Heute steht ein sehr interessanter Artikel in der Washington Post ( http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48924-2001Jan11.html ), bezüglich der Erwartung einer weiteren 50 Basispunktesenkung Ende Januar. Dort steht, dass einige der FED-Offiziellen lieber in kleineren Schritten gehen würden (25 Basispunkte). Die jetzt anstehenden Wirtschaftsdaten (die vermutlich ihre volle "Pracht" zeigen werden) sind in den jetzigen Zinssenkungen bereits berücksichtigt (lest den Artikel).
Angesichts des deutlichen NASDAQ-Anstieges zuletzt (immerhin 18% seit dem Tief am Montag) könnte es vielleicht sein, dass man enttäsucht ist, wenn die FED nicht so zuschlägt wie erwartet ..... wollt' ich nur mal gesagt haben ! ..... die Märkte scheinen ja im Moment zu glauben, die FED steht jede Woche mit 50 Punkten auf dem Teppich.
Kann mich irren, aber seid vorsichtig !
Ralph
Producer Prices Unchanged in December
By David A. Gaffen
Staff Reporter
1/12/01 9:50 AM ET
The Producer Price Index (definition | chart | source) , a key inflation indicator, was unchanged in December compared with expectations for an increase of 0.1%.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, however was up 0.3% in December. Economists expected an increase of only 0.1%, according to Reuters.
The PPI, as the report is known, is the market's broadest measure of wholesale inflation. It measures the prices paid by producers for raw materials and goods in various stages of completion. Generally, sharp increases in producer prices can be expected to be passed on to consumers, which shows up in the broad consumer inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (definition | chart | source) . The next CPI report is scheduled for release Wednesday.
Stock futures fell and then bounced back after the release.
Food prices fell 0.4% and energy prices, which dipped in December, fell 0.7% as well. Prescription drug prices rose 0.6%, following a 1.6% decline in the prior month. Some energy measures within the report were higher, however, including residential gas, which rose 6.9%, and residential electric power, which rose 1.2% during the month. Energy prices have been much in focus since consumers are being hit with high winter heating bills.
Within the report, December's 1.7% increase for intermediate -- those between the raw material and finished product stage -- foods and feeds prices represents the largest monthly increase since a 1.9% rise in March 1997. Prices for goods in the crude stage of processing rose 8.7%, the largest increase in that category since a 9.4% rise in August 1990.
The PPI has remained subdued, especially when excluding energy prices that have risen sharply over the last year. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI is up 3.6%, compared to 3.0% in December 1999. The core rate is up 1.2% year-over-year, compared to a rate of 0.9% in December 1999.
The Federal Reserve last week shocked the market when it cut interest rates by half a percentage point ahead of its next official meeting at the end of the month. The move came after a poor Purchasing Manager's Index (definition | chart | source) , which gauges the health of the manufacturing sector, showed the economy was slowing even more quickly than believed. It was only at the Fed's last meeting that it moved its outlook on the economy to say the risks of recession now outweigh the risks of inflation. Until then, the monetary-policy making body had been most concerned about rising prices.
PPI. Actual: unchanged. Forecast: +0.1%. Previous: +0.1%. Ex- food and energy: Actual: 0.3%. Forecast: +0.1% Previous: unchanged.
Retail Sales. Actual: 0.1%. Forecast: -0.4%. Previous: -0.4%. Ex-autos: Actual: unchanged. Forecast: -0.1%. Previous: +0.2%.
************************************************************
Diese Statistik passt genau in die Erwartung einer nochmals anziehenden Inflation, bevor wir dann in einen langristigen Zyklus der Deflation einbiegen ! ...genaue Ausführungen in diesem Thread .... http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/Forum3/HTML/000498.html
Ralph
<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Ralph am 12.01.2001 editiert.]</font>
vBulletin v3.0.3, Copyright ©2000-2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.