Das 1.Mal offiziell: Dean Witter erwartet Rezession !

[Ralph]

1/08/01 11:09 AM ET

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter now officially forecasts a recession in the U.S. Economist Steve Roach sees first-half real GDP declining by 1.25% (annualized) in the first half of 2001, which lowers their U.S. growth estimates for 2001 to 1.1% from 2.5%. Market strategist Peter Canelo cut earnings growth forecast, but sees a 13% rise over the next six months and at least 19% rise over 12 months for the SPX.

Source: TheStreet.com
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Ralph

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph,

so ein Statement im März und wir hätten die qualvollen Weg in einer Woche geschaft.

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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[Silke]

Und das sagten die Centralbänker führender Nationen - also wieder unentschieden Monday January 8, 10:09 am Eastern Time
Central Bankers See Soft Economic Landing
By Alice Ratcliffe

BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - Central bankers from major countries offered an upbeat picture of the world economy on Monday and said they expected a soft landing, rather than a sharp slowdown, in the United States.

``Nobody around the table was projecting a recession either in the U.S. or the global economy,'' Bank of England Governor Eddie George told reporters after chairing a regular meeting of central bankers at the Bank for International Settlements.

Slower growth, especially in the world's biggest economy, had brought output down to more sustainable levels after the accelerated pace seen in the first half of 2000 so that a soft landing now seemed most likely.

``It may be a bit turbulent but if you look at the landing strip extending out beyond the first and second quarters, then the best bet...is that it would be a soft landing,'' George said of future prospects, especially in the United States.

He said U.S. Federal Reserve officials briefing their colleagues had emphasized that underlying improvements in productivity were real and continuing, but the slowdown was likely to return investor expectations to more realistic levels.

``The situation in Europe will be nothing like as bumpy as in the U.S.,'' he said, stressing the U.S. slowdown was in no way a disaster and expressions like a meltdown were exaggerated.

The bankers thought growth in Japan would remain slow but was unlikely to turn negative.

Most central bankers at the meeting, who included Fed Vice-Chairman Roger Ferguson, believed that the U.S. economy would grow two to three percent in 2001, roughly half the expansion seen in the first half of 2000, George said. The U.S. central bank surprised world markets last week by cutting key interest rates, and said it was ready to drop them further if needed to keep the economy from slowing too much.

It was the first easing by the Fed in over two years and followed signs U.S. growth was slowing.

[Ralph]

Trust me ! .... I am a banker ! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif

Diesen Spruch werden einige gehört haben ! ..... was die Analysten von Dean Witter jetzt kleinlaut zugegeben haben, war uns schon vor über einem halben Jahr bekannt ! ....

Na ja, jetzt gehen wir halt mal durch das Tal der Tränen ! ..... http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif

Man kann sich vielleicht dadurch trösten, das man sagt "Sind halt auch nur Menschen !" ..... wess' Brot ich ess', dess' Lied ich sing' ! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif

Ralph

[Ralph]

...... "There have been concerns that slowing business spending on technology will dampen our economic growth, going forward. More to the point, the spending freeze may damage the productivity/price-deflating pull that technology has so successfully exerted on our economy," said earnings tracker I/B/E/S in a report that came out this morning. The firm tracks corporate warnings that earnings won't be on target and it analyzes how much corporate earnings are expected to grow.

I/B/E/S research found there is plenty of room for more declines in consensus earnings forecasts and said it expects more companies to pre-announce that they will miss targets. The most recent figures for one-month percent changes in earnings outlooks for the 12 months ahead show the largest monetary decline predicted overall (negative 5.3%) since mid-1998 (negative 6.9%), when the global economy was dealing with the Asian financial crisis.

And this morning, Merrill Lynch slashed its full-year profit growth estimates for the S&P 500 to 13.8% from 15% for 2000 and to 4.1% http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek2.gif from 9% for 2001.

Source: TheStreet.com
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Ralph

[Ralph]

War es gestern noch Dean Witter, die in Erwartung einer Rezession isnd, so spricht Merrill Lynch nur von einer "verspäteten Rekation" .... na ja ! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif

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Merrill not seeing a U.S. recession

But climate not necessarily hospitable for investors

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Merrill Lynch's top economist on Tuesday lowered his estimate for U.S. growth this year, but he stopped short of calling a recession.

Bruce Steinberg, the investment bank's chief economist, said he's now expecting U.S. gross domestic product to grow 2 percent in the first half of the year, picking up to a 3.5 percent rate projected over the second half.

Economists on Wall Street have been tweaking their growth expectations in the wake of a surprise interest rate cut ordered by the Federal Reserve a week ago. Many forecasts are clustered around expectations for GDP growth of between 1 percent and 2 percent in the first half of this year.

Yet on Monday, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's Stephen Roach told clients he sees the U.S. economy sliding into a recession and dragging down global growth in the process. See recession forecast.

Delayed economic reaction

Steinberg took aim at the grim turn in the predictions among his peers, saying "while dramatic, we don't agree.

"It certainly feels like a recession to many companies whose earnings will decline, but we don't believe the economy is contracting," he said.

He's expecting the Fed's easing to spur economic growth in the second half.

On the bearish note, he told clients he's now expecting no growth for the year in operating earnings per share of the companies that make up the S&P 500. That's down from an earlier forecast for 5 percent profit growth for 2001.

The average estimate from First Call based on current estimates calls for 8.8 percent operating growth in this year's earnings per share among the S&P 500 stocks.
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Ralph