Das sagten die "Profits" damals, und das sagen sie heute !!!

[Ralph]

Das Ende eines Jahres ist immer dazu angetan, Zitate und "berühmte" Aussprüche zu sammeln und erneut unter die Menschheit zu streuen.

Ich habe hier mal ein paar "treffende" Aussagen von den Herren "Analysten" .....

What They Said Then...

What They Say Now...


<u>Jeffrey Applegate, Lehman Bros. strategist
USA Today, 6/30/00</u>

“There is no end in sight for the best economic and financial market cycle in U.S. history.”

<u>Jeffrey Applegate
Reuters, 12/12/00</u>

“The market is currently undervalued. The worst is behind us.”

=====================================================

<u>Joseph Battipaglia, Gruntal analyst
SmartMoney.com, 1/31/00</u>

“The Nasdaq is not overpriced and we are not in a speculative bubble.”

<u>Joseph Battipaglia
Dow Jones Newswires, 12/4/00</u>

“This year has been hard on most investors and strategists alike.”

=====================================================

<u>Ralph Acampora, Prudential Securities analyst, predicting Nasdaq 6000
Dow Jones Newswires, 3/9/2000</u>

“The long-term bull market has many, many years left.”

<u>Ralph Acampora, commenting on recent market trends.
National Post, 12/12/00</u>

“These factors suggest that a good rally is in the offing.”

=====================================================

<u>Thomas Galvin, CSFB strategist, predicting Nasdaq to close at at 5500
USA Today, 6/30/00</u>

“Bull markets don't end because of old age or high price-earnings ratios; they end when there's a major resurgence in inflation.”

<u>Thomas Galvin
SmartMoney.com, 12/23/00</u>

“Economy and technology fundamentals will resuscitate sooner than expected.”

=====================================================

<u>Alfred Goldman, technical analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons
Chicago Tribune, 3/14/00</u>

“When the history of the market is written for 2000, I think you will find that the same lead dogs were pulling the sled at the end of the year as in the beginning.”

<u>Alfred Goldman
Reuters, 12/8/00</u>

“There's been a spike up in analysts' downward revisions to earning forecasts, which is a classic sign of a bottom.”

Fazit: Mit anderen Worten, wenn einem die "Profis" an Wall Street den "Himmel" versprechen, ist es Zeit seine Gewinne zu greifen und schleunigst das Weite zu suchen !!!

Ralph

[jani]

Man sollte einfach nicht mehr auf sie hören oder sie sogar als Kontraindikator nutzen.

Wenn ich jetzt z.B. sehe, wie sie plötzlich alle Intershop downgraden....und vorher haben sie nichts gewußt ... krieg ich die Krätze.

Vor einigen Wochen war das noch die Vorzeigefirma schlechthin u... und seit heute ist das der letzte Dreck.

Die sollten sich alle was schämen ob ihrer scheinbar ausgewürfelten Analysen. Sie sind schlechthin nichts, aber auch garnichts wert.

Grüße Jani

[McStock]

Hi!

Erstmal Glückwunsch zum neuen Design, ich hoffe die Pics da oben werden auch noch mit Links hinterlegt http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif

Zu den Analysten: Ich finde es immer wieder erstaunlich, was für Empörungswellen nach einem Absturz aufwallen. Spätestens nach der im März geendeten Hausse hätte jedem klar sein müssen, daß Banken Empfehlungen mit Rücksicht auf das Privatportfolio der jeweiligen Bank aussprechen. Denkt Ihr, sonst würde gratis eine Kaufempfehlung für Poet mit Kursziel 200 Euro auf Euren Monitor schweben? Nee, jeder ist sich selbst der Nächste. Hoffentlich haben es nun auch die letzten Anleger begriffen...

Grüße

McStock

[Brigitte]

December 31, 2000

How Did So Many Get It So Wrong?

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

Of all the rude awakenings that the bear market in stocks has brought to investors,
perhaps the most jarring has been the realization of how woefully wrong Wall
Street's research analysts have been this year on the stocks they follow. While the
market sank to its worst performance in more than a decade, many of those analysts
kept right on smiling and saying "buy."

How can so many who are paid so much to scrutinize companies have blown it so
spectacularly for their investor customers?

The answer lies in a subtle but significant change in the way Wall Street analysts
do their work - and how they are rewarded for it. That shift, which has brought
riches and stardom to many securities analysts, has cost investors billions of
dollars in losses.

The fact is, although brokerage firm stock gurus are still called analysts, their
day-to- day pursuits involve much less analysis and much more salesmanship than
ever before.

"The competition for investing banking business is so keen that analysts' sell
recommendations on stocks of banking clients or potential banking clients are very
rare," said Arthur Levitt, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
"Whether this is an actual or perceived conflict, clearly, in the minds of many
institutional buyers, brokerage firm analysis has diminished credibility." Robert
A. Olstein, a mutual fund manager with 32 years of experience analyzing companies'
financial results, agrees. He said analysts today are more like racetrack touts
than sharp- penciled researchers.

"What passes for research on Wall Street today is shocking to me," Mr. Olstein
said. "Instead of providing investors with the kind of analysis that would have
kept them from marching over the cliff, analysts prodded them forward by inventing
new valuation criteria for stocks that had no basis in reality and no standards of
good practice." (Internet analysts, for example, have cited visits to a Web site as
a reason for optimism. But, Mr. Olstein said, "Investors can't take page views to
the bank.")

No one, of course, can predict what stocks will do tomorrow, much less next year;
but Wall Street's analysts are supposed to help investors judge the attractiveness
of companies' shares. Investors look to analysts to advise them on whether to buy
or sell a stock at its current price, given its near- term business prospects.

Until the mid-1990's, that is how most analysts approached their work. Today, there
is virtually no such thing as a sell recommendation from Wall Street analysts. Of
the 8,000 recommendations made by analysts covering the companies in the Standard &
Poor's 500-stock index, only 29 now are sells, according to
Zacks Investment Research in Chicago. That's less than one- half of 1 percent. On
the other hand, "strong buy" recommendations number 214.

Analysts have long been known for unrelenting optimism about the companies they
cover. But many investing veterans say that the quality of Wall Street research has
sunk to new lows. That decline, they say, is the result of shifting economics in
the brokerage business that has pushed many researchers to put their firms'
relationships with the companies they follow ahead of investors.

The commissions charged by Wall Street firms to their institutional and individual
customers for trading stocks are one factor. These fees were much higher in the
1970's and 1980's, perhaps 10 cents a share on trades then versus a penny or less
now. Because analysts' recommendations helped generate trades and commissions,
research departments paid for themselves. More important, an analyst who uncovered
a time bomb ticking away within a company's financial statements and who advised
his customers to sell its shares made an important contribution to his firm in
commissions those sales generated. In short, analysts were rewarded for doing good,
hard digging.

But as commissions declined, Wall Street firms looked elsewhere for ways to cover
the costs of research.

The lucrative area of investment banking was an obvious choice. Analysts soon began
going on sales calls for their firms, which were competing for stock underwritings,
debt offerings and other investment banking deals from corporations. In this world,
negative research reports carried a cost, not a benefit.

The result, money managers say, is that the traditional role of analyst as adviser
to investors has been severely compromised. The increasingly close relationships
analysts have with corporate executives has led many of them to be gulled by
managements intent on keeping up the prices of their stocks.

"Research analysts have become either touts for their firm's corporate finance
departments or the distribution system for the party line of the companies they
follow," said Stefan D. Abrams, chief investment officer for asset allocation at
the Trust Company of the West in Manhattan. "Not only are they not doing the
research, they have totally lost track of equity values. And the customer who
followed the analyst's advice is paying the price."

For many investors, that price keeps going up. In the past few months, as former
stock market favorites crashed to earth, many top analysts remained maddeningly
upbeat all the way down.

Consider Mary Meeker, the analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter who became known as
the Queen of the Internet for her prognostications on e-commerce companies like
Amazon.com and Priceline. In 1999, as Internet stocks soared and new companies were
taken public in droves, Ms. Meeker made $15 million, according to news reports.

Now that Internet stocks are in pieces on the ground, she has become decidedly less
vocal - but no less optimistic. In her reports, she still rates all 11 Internet
stocks she follows as "outperform" even though as a group they are down an average
83 percent. By comparison, the Interactive Week Internet index is down
60 percent from its recent peak. Of the 11 companies Ms. Meeker remains positive
on, 8 had securities underwritten by Morgan Stanley.

Ms. Meeker declined to comment for this article. But Ray O'Rourke, a Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter spokesman, defended the star analyst, saying that her picks had been
made for the long term. Moreover, he said, Ms. Meeker warned investors last March
that Internet stocks were volatile.

Asked about Ms. Meeker's record and whether her nonstop optimism had anything to do
with the fact that most of the companies had engaged Morgan Stanley as an
investment bank, Mr. O'Rourke said: "It is what it is. But you shouldn't be
surprised necessarily to see `outperforms' on the companies, because we've been
very vigorous on the companies we've chosen to bring public."

Anthony Noto, at Goldman, Sachs, is another Internet-stocks analyst who remained
upbeat on shares that were trading at a fraction of their former values. On Dec.
18, he lowered the ratings to "market performer" on four of the nine stocks he
follows, including the Webvan Group, an Internet grocer; Ashford.com and
eToys, two troubled e-tailers, and PlanetRX.com, an online resource for medical
products that was in danger of being delisted by the Nasdaq stock market.

The companies were downgraded after they had dropped on average 98.2 percent during
the previous 52 weeks. By contrast, the Nasdaq is down 39.3 percent this year.

Of the nine stocks Mr. Noto follows, seven had stock offerings underwritten by
Goldman, Sachs.

"Our research is driven by fundamental analysis and is not influenced by anything
else," Mr. Noto said. He went on to explain that the companies he followed had
their stock prices drop last spring not because their operations were failing, but
because market psychology had changed. He downgraded the stocks much later because
only then had it become clear through his research that the companies'

[reg]

[Matze]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, Verdana, Tahoma, ">Zitat:</font><HR>Erstmal Glückwunsch zum neuen Design, ich hoffe die Pics da oben werden auch noch mit Links hinterlegt

Zu den Analysten: Ich finde es immer wieder erstaunlich, was für Empörungswellen nach einem Absturz aufwallen.
[/quote]

Hi MCStock,
zu eins, das wird, ganz bestimmt, nur noch leichte technische Probleme mit dem ollen Server hier http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/madgo.gif http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/throwupen.gif

Zu zwei: Wieso nach, jetzt geht es doch erst richtig los mit dem abstürzen, die Daten in USA stehen auf Sturm (http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/Forum3/HTML/000574.html) und auch schon in den Sternen (http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/Forum1/HTML/000294.html) soll es stehen http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif

@Ralph: Beim nächsten Update werde ich einen Filter für " und ' in die Themenüberschriften einbauen, O.K.? Dann verschwindet nämlich dieser JavaScript Fehler endlich bei vielen Beiträgen (das setzt nämlich die Bookmark-Funktion ausser Kraft http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif ), und auf die Gänsefüschen kommt es doch nun wirklich nicht an, oder?

Matze

[Sascha]

Die Börse, das unbekannte Wesen. Man geht hin, um schnell ein paar Euros abzuzocken. Zur schnellen Renditegewinnung ist es wirklich gut geeignet ..... für Leute, die sich täglich (wenn nicht gar beruflich) damit auseinandersetzten. Nun braucht man natürlich noch die Lemminge, die den ganzen Spaß finanzieren. Und da kommt der Kleinanleger ins Spiel ..... http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif
He Leute, die Analysten wollen auch nur das, war ihr wollt: Das Geld anderer Leute!!! Da muß man einfach Sch.... von sich geben. Auf glaubwürdige Art und Weise kann man ja auch nicht an der Börse spekulieren.

Exor

[Silke]

Hi Exor,

logo Deine Aussage unterschreibe ich voll und ganz. Das Schlimme an der Geschichte - es entpuppt sich erst im nachhinein als Lüge. Zum Zeitpunkt der Empfehlungen geht man noch von der Ehrlichkeit des Menschen aus.

Aber wie heißt ein Lied "Mann muß ein Schwein sein auf dieser Welt" http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif - es bewahrheitet sich mal wieder.

good luck
MM

[Sascha]

Na, das Problem sehe ich eher darin, daß man nicht rechtzeitig die rosa Brille abgesetzt hat. Es wurde seit Ende 99 eine Wahrnung ausgesprochen. Demnach wäre seit Mitte 00 ein Rückgang zu erwarten gewesen. Der hat sich dann (wohl extra für die Nachzügler und die, die mit harten Zahlen wie der einsetztenden Rezessionsphase in USA nix anzufangen wissen) noch ein paar Monate rausgeschoben. So und nun: Ein herzliches Willkommen in der Realität! Ich warte schon seit Monaten auf Euch!!!
Wer long ging hat doch dann das System nicht verstanden. Rein/raus gilt doch schon seit September!!!

Nicht, daß es heißt, ich unke. Eigentlich wiederhole ich nur die Kommentare von WiWi's und natürlich auch Eure Bemerkungen. Daher erscheint es mir befremdlich, wenn man das Problem erkannt hat und nicht dementsprechend handelt.

Exor

[Sascha]

Heda, MM!

Mann muß Schwein sein....???? Frau darf es aber auch, wenn sie ihre Mücken zusammenhalten will http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif .

Exor

[Silke]

http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif das war natürlich ein Schreibfehler meinerseits http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif ! (kannste jetzt glauben oder auch net http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif)

cu
MM

[Ralph]

Da ganz oben von Ralph Acampora die Rede ist, findet ihr nachstehend mal seine aktuelle Einschätzung zu den Märkten.


April 27, 2001 10:35 AM ET

U.S. Stock Market Outlook

Near-Term

Prices as of close on 04/26/2001

We are very impressed with the market's recent hesitation/rally reaction. As a result we will continue to present lists of stocks which we believe are attractive. Later today we will release the second such listing for the week. You can access these attractive buy ideas in the "Research Section" of Online Account Access at PrudentialSecurities.com. Look under "Search Equity Research", then click on "Advanced Search", and then look for "Analysts - Acampora".

Intermediate-term levels to watch if selling gets out of hand:

Dow Jones: 9106 (see below)
The NASDAQ Composite: 1619.
SOX Index : 453.85.
S&P 500 levels: 1081.
Sentiment: Bulls at 44.7%, but must fall to at least 40% (5-yr. low is 31.9%) to show rising bullish potential.

See below for our investment ideas:

Applied Materials (AMAT-50.84, rated 'ACCUMULATE', by Prudential Securities Equity Research)* Further consolidation anticipated; 46-55 range.

Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL-24.69, rated 'ACCUMULATE', by Prudential Securities Equity Research)* Uptrend support at 19.80.

Intergraph (INGR-12.27, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research) Uptrend support at 9.70.

Circuit City Stores Karmax (KMX-9.83, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research). Trader's support at 8.60.

Cummins Engine Company (CUM-40.54, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research). Uptrend support at 36.

Tricon Global Restaurants (YUM-43.52, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research). Uptrend support at 40.00.

WorldCom Inc. (WCOM-19.74, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research)* Trader's support at 17.20.

Waste Mgt. Inc. (WMI- 24.55, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research). Key support at 22.25.

Longs Drug Stores (LDG-29.62, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research). Uptrend support at 28.50.

Current Deletions:

None Today

Intermediate-Term

The market's low in late March and its subsequent rally in April has given us enough of an opportunity, we believe, to trade with some aggressive activity. The big question is whether the advance can carry above major overhead supply in the market's key indices. Initially one can support a good advance but, in our opinion, the real outcome will not be evident until after this advance runs out of steam. A subsequent decline should, in our belief, materialize and result in a wide trading range that will be manifest over the next several months. Stock selection, we believe, will be key.

A "quality rally" will require, in our view, that the following averages must break above their respective levels (listed directly below):


The DJIA must takeout the 10,859 level.
The Nasdaq Composite needs to close above 2257.
The SOX Index has to vault the 763 area.
Major Averages: Primary and Secondary parameters

Dow Jones Industrial Average Primary Support =9934.35 intra-day low (04/12/01)
Secondary Support = 9,106.54 intra-day low (03/22/01)
Primary Resistance = 10,859.50 intra-day low (03/08/01)
Secondary Resistance = 11,028.00 intra-day high (01/24/01)

Standard and Poor’s 500 Primary Support =1,157.73 intra-day low (04/12/01)
Secondary Support = 1081.19 intra-day low (3/22/01)
Primary Resistance =1,272.76 intra-day peak (02/27/01)
Secondary Resistance = 1,383.37 intra-day peak (01/31/01)

Nasdaq Composite Primary Support- 1869.34 intra-day low (04/17/01)
Secondary Support = 1619.58 intra-day low (04/04/01)
Primary Resistance = 2256.72 intra-day high (3/06/01)
Secondary Resistance = 2593.09 intra-day high (2/15/01)

Russell 2000 Primary Support = 447.45 intra-day low (04/12/01)
Secondary Support = 419 70 intra-day low (03/22/00)
Primary Resistance =485.50 intra-day high (03/07/01)
Secondary Resistance = 515.22 intra-day high (01/31/01)

Long-Term

We believe that during the March/April period the market made a good near-to intermediate-term low. It is too early for us to label this bottom as the final low. More time and more price action is needed in order for us to say that the ultimate low is in place. Thus expect a wide trading range, and hopefully improved relative performance in many sectors--this, in our belief, will create clarity for the longer-term outlook. In our view, stock selection is the best way to play the longer term.

Source: Bridge Data Service
====================================================

Ralph

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph,

gerade wollte ich das mal anbringen mit dem Vorwegnehmen der Märkte bis zum tatsächlichen Earningslow.

Die Börse nimmt die Earingslows ca. 3-6 Monate im Voraus vorweg... allerdings kann keiner sagen ob die Lows in Q3 gesehen werden, auch richtig.

Also wenn's im Q3, allerdings meist das schlechteste Quartal, und Q4 nichts positives zur Gewinnentwicklung der Unternehmen zu vermelden gibt, wird’s wohl ziemlich rau zugehen.

Was mir derzeit Sorgen bereitet ist, daß wenn irgendwelche News die Kurse belasten werden und der Markt runter geht, bin ich der Überzeugung das diesesmal die LONG Positionierten nicht lange den Kursverlusten zuschauen und die Leute quasi nasse Seife in den Händen halten und flutsch schmeißen die alle Wertpapiere aufs Parket.

So einen Mitte Januar 2001 bis Ende April 2001 Effekt werden die nicht noch mal aussitzen, da bin ich mir ganz sicher.

Also der NASDAQ hat jetzt 4 hin und her Tage hinter sich was einen Ausbruch aus der Konsolidierung auslösen sollte, die Richtung ist für mich derzeit unklar.

Wird nächste Woche spannend.

[Ralph]

TS,

mit einem Satz kann man es glaube ich sagen "Wir haben Konsolidierungsbedarf und dabei wird sich das Potential sowohl nach oben als auch unten entscheiden"

Ralph, gar nicht so schlecht drauf !

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph, habe die Tage gehört es soll nun auch bei uns HedgeFont Zertifikate geben und spätestens wenn die Commerzbank ein solches Zertifikat... ähnlich, Biotech, Wireless, Linux, Logistik rausbringt ist der Hype definitiv in spätestens ein paar Tagen oder Wochen gelaufen, ein sicherer Kontraindikator. Muß mal bei Comdi schauen.

[Silke]

Jani ich werd Dich nie vergessen!!!


In Gedanken an Dich
silke