Copper Study Group showed copper production topped consumption by 64,000 tons in the first quarter. The difference now is to sell rallies in copper versus buy dips.

U.S. Dollar

THE ONLY PARTY THAT DOES NOT KNOW THE U.S. DOLLAR IS DEAD IS THE U.S. DOLLAR. It had a recent reprieve because of the emerging market stock market and currencies meltdowns. It also managed to pause in its retreat on the back of the misguided thoughts that a dramatic rise in U.S. interest rates would be the tonic it needed to regain its King status again. Let me say again, THE ONLY PARTY THAT DOESN’T KNOW THE U.S. DOLLAR IS DEAD IS THE U.S. DOLLAR

Oil

I think Iran has moved front and center again as it appears not to be prepared to respond in the timeframe the U.N. and key world powers have given it regarding stopping its enrichment of uranium. Refusal to do so or the appearance can only help underpin oil for now. I suspect if we get a hurricane in the Gulf again, we can see oil spike up and test or make new highs. But if this happens, I would want to be a seller into this as I think come Fall, we can begin to see one of the sharpest falls in oil prices in several years back under $60 by Spring of 2007 (okay send those emails).

Uranium

If all markets were so easy – going up!

Mining Shares

Let’s first remember to separate actual producers (and emerging producers) from exploration companies (“Hopes and Dreams, Inc.”).

The good news is that despite several factors that have hindered mining companies as a whole (more in a moment), producers as a group have benefited from the boon in commodities and investors’ quest to be a part of the action. The market value of the global mining sector rose more than 70 percent in 2005. This has helped lead to a marked increase in mergers and acquisitions (I wrote about this happening this time last year). This has occurred not only because of the key factor that most mining companies can’t replenish reserves fast enough but also due to the fact that profits rose sharply while debt levels tumbled.

Before anyone breaks out the caviar and champagne for the good old boys, just look at some of the factors facing them going forward:

- You wouldn’t know it after you walk the floor of a typical metals and mining show, but there still are not enough big discoveries to make up for the fall in mine supply while demand grows.
- Miners are facing increased desires for more of the pie from stakeholders such as governments, contractors and employees. The government angle is especially scary. I believe only Canada and the U.S. states of Nevada and Alaska offer mining companies real peace. Yes, some areas of the world look dangerous now like Venezuela, Bolivia, Indonesia and the like, but even the upcoming vote in Mexico could change one of the best and most miner-friendly countries into a place of concern (we need to see the results of the Mexican election before even becoming remotely concerned).
- Equipment and labor shortages still affect the mining industry. While mining trucks are coming off the production line as fast as they can be built, shortages still linger. I’ve seen mine production impacted by a shortage of truck tires. Be careful when a company says they plan on drilling because getting an actual drill is no easy task nor having skilled labor to drill, develop and produce ore.
- While the mining sector has started talks with social and environmental activists on a “green” code for the industry, make no mistake about it, the two sides fiercely oppose each other. I would sooner cheer for the opposing team at a Philadelphia Eagles game and believe no arguments or fighter would break out, than count on the environmentalists to be warm and fuzzy to miners.
- Hedgefunds have also impacted the mining industry and could make my bearish argument for base metals a poor one. Phelps Dodge is an example: they use what is called “risk minimizing hedges” at prices of $1.20 or less. Hedgefunds used this as a free shot to bid up copper prices without fear of being swamped by producers selling aggressively into the market because they had enough production to back up their forward sales. This overwhelmed all speculators who stood in their way. Phelps Dodge took a $250 million hit by mark-to-market Rule 133. At a recent meeting of the Society of Economic Geologists, the mining industry was outspoken about their fears of what hedgefunds may be doing to their financial operations.

Don’t assume that a metal price going up automatically translates into a mining company stock doing better. There are many factors influencing the miners that weren’t around (or weren’t acute) in the past bull markets.

It’s been my feeling that the junior resource market is likely to have a good run in the second half of 2006. I think the next 30-60 days is a period of accumulation and a good run up in the juniors should unfold as Fall arrives. But as always, selectivity will be key (more on this in future issues).

Editor’s Note:

Subscribership

Our subscriber base has more than doubled in the last 90 days. I’m honored that so many people feel I’m worthy of their precious time. Unfortunately, there is a very small minority of you who feel some sort of loyalty or obligation to engage posters on the Internet who choose to speak of me and what I do in an unfavorable light. I very much appreciate your gestures to defend me but again ask you not to take such a role. I’m truly not concerned in the least of what these people have to say. I try to leave my spiritual life out of Grandich Publications because people want to read about my market thoughts, not religious. However, it must be told that I truly only care what my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, thinks about me. I’m not implying in any way a need for you to be a believer in Christ – just want to emphasize that HIS is the only opinions I care about. PLEASE don’t engage yourself on the Internet regarding me with some party or parties who in your mind are speaking ill if me. These folks never make their claims to me directly despite every opportunity to do so.

I want to end this discussion on these Internet posters by sharing with you two real-life experiences I was a part of that help me realize never to engage these people. In my other business, I’m very involved with professional athletes and their personal lives. In one instance, I was sitting in the stadium next to a “fan” who was “mouthing off” to a player in a rather nasty fashion. I knew this player personally but remained mostly silent because there’s nothing you can really do that is going to change such a person’s actions. Ironically, the player’s team hosted a gathering later that evening where my friend the player was part of the meet and greet team to the invited guests. And who do I see on the line to meet the players and get stuff signed but this fan that was bad-mouthing the player. I was able to tell the player about it and point out the fan before he approached. When he arrived, he began to tell the player how great he was and then asked for an autograph. Earlier in the stands, this person repeatedly yelled a particular adjective to describe the player. The player signed the autograph with that adjective. When the “fan” looked down and saw what he wrote, he turned white, embarrassed and couldn’t get down the line fast enough.

I tell you that story to point out that these “fans” of mine on the Internet have never in my more than 22 years made their claims and accusations directly to me, other than on the Internet or in an email that never identifies them. However, I know in my heart they are among the crowd at shows but linger in the back versus at least giving me a chance to face my so-called accusers. Those who won’t back up their words with at least a name or face are not worthy of my concern.

The other quick professional athlete story is about the great gift and honor I have to be around household names in the sports world. At a recent Bible study with some members of a team known around the world, we began to discuss some of the things fans say and do. I asked one of the team’s marquee players how he handles the abuse. His response is now etched in my mind whenever someone writes or calls to tell me about some negative comment made about me. He said, “I realize I’m on the playing field and the other party is in the stands. I also realize that ‘but by the Grace of God go I’.” I’ve adopted that attitude so don’t worry about me from now on – okay?

One more note on our increased readership: As a result of the huge increase in subscribers, I can’t possibly response to individual phone calls anymore and most emails so please don’t be offended. I’m not avoiding it and I try to take into consideration your questions when I publish alerts and newsletters.

Vacation

I will be on my first summer vacation in seven years. I will return on July 17th .

GRANDICH PUBLICATIONS, LLC.
P.O. Box 243 o Perrineville, NJ 08535
www.Grandich.com
phone o 732-642-3992
email • Peter@Grandich.co

http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/jul032006.html

mama mia

04.07.2006, 23:24

Simple profits on the GLD

Jack Chan
www.simplyprofits.org (http://www.simplyprofits.org/)
Jul 4, 2006

Note: I'm no longer affiliated with www.traderscorporation.com

Keeping it simple is easier said than done. But over the years, I've learned to achieve simplicity by necessity. Managing a portfolio of stocks is almost a full time job, and unless you are a good stock picker, your overall return on stocks may very well under perform the ETFs and funds.

One of the best trading vehicles right now is the GLD. It is very liquid, excellent daily volume, and simple to execute. There is a lot of new attention in the past few months with gold reaching over $700, and this attracts many newcomers, thus providing more trading opportunity due to increased volatility.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan070406/1.gif Our trading model gave us a buy signal in March, which resulted in a 24% return. Then the sell signal in May prompted us to short GLD with a 13% return. Today (6/29) we had a buy signal and we are long again at $59.52, risking under 3% if support fails and we need to exit.

Therefore, we have made 37% profit in six months which is excellent in our books. What I like about GLD is that it has been providing us very decisive entries and exits, and the fact that the chart is very clean and price swings are very orderly. These are near perfect trading conditions, seldomly found in individual stocks.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan070406/2.gif The reason I favor GLD over GDX or gold funds at the moment is what our "breakout model" is indicating. Active traders in the gold sector are familiar with the $HUI:GOLD ratio, but very few look at this ratio from a longer time frame. This breakout model has been very effective in identifying the major breakouts of this bull market, because a major move will not occur until a breakout occurs. Those who have been with us since 2001 recall the huge rally we had in early 2002, then another in 2003, and the most recent from Nov 2005. However, the breakout in Nov 2005 did not lead to a new high in the ratio, and since has pulled back. Therefore, we are now winding up for another possible breakout, or breakdown. But until we have a clear break one way or another, it is best to trade those which near perfect set ups, and currently, GLD fits the bill.

In the event of a breakout, then ETFs such as XGD.TO and GDX would be a better choice because they will outperform GLD. Conversely, if we have a breakdown, shorting the ETFs would be more profitable than shorting the GLD.

Summary

One of the great benefits being in the advisory business is the opportunity to communicate with thousands of traders/investors every year. Unfortunately, many market participants focus on the wrong "W", thus lead to poor returns and in many cases, losses. The three "W"s are when, what, and why.

In sector timing, we are concerned first with "when". Precise entry and exit to the markets with manageable risk.

Then we pay attention to "what", by picking the best set up among the ETFs and funds.

As to "why" - we don't really care.

End of report.

Jack Chan
Note: I'm no longer affiliated with www.traderscorporation.com.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan070406.html

mama mia

04.07.2006, 23:26

Gold versus Other Markets

Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Jul 4, 2006

Below is an extract from a commentary at www.speculative-investor.com (http://www.speculative-investor.com/) on 15th June 2006.

When the yield-spread is widening, that is, when short-term interest rates are falling relative to long-term interest rates, it typically means one or more of the following:

1. The Fed is aggressively pushing short-term interest rates lower in response to economic weakness or the market is anticipating aggressive monetary easing by the Fed in response to a weakening economy. This was the situation between the final quarter of 2000 and the third quarter of 2003.

2. Short-term interest rates are rising, but long-term interest rates are rising at a faster pace because the market fears that the Fed is not doing enough to quell a growing inflation problem. This was the situation during much of the 1970s.

A substantial widening of the yield-spread will often be accompanied by widening credit spreads, contracting financial liquidity and a general increase in risk aversion.

On the other hand, when the yield-spread is falling, that is, when short-term interest rates are rising relative to long-term interest rates, it typically means that: a) the Fed is hiking short-term interest rates at a fast enough pace to maintain downward pressure on inflation expectations, and/or b) there is strong/rising demand for short-term money in order finance various speculations. Both a) and b) describe the situation over the past 2.5 years.

A substantial contraction of the yield-spread will often be accompanied by falling credit spreads and expanding financial liquidity as investors/speculators take-on more risk in an attempt to maximise their returns.

Those who understand the monetary nature of gold will realise that the sort of financial backdrop normally associated with a widening yield-spread is conducive to strength in the gold price whereas the sort of financial backdrop normally associated with a contracting yield-spread is not one in which gold is likely to do well. However, gold did extremely well during the 12-month period ended 11th May of this year while the yield-spread contracted in relentless fashion. It seems, therefore, that gold was somehow able to ignore an unfavourable interest rate backdrop during this period.

The apparent inconsistency in gold's performance can be explained. The interest rate backdrop might have been downright unfriendly for gold between May of 2005 and May of 2006, but in this particular case the deluge of liquidity created by the actions of foreign (non-US) central banks and hedge funds swamped all other forces and enabled the gold price to rally in terms of the fiat currencies. However, the adverse effect on gold of the contracting yield-spread can be seen by looking at how the monetary metal performed relative to other metals. As illustrated by the following chart, gold has been trending lower relative to the GYX (the Industrial Metals Index) since the Q3-2003 peak in the yield-spread and effectively crashed relative to the GYX between October of last year and early May of this year.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville070406/1.gif We'll now take a quick detour and look at a chart showing how the gold/GYX ratio (gold versus a basket off industrial metals) performed relative to the broad US stock market over the past 6 years. A strong inverse correlation between gold/GYX and the S&P500 Index is obvious on the following chart. Clearly, gold has done relatively well when the broad stock market has been trending lower and relatively poorly when the broad stock market has been trending higher. This is exactly what we'd expect from the monetary metal.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville070406/2.gif Now, some of our current expectations are:

1. The broad stock market is about two months into a downturn that will last 6-12 months.

2. The US economy is slowing and will likely shift into reverse later this year in response to the cyclical bear market in real estate and a general contraction in liquidity.

3. As a result of 1) and 2) above, the Fed will soon end its rate-hiking campaign and will be cutting rates by the final quarter of this year.

4. As a result of 1), 2) and 3) above, the yield-spread will soon experience a major upward trend reversal.

That is, we are expecting the financial backdrop to soon become very favourable for gold, leading to a period in which gold makes substantial gains relative to all other metals as well as fiat currencies. Therefore, although the initial setbacks in global equity markets and the industrial metals have predictably been accompanied by a sharp decline in the gold price, it is important to keep in mind that what's happening now is setting the stage for gold to rally against almost everything.

Steve Saville
http://www.321gold.com/ads/smallsaville.gif (http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html?321gold)email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Hong Kong

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville070406.html

mama mia

05.07.2006, 08:56

Japan to Raise Interest Rates - Gold Chris Laird
www.PrudentSquirrel.com (http://www.prudentsquirrel.com/)
Jul 4, 2006

Practically the whole world is raising interest rates in tandem. Now, the final big economy is going to raise- Japan. Generally speaking gold finds rising interest rates a suppressive force. This move by Japan could :rolleyes hit gold hard next week.

The EU is talking about another interest hike. China, the US, and about 22 nations in all are raising interest rates in tandem, or are pulling liquidity out of their banking systems.

The big two are the US and Japan. The combined size of the USD universe and the Yen universe make up the vast majority of the money in the world. Hence their interest rate moves greatly affect the world economy, financial markets - and gold.

This is a major sea change from the recent past. Japan flooded the world with cheap money right after their market crashes in the early 1990's. Their real estate and stock markets tanked then. Since then, the Yen carry trade has just exploded, and that money has found its way into every major financial market.

The Yen carry trade is where investors borrow Yen very cheap, then invest that for a nice yield gain in US treasury bonds, for example. The net gain is about 3% over what it costs to borrow the Yen from Japan.

The Yen carry trade also spills into all major financial markets as well, as investors borrow Yen cheap and speculate with the money. The BOJ and the EU central bank have stated publicly that they are concerned about the effect of raising interest rates on this Yen carry trade. If Japanese rates are raised, investors counting on the yield gain of the Yen carry trade will start liquidating those positions.

The trouble is that the Yen carry trade has been allowed to go on for so long, that there are literally trillions of dollar value of borrowed Yen out. These borrowed Yen are going to eventually be liquidated back out of the markets they were invested in. The ultimate pace of that liquidation will depend on how fast Japan raises.

I suspect that the gold market is going to find this Japanese move gold suppressive. First, the Japanese are gold friendly culturally. But if Japan raises rates, Japanese investors will find gold less attractive. The last time there was major news of changes in Japanese interest rates (the possibility of them rising) gold tanked about 30 bucks. That was when gold was under $500 last Fall.

The other reason raising Japanese rates would suppress gold is that there could be general market liquidation from unwinding the Yen carry trade, and I suspect that some of this has found its way into the gold/precious metals markets. Hedge fund speculation would figure here.

I have noticed that recently, financial markets are trending in tandem up and down with gold. This is somewhat unusual because normally gold and financial markets move inversely.

Last week, when the Fed indicated it may consider pausing US interest rate hikes, the world stock markets rose quite a bit, and gold rose about 27$ on Friday. No doubt, a big part of why gold rose last Friday was the possibility that the US would pause hiking. Gold has found rising US interest rates quite suppressive.

Normally, if the Fed raises, gold finds this suppressive. I would expect that, if Japan indeed raises interest rates next week, gold could drop as much as 30 to 50$. Remember, Japan and the US are the Big Two of easy money. Any tightening by either has a huge effect on precious metals.

The main issue here is not the likely minute size of the interest hike from Japan as much as it is indicating a sea change for Japanese interest rates. The sea change is what will cause the gold reaction. IF Japan were to decidedly join the interest rate hikes across the world, then the last major economy that was not raising will now have changed direction.

I expect the BOJ to use baby-baby steps. I am sure they are quite aware of the danger of unwinding the Yen carry trade too fast. The last time that happened, there was the '97 Asian financial crisis. Unexpected unwinding of the Yen carry trade amidst the market turmoil then caused financial panics and market liquidations across Asia. That episode is one reason China is so reticent to change their quasi USD link to the Yuan-RMB. That link was strengthened greatly in the aftermath of that crisis to protect the Yuan-RMB from further episodes of instability.

Likely sizes of the first increase by Japan are 10 to 20 basis points. (.10 to .20 %).

Another important issue is that the vast majority of the derivatives market is interest rate swaps. That segment is over 70% of the derivatives market which is over $400 trillion in size. Since practically the entire world is now raising interest rates in tandem, and now Japan is finally going to raise, I would definitely be on crash alert for markets due to both the imminent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and the pressure a rising world interest rate environment is putting on derivatives.

Chris Laird
Editor in Chief
website: www.PrudentSquirrel.com (http://www.prudentsquirrel.com/)
email: editor@PrudentSquirrel.com

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/laird/laird070406.html

...na hoffentlich nicht :cool:o

mama mia

05.07.2006, 13:35

Gold hits one-month high missile test
Wed Jul 5, 2006 11:19 AM BST

By Atul Prakash

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold climbed to a one-month high on Wednesday on safe-haven buying after North Korea test-launched several missiles, before a rise in the dollar pared gains.

Dealers said the market was expected to trade in a broad range, with the U.S. market re-opening on Wednesday after the Independence Day holiday this week.

"It (the missiles test) encouraged some speculative activity and the market could have some steady momentum upwards," said John Meyer, analyst at Numis Securities in London.
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-07-05T101856Z_01_L05464809_RTRUKOC_0_UK-MARKETS-PRECIOUS.xml&src=rss

mama mia

05.07.2006, 21:06

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/logo.png

Gold und Zettelwährungen

Veröffentlich am 05.07.2006 09:42 Uhr von Walter K. Eichelburg (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=51)

Die Zeit der puren Fiat-Money / "schuldengedeckten" Papiergeld-Währungen geht bald zu Ende. Schon heute kann das System nur mehr mit Mühe aufrechterhalten werden. Die Frage ist - was kommt dann? Ein neuer Goldstandard? Neue Papierwährungen? "Regionalgelder"? Dieser Artikel geht darauf ein.

Auf die kritische Situation des internationalen Finanzsystems muss nicht extra eingegangen werden. Das haben andere Autoren und ich schon ausführlich dargelegt.

Hier nur ein Beispiel: "Ominous Warnings And Dire Predictions Of World`s Financial Experts" von Dudley Baker: Part 1 (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/baker/2006/0227.html), Part 2 (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/baker/2006/0321.html), Part 3 (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/baker/2006/0601.html). Hier einige Artikel von Chris Laird (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/archive.html): "Final Days Of US-Dollar (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0426.html)", "What Would Happen If The US-Dollar Collapsed (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0624.html)".

Das Hauptproblem ist, dass hinter praktisch allen Währungen dieser Welt nur Schulden in einem gigantischen Ausmaß stehen. Die "Währungsreserven" der Zentralbanken sind meist US-Dollar Anleihen. Geht der Dollar unter, gehen somit alle anderen Währungen auch unter, da sie durch ihre Dollar-Reserven Derivate des US-Dollars sind. Gold als Währungsreserve ist real nur mehr minimal vorhanden. Der Großteil wurde verkauft oder verleast.

Was kommt nach dem Dollar?

Das heutige Hauptproblem ist der US-Dollar als Welt-Reservewährung und auch Rohstoffwährung. Öl und andere Rohstoffe werden derzeit ausschließlich in USD notiert und großteils auch damit bezahlt. Nur, ein Staat kann nicht wie die USA unbegrenzt ein Außenhandels-Defizit von 7% des Brutto-Sozial*produkts aufrecht erhalten. Die übliche Grenze, wo eine Währung abverkauft wird, liegt bei etwa 5%.

Man könnte auch sagen, die "schlauen" Amerikaner, haben das so geschickt eingefädelt, dass der USD statt früher Gold jetzt Welt-Reservewährung ist. Schert ein Öl-Land aus der Dollar-Front aus, wie der Irak und verlangt für sein Öl eine andere Währung, dann wird es angegriffen. Derzeit ist der Iran "widerspenstig". Der mögliche Atomwaffenbau des Irans ist wahrscheinlich nicht der Hauptgrund für eine mögliche US-Attacke. Jedoch ist der Irak-Krieg für die Amerikaner inzwischen durch eigene Unfähigkeit verloren gegangen und Russland will ab 1. Juli 2006 sein Öl gegen Rubel verkaufen. Die Zeiten ändern sich.

Damit ist es klar, dass der US-Dollar nicht auf ewige Zeit Welt-Reservewährung bleiben wird. Derzeit wir er noch von Europa und Japan/Asien sowie den Ölländern gestützt - wie lange noch?

Laut Eckart Woertz ist der Dollar " finanzieller radioaktiver Abfall (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/woertz/woertz062906.html)", hat aber ein großes Volumen. Niemand will den 1. Schritt machen und seine Dollars abstoßen - bis jetzt. Schweden und Russland haben es schon teilweise gemacht.

Aber was kommt als Welt-Reserve-Währung?

Es gibt mehrere Kandidaten dafür. Ich möchte sie hier beleuchten:

a.) Euro: hat auch großes, aber kleineres Volumen als der Dollar, könnte daher diese Rolle bedingt übernehmen. Jedoch ist er auch nur Papiergeld mit den selben Problemen wie der USD, hat aber einen Außenhandels-Überschuss. Darüberhinaus verbindet er leider heterogene Länder, was zum Zerreißen in einer Krisensituation führen wird. Kaum geeignet als Dollar-Nachfolger.
b.) Japanischer Yen: Volumen ist kleiner als bei USD und Euro. Dagegen spricht, dass Japan keine besonders große Rolle in der Welt spielt (militärisch, politisch) sowie die enorme interne Staatsverschuldung in Japan.
c.) Chinesischer Yuan: China ist zur Industrie- und Export-Großmacht geworden. Auch das Volumen ist mit 1.5 Mrd. Menschen groß. Jedoch ist der Yuan derzeit nicht konvertibel und das chinesische Bankensystem ist total marode. Der Yuan scheidet daher derzeit aus.http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2850_1.jpg
d.) Schweizer Franken, Britisches Pfund, etc: Der Schweizer Franken (SFR) war immer schon eine Fluchtwährung, jedoch ist sein Volumen viel zu gering, um eine Welt-Reservewährung zu spielen. Die Stabilität des SFR ist auch nicht mehr das, was sie einmal war, weil er synchron mit dem Euro abwertet. Die frühere Welt-Reservewährung Britisches Pfund hat die selben Probleme wie der US-Dollar: extreme In- und Auslandsverschuldung. Daher ungeeignet.
e.) Gold: diese älteste aller Währungen hat zusammen mit Silber einige entscheidende Vorteile gegenüber allen Papierwährungen: es stehen keine Schulden dahinter und sie wird überall akzeptiert. Daher wird Gold wieder seine alte Rolle als Welt-Reservewährung einnehmen. Beim heutigen Goldpreis ist das Aufnahme-Volumen viel zu klein, wenn sich der Preis aber verzehnfacht, sieht die Sache schon besser aus.

Also, sobald die Inflation zu groß wird oder die Finanzmärkte einbrechen und die Anleihen (Bonds) reihenweise platzen, wird eine internationale Flucht in das Gold einsetzen. Sie ist eigentlich schon im Gang, besonders in Asien und im arabischen Raum (privat). Im April 2006 hat der Dollar-Abverkauf mit gleichzeitigem Goldpreis-Anstieg schon begonnen. Das wurde aber im Mai durch massive Goldpreis-Drückung durch die Zentralbanken und einige andere Tricks gestoppt. Die Amerikaner (Fonds) haben massiv Geld von allen Auslandsmärkten "heimgeholt", was dem Dollar-Kurs gut getan hat. Solche Methoden funktionieren aber nicht ewig.

"Freigelder"

Besonders in Deutschland gibt es verschiedene "Gesellianer" oder "Freigeld"-Anhänger. Gründer dieser Lehre war der militante Vegetarier und das Regierungs-Mitglied der kommunistischen "Räterepublik" in München 1919, Silvio Gesell (http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Gesell). Er war selbst ein Spekulant (in Argentinien) und wurde später von einem reichen "Gönner" erhalten - wie Karl Marx.

Diese propagieren ihre Zettelwährungen als Universallösung für alle Probleme unserer hochverschuldeten Papier-Währungssysteme. Diese Zettel kommen als "Rheingold", "Gogo", "Berliner Wert-Gutschein", "Waldviertler" und mit ähnlichen Namen.

Tatsache ist, dass solche Zettelwährungen meist von lokalen oder regionalen Regierungen ausgegeben werden, nachdem diese pleite gegangen sind. Beispiele sind verschiedene solche "Währungen" in der Zeit der deutschen Hyperinflation 1922/23, das Geldexperiment von Wörgl 1932, die Regionalwährungen in Argentinien 2002 wie der "Patagonia".

Damit werden dann die Beamten und Lieferanten bezahlt.

Das Hauptproblem aller dieser "Initiativen" ist: sie denken nur national oder regional. Außerhalb der Region werden diese Zettel natürlich überhaupt nicht akzeptiert und innerhalb nur von denjenigen Geschäftsleuten, die sonst überhaupt nichts verkaufen würden. Es hilft, wenn damit die lokalen Steuern bezahlt werden können.

Die Motivation der Proponenten solcher Zettelgelder:

selbst eine wichtige Position in diesem System einnehmen - Karrieremotiv
die utopische Idee, die Welt vom "Zinswucher" zu befreien
eine "linke" Alternative zu den "kapitalischen" heutigen Währungen

Allein schon der Name "Freigeld" zeigt, dass es sich um eine linke Idee handelt, hinter der natürlich staatlicher Zwang stehen muss. Die Linken und Kommunisten haben immer schon die Begriffe in ihr Gegenteil verdreht, warum soll es hier anders sein.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2850_2.jpgMan denke nur an die französische Revolution mit ihren "Assignats", auch ein Papiergeld, das hemmungslos gedruckt wurde. Zur Durchsetzung wurde die Guillotine erfunden, denn man musste so viele Todesurteile wegen Nichtakzeptanz dieser Zettel vollstecken. Bis Napoleon Bonaparte gekommen ist, und gesagt hat: "Ich bezahle in Gold oder überhaupt nicht".

Hier ein Artikel von Don Stott (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/stott071504.html) darüber. Hier etwas vom Mises Institiut (http://www.mises.org/story/1504) - geht auf den Terror zur Durchsetzung des Assignat-Zettelgeldes ein. Hier eine ausgezeichnete, lange Studie: Fiat Money Inflation in France (http://onlinebooks.library.upenn.edu/webbin/gutbook/lookup?num=6949). Die Zettel sind natürlich primär bei der Unterschicht gelandet.

Alle Anhänger solcher Geldutopien sollten wissen, dass sie selbst Henker werden, um solche Zettel durchzusetzen, und ohne extremen staatlichen Zwang geht es nicht.

Von den Proponenten solcher Zettelgelder wird immer das Beispiel der Gemeinde Wörgl in Tirol genannt. Im Elliot Wave-Forum ist ein guter Beitrag über dieses Experiment: (http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/247356.htm)http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/247356.htm (http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/247356.htm%3C/a%3E.).[/url]

Diese Zettel (Arbeitswertscheine) wurden von der bankrotten Gemeinde Wörgl 1932 ausgegeben und 1933 von der Österreichischen Nationalbank gestoppt. Gerade rechtzeitig, sonst wären diese Zettel in die Hyperinflation übergegangen, nachdem die Steuerforderungen der Gemeinde, die damit bezahlt werden konnten, verbraucht waren. Die Gemeinde war natürlich auch nachher bankrott, denn ihre eigenen Schulden konnte sie damit nicht bezahlen - sie wurden selbstverständlich außerhalb Wörgls nicht genommen. Es ist ein kurzzeitige inflationäre Bubble entstanden. Es war Betrug.

Wer nimmt diese Zettel?

Wie schon das Wörgl-Experiment gezeigt hat, wurden diese Gutscheine von lokalen Gewerbe*treibenden nur genommen, da sie damit ihre eigenen Steuerschulden bezahlen konnten.

Auf jeden Fall werden solche Zettel nur lokal im Bereich der ausgebenden Behörde akzeptiert, die dort ihre Macht hat - wenn überhaupt. Im schlimmsten Fall, wie bei der französischen Revolution ist dazu die Guillotine erforderlich.

Ich habe selbst vor einiger Zeit einen Vortrag bei einer Veranstaltung gehört, wo mit solchen Zetteln ein "arbeitsloses Grundeinkommen" finanziert werden sollte. Das "Geld" sollte natürlich aus Geldschöpfung = Gelddrucken kommen = Hyperinflation. Nachfragen waren nicht erwünscht.

Eine neue Internationale Währung

Unsere Welt ist ohnehin schon voll mit meist nicht-konvertierbaren Papiergeld-Währungen. Es ist interessant, dass nur wenige davon international zur Bezahlung von Waren oder zur Ausgabe von Bonds (Anleihen) verwendet werden können: USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY.

Alle anderen Währungen werden nicht akzeptiert. Das heißt, die Regierungen können zwar ihre eigenen Staatsbürger dazu zwingen, diese Währungen anzunehmen, aber nicht das Ausland. Die USA haben bis jetzt mit ihrer großen Militärmacht dafür gesorgt, dass der USD international akzeptiert wurde. Aber auch das geht jetzt zu Ende.

Die USA betrachten also die ganze Welt als ihr Währungs-Inland, das die Dollars akzeptieren muss, besonders für Öl. Wenn nicht, dann ergeht es einem so wie dem Irak, der ab Ende 2000 sein Öl in Euro verkaufte. Der Irak-Krieg wurde primär wegen des Petro-Dollars (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2006/0120.html) geführt, nicht um das Öl selbst.

Mit dem Abzug der US-Truppen aus dem Irak, der offenbar jetzt beginnt, wird diese "Zwangs*maßnahme" wegfallen. Damit bleibt nur mehr die Erhaltung des US-Importmarkts, das eine Dollarhortung speziell im asiatischen Raum noch "sinnvoll" erscheinen läßt. Aber auch hier wird es ein Ende geben. Die Chinesen warnen schon vor zu vielen Dollars und die Japaner verkaufen schon einige ab. Was die Dollar-Hortung vielleicht noch einige Zeit weitergehen läßt, ist die Angst der Regierungen vor ihrem eigenen Sturz in einer Wirtschaftskrise. Aber, jede Lieferanten-Finanzierung geht einmal zu Ende - das war immer so. Die Welt wird sich dann nach einer Alternative zum US-Dollar als Reservewährung umsehen müssen, denn die meisten Alternativen überzeugen wie oben gezeigt, nicht.

Die Stunde des Goldes

Gold war schon vor 100 Jahren Weltreserve-Währung, erst 1944 wurde mit dem Bretton-Woods-Abkommen der US-Dollar dazu gemacht. Außer den USA hatte fast niemand Gold.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2850_3.pngIn meinem Artikel "Gold und Dominanz (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2673)" bin ich bereits auf eine Remonetisierung von Gold eingegangen. Hier möchte ich einen solchen Übergang präzisieren...

Irgendwann wird der große US-Dollar-Abverkauf beginnen. Im April 2006 hat es schon Anzeichen darauf gegeben. Das führt in den USA zu explodierenden Zinsen und Preisen, was die Wirtschaft kollabieren läßt. Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke wird wohl dann die abverkauften Bonds mit neuem, aus dem Nichts erzeugten Geld aufkaufen (monetisieren), was eine Hyperinflation verursacht -> Das Helikopter-Geld.

Hier einige Bücher dazu:
- Richard Duncan: "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470821027/sr=8-10/qid=1151493852/ref=sr_1_10/103-8887544-7566244?ie=UTF8)"
- James Turk, John Rubino: The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0385512236/sr=8-1/qid=1151493852/ref=pd_bbs_1/103-8887544-7566244?ie=UTF8)"
- in deutscher Übersetzung: "Der Untergang einer Weltwährung (http://www.goldseiten.de/shop/buch.php?b_id=33)"

Zuerst verschwindet die Akzeptanz im internationalen Handel und bei internationalen Finanzierungen. Es ist kein Wunder, dass "Bananenrepubliken" ihre Importe in "harter Währung" bezahlen müssen, die USA werden also eine "Bananenrepublik". Das Geld wird vorerst einmal in den Euro und andere Währungen flüchten, jedoch die internen Spannungen und die einbrechenden Exporte werden den Euro zerreissen und eine Flucht auch daraus auslösen. Als einzige Alternative bleibt dann Gold.

Alan Greenspan’s "Extremis" ist dann eingetreten:

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.
It"s interesting that Germany could buy materials during the war only with gold."
"In extremis fiat money is accepted by nobody and gold is always accepted and is the ultimate means of payment."

Übersetzung: "Gold ist weiterhin die ultimative Form der Bezahlung.
Es ist interessant, dass Deutschland während des Krieges Materialien nur mit Gold kaufen konnte."
"Im Extremfall wird Papiergeld von niemandem akzeptiert und Gold wird immer akzeptiert und ist daher die ultimative Form der Bezahlung."

Damit wird wohl Gold für internationale Zahlungen verwendet werden müssen. Allerdings zu einem viel höheren Preis als heute. Man sollte einen Preis von 10.000 $/oz oder mehr annehmen. Silber wird hier weniger Rolle spielen, da es weniger davon gibt und das Volumen/Gewicht zu groß ist.

Übrigens, die Infrastruktur für den elektronischen Gold-Austausch gibt es schon: www.goldmoney.com (http://www.goldmoney.com/).

Ein neuer Goldstandard

Das war der 1. Schritt. Denn wenn Dollar und Euro international nicht mehr genommen werden, muss es eine Alternative geben. Und die kann nur das Gold sein, hinter dem keine Schulden stehen und das eine 3000jährige Tradition als Geld hat.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2850_4.jpgDer 2. Schritt ist natürlich, dass Gold auch im Binnenhandel verlangt werden wird. Dazu braucht man dann viel Gold im Finanzsystem. Die meisten Staaten mit ihren Papiergeldern werden dann bankrott gehen und die Papiergelder ihren Wert verlieren und nicht mehr genommen werden.

Man sollte nicht vergessen, wenn die Legitimität des Staats verloren geht, dann geht auch die Legitimität des staatlichen Geldes (Legal Tender) verloren. Wenn der Goldpreis rasch um das 10-fache steigt, dann können nur entsprechend hohe Zinsen wie 1980 versuchen, das Kapital wieder zurückholen. Nur führen solche Zinsen heute zum sofortigen Kollaps und Staatsbankrott. Laut Bill Buckler (www.the-privateer.com (http://www.the-privateer.com/)) müssten die Zinsen heute ein Mehrfaches der Zinsen von 1980 ausmachen - wegen der hohen Verschuldung und dem damit verbundenen Risiko. Das wären dann etwa 50% in den USA und 40% im Euro-Raum.

Ein neues Goldverbot?

Der einfachste Weg für die Regierungen wäre natürlich wie in den 30er Jahren in Hitler-Deutschland oder Roosevelt-Amerika den privaten Goldbesitz einzuziehen und damit ein neues, goldgedecktes Finanzsystem aufzubauen. Jedoch wird das diesmal aus verschiedensten Gründen nicht so leicht sein.

Der Hauptgrund dafür ist: das Gold ist entweder in ausländischem Besitz (Asien, arabische Länder) oder bei "Experten" im Inland, aber nicht mehr bei der "staatsgläubigen" Bevölkerung. Die Experten haben natürlich dagegen schon vorgesorgt. Ich habe darüber schon in "Das Goldverbot - ist im Kopf (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/artikel.php?storyid=2040)" geschrieben. Daher versucht man ja auch durch psychologische Tricks und Preisdrückung, die Leute vom Gold fernzuhalten. Laut Jim Puplava (http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2006/0624.html) müsste vor einem Goldverbot eine Dämonisierung des Goldbesitzes (als Terroristen?) einsetzen, um es politisch akzeptabel zu machen. Daran kann man ein drohendes Goldverbot wahrscheinlich erkennen.

Also, wie kommt ein neues Finanzsystem zu Gold?

Es gibt dafür mehrere Wege:

Man kann es sich gegen Zinsen leihen - meist im Ausland
Man kann es durch Asset-Verkäufe (Immobilien, Firmen) erwerben. Die Banken werden dann genügend Immobilien und Firmen zum Verkauf haben

Beides geht natürlich nur dann, wenn die Rechtsverhältnisse einigermassen stabil sind und kein Goldverbot herrscht. Sonst bleibt das Gold entweder "unter der Erde" oder im Ausland. Allein diese Tatsache macht ein zukünftiges Goldverbot wenig wahrscheinlich, aber Politkern kann man in Zwangslagen jeden Unsinn zutrauen.

Sehen Sie dazu auch den Artikel "Gold und Dominanz (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2673)".

Was ist die Alternative?

Wenn in einem solchen Fall kein neues, goldgedeckten Finanzsystem aufgebaut wird, so führt das zur Hyperinflation und Sturz der Regierung. Es gibt verschiedene Beispiele, wo auch viele Jahre nach dem Ende einer Hyperinflation wertvolle Dinge wie Immobilien nur gegen US-Dollars oder Euros verkauft wurden. Beispiele sind Israel und Serbien.

Im Inland kann eine Regierung noch für einige Zeit eine hyperinflationierende Währung gegenüber Abhängigen (Staatsbediensteten, etc.) durchsetzen, jedoch im Ausland und bei allen, die die Wahl haben, funktioniert das nicht.

Silber:

Der Preis für Gold wird so stark steigen, dass sich nur mehr wenige Leute Gold leisten werden können. Denn wenn die Massenflucht in die Edelmetalle beginnt, werden die Massen natürlich die letzten sein und die höchsten Preise in Papiergeld bezahlen.

Nehmen wir einmal den konservativen Fall eines Goldpreises von 10.000 $/oz zur heutigen Kaufkraft an: das ergibt 320.000 $/kg oder 256.000 €/kg = 256 €/g. Die kleinste Goldmünze mit 3,1 g (1/10 oz) kostet dann (ohne Aufschlag) 793,60 €, also fast 800 €. Eine 1 oz Münze mit nur 31 g kostet dann ca. 8.000 €.

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/eichelburg-2850_5.jpgAlso, für die Masse bleibt aus Preisgründen nur Silber ("Poor Man’s Gold"). Dieses wird dann wahrscheinlich in einem Preisverhältnis von etwa 1:10 zu Gold stehen. Ein kg Silber sollte dann etwa 25.600 USD kosten (1.000 US/oz). Eine frühere österreichiche 10 Schilling-Münze (bis 1973) mit 4,8 g Silber darin liegt dann bei etwa 123 €. Heute kostet diese Münze ca. 1,27 € (bei derzeit 265 €/kg). Für diese Münze wurden 1980 schon 77 Schilling bezahlt, also 5,60 €. Damals konnte das System noch gerettet werden und das allgemeine Preisniveau war viel niedriger.

Jason Hommel sieht in "Future Gold & Silver Prices (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommel122205.html)" viel höhere Preise, etwa 40.000 $/oz für Gold. Der reale Wert der Währungen wird dann natürlich wesentlich niedriger sein. Die Entwicklung wird sicher nicht so linear verlaufen, wie in seinen Grafiken angenommen, sondern schubweise und schneller.

Heute sind Anlagegüter (Assets = Papierwerte) wie Aktien, Anleihen, Immobilien wegen der künstlich niedrigen Zinsen total überteuert. Gold und Silber werden gegenüber diesen extrem steigen. Gegenüber Lebensmitteln und Energie natürlich um viel weniger.

Also: Wer das Gold besitzt, wird in Zukunft die Regeln machen. (alte Weisheit)

Gold und Silber werden die Rettungsboote sein, die dann jeder haben will. Sorry, nur für wenige gibt es Plätze und zum günstigen Preis auch nur Heute.

Für unsere "Eliten (http://www.hartgeld.com/filesadmin/pdf/Art_2006-21_PapiertigerIlluminati.pdf)" sind die derzeitigen Positionen wichtiger als die Zukunft. Sonst würden sie nicht das Zentralbank-Gold verkaufen und die Industrie nach Asien und Osteuropa auslagern.

© Walter K. Eichelburg
walter@eichelburg.com, www.hartgeld.com (http://www.hartgeld.com/)

http://www.goldseiten.de/modules/news/print.php?storyid=2850

:schwitzob's denn so kommt :confused man darf einfach die Macht gewisser Kreise nicht unter-, natürlich auch nicht überschätzen :rolleyes treffen wird's wohl wie immer den "kleinen Mann" :mad oder :confused:rolleyes so schnell wird die Welt sich nicht ändern :o drehen wird sich sich (hoffentlich) noch ein Weilchen ;):cool

mama mia

05.07.2006, 22:32

mama mia

06.07.2006, 17:08

The UAE's Golden HEAD-FAKE

Alex Wallenwein
Jul 6, 2006

On July 3, 2006, the United Arab Emirate's Bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, governor of the Emirates' central bank, announced officially that the UAE "may buy gold very soon."

This statement has been hailed in the gold investment world as a sure sign that gold will likely climb from here on forward, as the added demand together with the public announcement will drive up the price of gold.

There is no question that this might indeed happen, at least initially. However, there is a very good chance this was only a head-fake designed to trap unwary gold bugs in the near-invisible net of our domestic gang of global planners and financiers.

For example, take this statement from "Mr. Al" as we shall call him here for brevity's sake:

"I don't think it is appropriate to buy gold now - it is too expensive. The appropriate time might come very soon. We could go up to 10 per cent."

Assuming we can take Mr. Al's word for it, the first and most obvious conclusion anyone can draw from this is that he expects gold to fall in the near future. He wants to buy, but not now.

This raises a few questions in the astute gold investor's mind:

How does he know the price will drop to afford him the opportunity he seeks?
How will he know when it has dropped far enough, if it does, so that the time will be "right" for him to buy?
Of course, these are questions any investor would ask himself when trying to maximize his profits. But Mr. Al isn't just any investor. He is a highly placed official of an oil-rich Arab country that commands about 23 billion USD in forex reserves - of which he says he will invest up to ten percent. That's 2.3 billion. Chump change in the world of central banking, but a lot of money in a tight market like that of gold.

Here is another question:

If he wants to buy low, why is he announcing his plans? That can only serve to drive up the price of the metal - like the Bank of England's announcement in 1999 - that it would sell half of its gold - dropped the price down to the $250s.

Ordinarily, one would assume he would shut the hell up about his plans and start buying gold quietly so his buying won't drive up the price. He said he would do it gradually. When prices rise, subsequent purchases yield less gold for the same money. That just doesn't make any sense.

However, nobody can call him 'stupid', either. He is obviously a well-educated gentleman. His picture looks like somebody took a CEO of a multinational company and slapped a - whatever you call that thing he's got on his head - on him to make him look like an Arab sheik. [Editor's note: Actually he looks like Larry Laborde (http://www.321gold.com/photos/larry_laborde2.jpg)]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wallenwein/wallenwein070606/misteral.gif I say he looks way more comfortable like this:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wallenwein/wallenwein070606/misteraL2.gif Anyway, in keeping with the tenor of the previous essay, the suspicion presents itself to discerning minds that Mr. Al's announcement may be one of the calculated kind.

Calculated to bring him and his country the most advantage, that is. That means, he has good reason to expect that his much desired buying opportunity will come very soon despite (or maybe because?) of his announcement.

So, let's continue our course of speculation, idle though it may be, and assume that he is a well- connected man, which isn't really that difficult. Well connected to the upper echelons of world finance, that is. We also know that those upper echelons are being run by people inside Goldman Sachs, a company that managed to get its top execs appointed as US Secretaries of the Treasury in two successive administrations while also being allowed to orchestrate the first world-wide IPO of a major communist Chinese bank - the Bank of China. (Could it be that GS is also advising China about its gold purchases?)

If our speculations were on point (by some strange confluence of isolated, sheer coincidences), then Goldman Sachs is actively involved in helping such stalwart 'friends' of the United States as communist China and the Muslin bloc buy US treasury gold at fire sale prices while at the same time making inflation appear tamer than it really is (gold is always regarded as a sure-fire inflation indicator, you know).

The announcement which is the subject of this article may be another case of the same thing.

The announcement by Mr. Al will serve to help drive the price of gold up in the short run. In an - according to him - currently 'trendless' market, that can quickly result in an overbought condition which could then, at the right time, be used to sell gold into the ground again by using the added leverage from the artificially over-billed short-term price hike.

That's when he intends to buy.

Who knows? His buying may end up not being that gradual at all. It may well be a quick, massive move at the 'right price.' That would then serve the added purpose of driving the price back up - after he has replenished his country's depleted gold reserves.

How convenient.

The result? Killing a whole flock of birds with one stone.

So, the trick for gold investors lies in knowing when to get in and when to get out again - before the next engineered price drop comes around. That will be very tricky, indeed.

Many will be suckered into this one as well, just as they have on past occasions.

Only the well-informed, with the right allocation of gold investments and the right kind of advance intelligence will profit from this.

In this crazy day and age, only wild, completely baseless, and unsupported speculation (like that exhibited in this article) has any chance of anticipating the schemes of the movers and shakers of the world of finance. And then, you need to have the good judgment to actually move on it.

When a whole string of groundless, wild speculations starts turning out to be accurate, then you know you're on to something.

So, where is this going?

The idea is to turn gold down as much as possible so that it will end up near the bottom of its five-year uptrend. (Any further than that would be too difficult for 'the powers.' After all, these are not the nineties anymore...)

The bottom of that uptrend channel currently lies near $460 per ounce.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wallenwein/wallenwein070606/1.gif If Mr. Al's friends will actually be able to push gold that low or not remains an open question.

This prospect should not scare you. If it does, might just as well get out of gold and go back to the regular stock markets. There, at least, you can be sure that you will lose your money in the long term. (For some people, there's nothing better than a bit of certainty in their lives, even if it's of the negative type.)

For the gutsier souls out there, there's "gold in them thar hills." The right kind of investment decisions can build up a nice stash of cash that can be to turned back into physical gold at the coming, far lower prices.

But, remember, the "bottom" will be a very pointy one. It will be hard to pick, and it will be harder to commit money at the right time for fear of further drops - and then there can always be more head-fakes on the way. You just have to learn how the central planners of the West think. Once you have developed that skill, you can read them like a book.

Fundamentals still rule, but within the trends they impose there is lots of wriggle room for deranged attempts at micro-managing the world economy. It is those attempts that must be anticipated for individual investors to be safe in this nutty environment.

Got gold?

Alex Wallenwein
Editor, Publisher
subscribe to The EURO VS DOLLAR CURRENCY WAR MONITOR (http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.html)
email: awallenwein@houston.rr.com

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wallenwein/wallenwein070606.html

...man darf das gar nicht genau überdenken - sonst :kotz man nur noch

mama mia

06.07.2006, 17:16

...von de-dithmarscher :verbeug

http://img.sitekreator.com/Designs/FutureTech/Img/85/2/pagetitle.img/text=%22Gold%20and%20Silver%20Equal%20Dow%20at%2015%2C000%22/encoding=%22%22/no_image=1/no_home=1 http://0301.netclime.net/1_5/K/E/N/space.gif Published 7/06/05

Two recent forecasts about the price at which gold will equal the DJIA spurred the Optimist's creative nature, and he wants to share the results with you. As background, the inimitable Richard Russell guesses that gold will rise and the Dow will fall so that their price levels will cross in the 2,000 to 3,000 range. The noted Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips also guesses that the Dow and gold prices could cross at 3,000, but he adds that they might cross at 20,000 in an environment of hyperinflation. With all due respect to both of these illustrious gentlemen, the Optimist hopes that they are far too pessimistic. Since the Optimist has chosen the path of perpetual Pollyanna, he feels a solemn duty to offer a much brighter perspective.

* * * Warning * * * Caution * * * Warning * * *

The following is NOT investment advice! The Optimist will be as surprised as everyone else if the projections below approximate the way real events will unfold in the future. This is only an exercise in projecting a possible progression of prices under the stagflation environment which the Optimist supported in Stock and House Prices Might Not Fall Off a Cliff (http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/stocks.html). Think of this work as entertainment for precious metals bulls, and slow water torture for both bulls and bears on the stock market.

Rationale behind guesses about the future

As indicated in his previous commentaries (http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/commentary.html), the Optimist believes that the USA economy is currently in a stagflation where prices rise relentlessly, but the nation's employment base is eroding. The economic environment of 2005 is remarkably similar to that of 1975, and the progression of stagflation over the next few years could continue to track the escalating stagflation of 30 years before. In This Time, It Really Is Different! (http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/different.html), the Optimist argued that the Fed will be constrained from using the high real interest rate approach it took to stop rising stagflation in 1980. The logical conclusion is that stagflation will continue to increase at ever higher rates for the next decade or more. While the possibility always exists of an abrupt encounter with a massive iceberg as the good ship USS Economy sails through stormy seas, such an event is unpredictable and the results from a collision are far from certain. This commentary will assume that there is no cataclysmic financial accident in the next decade, and that the USS Economy will continue uninterrupted in its course through ever worsening rough seas.

A brief note about inflation is in order before the projected data is presented. As discussed in $100 Oil Solves the Wrong Problem (http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/oil_100.html#Hedonic), the Fed has a strong arsenal of weapons it can use to moderate the rises reported in the official CPI. The Optimist is happy that he can offer the positive perspective that the CPI data from Washington will show inflation increases at less than double digit levels through the next decade. For the purposes of this essay, however, the Optimist includes the likely impact of much higher prices of food and energy as if they were real issues that actually affect people's finances, and he ignores the abundance of hedonic opportunities which the Fed can employ so well. Thus, the Optimist's guesses about the level of inflation reflect the real cost impact that he anticipates consumers could feel in their wallets.

The Optimist's guesses about future highs

http://0301.netclime.net/1_5/V/A/N/11206567402529258.jpg ....siehe Anhang

The format of the data

Even though everyone knows that the Fed controls the economy, and the Fed is an independent organization, the Optimist highlights the presidential election years in light red as if politics had some bearing on prices and performance of the markets. Even the Optimist cannot pretend there will be no more recessions, so he colors in light blue a possible recession, coincidentally beginning immediately after the 2012 presidential election. With the rest of the data on a white background, the Optimist is pleased to show his patriotic fervor by presenting the data in shades of red, white, and blue! The one exception is that the Optimist cannot conceal his joy at identifying no less than six new annual highs in the Dow through 2016, and he highlights those highs with bright green. With wildly bullish guesses of six new stock market highs in a decade, it is easy to see how the Optimist earned his name!

The columns to the right of the projected market highs show values relative to 2004 after adjustment for subsequent inflation. The Value column demonstrates the miracle of compounding by showing the value that remains after the annual inflation.

Inflation

Stagflation presupposes significant levels of inflation, and the Optimist is happy to comply with those rules. Although his guesses for inflation are consistently higher than the levels our economy has previously experienced, they are still moderate in comparison to some who suggest that hyperinflation is a prospect in the not too distant future. A quick search of the internet shows that hyperinflation can get as high as hundreds of per cent per day. The Optimist is hopeful that we will not visit those elevated levels of hyperinflation for many years. The Optimist also forecasts a 50% reduction in the rate of inflation during a recession in 2013 - 2014. The Optimist is happy he can show his support for the Fed as they do battle with real inflation after the 2012 elections.

Stock Market

The Optimist is very confident that his projections for the highs in stocks, gold and silver for 2004 will be proven to be approximately correct, but he is less certain about the indicated highs for 2005. After that, his crystal ball is temporarily not working well so subsequent highs are really only guesses to illustrate the trends he considers possible. The Optimist believes that a sharp drop in the stock market is not politically correct, but that reduced profit levels and the stagnation in the economy will make substantial price advances unlikely too. Although a real effort to constrain inflation could temporarily lower stock prices by a third as indicated in the recession of 2013 - 2014, the Optimist concludes that stocks which are not permitted to decline will repeatedly rise to new highs over the next decade. That would obviously be bad news for the bears, but the bulls who cast an eye on their value adjusted returns may also be less than overjoyed. During consistently rising inflation, the stock market might not be the best sandbox for kids to play in.

Gold

Even though the Optimist has learned through experience that making predictions is a humbling process, he boldly offers his view of how the price of gold might progress during high and rising inflation. Time will tell whether this boldness is a reflection more of confidence in his viewpoint or of his inability to learn from his past errors.

As clearly demonstrated in the 1970s, gold responds enthusiastically to rising inflation in a stagflation environment. In many places and over a multitude of centuries, gold has proven its ability to retain value as fiat currencies deteriorate over time. Owning gold has long been considered as the ultimate insurance policy against problems caused by escalating inflation. While it is true that gold pays no interest, we learned in the 1970s that earning a few percent interest was little consolation as real inflation decimated a higher percentage of the investment.

At first glance, all readers will consider the guesses for the prices of gold to be outrageously high. A second look at the inflation adjusted values will provide a more sobering viewpoint. After gold values escalate with the price momentum over the next few years, the recession of 2013 - 2014 could return the inflation adjusted value of gold to a level below its highs in 2004. The questionable assumption in this data is how high the real rates of inflation will be over the next decade. If the indicated guesses for real inflation are close to reality, then gold prices really can advance as rapidly as shown.

Silver

Silver is an intriguing metal. It has so many uses that it is being consumed by industry at a faster rate than it can be mined from the ground and recycled from previous uses. Although there were billions of ounces of bullion silver in government warehouses just a few decades ago, those warehouses are now empty. It seems likely that there exists less than a few hundred million ounces of bullion silver remaining in other warehouse stocks to be consumed at the lowest cost for silver. As those stocks become more depleted, the value of silver must rise to give private holders of bullion, coins and jewelry an incentive to feed their silver into the industrial silver consumption machine. In addition to the value which must be added for depletion of supply, silver prices will also respond aggressively to the price pressures generated by rising inflation.

An interesting sidebar is that the table shows both nominal prices and real adjusted values of silver to continue rising through the projected recession of 2013 - 2014, even though demand for silver would likely slow somewhat during a recession. That price advance would occur because much of silver's production is a byproduct of copper and zinc mining. In a recession, the prices of copper and zinc could drop close to or even below the cost of mining, so the mine output would be substantially reduced. That in turn would also reduce the amount of byproduct silver which is dumped on the market. Total silver supply would decrease faster than demand would drop, and so a recession would actually increase the price pressure on silver.

Another point to consider is that silver is actually being consumed by industrial processes around the world at a faster rate than it can be mined from the earth, so the above ground total supply of silver diminishes daily. Gold, in contrast, has less destructive consumption, so most of the newly mined gold adds to the above ground supply in the forms of bullion, collectibles, jewelry, etc. If that trend continues, silver will be less plentiful than gold. The combination of relative scarcity and industrial demand pushed platinum to much higher prices than gold, and it can do the same for silver.

As a final note on silver, this hypothetical set of price and value trends does not try to forecast the dislocations that are inevitable when manufacturers who need silver panic to buy the limited supply, or when the commercial interests who are massively short silver futures and options are finally forced to cover their short positions. Each of those events could rocket silver prices higher by orders of magnitude, and stair step the progression shown in the table to much higher price levels. Once again, the Optimist demonstrates his perpetually positive nature by cheerfully forecasting that silver could be more expensive than gold when the price of gold rises higher than the DJIA in the years ahead.

Housing and interest rates

Conspicuous by omission are forecasts for housing and interest rates. They are not in the table because the Optimist does not want to waste readers' time with random thoughts that he has no strong basis for discussing. Some readers will inevitably ask about those important topics, however, so the Optimist will close this commentary with ballpark guesses. The current average cost of the typical suburban house can be estimated to be twenty times the DJIA. Even though real estate is currently over priced and in a bubble, it is likely to outperform stocks in an environment of high and rising inflation. That same typical house could rise to a higher multiple of the DJIA over the next 12 years. Even considering the possible rise compared to the DJIA, fewer ounces of gold or silver will be needed to purchase in 2016 the equivalent of a house which now costs 500 ounces of gold. A word of caution is necessary for any reader who dreams of buying a bunch of houses at no money down to capture some of the increase in equity. First, the Optimist could be wrong (it would not be the first time!), and house prices may not rise. Second, many undercapitalized buyers will find they cannot survive the crunch caused by rising demands for cash flow, and they will be forced to sell at a loss. Third, rising unemployment will cast a pall over the housing market, and there is likely to be a shortage of greater fools to fulfill their destiny as buyers when the owner needs to sell his house.

The Optimist confesses to profuse confusion over the current low and falling long term interest rates. In the 1970s, few things were more certain than that long bond rates would climb higher each time that inflation growled louder. Now, it seems like long term interest rates drop each time real inflation pushes prices higher. If that strange trend continues, one wonders if long term interest rates could drop toward zero when inflation rises in double digits! Once again, the Optimist cautions trusting readers to not use this viewpoint as investment advice!!

http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/prediction.html

mama mia

06.07.2006, 22:34

:supi soll doch so weiter gehen :kiss :schwitz ;)

mama mia

06.07.2006, 22:44

Exclusive: Barbera On Gold

The Gold Report
July 6, 2006

www.theaureport.com

The Gold Report Talks With Frank Barbera, Editor of Gold Stock Technician

Frank Barbera tells The Gold Report why he believes gold is headed toward the $1,000/oz. mark, and beyond. Barbera is currently the Co. Manager of the $35 Million Caruso Fund based in Los Angeles, California, a hedge fund, which seeks to make gains trading precious metals, stocks and currencies. A technician at heart, Frank began his career in the early 1980s working with John Bollinger, Bill Griffith and Susan Herrera at Financial News Network in Los Angeles. After FNN, Frank did a 10-year stint as the on-air market analyst for KWHY TV in Los Angeles where he presented current commentary on diverse subjects including the economy and all of the global financial markets. Frank exited technology stocks in the 1st week of March 2000, a call which earned him his first money management position at The Kavanaugh Fund in Santa Monica, a hedge fund subsidiary of Goldman Sachs. Frank's technical work on Gold and Gold Stocks is considered among the best in the industry and has appeared since 1993 in his weekly newsletter, the Gold Stock Technician. He has spoken at a number of investment conferences and been quoted widely in the Financial Press.

TGR: In your opinion, Mr. Barbera, have we hit the bottom for this recent correction? If so, where do we go from here?

FB: I do believe that we’ve reached the medium-term bottom in both gold and the gold stocks. However, over the course of the next few weeks, I think we will see a material recovery in prices. My upside target in the near term is $630. We might even get back up to $650 to $660 over the course of the next five to seven weeks.

TGR: Will the mining stocks follow suit?

FB: The gold stocks could actually do a bit better. The XAU could move from its current 130 up to 140 or 150. I think we’ll see a healthy 15% to 20% recovery in the share prices. That said, I believe that in the next few months, we will see a large sideways trading range in the gold price and the gold shares. Prices may come back up toward the highs for a while, then perhaps decline to the lows that we have just seen. However ultimately, when that period comes to an end—probably within a few months— the bull market in both the stocks and the commodities will resume, and they will rise to much, much higher levels.

TGR: I know you take a technical approach to investing. What is fueling your bullish view?

FB: Well, when you look at gold over the past few years, from the bottom in 2001 at around $250 to the recent high of $740, I think you’re looking at the first leg up in a much larger four- to five-year bull market. I would classify that as wave one to the upside in the gold market. What we’ve seen lately is just a correction in some of the excesses that have built up over the last five years of upward movement. We’re correcting that now with a sideways movement.

TGR: So we’ve had a correction, which you believe will be followed for the next few months by overall improvement, but also possibly some ups and downs along the way. What happens next? What’s your long-term view?

FB: I think that over the next two to five years, conservatively speaking, we will see gold prices north of a $1,000 an ounce, possibly much, much higher. In fact, I think a few years from now when gold is trading at $4,000, we’re all going to have a good laugh and say, “I should have bet the farm on gold when it was at $550.” I also think the Dow Jones Industrial average and the S&P will set new all-time highs over the next 12 to 18 months. I think basically that the entire credit liquidity cycle is about to re-inflate to a higher level of liquidity than we even seen so far.

TGR: In your opinion, has gold de-coupled from the dollar? Or as gold prices rise, will we see a weakening dollar?

FB: On the major trend I believe there will be no decoupling. I think the dollar will definitely move lower down the line, and I think gold prices will move considerably higher. However, we have a tricky situation with the Federal Reserve right now, and this situation is complicated by the fact that we’re no longer experiencing what could be considered a routine cycle. Over the last few years, U.S. finances have seriously deteriorated. We have a structural trade deficit that has gone parabolic. We have moved from $300 billion a year deficits in the current account, to $500 billion, to $800 billion. We’re approaching a trillion dollar shortfall in the current account. Typically, that’s very negative for currencies. The U.S. trade gap as a percentage of GDP is approaching 7%. Throughout the centuries, as far back as ancient Rome, a trade gap of 4% or more of GDP has triggered a major currency crisis and broad scale devaluations in money.

TGR: So why aren’t we headed for a crisis now, one that would greatly weaken the dollar?

FB: The U.S occupies a unique position. As Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley once described it, “We’re the single engine on the airplane” as far as global growth. China, Japan and Europe are all export-led economies. Even though China is developing on its own and industrializing, a lot of China’s capital expenditure investment is actually aimed at meeting final demand emanating from the United States. So, it does not behoove anyone to have the U.S. dollar collapse, because that would have a negative impact on all the export markets in Europe and Asia. I think the Fed is working much closer with other central banks to maintain a stable U.S. dollar. In fact, if I were to hazard a guess, I would say that Hank Paulson (the former chief executive of Goldman Sachs nominated by President George W. Bush as U.S. Treasury secretary) will be charged with coordinating to an even closer degree the central bank policies among Asia, Europe, and the United States.

TGR: So you believe gold will remain strong, but the dollar will stabilize. Wouldn’t that make me think that the dollar and gold have, in fact, de-coupled?

FB: The situation is a little more complex than that. I think people understand there will come a time when the dollar needs to be allowed to move lower. However, let’s look at the U.S. economy, which as we all know is cyclical. Right now we’re dipping into a slow period. It could be a recession. I tend to think it will be more of a slowdown. The Fed is in a very awkward position right now. On the domestic front, we have real trouble in the housing market, which went through a parabolic spike in the last few years as prices ran ahead of income. The Fed knows that housing prices across the board are probably in for a period of retreat. That retreat has to be managed very, very carefully, because if housing prices decline too much, it will negatively impact consumer confidence, which will negatively impact spending. And in the worst case, if all the mortgage debt—and there has been a ton of mortgage debt dumped into the banking system over the last few years — were to turn into non-performing loans, we would experience an epic financial crisis.

TGR: You believe the Fed will be able to prevent this?

FB: I think the Fed needs to keep short-term interest rates fairly high in order to maintain a wide spread over other competing currencies, and will help stabilize the U.S. dollar. At the same time, I think the Fed wants to carefully monitor housing prices, allowing them to pull back a bit, but not too far. The key to achieving this is to get the long rate down. So we will see an inverted yield curve, where long-term rates drop, and hopefully the stock market lifts off to another leg to the upside in the bull market.

A few years ago when the stock market was falling, short-term interest rates were cut many times so that essentially we rekindled a bull market in net assets, net household wealth, by driving up the price of real estate. I think what’s happening now, as real estate begins to pull sideways, net household wealth has to stay somewhat buoyant. I think you will see equity prices moving up. To that end we won’t have the big slowdown in consumer spending that would occur if both housing and at the stock market were to fall at the same time.

In my view, this is a coordinated policy by global central banks, and I think we’re coming out of it—we’re in the very last stages of this monetary cycle. We’re heading into a new monetary cycle where we will see more credit creation, more inflation over time, and I think eventually as stock prices firm and as the economy starts to firm, you will see the dollar be allowed to drop to lower levels. That will be bullish for gold.

TGR: So the long-term picture for gold is strong. Yet, you expect gold to perform well in the interim, despite some intermittent sideways movement?

FB: I think that a certain amount of money is just going to continue to pile into gold because ultimately there’s a lot of money out there that understands the unstable nature of things and the fact that gold is essentially the only hedge. To think of gold as a metal in my opinion is a big mistake.

TGR.: In other words, we shouldn’t view gold as a commodity?

FB: You cannot think of it as a commodity, as a metal. You have to think of it as a currency - the only currency in the world that can’t be debased. Just look at what the central banks have done over the years. The European Central Bank has been printing money way above its target. The Bank of Japan has created trillions of dollars of yen. And, of course, our own Fed and credit system has stepped outside the traditional auspices of the banking system to become its own unwieldy monster that just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I think against all that credit creation, gold is the only money. It is still relatively scarce. And it’s going to become scarcer all the time.

I think the trade-off is going to go something like this: Instead of having a financial collapse and a deflationary episode that may be a bottomless pit in the near term, I think that in another round of credit creation things will re-inflate once again from what are essentially already high levels. And down the line a little bit, 12 to 18 months, you are going to start to see some of that re-inflation move not only into the asset markets but start bleeding from the asset markets into real world prices. And I think we will start to notice appreciably higher prices for everyday goods, and that will also be very bullish for gold.

So I am a definite bull for gold. I think we’re coming into a pause, but I think once that pause is done, we’re really going to be moving. We’re moving in overdrive into an inflationary economy, and an inflationary economy that maybe a cycle or two down the line will become a hyperinflationary economy. And you may see the Dow at 36,000 in the next 5 to 10 years, but I will tell you that prices will also be markedly different than what they are today.

TGR: As long as we don’t have a global recession.

FB: And a global recession I think is what’s being headed off at the pass right now. If you look at Dr. Bernanke’s writing, throughout his career, he’s always talked about deflation and what a mistake it is to allow deflation to get control. Essentially, our system is really a system that is resting on the lynchpin of confidence, and if asset markets start to deflate -- be it the stock market, the dollar market, and the bond market—all three of those markets deflating equals a loss of confidence.

TGR: Isn’t that what we have had in the last 60 days?

FB: We have had something of that on a finer scale. I think we had to have a little dose of it in order to set the stage for the next leg up. But were that to get too far out of hand, you would impair investor confidence. And that would be accompanied by a slew of incalculably negative events. I think you would see the demise of the housing market altogether. I think you would see major financial crises, an abandonment of the dollar, an abandonment of the U.S. Treasury bond market, and a full-blown collapse in the U.S equity market.

I think what’s happened is the situation is being managed, and it’s being managed to produce a new wave of asset inflation in the equity market. All things being equal, money managers want to do what money managers are paid to do -- which is to invest money. I think no one wants to lag a rising market. So, to some degree, I think the situation is being orchestrated to deliver higher prices and to prevent these markets globally from falling over the cliff. Basically, it’s in no one’s best interests.

TGR: In this current environment, what are your thoughts on gold stocks?

FB: I still think investors can make very good money in trading the gold stocks. That’s something I have been very successful at over the past 15 years in writing the Gold Stock Technician. Often you can get 20% to 30% moves just in a span of a few weeks in the gold stocks. Let’s say the gold price averages $600 over the next couple of months. For the average mining company, especially for a smaller junior, a company that’s just developing, that’s an incredible incentive to go out and find gold. The margins are huge in the mining business. If we see energy prices that come down a bit, that could help even further. I think I would focus on some of the smaller development companies, a little beyond exploration stage, a little bit toward development where you have a delineated asset. And I think some of those stocks could perform extremely well over the next few months.

TGR: What about uranium stocks?

FB: That’s an area that I don’t follow closely, although I am familiar with all the better known names. I tend to think that they’re going to follow the general broad trend for energy, and I don’t think those prices will collapse. I see the uranium story has having very solid legs over the next few years.
(June 27, 2006)
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/jul062006.html

mama mia

07.07.2006, 08:46

Verfasst von Sebastian Hell am 06.07.2006 um 17:56 Uhr
Rohstoff Express: Bahnt sich ein Kampf um die Optionsbarrieren an?

Der Energiekomplex notiert zur Stunde etwas leichter, was auf die Schwäche des Benzinpreises zurückzuführen sein dürfte. Vor wenigen Minuten wurde der wöchentliche Lagerbestandsreport der EIA veröffentlicht, der bei unverbleitem Benzin einen Zuwachs von 1,036 Millionen Barrel offenbarte. Dieser Wert lag deutlich über den Erwartungen der Händler welche mit einer Reduktion um weitere ein bis zwei Millionen Fässer gerechnet hatten. Für Rohöl wies der Report einen Rückgang um 2,421 Millionen Barrel aus (Erwartungen -1 bis 2 Mio. Barrel) während bei den Destillaten ein Anstieg um 1,036 Millionen Fässer stattgefunden hatte (Konsens: +1 bis +2 Mio. Barrel). Auf der Nachfrageseite zeigte sich, dass derzeit fast 3,5% mehr Benzin verbraucht werden als der Durchschnitt über die letzten fünf Jahre zeigt.

Das gelbe Metall hat heute wieder den Sprung über die Marke von 630 $ geschafft und notiert aktuell zwei Dollar im Plus bei 631,70 $. Spannend wird nun wie sich der August Future während der nächsten Tage in diesem Bereich verhalten wird. Die Laufzeit der August Options beträgt nur noch 20 Tage und bei 630 $ liegt eine wichtige Optionsbarriere die aktuell einen Open Interest von 2.185 offenen Calls hat. Ein Kampf um diese Marke wäre nicht allzu ungewöhnlich da die Verkäufer der Calls versuchen werden ihre Prämien zu sichern indem sie Futures am Markt verkaufen. Allerdings gibt es auch noch einen Gegenpart - die Käufer der Calls - die mittels Longpositionen versuchen ihre Optionen ins Geld und über das bezahlte Premium zu hieven. Die mit Abstand meisten August Calls wurden bei 650 ge-/verkauft. Der Open Interest beläuft sich hier auf über 7.000 Kontrakte weswegen diese Hürde vielleicht auch noch von Interesse sein könnte bis zum Verfallstag in 20 Tagen.

Die amerikanischen Weizenpflanzen werden momentan von sehr heißen Temperaturen heimgesucht, was eine Verringerung des Outputs nach sich ziehen könnte. Das größte Problem ist jedoch, dass Minneapolis Weizen gestern ein neues zehn Jahres Hoch erreicht hat, was dazu führen dürfte, dass US Weizen auf dem Weltmarkt nicht mehr wettbewerbsfähig sein wird. Aktuell notiert Frühlingsweizen erneut mit 2,75 Cents oder 137,50 $ im Plus bei 5,17 $. Allerdings hat der Dezember Future seit seinem Tageshoch bei 5,22 bereits etwas nachgegeben weswegen die bisherige Kerze einer bärischen Umkehrformation gleicht. Die Indikatoren zeigen ebenfalls Überhitzungserscheinungen an, weshalb eine Korrektur nicht ganz auszuschließen ist. Zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt ist es jedoch noch zu früh Shortpositonen zu eröffnen, trotzdem sollten aktive Händler den Markt im Auge behalten.

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=2853

mama mia

07.07.2006, 13:18

Posted On: Thursday, July 06, 2006

Shultz Gold Index - Author: Jim Sinclair

mama mia

07.07.2006, 16:14

http://www.hartgeld.com/filesadmin/pdf/TheTimesTheyAreChanging-D_05-Extract.pdf

Für die ganz Harten hier.

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=944409#post944409)

:rolleyes

mama mia

07.07.2006, 18:26

http://www.321gold.com/images/links.gif (http://www.321gold.com/links.html) http://www.321gold.com/images/editorials.gif (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php) Whither Precious Metals
Up or Down

Douglas V. Gnazzo
Jul 7, 2006

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/logo.gif "Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth,
but by washing away from it
all that is not gold." -Leo Tolstoy Counter-trend Correction

The recent correction in the precious metals has left investors shaken. In response to their fears is a litany of opinions as to what awaits the precious metals. The $64 dollar question is will they go up, or will they go down.

We wish we had a definitive answer that addressed both time and magnitude, but alas, we do not. Our crystal ball was broken many years ago attempting such prognostications. From such we have learned that all that is needed, is to know the direction of the primary trend, and to be aligned therewith.

The primary trend of the gold market is bullish. Look at any long-term chart of gold, silver, or the precious metal stocks: the trend is quite clear.

Bull markets have a unique signature illustrating the primary trend as a series of higher lows and higher highs, proceeding from the bottom left hand corner of the chart, upwards to the top right hand corner of the chart: a veritable stairway to heaven if you will.

All bull markets experience corrections - of both short and intermediate term duration. As we have said several times before: there has not been an intermediate term correction since May of 2005. One was due, expected, and has arrived. Of this there is no doubt, nor should there be any surprise.

Intermediate term corrections in the precious metals generally run about four to five months in duration (18-20 weeks). So far, this correction is about 2 months (8 weeks) old.

A significant move down in magnitude is not a given, although it remains a distinct possibility. Without question - time is going to play a major part in this correction. We are more certain of the time factor than the magnitude factor.

We do feel that a fair amount of risk is being ignored, and that many see nothing but blue skies ahead. We see blue skies ahead, but that doesn't mean that storms will not roll in and out as well.

Signposts

The May 2005 lows were below 170 for the HUI; $425.00 for gold; and below $7 for silver. We've come a long ways baby: 230 points in the HUI; 290 in gold; and 8 in silver (over a doubling in price for silver). The following are just examples of possible retracement levels, or signposts along the way.

Thirty-three Percent
HUI = 76 points = 324
GOLD = 96 = 619
SILVER = 2.64 = 12.36

Fifty Percent
HUI = 115 = 285
GOLD = 145 = 570
SILVER = 4 = 11

Sixty-six Percent
HUI = 152 = 248
GOLD = 192 = 523
SILVER = 5.28 = 9.72

Time

As stated above, the general duration of intermediate term corrections is 4 to 5 months. That brings us to September, give or take a few weeks either way. In addition, intermediate term corrections, have on occasion, lasted longer than 4 to 5 months, so caveat emptor.

Between now and then there will be significant moves both up and down, as volatility has become the norm. For those quick on the draw, these moves offer potential. For those that buy and hold, any forthcoming significant lows will offer an opportunity to accumulate new positions at bargain basement prices.

Excerpts

The following are excerpts from our market wrap for the week ending June 30, 2006.

Conclusions

I sold several of my gold stock positions at the end of last week. This is not because I am negative on them - I simply booked profits that were quite significant for the few weeks time I owned them. In addition, I still own several more. The gold stock portfolio below indicates the ones sold and the date and selling price.

I am of the opinion that the pm lows recently put in place will be tested. When they are tested, and hold their lows, I will buy more.

I do not see an intermediate move up occurring in the precious metals at this particular time. A lot of technical damage was done during the recent correction, and there is now significant overhead resistance that needs to be worked off. Time heals all wounds.

I remain very bullish on the precious metals, and still believe they are the investment opportunity of a lifetime. However, even the strongest of bull markets have to have corrections, both short term and intermediate term.

The precious metals have not experienced an intermediate term correction since May of 2005. One was due, is here, and is standard operating procedure. My mantra remains: buy weakness - sell strength. Do the hard trade.

Finally, below are the market indicators for most of the major markets and the gold stock positions. And that's a rap.

Commentary

Thank God, the FOMC meeting has finally come and gone. The entire world seemed to be on hold - waiting with baited breath to hear the gospel according to the wizards of finance.

Finally, it came, and with it came celebrations in almost every market - except the US Dollar, which turned down while others turned up. It seems the US Dollar has some karma to work out.

The importance of the 25 basis point rate hike was blown way out of proportion, and was not viewed in the proper context. The minutia was insignificant - the full-fledged policy a dead man walking.

Furthermore, and more importantly - the lack of understanding of what is going on regarding monetary policy (or the lack thereof), both here and abroad; and the repercussions such will exact on the economies of the world - is literally scary.

FOMC Press Release

Release Date: June 29, 2006 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/press/monetary/2006/20060629/default.htm)

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However, the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.

Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 6-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Dallas.
2006 Monetary Policy (http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/press/monetary/2006/default.htm)

Market's Response

The markets responded to the rate hike by rallying full steam ahead, all that is except the US dollar, which was once again, hammered down 1.8% for the week.

The experts explained that the markets see the end coming for future rate hikes, so onwards and upwards the markets marched. We disagree in the markets and the experts (most experts - not all) interpretation of the rising tide of interest rates sweeping round the world.

From the BIS 76th Annual Report 2005/06: An Overview

Chapter I: Introduction: resilience to mounting strains (http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2006e1.htm)

"...Yet, as the year wore on, fears began to grow about prospective inflationary pressures. Concerns also began to mount about the growing imbalances in the global economy, not least the low saving and high investment levels in the United States and China, respectively, and record current account imbalances. Against this backdrop, monetary policy tightened in a number of industrial countries..."

Chapter II: The global economy (http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2006e2.htm)

"...However, several features of the current global upswing are less positive: fiscal deficits are large; household savings seem unsustainably low in a number of advanced economies; investment levels remain low; and global current account imbalances have reached unprecedented levels..."

Chapter IV: Monetary policy in the advanced industrial economies (http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2006e4.htm)

"...As deflationary pressures faded, the Bank of Japan announced the end of its unconventional quantitative easing policy but initially left its policy rate unchanged at zero..."

Chapter V: Foreign exchange markets (http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2006e5.htm)

"...As in previous years, three main factors underpinned exchange rate developments during the period under review: interest rate differentials, the current account deficit and rising net international liabilities of the United States, and continuing reserve accumulation in China limiting the dollar's depreciation against the renminbi..."

Chapter VIII: Conclusion: coping with risks, today and tomorrow (http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2006e8.htm)

"...Yet there are considerable uncertainties and associated risks, not least concerning inflationary pressures on the one hand, and a possible unwinding of accumulated economic and financial imbalances on the other. These could lead to financial market turbulence or a long period of relatively slower global growth developments, or both..."

We will not bore the reader by going over what the BIS has clearly stated, except to note that they seem to see some problems and imbalances that could have a negative impact on the global financial system. Both the experts and the market are wrong, or the BIS is wrong - take your pick. We will take one from column A, and one from column B, thank you very much.

Liquidity

The critical issue in all this (at least one of them) is liquidity, as in excess global liquidity that has created a boom of never before seen proportions - a virtual bubble bath of credit flooding the world. After booms come busts - it is but the way of natural law.

Because of both the sheer magnitude of the credit expansion, and the lack of experience and track record of the new credit derivatives fueling a large portion of it - we are without a doubt sailing in unchartered waters. We may be up the proverbial creek.

Already many unintended consequences have resulted, it remains to be seen what other collateral damage unintentionally manifests itself. It is much like Pandora's box - better to leave unopened.

So now, the mess of excess secretions is trying to be mopped up. Interest rates around the world are on the rise. However, are the central bankers serious about cleaning up the mess they have made, by inundating the world in a flood of paper fiat credit and debt instruments?

Alternatively, do they even know what such would entail, and how to go about it - or if it is even possible to accomplish, without creating more unintended consequences, resulting in the cure being worse than the disease? The Fed is damned if they do and damned if they do not. The Fed is simply damned, as well it should be. It is an accident looking for a time and place to happen.

We do not believe those responsible for monetary policy understand the complexity of the task that stands before them, nor that they have the means to address it, even if they were aware of it. Greed has blinded many an eye to the light of the day.

We are concerned that either the cure will be worse than the disease, or that when push comes to shove, an addict will do what an addict does - feed his habit with more of the same, trying to kill the pain without first killing himself.

The prognosis does not look favorable. The only solution that has the power to fight such profligate pestilence - is Honest Money of silver and gold.

The problem is the excess liquidity - it cannot be cured with more of the same. However, it is imperative to recognize that the cause of the excesses is inherent within the nature of the beast: the creature known as paper fiat debt-money.

When credit, debt, and money are the same, the only choice is to inflate or die. As we said, the prognosis is not promising without a return to the hard currency system of the Constitution.

In paper fiat land, the least that the central bankers should be doing is raising reserve requirements So far it has been all talk, and my dad always said - talk is cheap.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/logo.gif -Douglas V. Gnazzo
email: Douglas V, Gnazzo (douglas.gnazzo@honestmoneyreport.com)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo070706.html