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mama mia
03.04.2007, 15:50
:confused:schwitz666 :eek :nw

mama mia
03.04.2007, 22:16
Copper futures rally to a five-month high
Gold prices weaken, track oil lower despite strength in other metals

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bacc7f3b4-d489-4f4b-acd5-7ad99a757d02%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bacc7f3b4-d489-4f4b-acd5-7ad99a757d02%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:09 PM ET Apr 3, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Copper futures climbed more than 4% Tuesday to close at their highest level in five months, piggybacking on growing global demand and concerns over falling supplies.
At the same time, gold futures finished lower in a volatile session on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with traders tracking weakness in the oil market and shrugging off strength in other metals.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices traded well above the 200-day moving average around the $6,900 mark and closed at $6,970, according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.
"This triggered systems-based CTA [Commodity Trader Advisor] buying today, with fundamental support seen from falling inventories and expectations of increased consumption in the seasonally strong second quarter, notably from China," he said in e-mailed comments.
Against this backdrop, copper for May delivery climbed as high as $3.3175 a pound in Nymex trading. The contract closed at its highest level since Nov. 9, up 4.3%, or 13.55 cents, at $3.3145 a pound.
LME copper supplies fell by 1,225 metric tons to 179,850 metric tons on Tuesday, Hayes said.
And on the Nymex, copper supplies fell 52 short tons to stand at 36,386 short tons as of late Monday.
Gold pulls back
Also in metals, June gold declined by $1.80 to close at $669.70 an ounce in New York, after reaching a high of $673.20 as traders remained focused on developments surrounding standoff between Iran and the U.K. over the fate of 15 sailors and marines in Iranian custody.
"Gold is (all) about individual investors," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com. "Their worry-barometer is just not sufficiently high right now and it also keeps being variable, at best."
"About the only possible comfort for gold may come from a strong copper market, as some analysts take its movements to be a leading indicator for subsequent bullion movements," he said in e-mailed commentary.
And "for the moment, dips are still being viewed as a good buying opportunity, a theme likely to continue as we approach the wedding/monsoon season in India," said James Moore, a metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
In a note to clients, he called "encouraging" the emergence of technical support around the $656 chart line.
However, "with the market still largely long, there remains the risk of a deeper correction short-term," Moore said.
On Monday, June gold had closed at $671.50, up $2.50, after trading as low as $661.70.
Eyes on crude
Movements in the price of crude oil also filtered into metals trading. Crude for May delivery closed 2% lower with tensions between Iran and the U.K. easing slightly.
"Several conciliatory verbal overtures have been made by both sides and the impasse could now conclude without further ado," said Nadler. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-futures-close-2-loss/story.aspx?guid=%7BD3FDF7F1%2DB3B3%2D43CA%2DAD30%2DA07E3AB098D8%7D)
Also on Nymex, other metals prices gained ground along with copper. May silver climbed 8 cents to close at $13.43 an ounce, while June palladium added $2.05 to end at $355.75 an ounce and July platinum rose $3.30 to close at $1,252.30 an ounce.
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 7.58 million troy ounces as of late Monday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose 90,698 troy ounces to stand at 125.8 million troy ounces.
In equities, indexes tracking the performance of stocks in the metals and mining sector rose, tracking strength in copper Tuesday.

mama mia
04.04.2007, 18:35
...die 15 britischen Soldaten werden frei gelassen :cool PMs da staunt der Laie :bang :o :kiss

mama mia
04.04.2007, 19:24

Global gold output fell to 10-yr low in 2006

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By: Mariaan Olivier (http://www.miningweekly.co.za/author.php?u_id=115)
Published: 4 Apr 07 - 14:05
Global gold production had fallen to a ten-year low last year, when output registered a “substantial” 3% decline of 79 t, a survey released on Wednesday showed.

Precious metals consultancy firm GFMS, which launched Gold Survey 2007 in Johannesburg, senior supply-side analyst Bruce Alway explained that Asia, North America and Africa were the main contributors to the decline in production.

In Asia, production fell by 46 t, while North America and Africa’s output declined by 26 t and 17 t, respectively.

“In Africa, Mali and Ghana did much, but not quite enough to undo the more than 20 t of lost output reported in South Africa,” the consultancy said.

South Africa’s gold production dropped to an 84-year low in 2006, registering a 7,5% year-on-year decline.

Oceania's production fell by 21 t last year.

Latin America was the only region to return a meaningful rise, having posted a 35 t, or 7%, year-on-year increase.

Alway stressed the role played by new mines in the growth reported in Latin America, even though the continent, and the world’s largest mine, Yanacocha, actually registered a sharp 22% drop in output in 2006.

“New mines, such as Veladero, Amapari, Mulatos and Choco 10, located in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela, generated over 20 t of new gold in 2006,” he said.

GFMS said that it expected a moderate improvement of between 1% and 2% in gold output in 2006.

“New mines, ramp-ups and less of a swing at some of the world’s larger operations that dampened the impact of new production in 2006 should support our forecast production level to above 2 500 t,” he commented.

mama mia
04.04.2007, 21:50
Gold futures close at 5-week high
Dollar dips; oil drops after Iranian president says British sailors to be freed

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B4fa6bed6-91d0-44d2-b530-40be6e43b300%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B4fa6bed6-91d0-44d2-b530-40be6e43b300%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:23 PM ET Apr 4, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed Wednesday to close at a five-week high, underpinned by weakness in the dollar and physical demand, even as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triggered a decline in crude-oil prices by saying captured British sailors would be freed.
"Gold bullion received quite a surprise vote of confidence during Wednesday's trading session," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com, in e-mailed commentary. "Just when the bulls expected to see a large decline in prices due to the resolution of the Iran-U.K. crisis, they instead got their long-standing wish of seeing gold surpass $672 per ounce come true."
'Just when the bulls expected to see a large decline in prices due to the resolution of the Iran-U.K. crisis, they instead got their long-standing wish of seeing gold surpass $672 per ounce come true.'
— Jon Nadler, Kitco.com
Gold for June delivery rose $7.70 to close at $677.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It climbed to $681 earlier, its strongest intraday level since March 1.
"The current rise in the gold price is overdue, but overhead resistance got in the way," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "It is now out of the way so the jump is happening now."
"This is caused not solely by the situation in Iran but a combination of factors," he said in e-mailed comments.
The factors include the fall in the dollar and expectations for more declines, oil prices holding above $60 a barrel, strong physical demand for gold at just under $660 and overall "global uncertainty," especially in the Middle East, he said.
Indeed, "there has been an aggressive shorting campaign to keep gold below $666," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, in e-mailed comments. But "like all previous capping exercises, this one is failing also thanks to an incredibly strong physical market."
The dollar fell against the euro and yen Wednesday after reports showed non-manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in March while factory orders rose less than forecast in February. See Economic Report. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/ism-service-sector-measure-shows-slow/story.aspx?guid=%7B9EC94F2F%2D00FB%2D4F2D%2DAB0E%2D1D3CD3A07178%7D) The weakness in the greenback helped fuel investment demand for gold. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-falls-weaker-ism-services/story.aspx?guid=%7BD5039047%2D1E0A%2D4149%2D87C4%2D3EAEB0517D95%7D)
Meanwhile, crude-oil futures fell Wednesday after Ahmadinejad pardoned 15 U.K. Navy personnel being held captive by Tehran and said they would be released, ending a diplomatic crisis that had raised concerns about oil supplies in the region.
But oil's losses were limited by gains in gasoline futures, which climbed on the heels of an eighth-weekly drop in U.S. motor gasoline supplies. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/oil-falls-iran-set-free/story.aspx?guid=%7B66AE91EC%2D3E7C%2D427A%2D833C%2D1EE0BA22AEF8%7D)
Iran's Ahmadinejad used a news conference for the Persian New Year to announce that the British sailors would be released. The announcement was not a major surprise; the U.K. government had said earlier it believed Iran would like an "early resolution" to the crisis.
The 15 sailors were seized by armed Iranian forces 13 days ago and charged with trespassing in Iranian waters. The U.K. had insisted they were in Iraqi waters, patrolling under a United Nations mandate when they were taken prisoner.
London impact
Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard said "it's the physical supply side of the market in London that's been influencing prices so much the last few weeks."
"Gold sales have been swamping the market the last three weeks ... and the price has held up considerably well and even increased under that pressure," he said in e-mailed comments. "I think what we've seen today is the end of that selling pressure."
So, "we're going to see prices jump up and challenge the May '06 high in 2-3 weeks in my opinion," he said.
Against this backdrop, other metals prices climbed along with gold, though palladium was a lone loser, with its June contract closing down $1.60 at $354.15 an ounce.
May silver rose 19 cents to end at $13.62 an ounce and July platinum rose $6.60 to close at $1,258.90 an ounce.
'Gold sales have been swamping the market the last three weeks ... and the price has held up considerably well and even increased under that pressure. I think what we've seen today is the end of that selling pressure.


mama mia
05.04.2007, 22:01
Gold futures score a two-session win
Traders unwilling to sell ahead of Easter weekend

By Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B4e7443ca-8005-476c-bb76-96aae0201fd8%7D&siteid=mktw) & Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B4e7443ca-8005-476c-bb76-96aae0201fd8%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:11 PM ET Apr 5, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed higher Thursday to tally a two-session win of almost $10 an ounce with traders unwilling to sell the precious metal ahead of the long Easter holiday.
Gold for June delivery rose $2 to close at $679.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its strongest closing level since Feb. 27. The contract is up $9.60, or 1.4%, from Tuesday's closing level.
Regular metals trading on the exchange will be closed Friday and reopen Monday following the Easter holiday.
"Gold prices continued their ascent, albeit at a slower pace," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. "Market watchers now believe that gold received a new lease on life by virtue of its passing over previous resistance levels and a close above $672 per ounce."
"At least on the surface, it appears that gold is executing a de-coupling from oil (content near $64 and rising prospect of $60 in the cards), the U.S. dollar (weak but not terminal by a long shot) and from geopolitics (the Iran drama basically came and went without being the primary catalyst for substantial movements in the price of gold)," Nadler said in e-mailed commentary.
On Wednesday, the contract gained 1.1%, underpinned by weakness in the dollar and physical demand.
"The return of fund interest to the market has finally allowed gold to clear the $668-$670 resistance area and should now look to propel the metal back toward the highs of February ($689) and potentially beyond," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"While the release of the U.K. hostages may lead to some safe-haven reduction, gold should now find sufficient momentum of its own as speculative players appear more confident at increasing their risk exposure," Moore said in a note to clients.
'While the release of the U.K. hostages may lead to some safe-haven reduction, gold should now find sufficient momentum of its own as speculative players appear more confident at increasing their risk exposure.'
— James Moore, TheBullionDesk.com
Weakness in crude failed to put pressure on gold. May crude fell below $64 a barrel, extending Wednesday's decline as traders unwound the risk premium built into prices during a 13-day standoff between the U.K. and Iran following the capture of 15 British Navy personnel by Iranian forces. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gasoline-futures-touch-7-month-high/story.aspx?guid=%7B59BCB59B%2D4774%2D423B%2DBE3F%2DB8DE1F513B1B%7D)
"Middle Eastern tension has eased, but traders are reported to hold off on gold selling ahead of the Easter holiday," said analysts at Action Economics, in a research note.
Other metals prices closed higher Thursday, with the exception of copper, whose May contract fell 1.05 cents to close at $3.377 a pound -- retreating from Wednesday's five-month high.
June palladium rose $2.25 to close at $356.40 an ounce, and the July contract for sister metal platinum added $7 to end at $1,265.90 an ounce. May silver rose 12 cents to close at $13.74 an ounce.
"Although we expect to see this bull run extend considerably further in the months ahead, we feel that we are in the short-covering squeeze part of the rebound at the moment and that things may pull back once the shorts have covered," William Adams, analyst at BaseMetals.com told clients.
"We do not think the environment is as bullish as it was this time last year and therefore we should be prepared for some volatile trading," he said.
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks fell 376,040 troy ounces to stand at 7.1 million troy ounces as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell to 126.4 million troy ounces, down 55,688 troy ounces, while copper supplies fell 31 short tons to stand at 36,355 short tons.
In equities, indexes tracking the performance of stocks in the metals and mining sector traded on a mixed note Thursday.

mama mia
06.04.2007, 09:27
Crunch Time

Troy Schwensen
Apr 6, 2007

The following is an extract from the March '07 Issue of The Global Speculator sent to subscribers on the 5th of April 2007.


The month of March '07 has seen some wild swings in the precious metals markets. The weak hands have continued to unload shares to the strong hands and the strength of this precious metals bull market has improved as a result. Whilst it is a little early to claim that a bottom has been put in place, things are certainly starting to look that way.

With the US housing market showing signs of distress and the US dollar falling out of favor amongst foreign investors, the Federal Reserve has been left with little ammunition to combat either problem. To lower rates now leaves the US dollar vulnerable to further falls, as foreign investors start looking elsewhere. To raise rates in order to sure up the necessary foreign investment (Twin Deficit funding) will only serve to accelerate weakness in the housing market and the US economy in general. Something will have to give and my bet is on the US dollar. The Gold price is already showing signs of strength and will obviously be a major beneficiary of this devaluation process.

click on images to enlarge http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/1.jpg (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/1.jpg) XAU

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/2.jpg (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/2.jpg) XAU/GOLD RATIO

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/table.gif Last month we were looking at a scenario where the XAU was underperforming the Gold price and was in the midst of another significant pull back. Technically things were looking weak as the XAU/Gold ratio moved towards the 0.20 level and sentiment had again turned very bearish. By the 13th of March the XAU/Gold ratio broke 0.20 and the XAU found an interim bottom at 128.55, with the Gold price at US$650.08. Since then we have seen a significant bounce of over 11% in the XAU and the Gold price has put on just over 3% to US$671.90 an ounce. Last month we also talked about how Gold shares should typically perform in comparison to the metal when conditions are technically strong. That is the shares should outperform the metal by at least 3 to 1. A look at the performance of the XAU since the 13th of March sees the index outperforming the Gold price by just over 3 to 1 and things are starting to look as solid as they were weak just 4 short weeks ago. At this point I am tentatively looking at the low made on the 13th of March as a key turning point. I would however like to see the XAU go on with things and break through the significant resistance that exists in the 145 -150 range. A look at the XAU/Gold ratio section of the chart above shows a downward sloping trend line with resistance at about 0.218. If the precious metals shares can continue to outperform the Gold price and the ratio can break this trend line, this would also be a solid confirmation that a bottom has more than likely been achieved.


The two short term scenarios as I see it over the coming weeks:

Scenario 1: The precious metals shares continue to outperform the Gold price and work towards breaking strong resistance in the 145-150 range. The Gold price will eventually break stiff resistance in the US$665-$US670 range, before continuing to work towards an interim target of US$740 an ounce. I support this scenario.

Scenario 2: The precious metals market gets caught up in a broad commodity sell off and/or prolonged correction in the stock market, resulting in the XAU falling all the way down to either support at 115 or in a worse case scenario the long term support line at around 95. I continue to see this scenario as unlikely at the present time but given the volatility of world markets it would be ignorant to dismiss the risk completely.

Intermediate Term Outlook:

Over the intermediate term my next target for the XAU is 175 -180 (Close to the previous high) consistent with the measurement of the present Reverse Head and Shoulder pattern (Assuming the neckline at 145 is broken). This could then be followed by a more extensive rally that takes us to 230 over the latter half of 2007 or early 2008, depending on how long it takes this consolidation to run its course.


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/3.jpg (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen040607/3.jpg) The Silver index corrected during the month to the support of its consolidation triangle and like the XAU has since rebounded to take out resistance at about the 7,500 mark. In contrast to the breakout that happened in February where the Silver shares underperformed the Silver price, this breakout has occurred with the silver shares outperforming the Silver price and is therefore much more bullish in its implications.


The two short term scenarios as I see it over the coming weeks:

Scenario 1: The resistance at 7,500 will continue to be tested with an eventual clean breakout coinciding with the relative strength comparative with the Silver price breaking the long term downward sloping trend line (Already in the process of happening). Once this occurs, the Silver index should embark on a new bullish leg upwards. I support this scenario.

Scenario 2: If the Gold and Silver price were to get caught up in the sharp fall of the other commodity prices and/or a prolonged sell off in the Stock market, we could see a worse case scenario of a breakdown of the present consolidation pattern and a move of the index back to the long term support line at around 4,300. Whilst the risks should be considered, I don't support this scenario at the present time.

Long Term Outlook:

Over the longer term my next target for the NASI is around the 11,000 mark towards the latter half of 2007 or early 2008, again depending on when the present consolidation ends.


Well we have had the ugly correction, we have endured the usual pessimism that surrounds these conditions and we are presently coming out the other side. The challenge now is for the precious metals sector to achieve breakouts in the various markets we have discussed. Silver continues to look the strongest with a breakout in that market presently underway. The key indicator will continue to be the relative strength comparatives with the respective metals. If these indicators continue to strengthen, the probability of a sustainable rally will improve. At this stage I would say things are looking reasonably favorable. For anyone interested I write a free monthly precious metals newsletter which you can sign up for on the website below.

Troy Schwensen CPA
The Global Speculator
Email: Troy.Schwensen@bigpond.com


mama mia
06.04.2007, 09:29
Key Charts & Major Clues

Jim Willie CB
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)"
Apr 6, 2007

Use this link (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html) to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.

Some extremely important charts follow, each with an equally important message. The story can be told from a series of painted pictures. The USEconomy is in deep trouble. The US Federal Reserve is caught in a box. Bankers are one step from being snared in a quagmire, with vivid memories of the insolvent bank system endured by Japan for over a full decade. The US bank problems seem worse by comparison, when factoring in mortgages, huge spread trades sure to go bad, a mountain of credit derivatives growing at 80% annually in size, and a raft of collateralized debt obligations sitting like an ominous cloud. The Bank of Japan simply cannot continue with rate hikes, given the vulnerable shaky state of all matters financial on a global basis. Gold and silver are moving to center stage, undeterred by the recent shock waves. The main shock is to the Powers That Be (King Henry & His Court of Market Manipulators), who are losing grip at the helm. A wider war, surely beneficial for many private interests, would kill the future economic prospects.

This holiday piece is intended to read like a magazine, with brief messages like captions under key charts. The sequence tells a story highly bullish for gold & energy, as well as its investments. The April full reports for the Hat Trick Letter tell the story in much more detail, delivered at the time of the US income tax deadline in mid-month. You know? That voluntary tax donation system which people are intimidated into thinking is part of law and existing statutes. Increasingly, taxpayer money supports private enterprise on a visible basis on Wall Street and a clandestine basis with defense contracts linked to the war on terrorism.

Housing is a disaster and debacle already, soon to become a major meltdown crisis. On the tangible side is the lost opportunity to raid home equity, the lost sense of wealth, the primary piggy bank suffering erosion. On the banking side is the mortgage calamity, which is the inevitable final chapter of Greenspan's self-directed bailout from the stock bust bearing his signature also. The downward spiral for housing and mortgages must be addressed. So far the sleepy crew await further information from the patient, prone and firmly bedded in the cancer ward. The next move is for rate cuts, whether they want them or not. A major USDollar devaluation lies directly ahead. If not, national bankruptcy is assured.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/1.gif BANKERS IN CEMENT SHOES
The banker stock index shows a major message of reversing prospects. This is an ugly chart, with a February shock, a flirt with an uptrend breakdown, and an odd bouncing ball decline in the stochastix cyclical measure. The combination of huge bank losses from mortgages, together with absent profit margins from the borrow & lend yield spreads, make for poison. The bankers will next demand a rate cut in order to attempt a housing rescue and avert a mortgage meltdown. The rate cut will accomplish neither. However, lower official USFed rates would assist the adjustable mortgage holders, whose ARM rate is tied to the official rate. Most important, remember that bankers dictate to the USFed, or else the USFed caters to the bank sector.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/2.gif PRICE INFLATION SPECTER
The US Treasury yield curve has begun to reverse. What was a 10 to 15 basis point inversion for several months has turned in to a 4 to 10 basis point steepening. The inversion is gone, replaced by a largely flat but upward pointing curve. This could be the onset of some price inflation coupled with economic recession, known as STAGFLATION, the absolute curse of central bankers. Why so? Because it represents a failure on both their mandates, growth with stable prices. Next is an interest rate cut though! The words "Inflate or Die" come to mind, regardless of the price structure situation. Bankers need a rate cut on the low end, which would ensure a wider profit margin to lenders. Then again, lenders have begun their strike, having tightening lending standards in such a manner as to ensure a recession and further housing decline. The stochastix crossover points to a higher ratio ahead. The double bottom means the retest has been completed, and higher ratios lie ahead. The most likely way this comes about is for the long-term rates to rise, and a the short-term rates to remain low, and maybe even come down.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/3.gif NATURAL GAS READY TO SPURT
Behind the global attention of a rising crude oil price is a recovering natural gas price. Sure, global warming (or whatever) factor led to warmer winter weather. But the flip side is that spring and summer will also be warmer. Most US regions cool by air conditioning powered by gas-fired electrical generation. The election motivated energy decline of last summer is long past. Reality has returned. An uptrend is showing itself. Momentum is clear in the cyclical series. Moving averages provide support. Natural gas production is in every bit as wretched shape as the oil market, but demand has slowed on a seasonal basis in wintertime. The end result will be added strain on the entire cost structure. Natural gas is used across the spectrum, from home heating to industrial processes, to ingredients to fibers and fertilizer.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/4.gif YEN CARRY TRADE NOT TO UNWIND
The best forward indicator for the Japanese yen currency, and its associated Yen Carry Trade unwind, is the Nikkei stock index of major Japanese stocks. A highly bullish triangle has shown itself, also undeterred by the recent late winter shock. Given the vulnerable state of the global financial markets, and Western economies, the Bank of Japan cannot deliver a series of shocks, even though the Japanese economy is in a state of revival. The BOJ and other central bankers must weigh the risks of continued easy money in Japan where Tokyo property values are rising, versus the pain of more shock waves to the Yen Carry Trade which funds some entire financial sectors.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/5.gif GOLD READY TO BUST OUT
Unshaken by the late winter shock waves, gold & silver remain strong, sturdy, resilient. The boasted resilience claim given to the USEconomy is misdirected. That accolade belongs to the precious metals. Talk about bullish signals!!! Its uptrend is strong, and improving even during the late winter shock. Moving averages are rising, undeterred. The cyclical measure measuring momentum looks outstanding. The gold market smells many things in the wind, some from banking distress extended from housing, some from the stench of war, maybe even a global boycott of USTBond purchases. See China for the latest end to continued FOREX reserves accumulation. They will next invest, most likely in oil and gold and critical metal ores. We have the foundation for a trade war with China, lacking only a spark. If and when it arrives, support for the USDollar will erode while price inflation rises due to interrupted supply of finished products.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/6.gif SILVER OUTPERFORMS GOLD
The strength of the silver price continues to be the harbinger of much greater price action. A significant bearish triangle in the gold/silver ratio points to a upcoming surge in the silver price. This is not bearish for gold, but rather very bullish for silver relative to gold. No, gold looks great here, due soon to approach the 690 February high, and after that to surpass the May 720 recent high. Far too many extraordinarily bullish events and factors are properly aligned. War is not the only, nor the most important, gold factor right now. Instead, housing and mortgages are the main Achilles Heel. Jackie Chan believes silver is most likely to succumb to the gold dominance once again. That painted picture is not so certain. The constant shuttle of silver bullion from one European bank to another testifies to some desperation. The difficulty in receiving delivery of silver futures contracts testifies to some shortage, if not default in progress. Gold fights the political battles, but silver wins the investment game.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040607/7.gif CONCLUSION
Something ugly this way comes! Gold & silver smell it. Its name is STAGFLATION and BANK CRISIS. The US Federal Reserve is backed into a corner. The USEconomy, fully dependent upon housing on the upswing, now sinks on the housing downswing into the abyss. The bank sector is reeling with the strain from the mortgage finance fiasco. Currencys have begun to pressure the USDollar again. Full details are provided in the April issue of the Hat Trick Letter. Opportunities abound. Gold will thrive, almost as much as silver, which should easily surpass 20 on the next surge. Crude oil will reflect the US$ strain, while natural gas enjoys a major lift also. Talk again of a natgas cartel confirms the shortage.


From subscribers and readers:
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(Gabriel R in Mexico)

Apr 5, 2007
Jim Willie CB

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/hats.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
Willie Archives
(http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jim+Willie+CB)website: Golden Jackass (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html)


mama mia
06.04.2007, 22:16
Verfasst von Uwe Bergold (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=5) am 05.04.2007 um 14:34 Uhr
Langfristiger Rohstoffzyklus und Abgeltungssteuer ab 2009

Gehören Sie auch nach 2009 zu den Gewinnern mit niedriger Kapitalsteuerbelastung!

Die meisten werden sich jetzt fragen, was hat denn der Rohstoffzyklus mit der kommenden Abgeltungssteuer (ab 01.01.2009) zu tun. Auf den ersten Blick sehr wenig. Betrachtet man jedoch die aktuelle Rohstoffhausse im Rahmen der langfristigen Kapitalmarktzyklik (siehe Abbildung unten: Wechsel zwischen primärer Aktien- und Rohstoff-Hausse findet durchschnittlich alle 18 Jahre statt), dann ergeben sich hier doch einige Anknüpfungspunkte. Deshalb sollte sich ein langfristig orientierter Investor auch rechtzeitig auf die neue Besteuerung einstellen.

Source: All formats Barry Bannister, Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc. Used by permission of Barry Bannister. For the U.S. stock market index: For the period 1871 to present the Cowles Commission U.S. stock market composite data from Standard & Poor's Corporation are joined with S&P 500 12-month annual average prices. For the PPI for All Commodities: For data from 1871 to 1890, the Warren & Pearson study, a U.S. commodity average constructed from the following components: farm products, foods, hides and leather, textiles, fuel and lighting, metals and metal products, building materials, chemicals and drugs, household furnishing goods, spirits, and other commodities. For the periods 1891 to 1913, the source is the Wholesale Commodities Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other agencies. For the period 1914 to present, the source is the PPI for All Commodities modern series.

Ab 2009 kassiert das Finanzamt für alle Einkünfte aus Kapitalvermögen (Zinsen, Dividenden und Kursgewinne) pauschal 25 Prozent plus Solidaritätszuschlag und Kirchensteuer (insgesamt 26,375 Prozent). D.h. mit Einführung der Abgeltungssteuer wird die bis dahin geltende Spekulationsfrist abgeschafft und jeder Kursgewinn, egal wie lange die Haltedauer des Wertpapiers ist, muss versteuert werden. Realisierte Kursgewinne aus Wertpapieren werden dadurch generell für immer steuerpflichtig. Werden die Aktien, Renten, Zertifikate (ohne Garantie) oder Investmentfonds vor dem 01.01.2009 gekauft und mindestens ein Jahr lang behalten, dann gilt weiter das alte Recht: Kursgewinne sind steuerfrei!

Was hat diese neue Kapitalsteuer nun mit dem langfristigen Rohstoffzyklus zu tun?

Jeder langfristig orientierte Investor, der aktuell (vor dem 01.01.2009) im Rohstoffsektor engagiert ist, wird seine Gewinne bis zum Top des derzeitigen Hausse-Zyklus auf alle Fälle steuerfrei vereinnahmen können. Jedoch was macht er nach dem Top, sofern er es als langfristigen Hochpunkt überhaupt realisiert? Bleibt er weiter steuersparend in seinem Rohstoff-Wertpapier investiert und verliert seine zuvor erwirtschafteten Gewinne in der anschließenden Rohstoffbaisse. Oder realisiert er seine Kursgewinne am Top und zahlt zukünftig die Abgeltungssteuer. Es gibt nicht nur ein "entweder oder" sondern auch eine mögliche "und"-Kombination. Dabei braucht der Investor ein Wertpapier, dass solange wie die Rohstoffhausse dauert, schwerpunktmäßig im Rohstoffsektor investiert und dann am Top wieder in den Standardaktienmarkt wechselt. Also ein benchmarkunabhängiges Investment, mit aktivem Beta (Wechsel der Anlageklasse, wenn nötig), wie unsere beiden Fonds als Beispiel:

NOAH-Mix OP (WKN: 979 953)
GR Dynamik OP (WKN: A0H 0W9)

In beiden Investmentfonds zusammen befinden sich zirka 100 Rohstoffaktien, weltweit diversifiziert. Beide Investmentfonds sind keine "Klon-Fonds", d.h. kein Unternehmen wird jeweils in einem anderen Sondervermögen vorkommen (außer bei Fusionen). Ein Investor beider Fonds hat einen erhöhten Diversifikationsgrad im globalen Rohstoff-Markt. Sobald sich die Rohstoffhausse ihrem Ende nähert, werden wir uns aus diesem Segment mit unseren beiden Fonds verabschieden, so wie wir es im Frühjahr 2000 bei den Standardaktien vollzogen haben. Wir spielen die langfristige Kapitalmarktzyklik (Primärwechsel zwischen Rohstoff- und Standardaktien) und bieten mit beiden Wertpapieren aktives Beta in einem benchmarklosen "Absolute-Return-Konzept". Dies ist besonders interessant im Rahmen der kommenden Abgeltungssteuer.

Obwohl Investoren noch etwas Zeit bleibt (bis zum 31.12.2008), sollte bald gehandelt werden. Nur wer sein Depot rechtzeitig darauf einstellt, kann die kommende zusätzliche Belastung begrenzen.

© Uwe Bergold
Global Resources Invest GmbH & Co. KG (http://www.grinvest.de/)

mama mia
07.04.2007, 10:56
Have the commercial gold traders finally lost their grip?

By Peter Degraaf http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/bio.gif (javascript:biowindow('bio.html','BIO','top=50,left=200,width=575,height=400')) http://www.kitco.com/images/mailicon.gif (ITISWELL@COGECO.CA) http://www.kitco.com/images/printicon.gif (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/printerfriendly/apr042007p.html)
April 04, 2007

Many gold traders get spooked when the commercial gold traders (a.k.a. the COT’s) are loaded to the gills with ‘net short’ positions. (Total of long contracts minus short positions). In the past, it was a safe bet to say that the higher the total of net shorts, the closer gold was to a top, and the lower the number, the closer the POG was to a bottom.

During the past three years every bottom was marked by a net short position of less than 116,000. Until March 23rd that is. On that Friday the total was 130,00 and yet the market turned up.

It actually bottomed a week or so earlier at 138,000.

While we cannot know for sure, we can surmise that the commercial traders did not have a chance at that high level, to ‘load up for bear’, as is their custom.

To illustrate the point, here is a chart, (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/))


The commercial traders thrive on a large difference between the number of net short positions from top to bottom. Here is the breakdown, from the past 3 years.

#1 195,000 less 54,000 = 141,000
#2 172,000 less 115,000 = 57,000
#3 155,000 less 80,000 = 75,000
#4 120,000 less 81,000 = 39,000
#5 168,000 less 130,000 = 38,000
The commercial traders cannot be happy when they have to settle for a net difference from top to bottom of less than 40,000 contracts, when they are used to numbers as high at 141,000 In other words, the bulls are no longer as intimidated by the commercials, when the net short position reaches 168,000 as it did in February, nor are they any longer afraid to buy when the commercials are still net short by 130,000 contracts.

While the past is no guarantee that future events will unfold in similar fashion, and current data referred to here is short, nevertheless it will be interesting to see what happens at the next top and subsequent bottom. It could be that the commercial traders are slowly ‘losing their grip’.


Featured is the XAU index of mining stocks. We saw a breakout from congestion at 140 yesterday, that augers well for mining stocks, as there is lots of open sky until we reach resistance at 150 (red arrow).


Featured is the daily bar chart for silver. We need a breakout here at 13.50 similar to the breakout we saw in the XAU index, yesterday. A move above 13.50 for silver will trigger an acceleration in the move that will carry silver to the top of the 11 month channel. The blue arrows are targets for this move.

Summary: Things look positive for the bulls, whereas the commercials must be less than happy. They will likely have their day again sometime in the future, but for now they appear to have lost some of their power.

Happy trading!


mama mia
07.04.2007, 19:23
Gold & Silver
Precious Metals


Gold had a good week rallying up $11.70 to close the week out at $669 (+1.78%). It was the highest daily close of the week and the highest weekly close in 5 weeks.

The weekly chart below clearly distinguishes the long term trend line that continues to remain above its 65 week moving average. The rising trend line has support at just under $650.00, while the 65 ema comes in at $604.50.

Next up is the point & figure chart for GLD, the gold exchange traded fund. It shows a bullish trend with a significant upside price projection.

Below is one of our favorites: the long term chart of gold going back to 1975.

As you can clearly see, prices peaked in the late 70's at over $750.00, and have recently rallied up to $730.40. In the process a cup formation has been constructed on the chart. Presently gold has been in a trading range just below the rim of the cup on the right hand side of the chart.

If the POG rallies back up through its $730.40 high and on through $750.00 - a very strong cup with a handle formation will be in place with a break out that would signify the gold bull is very strong and entering a new phase. We expect that to happen this year, possibly within a few months time.

Next is the industrial metals compared to the price of gold. Since late October of 2006 gold has been out performing the industrial metals, which prior to that time had been the leader.

Since the peak in late October of 2006, gold has been out performing until about mid-Feb. of 2007. From mid-Feb. to mid-March the industrial metals rallied back to their fib retracement level of 61.8%, and have since started to fall once again, meaning gold has been out performing as of late.

Below is the chart of the silver exchange traded fund (SLV). It is presently right at the top of a resistance band and is trying to break out above. A close above 135 that holds would be bullish.

The second chart below is the point and figure chart for silver, which shows a bullish price projection of $21.50.

Hui Index

The Hui Index was down 3.20 for the week, closing out at 337.66 (-0.94%). The daily chart below shows a symmetrical triangle that is getting narrower by the day. Price will soon break out to the upside or downside.

Notice the series of higher lows that have been kept in place. Significant resistance resides overhead just over the 360 level.

Next up is another daily chart of the Hui; this one has a much shorter time frame, and tends to focus in on the more recent price action.

Notice the Bollinger bands on the chart. The upper BB is at 348.67 and the lower one is at 315.60. In between the two is the middle band at 332.17.

The index just recently banged up against the upper BB line and has since retreated to 337.66, which is 5 points above the middle BB. If prices do not hold right around the middle band then the lower band will become a target. Stochastics are turning over and down.

Below is the point and figure chart for gold that shows a bullish price project of 412.

Gold/Xau Ratio

Readings of 5 or higher have coincided with oversold levels and market bottoms. A spike back above 5 from which the ratio has recently fallen would most likely give a good entry point.

Individual Gold Stocks

Below are some gold stocks that we own or have owned in our portfolio and are watching for further possible accumulation.


We are cautious with the overall stock market and sense there is more downside to come. We prefer to stay on the sidelines except with selected precious metal and energy stocks.

Even with the pm and energy stocks one most remain cautious, as any serious downdraft in the overall market will most likely affect all stocks. We do not see any imminent danger, but storm clouds on the distant horizon.

Any surprises with interest rates will be to the upside. This is because of the derivative mess and carry trade orgies, which when they start to unwind will cause quite a stir.

The world is afloat with paper fiat debt money. The sub-prime problems will get worse before they get better, not only in the US but elsewhere as well.

The Fed and other CB's will react to these events as they do to all events: they create more credit and debt. This will not be unseen by gold, as a matter of fact gold will sound the warning before hand.

Short term the gold stocks appear overbought and in need of a bit more rest/consolidation before beginning a sustainable leg up. We look to accumulate selected stocks on weakness that holds above previous lows.


Stop by our website and check out the complete market wrap, which covers most major markets. There is also a lot of information on gold and silver, not only from an investment point of view, but also from its position as being the mandated monetary system of our Constitution - Silver and Gold Coins as in Honest Weights and Measures.

There is also a live bulletin board where you can discuss the markets with people from around the world and many other resources too numerous to list. Drop by and check it out. Good luck. Good trading. Good health. And that's a wrap.

April 3, 2007

Come visit our new website: Honest Money Gold & Silver Report (http://www.honestmoneyreport.com/)

mama mia
09.04.2007, 22:32
Gold closes down, tracking lower crude oil prices [/url]

By [url="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B25c382b9-4d90-41d2-a864-1e6ad3c6c173%7D&siteid=mktw"]Polya Lesova (http:///), MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:20 PM ET Apr 9, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped Monday, reversing early-session gains, as falling crude-oil prices and the rising dollar weakened demand for the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery ended down $2.50 at $676.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
With economic data lacking until the latter half of the week, "gold will have to find its bearing on internal market conditions and show strength or weakness based mainly on the appetite of physical buyers and the gut feelings of speculative institutionals," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
On Thursday, the contract rose $2 to close at $679.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its strongest closing level since Feb. 27.
"Gold's ability to withstand a marked increase in central bank sales recently implies that physical demand is quite strong," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.
"In addition, another failed attempt to cap the gold price by the shorts has led to a breakout on the charts."
Crude futures fell sharply Monday, as traders dismissed news that Iran can produce nuclear fuel on an "industrial scale."
Crude oil for May delivery fell $2.65, or 4.12%, at $61.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-contract-falls-4-risk/story.aspx?guid=%7B52C5E34A%2DDDF8%2D4D3F%2D815B%2D65E4B8759DB7%7D)
The dollar hovered near a six-week high against Japan's yen and rose slightly against the euro Monday, as traders continued to react to growth in U.S. nonfarm payrolls for March that were much stronger than expected. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-hovers-around-six-week-high/story.aspx?guid=%7B4A12DB1D%2DE05C%2D445D%2DA66A%2D5B250C29C68A%7D)
'Gold's ability to withstand a marked increase in central bank sales recently implies that physical demand is quite strong.'
— Peter Grandich, The Grandich Letter
The dollar had rallied Friday after the report showed the U.S. economy added 180,000 jobs last month, higher than the 168,000 projected in a survey of economists by MarketWatch. The report raised the prospect that the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates may be a further hike rather than a cut.
Other metals prices were mixed. May silver ended down 7 cents at $13.81 an ounce, while May copper rose 12.90 cents at $3.5060 a pound. July platinum fell $1.60 at $1,264.30 an ounce, while June palladium rose $1.60 at $358.0 an ounce.
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks rose 199,679 troy ounces to stand at 7.3 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to New York Mercantile Exchange data. Silver supplies rose 547,272 troy ounces to stand at 127 million troy ounces, while copper supplies were unchanged at 36,355 short tons.

mama mia
10.04.2007, 19:41
...da er ja auch über Gold schreibt ;):D

Verfasst von Dr. Marc Faber (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=13) am 10.04.2007 um 7:30 Uhr
Die meisten Investoren steuern auf große Verluste zu

Als eifriger Beobachter von ökonomischen, sozialen und finanziellen Trends denke ich, dass wir uns auf eine der faszinierendsten Perioden der ökonomischen Geschichte zu bewegen. Es wird auch eine Zeit sein, in der die meisten Investoren große Verluste machen werden.

Lassen Sie mich das erklären. Die Aktien der meisten Sub-Prime-Kreditgeber erreichten ihr Hoch schon gegen Ende 2004. Im Verlauf des Jahres 2006 wurde immer deutlicher, dass sich der Zustand des Immobilienmarktes verschlechterte. Aber die Investoren kauften diese Aktien weiterhin, da die Kurs/Gewinn-Verhältnisse niedrig waren und Analysten sie weiterhin empfahlen. Außerdem erzählte die Fed den Investoren weiterhin, dass das Schlimmste im Immobilienmarkt ausgestanden war!

Bedenken Sie aber Folgendes: In der Nähe von Marktspitzen, oder wenn ein Sektor kurz vor seinem Hoch steht, sind die Schlagzeilen immer positiv. Die meisten Analysten werden auch einem Sektor, der sich genau an der Spitze des Marktes befindet, großteils positive Aussichten zuschreiben - erinnern Sie sich an die High-Tech-Aktien im Jahr 2000?

Weiters ist das Kurs/Gewinn-Verhältnis in der Nähe von Marktspitzen regelmäßig niedrig, denn das Problem ist weniger der Kurs als der Gewinn. 1929 lagen die Kurse am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt unter dem 14-fachen der Gewinne. Dann kollabierten aber die Gewinne und die Aktien fielen um 90%.

Verluste vermeiden

Wie sollte also ein Investor durch diese schwierigen Zeiten navigieren? In Zukunft wird es wichtiger sein, Verluste zu vermeiden, als riesige Gewinne zu machen. Aufgrund des schwächeren Immobilienmarktes und der Probleme im Bereich der Sub-Prime-Kredite ist eine Quelle für überflüssige Liquidität ausgetrocknet.

Obwohl es eine unreife Schlussfolgerung wäre, dass Probleme im Sub-Prime-Kreditmarkt sich ausdehnen werden, ist das Risiko gestiegen, dass strengere Kredit-Auflagen sich auf den gesamten Kapitalmarkt ausbreiten werden. Und die ersten Leidtragenden von geringerer internationaler Liquidität wären die aufstrebenden Märkte.

Der indische Aktienmarkt verzeichnete einen großen Aufschwung seit 2003 - beginnend, zugegebenermaßen, von einem sehr gedrückten Niveau. 2007 stieg der Sensex bis 9. Februar um 6,9%, brach dann aber plötzlich um 7,4% ein, insgesamt ist der Markt im bisherigen Jahresverlauf um 1,2% gefallen. Ähnlich zeigt auch der chinesische Aktienmarkt alle Symptome einer Aktien-Manie und ein Ausstieg wäre schlau.

Gold wird outperformen :)

Die Anlagemärkte sind, mit sehr wenigen Ausnahmen, überkauft und könnten einige Enttäuschungen bringen. Gold und Silber sollten sich in jedem Fall (knappes oder leichtes Geld) besser entwickeln als US-amerikanische Finanzanlagen.

Obwohl ich glaube, dass die Fed langfristig keine andere Möglichkeit haben wird, als Geld zu drucken und erneut zu aggressiven Zinssenkungen zu greifen, könnte die Schwäche eines Marktes - Immobilien - sich nun auf andere Anlagemärkte ausdehnen, darunter industrielle Rohstoffe und Edelmetalle. Gleichzeitig bestehen aber kaum Zweifel, dass Mr. Bernanke der beste Freund des Edelmetalls ist.

Nach einem enttäuschenden Jahr 2006 könnten japanische Anlagen 2007, relativ gesehen, für eine Überraschung gut sein. Verglichen mit US-amerikanischen Haushalten halten japanische Investoren nur einen sehr geringen Anteil ihrer Finanzanlagen in Aktien. Außerdem ist der japanische Yen für Exporteure günstig geworden.

© Dr. Marc Faber - http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=4258

mama mia
10.04.2007, 19:42
Dollar and gold

Jack Chan
www.simplyprofits.org (http://www.simplyprofits.org/)
posted Apr 10, 2007

For the past few weeks, we have prepared our subscribers with special tutorials on how to position in the gold sector during the next impulsive phase, with specific instructions on how to enter the market before, during, and after a major breakout is confirmed. Now that our trading and investment plans are firmly in place, we will take the leisure of seeing the markets from a technical perspective, and get a glimpse of the future which is unfolding for us in the next few weeks. Remember, we trade/invest according to our plans, and not our analysis. Technical analysis is nothing more than an educated guess.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan041007/1.gif All eyes are on the US dollar. The strong bounce in 2005 has provided some hope that the dollar was on a recovery, and therefore, gold would begin a lengthy correction. However, USD continues to struggle below trendline resistance, and is now poised to test the low near the 80 level. The next few weeks is very pivotal.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan041007/2.gif In this chart, we can see that the pivotal event will take place in the next few weeks, as USD may test the low near 80, while gold may test the high at $725. Naturally, a USD breakdown will likely coincide with a gold breakout. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a double bottom for USD and a double top for gold. If and when that happens, we could be looking at a lengthy corrective bounce in the USD, and an equally lengthy corrective sell off in gold.

To keep the gold breakout/dollar breakdown scenario alive, the support in gold and resistance in USD must not be violated.

Technical analysis is widely misunderstood and mis-used by practitioners and non practitioners alike. Because TA can only tell us what has happened, and what is happening, but cannot tell us what will happen. There is a big difference between what is likely to happen and what will actually happen. Long term successful trading and investing does not require a crystal ball, and there isn't one anyways. What is required is a consistent trading/investment plan and the discipline to manage risk. Currently, we are partially positioned in the gold sector, and look to continue to add to positions upon set ups, and will become fully invested upon a major breakout and a new closing high. Stops are also in place to keep risk acceptable and manageable.

We do not predict, but we can prepare.

End of report

Apr 6, 2007
Jack Chan
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/simplyprofits.jpg (http://www.simplyprofits.org/)Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jack+Chan)
email: jack@simplyprofits.org
website: www.simplyprofits.org (http://www.simplyprofits.org/)


mama mia
10.04.2007, 19:44
Gold's Performance During Recessions - April 9, 2007
Much has been made recently about gold's use as a hedge against poor stock market returns. Unfortunately, this strategy has some holes in it. While it is true that gold tends to perform in the opposite direction as stocks during secular markets, it tends to perform similarly to stocks during shorter cyclical time periods.

From 1966-1982, when the S&P 500 did nothing, gold went from $35/oz. to over $800/oz. During this secular commodity bull market, stocks certainly performed in opposition to gold. However, when breaking down these 16 years into shorter time frames, it is noteworthy to understand when gold made its biggest runs. Between 1970-1973, the stock market performed decently well, while the gold market performed very well. However, in the 1973-1974 time frame, both markets took a strong beating, with the S&P losing some 40% and the gold market being cut in half. Once the carnage was complete, both markets recovered in late 1974, and began rising in conjugation once again. Stocks rose a little, while gold rose another 800%. While their rise certainly was not symmetric in nature, it is important to understand that both the gold and US stock markets rose and fell in tandem. After 16 years, the sum total of all that those cyclical markets showed gold up 2000% with the S&P unchanged.

Something similar is likely to occur during this commodity super cycle, and in fact, it has already begun. Gold's rise from late 2002 to today is far superior to the overall market's returns. However, when the US market falls, and the economy follows suit, it will likely bring the gold market down with it. This not only makes sense fundamentally, but is backed up by historical precedence. In Gorton and Rouwenhorst's paper published in 2004, gold's performance since 1959 mirrored the performance of stocks during any given part of the economic cycle. Gorton and Rouwenhorst showed that the early recessionary period was the worst time frame for both stocks and gold, while both sectors performed very well during the late recessionary period.

For those investors wanting a hedge against stock market volatility, gold may not necessarily be the right investment. Gold's performance is highly correlated with the stock market's performance during cyclical 3-5 year periods, and better hedges exist, such as agricultural futures or even TIPS (Inflation protected bonds. Yes, the government lies about inflation, but at least it provides some hedge). Passive investors willing to ride out the storm for 10-15 years may find gold to be an excellent market hedge. Until then, however, expect gold and stocks to rise and fall in tandem.

mama mia
10.04.2007, 22:14
Gold hits 5-wk. high on dollar slide, trade tensions

By Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B398c56b2-bfb9-4871-849c-9042f26dc2de%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:06 PM ET Apr 10, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed to a five-week high Tuesday, as renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a slide in the U.S. dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery settled up $4.60, or 0.7%, at $681.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached a high of $686.80 in intraday trading, the highest price seen for that contract since Feb. 28.
"The U.S. currency took another hit this morning after overnight data showed a widening (actually a doubling) Chinese trade surplus," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Bullion was also bolstered by rising crude oil prices which showed strength after several sessions of significant weakness."
China's trade surplus widened to $46.4 billion from $23.3 billion. U.S. trade officials on Monday filed two cases against China before the World Trade Organization, charging that Beijing has failed to crack down on copyright violations on a wide range of products and maintaining barriers to trade in books, music, videos and movies. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-takes-chinese-piracy-complaints/story.aspx?guid=%7BEB997BEA%2D56D8%2D4B73%2D8776%2D7A4EEB9DB775%7D)
'The U.S. currency took another hit this morning after overnight data showed a widening (actually a doubling) Chinese trade surplus. Bullion was also bolstered by rising crude oil prices which showed strength after several sessions of significant weakness.'
— Jon Nadler, Kitco Bullion Dealers
"Many are expecting the dollar to come under some significant pressure in the near term with new rhetoric out of the U.S. government yesterday about another set of piracy and trade issues with China," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard.
"Again, this is a slippery slope and should the US ramp up the trade sanctions and protectionist trade policies, China will hit back," he said. "[Since China is] one of the largest holders of our treasuries and dollar denominated assets, it doesn't take long to figure out how they could hurt the U.S. economy the most."
China on Tuesday expressed "great regret and strong dissatisfaction" at the decision. "The decision runs contrary to the consensus between the leaders of the two nations about strengthening bilateral economic and trade ties and properly solving trade disputes," said Wang Xinpei, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce, in a news release. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/china-says-us-piracy-complaint/story.aspx?guid=%7B2C1A69E9%2DF829%2D468E%2D8C85%2D740A7D4D406F%7D)
The dollar fell across the board Tuesday, hitting a two-year low vs. the euro.
The dollar "enters a new selling wave" as the U.S. trade action "is fuelling speculation of retaliatory acts from Beijing , which has already reported it will not attend this week's [Group of Seven] meeting in Washington, D.C.," said Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign-exchange analyst at CMC Markets in New York. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-falls-two-year-low-vs/story.aspx?guid=%7B1E00AA0B%2D9C59%2D4F7F%2D92B3%2DB8695F72E4C2%7D)
James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said: "Gold again looks well-placed to continue higher both short and long-term with negative dollar sentiment likely to be the main catalyst in the coming sessions."
"Oil prices seem to have found some stability and may look to add additional momentum as we head towards peak summer demand period," Moore said. "Resistance in gold is now pegged at $684/89, but having spent some time consolidating the metal may now look to challenge $700."
Crude-oil futures rallied Tuesday, recovering from prior-session losses, as demand for energy is expected to remain strong through the summer season.
Crude oil for May delivery rose 48 cents to $62.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract closed down $2.77, or 4.3%, at $61.51 a barrel. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-oil-natural-gas-rise/story.aspx?guid=%7B4EBFB2DE%2DF372%2D4C10%2D8098%2D0D732274378C%7D)
"The gold market is being driven by investment demand, which saw another 6.15 tons of gold bought in the last two days," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "Add to this the start up of more Indian gold exchange-traded funds and now an announcement of one to come in Japan."
"All these represent long-term buyers of gold, but they have set a pattern of being particularly vigorous buyers when the gold price rises," Phillips said.
"Global uncertainty as represented by the dollar, oil, China, political pressures, acts as a tide encouraging investment into gold, as an underlying driving force," he said.
Other metals prices also gained. May silver settled up 12.0 cents at $13.930 an ounce on NYMEX.
"Silver is looking set for further gains short-term as the improved sentiment in gold and the phenomenal movements in the base metals seem set to draw further interest from investors and speculators," Moore said.
July platinum settled up $9.30 at $1,273.60 an ounce on NYMEX, while June palladium closed up $5.45 at $363.45 an ounce.
"Platinum was in part aided this morning by a UBS AG report which raised its forecasts for platinum because of demand from automakers that use the metal in car parts to reduce harmful emissions," Nadler said. The forecast price for platinum in 2008 was increased 9% to $1,200 an ounce.
"I think the continuing tide of rising awareness and need to do something about global warming is playing right into platinum's hand (and palladium now at a 10 month high plus rhodium plus uranium) and could continue for some time, regardless of possible corrections in gold," Nadler said.
China's copper imports rise sharply
China imported some 307,000 tons of copper in March, increasing its total imports for the first quarter of this year to 776,576 tons.
"This once again suggests that the picture was distorted earlier in the year by reports that China's apparent consumption was falling, when indeed it was just destocking," said William Adams, analyst at BaseMetals.com. "Indeed March's level of imports was a new monthly record."
May copper rose 2 cents to settle at $3.526 a pound on NYMEX. In the previous session, the contract closed up 12.90 cents at $3.5060 a pound.
"Today is likely to see volatile trading as traders adjust their positions following such a strong move over the Easter holiday, but with the copper spread drifting again it suggests there is some profit-taking going on," Adams said. "At these heights it would not be surprising to see some significant pullback, although dips are likely to be well supported."
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 7.3 million troy ounces as of late Monday, according to New York Mercantile Exchange data. Silver supplies fell 604,947 troy ounces to stand at 126.4 million troy ounces, while copper supplies were unchanged at 36,355 short tons.

mama mia
11.04.2007, 10:06
....bissle lang - ich finde es lohnt sich auch vor dem Market Commentary ;)

April Newsletter
Life's Unintended Consequences

Enrico Orlandini
Apr 10, 2007
written on Apr 8, 2007

As most of you know by now I live and work in Lima, Peru. When I first started this business back in 2001 I was actually living in Italy. After a three year absence I moved back to Lima in 2002 and took my ten or so clients with me. How come I only had ten clients? I suppose it had something to do with the fact that I specialized in gold and silver and would tell anyone with ears that gold was going to US $3,000 an ounce. When you say something like that, you are immediately labeled "one of those". My prediction sounded a lot crazier in 2002 than it does now. As gold has gone up so has my client base. Life in Lima probably sounds 'exotic' and 'tropical' but it really isn't. It's really quite harsh, dirty, disorderly, and corrupt. It's kind of like Detroit but with an attitude. I live in Lima due to convenience, habit, and because that's where the Universities are. My daughter is in her freshman year and I don't want her to go overseas just yet. When she's gone, and my grandson goes with her, I know the 'nest' will be empty and that part of my life will be over. It's not something I look forward to so I guess I'm trying to postpone the inevitable. That's human nature!

When I want to escape the trials and tribulations of everyday existence in Lima and ponder life's mysteries, I leave the Capital and go to a place called Lunahuana. It's a little berg located 175 kilometers south and east of Lima. There's almost no crime and it's really quite clean. I have a small hotel situated at the base of a mountain overlooking the Cañete river rapids. These rapids are fairly well known throughout Europe, and from my perch on the top floor I can watch the tourists rush by; sometimes upside down. Usually it's a comical sight but every once in a while comedy turns to tragedy. Someone's head collides with a boulder and the boulder almost always wins. Personally, I like my water in a glass right next to another glass of good single malt whisky (never mix the two or millions of Scottish ghosts will haunt you for eternity). That's as adventurous as I care to get.

I'm in Lunahuana right now and as I said before I come here to ponder and I have been doing a lot of pondering lately. People are really confused right now and that confuses me. Here's an example: more than one client has told me that he/she is really worried about gold and by implication thought I should be too. I told them I was worried about a lot of things in life, but gold was one of the few things that doesn't worry me. What causes me to ponder is the very phrase "worried about gold". It displays a lack of understanding as to just what gold is and the purpose it serves. Gold is a store of wealth, the only true store of wealth in today's world, and it is insurance against real problems. Although it's been around for five thousand years, it can be manipulated over the short run, but it cannot be debased over the long run. Like an old farmer once told me, the cream always rises to the top and gold is the financial cream. To worry about gold is the equivalent of worrying if the sun is going to come up tomorrow morning. I don't worry about gold, but I do worry why gold is rising in such a relentless fashion [1] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007.html#1) . What does gold see in our future that is so bad that is has almost tripled in price over a six year period (almost unnoticed I might add)? Additionally it has many intelligent analysts projecting that it will triple again by the end of the decade if not sooner. I don't know, no one does, but I do know I will find out and that is scary to say the least. If I had to guess I would say it has to do with two things: a serious escalation in Middle Eastern tensions, and its by-product, massive debt in the US. Mind you, this is just a guess.

As an aside, I would like to say that I almost never worry about any investment once I've placed my money. I do all my worrying before hand, but never after. I take great pains to turn over every stone possible before I make my bet. There is nothing worse than missing that little fact that was dangling right under your nose and would have warned you of impending financial indigestion. We've all done that at various times in our lives and it's not a pleasant feeling. There is no better teacher than a margin call!

So what else bothers me? Bush along with US domestic and foreign policy just scare the hell out of me. Did you ever know an accident was about to occur before it did? That's the way I view US policy. I could be selfish and say that what Bush does probably won't affect life here in Lunahuana much, if at all. But I have children and grandchildren who are going to grow up in the world Mr. Bush leaves behind and that is a troublesome thought to say the least. Unlike their father, they'll probably view Lunahuana as way too confining. The world is their oyster and there is nothing worse than an oyster gone bad. They just don't go down well at all. For as long as I can remember, I have always been able to project well out into the future and the things I see now are quite frightening. My fear is aggravated by the extremely high level of complacency that exists in absolutely every fiber of American society. How do you measure complacency? The market has its barometer and it's called the VIX which is short for Volatility Index. Take a look:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/1.gif I've been in the investment business for a while now and I don't recall such a prolonged period of high PER's, low dividend yields, and low VIX readings. Either everyone has ice water running through their veins or everyone is piled over on the wrong side of the boat. Any bets on how that will end?

There are rumblings in the US political scene right now that have an ominous look to it. Bush has said he will not sign any spending bill that includes a timetable for an Iraq pullout and that includes emergency spending bills. Here's a man that's been fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq for almost five years, has nothing to show for it, and yet he's arrogant enough to say "it's my way or the highway". Polls asking Americans if the feel safer today than they did five years ago show the majority answer in the negative. Thanks to the prior Congress's stupidity, the President enjoyed a free ride at the expense of the American public and the American soldier, and now that the silver spoon has been taken away, he's not a happy camper. What could be running through his mind right now? He knows that a veto will cause the US government to run out of money and that will cause a significant portion of US activity to grind to a halt. I think the IRS alone employs almost one million people and I'm sure they've become accustomed to taking a paycheck home on a regular basis. And what happens to the soldiers abandoned in Iraq if the US can't pay its bills for any reason? Then we have the political repercussions. There is already a move underway to impeach Bush and it's not just Democrats behind it. There are certain elements within the Republican Party that would be willing to support such a measure under certain circumstances and Bush is aware of this. This is not good and I am not the only one to pick up on this. This quote is from last week's Economist:

"Many people will rejoice at the sight of a besieged White House and Mr. Bush and Dick Cheney ducking for cover. But regardless of what you think about the most inept of presidencies, the current civil war in Washington has the making of a tragedy -- both for America and for millions of people around the globe. For instance, the Doha trade round, with which so many Democrats are keen to play politics, could lift millions of the world's most wretched inhabitants out of poverty, there is a huge amount that president and Congress would and should collaborate on, from immigration reform to the care of the elderly. For such huge gains to be sacrificed, voters will surely demand good reasons."

As intelligent as this comment seems, I think it grossly underestimates Bush as a person. He is a man on a mission and he isn't about to fold up his tent and go quietly into the night.

Well, if he isn't willing to negotiate and he isn't willing to take no for an answer, then what's left? I have a thought on the subject and I am going to share it with you even though I may be way off. Bush is bound and determined to do things his way and I don't see him changing at this late stage. He does have one alternative: if Congress doesn't give him what he wants he could declare martial law, suspend the US Constitution and Congress along with it, and virtually rule as a Dictator. At the same time he could/would introduce some sweeping Patriot Act like changes including travel restrictions, confiscation of certain assets like gold and silver, a prohibition on the transfer of funds overseas, limiting freedom of the press (even more than it already is), and much more. There would be no fourth Amendment rights, no right to legal council, no right to bear arms, and so on... In short, Guantanamo would come to the US. I keep on turning this over in my mind and I see the path he's taken and look outward and I just don't see any other way for him to go and still be true to himself. It's always possible that when push comes to shove, he'll find a new religion and choose a different path. It seems to me that such a conversion will be no less than an admission of failure and the crowning fiasco in what could possibly go down in history as one of the worse Presidencies ever. Mr. Bush has his ego and I just can't see him going through the rest of his life with that cross on his shoulder. Nixon was able to handle it, and even overcome it to a degree, but Bush is no Nixon.

Finally, I would like to close with the one thing that really worries me. During the Cold War the Russians, Americans, and Chinese spent fortunes inventing all types of horrible weapons; some we know about but most we don't. The old Soviet Union spent so much money building weapons of mass destruction that it actually came apart at the seams. Now we are left with modern day Russia and a bunch of satellites run by various thugs and thieves. Some would even go so far as to argue the Russia is run by a thug. My point is this: no one knows where all of these weapons are and there are people out there willing to sell anything and everything for and account in Switzerland with six zeros behind a number. There are also people out there with a real (or perceived) ax to grind and they are willing to die in order to do it. Our problem as westerners is that we tend to focus on everything with an ethnocentric pair of glasses. Other cultures don't have that problem. Having lived in a third world country (some would argue that it's a fourth world country) for more than two decades, I've come to recognize a major difference: life has little or no meaning for most people in these countries. When I first came to Peru, I used to wonder how people could just step out into oncoming traffic and cross a busy highway without so much as a glance. I thought it was a local phenomenon but then I experienced the same thing in Bolivia and Ecuador. It finally dawned on me that to die simply puts an end to their suffering. Every morning they get out of bed, they struggle to find food, shelter, and clothing, and on most days they fail. To make matters worse they have a wife and children whom they can't help. Death puts an end to all of that... a better life is how some religious groups refer to it [2] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007.html#2).

People who fit into this category are actively being recruited by other people who are less than scrupulous and some of these recruiters have real money. Here's where my fear comes into play. It is not all that difficult to buy a significant weapon. Then you put it in the hands of a group of individuals who have nothing to lose and they detonate it. Once that genie is out of the bottle, you will never get it back in. Meanwhile Bush is nation-building, whatever that is, and alienating people left and right. We live in very dangerous times and we are making enemies at an alarming rate. It's just a question of time before there is an incident that will change the world, the way we perceive each other, and the way we interact. That is a change I am not looking forward to.


Editor's note: Readers in a hurry can zoom down to the gold, silver and HUI commentary by clicking here (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007.html#gold).

I find the debate regarding the future path of interest rates to be one of the most fascinating issues going on in today's markets. The futures have priced in two to three rate cuts later this year and yet bond prices continue to fall. As of late the tide has begun to shift and some are talking about possible rate hikes. Even some of the Federal Reserve presidents have implied that the threat of inflation may require eventual rate hikes and the bonds seem to confirm that; at least for the moment. The direction that rates choose will be very, very important and will have consequences, intended and otherwise. These consequences are a real dilemma for the Federal Reserve and I don't believe there are any simple answers. Interest rates and housing are joined at the hip and housing isn't doing too well as the following weekly chart of the Housing Index demonstrates:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/2.gif Keep in mind this chart is dealing with history and probably has yet to factor in the full affects of the "sub-prime" debacle. Sub-prime has to do with "no income verification" loans as well as other types of mortgages that allow people to get in way over their heads. A person with a forty thousand dollar a year income can buy a two hundred thousand dollar house and initially make payments of less than one hundred dollars a month. Before the housing market topped these buyers would refinance and take the extra cash from an appreciated asset. Appreciating home values are the only thing that has fueled consumption for a number of years now. Now these same assets are depreciating while mortgage rates have risen somewhat and the monthly payments have skyrocketed. That has led to a large number of defaults. A further increase in rates by the Federal Reserve could make a bad situation far worse than most imagine.

What happens if the Fed doesn't raise rates or even decides to lower them as the futures market seems to indicate? On the plus side you may postpone a disaster in the housing sector while on the negative side there is a lot of competition for foreign capital. It now appears other central banks around the world don't have any compunction about raising rates. It is now becoming painfully obvious that foreign capital is now searching out other ports [3] (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007.html#3). That is going to make placement of US debt a difficult task. As I see it, the US Fed will have no choice but to monetarize US debt. Monetarization occurs when you print dollars to buy your own bonds and is very inflationary. I think the Fed is coming to realize that it is the only way out. Take a look at the weekly chart for the US bond:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/3.gif Note the ominous head-and-shoulders formation on the right hand side of the chart and Friday's close below the 200-wma. On Thursday the June bond futures contract closed down .08 at 111.01 and that is below the critical Fibonacci support at 111.05. That support now becomes resistance and there is further resistance at 112.11 while strong support is at 109.30 and 108.26. As coincidence would have it, the 108.26 also corresponding to the neckline formed by the aforementioned head-and-shoulders formation and will be critical.

In all honesty I was somewhat surprised to see the break of 111.05 as it represents the 50% retracement from the 260-day high back down to the 260-day low. I will be more than interested to see if we can close below it again on Monday. Right now we have RSI, MACD, and the histograms all headed in the same direction and that's down. Bonds are not even close to being oversold so the decline could still have legs. I have been short the bonds from 113.06 in spite of the fact that I believe the Fed will eventually be forced to lower rates. That will be a blow to the dollar and lower bond prices will eventually act as a drag on stocks. These are the unintended consequences I referred to earlier and it will be interesting to see how the Fed handles the transition. Lower rates are an admission that Fed policy failed and I don't think markets will take kindly to it. Although lower rates could be a short-term boom to bonds, I believe it will be a long-term bust as it will make bonds unappealing. Currently bonds could fall a bit more but I would be very surprised if we tested the neckline much less broke down through it. In fact I am seriously thinking of taking my profits on Monday and taking a seat on the sidelines.

Next we have the Dow which has taken a decidedly different turn (yet again) from what I would have imagined in early March. The June 07 Dow futures contract topped at 12,910 on February 20th and then began to fall off a cliff less than a week later. An intraday low of 12,035 was posted on March 14th and since then we've been in rally mode. Take a look at the daily chart for the cash Dow:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/4.gif Since posting the March 14th low, we have traced out a series of higher lows and higher highs. On Thursday the June Dow futures contract closed up 27 points at 12,622 and back within striking distance of the all-time high. I was originally looking for an 11,732 low and then a rally back up to a lower high on or about April 12th. That scenario is now in danger of collapsing and the key will be 12,671 in the June contract. Good Fibonacci support comes in at 12,433 and then 12,184. Finally, the February 27th break left a large gap down on the open. That gap runs from 12740 down to 12,690 and any attempt to fill it will more than likely lead to a test of the all-time high.

The rest of the indexes (Transports, S & P, Banking, and Consumer) are also at various stages of recovery. The Consumer index is the strongest and is the engine that has been driving the economy for four years now and is followed closely by the S & P Index. Transports seem to be having more difficulties than the Dow. Take a look below:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/5.gif Unlike the Dow, the Transports did not make a higher high this week and that is important as it was the Transportation Index that led the Dow to its all-time high. Now it's the Dow leading the way and that is another change in character. These changes are important as they usually signal a top is in, or at the very least, being formed.

One of the surprising changes has to do with the Banking Index. Its rise was just as relentless as the Consumer Index, but unlike the Consumer Index, it has yet to recover. Take a look at the daily chart below for the Banking Index:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/6.gif Thursday saw a test and marginal close above the 200-dma and I have to ask myself what this means. Initially, you could have attributed it to the loss of the Yen carry trade but I now believe it goes deeper than that. For four years the Fed has literally guaranteed banks a "free lunch" as they dropped rates to historic lows. This allowed banks a source of cheap money that they loaned out to US consumers at much higher rates. The banks made the spread and grew fat in the process. Think of it as the Greenspan Carry Trade! Although it's too early to tell, the chart above seems to be saying that the party is over. A combination of higher rates and a sub-prime hangover may be too much for the banks bottom line.

In conclusion, I believe there will be an attempt to fill the gap in the Dow and it should occur within the next two to three trading days. If we do manage to close it, we'll probably rally to a higher high, around 1,491.00 or even 1,521.00 in the cash S & P and it should come in on June 12th which would be 90 days from the low. This market has stuck to the 90 day cycle throughout and I don't expect that to change. Meanwhile I am short the Dow from 12,450 and will stay that way unless I see a new high.

Gold is one of my favorite subjects and I can never get enough of it. The June 07 Gold futures contract went into the Easter holiday at 679.4 and that is a new closing high for this leg up. Some months back I advised you that gold was going to a minimum of 775.0 before we would run out of steam and nothing has changed my mind. I also told you that we would have two 7% corrections and that is just what happened. Now I am going to tell you that gold is on the threshold of an explosive move to the upside; the type of move where you could see an advance of 100.0 within a seven to ten day period. We have overcome good resistance at 667.1, 672.5, and 687.0 is the next target followed by a test of the significant Fibonacci resistance at 696.0. It was this resistance that turned back the last rally but I don't think it will stop gold this time around. Here are the magic Fibonacci numbers with respect to the June 07 gold futures contract:

GOLD'S SUPPORT GOLD'S RESISTANCE 623.3 696.0 649.3 721.7 672.5 746.3 The 775.0 resistance number I referred to earlier is with respect to the spot price for gold and it should be enough to stop the current leg up, but that doesn't mean that it will. As usual, I like to put gold's activity into perspective and the best way to do that is to view the historical chart:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/7.gif This entire rally is nothing short of spectacular and what is even more fascinating is that the best is yet to come. You can see the May 2006 high of 732.0 and we are now within shouting distance ten months later. If there is one thing that makes me believe that we could go higher than 775.0, it is the fact that we have been consolidating gains for ten months. That could/should provide a powerful base for rally that may go well beyond 775.0 and could even challenge the all-time high at 882.5 but we'll just have to wait and see.

Silver, and to a lesser degree gold stocks are following in gold's footsteps. The May Silver futures contract closed up 12.0 at 1374.0 on Thursday and that is a new closing high for this leg up. Like gold, silver has a set of important Fibonacci numbers as well. They are as follows:

SILVER'S SUPPORT SILVER'S RESISTANCE 1,328.1 1,389.6 1,358.7 1,423.6 1,456.0 In all honesty, I see more upward potential in silver tight now than I do in gold and the following P & F chart for silver tends to agree with me:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/8.gif We have a bullish price objective of 21.5 and that is slightly above my 20.73 objective and more than 40% above Thursday's close. Silver appears to be leading gold at this point in time while gold stocks appear to be following both; or maybe dragged would be a better word. On Thursday the HUI closed down 1.87 to end the week at 354.15 and that is just below good Fibonacci resistance at 354.84. There is good Fibonacci support at 351.59 and 336.11. I have been vacillating about the future of gold stocks to the point that I sold 25% of my portfolio some weeks back. I still hold the same portfolio that I bought in September 2004 and it is as follows:

CASH = 25%

Actually the cash component is a bit misleading as I used it to but gold on the futures market. Take a look at the following weekly chart of the HUI:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/9.gif I have been wondering for weeks now if the HUI will follow gold up or the Dow down. As of today I do not have a definitive answer but as you can see above, the HUI is being compressed into a tighter and tighter range with a series of higher lows and lower highs. We are coming to a crucial moment in time where there will be a breakout in one direction or the other. Given the fact that this is a bull market, the odds heavily favor a breakout to the upside but the fly in the ointment could be the Dow. If the Dow rallies until mid-June than I suspect new highs will be made but if the Dow turns down this week, it might be a different story. We'll just have to wait and see. In the meantime I am long gold, silver, and gold stocks and that will not change.

Now we come to commodities. I have been bullish the CRB for almost as long as I've been bullish gold and the results have been just as agreeable. Originally I started out buying the CRB Index and then branched out into oil, copper, the grains, and cotton. Only cotton has been a laggard. The strange thing about it all is after a significant correction both oil and copper have begun to rally in spite of a slowing economy in the United States. Let's take a look at copper's daily chart:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/10.gif Last week's rally took the June 07 Copper futures contract above what was strong Fibonacci resistance at 328.90 when it closed at 337.70 and that only leaves resistance at 346.40. We are also back above the 50-wma and not all that far away from the all-time high at 377.00. Oil is following a similar pattern and the reason is Asia. Actually, it has to do with our lenders changing dollars for commodities and I suspect there will be a lot more where that came from. That's another one of those unintended consequences of printing dollars until the cows come home.

Grains are a relatively new position for me. After a couple of attempts at establishing a position, I finally had some success late last summer. I took initial positions in corn, wheat, and beans and added on as they rallied. Like all rallies, there have to be corrections and we have been experiencing one for the last five weeks. Actually wheat was the first to top out way back in October but it didn't stop corn and soybeans from making new highs right up through late February. I didn't add on because of wheat's weakness. I've felt for some time that wheat must participate or any rally will be short lived. I was looking for a blow out to the downside and the US government was kind enough to oblige. How did they do that? It was quite simple really; they issued a report on March 30th saying that farmers may have planted the most corn since 1944. That was all that was needed to produce a 20% correction and provide me with the first decent buying opportunity in quite some time. The same applies to soybeans. Take a look at the daily chart for the Grain index:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/11.gif Last week's government report led to a decline down to a 158.07 low before buyers finally showed up. We closed out on Thursday at 162.66 on fears of bad winter weather that could damage crops already in the ground. That weather materialized and I would not be surprised to see some more upside pressure early in the week. In any event, I am long grains and will stay that way for quite some time.

I would like to close out this newsletter with a discussion of the dollar, the king of unintended consequences. You see a declining US dollar makes US stocks and bonds a lot less attractive and it also means that we import inflation as a cheaper dollar raises the price of imports.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/12.gif Likewise most commodities are priced in UD dollars and a cheaper dollar means that foreigners can buy more and that is inflationary. The US dollar has been deteriorating for years now but we are approaching a critical juncture. Since topping out at 92.00 early last year we have broken support level after support level. Now last week we moved below the 82.92 Fibonacci support level and all that is left is some lesser support at 82.35 which is marginally below last week's intraweek low. The more I watch the dollar the more convinced I am that we will break below the multi-decade low of 80.50 sometime later this year.

So if you're not into US dollars, what is the alternative? As most of you know by now, I have been long the Swiss Franc for almost as long as I've been long gold. Then late last year I diversified into a group of what I call commodity based currencies. These are the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar and the results have been worth the effort. The following chart of the New Zealand dollar shows you what I mean:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini041007/13.gif Just last week we made a new 260-day high, and although we are somewhat overbought, I don't think we'll see any significant correction until gold runs out of gas. Aside from any temporary lift it can get from employment reports and other government statistics, the dollar will continue to decline and these currencies will continue to rally. There will be no reprieve for the US dollar.


1 - Please don't send me thousands of e-mails telling me that gold is stuck. I will simply refer you to gold's historical chart in order to make my point.

2 - This is in no way a criticism of any organized religion.

3 - The world's central Banks now hold the lowest percentage of dollars since 1999. It has dropped from 72.6% in 2002 to 64.7% in 2006. Recently many nations have made clear their intentions to diversify out of the dollar so this trend will only increase.

Apr 8, 2007
-Enrico Orlandini

For those of you interested in receiving information on the funds we manage, please feel free to e-mail us at ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com and we will respond as soon as possible.

email: ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com
website: www.dowtheoryanalysis.com
(http://www.dowtheoryanalysis.com/)Orlandini Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Enrico+Orlandini)

Ignacio Merino 636
Santa Cruz
Miraflores, Peru


mama mia
11.04.2007, 10:17
...na ja - auch wenn's kein GoldArtikel ist - hängt ja auch am $ :rolleyes
New Rules for Global Investing in 2007

By Gary Dorsch
Editor Global Money Trends magazine
Apr 11, 2007

Jesse Livermore, widely regarded as one of the greatest stock market operators of all-time, considered himself a humble student of the market until his last day in 1940. "I study the market, because it's my business to trade. In the forty years which I have devoted to making speculation a successful business venture, I am still discovering new rules to apply to that business," he once remarked.

"Experience has taught me the way a market behaves is an excellent guide for an operator to follow. Observation gives you the best tips of all, and the behavior of a certain market is all you need at times. You observe, and then experience shows you how to profit by variations from the usual, that is to say, from the probable."

Had Livermore been operating in today's markets, he might have found it intriguing that the direction of the Japanese yen would become a key driver of the Dow Jones Industrials. Traditional indicators such as the health of the US economy, company earnings, cash flow, and future sales forecasts are all taking a backseat to forecasting the direction of the heavily manipulated Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market, in order to predict the Dow Jones Industrials.

The infamous "yen carry" trade, which involves borrowing in Japanese yen at less than 1% to invest in riskier assets like commodities and stocks, has mushroomed to an estimated $500 billion to $800 billion in size. It's made the Bank of Japan, the world's top central banker, and the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are key collaborators with Tokyo in guiding the dollar /yen and the Dow Jones Industrials.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sirchartsalot/dorsch041107/1.gif Someday, the Dow Industrials' obsession with the dollar /yen exchange rate will fade into oblivion. But for now, it's the endless flow of cheap capital from Tokyo that is pumping up the DJI Index to record highs, at a time when the US economy is slowing towards zero percent growth, and S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to slow to +6 to 8% YoY in Q'1, after 4-_ years of straight double-digit profit gains.

The DJI's 416-point plunge on February 27th, the seventh largest daily point loss in history, ignited by a sudden plunge in the US dollar from 120.75-yen to 118-yen, is just a fading memory. Five weeks later, the DJI is once again riding high, recouping most of its panic stricken losses from the Feb 27th to March 13th shakeout, the shortest and shallowest correction from a record high in history.

Instead, it's the US dollar's recovery from a low of 115.25-yen on March 5th to 119.25-yen on April 10th that has revived bullish sentiment on Wall Street. Higher stock prices at a time of slowing earnings growth can raise S&P 500 P/E ratios to dangerously high levels. But it's the Bank of Japan's 0.50% overnight loan rate and the Fed's purchases of long-dated bonds in the Treasury market, that are the primary obsession of US and global stock market operators these days.

US Labor Apparatchniks Prop-Up the US Dollar

The "yen carry" trade appears to be a "risk-free" trade, with both the Japanese ministry of finance and the US Treasury working for a stronger dollar against the yen. However, the "yen carry" trade did blow-up on February 27th, from unexpected meltdowns in shares of US sub-prime lenders. Top US mortgage lender Countrywide Financial (CFC.N) extended its recent losses to $32.50 /share on April 2nd, after top sub-prime lender New Century Financial filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The demise of New Century came less than two months after it had first disclosed problems with delinquent and defaulted loans. It stopped making loans last month, after having made nearly $60 billion in 2006. "Sub-prime woes are not a small issue," said the 81-year-old former Fed kingpin "Easy" Al Greenspan on March 16th. "Much of the strength in consumer spending over the past five years could be traced to capital gains, both realized and unrealized, on surging housing prices."

"If home prices keep falling, there could be more of an impact on the broader US economy's momentum," Greenspan warned. But the US Plunge Protection Team has been working overtime with Japan's ministry of finance, to repair the damage to the global stock markets, by downplaying the risks to the US economy from the sub-prime loan meltdown, and pursuing policies to keep the yen weak.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sirchartsalot/dorsch041107/2.gif After "closely tracking" the slide CFC.N in February and March, the dollar /yen exchange rate began to diverge from CFC.N in April, as currency traders bet on a rosy US employment report on April 6th. "Observation, experience, and memory, are what a successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe accurately, but remember at all times, what he has observed," said Livermore.

"He cannot bet on the unreasonable or the unexpected. He must always bet on probabilities and try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens, as well as when the expected comes to pass," said Livermore.

To read the rest of this article, please click on the hyperlink below

http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=57 (http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=57)

Gary Dorsch

mama mia
11.04.2007, 21:46
Gold posts small gains, as dollar recovers

By Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Ba5b0a8de-338c-4741-8981-32e50f0c2659%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:44 PM ET Apr 11, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed marginally higher Wednesday, as the dollar recouped some of its prior-session losses and crude-oil futures traded flat on conflicting supply data.
Gold for June delivery ended up 20 cents at $681.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Bullion closed Wednesday's session on a markedly less enthusiastic note," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"The gold rally shows some signs of fatigue and now has to contend with a rebounding US dollar and a renewed anti-inflation stance from the IMF as well as the Fed."
James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said that technical indicators and market fundamentals are suggesting further gains for gold.
'Although the rally shows signs of fatigue and has to contend with a rebounding US dollar, traders are keeping enough momentum going to please the bulls.'
— Jon Nadler, Kitco.com
Other metals prices were mixed. May silver fell 4 cents to $13.89 an ounce. July platinum closed up $7.70 at $1,281.30 an ounce, June palladium rose $6.10 at $369.55 an ounce and May copper ended up 5.65 cents at $3.5825 a pound.
On Tuesday, gold futures rose $4.60, or 0.7%, at $681.50 an ounce, boosted by trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a slide in the U.S. dollar.
"[There are] some reports of profit-taking ahead of the G-7 meeting later this week, but traders still see a bullish trend as lingering geo-political tensions and inflation pressures are likely to attract bargain hunters and support gold prices," said analysts at Action Economics.
The dollar edged up against the euro and yen Wednesday, stabilizing after a sharp decline in the previous session. Traders focused on the minutes from the March 20-21 meeting released Wednesday after the gold market had closed. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-steadies-before-fed-minutes/story.aspx?guid=%7B527CE84C%2D43A5%2D4ED7%2D98B4%2D5C73E587A0A4%7D)
U.S. Federal Reserve members were very uncertain about the economic outlook and changed their policy statement to gain more flexibility to respond to the incoming data, the minutes said.
"The FOMC agreed that further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation, but in light of increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the FOMC also agreed that the statement should no longer cite only the possibility of further firming," the FOMC minutes said.
"Instead the statement should indicate that future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information," the minutes said. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/march-meeting-minutes-show-fomc/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB5DB4B8%2D6734%2D4363%2DB049%2DD94BB431F50F%7D)
Elsewhere on the commodity markets, reformulated gasoline futures rallied Wednesday to an eight-month high, as a greater-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks helped support the belief that demand will remain strong through the summer driving season. Crude oil for May delivery was up 14 cents at $62.03 a barrel on NYMEX, but had been up as much as 67 cents at its intraday high of $62.56. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gasoline-rallies-supply-data-crude/story.aspx?guid=%7B3A3DC105%2DA59E%2D4F5A%2DB6BB%2DD9B1C2837126%7D)
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks rose 153,192 troy ounces to stand at 7.45 million troy ounces as of late Tuesday, according to New York Mercantile Exchange data. Silver supplies rose 1,023 troy ounces to stand at 126.4 million troy ounces, while copper supplies were unchanged at 36,355 short tons.

mama mia
11.04.2007, 22:25
(http://ad.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=v8/3531/3/0/%2a/f%3B73288960%3B4-0%3B1%3B13781905%3B31-1/1%3B19914051/19931945/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttps://secure.reuters.com/Login/NewsMails.aspx?src=int_mktg_ban_topnews225_12012006)US palladium hits 10-mo. high, gold ends a tad up

Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:28pm ET

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Commission-house and technical buying sent U.S. palladium futures to a ten-month high on Wednesday, while gold contracts finished a touch higher after breaking above trading ranges a day earlier.

Most-active palladium futures for June delivery <PAM7> on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up $6.10 at $369.55 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD=> fetched $363.00/68.00.

Palladium futures hit a session-high of $372.00 which marked the loftiest level since June 6.

Ralph D'Esposito of RJ Futures cited a technical breakout on the charts, along with commission house short covering, the buying back of futures or options previously sold to close out short positions.

"We are hitting commission-house (buy) stops and speculative buying in palladium," D'Esposito said, adding he also saw some good trade and commercial selling at the same time.

The June palladium contract has risen more than 10 percent after setting a low of $336.20 on March 5.

After the end of Wednesday's pit trade, the Federal Reserve said that "further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation," according to minutes of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee's March 20-21 meeting.

"But in the light of increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the Committee also agreed that the statement should no longer cite only the possibility of further firming," the Fed said. [ID:nN11239424]

mama mia
12.04.2007, 09:15
Toronto broker GMP forecasts $14.25 average silver price with spikes to $20/oz

Toronto’s Griffin McBurney Securities has initiated coverage of four primary North American Silver producers, forecasting that “silver will reach new highs this year.”

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Apr 2007

As Griffiths McBurney Securities (GMP) recently launched coverage of primary North American silver producers, the Toronto-based broker's analysts forecast an average silver price of $14.25/oz this year with potential short-term spikes in the metal price to $20/oz.

Claiming that "silver will reach new highs this year," metals analysts Craig West and Stefan Axell suggested that silver's early March correction "provides a good buying opportunity for certain silver equities."

"Given the average silver price to date, our forecast implies an average silver price of $14.25 per ounce for the remainder of 2007," the analysts forecast. "We also note that the physical silver market continues to tighten, in part due to growth in the silver ETF. With this in mind, we expect the silver price could experience peak prices well above our average price forecast, possibly up to $20 per ounce."

"In 2008 and 2009, we expect the silver price average will level off and begin to fall as new production from mines comes online," they added.

Observing that only 30% of new silver comes from primary silver mines, GMP forecasts "continued growth in mine supply at an increasing rate from 3.7% in 2006 to 4.8% per year in 2010, as new mines currently under construction are brought on line."

West and Axell said they view the silver ETF "as a barometer for investment demand for silver, and also note the impact that it has on the physical market for silver. They asserted that "investment demand will continue to be the main driver of silver prices in the coming year, and we believe growth in the silver ETF, which is up nearly 30 million ounces since the start of 2007, is an indication of this continuing investment demand."

Meanwhile, the analysts noted that "as we expect investment demand for silver will continue to grow this year, we expect the current strong relationship between silver and gold to be maintained."

The analysts also predicted a 6% growth rate in industrial applications of silver this year.


Initiating coverage of Silver Wheaton (NYSE, TSX: SLW), GNP gave the Vancouver-based miner a "BUY" recommendation and a US$12 per share target price. The analysts noted that "Silver Wheaton's share price has underperformed its peers since the start of the year, and we view the stock as undervalued."

Observing that Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI, TSX: SSO) "has the largest resource of any publicly traded primary silver company, with total resources of over 1.2 billion ounces of silver, GMP rated the Vancouver explorationist "BUY" with a price target of US$42/share.

"Although we would typically expect a company entering a development phase to underperform its peers, we believe Silver Standard is an exception to the rule," said the analysts, who also noted that "Silver Standard is well financed."

GMP gave Vancouver-based silver miner Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS, TSX: PAA) a "HOLD" recommendation and a US$32 per share target price. While Bolivian politics has made GMP cautious with its forecasts for Pan American Silver, the analysts said they expected the start-up of new operations in Mexico and in 2009 in Argentina "will not only provide growth but also improve the diversification of Pan American's portfolio of assets."

Idaho-based silver miner Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE, TSX: CDM) also garnered a "HOLD" recommendation from the analysts, who set a target of US$4.25/sh. The analysts expressed concerns about the litigation, which is delaying the start-up of the Kensington project in Alaska, and assigned a higher rate of risk to the San Bartolome project in Bolivia. "While we agree with the company that a government nationalization of Bartolome is unlikely, we believe the outcome of government plans to increase taxes in the mining industry is uncertain."


mama mia
12.04.2007, 16:26
HUI – Preparing for Launch Soon - Part IV

By Eric Hommelberg (javascript:biowindow('bio.html','BIO','top=50,left=200,width=575,height=300')) http://www.kitco.com/images/mailicon.gif (ehommelberg@golddrivers.com) http://www.kitco.com/images/printicon.gif (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommelberg/printerfriendly/apr112007p.html)
April 11, 2007

www.golddrivers.com (http://www.golddrivers.com/)
Note: When I wrote the first piece of my ‘HUI – Preparing for launch soon’ series I didn’t had in mind to write three updates on it afterwards. The reason of doing so is simply because it generated plenty of feedback from readers who encouraged me to write some updates on it. The funny thing is that the HUI has been marching higher ever since I wrote part I (HUI was trading at 318 vs 358 now) but sentiment of most gold investors was pointing exactly the other way during this period. As pointed out in previous pieces the gold shares are most likely to take off when sentiment is at an extreme low. Well, that’s exactly what happened lately, despite the bearish sentiment towards the gold shares the HUI is creeping higher and has come in reach of the important 360 mark for the 4th time since September 2006. If the HUI could manage to breach this important mark it could be challenging its all time high of 400+ rather sooner than later. Since current situation is so critical I decided to write part IV of ‘HUI – Preparing for Launch soon’.. END.

HUI – Preparing for Launch soon – part IV

Gold continues its roller coaster ride which caused many (short term) gold traders clueless as of why gold is going into one direction or the other. Gold sharply down on the news of 15 British soldiers seized by Iran, gold going up sharply after the release of those 15 British soldiers. As stated many times before, the more bullish news for gold the more it’s being sold off. A good example of what I mean we saw on March 29 when gold sold off $8 in the face of increasing Iran-UK tensions (Iran reneged on its promise to let the captured British woman soldier free thus firing up tensions). While crude oil responded by moving up sharply gold went into the opposite direction. The reason why is obvious, as explained in detail in ‘HUI – preparing for launch soon – part I, I and III) establishment doesn’t want gold to regain its role of safe haven since that would undermine the dollar’s credibility to a great degree.

Now if that would be the case indeed you would expect the central banks stepping into the market during geopolitical tension increase (Iran) and sell gold in increasing quantities to kill the rise of gold thereby torpedoing gold’s function as a barometer of geopolitical/financial stress.

Well, it seems that that was exactly what has happened, Neal Ryan of Blanchard & Co wrote his clients April on 04:

We've gotten our update on ECB bank sales the past week, and just as we figured, we've seen another week of massive increases in bank reserve gold selling into the market. This past week's additions are roughly 17.5 tonnes of gold into the market. That means that in the last three weeks, 45.5 tonnes of gold have flooded out of ECB banks into the gold market. For a point of reference, the previous three weeks, sales had totalled roughly 7 tonnes total. Considering the past price action in periods when selling has increased this dramatically, the gold price has held up considerably well and even made advances in the face of this massive selling pressure. END.

Now please digest this carefully:

A massive increase in gold sales didn’t succeed in putting the yellow metal down. In contrary, gold managed to appreciate even further. Now please don’t think a massive gold sale to the tune of 45 tonnes in three weeks time is peanuts since previous similar gold sales of such order resulted in severe price collapses.

Ryan Neal continues:

The last two examples of similar selling pressure into the market had collapsed prices; Sept. '06 when +50 tonnes were sold into the market, prices fell nearly $30; May '06 75 tonnes were sold into the market and prices fell over $100 per ounce.

That gold has absorbed this increased selling and continued higher should highlight two things. First, the physical demand in the marketplace at present is quite robust to be able to digest these levels of supply and trend higher. Second, this can now be confirmed as the reason the gold market has not been reflecting the current market conditions that should be pushing prices higher. END.

OK fine you’ll say, so central banks are stepping up to the plate and are willing to sell into any gold rally in order to kill any rise in gold, but that’s exactly what I fear, central banks fighting any serious gold advance tooth and nail. Aren’t the central banks so powerful they can do with gold whatever they want whenever they want?

Well, although I can understand this kind of fear, the opposite is true. Central banks can only do so much but they can’t stop or reverse a primary trend. The simple truth is that central banks are running out of physical gold to hit the market with enough physical gold in order to kill gold’s primary trend.

According to Neal Ryan there’s only one remaining seller left out in the market of any size who was more than likely behind the major sales over that three week period. This particular seller only has some 3 – 7 million ounces to sell for the remainder of the year.

Yes, the Washington agreement (CBGA II) allows central banks to sell gold to the tune of 500 tonnes a year but Neal Ryan expects the central banks will miss this mark by over 150 tonnes this year and if that wasn’t already bad enough he expects the central bank gold sales will miss the mark by 200 – 300 tonnes in 2008 – 2009. This translates itself into a dramatic supply drop of 6 – 10% coming years. Now please don’t think the gold producers will come to the rescue here since they are facing a decline in gold production coming years which will exaggerate the total supply drop even more. You simply don’t have to be a genius in order to see that in the face of an ever increase in demand for gold against a severe drop in gold supply the only way is up for gold.

The bottom line is, don’t let yourself being fooled by short term counter-active price movements and subsequent bearish gold comments. The big picture hasn’t changed a bit, the fundamentals which took gold from its 2001 low of $250 to its current level of $675 are all still firm in place and are pointing towards much higher gold prices the years ahead.

OK, so higher gold prices the years ahead, but what about the gold shares then? Many analysts are calling for a top in gold shares since they can’t confirm gold’s recent strength and besides that gold shares could be victim of a brutal sell-off in the stock market they say.

Well, since charts are telling more than a 1000 words, let’s take a peek at some updated gold and hui and charts..In other words, please forget about all bearish comments lately and just focus on the hard data and nothing else.

The first chart concerns the gold chart. The reason for showing this one is simple. Just take a look at this chart which is completely free from any bearish comment and show you painfully clear that gold’s uptrend is extremely healthy.. Please commit this to memory.


You see? Despite the brutal sell-offs every now and then gold’s primary trend remains up, not down. As an investor you should be prepared emotionally to deal with such sell-offs otherwise you will find yourself most probably ending up selling at the worst possible times.

The second chart concerns the Gold vs HUI chart. I just show this chart to visualize the strong correlation between gold and its shares. This chart leaves no doubt.. There is a strong correlation between gold and its shares indeed no matter what some analysts want you to believe…


OK you’ll say, a strong correlation between gold and its shares indeed but what about a potential stock market crash? Does it take down the gold shares with it? Does it worry me? Well, although no one can predict exactly what will happen during a stock market melt down I’m not too worried about it since gold will shine in such an environment and eventually the gold stocks will prosper. Please remember that during the great depression of the thirties Homestake Mining appreciated by more than 500%.

Now if the HUI is really tracking the price of gold then it has some catching up to do since it is trading at the same level as when gold hit $635 in September 2006.

In September 2006 the HUI clocked the 360 for the first time after its correction in may 2006. It has done so on another two occasions ever since then (December 2006 and February 2007) and now the HUI is approaching the 360 for the 4th time. If the HUI can breach this resistance at 360 it is off to challenge its all time high of 400+ reached in May 2006. The chart below visualizes the HUI lagging the price of gold.


So the 360 seems to be somewhat of a heavy resistance here so the question remains whether or not we will see a successful HUI attempt to breach this 360 mark soon.

Well, it seems that we’re not that far away from such an event. As said above the HUI seems somewhat undervalued compared to gold these days but having said that it seems that the HUI’s undervaluation is disappearing fast so if gold can hold its current strength the HUI will breach its 360 resistance rather sooner than later..

How do we know if the HUI’s undervaluation is disappearing or not?

The HUI’s undervaluation/overvaluation against gold is visualized by the Gold/HUI ratio chart..The HUI always moves from undervaluation towards overvaluation against gold. Since the HUI has been in undervaluation territories for quite some time now the odds are that it’s only a matter of time the HUI will be overvalued again against gold. The chart below tells it all:


The Gold/HUI ratio chart says the Gold/HUI ratio is dropping lately which translates itself into a move from under-valuation towards over-valuation. Gold/HUI values exceeding the 2.0 mark are pointing towards undervaluation of the gold shares vs gold thereby generating excellent ‘BUY’ opportunities while on the other hand Gold/HUI ratios falling below the 1.7 mark are pointing towards over-valuation of the gold shares vs gold. It seems that the Gold/HUI ratio is dropping indeed. A continued drop simply points towards higher HUI values.

Now how can you profit from such a potential up-leg in the gold shares? Well, sure enough you can track the HUI by simply buying a major producer such as Newmont but the biggest profits are being made by juniors making discoveries. Please be aware that mine supply is on the wane and major producers such as Newmont simply have to turn to the juniors in order to replace their dwindling gold reserves. History makes no mistake about it, juniors making discoveries are paying off tremendously. Arequipa Resources shot up from 1 CAD$ in 1996 after to $35 after discovery of 7 million ounces gold, more recently Aurelian Resources (still in discovery) shot up from 92 cents towards $40 (nw trading at $32). Sounds simple right? Just buy the right junior and get rich instantly. Well, unfortunately it doesn’t work that way since it’s not easy to find a junior on the verge (or just in) of an economic discovery. Remember that only one out of every 1000 projects will make it eventually to a mine, some estimates are even more conservative and are pointing towards one out of every 2000 projects that will make it to a mine..

Although as stated above picking the right juniors is not an easy task but nevertheless we feel quite confident about some high quality junior companies which we believe could turn out to be extremely profitable the years ahead. We will introduce these companies to our members soon as they will be added to our favourite Discovery TOP 10.

If you want to participate in the new up-leg in gold shares and profit from the potential of promising juniors you can sign up HERE (http://www.golddrivers.com/golddiscoveryletter/golddiscoverypremium.htm) for as little as $30 a month (one month free trial)

Best Regards,

Eric Hommelberg

The Gold Discovery Letter/
The Gold Drivers Report
www.golddrivers.com (http://www.golddrivers.com/)


mama mia
12.04.2007, 16:28
Gold, HUI, XAU & GDX Close at 20-day Highs - Considerably Higher is Possible

Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Apr 12, 2007

Both Gold and the various related mining indices (HUI, XAU & GDX) have closed at new 20-day highs. This satisfies the requirements for the conclusion of the corrective phase that began following the February 26th high. While the original break did satisfy an optimum oversold CCI(8) reading of -152 as of March 5th it was earlier than anticipated. In previous examples it generally took twelve trading days or more before the selling was complete.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye041207/1.gif The two instances that correlate well with the current 1.07 year cycle are 1993 and 2002. In those years there was a minor break, but not enough to create an oversold reading. Once the price broke out to a 20-day closing high it continued higher (up of 18% & 20% in the subsequent months). Based upon current market action a comparable move would project to $810 +/- $10 within the next four months.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye041207/2.gif Independently, our analysis of the symmetrical triangle breakout (measuring width, height and commonalities with thirty years of prior triangles) points to an interim high in the mid July to August time frame above last year's top at $735. Any minor corrections to the 50-ay moving average in the next few weeks should be considered buying opportunities in the related mining stocks.

Hostage Release: The other point to be made is the exceptional performance during the negotiation stage and release of the hostages. Prices should have broken by $10 to $15 (in line with the decline in crude). However, commercials used the opportunity to reduce their net short position by 9K.

-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com (http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/)


mama mia
12.04.2007, 21:32
Gold falls despite weakness in the dollar

By Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B495d47b5-1039-4a95-b106-1424a0f905fe%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:17 PM ET Apr 12, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell in volatile trading Thursday, as traders locked in gains, shrugging off weakness in the dollar and strength in crude-oil prices.
Gold for June delivery closed down $2 at $679.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Today's gold trading session was agonizingly lackluster as the metal tried to get its bearings, but was unsuccessful at either rising convincingly through the $682 price, or at falling under $670 per ounce," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Bullion has been repeatedly running into strong headwinds of resistance near the $682 area, despite continuing perceptions that the US dollar is on a basically one-way street lower," Nadler said.
The euro rallied to a more than two-year high against the dollar Thursday, after the head of the European Central Bank signaled that interest rates in the euro zone will rise in the coming months. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/european-central-bank-leaves-key/story.aspx?guid=%7BB02EE2F1%2D381D%2D49DF%2DA9B9%2D0007FE6EAE52%7D)
The dollar fell across the board on concerns over uncertainties in U.S. economic growth, as traders positioned themselves ahead of the upcoming meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in Washington over the weekend. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/euro-rises-more-two-year-high/story.aspx?guid=%7BDB0E0F08%2D4D5C%2D42B7%2D9E6C%2D7ADF36E098CC%7D)
"Gold has shown signs of weakness today despite factors such as a weaker dollar and firmer oil, which would normally be supportive," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"Whether gold needs to consolidate or even correct before higher levels can be reached remains to be seen," Moore said. "However, given the movement of oil and the dollar, and the recent increase in both physical and investment interest, we expect dips to be limited."
Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, said: "Bullion has been running into headwinds near the $682 area, despite continuing perceptions (and trading reality) that the U.S. dollar is on a basically one-way slide."
On Wednesday, gold ended up 20 cents at $681.70 an ounce, as technical and psychological resistance capped gains.
"While the bullish trend remains intact, some traders feel that there may be a period of consolidation before gold prices manage to break resistance at $682 and the psychologically important $700 mark," according to Action Economics.
Elsewhere in the commodity markets, crude-oil futures rose Thursday, drawing support from a greater-than-expected decline in gasoline supplies reported by the Energy Department on Wednesday. A Thursday report from the International Energy Agency on the decline in global oil output also underpinned prices. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-oil-rises-above-62/story.aspx?guid=%7B7BB59ABE%2DA41C%2D41C7%2D8F83%2DC1D3D72D5975%7D)
Other metals prices were mostly lower. May silver fell 3.5 cents to $13.855 an ounce, July platinum closed down $1.80 to $1,275.50 an ounce and May copper fell 8.05 cents to $3.5020 a pound. June palladium bucked the trend, rising $4.75 to $374.30 an ounce.
Indexes and inventories
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 7.45 million troy ounces as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell 643,030 troy ounces to stand at 125.79 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell 44 short tons to 36,311 short tons.

mama mia
13.04.2007, 08:29
...so why not gold

Richard Russell 'snippet'
Dow Theory Letters
Apr 12, 2007
Extracted from the Apr 11, 2007 edition of Richard's Remarks

Gold -- A number of subscribers want to know why I would buy GLD (gold) here. The reason I would buy gold here is because the P&F chart looks favorable. Of course, any chart can change, but this chart looks good. In fact, the chart has the look of a massive base of accumulation.

Only three things can happen to GLD as far as the P&F chart is concerned.
GLD can extend sideways, which would probably represent more accumulation.

It can break out to the upside, which would entail GLD rising to the 69 box.

Or it can break down, which would require GLD to decline to the 62 box.

GLD is trading this morning at 67.02, which, for our purposes, means that GLD is at the 67 box. My take (guess) is that this is such an overall impressive formation that I believe the resolution to this pattern will be GLD rallying to 69. If this occurs, it would be a very impressive move, in which case I'd guess the GLD would continue higher and in due time better its recent high at 72.

The last P&F signal for GLD was a bullish signal at the 65 box -- give us an upside P&F "count" to 85. That would correspond to 850 on gold -- but why not, platinum hit an all-time high today, nickel is at the high as is aluminum All the base metals are strong -- so why not gold.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell041207.gif lots more follows for subscribers...

Apr 12, 2007
Richard Russell
website: Dow Theory Letters (http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf)
email: Dow Theory Letters (staff2@dowtheoryletters.com)
Russell Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Richard+Russell)
© Copyright 1958-2007 Dow Theory Letters, Inc.


mama mia
13.04.2007, 18:02
Hi Ho Euro

Jim Willie CB
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)"
Apr 13, 2007

Use this link (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html) to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.

Hardly a dull moment in the currency market these days. Much attention centers upon central bank actions. The Bank of Japan held steady, as world speculators thank heavens. The Euro Central Bank held steady, as the US bankers thank heavens. But the ECB aint done hiking. The Bank of England held steady, just like the ECB, but earlier. The Reserve Bank of Australia held steady, from Down Undah. The Bank of Canada held steady, but now markets think they could hike soon. We live in a bond driven world, totally divorced from economic fundamentals, trade deficits, mismanaged economies, and bankrupt policies. Some brief points are provided on currency matters, each detailed more fully in the April Hat Trick Letter due out over next weekend, the US income tax deadline. They all are pertinent to gold. From the other side of the chasm is the housing & mortgage crisis, another impetus for gold. Let it be known we have a 3-SIGMA event on our hands, a credit derivative early stage in the meltdown.

With the rising euro currency will come massive shock waves to the FOREX markets and to precious metals. The euro is the lever placed at the fulcrum of the gold and silver prices. As the euro breaks out, the $700 mark for gold and the $15 mark for silver will be surpassed. The breakout will cause problems for the European economy, as competing currency wars ratchet up dangerously.

A good forward indicator for the Japanese yen currency, and its associated Yen Carry Trade unwind, is the Nikkei stock index of major Japanese stocks. A highly bullish triangle has shown itself, undeterred by the recent late winter shock. The Bank of Japan cannot deliver a series of shocks. The BOJ and other central bankers must weigh the risks of continued easy money in Japan where domestic risks are mounting, versus the pain of more shock waves to the global financial market. Let it be known the Nikkei index is saying "yen will remain weak" in clear fashion. Stocks are forward signals. This is a big flashing green light for continued Yen Carry Trade, a crucial ingredient to global market speculation, of which gold is part (hard to admit).

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie041307/1.gif Central banks clearly hold the levers in the global financial game, which increasingly resembles the Competing Currency Game described and warned by Von Mises. The wild card in the equation stands as trade war between the United States and China, my longstanding call. The USDollar stands as vulnerable as the USGovt busily, fruitlessly, and mindlessly files complaints against China to the World Trade Organization. Sure, China violates free trade, but WTO complaints don't fix anything. Movie and software DVD's were publicly smashed and destroyed in Beijing last week, only to go back on sale in back alleys the very next day. Trade war is mutually destructive, and that is the path we are on. Next up is politicians running for Congress in the Untied States on a platform of trade sanctions against China. The trade conflict will again be on the G8 Meeting agenda, when finance ministers meet in Washington on April 13-th.

The grand weapons to be wielded by China is their $1200 billion reserves account, including the $300 billion direct investment account. They are dead set on investing in commodity stockpiles like oil and metal ores, as well as acquiring strategically important foreign companies who own mineral and resource properties. Their buying spree will keep a strong bid under commodities, and sustain its mighty bull. Calls by Wall Street of a dead commodity bull are like harlots urging for virtue.

The Euro Central Bank affects the all important euro currency exchange rate versus the US$. The official ECB interest rate is 3.75%, but is certain to rise. Consensus is loud and firm, that more rate hikes lie ahead. The bond yield differential will continue to drive the euro up. See the excellent chart provided with permission (http://www.global-view.com (http://www.global-view.com/)) which shows the yield spreads between the 2-year and 10-year Govt bond yields, from USTreasurys and EuroBonds.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie041307/2.gif The euro peak of 136.6 at the end of December 2004 will be shattered, and soon, likely to whiz past 140 before the autumn trees change leaf colors. The European interest rate futures contract places the June2007 ECB rate at 4.14%, the Sept2007 rate at 4.25%, and the Dec2007 rate at 4.30%, signaling at least two more 25 basis point hikes. With each ECB rate hike will come a lift in the euro currency. New highs are a certainty, and with those highs will come an assault on the $700 gold price. The euro will easily surpass the 136.6 highs from 16 months ago, and in fact soar past the 140 easily. Also, a rise in the British sterling currency will not require higher interest rates in England, but rather the growing certainty of lower US official rates. Tremendous problems are sure to come next from the euro breakout, principally from European manufacturers. Their powerful car makers will also do what they did early in this calendar year, push for pressure on the Bank of Japan to lift interest rates and end their trade subsidies hidden to currency suppression. Expect pressure on the BOJ to mount by early summer into another crescendo.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie041307/3.gif EURO/YEN CROSS CONTINUES UP
The triangle of currencys consists of the US$, the Euro, and Yen. The euro is rising against both its competitors. Sure, the yen is down, sporting an 83 handle, exactly as forecasted here following their March Repatriation. The yen has lost almost all of its mojo in the last few weeks, no longer even in the news much. The anticipated move to the sidelines by the Bank of Japan on the official interest rate was also expected. They did not act in the past week.

Without a doubt, heavy pressure came from the United States, where Wall Street bankers are probably the largest yen carry trade participants. The yen is best seen in the euro/yen cross. That all important cross has broken out to even higher highs, even after a March jolt of major proportions. The trendline in the cross offered solid support, more than expected by me, further assisted by the 20-week moving average. The cross might seem obscure to North Americans, but to Europe and Japan the cross is a direct translation of currencys. Trading and speculation bear direct relevance. Japan still has a near 0% yield, and European yields are almost certainly to rise. Case closed.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie041307/4.gif THIRD WORLD FINANCES
A remarkable embarrassment is revealed by a close look at national reserves. The low puny US $41 billion in reserves leaves the US vulnerable to a currency attack, but then again, the alchemists at the USGovt and Dept of Treasury can easily print ample amounts of money secretly, from which to support the USDollar. If the US reacts to a run on the USDollar by printing money in its support, then merciless FOREX traders will jump on the USDollar and attack it in round after round, just on the dilution basis. The USGovt saw fit recently to slap a tariff on Chinese coated paper. Next targets are textiles, electronics, and toys. Other trade friction has cropped up against Japan, accused by US Congressional members as illegally subsidizing trade with a suppressed currency. So the USGovt is picking fights with their greatest USTBond supporters. They should be thankful their lands have not been occupied by US Military forces. Sorry, could not resist. USGovt leaders are horrendously misguided in believing that yuan currency appreciation will fix anything. These issues are analyzed in the report, and the actual major unresolvable problem is cited, labor cost.

The embarrassment comes from comparisons. China has $1200 billion with latest updates. Japan has $884 billion. Lowly Third World nations have more than the United States! See Malaysia at $82B, Poland at $49B, Indonesia at $46B, and Nigeria at $42B. Such numbers reinforce the notion that the US has Third World characteristics.

The US and Europe cannot have it both ways, requiring a low Japanese interest rate for bond speculation, and objecting about trade subsidy. The USGovt has lost control of the USDollar, at a time when trade war is escalating, trade deficits continue unabated, the US grows increasingly isolated, and a costly unpopular war festers.

Trade friction has arrived, on a grand scale. Heck, it has been a problem all along, even during the years when moronic justification was calling it a "low cost solution" for cheaper consumer products to hungry American consumers. Can anyone remember that moronic economic mythology premise relied upon as a pillar of globalization and trade just a few short years ago? It was mocked by me, and now has curiously vanished as a claimed pillar. Short memory, scapegoating, atrocious economic stewardship.

The intermediate correction in the Canadian Dollar appears to be behind us. The factors behind it are technical, economic, and commodity related, in my view, discusses in more detail in the report. The immediate cause which many seem to point to is the growing likelihood of another rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Currently at 4.25%, the official interest rate is still 100 basis points below the benchmark USFed rate. What is called the banker acceptance futures contract, which reflects likelihood of official rate, has lifted from 4.05% on March 5-th to 4.37% suddenly by April 10-th. Thus a 50% chance is perceived for a rate hike next. The differential can improve with a cut in US rates, or even such an expectation. My view is that two other factors are strongly affecting the loonie, details provided. Next resistance is in the 88 to 89 cent range.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie041307/5.gif THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

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Apr 12, 2007
Jim Willie CB

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/hats.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
Willie Archives
(http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jim+Willie+CB)website: Golden Jackass (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html)


mama mia
13.04.2007, 20:06
Gold hits fresh 6-week peak 13/04/2007 19:02

Brent oil soars, nears $70 (http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/markets/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=markets&ArticleID=1518-21_2098332)
Gold rises as dollar falls (http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/markets/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=markets&ArticleID=1518-21_2098162)
http://www.fin24.co.za/images_mmx/navigation/spacer.gif http://www.fin24.co.za/images_mmx/navigation/spacer.gif London - Gold rose to a fresh six-week high on Friday, boosted by a drop in the dollar and firm oil prices, analysts said. Spot gold traded up to $683.50/oz, beating Tuesday's peak of $681.30, before slipping to a quote of $679.10/679.50 at 1509 GMT, versus $675.80/$676.30 late in New York on Thursday.

"Gold has edged higher, supported by the softening dollar and strengthening oil prices," Barclays Capital said.

Gold's slip in later trading followed a dollar rally against the euro and yen after a Group of Seven meeting.

Gold's failure to hold at key levels may trigger profit-taking, other analysts said.

"There is a risk that if we continue to fail through roughly $680, then there is a risk of disillusion and some liquidation," said Stephen Briggs, economist at SG Corporate and Investment Bank.

A weaker dollar gives buyers more purchasing power in dollar-denominated gold, which is also often seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation.

Oil topped $64/barrel, extending a 3% gain a day earlier, as traders pondered a series of refinery outages in the United States that drained gasoline stocks as the typically heavy summer driving period approached.

Despite gold's range-bound trading pattern, analysts said the metal would set new highs further forward.

"We continue to believe that a weakening dollar will lend further support to gold prices given the historical inverse relationship between the two assets," Goldman Sachs said.

"We therefore continue to expect gold prices to rise to $750 by year end," it said in a report.

Deutsche Bank saw gold prices rising to $740 in the long run.

In other metals, palladium traded just below an 11-month high of $372/oz hit on Thursday. Spot was quoted at $371/376, against $367.50/$372.50 in the US market.

"It's purely speculative and I don't think the fundamentals justify the move," Briggs said, adding palladium attracted good buying on a market perception that it had gained less than other metals in recent weeks.

Platinum was up $5 at $1 270/$1 275 an ounce, while silver was at $13.99/14.02 an ounce, versus $13.84/13.89.

mama mia
14.04.2007, 22:54
Free Commentary

Number to Watch
In Gold: 693.20

published April 16

A trading alert in Rick’s Picks (https://secure.cyrusfirst.com/rickspicks/subscribe.php) on Thursday morning caught the start of a $15 rally in Comex Gold to the exact tick, but it’s what happens next that will tell us whether this is the thrust that finally vaporizes the $700 barrier. By my runes, the real barrier lies at 693.20, a Hidden Pivot that we’ve been using as a minimum rally target since early April. Gold has been moving rather precisely to our intraday numbers lately, and that is why we should look to this one to tell us what’s likely to occur next.

mama mia
15.04.2007, 22:04
Base Metals Technicals 3
So far this year a sense of uneasiness has gripped the financial markets. Volatility has finally peeked its head and the market players are on the edge of their seats trying to anticipate the next exciting move. While economists scrutinize every piece of data that comprises their crystal balls, the stock markets are teetering on what could be the pinnacle of their grand cyclical bull market. While the general stock markets linger in a wait-and-see mode, commodities have had a fine start to their new year. The headline commodities of oil and gold have fared nicely so far in 2007 as they continue in their respective secular bull markets.

Many other commodities have also performed well this year as seen by the fact that the Continuous Commodity Index (http://www.zealllc.com/2007/ccicrb.htm) is still within spitting distance of its nominal all-time highs. Among these commodities are the hard-working industrial metals that are so critical to our current massive global economic build-out, the base metals.

Like the precious metals, base metals are finite in nature and are extremely difficult and costly to extract from the earth. With demand for these metals skyrocketing led by the emerging and fast-growing Asian economies, the mining industry has been pinched in supplying the markets' needs.

This structural deficit that has emptied global stockpiles and drastically raised the prices of these metals has caused increasingly volatile futures markets. Though I believe fundamentals have and will continue to drive the base metals, this unique sector has now become a mecca for adrenaline-junkie speculators.

Copper, zinc, nickel, lead and aluminum are the powerhouse base metals that have the most exposure worldwide and are the most active among the major global commodities futures exchanges. This time last year each of these base metals was in the process of achieving all-time highs with several of them in the midst of massive parabolic ascents.

But the 2006 success of the base metals drew a lot of skepticism as to whether these amazing gains were sustainable. A lot of critics came out of the woodwork claiming that the base metals' gains were unsustainable, unwarranted and that a massive crash in all these metals was imminent.

It is in fact true that even within sound fundamental uptrends, technical blow-offs are necessary and do happen in order to balance sentiment. Markets simply cannot perpetually rise. Corrections are actually healthy and quell euphoria quite nicely. But were these critics prophetic in their calls for a base metals crash?

Now it is very important for active traders to be in tune with the technical nature of a fundamental bull market. Technicals paint a picture of the past and can assist in the timing of trades in the future. And cyclical corrections within secular bulls actually provide excellent buying opportunities.

The base metals have been fascinating to watch from a technical perspective. In 2006 there were some wild parabolic surges that are typically only seen toward the ends of bull markets. But since fundamentals point towards the base metals prospering for at least another decade, it was sure going to be interesting to watch the corrections unfold.

And though exciting, these hugely volatile moves make it increasingly difficult to establish a technical trading pattern. The last time we looked at base metals technicals was late spring of 2006. My business partner Adam Hamilton penned the previous essay (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/basetech2.htm) in this series just as many of the base metals were beginning their corrections. Almost a year later I'd like to take a look at how these corrections unfolded and where we stand in each of these major base metals' secular bulls.

I'll kick off this analysis with copper, the metal that most traders dub the king of the base metals. And this is seemingly true as even on CNBC when real-time metals quotes are periodically displayed, the banner always shows gold, silver and copper. Traders often use copper to capture the pulse of the base metals sector.

Copper surpassed its 1988 all-time nominal high in May of 2005, and then proceeded to more than double from there over just the next 12 months to achieve its new all-time high of just over $4.00 per pound. As you can see in this chart, copper has had an amazing run in its bull market. From its low in 2001 to its high last year, copper has risen an incredible 575%.

As all good things must come to an end, copper's very strong multi-year uptrend finally peaked in an unsustainable parabolic surge. In just 60 trading days last spring copper surged 91% in speculative fashion before the inevitable correction ensued. As mentioned, fundamentals are ultimately the core drivers of the base metals prices. But even fundamentally strong uplegs can get ahead of themselves and succumb to speculative excitement.

To compare and contrast the weight speculation can bear on uplegs, we can use the 2003/2004 upleg to make a good case for a primarily fundamentally driven surge. And the aftermath of the quasi-parabolic run that capped this upleg shows why. It was during this period of time that massive copper buying was coming out of China and global copper stockpiles were dropping dramatically. All this activity spawned an impressive end-of-upleg rally that saw copper jump 58% in just 67 trading days.

These types of gains are typically unsustainable, but because the fundamentals were so strong, only a modest 18% correction came off the top before copper's bull continued to charge higher. Over the course of the next couple years leading up to its flashy 2006 parabola, copper trended higher proving that global supply and demand fundamentals were the drivers of its 2003/2004 upleg, not speculative fervor.

With copper growing stronger and more popular by the day over 2004 and 2005, speculative capital, much being funneled through hedge funds, joined the crowd of those bidding on copper and eventually drove it to its interim peak in parabolic fashion. But as we all know parabolas are unsustainable due to the exponential increase of capital required to maintain them, so the ensuing correction is often swift and steep as buyers grow sparse while speculators run for the gates locking in their gains.

Perhaps $4.00 copper will have fundamental and technical support at some point in this bull, though 2006 wasn't the year. Copper was far too overbought for this to happen. But surprisingly the initial panic selling off the top of this parabola wasn't as bad as many people feared. After an initial 24% decline in just 15 trading days, copper began a sideways consolidation that was still pretty high considering the slope of its parabola. This consolidation took the form of a wedge until it broke out of its pattern to the downside several months later.

This breakout to the downside eventually dragged copper below $2.50 and had commodities gurus of all sorts wailing and gnashing their teeth. After a 178-trading-day trip from its apex, copper shed 41% to what appears to be a major interim low from where our current upleg has launched. Interestingly even though the breakout to the downside was perhaps just a continuation of technical pruning, it was fundamental news that freaked-out copper traders.

One of the major catalysts to copper's breakout to the downside in the fourth quarter was the rising LME stockpiles. From mid-October to the end of January copper stockpiles doubled to just over 200,000 metric tons. There has in fact been a strong inverse correlation (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/lmestock.htm) between price and stockpile levels for the base metals, but this particular increase spooked copper speculators and drove its price to its low earlier this year.

As the stockpile level flattened and turned to the downside again, copper began its next powerful upleg that we are in the midst of today. Traders have also started to realize that a 200,000 metric-ton stockpile is still historically low. Considering that in 2002 LME copper stockpiles were at 1 million metric tons, it is apparent that demand is still outpacing supply.

Now after knifing through its 200-day moving average and relative support zone to its February low of $2.40, copper is in the midst of an impressive recovery and renewed upleg that is quickly carrying it back towards its parabola-induced high. In just 43 trading days copper has rocketed 45% to interim highs achieved just this week! The copper bull is not over as many skeptics had been so eager to claim. It will be interesting to see where this upleg takes it.

The next of the exciting base metals is zinc. And this zinc chart looks awfully familiar to copper's chart up until about the fourth quarter of 2006. Like copper, zinc stockpiles have been ravaged over the last few years and are even still at levels that are alarmingly low. Zinc's fundamentals (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/zincbull.htm) are driving quite a technical climb.

What an amazing run zinc has had so far in this commodities bull. From its low of $0.34 in the first half of 2003, zinc has risen an incredible 523% to its recent November peak. The rarely thought-about zinc miners of the world have really cashed in on the recent success of their metal and like the other base metals miners are struggling to keep up with demand.

Like copper, zinc had a fairly orderly uptrend up until the latter half of 2005. Huge Asian demand mixed with a little speculative excitement prompted three distinctly powerful rallies that shot zinc well out of its trend channel to far exceed its all-time nominal highs. The first of these monstrous rallies peaked in the first quarter of 2006 and happened in quasi-parabolic fashion.

In just 141 trading days zinc shot past the $1.00 mark for the first time ever and rewarded speculators that were long with a quick double. On the chart above, this first major rally doesn't quite show the parabolic-type strength as well as the next two. But when you step back and view it on a longer-term chart it looks almost like a straight line, something zinc has never before witnessed.

Now the types of parabolic rallies demonstrated by this first one are typically unsustainable and almost always end poorly for those caught at the top. But to show zinc's fundamental strength this 105% rally only had a very minor correction of 16% over 7 trading days before it entered into a textbook-perfect parabola that gave zinc another double over the next 58 trading days. In less than a year zinc climbed 242% before it decided to cool off a little.

In the second quarter of 2006 all the base metals took a breather off their highs with what seemed to be post-parabola-type corrections. And zinc was not excluded from this initial action. In just 18 trading days zinc shed 26% before it settled into a wedge-shaped consolidation similar to that of copper's.

But instead of breaking out to the downside like copper, zinc rocketed higher yet again to form another parabola, on a smaller scale than the previous two, to achieve new highs. In just 38 trading days zinc shot through the $2.00 mark and powered higher by 42%. Though the core of this zinc rally was driven by fundamentals that had seen the pilfered LME stockpile levels sink to only several days worth of daily consumption, a sizeable speculative risk premium was placed on this volatile metal.

With the continually declining zinc stock finally leveling off in the last few months, speculators locked in their profits and zinc once again languished into a consolidation zone. After a 52-trading-day 34% loss, it now looks like zinc is settling in to a longer and higher consolidation band off its huge 2006 parabola. A good portion of the euphoria has been bled off zinc in the last several months, but its levels today still would have been unimaginable just two years ago.

Now the nickel technicals are something to marvel at. This chart is simply mind-blowing. Nickel has been relentless in its march higher and has far and away been the best performing (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/nickel.htm) of the major base metals. Since its low around $2.00 in late 2001, it has soared over 1,000% to recent highs over $23.00 achieved just this week.

In a bull market that started in 2001, nickel climbed an incredible 302% to its beginning-of-2004 high that capped a nice parabolic surge. As with most post-parabolic action, nickel corrected sharply to the support of what turned out to be a multi-year uptrend channel. When this channel broke to the downside toward the end of 2005, only in a speculator's wildest dream would he have imagined that nickel was preparing for a quadruple over the next 1.5 years.

With stainless steel demanding 2/3rds of all the nickel supply, its amazing growth over the last fifty years in the Western world along with skyrocketing stainless steel growth coming out of China this decade has pinched the nickel miners. LME stockpiles continue to hover around record lows, with under two days worth of global nickel consumption available at this time.

With global stockpiles so low, imagine if there was a supply disruption on the mining front. This would surely wreak havoc on the nickel markets. Because of this, I believe nickel traders have built a significant risk premium into today's price. So until enough nickel is brought to market to push up inventory levels, speculators will likely keep nickel very high.

And high is where the price of nickel remains today. Since its 2005 low of just over $5.00, nickel has soared over 350% with little letup in its steep uptrend. A loose trend channel can be drawn over the last 1.5 years or so that has seen some mini parabolas and minor corrections, but in general nickel's trend is up and up. With this slope though I find it hard to envision a breakout anywhere else but to the downside in order to shed exuberant sentiment.

A first glance at lead's chart shows that it took a slightly different path than the other base metals. Similarities abound in its strong 2003/2004 upleg where it ended up gaining 142% from its late 2002 lows. But when LME stockpiles began to flatten from their falling trend in 2004 and 2005, base metals traders forgot about lead.

After a sizeable correction that shed 29% from lead's 2004 top in just 36 trading days, it rebounded over the next several months and proceeded to reside within a long and flat consolidation off this top for nearly two years. Then after a strong upleg off lead's 2005 low to its high in early 2006, a 76% gain, it did something peculiar that bucked the typical base metals' trend.

In the first half of 2006 when the other base metals were shooting to the moon, lead took the opposite path and entered into a nearly six-month downtrend. In 96 trading days lead shed 24% and appeared to be the plague of the commodities world. You would have thought we were back in the 1970s and 1980s when environmental drawbacks from lead usage in paints and gasoline were gnawing at this metal.

Speculators did actually have a fundamental reason to sell lead though during this time as LME stockpiles were starting to build again, but this was short-lived. As you can see in the chart, lead put the brakes on its slide and began another very strong upleg at the midpoint of last year. In just 99 trading days lead nearly doubled rocketing 93% higher before taking a quick breather.

After a modest correction off the top of this powerful upleg, lead consolidated horizontally showing that this dramatic rise had a fair amount of fundamental backing and that it wasn't quite ready to give up its ghost. In February lead then showed it was not yet done with this upleg and broke out on the high side of this consolidation to continue its amazing run with yet another all-time high being achieved just this week. Lead is now up an incredible 402% since its 2002 low and traders have seemed to open their eyes once again to this indispensable metal.

The last major base metal is aluminum. This metal is probably the least exciting of the base metals from a speculative perspective, but this titan is no slouch in the mining sector. As measured by volume, aluminum is the king of the base metals. More aluminum is mined each year than copper, zinc, lead and nickel combined.

And looking at aluminum's chart it does indeed mirror the general base metals story, just not at the same magnitude as the others. From its low in 2001 to its recent all-time nominal high last year, aluminum is only up 145%. Now this gain is certainly nothing to turn your head at, but it is much smaller than the other base metals.

Overall aluminum's upleg appears to be more orderly than the other base metals. Like the others it had a strong 2003/2004 upleg that produced a solid uptrend off of its highs. Then after an early 2005 correction aluminum rocketed to its high near $1.50 that capped off a quasi-parabolic surge.

After a steep selloff to balance sentiment that shed 25% in only 23 trading days, aluminum settled into an upward consolidation trend channel that has been going strong for over a year. Like many of the base metals, aluminum and its countless uses is integral to the massive infrastructure build-out worldwide. With many of the developing nations still just getting started in their build-outs, aluminum demand should be strong for quite some time.

Well after looking at these base metals technicals, I am just amazed at their resilience. These charts show very strong uplegs and parabolic surges that are frankly a rarity at the early stages these metals reside within their secular trends. Time and time again the base metals have resisted the calls to crash and have continued to power higher.

Some very-measurable fundamentals in the stockpiles of these metals have allowed the speculators to take hold of the base metals markets. But in what appeared to be pure speculative fervor that drove the swift ascents of the sharp 2006 uplegs, the resilient technicals since have continually defied this logic. Many folks are starting to take the fundamentals a little more seriously since the prices did not crash or even correct to levels where many thought they should go.

From a technical perspective it is indeed difficult to assess the futures of these metals and establish any sensible trading patterns. These sharp uplegs raised the moving averages to levels that many technicians still cannot swallow. While copper, zinc and aluminum continue to hover around their 200dmas and nickel and lead are well above, many are still trying to figure out where a true level of support should be for these base metals.

Ultimately the fundamentals are going to drive the technicals of the base metals markets. And there are indeed speculative risk premiums built into the prices of these base metals today. But it all depends on supply and demand to steer the strategic direction of the base metals' prices.

Regardless of where prices go in the near term, the way to profit on these strong base metals is through the stocks of the companies that mine them. Through many years of bear-market-low prices, the base metals producers have learned to structure their businesses to profit on historically low prices. But at the price levels we are seeing today, these companies are sporting enormous profit margins on each pound of their respective metals produced.

Even if prices retreated from today's levels down to long-term support levels that the initial bulls were building, these miners would still be incredibly profitable. These profits are reflected in the rapid appreciation of the base metals stocks of late. In a base metals stock report (http://www.zealllc.com/reports.htm) we published in September, the 20 companies we profiled have performed incredibly in just the last seven months. Many of these profiled stocks now have well over triple-digit gains since, and the average return is over 40%.

But there are still incredible opportunities to add base metals stocks to your portfolios. At Zeal we are always watching for these opportunities and when the technicals are highly favorable we recommend trades to our newsletter subscribers. If you are interested in cutting-edge commodities market analysis and actual trade recommendations for not only base metals stocks but a variety of commodities stocks, then please subscribe today (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm) to our acclaimed monthly newsletter (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm).

In addition to exclusive access to what we decide to trade and when, our subscribers also gain access to a large selection of private charts on our website. This collection includes high-resolution versions of base metals technicals charts that are updated weekly as well as long-term base metals charts that provide a historical context so that you can follow the progress of these ongoing base metals bulls yourself.

The bottom line is base metals technicals show these metals now trading in a territory that most would have never believed possible just a couple years ago. But although these perpetually high base metals prices have very strong support from their wildly bullish fundamentals, even the strongest of bull markets needs to periodically regress in order to balance sentiment.

I do not believe we are in a sentiment storm on either side of the emotional spectrum currently, but regardless of where these metals go in the future, the base metals miners are going to have money trees growing within their land holdings. Because the technicals of these base metals have defied conventional flows and ebbs, the stocks of their miners are what investors need to be watching.

Scott Wright

April 13, 2007 - http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/wright041307.html

mama mia
16.04.2007, 10:07
Zürcher Kantonalbank lanciert drei neue ETFs auf weisse Edelmetalle

16.04.2007 | 7:29 Uhr | Rohstoff-Welt.de (http://www.rohstoff-welt.de/news/autor.php?aid=28) (Redaktion (http://www.rohstoff-welt.de/news/autor.php?aid=28))
Nach der erfolgreichen Einführung des ZKB Gold ETF im Frühling 2006 erweitert die Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) die Produktpalette der Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) auf Edelmetalle um drei weitere ETFs: ZKB Silver ETF, ZKB Platinum ETF und ZKB Palladium ETF.

Den meisten konventionellen ETFs liegt ein Aktienindex oder ein Aktienkorb zugrunde. Anders bei den neuen ETFs der Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB): Sie basieren auf den physischen Edelmetallen Silber, Platin und Palladium und bilden die jeweilige Wertentwicklung ab.

Mit der erstmaligen Lancierung von ETFs auf Silber, Platin und Palladium übernimmt die ZKB eine Vorreiterrolle. Die neuen ETFs werden an der SWX Swiss Exchange kotiert und können dort voraussichtlich ab dem 10. Mai 2007 gehandelt werden. Die neuen Anlageprodukte richten sich an vermö-gende Privatkunden und Institutionelle Anleger.

Neben der Sicherheit durch die physische Deckung mit Edelmetallen kann der Investor seine Anteile jederzeit veräussern oder die Sachauszahlung des physischen Edelmetalls verlangen. Beim im Frühjahr 2006 lancierten ZKB Gold ETF, der heute über ein Investitionsvolumen von rund 460 Mio. Franken verfügt, fanden diese Produkteigenschaften grossen Anklang.

© Zürcher Kantonalbank

Tel. 044 292 29 79
Fax 044 292 38 23
E-Mail: medien@zkb.ch - http://www.rohstoff-welt.de/news/artikel.php?sid=260#Scene_1

mama mia
16.04.2007, 13:44
Perched Precariously on a Precipice

Peter Schiff
Apr 16, 2007

The dollar is no longer responding to traditional stimulants. This week, despite the apparently "hawkish" tone in the recently released Fed minutes, and trade deficit figures that were slightly less horrific than expected, the dollar nevertheless declined against just about every currency on the planet. As a result, it now teeters dangerously close to the edge of a very large precipice. Looming large is the 80 level of the U.S. Dollar Index which has stood as long term support for almost thirty years. This week, the Index broke below 82, and is sinking fast. When this critical level is breached, look out below. Without any support beneath it, the dollar could literally fall off a cliff.

The trajectory of the dollar is linked to America's economic status in the world. Last week we learned, thanks in part to the strengthening euro, that the market capitalization of European shares now exceeds the market capitalization of American shares for the first time since before the First World War. At the current rate of appreciation, European shares will have a market cap 50% greater than American shares by the end of the decade. However, should the dollar decline turn into a free fall, this could happen much sooner.

For individual currencies, the British pound warrants particular attention as it approaches the significant two-to-one level against the dollar. The pound currently trades for about $1.99, and has not meaningfully breached $2.00 since the early 1980's. The euro, currently trading above $1.35, is bumping against its all time high of just under $1.37 against the dollar. The Australian dollar has already hit a new 17-year high and is perhaps a harbinger of things to come. The sole laggard among major currencies has been the Japanese yen (and to a lesser extent the Swiss franc), which has been held down by the infamous carry trade. When it unwinds (which would clearly be evidenced by a break below the 110 level), buckle your seat belt as all that will stand between the dollar and oblivion will be the Bank of China.

On that note, yesterday the Bank of China quietly dropped the bombshell that its foreign currency reserves, which had just passed the $1 trillion benchmark a few months ago, had swelled in the first quarter of 2007 to more than $1.2 trillion. At this rate, China will amass more than $2 trillion dollars in reserve sometime next year. I can only imagine how low the dollar would already be were it not for the massive foreign aid provided by the Chinese.

So far the Dollar Index has tested the 80 level five times in the past: 1978, 1990, 1992, 1995, and 2004. On several of those occasions it took massive, coordinated interventions by all the world's central banks to rescue the dollar. However, given the enormity of today's imbalances and the sheer number of dollars in foreign hands, such a bailout seems unlikely.

Perhaps the most significant warning sign is the break out in the price of gold. This is the first time the Dollar Index has hit this level with gold trading above $400 per ounce (although it might have been slightly above that level in 2004). Of course gold was considerably above $400 per ounce in 1980, but it was only about $200 per ounce in 1978. Though the dollar was under pressure in 1980, the index itself only fell to about 85. Currently, spot gold is trading at about $680 per ounce.

The strength in gold is also a good indication that this time around the U.S. dollar can count on little help from its friends. Rising gold prices reveal the suspicion with which many now view fiat currencies and central bankers' resolve to keep them sound. Therefore, foreign central banks will be reluctant to take actions to further weaken their own currencies, ushering in greater domestic inflation and calling into question the soundness of their own respective monetary policies. Low gold prices gave cover to such inflationary interventions in the past, but today's rising prices urge caution. As a result, the chances that the dollar can dodge another bullet are increasingly remote.

Despite the impending gravity of this situation, few show any worry. Perhaps the dollar will bounce from these levels and will buy us a little more time, but how much? When the support ultimately gives way all hell will break loose. A sharp decline in the Dollar Index below the 80 level will likely take down the bond, stock, and real estate markets as well. Since a lower dollar will exert additional upward pressure on already rising consumer prices, the ensuing combination of rising inflation, higher interest rates and lower asset prices will be a toxic mix.

For a more in depth analysis of the U.S. economy and why it is in so much trouble, read my new book "Crash http://www.321gold.com/books/images/crashproof.jpg (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470043601/maccpu)Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse." Click here (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470043601/maccpu) to order a copy today.

More importantly, make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com (http://www.goldyoucanfold.com/), download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com (http://www.researchreportone.com/), and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter (http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp).

Peter Schiff

mama mia
16.04.2007, 20:06
Gold hits highest level this year on soft dollar

By Enid Tsui in London

Published: April 16 2007 15:00 | Last updated: April 16 2007 15:00

Gold hit its highest level this year as the dollar continued its fall on Monday despite the release of stronger-than-expected March retail figures.

The price of gold reached $688.40 a troy ounce by early Monday afternoon, compared with Friday’s closing price of $675.70, as the dollar lost value against most major currencies except the yen and reduced the relative cost of the dollar-denominated asset. The previous trading high for the yellow metal was $687.40 per troy ounce on February 26.

James Steel, an analyst with HSBC Global Research, said the slide of the dollar would continue to lift gold prices as long as the long term fundamentals for the US economy do not deteriorate alongside a decline in the equity markets. In that scenario, Mr Steel said, gold would fall in line with a rapid decline in global risk appetite and global liquidity.

Other precious metals also put in a strong performance on Monday, reacting to both the soft dollar and news that Switzerland’s Zurich Cantonal Bank would launch exchange-traded funds based on platinum, palladium and silver next month.

Platinum was trading at $1,276 per troy ounce by 13:30 GMT, up from Friday’s $1,266. Palladium sold at $372 a troy ounce, up from Friday’s 11-month high of $367. Silver also strengthened from a previous fixing of $13.88 to $14.

Among base metals, copper continued to firm as concerns regarding production persisted. Workers at Freeport-McMoran’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia said on Monday they would press on with strike action if talks scheduled for Tuesday failed to make progress.

Copper was quoted at $7,959 a tonne, up from Friday’s $7.700. Nickel hit $50,100 at 13:00 GMT, up from $46,550 a tonne.

ICE June Brent was down 31 cents at $68.31 per barrel while the Nymex May West Texas Intermediate was down 64 cents at $63 a barrel.


mama mia
16.04.2007, 20:16
...komischer Tag heute :schwitz:rolleyes

Apr 16, 2007 07:07 NY Time Bid/Ask 691.70 - 692.30 Low/High 684.60 - 692.40 Change (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:NewWindow%28%27/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#Change%27,%27LiveSpotGold%27,%27top=50,left=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependant=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,scrollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0%27%29;) +6.90 +1.01%

:schwitz diese unterschiedlichen Preise :confused:rolleyes


Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1033225#post1033225)

forex-spot sind Preise, die vom "Club" gemacht werden. (Interbankenhandel)
Da kann dann reelle Nachfrage schon mal etwas höher stehen.

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1033258#post1033258)

merci :verbeug schloss - ist aber eher selten, dass sich ein Unterschied so hartnäckig hält und meistens war es eher umgekehrt, dass die Kitcoler tiefer waren :rolleyes:schwitz:o;):D

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1033285#post1033285)

Das stimmt...mal sehen, was der Club noch so in petto hat bis heute abend ;)

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1033287#post1033287)
...immer noch eine rechte Differenz :rolleyes
Apr 16, 2007 14:13 NY Time Bid/Ask 694.50 - 695.00 Low/High 684.60 - 695.30 Change (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:NewWindow%28%27/glossary/LiveSpotGold.html#Change%27,%27LiveSpotGold%27,%27top=50,left=200,width=500,height=350,channelmode=0,dependant=1,fullscreen=0,resizable=no,toolbar=0,status=0,scrollbars=1,location=0,menubar=0,directories=0%27%29;) +0.30 +0.04%

mama mia
16.04.2007, 21:52
Gold: Will it outperform Silver?

By Sam Kirtley
April 16, 2007

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/share/bg_trans.gif www.silver-prices.net (http://www.silver-prices.net/)


Gold and silver are in many ways very similar metals. They have both been used throughout history as money and to store wealth with silver long being considered “poor man's gold”. Gold prices and silver prices tend to move in very similar patterns and so those who are bullish on gold are usually bullish on silver and vice versa. Gold and silver are both precious metals, along with platinum, but there seems to be a closer relationship between gold and silver than there is between the other metals, although they all have similar uses, such as being used in jewellery.

However, with the ever rapidly advancing world of technology, we are beginning to see a separation in the metals. The main change is in the increase of silver usage. Of course silver and gold have long been used in jewellery, but silver has many industrial uses such as photography, dental alloys, bactericides, solder and brazing alloys, electrical contacts, batteries, mirrors, solar panels catalytic converters and much more. The fact is that silver is becoming both a monetary metal and an industrial metal, unlike gold, which is mainly a monetary metal, jewellery aside.

So, How will this additional demand affect silver prices?

Well as far as we can see this extra demand can only have a positive affect on silver prices. More silver being used in industry means less silver on the market, which leads to higher prices being paid for the remaining silver.

When speculating on the current precious metals Bull Market, it is important to look at the history of the metals, and how they have performed in previous bull markets. In the last precious metal Bull Market, both gold and silver performed extremely well and investors would have made handsome profits in either of the metals. Nevertheless, it is important to look at which metal performed the most attractively, in order to gage which metal is to make the most significant gains this time around.

Firstly we look at what gold prices did in the boom that peaked in early 1980. In the final part of the Bull Market, gold prices shot up an incredible $620, that is equivalent to 270%, in little over a year.


Gold's gains may have been amazingly dramatic, but they were unable to match the drama that was unfolding in the silver market. Silver outperformed gold by more than double, by a factor of just over 2.2 to be precise, with silver gaining over 600% in the same period that gold gained 270% in.

Will silver do the same this time around?


We think it is unlikely that silver will outperform gold to such an extent this time around. This is mainly due to the fact that silver had the backing of the International Metals Investment Company Ltd. I can almost hear you say, “Had the backing of what?” Well this was the company set up by the Hunt brothers and their partners with the single aim of cornering the silver market. They proceeded to try and buy all the silver that they could get their hands on, therefore pushing prices to extreme heights. It is of course possible that there is another Nelson Bunker Hunt out there, plotting with his partners on how to corner the silver market, but none that we are aware of.

However, we do not think that silver will outperform gold to such an extent; we do think it will outperform gold as silver prices are beginning to do so already.

From the start of this current precious metals bull up until 2004, gold was moving steadily higher, whilst silver was following it somewhat reluctantly. But just before we entered 2004, silver started to catch up with gold's gains and the two metals performed on a pretty much equal basis from 2004 to 2006, with silver being the more volatile of the two. However during 2006 we saw silver pull away from gold, steaming ahead more viciously than had been seen before. Since then silver has outperformed gold, as the chart below illustrates.


On the contrary it is possible that silver will go back to under performing gold, as it did in the period before 2004 or that silver will return to moving in approximately the same way as gold does. It is also worth noting that gold also has uses besides being a monetary metal and being used in jewellery. Gold has its uses in the industrial world, although not to the extent that silver has. Gold is used in many electronic components because of gold’s outstanding ability to conduct both thermal and electrical energy. The medical industry also uses a share of the gold market, consuming around 2% of supply each year. This is a fairly small proportion and is considered to be a stable demand although industry in total represent about 11% of gold demand, approximately 400 tonnes each year (average from 2001-2005). Overall however, industry puts a larger demand on silver than it does on gold and that it one of the factors that may push silver higher than gold in this Bull Market.

One thing that is also very clear is that silver prices behave with much more volatility than gold due to the fact that the silver market is considerably thinner that the gold market. This thinness of volume means that when an influx of investment capital enters the silver market, it will send silver prices higher than gold, relatively speaking, because silver is a smaller market.

In conclusion, here at www.silver-prices.net (http://www.silver-prices.net/) we think that silver will outperform gold, but not on the same level as it did in the last precious metals Bull Market. The driving factors will be additional demand from industry not from an attempted monopolization, although anything is possible. Therefore if you are bullish on precious metals, it might be a good idea to weight your portfolio towards silver, more so than gold. For ideas on which silver stocks to invest in, as well as commentary on the general silver market, subscribe to the Silver Prices newsletter at www.silver-prices.net (http://www.silver-prices.net/) completely free of charge.

Sam Kirtley



mama mia
16.04.2007, 22:15
...jetzt wieder ungefähr gleichauf :rolleyes

mama mia
17.04.2007, 07:55
Gold Action #440

Dr. Clive Roffey
Apr 16, 2007

The gold market has broken out of the confines of its 15 month correction. This is a huge step forward as it not only signals the penetration of a frustrating churning period that has driven all gold share holders to distraction but also signals the start of wave 3 in big wave III. The long term implications are enormous. Certainly there will be some huge moves in the gold shares as they more than make up for lost time. But also the gold price is ready for some real action not only in both Dollar and Rand terms but also against all the leading global currencies. This again has huge potential repercussions.

Some time ago in this newsletter, and at all the various seminars at which I am invited to present data, I detailed the chart showing French analyst Thomas Chaises data that there is a 20 year up cycle followed by a ten year down cycle in gold production. We are well into the down cycle and this is repeatedly confirmed by the continuous reports showing falling gold production on a global scale. Demand is outstripping supply and even the most lethargic central bank official will be able to grasp that selling gold at current levels will be a stupid investment decision. On that score Gordon Brown sold out the UK's gold at the sub $300 lows and it has now emerged that he apparently also stuffed the UK's pension scheme, and they want him as the next P.M.??????????

But the key to the gold market is the relative performance data. Gold shares have under performed the metal in both dollar and rand terms. But there are strong signs that this period of negativity has ended and that a new bull market has started in which gold shares will out perform the metal price. Ensure that you have a good exposure to gold stocks as they are likely to be the strongest performing sector going forward. In addition I have recently presented data on TV to illustrate that South African gold stocks are likely to out perform their North American counterparts.

Metal prices in general have taken off. Palladium has broken above its $350 resistance and so has Platinum broken above the $1250 resistance. This is only the start of a new bull phase in most metal prices that should see all time new highs by the end of the year. This bullish data also applies to the soft commodities of wheat, sugar and coffee.

Whether fundamental analysts like it or not this market remains resource orientated and dominated. I have maintained this stance since 2004 and have absolutely no reason to change my opinions. Stay with the resource sectors on all global markets as they are likely to continue to outgun the general equities.

Last week I sent out a piece of data on DRD that was forwarded to me. It was an erroneous piece of work that had been put together a long time ago. Unfortunately I did not read it thoroughly and apologize for the inaccuracy of the data. In recompense I have detailed my long term interpretation of the DRD data that should send my foaming at the mouth critics diving to their keyboards to produce the usual paroxysms of scorn and derision.

But what happens to them if I am proved correct in my analysis???!!!

Despite all the frustrations associated with the gold market I have been absolutely consistent in my analysis that dictates the recent 15 month correction was merely a short term minor move in the long term picture. In addition it was a weak correction heralding a strong forward move for the JSE Gold index. I am looking for a powerful gold share market that will now make up for lost time and produce a strong upside surge in share prices as the market continues in its long term trend in wave III. Some of the moves could be breathtaking so ensure that you have a solid exposure to the gold share market in your portfolios.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/1.gif This is my long term analysis of DROOY.

Since 1986 it has been trading inside a massive flat top triangle. The sell off at the end of last year was, as I have often detailed, the final act in a long term correction. This formed what Elliott referred to as an A-B base pattern that is also known as a double bottom in standard pattern analysis. B wave sell offs such as that of the past six months are usually associated with the final negative aspects of the company. All the rubbish comes out and the stock will never again move into a bull trend. In many cases it is deemed to be on the way to the scrap heap. But a sudden reversal occurs that leads the share into a new bull trend. I believe that has already started by the bounce off the 370c bottom. A move above 500c will confirm this reversal.

But the B wave sell off in the A-B base is not just the final leg of a massive long term correction; it is also the START of a massive new bull market. This will be a long term bull market that is likely to take the ultimate price to ALL TIME NEW HIGHS. Yes, this implies a move above R55. Obviously it will take some doing in the case of DROOY. But the bottom line is that all the negative crap is on the table and the news from here on in is likely to be far more positive. In fact I believe that the NASDAQ requirement of the share price being above $1 by July has already been addressed by a proposed ADR share readjustment. At present one ADR is issued in the US for every DROOY share. This is likely to change to 4 or 5 DROOY shares per ADR. This will push the $ price up by whatever is the multiple without affecting the issued share capital. It is a simple remedy that immediately kills the idea that NASDAQ will ditch DRD from their quotation boards.

From a purely technical viewpoint DROOY has been in a colossal triangular pattern for the past 21 years. Now that this pattern has completed it becomes necessary for the share price to move above the top of the triangle and give an upside target count equal to the longest leg added onto the breakout. I will leave you to do the calculations!!! According to my data DROOY is not just a long term ten bagger but also a potential long term twenty bagger. It remains a serious buy for all types of portfolios.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/2.gif This is the monthly chart of DROOY with its RSI in the bottom frame. There are classic buy and sell divergence signals prior to the current situation. In addition the RSI has dipped under the lower Bollinger Band at the bottom of the second leg of the current buy divergence. This confirms the end of the B wave sell off and the start of a new long term bull trend.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/3.gif DROOY is shown against the JSE Overall index in blue. This relative strength data has been in a constant down trend over the past 21 years. But there have been occasions where a buy divergence on the blue relative strength led to a very strong upside price surge. There is another such long term buy divergence at this point of time indicating a trend reversal to strength relative to the general equity market. I am expecting DROOY to not only reverse trend strongly but to also outgun the general market for a long period of time.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/4.gif This is the daily chart of DROOY in New York. It has broken strongly above the critical 70c resistance during the past two night's trading. This is a powerful upside breakout on the daily data and not only signals the end of the down move but also the start of a new bull market.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/5.gif The Elliott Wave chart configuration of the short term correction in DROOY on the JSE had the classic a-b-c format of the Zig-Zag. As usual this formation developed into a flag pattern on the chart. This was broken upside on Thursday and a move above 500c will confirm the upside breakout to a new bull trend from what was a ridiculously oversold area. I am expecting a sharp upside surge to attack the 850c resistance.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/6.gif The JSE Gold index is shown with its relative strength against the JSE Overall index in blue. The I-II correction is clear as is the 1-2 first move in the next big wave III. The whole point of this data is to show that the 1-2 has finished and that wave 3 has commenced. In addition the format of the 1-2 correction was a weak a-b-c format in which wave c stayed above the low of wave a. This indicates a weak correction heralding a strong forward move. Also note that the blue relative strength has formed a falling wedge pattern that also indicates a powerful trend reversal. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/7.gif The JSE Gold index vs Rand price of Gold has an almost identical picture. The same falling wedge pattern applies on the relative strength. The conclusion from this data is that gold shares have ended their period of negative performance relative to the Rand price of gold and are likely to strongly outperform it going forward. This is powerful data. Note the flag pattern of the big I-II correction on the JSE Gold index. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607/8.gif The $ JSE Gold index chart had a rectangular format for the big I-II move against the flag pattern on the JSE. IN a similar vein the recent 1-2 took the form of a flat bottom triangle as opposed to the diamond pattern of the JSE. But the key to this data is the relative strength of the JSE relative to the HUI index that is primarily composed of North American stocks. There is a falling wedge on the blue relative strength that again indicates a strong upside reversal of trend. After under performing the North Americans for six years the South Africans are about to outgun their US counterparts.

Apr 16, 2007
Dr. Clive Roffey - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey041607.html

mama mia
17.04.2007, 08:00
Commodities - April 17, 2007
April 17, 2007


London - Precious metals hit fresh peaks again yesterday as new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lifted palladium and platinum, and gold stopped $1 (R7.09) short of an 11-month high on a weak dollar.

Platinum and palladium touched five- and 11-month highs, respectively, after Zurich Cantonal Bank said it would launch ETFs in the metals next month. Gold rose $4.75 to $686.50 an ounce at the second fix in London, off a seven-week best of $688.10. - Reuters

mama mia
17.04.2007, 22:20
Copper futures close at a contract high
Gold futures fall from a seven-week high, but hold ground above $690

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B8a38cd12-52a8-44cb-84b3-6e825e592c53%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B8a38cd12-52a8-44cb-84b3-6e825e592c53%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:11 PM ET Apr 17, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Copper futures rallied Tuesday, with concerns over potential supply disruptions from Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold's Grasberg mine in Indonesia lifting prices for the benchmark May contract to its highest level ever in New York.
Meanwhile, gold futures closed lower, pulling back from the high of $695.50 an ounce it reached during the session, which marked the June contract's highest level in seven weeks.
Copper supplies in London headed lower, with London Metal Exchange warehouse stocks last down 2,575 metric at 172,025, the lowest since mid-December, according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.
At the same time, workers from Freeport's (FCX (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/fcx) :71.41, +0.30, +0.4% ) Grasberg mine called off planned talks with the company on Tuesday and said they would go ahead with a protest rally over better welfare for native workers, he said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/gifquotes/story-sm-ss.img?symb=FCX&time=8&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa:0&comp=&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&state=0&sid=14920&startdate=&enddate=39189&nosettings=1&style=1012&size=1&mocktick=1&rand= (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=FCX)
Overnight, Freeport had said it was optimistic the meeting with disgruntled Papuan workers would head off the protest, he said.
Against this backdrop, copper for May delivery climbed as high as $3.6925 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's an intraday level never before seen for the contract. It closed up 3.9%, or 13.75 cents, at $3.677.
Tuesday afternoon, "the market has rallied on fund buying, against a background of benign U.S. inflation data," said Hayes.
Gold pull back
Gold futures took second billing Tuesday, easing back after Monday's climb.
June gold fell $2 to close at $692.50 an ounce on Nymex. On Monday, gold futures closed up 0.7%, adding $4.60 to stand at $694.50 an ounce, the highest close since Feb. 26.
"Some participants cashed in their chips," explained Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Some traders feel that there may be more consolidation ahead before gold prices manage to break the psychologically important $700 mark," Action Economics said in a research note.
James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said gold "appears to be catching its breath."
However, "momentum is still firmly to the upside with further diversification away from the dollar looking set to propel gold through $700 and on to challenge the $732 high we saw last May," Moore said in a note to clients.
Weakness in the dollar did little to support the gold market Tuesday.
The dollar dipped after a Labor Department report showed U.S. core consumer inflation rose 0.1% in March, lower than a 0.2% gain expected by economists. See Economic Report. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/cpi-rises-06-march-core/story.aspx?guid=%7BD70252FC%2D170F%2D4F82%2DB098%2D9041B3987419%7D) The headline consumer price index rose 0.6%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.7%. The euro was up 0.3%, and the dollar was down 0.4% vs. the yen. The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the British pound, breaching the $2 level. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/pound-breaks-2-first-time/story.aspx?guid=%7B42E858B5%2DBCA1%2D49B8%2D98D4%2D74F51E441B02%7D)
An earlier climb in crude-oil prices also did little to help gold. Crude futures eased back to close lower Tuesday, but earlier in the session it was underpinned by unrest in Nigeria and declining gasoline supplies ahead of the summer driving season. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-closes-lower-gasoline-futures/story.aspx?guid=%7BADC418EF%2DA4D0%2D41C0%2DB4A1%2D08341485C981%7D)
Most other metals prices moved lower along with gold, though June palladium rose $1.35 to close at $380.35 an ounce.
May silver fell 6 cents to end at $14.02 an ounce and July platinum fell $8.60 to close at $1,280.90 an ounce.
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse were unchanged at 7.6 million troy ounces as of late Monday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose 1.18 million troy ounces to stand at 127.56 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell 112 short tons to 35,796 short tons.

mama mia
18.04.2007, 08:07
www.ConspiracyPenPal.com http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/images/edhead.jpgThis is the only source for the absolutely free, somewhat regular and almost always peripatetic newsletter from Edgar J. Steele, occasionally referred to as "Attorney for the Damned."

Steele always discusses politically-incorrect issues of general import and often illustrates his colorful and lively ranting with aspects of the higher-profile cases being handled by his law firm.

Frequent updates and in-depth reports on some cases, designed to provide a viewpoint rarely afforded those who aren't actually sitting at counsel table during trial.

(Click here for brief biography and picture (http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/bio.htm))

New Nickel Rants: Obama? Yomama! (Jan 23)... Brain Worms (Jan 14)... We Hung the Wrong Guy! (Dec 31)... New Columns: "Jesus Had It Coming..." (Mar 25) Marchin' Lootin' Killin' Day (Jan 15)... The Sound of Laughter (Dec 17)... April 17, 2007 - So Much for Business as Usual

(To my long-time faithful readers: As promised, "Jesus Had It Coming..." contained something to outrage everybody. The Chosen have been fit to be tied. The follow-on discussion I mentioned is in the works as I pick through the aftermath. Here is yet another Market Update, which serves two purposes: First, it is important to all of us, far out of proportion to things financial in the past. Second, these articles are proving to be most productive in bringing in fresh open minds that are just aching to be opened a bit more with our particular brand of politics, social commentary and, of course, today's rarest commodity: the truth.)

If you have been following the dollar's miseries, as I have suggested repeatedly, you noticed that "they" let it slip beneath 82.0 this past Friday. This, after letting it slide beneath 83.0 just three weeks ago, though they promptly drew a new line in the dirt at 83.0. This, after letting it pancake downward like a World Trade Center implosion, always shoring it up for a time at nice, round numbers like 85.0, then floor 84.0, then floor 83.0. Friday always has been the day they pushed the dollar back up, so that the figures could be staring us in the face all weekend, while the markets were closed.

Now the dollar sinks below floor 82.0 this past Friday and seems still to be floundering, much as a nonswimmer in over his head might do just prior to sinking out of sight. Odd behavior, given recent trends by government-sponsored price manipulators, eh? Where's the cavalry?

Well, I strongly suspect this marks the beginning of a new stage in the dollar's demise. No, I don't think we're in the basement express elevator, but I do think it likely that there are several floors about to be traversed very quickly.

What's different this week?

First, a great many knowledgable commentators suddenly have gone bullish on gold and silver. Many of these guys cautioned against loading up on precious metals until just recently.

Second, technical analysts galore speak of the indicators breaking out and pointing to imminent increases. Of course, technicians are like neurologists and tea-leaf readers: show them all the same thing and each will have a different opinion. What is odd is how bullish so many of them seem to be right at the moment.

Third, the dollar's death spiral has to happen, as surely as little green apples are about to appear all over the Northern Hemisphere. I write about this progression at length in my book (http://www.defensiveracism.com/), which still is right on the money regarding where our economy (and world events, including the upcoming WWIII - yes, indeed, folks, there is war after Anna Nicole Smith and Don Imus).

But, here is the single most important piece of information, the one that eclipses all that I mention above (and several things, including the hem-line stock market predictor, that I failed to mention): Goldman Sachs, the brokerage firm from which all significant government financial controllers, both American and British, emerged in recent years, now is covering its gold shorts. LeMetropoleCafe.com, one of the very best Internet subscription newsletters, second only to the free Daily Reckoning, in my opinion, today published a very interesting chart laying Goldman's gold short positions (in red) against the price of gold (in yellow):


Okay, I see your beady little eyes glazing over. Stop that! Pay attention, because this is important! Ignore all the dotted lines and all the little squiggles and even all the zigs and the zags. They aren't important, despite what many might have you believe.

There is just one, single thing of importance that literally jumps off the page: Goldman's short position has traveled essentially sideways since gold's most recent takedown in late summer of last year, but suddenly has dropped like a rock (someday we likely will be saying, concerning a failing investment, that "it dropped like a dollar").

Consider the record profits of Goldman and the other brokerage behemoths that make up the market manipulation team. Consider the monster bonuses paid out. Consider all those guys who left Goldman and now work for Blair and Bush. Consider how easy it would be to make money at roulette if you simply knew, on each throw of the wheel, whether the result would be red or black.

Now, do the math. Is this a head fake? Almost certainly not. Like America's current Treasury Secretary and former Goldman CEO, Goldman Sachs is far too arrogant. Is the dollar about to sink several floors with no support, which means that gold and silver will rise in direct proportion? My guess: yes.

Or, as the wise folks over at LeMetropoleCafe.com said today: "...we are in the start of a huge upleg in gold. Goldman Sachs has decided to get out of Dodge!"

Should you buy gold and silver? Maybe. They aren't going to get any cheaper, that's for sure. Should you hold what you have? Absolutely!!!

For all those who have forgotten: I favor silver over gold because its fundamentals are more promising and because I fear a reenactment of FDR's gold seizure. My personal preference is for silver rounds and 10-oz silver bars. I continue personally to recommend the services of Steve Baldwin, owner of the Spokane Coin Exchange (800-577-8332), a fellow who ships all over the world and who never has let me or any list member down.

If, against all odds apparent to me, you decide to sell into the coming upswing, be sure to let me know, so that I can put you in contact with list members willing to pay you spot for your precious metals. If only I could afford to be one of them...



mama mia
18.04.2007, 08:20
Fears grow that Britain has lost control of its remaining gold

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2007-04-17 13:07. Section: Daily Dispatches (http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/2) By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, April 17, 2007

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/17/cngold... (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/17/cngold17.xml)

As Gordon Brown prepares for a grilling in the Commons over his fire-sale auction of Britain's gold at the bottom of the market, concern is mounting that the Treasury may have lost control over the small amount still left in its vaults.

Peter Hambro, head of Britain's largest pure gold mining company, said he believed the Bank of England may have leased out its bullion to earn extra yield.

"The real risk is that the Treasury has lent out the remainder of the gold. It is very important to know whether the bank's gold lending is on a secured basis," he said. The concern is that counter-parties could default in a crisis such as the LTCM-Ashanti affair in 1998.

"The whole point of gold is that it's not somebody else's paper currency. It's the stuff that keeps you alive when everything else goes wrong," he said.

Central banks around the world have routinely lent out gold over the years to bullion banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. The IMF last year questioned if they had lent out more gold than publicly revealed, a situation that would leave the market a large overhang of "short" positions. The Treasury said last night that it would look into any possible gold loans.

With gold now trading at $690 an ounce, Mr Brown's decision to break ranks with the US, Japan, France, and Germany by selling off 395 tonnes of gold has cost taxpayers more than £2 billion.

In a move that astonished dealers, Mr Brown insisted on selling the gold in open auctions. The first sale drove the price down to $254, the low-point of an 18-year slide. There were 17 auctions between July 1999 and March 2002 yielding an average of $274.9 an ounce.

Ross Norman, director of TheBullionDesk.com, said the reason for the sales was to support the fledgling euro. The proceeds were switched into 40pc euros, 40pc dollars, and 20pc yen. "His motives were political, but it was carried out in an incredibly foolish way, just as the market was turning up."


mama mia
18.04.2007, 17:45
Metals - Gold recovers as US dollar hits fresh two year lows against euro

Wed, Apr 18 2007, 09:50 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com (http://www.afxnews.com/)

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold recovered from a bout of profit taking yesterday as the US dollar hit a fresh two year low against the euro, with players saying the metal might dip further before mounting its assault on the 700 usd mark.

"Everyone's looking for a pullback ... because we've gained so much recently, but overall the trend is still up. The belief is that the dollar has a long way to go yet so that's only going to support gold," said a trader.

At 10.22 am, spot gold was at 689.90 usd an ounce, up from 687.40 usd in late New York trades yesterday.

The metal hit an 11 month high of 691.60 usd on Monday but retreated yesterday despite a weak US dollar, as players cashed in on the metal's near 2 pct gains in just under a week.

"The weaker US dollar is clearly underpinning the gold price. We continue to look for a move towards 700-715 usd in the next 1-3 months," said JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen.

A weaker dollar boosts gold's appeal as an alternative asset to the US currency. Also, as gold is traded in dollars, a weak dollar makes the metal cheaper for holders of other currencies.

The dollar hit a fresh two year low of 1.3614 usd against the euro earlier, and hit a new 26-year low of 2.0132 usd against the pound in the immediate aftermath of strong UK earnings figures.

Market participants said while physical demand in Asia is tailing off because the price of gold is deemed too high, fund players, especially in the US, are set on pushing bullion to ever higher levels.

"We wouldn't be surprised to see the highs (of last year) broken over the next month... Gold always benefits when cash becomes a losing asset," said Adrian Ash, an analyst at BullionVault.com.

Elsewhere, platinum edged up to 1,277 usd an ounce against 1,276 usd in late New York trades yesterday, while palladium was up at 370 usd an ounce against 373 usd yesterday.

Both metals are still benefiting from news a Swiss bank is planning to launch exchange traded funds in the two metals, even though key platinum producer Angloplat has said it won't supply physical metal to the platinum ETF.

ETFs trade commodity futures and back up every ounce of stock bought on paper with actual physical stock. As a result, the launch of an ETF often squeezes the market as it eats up the amount of physical stock available.

Silver was up at 13.97 usd an ounce against 13.91 usd in late New York trades.



Copyright AFX News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.


mama mia
18.04.2007, 22:15
Platinum hits 7-1/2 month high on dollar, ETF news

Wed Apr 18, 2007 11:51AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. platinum futures jumped 1.5 percent to a 7-1/2 month high on Wednesday, helped by a weak dollar and robust investment demand on the back of a planned launch of new exchange-traded funds.

At 11:41 a.m. EDT, most-active July platinum (PLN7: Quote (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=PLN7), Profile (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=PLN7), Research (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=PLN7)) trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up $18.10, or 1.4 percent, at $1,299.00 an ounce, the loftiest level since September 2006.

Last week, Switzerland's Zurich Cantonal Bank said it planned to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on platinum, palladium and silver from the next month, boosting investment demand.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotS...WEN659420070418 (http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSWEN659420070418)

mama mia
18.04.2007, 22:21
U.S. gold edges up as dollar hits lows, eyes $700

Wed Apr 18, 2007 10:27AM EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold futures inched up early in New York on Wednesday, boosted by the dollar which was trading near record lows against the euro and sterling, as gold prices were within sight of the psychological $700 level.

At 10:13 a.m. EDT (1413 GMT), most-active gold futures for June delivery (GCM7: Quote (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=GCM7), Profile (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=GCM7), Research (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=GCM7)) on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 40 cents at $692.90 an ounce, trading in a tight $5 band from $689.00 to $695.40.

Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals marketing at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta, said that gold was trading sideways after a run-up in the last week and a half, and that it was regrouping ahead of a possible test of resistance later.

The June contract has gained nearly 8 percent after it hit a low of $643.80 on March 14.

Hunter said that spot gold was stuck in a range beneath resistance of $690 to $691, but physical buying supported prices below $686.

"I think, overall, the upward trend is still intact, probably going to be trying $700 some time in the next week or so," he said.

Spot gold (XAU=: Quote (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=XAU=), Profile (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=XAU=), Research (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=XAU=)) was quoted at $688.80/689.30 an ounce, above a late quote of $686.70/687.20 in New York on Tuesday. London's afternoon gold fix was set at $688.75.

Hunter said that there was a growing realization among the physical buyers that bullion would test $700 soon.

mama mia
18.04.2007, 22:36
Keep Focused

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
The Aden Sisters
Apr 18, 2007
Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com/)

Gold is on the rise. Investors are excited, especially after last month's volatility, which proved to be nerve wracking for many gold investors. This alone reinforces why it's important to focus on the major trend.

Chart 1 shows gold's mega uptrend and as you can see, the volatility over the past year doesn't look like much. On the contrary, this chart illustrates gold's strength as it sits near the high side of the rise that started in 2001. This is the most important picture to keep in mind when investing in gold. The bull market since 2001 is clearly underway.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden041807/1.gif If this mega uptrend and channel stays in force, and we believe that it will for the reasons discussed in our article of March 9, 2007, then this bull market rise is going to make the 1970s spectacular rise look small in comparison. It will take time, but it's powerful because it's more of a global market today compared to the 1970s.

We can't stress enough how important the major trends are. Most assets have been up since 2003, but it's also important to see where the real strength lies. And it lies in gold because gold is better than stocks, bonds and the currencies.


Note that the mega trend changed in 2002 when the ratio between gold and the Dow Industrials changed to favor gold (see Chart 2). These changes do not happen often but when they do, then the pendulum has swung and it still has a long way to go. This means that gold will continue to outperform stocks for years to come, like it's done in recent years. So this is another key mega chart to keep in mind when investing.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden041807/2.gif When we say gold, we mean the gold universe and the best investments within this ample sector. That includes silver, the other precious metals, natural resources and energy.

Other positive signs that reinforce a powerful bull market are when gold is strong in all currencies, and when all of the precious metals are rising in major uptrends. This is happening today.

Gold is strong in all currencies and so is silver (see Chart 3, which shows silver's surge against the euro since 2003). And all of the precious metals are on the rise.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden041807/3.gif SUPPLY NOT KEEPING UP WITH DEMAND

We have often discussed the reasons why gold will stay on track to rise in the years, and more likely decades ahead. Aside from growing global monetary inflation, price inflation, out of sight deficits and debt, a weak U.S. dollar and the war, there's also a growing shortage. In fact, there's currently a shortage in many commodities.

Gold production is down around the world. South African gold production, for instance, fell to its lowest level in 84 years last year. From the U.S., to Australia, Peru, Russia to Canada, production was also down. China was about the only country to increase its production.

And this is happening while demand is growing worldwide. The growth in China's demand for commodities is unprecedented, which will keep prices high. Plus, most investors don't realize that gold's been rising for six years, gaining about 200%, and once this becomes more obvious, it'll unleash a flood of new demand. Central banks are now also selling less gold.


An intermediate rise we call C started on January 5, which means it's been underway for about three months.

C rises tend to be the best, strongest rise in a bull market when gold reaches new bull market highs. Gold is currently at a nine month high and it has a good chance of testing and surpassing the May highs. For now, if gold can rise and stay clearly above $690, then $722 will become an easy target. Gold would be impressive above this level as it would reconfirm that a very strong bull market is underway.

Apr 16, 2007
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

mama mia
19.04.2007, 08:04
DIE ZEIT (1974)

Hat die Goldhausse ihren Höhepunkt erreicht?


Die langjährigen Goldspekulanten sehen sich in diesen Tagen bestätigt. Der Goldpreis erreichte Höhen, die bislang niemand für möglich gehalten hatte. Gold war die beste Vermögensanlage der letzten Jahre. Es übertrifft sogar die Gewinne, die bisher in der Immobilienspekulation realisiert wurden.

Vom heutigen Preis aus betrachtet wird der Kilo-Barren Gold im Zehn-Jahresvergleich von keiner anderen Vermögensanlage geschlagen. Wer Ende 1963 einen Kilo-Barren zum Preis von 4850 Mark erwarb, kann ihn jetzt zum Preis von etwa 15 000 Mark verkaufen. Sicherlich, Gold bringt keine Zinsen und seine Aufbewahrung kostet Geld. Aber was macht das, wenn sich der Goldpreis innerhalb eines Jahrzehnts mehr als verdreifacht hat.

Auf die Goldhausse haben die Barrenbesitzer lange warten müssen. 1972 gab es schon einmal einen plötzlichen Preisanstieg. Damals kletterte der Kilo-Barren (einschl. Mehrwertsteuer) auf 8103 Mark, zum Jahresende war er aber schon wieder auf 7548 Mark zurückgefallen. Wird es auch jetzt wieder einen Rückschlag geben? Ist es noch sinnvoll, auf den in voller Fahrt befindlichen Gold-Zug aufzuspringen?

Die Goldpreisschwankungen der letzten Tage signalisieren Gefahr. Weniger von der Nachfrage als von der Angebots-Seite her. Denn noch immer stehen an den Schaltern der Banken Leute Schlange, um Gold und Goldmünzen zu kaufen. Einige Kreditinstitute melden Lieferfristen. Und auch international gibt es ein anhaltendes Interesse für Gold. Vermutlich wechseln die Ölförderländer einen Teil ihrer aus dem Rohölverkauf stammenden Dollar sofort in Gold um. Diese Anlage erscheint ihnen sicherer als Guthaben in Dollar oder anderen Währungen.

Diese Nachfrage sowie die Goldhortungskäufe, die nicht nur in der Bundesrepublik, sondern auch in anderen europäischen Ländern zu beobachten sind, treffen auf einen bisher gerade ausbalancierten Markt. Die Goldproduktion war in den letzten Jahren tendenziell leicht rückläufig. Die Gewinnungskosten wurden durch den lange Zeit künstlich niedrig gehaltenen Goldpreis nicht gedeckt. Und jetzt haben die goldfördernden Länder kein Interesse daran, die Hausse in Gold frühzeitig zum Erliegen zu bringen. Die führenden Goldförderländer - soweit sie über Vorräte verfügen - verhalten sich ähnlich wie die Ölländer. Sie streben einen Goldpreis an, der sich auch über längere Zeit auf dem gegenwärtig hohen Niveau halten läßt.

Gefahr kann dem Goldpreis allerdings durch die nationalen Notenbanken drohen. Sie verfügen, wie kürzlich Johannes Tüngeler, Mitglied des Direktoriums der Deutschen Bundesbank und dort für den Goldhandel verantwortlich, in einem der Hannoverschen Allgemeinen gegebenen Interview vorrechnete, über einen Goldbestand - berechnet zum gegenwärtigen freien Goldpreis - im Wert von etwa 190 Milliarden Dollar. Die Notenbanken wären bei einem koordinierter. Verhalten durchaus in der Lage, auf die Preisgestaltung am Goldmarkt durch massive Verkäufe Einfluß zu nehmen.

Aber wie wollen sie das? Bisher spricht nichts dafür. Für die Bundesbank hat Staatssekretär Karl-Otto Pöhl vom Bundesfinanzministerium lakonisch erklärt: "Die Bundesbank denkt nicht daran, Gold zu verkaufen. Dazu besteht keine Notwendigkeit." Und tatsächlich hat die Bundesrepublik keinen Anlaß, ihren Goldbestand zu verringern; denn noch sind wir in der Lage, meine verehrten Leser, unsere Auslandsverpflichtungen aus den Devisenbeständen abzudecken. Der Verkauf von Gold wäre nur dann sinnvoll, wenn man zu der Meinung käme, der Goldpreis sei zu hoch. Dann würde es sich lohnen, mit Gold einmal Kasse zu machen. Aber derartige spekulative Erwägungen liegen der Bundesbank offenbar fern.

Übrigens: Die Notenbanken Frankreichs und Italiens verfügen im Verhältnis zu ihren Währungsreserven über weitaus mehr Gold als die Bundesbank. Nichts läge also näher, daß diese beiden Länder mit Goldverkäufen den Anfang machten, zumal sie auf dem internationalen Kapitalmarkt einen festen Kreditbedarf zum Ausgleich ihrer Zahlungsbilanzen angemeldet haben. Die Tatsache, daß diese Länder es vorziehen, sich zu verschulden statt ihre Goldbestände zu verringern, deutet doch wohl darauf hin, daß man sowohl in Paris als auch in Rom mit einer Fortsetzung der weltweiten Inflationsbewegung rechnet, in der es eben nützlich ist, Schulden und Gold zu besitzen.

Woher kam bei uns der Run auf das Gold? Einmal sicherlich durch die steigenden Goldpreise selbst. Wie überall, so wird auch hier die Hausse durch die Hausse genährt. Es gibt für Vermögensanlagen keine bessere Werbung als steigende Preise. Aber dies ist natürlich nur eine vordergründige Erklärung. Hinter der Goldhausse in der Bundesrepublik steht in erster Linie die Inflationsfurcht. Auslösendes Moment war die Kapitulation der Bundesregierung vor der Gewerkschaft ÖTV. Wer wochenlang vor zweistelligen Tarifabschlüssen warnt, weil sie zweistellige Inflationsraten im Gefolge haben würden, und dann zweistellige Lohnerhöhungen bewilligt, darf sich über die Reaktion der Bevölkerung nicht be- klagen.

Was soll der deutsche Sparer schließlich noch mit seinem Geld anfangen. Kein Sparkonto bietet Zinsen, die einen Kaufkraftschwundausgleich gewährleisten. Und am Rentenmarkt? Die Renditen sind hier zwar wieder zweistellig geworden. Aber werden sie ausreichen, um die Inflationsrate plus mögliche Kursverluste zu ersetzen? Aktien sind längst keine Alternative mehr. Das läßt sich an den Kursbewegungen der vergangenen 14 Monate mühelos ablesen. Und die Aktienzukunft wird durch die Pläne der Bundesregierung verdüstert, die alle Aktionäre, auch Volksaktionäre und Investment-Sparer, zugunsten einer begrenzten Arbeitnehmerschicht teilenteignen will. Die Verfassungsmäßigkeit dieser Absicht wird zwar allerseits in Zweifel gezogen. So lange jedoch dieser Plan nicht vom Tisch ist, enthalten deutsche Aktien ein Risiko, das die meisten Anleger ab- schreckt.

Im Immobilienbesitz sind ebenfalls hohe Risiken enthalten. Das bekommen jene zu spüren, die jetzt den Versuch machen, Anteile an geschlossenen Fonds zu verkaufen. Wer glaubt, diese Anteile zu dem Preis abstoßen zu können, der ihm von der Fonds-Leitung als "echter Wert" mitgeteilt wird, irrt. Nach meinen Informationen liegen die Verkaufswerte um fast 30 Prozent niedriger als die Schätzwerte.

Wohin soll der Sparer ausweichen? Schließlich sind ausländische Aktien im Augenblick ebenfalls alles andere als reizvoll. Ich meine, daß Gold - wie schon immer - im Rahmen einer sinnvoll gestreuten Kapitalanlage unbedingt seinen Platz haben sollte. Das gilt für Goldbarren, wenn es sich um größere Ersparnisse handelt.

Dabei ist die steuerliche Seite nicht zu übersehen. Goldbarren unterliegen natürlich der Vermögensteuer - falls eine Vermögensteuerpflicht besteht. Da aber Gold keine Zinsen bringt, brauchen sie - im Gegensatz zu den Einkünften aus Wertpapieren - auch nicht versteuert zu werden. Die Differenz zwischen Ein- und Verkaufspreis ist, wenn die Barren zu einem Privatvermögen gehören, steuerfrei. Kein Wunder, wenn immer mehr Leute mit hoher Steuerprogression im Gold ihr Glück suchen.

Die in der Bundesrepublik um Stabilität bemühten Politiker sollten dem Run auf das Gold mit Wohlwollen zusehen. Der Goldkauf bindet Kaufkraft; Gold trägt wegen seiner Zinslosigkeit so lange es nicht wieder veräußert wird, auch nicht unmittelbar zur Einkommensvermehrung bei.

Genau wie bei früheren Gelegenheiten, meine verehrten Leser, wenn an dieser Stelle das Thema aufs Gold kam, so bin ich immer noch der Meinung, daß zu jeder Ersparnisanlage auch Goldmünzen gehören. Sie stellen eine Art Lebensversicherung dar. Es ist doch erst etwas länger als 25 Jahre her, da sich manche deutsche Familie, die ihre Goldmünzen über die Goldablieferungspflicht Hitlers unter Gefahren hinweggerettet hatten, mit ihrer Hilfe über die schweren Nachkriegsjahre hinwegbringen konnte. Damals galt Geld nichts, aber Gold viel. Wer den Kauf von Goldmünzen unter diesem Aspekt sieht, braucht auch heute noch nicht so sehr auf den Preis zu sehen.

Anders natürlich die Goldspekulanten. Für sie, die kurzfristig am Gold verdienen wollen, ist die Zeit schon recht heiß geworden.

(c) DIE ZEIT 1974


mama mia
19.04.2007, 20:23
Gold dips as China growth sparks rate fears
Gold futures fall as much as $10 an ounce; silver drops to a two-week low

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B69b2aa5f-e39c-4a18-a04b-a20057c31fc9%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B69b2aa5f-e39c-4a18-a04b-a20057c31fc9%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:08 PM ET Apr 19, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped $5 an ounce Thursday to close at their lowest level in a week, as news of faster-than-expected growth in China in the first quarter triggered worries that the government will have to take measures to slow down its economy, reducing demand for metals.
Gold for June delivery finished down 0.7% at $688.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a low of $682.50. These are the contract's weakest levels since April 12.
The metals had "a very negative session in Shanghai, where copper closed limit down," said Edward Meir, analyst at Man Financial, in a note to clients.
"Negative sentiment in Shanghai was fueled by talk that the Chinese may once again raise interest rates in light of reports that China's economy grew at a faster-than-forecast 11.1% pace in the first quarter of this year," Meir said.
In Asia overnight, stocks fell sharply Thursday, led lower by China's Shanghai Composite Index, which shed 4.5% on renewed concerns that rapid growth may lead to higher interest rates. See Asia Markets. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/asia-markets-tumble-china-gdp/story.aspx?guid=%7B5125930D%2DE81D%2D4BC6%2D9EAC%2D69002562FE3C%7D)
After the close of trading, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics reported China's gross domestic product grew 11.1% in the first three months of the year, quickening from a 10.4% pace of growth in the final quarter of 2006. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/chinas-economy-expands-torrid-111/story.aspx?guid=%7B3FB3ADBC%2D17B4%2D49D6%2DA3DB%2D689F3DBE4D01%7D)
Looking to oil
Metals traders have "looked to the energy sector for direction today," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients.
Crude-oil futures dropped to a level not seen since April 10 as traders worried about the potential for weaker Chinese energy demand. See Futures Movers (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-hit-china-rate-concerns/story.aspx?guid=%7BAF15DAD1%2DD05C%2D4509%2D8ECF%2D31BF757071A9%7D).
The correction in gold prices Thursday, however, "comes as no great surprise considering the metal's lack of traction above $690," said Moore.
Silver prices also declined to a two-week low of $13.58 an ounce, with the May contract closing down 1.7%, or 24 cents, at $13.735.
"Currencies and oil presented a somewhat nebulous picture and oil retreated under $63 per barrel," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Then, there is the problem (if one can call it that) of China's amazingly hot rate of growth," he said in e-mailed commentary. It has prompted "anxieties once again that the authorities will intervene in some manner to try to curb what could well become overheating."
A nearly 9% decline of the Shanghai index triggered a global markets sell-off in late February, which affected a number of asset classes, including metals. Most markets have since recovered from that sell-off.
European stocks also fell Thursday, following the declines in Asia, and U.S. stocks were headed for losses on Wall Street. See Market Snapshot. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-stocks-rise-shrug-off/story.aspx?guid=%7BA877F544%2D0FB8%2D4168%2D8416%2DBBAA7F10EE34%7D)
"We think that inflationary pressures are rising somewhat in China, and we hence believe that in 2007, the central bank will deliver at least two more hikes and possibly raise the reserve ratio," said Lars Rasmussen, analyst at Denmark's Danske Bank, in a morning note.
"We feel that the Chinese authorities will keep a tight grip on credit/money growth in 2007 compared to the expansion seen earlier."
Rasmussen also said that he expected the Chinese currency, the yuan, to appreciate at least 5% against the dollar.
On the currency markets, the yen climbed across-the-board Thursday, touching its highest level in more than two weeks against the dollar, after a sell-off in Asian stock markets overnight prompted investors to unwind carry traders. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/yen-rises-carry-trade-unwinding/story.aspx?guid=%7B885C44EA%2D5920%2D4B17%2DB65F%2DEC82E078AA9C%7D)
Buy now?

Against this backdrop, the price of gold has climbed more than 150% since early 2001, so it's not surprising that many financial advisers and money managers are adding the yellow metal to their clients' portfolios. But whether that's also the right move for you depends on your taste for adventure. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gold-shines-investors-risky-play/story.aspx?guid=%7BCA9DD1B3%2D2E03%2D47DD%2D8479%2DE168603C15B5%7D)
John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service, believes the current weakness in gold is a "strong" buying opportunity.
"The most important factor that may be the catalyst to push gold higher next week will be the Fed's Beige book report -- this may show stronger business conditions throughout most of the feds reportable districts," he said in e-mailed comments. "That combined with good earning news and positive guidance from the majority of corporations during earnings season so far just might give gold bulls reason to not only hang on.
"Gold could spike sharply higher on evidence of continued strength in the economy from next week's reports and when you combine the fact that global stock prices are at or near multi and all time highs, it certainly will give good reason for inflation watchers to add gold to their portfolios," he explained.
For now, other metals prices were sharply lower, with the exception of platinum, whose July contract continued higher, closing up $2.90 at $1,309.80 an ounce, extending Wednesday's 2% gain. "The metal is being pushed along by anticipatory fever for the platinum-oriented [exchanged-traded fund]," said Nadler.
Sister metal palladium saw its June contract decline $2.80 to end at $380 an ounce.
May copper fell 3.25 cents to close at $3.5865 a pound after losing 1.6% in the previous session.

mama mia
19.04.2007, 20:27
Gold and Silver Market Updates

Clive Maund
Apr 19, 2007


The gradual uptrend of the past 6 weeks has brought gold once again to a critical juncture. This rise has brought it up to the late February high and within $40 of last year's highs at about $730, raising hopes that it may soon break out to a new high.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund041907/1.gif As we can see on the 2-year chart the current situation is rather complex. In mid-January gold broke out from a 3-arc Fan Correction, marking the start of another uptrend and after rising for a while it reacted to successfully test support above the 3rd fanline of the correction. It has since risen again, slowly and steadily, to attain the level of the February high at and above which there is strong resistance, which in itself is grounds for caution. The price has been shepherded higher since the October low by the trendline shown and the 300-day moving average, near which gold has found support throughout the bull market. On the face of it this is a bullish setup that should lead to an upside breakout and another strong uptrend. However, if we look now at the latest COT chart we can see that the warning bells are once again sounding loud and clear - the level of Commercial shorts increased substantially last week and is now at a relatively high level. So it looks like the price is going to fail again at the major resistance above $690 and turn tail and retreat, although this does not mean it has to break down below the important trendline in force from September 2005. The most likely scenario therefore is that gold will go into retreat shortly back towards the trendline currently at about $645, and if so we will want to see the Commercials' short position moderate to prepare the ground for another challenge of the big resistance at and above $690.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund041907/2.gif If the uptrend is broken it will likely lead to a prolongation of the consolidation in force since May last year. The worst case scenario is that a double-top is forming with the highs of last year, but it would take a breakdown below the trendline to provide initial confirmation of that, and if that is followed by a break below the trailing 3rd fanline it would of course constitute a major sell signal.

We have been long up to this point, and without the deterioration revealed by the COT figures would have been prepared to wait to see if gold can break out above last year's highs. Traders long gold here should be aware of this short-term downside risk and profits should be taken in gold stocks that have run up sharply over the past 6 weeks. At this point we are looking for a reaction, but it is not expected to be too serious, and should be followed by another challenge of the strong resistance at and towards last year's highs.


The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund041907/3.gif On the 2-year chart we can see that silver is now rapidly approaching decision time - it must either break above last year's highs soon or break down below the uptrend line shown. Observe that if it does break down here and the strong support in the vicinity of the 200-day and 300-day moving averages holds, the pattern could morph into a rectangular consolidation that leads to an upside breakout later, but should it drop below $12 it will likely plunge rapidly back to the next key support zone in the $10 area. Such a development would be expected to at least result in the price "retiring" into a much more drawn out consolidation pattern, and at worst it would signify the completion of a top area.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund041907/4.gif Traders can remain long here for a possible upside breakout, but should bail immediately if it breaks below the trendline shown, as this may lead to a plunge, a routine event with silver, as it tends to go down a lot faster than it goes up. If the support in the $12.20 - $12.50 area holds, positions can be re-entered with a stop below $12.

Apr 16, 2007
Clive Maund
Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Clive+Maund)
email: support@clivemaund.com
website: www.clivemaund.com (http://www.clivemaund.com/)

mama mia
19.04.2007, 20:48
...ooops da war ich auf dem falschen Dampfer :rolleyes aber die PMs sind auch auf dem falschen Dampfer heute :mad

mama mia
19.04.2007, 21:11
...hmmm mist :schwitz

mama mia
20.04.2007, 09:31
Gold in recent days has flirted with resistance above $690, currently having retraced from the initial attempts at a breakout higher.

From time to time, so as not to get suckered into a wrong analysis or wave count of a market based on relying too much on ongoing 'updated' analysis. I like to take a fresh chart of a market, in this case of Gold, and see what actually stands out clearly at this point in time, a Fresh view so to speak.

What is the 'Fresh' current chart of Gold telling us, especially terms elliott wave analysis ?


A. The first thing that stands out is that the $733 peak in May 2006 marked a significant peak, a 5th wave peak. So I can mark that peak as a 5 on the chart.

B. The subsquent price action resembles a correction, and in elliott wave terms, a correction is comprised of 3 waves, A, B, C. Again this is perfectly clear on the chart. And thus I denote ABC. So far this is going well. Especially when I note that C is higher than B, which is a sign of strength !

C. Now this part of the chart brings us into the present. What do you see ? I see 4 clear waves, 1, 2, 3,4. So that count is entered onto the Gold chart.

D. The Present ! - What follows a 4 is a 5, which implies that the current wave up is a 5th wave. Now this is where things get a little tricky. Gold has breached the Peak of Wave 3, so it could make a weak 5th peak anytime soon. This would be taken as very weak price action. And imply a larger correction is expected, much larger than which usually follows minor wave 5 counts. Therefore Gold must continue higher virtually immediately to and beyond 733 BEFORE correcting.

So taking a fresh look at gold, has resulted with a warning to perma gold bugs, that if Gold does not manage to extend the size of the current 5th wave rally to beyond 733, then the ensuring correction is likely to be pretty severe.

So how would one actually trade this market ?

1. LONG - With a tight stop, i.e. under the last weeks low, 675 and rising under each previous weeks low going forward.

2. SHORT - On a reversal trigger, one of the best triggers are off of SAR's (Stop and Reverse), therefore a break of the Long stop at 675, with a stop over the high, currently 696.

For expert analysis of elliott wave counts on a range of financial markets, make sure to take advantage of Free Access (http://www.elliottwave.com/wave/marketoracle) to Elliott Wave Internationals Financial Forecasts between 18th April 07 and 25th April 07.

By Nadeem Walayat
(c) MarketOracle.co.uk (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/)2007 - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article807.html

mama mia
20.04.2007, 14:47
Gold, Silver Advance as Dollar's Fall Boosts Investment Demand
By Danielle Rossingh and Jesse Riseborough

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver climbed as the dollar headed for its fourth consecutive weekly decline against the euro, spurring investors to buy the precious metals as an alternative investment to U.S. stocks and bonds.

The European currency rose to a 27-month high against the dollar after European Central bank policy maker Axel Weber said the bank can't signal it's finished raising interest rates yet because of the ``extremely positive'' outlook for the euro- region economy, Handelsblatt reported today, citing an interview. Gold generally moves counter to the dollar.

``The current bearish sentiment towards the dollar may encourage diversification away from the greenback,'' James Moore, a precious-metals analyst with TheBullionDesk.com, said in an e-mailed note.

Gold for immediate delivery in London rose $3.10, or 0.5 percent, to $686.05 an ounce at 10:06 a.m. local time. The metal has advanced 0.1 percent this week. Silver for immediate delivery gained 12.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $13.805 an ounce.

The dollar was at $1.3605 versus the euro, from $1.3612 late yesterday in New York. The euro was further buoyed by comments from Luxembourg Prime and Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker who said there was ``no reason for panic'' about the current strength of the currency.

``Gold seems to be benefiting from the weakness in the U.S. dollar and it has been pushed around by currency movements in recent times,'' said David Moore, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``Fundamentally, there is evidence that investors are long gold and that does mean it can be vulnerable to occasional pullbacks.''

Platinum, Palladium Climb

Gold may rise to $750 an ounce by the end of the year because of pressure on Asian countries to increase the value of their currencies against the dollar, according to Dundee Wealth Management Co.

``Pressure is beginning to mount more dramatically on the dollar to go down,'' Martin Murenbeeld, Dundee's chief economist, said in an interview yesterday at the European Gold Forum in Zurich. ``I am a little more positive on gold.''

Also in London, platinum climbed $18.50, or 1.4 percent, to $1,315.50 an ounce while palladium rose $4, or 1.1 percent, to $381 an ounce.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net ; Danielle Rossingh in London at drossingh@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 20, 2007 05:10 EDT - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a_2Nw_shhUrQ&refer=commodities

mama mia
21.04.2007, 19:30

by Jim Willie CB
home: Golden Jackass website (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html)
April 21st, 2007
Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.

The focus on gold and the USDollar alone lacks a crucial factor in maintaining the world currency reserve on its fragile pedestal. The PetroDollar is a term used to describe the close relationship between the USDollar and the crude oil export business dominated by Saudi Arabia, manifested in the superstructure of the global banking system. So one could say the oil world provides the pool from which the US$ exchange rate valuation is applied and enforced. The gold community pays far too little attention to crude oil factors in my opinion, but Adam Hamilton does indeed. Gold investors love to point to Iran war tensions as a factor to lift the gold price, but they might overlook how the associated earthquakes in banking shift the very ground under the world currency reserve.

Iran has begun to sell its oil in euro currency transactions, already to China, and next to Japan. The gold market should rejoice, when they are actually not paying attention to this grand development. Petro sales outside the US$ realm represent the first of several tectonic shifts in global banking. Direct impact is assured to gold, once the certain changes are realized to bank systems. Imagine Japan changing the emphasis of their entire FOREX reserves management because they purchase a large block of crude oil from Iran, and pay in euros. How much more Persian Gulf oil will China purchase? How much will their future bills be due in euro terms? This article contains a capsule summary taken from the energy section of the April Hat Trick Letter, with a finale based in dark humor.

As a preface, the Gulf Arab currency talks ended with little progress in Medina Saudi Arabia. The meeting was to work toward a monetary union plan by its deadline of 2010. Governor of the United Arab Emirates central bank Al-Suweidi cast doubt in January that the six key Persian Gulf oil producers could hammer out any currency exchange rate regime as preparation for a single currency. The group wishes to clinch a deal like what the European Union has in place. My gut says such a unified currency would help defend the USDollar and its unofficial oil standard, by means of a single controllable device. The USGovt and bankers might require this device in order to exert strong influence on the increasingly independent sheikdoms scrambling to prevent massive losses in the foreign reserves.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/willie/willie042107a.gif Great strain has come when Persian Gulf nations, friendly sheikdoms, decide to diversify their vast FOREX holdings away from US$-based securities. When Qatar last autumn announced some minor diversification of their national FOREX savings account, the US Military ordered a pullout of several thousand troops. There lies evidence of a connection, the quid pro quo in the protection game to fortify the sheiks in power, as they each sit atop national treasures. When South Korea in 2005 twice suggested similar diversification of their FOREX account, suddenly US Military exercises were conducted off their shore, visible from the office buildings. Anyone who misses the linkage between foreign reserves held in US$-based securities and US Military support for the global banking system is at best in need of broader exposure, and at worst ignorant, compromised, or deceived. The USDollar is backed by many forces and factors, including a powerful military on an increasing basis. For four years running, the military has had a prominent presence in the center of the Middle East, inside Iraq.

The history of the PetroDollar could be described as a syndicate contract between the United States and Saudi Arabia to subsidize the USDollar, to prop up the Western banking system, to enable the Arab royals (sheiks & emirs) to continue to claim their national treasures as their private property. Without the contract, the United States would not be able to perpetuate the privilege abused by the USGovt and Wall Street, whereby money is printed at will, private entities benefit routinely, trillion dollar budgets are hammered out, and no process exists either for foreign participation or approval. Bear in mind that the Saudi economy has among the highest national debt per capita among prominent nations, and has a pathetic per capita income among its citizens. The Saudi royals have cornered their national treasure, invested broadly across the world in private accounts, in a manner which seems totally beyond simple reproach.

The USGovt requirse three extremely important concessions from the Saudi Royal family. They stand as cornerstones to the PetroDollar system (if not defacto standard):

The Saudis must honor oil sales only in US$ transactions from their vast production fields across the kingdom.
They must recycle their vast ill-gotten wealth (due to its private nature) in New York and London banks, so as to support the US$-based banking system, and thus enable the funding of vast loan portfolios for Western usage.
They must purchase vast military weaponry in order to secure their grip of power and to keep stability in the hostile Persian Gulf region.
An aside, to drive home the point of corruption among Saudi royal families. The dirty little secret in Saudi business life is what is called 'appropriation' among the citizens. The royals are attempting to halt the practice, but that is like Wall Street attempting to eliminate insider information used for profitable gain. Royal underlings extort independent business owners into selling their businesses for 10% of value, under threat of imprisonment on trumped up charges like tax evasion, sexual misconduct, or other serious crimes.

The basis of the PetroDollar contract is that the Saudis keep firm its foundation, that being a strong link between the USDollar and oil sales. A better description is that OPEC members, led in particular by the Saudis, have subsidized the USDollar since 1971 when Nixon broke the Bretton Woods Accord for the gold backed USDollar. That is why in my work, the name PetroDollar Standard has been used, despite the lack of any formal standard. It is a de facto standard. Such a link between oil and US$ serves as a fait accompli for entire national banking systems being US$-based in their foundations. The PetroDollar basis for banking is not well understood nor publicized. That is because its vulnerability is so huge, and US institutions take it for granted. Foreign nations discuss the concept, while US circles do not.

If the PetroDollar prop were to be removed, entire national banking systems like the Japanese or Korean or German would shift, which would come as a delivered shock wave to the USTreasury Bond complex. The USTBond system is the active working manifestation of the USDollar, the world reserve currency. Large blocks of FOREX reserves held in US$-based securities would undergo change if the system changed, all harmful to the USDollar. Nowhere has the vulnerable condition of the PetroDollar been more pronounced than in the year 2000 when Saddam Hussein demanded payment for oil in euro currency. Probably near the top in reasons why Iraq was annexed and its oil reserves commandeered, his euro-based oil sales remain near the bottom in stated reasons in the subservient US press & media, if mentioned at all. That issue has returned to the forefront, with Iran.

Iran has, with some measure of hesitation if not trepidation, traveled down the same path as Saddam. Back in the summer of 2005, Tehran leaders indicated their intention to create an Iranian Oil Exchange by September of that same year on the Isle of Kish. For various reasons, they delayed. Back then my sources informed me that fear of connection with European and London banks was a deep concern. Once integrated, the Western banks could inflict damage by formal bank seizures or blockage in some manner. Tehran officials also were fearful of computer viruses injected by probing Westerners. Iranian leaders are not so much kooks as thieves, who like their Saudi counterparts, raid their national treasures. In Tehran the practice is more akin to 'skimming' from operations whereas in Riyadh it is outright plunder of wealth. http://www.321energy.com/editorials/willie/willie042107b.gif On March 28-th, The International Herald Tribune provided an update on Iranian oil finances, with of course little or no coverage inside the US press. To do so would have put forth a secondary motive for pressure aimed at Iran by the United States. Their national affairs have been reported frequently, mainly nuclear in nature. Little focus has been given to tangents aligned with the oil business and banking systems tied to the PetroDollar itself. The IHT piece said "'More than 50% of Iran's oil income is paid in other currencies. We are reducing the dollar share and asking clients to pay in other currencies,' Sheibany said. Sheibany said that almost all of Iran's European clients and some of its Asian customers have accepted making payments in non-dollar currencies." This is the first public admission, or boasting, made by an Iranian official on non-US$ oil sales. This is highly significant, and could be construed as a realistic cause for war by those who choose to think without the usage of red state prisms or blue state prisms.

Iranian oil sales attack the fragile global banking system extended from the Western dominated financial world. There are only two important props to the United States Govt and Economy, according to William Engdahl: ownership of the US$ world reserve currency, and command of the US Military. This was conveyed at the Munich Gold conference last November in a brief private conversation. He is a brilliant man who has specialized in the political, financial, and military aspects of the oil wars, with particular emphasis on the United States versus Russia. See his website which concerns itself with Geopolitics & Geoeconomics (click here). (http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/)

Japan and China have been pushed into a corner by Iran. Of course, neither nation wishes to anger the United States. The precedent is important for payment in oil in euro transactions, much like a crack in the dike. If Chinese leaders were to push for all their oil imports to be purchased in euro terms, then the USGovt and its USDollar and its USTBonds have a big problem indeed. Japan continues to pay for oil sales from Iran in USDollars. Tokyo leaders are dragging their feet. Tehran leaders want euros for their oil sales, but to date do not demand euros, that is clear. Nippon Oil Corp, a major Japanese refiner, along with other purchasers from Japan, received 'inquiries' from Iran to pay for oil sales in euros. It seems like Tehran wants Japanese firms to 'volunteer' to pay in euros.

To further complicate the matter, the USGovt has pressured Japan not to purchase Iranian oil. The cited reason was 'doing business with terrorist states' or something to that effect. Consequently, more Iranian oil has been purchased by China and South Korea. In the process Japan has been left vulnerable. Watch both Japan and China in this tug of war, the former subservient, the latter unruly. Details on these several relevant points are provided in the April report.

Something is worth stressing related to the Shanghai Coop Org cited at the end of the outlined points. The SCO has the potential muscle of OPEC for new energy supply but also the potential military power of NATO on the security side. Obstructing, undermining, and interfering with the SCO formation and cooperation might be an integral motive for the USGovt and US Military as it engages Iran on its embryonic nuclear program. SCO is a very big problem, also never mentioned in the US press.

Mixed into the dangerous bubbling cauldron is Israel, which has been openly threatened by Iran's leader Ahmadinejad (aka My Dinner Jacket) in a manner to whip up emotion regularly. Mullahs are bad business men, who do not think or plan beyond the next few months, hence do not invest prudently in future oil production. Their refinery business leaks enormous amounts of oil and end product, as much as Iranian leaders leak blather as though addressed to school pep rallies.

This is a cat & mouse game, but a deadly one. A crack in the PetroDollar foundation coincides with US Military pressure put upon Iran for its 'nuclear ambitions' when the true motive might be to avert fracture of the PetroDollar system. This is otherwise known as a protection racket coming unglued (see next section).

What is described on the periphery of the PetroDollar foundation is a protection racket. Financial support is provided, or money is outright extracted, from one wealth center or source (here the Saudis with USTBond support), in return for prevention of their ouster from corrupt rule and access to a national treasure. Check out my past public article "PetroDollar & Protection Racket" (click here) (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie040505.html) from April 2005, which is still highly relevant today. Since the time of that written article, Norway has moved to sell oil in euro transactions in the Brent Crude market. The PetroDollar superstructure, so labeled since it includes not only transactions but also banking systems, is as shaky and weak now as the US Economy and banking system is vulnerable to the housing and mortgage crisis underway. That is not a coincidence in my view. This article has resulted in more reader comments and kudos from fellow analysts than any other article penned by me, bar none. It hit a nerve. Here, two years late, the PetroDollar factor serves as the crosshairs for weapons aimed. The target is not Iraq but rather Iran. In fact the forces described are more relevant today than when written, since the Iraq War is going so badly, military forces are stretched fatigued recycled, more questions arise on accurate intelligence information (falsified or politically steered), and another war is seen as an additional morass and larger disaster potentially.

Taken as excerpts from the 2005 article, several quoted points made are:

What we have is a system for purchasing minerals and resources, totally bound in US$ denomination pricing and transaction settlements. The most visible element is energy trade, whose supplies clearly make for the largest bill payments.
The PetroDollar system is the practical commercial flipside, the visible evidence to the USDollar as world currency reserve in central banks. The financial effect is for banking systems across the globe to accumulate reserves in US$-based assets. What began as a checking account for oil payments has morphed into a gigantic bloated beast of a dangerous financial pyramid whose foundation has corroded and weakened as the USDollar bear market progresses.
The EuroDollar was created for many purposes. One was to facilitate payment for energy supplies in US$ terms, without the necessary step to convert trade surpluses back to DeutscheMarks or Swiss francs or British pound sterling. A EuroDollar is a US$ held in European banks, not converted to local currency units, and serves as a buttress to support the PetroDollar system.
The world is 'obliged' to sop up and purchase all the debts we generate, whether they approve or not of our policies, behavior, tendency, or justification for military actions. Almost without enforced discipline, the US system has evolved with unchecked abuse on a massive scale.
US federal debt, mortgage debt, and indirectly household debt are all absorbed by Asia. Exporters are somewhat bound to buy our US Treasury debt in order to continue selling in our market. Foreign central banks have few alternatives to sock away $20 to $30 billion per month, each month, every month.
Asia feels obliged to continue, in order to keep their industries and work force busy (avoid unemployment), and to prevent their banking systems from imploding. They cannot abandon support for the USDollar, and demonstrate that support with frequent central bank interventions.
The PetroDollar system is under new attack. Russia and fringe nations of OPEC are responsible for dissension. Their motive is self-preservation. Rather, they desire a stable or rising currency. If a nation can manage to trade a host of commodities (like oil, natural gas, copper, iron, cotton, coffee) in euro denomination, that national economy would be far less subject to the distress of systemic rising prices.
The Iraq War [had] numerous grounds for its justification, surely the weapons of mass destruction among them (although not taken seriously by me here). Also, stemming the sale of Iraqi crude oil in euro denomination was another motive, which in my view was far more important even in March 2003, just as important two years later now. The PetroDollar system is that important to defend.
OPEC refuses to confront the USA, since it owns no military and is quite dependent upon the USA for its protection. They sell us oil; we protect their leadership (see Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and Qatar).
The new Shanghai Cooperative Group represents a potential supply network which will have member nations of China, India, Russia, former Soviet Republics, and Iran as its core. Energy (crude oil & natural gas), industrial metals, and more are to be bought and sold by this new network, outside OPEC and its gaggle of disunity and diverse puppet strings held by Washington DC. The COOP is a direct answer to the corrupted OPEC cartel, which seems overly influenced by US leaders.
Pricing oil in euros helps nations to reduce domestic price inflation within their own economies, and to add to incoming revenue from oil sales. Removal of the PetroDollar system [would] have a magnificent effect on the crude oil price or the USDollar exchange rate or US Treasury yields. An effect on currencys and bonds as a secondary effect. Then we might see a gold effect. An acceleration down with USDollar could trigger a world bank crisis.
The stability of the PetroDollar depends heavily on keeping the confidence of the Persian Gulf oil producers. JPMorgan activities emanating from the Bank of Baghdad cannot be dismissed. Effectively, after JPMorgan was chosen to run the Iraqi Central Bank, they began issuing letters of credit using Iraqi oil assets to collateralize the loans. What exactly is this powerful bank and derivative book (mis)manager doing with the entrusted Letters of Credit on payments for Iraqi oil? When my writing expressed distrust of US Administrators and their integrity in managing the Iraqi oil, the response was hate email. My distrust was justified. The advent of a large new phenomenon in crude oil futures contracts coincides with the arrival of JPM and the US presence in Iraq. See the data for evidence and oily fingerprints. Details are provided in the April report, where some fine sleuth detective work by Rob Kirby is cited.

When explaining the crude oil price, politics and war account for most variation, not economics bound by supply & demand. It might be

the prospects of Iran War, or the military barrage probe on Beirut in summer 2006
the grand scale of US Military sale of crude oil & diesel in late summer 2006
the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index adjustment of the gasoline weight just three months before the US Midterm Elections
the State of the (dis)Union message related to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
the total relaxation of pressure on Iran during those same Midterm Elections
the latest pressure on Iran.
An analysis is given. The greatest dynamics for the crude oil price changes emanate from decisions by the White House, the Pentagon, and offices at JPMorgan & Goldman Sachs. Arguments to the contrary seem very secondary and immaterial, much like noise.

HATS OFF Lastly, hats off to Peter Schiff during a CNBC interview opposite clownish Ned Reilly on Monday afternoon. It was worth a loud laugh and a captured quote by Peter. The US stock markets are hitting new highs in true Weimar fashion. Pundits and anchors suspect something has gone awry, since the European euro and British sterling currency are pounding away at new highs. The US S&P500 index is not doing well at all in euro and sterling terms over the last 3 or 4 years. Peter made a point that the higher stock prices are offset by a weaker US$ exchange rate and diminished purchase power within the USEconomy. That has been precisely my point for a couple years also. The S&P has maintained constant value, even if higher price. Schiff delivered a quote worth saving on the office wall. Pardon me if not word for word, as I was busy making myself an egg omelet, with onions and red peppers and olives and cheese. My prices for food have dropped by 30% since arrival in Costa Rica. Oh yes, fresh luscious cantaloupes for 80 cents, or a half dozen bananas for 20 cents. Pura Vida! Peter said:

"The Dow [and US stocks generally] cannot even compete in price with a carton of eggs in the United States, which is up 30% just last year."

The challenge for the Dept of Treasury and US Federal Reserve is that in order to defend the USDollar, they must keep numerous fingers well placed in the dikes for the gold market, the oil market, the housing & mortgage market, the China trade war, the hedge fund mushroom, the credit derivative market, and the foreign central bank revolt. The USTreasury market is surrounded by several bands of hostile barbarians. The latest bizarre news has that Freddie Mac will purchase $20 billion in acidic bonds. Do taxpayers get stuck with the bill? Do their bond investors bear the risk? The watch word is desperation. USGOVT OFFICIALS DON'T GOT ENOUGH FINGERS TO PLUG THE DIKES. There are simply too many digits to the debt and money growth (pun intended)!!! THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

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April 21st, 2007
Jim Willie CB

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/willie/hats2.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
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mama mia
23.04.2007, 08:36
...sehe leider kein Datum zu diesem Bericht :rolleyes
The Great Silver Mystery (...and the greatest secret of all time!)
Bix Weir

Dear Silver Enthusiast...

Let me start off by saying that what I am going to postulate should not in any way be considered fact...because I am not in possession of proof. I am merely postulating on where all the mystery silver comes from to be sold on the physical silver market. Since the early 2000's almost every serious silver analyst has been pounding the table that there is no above ground silver available and it is the "buy of a lifetime". But at the same time, silver prices never seem to live up to their expectation. Of course, anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that the COMEX and LME silver markets are rigged by a powerful cabal of bankers (and others) that seem to be above the law (or more likely, in collusion with the law), but at the end of the day physical silver must be delivered for industrial applications and investors taking possession. So where does it all come from? ....I think I may have stumbled upon the answer!

After a grueling day of watching another COMEX silver rigging operation in late December, I turned on the History Channel for some mindless entertainment. The program that was running was called "Lost Worlds - Secret Cities of the A-Bomb" (you can buy it here http://store.aetv.com/html/product/index.jhtml?id=76496). It was an investigative piece on the Manhattan Project focusing on the Top Secret city that was built in Oakridge, TN and a facility called Y-12. The program was interesting to me, but one part specifically made me jump up out of my seat and run to my computer to find out what it was all about.

During WWII, in order for the scientists to enrich enough Uranium for the A-bomb they had to make the largest electro magnet ever built. It would be called a Calutron and according to the narrator, they needed many tons of copper wiring which they claim was not available at the time due to war shortages. Instead of copper they went to the US Treasury and "borrowed" 14,700 TONS OF SILVER. (...of course silver is a much better conductor of electricity than copper, so the copper shortage story was likely intentionally planted to conceal the necessity of silver). 14,700 tons of silver is about 470,000,000 ounces that were taken from the US vaults, made into silver wire and "busbars", and installed into the greatest secret project in the history of the world. Let's call that "deep storage silver" because, theoretically, the calutrons could be removed and the silver melted back into bars. As a matter of fact, according to the program and government statements, that is what was done in 1954.



It is interesting to note that the US Treasury also announced a silver purchase program with Mexico in 1941 the same time the silver was being transferred out of the Treasury to be used for Y-12.


Here is a picture of the silver magnets being assembled and installed back in 1941:


Now here is a picture of their enclosures taken with a low quality digital camera (likely mid 1990's):


The government claimed back in the 1950's that there was a new gaseous way to enrich plutonium, which there was, and the Calutrons were not needed. But wait! There are many articles on the internet showing that the Calutrons were in full operation until 1993, then shut down for 3 years and restarted in 1995. In a March 1999 news release Oakridge Laboratories said they got an order from the DOE to finally "retire" the calutrons.

"ORNL has received instructions from DOE to shut the devices down permanently. Up until about a year ago, the calutrons were producing stable isotopes after resuming operations in 1995 following a three-year shutdown."


The "official" line is that the silver was returned to the Treasury in 1954, but I see no reason for that to occur. The Treasury knew where the silver was and Y-12 was the most important manufacturing facility in human history to that point. This was classic disinformation on the part of the Treasury/Bankers. No way they would risk the Calutrons not working so they never sent the silver back, and Y-12 was operational until the mid-1990's when other priorities developed in the silver market.

There were 32 Calutrons with 8 of them used for plutonium processing. There was also silver used in the "busbars" for Y-12. I'm no nuclear scientist but lets assume that the Calutrons used about 14,000,000 oz each and the rest was used in the track. This is a stretch but my take is they shut down the 24 non-plutonium Calutrons in the 1993 "stand-down" and sent the silver back to Treasury to be used to suppress the price of silver. This coincides with the additional 10,000 tons of silver shipments to the UK from 1995-1998.


Then, with the Buffet purchase and silver scare in 1998, they went back for the remaining 150M oz of silver and announced the complete shut down of the facility.


Interestingly enough,Y-12 was brought back into operation in 2005:

"The facility was not part of the September 1994 stand-down in which virtually all operations at Y-12 were halted because of safety concerns raised by the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board."


My Conclusions:

1) The Manhattan Project needed and received 470,000,000 ozs of silver for the Calutrons in 1941.

2) There was no reason to "give back" the silver in 1954 because it would just sit in a vault and the enriched uranium was the most important item in the world to the new nuclear super power. According to the program, enriched uranium was very difficult to mass produce and the calutrons were the best at it.

3) The US could retrieve the silver when it was needed it by dismantling the calutrons.

4) The calutrons ran for 50 years without any technological obsolescence. http://www.ornl.gov/info/reporter/no1/calutron.htm

5) In the 1990's something changed such that the US had to a) shutdown the calutrons for three years b) bring them back on line for a few years c) then completely dismantle them by order of the DOE.

6) From1995-1998 approximately 10,000 additional tons of US silver was exported to the UK to suppress the physical silver market on the LME.

7) The mid 1990's corresponds directly with the "strong dollar policy" (fixing of the commodity markets by Greenspan, Clinton, Rubin etc.)



I believe 470,000,000ozs. of silver that was being used as an essential secret component of the Manhattan Project magnets to enrich uranium have been removed to assist in the price suppression of silver. I also believe that the significance of this occurrence can not be underestimated because it means the powers that control the rigging of the silver market were so desperate for physical metal in the 1990's that a strategic military installation had to be dismantled to retrieve this "deep storage" silver. I contend that over the past 10-12 years this silver was taken off the market by industrial and investment users such that the silver ETF had to be established (likely using the silver shanghaied from Buffett to save General Re) in order to lease additional paper and divert huge flows of institutional money into a black hole of non-backed paper silver (SLV). http://www.dollarcollapse.com/iNP/view.asp?ID=52

So where does that leave us?...Well, if 10,000 tons or 320m oz were needed from 1995-2001 and then add to that the additional 150M oz from 2001-2006 we're looking at a burn rate of additional physical of 40m-50m oz per year on average. This is not scientific of course, and it is escalating at a rapid pace because of the investor information on silver spreading.

On October 10, 2006, right before their inventory jumped 20M oz in one day in December, the iShares Silver ETF filed a new (revised) prospectus REMOVING the world "Bullion" from all the references to "Silver Bullion".



I would postulate that 100moz the silver ETF held was leased out and consumed in a matter of 7 months or 15moz/mo, and at that rate the remaining 20m oz should have been gone by February and the silver price suppression game is running on paper fumes.

Those are my speculations and although I have no idea if I am right, it sure can explain where all the "mystery silver" came from over the past 10 years.

Bix Weir is a self proclaimed Foot Soldier in the GATA Army


mama mia
23.04.2007, 14:42
The Wallace Street Journal

By David Bond, Editor

The Silver Valley Mining Journal

Zurich Redux, & A Gold Price Forecast

Zurich – Martin Murenbeeld, who hangs his hat in Victoria, B.C. and pens prognostications for Dundee, is a bit like a Swiss train. If by one's watch the Swiss train is a bit late, then you had better take your Patek Philippe into the jeweler for a tune-up, because Swiss trains are never late and they are never early. Neither is Dr. Murenbeeld.

Well, Martin was a tad apologetic in Zurich last week for having missed the 2006 gold price when he called it in March of 2005 by, um, 23 cents, give or take a tuppence, at $604. What lies ahead?: Try a 2007 average price of $680, a year-end closer of $730, and a 2008 average price of $765 – give or take a half-penny or so.

We pestered Murenbeeld after his screed at the Baur au Lac for a silver price forecast, but he does not specialize in the poor man's gold: “Silver will do whatever gold does, but with a much higher Beta factor,” he told us, meaning that silver's bungee cords are extremely taught (aren't they always?) and the whiplash is gonna getcha.

Any more, forecasting the gold (or silver, or platinum or palladium or rhodium) price is just a polite way of stepping around the fact that the United Snakes Dollar, i.e. the Federal Reserve Note and whatever other Monopoly crap passes for US money these days, is just a pile of paper, increasingly suspect in an increasingly savvy world economy. “Trust us” just does not cut it any more when that phrase issues forth from the Treasury or Helicopter Ben. The world would rather have what we refuse anymore to produce: oil, gas, metals, concrete, or competent foreign policy, than our damned promissory interest-bearing dollar notes.

So let's get technical. Here is what Murenbeeld said:

“Current account surpluses held in American dollars by oil-producing nations, an explosion of US dollar reserves in Asia and elsewhere, and a continued softening of the dollar all point to a higher average gold price in 2007 and 2008. The US dollar is over-valued by between 15% and 35%, and it has further to fall. At $2.7 trillion, Asian dollar reserves are excessive. OPEC nations as well have dollar surpluses. Over the long term, gold is still very cheap in terms of dollars and in terms of oil. You could see a $300 to $400 blow-out (above current prices) in gold in the next few years.”

Murenbeeld said a better predictor of gold price bull markets than the oil-to-gold ratio is the quantity of US dollars held in surplus by oil producers. OPEC's current account surplus 3 years ago surpassed the $100-billion level that helped trigger the 1980 gold-price run-up and is forecast to reach $300-billion this year.

Were Asia to follow the European ratio of gold to reserves, Murenbeeld said, Japan would need to purchase 7,200 tonnes of gold and China, 9,100 tonnes – 4,000 tonnes more than now held by all signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. “Obviously, that's not going to happen in my lifetime, but it might not be unreasonable to expect Asian purchases of 500 tonnes per annum,” he said. New factors not present in previous gold bull markets include exchange-traded funds, trading in gold as a “paper asset class” and deregulation of gold ownership and sales in China.

“The shortest previous up-cycle in gold was 10 years, between 1970 and 1980, and we are in just the sixth year of this bull market,” he said. Bull markets in commodities typically see one counter-cyclical year in their midst, and that hasn't happened yet in this market, he said.

Any number of geopolitical factors could trigger a blow-out in metals prices. What would happen if Bush went back on the wagon, f'rinstance? Or fell off?

We would add more quotes, but you already have the picture and already are suicidal, having only that wallet full of Brownspan and Helicopter Ben notes and no physical metal at hand, yes? And we do not wish to contribute to your demise and to a lower hit-count on our website. Must we, even to the faithful, repeat this? Gold's price is constant. It is fixed in the cosmos. It is only the value of the United Snakes Fednote, in terms of gold, that goes up and down. America's Founding Fathers had a stellar idea: fix the US dollar in terms of a weight of silver or gold. But that grand notion died with Andrew Jackson, and the sleazeball bankers have had the run of this place ever since.

What Martin Murenbeeld is politely trying to say is this: That the ounce of gold you could buy for $604 last year is going to cost you $765 next year. There is nothing about this ounce of gold (or silver) that has changed. It is the same element, the same weight. Let's take Martin's analysis a step further. That gallon of gasoline you bought last year for $3 is going to cost you almost $4 next year; apply the same math to a gallon of milk, a loaf of bread, a cube of butter . . . It means that if there is a benign boss out there who gives you a $2-an-hour raise over your current salary of $10 an hour, you're just breaking even.

Hell of a way to run a country. But here we are.


mama mia
23.04.2007, 22:10
Gold ends lower, but holds ground well above $690
Precious metal limits retreat as traders eye U.S. dollar, oil activity

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bbc8c51ff-7a6b-41cc-a1d3-fc3a8923fc47%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bbc8c51ff-7a6b-41cc-a1d3-fc3a8923fc47%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:28 PM ET Apr 23, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed lower Monday, retreating from the nearly eight-week high they saw last week, but prices held their ground well above $690 as traders weighed strength in oil prices and fading gains in the U.S. dollar for signs of gold's latest demand prospects.
Gold for June delivery closed down $1.60 at $694.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a drop to $690.50.
"Gold's ability to keep trading just dollars below major technical resistance ($695-$700) speaks volumes," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com.
The strength "may indicate gold is ready to defy calls of a correction -- making the next large move higher," he said in e-mailed comments. Still, "one must keep open to the possibility the price will consolidate before the move above $700."
"This session's primary agent, in terms trading cues, was the U.S. dollar," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
The dollar rose slightly against European currencies on Monday, continuing to rebound from multiyear lows touched last week, as traders awaited U.S. economic data later this week. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollars-rebound-resumes-yen-gains/story.aspx?guid=%7B18DC33B1%2DCE5A%2D47C1%2DB0F2%2D51E4269DCE6B%7D)
However, gold pulled back despite strength in oil prices and "the near-certainty of $4 per gallon gasoline as the summer drivers take to the road in just a few weeks," Nadler said in e-mailed commentary.
Buy opportunity
In the bigger picture, "the recent weakness in the dollar coupled with concerns about the U.S. economy will prompt further asset diversification in the coming sessions, with dips in gold still viewed as good buying opportunities," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients.
On Friday, gold climbed 1.1%, adding $7.50 to close at $696.60 an ounce. It traded as high as $698, its strongest intraday level since Feb. 27.
"While the market is sitting just below the $700 psychological level for gold, we're more impressed by the price holding above our technical target of the $694-$695 level," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard and Co.
"We're heading into peak demand from the Indian wedding season," Ryan said in e-mailed commentary. "Last year we saw prices during this time period go on a nearly $130-per-ounce run in a three-week period."
Ryan predicts gold prices will continue to rally and could reach $800 by year-end. http://i.mktw.net/newsimages/util/tv_icon.gif See video interview with Ryan. (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:var%20pop%20=%20window.open%28%27http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid=%7BDE6D4617-F732-4FFB-970D-2E2A60FFC8E9%7D&clip=042007ryan&type=video%27,%27vviewer%27,%27width=993,height=529,scrollbars=no,resize=no,location=no,status=no%27%29;)
Gold futures, for now, failed to follow crude prices higher. Higher energy prices and their potential effect on the economy usually tend to lift gold.
Concerns that violence in Nigeria, following presidential elections over the weekend, might spread to the country's oil-rich Delta region pulled oil prices past $65 a barrel. Uncertainty ahead of Wednesday's U.S. data on petroleum supplies added support. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-climbs-past-65-level/story.aspx?guid=%7BD59E77CD%2DD57A%2D456D%2DA076%2DE395834E99DF%7D)
Other metals prices saw mixed trading Monday, with silver leading the gains, but platinum and palladium losing ground after last week's strength.
May silver closed up 9.5 cents at $14.05 an ounce, while July platinum fell $9.50, or 0.7%, to end at $1,331.70 an ounce and June palladium fell 85 cents to close at $387.40 an ounce.
"The platinum, silver and palladium [exchange-traded funds] heading to the market from Switzerland won't move the markets a huge amount on their own, but the key will be what kind of follow up we see in other bourses and exchanges for additional, physical-metal backed ETFs," said Blanchard's Ryan.
Chinese copper imports skyrocket
In related news, Gold and copper production at Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold's

FCX (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=FCX)70.69, +0.68, +1.0% ) Grasberg mine in Indonesia is back to normal after a labor dispute was resolved over the weekend, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing a company spokesman.

mama mia
24.04.2007, 21:07
Gold, Silver Fall as Oil Drop Curbs Demand for Inflation Hedge
By Pham-Duy Nguyen

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver fell the most this month in New York as a drop in prices for oil and other commodities reduced the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation.

Oil fell as much as 2.7 percent and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities lost the most in more than six weeks after a drop in home sales sparked speculation an economic slowdown in the U.S. will curb demand for raw materials. Some investors buy gold to hedge against accelerating prices, helping to push the metal up 8.8 percent this year before today.

``There's some selling around the oil drop and the housing numbers,'' said Marty McNeill, a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. ``If there's an economic slowdown, it's going to hurt commodities and gold, too.''

Gold futures for June delivery fell $6.50, or 0.9 percent, to $687.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest drop since March 23. The price failed for a second day to challenge last week's peak of $698.

``Gold is facing stiff resistance as it heads toward the big number of $700,'' said Tom Hartmann, commodity broker at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California.

Losses accelerated after gold dropped below $691, said Steve Phillips, a trader at Eagle Futures Inc. in New York.

``Everybody knew gold was too high,'' he said. ``There are a lot more sellers than buyers at these prices.''

Long Positions

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York gold futures in the week ended April 17, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 135,358 contracts on Comex, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 22,402 contracts, or 20 percent, from a week earlier.

Consumer confidence and existing home sales trailed forecasts, reviving concern about a slowing economy. Americans' confidence slumped to the lowest in eight months and sales of previously owned homes fell in March to the lowest level in almost four years.

Silver, a precious metal with industrial applications in medical devices and batteries, fell the most since March 2 as copper used in pipes and wiring slumped as much as 3 percent.

``Silver came off on copper,'' said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at Integrated Brokerage LLC in Chicago.

Silver for May delivery fell 26.8 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $13.782 an ounce on the Comex. Before today, the price had gained 8.6 percent this year.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: April 24, 2007 14:04 EDT - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ax9kFZ2rGZAI&refer=commodities

mama mia
24.04.2007, 21:09
Golds (HUI): On the Verge of a Breakout

Contributed by Olaf Sztaba
www.na-marketletter.com (http://www.na-marketletter.com/)
Apr 24, 2007

(Weekly chart with the 40-week moving average)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sztaba/sztaba042407.gif For the last year the HUI index has been "technically immobilized" in a lengthy consolidation pattern roughly between 280 and 360. The failure of February's rally to penetrate the upper boundary of this range resulted in a sharp sell-off, which provided an excellent buying opportunity (Update: Gold & Gold stocks: "A healthy pullback on a bullish playing field", March 5, 2007). Recently, the HUI index had a rally to its key resistance and reached the 368 level.

Technical and cyclical evidence suggests that the HUI index is on the verge of a major breakout from its consolidation pattern. Here are the reasons:

Cycles point to late June/early July as the next top for the market and the Gold sector before a larger correction starts,
Gold and Gold stocks are usually strongest toward the tail end of a bull market,
Long- and intermediate-term moving averages continue to point upwards,
The HUI index has outperformed the price of Gold in the last few weeks, which is usually a bullish sign,
Numerous Gold stocks have already had multi-year breakouts (ELD, GBG, GSC, HL, MFL, RNG, KGI, and ITF, to name just a few),
Professional money managers still avoid Gold and Gold stocks at large,
Bullish sentiment is not yet at extreme levels,
Bad news has been handled well by Gold and the Gold sector.
Historically, breakouts of this nature are accompanied by increased volatility around the breakout point. The market's "indecision" is usually short-lived and gives way to a resolute move to the upside. Therefore, we view the recent pullback as part of a bullish picture overall.

A breakout from an extended consolidation pattern is usually a very confusing and nerve-wracking process as investors show a marked degree of caution. Therefore, focus on stocks that have already overcome their key resistance zones and reached new 52-week highs.

Written on http://www.321gold.com/photos/olaf_sztaba.jpgApr 23, 2007
Contributed by Olaf Sztaba
Email: osztaba@na-marketletter.com
Website: www.na-marketletter.com (http://www.na-marketletter.com/)


mama mia
24.04.2007, 21:11
Inflation & Metals

Puru Saxena
24 April 2007

INFLATION/DEFLATION - Analysts and economists seem to be divided over this issue. According to some market observers (including me), we are living in a highly inflationary environment. After all, money supply growth is extremely strong in most countries (Figure 1) and this represents inflation.

Figure 1: Explosive inflation!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena042407/1.gif Source: The Economist The other camp argues that since prices of certain consumer goods are either stable or in decline, we are indeed witnessing genuine deflation. In my view, these "deflationists" seem to miss the point that falling consumer prices (due to improvements in technology or the relocation of manufacturing to relatively inexpensive developing nations) have nothing to do with deflation and everything to do with economic progress. In fact, I would argue that in the current economic environment; due to technological advances, rising productivity, free trade and cheap labour, prices SHOULD be declining. After all, this is the whole point of genuine economic development!

In an ideal world with a stable monetary base (zero monetary inflation), prices of almost everything (with a few exceptions) would be in decline. That would be a sign of real economic progress as people's savings would buy them more goods with every passing year. In our far from ideal world however, the factor preventing this from occurring IS monetary inflation. Due to central-bank sponsored inflation, prices of assets (whose supply is relatively limited when compared to money) are going through the roof! As a result of the ongoing inflation, even basic commodities which are critical for human survival (land, energy and food) have become very expensive, hence scarce for the average person. So, next time when someone tells you that we are witnessing deflation, tell them to look no further than the escalating cost of housing, energy, food, education and medical care.

Finally, if we were indeed witnessing genuine deflation (contraction in the money-supply), all asset-prices would be declining rather than flirting with multi-year highs!

PRECIOUS METALS - We are in a primary bull-market which is currently undergoing a healthy medium-term correction - everything else is "noise". Such corrections are normal and serve the purpose of shaking out the latecomers and the "weak hands". More importantly, such periods of weakness give us the ideal opportunity to increase our positions. I am not sure about you, but I always prefer to buy assets when the sentiment is negative and there is widespread fear amongst the investing public. Furthermore, I never purchase anything after a big rally. This is the reason why despite the brutal sell-off in commodities over the past several months, our managed accounts have held up reasonably well.

I have no doubt in my mind that both gold and silver will appreciate considerably over the coming years. Here are the reasons why:

Terminally-ill US Dollar
Rampant monetary inflation = debasement of currencies
Record-high US trade and current-account deficits
Major top in the US bond-market and rising interest-rates (which will hurt housing)
Sky-high debt levels in developed nations; only option is to inflate the currencies
Rising geo-political tensions and increasing resource wars
A major bull-market in crude oil due to rising demand and tight supplies
Gold and silver are inexpensive in real-terms (inflation-adjusted basis)
Extremely cheap in comparison to financial assets (stocks and bonds)
As I explained in my previous reports, I do not expect gold and silver to surpass their May 2006 highs in the near future. I am of the opinion that both gold and silver are likely to decline into the summer months before embarking on a huge rally towards the end of this year. This action will shake out more weak hands and set the stage for a big advance.

However, if we do get a major conflict in Iran, you will be really glad that you own precious metals.

At present, Asian central banks hold a miniscule 1.5% of their total reserves in gold (Figure 2). You can imagine what will happen to the price of gold when Asian countries start diversifying into the yellow metal. Recently, China announced that it plans to invest US$200 billion of its US$ 1 trillion reserves in strategic assets. So, this move out of "paper" is already underway.

Figure 2: Asian reserve holdings

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena042407/2.gif Since the commencement of this bull-market, precious metals mining shares have provided a leverage of 300% compared to physical bullion. However, over the past few months, physical bullion has outperformed the mining shares. These changes in relative strength are normal and I would advise you to utilise any near-term weakness in mining stocks and invest heavily.

The above is an excerpt from Money Matters, a monthly economic publication, which highlights extraordinary investment opportunities in all major markets. In addition to the monthly reports, subscribers also benefit from timely and concise "Email Updates", which are sent out when an important development in the capital markets warrants immediate attention. Subscribe Today! (http://purusaxena.com/custom.php?cpage=registration)

Puru Saxena
http://www.321gold.com/photos/puru_saxena.jpg (http://www.purusaxena.com/)Saxena Archives (http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Puru+Saxena)
email: puru@purusaxena.com
website: www.purusaxena.com (http://www.purusaxena.com/)


mama mia
24.04.2007, 21:17
Gold futures drop more than $6 at the close

By Myra P. Saefong
Last Update: 1:56 PM ET Apr 24, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold fell $6.50 to close at $687.70 an ounce Tuesday, marking the contract's weakest closing level since April 12. Weakness in crude oil eased worries about the economic impact of high energy prices, dulling demand for the precious metal. May silver fell 1.9%, or 26.8 cents, to end at $13.782 an ounce and May copper lost 8 cents to finish at $3.5525 a pound.


mama mia
24.04.2007, 22:22
DJ PRECIOUS METALS: NY Gold, Silver Pressured By Liquidation
By Allen Sykora

Long liquidation knocked gold and silver futures lower on Tuesday, analysts

June gold fell $6.50 to $687.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange. July silver lost 26.8 cents to $13.916.

Shortly after the gold pits closed, the June gold contract at the Chicago
Board of Trade was down $6.90 in electronic trading to $687.50. CBOT July
silver was down 24.4 cents to $13.938.

"The markets were too high, basically," said Leonard Kaplan, president of
Prospector Asset Management. "The Stochastics were near 90 in gold. You had a
turn at the very top."

Furthermore, he pointed out, crude oil futures were down by more than $1 a
barrel as the gold pit was closing.

"You just saw some liquidation," concluded Kaplan.

"We've seen profit-taking ahead of tomorrow's (Wednesday's) option
expiration," said Jim Quinn, commodity floor analyst with A.G. Edwards. "We've
seen technical-based selling under the overnight lows across the board in gold,
silver and copper."

Comex June gold fell through an overnight low of $689.20, bottoming at
$684.30. Quinn put the next support roughly around $682 to $680, after the
contract held at $682.50 on Thursday.

"There are probably more stops below there," said Quinn.

Options expire in gold and silver on Wednesday.

The rollover in silver is continuing this week, as first-notice day for the
May futures is Monday. Open interest in July silver now tops May.

Meanwhile, July platinum fell $20.20 to $1,311.50 an ounce, while June
palladium lost $8.40 to $379 an ounce.

A couple of traders cited unconfirmed rumors that Russia's government may
have taken some type of action facilitating exports of Platinum Group Metals.

They also cited liquidation after platinum, in particular, had surged lately
on anticipation of new exchange-traded funds for the white metals. They began
in London Tuesday and others are slated for Switzerland next month.

"I think it was a little bit overdone because of the ETFs," said one trader.
"The ETF news had pushed it up."

On the U.S. economic front, existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 8.4% in
March to an annual rate of 6.12 million. The decline was the largest in 18
years, after the forecast had been for a smaller drop to around 6.42 million.

The Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index fell to 104.0 in
April from an upwardly revised 108.2 in March. Economists had expected an April
reading of 105.0.

mama mia
25.04.2007, 21:02
Gold futures close down for a third session

By Polya Lesova
Last Update: 1:52 PM ET Apr 25, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed slightly lower Wednesday, marking a third losing session in a row, as weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength in crude-oil prices failed to propel the metal's price higher. Gold for June delivery closed down 30 cents at $687.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Gold has repeatedly found it difficult to break past the $695 area of resistance, despite reports that suggested that the latest decline in values was linked more to options expiration trades," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. Other metals prices were mixed. May silver fell 1.7 cents at $13.765 an ounce. July platinum ended up $5.70 at $1,317.20 an ounce, June palladium rose $4.05 at $383.05 an ounce and May copper rose 3.35 cents at $3.5860 a pound. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif

mama mia
25.04.2007, 22:32
by Monty Guild and Tony Danaher
Guild Investment Management, Inc.
Date, 2007


With increasing wealth in Asia and the Mid East, these regions are increasing their demand for gold. Gold is a traditional means of hoarding wealth, and represents a way to buy economic security in much of Asia and the Mid East. These parts of the world are growing rapidly. In our opinion, their demand for gold is growing just as rapidly.


Not many major discoveries are being made, and the cost of exploration and mining are rising. Thus new supply is limited. Russia, a major gold mining country, is holding back a larger percentage of their production to hold as reserves; further limiting supply. Finally, many of South Africa’s mines have experienced production declines in recent years.

In our opinion, these factors argue for a continuation and acceleration of the rise in the gold price.


What Russia is doing is of vital importance to the world. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has moved to a more centralized state ownership, with the political elite, the former KGB elite, and the bureaucratic elite taking control jointly of a number of key industries. They have not hesitated to push Royal Dutch Shell out of their oil holdings in Sakhalin Island, and they have taken back a lot of energy and metals holdings from the oligarchs who did not give them back. These assets, along with precious and strategic metals, and weapons manufacturing have been consolidated under government control.

Russia, over the next few years will continue to consolidate power in the hands of the same elites with the military also gaining power. A centralized state is once again being formed. This state will allow more private enterprise than the communists, but less that was the case five years ago. One thing is for sure. T hey will use their resources as a lever to achieve the goals of increased political and economic influence in the world.

Eighty percent of Russians like Putin, and favor what he has done. They will be happy to accept his appointed successor, even if they do not know who it is in advance.


mama mia
25.04.2007, 22:35
Dow Jones ATH :cool

mama mia
26.04.2007, 15:30
Gold Drops the Most in Seven Weeks in London; Silver Declines
By Claudia Carpenter

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell the most in more than seven weeks and silver also declined as some investors judged the metal was no longer correlated to the dollar or crude-oil prices.

Some investors buy dollar-denominated gold as a store of value as the dollar weakens, while other buy the metal as a hedge against inflation when energy becomes more costly. Gold has failed to react to a weaker dollar or higher oil prices in the last several trading sessions.

``The market is threatening to break down,'' said David Holmes, director of precious metals sales at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. ``Gold has not been able to react favorably to a weak dollar or a strong oil price, and consequently we're seeing some capitulation.''

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as $11.55, or 1.7 percent, to $674.70 an ounce in London, its biggest intraday decline in percentage terms since March 2. The metal was trading at $677.38 as of 1:43 p.m. in London. The price has dropped 2.2 percent this week. Gold may fall to $665, the 50-day moving average, Holmes said, without giving a time frame.

Silver declined 26 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $13.55.

Bullion is heading for its first weekly drop since early March and silver for a second weekly decline. Both metals rose in 2006 as the dollar weakened and energy costs advanced.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 26, 2007 08:47 EDT - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=azpgBvolqguw&refer=commodities

mama mia
26.04.2007, 22:34
:schwitz:( :rolleyes

Gold futures close at a more than two-week low
Recent strength in U.S. stocks adds to easing investment demand

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B0867d666-3307-4af1-a01d-769240dfcc1f%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B0867d666-3307-4af1-a01d-769240dfcc1f%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:11 PM ET Apr 26, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped more than $9 an ounce Thursday to close at their lowest level in more than two weeks as a rebound in the U.S. dollar and the climb in the broader U.S. stock market to a record level eased investment demand for the precious metal.
"Gold is being pushed down by momentum funds moving money to paper equities," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "Fear of missing a rally in paper assets is rampant."
Gold for June delivery closed down $9.40, or 1.4%, at $678 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- its weakest closing level since April 9. It fell to $674.50 earlier in the session. On Wednesday, gold futures dropped 30 cents to close at $687.40 an ounce.
"Traders liquidated positions on perceptions that falling oil and even a mildly rising dollar were good enough of an excuse to test the downside in the metal," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in e-mailed comments.
The dollar gained across the board Thursday. The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar, while the greenback was up 0.8% vs. the yen. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-rebounds-near-record-low/story.aspx?guid=%7B0128DA90%2DECC6%2D4022%2D85F3%2D35293561CB49%7D)
But on Wednesday, the dollar had traded within striking distance of its record low against the euro of $1.3666, after economic reports boosted speculation that the interest-rate differential between the United States and the eurozone will continue to narrow.
The "dollar broke to a new cycle low yesterday, which means gold is ultimately going higher," said Schmidt, in e-mailed comments..
And Friday's report on U.S. GDP will "likely show that U.S. recession imminent, which will make the U.S. dollar a sale," he said.
So "buy gold on this price weakness," he said.
Elsewhere in commodities trading Thursday, crude-oil futures finished lower after Iran said it was approaching a "united view" with the European Union on resolving tensions around the Mideast country's nuclear program. But strength in gasoline prices limited crude's weakness. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/natural-gas-futures-end-more-2/story.aspx?guid=%7B885D1447%2D2F4C%2D4831%2D9766%2D34A7DBF0EFFD%7D)
The current period of consolidation in gold has been healthy, "taking some of the heat out of the market," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients.
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, overcoming an early wave of consolidation, as upbeat earnings helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average further above 13,000 to record territory. <img class="pixelTracking" border="0" height="1" width="1">$INDU (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=$INDU)13,105.50, +15.61, +0.1% ) above 13,000. See Market Snapshot. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-stocks-rise-upbeat-earnings/story.aspx?guid=%7B973648A6%2D99FF%2D4E52%2DBECE%2D096BFA4D624C%7D)
Meanwhile, "we won't know until Tuesday what the [central bank] sales levels have been for this past week, but we still believe that there is a significant tonnage of sales hitting the market this week, putting considerable pressure on the [gold] price," Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard said in e-mailed commentary.
Ryan said that his company recommends a long-term trading strategy for metals investments rather than a day-trading strategy.
"The key to participating in this market is to take a position, buy on market weakness and have a long-term outlook of three to five years," Ryan said. "The only time you're going to hear from us that we're bearish on the price is when we think the run is through....sometime in 2012 or further."
Other metals prices also posted sharp losses Thursday.
May silver fell 3.2%, or 44 cents, to close at $13.325 an ounce -- the contract's lowest closing level since late March.
"Silver is the orphan market at the moment," said Schmidt. It's a "screaming buy" that's "building base for a new high."
July platinum declined $13.60 to close at 1,303.60 an ounce, June palladium fell $9.65 to end at $373.40 an ounce and May copper dropped 2.7%, or 9.8 cents, to finish at $3.488 a pound.
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 7.68 million troy ounces as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies were unchanged at 129.4 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell by 147 short tons to 34,793 short tons.

mama mia
27.04.2007, 08:35
http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/cgi-bin/chart?inst=FIMS.274702,176&color=000001&rcolor=-1&inst2=FIMS.998089,4&color2=FF0629&from=&to=&period=YEAR&width=450&height=300&bgcolor=f2f2f2&pcolor=000000&mcolor=009900&lcolor=FF3300&type=1&smode=7&graph=&corr=000001&avg1=FF902D&pavg1=&avg2=FF74E1&pavg2=&pbolli=&time=1177654818 http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/spacer.gif http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/chart_box_black.gif GOLD 1UZ http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/chart_box_red.gif SMI

http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/cgi-bin/chart?inst=FIMS.274702,176&color=000001&rcolor=-1&inst2=FIMS.998032,830&color2=FF0629&from=&to=&period=YEAR&width=450&height=300&bgcolor=f2f2f2&pcolor=000000&mcolor=009900&lcolor=FF3300&type=1&smode=7&graph=&corr=000001&avg1=FF902D&pavg1=&avg2=FF74E1&pavg2=&pbolli=&time=1177655250 http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/spacer.gif http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/chart_box_black.gif GOLD 1UZ http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/chart_box_red.gif DAX

http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/cgi-bin/chart?inst=FIMS.274702,176&color=000001&rcolor=-1&inst2=FIMS.998750,4&color2=FF0629&from=&to=&period=YEAR&width=450&height=300&bgcolor=f2f2f2&pcolor=000000&mcolor=009900&lcolor=FF3300&type=1&smode=7&graph=&corr=000001&avg1=FF902D&pavg1=&avg2=FF74E1&pavg2=&pbolli=&time=1177655401 http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/chart_box_black.gif GOLD 1UZ http://bekb.inet.rolotec.ch/image/chart_box_red.gif SPI


mama mia
27.04.2007, 08:45
DJ PRECIOUS METALS: NY Gold, Silver Tumble On Profit-Taking
By Allen Sykora


Long liquidation and chart-based selling knocked gold and silver futures
sharply lower Thursday, traders and analysts said.

Traders cited fund selling, with sell stops triggered.

June gold fell $9.40 to $678 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange. As pit trade was closing, the June contract at the Chicago
Board of Trade was down $9.60 to $678.

Comex July silver fell 44.2 cents to $13.455. As it was closing, CBOT July
silver was down 43.6 cents to $13.455.

"The market got to the overbought stage, so some profit-taking appeared,"
said Don Tierney, precious-metals analyst on the Comex floor with B&C Trading.

He and George Gero, vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures,
both reported Thursday morning that some of the recent strength in equities may
have impacted gold.

"Some people who were long in these metals didn't want to hold on any
longer," said Tierney. "It looked like they liquidated some in the metals and
were in the process of trying their money in the stock market this morning."

This occurred some on Wednesday, but picked up Thursday when metals opened
weaker, Tierney added.

"The lows have penetrated some of the minor support areas in both gold and
silver," said Tierney.

The key area that failed in the June gold was around $680, Tierney said.
Selling accelerated in July silver on a break of the area from $13.65 to
$13.60, he continued.

Early in the day, some traders blamed part of the metals' weakness on soft
crude oil and a strong dollar. But gold remained sharply lower even when crude
later turned positive.

"It's not the energy pullback nor the dollar any more," said Gero during the
latter part of the session. "It's technicals and momentum loss."

Traders may now be cautious about re-entering the market for another day or
two, until they get a better feel of how far prices will fall, Tierney said.

June gold hit peaks of $698 on Friday and $697.70 on Monday, but could not
generate follow-through to carry it through $700. "Some felt that was a
double-top," said Tierney.

Analysts with MKS Finance said in a research note that some of the weakness
in silver also can be tied to a sell-off in copper.

"Copper failed to break above a critical resistance of $8,100 (per ton, basis
three-months in London), which boosted selling pressure on those who were
holding long positions after a four-day strike in Indonesia last week sent it
to its highest levels in seven months," they wrote. "Copper dropped 3%,
dragging silver with it. This one-way downside road continued throughout the
New York trading session, with spot eventually reaching the low of $13.20."

The Comex silver rollover is continuing this week, as first-notice day for
May silver futures is next Monday.

Meanwhile, July platinum fell $13.60 to $1,303.60 an ounce, while June
palladium declined $9.65 to $373.40 an ounce.

One trader cited long liquidation that hit these metals along with the
weakness that occurred in gold, silver and the base metals.

Another trader also cited profit-taking, but added that some of the concerns
about tight supplies may have abated some. He cited news this week that
Russia's Almazyuvelirexport has received a license to export platinum from
Norilsk Nickel, along with an announcement that Lonmin has completed rebuilding
its No. 1 furnace and expects to resume normal smelting and refining operations
by the end of the month. Refined metal sales fell after the furnace was shut
down in mid-December, the company said.

These developments come after anticipation of exchange-traded funds for the
white metals - one that began in London this week and another planned by a
Swiss bank next month - would help tighten supplies, since metal goes into
storage to back ETF shares. This has lent support to the market in recent
sessions, with July platinum hitting a contract high of $1,345 on Monday.

"We've had different factors pulling the market in different directions at
the same time," said the trader. "The (reaction to) ETFs might have been a
little bit overdone, driving up the price as high as it did. But we have news
of supply issues easing a little bit. It was a good time to do some
profit-taking. That caused it to drop back down nearly as rapidly as it went

On the U.S. front, initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 321,000 on a
seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended April 21.

A key report on Friday that traders have been talking about all week is the
8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) release of advance first-quarter gross domestic
product in the U.S. The consensus estimate is for a 1.8% increase.

Other reports include the Employment Cost Index due out at the same time and
forecast to be up 0.9% in the first quarter, plus the University of Michigan
consumer-sentiment index at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), forecast at 85.0 after 85.3
in mid-April.

Settlements (includes open-outcry and electronic trading):
London PM Gold Fix: $673 versus $684 Wednesday
Spot gold at 1:31 p.m. ET: $675.05, down $11 from previous day; Range:
June gold (GCM07) $678, down $9.40; Range $674.40-$690.30
July silver (SIN07) $13.455, down 44.2 cents; Range $13.30-$13.97
July platinum (PLN07) $1,303.60, down $13.60; Range $1,295-$1,322
June palladium (PAM07) $373.40, down $9.65; Range $369.75-$383.20

-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-26-07 1415ET

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

mama mia
27.04.2007, 12:31
-- Posted Friday, 27 April 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1177686060.php&title=Central%20Bank%20Gold%20101&bodytext=%20%20%20It%20is%20our%20firm%20belief%20that%20the%20reason%20we%20have%20seen%20the%20gold%20market%20fail%20to%20take%20the%20$700%20level%20over%20the%20past%20week%20is%20due%20to%20the%20continued%20increase%20in%20Central%20Bank%20gold%20sales,%20specifically%20those%20out%20of%20the%20European%20Central%20Bank%20%28ECB%29%20system.%20Central%20Banks%20around%20the%20globe%20can%20influence%20gold%20prices%20via%20two%20methods.%C2%A0%20CB%27s%20can...&topic=business_finance)


It is our firm belief that the reason we have seen the gold market fail to take the $700 level over the past week is due to the continued increase in Central Bank gold sales, specifically those out of the European Central Bank (ECB) system.

Central Banks around the globe can influence gold prices via two methods. CB's can make outright sales and purchases of gold, or CB's can loan/swap gold into the market or call those loans/swaps back into their reserves. For the sake of this explanation, we'll leave the loan/swap segment out because until the IMF changes are implemented in the market allowing for correct accounting of those loans/swaps, we would only be using guesstimates and dumb luck to quantify those levels.

Before the Washington Agreement on Gold (now referred to as the Central Bank Gold Agreement - CBGA) was implemented in 1999, CB's were free to sell gold willy-nilly into the marketplace with no thresholds on volume or timing. Recognizing that the lack of oversight or control was destroying the value of their gold reserves, the CBGA changed that with signatories agreeing to only sell 400 tonnes annually from 1999-2004. Those levels were augmented in the 2nd Agreement to 500 tonnes annually for the 2004-2009 period. Starting in 1999, CBGA signatories were now restricted to only selling 12.8 million ounces and starting in 2004, 16 million ounces annually into the market. (1 tonne = 32,150 oz.)

Annual supply usually floats around the 120 million ounce level, so CB sales, assuming they fill their allotment each year, represent roughly 10-13% of annual supply into the gold market.

For the first time in the life of both agreements, signatories to the CBGA failed to reach their annual sales allotment coming up nearly 120 tonnes short in the 2006 calendar year. That 120 tonne shortfall in 2006, represented a decrease of about 3.2% in supply into the market.

This 3.2% decrease in supply has come at the same time we've seen an 8% decrease in annual mine supply over the past five years, 80 million ounces of demand via dehedging in the gold market, 2nd and 3rd tier central banks adding to reserves and increased investor demand across the globe.

ECB banks have sold over 76 tonnes of gold into the market over the past five weeks. This is in sharp contrast to the past 6 months when ECB banks had sold only 112 tonnes of gold into the market. We believe that we are still experiencing increased levels of sales this week, so we may yet revise the 76 tonne figure higher in the coming weeks. This huge influx of supply into the market has, in our opinion, been the one drag on the market, but it certainly has it's upside.

So what's the upside?

History has shown that pressure is certainly applied on top of the market during each period of elevated CB sales. This can be no clearer illustration than what happened after the Bank of England and Gordon Brown announced they would sell over 400 tonnes of gold reserves, causing prices to hit 20-year lows in what most traders now refer to as the Brown Bottom. In the last decade, we have also seen the Bank of Canada sell off all of it's gold holdings, the Banks of Switzerland, Australia, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, and France, amongst others, also sell off a major percentages of their gold holdings into the market. The one thing that has held true is that the gold price has continued to bounce back and head higher as these sales have concluded.

In the past, increased sale levels have had a significant impact on the market, most recently when 80 tonnes were sold into the market over 4 weeks in May of 2006, we saw prices fall from $730 per ounce and test the $575 level. To a lesser extent, we saw +50 tonnes of sales hit the market in September of 2006, sending prices from $605 to $565 per ounce. What we are seeing presently is that sales have increased considerably without the bottom falling out of the market as has been the case in the past. The market is experiencing some price weakness as it struggles to continue to digest these massive sales, but the price has continued to trend higher in the face of these increases. This is a watershed event for the market and investors need to understand what this means to them. The days of massive bank sale increases tanking the market are coming to a close for two reasons.

1. The market has finally demonstrated the ability to gobble up these sales and continue trending higher, even if the increased supply is keeping us from the major price increases we have been expecting.

2. Central banks have shown that they are simply running out of the gold they will part with via sales into the market. It is our belief that the Bank of France is the lone seller of any magnitude left out in the marketplace. Other ECB captive banks have completed their announced sales programs. The two others left with any sizeable gold reserves, Germany and Italy, have never sold gold of any significant amount under the CBGA agreements.

When the Bank of France is finished selling which we believe is coming close to being a reality, the market will have potentially lost a large portion (10-13%) of it's annual supply. We do expect at some point in the future to see CB sales to increase, but not until the price has had another significant increase as well. The IMF gold sales have been trotted out lately to solve IMF funding issues. Without approval from Congress, which we believe is quite remote, these sales will never take place.

While gold sales have increased over the past five weeks, levels should still be short of the annual allotment from the CBGA, the second time in two years. Look at these sales increases as a gift. They are allowing investors to add to metal holdings at lower prices while not tanking the market and causing investors to lose interest. When the banks are done selling, gold will be in the strongest hands, those of individual investors.

And taking a page from history, the gold price will also be considerably higher.


mama mia
27.04.2007, 12:40
http://news.goldseek.com/DougCasey/dougcasey.jpg Gold Stocks in a Rising Gold Market

http://news.goldseek.com/DougCasey/casey.PNG (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=1&ppref=GSK001ED0307A)
By: Doug Casey, Casey Research LLC (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=1&ppref=GSK001ED0307A)

-- Posted Friday, 27 April 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/DougCasey/1177690953.php&title=Gold%20Stocks%20in%20a%20Rising%20Gold%20Market&bodytext=%20While%20there%20are%20a%20number%20of%20ways%20to%20play%20rising%20gold%20prices,%20my%20personal%20favorite%20is%20the%20higher-quality%20junior%20precious%20metals%20exploration%20companies.%20Those%20are%20companies%20with%20a%20high%20risk%20profile%20%28few%20will%20ever%20actually%20make%20an%20economic%20discovery%29,%20but%20you%20can%20apply%20analytical%20screens%20to%20them%20that%20greatly%20lower%20that%20risk%E2%80%A6%20leaving...&topic=business_finance)

While there are a number of ways to play rising gold prices, my personal favorite is the higher-quality junior precious metals exploration companies. Those are companies with a high risk profile (few will ever actually make an economic discovery), but you can apply analytical screens to them that greatly lower that risk… leaving some truly extraordinary upside.

How extraordinary? While an extreme example, on the back of the Eskay Creek discovery Consolidated Stikine Resources went from 10 cents per share in 1988 up to a high of $73 in 1990,a stunning 70,000% gain!

These stocks do well during periods of crisis for several reasons, but mainly because they are such a small sub-set of the financial landscape that even a fractional increase in interest sends them soaring. And this time around, I think we are going to see the high end of the range that these stocks are capable of, for the following reasons:

Increase in Equity Accounts. Thanks in no small part to the dot-com boom, never before have more North American households been involved in equity markets.

As the gold stock story filters through to them, they’ll find it highly appealing and he’ll have the ability to act immediately. Furthermore, such people are trend followers; they know nothing except to buy stocks that have a positive chart. For the first time since the Internet bubble burst, they’re going to have a real tiger by the tail. In other words, for the very first time in their history, gold stocks are going to have not only the cognoscenti but the unwashed masses piling in. The bull market will be breathtaking when this gets underway.
Meteoric Rise in Hedge Funds. In a similar vein, we now have the whole new phenomenon of hedge funds, which have grown like kudzu all over the financial tree. They were a non-factor in earlier bull markets, but now number over 12,000 and manage on the order of $1 trillion. Moreover, the majority of these funds are run by twenty- and thirty-somethings with little experience in a real bear market and are herd-like and aggressive to boot. Gold is increasingly finding favor as an asset class with the hedgers.
The Rise of the AIM. Thanks in no small part to the incessant meddling by U.S. regulators, London’s AIM is increasingly becoming the “go to” market for resource companies, offering these companies exposure to a wider audience than the less trafficked Canadian markets which have traditionally been home to the junior exploration companies.
Convergence of Higher Gold Prices and Discoveries. Perhaps most important is that, for the first time ever, we should witness a round of economic mineral discoveries against the backdrop of a major bull market in gold (and silver) prices.

The trickle of financings for precious metals exploration that began soon after gold’s 20-year bear market came to an end in April of 2001 has turned into a small flood. In fact, according to the Metals Economic Group, in 2006 the amount of money raised for exploration topped $7.6 billion, the fourth year in a row that there has been an increase, and the highest total since they began tracking the numbers in 1989.

All that money, much of it in the hands of teams headed by experienced pros let go by the large gold companies during the long bear market, has set off a massive number of new and fast-moving exploration initiatives, using the latest technology and squarely focused on the world’s most prospective geological addresses. It is not a matter of "if" there will be significant discoveries, but "when."
If all unfolds as it can, and likely will, for the first time ever, we’ll benefit from a concurrence of a discovery market with much higher precious metals prices. Toss in a lot of investors with a lot of cash, nervous about the outlook for global financial markets and looking for a trend to fall in love with, and you have all the elements necessary for you and me as early investors in the resource sector to pull down truly extraordinary gains.

Don’t get overly greedy, and don’t mortgage the house to buy gold stocks. But do make sure that you move toward being fully invested... which, depending on your willingness and ability and level of risk tolerance, might take you up to 20% - 25% of your portfolio.

You’re going to find good reason to love gold stocks. But I hope you won’t fall in love with them. Although I’m a philosophical gold bug, I’m not always a gold bull. I always keep in the back of my mind that gold shares aren’t heirlooms, they’re burning matches. And while I still think this market will see gold’s biggest run in history, when it’s over these stocks will lose 90% of their value... as does any class of stocks when a mania ends. But the good news is that the mania hasn’t even begun.


mama mia
27.04.2007, 12:51
...bissle lang :schwitz

By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)
http://goldseek.com/news/GoldenJackass/2007/hat%20trick%20logo.JPGhome: Golden Jackass website (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)

subscribe: Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html)

Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”

Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.

Throughout the entire 2004 and 2005 years, the global financial markets were subjected to utter nonsense and propaganda about a new Macro Economy. Its main pillar was the recycle of vast Asian trade surplus into USTreasurys. The chief carnival barker for the concept was Alan Greenspan, even as its proponents labeled the crutch the name “Bretton Woods II” in pure heretical fashion. The Bretton Woods Accord, linking the USDollar to gold, was real and valid and enforced. It is about as far in function, meaning, and validity as gold (real & tangible) is from the USDollar (paper & counterfeit). Thus the HERESY. In the last several months, a painfully clear trend is the ABSENCE of Asian recycled funds. On a net basis, led by Japan and China, the Asian group has shown flat USTBond purchases from their central banks, a radical departure from yesteryears. The US exports its inflation to Asia in order to pay for its bill for finished products, but Asia has RESISTED the temptation to put good money after bad into USTBonds. Implications concerning the faulty and stripped mythological premise are huge.

The USDollar is exposed, soon to be hung out to dry, with the kick over the edge being upcoming Euro Central Bank rate hikes. The busted Bretton Woods II myth represents a missing crucial support pillar for the broken USDollar. No BW2 means no prevailing ideology to serve as intellectual support. Asians will next be purchasing gold & energy, both refined and raw ore, both securities tied to gold & energy and related companies, alongside stockpiles of commodities, as they eschew the US$-based system. China has already tipped off the world powers on their intention. As with all myths, they are mere excrement spewed by economists to justify their failed policies, which erringly found its way in direct route to the food tables for the financial markets. The entire departure and cave-in for the flimsy Bretton Woods II concept will be part of the upcoming May Hat Trick Letter report.

What does the death of Bretton Woods II mean? Many things, all good for gold and bad for the USDollar. 1) It means the USDollar is in for a potential free fall, as support from guy wires is missing, and control is being lost among principal partners. The DX dollar index now stands below 82, in the DANGER ZONE. The main partner for support is the oil producers, whose backyard has been turned into a war zone. 2) It means the global support pillars for the world reserve currency have begun to lean on the printing press more than recycled trade surpluses. 3) It means the USTreasury Bond support will be coerced more through brute force since mutual agreement has begun to fail, like more war in the Persian Gulf. 4) It means more officially sponsored attacks on hedge funds will occur, since their liquidation of spread trades typically generates considerable USTBond support from short covering. 5) It means the threat of a restructuring of US debt securities is growing more likely with each passing month, alternatives being a writedown (from US$ devaluation) or a second USDollar itself.

In time, my full expectation is for a domestic dollar to be used as legal tender in the Receivership USEconomy (as in bankrupt), and a second investment dollar to be used by foreign bond holders (demanded by credit masters). The value of USTBonds held by foreigners will continue to be at great risk, something the foreigners have become acutely aware of, and expressed vocally outwardly. The loss in the US$ exchange rate (versus euro and yen) will likely outpace any potential rise in bond principal from a falling long-term bond yield. Europeans have endured a loss in S&P stock holdings, with the next loss endured to be in USTBonds. China is in no way as controllable as Japan or Saudi Arabia. See the proliferation in reserves accumulated by developing nations. The geopolitical power shift is underway. The only way the United States is capable of keeping their musical debt merry-go-round turning might be through force, namely a wider war and trade protection. The war will keep the pressure on the Persian Gulf nations to continue both USTBond support and weapons outlay purchases. A higher oil price will win their consent. The trade protection effort will backfire. Those in deep debt cannot threaten their creditors.



The Bretton Woods II myth has been shattered, decimated, and laid to waste, without much reporting. The dominant myth from 2002 to 2006 promoted the belief that the global financial system operated as a macro economy which moves together, is supplied together, is coordinated by central bank decisions, and enjoys the free brisk flow of capital. What a crock! Its agenda and purpose is to sustain the USEconomy and US financial system desperate for imported capital, whereby the world’s savings will be shipped for voracious US usage, all without much interest yield paid out. What colossal nonsense! The myth emerged from the ethos crucible without much substance. It has vanished into the ethos dustbin as quietly as its vacant value.

Last week, a past article (on the PetroDollar abused in a protection racket) was resurrected. This week another past article “Economic Mythology” (click here (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/willie092704.html)) from September 2004 is resurrected, highly relevant again. It painted a reasonable description of the current myth in force. The principle argument was that in order to sustain a fallacious economic system, whose foundation is but shifting sands whipped by the ebb & flow of monetary inflation, that system needs an utterly absurd sequence of myths to be widely accepted as ideology, promoted by a trusted harlot. The result is like a crowd of mindless zombies uttering mantras like people devoid of brains, but whose bodies move enough to cast their next order to purchase stocks or bonds. FOREX traders do not qualify as zombies, and therein lies a problem.

The bankrupt dogma of this Macro Economy Myth contains many ludicrous belief constructs, uttered widely, containing no substance or validity, each totally heretical, worth mentioning. We hear childlike nonsense like ‘debt is good’ for the explosive credit crack, like ‘to spend is vital’ for the anti-investment consumer crack, like ‘low-cost solution’ for the outsourced job betrayal, like ‘house is home not investment’ for the unproductive housing crack, like ‘service sector is cleaner’ for the manufacturing demise crack, like ‘risk is offloaded’ for the uncontrolled derivative crack, like ‘military spending benefits the economy’ for the destructive drain crack, like ‘USGovt bonds offer true value’ for the absent high volume highly liquid alternative, like ‘foreigners are partners’ for the credit supply hemorrhage crack, like ‘Asian finished products fairly traded for US assets’ for the fraudulent payment with bad debt paper masquerading as money, and like ‘US is the global engine’ for the gross global imbalances. My viewpoint is that the current system manifests a national liquidation of capital that is endemic to the USEconomy.

Someday we will be living downstream from a sewage treatment plant, and told the offensive odor is the ‘scent of a new flower species’ for more nonsense explained as a new fecal orchid. Worse still is the likelihood that we will hear ‘Work Makes You Free’ in the face of rampant unemployment. That phrase has vivid meaning only to perhaps 5% of the US population, maybe less. The next myth in your face will be ‘a lower dollar is good for the US’ which fails to consider how the entire cost structure within the USEconomy will rise in a manner to cripple both businesses and households.


The tougher questions are ‘Why did anyone believe such empty concepts?’ along with ‘How stupid must the masses be?’ and lastly ‘How compromised must pundits be?’ in my book. The tragedy lies in admission that the concepts were empty, but newer better concepts have replaced them, each from a new empty mythology. Here are some of the major points made over 30 months ago, each more clearly discarded to the dustbin as having no value. The concepts were at the time considered immutable truths, since spoken by Greenspan, and since repeated by trusted Wall Street titans, and echoed by talking heads in the financial press & media. These shattered myths were mainstay dogmas to the silly Bretton Woods II belief system, now rubble.

House bubble claimed as valid wealth: Rising property values and associated home equity growth is a legitimate form of wealth generation, a viable foundation for the New Economy. In promoting this concept, Greenspan resembled a hedge fund manager, not a central banker. In fact, many expert financial analysts have compared the USEconomy to a grand hedge fund, since so many shared characteristics are evident and identifiable. As the housing crisis and the mortgage debacle have begun to unfold, we know better now. The reluctance shrouded in deep denial testifies to the desperation to maintain the myth. The mortgage lender burial ground now contains some Alt-A and borderline prime lenders, which undercut claims of no contagion. Next is the damage to commercial lenders, who employed the same ditzy lending practices with 0% down payment and slim documentation methods. In fact, the debacle in progress qualifies as a potential 3-SIGMA event to trigger derivative accidents.

USEconomic dependence upon housing is ok: The main source of fuel for the USEconomy was derived from housing jobs and lending institution jobs, with spending based on home equity extractions. This is a nightmare design. Such a design succeeds until the bubble retreats, or even stalls. The historically validated concept of business investment leading the pack has been discarded in favor of a reckless dependence upon a housing and asset bubble (like stocks). A bigger perspective reveals that the USEconomy has grown dependent upon a bond bubble which extends to housing, whose size is 20 times larger than the tech & telecom bubble in 2000. Both were destined to burst. The current bond bubble bust is still in the initial stages of unraveling in a mounting crisis. Note how the spring housing recovery (another careless mythical construct last autumn) has already been discarded, yet it served its purpose in market levitation at the time. We have another two to four years at least in the housing & mortgage collapse. Consumers will be affected as surely as night follows day. No myth of constant sunshine is likely to emerge.

Manufacturing base not essential: The systemic abandonment of the US mfg base is one root symptom of the pathogenesis marred by chronic inflation and prominent labor unions and heavy corporate tax structure and fringe worker benefit burdens and overstepping safety regulators (OSEA) and omnipresent environmental regulators (EPA). The myth which purports that the manufacturing base is unnecessary, that the service sector can replace it, is total absurd. History shows that the service sector follows the mfg base in its path. Furthermore, the service sector pays lower wages, offers worse benefits, and can offer little security when the mfg base and its capital base provide the foundation for business investment and economic structure.

Foreign central bank support of USTBonds: To assume Asians will provide necessary capital for USTreasury Bond supply forever is pure folly. Take a closer look, and see that since July 2005, Asian central banks have purchased in aggregate only a small amount. They have been loaded to the gills in USTBond paper of questionable value. China has essentially called a moratorium on further US$-based securities in their FOREX reserves account. Not only did this myth get shattered, nobody even noticed.

Pinprick vulnerable spots to the Macro Economy Myth were identified 30 months ago, all of which stand in the limelight as more clear symptoms of current distress. See the continued Asian outsourcing of jobs, a malady never to subside until the trade war is in a greater bloom than already. See the Fanny Mae continued cover-up of a probable credit derivative meltdown, certainly a bankruptcy, whose earnings restatement and year of accounting darkness testified to receivership. The faltering consumer spending has simply not been properly recognized, since its pace cannot keep up with the price inflation rate, which itself runs triple to the official number (if reality is sought). The continued trade gap reads like a medical hemorrhage, whose retreat would testify to the grand systemic liquidation underway. The continued federal deficit is not so much a myth, but evidence of basic lies. The USGovt talks of declining deficits, yet the crash course toward the next spending limit set by Congress approaches the next $ trillion with fewer months each time.

The conclusion of that past article in Sept 2004 on Mythology seems appropriate here. “In order to keep the charade going, the nation, its trading partners, and investors worldwide must be fooled, tricked, and deceived by myths. Without such myths, we would be forced to endure a painful correction to inflated assets, and be subjected to a severe debt downgrade. The consequence would be a grand decline in the standard of living for most American households and citizens. The world economy depends too much on our spending, even if that spending is led by evermore debt in an overly burdened debt environment. In all likelihood, the world economy would enter a deep recession, or worse. So maintaining and perpetuating myths is essential… What will the next economic myth be, sold to the world ???”

It seems the excellent analyst Axel Merk has written about “Dollar Myths” in a current article (click here (http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1177599840.php)). His topic is more limited in mine, but important, since propagation of myths is essential to a crippled system. Besides, what he calls myths are more like faulty construct beliefs within the larger mythology in my book.

The entire body of economic statistics represent false shadows cast against the wall, each to support the current empty mythology. The US Gross Domestic Product is running at minus 1.5%, not in the 3% range. The US Consumer Price Index is running at 10%, not in the 3% range. The US jobless rate is running at 12%, not in the 5% range. Check the Shadow Govt Statistics for a snapshot of reality, whose calculations are divorced from mythology and rooted in unwanted reality. These guys remove gimmicks, otherwise known as accounting fraud, or more simply lies. The statistical lies took root in the early 1990 decade. If the word ‘is’ cannot be defined, then the statistics cannot be trusted.


Here is the likely response by those who spin mythologies. Instead of a new myth, we see massive denial of a housing bust, and widespread denial of a mortgage contagion debacle. No new myth will be employed, since the denial will reach an enduring crescendo, enough to divert attention away from reality. The next solution will very possibly be to enable a much higher crude oil price. Since the summer of 2005, the Persian Gulf nations have replaced the absent Asians in credit supply. Oil prices have prevailed at a higher level, enough to generate larger Persian Gulf oil producer surpluses. The sheikdoms have done a marvelous job of concealing their grandiose USTreasury Bond support, using London-based bond brokers, and London-based hedge fund mangers, and London-based agencies dotting the archipelago offshore from the United States along the Caribbean. England might not offer much troop assistance in the Iraqi War, but the nation surely comes through with assistance in banking. Besides, banking is where the real power is anyway. Military deployment is often to support the banking enterprises.

The Iraqi War serves many purposes, some not to be discussed since so seamy. The Bank of Baghdad was cited as a trading pit for JPMorgan last week, where oil funds are actually used to suppress the crude oil price. It is a clearing house for more, a convenient bank without the encumbrance of regulatory oversight, the perfect central bank for the cabal in power. The more sinister overt effect from the war is the invisible gun pointed at the heads of the Persian Gulf nations. They each feel more insecure, since Iran has been the hidden winner in the reckless failed war effort. Shiite influence has grown. Persian Gulf spending on US military equipment is on the rise, a big rise. The sheiks feel somewhat compelled to purchase USTBonds. Any retreat spawns a quid pro quo retreat is US troop presence. This is the Protection Racket described last week. So the sheiks buy more US bonds and buy more US weapons. This helps to fill the void, to provide necessary capital for the USGovt directly and USEconomy indirectly. How will they respond when they learn that Iraqi oil funds are used to keep down the futures contract prices for crude oil? Perhaps the sheiks will purchase more gold, sell USTBonds quietly, undercut the USDollar, and BUY MORE GOLD ???

A higher crude oil price, in my opinion, was one of the primary objectives in the Iraq War. Recall that the USGovt leaders serve as Senators from the State of Oil, and thrive on a higher oil price. Greater Persian Gulf petro surpluses could be counted upon, given the tinderbox next door. A troop withdrawal from Iraq, ordered by US Military leaders, might be accompanied by dropped USTreasury support by the oil sheiks, since no motive remains. These nations might lose motivation quickly, after a war involving US troops and weapons and vessels were to be replaced by a civil war led by factions like Shiite versus Sunni versus Kurd versus secular thugs versus American mercenaries wearing different uniforms.


As economic principles are long foregone, as economic mythology takes their place, the role of men in power become of paramount importance. Men are looked toward for saving the system, as in Greenspan. Institutions change in their role for the society. Instead of being strong through independence, these institutions become subverted by means of stronger associations tied to the government power center. This is precisely the warning known to the Mussolini Fascist Business Model. The institutions can no longer be counted upon to assist the system, when they are the umbilical cords for illicit profit within a system without checks & balances, where prosecution is non-existent. The US Federal Reserve is JPMorgan. The Dept of Treasury is Goldman Sachs. The Iron Triangle supports the US Military. These entities do the government’s bidding and execution of programs. Not one single Wall Street firm or bank has been marred by the rash of scandals since 2000. Only outsiders were damaged or ruined. Sure, Citibank was harmed, but only in profit and reputation.

Westerners prefer to look upon MidEast and Latin American strongmen as evidence of a flawed political and economic system. The larger than life posters, some 100 feet high, of men like Allende or Chavez or Morales or Castro or Hussein or Qaddafi or Assad stand as proof that their system is inferior, since their systems are based upon men and not institutions. In the United States, the unfortunate conclusion is that the rule of law in the highest offices and corridors has been compromised. Institutions have become blurred with the USGovt itself. The current and recent economic mythology prevailing within the US system have depended upon men, the maestros, the wizards, and decreasingly upon the institutions. Sadly, the biggest loser has been the stock and bond market, now under severe control by the puppet masters, and no longer worthy of being called free markets. Institutions have become the perpetrators.

The Working Group for Financial Markets (aka Plunge Protection Team) is now openly discussed by the USFed Chairman Bernanke in their activities. Cases in point for institutional transgressions are many. Fort Knox has been gutted of its gold from the Clinton Administration years. Heavy profiteering has been the mainstay with the war on the Halliburton coffers during the Iraqi War. Now the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is likely being abused to aid in energy inventory reports. The SPR was likely also raided last autumn in the energy decline engineered for the elections. Law means much less anymore than sheer power. Tragically, with the advent of mythology has come the rise of men to supercede institutions.



The previous era myths have long been scrapped as drivel. The funny part is that economists still refer to the principles associated with those past nonsensical myths as crucial historical tenets. After discredited, the heretics continue to preach their dead dogma! The Supply Side Myth was a mere cover for a gigantic military defense spending campaign, complete with goofy Phillips Curve and NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate unemployment). These concepts were used to link price inflation to unemployment, and divert attention away from money supply growth. The unsuspecting public gobbled it up like dog food served in high style at haut couture restaurants. These were times marred by officially admitted economic recession, when the leaders and citizenry were eager to latch onto any rope to pull itself out of the quicksand. The moronic Laffer Curve actually purported to anticipate higher tax revenue with higher tax rates, and alternatively to anticipate higher tax revenue with lower tax rates. How absurd! The initiatives proved to cripple the US federal budget, almost doubling the federal debt, lifting it by $2000 billion. That myth was popular in the 1980 decade, dismantled easily, the true Reagan legacy. What is unique about the 1980 decade is the lack of widespread scandals upon the discredit of its myths. When military defense firms are the main beneficiaries, scandals seem never to come to light. Instead, the system endured a vicious Black Monday 1987 stock bust.

The New Economy Myth, dominant in the 1990 decade, was a mere cover for a gigantic speculative boom to justify stock investments in technology and telecomm. The miracle at the time was achieved through productivity, which Greenspan failed to comprehend. Instead of leading to higher profit margins, the system realized lower profits, now documented. The internet achieved a level playing field, more efficient supply chain systems, and lower prices, not higher. This concept proved to be Greenspan’s greatest blind spot, which still plagues him, but without his awareness, or any investment community awareness. They are too busy worshiping him, even though the housing bust and mortgage debacle have his fingerprints all over them. The other major component to this myth was the Strong Dollar policy enforced by then Treasury Secy Rubin. We now know the corrupt underbelly to that initiative was the raid, pillage, and disappearance of most gold in the US Treasury. Being the adept currency and commodity trader, Rubin ensured 1% lease rates which permitted a grandiose gold carry trade. That scheme enabled borrowing gold, selling it, buying USTBonds, and enjoying an enormous decline in interest rates (and bond rally). The name ‘Decade of Prosperity’ is more appropriately labeled the decade of the great gold heist. We were treated to scandals, with Enron, Arthur Anderson, and WorldCom, but the real architect of the Enron scams was JPMorgan. There are advantages to having one’s identify carefully concealed as US Federal Reserve, in that JPMorgan cannot be successful prosecuted or sued. The court decision last month exonerated Wall Street firms of all liability in Enron investor losses. Heck, JPMorgan taught Enron everything they knew on off-shore games and special purpose entities, even executing most trades. The system, just like 1987, was hit by another stock bust in 2000, this one worse than before. Busts are the typical final step to a shattered myth, with silver linings of profound opportunities.


A powerful gold and crude oil rally is soon to be unleashed. The gold push will be unwanted, but demanded by a weak USDollar. The oil push will be secretly ordered. Not only has the Macro Economy Myth been exposed as vaporous, but it has not even been the subject of debate. Three sources have supported the gargantuan US credit appetite in the last several years. The Asian trade surplus recycle has essentially disappeared, without publicity or fanfare. The Persian Gulf petro surplus recycle is going in full bore, under the shroud of accounting diversions, with little attention paid. The USGovt printing press has been turned loose in unprecedented fashion, without the harsh light of tracked M3 Money Supply statistics. Look for a higher crude oil price, like one to hit $80 per barrel, and a higher gold price, like one to hit $750 per ounce, in the coming months. Look for mindboggling creation of new money to come also, under the cover of darkness, to paper over the mortgage bond black hole, to avert associated credit derivative accidents underway. We are in the Weimar Age of modern money. Good prefers light; evil embraces darkness. In full light, the gold rally would be afforded greater tailwind. Even in darkness, gold will thrive since confidence erodes in darkness. Darkness is the constant theme to both the current financial system which manages the USDollar, and to a lot more of the national drumbeats.


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http://goldseek.com/news/GoldenJackass/2007/jack.GIFJim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 24 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com (http://www.goldenjackass.com/) . For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com

mama mia
27.04.2007, 22:40
Gold rises, as dollar falls to a record low vs. euro
June gold fails to recoup the week's loss; silver, copper down on week

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bf0877e71-e7dc-409f-9919-fb4122536c65%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bf0877e71-e7dc-409f-9919-fb4122536c65%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:10 PM ET Apr 27, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed almost $4 higher Friday, boosted by the euro's record high against the dollar after data showed that the U.S. economy posted its weakest expansion in four years in the first quarter.
But the day's gain wasn't enough to recoup the week's losses. The price of the precious metal finished the week with a loss of 2% as traders weighed investment-demand expectations for gold in the wake of U.S. stocks' climb into record territory.
"For several years now, gold has gone through short, but sharp corrections on its march to new all-time highs," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. "The surprise going forward is how fast it rebounds and hits $700."
Gold for June delivery gained $3.80 to close $681.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was down $14 from last Friday's closing level of $695.80.
"A return to $682-$685 is indeed required in order to resume whatever journey we were on prior to this eventful week," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in e-mailed commentary. "Until then, more than a few participants will nervously ponder if this was 'it' or if there is more room to fill some chart points and redraw the lines."
Hit by rising energy prices and a weak housing market, the U.S. economy slowed to 1.3% real annualized growth in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was below the 1.7% expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-economic-growth-slows-13/story.aspx?guid=%7B72F33DC5%2DBEA1%2D4F89%2DB7CA%2D71786DCF08FF%7D)
Following the news, the dollar fell to a record low against the euro, which traded above $1.3680 Friday. The previous record for the euro was $1.3666, reached in December 2004. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-hits-all-time-low-against/story.aspx?guid=%7BA5B7BCF5%2DC66C%2D4B59%2D83EB%2DD249AA2D1EAE%7D)
Indications of slowing growth will pressure the dollar and trigger a rebound in gold, said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients.
On Thursday, gold futures closed down $9.40, or 1.4%, at $678 an ounce, their weakest closing level since April 9.
"Despite the corrections yesterday, gold is still looking poor on the charts and may have to weather further weakness before stabilizing, particularly as further institutional sales are expected," Moore said.
Crude-oil futures climbed past $66 a barrel Friday, taking natural gas along with it as prices for reformulated gasoline hit fresh eight-month highs on concerns about motor-fuel supplies. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-futures-market-their-highest/story.aspx?guid=%7B1692E048%2D8B7D%2D484C%2D9242%2DD3A0DFC68E7C%7D)
Other metals prices gained for the session along with gold, but July platinum gave back $10.60 to end at $1,293 an ounce, down 3.6% for the week.
May silver rose 11.8 cents to finish at $13.443 an ounce, but it was down 3.7% from a week ago. June palladium tacked on $1.05 to close at $374.45 an ounce, up almost $14 for the week. May copper rose 2.65 cents to end at $3.5145 a pound, but it was still down 2.6% for the week.
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks fell by 64 troy ounces to stand at 7.68 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose by 596,372 troy ounces to 130 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell by 868 short tons to 33,925 short tons.

mama mia
28.04.2007, 11:01
Our current position in the gold sector

Jack Chan
www.simplyprofits.org (http://www.simplyprofits.org/)
posted Apr 27, 2007

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan042707/1.gif $HUI - sell signal this week ending the buy signal from mid March.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan042707/2.gif $XAU - sell signal this week ending the buy signal from mid March.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan042707/3.gif GDX - US traders were stopped out for a small profit, stand aside for now.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan042707/4.gif XGD.TO - Canadian traders were stopped out for a breakeven trade. The under performance by the Cdn ETF was mainly due to the strength in the loonie. Stand aside for now.

We were positioned for a third attempt of a major breakout since the correction began in May 2006, and rejected again. We will continue to wait for set ups to buy as long as the gold cycle remains up.

End of update

Apr 25, 2007
Jack Chan - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan042707.html

mama mia
29.04.2007, 18:20
...sind zwar keine PMs - interessant ist es allemal :rolleyes

Base Metals Stockpiles and Prices 2
Just a few years ago, the majority of stock traders were oblivious to the excitement that base metals had to offer commodities stocks. Futures traders hustled and bustled to make a buck in their familiar base metals marketplace, yet not even they were aware of the eruption of capital that would eventually take these markets by storm. Today the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metals exchange, manages over $10 billion of traded contracts each day with well over $2 trillion worth turned over annually. These are numbers that the LME says have increased by tenfold in the last 15 or so years. And it expects another double in the next three to five years.

A major catalyst to this growth stems from our growing global economy that has triggered a massive increase in the demand for industrial metals. These metals are responsible for expanding and renewing the world's physical infrastructure and are integral to the products and machinery that keep the wheels of global commerce greased.

And the demand for these industrial metals, or base metals, should continue to grow for many more years. Since the supplies of these metals are finite, and they are lagging to meet demand, base metals prices have been on a tear in recent years. The physical metals and the stocks of the companies that mine them have greatly rewarded investors and speculators thus far.

Now though it is very probable that the base metals will thrive in a secular bull market for many years to come, prudent traders need to be on top of current market conditions in order to stay ahead of the curve. And a wonderful attribute of the base metals in addition to their solid strategic fundamentals is their tactical and measurable real-time fundamentals.

These fundamentals are found in data that is provided by the LME. And the LME is one of the first places I go to gauge the health of the base metals sector as it is the leader among the global metals exchanges in capturing some of the core fundamentals of the base metals markets.

Not only is the LME the most reliable source for daily base metals prices in the world, but its various other functions are essential for commodities speculators. One such function includes providing the markets for futures and traded-options contracts. Aside from the speculative nature of futures and options, they are essential in mitigating risk allowing both consumers and producers to lock in prices, also known as hedging.

But the major function of the LME that I will focus on today surrounds the physical storage of its traded contracts. Now in order to ensure price convergence, all contracts traded on the LME "assume" physical delivery. Even though only a small percentage of contracts actually result in delivery, this physical realm is very important in the futures markets.

Since hedging and speculation dominate trading in the LME, a majority of contracts are sold or bought back before coming due for settlement. But LME contracts are occasionally redeemed and settled through the redemption of LME warrants. These warrants allow the bearer to obtain lots of a given metal from LME-approved warehouses around the world.

This physical storage is not designed to supersede existing supply chains such as those that exist between refineries and end users. But since global above-ground stockpiles are limited, when physical deliveries do occur to meet excess demand they really help paint a picture of the global supply and demand balance for the base metals. This action ultimately plays a large role in determining the day-to-day metals prices.

Today the 400+ LME-approved warehouses scattered across 13 countries provide critical stock data that not only the LME but traders around the world use to gauge the health of the metals markets. This stock data is published daily by the LME and as you will see in the upcoming charts is very useful as a leading indicator for the price action of the metals.

A couple weeks ago I penned an essay that analyzed the base metals technicals (http://www.zealllc.com/2007/basetech3.htm). Copper, zinc, nickel, lead and aluminum are the primary base metals that pique the interest of equity traders and are the most exciting in the volatile futures markets. Each of these metals is in the midst of its own secular bull market and their technical actions thus far have been simply mind-blowing to witness.

Sans aluminum, each of the base metals has had bull-to-date gains that have well outperformed the precious metals and the majority of the energy complex. Some incredibly strong uplegs have been host to wild parabolic ascents that have taken investors on exciting rides.

But in viewing the technicals it has been hard to establish a semblance of any trading patterns. I believe a large reason for this is the base metals' reactionary nature to the real-time fundamentals of inventory data. Because above-ground stockpiles have crept so low in recent years, speculative risk premiums have been built into the base metals prices. So when there is a swing in the stock data that the LME in particular provides, the markets are quick to react.

Because of this it is worth a visual look at the stock and price charts of the base metals in order to better understand this relationship. In the first edition (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/lmestock.htm) of this base metals stockpiles and prices series that I wrote last year, copper was coming off a near double in the first half of 2006 as its LME-warehoused stock sunk to alarmingly low levels. From early March to its May top, copper rose 83% while copper stock dropped 33% to its early July lows.

Then after a somewhat uneventful price and stock consolidation through October, a near-textbook-perfect inverse correlation started to play out. In less than four months, copper stockpiles nearly doubled while copper corrected sharply shedding a third of its value.

This run had a very strong negative correlation of -0.949 with an r-square of 90%. So 90% of the daily behavior of copper prices could be explained or predicted by the movement of its daily LME stock level. This copper correction had a very impressive inverse correlation with LME copper stock and this correlation has continued into copper's most recent upleg that began in early February.

Since its early February interim bottom, copper has had an impressive rally of 55% to its recent highs. And this has happened in unison with a 24% drop in copper stockpiles. This upleg is sporting a copper-to-stock correlation of -0.956 with an r-square of 91%. Not many fundamental drivers have had such measurable real-time correlations with an underlying asset as copper and many of the base metals do to their LME warehoused stocks.

Aside from these short-term correlations, it is also important to maintain strategic perspective on the stockpile data. Even though a double from 100k to 200k metric tons seems like a major structural change in LME copper stock, it is still historically very low. In 2002 LME copper stock was near the one-million-metric-ton level. So while 100k metric tons seems like a large supply increase in these short-term charts, today's levels are still 80% less than just five years ago. This is all the more impressive considering how much larger the global copper market is now compared to back then.

When looking at stock levels I think it is also important to consider the daily consumable supply above ground. For copper the 170k-metric-ton range puts it at less than four days worth of global copper consumption available. It is no wonder speculative risk premiums exist in copper and the other base metals. Any supply disruption would surely pinch the markets, which is why the recent labor problems at the massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia and many of the huge Chilean copper mines have been getting so much attention.

Shifting to zinc, it had an amazing 2006 run as its LME warehoused stock plunged in sharp linear fashion. A sizeable supply and demand imbalance emerged last year as LME warehouses were pilfered of nearly all the zinc consumers could get their hands on.

In 2006 LME zinc stock dropped an incredible 78%. And from its 2004 high of 780k metric tons, zinc stock has plunged a once-inconceivable 89% to its December lows. With its stock so low, on the order of less than three days of global consumption available, 2006 zinc prices skyrocketed by 142%.

This powerful zinc upleg finally gave up its ghost as zinc stock levels put the brakes on its freefall and began to stabilize toward the end of last year. Though zinc stock levels still remain historically low as they hover around the 100k-metric-ton level, a chunk of the speculative risk premium built into its price while it was freefalling was shaved off the top in quick fashion.

From its November high, zinc corrected by 34% in just 51 trading days to rest in what looks like an uptrending consolidation band near the highs of its early-2006 parabola. I find it amazing that stable zinc stock, no matter how low it is, is able to quickly quell the zinc-stock-to-zero sentiment that speculators built into zinc's price. This just confirms the incredible volatility in the base metals markets which really supports the importance of the hedging function for the end users and some of the weak-stomached producers of these metals.

Now nickel is a base metal that really captures the essence of the value the markets place in LME stock levels. Its supply deficit in recent years has truly been felt by the nickel industry. The warehouses that store LME-approved nickel have seen their inventory levels drop to dangerously low levels. Because of this nickel has truly become a hot commodity. Bull to date the price of nickel has soared over 1,000%!

LME nickel stock below 5k metric tons is equivalent to only about one day worth of global nickel consumption. An above-ground surplus of this small of an amount is just unthinkable. This poses a huge risk on the demand side of things as any increase in consumption will really pinch this market. And the financial markets are fully aware of this dilemma.

In 2006 alone, LME nickel stock fell by 89% prompting a wild nickel rally that saw this metal balloon by a massive 162%. And nickel's fortunes did not stop there with 2007 adding another 60% to recent highs as stockpiles continue to dwindle.

A huge speculative risk premium has been added to the price of nickel as the global nickel shortages continue. This further shows that fundamentals not only shift long-term price action but they can exert immediate and impactful pressure on real-time prices.

As I described in my base metals technicals essay two weeks ago, lead provides yet another example of the fundamental impact stockpiles can have on the technical nature of the metal price. While the other base metals were shedding weight in the warehouses and enjoying strong rallies last spring, lead bucked the trend and took a course of its own.

When you look at an LME lead-stock chart it becomes apparent why this was the case. In the first half of 2006 lead stockpiles actually rose by an impressive 181%. Lead subsequently shed 37% in this timeframe until it hit its interim bottom in June. And of course almost like clockwork, as LME lead stock started to fall the price of lead began to rise.

Since its June low, lead has been one of the strongest-performing base metals in the last ten months. With LME lead stock falling headlong by a whopping 74%, the price of lead has rocketed higher by a very impressive 124%. And though not as strong as copper, lead's inverse correlation through the span of this chart is an impressive -0.898 with an r-square of 81%. With less than two days of global daily consumption available in the warehouses, the markets really must pay attention to stockpile levels.

Aluminum is last but certainly not the least of the base metals. Measured by volume, more aluminum is produced and consumed each year than the previous four base metals combined. It is hard to tell in this short-term chart below, but aluminum has had a nice run since its 2001 low gaining 145% to its high last year.

With LME aluminum stock all over the board in the last year and a half or so, aluminum's price has been relatively stable outside of its May spike last year. Though the supply and demand for aluminum has greatly increased in recent years, there has not been as much of a pinch on the mining-side of things due to its abundance in massive ore bodies around the globe and the scalability of some of the larger mines.

This can be seen in aluminum's price stability amidst swings in its stock levels. Even with a recent 25% rise in stock, aluminum has been very stable in the last six months. As you can see in the chart its price has remained in a tight consolidation band and has not tanked based upon the parallel change in its stock level.

Even though LME aluminum stock levels are down from the 1.4 million-metric-ton range in early 2004, the above-ground supplies of the metal as measured by LME stock are not as alarmingly low as the other metals. Therefore the speculative risk premium attached to the other base metals is not as prevalent in aluminum as seen by its bull-to-date performance and its less responsive behavior to swings in its warehoused stock levels.

Any way you look at it, whether in aluminum or the more supply-pinched copper, zinc, nickel and lead, economics have and always will be the ultimate price driver for these commodities. The LME stock data really helps us to focus in on real-time economic fundamentals in these exciting base metals markets.

So as the global economy continues to grow in order to support its growing population as well as the fast-developing countries of Asia, commodities demand in general should continue to grow. With the dynamics of mining playing such a large role in supplying the markets' demands for the base metals, it should continue to be a wild ride for investors and speculators in the coming years.

And the best way to take part in the base metals bull is to buy the stocks of the companies that are charged with bringing these metals to the markets. The base metals mining stocks have been among the hottest stocks in the stock markets in recent years and have greatly rewarded shareholders thus far.

But this base metals bull market is likely far from over. Probabilities highly favor today still being in the first half of a secular bull market for the base metals that should thrive for another decade or so. Because of this, legendary gains are still likely to be won in the base metals stocks.

At Zeal we have been recommending elite base metals stocks among other commodities stocks to our newsletter subscribers since the beginning of this bull market and have been blessed with some incredible realized and unrealized gains. If you'd like cutting-edge commodities markets analysis and trade recommendations for high-probability-for-success stocks, then please subscribe today (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm) to our monthly newsletter (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm).

Our newsletter subscribers also gain exclusive access to the private charts section of our website. With LME stock data proving to be a very important metric for traders to observe, we recently added high-resolution versions of the charts seen in this essay to our charts section and update them weekly so you may monitor these base metals fundamentals yourself.

The bottom line is the recent inverse correlation between base metals prices and their LME stock levels is proving to be an exceptionally valuable tool for base metals traders to observe. With the tight supply of base metals in today's markets, any swing in stock levels has greatly influenced these metals' price actions.

The fundamental drivers of the base metals bulls are real and measurable with this LME data. And investors and speculators should be able to capitalize on this supply crunch by buying the stocks of the companies that bring the base metals to market. With stockpile levels so low and continued demand growth on the horizon, the base metals miners are poised to be marvelously profitable for years to come.

Scott Wright

April 27, 2007

So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm), that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research as well as provides in-depth market analysis and commentary. Please consider joining us each month at … www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm)

Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at scottq@zealllc.com . Depending on the volume of feedback I may not have time to respond personally, but I will read all messages. Thanks!

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mama mia
29.04.2007, 21:07
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 29h April 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html) / Gold & Silver (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Category6-All.html)

Apr 29, 2007 - 12:20 PM By: Merv_Burak

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/topics/commodities.gif (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html)

Time to start wondering if this is the start of a new bear or just a normal correction after a several week advance. There are analysts on both sides.

That Merv's Composite Index of Precious Metals Indices shown last week must be on to something. The initial reaction from a previous high last week, making a potential double top, accelerated this week. It's still in a “no panic yet” zone but another week or two of this kind of action and who knows?


The long term P&F chart hasn't budget for two weeks now so I'll leave comments on it when something happens.

As for the bar (or candlestick) chart and the normal indicators, the reversal this past week is only a blip on the long term chart. Nothing to worry about – yet. However, one never knows when one of these blips just does not stop and becomes something more serious, so caution is always warranted.

As the chart shows, the action is still taking place well above a positively sloping long term moving average line with a long term momentum indicator that is still in its positive zone. The momentum has stayed positive throughout the past several months of questionable market direction. Since the bottom last October, while the price has had a nice run the momentum has not. It remained positive but only slightly so. The price has been approaching its previous high but the momentum has been far, far below its respective high. This negative divergence warning has to be corrected by either the price reversing or the momentum perking up. It looks like the price may be the one reversing but let's give it a little more time. Although we did have a negative week this action does not yet cause one to turn negative, long term wise. The indicators remain BULLISH.


The recent action is almost in the middle of that long term up trending channel and sitting on top of a positive intermediate term moving average line. The intermediate term momentum indicator is tracing a path similar to the long term indicator, except with a little more up and down volatility. The short/intermediate term channel shown last week has been broken as expected, however this has not yet turned into a reversal intermediate term wise. It has caused one to be very, very cautious for the next while as the weakness could degenerate into something more serious. However, as the indicators are still all positive one remains in the BULLISH camp for the intermediate term but with one eye on the indicators for a possible reversal.



One thing all good momentum indicators do is to give one a warning of a possible turn around in the price direction by a weakening in the indicator ahead of the turn. You can see this in both the short term RSI and aggressive Stochastic Oscillator in the short term chart. As the price was making new highs a week ago both of these momentum indicators were warning that the strength of such price action was diminishing. Diminishing strength in a momentum indicator is always a good warning of a possible end of move or even a reversal of move. As often mentioned, nothing is perfect, so one would not jump to a conclusion but wait for a second confirmation of a turn by a break through the moving average or trend line or other confirmation. BUT one would be on guard for such reversal.

So, where are we heading, short term wise? It looks like the direction of least resistance is to the down side now, despite Friday's action. The action of the past few days has been below the short term moving average line and the line has now turned downwards. On Tuesday gold closed below the lower channel up trend line to confirm the message of the momentum indicator. As suggested last week (in the immediate term section) “watch out if it closes below $688.25”. It did so on Tuesday. Although the short term momentum indicator has been weakening for over a week it only went negative on Thursday but moved back into the positive on Friday. The absolute value is less important than the trend, and the trend is still towards lower levels. For now, the short term must be considered as BEARISH.


As mentioned last week, I'm not keeping track of the performance of the “flip of the coin” but it looks like it's working some times. So, this week what have we? It's the start of a new move, this one towards lower levels. The trend has not been established for any length of time so the coin flip is most important here. With the price below a negative very short term moving average line and the Stochastic Oscillator continuing on its downward path one can only go with a continuation of the trend. With only a few days of down side action it is difficult to determine a resistance trend line but for now the dashed lines are as good as any. These will most likely be revised as more trading action is on the chart. So, for the next couple of days the best guess would be a continuation of the down trend.

I'm not a futures trader nor a commodities expert but having followed the gold futures over many years one could do a lot worse than trade the futures according to the 8 day weighted moving average line shown in these short term charts. By using the turn around in the slope of the moving average line one is usually in during the major part of most moves, getting in early and out early (see arrows in the chart). Making use of the momentum indicators and one might have a good simple trading method here.



Here we are with the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index. Since the Index was revised to include US stocks and foreign stocks traded on the US markets there doesn't seem to be any great difference in the Index performance versus the other major Indices. It does appear to be a little weaker than the other majors, however. The major gold Indices, such as the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index, seem to be unsure where they want to go. They are weaker than gold itself but not so weak that they are going in a different direction. The recent action in this Index has been below its moving average lines and it might be telling us that more down side is still ahead. The long term momentum indicator is once more sitting on top of its neutral line. It dropped below the line twice in the past 11 months (June and October) but quickly recovered with the price going into a rally mode. Will it do so again? I doubt it. If the momentum drops below the neutral line this time I am inclined to think it will stay there for an extended period, but that remains to be seen. In the end these major Indices are a reflection of what the few very large gold stocks are up to and not necessarily what the gold stocks in general are doing. For that, see the Merv's Indices.


This has been a bad week for precious metal (gold & silver) stocks. The overall Composite of Precious Metals Indices declined 2.9% on the week. As mentioned earlier, the Composite Index hit a ceiling from its high of May 2006 and is now reacting lower. Unless the direction changes this has the makings of a double top pattern.


The top 100 North American traded stocks (in market value) along with 60 additional speculative stocks make up this Index. It represents the universe of precious metals stocks and is probably the best Index to understand what is happening to the overall precious metals stocks.

The Index declined 3.2% on the week, a little more than the Composite Index but that's the way it goes. The % decline does not tell the full story. There were almost 4 times as many declining stocks during the week as there were advancing stocks (76% decline, 20% advance). It was almost a slaughter. One good point was that the decliners were, in general, quite mild. There were no stocks in my plus/minus over 30% weekly performance category and only one in the over 20% range, and that one was a gainer. The decline has taken its toll on the ratings for the component stocks. Summing up the individual ratings, they all moved lower during the week. We are now at a 52% BEAR for the short term, NEUTRAL for the intermediate term and 63% BULL for the long term.

As for the normal indicators, they have changed very little during the week but all have deteriorated somewhat, as could be expected. The Index is still above its positive intermediate and long term moving average lines and the momentum indicators are still in their positive zone. For now there is still no worry about an imminent collapse of the gold stocks but one should never be too sure.


This is probably the only place that you will find Sector Indices for gold stocks. I have taken the universe stocks and developed three sectors to represent the performances of the top quality stocks, the secondary stocks and the out and out gambling stocks. Each Index has 30 component stocks Whatever the overall universe might be doing it is here that you will understand which sector of the gold stocks are the ones moving, or not.

Last week we had a generally weak market with only the Gamb-Gold Index gaining during the week. This week all three sectors declined. The declines were what one might expect, the highest quality declining the least and the gambling stocks declining the most, although by only a fraction of a %. The Qual-Gold declined 2.7%, the Spec-Gold declined 2.8% and the Gamb-Gold declined 3.2%. This week's decline has taken the Qual-Gold Index below its previous May 2006 high level by 1.9%. The Spec-Gold Index is still 5.3% above its May 2006 high while the Gamb-Gold Index is still 19.7% above its May 2006 high. This is versus all of the major Indices still, on the average, 9.0% below their May 2006 highs.

As for the indicators, with a few exceptions the Indices are still above their positively sloping intermediate and long term moving average lines and their momentum indicators are in their positive zone. As for the exceptions, the Qual-Gold Index is now below its intermediate term moving average line and its intermediate term momentum is almost ready to drop below its neutral line. On the other hand the Gamb-Gold intermediate term momentum has been quite strong and inside its overbought zone. It has now moved below the overbought line for a trend reversal warning.


Silver seems to be a metal that sometimes moves to its own drummer. For this reason I have developed two silver Indices, the Qual-Silver Index with 10 stocks represents the higher quality end of the silver stock spectrum while the Spec-Silver Index includes a mixture of everything else. For some time the silver sector had been acting superior to the actions of gold. Lately, however, silver seems to have lost some of its luster and is putting in a worse performance that that of gold. Noticeable is the action during April. The turn in gold this week was from a level higher than the previous top in February while the turn in silver was from a level considerably below its February top.



With the two silver sector Indices we have a reversal of the performance versus the gold sectors. Recently, the Qual-Silver has been out performing the Spec-Silver Index. This can be seen by the fact that although both are still above their May 2006 highs the Qual is 6.9% higher while the Spec is only 1.8% above the previous high. Both Indices are still above their intermediate and long term moving averages but in the case of the intermediate term, just barely above. The momentum indicators for both Indices are also still in their positive zones. Although the Indices seem to be getting weaker and weaker they are still in their BULLISH camp, but only slightly so. Any more decline and they risk turning bearish, especially on the intermediate term.



Well, that's it for this week.

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central

Web: www.themarkettraders.com (http://www.themarkettraders.com/)
e-mail: merv@themarkettraders.com

mama mia
30.04.2007, 22:14
DJ PRECIOUS METALS: NY Gold Sideways But Helped By Soft Dollar
By Allen Sykora


Gold futures managed a modest gain Monday as the euro remained near last
week's record highs against the U.S. dollar, analysts said.

Overall, however, gold and other precious metals were largely sideways in
quiet trading conditions. New York gold, silver, platinum and palladium all
posted "inside days," in which their highs and lows were contained within
Friday's trading ranges.

June gold rose $1.70 to $683.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange. As pit trade was closing, the June contract at the
Chicago Board of Trade was up $1.50 to $683.50.

Comex July silver was unchanged at $13.575. As it was closing, CBOT July
silver was up 1.3 cents to $13.585.

Activity was subdued on the day of a holiday in Japan, plus ahead of May Day
holidays in much of Europe, said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals
with Scotia Mocatta.

In open-outcry trading, June gold was confined to an unusually narrow range
of $4.20.

"The dollar remains on the weaker side, the Dow Jones (industrials) remain
above 13,000 and oil is pretty close to unchanged although down 20 cents (as
gold was closing). So all of that remains pretty bullish for the gold price,"
said Hunter.

"Yet, gold is still working from an overbought condition from earlier last
week and the end of the week before that."

Back then, the metal was threatening $700 before getting turned back in the

"The positive fundamentals are at least allowing gold to consolidate without
too much outside interference," said Hunter. "The danger is that one of those
fundamentals starts to turn gold negative."

The yellow metal was especially quiet during the last couple of hours of New
York trade, said analysts with MKS Finance in a research note.

"We continue to believe that gold could be vulnerable to further correction
if the $670 level (basis spot) fails to hold," they wrote. "On the other hand,
we would need some more positive sentiment from the market players in order to
breach the resistance around $681-$682 levels, followed by $690."

The euro got as high as $1.3679 against the dollar, stopping just shy of last
week's record $1.3683, according to one price vendor.

On the U.S. economic front, personal income rose 0.7% in March, topping the
consensus forecast of 0.6%. However, spending rose just 0.3%, falling short of
the 0.5% forecast.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell in April to 52.9 from 61.7 in
March. The decline exceeded the consensus forecast, in which economists were
looking for a 54.

One other U.S. report showed that March construction spending rose 0.2% in
March, when the forecast had been for a 0.3% gain.

U.S. economic reports set for Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) include the
Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, forecast to be 51.0 in
April after a 50.9 reading in March, and pending-home sales. An hour later,
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to address free trade at an
economic-development summit in Butte, Mont.

Meanwhile, July platinum rose $5.40 to $1,298.40 an ounce, while June
palladium dipped 45 cents to $374.

"We saw them pretty much sideways," said one trader. July platinum had a
pit-session range of just $6 and palladium of just $3.

The dollar gave up some of its initial strength, and this contributed to a
"bump up" in platinum, the trader said.

The trader reports that the PGMs could be quiet in the coming days due to May
Day holidays in much of the world Tuesday and several market closings in China
and Japan over the next week.

Settlements (includes open-outcry and electronic trading):
London PM Gold Fix: $677 versus $677.50 Friday
Spot gold at 1:31 p.m. ET: $680.75, down 20 cents from previous day; Range:
June gold (GCM07) $683.50, up $1.70; Range $678.80-$684.90
July silver (SIN07) $13.575, unchanged; Range $13.525-$13.685
July platinum (PLN07) $1,298.40, up $5.40; Range $1,290.10-$1,300
June palladium (PAM07) $374, down 45 cents; Range $370.10-$375.50

-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-30-07 1417ET

mama mia
01.05.2007, 22:07

Gold down $6; copper prices end at one-week high

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B6def21a3-2941-466f-b75c-e9fff1e47463%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B6def21a3-2941-466f-b75c-e9fff1e47463%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:11 PM ET May 1, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Tuesday with a loss of more than $6 an ounce, with some strength in the U.S. dollar and weakness in oil prices easing investment demand for the precious metal.
The market saw "technical selling and some disappointment [that] gold could not test $700," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, in e-mailed comments. "Since the $665-$670 area was key resistance until recently, a retest of that area is healthy and likely the foundation gold needs to go through $700 later this spring."
But copper futures climbed to their highest level in a week as a labor strike in Peru continued to threaten metals production.
Peru's National Federal of Mining, Metallurgy and Steel Workers said that the national strike, which started this week, will continue if there is no agreement with the government on demands made by mining-sector workers, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Peru is the world's third-largest producer of copper and zinc.
Against this backdrop, July copper closed at $3.6345 a pound, up 2.2%, or 7.8 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday. That marked the contract's highest closing level since April 23.
Meanwhile, gold for June delivery declined $6.20 to close at $677.30 an ounce. It hasn't closed at a level this low since April 9, but the day's low of $674.70 was the weakest intraday level since Thursday.
The metals market saw thin trading Tuesday with markets in China and most of Europe closed for holidays. On Monday, gold futures closed up $1.70 at $683.50 an ounce, boosted by strength in copper prices as well as weakness in the dollar.
Overall, "technicals have been turning sour despite up-to-now reasonable fundamentals for bullion to have made its long-heralded assault to higher prices," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in afternoon commentary. "Higher levels remain, for the moment, seen as exit opportunities, not the stepladder rest-stops to new records."
Looking ahead, "the dollar is likely to be the key driver for gold in the coming sessions with a break through $1.37 against the euro potentially propelling gold back toward the $694 resistance line," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"However, there is the risk that further failed rallies will trigger another correction, potentially leading to a test of chart support located around $664-$669," Moore said in a note to clients.
The dollar rose across-the-board Tuesday, reversing early losses after a report showed U.S. factory activity improved to an 11-month high in April, easing some concerns over the fragile U.S. economic expansion. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-rebounds-strong-manufacturing-report/story.aspx?guid=%7B1B92933A%2D33A6%2D4E2D%2DA530%2D3974DFE4BC29%7D)
U.S. factory activity improved in April after seven weak months, easing fears about the fragile economic expansion. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 54.7% in April from 50.9% in March, the private trade group reported Tuesday. It's the highest since 54.7% in May 2006. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/ism-factory-index-rises-1-year/story.aspx?guid=%7B8F1B60DA%2DFCE8%2D4384%2DB626%2D3288F8117E72%7D)
Meanwhile, pending sales of U.S. homes fell by 4.9% in March, indicating sales closed in April are likely to remain soft, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-pending-home-sales-fell/story.aspx?guid=%7BD58424BF%2DF2AA%2D4F7C%2D8EDB%2DADA83239B5E7%7D)
On Friday, the dollar had fallen to an all-time low against the euro at $1.3682, after a government report showed the U.S. economy slowed to a real annualized growth rate of 1.3% in the first quarter, marking the weakest expansion in four years.
Elsewhere, crude-oil futures fell Tuesday, extending their prior-day decline ahead of the release of weekly data on supplies Wednesday that's expected to show a modest build in crude stocks. But news that Venezuela's government took over the country's last privately run oil fields provide support. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-turn-lower-traders-weigh/story.aspx?guid=%7B6082F1BD%2D489E%2D47A2%2D9E0A%2D8FF19EB5BA9A%7D)
Back on the metals market, prices finished the session on a mixed note. June palladium added 15 cents to close at $374.15 an ounce while July platinum added $2.50 to close at $1,300.90 an ounce.
July silver followed gold lower to finish at $13.37 an ounce, down 1.5%, or 20.5 cents.
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories were unchanged at 7.6 million troy ounces as of late Monday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose by 674,771 troy ounces to 131.38 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell by 546 short tons to 33,149 short tons.

mama mia
01.05.2007, 22:09
METALS REVIEW - April 26, 2007
Metal Review

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
May 1, 2007

(Excerpt from April 26, 2007 PIVOTAL EVENTS)

Base Metal Prices

The April 11 ChartWorks on copper outlined that a number of technical readings were at the "bling" level. The one we liked is the "Sequential Sell" pattern which is a nice way to conclude a rally - particularly as the January low concluded the opposite; the "Sequential Buy" pattern.

As noted, copper's reversal was "right around the corner". So far the LME high has been 364.6 last Friday, which compares to the 407 reached on May 11, 2006.

With this our index (less nickel) made it to 760 on Tuesday which is a gain of 31 percent since the urgent selling in January drove it down to 581. On the same move nickel soared 60 percent from 32,800 to 52,370 on April 5. As the saying goes "not too shabby".

Aluminum rallied from 2700 in February to 2865, which compares to the high of 2950 made in January, and 3275 in May, 2006.

Zinc has rallied 25 percent from 3045 in early February to 3810 on Monday. This high compares to 4600 made in November.

From 1574 in January, lead gained 30 percent to 2045 on April 11. It has since slipped a little, but not enough to threaten the up trend.

Tin has been enjoying one of the biggest rallies in a hundred years.

TIN FIVE BIG ONES (Adjusted by PPI) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050107/1.gif Of course it is not yet known if the 14,590 is the peak for tin until further deterioration occurs. But in the meantime the gain at 223 percent is the biggest and it prompts one to wonder about such things. When it comes to profits for too many even the most outstanding gains are not enough. On the other hand, most are completely satisfied that they, personally, have sufficient common sense.

So much so that some more from someone else is often ignored.

By the same PPI calculation nickel is up 787 percent and the key now is that the final leg of bull markets for stocks and base metals (copper proxy) run against some 12 to 16 months of treasury curve inversion before completing.

April is Month 14 on that count and the hottest base metals are overdone in a big way.

The mining stock index (SPTMN) is at momentum levels that usually end rallies. Furthermore, the weekly RSI is showing a negative divergence against last week's high.

On the near term, Comex copper accomplished an outside reversal to the downside on Tuesday and has declined since. It is interesting when impetuosity exhausts itself and falls in one day. That's either up or down and while such reversals don't necessarily reverse a trend they are symptomatic of excesses.

Also, the big plays in nickel and tin seem to be faltering with Ni down 7 percent from 52,370 on April 5 to 48,600 today. The past two days accounts for a 6 percent drop.

Tin has dropped 7.8 percent from 14,695 on April 17 to today's 13,545.

Both were highly promoted so the set back along with what has been outlined above is interesting.

Producers can continue to sell further out and investors can increase the rate of selling base metal mining stocks.


Our concerns last week were based upon gold bugs, and the possibility of the dollar index finding stability as base metal prices started a seasonal decline.

This along with the possibility of silver beginning to underperform gold seems to be working out.

The gold correction could be modest and the next rally could be based upon changes in the financial markets. These are essential for a fundamental bull market in gold and include falling short-dated interest rates. T Bills have declined from 5.18 % on February 23 to this morning's new low at 4.94 %.

With this the treasury curve should changing from inverted to steepening. This has had a modest start.

The other essential change would be widening of credit spreads and in most sectors complacency is rampant.

However, it is worth emphasizing that gold's real price typically sets a cyclical low as the bull market for stocks and base metals sets a cyclical peak. In this regard our gold/commodities index, which was at 255 as the boom launched in mid 2003, suffered a relentless decline to 152. This represents not just a drop in purchasing power, but a proportionate decline in gold mining profit margins.

Our index set the low of 152 on April 5, recovered to 158 in mid-month and then hit 152 on Tuesday. Yesterday's post was 155, and going through 160 would establish a short-term recovery.

If accompanied by significant changes in the credit markets this could be the start of a cyclical bull market for the gold sector, from big caps to small caps.

Investors should be accumulating the sector on weakness.

Gold/Silver Ratio

Historically the ratio has a tendency to move with credit conditions - down during a boom and up on the contraction.

With the last regrettable example of the latter the ratio went from 52 in 1Q 2000 to 82 in mid 2003.

The key low close has been 46.8 on February 23 from which it recovered to 51.3 on March 5. Since, it came in to 48.7 on April 10 and then stayed around 49.5 for the past week.

The rise that began on February 23 along with the drop in bill rates led the China correction by a few trading days.

In the past week the ratio has increased from 49.2 to today's 50.8 as the bill yield has declined from 5.99 % to 4.94 %, which is beginning to suggest market exuberance is becoming vulnerable.

The gold/silver ratio rising above 51 would indicate diminishing speculative abilities in the stock and base metal markets.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050107/2.gif -Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com (http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/)

METALS REVIEW - April 26, 2007 - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye050107.html

mama mia
02.05.2007, 19:08
Gold Forecaster - Global Watch
Part 1: Gold Price Manipulation - Gold Forecaster Speaks.

Julian D.W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster snippet
May 2, 2007

- Below is a snippet from the latest weekly issue from www.GoldForecaster.com (http://www.goldforecaster.com/)

This article is in two parts. The first looks at the decades' long manipulation of the gold price and the second looks at why this will end with gold returning to its monetary role at much higher prices.

When coming off the Gold Standard it was found that Britain could not cover its gold obligations, despite its own major source of new gold in South Africa. The paper it issued was far in excess of its gold's ability to cover its promises. This was made so clear, simply by the amount of gold it held. Britain's behavior in those days set the trend for subsequent monetary duplicity until now.

In 1933, with the horizon darkening as the prospects for another world war grew, the U.S. realized that the U.S. $ would not serve its role outside the U.S.A. Gold was the only accepted international currency available in wartime conditions, so the U.S. decided to fill its war chest with its own citizens' gold. It passed a law requiring that they sell their gold at $20 an ounce, an act that was to result in the greatest manipulation of gold ever seen, because two years later they devalued the $ down to $35 per ounce of gold. These were the days when governments wanted gold to be a global currency.
But that was not all, they did not devalue the $ in terms of other currencies, allowing gold dealers to arbitrage between the States and the rest of the world by buying gold at the low prices in Europe and elsewhere, while prices remained at pre-devaluation prices, then selling that gold into the States at a 75% profit in the $. These $' were then converted at the fixed exchange rates confirming the profits made. The overall effect was the States acquired over 26,000 tonnes of gold, a gold price manipulation of international proportions, but one aimed at giving real monetary power to the U.S. in the days of war.
In 1968 the $ was devalued again to take it to $42.35 an ounce in the hope of stemming the pressure against the $, which was being over issued and sent abroad [where it was described as Eurodollars]. But the Europeans didn't buy this, at first, and used the "gold window" to get rid of these $' selling it for U.S. gold. Again this was permitted by the U.S. in an attempt to restore credibility to the power of the U.S.$. But this failed and gold rose to $850 an ounce.
So right through until then, governments used gold to give credibility to paper currencies as gold gave them a 'last resort' payment means. But gold is a measurable item that cannot be subject to the abuse of governments when they over issue. The U.S. realized they did not want to be limited by gold and could not develop ways to use gold as a flexible backer of their currency. Gold kept highlighting the dropping value of the U.S.$ and the failings of the issuers and they didn't like it. It was a precise mirror, showing up this behavior. So what could they do? With the growth of the world roaring away in the 60's and 70's and the ambitions of the U.S. at their height, gold had to be defeated, removed form its judgmental position, because the U.S. wanted to use their dominance of the political, financial and monetary global scene to their benefit.

They were not prepared to see gold as a challenge to the growth of the $' influence over the global economy. This growth was going to confirm U.S. global dominance. And gold got in the way. Gold had to be put in its place, but not sacrificed. After all, even today the U.S. has over 8,000 tonnes of gold in its vault, so we are told, certainly a strong statement of the belief in gold by the U.S. authorities. The States holds gold as insurance against bad times. They are not going to sell it.

The first step against gold [in the seventies] was to enhance the credibility of the $ in the face of its flooding over into the rest of the world. Brilliantly, it was made the only currency in which oil was paid for, so giving it the needed ingredients for an acceptable global reserve currency. After all who didn't need oil?

The second step was to manipulate the gold price downward so it lost its credibility as the money of last resort a place the $ wanted to take. The first steps were to sell it in such large quantities that its price fell dramatically and it became volatile.

1) First the U.S. held auctions of large quantities of gold, but the demand for this gold was overwhelming, so that didn't work. Have no doubt in your minds that this was a blatant attempt to manipulate the gold price down. It was the first in a series of manipulative moves against gold.
2) The next step in the downward manipulation of the gold price was to make the I.M.F. sell other peoples' gold in the same manner as the U.S. did, announcing the sales well in advance, to ensure the greatest downward pressure on the price. This again did not work very well because of overwhelming demand and those sales also stopped, without achieving this target.
3) This attack on gold was not convincing as the selling bodies retained the greater bulk of their gold, with no intention of selling it.
4) A new way was found to discredit gold by a rising number of Central Banks [supportive of the intentions of the $] fully aware of the importance of ensuring the paper currency world was not threatened by gold. This was to loan gold out to gold mining companies that needed to finance gold production. These gold loans allowed producers to sell this borrowed gold into the forward market at high prices at a time when the price of gold was falling and collecting the 'contango' - the higher price for gold as it also contained an interest payment. Then with these proceeds financing their mining operations they had few complaints. It accelerated the production of gold at a time when it should have been dropping in line with the falling price, while allowing mines to profit from past high prices. The volume of gold to reach the market rose dramatically as these moves did accelerate production. This was blatant interference and manipulation of the gold price and the market for gold and led to the price of gold dropping from its peak of $850 down to the low price of $276, at which price Britain sold its gold.
5) Today we are in the eighth year of the Central Banks Gold Agreement in which they set the 'ceiling' of gold bullion sales. This is an attempt to manage the sales in a transparent manner. But it has turned from aggressive overhang of gold in the market place [with the persistent threat of government sales] to a tamed set of sales which are almost encouraging the gold price to rise, but without the volatile 'spikes' as seen in the past. But this is a form of manipulation that is waning. As such it almost encourages gold purchases, which are starting to be seen even amongst Central Banks.

The entire nearly 30 years has been a campaign of gold price manipulation to the downside. We have no hesitation in saying that the gold market has been subject to a decades' long campaign not only to discredit it, but to manipulate it completely. But a change is coming.

Please subscribe to www.GoldForecaster.com (http://www.goldforecaster.com/) for the entire report.

May 1, 2007
-Julian D.W. Phillips - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips050207.html

mama mia
02.05.2007, 21:51
Gold closes lower as oil retreats, dollar gains

By Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B44bf3a74-783f-4306-821c-5f852522dc40%7D&siteid=mktw) & Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B44bf3a74-783f-4306-821c-5f852522dc40%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:15 PM ET May 2, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Wednesday, dipping to a one-month low in intraday trading, as retreating crude-oil prices and gains in the U.S. dollar weighed on the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery closed down $2.20 at $675.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, gold futures declined $6.20 to close at $677.30 an ounce.
"Whereas gold did not appear to pay attention to the declining dollar versus euro situation most of last week, the gains that the greenback is now recording against the same currency are painfully etched into each dollar of decline in the metals' values," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, said in e-mailed commentary.
Gold prices recovered a bit from the day's lowest level Wednesday. The June contract had dipped to $670 during the session, the contract's weakest intraday level since April 3.
"Thirty dollars have been wiped off the gold chart in a relatively brief period," Nadler said, referring to the metal's recent losses. "Consolidation is no longer the operative word; we have had a full-on correction here."
The dollar extended its prior-session gains Wednesday, touching a two-month peak against the yen, as traders continued to react to a stronger-than-expected manufacturing report released on Tuesday. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-hits-two-month-high-vs/story.aspx?guid=%7BCAE21642%2D9526%2D494D%2DA603%2D6857093C63E8%7D)
Crude-oil futures fell under $64 a barrel Wednesday as traders digested a second-weekly increase in U.S. crude supplies. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/oil-falls-near-2-week-low/story.aspx?guid=%7B20072243%2DC02F%2D4264%2DA1FE%2DABFBF7CB2EA6%7D)
Blanchard and Co., the largest retailer of American coins and precious metals in the U.S., said in a statement Wednesday that there has been a big sell-off in central bank gold reserves in recent weeks.
"The gold market has absorbed 89 tons of ECB sales over the last seven weeks, including 12.3 tons last week alone," said Donald W. Doyle, Jr., chairman and CEO of Blanchard, in a statement.
"Considering that central banks sold 112 tons into the market over the last six months, gold has performed remarkably well in light of this huge additional supply," Doyle said.
Other metals prices were mixed. July silver ended down 3.5 cents at $13.335 an ounce, July platinum fell $1.80 at $1,299.10 an ounce, while June palladium closed up 80 cents at $374.95 an ounce.
July copper closed up 1 cent at $3.6445 a pound. The contract gained 2.2% on Tuesday as a strike in Peru continued to threaten production.
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories rose by 21,448 troy ounces to stand at 7.6 million troy ounces as of late Tuesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell by 44,534 troy ounces to 131.3 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell by 78 short tons to 33,071 short tons.
Indexes tracking the performance of stocks in the metals and mining sector moved higher as gold prices recovered from Wednesday's worst level.

mama mia
03.05.2007, 20:41


JOHN: You know, one of the phenomena too on the part of gold investors is they understand the purpose of gold, and it's very rare that they sell it, they just continue to accumulate it and then they sit on it. They understand the concept of asset preservation.

JIM: Yeah. During a bull market, they buy gold; in a bear market, they buy less gold. You know, John, since 1965, there were only three years that gold investors were net sellers of gold. And that was in 1970, in 1972 and 1995. But outside of those three years, if we take a look, out of the last 42 years, there have only been three years in that entire period of time that gold investors were net sellers. So that should tell you a very important characteristic, and this is followed up by what's happening in India today too, so gold investors realize what it is they own, which means that he that owns the gold has the power, and the economic wealth. That’s because gold investors don't sell. And that's why if you're not getting in this gold bull market now, if you're not accumulating now, if you're not buying bullion now, if you're not buying gold shares, now, John, you're going to miss out on this, I know that like for example, when we buy through thick or then, we are long term investors we put the gold away in the vault; bullion that we buy, we put it in the vault, we don't sell. And we know that production has fallen; and one of the key drivers of the gold bull market is investment demand. It's not fabrication demand. [41:37]

JOHN: Every once in a while there's a real sobering comment that somebody makes and when you and Jeff Christian were talking in the interview of the second hour of the program today where Jeff made the comment that for the first time in history, the investors actually owned more gold than the central banks – that was a real wake up type of moment.

JIM: Sure and that threshold, John, was in 2005 when as a result of central bank selling and the continuous purchasing – remember investors bought almost 47 million ounces of gold in 2005, investors over took central banks as the largest owners of gold in the world. And, keeping in mind that point that gold investors rarely sell, so what does that tell you about the availability of gold for those that want to get in the gold market and where prices are going? Central banks have been selling their gold at incredibly cheap prices, for example, the Bank of England selling the gold in 1999 and they are basically looking pretty stupid at this time. In the effort to suppress the price of gold, they have failed and they have had to sell ever increasing amounts of gold.

And I think that a couple of things have happened. Number one, they don't have as much to sell anymore, so they are losing control. So the only thing that they can do today is to sell. Another important a way of trying to keep prices is through the paper market through gold derivatives. But what is happening here (as a very important supply factor) has been central banks selling gold is disappearing. It's not as important a source of supply; and that source of supply is drying up – and that, I think, is a rather significant point. The fact that investors own more than central banks, central banks have less gold to sell and that source of supply is drying up, as a central banker with the price of gold rising, they realize that the end game is near; they are losing control over this. And this is one of the things that the CFR, the Benn Steil article on the CFR website is talking about the rise of private gold banks – and I think that is another significant trend. [43:53

Den Rest hier


gruss wm

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1038364#post1038364)

mama mia
03.05.2007, 22:29
Gold Gains for First Day This Week on Supply Drop; Silver Rises
By Claudia Carpenter

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold gained for the first time this week after Gold Fields Ltd., the world's fourth-biggest producer of the metal, said output declined at seven of its eight mines. Silver also increased.

The Johannesburg-based company said today that its third- quarter production dropped 3 percent. Gold prices climbed 23 percent last year as global mine supply fell to a 10-year low, according to London-based GFMS Ltd.

``If there is reduced supply, there will be more interest in gold,'' said Anil Sharma, a trader in equity sales in London at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. ``The price would appreciate.''

Gold for immediate delivery rose $2.20, or 0.3 percent, to $675.35 an ounce at noon in London, after declining $8.40 in the first three days of this week. Silver rose 11 cents to $13.325 an ounce, its first gain this week.

Bullion is benefiting from dwindling supply and ``incredibly strong'' demand from China, Gold Fields Chief Executive Officer Ian Cockerill told reporters today. Prices should climb above $800 over the next year, he said.

Rising incomes helped China to become the second-biggest manufacturer of gold products including jewelry last year, overtaking Italy, according to a report last month by GFMS. India was the biggest fabricator.

Barrick Gold Corp. is the world's largest gold producer, followed by Newmont Mining Corp. and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.

Prices had declined earlier this week as the dollar gained against the euro and holidays in Japan and China slowed demand.

``There is some speculation on possible gold demand from jewelers,'' Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Peter Fertig said in a report today. ``Some argue that demand might rise after the end of the golden holiday week in Asia as lower prices could trigger buying.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: May 3, 2007 07:10 EDT - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aoyxzh47lxU4&refer=commodities

mama mia
04.05.2007, 09:42
Gold Market Outlook - how far is down?

Peter Degraaf
May 3, 2007

While it is next to impossible to pick the exact tops and bottoms, there are some signs we can look for to help us position ourselves to buy into weakness, and do some selling into strength.

In view of the fact that the fundamentals for gold remain very bullish, (growing demand - diminishing supply), we do not need to let corrections bother us, for they will afford us with many opportunities to 'add-on', for a number of years to come.

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/degraaf/degraaf050307/Chart%201.gif Featured is the HUI index of unhedged mining stocks. I expect the first clue that the metals and mining stocks are ready to turn back up, to come from this index. The red arrows are targets which may or may not be hit, they are simply 'targets'.

The black lines are 'top to bottom' ranges. 'A' measures 75 mm; 'B' = 60 mm; 'C' = 38 mm; 'D' = 33 mm. In the event that 'E' stops at the 330 target (right at the 200DMA), the 'top to bottom' range will be 26 mm, and if 'E' does not stop until 320, the range will be 30 mm. The positive progression in the 'top to bottom' ranges from A to D, causes me to expect a bottom fairly soon, with the 'top to bottom' range for 'E' to be less than 'D' or less than 33 mm.

Since I am not pretending to be God (who alone does know the future), here is what I will be looking for, at or near those two red arrow targets at 320 and 330, to tell me that the HUI is turning back up again.

1. Two successive closes above the high point in the range of the previous day. Or
2. An 'upside reversal' (price first goes below the low of the previous day, but closes above the close of the previous day).

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/degraaf/degraaf050307/chart%202.gif Here is another look at the same chart. Notice the blue dashed uptrend line which is carving out a positive Advancing Right Angled Triangle.

Here also, these red arrows are targets that are now close to being hit.

The purple down-trending line indicates short-term resistance. Once we see two positive closes to the right of that line, we can be fairly sure that the next up-cycle is underway.

ARAT's most often break out on the upside, especially so the closer we come to the apex. The breakout at 370 will likely be powerful. Patience is all we need in the interim.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/degraaf/degraaf050307/chart%203.gif Featured is the US dollar index. For the past four months the green 'speed lines' have contained the slide. The three 'confirming indicators' (blue dashed lines), are telling us (by 'non-confirming), that we should expect a few days (weeks?) of a rise in this index, which will likely prevent the metals from rising until this index nears the target at 82.50 (blue arrow).

Happy trading!

Peter Degraaf
email: itiswell@cogeco.ca


mama mia
05.05.2007, 07:57

Gold futures close near $690, up over 1% on week
Weak jobs-growth data spur retreat in the U.S. dollar; silver, copper eyed

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bfbab616a-a543-4af4-a2cb-849f685f57fe%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bfbab616a-a543-4af4-a2cb-849f685f57fe%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:13 PM ET May 4, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed near $690 an ounce Friday to mark their strongest finish in nearly two weeks as the U.S. dollar fell against major currencies in the wake of data that showed the smallest increase in payroll employment since November 2004.
"The U.S. dollar's weakness remains the focal point," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com, in e-mailed comments. "Gold will push up against the $700 resistance and either see another rally fizzle or see a large wave of momentum kick in and take this market much higher."
Still, Spina said the outlook is unclear. "I am unable to foresee which route we are headed as the bears and bulls struggle to get the upper hand."
For now, "the market remains firm on pullbacks, so the inevitable break of $700 is just a question of when," he said.
Gold for June delivery gained $5.30 to close at $689.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest closing level since April 23. On Thursday, gold futures gained $9.30, the benchmark contract is up $7.90, or 1.2%, for the week.
"Look for continued strength as the day wears on, but keep a keen eye on next week as all market participants will be back in full force and as the Fed watching gets under way," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. The Federal Reserve will meet Wednesday.
"A test, if it comes, of the $695 area [for gold] may succeed this time around," said Nadler, in e-mailed commentary.
Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard, pointed out that "investment demand is still increasing in each successive quarter while producers are ramping up de-hedging and mine supply is continuing to slump."
So "while we haven't yet achieved the $700 level, each pull back we've experienced in the last two months has created a higher floor price," he said in e-mailed comments. "Now it's time to make the higher highs."
Dollar move
The dollar's weakness contributed to gold's latest rise. The greenback edged lower after the Labor Department said that non-farm payrolls expanded by 88,000 in April, less than the 100,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-jobs-growth-sluggish-april/story.aspx?guid=%7BC9477634%2D5666%2D4A8D%2D9342%2D7FFBF5B6E1E6%7D)
The euro was last up 0.3%, while the dollar was down 0.2% vs. the yen. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-drops-weaker-than-expected-april-jobs/story.aspx?guid=%7B17BFDF34%2DCF63%2D4C83%2D9620%2D6652BBF8F5C6%7D)
"Earlier speculation that U.S. jobs growth may reveal the weakest number in some 24 months, became a stark reality," said Nadler. "This news further undercut the dollar and extended expectations that next week's Fed meeting will result in (at least) a continuation of the thus far neutral stance on dollar rates that it had to adopt due to the conundrum posed by rising inflation and sluggish growth (in certain sectors of the economy)."
So "gold once more became a bet to the long side for funds (if not quite yet for the individual investor who may seek a validation of above $695 to join the party)," he said. "Spot bullion rose by $4.50 as soon as the news hit the wires."
Platinum and palladium moved higher along with gold. July platinum rose 1.4%, or $18, to close at $1,328.80 an ounce -- up 2.8% for the week. June palladium added 50 cents to end at $377 an ounce, up 0.7% for the week.
Silver, copper focus
Silver and copper also strengthened, with copper posting another sizable gain for the week.
July copper tapped a contract high, rising 0.9%, or 3.2 cents, to close at $3.7585 a pound after a high of $3.804. It climbed 6.5% from last Friday's closing level.
July silver added 2 cents to finish at $13.53 an ounce after a one-week high of $13.70. But it was down 0.3% for the week.
Metals traders have been eyeing developments in Peru where some labor unions have been on strike since the start of the week.
Peru's National Federation of Mining, Metallurgy and Steel Workers and the government have reached a preliminary agreement to end the national-mining sector strike, the secretary general of the federal said Friday, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Also, Peru's government has declared illegal a strike by unionized workers at Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA's Uchucchacua silver mine, according to Dow Jones.
But unionized workers at Minera Yanococha SRL said Friday that talks have broken off with the company for a new collective agreement, and they plan to go on strike, the news agency said.
"Peru is currently the world's No. 3 copper and zinc producer, No. 5 in gold, and a top-two silver producer," according to Charles Supapodok, a fund manager for the Artemis Silver Fund, a silver-focused fund that was launched in March of this year.
"None of Peru's major mining companies have declared force majeure, the legal protection invoked when unforeseen events hinder a company's ability to carry out normal operations," he said. And "most mines and smelters hold enough inventory stocks to cover several days of lost production."
But "the strike has had an immediate impact on zinc, lead, and copper prices as these markets are experiencing extremely tight supply conditions with historically low LME [London Metal Exchange] stock levels," he said. "Since the strike's inception on April 28, zinc prices have shot up 7.9%, copper prices climbed 3.5%, and lead prices rose 4.4%."
The strike has affected output from Peru's largest producer of precious metals, Compania de Minas Buenaventura, where unionized workers walked out on the company's Uchucchacua silver mine, Supapodok said.
"In 2005 total world mine silver production was 641.6 million ounces; output from the Uchucchacua mine is approximately 8 million ounces per year, or a little over 1% of total world production," he said.
Given the tight supplies, traders may be best served to keep an eye on copper and silver. See Commodities Corner. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/copper-silver-every-bit-bright/story.aspx?guid=%7BEF0CFCE3%2D4A93%2D4A60%2DA988%2DF55EF53D6E2F%7D)
Supplies and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories fell by 68,509 troy ounces to stand at 7.82 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose by 1,040 troy ounces to stand at 131.3 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell by 164 short tons to 32,839 short tons.
On the LME, copper supplies fell 1,100 metric tons to 150,925 -- the lowest level since Nov. 10, 2006, according to BaseMetals.com

mama mia
05.05.2007, 11:52
Mint introduces million dollar coin
Canadian Press
Thursday, May 03, 2007


CREDIT: Canadian PressSanjay Gupta, CEO of Shirpur Gold Refinery Ltd., admires the Royal Canadian Mints' world's first 100-kg pure gold bullion coin with a $1 million face value, in Ottawa, Thursday May 3, 2007.OTTAWA- The Royal Canadian Mint has unveiled the world's first 100 kilogram pure gold coin.

Listed as 99.999 per cent pure gold bullion, the new pizza-size coin is mainly a promotional product to give the mint a higher international profile. The 100-kilogram coin was conceived as a showpiece to promote the mint's new line of 99.999 per cent pure one ounce Gold Maple Leaf bullion coins.

That extra nine makes it slightly purer than the 99.99 per cent gold coins offered by competitors.

After several interested buyers came forward, the mint decided to make a very limited quantity available for sale.

The coin, which has not been named yet, will be sold as a limited time offer and will be made to order so there'll be no inventory to carry or to melt down if there's unsold stock.

Since 1979, the mint has pioneered high-purity Maple Leaf bullion coins, selling about 20 million ounces of them around the world.

But it acknowledges that it has lost some of its competitive edge, as mints in Australia, Austria, China and the United States push their own high-quality gold coins.

Bennet said the 100-kilogram and the one-ounce 99.999 per cent pure gold bullion coins help separate the mint from competitors.

Austria, in particular, has had success with its 100,000-euro gold coin, worth about C$153,000.

The Austrian coin is 37 centimetres across and weighs 31 kilograms.

© The Canadian Press 2007

mama mia
05.05.2007, 17:19
HUI/Gold Ratio Trends

Adam Hamilton
Archives (http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm?321gold)
May 4, 2007

As we continue our fascinating journeys of discovery as students of the markets, we do a lot of charting work at Zeal. Recently a chart that I hadn't given much thought to for the better part of 8 months caught my attention again. It was a HUI/Gold Ratio chart, also known as HGR in this essay.

The HUI/Gold Ratio is as simple as it sounds, it is calculated by merely dividing the daily close of the HUI unhedged gold-stock index by the daily close in the price of gold. When this resulting ratio is graphed over time, it vividly illustrates the ever-shifting relative strength of the gold stocks versus gold. As their bulls mature, one is stronger and then the other, back and forth. They are engaging in a great secular tug-o-war.

At times the gold stocks are thriving, rising much faster than their golden underlying primary driver, so the HGR rises. At other times much like what we've witnessed so far this year, the gold stocks are languishing in consolidation mode so gold has the chance to rise faster than them and thus drive the HGR lower. Over time this evolving dynamic carves some interesting chart patterns.

In the early years of this bull, a friend of mine came up with an elegant trading system for actively trading the gold stocks based on the HGR's technicals. Like most trading systems, it was very successful for years but then its efficacy started to fade. Prior to 2005 its buy and sell signals were rare and useful, but later that year the wild HUI made them start to thrash. With buys and sells happening constantly, this system's utility waned. I discussed the limitations of this particular HGR trading system (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/hgrlimit.htm) last year.

After that experience, my focus drifted away from the HGR. But last month as I was updating some of the charts in the subscriber chart section of our website, the secular trend of the HGR caught my eye. It looked like a long-term trend channel had emerged in this indicator and that it was nearing the place where gold stocks started to really outperform gold in the past, or a major HUI buy signal.

So is the venerable HUI/Gold Ratio once again suggesting that a major gold-stock upleg is drawing nigh, that gold stocks are due to outperform the metal they mine? Yes, it sure is. And considering how horribly dismal the HUI sentiment has been so far this year, a ray of hope shining in from the HGR is certainly most welcome.

Here is a smaller essay-sized version of the chart that caught my attention. Note the well-defined secular uptrend channel rendered below, which shows that the HUI has been rising faster than gold on balance for many years now. Also note that the HGR is once again near the lower support of this trend channel today. Each time in the past this happened, soon after the HGR soared as a mighty HUI upleg launched.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton050407/Zeal050407A.gif The HGR is the blue series in these charts, with accompanying key moving averages. It is superimposed over the raw HUI itself, shown in red. Not surprisingly, when the underlying HUI shoots higher in a mighty upleg, it rises much faster than the gold price and hence drives the HGR heavenwards. And the beginnings of such hugely profitable major HUI uplegs in recent years have occurred at HGR support.

The HGR secular support line shown here is well-defined. The HGR bounced off it decisively in mid-2002, early 2003, and mid-2005. In each case the HUI surged sharply after its HGR support approach. And today the HGR is once again converging to this same support line that has been so bullish for the HUI so far in its bull market to date.

And interestingly a top resistance line perfectly parallel to the lower support is also readily evident in this chart. At the end of major uplegs, the HUI would get ahead of itself and correct, falling faster than gold which leads to gold's relative outperformance which drives the HGR down. While there was a massive above-resistance surge in late 2003, this parallel resistance line held strong in mid-2002, late-2004, and early 2006.

So the complex and often tactically chaotic interrelationship between the gold stocks and the metal that drives them can be distilled down into a simple technical uptrend! The strength and potency of any trend channel is directly proportional to the number of years that it has remained in place. With this uptrend starting way back in 2002 and showing no signs of failing yet, odds are it is pretty important to consider.

Its simple message today is buy gold stocks because they are probably on the verge of a major upleg. When the HUI performance has been bad for so long that the HGR is driven down to support, a period of gold-stock outperformance is once again due. We are very near such a critical bullish inflection point today.

This is very exciting, but as a lifelong student of the markets I am usually more interested in why particular trading signals work rather than just trading blindly on their mere existence. So the logic underlying this HGR secular uptrend, and the alternating cycles of gold then gold-stock outperformance, is very intriguing to me. Having pondered this question for some weeks now, this pattern makes sense.

All financial markets are driven by never-ending sentiment waves. These waves are the collective sum of traders' emotions regarding a particular sector. Their crests are driven by greed, euphoric times when new highs are being carved and traders think prices will never stop rising. Then inevitably the troughs driven by fear follow, dark times in the bowels of major corrections when traders think prices will never quit falling. All tactical price action is ultimately the result of aggregate popular greed and fear.

Gold stocks and gold certainly aren't immune to these sentiment waves. In fact, given the incredible gold-lust that burns deep within virtually all the hearts of men, gold's reactions to collective greed and fear are often magnified. There is an old market aphorism stating "there is no rush like a gold rush", and history certainly validates it.

Although there are separate sentiment waves echoing through both gold and gold stocks, for a couple reasons gold's usually steer both sets. First, the gold price is much more fundamentally-driven than the stocks. Gold's annual mined supply is very finite, and nothing can rapidly speed its growth due to the difficult and time-consuming nature of this industry. So gold's price should be closer to fundamentals than stock prices most of the time, and far less noisy.

Stocks, ultimately, are just paper. While they do represent fractional ownership in real gold mines, existing companies can issue new shares at will and new companies can form at any time and float stock. Both of these events add to existing gold-stock supply. While gold supply growth is ironclad finite, theoretically there are no limits on gold-stock supply growth. This means gold-stock prices are not as fundamentally absolute as gold's and hence more susceptible to tactical sentiment-driven anomalies.

Second, gold is the ultimate driver of gold-stock prices. Gold miners mine gold, so higher gold prices lead to higher profits. The stock markets eventually reward higher profits by bidding up stock prices to reflect them. And there is a psychological element here too. Gold-stock traders are most likely to buy gold stocks when gold is rising. So climbing gold is the primary catalyst for bullish gold-stock action, leading gold to influence gold stocks and not the other way around.

Although gold is being driven relentlessly higher on balance by fundamentals (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/goldfund.htm), its path is not arrow-straight. Sentiment waves force gold to oscillate around its long-term uptrend, temporarily going above trend when traders get greedy and excited and temporarily going below when they get scared and worried. These sentiment flows and ebbs in gold largely drive the sympathetic yet amplified gold-stock sentiment waves.

When gold strength gets gold-stock traders excited, their capital floods into the relatively tiny gold-stock sector. Stock prices soar as they try to absorb the capital inflow. Eventually, as in all uplegs in all sectors, greed grows too great and all the traders who want to buy have bought. Then the inevitable correction arrives. The resulting trough of the sentiment wave brings selling and ultimately fear, and gold-stock prices are hammered.

I think these sentiment waves are what we are seeing in the chart above, the logical cause for a tight secular HUI/Gold Ratio uptrend channel carved over years. When the greed part of a wave arrives both HUI and gold rise but the stocks rise much faster since they have such a tiny collective market capitalization compared to the trillions of dollars worth of gold out there. This dynamic drives the HGR higher to its upper resistance line. These events are marked "surge" in this chart.

Then when the sentiment waves crest, gold and the HUI tend to peak within close temporal proximity of each other. Four of these peaking events, marking the ends of major HUI uplegs, are numbered above. Note that they generally occur at or above upper HGR resistance. Soon after when the trough of the sentiment waves follows, it manifests itself in parallel corrections in gold and the HUI.

But just as the HUI leverages gold's gains (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/huilev3.htm) to the upside when greed is waxing extreme, it also leverages gold's losses to the downside. During the ebbing of the sentiment wave when the HGR is retreating, it is often not because gold is rising faster than the HUI but because gold is falling less fast than the HUI. This too represents gold outperformance relative to the HUI. These episodes are labeled "drift" above, and they drag the HGR back down to its support. We see this HGR surge, top, drift, bottom pattern over and over again.

Thus there seems to be a logical sentiment cause for the HUI and gold interaction that created the stunning uptrend in this chart. Since these waves hit with some regularity and tend to have similar amplitudes and durations, they are able to gradually flesh out a linear ascent. It is really fascinating to step back from the markets and try to understand sentiment and its effects from a strategic level!

Even with a probable cause outlined, the conclusion is the same. The HUI/Gold Ratio is near secular support because the fear trough of a sentiment wave is passing. Gold has outperformed the HUI for a year now, as evidenced by the falling HGR, but since the HGR is near support this episode is probably drawing to an end. In order for this cycle to continue and the HUI to outperform gold and drive the HGR up to resistance again, we are going to have to see another massive HUI upleg.

Although the regularly alternating episodes of HUI-then-gold relative outperformance driven by sentiment are the most intriguing part of this whole thread of research to me, the tactical HGR is also quite interesting. If we zoom into just the very right edge of the chart above, since gold's and the HUI's latest interim tops of last May, this latest drift is forming a tightening wedge. It is rendered here.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton050407/Zeal050407B.gif While this tactical wedge is not as well-defined as the secular uptrend, it is still quite apparent when drawn with best-fit lines. Interestingly it is symmetrical too, with its upper resistance representing the same slope, but inverted, of its lower support. This sideways action is technically a drift, a period of gold outperformance, but with the HGR trending flat neither the stocks nor the metal have pulled decisively ahead for a year.

This wedge pattern is getting ratcheted tighter and tighter the longer that gold and the HUI struggle for the outperformer crown. At the current wedge rate of convergence, it takes about two months for a 0.01 HGR increment to be cut out of the wedge. With the wedge point now trapped between roughly 0.51 to 0.54, this means that this wedge must mathematically break this summer and it will likely fail even sooner.

The big question is which way will the HGR go once its tactical wedge fails? Will the HUI outperform driving the ratio higher or will gold outperform driving it lower? Based on the bull-to-date precedent discussed above, I think the odds far favor the HUI outperforming gold so the HGR breaks out to the upside. Here's why.

Gold remains in a strong secular bull market for fundamental reasons. I discussed the very latest gold fundamental data in the new May issue (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm) of our monthly newsletter just published this week if you are interested. It is incredibly bullish! Gold's global mined supply is falling while its demand is rising, a sure recipe for higher prices. And if gold is still in a secular bull, then gold stocks will ultimately follow it higher.

As the history of the HUI/Gold Ratio clearly shows, periods of HUI outperformance alternate with periods of gold outperformance. Over this past year we've been in a drift phase, where gold was outperforming the HUI on balance. Thus we are due to reenter the other state where the HUI outperforms. This can only happen if a major new gold-stock upleg is on the verge of launching. So cycle probabilities favor the HGR breaking out to the upside.

This leaves one more exciting question. If a major HUI upleg is coming and it ultimately drives the HGR up to resistance again, how high could the HUI go? Well, based on the first chart the next HGR resistance intercept should be between 0.65 and 0.70. So let's use 0.68 as an estimate. And of course the level of the HUI at this secular resistance line depends on where gold itself tops.

If gold was merely to top at $700 when the greed-laden crest of the next sentiment wave passes, then a 0.68 HGR yields a potential HUI top of 475. This is 40% higher from here! Imagine how a portfolio comprised of elite high-potential gold stocks would perform if the HUI merely rises to 475. I suspect the ultimate upleg gains would be pretty awesome.

But odds are gold is not just going to stop at $700 in this upleg. The massive gold upleg that topped last May, gold's first Stage Two (http://www.zealllc.com/2006/goldtwo3.htm) investment-driven upleg, soared about 70%. Back in Stage One, gold uplegs tended to run around 20% each. Using a conservative back-weighted average, let's assume gold will run 40% higher in this upleg. From its lows of this past October, a 40% gain would carry gold to $785.

At $785 and a 0.68 HGR resistance level, the HUI itself would have to soar to 535 or so! This is 55% higher from here. As always these exact target numbers aren't all that important, just the understanding that if the HUI/Gold Ratio sticks to bull-to-date precedent the next major interim high in the HUI should be far higher than today's levels. If such an upleg indeed materializes, traders riding it will win enormous profits.

At Zeal we have been preparing for this expected upleg since the October lows. We have deployed a bunch of gold-stock positions already, and are buying more on weakness. Some have been stopped out on the HUI's various pullbacks since then, but the survivors are thriving. This week even in the depths of the latest HUI pullback, we had unrealized gold stock gains running as high as 65% on individual stock trades.

If you are looking for cutting-edge research and analysis on not only timing major gold-stock uplegs but on finding the highest-potential gold stocks to buy to ride these uplegs, our acclaimed monthly Zeal Intelligence (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm) newsletter is for you. In it, as we have done in every HUI upleg since 2000, we research and recommend elite gold stocks when the technical timing to buy looks opportune. The profits so far have been great and should only grow as this bull matures. Please subscribe today (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm) and join us!

The bottom line is the HUI/Gold Ratio is approaching its long-term support. In this bull to date, each time this has happened the HUI has soared heavenwards soon after in a mighty new upleg. With gold's fundamentals still awesome, and gold driving this gold-stock bull, the odds favor the HUI soon outperforming gold again and surging higher to drive up the HGR as it has done in the past.

The HGR drift of the past year has been a trying one psychologically, but it has built the perfect foundation for a new upleg to launch. Not only is HUI sentiment still pretty pessimistic today, the contrarian time to buy, but it has built a new higher technical base from which to launch its assault on new highs. On top of all this it is technically due to start outperforming gold again in a cycle sense.

Adam Hamilton, CPA

May 4, 2007

So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm), that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research.

Please consider joining us each month for tactical trading details and more in our premium Zeal Intelligence service at www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm (http://www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm).

Questions for Adam? I would be more than happy to address them through my private consulting business. Please visit http://www.zealllc.com/adam.htm for more information.

Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at zelotes@zealllc.com. Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally. I will read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback!

Copyright ©2000-2007 Zeal Research All Rights Reserved.


mama mia
06.05.2007, 12:28
Thursday, May 3, 2007

HUI, HUI-Gold Ratio & the macro backdrop... all in a couple handy charts! (http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2007/05/hui-hui-gold-ratio-macro-backdrop-all.html)

mama mia
06.05.2007, 12:34
Gold Breakout Delayed

Jim Willie CB
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)"
May 4, 2007

Use this link (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html) to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.

All the conditions were there, a euro currency breakout, a British sterling currency breakout, and pronounced USDollar weakness. The sterling exchange rate even hit $2.00 to capture a tremendous amount of attention. The denials streamed in on how the weaker USDollar is not such a big deal, which always serves as a confirmation of a dire situation. Imagine a harlot on a London Piccadilly Square citing her extra 30 pounds around the haunches, her heavy paint to cover remnants of faded femininity, the complexion lost long ago, and her deep whisky voice, as she actually claims she still possesses her intense sexual spark. The crippled USDollar cannot buck the passage of time and inexorable destruction through unfettered monetary inflation abuse and colossal irresponsibility. The protection racket actually open the door for executive perks which dwarf whatever was condoned at Tyco with lavish Roman toga parties and gold bathroom fixtures. The world reserve currency is in the process of upchuck rejection.

Anyone wondering why gold has not made new highs during a time when the USDollar is teetering need only look to the official Euro Central Bank gold sales. Thanks to the Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) organization for their steady professional reporting on activity behind the scenes. Intrepid Blanchard reports the ECB sold a whopping 76 tonnes of gold bullion in the five weeks ending April 24-th, including 17 tonnes in the fifth week. That is a huge jump over their pattern in the last six months. They clearly waited for a time when the USDollar was exceptionally weak to dump gold. They call it dishoarding, in blatantly irresponsible fashion, since bullion is bank collateral for currency, the banking system, and their economy. These Keystone Gold Cops can only succeed in delaying the inevitable crescendo of a gold breakout. In the process they will destroy their currencys and banking systems. New highs for gold come soon!

In the spring of 2006, when the ECB last dumped a tremendous volume of gold bullion on the market, the gold price fell from $730 to $550. So the resilience of gold is vividly clear, powerfully strong. In the same cited five week time span during the most recent ECB gold dump, gold actually rose from $640 to $690, only to take a hit and find some temporarily stability near $680. When official ECB gold sales abate, look for gold to easily surpass the $700 mark and make new highs. Pressure is relentless and ECB sales will dwindle. Gold will continue to be disgorged from the vaults of these crippled and mindless central banks, intent on supporting an unsustainable fiat system. Experts believe Western banks are underwritten by gold pledges from the US Dept of Treasury in what is called in Orwellian style 'deep storage gold' to mean future mine output. But there is much more to the story.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie050407.gif THE HEDGED MORON MINERS
Enter Barrick Gold, self-admitted agents for the Western central banks. Barrick exited two million ounces of gold forward contracts from its acidic black hole hedge book in the first quarter of 2007, thus incurring a whopping $557 million loss. Why a certain prominent Toronto analyst (who provides excellent information about China regularly) supports this stock is beyond me. The contract price of exited contracts was 41% below current gold prices! Barrick fetched a mere $386 per oz in Q1, 28% below a year ago. The average market gold price during Q1 was $652.8 per oz. Barrick announced another half a million ounces to be sold from their hedge book in Q2. In 2006, they exited 9.4 million oz in gold hedge book contracts, comprising 62% of global total. Without any doubt, a coordination took place between this scummy company and Western central banks so as to obstruct any gold rally to new highs. They wanted at all costs to avert a gathering storm for the USDollar, confirmed by a gold price explosion. The ECB has agreed to limit its gold bullion sales to 500 tonnes annually, but experts do NOT expect them to come close to their permitted limit.

What's more, Australian miner Lihir Gold announced a nearly $1 billion secondary dilutive stock issuance in order to close its hedge book, repay debt, and fund expansion. They will close a 934.5k ounce forward contract set at $343/oz, and repay a 480k ounce gold loan at $449/oz, each a disaster. Together, Barrick and Lihir will remove $1.1 billion in gold off the market to worsen the critical supply shortage already. Furthermore, a global survey by Mitsui of 118 producers revealed a 25% decline in forward contracts sold by gold miners in 2006. So hedging is lessened, often reversed, when misguided desperate central banks are running low of bullion to dump, much like secure ballast on a ship at sea during a big storm.

In a February 2006 article of mine titled "Inelastic Gold Supply" (click here (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie020706.html)), an attempt was made to explain how gold mine output would not rise in ANY significant way with a higher gold price. Many factors were covered, from hedge books to rising costs to labor shortages. WE ARE SEEING THAT PRECISELY NOW. The recently applied trick for heavily hedged miners (see Lihir Gold of Australia) is to dilute the stock or to burden the debt load in order to finance the hedge book buybacks. Either way, the stock looks less attractive. If energy firms are not buying back shares instead of investing in their companies, we see gold miners buying back their acidic hedge books instead of investing in their companies. Outcry should be shrill and endless, except that Barrick answers to central banks, not share holders. And the big energy firms answer to the White House and Military. The major point is that higher gold price is NOT resulting in higher gold output. This is the ESSENCE of inelasticity. Barrick and the other corrupt financial appendages to bankers (I mean miners) testify to the failure to produce greater amount of gold bullion at higher prices.

An unflattering portrayal of Barrick Gold was given 15 months ago, now firmly established. For those Americans who slept through chemisty, math, and other science classes, if you mix acid with an alkaloid (its opposite in hydrogen surplus), you get harmless water.
Barrick Gold hedge book losses have begun now to be quantified. Don't expect setbacks are over for either this firm or other hedge device abusers. Barrick was once accused of being a financial firm masquerading as a gold miner, for the unexpressed purpose of selling forward gold contracts far in excess of actual production. Its entire existence is an anomaly, most likely from its inception being a corporate illicit hedge apparatus, a gold cartel tool. Their senior management hailed from financial firms, not mining firms, and surely not of geologist background. Their central unstated non-chartered modus operandi was founded in neglect of their mine operations, sure to exacerbate their future (like now) gold output. Their reported 13 million gold ounce short position vastly eclipses any future production schedule, an outpouring of acid on their balance sheet of as much as $560 million lost in a single recent quarter. To put that quantity into perspective, 13 million oz short position exceeds all gold exchange traded fund (ETF) holdings. In the past six quarters, try imaging the harsh reality of a $1000 million loss for Barrick.

Anyone who cannot conclude that their acquisition of Placer Dome was motivated by a desire to blend acid with some valid production and cash (alkaloid) is naïve at best or blind at worst. Their combined short position is 21 million oz gold. To date, a $3 billion loss on the Barrick books is staggering, but that amount is likely less than half of the sum necessary to close out their "ingenious" hedge book. Again, perspective is needed. Such a cumulative loss over the years offsets the entire profit generated by Barrick from its ill-designed inception. One can serve up Barrick in an MBA business school program as the quintessential hedge disaster in all of history. My view is that at least one mining firm, and very probably Barrick, will blow up in the next derivative disaster with full publicity and notoriety. My conjecture is that Fanny Mae already blew up, but its publicity has been smothered in secrecy under the aegis of the US Federal Reserve. My other evil conjecture is that the USFed is illicitly transforming Fanny Mae mortgage backed bonds into US Treasury Bonds. Does anyone watch? Does anyone care? Is the law even apply? Are laws relevant to the game anyway?

Finally, the point to be gained from this line of thought is that Barrick, like some other gold miners, has been forced to exhaust its precious cash position. They have therefore denied themselves needed funds for mining operations, to satisfy their charter for gold production (seemingly a nuisance), in order to secure current precious metal output. They aint producing anywhere near as much gold, silver, and other byproduct metals due to their greed, stupidity, arrogance, and fractured fallacious phony business plan. The irony is that first, miners are buyers of gold contracts in a very very big way. Second, as the gold price rises, they might actually produce LESS GOLD. They are being bled dry of cash. A mining stock investor must lick chops, salivate, and find glee in their highly deserved misery. Overly hedged gold miners actually produce less with higher prices.

Numerous points were made in that article of February 2006, each now prominently cited as part of a systemic problem. At the market bottom, enthusiasm with demand was absent, typical of an inelastic system. As the market advances, supply is curiously absent as well, again typical of an inelastic system. Mine output globally for gold was down in 2006, despite a higher gold price.

Most people are familiar with the basics of the supply & demand curve. Well, except perhaps economists, who re-invent their craft as they go along, fully sacrificing time-tested principles as they "sell out" and defend their interests. Their self-serving analyses disseminated to the public are routine landscape shrubbery. We are often subjected to questionable economist arguments... Whenever a convenient spin is needed on an economic subject, it is alarming how often either supply or demand is ignored, as an oversight (unintended or blatant), or a distortion (accidental or planned) within an argument.

Anyone who cannot conclude that their acquisition of Placer Dome was motivated by a desire to blend acid with some valid production and cash (alkaloid) is naïve at best or blind at worst. Their [Barrick & Placer] combined short position is 21 million oz gold. To date, a $3 billion loss on the Barrick books is staggering, but that amount is likely less than half of the sum necessary to close out their "ingenious" hedge book.

Don Lindsay, CEO of Teck Cominco, paints a bleak labor picture... Lindsay traced the origins of the labor shortage back to 1997. According to him, the feeder systems were disrupted by the Bre-X scandal, the Asian Meltdown, and the commodity bear market. He expects demand to remain robust from China. Keep in mind that over two thirds of geologists in the world hail from Canadian schools. So if professional shortages exist in Canada, we have a very large problem indeed. Mirroring the crude oil roughneck labor shortage is the mining labor shortage. Another parallel exists. Lindsay points out that within a decade, 60% of all Canadian scientists working the geosciences will be at least 65 years of age. The overall impact is surely that new mine deposits will take longer to find, longer to produce, and cost more.

Contrast for a moment to the year 2001, when gold was at its bottom $265 price. Nobody could... care less, as financial rags ignored the tremendous bargain, as dealers had to beg customers to purchase the barbarous relic in any form. So at the lowest price, gold went begging with little interest. So at the highest price, gold garnered enormous interest and enthusiasm. That is backwards, grasshopper.

Let us all rejoice for the screwed up self-destructive overly hedged gold miners. May they enjoy a slow death from a thousand cuts as they endlessly cover their acidic hedge books, and add to relentless demand from their own folly. It is my theory that they will never fully cover such hedge books. They will endlessly purchase, endlessly move their "line in the sand" to incrementally higher price levels, endlessly avert death by buying a little more time.
Barrick is typical of large stodgy producers. Both Barrick and Newmont report much higher average cost of mining gold per ounce, compared to just a year ago. Output for Barrick is down also, from 8.6 million oz in 2006 to an expected 8.25moz this year. These large lumbering giants hold back the HUI stock index, since overweighted. They discover next to nothing, gobble up smaller firms, acquire their gold (not discovery), and assume gigantic hedge book losses. In short, they create a false impression for smaller, smarter, more nimble, and less burdened gold miners to invest in.

The nightmare for Barrick Gold is not over. In fact, it is only half complete. After their desperate grab for Placer Dome, their combined hedge book was 21 million ounces (moz) gold. In 2006, they covered 9.4 moz on that disastrous millstone around their financial balance sheet neck. In Q1 they covered 2.0 moz. They state plans to cover another 0.5 moz in the next Q2 quarter. So by mid-2007 they will have covered 11.9 moz of their 21 moz total hedge book. THEY ARE HALF DONE WITH THEIR NIGHTMARE. So Ing and his ilk still like this acid-ridden firm which needs tons of milk to form water? Methinks not, as one can smell compromise.

In the next few weeks, gold will cut through the $700 price mark like a quiet hot knife. It would have done so already, if not for the COLLUSION between Barrick and Western central banks. The Euro Central Bank cannot keep its pace of official gold sales. They will undoubtedly NOT SELL as much as the corrupt Washington Accord dictates as allowable. This is much more destructive than burning the home furniture for winter heat. It is akin to burning the wooden support beams, burning the wooden load bearing pillars, burning the basement den, burning the recreation room, destroying the entire foundation to the home!!! The contractors are the corrupt gold miners who masquerade as miners, but are actually gold cartel agents. Imagine the wisdom of selling off your entire collateral for the currency and banking system, in utter desperation, hopelessness, and anguish!!! Keep up the hedge book covering, guys. We have been counting on you for a couple years. Continue to sop up and exhaust supply, wherever it comes from. BECAUSE WHEN YOU GUYS REST (COVERING HEDGES, DUMPING ECB GOLD BULLION), GOLD WILL ZIP EVER HIGHER. Its destiny is to do so.


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May 4, 2007
Jim Willie CB

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/hats.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
Willie Archives
(http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Jim+Willie+CB)website: Golden Jackass (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter (http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html)

mama mia
07.05.2007, 10:52

Hallo zusammen :)

Silber beendet Zwischenkorrektur


Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1038965#post1038965)
07.05.2007 - Silber beendet Zwischenkorrektur - Autor: A. Beutler

Durch die sehr uneinheitlichen Veränderungen der Goldminenaktien und ein mehrfaches Abprallen am Widerstand bei 14,1 Dollar/Unze, haben wir im Kurzbericht über eine mögliche Zwischenkorrektur hingewiesen.

Die Zwischenkorrektur von Silber konnte auf der unteren Trendlinie des mittelfristigen Aufwärtstrends gestoppt werden. Der Silberpreis notiert aktuell bei 13,47 Dollar/Unze.


Wir gehen davon aus, dass diese Zwischenkorrektur beendet ist und Silber das nötige Momentum aufbauen kann, um den Widerstand bei 14,1 Dollar/Unze nachhaltig zu überwinden und zum Letztjahreshoch im Bereich von 15,3 Dollar/Unze vorzustossen.


Auf dem aktuellen Niveau ergibt sich eine Kaufgelegenheit für Leute, die noch nicht in Silber investiert sind. Wir empfehlen einen Stop-Loss auf Tagesschlussbasis, knapp unterhalb des Aufwärtstrends, im Bereich von 12.8 Dollar/Unze. Somit haben Sie bei einem Kursziel von 15,3 Dollar/Unze ein vernünftiges Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis.

mama mia
07.05.2007, 16:36
Verfasst von Martin Siegel (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=39) am 07.05.2007 um 11:12 Uhr

Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities

Seit dem 25.04.2007 werden die neuen Gold Bullion Securities unter der WKN: A0LP78 gehandelt. Unsere Leser wurden bereits mehrfach vor Investments in Papiergold gewarnt und wir erneuern unsere Warnung anhand dieses neuen Produkts.

Die Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) mit Sitz auf den Jersey Inseln begibt 1 Mrd Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities (Anteile). Jeder Anteil entspricht einem Anspruch auf 499,550959% eines Zehntels einer Feinunze Gold, als etwa ½ Unze Gold. Sollte die gesamte Menge gezeichnet werden, würde dies dem Volumen von 499,55 Mio oz Gold oder 15.538 t Gold entsprechen. GBS hat den Anspruch, sämtliche Anteile mit physischem Gold zu decken. Wir halten es für ausgeschlossen, daß die Menge von 15.538 t Gold für diesen Zweck verfügbar ist. Schon aus diesem Grund lehnen wir ein Engagement in diesem Papiergold ab.

Die deutsche Zusammenfassung des Prospekts weist auf die zahlreichen Ausnahmen des 75-seitigen englischen Prospekts hin und warnt davor, daß jede Entscheidung für eine Anlage auf die Prüfung des gesamten Prospekts gestützt werden sollte. Im Fall einer gerichtlichen Auseinandersetzung wird vorsorglich darauf hingewiesen, daß der Kläger die Übersetzung des Prospekts zu bezahlen hat.

Aus der deutschen Zusammenfassung des Prospekts: "Ein Lyxor Gold Bullion Security ist eine von der Gesellschaft emittierte, gesicherte, undatierte Nullkupon-Schuldverschreibung mit einem Nennwert von 0,00001 USD,... ."

Und weiter: "Der "Wert" des Anspruchs auf Gold pro Wertpapier entspricht dem Betrag des tatsächlich von der Gesellschaft bei der Veräußerung von Gold entsprechend dem Anspruch auf Gold pro Wertpapier erzielten Bruttoerlöses.“ Alles klar? GBS verkauft das Gold beispielsweise für 500 $/oz, so daß der Anspruch auf Gold pro Wertpapier entsprechend 500 $/oz beträgt. Das Risiko von künstlich niedrig angesetzten Preisfixierungen trägt demnach der Käufer der Anteile.

Noch nicht genug: „Für Rückkäufe gegen Geld vertraut die Gesellschaft auf die Bonität der genehmigten Gegenpartei dieser Transaktion. Falls eine genehmigte Gegenpartei die Abrechnung einer solchen Transaktion versäumt, reduziert sich die Zahlungsverpflichtung der GBS um jenen Betrag, der von der genehmigten Gegenpartei zu wenig gezahlt wurde." Dies ist eine phantastisch geniale Konstruktion. Im Fall einer weltweiten Finanzkrise verkauft die GBS das Gold beispielsweise an die genehmigte Gegenpartei Goldman Sachs. Diese geht konkurs und kann nur noch 20 $/oz bezahlen. Der Anspruch des Käufers der Anteile an die GBS reduziert sich damit auf 20 $/oz. Die Käufer der Anteile werden bei einer solchen Entwicklung sicherlich von Betrug sprechen - nach dem Prospekt wäre dies jedoch legal und nicht gerichtlich anfechtbar.

Die Verwahrung des hinterlegten Goldes übernimmt die HSBC Bank USA in London. Die HSBC Bank USA unterliegt der US-Bankenaufsichtsbehörde. Die HSBC Bank USA hat jedoch die Möglichkeit, das Gold von einem Unterverwahrer oder von einem vom Unterverwahrer beauftragten Dritten einlagern zu lassen. Der Verwahrer ist nicht verpflichtet, das Gold gegen Verlust, Diebstahl oder Beschädigung zu versichern und hat auch nicht die Absicht, eine Versicherung gegen diese Risiken abzuschließen. Mit anderen Worten: Das angeblich von der HSBC Bank eingelagerte Gold kann völlig unkontrolliert und unversichert bei einem vom Unterverwahrer beauftragten Dritten "verlorengehen".

Im Fall eines Verlustes haftet nur die GBS. Rückgriffe auf den Treuhänder, den Verwahrer, die Registerstelle, die SG oder deren Tochtergesellschaften sind ausgeschlossen. Die GBS gibt es seit 2004, wobei darauf hingewiesen wird, daß die mangelnde Erfahrung des Managements aufgrund der erst kurzen Existenz der Gesellschaft weitere Risiken in sich birgt.

Jeder Anteilseigner hat die Möglichkeit, sich Gold in ein nicht zugeteiltes Depot bei einem Goldbarrenhändler in London übertragen zu lassen. Dieser Händler muß Mitglied der LBMA sein.

Wir gehen davon aus, daß kein einziger deutscher Käufer dieser Anteile ein nicht zugeteiltes Depot bei einem Goldbarrenhändler in London hat.
Die Managementgebühren betragen jährlich 0,4% des Volumens der Schuldverschreibungen. Wer beispielsweise Anteile im Wert von 100.000 Euro kauft, was einem Gegenwert von etwa 6 kg Gold entspricht, verliert jährlich 400 Euro Managementgebühren. Wer sein Gold dagegen in ein Schießfach seiner Bank einlagert, bezahlt jährlich etwa 50 Euro Gebühren, hat einen direkten Zugriff auf die Goldanlage, kann dieses Schließfach versichern und vermeidet eine Vielzahl von zusätzlichen Risiken im Vergleich zum Investment in einer von der GBS emittierten, gesicherten, undatierte Nullkupon-Schuld-verschreibung mit einem Nennwert von 0,00001 USD.

mama mia
07.05.2007, 19:12
Gold Forecaster - Global Watch
Central Bank Gold Sales to End Prematurely?

Julian D.W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster snippet
May 7, 2007

- Below is a snippet from the latest weekly issue from www.GoldForecaster.com (http://www.goldforecaster.com/)

In the last couple of months a great deal of emphasis has been placed on Central Bank sales. These have been heavy and along with diminished E.T.F. purchases and even net sales, have held the gold price back. But a major point has been overlooked in these commentaries. How long can they last?

The amount of sales per year is not the sole limitation on these sales, but the announced total sales by each individual Central Bank is the defined limit. Our Table below highlights the situation entirely.

Central Bank Gold Agreement - Sales in 2006 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips050707.gif Notes to table: -
1) This now includes the unannounced sales for both years from Spain & Belgium, which totaled 177.1 tonnes for the two years.
2) We have excluded the unannounced sales from the totals so as to retain accurate levels of decline in announced sales.
3) Germany's sales were for coins, which we do not regard as part of the announced sales for the purposes of this situation.

This table has as its second column the sales that each Central Bank signatory to the Central Bank Gold Agreement announced it would sell. We are presently in the third year of this Agreement. The Agreement also includes a 'ceiling' of 500 tonnes per annum. The year commences on 27th September each year.

As you can see the Agreement has been kept. So far less than 500 tonnes of gold has been sold each of these years, with the total of last year's sales less than 400 tonnes. In this, the third year, we still have another 5 months to run beofre the year is finished, leaving two more years thereafter until the Agreement runs out.

The tonnage remaining of the announced sales is down to 617.5 tonnes, as of the end of April this year. These sales are to last for the remaining 2 years five months of the Agreement.

If sales continue at the rate we have seen over the last two months at around an average of 10 tonnes these sales will last just over a year before they are complete and will terminate.

However, not all the signatories have announced the sales they intended to make during the agreement. The two nations that kept quiet about their inteneded sales are Spain and Belgium. Yes, the Table gives the history of the sales from these nations and we can pick up the history of the selling that these two made in the past.

A glance at these show that Belgium has not sold for the last 19 months. We have no reason to believe they have more to sell in the remaining Agreement period.
Spain on the other hand has sold 147.1 tonnes to date. Last year the Central Bank of Spain led us to believe that these sales were tied into the maturing of Call Options they had sold, that were now being taken up. The pattern of present sales gives us reason to believe the same is happening now. Clearly the prices at which the Central Bank of Span sold these would have been the gold prices of up to 5 years ago [$350+?], a sad sight to the Members of that Bank's board of Directors, let alone the Spanish public. Spain has sold 54.6 tonnes since the beginning of the year, the bulk of it in March [40 tonnes]. The total sales levels for the last two complete years, indicates that we are near to the completion of this year's sales by Spain.
We suspected France has been a seller of note and is likely to continue to sell until it has exhausted its allocation of gold for selling. As Sarkozy was the Finance Minister at the time of the announcement of France's selling [clearly to an unhappy Banque de France] and with his prospects of being the next President of France, we expect the full amount of 600 tonnes to be sold.

So where does this all lead us to?

If the present selling rate continues at around 10 tonnes a week for the balance of this C.B.G.A. year, then expect another 200 tonnes to be sold before the 26th September this year. This leaves 400 tonnes for the next two remaining years of the Agreement, ignoring Spain. 200 tonnes per annum is just not a threat to the gold price and well down on the level of the 500 tonne 'ceiling'.
Should Spain sell in the same way it has to date, then expect next year to see the February to May period see around 60 tonnes over the next two years from Spain alone? But there is no way of knowing if this will be the case. It is even possible that these sales are terminating now?
If we stretch out the remaining announced sales over the remainder of the agreement, then we will see only approximately 4 tonnes a week sold until the agreement runs out.
The unavoidable conclusion we reach is that Central Bank gold sales will not continue to hold the price back for much longer. The signatories involved must have that in mind and for gold to continue as an accepted Reserve Asset in their vaults, they would be wise to sell in such a manner so as to lower the likelihood of price 'spikes' in the market, so bring back the confidence to gold as a monetary metal, it once had.
If this is not their intention but sales are to continue at these high levels then it is possible we will see no more Central Bank Sales from these signatories from this time next year onwards?
Oh, we have not mentioned the purchases of gold by Central Banks [Greece and non-signatory banks]?
Please subscribe to www.GoldForecaster.com (http://www.goldforecaster.com/) for the entire report.

May 4, 2007
-Julian D.W. Phillips - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips050707.html

mama mia
07.05.2007, 22:13
Gold scores 3-session win, boosted by falling dollar
June gold up over $15 in three sessions; copper eases after recent gains

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bc62ea815-36cc-429e-946e-e2c64148fc6a%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bc62ea815-36cc-429e-946e-e2c64148fc6a%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:14 PM ET May 7, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures advanced on Monday to mark a three-session win of more than $15 an ounce as the U.S. dollar fell against other major currencies, underpinning demand for the precious metal.
For this week, "it's all a currency play," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard. "With the Europeans and Asian central banks continuing to raise rates while the Fed is in no position to do the same," gold and, to a smaller extent, silver are "becoming great currency plays."
Gold for June delivery gained 70 cents to close at $690.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed below the day's high of $693.20, but it's tallied a $15.30, or 2.3%, gain in three trading sessions.
"With nothing much but the [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting on the week's economic calendar, gold will take cues from the ailing U.S. currency and, evidently, not much else," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in e-mailed commentary. "A short-term de-coupling appears to be unfolding vis-à-vis the crude-oil price as gold continues to track in the opposite direction."
The dollar fell against other major currencies but stayed in narrow ranges Monday, as investors awaited central-bank meetings on interest rates in the U.S. and Europe later in the week. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-dips-central-banks-view/story.aspx?guid=%7B1F9A88C7%2D1370%2D4E08%2DA76B%2D20CF04D77835%7D)
The FOMC, the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee, is widely expected Wednesday to leave interest rates at 5.25%. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce their rate decisions on Thursday.
"Precious metals and the dollar index will be very volatile on interpretation of the language in the Fed statement, but we believe that after the news is digested and the ECB/Bank of England raise rates on Thursday, the dollar should come under renewed pressure to the downside while precious metals enjoy the bounce," said Ryan.
"This week should go a long way toward underscoring the importance of gold and silver trading as currency alternatives," Ryan said.
For now, he said he's "waiting to see if today or tomorrow we challenge the $694-$695 resistance level that a lot of analysts have pegged as the major resistance point right now."
"If we reach and eclipse that level before the Fed meeting and get some dollar-negative news out of the Fed this week, I think we'll finally be up and over the $700 and off to test the $730 high in a flash," Ryan said.
Gold set an intraday peak for a front-month futures contract of $728 on May 12, 2006. That was the highest level since 1980. Gold was quoted in electronic trading that day as high as $732.
Weakness in oil prices failed to phase gold's strength. June crude touched a nearly seven-week low under $61 a barrel as rising crude supplies. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/crude-oil-futures-near-7-week-low/story.aspx?guid=%7B2876D23A%2DADB2%2D4B5E%2DB8F1%2DE8B5245F4215%7D)
On Friday, gold futures closed near $690 an ounce to mark their strongest finish in nearly two weeks. The move came as the dollar fell against major currencies after a report showed the smallest increase in payroll employment since November 2004.
Also on the Nymex Monday, most other metals prices were higher, though copper eased after last week's gain of more than 6%. July copper gave back 1.1%, or 4.3 cents, to close at $3.7155 a pound.
July silver rose 11 cents to close at $13.64 an ounce, July platinum gained 1.7%, or $22.10, to finish at $1,350.90 an ounce and June palladium rose $2.20 to close at $379.20 an ounce.
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories fell by 148,175 troy ounces to stand at 7.67 million troy ounces as of late Friday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies were unchanged at 131.3 million troy ounces, while copper supplies fell by 333 short tons to 32,506 short tons.

mama mia
08.05.2007, 09:38

Guten Morgen :)

schöner Silver Chart

Silber auf 23 $ ? :cool


Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1039181#post1039181)
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/54270_Silver_05_07_07.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/4629_Silver_05_07_07.pdf)

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/PH_gr-back-btn.gif (http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=4665&T_ARID=4734)

mama mia
08.05.2007, 19:03
May 07, 2007

Gold Bears Have Two Weeks to Live
by Michael Swanson

http://www.safehaven.com/images/pixel.gif Early last week gold stocks fell hard only to end the week with a rebound. The drop caused many gold longs to liquidate their positions and left others wondering if we are going to even see another bull run this year.

On April 9, 2007, in my article "A Triple Buy Signal in Gold Stocks," I suggested that there were three technical indicators on the verge of giving powerful long-term buys for gold stocks. Since then we have seen gold stocks rise a bit, dip hard, and then rebound, but we have yet to see a new bull run for gold or gold stocks. Gold still remains below $700 an ounce and more and more gold longs are throwing in the towel.

I'll let you know why you shouldn't be one of these people in a moment.

It's been over a year since we saw the last major top in gold and gold stocks. Gold bugs have suffered, holding on to positions that trended sideways or sank in value as every potential breakout failed. More important than the monetary toll they have suffered is the psychological burden of living through the ups and downs of the consolidation trading range gold stocks have been stuck in all year.

People have been selling due to impatience as gold has continued sideways and a fear of losses every time gold stocks dip. Remember last summer when several leading gold commentators suggested that a big head and shoulders top was about to bring a new bear market in gold stocks?

Well, what about now?

In my article, I cited three things that told me a new bull run in gold stocks was beginning. I wrote the following:

"Gold stocks have been in a long consolidation phase for over a year now. In the past, every time gold stocks have gone through similar long consolidation patterns they have emerged to launch powerful bull runs. There are three technical signs that suggest that this pattern is about to repeat in the near future:

1) Simple support and resistance trendlines are a staple of technical analysis. As you can see, the XAU gold stock index has been locked down by its upper resistance trendline since May of last year. The XAU is now only points away from breaking above this trendline resistance level, an act that would generate a second long-term buy signal for gold stocks.

In the past twelve months, every time it has rallied up to this trendline and failed to break out, a sharp correction occurred. If gold stocks don't immediately drop hard, they will be poised to break out and close above this trendline resistance level to generate a powerful buy signal. This trendline is currently at 146 on the XAU.

2) The 200-day bollinger bands are coming together. Bollinger bands measure the volatility of an index. When they come together it means that volatility is shrinking. This is important because shrinking volatility leads to expansive moves. 200-day bollinger bands are long-term indicators.

The two bands have acted as support and resistance for the XAU and HUI for the last year. It takes months and months of consolidation for them to come together like they have now. In fact, they are now closer together than they have been in five years. The XAU and HUI are likely to break above these 200-day bollinger bands and begin their next move up sometime within the next two weeks. Notice what happened when they did this in 2003 and 2005. A move above this 200-day bollinger band on the XAU will trigger a second long-term buy signal.

3) The action in gold stocks tends to lead the action in the metal. It is bullish when gold stocks outperform the metal and bearish when they lag the action in gold. During this past consolidation phase, gold stocks lagged the metal, just as they did during the last two long consolidation phases. This caused the XAU/gld and HUI/gld ratios to decline as you can see from the above chart. The last two consolidation phases ended once the XAU/gld ratio broke this downtrend line. The ratio has been steadily moving up during the past three weeks and is close to breaking out. Such a breakout would give us a third long-term buy signal.

If all three signals occur within the next few weeks, we will then have a confirmed triple super buy for gold stocks. The next leg up in the gold bull market will begin. But those waiting for full confirmation of the signal will easily end up missing out and will buy for higher prices. The time to think about buying is now, not later."

The first signal happened several weeks ago. The 200-day bollinger bands for the XAU are still coming together, suggesting that any break to the upside will have the potential to create an even more powerful rally than I imagined a month ago. The XAU/gld ratio remains stuck below its downtrend resistance line, but is going sideways and appears to be poised to breakout of it in a few weeks. Take a look at this chart:


You can see on this chart how the 200-day bollinger bands are narrowing. Take a look at how the bollinger band width indicator in the chart above continues to drop. What this means is that the volatility in gold stocks is still shrinking.

I know the XAU just dipped below 140 last week, but this was the quickest and most shallow correction in gold stocks we've seen in a year. The recovery happened in the blink of an eye.

This suggests that the volatility is reaching an apex. We may see gold stocks trend sideways in a narrow range for another week or even two, but after that we should see a rally that breaks through the upper 200-day bollinger band to establish the next powerful intermediate-term upleg in gold stocks.

How high could it go?

Well, history suggests when the XAU/gld ratio hits .20, which it did in March and once again in May, the XAU rallies 40% over the course of the next twelve months. And, of course, the right gold stocks do even better. In fact, some of my gold stocks broke out last week and others that I am watching right now are poised to make similar moves this week.

In the final analysis, the next two weeks should complete the end of the consolidation phase for gold stocks and bring the next bull run for gold stocks.

In two weeks the fun should begin. Gold bears have two weeks of life support left.

To find out what gold stocks Swanson is buying now join his free weekly gold report. Start now: http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/weeklygold.htm (http://wallstreetwindow.com/weeklygold.htm)

Michael Swanson (tradermike@wallstreetwindow.com),
WallStreetWindow.com (http://wallstreetwindow.com/weeklygold.htm)


mama mia
08.05.2007, 22:07
:gomad ^hui :gomad

mama mia
08.05.2007, 22:46
US gold ends lower on stronger dollar, eyes FOMC

Tue 8 May 2007, 18:01 GMT

NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - A stronger dollar against the euro and follow-through sales from the previous session sent gold futures to a lower finish on Tuesday, as investors held their bets ahead of interest-rate decisions from major central banks this week.

Most-active gold for June delivery <GCM7> on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down $3.00 at $687.40 an ounce, traded in a range of $684.10 to $691.30.

Carlos Perez-Santalla at Hudson River Futures said from the COMEX floor that gold declined because of selling on the back of Monday's weakness in the New York market.

Trading resumed in the London markets on Tuesday after they were shut on Monday for the May Day bank holiday.

"The dollar's strength is always a good reason for selling the metals," Perez-Santalla said.

The euro slid against the dollar on technical chart-based selling. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated assets like gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

Bart Melek, global commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note that gold stayed relatively firm after easing in early morning trade as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate-setting announcement on Wednesday.

Melek said he expected selling pressure in the dollar and global inflation concerns should lift gold "materially" above $700 an ounce later in the year.

With the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all setting interest rates this week, precious metals investors were unwilling to add to their current positions.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent on Wednesday, while the ECB is expected to signal a June hike after keeping rates steady at 3.75 percent on Thursday. The BoE is forecast to raise the cost of borrowing to 5.5 percent.

Investors will take their cues from the rate-setting decisions, which often affect gold prices because of interactions in the currency markets.

Spot gold <XAU=> was quoted at $684.30/5.80 an ounce, below a late quote of $688.90/9.40 in New York on Monday. The London afternoon gold fix was set at $684.25 an ounce.

COMEX estimated final volume at 74,942 lots and options turnover at 12,064. Turnover in the Chicago Board of Trade's electronically traded 100-oz gold contract was 26,251 lots as of 2:31 p.m. EDT (1831 GMT). http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/

COMEX July silver <SIN7> finished down 4.0 cents at $13.600 an ounce, traded from $13.405 to $13.665.

Spot silver <XAG=> was quoted at $13.48/3.51 versus $13.51/3.54, its previous finish late Monday in New York. Silver fix was set at $13.48 an ounce in London.

Platinum futures fell on Tuesday after they hit a life-of-contract high on Monday due to strong buying in the Asia markets.

The news of a strike in South Africa's Northam Platinum <NHMJ.J> also boosted platinum prices in early electronic trade. [ID:nL08576607] But prices eased after Northam said a court ordered workers to end a strike that has hit output and miners were likely to return to work by Tuesday night.

July platinum <PLN7> ended down $7.70 at $1,343.20 an ounce. Spot platinum <XPT=> fetched $1,333.00/1,338.00.

London-based ETF Securities Ltd. said on Friday its platinum ETF <PHPT.L>, launched on April 24, had attracted 8,307 ounces of platinum worth $10.9 million. For details on ETFs, double-click on <EXTGOLD/INFO> .
June palladium <PAM7> dropped $3.25 to close at $375.95 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD=> was quoted at $370.00/374.00.


mama mia
09.05.2007, 08:23
...einfach mal der Vollständigkeit halber :schwitz man kommt ja fast nicht mehr drumrum :rolleyes

Uran strahlt ins Depot

Von Ingo Narat
Immer höher, immer schneller: Der Uranpreis scheint jeden neuen Rekord ein ums andere Mal übertreffen zu wollen. Vor vier Jahren wurde das halbe Kilo noch zu einstelligen Dollarpreisen gehandelt. Vor vier Wochen sprang der Preis des nuklearen Energiespenders locker in die Dreistelligkeit; Anfang Mai galten 120 Dollar als das neue Maß der Dinge.

FRANKFURT. Und in der ganzen Zeit hat der Preis nicht einmal korrigiert. Wann hat es in der Finanzwelt so etwas schon gegeben? Wohl noch nie.

Den jüngsten Coup landete die Warenterminbörse in New York. Am Montag startete die Nymex den Handel mit Terminkontrakten auf Uran. Und das mit einem Paukenschlag: Für den Juni-Kontrakt wurden in der Spitze 140 Dollar gezahlt.

Die Uran-Enthusiasten hoffen darauf, dass die Nymex-Initiative den Rohstoff endgültig salonfähig und für breitere Anlegerkreise interessant macht. Bisher schlossen Förderer und Verbraucher wie Versorgungsunternehmen meist direkte Lieferverträge – damit blieb kein Raum für den Einstieg von Privatinvestoren in das Geschäft mit dem sensiblen Metall.

Trotz der Super-Hausse sind nur wenige Investoren auf den Zug aufgesprungen. Vertreter dieser Minderheit reiben sich die Hände. Aktien von Fördergesellschaften und Explorationsunternehmen entpuppten sich als wahre Reichmacher. Die Aktie des kanadischen Weltmarktführers Cameco ist heute zehn Mal so teuer wie vor vier Jahren. Ein Explorationsunternehmen wie Paladin Resources war damals an der Börse Sydney für ein paar australische Cent zu haben und kostet derzeit fast zehn Dollar.

Neuerdings mischen auch Zertifikateemittenten und Fondsanbieter in diesem Aktiengeschäft mit. Adressen wie Merrill Lynch, ABN Amro, UBS, Société Générale, DWS und Axxion haben das nukleare Anlegerspiel entdeckt. Sie argumentieren mit Engpässen bei Energieträgern wie Öl und setzen im Zuge der Klimadebatte auf die Renaissance der Nuklearenergie, einer Energiequelle, die ohne die beklagten Emissionen von Treibhausgasen auskommt.

Angesichts der steigenden Nachfrage für Uran und des begrenzten Angebots denken die Optimisten schon über die nächsten Preisziele nach. Der deutsche Fondsmanager Werner Ullmann gerät beim Thema Uran ins Schwärmen und glaubt fest an 200 Dollar. Weiss Research in den USA erklärt knapp 300 Dollar zum nächsten Etappenziel. Die Zeit ist jetzt wohl reif für Superlativen: Einige Wagemutige aus der Uranindustrie nehmen bereits die 1000er-Marke in den Blick.

So ist die magische 1000 wieder im Spiel. Erinnerungen werden wach an den umstrittenen Fondsguru Bernd Förtsch, der in der Interneteuphorie ein Kursziel in gleicher Höhe für eine damals bei rund 300 D-Mark notierende Aktie ausgab – die dann kollabierte und die investierten Anleger ruinierte. Das wird hier kaum passieren. Aber Vorsicht tut Not. Viele Uranaktien sind nach ihren Höhenflügen überaus ambitioniert bewertet.


mama mia
09.05.2007, 08:35

silberinfo-Marktbericht: Konsolidierung bald abgeschlossen :)

Konsolidierung bald abgeschlossen

Gold: Bis Mitte der vergangenen Woche wurde Gold abverkauft und erreichte am Mittwoch einen Preis unter 670 USD/Unze, konnte sich dann aber am Donnerstag und Freitag wieder deutlich über 680 USD/Unze erholen. Das Muster war ähnlich wie schon eine Woche früher. Am Freitag Abend wurde eine Unze Gold zuletzt für 686,90 USD/Unze gehandelt, +8 USD/Unze höher als in der Vorwoche. Ausschlaggebend für die Erholung des Goldpreises waren unter anderem die US-Arbeitsmarktdaten, welche eher enttäuschend ausfielen.

Wir betrachten die gegenwärtige Situation mit hoher Volatilität als typische kurzfristige Konsolidierungsphase im Aufwärtstrend. Die vor zwei Wochen überkaufte Marktsituation dürfte mittlerweile abgebaut sein. Als nächstes Kursziel sehen wir nach wie vor 730 USD/Unze.

Silber: Parallel zum Goldpreis fielen auch die Silbernotierungen zu Beginn der Woche unter die wichtige Marke von 13,40 USD/Unze zurück, konnten sich dann aber am Donnerstag wieder erholen und am Freitag wurde dann diese Marke wieder zurück erobert. Der Wochen-Schlusskurs lag bei 13,41 USD/Unze, nahezu unverändert zur Vorwoche (-0,02 USD/Unze).

Auffällig ist die gegenwärtige relative Schwäche des Silberpreises gegenüber dem Goldpreis (welcher auf die ganze Woche gesehen zulegen konnte!). Das fehlende Momentum könnte sich im Falle einer Korrektur negativ auswirken, doch sind wir aktuell zuversichtlich, dass mit dem Abbau der überkauften Situation am Silbermarkt der Aufwärtstrend nun wieder aufgenommen werden sollte.

Der Silberminen-Index SIX konnte hingegen zulegen und schloss bei rund 132,8 Punkten, +4,6 Punkte höher als in der Vorwoche.

Der iShares Silver Trust Silber-ETF verfügt nach den offiziellen Angaben aktuell über ein Inventar von 135,82 Millionen Unzen Silber – knapp eine Million Unze mehr als in der Vorwoche.

Platin: Der Platinpreis konnte sich insbesondere am Freitag stark erholen und erreichte zuletzt einen Handelspreis von 1329 USD/Unze, +34 USD/Unze im Wochenvergleich.

Nach wie vor sind die geplanten ETF’s das bestimmende Thema am Platinmarkt – deren Realisierung ist mittlerweile z.T. beschlossene Sache, z.T. sehr wahrscheinlich, obwohl viele Edelmetall-Profis lange nicht daran glaubten. Insgesamt sehen wir in einer Investition in das Schwestermetall Palladium allerdings langfristig weiterhin die grösseren Chancen als bei Platin.

Palladium: Wie die Preise der anderen Edelmetalle konnte sich auch Palladium der Korrelation mit den anderen Edelmetallmärkten nicht gänzlich entziehen. Allerdings erfolgte auch hier eine Erholung auf das Wochenende hin; eine Unze wurde am Spot Markt New York zuletzt für 375 USD/Unze (+ 5 USD/Unze) gehandelt.

Nach und nach rückt Palladium wieder ins Zentrum der Investoren-Aufmerksamkeit, indem neue Anwendungen bekannt werden und Palladium-ETF’s lanciert werden. Als nächstes Kursziel sehen wir 405 USD/Unze.


Zum Original-Beitrag (http://showthread.php3?p=1039457#post1039457)

mama mia
09.05.2007, 08:40
Where have all the gold bugs gone?
Commentary: Contrarians see bullish good news in their departure

By Mark Hulbert (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+104+117+108+98+101+114+116&y=Mark+Hulbert&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bc4302876-d36a-42a8-8fca-baf372e6d432%7D&siteid=yhoof), MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:04 AM ET May 9, 2007

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Contrarians are beginning to see significant upside potential in the gold market.
That's because the majority of gold-timing newsletters have remained out of the gold market or outright short, despite strength in the gold market that has brought the yellow metal to within shouting distance of a 12-month high.
Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HGNSI stood at just 14.3%.
As recently as April 25, just nine trading sessions ago, the HGNSI stood at 57.1%. On that day, an ounce of gold traded for $684 - about $3 per ounce lower than where it is trading today. (These prices reflect the London P.M. fixing price )
This all adds up to an extraordinary divergence over the past two weeks. Normally, of course, gold timers tend to become more and less bullish as bullion rises and falls. But this most definitely has not been the case since April 25: Even though gold bullion is now higher than then, the average recommended gold exposure among gold timing newsletters is some 43 percentage points lower.

This is quite bullish from a contrarian point of view, since it suggests a significant amount of skepticism among gold market timers. Bull markets like to climb a wall of worry, and what we're seeing among the gold market timers is a very steep wall indeed.
Another revealing comparison is with the gold market in mid February. On February 16, for example, the HGNSI stood at 75% and gold bullion traded at $665.10. ( Read February 19 column. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/whats-holding-gold-back/story.aspx?guid=%7BCD0EE00B%2D4A3D%2D4B69%2DA011%2DB895665FC5BF%7D))
So over the past three months, while gold bullion has tacked on more than $20 per ounce, the average gold timer has reduced his recommended exposure to the gold market by more than 60 percentage points.
You rarely see divergences that are this dramatic.
http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/gifquotes/story-med-ss.img?symb=38099902&time=4&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa:0&comp=HUI&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&state=0&sid=2213&startdate=&enddate=39210&nosettings=1&style=1012&size=2&mocktick=1&rand= (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=38099902)
To be sure, many of you may be inclined to account for the gold timers' unexpected pessimism in terms of recent weakness among gold shares, which have performed significantly less well than bullion itself. Over the past month, for example, over which bullion has risen about 2%, the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/hui) :
341.39, -4.85, -1.4% ) has fallen about 2%.
But I'm not so sure the gold shares' weakness shouldn't be considered a symptom of the gold timers' despair, rather than the cause. After all, if investors believed that bullion's price was going to rise strongly in coming months, then gold shares would also be trading for a lot higher prices. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

mama mia
09.05.2007, 15:58
:schwitz immer diese langen Artikel :schwitz

Why the silver price is set to soar

http://www.moneyweek.com/images/article.gif 30.04.2007

Precious metals remain the most undervalued of all the asset classes. Precious metals, and particularly silver, remain the most undervalued of all the commodities. Silver is even more undervalued than gold and is undervalued when compared to other strategic commodities such as oil and uranium.

Silver is currently trading at just below $14 per ounce. Gold Investments continue to believe that silver will surpass $20 per ounce in 2007, its non inflation adjusted high of $48.70 per ounce before 2012 and its inflation adjusted high of some $130 per ounce in the next 8 years.

The fundamentals reasons for our very bullish outlook on silver is due to continuing and increasing global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks; silver’s historic role as money and a store of value; the declining and very small supply of silver; significant industrial demand and most importantly significant and increasing investment demand.

Silver price: global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks

Property markets and equity markets in the western world are near or at all time record highs. There is increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty in the form of the sharp slowdown in the US housing market, increasing trade friction between the US and one of their prime creditors China (the negative impact of the introduction of US trade tariffs on Chinese paper products and the US’ WTO piracy claim may not have been fully realised by and priced into the financial media and the markets) and the continuing geopolitical tensions with Russia, Venezuela and in Iraq, Iran and the wider Middle East. These factors look set to at least curb returns in most property and equity markets.

Indeed these and other significant risks such as record debt levels in the western world, the huge and unprecedented US trade, budget and current account deficits and the massive fiscal profligacy of the Bush administration are not subsiding. These factors have ramifications for the predominant global reserve currency of recent times – the US dollar.

The IMF, World Bank and OECD have warned that the global economy faces increasing "downside risks" including rising oil prices, falling stock markets and trade imbalances. The IMF’s semi-annual World Economic Outlook (released April 5th 2007) said an economic slowdown in the US would have only a modest global impact if it were confined to the property sector.

The IMF report warned, however, that the shock to the global economy could be more significant if the property downturn spread to consumer spending and business investment. This seems likely as the US consumer is more indebted now since 1933 with little or no savings whatsoever. The Comptroller Auditor General of the US, David Walker stated “last year (2006) was the first year since 1933 that Americans spent more money than they took home and, as you probably recall, 1933 was not a good year for the United States.”

The US’ national gross debt is $8,883,212,488,519 trillion ($8.8 trillion) and growing. When George Bush came to power US’ national gross debt was $5.7 trillion. Even the most sanguine, tunnel-visioned bull would have to admit that the fundamentals of the US economy are bad and deteriorating.

Other long term risks and challenges facing the global economy come in the form of the threats posed by a bird flu pandemic, peak oil and global warming.

Silver price: historic role as a store of value

Thus the monetary metals and safe haven assets of gold and silver are likely to continue to outperform other asset classes. Also they are likely to outperform other commodities such as the base metals, oil and uranium. These commodities would be likely to experience a fall in price were there to be a significant slowdown in the global economy which would create demand destruction.

Because of their historic and continuing role as monetary or currency metals and as safe haven assets gold and especially silver are likely to outperform. This is because they are not simply commodities but also currencies which cannot be debased like our modern fiat paper and electronic currencies.

Gold and silver has been used as money in more regions and countries and for longer periods of time than the relatively modern use of paper currencies. Interestingly, silver has been used in more regions and countries and for longer periods of time as money than gold. Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman, said of silver "The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold.” In Mexico today, there is a movement to return to using silver as money with a bill being put before by the Mexican Congress by Hugo Salinas. The currency of India is the rupee and it comes from the Sanskrit word ‘raupya’ which meant silver or coin of silver. The French word for money is ‘argent’ which came form the Latin argentum meaning silver. The franc was established as the national currency by the French Revolutionary Convention in 1795 as a decimal unit (1 franc = 10 decimes = 100 centimes) of 4.5 g of fine silver.

Most countries in the world used silver for smaller denomination coins in the 19th Century and through the 20th Century up until the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s when currencies were gradually debased. Debase means to degrade, dilute or devalue. For instance, in the US up until 1965, silver dimes and quarters were made of 90% pure silver. In 1965, the US government debased and devalued the currency and reduced the silver content to 40% pure silver. These legal tender silver bags are still bought today by savvy investors.

Silver price: declining supply

Before looking at the demand side of the silver equation it is important to consider the supply side.

In 1900 there were 12 billion oz of silver in the world. By 1990, the internationally respected commodities-research firm CPM Group say that figure had been reduced to around 2.2 billion ounces of silver. Today, that figure has fallen to about 300 million ounces in above ground refined silver. It is estimated that 95% of the silver ever mined has been consumed by the global photography, technology, medical, defence and electronic industries. This silver is gone forever.

CBS Marketwatch published an article in March 2007 entitled ‘Silver may shine brightest among metals’, in which Kevin Kerr wrote that “Due to current supply/demand trends, the amount of silver above ground is projected to shrink to a critically low level in 2010. As supply shrinks, prices will keep rising steadily to new highs. Many in the investment world are unaware of this part of silver's story. Industrial demand has been outstripping mining supply for the past 15 years, driving above ground supply to historically low levels.”

Silver production was flat this year and is expected to be flat again next year. Incredibly, the amount of mined silver has been less than its demand every single year for the last 15 years. This hasn't resulted in significantly higher prices yet because the world has been able to fill the gap from inventories and official government stockpiles.

However, today the U.S. government's stockpile is all but gone, and sales from other official sources, such as China, Russia and India, are declining, too. The decline in refined silver stocks, from around 2.2 billion ounces in 1990 to around 300 million ounces today means that silver stocks are near an all time low.

The supply of silver is inelastic. Silver production will not ramp up significantly if the silver price goes up. Supply didn't increase in the 1970’s when silver rose 35 fold in price – from $1.40/oz in 1971 to a high of nearly $50/oz in 1980. Importantly, silver is a byproduct metal and some 80% of mined silver is a byproduct of base metals. Higher prices for silver will not cause copper, nickel, zinc, lead or other base metal miners to increase their production. In the event of a global deflationary slowdown demand for base metals would likely fall thus further decreasing the supply of silver.

There are only a handful of pure silver mines remaining. This inflexible supply means that we cannot expect significant mine supply to depress the price after silver rises in price. It is extremely rare to find a good, service, investment or commodity that is price inelastic in both supply and demand. This is another powerfully bullish aspect unique to silver.

Silver price: significant and increasing industrial demand

Another important factor as to why silver is likely to outperform other asset classes and commodities besides the declining silver supply is increasing industrial demand.

Why is this indispensable metal in such demand? The reasons are simple. Silver has a number of unique properties including its strength, excellent malleability and ductility, its unparalleled electrical and thermal conductivity, its sensitivity to and high reflectance of light and the ability to endure extreme temperature ranges.

Silver has the highest electrical conductivity of all metals, even higher than copper. It was used in the electromagnets used for enriching uranium during World War II (mainly because of the wartime shortage of copper). Silver has the highest thermal conductivity and optical reflectivity of all metals. Silver’s unique properties restrict its substitution in most applications.

Non investment demand for silver is based primarily on industrial demand including electrical, medical and photography and also in jewellery and silverware. Together, these categories represent more than 95 percent of annual silver consumption. In 2005, 409.3 million ounces of silver were used for industrial applications, while over 164.8 million ounces of silver were committed to the photographic sector, and 249.6 million ounces were consumed in the jewellery and silverware (‘don’t sell the family silver’) markets. Jewellery and silverware are traditionally made from sterling silver. Sterling silver is 92.5 % silver, alloyed usually with copper.

Industrial applications for silver have always been significant but have increased significantly in recent years. Industrial applications for silver have increased since 2001 to a record in 2005, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. In their most recent report, they predict a 6% growth rate in industrial applications of silver in 2007. Silver is used in film, mirrors, batteries, medical devices, electrical appliances such as fridges, toasters, washing machines and uses have expanded to include cell phones, flat-screen televisions and many other modern high tech devices.

Increasing industrial demand for silver is forecast due to strong economic growth in China, India, Vietnam, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies in Eastern Europe, Asia and the world. Growing middle classes are now demanding the quality of life and standard of living enjoyed by many in the West and thus the demand for silver will increase.

Silver is known as the healthy metal and has many and increasing medical applications. While silver's importance as a bactericide has been documented only since the late 1800s, its use in purification has been known throughout the ages. "Born with a silver spoon in his mouth" is also a reference to health as well as wealth. In the early 18th century, babies who were fed with silver spoons were healthier than those fed with spoons made from other metals, and silver pacifiers found wide use in America because of their beneficial health effects.

Today silver is used in many health-care products. Specifically, the ‘silver bullet’ is used by nearly every hospital in the world to prevent bacterial infections in burn victims and allow the body to restore naturally the burnt tissue. Increasingly, wound dressings and other wound care products incorporate a layer of fabric containing silver for prevention of secondary infections. Surgical gowns and draperies also include silver to prevent microbial transmission. Other medical products containing silver are catheters and stethoscope diaphragms.

In a world that is showing increasing concern about the spread of diseases and pandemics such as bird flu, silver is being increasingly tapped for its biocidal properties. Research is ongoing on the use of silver and its compounds for therapeutic uses and on its potential use as a disinfectant in hospitals and other medical facilities.

Silver has many unique properties which make it ideal and indeed essential in global industry – especially in the global photography, technology, medical, defence and electronic industries. Yet, silver is a finite resource and the supply of silver is increasing only very incrementally.

Silver price: significant and increasing investment demand

According to the CPM Group, there are some 300 million ounces of refined silver in the world. That means that with silver priced at $14/oz., there is about $4.2 billion (300 million oz x $14) dollars worth of silver in the world. This means that the total silver market capitalisation is a very small $4.2 billion.

The increasing demand caused by investment demand is very compelling. Especially due to a number of key investment factors - the introduction of the iShares Silver ETF, the huge short position, the global liquidity bubble, the significant growth in the global money supply, the proliferation of millionaires, ultra high net worth individuals and billionaires, the proliferation of hedge funds and the exponential growth in derivatives.


Investment demand for silver has also been rising rapidly the past few years with investors hedging themselves against rising inflation, possible currency devaluations and geopolitical and macroeconomic risk.

The silver market is currently in a transitional period where investment demand is starting to have a real impact on silver prices. Much of the new demand comes from iShares Silver ETF launched in April 2006. The fund has so far attracted 120 million ounces of silver investment. It is up nearly 30 million ounces since the start of 2007. It's important to remember that the silver market is very small - only some 300 million ounces.
That means the ETF alone now accounts for more than one-third of the global silver market, and growing investment into the iShares ETF should drive prices much higher. If even a small amount of money flows into the silver market from investors, ultra high net worth individuals (ultra-HNWIs), hedge funds, pension funds and institutions around the world, silver will almost certainly reach the nominal non inflation adjusted high it reached in 1980 of nearly $50 per ounce.

Huge short position

Perhaps the foremost analyst of the silver market today is Mr Theodore Butler. He believes that gold and particularly silver are the laggards in the commodity complex due to price manipulation. At over 300 million ounces, the largest 8 traders on the COMEX are short more silver bullion than exists in total known world inventories, including total SLV holdings and total COMEX inventories.

Butler sums it up succinctly, ”If there is one thing that separates silver from any other asset class, or any other item in any asset class, it is the presence of an unprecedented concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures. It is the existence of this concentrated short position that will, at some point, launch the silver price to the heavens. This short position has grown so large, and is held by so few entities, that it no longer matters how it will be resolved. It must be resolved and, whether that resolution involves default or buying by short covering, it will have the same bullish impact on price. You don’t have to look any further than the concentrated COMEX short position as to why silver has not outperformed every other commodity. Just as it explains price under performance, it is telling you why there must be overperformance in the future. At some point, the price of silver must accelerate upward to price levels that are truly shocking.”

Money Supply

There is some $50 trillion worth of bonds and $40 trillion worth of paper money in the world.

Money supply is increasing at extremely high levels globally. The annualised growth of some national broad money supplies are United States M3 up 10%, Eurozone M3 up 9.0%, UK M4 up 13%, China M2 up 15.9%, South Korea up 10.6%, Australia M3 up 13%, Russia M2 up a staggering 48%.

This has given rise to increasing inflationary pressures, a huge liquidity bubble and to ripe valuations in many stock and property markets.

Huge Increase in Billionaires, Multi Millionaires and High Net Worth Individuals

There has been an unprecedented increase in wealth amongst a tiny segment of the population in recent years. The number of millionaires in the world is multiplying very rapidly and there are now approximately 9 million millionaires in the world. There are approximately 70,000 ultra-HNWIs who have a net worth of more than $30 million.

Forbes recently estimated that there are now a record 946 billionaires in the world. In 2006, there were 178 new billionaires. These included 19 Russians, 14 Indians, 13 Chinese and 10 Spaniards, as well as the first billionaires from Cyprus, Oman, Romania and Serbia.
Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are worth some $51 billion and $40 billion respectively. One man’s net worth increased in one year by multiples of the total value of all silver in the world. Carlos Slim Helo, is a Mexican of Lebanese origin whose net worth increased from $20 billion in 2006 to almost $50 billion in 2007 or by some $30 billion.

All the billionaires' combined net worth increased by $900 billion to reach $3.5 trillion. There are a total of 8.7 million millionaires around the world, representing a total wealth of a mind boggling $33.3 trillion. A trillion is an extremely large number and difficult for most to comprehend. It is one million million or 10 to the power of 12. It is an absolutely huge number and it is important to remain conscious of the sheer size of this number.

Conversely, the total value of all above ground stock of silver is a very small $4.2 billion.

If only a tiny fraction of these millionaires, ultra-HNWIs and billionaires decided to diversify out of their extensive property and stock portfolios and invest even a very small amount of their portfolios in silver it would result in the silver price increasing in price exponentially. Given the extremely strong investment fundamentals of silver this seems likely.

Hedge Funds

Globally, hedge fund’s speculative capital have doubled to more than $2 trillion (or two thousand billion) in the last three years. Some hedge funds have started moving into the silver market. Charles Supapodok of Artemis Capital Management is seeking to raise a $300 million hedge fund to invest mainly in silver. Artemis Silver Fund, advised by Artemis Capital Management, will put 80 percent of the fund's holdings in silver.

Again due to the incredibly small size of the global silver market if even only a percentage of the roughly 9,000 to 10,000 hedge funds in the world decide to take positions in the silver market the price will increase in value by multiples.


The Bank for International Settlements has estimated that the total value of derivatives contracts was $450 trillion at the end of 2006 (up from $260 trillion in June 2006) and is increasing exponentially.

There is still a debate as to whether derivatives are a good or a bad thing. Ben Bernanke and most in the financial industry believes they are good as they create liquidity and help spread risk throughout the system. Greenspan was a little more sceptical and warned that they could create ‘moral hazard’ as they did when LTCM collapsed in 1998 sending shockwaves through the financial system. He also warned that they could lead to "cascading cross defaults."

Warren Buffett is similarly not as sanguine: “Charlie [Munger] and I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other. The troubles of one could quickly infect the others. . . . Linkage, when it suddenly surfaces, can trigger serious systemic problems.”

“The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts.”

For this reason Buffett has called derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction.”

The systemic risk posed by the near infinite creation of hundreds of trillions of dollars of derivatives means that the finite currencies and safe haven assets of gold and silver are likely to be diversified into increasingly.

If only a tiny fraction of the humongous derivatives market was to reallocated into the silver market, silver would increase in value exponentially.

Silver's price history

Silver remains historically undervalued. Despite the incredibly bullish fundamentals outlined silver has so far underperformed nearly all the other commodities. Silver has gone from below $5 to some $14 and is up some 190% in the last 7 years.

This seems like a lot but when compared to other commodities and metals it is very little:

Oil is up from $10 to $63 or 600% and more than 6 fold.

Zinc from $.35 to a high of $2.00,. now $1.50/lb or nearly 5 fold.

Copper, from $.75 to a high of $4.00, now $3.58/lb or nearly 5 fold.

Lead from $.20 to $.90/lb or nearly 5 fold.

Nickel from $3 to $22/lb or more than 7 fold.

Indium, Molybdenum, Selenium, Cobalt are all up 1000% or 10 fold and more.

Uranium is up a phenomenal 1300% or 13 fold.

Many commodities are up between 5 and 13 fold. Silver is not even up 3 fold. If silver were to catch up with these other less rare and less precious metals, it would have to increase in value by some 500%. From the bottom at some $5/oz in 2001, that would result in silver being valued $25.

Silver reached $50 briefly in 1980 when just one billionaire Bunker Hunt (one of a handful of billionaires in the 1970’s) attempted to corner the silver market causing the price to surge (in conjunction with many investors seeking to hedge themselves from the stagflationary 1970’s). A lot of technical orientated analysts, investors and hedge funds are looking at this figure and as nearly all the other asset classes and commodities are all at near all time records there is every reason that silver will do likewise in the coming years.

Silver is priced at some $14/oz today. The average price of silver in 1979 and 1980 was $21.80/oz and $16.39/oz respectively. In today’s dollars and adjusted for inflation that would equate to an inflation adjusted average price of some $60 and $44. It is for this reason that we believe silver will be valued at over $50 in the next 3 to 5 years.

Why silver is the investment opportunity of a lifetime

Finally, it is important to put today’s total value of all above ground refined silver in the world - $4.2 billion – in context.

$4 billion worth of Boeing planes was bought by Ryanair in 2005. $4 billion was the cost of stamp duty tax on Irish property in 2006. €8 billion worth of overseas commercial property was bought by Irish investors in 2006. Scottish Ministers are in charge of £2 billion (some $4 billion) of tax revenues. Macquarie, the Australian bank, recently acquired the O2 Airwave police radio business for £2 billion. The 2006 Sunday Times Rich List UK estimated that there were 20 people with a minimum wealth of £2 billion (some $4 billion) residing in the UK.

Further context is provided in the fact that the actor Will Smith has had a worldwide career box office of $4.4 billion. Microsoft is growing revenues at over $4 billion a year. In March and April of 2007, just two months, one man’s wealth increased by $4 billion. Since Forbes calculated its 2007 wealth rankings, they recalculated that in two months the Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim’s fortune rose $4 billion to $53.1 billion.

Rarely are there 'no brainers' in life and very rarely are there ‘no brainer’ investment opportunities. Invariably, ‘too good to be true’ investments turn out to be just that.

However, this is not the case with silver. It remains the investment opportunity of a life time.

Silver is unique in terms of being both a monetary and an industrial metal and having the highest optical reflectivity and the highest thermal and electrical conductivity amongst all metals. Silver industrial and investment demand is increasing very significantly and meanwhile supply is falling. The fact that the huge majority of the investment public and financial services industry remains ignorant of the fundamentals in silver means that the bull market in silver remains in it’s early stages. Silver remains probably the most undervalued asset class.

How to Speculate in Silver

• Silver options and futures
• Silver ETF
• Silver mining stocks
• Spread bet silver

How to Invest in Silver

• Perth Mint Government Silver Certificates
• Allocated and unallocated silver accounts
• 1000 troy oz bars – (weigh some 31 kgs) These bars are COMEX good delivery bars.
• 100 troy oz bars – (weigh some 3.11 kgs) These bars are among the most popular with retail investors. Popular brands are Engelhard and Johnson Matthey.
• 90% Silver Bags
• 40% Silver Bags
(Pre-1970 U.S. legal tender 90% and 40% silver coins, which were used as money until they were replaced by the precious metal free coinage introduced in 1970 and used today. Bags of U.S. dimes, quarters, half-dollars containing 90% silver or 40% silver are traded based on their precious metal silver weight.)

Silver bars and silver bags can be taken delivery of but due to the volume, weight, difficulty to store securely and cost of insured delivery most investors buying silver in volume opt for unallocated and allocated silver accounts or government silver certificates due to their being no annual and ongoing storage/ insurance fees.

Mark O'Byrne is the Managing Director of Gold and Silver Investments Limited, Ireland's Asset Diversification and Wealth Preservation Specialist ( www.gold.ie (http://www.gold.ie/) ). He is regularly quoted and writes in the financial media and was awarded Ireland’s prestigious Money Mate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.

mama mia
09.05.2007, 22:45
Gold closes lower, pressured by fall in crude oil

By Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B6e94be7c-8864-4267-883d-b1ec27dc9cb9%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:13 PM ET May 9, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed lower Wednesday, as crude-oil prices plunged, dragging metals prices down along with them.
Before the Federal Reserve announced that it kept rates on hold as expected, gold for June delivery ended down $4.90 at $682.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Despite indications that waiting for the Fed to decide the fate of interest rates was going to at least hold gold near $685, the falling price of crude oil impacted the bullion market first," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Any post-Fed rebound may indeed be feeble at this point, as the market appears to be looking for renewed tests at lower levels," Nadler said.
Crude-oil futures fell 1.1% Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed that crude-oil supplies made their biggest climb since mid-January and gasoline inventories rose for the first time in three months. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-crude-supply-sees-biggest/story.aspx?guid=%7B3B4D852B%2DB609%2D4A69%2DBC83%2D7232EE59093B%7D)
After the close of metals trading on Nymex, the Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.25% in line with market expectations. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/fed-holds-rates-steady-makes/story.aspx?guid=%7B24B48064%2DBB61%2D4223%2DA20E%2D95513318767F%7D)
"The latest Fed decision should have little or no impact on the secular bull market in gold past a few hours or days," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. "There's no way the Fed can raise rates, especially after they noted the housing decline is still 'on-going.'"
"This means little help for the terminally ill U.S. dollar, other than short-covering rallies and profit-taking," Grandich said. "Gold's ability to march towards $700, albeit slower than some expected, is a testament to the physical demand in the face of heighten central bank selling and bears trying to cap the market."
In after-hours, electronic trading, gold futures fell $5.10 to $682.30 an ounce. After the Fed decision, the dollar edged higher against the euro. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-edges-higher-after-fed/story.aspx?guid=%7B94547F6D%2D34D1%2D4006%2DB650%2D98B0642D8DB8%7D)
In its policy statement, the Fed repeated the key statement that it could choose to move rates in either direction depending on the data even though inflation risks remain the paramount concern.
The Fed made only a few changes from its March 21 statement. In a nod to the weak first-quarter growth rate, the Fed said growth had slowed, and adjustments in housing were ongoing.
The Fed made no changes to its inflation outlook, saying that core inflation remains "somewhat elevated" and "although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures."
"With the Fed telling the market they are keeping a close eye on inflation caused by huge amount of liquidity in the system places them in a difficult position," said Peter Spina, analyst at GoldSeek.com.
"A weakening economy and inflationary problems leave them with two options: sacrifice the dollar or the economy," Spina said. "The market appears to agree that the US dollar will be a victim of the situation, which will result in taking gold to much higher levels."
Also on Nymex Wednesday, July silver fell 13.0 cents, or 1%, to $13.470 an ounce, July platinum fell $3.70 to $1,339.50 an ounce, and June palladium fell $5.55 to $370.40 an ounce.
July copper ended down 4.35 cents, or 1.2%, at $3.6790 a pound.
Peru's gold production fell 14% in March compared with the same period last year, the country's Ministry of Energy and Mines said Wednesday.
"We've seen Peruvian production falling 20%, 16% and 14% in the last several months," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard. "These are huge figures for the fifth-largest global gold producer. These are the types of trends our long-term investors need to be looking at to understand the underlying strength of the gold market."
"South African and Canadian gold production is taking a swan dive while U.S., Australian and Peruvian production is continuing to slip lower," Ryan said. "Production figures are picking up in areas like China, Indonesia and other countries, but not enough to reverse trends like we've seen in the top mining countries over the previous decade."
Inventories and indexes
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories fell by 55,300 troy ounces to stand at 7.62 million troy ounces as of late Tuesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose by 594,915 troy ounces to stand at 132.3 million troy ounces, while copper supplies were unchanged at 32,506 short tons.
In company news, Rio Tinto shares surged to a record high on Wednesday, driven by overnight speculation that Australia's BHP Billiton
BHP (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=BHP)53.41, +2.51, +4.9% had unsuccessfully mounted a takeover bid for the world's third-largest miner.
The shares jumped as much as 19% to $314.49 in New York trading and were last up 13.5% at about $300, part of a 21% jump since last week on hopes of a Rio Tinto-BHP deal. The move would give Rio Tinto (RTP (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/rtp) :
Last: 296.27+31.62+11.95%
4:19pm 05/09/2007http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?style=1032&size=1&type=256&uf=8192&time=1dy&freq=1mi&symb=RTP
[url="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/financials.asp?symb=RTP&dist=mktwstoryfinancials"] (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/rtp) whose shares are also traded in London and Sydney, a market capitalization of more than $75 billion. Read more. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/rio-tinto-surges-record-high/story.aspx?guid=%7BA63B24C9%2D22B3%2D4999%2DAB6F%2D4E4228F74C80%7D)

mama mia
10.05.2007, 22:44
DJ PRECIOUS METALS: NY Gold Falls As Dollar Firms, Stops Hit
By Allen Sykora


A recent correction lower in gold and silver accelerated Thursday when the
dollar firmed and sell stops were tripped in the metals, analysts said.
Speculators liquidated positions.

Meanwhile, some analysts continue to offer differing views on the
significance of gold sales by European central banks lately.

June gold fell $15.50 to $667 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange. Shortly after pit trade closed, the June contract at the
Chicago Board of Trade was down $15.50 to $667.30.

Comex July silver fell 33 cents to $13.14. As it was closing, CBOT July
silver was down 35.2 cents to $13.121.

The metals have been correcting in recent days, and that pace picked up when
the dollar regained some of its recent weakness, traders said.

"The dollar has been the fundamental push," said Patrick Lafferty, Commodity
Trading Adviser with Fox Investments, a division of Man Financial. "But the
technicals were lined up for this. It made it a real easy sell. The market's
path of least resistance as already set up to be down. The dollar just
accentuated today's move."

The euro fell to a low of $1.3466 from $1.3528 late Wednesday.

As gold fell, sell stops were hit around the $675 area, said Lafferty. "There
were a lot of stops and we blew right through those."

Then more stops were hit in the area near $670, the low from May 2 and also
roughly the 50% retracement point of the March-April rally, he said. June gold
bottomed at $665.90, its softest level since April 2.

In July silver, stops were triggered around the $13.30 area, said Lafferty.
"The market toyed with them yesterday a little bit when we hit $13.285, but it
bounced pretty quick. But today when we went back down, they couldn't hold it,"
he said. "It went through that support and accelerated and is targeting that
$13 level right now."

Ahead of this, he put some support around $13.10, the "right shoulder" in a
"head-and-shoulders" chart formation.

Several traders and analysts during the course of the day linked much of the
selling to liquidation.

"A lot of speculators have been long," said Lafferty. "They bought into the
fact the market was trying to bottom last week in silver and gold. Now, a lot
of speculators are exiting and liquidating."

George Gero, vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures, said a
large possible rollover out of Comex June gold is weakening the technical

"Over 220,000 June contracts have to be rolled in the next few weeks," he
says. "Banks started selling yesterday and funds followed today. Part of it was
the Fed's resolve on inflation, part of it the dollar."

Analysts and traders continued to debate the impact of some of the recent
gold sales by European central banks.

Neal Ryan, director of economic research with Blanchard and Company,
maintains this is a key factor that has been holding gold back lately.

"It's our belief that the market supply gap is being bridged at present by an
increase in central-bank sales and possibly increased loans and swaps," he said
in a daily research note.

Others acknowledge the sales but downplay the significance, however.

"Central banks are simply exercising a keener sense of market timing," said a
research note from Jon Nadler, analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers. "Aggregate
official sales fell way behind the allowable quota last year. Near-record gold
prices - such as those we have had since February - will simply and logically
elicit a sale that was previously unfilled."

Meanwhile, July platinum fell $15.30 to $1,324.20 an ounce, while June
palladium declined $6.65 to $363.75 an ounce.

"A lot of it is simply spillover from the gold- and silver-market weakness
and the strength in the dollar," said Dan Vaught, futures analyst with A.G.

However, he added, there could be some thoughts that the platinum group
metals may have posted a seasonal peak during their recent run-up, which
carried platinum to a record Nymex high. Automakers tend to be most aggressive
producing vehicles during the second calendar quarter of the year, Vaught said.
If so, there is a lead time in which parts makers are buying platinum group
metals ahead of this.

"They have probably completed a great deal of that buying at this point,
traditionally around the first of May or late April," Vaught said.

He also pointed out that some of the recent jewelry demand from Asia may be
abating now that some of the continent's major holidays are over, such as
Golden Week in Japan.

"That's somewhat of a gift-giving season for them similar to Christmas for us
in the West," Vaught explained. "If that's the case, given their affinity for
platinum jewelry, we may see a bit of a (buying) letdown in the wake of the

Little technical damage has been done to July platinum, even though July has
pulled back from Monday's $1,353.80 peak, Vaught said. Support lies around the
20-day moving average, he said. Shortly after the close, this stood at

June palladium may suffered more technical damage, Vaught said. The market
had closed above the 40-day moving average for weeks, but was below this in
early pit trading this morning. Shortly after the close, this average stood at

Trendline support for June palladium may lie around the $360 area, which
roughly coincides with the upper end of a range the market was in for several
weeks prior to an April breakout.

The markets get a couple of major U.S. economic reports early Friday, which
have the potential to influence the dollar and thus metals. The reports include
the Producer Price Index and retail sales at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). PPI is
forecast to be up 0.6% in April, or up 0.2% excluding food and energy. Retail
sales are forecast to be up 0.4% for both the overall number and the category
excluding autos.

Business inventories, expected to be up 0.3% in March, are due out at 10 a.m.
EST (1400 GMT).

Settlements (includes open-outcry and electronic trading):
London PM Gold Fix: $673.50 versus $683 Wednesday
Spot gold at 1:34 p.m. ET: $655.55, down $15 from previous day; Range:
June gold (GCM07) $667, down $15.50; Range $665.90-$683.20
July silver (SIN07) $13.14, down 33 cents; Range $13.09-$13.50
July platinum (PLN07) $1,324.20, down $15.30; Range $1,318.20-$1,339.50
June palladium (PAM07) $363.75, down $6.65; Range $361-$369

-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;

mama mia
11.05.2007, 08:19
Wirtschaftsnews - von heute 06:47

Shanghai Gold Exchange: Privatperonen sollen handeln können

Shanghai 11.05.07 (www.emfis.com (http://www.emfis.com/))
Zukünftig sollen auch Privatpersonen an der Shanghai Gold Exchange handeln können, dass berichtet die China Business News. Bisher war das nur Institutionen und Banken erlaubt,
Auf die Erweiterung sollen sich, laut dem Zeitungsbericht, im Vorfeld der Mai-Feiertage die Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial Bank, Huaxia Bank und Shenzhen Development Bank geeinigt haben.

mama mia
11.05.2007, 09:43
Eine eindeutige Parallele

Veröffentlich am 10.05.2007 15:07 Uhr von Theodore Butler (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=54)

Vergangene Woche gab Barrick Gold sein Finanzergebnis für das erste Viertel des Jahres 2007 bekannt. Da ich in der Vergangenheit schon einige Artikel über Barrick geschrieben habe, fand ich es passend, deren jüngste Resultate zu kommentieren.

Barrick ist die weltweit größte Gold-Minengesellschaft und traditionell der größte Gold-Short-Verkäufer via Terminverkauf der zukünftigen Produktion. Sie waren auch die ersten, die sich, vor über 10 Jahren, der Praxis des Short-Verkaufs von Gold annahmen, das sie sich von den Zentralbanken liehen (über den Umweg durch Händler). In den Anfangsjahren, lief Barrick auch gut mit dieser Leer-Verkaufs-Strategie, da die Goldpreise bis einschließlich 2001 stagnierten oder fielen. Seitdem boomen die Goldpreise und die Short-Verkauf-Strategie fällt Barrick jetzt selbst auf die Füße, wie man in jüngsten Ertragsbericht lesen kann.

Für dieses Vierteljahr, das am 31. März endete, hatte Barrick einen Nettoverlust von 159 Millionen Dollar zu verzeichnen, aufgrund einer Belastung von 557 Millionen Dollar, die auf Schließung der Short-Verkäufe beruht. Sie kündigten zudem einen noch ausstehenden Verlust von 68 Millionen Dollar, aufgrund von kommenden Short-Eindeckungen nach dem 31. März an. In den letzten Jahren hat Barrick realisierte Verluste von mehr als 3 Milliarden eingefahren - durch den Rückkauf ihres Short-Goldes.

Zum Zweck der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit präsentierte dann Barrick die Deckung der Verkaufpositionen als eine Art Beweis, sie hätten die Sache im Griff. In Hinblick auf die Öffentlichkeitsarbeit mag das stimmen, in finanzieller Hinsicht wohl nicht. Sie haben immer noch offene Short-Positionen über 9,5 Millionen oz - mehr als eine Gesamtjahresproduktion von Barrick. Diese offene Short-Position hat derzeitig einen unrealisierten Verlust von 3,5 Milliarden Dollar - dies kommt zu dem schon realisierten Verlust von 3 Milliarden hinzu. Erwartet man einen kräftigen Anstieg Goldpreises in den kommenden Jahren, so hieße das für Barrick: je 100 Dollar Preisanstieg pro oz Gold, fährt Barrick einen Verlust von 1 Milliarde Dollar ein, bedingt durch die noch offenen Short-Gold-Positionen.

Vor etwa einem Jahr gab ich die Erklärung ab, dass Barrick die höchsten Verluste in der Geschichte bei Derivativen zu verbuchen hat, sie überstiegen selbst die gesamten Gewinne, die seit Bestehen der Gesellschaft gemacht wurden. Dann kam der Hedge-Fond Amaranth, der auch diesen Rekord mit einem Verlust von 6 Milliarden Dollar brach. Barrick fand sich damit auf dem zweiten Platz wieder. Traurigerweise hat es Barrick wieder auf Platz eins geschafft. Der letztendlich dabei entstehende Verlust wird noch zu beziffern sein, da die Short-Positionen noch offen sind.

Der Zweck dieses Artikels besteht nicht allein darin, die ewigen Fehltritte des Managements hervorzuheben, er ist weitaus aufschlussreicher in Bezug auf die Folgen für die Goldminenindustrie und den Goldpreis. Jetzt, da das wahre Ausmaß eines schlecht angelegten, finanziellen Experiments offensichtlich wird, ist es erforderlich, dass sie dies in ihre Investitionsüberlegungen einfließen lassen.
Vor 10 Jahren begann ich mit einer öffentlichen Kampagne, die das entlarven sollte, was ich als Betrug und Manipulation bezeichnetet. Betrug und Manipulation durch Verleih und Terminverkäufe bei Gold und Silber. Ich begann mit einem Brief an den Chairman der Notenbank und den Sekretär des Finanzministeriums der USA im April 1997. www.gold-eagle.com (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler414.html)

So viel ich weiß, war ich der erste, der die manipulativen und zerstörerischen Short-Verkäufe öffentlich attackierte. Ich war von Grund auf überzeugt, dass diese Short-Verkäufe sofort gestoppt würden, wenn man sie erst einmal richtig verstanden habe. Ich wurde traurigerweise missverstanden und war ziemlich naiv. Die Short-Verkäufe erreichten 2001 ihre Spitze.

Aber nicht alle haben meine Vorwürfe und Erklärungen abgetan. Einige sehr scharfsinnige Goldleute wie John Hathaway, James Sinclair, Richard Pomboy, Reg Howe und andere begannen, die Praxis des Goldverleihs und der Terminverkäufe anzuprangern und über sie zu schreiben. Eine Organisation, die gegen die Manipulation im Goldmarkt kämpft (das Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee GATA) wurde 1999 gegründet. Spätere Ereignisse und Goldpreisbewegungen haben bewiesen, dass Verleih und Terminverkäufe den Goldpreis manipulieren.

Eigentlich waren die Goldanleihen als Mittel gedacht, mit dem sich die Minengesellschaften gegen die Risiken eines Preisverfalls für ihre zukünftige Produktion absichern konnten. Es war zudem ein Mittel, mit dem die Zentralbanken Zinsen aus ihren Gold- und Silberbeständen schlagen konnten. Zusammengefasst lässt sich das so darstellen: Die Zentralbanken verliehen Gold, das aus der zukünftigen Produktion der Minengesellschaften zurückgeführt werden sollte, dafür bekommen die Zentralbanken Zinsen. Auf den ersten Blick sah das ganz gut aus - ein Gewinnsituation für alle beteiligten Parteien (besonders für die Händler, die alles arrangierten). Zugegeben, sich gegen Risiken abzusichern ist eine legitime Praxis im Wirtschaftsleben und wer könnte den Zentralbanken vorwerfen, nicht ein bisschen bei den "brach liegenden" Anlagen dazu verdienen zu wollen. Verleih und Terminverkäufe wurden stürmisch begrüßt und man brachte es auf 120 Millionen oz, oder 3.700 Tonnen Gold in den Spitzenzeiten.

Sieht man jedoch vom ersten Eindruck ab und betrachtet diese Transaktionen ganz nüchtern, dann ergibt sich ein anderes, sehr hässliches Bild. Die Bergbauunternehmen hatten sich gar nicht gegen ein Verlustrisiko abgesichert, sondern haben im großen Stil auf einen Preisverfall gesetzt. Das ist eine absurde Wette für einen Ressourcenproduzenten. Das bringt sie in Zwietracht mit ihren Anteilseignern, die (bis auf den letzten Mann und Frau) Anteilseigner sind, weil sie erwarten, dass der Goldpreis steigt. Keiner würde in ein Goldbergbauunternehmen investieren, wenn er erwartet, dass der Goldpreis fällt. Mit den großen Wettspielen mittels der Short-Verkäufe stellen sich viele Minengesellschaften den Erwartungen ihrer Anteilseigner komplett entgegen. Man kann von einem Interessenkonflikt sprechen.

Viel schlimmer noch: Die Short-Verkäufe von geliehenem Zentralbankgold brachte (manipulierte) den Goldpreis nach unten, da tausende Tonnen physisches Gold auf den Markt geworfen wurden. Es handelte sich hierbei nicht nur um Papierverkäufe, es wurde echtes Metall auf den Markt geworfen. Erinnern sie sich daran, dass wir über eine Goldmenge (120 Millionen oz) sprechen, die die viel größer, als die Weltjahresproduktion (80 Millionen oz) ist. Ich habe schon oft die Frage gestellt, was wohl der Effekt für gleich welche Art von Rohstoff wäre, wenn man davon mehr als eine komplette Jahresproduktion auf den Markt brächte. Es würde die Preise zerstören.

Das gesamte Konzept hinter dem Absichern - laut Definition, ein Risikotransfer von einem Produzenten oder Verbraucher auf einen Spekulanten - wurde durch Transaktionen wie Verleih und Terminverkäufe auf den Kopf gestellt. Es ist wichtig, dieses Konzept zu begreifen. Es liegt im Herzen der Rechtfertigung des Future-Handels. Der Handel mit Futures ist nicht fürs Zocken gedacht, wie in einem Kasino, auch wenn es so aufgefasst wird. Der Grund, aus dem wir Rohstofffutures, Rohstoffmarktgesetze und - beschränkungen haben, ist die sich bietende Möglichkeit eines vereinfachten Risikotransfers von kommerziellen Produzenten und Verbrauchern auf einen bereitwilligen Spekulanten. Das gibt dem Markt der Rohstofffutures seine ökonomische Legitimierung.

Aber die Art und Weise, wie der Verleih und die Terminverkäufe gehandhabt wurden, widersprach den Grundsätzen der Rohstoffmarktgesetze. Ersten war nie vorgesehen, dass physisches Material zur Absicherung leer verkauft oder angekauft wird (wie bei Gold- und Silberterminverkäufen). Ursprünglich sollte es sich nur Papierkontrakte handeln (mit der Option auf physische Auslieferung). Die Verfasser der Rohstoffmarktgesetze hatten, zweitens, nie vorausgesehen, dass ein Produzent so dumm sein könnte, sich die eigentlich produzierte Menge an Rohstoffen zu leihen und leer zu verkaufen, da dies den Markt mit zusätzlichem, realem Angebot überschwemmen und somit den Preis der eigenen Produkte nach unten drücken würde.

Verleih und Terminverkäufe bei Edelmetallen hatten zwei unerwünschte Auswirkungen; die Ausschüttung von physischem Material und eine Ausschüttung in Mengen, die sich auf Jahresproduktionen vieler Minengesellschaften beliefen. Kein anderer Rohstoff außer Gold oder Silber hatte eine so perverse Marktsituation zu verzeichnen. Ich verfüge über Wissen und die Erfahrung in Bezug auf die Fundamentalwerte von Angebot und Nachfrage bei Rohstoffen. Ich bin sehr feinfühlig für die Faktoren, die das physische Angebot sowie die Nachfrage beeinflussen, gerade wenn diese Faktoren überprüft und dokumentiert werden können. Die Goldterminverkäufe können ganz einfach dokumentiert werden, da sie von börsennotierten Bergbauunternehmen initiiert wurden und damit in Finanzberichten festgehalten werden müssen. Das war es, was mich am Anfang zum Verleih und zu den Terminverkäufen im Bereich der Edelmetalle zog.

Die großen Mengen an Metall in diesen Terminverkäufen (und den darauf folgenden Rückkäufen) mussten einen Einfluss auf den Goldpreis haben. Erst ging er runter, dann hoch. Am Ende, als der Termingeschäftsrausch im dritten Viertel des Jahres 2001 seinen Höhepunkt erreicht hatte, betrug die Gesamtmenge des auf den Markt geworfenen Goldes 120 Millionen oz (Quelle: Mitsui). Dies stimmt mit dem bedeutenden Tief des Goldpreises, der damals bei 260 Dollar/oz lag, überein. Dann hörten die Terminverkäufe auf und die Rückkäufe begannen. Seit dieser Zeit sind fast 80 Millionen oz des Goldes aus den Terminverkäufen zurückgekauft worden, was den Preis auf 700 Dollar schickte.

Das ist nicht kompliziert. Über 120 Millionen oz des Zentralbankgoldes wurde geliehen und an den Markt verkauft, was den Preis kollabieren ließ und ihn in das Tief des Jahres 2001 stürzte. Dann begannen die Rückkäufe und der Preis stieg an. Bitte halten sie sich die physische Menge an Gold vor Augen - 120 Millionen oz Gold sind mehr als das fünffache der Gesamtbestände der weltweiten Gold-ETFs. Für mich ist das gleichbedeutend mit einem fünffachen Preispotentials (durch Anleihen und Terminverkäufe), als es alle ETFs zusammen besitzen. Vor 10 Jahren wusste ich noch nicht, wann die Leerverkäufe von Zentralbankgold ein Ende haben würden, ich wusste nur, dass es passieren würde. Ich wusste, wenn dies passiert, würden die Preise dramatisch ansteigen.

Jetzt haben wir den Vorteil, zurückschauen zu können. Wir können auf die Preisentwicklung von Gold zurückschauen und auch auf die Dokumentation der Terminverkäufe als auch auf die darauf folgenden Rückkäufe. Schauen sie sich diesen Chart an und sehen sie selbst. Im Pfeildiagramm erkennt man den Zeitpunkt, als die maximale Anzahl an Gold-Short-Verkäufen 2001 erreicht wurde. Sie sollten daraus schließen, dass der Goldpreis bis zu diesem Datum deutlich abfiel - als Folge von großen Mengen Gold, die auf den Markt geworfen wurden. Danach steigen die Preise wieder kontinuierlich und drastisch an, da diese Short-Positionen zurückgekauft wurden. Wenn das nicht Manipulation ist, dann weiß ich nicht was sonst.


Vor zehn Jahren sagte ich voraus, dass es horrende Verluste geben wird. Der gesamte Verlust der Firmen, die dieses Hedging betrieben und 120 Millionen oz Gold leer verkauften, beläuft sich auf fast 25 Milliarden Dollar (realisiert und unrealisiert). Das ist um einiges mehr, als diese Firmen durch ihre operatives Geschäft mit den Goldminen über die letzten 5 Jahren verdienen konnten. Die wahren Eigentümer der Minengesellschaften - die Anteilseigner - wurden 25 Millionen Dollar beraubt, die eigentlich in den Endgewinn eingeflossen wären, wenn diese Firmen sich nicht hätten absichern wollen. Wie stark das Eignervermögen - Dank einer Wertsteigerung der Anteile - noch hätte steigen können (wäre da nicht die Bürde von 25 Milliarden Dollar Verlust) ist unkalkulierbar.

Es ist schon äußerst ironisch (oder eher schon ein Tritt ins Gesicht), dass die Anteilseigner ohne Ausnahme besorgt und widerwillig dem Short-Verkauf-Vorhaben gegenüberstanden - von Anfang an. Die Managementriegen gaben vor, es besser zu wissen als die wahren Eigentümer und bestanden auf diesen Wahnsinn. Ich denke, man kann so weit gehen und sagen, dass dieses schlecht durchdachte und blödsinnige Projekt, der größte finanzielle Managementfehler in der Geschichte der Bergbauunternehmen oder jeder anderen Industrie war. Was jedoch wirklich bemerkenswert ist, ist seine gradlinige Entwicklung - so wie ein Zugunglück in Zeitlupe.

Am bemerkenswertesten von allem ist jedoch, dass ich noch immer keine öffentliche Äußerung von irgendjemanden, der in dieses noch laufende Debakel verwickelt ist, gehört habe. Keiner gibt zu, was für ein stumpfsinniges und wahrhaftiges Desaster dieses ganze Projekt gewesen ist. Kein einziger aus den Kreisen des Bergbaus, der Zentralbanken, der Investitionsbanken und der Forschungseinrichtungen hat öffentlich bekannt, was für ein Mist dieses ganze Ding gewesen ist. Ich denke, im Privaten wurde das schon häufig zugegeben, nie jedoch öffentlich. Die Mitschuldigen werden es wohl auch nie in der Öffentlichkeit zugeben. Wenn dies auch kein Thema für unabhängige Analysten wäre, hätte man nie darüber geredet, meiner Meinung nach. (Anmerkung des Verfassers - nur Mr. Butlers Analysen, sollten wir hier eigentlich sagen).

So wie lautet die Botschaft für Investoren im Allgemeinen? Die Finanzwelt kann ein gefährlicher Platz für ihr Geld sein. Manchmal entstehen scheinbar neue und populäre Trends, die nicht sind, was sie zu sein schienen. Obwohl ihnen keiner eine Garantie gegen Verluste geben kann, ist der beste Ansatz dennoch, alles in Ruhe zu durchdenken und auf ihren klaren Menschenverstand zu vertrauen. Jemand, der sich damals die Zeit genommen hätte, das Short-Verkaufsprojekt durch Leihen und Terminverkäufe näher zu betrachten, hätte zu nur zwei Schlüssen kommen können: 1. Gold und Silber wurden durch diese Short-Verkäufe künstlich gedrückt, deshalb war das Edelmetall eine toller Einkauf. 2. Wenn sie Aktien von Minengesellschaften kaufen wollen, dann vermeiden sie diejenigen, die Short-Verkaufsprojekte betreiben.

Vor zehn Jahren begann ich den Vorzug und die Legitimität der beschriebenen Short-Verkäufe zu hinterfragen. Rückblickend kann man selbst kaum glauben, wie akkurat meine Vermutungen waren, gerade wenn man davon ausgeht, dass das Metall-Establishment meine Bedenken abtat. Dieselbe Sache passiert auch heute wieder mit der konzentrierten Short-Position beim COMEX-Silber.

Ja, wir sprechen über eine eindeutige Parallele zwischen dem Sachverhalt der Goldanleihen und der Terminverkäufe auf der einen Seite und der einzelnen, konzentrierten Short-Position beim COMEX-Silber auf der anderen Seite. Eigentlich ist es eine Art déjà vu. Wir reden über das bekannte Thema - Short-Verkäufe in einer solchen Menge, dass sie sich manipulativ auswirken. Ich bin hier genauso vorgegangen. In beiden Fällen fing ich zuerst oben an. Zuerst schrieb ich an alle erdenklichen Aufsichtsbediensteten - in jeder der beiden Angelegenheiten. Ich wollte sie vorwarnen und ihnen eine Chance geben, sich dem Problem zu zuwenden. In beiden Fällen haben sie es abgelehnt auch nur einen Finger zu heben. Aber auf Dauer brachte es nichts, die Behörden standen einfach nur daneben und taten nichts. Dieselbe Sache wird auch mit der konzentrierten Short-Position beim COMEX-Silber geschehen - nämlich der Markt wird am Ende siegen.

Wichtig ist auch, dass die Terminverkäufe als auch die konzentrierte Short-Position den Preis beider Metalle gedrückt haben. Und genau das war eine große Chance für Investoren. Es geht nicht nur um irgendeine esoterisch anmutende Diskussion über Manipulation. Das ist eine Chance, wie nur einmal im Leben. Gold stand vor einer Weile bei fast 250 Dollar und Silber bei ca. 4 Dollar, dank der Manipulation. Diejenigen, die verstanden haben, dass die Preise künstlich gedrückt wurden und darauf hin handelten, haben es viel besser gemacht, als diejenigen, die annahmen, dass der Markt frei und fair sei.

Es gab auch ein Reihe Unterschiede zwischen den Anleihen und der konzentrierten Short-Position. Zum Beispiel fielen die Leihen nicht buchstäblich unter die behördliche Gesetzgebung. Deswegen habe ich auch an alle - SEC, CFTC und die betreffenden Firmen und deren Rechnungsprüfer - geschrieben. Ich erinnere mich sogar an den Bundesausschuss für Handel (Federal Trade Commission) geschrieben zu haben. Ich war überzeugt, dass die Anleihen und Terminverkäufe nur schlecht verstecktes Dumping waren. Das war ein neues Phänomen und es existierte kein Gesetzeskorpus, der sich damit beschäftigen konnte.

Im Fall der konzentrierten Short-Position an der COMEX gibt es ein fest umrissenes CFTC-Gesetz. Es gibt keine gesetzlichen Ungereimtheiten oder Unstimmigkeit darüber, dass Konzentration zwingend auch Manipulation bedeutet. Deshalb sammelt die CFTC auch Daten. Unglücklicherweise ist das Ausfindigmachen von Daten alles was sie machen, eigentlich sollten sie doch der Konzentration von Short-Positionen ein Ende machen.

Der Hauptunterschied zwischen dem Sachverhalt des Leihens und der Terminverkäufe und der konzentrierten Short-Position ist, dass sich das Problem mit den Terminverkäufen entspannt. Ganze zwei Drittel der Positionen aus den Short-Verkäufen wurden inzwischen zurückgekauft - was die Preise ganz klar beeinflusst hat. Die konzentrierten Short-Positionen beim COMEX-Silber befinden sich immer noch in der Nähe des historischen Höchststandes. Tatsächlich ist sie heute noch viel größer als damals vor einem Jahr, als ich mich bei der CFTC beschweren ging. Es gibt die Möglichkeit, dass diese konzentrierte Short-Position durch so etwas wie einen finalen Sell-Off reduziert wird, aber die Masse muss eines Tage bei steigenden Kursen zurückgekauft werden. Das ist ein wichtiger Grund warum ich langfristig Silber Gold vorziehe - bei Gold hat schon eine bedeutende Auflösung bei der Terminverkauf-Manipulation stattgefunden, wohingegen es beim Silber und der konzentrierten Short-Position noch nicht dazu gekommen ist.

Jeder muss sich die Tatsachen und Fakten anschauen und dann entscheiden, was das Beste für die eigene finanzielle Sicherheit und die der Familie ist. Wenn Sie nicht glauben, dass es purer Zufall war, dass die in meiner Kampagne angesprochenen Entwicklungen nach 10 Jahren (in punkto Goldanleihen und Terminverkäufe) so genau mit den heutigen Erkenntnissen übereinstimmen, dann schlage ich vor, Sie positionieren sich, um die Vorteile zu nutzen. Vorteile wird es reichlich geben, wenn die riesigen Silber-Short-Positionen zurückgekauft und beglichen sind. Ich glaube daran, dass dies einen viel größeren Einfluss auf den Silberpreis haben wird, als man es sich jetzt vorstellen kann.

© Theodore Butler

(Diese Abhandlung wurde vom Silberanalysten Theodore Butler, einem unabhängigen Berater, verfasst. Investment Rarities teilt seine Ansichten nicht notwendigerweise, diese können sich als richtig oder falsch herausstellen.) Exklusiv übersetzt für GoldSeiten.de. Das Original wurde am 08.05.2007 auf der Website www.investmentrarities.com (http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-08-07.html) veröffentlicht.

http://www.butlerresearch.com/images/butler.gif (http://www.butlerresearch.com/)

mama mia
11.05.2007, 10:21
What's Kitco reach got to do with Gold and XAU?

By John Lee http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/bio.gif (javascript:biowindow('bio.html','BIO','top=50,left=200,width=575,height=420')) http://www.kitco.com/images/mailicon.gif (john@losb.net) http://www.kitco.com/images/printicon.gif (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/printerfriendly/may102007.html)
May 10 2007 11:08AM

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/share/bg_trans.gif www.goldmau.com (http://www.goldmau.com/)

With Kitco.com indisputably being the public’s number one choice for precious metals price quotes and information, we set out to investigate any lead/lag relationship between Kitco’s daily reach and the price of Gold and XAU. Before proceeding though, how does one establish Kitco’s reach, and what is reach anyway?

Alexa.com, a website information gathering service defines a webpage’s reach as “the percentage of all internet users who visit a given site". With that in mind, it comes as no surprise that the web’s three most popular websites in terms of reach are yahoo.com, msn.com and google.com respectively.

Kitco meanwhile ranks 1st among its precious metals peers, and overall is among the top 0.01% of websites overall in terms of reach. With Kitco’s sector supremacy now established, below are the 5 year charts for Kitco’s daily reach, the XAU gold bug stock index, and the price of gold.




You can see that the direct correlation between Kitco’s reach and the XAU is uncanny. Kitco’s reach first peaked in January 2004 (green circle) when the XAU peaked at 140 at the exact same time. Kitco’s reach subsequently made its second and higher peak in May 2006 (red circle) when the XAU also peaked at 170 at the exact same time.

The logic beyond this seemingly unfathomable relationship is quite simple. The bull climbs over a perennial wall of worries until the universal euphoria state is reached and that’s when the peak is established.

What’s most interesting is that at the present time, while Kitco’s traffic is still massive, its reach is near the 5 year low. This means that a smaller percentage of overall Internet users are using Kitco. This indicates that we are near the bottom of general public interest for both gold and the XAU. Given that gold is only $30 from its 26 year peak this tells us two things:

A run is likely to start very soon as gold takes out $720.
This imminent gold run will likely surpass $850 to $1,000+/oz. Why? Because the current lackluster level of public interest in gold and precious metals, as reflected by Kitco’s current reach, with gold already at $690, indicates that we are nowhere near reaching the full potential of this run.
All in all, the above stats again reaffirmed our belief that the rest of 2007 will be anything but dull for gold investors.


mama mia
11.05.2007, 22:19
Gold gains, but posts a weekly loss of over $17
Silver, copper futures also up for the day, down for the week

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B881baa18-ab3c-4f5e-bd20-9b495fa50598%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B881baa18-ab3c-4f5e-bd20-9b495fa50598%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:21 PM ET May 11, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed higher Friday, staging a partial recovery from a more than $15-an-ounce drop in the previous session as strength in oil prices and some weakness in the U.S. dollar lent support to the precious metal.
But Thursday's drop in the benchmark June gold contract to its lowest closing level since late March was the biggest contributor to the $17.40, or 2.5%, loss in prices for the week.
'Only about a third of yesterday's damage was offset by today's bounce -- and the mood remains cautious, at best.'
— Jon Nadler, Kitco Bullion Dealers
"A marginal decline in the U.S. dollar gave gold prices the smelling salts they so badly needed after yesterday's swoon," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
But "only about a third of yesterday's damage was offset by today's bounce -- and the mood remains cautious, at best," he said in afternoon commentary.
Gold for June delivery rose $5.30 to close at $672.30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday.
"Gold is recovering after this morning's clearly disappointing retail-sales number and PPI lift," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter of MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.
"Bond bulls are back and the dollar bears seem to have all the ammunition they need to take the greenback down a few pegs at this point, and they likely will," he said in e-mailed comments.
But the contract closed down $15.50, or 2.3%, at $667 an ounce Thursday to mark a seven-week low after the dollar rose to a one-month high against the euro. Read more. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gold-futures-drop-over-15/story.aspx?guid=%7B61812CA4%2D3319%2D47CB%2D8D04%2DABAA503CF056%7D)
Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, said traders were disappointed that gold could not breach the $700 level. That "led to some chart selling, a short-covering rally in the U.S. dollar and an unusually high number of outstanding contracts that need to be rolled over on the Comex," he said. "So, gold is back at the key support level around $665."
"I expect some sloppiness for the near term, but I see the $700 level being taken out before the end of June," he said in e-mailed comments.
Still, sentiment has been "damaged" as gold lost around 3% in the latest slide since April 23, said Nadler.
"Traders are suddenly much more aware of minute details such as the cessation of the May Indian wedding season tomorrow," he said. "The astounding drop in retail sales that hit the markets ... yesterday still should be fully factored in before making any rash trading decisions."
In the backdrop, the dollar dipped against other major currencies after government reports showed weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and benign core wholesale inflation for April. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-drops-soft-retail-sales/story.aspx?guid=%7B2D3BA9A4%2D5877%2D4A3A%2D9395%2D7A4EF663C134%7D)
Higher energy prices pushed up wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, but core inflation was tame again, the Labor Department reported Friday. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/ppi-rises-07-energy-core/story.aspx?guid=%7B5E481A3E%2D2FD7%2D47C9%2D9DD1%2D4B63ACD44AC7%7D)
And U.S. retail sales fell a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in April, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. See full story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/consumer-worries-arise-us-retail/story.aspx?guid=%7B68C48E93%2DBE8F%2D41DB%2DA283%2DCAF6BFBAD05F%7D)
For now, strength in oil prices appeared to provide some support, with higher energy prices raising gold's appeal as an investment hedge. Crude-oil and gasoline futures extended their gains Friday as traders continued to show concern over U.S. gasoline supply levels ahead of the summer-driving season. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gasoline-futures-retreat-set-weekly/story.aspx?guid=%7BADACA2EF%2DF78B%2D4E7E%2D9791%2D481A7264520D%7D)
Other metals prices followed gold higher, with July silver up 16.5 cents to close at $13.305 an ounce, though it was 1.7% below last week's close.
July platinum rose $17.50 to finish at $1,341.70 an ounce, up almost $13 from a week ago. June palladium added $4.90 to close at $368.65 an ounce, finishing below last week's close of $377.
And July copper rose 3.75 cents to close at $3.604 a pound. It's down 4.1% from last Friday.
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories were unchanged at 7.62 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, while copper supplies fell by 464 short tons to stand at 31,529 short tons, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell by 388,487 troy ounces to stand at 131.5 million troy ounces.

mama mia
12.05.2007, 10:40
Casey Files:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/big_gold_logo.jpg (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=7&ppref=GLD007ED0507A)The Iranian Gold Card

By David Galland,
Managing Editor,
BIG GOLD (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=7&ppref=GLD007ED0507A)from CaseyResearch.com
May 14, 2007

In the minds of most, an attack by the U.S. or its allies on Iran would be an act of extreme foolishness. And that's putting it charitably.

Not that the U.S. would actually lose, at least not in military terms. While the precarious position of the U.S. armada in the Persian Gulf -- the narrow shores of which are crowded with all manner of ship-killing missiles, including the deadly Chinese C-802 with its 98% hit rate -- all but assure a loss of American life on a scale of Pearl Harbor, the Iranians, like the Japanese in WWII, have no real chance of prevailing.

The U.S. might lose the battle for the Persian Gulf, but it would certainly win the short conventional war that would follow.

But that assessment doesn't mean the U.S. would come out a winner in the long run; as the minor-league skirmish in Iraq demonstrates on a daily basis, boots on the ground - a prerequisite to proclaiming victory - are boots that quickly become muck-bound.

In fact, the only real winner, should hostilities break out, would be investors in precious metals and energy plays.

The True Cost of War

While the upside for oil in a shoot-out with Iran is clear, there are several reasons why gold and silver will also rally, and strongly so.

One, of course, is the long and unblemished history of the precious metals as a crisis hedge.

Another, less obvious, is that an expansion of the war in the Middle East could very well be the load of straws that break the back of the U.S. dollar. Or, less metaphorically, the direct and indirect costs associated with the war would hurry along the monetary crisis that is already inevitable.

You see, war is not cheap. The price tag on the Iraq War alone is already credibly estimated to ring in at over $2 trillion by the time the sand eventually settles.

The cost of expanding the war to Iran, a conflict that would invariably boomerang back to the "new" Shi'ite-controlled Iraq - as well as Muslim populations from Pakistan to Indonesia and everywhere in between - would put immense pressure on the U.S. Treasury. The raging river of U.S. deficit spending would, almost overnight, turn into a Niagara Falls.

Especially as the war - which, given its scope, could rationally be called WWIII - would be accompanied by upward-spiraling oil prices.

As the chart below shows, gold tracks oil fairly closely. The world runs on energy, and for the foreseeable future, most of that energy comes from oil. As oil prices rise, therefore, so does price inflation... an environment that decidedly favors gold.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey051407.gif War or No War?

Just because attacking Iran would be an invitation to disaster doesn't mean that an attack won't happen. Governments are capable of the most egregious blunders, blunders that in the 20/20 hindsight of history are viewed with incredulity. Among the very long list, we could point to the decisions of both Napoleon and Hitler to invade Russia. And Kennedy's choosing to step into the boots abandoned by France in the rice paddies of Vietnam. And those are just the palest of scratches on the surface.

In the case of Iran, our grandchildren may some day look back and identify October of 2006, when the U.S. deployed a carrier battle group led by the U.S.S. Dwight D. Eisenhower to the Persian Gulf, as being the first spark of the flame that led to conflict. That carrier group has since been joined by the U.S.S. John C. Stennis (March 27), and the French carrier Charles De Gaulle. On May 10, the nuclear powered U.S.S. Nimitz super carrier, the lead ship of its class and one of the largest warships in the world moved into the gulf to relieve the Eisenhower. This is only the second time in history that the U.S. has maintained two carrier groups in the narrow and dangerous waters of the Persian Gulf: the first was during the Iraq war in 2003.

And the saber rattling goes on. At a recent UN conference, the U.S. warned that the Iranians may plan to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as North Korea did in 2003. The underlying message: "And look what the Koreans have done since." At the same time, Iran's president is touring the Persian Gulf states, doubtlessly trying to rally support for his cause.

Even if the U.S., or Israel, is not intending to strike, who's to say the Iranians, feeling threatened, won't give themselves a fighting chance by striking first? Or, that a terrorist cell won't unleash missiles from the Iranian shores to get the ball rolling. Once the shooting starts, who fired the first shot won't much matter. What will matter are the consequences.

And among the most immediate of those consequences will be, according to the Iranians, a closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea route through which oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and most of the United Arab Emirates can be transported.

That means a halt in the shipment of the approximately 16 million barrels of oil that transit through the Strait every day, roughly 20% of the world's daily oil production. By conservative estimates, this alone could send oil to $100 per barrel.

As a preview, consider the oil crisis in the '70s, when members of the OPEC announced they would no longer ship petroleum to nations supportive of Israel, i.e., the U.S. and its European allies... crude spiked 134.6% increase in a 30-day period. Simultaneously, gold rallied for a 72% year-over-year increase in price.

But today, the situation is far more dire. That's because, today, the U.S. dollar is already under extreme pressure due to decades of prolific government spending, spending only made worse by the Iraqi war.

Today, there are over six trillion U.S. dollars in foreign hands, and worse, those dollars now serve as the world's de-facto reserve currency, littering the vaults of central bankers from Australia to Zanzibar and all the letters in between. That is an unprecedented occurrence in the history of humankind. A further loss of faith in the U.S. government, an inevitable reaction to an expanding war, and sure knowledge of the extraordinary direct and indirect costs of that war would only accelerate and exacerbate the monetary crisis now looming on the horizon.

Bet on war? Despite the saber rattling, it's still a coin toss. But it seems to us, a coin toss gold investors can't lose on.

That's because, on one side of the coin we have the status quo - an inevitable monetary crisis - while on the other we have a war with Iran, sending gold straight to the moon.

Either way, it seems extremely rational to be diversifying into gold - and for the real upside, quality gold stocks - at this critical point in time.

We are in uncharted waters, every bit as dangerous as the overcrowded Persian Gulf.

David Galland is the Managing Editor of BIG GOLD, from Casey Research. For over 27 years Doug Casey and his team have been helping investors profit from contrarian opportunities with the potential to deliver 100% or better profits within the next 12 months. BIG GOLD (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=7&ppref=GLD007ED0507A), a new monthly newsletter, provides time-strapped investors with a one-stop source for critical analysis on today's accelerating gold and silver bull markets and in-depth information on the world's leading gold mining companies, gold ETFs, precious metals mutual funds, and much more. Click here (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=7&ppref=GLD007ED0507A) for a risk-free 3-month trial with money-back guarantee.

Doug Casey

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey_sig.gif http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey051407.html

mama mia
12.05.2007, 10:41
Gold charts

Kevin Lochner
May 12, 2007

"New chart for you, Bob . . ."

click to enlarge http://www.321gold.com/editorials/lochner/lochner051207/gld_510sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/lochner/lochner051207/gld_510.gif) "Here's one more that I like a lot . . ."

click to enlarge http://www.321gold.com/editorials/lochner/lochner051207/gld_511sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/lochner/lochner051207/gld_511.gif) Kevin Lochner
email: klochner@eecs.umich.edu

321gold Ltd - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/lochner/lochner051207.html

mama mia
12.05.2007, 10:50
...bin jetzt für einige Zeit unterwegs - ich guck schon mal zwischendurch rein - vielleicht setzt jemand anders einen Chart/Bericht oder sonst was rein ;) das wäre :supi :verbeug :winke

mama mia
15.05.2007, 11:37

Goldausbruch verzögert

Veröffentlich am 15.05.2007 09:17 Uhr von Jim Willie CB (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=22)

http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/artikel/willie-logo1.jpg (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)Alle Voraussetzungen waren erfüllt: Der Euro schaffte den Ausbruch, wie auch das britische Pfund - der Dollar war entschieden schwach. Der Wechselkurs des Pfund erreichte die 2 Dollarmarke und bekam dafür unheimlich viel Aufmerksamkeit. Die Dementi, die die Schwäche des Dollar klein reden wollten, strömten herein; dies gilt immer als eine Bestätigung für düstere Zustände. Stellen sie sich eine Straßenhure vor, ihre 30 Pfund Übergewicht um den Hüften zur Schau stellend, das Gesicht voller dicker Schminke, die die Reste der vergangenen Weiblichkeit bedeckt. Mit der seit langem verlorenen Ausstrahlung und ihrer tiefen Whiskeystimme behauptet sie, sie sei immer noch im Besitz ihrer starken, sexuellen Anziehungskraft. Der gelähmte US-Dollar kann sich dem Wandel der Zeit und seiner nicht aufzuhaltenden Zerstörung durch uneingeschränkte monetäre Inflation und kolossaler Unverantwortlichkeit nicht widersetzen. Die Schutzgelderpressung öffnet Tür und Tor für Nebeneinkünfte von Führungskräften, die alles in Schatten stellen, was bei Tyco (üppige Mottopartys mit römischen Togas und Goldarmaturen im Badezimmer) noch stillschweigend gebilligt wurde. Die Weltreservewährung ist dabei, sich selbst abzustoßen, indem sie sich erbricht.

Gold erhielt einen harten Dämpfer, bleibt aber standhaft

Jeder der sich wundert, warum Gold keine neuen Höchststände erreicht, obwohl der US-Dollar zur Zeit wankt, sollte einfach nur einen Blick auf die offiziellen Goldverkäufe der Europäischen Zentralbank werfen. Dank gebührt der beharrlichen, professionellen Berichterstattung der Organisation Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA), die über Aktivitäten informiert, die hinter den Kulissen stattfinden. Intrepid Blanchard berichtet, dass die EZB einen Haufen von 76 Tonnen Gold innerhalb von fünf Wochen, bis zum 24. April, verkauft hat - davon allein 17 Tonnen in der fünften Woche. Das entsprach wahrhaftig nicht dem bisherigen Verkaufschema der letzten 6 Monate. Sie haben ganz klar auf den Moment gewartet, um ihr Gold zu verschleudern, in dem der US-Dollar außergewöhnlich schwach war. In einer eklatant unverantwortlichen Art und Weise nennen sie dies "Vorräte abstoßen", bedenkt man, dass Goldbarren die Sicherheiten der Währung, des Bankensystems und ihrer Wirtschaft sind. Diese Keystone Gold Cops können damit jedoch lediglich das unvermeidliche Crescendo des Goldausbruchs verzögern. Neue Höchststände für Gold sind bald zu erwarten.

Im Frühjahr 2006 fiel der Goldpreis von 730 auf 550 Dollar, nachdem die EZB eine gewaltige Menge Barrengold auf den Markt warf. Soviel zur Widerstandsfähigkeit des Goldes, sie ist eindeutig und überaus solide. In eben jener Zeitspanne von fünf Wochen, in denen die jüngsten Verkäufe der EZB stattfanden, stieg der Goldpreis aber von 640 auf 690 Dollar. Er erhielt nur einen kleinen Dämpfer, um sich dann auf einen vorläufigen Niveau von 680 Dollar zu stabilisieren. Sie werden sehen, sobald die Goldverkäufe der EZB nachlassen, wird der Goldpreis die 700 Dollarmarke mühelos übersteigen und neue Höchststände erreichen. Der Druck ist unerbittlich und die EZB-Verkäufe werden beträchtlich abnehmen. Gold wird weiterhin aus den Tiefen dieser verkrüppelten und stupiden Zentralbanken gespuckt werden, im Glauben ein unhaltbares Fiat-Geldsystem stützen zu können. Experten glauben, dass das US-Finanzministerium den westlichen Banken Goldgarantien gegeben hat, bei denen es sich, wie man es im Stil Orwells sagen würde, um "tiefgelagertes" Gold handelt - nämlich um zukünftige Minenproduktion. Doch die Geschichte ist hiermit noch nicht zu Ende.


Die schwachsinnigen Hedger-Minen

Kommen wir zu Barrick Gold, die selbsternannten Mittelsmänner für die Zentralbanken. Im ersten Vierteljahr 2007 gab Barrick 2 Millionen oz Gold in Kontrakten in den Terminmarkt - aus dem säurehaltigen Hedge-Book, das einem schwarzen Loch ähnelt. Und sie machten kolossale Schulden - ganze 557 Millionen Dollar. Warum ein durchaus bekannter Torontoer Analyst (er liefert exzellente Informationen aus China) diese Aktien unterstützt, ist mir einfach unfassbar. Der Kontraktpreis lag bei der Ausgabe 41% unter den derzeitigen Goldpreisen! Barrick brachte es nur ganze 386 Dollar /oz in Q1, das sind 28% weniger als vor einem Jahr. Der durchschnittliche Marktpreis während Q1 betrug 652,8 Dollar/oz. Barrick kündigte an, eine weiter halbe Million oz in Q2 zu verkaufen. Im Jahr 2006 gab Barrick 9,4 Millionen oz Gold in Hedge-Book-Kontrakten heraus, was 62% der weltweiten Gesamtmenge entspricht. Ohne jeden Zweifel fand eine Absprache zwischen dieser schmuddeligen Firma und den westlichen Zentralbanken statt, um den Goldpreis an jeglichen Aufwärtstrends zu hindern. Sie wollten um jeden Preis einen sich über dem US-Dollar zusammenbrauenden Sturm verhindern, der von einem steigenden Goldpreis bestätigt worden wäre. Die EZB hatte einer Limitierung ihrer Goldverkäufe auf 500 Tonnen pro Jahr zugestimmt, aber auch Experten gehen davon aus, dass sie nicht einmal in die Nähe des erlaubten Limits kommen werden.

Mehr noch, das australische Bergbauunternehmen Lihir Gold kündigte eine fast 1 Milliarde Dollar schwere Verwässerung der Aktien an, mit dem Ziel, ihre Hedge-Books schließen zu können, Schulden zurückzuzahlen und eine Expansion zu finanzieren. Sie werden einen Terminverkauf über 934.500 oz schließen, der mit 343 Dollar/oz angesetzt war und eine 480.000 oz Goldanleihe zu einem Preis von 449 Dollar/oz zurückzahlen - beides ein Desaster. Barrick und Lihir zusammen werden dem Markt 1,1 Milliarden oz entziehen und somit den ohnehin schon kritischen Angebotsengpass weiter verstärken. Zudem ergab eine allgemeine Studie von Mitsui über 118 Produzenten, dass die Anzahl der Terminverkäufe durch Goldminengesellschaften im Jahre 2006 um 25% zurückgegangen ist. Somit nimmt das Hedging ab oder kehrt sich oft sogar um, wenn den irregeleiteten, verzweifelten Zentralbankern die Goldbarren fürs Marktdumping ausgehen - sehr ähnlich dem Sicherheitsballast eines Schiffes, das sich in einem schweren Sturm auf hoher See befindet.

Unübersehbare Starrheit

Im Februar 2006 habe ich in meinen Artikel Die Starrheit des Goldangebots ("Inelastic Gold Supply" here (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie020706.html)) einen Versuch unternommen, zu erklären, dass ein Anstieg des Goldpreises in keiner Weise zu einem erhöhten Produktionsergebnis seitens der Bergbauunternehmen führen wird. Es wurden viele Faktoren - von den Hedge-Books über steigenden Kosten bis hin zu einem Arbeitskräftemangel - besprochen. All das passiert gerade. Der neueste Trick der stark abgesicherten Minengesellschaften (z.B. Lihir Gold aus Australien) besteht darin, die Aktien zu verwässern oder auch die Schuldenlast zu erhöhen, um die ausstehenden Rückkäufe aus den Hedge-Books zu finanzieren. Wie auch immer, die Aktie steht nicht mehr so gut da. Falls es nicht die Energiefirmen sind, die ihre Anteile zurückkaufen, anstatt in ihr Unternehmen zu investieren, dann sind es die Goldgesellschaften die ihre Hedge-Books zurückkaufen, anstatt in ihre Unternehmen zu investieren. Der Aufschrei sollte eigentlich schrill und endlos sein, bloß dass Barrick den Zentralbanken gegenüber steht und nicht den Anteilseignern - so wie die großen Energiefirmen in der Verantwortung des Weißen Hauses und des Militärs stehen. Der wichtige Punkt ist allerdings, dass höhere Goldpreise keine erhöhte Goldproduktion mit sich bringen. Das ist das Wesentliche an der Starrheit des Goldangebots. Barrick und andere korrupte Finanzanhängsel für Banker zeugen vom Unvermögen, größere Mengen an Gold bei steigenden Goldpreisen zu produzieren.

Ein wenig schmeichelhaftes Porträt von Barrick Gold wurde schon vor 15 Monaten gezeichnet, jetzt trifft es genau zu. Für diejenigen Amerikaner, die in Chemie-, Mathe- oder anderen wissenschaftlich orientierten Kursen gepennt haben: Wenn Säure und Alkaloid (das Pendant zum Wasserstoffüberschuß) vermixt werden, entsteht harmloses Wasser.

Die Hedge-Book-Verluste von Barrick Gold können nach und nach beziffert werden. Glauben sie nicht, dass die Gewinneinbußen für Firmen wie diese als auch andere Firmen, die Hedge-Missbrauch betreiben, ein für alle Mal vorbei wären. Barrick wurde schon beschuldigt eher eine Finanzfirma zu sein, die sich als Goldminenunternehmen ausgibt und das unausgesprochene Ziel hat, Gold-Terminverkäufe zu tätigen, welche die Produktionsmenge exzessiv überschreiten. Ihre gesamte Existenz kann als eine Anomalie beschrieben werden - höchstwahrscheinlich war sie schon von ihrer Gründung an ein rechtswidriger, körperschaftlich organisierter Hedge-Apparat, ein Werkzeug des Goldkartells. Das Senior-Management stammt aus dem Bereich der Finanzfirmen, nicht Bergbaufirmen, und es besitzt ganz sicher keinen geologischen Hintergrund. Ihr zentraler, unausgesprochener und ungeschriebener Modus Operandi gründete sich auf der Vernachlässigung des Minenbetriebes, was ihre zukünftige (als auch jetzige) Goldproduktion schmälern wird. Die angegebenen 13 Millionen oz in Short-Positionen überdecken bei Weitem jeden zukünftigen Produktionsplan - ein Strom aus Säure in ihrer Bilanzaufstellung, der sich auf ganze 560 Millionen Dollar Verlust beläuft - in einem einzigen - dem letzten - Vierteljahr. Um ihnen die Menge zu verdeutlichen: 13 Millionen oz in Short-Positionen übersteigen den Effektivbestand aller Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Denken sie an die vergangenen sechs Monate und stellen sie sich die schroffe Wirklichkeit in Form von 1000 Millionen Dollar Verlust für Barrick vor.

Jeder, der nicht zu dem Schluss kommt, dass die Übernahme von Placer Dome durch den Wunsch motiviert gewesen ist, Säure mit zulässiger Produktion sowie Geld (Alkaloid) zu vermischen, der ist bestenfalls naiv, im schlechtesten Fall ist er blind. Ihre Short-Position beträgt zusammengenommen 120 Millionen oz Gold. Im Moment scheint der 3 Milliarden Dollar-Verlust in den Barrick-Books schon niederschmetternd zu sein, doch wahrscheinlich ist diese Summe weniger als die Hälfte dessen, was Barrick noch bezahlen muss, damit sie ihr "geniales" Hedge-Book endlich schließen können. Auch hier sollten die Verhältnisse wieder verdeutlicht werden: Ein derartiger, über die Jahre angesammelter Verlust gleicht den gesamten, seit der misslungenen Gründung von Barrick gemachten Gewinn wieder aus. Barrick würde sich hervorragend für eine Fallstudie an einer MBA-Wirtschaftsschule eignen. Eine Fallstudie zum Inbegriff des größten Hedge-Desasters aller Zeiten. Aus meiner Sicht wird es zumindest eine Minengesellschaft geben, sehr wahrscheinlich wird es sich hierbei um Barrick handeln, die beim nächsten Desaster bei den Derivativen vor den Augen der Öffentlichkeit in die Luft fliegt und so zu trauriger Berühmtheit gelangt. Ich vermute, dass Fanny Mae schon längst in die Luft gegangen ist, aber dies gelangte nicht an die Öffentlichkeit, sondern wurde heimlich zugedeckt, unter der Schirmherrschaft der US-Notenbank. Eine andere, böse Mutmaßung ist, dass die US-Notenbank dabei ist, die hypothekengestützten Bonds von Fanny Mae illegalerweise in US-Treasury-Bonds zu verwandeln. Schaut überhaupt jemand hin? Kümmert es irgendjemanden? Sollten Gesetze angewendet werden? Sind Gesetze bei diesem Spiel überhaupt noch von Bedeutung?

Was man aus dieser Gedankenfolge letztendlich herauslesen kann, ist, dass Barrick, wie auch andere Bergbauunternehmen, gezwungen worden sind, ihre wertvollen Geldpositionen aufzubrauchen. Sie haben sich also die benötigten finanziellen Mittel für Investitionen im Bergbaubetrieb versagt, um damit den Vertrag für die Goldproduktion (allem Anschein nach ein Ärgernis) nachzukommen und so den derzeitigen Edelmetallertrag zu sichern. Doch sie werden nie nur annähernd so viel Gold, Silber und andere metallische Nebenprodukte herstellen, was sie nur ihrer Gier, ihrer Dummheit und Arroganz sowie ihrem abwegigen und unaufrichtigen Geschäftsplan zu verdanken haben. Die Ironie der Geschichte zeigt sich erstens in der Tatsache, dass Bergbauunternehmen im großen Stil als Käufer von Goldkontrakten auftreten und, zweitens, darin, dass sie möglicherweise, wenn der Goldpreis steigt, weniger Gold produzieren werden. Sie werden aufgrund akuten Geldmangels austrocknen. Ein Bergbauinvestor müsste sich über die Lippen lecken, geifern und Schadenfreude wegen dieser hoch verdiente Misere empfinden. Die "übersicherten" Goldbergmänner produzieren wirklich weniger bei höheren Preisen.

Im Artikel von Februar 2006 wurden zahlreiche Punkte genannt, die jetzt noch einmal als markante Faktoren für ein systemisches Problem zitiert werden. Als sich der Markt im Tal befand, gab es keinerlei Enthusiasmus auf der Nachfrageseite - ein typisches Zeichen für ein starres System. Als es dann mit dem Markt aufwärts geht - gibt es seltsamerweise auch kein Angebot - das ist wiederum typisch für ein starres System. Der weltweite Ausstoß der Minen sank im Jahr 2006, trotz eines höheren Goldpreises.

Die meisten Menschen sind vertraut mit den Grundlagen des Verhältnisses von Angebot und Nachfrage. Mit Ausnahme der Ökonomen vielleicht, die ihre Zunft mit der Zeit neu erfunden haben, wobei sie die altbewährten Prinzipien zugunsten von Eigeninteressen, die es zu verteidigen gilt, "verkauft" haben. Ihre eigennützigen Analysen, die sie in der Öffentlichkeit aussähen, sind nichts anderes als gewöhnliches Strauchwerk. Wir sind recht häufig fragwürdigen Argumenten seitens der Ökonomen ausgesetzt... . Bedarf es, im Hinblick auf eine ökonomische Fragestellung eines zweckdienlichen "Schwungs" in der Debatte, ist es erschreckend zu beobachten, wie sehr das Angebot-und-Nachfrage-Argument ignoriert wird - sei es zum Zweck einer Übersicht (unbeabsichtigt oder offensichtlich), oder einer Verzerrung (zufällig oder geplant).
Jeder, der nicht zu dem Schluss kommt, dass die Übernahme von Placer Dome durch den Wunsch motiviert gewesen ist, Säure mit zulässiger Produktion sowie Geld (Alkaloid) zu vermischen, der ist bestenfalls naiv, im schlechtesten Fall ist er blind. Ihre Short-Position beträgt zusammengenommen 21 Millionen oz Gold. Im Moment scheint der 3 Milliarden Dollar-Verlust in den Barrick-Books schon niederschmetternd zu sein, doch wahrscheinlich ist diese Summe weniger als die Hälfte dessen, was Barrick noch bezahlen muss, damit sie ihr "geniales" Hedge-Book endlich schließen können.
Don Lindsay, CEO bei Teck Cominco zeichnet ein düsteres Bild der Situation der Arbeitskräfte. Lindsay verfolgte den Mangel an Arbeitskräften bis ins Jahr 1997 zurück. Ihm zufolge wurde die Versorgungsleitung durch den Bre-X-Skandal, der asiatischen Kernschmelze, und dem Bärenmarkt für Rohstoffe gekappt. Er geht davon aus, dass die Nachfrage aus China weiterhin robust bleibt. Nicht zu vergessen, dass zwei Drittel aller Geologen aus kanadischen Schulen stammen. Wenn man davon ausgeht, dass schon in Kanada ein Geologenengpass besteht, dann haben wir in der Tat ein großes Problem. Ein Abbild des Arbeitskräftemangels im Rohölsektor findet sich zurzeit in Bereich des Bergbaus. Es gibt eine weitere Parallele. Lindsay hebt hervor, dass im Zeitraum der nächsten 10 Jahre 60% aller kanadischen Geologen ein Alter von mindestens 65 Jahren erreicht haben werden. Insgesamt heißt das nichts anderes, als dass es immer länger dauern wird, bis Minenlagerstätten gefunden werden und bis produziert werden kann. Und es wird mehr kosten.
Gehen sie noch mal ins Jahr 2001 zurück, als Gold im Tal bei 265 Dollar lag und vergleichen sie: Niemanden interessierte es einen..., als Finanzlumpen dieses unglaubliche Schnäppchen nicht sahen, als Händler schon betteln mussten, um dieses barbarische Relikt in irgendeiner Form an den Mann zu bringen. Im Preistal bot sich Gold zu Tiefstpreisen an, ohne jedoch auf Interesse zu stoßen. Bei Höchstpreisen jedoch erzeugt Gold enormes Interesse und Enthusiasmus. Das ist die falsche Richtung, ihr Grashüpfer!
Lasst uns jauchzen über die angeschmierten, selbstzerstörerischen, "überhedgten" Goldbergleute. Mögen sie sie doch gerne ihre tausend Tode sterben, wenn sie ihre Hedge-Books schließen und vor einer unerbittlichen Nachfrage stehen, die sie in ihrem Wahn selbst geschaffen haben. Nach meiner Theorie werden sie es nie schaffen, ihre Hedge-Books vollständig zu schließen. Sie werden bis in alle Ewigkeit ankaufen, ewig "auf ihren Pfaden wandeln", die über zunehmend höher liegende Preispässe führen, sie werden dem Tod immer wieder nur knapp von der Schippe springen, indem sie sich ein wenig Zeit kaufen.

Zukünftige Betrachtungen

Barrick ist ein typisches Beispiel für große, schwerfällige Produzenten. Barrick als auch Newmont haben viel höhere Durchschnittskosten für den Abbau pro oz zu verzeichnen, als noch vor einem Jahr. Barricks Ausstoß geht auch zurück, von 8,6 Millionen oz in Jahr 2006 auf 8,25 Millionen oz für dieses Jahr. Diese polternden Riesen halten aufgrund ihres Übergewichtes den HUI-Index zurück. Sie erschließen fast überhaupt nichts, sie sammeln kleine Firmen ein, nehmen deren Gold (nicht die entdeckten Abbaugebiete) und fahren letztendlich gigantische Hedge-Book-Verluste ein. Kurz: Sie geben den kleineren, schlaueren, beweglicheren und weniger belasteten Minenfirmen den falschen Eindruck, man würde in sie investieren.

Der Alptraum für Barrick ist noch nicht vorbei. In Wirklichkeit ist er erst zur Hälfte vorbei. Nach ihrem verzweifelten Griff nach Placer Dome, betrug ihr gesamtes Hegde-Book 21 Millionen oz. Im Jahre 2006 stellten sie 9,4 Millionen oz dieses desaströsen Mühlensteins glatt, der über ihren Bilanzen hängt. In Q1 stellten sie 2,0 Millionen oz glatt. Sie bestätigten Pläne, denen zu Folge weiter 0,5 Millionen oz im nächsten Vierteljahr Q2 glatt gestellt werden sollen. Damit werden sie Mitte 2007 11,9 Millionen oz von ihren insgesamt 21 Millionen oz glatt gestellt haben. Sie sind nur zur Hälfte durch mit ihrem Alptraum. Werden Ing und seinesgleichen diese von Säure zerfressene Firma (die Tonnen von Milch bräuchte, um Wasser zu machen) noch gerne haben? Mich dünkt nein, solange man keinen Kompromiss riecht.

Als Nächstes: Ausbruch von Gold zur 750 Dollarmarke

In den nächsten Wochen wird Gold die 700 Dollar-Marke durchstoßen. Es wäre schon längst so gekommen, hätte es nicht die betrügerische Absprache zwischen Barrick und den westlichen Zentralbanken gegeben. Die EZB kann nicht mit dem Tempo der derzeitigen Verkäufe Schritt halten. Sie werden keinesfalls so viel verkaufen, wie ihnen durch die korrupte Washingtoner-Übereinkunft als erlaubte Höchstgrenze zugestanden wird. Das ist bei weitem zerstörerischer, als würde man seine Wohnungseinrichtung im Winter zum Verfeuern benutzen. Es ist viel eher so, als würde man die hölzernen Stützpfeiler anbrennen, die Ständer in denen das Brennholz lagert, den Dachboden, den Gemeinschaftsraum und das gesamte Fundament des Hauses zerstören!!! Die Bauunternehmer sind die korrupten Goldbergmänner, die sich nur als Bergmänner verkleidet haben aber in Wirklichkeit Agenten des Kartells sind. Stellen sie sich vor, wie weise es ist, seine ganzen Sicherheiten für die Währung und das Bankensystem auszuverkaufen - in purer Verzweiflung, Hoffnungslosigkeit und Angst!!! Macht weiter mit eueren Hedge-Books-Glattstellungen, Jungs. Wir konnten schon seit Jahren immer auf euch zählen. Saugt das Angebot weiterhin auf und stoßt es dann wieder aus, woher es auch immer kommen mag. Denn sobald ihr Pause macht (Absicherungen glattstellen, EZB-Barrengold auf den Markt werfen), wird Gold umso höher steigen. Das ist die Bestimmung des Goldes.

© Jim Willie CB http://www.goldseiten.de/modules/news/print.php?storyid=4464

16.05.2007, 17:03
Hallo zusammen,
die 700 Dollar Marke wird also noch durchstoßen. Diesen Monat waren wir ja schon knapp dran. Rechnen wir mal damit das es in den naechsten Wochen/Monaten soweit ist.

www.worldofinvestment.com (http://www.worldofinvestment.com)

mama mia
17.05.2007, 23:20
AstroCycle research - 80% accurate http://www.astrocycle.net/Counter.gif Home (http://www.astrocycle.net/)
Summary - May 11, 2007
Precious Metals may face some short term weakness, but are likely to start climbing and make new highs and a major top in 2007. The 2006 high in Gold did not see the level of optimism in Gold stocks seen at previous 6 year cycle highs, and should do so by the next one in 2008. This is further confirmed by the COT's which never really showed extreme interest in Gold like we are seeing in Palladium. A 6 year rhythm is visible in the price of Gold in other currencies, suggesting further gains and a major high in late 2007. The short and longer term cycles of the Gold and Silver stocks also point to strength heading into late 2007.

What is holding back Precious Metals
Some of the short term cycles have not been favorable for Gold and Silver, and we can see this reflected in minor breaks of support. However the price damage has been minimal, suggesting a good move upward once this short term correction is over.

Charts courtesy of [url="http://www.stockcharts.com/"]StockCharts.com (http://www.astrocycle.net/Map.shtml)

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)

What could push Precious Metals Higher
Most of the charts with clear rhythms point to a mid to late 2007 high for Precious Metals. This is apparent in many time scales with increasing cycle lengths of 1 to 9 years in Palladium, Silver and Copper. Copper is included since its 9 year high is now overdue and the price action suggests the 2006 high was not the major high.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)

Gold in the rest of the world
Looking at the price of Gold in major currencies, we can see that they are all headed for a 6 year cycle high in early 2008, suggesting a major US Gold high in late 2007. Future gains may be limited, since any further decline in the US Dollar will keep the Price of Gold in other currencies in check.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)

Sentiment as seen through the Commitment of Traders

The Platinum and Palladium (below) COT's are the most extended suggesting a top is forming. However the COT's usually turn before the price does and often much before the major price high and we have not seen that yet. Silver (below) and Copper have more neutral COT's while Gold is in the middle. Since we are expecting a 9 year high in Copper, and we are seeing signs of extreme sentiment building in Platinum and Palladium, we could see the same develop in the more neutral Gold, Silver and Copper COT's as a major high is made for the first wave up of this Precious Metals bull market. Charts courtesy of Floyd Upperman Associates (http://www.upperman.com/)
Palladium COT
Silver COT
Charts courtesy of Floyd Upperman Associates (http://www.upperman.com/)

What about Gold and Silver stocks
The Gold and Silver stocks often precede moves in the Precious Metals, and they have been range bound and oversold below resistance for the last year. Since they are holding support and coming to the end of their respective cycle lows, they could turn up shortly.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)

Sentiment as seen through the XAU to Gold ratio
The XAU to Gold ratio is a well known sentiment indicator for mining stocks, and despite the sharp run in Gold and mining stocks it failed to reach previous levels of optimism in 2002 normally seen near 6 year cycle highs. It is likely to do so before the next cycle high in 2008 and that could mean large gains ahead in Gold and Silver stocks. The HUI to XAU ratio has already turned up from the zero line in 2007, suggesting this is the case. The similar HUI to Gold ratio is struggling with the pull of its shorter cycle while being held up by the 6 year cycle of the XAU to Gold ratio. It is only a matter of time before the uptrend resumes, and the obvious Elliott Wave count for the move tends to confirm.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)

mama mia
19.05.2007, 13:40
....also ich sitze hier am A**** der Welt - bissle mehr dürfte schon gepostet werden :o:cool

Elliott Wave Gold Update XIII

By: Alf Field

-- Posted Thursday, 17 May 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1179414240.php&title=Elliott%20Wave%20Gold%20Update%20XIII&bodytext=%20In%20Update%20XII,%20which%20was%20published%202%20months%20ago,%20it%20was%20stated:%20%C2%A0%20%E2%80%9CBoth%20gold%20and%20silver%20seem%20poised%20for%20dramatic%20upside%20price%20explosions%20if%20the%20latest%20Elliott%20Wave%20count%20set%20out%20below%20is%20correct.%20%C2%A0%20This%20interpretation%20calls%20for%20an%20immediate%20strong%203rd%20wave%20upward%20move%20in%20both%20silver%20and%20gold.%20Under%20this%20interpretation...&topic=business_finance)

In Update XII, which was published 2 months ago, it was stated:

“Both gold and silver seem poised for dramatic upside price explosions if the latest Elliott Wave count set out below is correct.

This interpretation calls for an immediate strong 3rd wave upward move in both silver and gold. Under this interpretation gold should knife through the resistance in the $680-$700 area without a problem and rise to levels in excess of previous forecasts for the peak of wave 3 of $760. A target of a minimum of $800 is now possible for the peak of wave 3.”

The following chart of the PM London gold fixings was presented in Update XII:


Data updated to 21 March 2007.

Gold did start moving up, but in a fairly gradual way. It certainly did not knife through the $680-$700 resistance area without a problem. In fact, after reaching a peak London PM fixing of $691.4 on 20 April 2007, gold turned down.

With a little more thought at the time of writing Update XII, it should have registered that the $680-$700 resistance area was an obvious place from which a minor correction could occur. The minor corrections in gold have been in the 3% to 5% range. This is the magnitude that should be anticipated as the size of the current correction in gold.

The chart below depicts the action in the PM gold fixings since the publication of Update XII. Since the peak of $691.4 on 20 April 2007, there has been a small a-wave correction (to $669.5) followed by a b-wave rally to $688.8 and the market now appears to be completing the small c-wave down to the target low point of the correction.

A 4% correction from the $691.4 peak PM gold fixing on 20 April would target a low point of $663.7. As this is written, gold is trading at $663 in the Far East cash markets on 17 May, so there is a possibility of the London Gold fixing later today being close to the target range.


Data updated to 16 May 2007.

If this interpretation is correct, then we have an extremely bullish outlook immediately ahead as the most powerful move, wave iii of wave 3 of wave THREE, should soon get underway. In a wave iii of 3 of THREE situation such as this, one can anticipate a sling-shot upward movement in excess of $100 per ounce for gold, without any significant corrections.

Markets spend 90% of the time making up their minds what to do – and then only 10% of the time actually doing what they have to do in terms of dramatic moves. It is now more than 12 months since the $725 wave ONE peak was reached in gold in May 2006. The gold market has spent this time coiling and twirling, building up strength and momentum for the rapid move to the upside. Gold has spent the 90% of the time building this launch pad. It seems ready for lift-off in the dramatic move occupying 10% of the time. This would be a perfect fit for a wave iii of 3 of THREE type wave, generally the strongest in any sequence.

An analogy could be that of a hammer thrower in athletics. The athlete twirls around in the launch cage, going faster and faster until maximum momentum is achieved. At that point the hammer is released and flies the maximum distance possible from the momentum that has been generated. Gold has spent a year twirling and building momentum. The time has come for the gold market to launch itself upwards to points well above the old $725 high point of a year ago.

What can go wrong with this ultra bullish interpretation?

We will soon know what is in store for gold market participants. The gold price needs to hold current levels in the region of the low $660’s, give or take 1%, and then launch itself upwards in a strong impulsive move. Failure to do so will call into question this bullish analysis.

What are the less attractive alternatives? One possibility stems from the fact that wave ONE of the gold bull market occupied a period of 5 years. Wave TWO, which is the corrective wave to ONE, should occupy a period of time that bears some relationship to that taken by the upward wave ONE. Thus a 5 year upward movement is not going to be corrected by a move that lasts only 3 weeks or even 3 months. It will often require as much as a third of the time taken by the upward move.

If wave TWO is to occupy a time period of a third of the time taken by wave ONE, then wave TWO might require at least 18 months before it is complete. As the duration of the current correction is only 12 months, there could possibly be another 6 months of sideways to downwards coiling and twirling still to go in the gold market before it breaks powerfully to the upside.

Experience has caused me to place much more significance on the magnitude of the corrections and much less reliance on the time element. The 12 months of churning that has already taken place in the gold bull market should be adequate to cover the necessary time element to build a base for the next advance.

If the current minor correction exceeds the bounds of the 1% limit from the $660 level, then it will be necessary to revise the wave count. It may not necessarily be as bad as another 6 months of churning. There may be other explanations that can be explored later if necessary.

With a modicum of luck, gold participants may shortly be enjoying a very powerful $100 plus rise in a relatively short period of time.

Alf Field

17 May 2007. - http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1179414240.php

mama mia
19.05.2007, 13:45
http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/MPAnne.jpg The Bubbling Metals

By: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden, The Aden Forecast

-- Posted Friday, 18 May 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1179500520.php&title=The%20Bubbling%20Metals&bodytext=%20Courtesy%20of%20www.adenforecast.com%20%20%C2%A0%20%20The%20metals%20have%20been%20on%20a%20tear.%20The%20base%20metals%20have%20been%20rising%20sharply%20with%20several%20hitting%20new%20highs.%20Whether%20it%E2%80%99s%20nickel,%20lead,%20copper,%20zinc%20or%20aluminum,%20they%E2%80%99ve%20all%20risen%20sharply%20while%20platinum%20soared%20to%20record%20highs.%20And%20it%E2%80%99s%20not%20just%20the%20metals,%20the%20entire%20gold%20universe%20has%20been%20hot....&topic=business_finance)

Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com/)

The metals have been on a tear. The base metals have been rising sharply with several hitting new highs. Whether it’s nickel, lead, copper, zinc or aluminum, they’ve all risen sharply while platinum soared to record highs. And it’s not just the metals, the entire gold universe has been hot. Uranium continues to defy gravity as it jumped well above $100, while crude oil sits above the $60 level.

The stock market has been hot too. It’s been getting most of the publicity as it keeps hitting record highs. And while the stock market is indeed bullish, over the past eight years the Dow Industrials is still down 58% compared to gold. So the percentage gains have simply been better in gold and the other metals.

It’s the same story this year too. The gains in the metals and natural resources have been greater than the gains in the stock market, despite its renewed strength.

As of last week, for instance, uranium had soared 67%. Copper gained 41%, natural gas was up 26%, platinum 19%, gold 10% and silver 7%. In comparison, the Dow Industrials and S&P500 gained 6½%, the Transports were up 11% and the top performing Dow Utilities was up 16%.


These superior gains reflect the ongoing, extraordinary growth in China. China is not slowing down. The economy grew at an 11.1% pace in the first quarter, its trade surplus about doubled and its foreign exchange reserves surged to a record $1.2 trillion.

China is the biggest consumer of copper, nickel, lead, zinc, tin and aluminum. Copper imports alone were up 123% in the first quarter compared to a year ago. And as long as China’s growth stays on track, we’ll continue to see ongoing rises in commodity prices in the years ahead.

Growing robust demand, together with limited supply is the fundamental reason why commodities will keep rising. The mining industry cannot deliver the supply needed for all this new demand, which means that the mega upmove within the 200 year commodity cycle is in full force.


This growth has also fueled the emerging stock market surge and countries that produce raw materials and energy are booming. In this vein, the world and the markets are different this time around compared to the 1970s. Today it’s much more powerful because it’s a global bull market led by demand. In the 1970s, inflation pushed gold, silver and oil up to records. But a demand based rise is always the most powerful.

Let’s now take a look at how bullish some of these markets are…


Silver has been in a deficit for 15 years now, which is probably why it has been outperforming gold since its rise started in 2003. It’s been a good investment and silver’s big picture, like gold’s, is promising. Chart 1 shows silver’s mega uptrending channel since the 1960s. Last year silver reached its first target, the 1983 high, and it’s been resisting since then. Once silver overcomes this level at $14.80, silver will have broken out and its next target is at the $22 level.


For now, silver’s rise is solid above its rising 65-week moving average at $12.30 (see Chart 2A). Interestingly, the leading indicator (B) is still poised to rise and it looks similar to the movements prior to the surging rise leading up to the May 06 peak.


Silver has been lagging gold since March. The ratio (C) shows that silver could continue to underperform gold in the coming months but it would still be stronger than gold on a major trend basis.

Chart 3 shows platinum’s surge. It’s up 19% this year alone and it appears to be leading the way for the other precious metals. Palladium is poised to follow as it’s rising in a solid mega uptrend too, recently reaching a one year high.



Whether it be record highs in nickel and lead, or big gains in copper and zinc, the base metals are super strong.

Nickel, for instance, is up 53% in 2007 and considering that 75% of the world’s nickel is used in stainless steel, a squeeze could keep prices high. In fact, low stockpiles and supply disruptions are ongoing bullish factors for the base metals (see Chart 4).


Chart 5A shows copper’s incredible strength. It quickly rebounded from its February lows and it’s again approaching its record high posted a year ago at $4.00. Copper prices near $4.00 could put a damper on growth. This means copper could resist once it gets there, especially because the leading indicator (B) is near overbought. But copper is strong above $3.10 and the bull market is solid.


The bottom line is that these markets are among the world’s strongest and they’re providing an extraordinary opportunity. The fundamentals are solid and so are the technicals. Strong bull markets are in force, not only for gold but for all the metals.

Sure there will be corrections along the way like we’re seeing today… that’s normal. But stay with these markets for the long-term because they really have everything going for them and there are great profits to be made.

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com)

-- Posted Friday, 18 May 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1179500520.php&title=The%20Bubbling%20Metals&bodytext=%20Courtesy%20of%20www.adenforecast.com%20%20%C2%A0%20%20The%20metals%20have%20been%20on%20a%20tear.%20The%20base%20metals%20have%20been%20rising%20sharply%20with%20several%20hitting%20new%20highs.%20Whether%20it%E2%80%99s%20nickel,%20lead,%20copper,%20zinc%20or%20aluminum,%20they%E2%80%99ve%20all%20risen%20sharply%20while%20platinum%20soared%20to%20record%20highs.%20And%20it%E2%80%99s%20not%20just%20the%20metals,%20the%20entire%20gold%20universe%20has%20been%20hot....&topic=business_finance)

mama mia
19.05.2007, 13:58
Gold Breaks Major Support Levels, So That's It for Gold? / Commodities (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html) / Gold & Silver (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Category6-All.html)

May 18, 2007 - 07:29 PM By: Adrian_Ash

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/topics/commodities.gif (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html)

"...Golly – what a great market to short! And isn't it funny to think that gold just recorded fresh all-time highs against the world's major currencies..."

SO THAT'S IT in gold then. The bull market that peaked in May 2006 finally gave up the ghost this week.

At least, that's what Wall Street is saying. No wonder private investors are selling out, too.

"We broke through major support levels [on Thurs], and there was also follow-through liquidation from the ETFs," said one dealer to Reuters early on Friday. StreetTracks GLD, the world's largest exchange-traded gold fund, had already sold 8 tonnes of bullion on Wednesday as investors quit the trust.

In the last month alone redemptions have now forced the sale of 6% of GLD's gold. But "the funds' selling is not done yet," reckons Wallace Ng, chief trader at Fortis Bank in Hong Kong . "Gold might continue to weaken."

Ng puts a floor under this move at $652 per ounce. Standard Bank is more bearish still. After failing "to regain the key $665 technical level – and now trading below the 100-day moving average – gold is in serious danger of slipping lower," it says.

"The next key support to look to lies at the $650 level," Friday's technical note warned, "with a break lower suggesting another move lower toward the 200-day moving average currently around $635."

Golly, what a great market to short! And isn't it funny to think – gold just recorded its highest-ever monthly average in Dollars...four bucks above the top of last spring at an all-time high of $679 per ounce...


Versus the Pound Sterling, beloved of central-bank managers everywhere, gold hasn't been stronger since its own all-time record of May 2006...


In fact, if you look at gold priced on a 90-day time-frame – short enough for hedge fund traders to bear, but long enough for the mass of private investors to spot making a trend – you can see gold hitting new highs almost right across the board...


The only exception is the Euro price of bullion. But even for Frankfurt gold traders, the metal finished last month with its best 90-day period in 26 years.

The South African Rand has never been weaker against gold across rolling 3-months. Nor has the Canadian Dollar or Indian Rupee. And if you were wondering whether the Japanese Yen can go any lower from here, the answer is yes – measured against gold, at least...


Gold priced in Yen hasn't traded this high in 22 years. But the Japanese currency would have to halve in value again to hit an all-time record low versus the metal.

Could that happen? Be warned – if you ignore the sound and fury for too long, you might see gold going higher against all government money today.

You might see its six-year bull market rolling on in the long-term. You might even see this week's 5% setback in gold as a great chance to buy cheap!

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com (http://www.bullionvault.com/from/freebonus)

Gold price chart, no delay (http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do)| Gold prices live (http://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do)| Latest gold market news (http://www.goldnews.bullionvault.com/)
City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News (http://www.goldnews.bullionvault.com/) and head of research at www.BullionVault.com (http://www.bullionvault.com/from/freebonus), giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2007 - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1030.html

mama mia
21.05.2007, 12:25
:verbeug an Eldo :)


Silver open interest fell 593 contracts to 108,698.

Last week one ECB central bank sold 22 million euros of gold or 1.37 tons.

On Wednesday, our sources tell us there was no less than six central bank sellers and leasers in the market along with the naked shorts. The Bank of Japan and the US Treasury pounded the yen. We saw a close at 120.76, -.68 after it ventured down to 121. The Fed and Treasury want the world safe for the yen carry trade, so they will put all those leveraged funds into the US stock market and drive it higher. That is so people will forget the carnage and failure in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is called misdirection or psywar. The euro fell .0073 to $1.3515, the pound fell .0091 to $1.9764; the Canadian dollar fell .38 to 90.63 and the dollar index closed back up above 82. They bombed the precious metal stocks as well. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.73% and the 10’s were 4.71%. Oil was off $0.64 to $62.53, gas up $0.03 to $2.33 and natural gas was up $0.06 to $7.92. The Dow was up 104 to 13,488 on terrible housing starts and future permits’ news. S&P rose 117 and Nasdaq 233 Dow points.

Gold fell $12.60 to $660.10 and silver fell $0.36 to $12.83. Gold open interest rose 1,702 contracts to 408,936. On Tuesday, the big Tocom shorts increased their shorts by 1,671 contracts to 98,474. Goldman http://www.goldseitenforum.de/images/smilies/mad.gif increased its shorts by 280 to 20,535 contracts. The same group reduced silver shorts by 284 contracts to 5,921. The XAU fell 1.35 to 136.15 and the HUI fell 3.95 to 325.44.

Friday finally was a solid day for gold, silver and commodities. Gold ended the day up $4.50 at $660.60 and silver rose $0.13 to $12.89. In the June gold contract gold was up $4.80 to $662.00, silver rose $0.12 to $13.00 and copper overcame early losses to tack on $0.02 to $3.32. There is no question gold does not want to go lower and the only reason gold faltered was that the central banks did lots of selling.

You use these corrections to make new buys. Gold open interest fell 2,803 contracts to 402,600. Silver open interest dropped 58 to 110,298 contracts. The move by China to raise interest rates and increase reserves means a strong yuan; higher export prices and higher US inflation. This is excellent for gold, silver and commodities. The large Tocom shorts on Thursday increased their shorts again by 6,645 to total 107,558. The same group increased their net silver short by 137 contracts to net 6,172. Goldman increased 1,608 gold contracts to total 22,995. It’s of interest that Harmony Gold spent A$75.8 million buying back forward gold contracts. This is Africa’s third largest producer. In US funds that is $62.4 million. The contract covered 230,000 ounces of gold to be sold at $425.69 an ounce. What a group of geniuses.

The Illuminati http://www.goldseitenforum.de/images/smilies/mad.gif not only wants to suppress the gold price, but they want to erase gold from the human mind.
They truly want to label in the public’s mind that gold is a barbaric relic. They want gold eliminated in total. They want a world currency without competition.

On Thursday, 8.6 tons of gold was sold by GLD or 16.6 tons in two days or 31.6 tons over the month. This is shorting with no up tick at its finest. This is the enemy doing this. Do not buy into the gold and silver ETF’s, you are just cutting your own throat. http://www.goldseitenforum.de/images/smilies/cool.gif

SATURDAY, MAY 19, 2007
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER Eldorado hat dieses Bild (verkleinerte Version) angehängt:
http://www.goldseitenforum.de/attachment.php?attachmentid=14533&thumbnail=1 (http://www.goldseitenforum.de/attachment.php?attachmentid=14533)

One Life *** Live it !

mama mia
21.05.2007, 14:53
:schwitz anders bekomme ich diesen Artikel leider nicht rein - ich meine er ist gut und ziemlich objektiv :) hoffe ich zumindest :o;):D

Zentralbanken manipulieren Goldpreis
von Hubert Roos

Viele Gründe können aufgezeigt
werden, weshalb Gold in den letzten
Jahren so stark an Wert gewonnen
hat und sich auch in Zukunft
sehr positiv entwickeln wird. Dazu
zählen steigende Rohstoffpreise im
Allgemeinen, die Sorge vor steigender
Inflation bis hin zu Ängsten
von Hyperinflation, geopolitische
Risiken oder die Angst vor einem
Dollar-Crash. Während alle diese
Punkte sicherlich zutreffend sind
und jeder von ihnen eine Rolle in
der Kursentwicklung der letzten
Jahre gespielt hat, wurde bisher
jedoch der wichtigste Kernpunkt in
der öffentlichen Diskussion ausgespart:
die Zentralbanken Europas
und der USA als größte Player im
Goldmarkt haben inzwischen fast
die Hälfte ihrer Goldreserven veräußert
und die breite Öffentlichkeit
weiß noch nichts davon.
Nach offiziellen Angaben des Internationalen
Währungsfonds (IWF)
lagern in den Tresoren der Zentralbanken
rund 31.000 Tonnen
Gold, aber in Wirklichkeit sind es
deutlich weniger. Die größten Positionen
haben nach IWF-Angaben
die USA mit über 8.000 Tonnen,
was rund 68 Prozent ihrer Währungsreserven
entspricht. Deutschland
steht mit gut 3.400 Tonnen an
zweiter Stelle und deckt damit
über 50 Prozent seiner Währungsreserven
ab. Dann folgen der Internationale
Währungsfonds (IWF)
mit 3.200 Tonnen, Frankreich mit
2.800 Tonnen und Italien mit 2.400
Tonnen decken fast 60 Prozent
ihrer Währungsreserven ab.
Die Problematik der heutigen Situation
im Goldmarkt liegt in den
1980er Jahren begründet. Damals
begannen die Zentralbanken, Teile
ihrer Goldbestände an große Banken
und Investmentbanken, die im
Goldgeschäft tätig waren - sogenannte
Bullion-Banken - zu verleihen.
Dazu zählten beispielsweise
Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank,
UBS, HSBC-Bank, JPMorgan
Chase, Goldman Sachs oder die
Citibank. Der Sinn und Zweck dieses
Tuns lag darin, dass die
Zentralbanken mit ihrem Gold
Geld verdienen wollten, weil sie
für das Verleihen eine Gebühr verlangen
konnten. Damals lagen die
Zinsen für die Goldleihe bei 1 bis 2
Prozent, heute sind sie deutlich
niedriger. Diese nicht gerade hohen
Zinsen schienen immerhin lukrativ
genug für den Verleih einer Ware,
die irgendwo in Tresoren herum
lag und anstatt etwas einzubringen,
nur Kosten für Lagerung und
Bewachung verursachte.
Was aber macht nun eine Bullion-
Bank mit dem geliehenen Gold?
Lagert sie es ein und hat jetzt ihrerseits
nicht nur die Kosten für Lagerung
und Versicherung, sondern
auch noch die Zinszahlungen an
die Notenbank zu tragen? Das
wäre ein schlechtes Geschäft. Die
Gold-Banken sind ebenso wie alle
anderen Banken Vermittler. Sie verdienen
daran, dass sie Finanzgeschäfte
vermitteln. Also nehmen
sie das Gold und verkaufen es weiter,
z. B an die Schmuckindustrie
oder an Investoren und kassieren
dafür den entsprechenden aktuellen
Goldpreis zuzüglich Provisionen
und Spesen. Das eingenommene
Geld investierten sie dann in
Anleihen und Schatzbriefe. Das
ganze rechnete sich ungefähr folgendermaßen:
Die Bullion-Bank zahlte ein Prozent
Zins an die Notenbank während
des Ausleihezeitraumes und
legte damals das für den Verkauf
des geliehenen Goldes eingenommene
Geld mit ca. 5 bis 6 Prozent in
festverzinslichen Anleihen an –
macht nach Abzug der Transaktionskosten
einen Gewinn von 3 bis
4 Prozent. Dieses Geschäftsmodell
nennt man Gold-Carry-Trade.
(Anm. 1) Ein schönes Geschäft, das
allerdings einen Haken hat.
Ab dem Zeitpunkt, an dem die
Bullion-Bank das geliehene Gold
verkauft, steht sie im Risiko. Sie
muss zum vorher bestimmten Zeitpunkt
die gleiche Menge Gold, die
sie verkauft hat und jetzt nicht
mehr besitzt, an die Notenbank zurückgeben.
Wenn sich bei der fälligen
Rückgabe der Goldpreis auf
dem gleichen Niveau befindet wie
zu dem Zeitpunkt, als das Gold
verkauft wurde, läuft alles problemlos.
Die Bullion-Bank kauft
am Markt die entsprechende Menge
quasi kostenneutral zurück und
das Geschäft mit der Notenbank
wird glattgestellt. Noch besser
stellt sich die Lage dar, wenn in der
Zwischenzeit der Goldpreis gesunken
ist. Dann kann das Gold günstiger
eingekauft werden als man
es verkauft hat und neben dem
Zinsdifferenzgeschäft realisiert die
Bullion-Bank zusätzliche Kursgewinne.
Das ist die hohe Kunst des
Geldverdienens, die allerdings
nicht mehr funktioniert, wenn der
Goldpreis steigt.
In diesem Fall müsste die Bank für
den Rückkauf des gelben Metalls
mehr Geld ausgeben, als sie durch
den Verkauf eingenommen hat.
Dadurch wäre möglicherweise der
Gewinn aus dem Zinsdifferenzgeschäft
sehr schnell weg geschmolzen
und es könnte im
Endeffekt sogar zu einem Verlustgeschäft
werden – nicht nur für die
Bullion-Bank, sondern auch für die
Notenbank. Wenn nämlich durch
derartige Geschäftspraktiken eine
Bullion-Bank zu große Verluste
erleidet und in ihrer Existenz
gefährdet würde, hätte sehr wahrscheinlich
auch die Notenbank das
Nachsehen, da diese keine Aussicht
darauf hätte, von einer Pleite
gegangenen Bank Zinsen zu erhalten,
geschweige denn ihr Gold
zurück zu bekommen. Aus diesem
Grund haben die Notenbanken ein
sehr großes Interesse, dass ihre
Geschäftspartner – die Gold-Banken
– nicht durch zu hohe Goldpreise
unter Druck geraten.
Es gibt aber noch einen weiteren
Punkt, weshalb die Notenbanken
einen hohen Goldpreis nicht beson-
Zentralbanken manipulieren Goldpreis
von Hubert Roos
www.rohstoff-spiegel.de (http://www.rohstoff-spiegel.de) - 19 - 2. Jahrgang | Ausgabe 10/2007
ders schätzen und weshalb sie
gerne Gold verliehen - insbesondere
seit der Mitte der 90er Jahre:
Durch die Gold-Verleihung kam
immer wieder Gold aus den Tresoren
auf den Markt und sorgte
nicht nur dafür, dass jede Nachfrage
befriedigt werden konnte,
sondern dass man damit sogar den
Goldpreis drücken konnte. Für die
Drückung des Goldpreises gab es
verschiedene Motive. Zunächst
half ein niedriger Goldpreis, die
Finanzmärkte bei tatsächlichen
oder zu befürchtenden Krisensituationen
zu beruhigen - z.B. die
Asienkrise und die Russlandkrise
Mitte der 90er, der Zusammenbruch
der LTCM-Gesellschaft
(Long Term Capital Management)
1998 und die Terroranschläge vom
11. September 2001. Außerdem ist
ein niedriger Goldpreis positiv für
die Außenwirkung der US-Finanzpolitik,
indem er signalisiert,
dass alles in Ordnung und die Inflation
unter Kontrolle ist. Schließlich
muss der Goldpreis unten bleiben,
damit die Spieler beim Gold-
Carry-Trade nicht verlieren.
Die Praxis des Goldverleihens
durch die Zentralbanken führt
allerdings zu starken Verzerrungen
der Angebots- und Nachfragestruktur.
Das von Zentralbanken
verliehene Gold, das in den Markt
hinein verkauft wird, hat den
Effekt, dass kurzfristig das
Angebot erhöht und damit der
Goldpreis niedrig gehalten wird.
Auf lange Sicht wiederum wird
das Angebot reduziert, weil das
Gold wieder vom Markt genommen
werden muss, wenn die
Verleihfrist abgelaufen ist. Wenn
zusätzlich die Nachfrage nach
Gold weiter steigt, z.B. für Investmentzwecke
und außerdem die
Minenproduktion rückläufig ist,
wird eine sehr angespannte Situation
auf dem Goldmarkt entstehen,
die zu sehr unerwarteten Preisbewegungen
nach oben führen
kann. Wie stark solche Bewegungen
sein können, hängt davon ab,
wie groß die Menge des ausstehenden
Goldes ist. Und genau diese
Frage ist nicht leicht zu beantworten.
Eine genaue Klärung dessen, was
die Zentralbanken im Goldmarkt
anstellen, wird erschwert durch
zum Teil undurchsichtige Methoden
der Bilanzierung ihrer Reserven.
Nach den Richtlinien des
Internationalen Währungsfonds
(IWF) zur Bilanzierung der Goldreserven
trifft kaum eine der
Zentralbanken eine Unterscheidung
zwischen dem Gold, das tatsächlich
physisch in den Tresoren
liegt und dem Gold, das ausgeliehen
ist. In ihren Jahresberichten
behandeln die meisten Zentralbanken
ihre Goldpositionen zusammengefasst
in einer einzigen
Position als „Gold und Goldforderungen“;
damit werden Forderungen
gegenüber Bullionbanken
genau so behandelt wie Gold, das
greifbar in physischer Form vorliegt.
Erstmals aufgedeckt wurde
diese zweifelhafte Methodik von
der 1999 in den USA gegründeten
gemeinnützigen Organisation
GATA, die sich zum Ziel gesetzt
hat, die Machenschaften der Goldpreisunterdrückung
offen zu legen.
Im Jahr 2000 präsentierte GATA
einen Untersuchungsbericht, der
diese Tricks erstmals aufzeigte und
den Vorwurf erhob, dass die
Finanzmarktakteure von den Zentralbanken
systematisch getäuscht
wurden. Nicht nur nach USGesetzen
ist es illegal, freie Märkte
wie Gold zu manipulieren und
deshalb wurden hohe Beamte des
US-Finanzministeriums sowie der
Vorsitzende der US-Zentralbank
Federal Reserve (Fed), Alan Greenspan,
zu diesem Tatbestand vernommen.
Klar war natürlich, dass
alle Befragten jegliche Art von
„Verfehlungen“ abstritten. Unterstützung
bekam GATA von sehr
hoher Stelle aus Russland. Anlässlich
einer Rede des stellvertretenden
Vorsitzenden der Russischen
Zentralbank, Oleg Mozhaiskov, im
Juni 2004 vor der LBMA (London
Bullion Market Association), dem
Verband, zu dem die oben erwähnten
führenden Bullion- Banken
gehören, sagte dieser: „Viele Menschen
kennen mittlerweile die
Gruppe von Wirtschaftsfachleuten,
die sich in der GATA-Organisation
zusammengefunden haben. … Sie
glauben, dass einige hohe Beamte
mit Unterstützung einer Zahl größerer
Finanzinstitute den Goldmarkt
seit 1994 manipulieren. In
der Folge fiel der Goldpreis unter
300 USD pro Unze zu einem
Zeitpunkt, wo der Preis im Hinblick
auf die Inflation bei 740 bis
760 Dollar hätte stehen müssen. Ich
möchte dazu persönlich keine
Stellung nehmen, aber ich möchte
annehmen, … dass die wahren
Kräfte, welche im Goldmarkt aktiv
sind, nichts mit denen zu tun
haben, die man in Lehrbüchern
über die Preisfindung in freien
Märkten findet“(Anm. 2). Das russische
Interesse an der Arbeit von
GATA wurde dadurch bekräftigt,
dass der persönliche Wirtschaftsberater
von Wladimir Putin, der
Präsident der Akademie für
Strategische Partnerschaften und
Energiesicherheit, Andrey Bykov,
an der GATA-Konferenz mit dem
Titel „Gold-Rausch 21“ vom 8. bis
9. August 2005 in Yukon, Kanada,
Einer der Auslöser für GATAs
Theorie über die Goldpreismanipulation
war die Rettungsaktion
bei der LTCM-Krise. Der sagenumwobene
Hedge Fund LTCM hatte
ein Aktienkapital von 3 Milliarden
Dollar auf 140 Milliarden Dollar
Schulden und 1,25 Billionen Dollar
in Derivaten gehebelt. Im Zuge der
www.rohstoff-spiegel.de (http://www.rohstoff-spiegel.de) - 20 - 2. Jahrgang | Ausgabe 10/2007
Libertäre Zeitschrift: www.ef-magazin.de (http://www.ef-magazin.de)
Liberaler Literaturladen: www.capitalista.de (http://www.capitalista.de)
eigentümlich frei I N D I V I D U A L I S T I S C H K A P I T A L I S T I S C H L I B E R T Ä R
Cap tal sta ! !
Argumente von Baader, Blankertz, Bouillon, Doering, Haber-
Hoppe, Weede und vielen mehr jeden Monat in: mann,
Bücher von Erhard, Friedman, Hayek, Mises,
Popper, Rand, Rothbard und vielen anderen mehr!
Asien- und Russlandkrisen 1997
und 1998 flog das LTCM-System in
die Luft. Es gab starke Gerüchte,
wonach der Fonds 300 Tonnen
Gold leer verkauft hatte, was einem
damaligen Marktwert von 2,9
Milliarden US-Dollar entsprach.
Nur mit Hilfe einer von der amerikanischen
Notenbank organisierten
Rettungsaktion durch ein
Konsortium von 14 Großbanken
konnte damals eine finanzielle
Kernschmelze im globalen Finanzmarkt
verhindert werden. Das
Hauptverdachtsmoment und
gleichzeitig der stichhaltigste Fall
für GATA im Zusammenhang mit
der Goldpreismanipulation war
die Ankündigung der Bank von
England über den Verkauf von 415
Tonnen Gold im Mai 1999. Nach
GATAs Ansicht war dies eine eindeutig
politisch motivierte Entscheidung,
um den Goldpreis zu
jener Zeit unter 300 US-Dollar pro
Unze zu halten. Die öffentliche
Ankündigung des Verkaufs war
geradezu eine Garantie dafür, den
niedrigsten möglichen Verkaufspreis
zu erzielen, denn allen potenziellen
Käufern wurde damit bekannt
gegeben, dass nun für eine
bestimmte Zeit ein Überangebot im
Markt herrschte, welches sich negativ
auf die Preisgestaltung auswirkte.
Und es funktionierte tatsächlich.
Der Goldpreis kollabierte
auf 252 Dollar und die erste
Tranche des Verkaufs von 25
Tonnen wurde mit 262 Dollar abgewickelt
– 26 Dollar, das sind fast 10
Prozent unter dem Kurs, der
unmittelbar vor der Ankündigung
gestellt war. Bezeichnenderweise
geschah diese Aktion unmittelbar,
nachdem eine von der englischen
Regierung unterstützte Kampagne
der USA unter dem damaligen USFinanzminister
Robert Rubin gescheitert
war, welche den Internationalen
Währungsfonds (IWF)
dazu bewegen sollte, Gold aus dessen
Beständen zu verkaufen, um
einen Schuldenerlass für Entwicklungsländer
zu finanzieren.
Der britische Premierminister Tony
Blair kommentierte den Verkauf
damals vor dem Unterhaus mit den
Worten: „Wir haben die Aktion
sehr sorgfältig geplant und behutwww.
rohstoff-spiegel.de - 21 - 2. Jahrgang | Ausgabe 10/2007
sam ausgeführt und wir konnten
das Bestmögliche für unser Land
herausholen.“ Aus Sicht der englischen
Bürger und Steuerzahler
dürfte das allerdings ein Fiasko
gewesen sein, denn der durch die
öffentliche Ankündigung verursachte
Kursverlust dürfte sich auf
gut 2 Milliarden Dollar belaufen
haben. Auch schon in früheren
Zeiten hatte es Beispiele gegeben,
wo England den USA zu Hilfe
gekommen war, wenn es darum
ging, das Bankensystem zu stützen.
Beispielsweise versuchte England
vergeblich, den USA zu helfen,
das marode Bretton-Woods-
System Ende der 1960er und
Anfangs der 70er Jahre am Leben
zu erhalten. Zwischen 1958 und
1965 schwankte das Volumen der
britischen Goldreserven zwischen
2.000 und 2.500 Tonnen. Zwischen
1966 und 1972 verschleuderte das
britische Finanzministerium 1.356
Tonnen in einem fruchtlosen Versuch,
den Wert des US-Dollars
gegenüber Gold aufrecht zu erhalten.
Damals schon wurden die Kosten
hierfür der britischen Öffentlichkeit
Im Laufe der Zeit kamen weitere
Indizien und Aussagen hinzu, welche
die GATA-Theorie plausibel
erscheinen lassen. Nach offiziellen
Angaben haben die Federal Reserve
und das US-Finanzministerium
ihre Hände nicht im Spiel,
wenn es um Gold geht. Nach
öffentlichen Aussagen hingegen
kann man das Gegenteil annehmen.
Alan Greenspan selbst bestätigte
in einer Rede vor hohen
Finanzbeamten im Juli 1998 Interventionen
zugunsten eines starken
Dollars und eines gezügelten Goldpreises:
„Die Zentralbanken stehen
bereit, Gold in zunehmenden
Mengen zu verkaufen, falls der
Preis zu stark steigen sollte“. Später
erläuterte er diese Aussage in
einem öffentlich gewordenen Brief
an Senator Joseph Lieberman:
„Diese Beobachtung beschreibt
lediglich die begrenzten Möglichkeiten
privater Stellen, den
Goldmarkt über eine Drosselung
der Nachfrage zu beeinflussen,
wenn man die zu beobachtende
Bereitschaft einiger ausländischer
Zentralbanken – nicht der Federal
Reserve – in Betracht zieht, Gold
als Reaktion auf Preissteigerungen
zu verleihen.“
Dies scheint ein klarer Beweis aus
dem Munde des Fed-Vorsitzenden
zu sein, dass Zentralbanken im
Goldmarkt intervenieren, auch
wenn Greenspan in dieser Aussage
eine Beteiligung der amerikanischen
Zentralbank verneint.
Weitere Unterstützung für die
des Goldpreises durch die
Zentralbanken leitet GATA im Zusammenhang
mit dem ersten
Washingtoner Goldabkommen ab.
Am 26. September 1999 wurde dieses
Abkommen von der Europäischen
Zentralbank (EZB) und 14
europäischen Zentralbanken, einschließlich
der Bank of England,
unterzeichnet. Inhalt des Abkommens
war es, ihre Goldverkäufe
und Verleihaktivitäten für die folgenden
fünf Jahre zu limitieren auf
400 Tonnen pro Jahr - insgesamt
also 2000 Tonnen über diesen
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Preis in USD / Unze
Datenquelle: Markt-Daten.de
Goldpreis seit der Jahrtausendewende
Quelle: Flickr
Zeitraum. Eingeschlossen in diese
Regelung waren die noch verbliebenen
365 Tonnen der Bank of
England, die aus dem anfangs des
Jahres angekündigten Gesamtvolumen
von 415 Tonnen noch nicht
verkauft waren. Ziel dieses Abkommens
war es, den Goldpreis im
Vorfeld der Euro-Einführung zu
stabilisieren. Als Folge des Abkommens
schoss der Goldpreis,
nachdem diese Angebotsverknappung
publiziert war, von 270 USDollar
auf 325 Dollar pro Unze
hoch. Dies war nun sicherlich ein
nicht beabsichtigter Effekt. Zwar
wollten die beteiligten Länder
einen stabilen Goldpreis, aber sie
wollten keinen hohen Goldpreis,
denn damit hätten sie sich möglicherweise
sehr große Unannehmlichkeiten
eingehandelt. Was sie
auf keinen Fall wollten, war ein
Zusammenbrechen der Gold-
Carry-Trades und des Verleihgeschäftes
durch plötzlich gestiegene
Kurse. Dies geschah auch
nicht, denn in der Folgezeit fiel der
Goldkurs durch untereinander
abgestimmte Aktionen der Zentralbanken
wieder auf das Ausgangsniveau
Daraufhin verklagte der amerikanische
Anwalt Reginald Howe im
Jahr 2001 den damaligen amerikanischen
Alan Greenspan, die Bank für
Internationalen Zahlungsverkehr
(BIZ) sowie fünf renommierte Geschäftsbanken,
darunter JPMorgan
Chase, wegen unerlaubter Preisabsprachen
im internationalen
www.rohstoff-spiegel.de (http://www.rohstoff-spiegel.de) - 22 - 2. Jahrgang | Ausgabe 10/2007
Goldhandel zur Drückung des
Goldpreises (Anm. 3). Während
des Prozesses sagte der damalige
Gouverneur der Bank of England,
Sir Edward George, Folgendes aus:
„Wir standen da und schauten in
den Abgrund, falls der Goldpreis
weiter gestiegen wäre. Ein weiterer
Anstieg hätte einige Handelshäuser
in den Abgrund gerissen und
dies hätte möglicherweise alle
anderen mitgerissen. Daher mussten
die Zentralbanken den Goldpreis
drücken - koste es, was es
wolle. Es war sehr schwierig, den
Goldpreis unter Kontrolle zu bekommen,
aber schließlich waren
wir erfolgreich. Die US-Notenbank
war sehr aktiv, ebenso wie Großbritannien.“
(Anm. 4)
Für GATA sind dies eindeutige
Manipulationsbelege. Die nächste
Frage ist dann, welche Dimensionen
diese Manipulationen einnehmen.
Dies ist aufgrund der wenig
transparenten Bilanzierungsmethoden
der Zentralbanken für Gold
nicht ganz einfach und eindeutig
zu beantworten. Die Analysten von
Cheuvreux haben die Recherchen
verschiedener Experten, die sich
intensiv mit der Manipulationsthematik
auseinander gesetzt haben
- wie Frank Veneroso, James
Turk, Reginald Howe - sowie das
Datenmaterial der Bank für Internationalen
Zahlungsverkehr (BIZ)
ausgewertet und kommen zu dem
Schluss, dass es sich um eine
Größenordnung von mindestens
10.000 bis möglicherweise 15.000
Tonnen Gold handelt, das in den
Büchern der Zentralbanken steht,
aber nicht mehr in ihren Tresoren
liegt. (Anm. 5) Das ist ein gutes
Drittel bis fast die Hälfte der gesamten
Zentralbankbestände weltweit.
Wenn diese Nachricht ihren Weg in
die breite Öffentlichkeit findet und
die Runde in Anlegerkreisen
macht, dürfte die Goldpreismanipulation
durch die Zentralbanken
in der jetzt bestehenden Form ein
baldiges Ende finden. Damit wäre
auch das verbliebene Gold nicht
nur ein Drittel oder die Hälfte
mehr wert, als bei der augenblicklich
angenommenen Menge. Bereits
eine Verknappung von 10
Prozent könnte ausreichen, den
Preis eines Rohstoffes oder einer
Ware zu verdoppeln. Ein Minderbestand
von einem Drittel bis gar
der Hälfte des Volumens kann
ungeahnte Preisbewegungen auslösen.
Bei dem momentanen weltweiten
Liquiditätsüberschuss könnten
in kürzester Zeit immense Geldbeträge
bewegt werden, um das verbleibende
wenige Gold aufzusaugen.
1. Hubert Roos, Gold-Boom, Kulmbach
2003, S. 67 - 71
2. Cheuvreux-Report (Sector Report
„Metals & Mining“ von Paul Mylchreest,
Credit Agricole Cheuvreux International,
Januar 2006) Seite 16
3. Ferdinand Lips, Die Gold Verschwörung,
Rottenburg a. N., 2003
4. Cheuvreux-Report S. 20
5. Cheuvreux-Report S. 22
Über den Autor:
Hubert Roos, Jahrgang 1955, war viele
Jahre als Berater und Führungskraft in
einem renommierten Finanzdienstleistungsunternehmen
tätig. Im Jahr 2000
machte er sich selbstständig als unabhängiger
Anlageexperte und spezialisierte
sich auf den Edelmetall- und
Rohstoffbereich. Im Jahr 2003 erschien
sein Buch „Gold-Boom“, eines der modernen
Standardwerke für Goldinvestoren.
Anfang 2004 veröffentlichte
er „Big-Silver“, damals das erste Buch
im deutschsprachigen Raum, in dem
Silber primär als Anlageinstrument
behandelt wurde.

www.rohstoff-spiegel.de - 2. Jahrgang | Ausgabe 10/2007

21.05.2007, 23:05
Hoffen wir, dass das Schule macht, damit die armen Rentner nicht ganz leer ausgehen.
EXCLUSIVE-Novartis Pension Funds to invest 4 pct in metals

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - Switzerland-based Novartis's (NOVN.VX: Quote (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=NOVN.VX), Profile (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=NOVN.VX), Research (http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=NOVN.VX) pension fund plans to invest four percent of its 14 billion Swiss francs ($11.37 billion) in precious metals, the manager of the pension fund told Reuters on Monday.

"What we want to do is to invest one percent, that is 140 million Swiss francs ($114.1 million), in gold, one percent in platinum, one percent in palladium and one percent in silver, that's more or less half a billion Swiss francs," Andre Ludin, head of portfolio management at drugmaker Novartis AG, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

((Reporting by Atul Prakash, editing by Michael Roddy; Reuters Messaging: atul.prakash.reuters.com@reuters.net; +44 (0) 20 7542 7744))

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSL2166200920070521 (http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSL2166200920070521:cool)

:cool (http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSL2166200920070521:cool)

22.05.2007, 00:39
Korrekter Link


mama mia
22.05.2007, 21:02
@Hoka :supi


What Next for Silver?

Roland Watson
May 21, 2007

So silver has once again renewed its acquaintance with the 200 day moving average and the dirges regarding the death of a silver bull renew their solemn chants.

Why the fear and concern amongst silver analysts and silver investors in general? Various indicators suggest a potential breakdown in prices with bearish connotations. Now that raises one or two questions themselves. For one, what constitutes the end of a bull market?

That rather depends on your timeframe. One could easily argue silver has been in a bear market since Friday the 12th May 2006 as prices have drifted below the $15 high of that time. On the other hand, silver has not looked back since March 2003 when it traded for less than $4.50 giving us a full-blooded bull market whose demise is not on the cards quite yet. It depends on your timeframe, but nothing in the recent price action suggests the end of the silver bull market.

The other worrisome factor is the head and shoulders pattern that has developed in silver since last November. The chart below shows that unfolding pattern which has caused some analysts to reach for the "s", "e", "l" and "l" keys. However, we may point out another head and shoulders pattern that developed in silver in October 2006.

(Click on image to enlarge) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107/1_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107/1_big.gif) Like our current head and shoulders, this one touched the 200 day moving average only to be swatted like a fly before it got ideas above its station. Shall we see a repeat performance? I say most likely especially with silver so oversold as it is with not much room for further downside action. I suspect silver may drop further but a drop to $9 or $10 seems less likely on past performance.

In fact, failed head and shoulder patterns were not particularly difficult to find. Here is one for the HUI from about the same period, which also floundered on the rocks of the 200-day moving average.

(Click on image to enlarge) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107/2_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107/2_big.gif) But do not let me delude you into thinking that this means the silver ICBM is about to be unleashed from its silo to nuke the bears. I said the following a month ago in a previous article regarding certain price patterns in silver:

That brings me to some observations on the vagaries of analyzing price trends. As some commentators have pointed out, silver has been advancing on a rising support level, which can be drawn across the sequence of increasingly higher lows. That sounds bullish and it may yet prove to be but an analysis of the last good sized correction in silver between April 2004 and August 2005 suggests caution. The chart is attached to this email for you to follow (see below).

Note how after the big drop in April 2004, silver also advanced in a similar fashion to our current moves on a rising trend line until the old highs of $8.50 were nearly taken out in December 2004. However, this trend broke to the downside to begin a channel movement for silver for some months before the true breakout occurred in September 2005.

Will our current rising trend line support the price of silver or will we see a temporary breakdown? That previous rising trend line lasted 8 months. This current one has lasted 10 months. Once again, a breaking of the previous high of late February is required to maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and invalidate that analysis.

(Click on image to enlarge) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107/3_sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107/3_big.gif) Two things came true regarding those statements. The caution regarding faith in rising support lines proved right, as we have now broken below that rising support line. Secondly, I said the old February highs had to be taken out to be bullish. That high was not exceeded and we entered our current period of bearish price behaviour.

So what next for silver? There are three opinions you can take on this matter. You can sell up and declare the bull dead. Or you can say that silver will rocket from its 200 day moving average base to $15 and beyond. The third opinion based on the last major correction is that silver will move sideways before the next and final bull run begins. Since the silver analysis game is all about probabilities rather than certainties, I would bet on the sideways motion being more likely followed by the explosive breakout. I just hope any sideways motion does not last as long as the previous one! More information on how things may pan out for silver follows for subscribers.

Further analysis of silver can be had by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com (http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com/) where readers can obtain a free issue of The Silver Analyst and learn about subscription details. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk

May 18, 2007
Roland Watson
email: silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk. - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson052107.html

mama mia
22.05.2007, 21:10
Why the US$ will rally :rolleyes

Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
May 22, 2007

Below is an extract from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com (http://www.speculative-investor.com/)on 6th May 2007

The argument put forward by most US$ bears can be summarised as follows: Due to the large US current account deficit the dollar is destined to move much lower and, in fact, would already have plummeted to new multi-decade lows if not for the support provided over the past two years by favourable interest rate differentials. But the dollar's interest rate advantage is set to evaporate over the coming months as the Fed cuts rates in reaction to the housing-led US economic downturn while the ECB continues to push rates upward in reaction to Europe's strengthening economy. As a result, a major US$ breakdown is imminent.

Our view, however, differs from this conventional bearish wisdom. In particular, in commentaries over the years -- most recently in the 11th April 2007 Interim Update -- we've explained why a large current account deficit is not, in itself, a reason to be bearish on a currency.

The only aspect of the aforementioned bearish argument that rings true to us is the part about interest rates lending support to the dollar over the past two years. Note, though, that while interest rate differentials are important drivers of intermediate-term currency market trends they tend to operate with substantial time delays; so even if the dollar were to immediately lose its interest rate advantage over the euro this would probably not cause USD/EUR to move lower over the next 6 months. In any case, almost regardless of what happens in the housing market there is little chance of the Fed cutting the overnight target rate with gold hovering around $700/ounce and the global stock market rally in full swing. Actually, if gold moves up to test its May-2006 peak in the near future while cyclical assets such as equities and industrial commodities remain strong then the Fed's next move will most likely be a rate HIKE.

Those who are expecting the US$ to move much lower relative to the euro are, we think, making two logical errors (in this discussion we'll focus on the US$ relative to the euro because the euro is the other senior currency and because USD/EUR comprises almost 60% of the Dollar Index). As mentioned above and as discussed numerous times in the past, the first is to assume that a large current account deficit will necessarily translate into currency weakness. The second is to assume that the euro is somehow a harder/sounder currency than the dollar.

In our opinion, the euro is the ultimate fiat currency in the worst possible way. Whereas the dollar started out as a genuinely hard currency (a US dollar was originally a measure of gold) and evolved into a shadow of its former self over many generations, the euro has never been anything more than a political concoction (it began life as a shadow). Whereas the dollar was literally as good as gold at one point in the distant past, the euro has never been backed by anything more tangible than confidence* (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville052207.html#1).

So, if the current-account situation is not a primary driver of exchange rate trends and the euro is inherently no better than the dollar, then what should we be focusing on?

The answer is that the main long-term driver of currency exchange rates is the differences in the rates at which currencies lose purchasing power; and this, in turn, is primarily determined by differences in money-supply growth rates.

Due to the relatively high rate of growth in its supply during 1998-2002 the US$ began to lose purchasing power at a faster rate than the euro, leading to the long-term decline in the USD/EUR exchange rate that began in January-2002. But while the dollar appears to have lost less value relative to some currencies -- the Yuan and the Yen, for instance -- than would be justified by changes in purchasing power, it seems to have lost way too much value relative to the euro. Changes in purchasing power cannot be measured on an economy-wide basis so it is not possible to come up with a single number that represents the euro's excess value, but anecdotal evidence -- for example, the fact that Europeans are flocking to the US to shop -- suggests that the euro is presently trading at a premium of at least 20% to where it SHOULD be trading based on purchasing-power-parity considerations.

Had the supply of dollars continued to grow at a RELATIVELY fast rate then it might be reasonable to expect the closing of the purchasing power gap between the US and Europe to be driven by higher prices within the US rather than by a rally in the US$ relative to the euro. However, from the final quarter of 2003 through to the end of 2005 the total supply of US dollars consistently grew at a SLOWER rate than the total supply of euros. This set the stage for a dollar rally, but note that there is often a substantial delay -- at least 1 year and perhaps has much as 4 years -- between a major change in the money-supply growth trend and the effects of this change becoming evident in purchasing power and the foreign exchange market.

The following chart of US M3 money supply shows that the period of moderate dollar-supply growth ended in the final quarter of 2005. The rate of growth in the total supply of dollars then accelerated, but this is not a good reason to be bearish on the dollar relative to the euro because something similar happened to the euro supply. In fact, the supplies of most of the world's fiat currencies are now growing rapidly (the supplies of US dollars, euros, Australian dollars, Canadian dollars and British Pounds have expanded by 11%-14% over the past 12 months). Trying to pick the strongest of this group of currencies is therefore like trying to pick the smartest of a bunch of village idiots.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville052207.gif Chart source: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html In summary, the euro is very over-valued relative to the US$ at this time and neither money supply nor interest rate considerations support the continuation of this premium. We therefore expect the US$ to be trading at a substantially higher level relative to the euro at the end of this year than it is today.

This currency market view does not, however, automatically mean that we expect the US$ to move higher relative to gold. While a multi-month advance in the US$ relative to the euro would normally translate into a lower US$ gold price, we are anticipating an up-move in USD/EUR driven more by euro weakness rather than by genuine US$ strength. Such an outcome could coincide with gold rising in terms of all currencies, but rising less in US$ terms than in euro terms.

*The ECB has 20.6M ounces of gold in its currency reserves, but the current market value of this gold is equivalent to only 0.13% of total euro supply. The US$ has a marginally higher 'gold backing' in that the current market value of the US's 262.8M-ounce gold reserve is equivalent to around 1.5% of total dollar supply. In both cases the gold reserve is trivial compared to total money supply and doesn't constitute 'gold backing' in any meaningful way.

Steve Saville
http://www.321gold.com/ads/smallsaville.gif (http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html?321gold)email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Hong Kong - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville052207.html

22.05.2007, 21:11
Ist heute ein bisschen abgestürzt was? Aber das ändert sich ja auch wieder....


Happy Trading

mama mia
22.05.2007, 21:14
Verfasst von Eugen Weinberg (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=110) am 22.05.2007 um 11:46 Uhr
Rohstoffe kompakt: Gold - kurzfristig Rückschlagspotenzial

Die Preise für Gold und Silber haben in den letzten Wochen etwas nachgegeben. Aus technischer Sicht ist das Nichterreichen der 700 US-Dollar Marke u.E. als Schwäche zu deuten und spricht kurzfristig für einen Preisverfall.


Mitverantwortlich für die Schwäche war die spanische Notenbank, die im März und April jeweils rund 40 Tonnen Gold verkauft hat. Aber auch Anleger haben ihre physischen Goldbestände reduziert: das Volumen des größten Gold-ETFs streetTRACKS Gold Trust sank in nur einem Monat um knapp 4 Mio. Unzen bzw. 2,5%, was des Öfteren als zuverlässiger negativer Indikatorer galt.


Belastend in den Sommermonaten ist außerdem eine saisonal bedingte schwächere Schmucknachfrage. Den anhaltend hohen Optimismus sehen wir auch kritisch an.


An der COMEX haben die Netto-long Positionen der Großanleger kräftig angezogen und derzeit glauben laut Umfragen rund zwei Drittel der Marktteilnehmer unbeirrt an einen Preisanstieg. Ein zurückkehrender Realismus sollte eine Preiskorrektur forcieren. Ein in den nächsten Wochen aber nachwievor schwacher Dollar dürfte den Goldpreis jedoch unterstützen.

© Eugen Weinberg
Senior Commodity Analyst

Quelle: "Rohstoffe kompakt", Commerzbank AG - http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=4491

mama mia
22.05.2007, 21:16
:supi dass was geschrieben wird ;) bin dann auch wieder unterwegs :)

mama mia
22.05.2007, 21:24

HM....HUI deutet es schon an...:rolleyes

Zum Original-Beitrag (showthread.php3?p=1042576#post1042576)

22.05.2007, 22:56
Dazu passend folgende Informationen aus dem Kitco Forum:





It's always tough to work on a lag in the markets, but sometimes with the flow of information in the physical side of the metals markets, that's the way it has to be for investors.

So we know last week that 16 tonnes of gold came tumbling out of the GLD ETF…and we now know that ECB banks sold nearly 18 tonnes of gold the same week. The ECB updated this morning that two captive banks in the system sold 17.7 tonnes of gold last week (or $280 million euros).

It appeared that maybe the increased selling was slowing down last week with sales of only about 1.5 tonnes, but in reality, the ECB captive banks have yet to finish the massive increased selling into the market that began in March of this year. Forget about prudent timing, the market is having trouble digesting these sales. The market isn't collapsing, but the price is certainly being kept from rising as the injection of supply is sopping up the increased demand in the marketplace. For a point of reference, ECB banks have not sold this much gold in such a short time period in the life of the 2nd CBGA. In the last ten weeks, ECB banks have sold over 120 tonnes of gold into the market ($1.9 billion in euros or $2.55 billion in dollars). In the previous six months, ECB captive banks sold only 112 tonnes into the market.

The gold cascading out of the central bank vaults is also helping to explain why all of the rampant dehedging in the marketplace hasn't caused prices to jump considerably. With five months to go in order to fill the annual sales quota of 500 tonnes, ECB banks are still roughly 268 tonnes short of filling the quota. We still strongly believe that even with the ramped up selling in the past three months, the annual quota will not be met this year, the second time in the last two years.

On to another topic…sometimes the market analyst crew gets very cushy sending out missives without listening to what the miners think. While miners and executives rarely give price targets or clear market prognostications, it's important to hear what they have to say about the markets because in the end, they are the ones that find the product and without their efforts, the whole analyst crew would be out of a job. So I've grabbed two quotes below. One from Pierre Lassonde, former Newmont President and Chairman of the World Gold Council calling for $750 gold prices before year end and another from Gold Fields Chief Executive Ian Cockerill who made some pretty bold statements at a mining conference this past week about hedging practices, exploration efforts and the like.

These are the guys exploring and producing. If they're saying that there are no major new mineral finds and exploration budgets are still paltry…maybe they deserve a listen. It's going to be their actions that dictate the prices over the coming years.


Lack of big find keeps gold price up: Gold Fields
Tue May 22, 2007 7:23AM EDT
SYDNEY (Reuters) - A failure to find the next mother lode was helping prop up gold bullion prices, the head of South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd., the world's fourth-largest gold miner, said on Monday.

"There is a lack of exploration expenditure and a lack of discovery of any significant size," the company's chief executive, Ian Cockerill told a conference in the Australian city of Perth.

"The world is consuming 85 million ounces of gold a year but the industry is by no means finding and replacing that amount," he said.

Cockerill said the gold sector was firmly entrenched in a bull market and predicted there was still some way to go.

Gold to hit $US750 an ounce: Newmont
May 22, 2007 - 12:04PM
Newmont Mining Corp, the world's second largest gold producer, says the price of gold will hit $US750 an ounce by Christmas.

Regional group executive of Australia and Asia operation Russell Clark told delegates at the Paydirt gold conference in Perth that former Newmont president Pierre Lassonde believes gold will reach that level in the next seven months.

"Pierre is predicting a price of $US750 for gold by Christmas," Mr Clark said.
Mr Lassonde stepped down from his full time role as president of Newmont in December, but remains on the company's board as vice chairman.


Die Zentralbanken beweisen Bürgersinn und verteilen etwas von ihren glänzenden Vorräten an die Leute. Demokratisierung der Edelmetallbestände.

Das bullishe Element scheint mir das Dehedging zu sein. Die können doch nicht so blöd sein, lösen ihre Hedges auf und dann geht der Goldpreis dauerhaft in den Keller. Aber meine Hand würde ich dafür natürlich nicht ins Feuer legen.

23.05.2007, 00:05
Und das ist die Fortsetzung:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/core/i/t.gif Spain risks crisis over vanishing reserves

Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally. The bank has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, British gilts, and other investments at a similar rate.



mama mia
24.05.2007, 13:59

Gold & Silver Market Updates

Clive Maund
May 24, 2007


Oil is now very close to breaking out from the large Head-and-Shoulders bottom that we had earlier identified, and from the look of the latest oil COT chart, on which the Commercials short positions have shrunk dramatically, it is close to doing so - and if it does it will be on its way to $80 minimum. Needless to say this will be inflationary, and thus bullish for Precious Metals. Should this breakout occur, it will radically improve the outlook for gold and silver.


On the 6-month gold chart we can see that although gold has continued to decline over the past week or so, its rate of descent has slowed, so that a potential bullish Falling Wedge has appeared on the chart. In addition, short-term oscillators, shown at the top and bottom of the chart, are near their normal oversold limits, so there is certainly scope for a rally. Probably what we will now see is a strong rally from here followed by a reaction next month into the seasonal low period, before the advance resumes in earnest.

Finally a "V for Victory" intraday reversal appeared on the gold chart yesterday, providing additional evidence of a turnaround. While too much should not be read into the appearance of this Churchillian indication, viewed in conjunction with other indications it is a positive sign.


To the writer's knowledge, the V for Victory reversal was first spotted on the silver chart by Barb Moriarty of 321gold back in 2004, this sighting being reproduced below...



While looking weaker than gold at this time, silver is expected to turn up shortly for the same reason as gold - the inflationary implications of an impending sharp rise in the oil price - the expected breakout by oil from its large Head-and-Shoulders bottom formation will project it to a minimum target at $80.

On the 6-month silver chart we can see the potential Head-and-Shoulders top that has formed during this period, that had been identified earlier, but we can also see that, at least on the basis of its recent performance, silver is close to its normal oversold limits, as shown by the oscillators at the top and bottom of the chart, so there is plenty of scope for an advance. Note also how it is at a classic buy spot, being just above its 200-day moving average, the point where it turned around on 2 previous occasions during this period.


Thus, despite the potential Head-and-Shoulders top in silver, and despite it looking weaker than gold at this point, with its downtrend not converging in the same bullish manner as the downtrend in gold, the combination of the powerful bullish influence of a strongly rising oil price and its present oversold condition have created the conditions for a strong rally that is likely to start soon. Probably what we will now see is a strong rally from here followed by a reaction next month into the seasonal low period, before the advance resumes in earnest.

The Commercials short positions in silver fell significantly last week, but were not, as of last Tuesday, at a level thought to be low enough to allow for a big rally. It will therefore be interesting to observe the situation at the end of this week, to see if they raced to the exits early this week as they did with their oil short positions early last week.

May 22, 2007
Clive Maund

Zum Original-Beitrag (showthread.php3?p=1043057#post1043057)

mama mia
26.05.2007, 11:44
:verbeug @de-dithmarscher ---> Daily #10088

Nine U.S. warships enter Gulf for training -
Wed May 23, 2007 1:35AM EDThttp://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2360749620070523 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2360749620070523)
UN warns on Iran nuclear schedule -

THE FIRST GREAT GOLD RUSH began in 1971....


THE FIRST GREAT GOLD RUSH began in 1971...
gold prices ran from $35 to over $700, a twentyfold rise!
A decade later, prices settled near $300,
nearly a tenfold increase!

THE SECOND GREAT GOLD RUSH, Phase One began in 2001....
gold prices have run from $275 to over $675 (25% growth/year!)
Not bad, but this is still just the warm up phase!

THE SECOND GREAT GOLD RUSH, Phase Two begins in 2007...
gold prices are expected to climb above $750 this year!
If gold prices rise twenty-fold from $275,
that's a $5,500 peak price,
with gold settling near $2,750,
a tenfold increase and 400% higher than today's price.

Good news! You're not too late...
Bull markets in commodities run 15 to 23 years on average.
Experts say these first five years have been a stealth bull market,
mostly hidden from the public.
But not for much longer!

The mass media is gradually informing the public about
the exciting future of gold.
We suggest staking your gold claim ASAP,
ahead of the crowd -- but first,
you need trustworthy educational tools to help you
get up to speed on gold investments, quickly.

The future of gold... free offer!
Good council from dozens of market experts equals great wisdom.
Reaching your financial goals in the future will require both
information and inspiration. Swiss America's 25th Anniversary
Issue of Real Money Perspectives,
"The Future of Gold 2007"
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* WHY... 35 experts see four-digit gold ahead
* WHAT's... the best form of gold to own?
* HOW... America's "dollar illusion" will end
* WHEN... the $480 trillion debt bubble pops
* PLUS... How to privatize your wealth today
* AND ... Owning gold in your retirement plan



GOLD this POG is an Au bargain opportunity -

Northgate Minerals BC Largest GOLD Producer -


Corrupt Federal Reserve - National Debt is a Scam -
Bank video you must see -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecpwO7nD7TA (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecpwO7nD7TA)

Not Federal; No Reserve -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTqDFss24Hw&NR=1 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTqDFss24Hw-*-NR=1)

BANKS OF AMERICA-Federal Reserve Bank KILLING America PT 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_vLTSWpQcY&mode=related&search= (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_vLTSWpQcY-*-mode=related-*-search=)


GOLD Bullion Futures Mega LT uptrend -
the volatility over the past year doesn't look like much -

On the contrary, this chart illustrates Gold's strength as it sits
near the high side of the rise that started in 2001 -

This is an important picture to keep in mind -
when investing in Gold -
The GOLD Long Term Bull market since 2001 is clearly underway


This GOLD bull market rise is going to make the 1970s -

spectacular rise look small in comparison.

It will take time, but it's powerful because it's more of -
a global market today compared to the 1970s.
Aden cont.

GOLD # 1 Target Focus $888.88 per ounce -

The Copper HG-highgrade Cu futures bullion -
Copper commodity market prices have never been HIGHER -

This is a live Copper Cu HG future Chart -
Use refresh button for current Cu bullion price -

The High Copper Cu HG prices will for sure be great for -
NXG Northgate who is of Canada's large -
Copper & Gold Mines -

Kemess South Mine Performance -
For the full year 2006;

Kemess Mine posted record Gold and Copper -

production of GOLD 310,296 ounces of Au -
(free - to no cost - as a by-product -
on the huge Copper production -
Cu which makes a big profit by itself -
plus all the Silver also creme on my
NGX profit cake)


Produced COPPER 81.2 million pounds of Cu -

- The Kemess South Mine -

- Production of Au 68,110 ounces of Gold -


- Cu 17.7 million pounds of Copper during
- the first quarter of 2007 -

- A net cash cost of Gold production of Au $28 per ounce -

- The addition of Au 175,000 ounces of Gold to reserves at
- Kemess South, extending the mine-life by one year
- until the fourth quarter of {2010} or to that more exploration
- extension to be announced -
- Ex. dd....
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3041 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3041)
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5487 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5487)

Kemess was the safest metal mine in British Columbia
during the first quarter of 2007.
The mine recorded no lost time injuries and only four medical
aids during the quarter continuing the strong safety
performance that was established in 2006.

At Young-Davidson,
our project team has made excellent progress on the underground
ramp development, shaft dewatering and various technical studies.
In the coming months, the surfaced-based diamond drilling program
will be focusing on regions between areas of known resources with
the goal of significantly increasing measured and indicated
resource ounces by the end of the year."

NXG - Mill throughput during the quarter
averaged 49,645 metric tonnes (mt) per day -
Imo. Tia.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3041 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3041)

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5487 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5487)


Wealth based on debt -


were have 88 been for 100 years? -
the fedzclownz have destroyed the $ -

its sad, but the fiatz are counterfeit papers -
which going down, down, down like all fiatz -
and will be worthless -
the 666debt makes it worthless day by day -

buy, buy, buy you may say -
when you get something for worthless papers -
its backed by the paper only -
and the fedz666 clown-crownies! -
do you want to save worthless toilet papers? -

The Safety is Gold & Silver - King & Queen -
Standard rule for any Real Money -
its been the way for 1000s of years -

the fiatz was introduced by fedz & Nixon 1971? -
the fiats$ toilet papers its to be glad -
as long as anyone want them! -

your debt? -
you may can pay 1 new $ for 1000 old $$ when
a new $ is printed by the old Real $GOLD Standard Money -


Iraq War costing fiatz$-toilet-paper -
http://nationalpriorities.org/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=182 (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=nationalpriorities.org/index.php?option=com_wrapper-*-Itemid=182)

(btw. fair market value should be at least 5 times higher! -
don't listen or trust the 666banksterz anti-Christ gangz -
they are the 666devilz 911-copycatz only out to destroy America? -
their spec. shortsellingz, hedgefundz, nss-devilz basherz etc.?

Watch this!
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIrfhgQPAJ1s.asf (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIrfhgQPAJ1s.asf)

they will only put other peoples money in wcom, enron, bre-x etc.
so they can punch hole, shortsell and rob it?)

http://globalfire.tv/nj/07en/globalism/us_insolvent.htm (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=globalfire.tv/nj/07en/globalism/us_insolvent.htm)


http://globalfire.tv/nj/06en/globalism/gold_conspiracy.htm (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=globalfire.tv/nj/06en/globalism/gold_conspiracy.htm)

history repeat itself

http://www.informationliberation.com/ (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.informationliberation.com/)
more info - click on Geopolitics

Imo. Tia.
http://www.888c.com/ (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.888c.com/)
God Bless
RR thanks for good info.

One good day it will be an 888 Gov. in place -
don't trust the 666banksters911 bolsheviks -
give them a free ticket back to the bolshevikz666 - russia -
still to less for hedgebanksters911destroying=nss666 -
stop the bolshevikz666banksters911destruction of -
banksters should never be allowed to own any brokerage -
clinton who allowed it was fooled by 666destroyed911America -
666bankstersbashers911evilz *G the666clownzallover G*terror

The Liberty of America,
http://www.888c.com/ (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.888c.com/)

In original tongues scriptual:

666 left side **** 888 Right side
666 short*nss **** 888 Longs NGX Au
666 banksters **** 888 Gold Money
666 fiatzredz **** 888 Au Standard
666 basherneg **** 888 PR positivity
666 novisionz **** 888 panoramic
666 evilz911z **** 888 Missions
666 bolshevik **** 888 Vaticanus

http://www.888c.com/ (http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.888c.com/)
God Bless 100%,

the bolshevikz group - anything they don't own -
they bashing down to destroy -
so their longfingered 666gypsys911 -
want it for nothing!!!

US$ Bust - Northgate Is Very Good To Own -



Beware: Bucky about to fall down the cliff -


Northgate is a very good Gold & Copper Mining stock to own -
Imo. Tia.
RR thanks for info.

28.05.2007, 15:06
:ek Chinesinnen versetzen ihren Schmuck beim Pfandleiher, um Aktien zu kaufen?


Aktien als bevorzugter Hedge gegen Inflation? Gemäss Peter Schiff sollte sich das mit steigenden Zinsen ändern.

May 25, 2007

Is Global Stock Market Exuberance Rational?
http://www.europac.net/images/printer.jpg (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:window.print%28%29;) http://www.europac.net/images/email.jpg (http://www.europac.net/emailcomment.asp?id=8695)
As stocks markets around the world rise to record highs, even former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan could not refrain from raising concerns about surging Chinese stocks. Lest we forget, Greenspan is on record for declaring the impossibility of spotting a bubble before it bursts. But in the few times that he has violated his own credo, his vision has proven invariably faulty. Not only did he warn of irrational exuberance in the U.S. just before a five-fold increase in the NASDAQ, but he became one of the markets biggest boosters once the market peaked. Based on his track record, I interpret his statements as a screaming buy signal for Chinese stocks.

However, the larger issue is whether the world’s renewed love affair with stock investing is rational. From my perspective it certainly is, but not for the reasons most analysts believe. My guess is that common stocks have become the inflation hedge of choice. With the global growth in the money supply at record pace, reaching into annual double-digit growth in just about every nation, cash has indeed become trash. With so much cash sloshing around, pushing asset and commodity prices up everywhere they are accurately measured, preservation of purchasing power is now of primary concern. For most investors common stocks seem like the best way to achieve it.

Nowhere is this dynamic more visible then in China. With annual money supply growing at close to 20% per year, it’s no wonder that the Chinese do not want to hold any yuan! They would rather convert their yuan into something more tangible before their government prints any more. However, although it does not get as much press, the phenomenon is even more evident in Zimbabwe, where money supply growth and stock market performance are both the highest in the world. This despite the fact the Zimbabwe economy is world’s weakest. The only practical alternative for Zimbabweans, who can't get their money out of the country, is to buy stocks as soon as they get any cash.

The persistent weakness in bonds and corresponding recent rise in interest rates further supports my point. Investors are getting out of cash and bonds (which merely represent future payments of cash) in favor of tangible assets such as equities. The fact that rising interest rates are ultimately negative for stocks is conveniently ignored, as the race to get out of cash trumps all else. In the U.S., the yield on the 10-year Treasury has backed up 25 basis points in the last three weeks. If yields rise above 5% on this move, which looks very likely, momentum should take yields to 5.25% before the end of June. There will be some resistance there, but look for 10-year yields to breach 5.5% before the end of the summer. Once that level is taken out, I expect a move above 6% to happen very quickly, perhaps even before the year ends. Is it just me, or does this seem eerily familiar to the summer of 1987?

Ultimately, rising interest rates will eventually exact a toll on stocks, especially here in the United States. As the world’s largest debtor nation, America will suffer disproportionately from rising interest rates, as we are on the paying end of the transactions. Also, given the proliferation of short-term debt and adjustable-rate mortgages, this burden will become increasingly difficult to bear. As the U.S. economy falls into recession, with interest rates and consumer prices continuing their ascents, corporate earnings will suffer, causing stock market investors to seek out other inflation hedge alternatives, particularly gold.

For those who are impressed by the recent global stock market rally, wait until you see what will happen to the price of gold. As the old saying goes, there is no rush like a gold rush, and this one will be a stampede. Got gold?


28.05.2007, 15:54
Die technischen Indikatoren scheinen sich nicht einig zu sein, ob es rauf oder runter geht.

Outlook for the week starting May 28th (week 22)

When all lines up in the disadvantage of gold, the metal has little options but surrendering and moving lower. That is what happened during the second part of week 21, after gold had struggled [in the first part of the week] to retain the topside of key support levels and after trying to stabilize the sentiment.
On the daily charts, there seems little counterweight in stopping gold’s downwards spiral, which has been going on for three consecutive weeks now. The relative strength indicator (RSI) is leaning towards a strongly oversold condition on the short term and may call for a rebound, whereas other short term technicals still point to further losses, assisted by high number of open contracts and meager buying interest. Much will depend on which of the technicals can put the most weight on the scale. If prices keep on top of the 652$/oz key support, some upward movement is favorable. The yellow metal however needs more fundamental or bullish geopolitical news to regain its health and create upside potential.

When considering the weekly charts, it is noticeable that gold is just above its long term channel support at 652$/oz, supporting the notion that a rebound from this key support may be expected. A decisive failure of the weekly support channel should in the other case suggest the continuation of the short term downwards trend.



01.06.2007, 12:31
Gold exposed signs of recovery by closing above 659$/oz and near the short term key resistance level at 665$/oz. The advances yesterday and overnight were also characterised by a modest decoupling to the dollar, indicating its willingness to recover further after three consecutive weeks of slumping behavior. Although currency clues may continue to drive the metal either way over the short term, expect the upside potential to outweigh the downside pressure for today, with the August contract attaining cruising speed..
A weekly close between 661$/oz and 665$/oz would support the notion that the recovery is building a base for further gains near 672$/oz.

Support is seen at 661$/oz, 659$/oz and 655$/oz, whereas resistance is ahead of 665$/oz and 670$/oz. A daily



01.06.2007, 15:45
Let's put it this way: who has been judging correctly with regard to the wisdom of owning gold - a few dozen Central Bankers and Treasury chiefs, or millions of human beings around the globe? The collective wisdom of mankind has always held gold in high regard; surely it will continue to do so until the end of time. The few dozen arrogant men who think that this collective wisdom can and should be wiped out, are fighting the wishes of humanity and will have to fail in their efforts, simply because the IMF figures tell us that if they insist on being stubborn about not allowing the price of gold to rise and persisting in the sale of Central Bank gold, they will end up with no gold to sell.



Das Gold sammelt sich bei den Indern, unter den Matratzen.

01.06.2007, 16:01
Go goldies, go



01.06.2007, 16:48

1 June 2007 - The ECB’s gold sales

Over the past two months, the European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted gold sales amounting to 37 tons of gold.

These sales are in full conformity with the Central Banks’ Gold Agreement, dated 27 September 2004, of which the ECB is a signatory.

Together with the gold sales of 23 tons, completed on 30 November 2006, the ECB has thus sold 60 tons of gold in the third year of the agreement, which started on 27 September 2006 and ends on 26 September 2007.

It is not the ECB’s intention to sell more gold in the current year of the agreement.

European Central Bank
Directorate Communications
Press and Information Division
Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 69 1344 8304, Fax: +49 69 1344 7404
Internet: http://www.ecb.int Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.


mama mia
01.06.2007, 16:54
:supi dass hier geschrieben wird :)

Uranium Targets $150 whilst Gold Investors Worry / Commodities (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html) / Gold & Silver (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Category6-All.html)

May 31, 2007 - 09:45 AM By: David_Vaughn

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/topics/commodities.gif (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html)

I know this subject probably gets boring to hear about, but it is still at the top of the charts so it deserves coverage.

We are talking about uranium of course. But what about gold? Everyone is panicking over gold and I can tell by the emails I receive that many are wringing their hands in worry and anxiety. Do I know what gold will do tomorrow? Yes, I do. It will do what it wishes to do regardless of projections from optimists or the dooms day club.

But realistically? My mind cannot help but go back to those humble days when gold slid to the low 250s. And then in the fall of 2005 gold finally after ages it seems ascended 500 dollars an ounce. A figure it had not reached in a very long time. Ultimately, gold will do what gold wants to do.

Let's be honest here and provide a comment of public sentiment now about the gold price. The following below is a good example of how many are panicking over the gold price.

Dave, “Odd you didn't mention gold. Is that because it's declining as we speak and soon to take out 630 at which time according to the Aden Sisters the gold bull will be over. Obviously all this coiled spring approach to gold was wrong. Why not come out and admit it.” John F.

Let's listen to what gold analyst Bill Buckler has to say about the present direction of the gold price. This man always is right on the money.

Bill Buckler - “Gold (and its holders) have nothing to worry about anyway. Gold as money has outlived the collapse (violent or otherwise) of countless empires. One more won't make much difference. The one difference is that the building up of the US Empire has distorted the global financial and monetary system to a FAR greater degree than any of its predecessors. That makes the "potential" for Gold that much greater than it has ever been before. Right now, it's worth the wait.” “As we stated here two weeks ago, these are the numbers to watch out for:

80.60 - the USDX post 2002 bear market low set at the end of 2004
80.00 - the USDX "floor" ever since the beginning of the fiat currency era in 1973
$ US 692.00 - the 2007 spot future closing high for Gold
$US 721.50 - the post 2002 bull market spot future closing high for Gold set in May 2006 Click (http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html)
I continue to look at gold as more than a short term phenomena. I look back at those 20 years that constituted a bear market from 1980 to 2,000. I just don't see gold heading back to gold's bottom in the low 250s. But what do I know? Only God above knows for sure either our future or gold's'.

So let's sit back and watch.

But let's go back to uranium as that is definitely the most exciting commodity at the moment. Uranium appears on a tear that continues to gain momentum. What do I think uranium will do tomorrow? Uranium is harder to figure out as it is not a controlled or manipulated market. So in real terms the price action is for real and on the level and generated primarily by real supply and real demand factors.

“The price of uranium could reach $150 this year or next, but should ease over the longer term, the chief executive of Denison Mines Corp. (DML.TO: Quote, Profile, Research said on Wednesday.” “Shares of small-to-mid tier uranium players such as Toronto-based Denison, SXR Uranium One (SXR.TO: Quote, Profile, Research and Mega Uranium (MGA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research have soared over the past year, as uranium prices jumped to levels last seen in the 1970s on strong demand that has outstripped the industry's ability to produce.” "(The price) keeps climbing every couple of weeks at least," he said.” "You're going to see, I would suspect clearly, $150 a pound and probably a push beyond that." Click (http://www.reuters.com/article/GlobalMiningandSteel07/idUSN2325665220070523)

Paul Newman even puts his blessing on the US nuclear industry.

“…legendary actor Paul Newman…” Mr. Newman reported as follows: “I recently toured the Indian Point nuclear plant and I expected to be shown safety and security at the plant. But what I saw exceeded my expectations. No Army or Navy base I've ever visited has been more armored and I couldn't walk 30 feet inside the plant without swiping my key card to go through another security check point. There was security at every turn, and the commitment to safety is clear.” “We agree with both Mr. Malone and Mr. Newman that nuclear power will be more important for the anticipated dramatic electricity growth in the future.” Click (http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/05/25/2661966.htm)

Below is an interesting comment from a reader.

David, “I enjoy reading you....whenever I spy your name, I always pull up your article and settle in for a good read.” “I've been burned by other gold writers .... writers I've admired, when ---- out of the blue, have read something they've written that's so dang vitriolic about George Bush or the war, I have been literally stopped in my tracks and stunned into amazed and puzzled silence! Most recently, xxxx xxxx, in the concluding paragraph of his latest piece "Don't Cry for the US Dollar", wrote of George Bush contracting a "case of poison ivy in his private parts" .... "during the rape of an innocent girl".... (Say what? ...!!) I've read Mr. XXXX's articles before, presumed him to be a rational human being...and then BOOM!--out of seeming nowhere comes sheer irrationality.” “What do you suppose accounts for such vitriol?” “I'm curious as to your thoughts…” Dave W.

Like my barber always tells me, “Too much information.” “Don't have time to be angry and cold, heartless and ruthless. Just appreciate the good and let go of the bad. Hope I answered your question!” Dave

“I am convinced that the sack of Rome five years ago (410AD) by the Visigoths, even though they withdrew after a few days, was a signpost to the future. Rome is going down; its era is ending…”Norman F. Cantor, Antiquity


“I am convinced that the sack of New York City five years ago by the Islamic terrorists, even though destruction was limited to one cruel day, was a signpost to the future. The United States is going down; its era is ending…” David Vaughn

Remember legendary Market guru Jim Rogers? Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros and has focused heavily on commodities since 1998.

“The commodities bull market has another decade to run…”

“People don't understand what happens in bull markets. You're going to have some big reversals and changes and a continued explosion in the price of commodities.” “He believes the US dollar is heading the way of the Dutch guilder and Spanish peso, both once the world's reserve currencies.” “Get out of the dollar, teach your children Chinese and buy as many commodities as you can.” “Sometimes I wonder if our central bank is just going to print money until we run out of trees."

The following below is a good and astute comment from a reader.

Dear David, “I've read many of your posts on XXXX over the past year. I've owned gold & silver bullion since 1989 and just in the past 1 1/2 years began buying stocks based on Doug Casey's recommendations. I've done OK, but I've watched profits come and go because I just don't know when to sell…” “Casey usually recommends selling half on a double and I've been able to do that a couple times, but I know I should be doing better…” “I used to think $200 a year was a lot when I joined until I got the first double.” “When I told some friends that I paid that amount for a subscription to speculate, they thought I was crazy, but none of them ever came close to a double in their blue chips and mutuals.” Steve

Continue doing what Doug Casey tells you to do. If he recommends you to sell half a stock when it doubles then do so. The man knows this business. Otherwise you're wasting your money subscribing to his material. Do what the man tells you.

“According to the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), license applications for more than 18 new reactors could be filed by a dozen energy companies by 2009.”“If we go at it the right way as an industry, I think it can be terribly successful.” “…the renaissance will emerge several years down the road. Probably on the order of five to ten years to get the real production to where we want it to be, Malone said.” “Malone firmly believes there will be a nuclear renaissance in the United States . We need electricity…” Click (http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/05/25/2661966.htm)

And let's take a pause here to remind us of the good ole US debt.

“Taxpayers on the hook for $59 trillion.” “The federal government recorded a $1.3 trillion loss last year — far more than the official $248 billion deficit — when corporate-style accounting standards are used, a USA TODAY analysis shows.” "We're on an unsustainable path…” “Bottom line: Taxpayers are now on the hook for a record $59.1 trillion in liabilities, a 2.3% increase from 2006. That amount is equal to $516,348 for every U.S. household. By comparison, U.S. households owe an average of $112,043 for mortgages, car loans, credit cards and all other debt combined.” Click (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-05-28-federal-budget_N.htm)

Did you just read the above financial analysis? Naaa. Who needs gold. This ole' US debt bubble can grow to eternity and the friendly folks at China, Inc. will always be there to buy US debt. What, me worry?

“Gold has a universal appeal and value, he says, and recommends people put an average of $5000 or $10,000 aside in the precious metal.” “It's always a good time to buy gold," he says. "Five years ago it was worth $200 plus, now it's worth $600 plus." “…NZ Mint is predicting gold to rise to more than US$1000 in the coming 24 to 36 months - it currently sits just below US$700.” “Overseas investors have about a 10-12 per cent exposure to gold in their investment portfolios and pension funds in America have an exposure to gold, says Sutton, who believes that an exposure of between 8 and 12 per cent of a portfolio is about right.” Click (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/author/story.cfm?a_id=288&objectid=10440629)

Should gold bugs and friends of gold in general wish for a total financial meltdown in this country?

“A collapse in the dollar and a corresponding total decimation of the US economy would leave the world rudderless and chaos could ensue. Let's hope it doesn't happen. Gold investors should wish for an orderly rise in the price of gold, rather than a dramatic one. Perhaps Central Bank intervention may help this be achieved. I, personally, do not think that Central Bank activity can significantly depress the gold price long term, but it can mitigate against the kind of dramatic increase which could be the precursor to worldwide financial collapse which would, in reality, be to the benefit of no-one.” Click (http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=21447&sn=Detail)

And one more plug for dear uranium?

“A top Russian nuclear expert said Monday the world price for raw uranium may continue growing at the same pace as in past years, driving prices up at least 10 times more. "The price of raw uranium has grown 15 times in the past years, from $20 to $300 per kilo. I think it may still grow by another order of magnitude," Yevgeny Velikhov, head of the key Russian nuclear Kurchatov Institute, told a RIA Novosti news conference." Click (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070521/65826540.html)

There's a lot happening today on the world scene. Most of the action is so subtle it occurs un-noticed right under our nose. Only the shock news and entertainment driven events catch our attention on the evening news. In the ocean we notice immediately when the waves are so high their surf is tearing the beach apart and sinking fishing boats. But the really dangerous and most significant actions are unseen riptide currents occurring under what appears on the surface to be calm water. That describes in great detail world politics today. And it is that subtle quiet under current and riptide effect that will continue to make uranium, gold and all the resource stocks so popular as the years progress in the new century.

Recognizing that we are in a new investment era that is changing the way we invest Gold Letter, Inc. reviews undervalued gold, silver, uranium and other resource stocks under valued and poised to rise in this time of increased demand for all resources. Gold Letter's 10 best performing stocks are up over 2,000% and GL's top 50 performing stocks are up over 500%. GL charts are computer generated and updated every hour while markets are open.

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01.06.2007, 23:07
Kommentar von Trader Dan

Gold looks to have put in a bottom here with today’s strong performance. That ECB news is going to have some strong reverberations going forward as it will serve to embolden the bulls. What is also very encouraging is to see the gold holdings in the Streetracks ETF rise nearly 5 tons yesterday. If the gold disgorging has ceased in there, the market will also gain further confidence that the worst is behind us for gold and will come to the view that the low $650 region is the new and higher level of major support. When you toss in what seems to be shaping up as a stellar performance for the HUI today, gold has a type of Trifecta going for it right now. Solid technical charts, increase in the ETF gold holdings and a massive upside weekly reversal in the HUI. All in all, this week will sure go a long way to soothing the hearts of weary gold bulls who will probably be seen walking around town with a much lighter step than they possessed last weekend. All of you guys on the window ledges can come in now.




02.06.2007, 15:05
Erhellendes von Dan Norcini zu den oftmals nebulösen COT-Daten und jede Menge Charts.



03.06.2007, 22:19
Outlook for the week starting June 4th (week 23)

After three consecutive weeks of downwards pressure and movement, gold has rebounded mid-week after having formed a double bottom on the charts, and keeping the support level intact. A double bottom forms strong evidence of trend reversal after an extended downtrend. Gold was able to set aside strength in the dollar, and its gains indicate an upswing in sentiment and bode well for the short-term outlook for the yellow metal. This notion is supported as gold kept on top of its long-term channel support on the weekly charts.

Although the statement by the ECB not to sell any gold until September is only limited to itself - thus not including eventual gold sales by its subsidiary banks - the mental effect may likely exceed the physical effect of the gold sales. As such, the timing of this release could hardly been any better. This news was a direct injection of adrenaline into the weak hearted sentiment and may help gold revisit its key resistance levels at 694$/oz and 700$/oz. Fundamentals should never be ignored, and with the RSI indicating a short-term [mild] overbought condition after the sharp rally on Thursday and Friday, a period of consolidation may be called upon, making room for further gains. Downside risk is expected to be minimal and the number of support levels is dense.

A bit contradictory, further support could indirectly originate from the large fall in open contracts on Wednesday, after having set a record high earlier in the week. This substantial drop may be due to someone or a group having taken a large delivery of physical gold as the June contract expired on Thursday, which is sending a bullish signal (physical gold is harder to cash than speculative 'paper'-gold, and the physical demand is therefore seen as an indicator for longer term price evolution). This occurrence may also reduce the number of investors who favor shorting the gold market, hereby lessening the price capping, the consequence shorting.



05.06.2007, 08:54

Autoverkäufe im Mai - 11 %. In Deutschland hängt jeder 8. Arbeitsplatz
am Auto.

Graf kauf Autos!

05.06.2007, 18:12
Aus dem Kitco Forum:

Hier halten sie den Goldpreis unten -

Timing is of course impossible to predict, but I think a dollar crisis is very close, which explains why central banks have been dishoarding so much gold in recent weeks. They are trying to keep gold under $700. I expect they are thinking what I am thinking -- that when gold finally climbs above $700, it will just keep climbing higher and the dollar crisis I am expecting will have by then begun in earnest. Central banks do not want to see that event. But rather than force the US to mend its ways by managing the dollar responsibly, they are instead acting to keep the fiat currency game going in the hope that a capped gold price will cause people to take their eye off the ball.

I believe that a dollar crisis could happen any week now. In fact, it has probably already begun given the stock market’s relentless climb, but watch gold carefully here. A break above $719 into new multi-decade highs will be the next sign that the flight from the dollar is gaining momentum.


während sie hier Schlange stehen für Gold, obwohl doch in Indien gar nicht Kaufsaison ist?

The recent sharp upward correction in the gold price can be traced directly to the European Central Bank's announcement this past Thursday that it would not be selling any more gold through September. Demand had already been on the rise as the price dropped over the past 30 days, and the ECB announcement simply added fuel to the fire. The refinery, MKS Finance SA in Switzerland, reports in a Bloomberg article that buyers must line up in a "queue" to get the metal because of ramping demand in India and other parts of Asia. Throughout this period we have been advising our clients that the recent downtrend would be a good time to purchase gold due to the fact that the announced sales would be confined within the 500-tonne annual sales limitation of the European Central Bank Gold Agreement. In other words, the sales for the most part have already been factored into the gold price. We have been suggesting there could be a slingshot effect and that is exactly what happened late last week. Recent activity proves once again (as we have been saying all along), "In this bull market, it pays to buy the dips."


06.06.2007, 12:18
Falls jemand noch etwas vom spanischen Gold will ...

Gold softened early in the NY session, as the dollar recovered a bit and a better than expected reading on the ISM-Non-Manufacturing Index was also dollar supportive. The Euro managed to remain on top of the 1.3520 support level. A more distressing influence for gold came from the supply side, as Spain’s central bank sold 30 tonnes of gold in May, after already having sold 80 tonnes in March and April combined. Additionally, the likeliness that the Bank of Spain has received the 100 metric tonnes quota that the Bundesbank has no plans to use, may be indicating that clouds are gathering over the short-term outlook.


He said probably Spain was selling gold because the metal was making up an increasing proportion of its reserves. It also appeared likely that the Bank of Spain had received the 100 tonne quota that the Bundesbank had no plans to use, he said.

"Central Bank gold sales always seem to influence market sentiment by more than they should and this news ... is not positive for the short-term outlook for gold."


07.06.2007, 16:06
Year of the Golden Pig? Tönt gut.

Gold-mining companies reduced output to a 10-year low of 2,471 metric tons in 2006, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. Demand for gold from India, the world's largest buyer, rose 50 percent in the first quarter of 2007 while demand in China gained 31 percent, according to the World Gold Council.



07.06.2007, 17:27
Hier noch die afrikanische Optik:

Doubling up demand

Lear Financial research indicates global demand for gold reached $17.4-billion in the first quarter of 2007, more than double the level of four years earlier and 22 percent higher, in dollar terms, than in the first quarter of 2006.

In tonnage terms total demand was four percent higher than the first quarter of 2006. Jewellery demand was 17 percent higher in tonnage terms than the weak first quarter and 38 percent higher in dollar terms.

"Demand from China and India in both oil and gold, combined with tensions in the Middle East have some analysts predicting higher price trends for both commodities. Investor analysts are indeed pleased to see that after an almost year-long hiatus, the Asian (India in particular) gold jewellery demand has once again become robust," the WGC said.


07.06.2007, 18:05


07.06.2007, 22:55
Das Dehedging geht weiter.

AUSTRALIA'S biggest gold producer, Newcrest , has its revenue-sapping gold hedge book under the microscope, raising the prospect of a big rights issue to cover the $1.5 billion cost of a complete dehedging exercise.

The market reacted warmly to the prospect by driving Newcrest shares up 29c, or 1.2 per cent, to $23.90 after the dehedging possibility was raised by Newcrest managing director Ian Smith after he addressed the Melbourne Mining Club lunch at the Town Hall.

Dehedging by the world's big goldminers is under way on a grand scale in expectation that the gold price will continue to strengthen. Investors are demanding dehedged company profiles after gold's return to favour in recent years triggered massive hedge book losses.


07.06.2007, 23:00
Am 7. Juni 2007 einen Artikel geposted, der am 8. Juni 2007 erschienen ist. :cool

08.06.2007, 11:57
For today, expect gold to draw support in the 655$-656$/oz zone, and then 652$/oz. By falling substantially yesterday, gold has wound-off its overbought condition, but is left in an even more uncomfortable position that it had been before. While gold could be viewed as a cheap buy at these levels, the global uncertainty over interest rates may counter indicate this view, for now.

If gold would retain a close above 656$/oz, no intrinsic chart damage - despite yesterdays fall - would be done. If gold however fails the 652$/oz support level (and its 651.50$/oz double bottom), there may further downside risk. Resistance is ahead of 660$/oz and 665$/oz.

Expect volatility through today’s session, with the evolution of equity markets and the dollar as most important guidance. Oil is seen offering little support, although remaining at high levels near 71$/barrel (Brent Crude). Some position squaring ahead of the weekend may ease some of the pressure, but whether it will pull the shortest straw is yet to be seen.


08.06.2007, 22:48
Well done Hank!


Von Axstone aus dem Kitco Forum. Ihm gehört der grüne Korb da unten, sage er. :rolleyes

09.06.2007, 18:10
Hier noch die Ansichten dieser bekannten Analysten aus der Finanzmetropole London zur Problematik, dass die Dinge manchmal so sind wie sie scheinen.



09.06.2007, 18:31
Charts von Dan Norcini


mama mia
10.06.2007, 19:21
Marc Faber Predicts More Correction (Part 2 of 2)


...vielleicht war das jetzt diese correction :confused:rolleyes:cool

mama mia
10.06.2007, 19:34
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 10th June 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html) / Gold & Silver (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Category6-All.html)

Jun 10, 2007 - 01:20 AM By: Merv_Burak

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/topics/commodities.gif (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html)

WOW! Nibble, nibble, nibble then plunge, plunge. Now what should we expect? Five days of down side, one should expect a few up sides BUT would you put money on that?

A couple of scary days but we're still a long way away from going bearish on the long term P&F chart. That point is still the $600 level.

As for the normal indicators, Friday the price closed below my weighted long term moving average line although the line is still pointing gently higher. Most analysts use the simple moving average. The price is still above that moving average line but by less than $10. As for the price momentum, that continues to head towards its neutral line but not quite there yet. It is just about at the same level where it was during the $603 January low and zeroing in on its previous lowest low of the past year which was at the October low just before the latest series of rallies started. As for the volume action, the volume indicator is below its trigger line and the line has turned down.

Last week I went back into the bullish camp (from neutral the previous week) and I will remain BULLISH for at least another week. To turn bearish would require a shift in the moving average information and/or a serious drop in momentum.



The intermediate term P&F chart went bearish a few weeks back and remains so. The projection at that time was to the $605 level and nothing has changed.

That rebound back into the up trending channel didn't last long. A reader suggested that by using a semi-log scale the rebound would not have entered back into the channel. From my data the price would just have poked its head slightly into the channel but not enough to consider it an upside break. This is what technical analysis is all about, you use what works for you and we get different technicians looking at the same data but getting different answers. If we all got the same answer at the same time the markets would be nothing other than sudden sharp moves all the time as hoards of technicians are scrambling to get in or out at the same time. But I start to digress again.

What we see in the chart is what I would refer to as a one day fake-out and then back to the down side. Friday's close got us back into a new low for this latest move. That places the price below a negative sloping moving average line and the price momentum back into the negative territory. Momentum is now lower than its value during the January low and heading towards that October low. As for the volume indicator, that is below its trigger line and the line continues in its negative direction.

Last week, I moved to the + neutral level for the intermediate term. This week's action places me into the BEARISH camp.



We've had a couple of sharp sudden reversals since the April top. Maybe we do have a whole bunch of technicians looking at the same data, coming to the same conclusion and jumping in and out at the same time. At least it looks like some group of speculators are doing so.

As for the short term, well everything looks like more downside to come, at least that seems to be the direction of least resistance. Just how far down can we expect this trend to take us? My intermediate term P&F projection of $605 seems as good of a location as any. Getting there may not be directly but most likely in a couple of step moves, such as the one this past week. I'm not yet comfortable drawing a short term trend line on this chart so I must rely on the moving average information. With the price below a negative short term moving average line the trend can only be assumed to be downward. The short term momentum is back in its negative zone and pointing lower. It is still above its oversold level so there still is room for more downside. Going with the criteria of going with the trend one can only continue BEARISH on the short term.


As for what to expect over the next day or two, I will also go with the trend here. The Stochastic Oscillator is negative and below its trigger line. The price is below its very short term moving average line. The price is making a new reaction low. All is in place to continue lower, so that's the way I will go. The price action over the past two days has been quite volatile and has not left a good point for a reversal expectation. So, I will just go with a guesstimation and expect that should the price close above the $660 level both the short and immediate term directions have reversed.



It almost seems like yesterday that we last looked in on the AMEX Gold BUGS Index and here we are again. The Index continues to move within that wide upper and lower band shown on the chart. It's presently at the mid point of the band but at a point where one might imagine it suddenly plunging towards the lower support line. EXCEPT for the Friday action. Despite the sharp sell-off in gold the Index (as well as all the other major Indices) had a rebound during the day and closed on the up side. The Friday's action is what is referred to as a “hammer”. That is a small body on top of a long tail. I have shown several other hammers and “long lower shadows” on the chart. A long lower shadow may be described as a hammer but with a small “wick” at the top like on a CANDLE. These two candlestick patterns are bullish patterns but the big unknown is the expected duration of the projected rally. As you can see, some of these had significant rallies while others were somewhat shot lived. In any case a rally is expected from this level. One should be careful not to project this as an expected rally in gold itself. Follow the gold chart. The two, gold and gold Indices, do not necessarily move together.


Disaster, disaster. It was a bad week for the Precious Metals Indices. Only the FTSE Gold Mines AustralAsia Index closed with a good gain on the week. One wonders if this was not solely due to the strength of the Australian dollar (which gained 1.2% versus the US $). As far as North America Indices were concerned, disaster. The average decline in the major Indices was 5 %. The Composite Index declined by 4.0 % which reflects the slightly better performance of most of the Merv's Indices and the FTSE mentioned above (along with the US $).


The average decline in the universe of 160 stocks was 4.0%, the same as the Composite Index. Although better than the majors, that still does not make one feel any better. There were a full 135 stocks on the down side (84%) with only 20 on the up side (13%). What were the odds that you were one of those on the up side? When we sum up the individual ratings for the component stocks we are back into the bearish side. All three time periods had a summation rating that was a BEAR with the short term at 72%, the intermediate term at 71% and the long term at 62%. This is not the time for a cautious speculator to be in the gold or silver market. Only Gamblers need be in. Despite the sharp drop in gold and the Indices we still do not have a panic. Only one stock was in my over/under 30% weekly move category and that stock received a very nasty court decision against it during the week to precipitate the move.

As far as the chart indicators are concerned, that story is pretty clear here. On the intermediate term the Index is below a negative moving average line and the momentum is in its negative zone and heading lower. BEARISH on the intermediate term

On the long term the Index closed just a hair below its long term moving average line but the line is still pointing upward. Momentum is heading lower but still in the positive zone. I was going to call it bullish but decided that a NEUTRAL rating was more appropriate at this time. Next week should tell us if the long term goes negative or positive.


This is probably the only place that you will find information on the different sectors within the gold stocks. Not all stocks move together, although over a long period they all move in the same direction. The quality stocks, the second tier speculative stocks and the gambling type of speculative stocks may at times diverge quite noticeably.

As could be expected all three sectors lost ground during the week. Once more the losses were in inverse to their “quality”. The Qual-Gold lost 5.2%, the Spec-Gold lost 4.4% and the Gamb-Gold lost only 3.4%. Since their top in April the Qual-Gold has lost 11.5%, the Spec-Gold has lost 9.9% and the Gamb-Gold has lost 7.0%. If this down turn should continue I would expect that the gambling stocks could quite quickly catch up to the “quality” losses but for now the quality lead on the down side.

During the week the advancing versus declining issues were a complete wipe-out. 100% of the Qual stocks closed lower while 93% of the Spec and 87% of the Gamb stocks also closed lower.

Looking at the intermediate term indicators, the Gamb-Gold momentum is still in its positive zone but all other indicators for all three sectors are negative. This puts all three Indices in the BEARISH camp for the intermediate term

On the long term we have a variety of positives and negatives in the indicators resulting in the Gamb-Gold Index being BULLISH, the Spec-Gold Index being – NEUTRAL and the Qual-Gold Index being BEARISH.

Without going into details the summation of individual ratings have all moved further into the negative during the week. The three ratings for the Qual and Spec-Gold Indices are all greater than 80% BEARISH. The ratings for the three Gamb-Gold time periods are BEARISH but in the 60% range.


The actions of silver are very much like that of gold, however, despite a greater % loss on the week (it had a greater % gain last week) it has not moved into new low territory for this latest move as gold has done. Another couple of bad days and it too will be there.


The Qual-Silver Index closed the week 4.3% lower while the Spec-Silver Index closed 5.5% lower. This looks like a reverse to the gold performance where the Qual was the greater loser but in the Spec-Silver Index one stock alone closed almost 50% lower due to a court decision that went bad. That single stock loss added almost a full 2% points to the negative performance. Without this one stock the Spec-Silver performance would be closer to minus 3.5% and in line with the gold scenario of performances. Since their April tops the Qual-Silver Index has declined 10.2% while the Spec-Silver declined 8.6%.

Looking at the various indicators for the intermediate and long term we have both Indices with BEARISH ratings except for the Spec-Silver long term which is still at a BULLISH rating. As with the gold indices, the overall summation of ratings are all in the BULLISH camp, most with ratings greater than 60%.



Well, I'm calling it another week. Let's see what the next week brings us.

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central

Web: www.themarkettraders.com (http://www.themarkettraders.com/)
e-mail: merv@themarkettraders.com (merv@themarkettraders.com)

During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician ( CMT ) and tries to decipher what's going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada 's Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv's driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE .

To find out more about Merv's various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit www.themarkettraders.com (http://www.themarkettraders.com/) and click on Merv's Precious Metals Central . There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus other publications of interest to gold investors. While at the themarkettraders.com web site please take the time to check out the Energy Central site and the various Merv's Energy Tables for the most comprehensive survey of energy stocks on the internet. Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a Qualified Professional Market Technician.


10.06.2007, 23:06
Outlook for the week starting June 11th (week 24)

By falling through the key support 651.50$/oz (double bottom) - which had so far proved constructive -, gold has yet again sent out a signal of failure as it was not able to attain and maintain 670$/oz as a springboard to the resistance levels above 680$/oz, on the path to 700$ an ounce. The latter has been rejected three times over the last months.

While last weeks the charts seemed constructive - even leaving an impression of “too fast too soon” - the blow that gold sentiment endured in week 23 left it battered and in even worse shape than two weeks ago.
A better than expected outlook on the U.S. economic growth is in stark contrast to what has been calculated into the marketplace over the last months. In this light, the sudden reemergence of a possible rate hike [alongside higher rates elsewhere in the world] has rattled equity markets, underpinning the dollar and being uninspiring for no-interest yielding commodities compared to other asset classes.

Although doomsday scenarios are easy to find in times when the outlook is meager, they are believed unfounded. In contrast to the popular belief that the sky will someday unavoidably fall, the reality is that it generally remains where it is, up there. :)

The period of consolidation in gold may however extend, as heavy physical buying is largely absent during these times of the year. Charts for gold now indicate an oversold indicator, to which gold may react recovering during the week to come, as some bargain hunting may be expected.
Gold has however to regain ground above 672$/oz fairly quick to initiate a fourth attempt for key resistance levels. It is questionable whether the yellow metal has the stamina to do so just yet, as the bears seem in firm control of the market.

For now, the key 200DMA support level is eyed at 638.2$/oz. If bears are able to push prices below this level, it seems likely that prices may go lower, with a worst case scenario – not likely – bottoming out at 600$/oz.


mama mia
11.06.2007, 21:16
Asia's Golden Age

Doug Casey
The International Speculator (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607A)
Jun 11, 2007

I am often asked by subscribers to our International Speculator (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607A) why I'm so sure the economy of China is going to continue on a roll, in turn keeping demand high for commodities in general, and precious metals in particular.

Rather than going through the macro-economics, I tend to abbreviate by referencing China's troubled history, and pointing out that China's leadership, which today are communist only in rhetoric, are well aware that they are an anachronism. Which is to say that a serious slowdown in the economy, with its attendant mass unemployment, could quickly turn into a terminal event... politically and maybe even personally. So they'll do what they must to keep the economy humming along. And that is to continue to benefit from the lessons so clearly learned in Hong Kong... first and foremost, staying out of the way of the market.

Put another way, now that the capitalist genie - or, more correctly, 1.3 billion genies - is out of the bottle, there's no soft way of going back.

As David Galland points out in the article that follows, the best way to take advantage of China's explosive growth comes from getting positioned in gold (and for leverage, gold stocks (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607A))... the cultural default for wealth in Asia. As you'll read, the signs of China's new golden age are already starting to appear.

-Doug Casey

http://www.321gold.com/images/goldpig.jpg (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607A)Asia's Golden Age

More straws in the wind for gold... a wind coming out of the East.

On March 29 the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), the world's fourth-largest commodity futures exchange, announced the loosening of margins to allow greater daily price fluctuations for gold. The move broadens the range by 33% as of April 1.

But it was not only what they did but what they said that caught our attention. According to Bloomberg, Shigeharu Amari, the general manager of Tocom's public relations department, said that "Heightened demand for gold in China and India have led to major swings in bullion prices over the past six months, which is why we decided to make the change."

China's traditional cultural affection for gold, understandable given that country's troubled history, was suppressed by Mao and company for 52 years, until the liberalization of gold ownership in 2001.

Today, that affection for gold is being stoked even hotter by concerns over a falling dollar and a pig. Actually, the rumor of a pig. In the Chinese lunar calendar, 2007 is the "year of the red pig," purportedly a very auspicious year. Better yet, it is also widely rumored to be the "Year of the Golden Pig," which, according to fortunetellers, only comes around every 600 years.

The lunar calendar kicked off on February 18, 2007, but even before the starting gun, the pick-up in Chinese gold sales was apparent; in 2006, according to the China Gold Association, gold consumption in that country grew by 17%. Toss in a golden pig and things get a lot more interesting. Even though the country's annual gold production is forecast to reach 260 metric tonnes this year, it will fall about 100 tonnes short of meeting Chinese demand. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, China's only precious metals trade platform, noted a gold trading volume of nearly 130,000 kilograms in January, a rise of 72.83% over the same period last year.

For the other great contender, India, gold jewelry has historically played a crucial role--60% to 70% of all jewelry is sold during the wedding and festival season in October and November, and many Indian banks provide loans for purchasing gold jewelry. Even though higher prices have pushed gold jewelry sales down in 2006, most analysts now see gold in India taking on a larger role as an investment for the newly affluent looking to protect wealth (Indian inflation is now running at 6.5%), versus just as body décor and status.

Speaking of Indian investment, on February 15, the first Indian gold ETF launched, the Gold BeEs of Benchmark Mutual Fund. The second ETF launch, the UTI Gold Exchange Traded Fund, is already underway. Rajesh Bhojani, UTI Mutual Fund's president of marketing says about 30% of the gold market in India is investors-and we suspect the new gold ETFs are going to dramatically boost that percentage.

Hopping back to China, by now anyone with any interest in gold is aware of the rock-and-hard place dilemma caused by the 700 billion greenbacks now littering China's official reserves. In 2006 alone, the Chinese took about $3.4 billion in exchange rate losses ... chump change today, but a clear warning shot of far bigger losses to come.

Diversifying out of the U.S. dollar and into a far more diverse basket of assets, including tangibles such as gold, has become a very high priority in China. But yet, despite announcing last year that they were starting a new government investment management corporation, the primary purpose being to manage their towering reserves, the Chinese don't seem to be in a big hurry to diversify. Well, maybe not all is as it seems.

Chinese Checkers

Recently, the Chinese engaged in a bit of carefully orchestrated theater, the purpose of which was to reassure the world's financial community they were not going to rock the boat in an attempt to diversify out of their hundreds of billions of dollar reserves. The show kicked off with Wen Jiabao, China's premier, assuring the market in a press conference that China's new investment regime "would not have any impact on U.S. dollar-denominated assets."

The opening act was followed a few hours later by China's central bank when it pulled back the curtain on a report stating that it wouldn't be making "frequent, major adjustments to the structure of the reserves in response to market movements."

But, switching analogies, let's just suppose that the Chinese, rather than being poor chess players, were actually pretty good at the game... and the bright young team now being assembled to manage the diversification of China's massive reserves were actually intent on their task?

Might the Chinese go out of their way to reassure gullible markets that they weren't going to be unloading dollars, when they actually were... getting rid of as many greenbacks as possible before the broader markets caught on? It is certainly within the realm of possibility. In fact, if you look at it through the spectrum of a leadership for whom the "Big Lie" has been an official policy tool for better than half a century, it becomes downright likely.

That this may be the case is made all the more apparent by the recent news that China had invested $3.3 billion in Blackstone, the U.S. private equity firm. You can rest assured that their investment strategy is far more diverse than just investing in U.S. Treasury bills.

The global supply of gold is already under pressure. From rising investor interest, helped along with hugely popular new ETFs in the U.S. and London (among others) and from the institutions and hedge funds now beginning to recall that gold is a good portfolio asset. Throw onto the scale the rising demand out of a booming Asia and the very real possibility that the U.S. dollar has seen its best days, and you have all the pressure you need to see gold heading much, much higher from here.

How much higher? Impossible to say, but it is worth noting that, on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold would have to rise to $2,276 just to equal the previous $850 high.

How you play the unfolding gold market will depend on your psychology and temperament... with your choices ranging from straight bullion on the tame side, to the extreme leverage of futures on the wild. Around here at Casey Research, we focus on the middle path; higher-quality gold shares that, with some dedicated effort, can be well understood. And if they can be understood, then the worst of the risk can be eliminated, leaving mostly just the truly explosive upside.

Whatever approach you take, however, just make sure that you don't procrastinate to the point of missing the boat altogether.

The Golden Age is upon us.

David Galland

David Galland is the managing editor of Doug Casey's International Speculator newsletter, now in its 27th year, dedicated to bringing investors unbiased research on investments with the potential for 100% or better returns over the coming 12-month period.

To learn more about the International Speculator and a no-risk trial subscription offering you the opportunity to view all the International Speculator's current recommendations, click here (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607A) now.

Doug Casey

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mama mia
11.06.2007, 22:21
...nicht eben umwerfend :(

mama mia
12.06.2007, 08:31
Bond Yields and Gold Shares

Troy Schwensen
Jun 12, 2007

In recent weeks we have seen a dramatic rise in long term bond yields in the US. There is clear evidence that foreigners are moving away from US long term bonds and this has largely contributed to the recent increase in yields. The rise in the long term yields may also be suggesting heightened inflation concerns going forward. This coupled with disappointing GDP growth is signaling a possible stagflation. What does this mean for gold shares?

People that have read my work know that I am a big advocate of the XAU/gold ratio as an overall barometer of where the precious metals markets are placed at any given time. To demonstrate the effects of rising long term bond yields on the gold sector, I want to share with you a monthly chart that looks at the 20 year US Bond yield, the XAU/gold ratio, and the XAU. I have circled the three preceding rally stages of this bull market so that you can clearly see how the gold sector performs in the midst of rising long term bond yields. The green vertical lines signal the beginning of rallies in the XAU index and the red vertical lines indicate the end of each respective rally.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen061207/schwensen061207sm.gif (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen061207/schwensen061207.gif) This chart clearly demonstrates that periods of rising long term bond yields tend to coincide with strong moves in the precious metals sector. If we look to where we are placed as at the end of May '07, we can see that the signs are looking very good. We have a 20 year bond yield which has been trending higher since November 2006 (Top Section). Last month has seen the XAU/gold ratio break an intermediate term downward sloping trend line which has been in existence since the end of January 2006 (Middle section). The XAU/gold ratio is usually a pretty reliable leading indicator. The last piece of the puzzle is the XAU index itself (Bottom section). This needs to break 143-145 in order to complete this bullish picture. As I type this the gold price has fallen over US$14 an ounce in US trade on Friday but the XAU has actually gained ground with the XAU/gold ratio consequently rallying sharply. I continue to see this as bullish for the gold sector and can essentially see nothing different to what we have witnessed during the closing stages of previous consolidation periods.

Looking at a monthly chart you tend to gain a much better perspective on where things are placed in the overall scheme of things. There has been a spate of negative articles on the gold sector in the last 48 hours as one would expect given the present short term volatility. In looking at the above chart I think you would agree that we are probably in a much better position than most people realize. These days a lot can happen in the space of a month and it doesn't make much sense to get caught up in the short term day to day volatility. In saying that, I want to also state that charts like the one above are based on observation only and are by no means a guarantee that what has happened in the past will necessarily happen in the future. As the old Mark Twain saying goes "History never repeats but it does often rhyme." For anyone interested, I write a free monthly newsletter on the precious metals markets which you can sign up for at the website below. You can also access past issues of the newsletter including the recent issue via the Articles/Newsletter menu item.

Troy Schwensen CPA
The Global Speculator
(http://www.globalspeculator.com.au/)Australia - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwensen/schwensen061207.html

mama mia
12.06.2007, 11:50

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Gold Market Update

originally published June 9th, 2007

This Gold Market update makes grim reading - if you believe it that is. Gold had been weakening and rounding over since its late February high, and on Thursday and Friday it dropped sharply, breaking below its uptrend in force for nearly 2 years, from July 2005, for the 1st time, after deceptively rising away from it.

On the 2-year chart we can clearly see that we are at a critical juncture, for having broken below the trendline, gold is now only a little above its 200 and 300-day moving averages, which are themselves very close together. Throughout its bull market gold has always found support at or above its 300-day moving average, always turning up above or at this average, the only exception being one occasion in 2004 when it dropped a little below it.


It had been remarked on in past Gold Market updates that the entire formation from last year’s highs at around $730 was a potential Double Top in the making, and last week’s break below the long-term trendline has considerably increased the risk that this is the case. At this juncture it is worth noting that gold appears to be completing a Double Top against various other important currencies including the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, with the one against the Canadian dollar being a particularly fine example. Only against the Japanese Yen has gold made any significant progress since last year. If this is happening, and it is, then what is the principal reason for it - fortunately we don’t have to look far to find the answer.

After earlier looking like it was turning lower again, the US dollar made sharp gains late last week, which is why gold got clobbered, but the bigger picture revealed by the US dollar index charts really piles on the agony for gold bugs - for the dollar appears to be turning up, BIG TIME.


On the 2-year US dollar index chart we can see that, taking into account the late April - early May lows, the dollar has marked out a bullish Falling Wedge pattern, taking the late 2005 highs as the starting point for drawing our trendlines, and the chances are high that this downtrend terminated with the late April - early May lows which were on strong support that dates way back to the early 90’s. Around the time of these lows there was a lot of talk going around about the dire consequences of their failure, but the chances of them failing was and is slim, no matter how bad the fundamentals may look, because of their historic significance. The appearance of this Falling Wedge right above a major support zone is a very bullish sign for the dollar, and the more strongly the lines of the wedge converge, the more bullish it is, and here they are converging quite strongly.

http://www.clivemaund.com/charts/usdlongterm090607.gif If we project the upper trendline of the wedge backwards in time on the long-term dollar chart we can see that it arrives at exactly at the early 2002 high, the kind of synchronicity you often see in Technical Analysis, and which will give an upside breakout above this line added significance. On this long-term chart we can further see how the Falling Wedge of recent months comprises that right side of a large Double Bottom formation above major support that mirrors the Double top completing in gold. If these formations complete as they look like they are going to then clearly it will be wise to take appropriate action before the event rather than after. Some older readers might remember Joseph Granville’s old refrain “Sell all stocks” which, while crude and simplistic, was often the most effective course of action because when a sector or the market as a whole falls heavily, the good frequently gets tossed overboard with the bad. Over the past year we have generally avoided investing in the larger PM stocks, which has made sense as the sector overall has gone nowhere, as can be seen by glancing at the HUI or XAU index charts, which are both looking toppy. We have instead concentrated on smaller issues and have made good gains in many stocks, often in a very short period of time. We are currently long a wide range of these issues and it is thought wise at this time to go through portfolios and prune them, locking in profits in overbought issues and otherwise selling stocks that look vulnerable to an accelerating sector downturn, which might be aggravated by a broad market retreat that is looking increasingly likely. While smaller stocks can move almost completely independently of the sector indices as a result of favorable drilling results etc, the stocks of many good companies often suffer severe losses due to attrition - continuous light selling in the absence of buying interest - in adverse market conditions, as we saw following the sector peak last year. We will be reviewing a wide range of individual stocks recommended on the site over the past 6 months or so in a Market Notebook update shortly. A “hammer candlestick” appeared on the Precious Metals stock indices on Friday, signaling a probable short-term bottom - so we are likely to see some respite and a bounce early next week which should afford a window of opportunity to adjust positions.

Zum Original-Beitrag (showthread.php3?p=1046856#post1046856)

12.06.2007, 12:18
"I guess that someone at the trading desk is going to shoot someone at the research desk" (Regarding JP Morgan and $1000/oz)



mama mia
12.06.2007, 21:48
Gold futures close with a loss of nearly $6 an ounce :bad

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B2f5f8cdc-5424-4cae-a120-188b30b59bde%7D&siteid=mktw) & Polya Lesova (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B2f5f8cdc-5424-4cae-a120-188b30b59bde%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET Jun 12, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Tuesday, ending the session with a loss of almost $6 an ounce, with the market returning much of the prior session's gains as crude-oil prices declined and the U.S. dollar touched a two-month high against the euro.
"An onslaught of bearishness, a small countertrend rally in the U.S. dollar and seasonal weakness, are all combining to pressure gold toward very key support in the $635-$640 area," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.
"It appears the smartest move at the moment is to sell a close below $635 or buy a close above $675," he said in e-mailed comments.
Gold for August delivery declined $5.90 to close at $653.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In the backdrop, the dollar rose to a two-month high against the euro, boosted by higher Treasury yields as investors await economic reports for more clues about the U.S. economy and interest rates. See Currencies. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/dollar-2-month-high-vs-euro/story.aspx?guid=%7B265299A7%2DE5AA%2D466B%2DAF95%2D0384283FB9C1%7D)
Weakness in oil prices also contributed to gold's weakness, as concerns over high energy prices eased for the time being after recent strength, with analysts predicting another climb in U.S. gasoline supply.
But the International Energy Agency upped its world oil product demand forecast, citing new data out of Nigeria, Indonesia and other countries, and said that recent oil price strength has been on the back of both tightness in the U.S. gasoline market and tightness in OPEC supplies. See Futures Movers. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/oil-prices-ease-analysts-bet/story.aspx?guid=%7B515B987D%2DFC43%2D42F7%2DA194%2D840A4BA22614%7D)
For gold, "buying from the physical sector is expected to keep the metal underpinned in the coming sessions," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a research note. Additional support is pegged at $648/$644 and the 200-day moving average at $638.50, he said.
"Rallies back toward $660 are expected to meet further scaled up selling from funds/investor sources," Moore said.
On Monday, gold closed up $8.70 at $659.0 an ounce, as physical demand, technical buying and rising crude-oil prices boosted the precious metal. Read more. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gold-rallies-physical-demand-technical/story.aspx?guid=%7BE7A3DDA0%2DA593%2D4128%2DA3DB%2D08D04DB7342E%7D)
And "tight trading ranges are likely to be maintained as traders are reported to be cautious ahead of U.S. PPI and CPI data later this week," said analysts at Action Economics, in a research note. See the Economic Calendar. (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp)
Copper leads losses
Other metals prices also fell, with July copper leading the percentage losses, down 2.1%, or 6.9 cents, to finish at $3.287 a pound.
"News out of China is once again casting a pall over the copper complex in particular," said Edward Meir, analyst at Man Financial, in a research note.
Chinese copper imports fell by 28% in May compared with the previous month.
"The extent of the import decrease is perhaps what is unsettling participants, who apparently expect to see nothing but unbridled growth coming from Chinese trade figures," Meir said.
"Also proving worrisome has been the accompanying macro news that Chinese authorities --similar to those here at the Fed -- are grappling with stubbornly high inflation rates," he said.
China's annualized inflation rose a higher-than-expected 3.4% in May from the same month a year ago, increasing chances of further monetary tightening by the central bank in weeks ahead.
The inflation figure, as measured by the consumer price index, was boosted by higher food prices and is higher than the 3% increase recorded in April from the same month a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Surveys of economists estimated May's CPI at 3.3%. Read more. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/china-inflation-jumps-34-may/story.aspx?guid=%7BC03436D2%2D3E08%2D4C69%2D8A3E%2DF7DBE0443070%7D)
Rounding out the metals action, July silver declined 18.5 cents to close at $13.09 an ounce, July platinum fell $1.60 to close at $1,296.40 an ounce and September palladium shed 15 cents to end at $372.85 an ounce.
On the supply side, gold warehouse inventories fell by 200 troy ounces to stand at 7.63 million troy ounces as of late Monday, while copper supplies were unchanged at 26,113 short tons, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell by 24,427 troy ounces to stand at 130.4 million troy ounces.
Indexes tracking the metals sector were little changed, torn between weakness in metals prices and a slight bounce in the broader U.S. stock market.

mama mia
12.06.2007, 21:50
"I guess that someone at the trading desk is going to shoot someone at the research desk" (Regarding JP Morgan and $1000/oz)



Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=1046882#post1046882)
:schwitz hallo Hoka - ist bei mir ohne Ton :rolleyes liegt's an meiner Kiste :confused

12.06.2007, 22:08
Hallo mama, klappt bei mir einwandfrei mit Windows Media Player, neuste Version. Lohnt sich anzuschauen.

mama mia
12.06.2007, 22:31
Hallo Hoka :) tja dann ist es mein Mac :rolleyes habe da manchmal Mühe mit Windows "Produkten" :( mal schaun ob ich sonst wo gucken kann :)

mama mia
12.06.2007, 22:39

Original von Eldorado
Le Metropole Members,

Served at The Man Ray Table:


"it is my understanding that the recent sell off was
in part due to liquidation of long term US securities
by some central banks. I believe some of that money
went into short term T-Bills. This makes eminent sense
as the bond market finished a 22 year run up in 2003
and has entered since then into a secular bear market.
The fundamentals for the bond market have been and will
continue to be extremely negative and I would expect
this bear market to last for many years.......


1. The silver fundamentals remain superb and I won't go beyond that as others cover this in great detail.

2. It is my analysis that we have been correcting the move from 11.99 of 1/8/07 to 14.77 of 2/26 for the past few months. This correction has taken a familiar pattern with the last leg down of this correction having started at 13.87 on 6/6. Projected targets and support were between 12.62 to 12.925 to end the correction.

3. So far, we have reached a recent low of 12.89 on 6/8 and therefore the correction from 14.77 could very well have ended then. If not, you know the parameters as to where I think it will end.

4. Assuming that the correction is over from 14.77, there is no guarantee that this will be the final correction in the bigger picture as it could still be only a part of the overall correction, however, my preferred scenario is that it is the end of the correction from 14.77. I hope that I am not confusing you.

Anyone not already long silver, should consider an initial entry right here and now.

5. I like the fact that the weekly momentums are close to levels where previous rallies have begun and the 200DMA is at 12.96 today.

GOLD: CASH GOLD: 648.40; AUGUST GOLD: 651.40

1. I won't discuss the fundamentals that remain superb and have been so well covered by Bill Murphy.

2. My technical analysis always has two parts: a top down analysis that pinpoint potential targets for end of corrections ( this is extremely important ) and a bottom up analysis that covers the usual Fib retracements with their new adjustments, previous wave pattern supports, 50 and 200DMA, rgold as defined by Adam Hamilton, momentum indicators, etc.. With the increasing complexity of the markets due to their global participation, it is more than ever essential to have this knowledge in order to succeed. This is most likely the province of the professional futures trader/investor as the leverage employed in his investments require this information in order to succeed on a long term basis.

3. Let me give you an example of the complexity of the markets. It has been widely publicized that the sentiment indicators for the precious metals in the past two weeks are abysmal and from a contrarian viewpoint would signal a buy signal but this would have been premature if you acted solely on this indicator; furthermore, I suspect that the fielding of these indicators is US centric and doesn't cover the rest of the investing world. Does anyone cover the sentiment for India which, after all, is the most important area of demand for gold in the world? Are they as bearish on gold as the sentiment numbers being reported in the US? How about China and its increasing demand for gold - are they bearish too? :D

Now, here comes Jim Rogers on Bloomberg yesterday saying that he is bearish gold because " everyone is long "; well, is he thinking of the Asian investors where he resides or is he thinking more globally and, if so, how does he research the facts to arrive at this conclusion? Frankly, in this global investment environment, one must be careful to the importance attached to any one indicator - yes, I incorporate into my decision making the level of sentiment but it is hardly the deciding factor as I hope I have proved above.

4. Here is my analysis basis cash gold :

- from the 694.60 high of 4/23, we fell to a recent low of 643.80 on 6/8. So far today, we have fallen back to 645.35.

- I have had targets and great support between 631 to 644 for some time and I believe this will hold the correction from the 694.60 highs.

- As we have already reached 643.80, it is quite possible that the correction is finished; if not, you have my targets on any further downside.

- Since I believe the dollar is finishing its bear market correction within the parameters mentioned above, this confirms my independent analysis for gold.


1. Roughly three weeks ago, Sec. Paulson was being interviewed and asked about the prevalent weakness of the dollar. The question was: " Was he worried about further weakness about the dollar and the potential for an uncontrolled fall ". He answered very calmly and almost with a shrug of the shoulders that this was far from being one of his top concerns and that there were more important issues that he had to deal with ( I am paraphrasing ). I immediately stood up and wondered what he knew that was not factored in the markets as we were at that time very close to taking out the multi year intraday low of 80.39 of Dec. 31, 2004. I decided then and there to monitor very closely my long Australian, Canadian, and Euro positions and have acted accordingly since then. I sold my Cando longs a bit early but with a very nice profit and remain modestly long the Australian dollar ( my preferred currency for almost a year ) and Euro. Well, we all know what has happened in the last week as the cash dollar index has spiked up to a three month high in sympathy with the long rates spiking up out of a resistance zone that had capped the market yields for a very long time. It is my analysis that the short term yields are much more important to the dollar than the long term yields and therefore, this spike up in the dollar is a trap.

What foreigner in his right mind would buy a US ten or thirty year bond that is depreciating in value far more than the meager rise in interest that he would receive?

2. Having made that observation, I am always cognizant that the markets can do almost anything, even that which seems totally illogical. It is possibly because some traders had overextended their short dollar position to a dangerous level and must now cover at any price in order to stay alive; perhaps this is done in conjunction with the black box traders whose algorithms are reversing their short dollar positions to the long side.

3. The best that I can say at this time is that the cash dollar index has potential targets and significant resistance between 83.05 to 83.70 which is slightly above the levels that we are trading at now. IMO, anyone not already long the currencies mentioned above should look to initiate a long position, especially in the Australian dollar.

4. In the bigger picture, although there is never a 100% certainty in the markets, it is my analysis that the dollar has much further to go on the downside.

Choose your long currencies wisely as they are not all created equal. ;)

13.06.2007, 14:57
India's rising imports promise 'good year' for gold

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's rising gold imports promise a "good year" after volatility and all-time highs damped buying enthusiasm last year, a senior official of a trade body said on Wednesday.

India imported 211 tonnes of gold in January-March, a 50 percent jump over the same period last year, data from WGC showed. In 2006, gold imports were at 715.5 tonnes, down less than a percent over the previous year.


Die Inder scheinen weiterhin an Gold interessiert. :cool

13.06.2007, 16:38
Bullishes von Blanchard

Credit Suisse just released a research note calling for $700 gold this year. They also believe that silver has the potential to outperform gold in the next year. This follows on Citigroup, JP Morgan, UBS, Scotia Moccatta, and other bullion bankers notes out into the market calling for much higher prices into the second half of the year. Since we're in fairly good company expecting higher prices, the question becomes when to enter the market, when prices are low or when they've started moving back up? If the last five years of this markets have shown anything, it's that buying on pullbacks or adding to positions during periods of market weakness is always rewarded in the long term.


und Rat von der Credit Suisse, wem Gold zu langweilig sei, der soll Silber beimischen.


mama mia
13.06.2007, 19:00
Rising Interest Rates Are Excellent For Gold
Part 1
Mark J. Lundeen
12 June 2007 The entrenched financial establishment seldom passes an opportunity to cast their gloom upon the gold market.

``As interest rates go higher and higher, it makes the purchase of any commodities, which never pay interest or have yield, a poor judgment,'' - Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, a money-management company in Evanston, Illinois. 07 June 2007.

Mr. Kaplan could not possibly be more wrong.
What he based this opinion upon is a mystery to me. There is good reason to suspect that he has never spent any time actually studying the history of the gold market. The multi-decade-long relationship between bond yields and gold is very clear: bull markets in gold are rising interest rate environments. Gold investors historically have prospered when interest rates rise. History also tells us that the time to sell gold and buy bonds is when interest rates are declining.

Dissecting Mr. Kaplan's comments I find three hypotheses which can be tested using historical market data:

1) Increases in interest rates make debt more attractive and gold less desirable. This would make the value of gold, like bond prices inversely related to movements of AAA debt yield.

2) Debt yields dollars for income, gold collects dust. Mr Kaplan believes that generating income is the prime consideration for conservative investment funds. He sees inflation risk to principal a non-factor in the current regulated financial market place.

3) Interest rate volatility drives the gold market. This implies that changes in yields are actions; while changes in the gold market are reactions to interest rates.

In Part 1, of this article I will address the first two points. In Part 2, I will write about the third.

Below I have plotted gold with the US Treasury long bond yield going back to 1962. Let us examine what are the actual relationships between gold and high grade bond yields. We can test the above 3 hypotheses using the data below.

1) Increases in interest rates make debt more attractive and gold less desirable. This would make the value of gold, like bond prices inversely related to movements of AAA debt yield.

From 1962 to 1999 (37 years) this is a false statement. For these thirty seven years there was a clear and direct relationship, if not a proportional relationship between US Treasury long bond yields and the price of gold. Rising gold = rising bond yields; falling gold = falling bond yields. At times a significant time lag between the two exists, but the relationship is clearly on display in the above chart.

Note that gold was "fixed" at the official US Government price of $35 an oz in the early to late 1960s. But also realize that this was the period of the London Gold Pool (LGP) whose sole purpose was to prevent gold from rising above $35 an ounce. If the market price of gold was stable at $35 there would have been no need for the LGP. It is reasonable to assume that if no official government intervention in the gold market was present, and had gold been allowed to find its own price unimpeded, the gold plot in the above chart would have continuously tracked interest rates from 1962 to 1980.

The period from 1999 to 2007 (8 years) are the only years of the forty five years plotted that justify Mr. Kaplan's point that gold does best with falling bond yields. Using only 17% of the period from 1962 to 2007 he assumes that gold has no where to go but down. My comments on this will be found in Part 2 of this article.

Below is a chart for the discontinued Dow Jones 10 Utility Bond Average series (DJUBA / December 1947 to April 2002). These were high grade investment quality bonds that money managers many decades ago sold to widows and orphans. When it comes to corporate bonds, utility bonds are the best in good and bad economies as they pay out their coupons from a safe and secure source of income. This is excellent data to examine bond prices under rising and falling interest rates environments as both plots; price and yield, are from the 10 utility bonds themselves.

When you compare the chart above with the chart below, it is undeniable that rising interest rate environments punished bond holders while rewarding gold investors from 1962 to 1981. It works both ways as falling interest rates from 1981 to 1999 punished gold investors and rewarded bond holders.

The DJUBA contained bonds of the highest quality whose only fault was that their principal and coupon were dollar based. I don't fault Long Island Power and Light for that. But bonds are bonds and these high quality bonds fell 45% from 1945 to 1981 due to the rising interest rate environment they found themselves in. It is noted that the DJUBA returned to it previous levels in 1993 and they paid without fail, dollars (taxable) with their coupons for the entire period. However when one considers the effects that inflation had on those dollars over the years, you can understand why bonds were called "certificates of confiscation" twenty seven years ago.

In September of 1950, the DJ 10 Utility Bond Average cost 105.6. It took forty three years for these bonds to return to their 1950 highs in September of 1993. But the 30 year old World War Two veteran who bought similar bonds in 1950, upon the advice of his investment advisor and held them until he became a 73 year old World War Two veteran lost over 80% of his original principal's purchasing power due to inflation. I based this calculation upon CPI. The low taxable coupon payments of around 3% from these bonds could never make good this loss. I believe that the current low bond yields paid to bond investor today is creating a similar situation for the 2007 bond holders due to the soon to be undeniable ravages of impending future inflation.

Look at the above chart. There are five items plotted, three of them are not investments but rather cost of living items. Only gold (post December 1974) and the DJUBA were investment vehicles that people bought with expectations of gaining future wealth with the purchase. The DJUBA is the blue line at the bottom of the chart. Even after the huge 1980 to 2002 bull market in bonds, high quality AAA rated bonds did not protect the 1950 seekers of conservative investment from the ravages of inflation. This was not the case with gold, look at the chart. It is a fact that where the bond bull market of 1980 to 2002 never rose up to CPI, the gold bear market of 1980 to 2002 only fell down to CPI. After the 1980 to 2002 bear market where gold fell 70% from its 1980 highs it still protected its owners from the losses bond owners suffered from. Amazing!

As far as Mr. Kaplan's second hypotheses on bond yields and gold:

2) Debt yields dollars for income, gold collects dust. The prime consideration for conservative investment funds is to yield income. He sees inflation risk to principal a non-factor in the current regulated financial market place.

I can only refer you once again to the above chart.

End Part One
Part 2: Action and Reaction. Do interest rates lead gold prices or do gold prices lead interest rates? Look at the first chart in my article. Gold is at near all time highs while bonds are only yielding rates not seen since gold was at $35. One has to wonder if something is afoot in the financial markets. Is gold blasting off half cocked on a journey to nowhere while bonds are enjoying the abundant blessings of structured finance? Maybe; and then maybe not. I'll give you my nickel's worth on this subject in part two.

Mark J. Lundeen

...na dann hoffen wir wieder mal ;)

mama mia
13.06.2007, 22:48
:schwitz ;)

14.06.2007, 15:39
Schweizer Nationalbank stellt weitere 250 Tonnen Gold zum Verkauf

14.06 14:22

Bei der Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) stehen weitere Goldverkäufe an. Bis Ende September 2009 sollen 250 Tonnen Gold mit einem Wert von rund 6,5 Mrd. Franken veräussert werden. Mit dem Erlös werden die Devisenreserven aufgestockt.

Der Gesamtbestand der Währungsreserven bleibe aber unverändert, betonte SNB-Direktoriumsmitglied Thomas Jordan vor den Medien. Nach Abschluss der Verkäufe wird die Nationalbank über einen Goldbestand von rund 1040 Tonnen Gold verfügen.

Der Grund für den Goldverkauf liegt laut Jordan im markanten Anstieg des Goldpreises: Seit Mitte 2005 sei der Anteil des Goldes an den Währungsreserven dadurch von 33 auf 42 Prozent angestiegen. Für den Fall eines Absinkens des Goldpreises schloss Jordan allerdings auch Goldzukäufe nicht aus.

Man habe zudem mit den Goldverkäufen letztes Jahr auch viel mehr verdient als auf den Devisenreserven, ergänzte SNB-Präsident Jean-Pierre Roth. Die Gewinnablieferungen habe man dagegen mit Devisenverkäufen finanzieren müssen.

Die Goldverkäufe erfolgen im Rahmen des zweiten Goldabkommens vom März 2004, in dem die Zentralbanken des Euro-Systems mit der Schwedischen Reichsbank und der SNB vereinbarten, ihre Goldverkäufe über einen Zeitraum von fünf Jahren (ab 27. September 2004) zu begrenzen.

Das Abkommen legt fest, dass die jährlichen Verkäufe aller Unterzeichner 500 Tonnen nicht übersteigen und das gesamte Verkaufsvolumen in diesem Zeitraum nicht mehr als 2500 Tonnen betragen.


Da die Rendite von Gold zu hoch ist schichten sie in andere Assetklassen um?


14.06.2007, 16:10
Announced sales over the next 28 months of the CBGA II by France, The Netherlands, Swiss, Sweden and Austria total 620 tonnes. There are 1,220 tonnes of allotted sales that can take place during that time period. We will likely see periods when more sales hit the market than in other time periods, causing temporary price weakness, but over the long haul, ECB banks will be well short of their CBGA II allotment.

Supply, or rather, lack thereof, will be the key for this market to continue heading higher as we move forward. It's always important to keep an eye on the dollar, inflation, interest rate moves, etc. but over the last five years, it has been the contraction in supply via less mine production, increased dehedging and lower central bank sales that have led to prices increasing. Let's not forget that the largest mining country is creeping closer and closer to heading offline….



mama mia
14.06.2007, 19:38
Gold, Silver Rise as Oil Costs Spur Demand for Inflation Hedge
By Pham-Duy Nguyen

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver prices climbed in New York on speculation higher energy costs will boost demand for precious metals as hedges against inflation.

Gold sometimes moves in tandem with crude oil, which climbed above $67 a barrel after a government report showed U.S. refineries cut operating rates and Iran said it will continue developing nuclear energy. Some investors buy gold to hedge against accelerating consumer prices. Before today, gold had climbed 2.3 percent this year, while oil gained 8.5 percent.

``The metals are looking to the energy market for direction,'' said Tom Hartmann, a commodity broker at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``We're seeing a boost in crude and gasoline prices, and those are supportive factors for gold and silver.''

Gold futures for August delivery rose $2.10, or 0.3 percent, to $654.80 an ounce at 11:11 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached $658.20 earlier.

Silver futures for July delivery gained 12 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $13.18 an ounce. Before today, the metal had gained 1 percent this year.

Oil gained as much as 1.6 percent to $67.30 a barrel. The price has climbed 3.6 percent this week.

``A close above $67 should spur some technical buying for gold,'' Hartmann said.

Gold futures reached a record $873 an ounce in January 1980 after Iran cut petroleum supplies, doubling the cost of oil in a year and sparking a surge in the U.S. inflation rate. Iran is the Middle East's second-largest oil producer.

Dollar, Euro

Gold also rallied on speculation the dollar will weaken against the euro. Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar, which was little changed against the euro after climbing 1.7 percent since June 5. Gold has lost 3.1 percent since then.

``There is still a possibility the dollar will weaken by the third and fourth quarters,'' said Nick Ruggiero, trader at Eagle Futures Inc. in New York. ``Gold has been mainly currency- driven. Any breaks under $650, you're going to see some buying coming in.''

Gold's drop to a two-month low has made the metal more attractive, Hartmann of Altavest said. Gold touched $647 yesterday, the lowest since March 16.

``You could buy into gold and not risk a lot at this point,'' Hartmann said.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: June 14, 2007 11:13 EDT - ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=awUD6s2bXNyc&refer=commodity_futures

mama mia
14.06.2007, 19:42
Der Grund für den Goldverkauf liegt laut Jordan im markanten Anstieg des Goldpreises: Seit Mitte 2005 sei der Anteil des Goldes an den Währungsreserven dadurch von 33 auf 42 Prozent angestiegen. Für den Fall eines Absinkens des Goldpreises schloss Jordan allerdings auch Goldzukäufe nicht aus.

Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=1047698#post1047698)
.....hmmmmm - SNB ein Trader :schwitz:o:rolleyes;):D

14.06.2007, 22:42
3.4 Gold
Gemäss Art. 99 Abs. 3 der Bundesverfassung muss die SNB einen Teil ihrer
Währungsreserven in Gold halten. Sie hält ihr Gold physisch in der Form von
Barren oder Münzen. Die Goldbestände werden im In- und im Ausland aufbewahrt.
Teile des Goldbestandes werden mit einer Laufzeit von maximal zwölf Monaten
auf ungedeckter und maximal fünf Jahren auf gedeckter Basis ausgeliehen.
Bei Goldleihen muss die Gegenpartei mindestens über ein Rating von
„A2“ bei Moody’s und „A“ bei Standard & Poor’s verfügen. Bei gedeckten Leihgeschäften
akzeptiert die SNB als Sicherheit SNB-repofähige Effekten, wie sie
in den „Richtlinien der Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) über das geldpolitische
Instrumentarium“ definiert werden


Vielleicht verkaufen sie Bestände, die sie nicht mehr hätten einbringen können, auf denen sie aber bei steigendem Goldpreis weiterhin Buchgewinne ausgewiesen hätten, von denen Sie wiederum einen grossen Teil real an die Kantone hätten müssen ausschütten.


mama mia
14.06.2007, 23:07
...bin gespannt wie das morgen aussieht :schwitz:rolleyes

14.06.2007, 23:26
The Mogambo Guru u.a. auch zu den Zentralbanken. Etwas lang, daher hier schon mal seine Konklusion.

Mogambo sez: Gold, silver (http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/RTA/ERTAH505/) and oil. If you ain't buyin', you ain't even tryin', because there has never been a bigger investment lead-pipe cinch than any of these, and to pass them up says that there is something very, very wrong with you.


mama mia
15.06.2007, 13:12
The Mogambo Guru u.a. auch zu den Zentralbanken. Etwas lang, daher hier schon mal seine Konklusion.

Mogambo sez: Gold, silver (http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/RTA/ERTAH505/) and oil. If you ain't buyin', you ain't even tryin', because there has never been a bigger investment lead-pipe cinch than any of these, and to pass them up says that there is something very, very wrong with you.


Zum Original-Beitrag (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?p=1047866#post1047866)
...etwas lang ;) das sind die meisten "meiner" postings - aber ich hab schon oft einen Link angeklickt und ---> nicht mehr aktuel - daher setze ich eben alles rein - soll ja so etwas wie die story zum jetzigen "Goldrausch" sein - sollte der in die Hosen gehen :schwitz na ja dann ist es eben "Geschichte" :D gibt schlimmeres :o;)

mama mia
15.06.2007, 13:13
Ye Got Yer Good News, and Ye Got Yer Bad News

-- Posted Thursday, 14 June 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1181857867.php&title=Ye%20Got%20Yer%20Good%20News,%20and%20Ye%20Got%20Yer%20Bad%20News&bodytext=%20The%20bad%20news%20is%20that%20some%20of%20you%20were%20influenced%20by%20the%20%E2%80%98gold%20bears%E2%80%99%20who%20are%20forever%20looking%20at%20the%20%E2%80%98half-full%E2%80%99%20glass%20and%20calling%20it%20%E2%80%98half-empty%E2%80%99.%C2%A0%20You%20either%20sold%20during%20the%20past%20few%20days,%20or%20you%20allowed%20these%20bears%20to%20rob%20you%20of%20some%20good%20sound%20sleep%21%C2%A0%20%20%C2%A0%20Will%20these%20gold%20bears%20ever%20learn%20this%20simple%20trading%20rule:%C2%A0...&topic=business_finance)

The bad news is that some of you were influenced by the ‘gold bears’ who are forever looking at the ‘half-full’ glass and calling it ‘half-empty’. You either sold during the past few days, or you allowed these bears to rob you of some good sound sleep!

Will these gold bears ever learn this simple trading rule: WHEN THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE IS RISING, EVERY DIP TOWARDS, OR EVEN BELOW IT, IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY! Or how about this: “He/she who buys the dips and rides the waves usually comes out a WINNER!”

The good news is that the fundamentals for gold are as sound as ever! The World Gold Council report dated June 7/2007 AD shows world gold demand is running 31% above last year! China and India are increasing their gold purchases, with India having bought 211 tonnes during Q1/07, double what they bought during Q1/06! Meanwhile mine production is declining. If it were not for central bank sales, gold would be selling at double today’s price! And these bankers can only sell it once. Then its gone.

There was more BAD NEWS this morning, and gold initially dropped 3.00; the news release that Switzerland is going to sell 250 tonnes of gold during the next 2 years. What a pity that even the Swiss money managers feel compelled to sell their treasure, supposedly to pay off debt. The fact that gold only dropped 3.00 is GOOD NEWS! The increasing demand from India alone, projecting their quarterly increase out over the next two years, will more than absorb this ‘gold give-away’.


Featured is the weekly gold chart. The channel is well defined, and the green arrow points to an upside reversal, or climax. When an upside reversal occurs near a support line, price usually carries on for a month or more. The previous reversal (purple arrow) preceded 6 weeks of rising prices.


Featured is the SLV electronic silver unit. The channel is well defined, the 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA, (both of which are rising), and the progression of higher lows is ongoing. The RSI and MACD (short blue dashed lines), support the upward bounce.


Featured is the chart that compares the XAU mining stocks index to the gold price. Experienced traders know that one of the gauges to determine if gold is going to rise or fall is to see which is stronger: gold or the gold mining stocks. During a correction, mining stocks fall faster, and during the ‘up phase’ stocks rise faster, caused by leverage to the gold price. Since mid-March this index has been turning up, in a move that is supported by the RSI and MACD indicators (blue dashed lines).


Featured is the US dollar daily bar chart. The green arrows are targets that have either been reached, or are close to being reached. The negative effect that the dollar has had on the metals for the past 5 weeks is most likely behind us for a while.


Featured is one of the most exciting charts in my arsenal. It is a combination of an inverted ‘heads and shoulders’ formation, along with an ARAT, (Advancing Right Angled Triangle). The ongoing attempt to break out at the horizontal resistance line, is the fifth attempt, and it is the nature of an ARAT to offer less resistance at each attempt, as the energy to withstand the upward thrust is diminished with every attempt. All we need is two closes above 67.00, and we will be looking at a 75.00 target. This has serious ‘price inflationary’ implications, and will be bullish for the Precious Metals, and it could happen any day now!


mama mia
15.06.2007, 15:18
Gold bonds coming soon :eek

Updated: 2007-06-15 16:44 The Shanghai Gold Exchange is working together with gold producers, securities brokerage houses and banks in preparation for the launch of gold bonds, the Securities Times reported yesterday.

Gold bonds are issued by gold mining firms and guaranteed by a certain amount of gold they produce within a certain period of time in the future. The interest rate of gold bonds is made up of a basic rate and a floating one. The latter is linked with the gold price of the date of maturity. The maturation of the bonds can be three years, five years or 10 years.

In recent discussions at a conference of Shanghai Gold Exchange members, the exchange expressed hopes that gold mining corporations like Zhongjin Gold Co and Shandong Zhaojin Gold Co can work with brokers and banks in developing gold bond products.

Special coverage:
Markets Watch (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-06/15/markets_move.html)

Related readings:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/image_lt/tebieguanzhu_1.gif Gold Exchange is to enroll foreign banks (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-06/11/content_891517.htm)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/image_lt/tebieguanzhu_1.gif China to become world's No.2 gold producer (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-06/08/content_890386.htm)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/image_lt/tebieguanzhu_1.gif Gold exchange considers derivatives trading (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-06/07/content_889497.htm)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/image_lt/tebieguanzhu_1.gif Gold glitters as stocks lose luster (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-06/06/content_888081.htm)

Sources say last year, ICBC made contact with executives of Zhongjin Gold Co about the bond issue, and both showed great interest. It is expected that Zhongjin may become the first to issue gold bonds.

Meanwhile, Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co recently became the first securities company approved as a Shanghai Gold Exchange member. The exchange plans to take in more securities companies in an effort to build an underwriting system for gold bonds issuance.

Preparations for gold bond issuance began last year, when Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co, joined by institutions like Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Financial Service Office put forward a gold coupon issuance plan. In December of 2006, Shenyin Wanguo formally applied to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2006-11/14/content_732834.htm) to conduct gold bond business. The application was approved recently.

According to industry insiders, although details concerning the bond issuer's qualification and issuing quota are subject to the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2006-11/16/content_734828.htm), there are no policy-related barriers for gold bond issuance.

"As the world's third-largest gold producer, China has a huge potential in gold production. The increasing financial needs of gold producers promise a bright future for gold bonds," said Song Yuqin, vice manager of the Shanghai Gold Exchange.


mama mia
15.06.2007, 16:01
Casey Files:
Your Cash is Trash
and So Are Most of Your Investments

Doug Casey
The International Speculator (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607B)
Jun 15, 2007

Almost everyone, probably including yourself, gets held back by inertia at one time or another. It can happen with anything, including investments.

Inertia weighs on an investor, trapping him in a state of paralysis and freezing his portfolio, almost forcing him to hold on to whatever he already owns - for no better reason than that he already owns it. He hopes that every one of his old shoes will go up, even if the reason for the purchase is long forgotten or the environment in which the investment might have prospered has vanished. People who substitute hope for cold-blooded analysis almost inevitably wind up losing money.

So, for the sake of argument, let's look at where you might best put your money for the rest of the year 2007. To keep things simple, let's assume you start by liquidating all the cats and dogs populating your portfolio, so that you have just a pile of cash. No, let's not phrase it that way... because then you're going to start wondering which of the securities you own really are cats and dogs. You might get bogged down. And then inertia will creep back in, and you'll throw your hands up and do nothing. So let's assume you sell everything, in true going-out-of-business style.

Now, what's the smartest place to put that money? Let's look at the alternatives.

Bonds? A disastrous sucker bet. Bonds, at the moment, are a triple threat to your capital. First, you have a huge risk with interest rates, which are still near historic lows; as they go up, the market value of your bonds drops proportionately. Second, no matter which of the fiat currencies you choose, you have a big currency risk; while the US dollar is on the fast train to zero, virtually every other currency in the world is being inflated along with it and is heading toward eventual oblivion. Third, you have credit risk; General Motors isn't the only large company whose bonds may go into default.

Stocks? The general market is yielding less than 2% in dividends, less than 1/3 of what you typically see at major market bottoms. And selling for more than 18 times earnings-more than 25% higher than its norm. Worse, for those who might be buyers, the bull market of the century started in 1982 and, in inflation-adjusted terms, ended in 2000. You might not want to hear it, but stocks are almost certainly early into a bear market that could last another 5 or 10 years. By all traditional measures, chances are much better that stocks will drop 50% from here than gain 50%.

Cash? You could always just stay in T-bills. But they currently yield only 5%, before taxes. And inflation (notwithstanding the highly imaginary official figures) is probably running around 6% and likely to head higher.

Real Estate? At the present, at least in the U.S., this is probably the worst choice of all. The speculative boom crested last year, and the market, burdened by an immense amount of debt and overleveraged speculation, is likely to head down for years to come. Of course, there are places in the world, two of our favorites being Argentina and Uruguay, where there isn't much of a mortgage market, so the properties aren't overleveraged and values are still available. But unless you are looking to pick up cheap land in undeveloped, exotic countries that have avoided the credit-driven bubble, real estate should be last on your list of investments.

Mutual funds? Any mutual fund you're likely to pick is just a way of buying one of the investments we've already dismissed. And paying all those fees and expenses that come with a mutual fund just makes the bet that much worse.

So What Should You Do?

Since 2001, we've been in a natural resources bull market. If you were one of the few who positioned yourself in gold, silver or pretty much any of the metals or energy commodities - either directly or through the shares in smaller resource companies, which is the preferred vehicle we have been recommending to subscribers of our International Speculator (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607B) -- you've already made the easy money.

At least to us, before the bull market kicked off, the opportunity in the sector seemed obvious, with many resource companies selling for less than the cash they had in the bank. Few people even knew the sector existed, and most of them thought it was a dead duck after the 20-year-long bear market it had suffered since 1980.

The easy-money stage of the resource bull ended in 2003, at which time we entered the second stage, where the market climbs a "wall of worry." In even the most formidable of bull markets, this phase comes with inevitable corrections and scary downdrafts. Per its moniker, with each short-term setback in price, investors who were shrewd enough to get positioned early on into the long bull market fret that they might be wrong. Some are shaken out, but the smart ones buy even more on the dips.

But now, in my opinion, we are about to enter the third, and most important, stage of the classic bull market: the mania stage. This will resemble the tail-end of the Internet stock bull market. It's hard to predict exactly what catalyst will set it off, but it will very likely be rising expectations for inflation. Fear will drive the foreigners who hold about $6 trillion to sell the greenback, and they'll be joined by savvy Americans. Some will buy other paper currencies, like the euro or the yen. But those units are just backed by U.S. dollars themselves, so they really aren't much in the way of an escape pod. Inevitably, much of the money now sloshing through the world will try to get into gold. While no one can say with certainty, I expect the metal to hit $1,000 within the next 12 months and go much, much higher by the end of the decade.

Is this an unreasonable prediction? No.

Most casual investors mistakenly look at gold and think it's been a leader in this bull market when, in actual fact, it's a laggard compared to the industrial metals that have been bidden up to extraordinary highs by soaring demand from China, India and other emerging markets.

To give you just a few examples, in the last five years, copper has been up 330%, nickel 560%, uranium 1,150%, zinc up 460%, molybdenum up 450%, and even lowly lead, the most basic of base metals, is up 425%. By comparison, gold is up only 100%.

That will change, however, because although gold has many and growing industrial uses, its main use is as money. It will dawn on the herd that the world is drowning in a flood of increasingly worthless paper currency, and they're going to stampede toward the high ground of gold.

The metal isn't just going through the roof. It's going to the moon.

Gold Good, Gold Shares Better

When gold really starts to move, the mining exploration stocks are going to howl. That's because gold exploration stocks are not just highly leveraged plays on the price of gold. They are capable of providing you with triple-digit gains based on exploration success alone.

Case in point, the last mining share boom from 1993-96, which occurred at the tail-end of gold's 20-year bear market and carried hundreds of stocks with it, was driven entirely by a handful of discoveries. Since gold prices turned up, starting in 2001, a lot of money has been spent on exploration, and that work will inevitably lead to major discoveries and market excitement. Several of the companies we follow in our International Speculator (http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=30&ppref=GLD031ED0607B) are already drilling into what look to be monster deposits. Confirmation of a major discovery could well ignite a mania in the market.

While most other investments, such as bonds, industrial stocks, real estate and broad mutual funds are likely to be serious losers over the coming years, the bull market in gold and gold exploration stocks has still barely entered the public's consciousness. Although the easy money has been made, the big money is waiting to be picked up.

Nothing in the investing world is ever a sure thing, but today the exploration stocks look to be as close as it gets. As for the inevitable corrections during this "wall of worry" phase, remember that the time to be timid is when everyone else is bold, and the time to be bold is when everyone else is timid. Sell-offs in the gold and gold mining sector are, to our way of thinking, gift-wrapped opportunities to buy.
Doug Casey is chairman of Casey Research, LLC., one of the nation's oldest and most respected organizations dedicated to providing independent investors with unbiased research on opportunities to earn extraordinary profits by being just ahead of the crowd. BIG GOLD (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=7&ppref=GLD007ED0607A), new from Casey Research, provides subscribers with actionable research on the unfolding gold bull market and on profiting from the world's best gold producers, near-producers, gold mutual funds, ETFs and more. You can try it without risk...

...To find out how, click here (http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=7&ppref=GLD007ED0607A).

Doug Casey



mama mia
15.06.2007, 16:06

Re: @elli: HUI-Zählung - Laui

[ Börse & Wirtschaft: Elliott-Wellen-Forum (http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/index.htm) ] Geschrieben von ---Elli--- am 18. Mai 2007 13:39:44:

Als Antwort auf: @elli: HUI-Zählung (http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/381062.htm) geschrieben von Laui am 18. Mai 2007 07:31:25:

>Also eines geht mir bei dir so langsam richtig auf den Keks:
>Wenn dir eine Zählung durch den Strich geht, dann findest du kein gutes Haar daran.
>Find ich schade.

Ach was. Mit einem "Strich" hat das nichts zu tun, sondern ausschließlich damit, wie plausibel und wahrscheinlich eine Zählung/Prognose ist. Und der Elliott-Experte Bergold (hast du schon mal vorher was von ihm zu Elliott gehört?) zählt da zwar nichts Unmögliches, aber etwas reichlich zwanghaft konstruiert Bullisches, was auf den Goldseiten nun mal gern gesehen wird.

Ich zeige dir mal, was ich am 21.4. im Abo hatte und was unverändert gilt.
Wie @Ecki1 schon sagte: hier fehlt noch ein C nach unten.


Der Pfeil zeigt zwar auf etwa 700 $, aber ich schrieb dazu: " Bei ca. 695 $ sollte Schluss sein." 694 $ wurden es. Und zurzeit sind es 657 $, womit der "Strich" (s. o., meinest du den?) klar durchbrochen ist. Beim Silber noch viel deutlicher. Und das findest du schade?

Falls es wirklich bis 550 $ oder tiefer gehen sollte (ideal wären ca. 500 $ [a = c]), dann gilt dort: Volle Kanne long. Vielleicht auch schon früher, je nach Muster.

15.06.2007, 22:11
Dan Norcini's Chart mit Kommentar


Und Jim Sinclair's secret meeting

Posted On: Friday, June 15, 2007, 11:56:00 AM EST
Jim's "Top Secret" Meeting With Three Hedge Fund Managers
Author: Dan Norcini, Monty Guild, Dan Duval, Lars Lindgren, David Duval

Dear CIGAs,

We feel duty bound to reveal to you via this candid picture that Jim has had a private meeting in Singapore with three hedge fund managers. They can be seen below operating their black box “Bull in a China Shop” automatic computer based trading devices even during the meeting.

Trader Dan, Monty, Lars, Dan and David

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/54726_singapore2.jpg (http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp#dispimg.asp?imgsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Esortweb%2Ecom%2Fcwsimages%2Finventory%2F54726%5Fsingapore2%2Ejpg)

mama mia
15.06.2007, 22:13
Myra Saefong's Commodities Corner
Gold's $700 'time window' shifts

By Myra P. Saefong (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+112+105+99+97+99+104+101&y=Myra+P.+Saefong&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bf6bb4803-4106-4dc4-b816-62670529f8c5%7D&siteid=nbk), MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:25 PM ET Jun 15, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold's moves have been tormenting traders even more than usual lately.
For the optimists, $700 is just a stone's throw away. To the pessimists, however, it would require quite a powerful throwing arm.
The August contract for gold futures climbed past $700 nearly nine weeks ago, and, while that prompted renewed calls among some observers for $800 and beyond, gold has failed at every attempt since to return to that level.
And a week ago the price touched a three-month low under $649 an ounce.
"Right now, the time window has shifted for the price to move past the $700 barrier," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com. "I would not feel comfortable betting against gold at these levels, although it does appear the rally will take a summer vacation."
'Right now, the time window has shifted for the price to move past the $700 barrier [and it appears] the rally will take a summer vacation.'
— Peter Spina, GoldSeek.com
Gold sales from central banks, a seasonal decline in demand, strengthening in the U.S. dollar and a rise in Treasury yields are some of the factors that have come into play, putting pressure on gold prices, analysts said.
"The seasonal influences alongside a bout of heavy gold selling from the Spanish central bank capped gold at a high point in the annual pattern of demand for physical gold," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com, a sister site to GoldSeek.com.
"Investment demand retreated in the face of this situation -- so stunting the attack on $700," Phillips said.
And the metal's market has suffered amid "dramatic upside moves in U.S. Treasury yields," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial.
"With bond rates pushing through resistance on the long end of the yield curve, gold has seen strong liquidation across the board from futures traders, funds and investors in GLD shares," he said, referring to the StreetTracks Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/gld)streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF
News (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?symb=GLD), chart (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=GLD), profile (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?symb=GLD), more (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/gld)
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" height="1" width="1">GLD (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=GLD) ) . See related story. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/treasurys-drop-benchmark-yield-ends/story.aspx?guid=%7B06680CA1%2D1668%2D41DA%2DBD4D%2DAC71238003A0%7D)
Add that to the fact that Fed officials have been suggesting of late that there will not be a rate cut later in the summer, "and you have a fairly negative tone to gold and the metals overall," Oxman said.
There has been a liquidation recently of more than 180 metric tons of gold sales by central banks -- likely in the past three months, said Oxman.
Gold's momentum about eight weeks ago was "crushed by a huge wave of central bank gold sales," said Spina. "Had this event not occurred, we may well be trading over $700, but the event has caused a delay in the next run higher."
Besides, "the volume of central-bank selling cannot be maintained and will soon subside, leading to the next stage of this secular gold bull market," said Mark O'Byrne, a director at Gold & Silver Investment Ltd. in Dublin.
Meanwhile, slower growth of ETFs in the first quarter of 2007 as compared with a year ago resulted in a decline of 26% in gold-investment demand, in tonnage terms, though jewelry demand was up 17%, according to a World Gold Council report released last month.
The StreetTracks Gold Trust ETF "dumped" 31 metric tons of privately owned gold into the market in May, according Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"May was a critical month. It showed that the ETF is not a one-way street," he said. Before that, it had been a "one-way accumulation load."
"Investment demand has to be up. It's been the single most important driver [for gold] since 2001," he said. But, overall, "demand has been lackluster thus far this year."
And, he said, supply is growing, with the $22 billion that has been "plowed into exploration" over the past five years now starting to pay off.
More than 50 operations will come into being between 2007 and 2012, with a combined annual output of about 450 metric tons, he said. "That, in a 3,300 metric-ton total market supply, is 13% incremental supply."
When you look at the bigger picture, "the man in the street has not witnessed Armageddon over the past year, stock markets did not implode, the dollar did not collapse unto itself, the invasion of Iran did not materialize, ... $100 per barrel oil did not come about ... [and] the U.S. economy shows conflicting signs for investors not to flock into one corner (cash) or another (equities, gold etc.)," according to Nadler.
Given gold's moves lately, some would also make an argument accusing blaming market manipulation. See Peter Brimelow. (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/gold-moves-fuel-cartel-theories/story.aspx?guid=%7B8135A85E%2D0D00%2D4F71%2DB420%2DE6404C9B9F70%7D)
And, of course, there's what can be dubbed as investment competition.
"Global rates are going up around the world, and gold now has to compete with a higher-interest-bearing instrument," said Amaury Conti, an equity trader at San Antonio-based Austin, Calvert & Flavin Inc.
"Gold has had to compete with other assets -- including real estate, luxury items, art -- from the new wealth created around the world," and there's what Conti refers to as the "old story" of "in vogue" investments such as ethanol, grains and alternative energy.
"The bull market is still intact," but "we look at 2007 as a year of pause -- of regrouping," said Nadler. So, "you do not hear too many brave pundits venturing forecasts of prices higher than $730 at this time.
Hidden meanings
Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, raised the specter that "gold's recent troubles are rooted in a peculiar form of market myopia."
Investors view the rising global interest rates as a negative for gold, he said. And that seems logical -- at first.
"But it is characteristic of a short-term, narrow focus that typifies today's markets and ignores long-term trends," Lundin said.
'Two primary factors are at work: rising economic growth internationally ... along with dwindling demand for the U.S. dollar. Sounds like a perfect recipe for higher gold prices'
— Brien Lundin, Gold Newsletter
In Europe, China and other nations, central banks are raising rates to combat inflationary pressure which accompany robust economic growth, he said.
But "rate hikes will not kill off economic growth overseas ... and, therefore, one of the major drivers of the bull market will remain intact," he said.
Also, rising yields in the U.S. are not a sign of dollar strength, Lundin said. Instead, "Treasury yields are rising precisely because investors, institutions and even nations are increasingly diversifying out of the dollar."
So "two primary factors are at work: rising economic growth internationally, particularly in China, along with dwindling demand for the U.S. dollar," he said. "Sounds like a perfect recipe for higher gold prices."
The dollar, too, cannot rise in the long term, and gold can only go up in the long term, said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
"Nowhere around the world are investors buying dollars as part of a buy-and-hold strategy," he said. "No bearish scenario exists for gold."
All told, "no single factor has a more winning percentage than the inverse relationship of gold to the U.S. dollar," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, in a recent newsletter. "About 85% of the time, and certainly over a period of years, they move in opposite directions."
And "a currency is only as good as the country behind it," he said. "Socially, economically, politically ... America has never been in worse shape."
Still, experts don't seem as enthusiastic about mentioning the $700-and-above price range for gold as they were earlier this year.
Kitco cut its average gold price forecast for the year down to $655 an ounce, from an earlier estimate of $690.
Nadler emphasized that the Kitco forecast doesn't rule out a visit by gold to the $700 mark for a brief time, even before the year's end, but he also said "we do not see any $800 high any time soon."
'We believe gold will surpass its non-inflation adjusted high of over $800 per ounce by the end of 2007, and its inflation-adjusted high of some $2,400 per ounce in the next 10 years.'
— Mark OByrne, Gold & Silver Investments Ltd.
Schmidt expects the metal to set a new cycle high well above $700 before the fall arrives.
Gold & Silver Investments' O'Byrne had a more bold prediction. "We believe gold will surpass its noninflation-adjusted high of over $800 per ounce by the end of 2007, and its inflation-adjusted high of some $2,400 per ounce in the next 10 years."
On a technical level, support for August gold has to hold at the March low of $647.50 and it needs to noncommercial buying re-emerge before it can head back toward the high end of its trading range, said Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at Omaha-based DTN. The contract tested resistance at $706 back in April.
But if support doesn't hold, and long-liquidation selling increases, the market could fall back to the next level of support near $625.60, he warned.
Keeping all those price predictions in mind, GoldForecaster.com's Phillips may have summed it up best: "There is scope for upward jolts to demand for gold which must be factored in, in these summer months, so be prepared for volatility and surprises." http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif
Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

mama mia
15.06.2007, 22:45

Part 1: Gold Vanishing into Private Hoards

by Antal E. Fekete,
Gold Standard University
May 30, 2007

Introduction. While doing research in the Library of the University of Chicago in the early 1980’s I came across the unfinished manuscript of a book with the title: The Dollar: An Agonizing Reappraisal. It was written in the year 1965. It has never been published (although it has received private circulation). The author, monetary scientist Melchior Palyi, a native of Hungary, died before he could finish it. Monetary events started to spin out of control in 1965, culminating in the default on the international gold obligations of the United States of America six years later in August,1971. Palyi had correctly prophesied that event which occurred after he died. He had also correctly diagnosed the malady and prescribed the remedy that could have arrested the train of events that would in all likelihood cause a crash further down the road. As part of the offering of Gold Standard University, I shall publish the manuscript serially in the form of excerpts, along with with my commentary, concentrating on parts that are still timely.

That the title is more timely than ever is a fact that nobody can deny.

Biographical remark. Melchior Palyi (1892-1970), the internationally recognized educator, author, and economist was born and got his early education in Hungary. He was Professor Emeritus of the University of Berlin and also taught at the Universities of Munich, Göttingen, and Kiel. He was the chief economist of the Deutsche Bank of Berlin, the largest on the European continent at the time, and was adviser to the Reichsbank, the central bank of Germany, from 1931 to 1933. He was then guest of the Midland Bank, Ltd., in London, and visiting lecturer of the University College of Oxford.

Palyi moved to the United States in 1933. He was visiting professor and research economist at the University of Chicago, Northwestern University, the University of Wisconsin, and the University of Southern California. He was involved in broad literary and lecture platform activities. The bibliography of his literary output is extensive; let it suffice to mention the titles of some of his books: Compulsory Medical Care and the Welfare State (1949; he is credited with the saying „where the Welfare State is on the march, the Police State is not far behind”), Managed Money at the Crossroads (1958), A Lesson in French: Inflation (1959), and his swan song: The Twilight of Gold (1970). Change of font to bold face type indicates quotations from the manuscript.

The Gold Paradox

Nineteen sixty five will be remembered in the modern history of money. For the first time, private buyers absorbed almost the entire supply of new gold coming on the market. „Newly mined gold plus Russian sales amounted to approximately $1.9 billion”, reported the First National City Bank of New York, but „only some $250 million worth is believed to have reached officially recorded monetary stocks” (all quantities are stated in gold dollars, reckoned at the gold price of $35 per Troy oz.) And none whatsoever accrued to U.S. monetary reserves ─ which has actually declined by a near record amount of $1.66 billion.

What is happening to all that disappearing gold? Why does it refuse to go to official gold reserves? Why, in particular, is the U.S. Treasury on the losing side year after year, with no sign of terminating this process? And, above all, what does it say about the stability of the dollar, the economic health of the nation, and the future prospects of the Western World?

The central problem is the actual maintenance of the parity. The U.S. Treasury is under obligation, in effect, to assure that on the world’s markets 35 dollar means the same value as one ounce of gold. Thereby the value of the dollar is anchored to the solid rock of a fixed quantity of gold. As long as this external convertibility of the dollar appears to be guaranteed, world public opinion will not question the equivalence between the currency unit and a set amount of the yellow metal. That is why to the world at large the dollar is „as good as gold”. In the words of President J. F. Kennedy, speaking in September, 1963, „We are determined… to maintain the firm relationship of gold and the dollar at the present price of $35 an ounce, and I can assure you we will do just that.”

Gold Vanishing Into Private Hoards

1950 is the watershed year marking the start of a new era in the relationship between gold and paper money. In the twelve-year period ending in 1964 the Western World’s gold mines and Russian gold sales (about $1 billion in 1963-64) combined, produced $16 billion worth of gold, but official gold reserves have grown only by $7 billion. More than 50 percent, on average, of the new gold bypassed official reserves and vanished in private hoards. On the top of that the prime reserve currency, the U.S. dollar (that is backing many other currencies) had lost close to one-half of its gold reserves. By the end of 1965 our reserves have declined from a peak of $24.7 billion in September, 1949, to less than $14 billion ─ of which $835 million is a sight deposit of the International Monetary Fund. Not only has the richest country failed to attract any part of the new gold supply; it has actually lost more than $10 billion’s worth. If continued, this process would herald the breakdown of the entire gold-based monetary setup of the West, with incalculable consequences.

To have some idea of the order of magnitude of gold vanishing into private hoards during the period from 1950 through 2007, let us recall some facts and figures.

Output from Western mines plus Russian gold sales before the collapse of the Soviet Union (approximate quantities in gold dollars at $35/Troy oz.):
1950-51: $ 2,000m; 1952-65: $ 21,000m; 1966-68: $ 3,400m; 1969-2006: $ 77,500m.

Absorption into private hoards from mine output, gold pool sales plus US/IMF/central bank gold auctions (approximate quantities in gold dollars at $35/Troy oz.):
1950-51: $ 100m; 1952-65: $ 9,000m; 1966-68: $ 3,200m; 1969-2006: $ 80,000m.

The crescendo of gold disappearing in private hoards is crying out for an explanation. Gold absorption into private hoards for the 20-year period from 1950 through 1970 was of the same order of magnitude as the entire U.S. gold reserve at its peak in 1949, the largest gold concentration ever in history: just short of $ 25 billion. It was followed by the greatest dissipation of gold ever. This private absorption of gold is unprecedented, both as to its magnitude and its speed. The total amount of gold absorption for the entire 56-year period 1950-2007 was approximately $ 90,000m, an amount greater than all the gold produced in history before 1950.

Clearly, something ominous is happening to the dollar. Vanishing gold is trying to tell us something, that is, if we have ears for hearing. More remarkable still than these extraordinary quantities of wealth shifted out of paper assets into phyisical gold, worth about $ 1,8 trillion at today’s gold price, a process that is still continuing at an accelerating rate, is the fact that mainstream economists and their paymasters in government are not asking questions about, nor offering explanations for this incredible movement of wealth going into hiding. The apparent lack of interest about the identity and intentions of the owners of this wealth on the part of the economists’ profession is in itself a worthy subject to investigate.

Put it differently, paper wealth in the world is presently being destroyed at the rate greater than that of the annual gold production, approx. $2.8 billion gold dollars (equivalent to about $55 billion paper dollars at today’s gold price), but this earthquake-style destruction is allowed to go unnoticed by academia and the financial media. They are satisfied that paper wealth so destroyed will not be missed. The U.S. Federal Reserve banks are dutifully replacing these real assets, and more, by printing paper assets. „See no evil, hear no evil.” „What you can’t see won’t hurt you.” Nobody is pointing out that this newly created paper wealth facing, as it is, an equivalent amount of wealth in solid gold, is quite hollow. Nobody asks whether the large quantities of gold vanishing into private hoards could cause a crisis when its size reaches and exceeds critical mass. Be that as it may, thinking people ought to realize that, the official ’propaganda of silence’ notwithstanding, the disappearance of such inordinate quantities of gold cannot help but, in the fullness of time, have an untoward effect on their lives, and on their children’s lives.

Fifty percent of all the gold in existence has been produced since 1960. The same fifty percent has been withdrawn from the public domain during the same period of time and disappeared in private hoards. There is no way to account for this gold. We do not know the location, the identity of owners, nor their intentions what they wanted to do with it. This is a sea change portending a still greater sea change to come. This is a situation comparable to the disappearance of the gold and silver coinage of ancient Rome portending the fall of the Empire. For this sea change the public is totally unprepared. It is left in complete ignorance, due to the deep silence of the media and academia.

”The Most Uneconomical Medium of Circulation”

At this point the reader may raise some pertinent questions. Why is gold essential for a healthy monetary system? Why should anyone want to hoard it? Is it not a useless gadget, good only for jewelry and dentistry? Why base the currency on such an odd commodity, or on any commodity for that matter? We have eliminated gold from hand-to-hand circulation; why not finish the job and dethrone the „barbarous relic”, as Lord Keynes called it?

Indeed, we seem to be on the way to wipe all traces of gold out of the monetary system. The first (1915) Annual Report of the New York Federal Reserve bank argued that „gold is the most uneconomical medium of hand-to-hand circulation since, when held in bank reserves, it will support a volume of credit equal to four or five times its own volume”. (That was an unintended admission of the inflationary bias indigenous to American money-management.)

Twenty years later, in 1934, we proceeded to ’demonetize’ gold, forcibly taking it out of circulation. This was followed, in 1945, by the reduction of the Federal Reserve banks’ gold reserve requirements to 25 percent of total liabilities. By 1965 we had abolished gold as a mandatory backing of the deposit liabilities of the Federal Reserve banks altogether.

Rationale of Gold

The first thing to know about gold is that there is no alternative to it. Gold is the one and only commodity that has no marketing problem. There is no sales resistance and no competition to overcome. A gold reserve is as important for the nation as a bank account for the firm or individual. You keep part of your funds in idle bank balances in order to be ’liquid’ ─ to be able to pay your bills. Gold is the ultimate and unquestioned world-wide ’liquidity’. It is accepted in payment of claims. Hence it is imperative that a country should possess gold, or to have access to gold, in order to take care of an unfavorable balance of foreign payments that arises when it has to purchase abroad more goods, services, and assets than other countries buy from it. This has been the chronic case for the United States in the post-World War II era, resulting in gold losses and in a huge volume of short-term debt to foreigners.

The gold reserve inspires confidence in the currency at home and abroad. „Even the most prejudiced managed-money advocate cannot deny that no form of paper or arrangement can ever command the confidence and trust inspired by gold, a store of value in itself” (The Statist, London, December 25, 1964.)

In addition to the monetary there is also a non-monetary demand for gold. The very promising metallurgical and medical applications of gold are still in their infancy. Its use in the arts is ancient history. In any case, the non-monetary demand provides a substantial part of the value of the yellow metal, and is the root-cause of its use as the Number One store of value. This function loses its importance when the national currency is safely anchored in gold. But it is promptly revived and expanded whenever convertibility comes under a cloud.

Paper money can be multiplied sine fine, virtually at no cost. Gold is available only in limited quantity and at a substantial cost of production. This fact is not a negative but a highly positive factor for determining gold’s monetary fitness. Gold derives further strength from another circumstance. The annual new production is a very small part of the accumulated total supply, hardly ever more than 3 percent at any given time. In 1965, for example, the $1.9 billion new gold reaching the market was less than 3 percent of the total supply of over $60 billionaccumulated in the central banks of the West and in private hoards. (The latter has been ’guesstimated’ at $17 billion.)

No commodity known to man combines as gold does the qualities of durability, unlimited marketability, portability, homogeneity, steady demand, stability of supply growth, fitness for being stored, low cost of storage per unit of value and, last but not least, independence from authoritarian manipulation of the total supply. This is why totalitarians (and their dedicated or subconscious fellow-travellers) are violently opposed to its private ownership that provides the citizen with a large measure of freedom. By having gold he can hedge against arbitrary policies of the Omnipotent State, or even slip out from its clutches.

Explanation of the Gold Paradox

The paradox of a chronic flight into gold, and out of the U.S. dollar which is tied to gold, is the outstanding symptom of the present critical situation. The pat explanation for the paradox is to blame the recurrent runs on the ’speculators’. This is a characteristic throwback to medieval economics, confusing symptom and cause. In truth, responsibility belongs to the authorities who create opportunities to induce speculators to go short on the dollar or to buy gold on margin. A far more important factor may be the maneuvering of the cautious who do the exact opposite of ’speculating’: they are trying to protect their assets and incomes by hedging against a possible devaluation…

Another pat explanation relegates the problem to the fringes of the global economy. In areas where political, legal, or monetary insecurity prevails, there is a compulsive instinct to seek security in hoarding gold. No country can beat India in this regard. The hidden gold of her population has been estimated by India’s Reserve Bank at some $6.4 billion (!), built up over a period of 100 years or longer.

But the less developed economies are altogether too poor to absorb each year the huge amount of vanishing gold. And why would they not hoard convertible currencies instead of gold, as they did in the past? Actually, an appreciable fraction of foreign aid dollars has been used by the recipients to acquire gold ─ another vote of no-confidence for the dollar, as well as for the respective local governments.

Even more significant is the fact that leading European central banks display definite signs of impatience with the dollar. Given the $13.7 billion holdings of dollar claims by monetary authorities, not counting some $6 billion held by international organizations, the danger this implies for the American gold reserve and the maintenance of the dollar’s convertibility can scarcely be overestimated.

It is more than a problem in monetary management. Our very prosperity, and the integrity of our economic system is at stake!

Explanation, Forty Years Later

In forthcoming parts of this series I shall take the analysis of the gold paradox beyond the point to which Palyi has taken it. I shall ask the question who the hoarders are and what motivates their gold hoarding. My thesis is that gold hoarding is a win-win strategy, the only valid one as such. (All other win-win strategies are Ponzi schemes.) However, there is a strict condition, one that disqualifies most would-be beneficiaries. The gold hoarder must be prepared to, and mentally capable of, using gold exclusively as his numeraire in calculating asset values as well as pofit and loss. He must understand that profit/loss accounting in terms of the paper dollar is tantamount to trying to measure length with an elastic measuring-tape. The obvious result is a cover-up for the deficiency of length, akin to the cover-up for the deficiency of wealth and to making losses parade as profit. Watch for the day when people wake up from their delusion.

Admittedly, very few people are able to adapt their thinking to the demand that the dollar be discarded as numeraire of wealth. The dollar is far too deeply ingrained in their psyche for that. As a result, very few people see the fragility of wealth under the regime of irredeemable currency. Those who can are not tempted by the spectacular profit opportunities in stock, bond, and real estate speculation. They know full well that yielding to the temptation would be tantamount to be seated in the middle of a crowded auditorium just before the fire alarm was ready to sound. Their chance to reach the fire exit alive would be practically nil.

Apparently, more and more people do accept gold as a valid numeraire replacing the dollar, since they have seen the writing on the wall warning about the dollar: „Mene tekel, upharsin” (you have been weighed and found wanting).

We can understand the little guy’s agonizing watch on a hesitant gold price to go up. He is conditioned by a host of cheerleaders of get-rich-quick schemes. However, the more enlightened hoarders of gold (whom in another paper I have called ’bulls in bear skin’) ─ admittedly a tiny minority ─ are in no hurry to see the dollar to bite the dust, or the price of gold to go to outer space. They do have the philosopher’s stone, gold, well in hand. More importantly they also have the matching wisdom, without which gold is just another dead asset. They know that the most productive use of gold is not to sit on it waiting for the miracle of a gold price in five digits to spring upon the world. They want to derive maximum advantage from their possession of the metal. In particular, they know how to make gold beget gold, something even Aristotle believed was impossible. Most importantly, they need not release control over their gold while deriving an income from it. Mark that, in all other cases, deriving income from an asset involves putting the latter to risk. The fact that gold income is an exception to that rule, in that it can be harvested risk free even while the gold is locked up in one’s own vault, is due to the idiosyncrasies of irredeemable currency. It is the paradox that, while the irredeemable dollar is gold’s sworn enemy, it lends gold the unbeatable advantage whereby it can generate an income risk free.

The ’enlightened hoarders of gold’ prefer the security of a gold income, that they can enjoy in relative peace, to the insecurity of an exploding gold price. They understand that they could not enjoy their exploding wealth once the gold price escaped from the earth’s gravitation, because blood would flow in the streets where the ’have-nots’ gave battle to the ’haves’ over the only bone of contention that mattered: gold.

The common perception is that commercial traders are selling gold short naked in order to drive down the gold price where they can cover their short positions at a huge profit. In this view the bears are sucking the blood of the bulls. This, of course, is a myth. It is a simplistic explanation for a complex puzzle, the gold paradox. In reality commercial traders are mere agents. If they trade for their own account, the amounts are paltry in comparison. Commercial traders act on behalf of principals who do hold the gold and are set upon deriving an income from their holdings. It is understandable that these principals wish to stay anonymous and, in an unexpected reversal of Andersen’s tale The Emperor’s Clothes, they foster the misperception that they are naked!

Historical Precedence: Vanishing Gold in Ancient Rome

The last time in history when huge quantities of gold were going into hiding occured during the twilight of the Roman Empire. It was an ominous portent of bad tidings. People were withdrawing gold coins from circulation. They declined to spend them hoping that saner and safer times would come. As a rule people do not spend their gold coins unless they see that they will be able to get them back on the same terms. As saner and safer times did never come, these ancient hoards were forgotten and remained buried in the ground throughout the Dark Ages. Present day archeologists still keep finding them fifteen hundred years later.

The owners of those ancient gold hoards were helpless. They could not enjoy their gold as they were unable to retard the coming of the evil day when the Roman monetary unit would become worthless, and the Empire would fall. In this respect latter day gold hoarders appear to be better off. They seem to be able to retard the fall of the dollar towards worthlessness and, in the meantime, they could enjoy a gold income in relative security. Of course, this will not ward off the ultimate collapse of the American Empire, although it may materially postpone it. The fortunes of empires tend to be predicated by the fortunes of their currencies.

The present episode of gold vanishing into private hoards is no less ominous than the previous one that was followed by the collapse of the Roman Empire, and the lights going out in the civilized world.

As this „agonizing reappraisal” shows, the days of the dollar are numbered. Whether it be a large number or small, the coming Dark Age looms large on the horizon.

© 2007 Antal E. Fekete
Gold Standard University
Editorial Archive (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/main.html) | Email (aefekete@iisam.com)

Correction. It was incorrectly stated in my article The Golden Thorn in the Flesh, Part Two (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2007/0517.html), that a translation of Melchior Palyi’s 1968 paper Gold Standard and Economic Order from German to English was made by Dr. T. Megalli. In fact, the article appeared in English in the original edition of the Festschrift Geld, Kapital, und Kredit (Stuttgart, 1968) honoring Heinrich Rittershausen on the occasion of his 70-th birthday.

Announcement. Session Two of Gold Standard University will take place between August 17 and 29, 2007, at Martineum Academy in Szombathely, Hungary. It will feature a one-week course (13 lectures) entitled Gold and Interest, as well as a blue-ribbon panel discussion entitled The Last Contango ─ an Early Warning Sign of the Collapse of the International Monetary System. The second week is reserved for sight-seeing and recreation.Enrolment is limited; first come first served. For more information please contact: GSUL@t-online.hu


mama mia
17.06.2007, 11:33
http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/MPAnne.jpg A Unique Era

By: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden, The Aden Forecast

-- Posted Friday, 15 June 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1181935337.php&title=A%20Unique%20Era&bodytext=%20Courtesy%20of%20www.adenforecast.com%20%20%C2%A0%20The%20gold%20market%20has%20been%20under%20pressure%20lately%20and%20some%20investors%20are%20feeling%20a%20little%20nervous.%C2%A0%20But%20the%20major%20trend%20is%20clearly%20up.%C2%A0%20That%20being%20the%20case,%20let%E2%80%99s%20stand%20back%20and%20look%20at%20the%20facts...%C2%A0%20%20%C2%A0%20Gold%20has%20been%20rising%20for%20over%20six%20years%20and%20it%E2%80%99s%20gained%20158%%20since%20then....&topic=business_finance)

Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com (http://www.adenforecast.com/)

The gold market has been under pressure lately and some investors are feeling a little nervous. But the major trend is clearly up. That being the case, let’s stand back and look at the facts...

Gold has been rising for over six years and it’s gained 158% since then. That works out to 26% per annum, which has consistently been better than most other markets. The recent weakness is a bump in the road and it’s not unusual. We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2000 and it’ll probably go even higher.


Why? We’ve discussed the reasons why many times before but this is a good time to review some basics.

Essentially, the perfect storm is gathering. That’s the big picture and it’s by far the most important. If you understand this and invest based on what’s happening, we feel strongly that you’ll continue to be well rewarded in the years ahead.

Number one on our list is the global boom and wealth shift. Three billion people are now involved in the global economy who weren’t involved before and this is a massive development. Think about it for a moment…


Twenty years ago China was one of the poorest countries in the world, and so was India. Russia and Eastern Europe were Communist and shortages were commonplace. Then it all changed. Communism fell. China became a capitalistic society and the world’s leading manufacturer, embarking on a mega boom that’s poised to continue for decades.

Remember, in all of world history no country as large as China, with its over one billion population, has grown as fast and strong as China has in such a short time.

It’s the fastest growing economy in the world, it has the largest cash reserves and you have to see it to believe it. There is growth everywhere… widespread building, modernization, super highways, bright lights, big cities, thousands of skyscrapers, the world’s fastest bullet train, and hard working people who are proud of the path China is on.

Then there’s India who is following in China’s footsteps. Along with its 1.1 billion people, it’s become the world’s main service center. India’s growth has been impressive and the demand for commodities from these countries alone has been incredible.

China, for instance, has been buying up a large share of the world’s steel, lead, tin, cement, aluminum and other raw materials to build its infrastructure. Commodity imports are soaring and China is the world’s second largest oil importer.

All of this demand has been the key factor driving the commodity markets higher in recent years and there’s no end in sight. This is also coinciding with the mega commodity cycle, which has been quite consistent for over 200 years.

This cycle hit bottom in 2000 and based on its historical pattern, commodities will likely keep rising for another 15 years or so. If they do, it’ll be positive for gold and the other precious metals since these markets generally move together, along with oil, natural resources and so on.

This demand factor is very important, especially combined with the limited commodity supply. But demand is not only coming from China, India and the former Communist nations, the whole world is doing well. Currently, only two countries are in recession and over 100 countries are growing at 4% or more.

Again, this global growth fuels demand, which is good for commodities and, therefore, it’s good for gold.


Spending, money and inflation are the other three big factors we’ve often discussed and they are equally important. In fact, that’s really what this long-term bull market in gold is all about and it’s the essence of the perfect storm.

The U.S. is the world’s largest debtor nation. It keeps spending money in amounts so large it’s difficult to put it into perspective, but we’ll try… For example, at $5 million per day, it would take nearly 40,000 years to pay off the U.S. debt and liabilities. The Iraq war alone is going to cost the same amount as all of the gold that’s ever been produced in the world since the time of Christ... and on and on.

It’s all truly mind boggling but it’s happening and it’s going to intensify. How do we know?

The baby boomers are approaching retirement and their numbers are huge at 26% of the total U.S. population. The bottom line is that 20,000,000 of the retiring boomers do not have enough money to retire on. They’ll have to rely on Social Security and Medicare over the next 20 to 30 years. In addition to the majority of retired Americans who already depend on Social Security, this is going to zap an already badly strained system.

Not to be gloom and doomers but these are the facts. Very simply, the boomer effect is going to exacerbate the debt problem.


As we’ve often pointed out, to pay for all its expenses, the government simply creates money and it’s been creating piles of money. Interest payments on the debt alone are about $200 billion annually. Other countries have been pumping out lots of money too and this massive, worldwide liquidity has been driving all assets higher.

From stocks to commodities, precious metals, oil, currencies, art and real estate… if it’s an asset it’s probably been rising. That’s the good news but there’s a price to pay for all this money creation and it’s a high one.

Inflation is the direct result of excessive money creation. So far, most people haven’t noticed much. Sure, they’ll complain that their money doesn’t go as far as it used to, but as spending, debt and money grow, inflation will too.

This will also make the dollar worth less. There are too many dollars floating around, which cheapens the currency and that’s one of the main reasons why the dollar’s been falling and why it’ll continue to fall. And since gold is a hedge against inflation and it moves opposite to the dollar, that’s why gold will continue rising.


It’s also important to understand what happened in the 1970s and why this will continue to affect you.

Briefly, from that point on and by presidential decree, the dollar was no longer backed by gold. This removed all discipline and money could then be created at will.

The dollar became a paper currency, it began to float in the free market and it has lost 70% of its value since then against the other major currencies. The dollar will continue losing its value because it’s only backed by paper, by a country that has sadly run up the biggest debts in world history. Throughout history, no paper currency has ever survived. It’s a slow process but it’ll eventually happen to the dollar too.

Gold, on the other hand, has stood the test of time. It has a 5,000 year track record and it’s valuable. It always has been, and it always will be.

Gold is real money and it has maintained its purchasing power over the centuries. And as the dollar continues to slide, and spending and money creation continue on their merry way, gold will be the ultimate beneficiary.


Plus, there’s even more and this is truly the final confirmation (see Chart 1, which we believe is the most important chart we’re currently following). Here you’ll see the really big picture of the 30 year yield, together with its very long-term 80 month moving average, going back to 1930.


Note that the yield has been declining since 1981 and in recent years it’s been building a base. The long-term moving average identifies the mega trend and it doesn’t change direction often. In fact, it’s only changed three times in 77 years, but when it did, it then set in motion a new era and mega trend that lasted for decades.

The last time that happened was 22 years ago. After long-term interest rates peaked near 15% at the end of the inflationary 1970s and gold had soared to $850. The mega trend has been down since then.

Currently, however, another one of these big changes is taking place. This mega moving average is at 5.03% and the 30 year yield has soared above it. It’s now at 5.25%. if the yield stays above 5.03%, the mega trend is up, which is a huge new development. It means long-term interest rates are going much higher and that big inflation is coming for years to come, which is similar to what happened in the 1970s.

This would also coincide with the mega uptrend in commodities and it would loudly signal that a totally different era is in store, contrary to what’s been happening for over 25 years, and it’ll be extremely bullish for gold.

So bumps in the road shouldn’t sway you. Gold is in a mega trend based on fundamental factors that are not going away any time soon. So again, stay invested and we feel strongly that you’ll be glad you did.


Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com

-- Posted Friday, 15 June 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1181935337.php&title=A%20Unique%20Era&bodytext=%20Courtesy%20of%20www.adenforecast.com%20%20%C2%A0%20The%20gold%20market%20has%20been%20under%20pressure%20lately%20and%20some%20investors%20are%20feeling%20a%20little%20nervous.%C2%A0%20But%20the%20major%20trend%20is%20clearly%20up.%C2%A0%20That%20being%20the%20case,%20let%E2%80%99s%20stand%20back%20and%20look%20at%20the%20facts...%C2%A0%20%20%C2%A0%20Gold%20has%20been%20rising%20for%20over%20six%20years%20and%20it%E2%80%99s%20gained%20158%%20since%20then....&topic=business_finance)
Previous Articles by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden (http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/)

mama mia
17.06.2007, 11:43
This Week In Gold

-- Posted Sunday, 17 June 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1182092520.php&title=This%20Week%20In%20Gold&bodytext=%20By%20Jack%20Chan%20at%20www.simplyprofits.org%2006/16/2007%20%C2%A0%20%20%20%C2%A0%20$HUI%20%E2%80%93%20the%20buy%20signal%20from%20early%20June%20remains%20valid%20as%20prices%20did%20not%20violate%20the%20previous%20low.%20%C2%A0%20%20%20%C2%A0%20$XAU%20%E2%80%93%20but%20the%20buy%20signal%20on%20XAU%20has%20failed%20and%20we%20are%20waiting%20for%20a%20new%20TLBBS.%20%C2%A0%20%20%20%C2%A0%20GDX%20%E2%80%93%20buy%20signal%20also%20failed%20and%20we%20took%20a%20small%20loss,%20now...&topic=business_finance)

By Jack Chan at www.simplyprofits.org (http://www.simplyprofits.org/)



$HUI – the buy signal from early June remains valid as prices did not violate the previous low.


$XAU – but the buy signal on XAU has failed and we are waiting for a new TLBBS.


GDX – buy signal also failed and we took a small loss, now waiting for a new TLBBS.


XGD.TO – previous buy signal also failed and we took a small loss. We have a fresh buy signal this week.


Our last buy signals in the gold ETFs failed and we took a small loss on a conservative allocation. Both gold and silver have now fallen back to the 200ema support, where in the past six years, have acted as a springboard for all rallies, and three times as a launching pad for an impulsive phase to new highs. A special tutorial with a buying strategy for the gold sector in anticipation of the next impulsive phase has been posted for subscribers.


We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model which provides us the signals and set ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion.

-- Posted Sunday, 17 June 2007 | Digg This Articlehttp://www.goldseek.com/images/diggit.PNG (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1182092520.php&title=This%20Week%20In%20Gold&bodytext=%20By%20Jack%20Chan%20at%20www.simplyprofits.org%2006/16/2007%20%C2%A0%20%20%20%C2%A0%20$HUI%20%E2%80%93%20the%20buy%20signal%20from%20early%20June%20remains%20valid%20as%20prices%20did%20not%20violate%20the%20previous%20low.%20%C2%A0%20%20%20%C2%A0%20$XAU%20%E2%80%93%20but%20the%20buy%20signal%20on%20XAU%20has%20failed%20and%20we%20are%20waiting%20for%20a%20new%20TLBBS.%20%C2%A0%20%20%20%C2%A0%20GDX%20%E2%80%93%20buy%20signal%20also%20failed%20and%20we%20took%20a%20small%20loss,%20now...&topic=business_finance)

mama mia
17.06.2007, 17:17
June 14, 2007 08:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time
GATA Will Demand Truth about U.S. Gold Reserves

MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Constitutional scholar, writer, and lawyer Edwin Vieira has been retained by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. to lead an inquiry into the disposition and possible impairment of United States gold reserves.

Vieira, author of the monetary history of the United States, "Pieces of Eight," is a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School and a renowned spokesman for sound money.

Consulting for GATA, using the federal Freedom of Information Act, and retaining a Washington-area law firm, Vieira will seek to compel the U.S. government to disclose records showing how much gold is in the government's custody; who owns it; whether it has been leased or otherwise made available to foreign governments or gold market participants; and whether the policies and practices behind the use of U.S. gold reserves have been meant to influence the price of gold.

GATA, a non-profit civil rights and educational organization founded in 1999, has published evidence that central banks and government financial agencies, including the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, work together, usually surreptitiously but sometimes openly, to rig nominally free gold markets as part of their general program of controlling international currency exchange rates. That evidence includes the transcript of the meeting of the Federal Reserve Board's Federal Open Market Committee on January 31, 1995, which confirmed the U.S. government's participation in gold swaps - exchanges of gold with other governments so that gold might be introduced into markets without being easily traced to the originating government.

"Because gold is a measure of all currencies, government bonds, and the value of labor, a free gold market is crucial to the freedom of all markets and, indeed, to honest dealing and personal liberty throughout the world," GATA Chairman William J. Murphy said. "As the nominal holder of the largest official gold reserves in the world and the issuer of the primary world reserve currency, the U.S. government has much to answer for here. No one is more expert in these issues than Ed Vieira, and all GATA wants is the truth. In a democracy that should not be too much to ask."

In addition to hiring a Washington-area law firm, Murphy said, GATA's demand for the U.S. government to produce information about its gold reserves probably will lead to litigation under the Freedom of Information Act. So, he added, "We now will be especially grateful for financial contributions to underwrite our legal campaign for the truth."

GATA is recognized as tax-exempt by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service and contributions to it are federally tax-deductible in the United States. Contributions may be sent to:

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

USA GATA's Internet site is found at www.GATA.org (http://www.gata.org/).


17.06.2007, 23:55
Outlook for the week starting June 18th (week 25)

As the inflation theme reappears, fueled by soaring oil prices, gold seems well supported both physical and technical at levels between 645-650$/oz.
Ending the week on top of 652$/oz, gold has sent out a signal of willingness to recover.
Evidence however shows that gold is trapped in a longer term period of consolidation, which may further extend throughout the coming summer months, which are traditionally weak on physical demand.

The gold market has been saturated over the last months through elevated levels of central bank sales, with an estimated 180 metric tonnes of gold being liquidated over the last 3 months. The timing of these sales has also undermined what is likely to have been a crucial moment in gold’s upward momentum, when challenging 694$ an ounce.

However, we believe that the lackluster behavior as of late is not the consequence of a structural deterioration in the gold complex, but more of a seasonal weakness that has been fueled and emphasized by a recovering dollar - finding support in higher U.S. bond yields and technical factors - and partially by diversified portfolios that retract substantial amounts of liquidity when global equity markets start to wobble.

For week 25, expect the recovery theme to extend as the Euro is finding some renewed strength and oil prices are likely to fuel some inflation-hedge buying. Good support is expected in the upper 640'ies, with resistance emerging ahead of 658$/oz. Key resistance at 672$/oz needs to be overcome in order to confirm a sustainable uptrend.


mama mia
18.06.2007, 17:54
Elliott Wave Gold Update XIV

Alf Field
18 Jun, 2007

A Fire Alarm went off in the markets last week.

If the "Cash is Trash" and "Fiat currencies are headed for oblivion" arguments for holding gold and other tangible assets are correct, the least desirable asset category that one would wish to own would be long term bonds.

On the other hand, if the deflationists who argue that the world is on the verge of a debt implosion leading to a deflationary depression are correct, "Cash will be King" and long term US Government bonds will be the most desirable form of investment.

This is why it is vitally important to watch events in the long term 10 Year US Government Bond market because that is where the initial scenes of this drama will be played out. Last week a fire alarm signal sounded in the 10 Year US Government Bonds, as can be seen in the following monthly chart of these bonds.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061807/1.gif Data updated to 15 June 2007 This chart goes back to 1983 and shows that the steeper 23 year down trendline was broken in 2006. Since then the bond yields have traded under a less steep trendline that goes back to early 1995. Note that bonds trade inversely to the yields. A declining trend in yields, such as that displayed above, indicates a bull market in bonds - bonds appreciated in value during that period. When interest rates are in a rising trend, bonds depreciate in value.

The fact that bond yields have now broken above both these two trendlines suggests that US Government bonds are in a bear market. This is the fire alarm signal that sounded last week. It would require a yield over 5.50% to absolutely confirm the start of the bear market in bonds. The recent action appears in far more dramatic fashion in the daily chart of 10 Yr US Government Bonds, as depicted in the following chart:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061807/2.gif Data updated to 15 June 2007 The US bond bear market scenario is replicated in bond markets around the world. It seems that the bond bear market is a world wide phenomenon. Rising interest rates imply Stagflation ahead with pressures emerging in multiple areas that will require Ben Bernanke's electronic money producing helicopter gun ships to come to the rescue. The surge of "store of value" investment into gold and other tangible investments should gather a strong head of steam.

Turning now to the gold price action, in Update XIII the following chart and comments were presented:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061807/3.gif Data updated to 16 May 2007 Quote from UpdateXIII:

"If this interpretation is correct, then we have an extremely bullish outlook immediately ahead as the most powerful move, wave iii of wave 3 of wave THREE, should soon get underway. In a wave iii of 3 of THREE situation, such as this, one can anticipate a sling-shot upward movement in excess of $100 per ounce for gold, without any significant corrections.

"Markets spend 90% of the time making up their minds what to do - and then only 10% of the time actually doing what they have to do in terms of dramatic moves. It is now more than 12 months since the $725 wave ONE peak was reached in gold in May 2006. The gold market has spent this time coiling and twirling, building up strength and momentum for the rapid move to the upside. Gold has spent the 90% of the time building this launch pad. It seems ready for lift-off in the dramatic move occupying 10% of the time. This would be a perfect fit for a wave iii of 3 of THREE type wave, generally the strongest in any sequence.

"An analogy could be that of a hammer thrower in athletics. The athlete twirls around in the launch cage, going faster and faster until maximum momentum is achieved. At that point the hammer is released and flies the maximum distance possible from the momentum that has been generated. Gold has spent a year twirling and building momentum. The time has come for the gold market to launch itself upwards to points well above the old $725 high point of a year ago."

The assumption a month ago was that the gold market was experiencing the first minor correction (an expected 3% to 5% decline) in the anticipated strong upward wave 3 of wave THREE move. The correction at that time had already reached 4% from the $691.4 peak and it was stated that the decline needed to hold within 1% of that level, i.e. 5% from the peak, which was a limit of $656.8.

As things have turned out, the decline was greater than expected and the lowest PM fixing (to date) has been $647.2 on 12 June 2007. That represents a decline of 6.4%. In the Comex 2 Month Forward Gold price the decline has been larger, from $697.4 to $648.7, a decline of 7.0%. This requires us to discard the first wave correction (wave ii of wave 3) analysis formulated last time. Something different is going on that requires deeper examination.

The following is an updated chart of the PM Gold Fixing chart:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061807/4.gif Data updated to 15 June 2007 What seems to have happened is something most unusual and very intriguing. It looks as if the C wave of the A-B-C correction making up wave 2 of wave THREE has itself formed a smaller irregular a-b-c correction!

As explained in Update XII, an irregular correction is one where the peak of the B wave is above the starting point of the A wave. Irregular corrections, especially ones that are skewed upwards (as in the gold chart) are indicative of a very strong underlying market that should soon give way to rapid upside advances.

To have an irregular correction followed by a smaller irregular correction at the next lesser degree of magnitude is something extremely rare. What it means is that the ultra bullish outlook expressed in Update XIII has in no way been diminished by the recent correction to below $650. In fact, if anything, the ultra bullish scenario has been reinforced.

The following is the chart of the Comex 2 Month Forward gold price:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field061807/5.gif Data Updated to 15 June 2007 The smaller a-b-c irregular correction is easily discernible. The b-wave peak at $697.4 is above the start of the a-wave at $693.7. The a-wave decline is 7.7% while the c-wave decline is 7.0% to date. These two declines are sufficiently close in magnitude to suggest that they are part of the same corrective formation, hence the smaller irregular correction analysis.

There is a possibility that the formation might turn into an irregular FLAT correction. That simply means that the c-wave may get down closer to the $639.9 low of the a-wave. In the gold PM fixings, a flat correction could result in the c-wave reaching the low point of the a-wave, which is $636.7.

If the gold price declines significantly below these low points for a flat correction, (say below $630) then we would have to consider the possibility of more serious downside corrective action.

If, however, the smaller irregular a-b-c corrective pattern is the correct analysis, then we should experience a very strong upside move, possibly a $100 upside catapult, commencing very soon.

The fact that the "fire alarm" has been ringing in the bond markets around the world suggests that the "Cash is Trash" and "Fiat currencies are headed for Oblivion" camp will prove to be correct. A new wave of "store of value" investment in gold and other tangibles should now gather momentum. This might well be the trigger that gives rise to the sharp upward move in the precious metals that the Elliott Wave analysis suggests is imminent.

18 Jun, 2007
Alf Field

Comments may be directed to the author at: ajfield@attglobal.net

mama mia
18.06.2007, 17:57
Gold Will Not Plunge Much Further

Boris Sobolev
Jun 18, 2007

Why have gold prices been weak despite rising treasury yields, and is the gold weakness just a temporary setback or something more? But first, we would like to examine why yields are on the upswing. The main reasons are clear:

Central Banks in much of the world are reacting to a threat of inflation by pushing short term interest rates up. As the world economy remains robust, the long term interest rates are following. Even though the Federal Reserve in the U.S. is not raising rates, higher interest rates around the world are spilling over into the United States.
Possibly the more important factor is that the world's currency reserves of around $5 trillion are being slowly reallocated away from the dollar. We know that China, Russia, and a score of oil exporters have expressed their intentions to reduce U.S. dollar exposure, and some have already done so.
Although bond prices have thus far moved substantially lower, they are still heftily priced. A persistent but orderly downtrend would be reasonable and far from cataclysmic.

Yet, it is not inconceivable that the central bankers may start to panic as they see the value of their vast U.S. bond holdings shrink rapidly. In this case, emotions could take over and bonds will fall faster and further than anyone anticipates. We don't believe that this scenario is likely at this point in time, yet it cannot be ruled out in the future.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sobolev/sobolev061807.gif In the chart above, the ratio between the U.S. dollar and the 10-Year T-Note yield is one of the best indirect indicators for capital inflow into the United States. A consistent downward trend since 2003 shows that despite rising interest rates, the U.S. dollar remains weak. This clearly indicates a decrease in the foreigners' willingness to finance U.S. current account deficit as well as an increased push toward currency reserves diversification.

Most of the steep downfalls in the ratio over the last few years have been accompanied by a significant rise in the gold price. A common explanation to this is that gold, as an inflation hedge moves inversely to the dollar. It is important to note, however, that the U.S. dollar today is 2.5% higher than in the beginning of 2005. Yet, the gold price has grown by 55% in the same time period. This goes to show that for over two and a half years, gold has moved mostly due to rising inflation expectations rather than the falling dollar.

So, what's behind the latest weakness in gold?

The traders who ever since the Fed finished raising rates have been betting on a loosening monetary policy have now lost all hope of a rate cut. Seeing an increased tightening bias all over the world, they have decided to take profits in gold and move into the U.S. dollar.

They conveniently forget that the Fed is usually behind the curve when it comes to fighting inflation. Central banks are always quick to boost money supply at excessive rates, but are slow to react to its negative consequences. There will be the next Paul Volcker who will restore monetary discipline, but not in the foreseeable future.

We do not see anything unusual in the gold decline over the last two months. An additional 5-7% downside would be a godsend. We continue to see the best investing opportunities in gold, silver and energy stocks (http://www.resourcestockguide.com/comparison_table_page.php?p=0%7C1%7C3%7C0%7C0%7C33%7C0). As Asia becomes the world's economic growth engine, competition for resources will only increase. Together with growing investment demand, it will continue boosting metal and energy prices for at least another decade.

Resource Stock Guide (RSG) provides a free dynamic database for over 120 gold, silver and uranium companies. Stock, metal and currency prices are updated daily; company resources, costs, finances, etc. are updated within 2 to 5 business days after their release.

Jun 18, 2007
Boris Sobolev
Denver, Colorado - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sobolev/sobolev061807.html

mama mia
18.06.2007, 18:12

Asian markets Monday shrug off Swiss gold sales announcement

Despite last week’s announcement by one of gold’s staunchest supporters, the Swiss National Bank, that it would be selling 250 tonnes of gold holdings by 2009, Asian gold and silver markets reported one-week highs Monday.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 18 Jun 2007

The announcement late last week that Switzerland's central bank would sell 20% or 250 tonnes of its gold holdings has apparently been shrugged off by international markets today.

Renowned as a staunch supporter of gold, Swiss National Bank's announcement Thursday that it was planning to sell 250 tonnes of gold before the end of 2009 did cause gold prices to fall to $649.50/oz Friday on the LME. However, gold rebounded to a high of $656.50/oz later in the day.

Asian markets shook off the announcement this morning as gold rose to its highest levels in more than a week as the U.S. dollar declined, increasing the appeal of gold and silver as a hedge against U.S. currency. Spot gold hit an intraday high of $656.50 an ounce before declining to $656.20/oz.

In Japan, gold for April 2008 delivery increased 1.2% to $663/oz as of lunchtime on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Meanwhile, silver hit an intraday high of $13.28/oz today in Asia, its highest level since June 8, according to Reuters.

At a news conference late last week, SNB Governing Board Member Thomas Jordan made the following announcement:

"The Swiss National Bank is adjusting the composition of its currency reserves. Before the end of September 2009 it will sell 250 tonnes of gold and increase its foreign exchange reserves by a corresponding amount. The overall level of currency reserves will remain unchanged.

"The gold sales fall within the bounds set by the second Gold Agreement of 8 March 2004, in which the central banks of the Eurosystem, plus the Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank, agreed to limit their gold sales over a period of five years, beginning on 28 September 2004. The Gold Agreement specifies that annual sales by all signatories may not exceed 500 tonnes and that the total sales volume over this period shall not amount to more than 2,500 tonnes. For the gold sales it was planning, the SNB was allocated a quota not claimed by other central banks that were party to the agreement of 2004. The SNB has chosen an approach for its gold sales that will avoid market unrest, with regular sales transactions.

"The Swiss National Bank holds currency reserves in the form of foreign currency and gold, thereby ensuring that it has room for maneuver in its monetary policy at all times. As a result of the sharp rise in the price of gold, the proportion of the currency reserves held as gold has increased by about a quarter since mid 2005, from 33% to the current level of 42%. The purpose of the SNB's gold sales is to rebalance the composition of currency reserves with respect to its monetary policy requirements. Moreover, by reducing its gold reserves and increasing its foreign exchange reserves, the overall risk on SNB assets will decline :rolleyes Once the sales have been completed, the Swiss National Bank's gold holdings will amount to some 1,040 tonnes," Jordan concluded.


mama mia
18.06.2007, 21:00
Verfasst von Redaktion (http://www.goldseiten.de/content/kolumnen/autoren.php?uid=46