TotalStock
18.12.2000, 17:01
Hi Leute, hier mal eine Zusammenfassung der 2000 Winners...
Für jemanden der das Orginal liebt, ist auch übersichtlicher....
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/supermodels/1216020.html
Will 2000 All-Stars Win in 2001?
By Jon D. Markman
Managing Editor, MSN MoneyCentral
12/15/00 6:28 PM ET
Former Cincinnati Reds great Pete Rose once said he'd "go through hell in a gasoline suit to keep playing baseball." Nicknamed Charlie Hustle, he amassed more 200-hit seasons than any other player in history -- and he also still holds the major league records for games played and total hits, even though he hung up his spikes back in 1986.
Rose's baseball career ended in disgrace three years later with a gambling suspension, but during his prime he was still the kind of all-star you'd like all of your stocks to emulate. He showed up to play hard every single day, and in the rare event that he slumped at the plate for a few games in a row, he almost always rebounded with a consecutive-days hitting streak that left pitchers confounded and fans cheering.
Gritty determination is the Rose trait I most sought in candidates for the SuperModels 2000 All-Star Team that I'm naming this week. In a year that will be remembered for its nightmarish volatility, the 20 stocks I want to honor were the Kings of Consistency, not just Sultans of Swat. Up in every quarter, and supported by waves of buyers every time they paused or dipped, these were securities that labored all year to put a lie to rumors of a 2000 bear market. For these names, this year was pure bull.
Because it's not fair to judge a giant company's stock performance against much smaller peers, I divided my all-star team into three leagues by market capitalization: large, medium and small.
The Stats
To make the squad, stocks had to advance in every quarter of the year and they had to trade on Dec. 9 within 10% of their 52-week high. The large caps had to meet a minimum year-to-date performance bar of 100%, while the mid-caps and small-caps had to be up at least 200%.
Why bother to look retrospectively at the past year's success stories? For one thing, it's a lot more fun than writing another column about what a terrible 12 months it's been for most stocks. Second, it provides a way to focus on what's undeniably working at a time when little seems to be working. Third, it provides a way to think about the sorts of stocks that might end up on the list next year. Fourth, it's one more reminder that there's life after tech stocks. And most importantly, it looks like some of my all-stars might well have at least a few more months of outperformance left in them -- if not an entire year.
It probably won't surprise you to learn that there are no technology stocks on my team. It's topped by 12 health care-related names, and also has four financial-services names, three from the energy sector and one from consumer services (restaurants). Indeed, it's interesting that there is generally just one company from each vertical industry group -- confirming the winner-take-all factor that has characterized stock movement in the past decade. In the large-cap group, for instance, there's one top-ranked gas utility, one property insurer, one life insurer, one generic drug maker and one HMO. Just like, well, there was just one Pete Rose.
Let's take a closer look. (All numbers in charts are as of Dec. 9.)
Name Market Cap % Chg. YTD Industry Name
ACE Limited (ACL:NYSE - news) $10,108,547,438 161.0 Property & Casualty Insurance
Manulife Financial (MFC:NYSE - news) 12,863,375,000 110.3 Life Insurance
UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYSE - news) 19,011,789,000 122.1 Health Care Plans
Forest Laboratories (FRX:NYSE - news) 11,925,197,813 121.5 Drug Manufacturers- Other
Coastal (CGP:NYSE - news) 16,952,118,750 122.2 Oil & Gas Pipelines
Source: INSERT SOURCE
It's disorienting to look at a list of all-stars that doesn't include a networking communications or software stock, but the numbers don't lie. If I had relaxed the maximum "percent below high" to 25% from 10%, the team would have embraced Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD:Nasdaq - news), Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq - news), Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP:Nasdaq - news) and BEA Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq - news) -- but that would have defeated the point of seeking consistency. All of those tech stocks fell by 50% at least once in the past year, and some did it twice.
In contrast, the bear barely laid a glove on my five finalists this year. Forest Laboratories (FRX:NYSE - news), a profitable maker of generic prescription and nonprescription drugs, fell $24 on Aug. 9, but its partisans snapped it back up the next day. It spent the rest of the next month slightly below its 50-day moving average, but for the rest of the year it held well above support. Every dip to its 10-day moving average, in fact, was a buying opportunity.
ACE Limited (ACL:NYSE - news), a global property and casualty insurer, was flattish with a slight upward bias for the first two months of the year. But as the Nasdaq Composite plunged more than 40% from its March 9 crest above 5,000 through last Friday, ACE tripled -- a mirror image of the tech-heavy index. Every decline was shallow; it only fell below its 50-day moving average once in the period.
Likewise, natural gas explorer, electric power producer, coal miner and pipeline owner Coastal (CGP:NYSE - news) surged with both the energy and utility groups -- especially in the April 15 to May 15 period that saw the Nasdaq's first lukewarm bear market recovery. It also seldom sank below its intermediate-term support. And the story at life insurer Manulife Financial (MFC:NYSE - news) and health-maintenance organization UnitedHeatlth Group (UNH:NYSE - news) was the same. All remained in favor all year, though Manulife looks like it has the most staying power going forward -- particularly in an environment of declining interest rates, which usually favors the rate-sensitive insurers.
One last thing. Note that none of these stocks started the year as big-caps: The biggest in January was UnitedHealth, at a market cap of around $8.8 billion. It really was a great year for mid-caps in the right sectors at the right valuations.
Name Market Cap % Chg. YTD Industry Name
GelTex Pharmaceuticals (GELX:Nasdaq - news) $1,332,188,000 378.1 Drug Manufacturers- Other
Laboratory of America Holdings (LH:NYSE - news) 5,136,676,500 300.6 Medical Laboratories & Research
Cross Timbers Oil (XTO:NYSE - news) 1,656,327,000 289.1 Independent Oil & Gas
Coventry Health Care (CVTY:Nasdaq - news) 1,496,464,938 273.2 Medical Practitioners
Investors Financial Services (IFIN:Nasdaq - news) 2,456,385,000 257.6 Asset Management
LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT:Nasdaq - news) 1,360,673,438 257.2 Health Care Plans
Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI:Nasdaq - news) 1,042,877,000 249.8 Medical Laboratories & Research
Neuberger Berman (NEU:NYSE - news) 3,919,326,125 223.1 Asset Management
Oxford Health Plans (OXHP:Nasdaq - news) 3,521,340,375 222.1 Health Care Plans
Source: INSERT SOURCE
Likewise, all the members of our mid-cap all-star team started the year as small caps -- and many look like they're well on their way to the big leagues. Check out Coventry Health Care (CVTY:Nasdaq - news), for instance, which still trades at a minuscule price-to-sales ratio of 0.62 and has been growing revenues at better than 25% a year. Based in Bethesda, Md., it provides managed health care services throughout the Southeast. On a purely technical level, money flow and momentum still look fine -- as they have all year. The stock has generally stayed at or above its 50-day moving average in the course of a smooth upward move.
For a year that was so tough on stocks, it's a little curious that Neuberger Berman (NEU:NYSE - news) and Investors Financial Services (IFIN:Nasdaq - news) did so well -- as they're all about asset management. But both made t
Für jemanden der das Orginal liebt, ist auch übersichtlicher....
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/supermodels/1216020.html
Will 2000 All-Stars Win in 2001?
By Jon D. Markman
Managing Editor, MSN MoneyCentral
12/15/00 6:28 PM ET
Former Cincinnati Reds great Pete Rose once said he'd "go through hell in a gasoline suit to keep playing baseball." Nicknamed Charlie Hustle, he amassed more 200-hit seasons than any other player in history -- and he also still holds the major league records for games played and total hits, even though he hung up his spikes back in 1986.
Rose's baseball career ended in disgrace three years later with a gambling suspension, but during his prime he was still the kind of all-star you'd like all of your stocks to emulate. He showed up to play hard every single day, and in the rare event that he slumped at the plate for a few games in a row, he almost always rebounded with a consecutive-days hitting streak that left pitchers confounded and fans cheering.
Gritty determination is the Rose trait I most sought in candidates for the SuperModels 2000 All-Star Team that I'm naming this week. In a year that will be remembered for its nightmarish volatility, the 20 stocks I want to honor were the Kings of Consistency, not just Sultans of Swat. Up in every quarter, and supported by waves of buyers every time they paused or dipped, these were securities that labored all year to put a lie to rumors of a 2000 bear market. For these names, this year was pure bull.
Because it's not fair to judge a giant company's stock performance against much smaller peers, I divided my all-star team into three leagues by market capitalization: large, medium and small.
The Stats
To make the squad, stocks had to advance in every quarter of the year and they had to trade on Dec. 9 within 10% of their 52-week high. The large caps had to meet a minimum year-to-date performance bar of 100%, while the mid-caps and small-caps had to be up at least 200%.
Why bother to look retrospectively at the past year's success stories? For one thing, it's a lot more fun than writing another column about what a terrible 12 months it's been for most stocks. Second, it provides a way to focus on what's undeniably working at a time when little seems to be working. Third, it provides a way to think about the sorts of stocks that might end up on the list next year. Fourth, it's one more reminder that there's life after tech stocks. And most importantly, it looks like some of my all-stars might well have at least a few more months of outperformance left in them -- if not an entire year.
It probably won't surprise you to learn that there are no technology stocks on my team. It's topped by 12 health care-related names, and also has four financial-services names, three from the energy sector and one from consumer services (restaurants). Indeed, it's interesting that there is generally just one company from each vertical industry group -- confirming the winner-take-all factor that has characterized stock movement in the past decade. In the large-cap group, for instance, there's one top-ranked gas utility, one property insurer, one life insurer, one generic drug maker and one HMO. Just like, well, there was just one Pete Rose.
Let's take a closer look. (All numbers in charts are as of Dec. 9.)
Name Market Cap % Chg. YTD Industry Name
ACE Limited (ACL:NYSE - news) $10,108,547,438 161.0 Property & Casualty Insurance
Manulife Financial (MFC:NYSE - news) 12,863,375,000 110.3 Life Insurance
UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYSE - news) 19,011,789,000 122.1 Health Care Plans
Forest Laboratories (FRX:NYSE - news) 11,925,197,813 121.5 Drug Manufacturers- Other
Coastal (CGP:NYSE - news) 16,952,118,750 122.2 Oil & Gas Pipelines
Source: INSERT SOURCE
It's disorienting to look at a list of all-stars that doesn't include a networking communications or software stock, but the numbers don't lie. If I had relaxed the maximum "percent below high" to 25% from 10%, the team would have embraced Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD:Nasdaq - news), Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq - news), Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP:Nasdaq - news) and BEA Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq - news) -- but that would have defeated the point of seeking consistency. All of those tech stocks fell by 50% at least once in the past year, and some did it twice.
In contrast, the bear barely laid a glove on my five finalists this year. Forest Laboratories (FRX:NYSE - news), a profitable maker of generic prescription and nonprescription drugs, fell $24 on Aug. 9, but its partisans snapped it back up the next day. It spent the rest of the next month slightly below its 50-day moving average, but for the rest of the year it held well above support. Every dip to its 10-day moving average, in fact, was a buying opportunity.
ACE Limited (ACL:NYSE - news), a global property and casualty insurer, was flattish with a slight upward bias for the first two months of the year. But as the Nasdaq Composite plunged more than 40% from its March 9 crest above 5,000 through last Friday, ACE tripled -- a mirror image of the tech-heavy index. Every decline was shallow; it only fell below its 50-day moving average once in the period.
Likewise, natural gas explorer, electric power producer, coal miner and pipeline owner Coastal (CGP:NYSE - news) surged with both the energy and utility groups -- especially in the April 15 to May 15 period that saw the Nasdaq's first lukewarm bear market recovery. It also seldom sank below its intermediate-term support. And the story at life insurer Manulife Financial (MFC:NYSE - news) and health-maintenance organization UnitedHeatlth Group (UNH:NYSE - news) was the same. All remained in favor all year, though Manulife looks like it has the most staying power going forward -- particularly in an environment of declining interest rates, which usually favors the rate-sensitive insurers.
One last thing. Note that none of these stocks started the year as big-caps: The biggest in January was UnitedHealth, at a market cap of around $8.8 billion. It really was a great year for mid-caps in the right sectors at the right valuations.
Name Market Cap % Chg. YTD Industry Name
GelTex Pharmaceuticals (GELX:Nasdaq - news) $1,332,188,000 378.1 Drug Manufacturers- Other
Laboratory of America Holdings (LH:NYSE - news) 5,136,676,500 300.6 Medical Laboratories & Research
Cross Timbers Oil (XTO:NYSE - news) 1,656,327,000 289.1 Independent Oil & Gas
Coventry Health Care (CVTY:Nasdaq - news) 1,496,464,938 273.2 Medical Practitioners
Investors Financial Services (IFIN:Nasdaq - news) 2,456,385,000 257.6 Asset Management
LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT:Nasdaq - news) 1,360,673,438 257.2 Health Care Plans
Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI:Nasdaq - news) 1,042,877,000 249.8 Medical Laboratories & Research
Neuberger Berman (NEU:NYSE - news) 3,919,326,125 223.1 Asset Management
Oxford Health Plans (OXHP:Nasdaq - news) 3,521,340,375 222.1 Health Care Plans
Source: INSERT SOURCE
Likewise, all the members of our mid-cap all-star team started the year as small caps -- and many look like they're well on their way to the big leagues. Check out Coventry Health Care (CVTY:Nasdaq - news), for instance, which still trades at a minuscule price-to-sales ratio of 0.62 and has been growing revenues at better than 25% a year. Based in Bethesda, Md., it provides managed health care services throughout the Southeast. On a purely technical level, money flow and momentum still look fine -- as they have all year. The stock has generally stayed at or above its 50-day moving average in the course of a smooth upward move.
For a year that was so tough on stocks, it's a little curious that Neuberger Berman (NEU:NYSE - news) and Investors Financial Services (IFIN:Nasdaq - news) did so well -- as they're all about asset management. But both made t