TotalStock
10.12.2000, 21:54
Hallo Leute, das muß jetzt mal sein *g
Title : 40 Bear Types
1 ) Apocalypse Bear: Thinks global economy will collapse due to total charade organized and controlled by The Powers That Be. Predicts massive inflation followed by repudiation of fiat currency, or worldwide deflation take your pick ) . Looks to political events for clues about the future. Was hoping Y2K would be more eventful than it turned out to be. Holds gold stocks and some bear funds. Isn't quite ready to commit to shorting or buying puts. Waiting for confirmation. In the meantime has stocked up on food and water, 'just in case it gets real bad'.
2 ) Credit Crisis Bear: Reads complicated essays about esoteric financial issues. Concerned about low savings rates, trade deficits, the yield curve, bond market hijinks, bank overextension, and the money supply. Has seen so much negative data over the past four years, it's hard to detect any real signal anymore. Tends to play with broad market instruments as opposed to individual stocks. Hasn't lost shirt.
3 ) Weary Bear: Expects high P/E stocks to come back to earth when fundamentals reassert themselves. Once was an enthusiastic bear ( say in 1997, 8, and 9 ) . Has witnessed the market stall and dip, only to blast off again, several times. Significantly burned with worthless puts or short squeezes more than once. Has developed an exquisite sense for the market. Won't get fooled again. Mostly in the market for revenge. Pops in and out of bear funds and occasional put/shorts. Is waiting for the right time, at which time will pile on and ride the market down. Is not expecting a crash, but wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
4 ) Trading Bear: Looks for stocks to bounce around but generally head south. Feels that Technical Analysis is the way to go most of the time. Has been a survivor ( unlike some vanquished Weary Bears ) because of nimble trading and tight stops. Daytrades or week-trades. Has had some successes, but also some losses in the last three years. Is likely to short-cover a little too soon if the Big One hits.
5 ) New Bear: Just showed up and doesn't understand why old-time bears listed above ) aren't gung-ho about an immediate market decline. Hasn't experienced a snap-back rally. Hasn't owned a double-inverse Nasdaq fund, but thinks it's attractive. Hasn't shorted or held puts, been in the money, only to have some meatball analyst talk up stocks prior to expiration Friday. May be in for some rude surprises. Soon will choose what kind of bear to be. Many become Trading Bears. Others split into Apocalypse, Credit Crisis, and Weary Bear categories.
6 ) Smart Bear: Avoided the NASDAQ for the most part. Managed to short those stocks which were part of the 'stealth' bear market. Most likely a fundamentalist who also was aware of the great risks in betting against a momentum sector. Moves in for gains only after clear and convincing evidence appears for earnings problems and lack of market enthusiasm.
7 ) Information Overload Bear: Has read Fleckenstein and Tice for years. Paid attention to Barton Biggs, Alan Abelson, and Jim Grant. Knows all the arguments regarding market overvaluation. Owns a dog-eared copy of The Great Crash. Not much. It's like, "If all these guys are correct, how come the market hasn't collapsed yet?" Bears sound convincing, but reality has been different - so far.
8 ) Lucky Bear: Believed to be extinct. Unknown.
9 ) Angry Bear: Is hopping mad at the outrageous P/E for EBAY. Incredulous about multi-billion market caps for 'blue sky' startups. Rants about optical, biotech, fuel-cells, and other passing fads. Makes a lot of noise, but hasn't put too much money at risk yet. Deep down, this bear senses that as insane as this market is, no amount of hectoring will change it.
10 ) Frustrated Bear: Thinks the market is overvalued, but not quite sure by how much. Tends to be long for the most part - or in low yield but safe instruments. Wants to participate in a bear feast, but frankly can't see the right opportunity. Thinks puts are always too expensive. Will not do much even in a bear market. Watches the situation closely, but feels that it's too risky going short.
11 ) CNBC Bear: Has called for a market decline as far back as anyone can remember. Is usually a guest on CNBC for the bulls to make fun of. Issues standard remarks about being in cash, or to lighten up on stocks that have gained 400% over the last year. Everybody ignores the advice.
12 ) Wall $treet Week Bear: Currently banished from the show. The last one seen there, Gail Dudak, was tossed from the Elves Index in 1999. Plots Louis Rukeyser's demise.
13 ) Sleeping Bear: Figures it's not worth gaming this market. Hibernates until a recession shows up.
14 ) Rabid Bear: 'Knows' the market will drop starting tomorrow. Goes whole hog against the market. Indescriminately buys puts, and shorts momentum stocks while they are rising. Approximate life span for this species has been nine months.
15 ) Naked Bear: Confident of limited upside in selected stocks. A more aggressive ( and foolish - if you can believe it ) version of Rabid Bear. Writes naked calls during bull markets. Is destined for bankruptcy in short order. Will lose shirt, shorts, and everything else.
16 ) Half-hearted Bear: Variant of Trading Bear. Talks the bear talk, but deep down isn't fully committed. Lacks conviction. It's the same problem only in reverse ) that perma-bears have when they try to be bullish. Will play the short side, but tends to put more money on the table for upside moves.
17 ) Bear Rug: Is disgusted with Wall Street and isn't an active trader. No money left. Got badly burned shortly after one crisis ( Asia, Russia, LTCM, or '98 tech slump ) by betting on further declines, only to see the Federal Reserve step in and save the day. May have also lost big during the wild ride of Nov99-Mar00. Would like to have lunch with Julian Robertson someday. Writes angry letters to Alan Greenspan. Refuses to watch CNBC anymore. Uses business section of newspaper to train dog or line birdcage.
18 ) Happy Bear: Cheerful. Loves life. Believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. Thinks Maria Bartiromo is terrific. Currently on medication under a doctor's supervision.
19 ) Bogus Bear: Is a bull - no doubt about it. Shows up on bearish message boards and raises hell until chased away by the system administrator.
20 ) Bear-to-be: Currently a bull. Will remain so until bear market is fully established. Then it will be to late. Follows the crowd. Pays attention to Peter Lynch, Joe Battipaglia, and Henry Blodget. Does whatever Abby Cohen advises.
21 ) Loudmouth Bear: Bearish for a number of reasons: Technical Analysis, Fundamentals, Market Mood. Doesn't really matter. Hangs out on Yahoo boards and engages in fiery debates with believers in the New Era. POSTS IN ALL CAPS.
22 ) Bear Cub: Lifetime bearish orientation being shaped by parents' gloomy estimation of the markets. That will be a great asset or a great liability - depending on what actually happens when the critter reaches adulthood. Can't wait to be old enough to open a brokerage account and short QCOM ( or its equivalent ) .
23 ) Sweating Bear: Terrified that another melt-up is in the offing. Only a couple of days earlier had committed substantial funds to the short side. Now very worried due to 'froth talk' about pending mergers, money-on-the-sidelines coming back, 401k inflows, Fed easing, any speech by Greenspan, or BLS reports. Closes all short positions at market open. In the past, this has often been the right thing to do, but is developing a stimulus/reaction response that may be a handicap in the future.
24 ) Relieved Bear: One horrible short play cancelled out by another that went well. Wonders why bother at all with this nonsense. That evening, goes out with friends or family for a good time. Might have a few drinks as well.
25 ) Smiling Bear: Feeling pretty good about recent successes. Bought some out-of-the-money puts a week before Company X warned, and has a ten-bagger as a result. Looking for another firm w
Title : 40 Bear Types
1 ) Apocalypse Bear: Thinks global economy will collapse due to total charade organized and controlled by The Powers That Be. Predicts massive inflation followed by repudiation of fiat currency, or worldwide deflation take your pick ) . Looks to political events for clues about the future. Was hoping Y2K would be more eventful than it turned out to be. Holds gold stocks and some bear funds. Isn't quite ready to commit to shorting or buying puts. Waiting for confirmation. In the meantime has stocked up on food and water, 'just in case it gets real bad'.
2 ) Credit Crisis Bear: Reads complicated essays about esoteric financial issues. Concerned about low savings rates, trade deficits, the yield curve, bond market hijinks, bank overextension, and the money supply. Has seen so much negative data over the past four years, it's hard to detect any real signal anymore. Tends to play with broad market instruments as opposed to individual stocks. Hasn't lost shirt.
3 ) Weary Bear: Expects high P/E stocks to come back to earth when fundamentals reassert themselves. Once was an enthusiastic bear ( say in 1997, 8, and 9 ) . Has witnessed the market stall and dip, only to blast off again, several times. Significantly burned with worthless puts or short squeezes more than once. Has developed an exquisite sense for the market. Won't get fooled again. Mostly in the market for revenge. Pops in and out of bear funds and occasional put/shorts. Is waiting for the right time, at which time will pile on and ride the market down. Is not expecting a crash, but wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
4 ) Trading Bear: Looks for stocks to bounce around but generally head south. Feels that Technical Analysis is the way to go most of the time. Has been a survivor ( unlike some vanquished Weary Bears ) because of nimble trading and tight stops. Daytrades or week-trades. Has had some successes, but also some losses in the last three years. Is likely to short-cover a little too soon if the Big One hits.
5 ) New Bear: Just showed up and doesn't understand why old-time bears listed above ) aren't gung-ho about an immediate market decline. Hasn't experienced a snap-back rally. Hasn't owned a double-inverse Nasdaq fund, but thinks it's attractive. Hasn't shorted or held puts, been in the money, only to have some meatball analyst talk up stocks prior to expiration Friday. May be in for some rude surprises. Soon will choose what kind of bear to be. Many become Trading Bears. Others split into Apocalypse, Credit Crisis, and Weary Bear categories.
6 ) Smart Bear: Avoided the NASDAQ for the most part. Managed to short those stocks which were part of the 'stealth' bear market. Most likely a fundamentalist who also was aware of the great risks in betting against a momentum sector. Moves in for gains only after clear and convincing evidence appears for earnings problems and lack of market enthusiasm.
7 ) Information Overload Bear: Has read Fleckenstein and Tice for years. Paid attention to Barton Biggs, Alan Abelson, and Jim Grant. Knows all the arguments regarding market overvaluation. Owns a dog-eared copy of The Great Crash. Not much. It's like, "If all these guys are correct, how come the market hasn't collapsed yet?" Bears sound convincing, but reality has been different - so far.
8 ) Lucky Bear: Believed to be extinct. Unknown.
9 ) Angry Bear: Is hopping mad at the outrageous P/E for EBAY. Incredulous about multi-billion market caps for 'blue sky' startups. Rants about optical, biotech, fuel-cells, and other passing fads. Makes a lot of noise, but hasn't put too much money at risk yet. Deep down, this bear senses that as insane as this market is, no amount of hectoring will change it.
10 ) Frustrated Bear: Thinks the market is overvalued, but not quite sure by how much. Tends to be long for the most part - or in low yield but safe instruments. Wants to participate in a bear feast, but frankly can't see the right opportunity. Thinks puts are always too expensive. Will not do much even in a bear market. Watches the situation closely, but feels that it's too risky going short.
11 ) CNBC Bear: Has called for a market decline as far back as anyone can remember. Is usually a guest on CNBC for the bulls to make fun of. Issues standard remarks about being in cash, or to lighten up on stocks that have gained 400% over the last year. Everybody ignores the advice.
12 ) Wall $treet Week Bear: Currently banished from the show. The last one seen there, Gail Dudak, was tossed from the Elves Index in 1999. Plots Louis Rukeyser's demise.
13 ) Sleeping Bear: Figures it's not worth gaming this market. Hibernates until a recession shows up.
14 ) Rabid Bear: 'Knows' the market will drop starting tomorrow. Goes whole hog against the market. Indescriminately buys puts, and shorts momentum stocks while they are rising. Approximate life span for this species has been nine months.
15 ) Naked Bear: Confident of limited upside in selected stocks. A more aggressive ( and foolish - if you can believe it ) version of Rabid Bear. Writes naked calls during bull markets. Is destined for bankruptcy in short order. Will lose shirt, shorts, and everything else.
16 ) Half-hearted Bear: Variant of Trading Bear. Talks the bear talk, but deep down isn't fully committed. Lacks conviction. It's the same problem only in reverse ) that perma-bears have when they try to be bullish. Will play the short side, but tends to put more money on the table for upside moves.
17 ) Bear Rug: Is disgusted with Wall Street and isn't an active trader. No money left. Got badly burned shortly after one crisis ( Asia, Russia, LTCM, or '98 tech slump ) by betting on further declines, only to see the Federal Reserve step in and save the day. May have also lost big during the wild ride of Nov99-Mar00. Would like to have lunch with Julian Robertson someday. Writes angry letters to Alan Greenspan. Refuses to watch CNBC anymore. Uses business section of newspaper to train dog or line birdcage.
18 ) Happy Bear: Cheerful. Loves life. Believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. Thinks Maria Bartiromo is terrific. Currently on medication under a doctor's supervision.
19 ) Bogus Bear: Is a bull - no doubt about it. Shows up on bearish message boards and raises hell until chased away by the system administrator.
20 ) Bear-to-be: Currently a bull. Will remain so until bear market is fully established. Then it will be to late. Follows the crowd. Pays attention to Peter Lynch, Joe Battipaglia, and Henry Blodget. Does whatever Abby Cohen advises.
21 ) Loudmouth Bear: Bearish for a number of reasons: Technical Analysis, Fundamentals, Market Mood. Doesn't really matter. Hangs out on Yahoo boards and engages in fiery debates with believers in the New Era. POSTS IN ALL CAPS.
22 ) Bear Cub: Lifetime bearish orientation being shaped by parents' gloomy estimation of the markets. That will be a great asset or a great liability - depending on what actually happens when the critter reaches adulthood. Can't wait to be old enough to open a brokerage account and short QCOM ( or its equivalent ) .
23 ) Sweating Bear: Terrified that another melt-up is in the offing. Only a couple of days earlier had committed substantial funds to the short side. Now very worried due to 'froth talk' about pending mergers, money-on-the-sidelines coming back, 401k inflows, Fed easing, any speech by Greenspan, or BLS reports. Closes all short positions at market open. In the past, this has often been the right thing to do, but is developing a stimulus/reaction response that may be a handicap in the future.
24 ) Relieved Bear: One horrible short play cancelled out by another that went well. Wonders why bother at all with this nonsense. That evening, goes out with friends or family for a good time. Might have a few drinks as well.
25 ) Smiling Bear: Feeling pretty good about recent successes. Bought some out-of-the-money puts a week before Company X warned, and has a ten-bagger as a result. Looking for another firm w