Inktomi warnt

[Silke]

Wednesday January 3, 4:01 pm Eastern Time
Press Release
Inktomi Announces Revised Revenue and Earnings Outlook
Slowing Economy Impacts Technology Spending, Long-Term Strengths of Business Remain Intact
FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 3, 2001--Inktomi Corp. (NASDAQ:INKT - news), developer of scalable Internet infrastructure software, today announced that revenue and earnings for its first quarter ended December 31, 2000, will be below the company's prior expectations provided during its earnings conference call on October 26, 2000.

Revenue for the first quarter is now expected to be in a range of $80 to $81 million, representing an increase of 121 to 124 percent over the same quarter last year. The company expects to report pro forma diluted earnings per share in a range of break-even to $0.01 per share for the December 2000 quarter.

Actual results for the quarter ended December 31, 2000 and information on the company's expectations for fiscal year 2001 will be reported on January 18, 2001.

``The current conditions in the U.S. capital markets and the broader economy have resulted in a slowdown in infrastructure spending. Accordingly, we are adjusting our estimates for the current quarter,'' said David Peterschmidt, president and chief executive officer of Inktomi. ``While our business will be affected by macro-economic conditions in the near-term, we are confident in the long-term outlook for our infrastructure products and services. We believe we have the management, products and financial focus to foster long-term benefits for our shareholders and customers worldwide.''

Inktomi will hold a conference call and an audio webcast at 1:45 p.m. PST (4:45 p.m. EST) today with David Peterschmidt, president and chief executive officer, and Jerry Kennelly, chief financial officer, to discuss additional details of the revised outlook. The webcast can be accessed at www.inktomi.com/webcast. (http://www.inktomi.com/webcast.)

[Ralph]

Fed Who? Inktomi Plunges on Earnings Warning

By George Mannes
Senior Writer
1/3/01 4:55 PM ET

Maybe Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq - news) should start writing its earnings estimates with a pencil instead of pen and ... well, you get the idea.

The Internet infrastructure company said at the market's close Wednesday that revenue and earnings for its first fiscal quarter ended Dec. 31 would fall short of previous expectations, and that the company is revising its outlook for the current fiscal quarter. The shortfall -- which Inktomi blamed on a slowdown in infrastructure spending resulting from U.S. capital market conditions and the broader economy -- comes one day after Robertson Stephens analyst Dane Lewis's gloomy forecasts about Internet infrastructure spending sent Inktomi and other tech stocks tumbling.

Buoyed by the Fed's surprise rate cut, Inktomi jumped 27% Wednesday to close at $18.50. After the warning, however, the stock was quoted about $3 lower on Island. ....wie gewonnen , so zerronnen ! .... das wird bei vielen anderen auch noch passieren !

Inktomi says revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 will amount to $80 million to $81 million, below the $89 million figure expected by analysts surveyed by First Call. Earnings, Inktomi says, will range between break-even and a penny a share, down from the 24-analyst estimate of 3 cents a share. The revisions indicate that Inktomi's fortunes have weakened substantially in two months, because Inktomi gave guidance on the first quarter in late October.

Inktomi says it will supply information on the company's expectations for fiscal year 2001 when it reports first-quarter results Jan. 18.

"While our business will be affected by macroeconomic conditions in the near term, we are confident in the long-term outlook for our infrastructure products and services," says a statement by CEO David Peterschmidt.
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Ralph

[Ralph]

Und wenn man glaubt, es kann nicht mehr sschlimmer werden, dann kommt von irgendwoher ein Zug herangerast, der das ganze noch schlimmer macht !


Inktomi's Story May Be the Best Antidote for Tech Optimism

By Adam Lashinsky
Silicon Valley Columnist
4/3/01 7:00 AM ET

Yes, it can get worse. For at least three months now, there's been a general assumption that things had gotten as bad as they could get. It turns out those were the assumptions of people whose worldviews and life experiences didn't include visions of what "worse than bad" looks like.

Software maker Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq - news - boards), clearly as good as any a poster child for the high-multiple Internet-stock era, gave a vivid illustration late Monday of just how ugly the picture can get. Remember, there is no guarantee that the picture will be much prettier soon, or ever.

You may recall all the bytes spilled here exactly a month ago suggesting that for a company publicly hitting the reset button, Inktomi might be a wee bit overvalued at $1.5 billion. The stock recently had closed at $11.44, down from its early 2000 high of $241.50. At the time, shares of Inktomi were worth nearly 300 times Wall Street's forecasts for calendar 2001 pro forma earnings (the kind that don't include noncash and one-time expenses), and almost five times revenue forecasts.

Well, even the most optimistic tech-stock investor now understands that just because a stock is down 95%, it's not necessarily cheap. Shares of Inktomi, which makes software that helps Web site operators speed their delivery of data to viewers, fell to $6.22 Monday on no particular news. After telling investors Monday evening that revenues for the March quarter will be between $36 million and $38 million -- 43% less than previously expected -- the shares fell in after-hours trading to about $4.70. That's within 20 cents or so of Inktomi's IPO offering price of $4.50 in 1998.

Inktomi also said it will lose between 23 cents and 25 cents per share on a pro forma basis in the March quarter alone. Because that doesn't include one-time charges, presumably it also doesn't include the expenses of dismissing 250 employees, about 25% of Inktomi's workforce.

Despite the gloomy forecasts, Wall Street still hadn't given up on Inktomi before Monday. Before the 15-minute conference call Inktomi hosted after the markets closed, analysts polled by Multex.com still expected 2001 revenues of $298.1 million. Taking an unscientific 43% whack out of the next three quarters of Inktomi's revenues would yield calendar 2001 sales of $170 million, down 37% over the previous calendar year. That would give Inktomi a price-to-forward sales ratio of 3.5, definitely progress over its inflated value a month ago, but still suspect for a former growth company that's not growing. Mature, profitable companies often trade for between one and two times trailing sales.

The news at Inktomi is so gloomy that the once hype-happy management team couldn't even be encouraged to be optimistic by its fans on Wall Street. Bear Stearns analyst Robert Fagin, who not so long ago saw a floor in Inktomi's shares somewhere above $17, asked if visibility might improve once Inktomi's software embedded into hardware sold by Compaq (CPQ:NYSE - news - boards), Hewlett-Packard (HWP:NYSE - news - boards) and 3Com (COMS:Nasdaq - news - boards) began shipping. "On the visibility front, there just isn't any," responded Inktomi CEO David Peterschmidt. "It'll be three to four months of them having any product shipping before we have any visibility."

What's more, Inktomi declined to provide balance sheet information, guidance for the rest of the year or details on when its cost reductions will begin hitting the bottom line. Peterschmidt did note that days sales outstanding (a measure of how quickly customers are paying their bills) and deferred revenues (a measure of products sold but not yet recognized for accounting purposes) would be "negatively affected." But he said the company would have no details until it reports full results April 19. That's 12 days of painful pondering on those crucial balance sheet issues.

Peterschmidt said the economic climate had declined significantly since Inktomi first warned on Jan. 18 that the quarter would stink. He said there's a good chance the economic softness is extending to Asia as well. "This is the most severe quarter in technology I've ever seen," he said.

This clearly is a tough climate for every technology company. But there's one element still missing -- from the self-analysis of what's gone wrong -- from companies like Inktomi that are blaming problems on the economy. It's that even when the economy improves, it's an open-ended question if their businesses will return as well. Inktomi acknowledges that because there are no new Internet portals, it is reliant on growth at existing portals to sell software targeted at that market. Most of its business previously came from telecommunications carriers, a label not best repeated in polite company nowadays. One analyst, after ascertaining that Inktomi closed no big deals in the quarter, wondered if that meant some big deals could be in the offing later in the year. Replied Peterschmidt: "It's hard to even say that right now."

Peterschmidt concluded that "as long as the economic climate remains uncertain," it will be difficult for Inktomi to achieve operating profits. Remember, Inktomi bragged about its being profitable before the dot-com bubble burst, at least excluding special items. But a company that makes money in an upturn but loses gobs when the hype fades sounds worse than an industrial company in a down cycle. At least you know people will want steel and autos when the economy begins humming again.

Ralph