Byron Wien: erst schockt er die Märkte ....

[Ralph]

.... mit seinen 10 Ereignissen in 2001 (Unruhe in Deutschland und USA etc.) .... heute dann stellt er seine Aktien in 2001 vor !

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Wien Throws Cold Water on Rally

On January 4, at the New York Society of Security Analysts, Byron Wien, the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter strategist, threw cold water on the New Year's nascent rally.
"(Tuesday's) rally represented the hope that the old days were coming back, but they aren't," said the curmudgeon. "For technology stocks, there's still more attrition ahead."

As to yesterday's 50 basis point rate cut, Wien only harrumphed. "Alan Greenspan did what he did because he had to do something bold. Every living American thought the Fed was going to cut January 31. By cutting yesterday, Greenspan made his point without any political overtones."

But that doesn't mean the market is going up from here, not according to Wien. "People think that when the Fed cuts rates, the market goes up. Not necessarily. In 1990, the Fed cut rates ten times, and the market ended the year the same place it started."

People have short memories, Wien suggested. "Everybody remembers 1998, when the Fed cut and the market took off; the market may not necessarily go down but that doesn't mean it'll necessarily go up."

Nor did Wien find kind words for that icon of technology, the Internet. "I said last year that the Internet would meet its Waterloo. As of yet, not all the bodies have been picked up from the battlefield."

"Some big (Internet) companies don't make money and never will… Never in history has there been a business with entry as easy as the Internet."

As to bonds, Wien thought that, during 2001, bonds would once again (as in 2000) outperform stocks. "The 10-year bond will likely go to 4% and the yield curve will again be properly shaped. There is money to be made here."

And the economy: won't that rally, given the Fed cuts? No way. "We're in profits recession, if not an actual one," opined the sage from Morgan Stanley.

"The problem is, the economy is so damn overleveraged. There's been too much capital equipment spending; that's led to overcapacity. This economy will go down hard and take a long time to come back."

"We've had ten years of economic expansion...that's the longest in the history of the United States…at the end of the expansion Alan Greenspan pumped money into the system and whipped up an already overheated economy. Those excesses are not going to be resolved by one single year of a 10%-down market."

Byron is not all cold water, however. Despite predicting yet another difficult year in stocks, and an economic recession, and a decline in S&P profits, Wien said he "wouldn't be afraid to invest in stocks."

After reminding his audiences that his January picks from last year have since appreciated 46%, Wien suggested investors take a look at two groups of stocks, durable goods retailers and semiconductors. .....Droppel, da liegen wir gar nicht so falsch !

Though both sectors that were among the worst performers of the second half of 2000, Wien claimed, "That's the way to do your shopping; look for distressed merchandise."

Among the names to catch Wien's eye were, among retailers, Home Depot (NYSE: HD - Quotes, News, Boards), Lowe's (NYSE: LOW - Quotes, News, Boards), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY - Quotes, News, Boards) and Circuit City (NYSE: CC - Quotes, News, Boards).

Among semiconductor companies, the strategist favors Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM - Quotes, News, Boards) and National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM - Quotes, News, Boards); and semi-cap equipment and test measurement concerns, Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT - Quotes, News, Boards) and Teradyne (NYSE: TER - Quotes, News, Boards) .

<u>Bottom line:</u>

Like it or not, the man was right about the Internet bubble and deserves a listen.
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Ralph

[Droppel]

Hej Ralph, auch wenns nicht so ganz hier her passen will, lies das mal:


The pro: H. Giles Knight, manager of the $62 million Ark Small Cap Equity fund (ARPAX).


The pick: Kulicke and Soffa Industries (KLIC), the $899 million (sales) manufacturer of wire-bonding products used in semiconductors.


Likes: Small cars with big engines. Knight looks for small-cap companies with breakneck earnings growth. In the past, he sold off companies that failed to increase revenues by 25% or better. "This year, with a slower economy, we’re probably going to have to go back to 15% or so," he says. He also wants a strong balance sheet with no more than 25% to 30% debt. To get the right mix of 65 or so stocks, Knight doesn’t shy from moving fast himself; his average turnover rate is a lightening-fast 500%. Currently, his favorite sectors are health care (32%), finance (25%) and energy (15%).


Dislikes: Internet-based stocks. "We put the money into older economy stuff that has more earning power" he says.


Why you
should care: Sure, his fund is volatile, but the return is worth every bump. In fact, Knight—who has launched four small-cap funds over the course of his 32-year investing career—takes on 46% more risk than similar funds but earns 550% more, according to Morningstar. Over the past three years, Ark Small Cap has delivered an annualized 38.2%, earning it a spot in the rarefied top 1% of similar funds.



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Quicken.com: Your favorite stock is a company that has nose-dived from $43 to $11?
Knight: This is one name I like and will continue to add to. Kulicke and Soffa makes wire bonding equipment for the semiconductor industry. It bonds the chips to the square plate. I already have 2% of the fund in it and I will eventually have 3%. It’s my number one stock pick for 2001.
Quicken.com: Why is the stock down so much?
Knight: It has come down with all the tech stocks. This company has always been the canary in the coal mine. It gets a whiff of gas and dies or it gets fresh air and rejuvenates. We’re betting that there will be an upward movement in the semiconductor cycle. That’s why you want to buy now.

Quicken.com: What makes you think that the cycle is about to turn up again?
Knight: When we see the end of the carnage in technology, semiconductor chips aren’t going to go away. Every couple of years, we will see the lowering of the micron size to get more performance out of smaller and smaller pieces. This will continue. This company has a built-in growth engine even if the Internet isn’t going to be what we thought it was. The chips will also be in DVD television and digital photography. The concept of chips is going to continue to increase through end-use demand in new things. Every new car every year has more and more chips in it. You’re going to be able to use these chips to yell at your kitchen door.

Quicken.com: How does this company fare in terms of debt and earnings growth?
Knight: It has a good balance sheet—about 30% debt. It’s already discounting a slow down and its return on equity is 28%. That is at the peak. The earnings estimate for September 2001 is 49 cents, and it is 41 cents for 2002. But I believe that at some point later this year, the market is going to see an increase in volume for the order of these chips and the stock will take off. Even if it just earns 41 cents, that’s still good at this price. It’s trading at 22 times 2001 earnings.

Quicken.com: Any bets on when we’ll see a turnaround?
Knight: I’m going to add to the company a little later in the quarter. I think it will pick up in the second quarter. At worst you could have dead money for a while or maybe there’s some weakness down to the $8 level. But this company should come close to doubling by the end of the year.