Vollständige Version anzeigen : Vergesst High-Tech ..... dies sind die echten Gewinner für die nächsten Monate !
.... nämlich die Werte aus dem Naturgas-Bereich.
NG (Natural Gas) ist heute auf $6.23 an der NYMEX angestiegen ... Tendenz aufwärts. Wenn man sich die Wetterprognosen anschaut, dann dürfte es in einigen Regionen ziemlich kalt werden.
Dem Aktionär dabei aber warm ums Herz. Nach einer Konsolidierungsphase streben diese Werte wieder nach oben (ausgehend von schönen Konsolidierungsformationen) !
M.E. sollte vorwiegend die NG-Karte gespielt werden und weniger das Öl, obwohl als Beimischung sicherlich auch interessant !
Meine Favoriten sind:
Anadarko Petro APC (Gas und Öl) .... Kursziel 100 Dollar
Apache Corp. APA (Gas) .... Kursziel 70 Dollar
EOG (Gas-Tochter von Enron) .... Kursziel 52 Dollar
Als umfassende Quellen sind zu nennen:
www.nymex.com (http://www.nymex.com) und der Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/business/energy/index.html
Good luck
Ralph
PS: soviel ich weiss, wird der "Aktionär" morgen auch den Naturgas-Bereich featuren !
[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Ralph am 15.11.2000 editiert.]
Vor fünf Minuten sind die Lagerbestände für die laufende Woche gemeldet worden ... erwartet wurde ein Aufbau von 5-15 BCF .... tatsächlich war ein Rückgang zu vermelden -6 BCF.
Tja, wenn es mal richtig Winter wird, dann kriegen die Amis ihr Fett, für eine vollkommen verfehlte Energiepolitik .... na ja, uns soll es Recht sein !
Kursziel Natural Gas $8.00
Ralph
Öl aktuell bei $36 .... nicht schlecht !
Ralph
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Cold pushes natural gas to record
Inventory figures due out today (Anmerk.: diese stehen oben !)
By MICHAEL DAVIS
Copyright 2000 Houston Chronicle
Frigid weather in the Upper Midwest that is bound for the Northeast sent natural gas prices to a record high Tuesday.
The cold weather is the dominant force in energy markets now, but other factors will be influencing prices as well.
Analysts and traders also will be taking their cues from natural gas inventory figures that will be out after the market closes today. If the figures show that gas has been withdrawn from storage -- it would be the first such drawdown of the heating season -- look for prices to keep going up. .... und so war es auch !
Expectations of whether gas will be pulled from storage vary. Art Gelber, with Gelber & Associates, a Houston energy consulting firm, is expecting a modest inventory reduction.
Kyle Cooper, oil analyst with Salomon Smith Barney in Houston, is looking for natural gas inventories to be unchanged and possibly even to increase slightly.
Natural gas for delivery in December at the Henry Hub in Louisiana closed Tuesday at $6.01 per thousand cubic feet, up 31.8 cents. At this time last year, the December contract was trading for about $2.64.
Under current conditions of cold weather and tight supplies, and assuming that such weather patterns continue, natural gas could easily reach $7 per thousand cubic feet, Gelber said.
"This cold weather reversed a $1.50 decline that we had roughly 10 days ago; this market is moving up very strongly," Gelber said.
Natural gas prices are expected to remain high throughout the winter.
Steve Thumb, principal with Energy Ventures Analysis of Arlington, Va., has speculated that spot gas -- gas bought for immediate delivery rather than under a futures contract -- could trade for as high as http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gif $20 to $30 http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gif per thousand cubic feet if a major cold front strikes the Northeast. .... dann gehen aber in USA die Lichter aus !
Natural gas companies have been warning their customers for months that if the nation has a normal winter this year, as predicted, after three years of mild winters, consumers could see their natural gas bills rise by 35 to 40 percent through March.
The American Gas Association estimates current inventories of available gas at 2.75 trillion cubic feet, about 9 percent short of where they stood a year ago.
Heating oil prices also rose sharply Tuesday, another sign that the weather is the primary force driving the market. Heating oil helped move crude oil up as well, although oil storage figures out after the market closed showed inventories were up, which should dampen crude prices today.
The American Petroleum Institute said U.S. oil inventories at the end of last week were up by 2.5 million barrels. Oil inventories are about 24.7 million barrels below where they were at this time last year.
During the winter is usually the only time of the year when natural gas and heating oil tend to track each other up or down. During the rest of the year, natural gas tends to trade on its own, independent of other energy commodities.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries did not raise its oil production quotas earlier this week at its regular fall meeting. Cartel members instead are now voicing concern that they may have to pull oil off the market after winter to keep prices from crashing when demand drops off.
U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said Tuesday that despite OPEC's decision not to raise oil production, more crude is needed in world markets. Current oil prices are too high, Richardson said, noting the Clinton administration would prefer crude to drop to the $20 to $25 range.
"We still think there's a supply problem; that the world needs more production," he told CNBC.
Source: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/energy/747544
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Ralph
Uih, was finde ich da !
Apache Corp. erhält Upgrade !
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Apache Corp(APA)
We are upgrading APA to 1-Buy to reflect
(1) strong oil and gas prices;
(2) an acceleration of APA's per-share growth rates;
(3)underperformance vs its closest peers and
(4) the attractive valuation.
We believe that our 2001 oil and gas forecasts of $25/bbl and $4.20/MMBtu may prove conservative.
We expect production per share to rise 16% in 2000 and 17% in 2001 compared with low single digit growth rates in the 1990s
APA has risen less than 50% this year -- about 20% less than the avg. gas-oriented big cap peer (APC, BR, DVN, EOG, NBL).
Source: http://www.cnetinvestor.com/yahoonews/newsitem-yahoo.asp?SYMBOL=T694489
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Ralph
Hi,
beobachtet mal Exxon, BP und Shell und die ganze Zulieferindustrie!!
Dort sprudeln die Gewinne!!!
Gruß
Gerthttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif
Gerti,
ich sehe schon, wir schwimmen auf einer Welle http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/newlaugh.gif http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif
Best of luck
Ralph
PS: bist du investiert ?
Nö,
hab zur Zeit keine Kohle, müsste Verluste realisieren!!
Aber die Ölkonzerne und die Kunstoffhersteller kann man das nächste halbe Jahr zu den Gewinnern zählen.
Die Herren Bayer, BASF,Höchst und Co. erhöhen im Moment die Preise gewaltig!
Die sind im Moment am höheren Hebel!!!
Gruß
Gert
Gerti,
Bayer schaue ich mir auch schon eine Weile an .... konnte mich aber noch nicht durchringen ! .... weniger wegen dem Öl, als vielmehr der Zyklik in diesem Wert, aber noch ist es a bisserl früh, da reinzugehen .... noch http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/newlaugh.gif
Ralph
Glaub mir,
die machen Überproportial demnächst Gewinne ohne Ende.
Verkaufen die Kunstoffe nach Übersee und hier wird der Markt verknappt, hier wird jeder Preis bezahlt, man bekommt nur einen gewissen Teil zugeteilt und das wars!!
Friß oder stirb!!!
Gert
Gerti,
klasse .... ich mach mal in der Europa-Ecke einen Bayer-Thread auf !
Ralph
He Ralph,
ein Bekannter von mir arbeitet bei einem internation tätigen Konzern im Einkauf.
Die müssen jetzt für die amerikanischen Werke hier das billige Material kaufen.
Die fegen im Moment den Markt leer!
Gruß
Gert
Haltet Ihr die NG-Werte nicht für mehr als eine Wette auf das Wetter? Die Logik mit dem kalten Winter in USA leuchtet schon ein, aber fällt der Kurs dann nicht, wenn das Thermometer steigt? http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif
Gruß
Patrick
Ne Patrick, ich denke eher das Naturgas sich zu einer dauerhaften Alternative entwickeln muß zum Öl. Ausdauer ist angesagt und kalte Winter werden den Kursen und den guten Stuben zusätzlich einheizen http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif
Matze
Die amerikanischen Verbaucher sind weitaus abhängiger vom "Natural Gas" als vom Öl. Da sich die Läger auf einem 27-Jahrestief in den USA befinden, besteht berechtigte Hoffnung, dass sich die Preise für NG noch weiter erhöhen werden ..... und da dürften ein paar Schwankungen auf dem Thermometer kurzfristig wenig Entlastung bringen.
Der Winter beginnt erst ..... interessant wird es im Januar !
Ausserdem hat Matze Recht, dass NG zunehmend als Energieträger dem Öl gegenüber präferiert wird !
Good luck
Ralph
Hier wieder ein sehr interessanter Artikel aus dem Wall Street Journal, der offensichtlich macht, wie dramatisch die Situation in einigen Regionen ist. Der macht auch ganz drastisch die Abhängigkeit der Amerikaner vom Naturgas anstatt vom Öl deutlich.
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California Power Plants Get Jolt As Natural-Gas Supplies Are Cut
By Rebecca Smith
Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
LOS ANGELES -- Southern California power plants, already stressed to their limits last summer, got another jolt this week as a cold snap caused a sharp curtailment of supplies of natural gas used to generate electricity. http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gif
The power plants were able to switch to burning oil and continue to produce electricity. But the unusual curtailment of natural gas underlines concerns that an increased reliance on gas for power generation across the U.S. is putting the reliability of the nation's electricity supply at risk. http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gif
That's because virtually all power plants now under construction in the U.S. burn gas and only gas. The units affected this week in San Diego were able to shift to oil only because they were older plants that originally were constructed to burn oil. Generators have been reluctant to add a dual-fuel flexibility to plants in recent years because oil is far more polluting than gas and generally has been costlier.
In California, where gas-supply problems first surfaced on Monday in San Diego, there is pessimism about a Hydra-like energy crisis that seems to grow new heads every day. The state weathered three-dozen electrical emergencies last summer, caused by a shortage of electricity. Officials had hoped to solve the problem by speeding up construction of new generating plants. Now, they're finding the state may be building its way out of an electrical problem and into a gas problem. http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gif
One official, who has been warning of the danger of reliance on a single fuel, said this week's disruption pointed out the necessity of developing a comprehensive energy policy that recognizes how changes in usage of oil, gas and electricity affect each other. "We don't just need new generating plants and transmission lines, we may need pipelines, too," said Terry Winter, chief executive officer of the California Independent System Operator, the organization responsible for maintaining adequate electricity supplies. "You can't look at these things in isolation."
The natural-gas problems surfaced when the local gas-distribution company, San Diego Gas & Electric Co., notified power-plant operators and a handful of industrial users that it would be restricting their gas use by about half. In California, residential and small businesses have first crack at natural gas, and industrial uses are regarded as secondary, even if they are generating plants. Dynegy Inc., the Houston-based energy concern that owns some of the older plants that serve San Diego, immediately switched to oil. But it didn't like doing so; its plants create three times as much pollution when they burn oil and exhaust valuable air-pollution emission credits that power plants here need to operate.
The San Diego units couldn't simply be shut down, because the state was short of power. Roughly 30% of the state's capacity already was off-line, including many of its nuclear units, as most of those plants are now undergoing repair after being run at capacity limits throughout the summer.
What's more, the gas-pipeline system that feeds San Diego isn't big enough to begin with. The system was built primarily to serve residential customers and not big power plants.
The problems could persist, off and on, through the winter. That's because gas-storage levels are down sharply from a year ago throughout the nation, but especially in California, because it ran its gas-fired units so hard last summer. This time last year, Southern California had 87 billion cubic feet of gas in storage. Now, it's roughly 50 billion cubic feet, or 43% less. Prices also have moved up sharply, from roughly $2.50 a million British thermal units to around $8 this week. Nationally, storage levels are down about 8% from a year ago.
"Gas is trading higher in California than anywhere else in the nation," said John Lavorato, chief operating officer of Enron North America, a unit of Enron Corp. of Houston. But he said they're headed up in the Northeast, based on cold weather forecast for the next 10 days to two weeks.
High prices for fuel also push up prices for the end product, electricity. In California the average price for electricity to be delivered Thursday was $228 per megawatt hour. That's double the price a week ago and five times the price a year earlier.
Source: http://public.wsj.com/sn/y/SB97433097979566166.html
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Ralph.]
[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Ralph am 16.11.2000 editiert.]
Noch ein guter Bericht (Kernaussagen sind fett gekennzeichnet):
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November 17, 2000
By Mark Stone, Syndicated Columnist
The Mark Stone Report: Natural Gas Shares Roar
Miami, FL, November 17 /SHfn/ -- Natural gas futures are giving the crude oil rally a run for its money, having rallied since the end of October. Because there isn't an OPEC cartel dictating the price of natural gas, this sub-sector has barely been covered by traditional media channels. It is common knowledge that natural gas inventories are exceptionally low ahead as winter quietly approaches. Some forecasts made in September indicated that natural gas futures might reach $8 should a cold winter arrive. http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif December nat gas futures closed at $6.26, off a $6.32 record intraday in the final moments of futures trading. Momentum investors are lagging behind in trading this potential profit opportunity. ..... aber das wird nicht lange dauern, bis man da drauf kommt !
Is this the top of the market? Perhaps for now, but not during winter. It is common that stocks pace the underlying commodity they produce and key stocks in this sector are rising. While key natural gas share prices moved higher on Wednesday, trading volume remained within its 65-day average. Momentum investors are lagging behind in trading this potential profit opportunity. They may find themselves chasing these stocks higher as winter advances, as it invariably will. Cambridge Energy Research reported, earlier this year, that natural gas prices could stay high over the next three years.
One of the more pure plays in the sector is Barrett Resources [BRR] with its Rocky Mountain properties within the Wind River, Powder River and Piceance basins of Colorado and Wyoming. As of last year, its estimated proven reserves stood at 1,133.8 billion cubic feet equivalent (BCFE) with a mix of 95% natural gas and 5% crude oil. Based upon 1999 production of 103.5 BCFE, implied reserves should last for 11 years. Including its interests in southwestern Kansas, northeastern Colorado and Oklahoma, those areas comprise about 90% of the company's focus. Barrett Resources owns and operates a natural gas processing plant in the Piceance basin, a natural gas gathering system and a 27-mile pipeline. Over 80% of BR's energy production came from nearly 1800 owned and operated producing wells. Comparatively, Barrett Resources suffers against its counterparts because of its lower profit and operating margins.
Ongoing exploration and development projects demonstrate that BR should remain in a leadership position over the next three years.
Much larger Burlington Resources [BR] enjoyed a "buy" rating when Deutsche Banc Alex Brown initiated coverage on November 7. BR has moved higher since then, further luxuriating in the rally of natural gas futures. Burlington is about seven times larger than Barrett and boasts higher operating and profit margins with a lower debt/equity ratio. Ongoing exploration and development projects demonstrate that BR should remain in a leadership position over the next three years. While most of its natural gas production comes from U.S. properties, substantial projects are underway in Canada and internationally. Because BR is mainly an oil producer, it will also move in the direction of crude oil.
On the same day that BR got their Deutsche Banc buy rating, EOG Resources [EOG] was rated a "strong buy" by the same firm. On November 1, EOG, formerly Enron Oil and Gas, was added to the S&P 500. EOG operates natural gas projects in the U.S., Canada and Trinidad. While its estimated nat gas production is about half that of BR, EOG stands out because of its "unhedged" position. Many commodity producers hedge against future production to lock in rates. This also deprives shareholders of explosive appreciation during strong commodity rallies.
This column has previously covered Devon Energy [DVN], which continues to shine despite its recent merger with Santa Fe Snyder. The company is rated among the top five U.S.-based independent oil and gas producers. DVN frequently shows up in lists of favorite natural gas stocks with 76% of its production coming from North America. Substantial projects are underway in Africa, South America, Australia, and the Middle East. The company operates over 8,000 wells.
© 2000 by The Mark Stone Report. The Mark Stone Report consists of primary and independent research into the markets: fundamental research of small cap stock opportunities and technical research for trading opportunities in NYSE & NASDAQ stocks and stock indices. This is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. No recommendations are made to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Trading in securities may not be suitable for all individuals and involves the risk of all or part of your investment. Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability. Information included in this article, while considered to be accurate and reliable, is not guaranteed as such.
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Trefft die richtigen Entscheidungen ! .... good luck
Ralph
Forecasts of cold send oil prices up
Bloomberg Business News
NEW YORK -- Crude oil and heating oil futures prices rose Friday after next week's weather forecasts were revised.
The forecasts of colder weather spurred concern that stronger demand for heating fuel will reduce already low inventories.
A weather pattern that brought an early cold spell from Chicago to New York will re-establish itself next week, according to Windsong Forecast in Richmond, Va.
Forecasts Thursday and earlier Friday for a warm-up next week had sent prices lower. Expectations for stronger heating demand come at a time when heating oil supplies are 31 percent below year-ago levels.
"A consensus has emerged that there will be extremely cold weather in the East," heating oil's top market, said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at Fimat Futures in New York. "The market has an extreme upward bias with these tight supplies."
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December light, sweet crude rose 33 cents to $35.45 a barrel. December natural gas settled at $6.100 per thousand cubic feet, up 30.2 cents. December heating oil rose 2.48 cents to $1.08 a gallon, and December unleaded gasoline fell .45 cent to 91.81 cents a gallon.
Supplies of heating oil fell 655,000 barrels to 46.8 million last week, the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday. Heating demand in the Northeast, where 80 percent of the fuel is consumed, will be 42 percent above normal over the next seven days, according to Weather Derivatives of Belton, Mo.
Oil producers and consumers meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, say crude prices are still too high even after four production increases by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this year. The producers are reluctant to raise output further.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Thursday that the world didn't need additional crude oil supplies.
"The time is not yet right for a fifth increase," the official Saudi Press Agency quoted the minister of the world's top producer as saying.
Algerian Oil Minister Chekib Khalil, who will become OPEC president in January, said he favored prices around $25 a barrel, though he also said supply is sufficient for now.
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When the tough get going, the going get tough ! .... good luck
Ralph
Wie ich dem Bondtalk von Freitag entnommen habe, belebt sich Naturalgas ( alle Jahre wieder?:D), weil längerfristige Meteorologen-Prognosen ( nach Fotos aus der Stratosphäre ) vorgelegt wurden, nach denen der Kommende Winter für größere Teile der USA recht hart wird und weil Naturalgas (NG) davon am stärksten profitiert.
Die oben von Ralph ( November-Timing war gut:) genannten APC, APA, EOG sind gerade dabei, von niedrigerBasis aus inverse SKS-Formationen zu bilden. Aber das treibt mich nicht zu diesem Posting.:)
Mir gefällt Hanover Compressor HC ( 25.5 USD). Die beliefern die Natural-Gas-Industrie mit Kompressoren. Der CEO und ein anderer Knabe aus dem Vorstand mag seinen eigenen Laden und hat jetzt erstmals seit 1999 eine größere Position seiner Aktien gekauft. Damals hatte er ein goldenen Händchen und wurde innerhalb von 6 Monaten mit einem netten Anstieg ( 200 %) belohnt. Seht Ihr, so etwas mag ich, wenn jemand, der sein Unternehmen kennt wie kein anderer, nicht nur verbal Zuversicht zeigt.:D
Ich geh da hinein. Die Kennzahlen sind nicht schlecht.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&symb=HC&sid=42763&time=8
Gruß
KA:)
Übrigens und nur am Rande! Den Rohstoff-Index hat es ganz nett zerrissen ( das nennt man De-Inflationierung als Sonder-Konjunkturprogramm:) Wär kein Wunder, wenn der nicht mal in Kürse überlegt, ob er nicht einmal ein Bisschen bouncen soll. In der Gegend wo er es tun könnte, ist er zumindest.
http://www.securitytrader.com/Production_Charts/10_19_2001-i-^crb-r-w.gif
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