Ralph
17.01.2001, 21:40
.... gegen Wirtschaftsabschwächung !
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Biotechs Seen Healthy, But Not Immune to Economy
By Deena Beasley
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Healthy drug sales will likely translate to solid fourth quarter earnings growth for most established biotech firms, but the sector is not immune to the general concern about the U.S. economy, analysts said.
``The sector fundamentals are good and improving. But any time you have a lot of new drugs in development there is a risk of disappointment,'' said Jan Medina, an analyst at ING Barings.
Most biotechnology companies are essentially research vehicles that lose money trying to discover and commercialize drugs. But a handful of companies -- such as Amgen Inc. (NasdaqNMhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smilewinkgrin.gifMGN - news) and Genentech Inc. (NYSEhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gifNA - news) have proven track records for earnings that are likely to continue steaming ahead, industry experts said.
A wide sampling of U.S. biotech companies shows expected average earnings growth for the quarter at a whopping 37 percent over a year ago, according to First Call/Thompson Financial, which tracks earnings estimates.
Those gains outstrip by a wide margin the 4.1 percent average growth forecast for S&P 500 companies and the 14.1 percent uptick predicted for the overall health-care sector, including big pharmaceutical companies, distributors, device makers, and health-care providers.
The Nasdaq Biotech Index (^IXB - news) , nevertheless, is trading at just under 1,000, a 38 percent drop from its all-time high of 1,620 reached last March.
Amgen is expected to report earnings in-line with estimates as the industry bellwether ups its spending ahead of an expected launch in the first half of this year for Aranesp, a longer-lasting formulation of the company's blockbuster anemia drug Epogen, that is under review by regulators.
Amgen Stock Still Shadowed By Litigation
Amgen's stock is still shadowed, however, by an unresolved patent infringement suit against rival Transkaryotic Therapies Inc. (NasdaqNM:TKTX - news), which has claimed an alternative method for making Epogen. A decision from the judge in the Boston trial, which concluded in September, has been awaited since November.
``Amgen dictates how the biotech indices move and there is still a lot of uncertainty about the litigation,'' Medina said.
Genentech's fourth-quarter sales of flagship cancer drugs Rituxan and Herceptin are expected to drive its earnings higher. The company last week announced plans to expand both its cancer and cardiology franchises through development deals with other biotechnology firms.
Genzyme General, a unit of Genzyme Corp. (NasdaqNM:GENZ - news), pre-announced last week that its fourth quarter revenues rose 17 percent from the year-earlier quarter to $203 million due largely to accelerating sales of Renagel, its product for the treatment of patients undergoing dialysis.
The Cambridge, Mass.-based firm also projected an 18 percent year-on-year increase in its 2001 revenues to more than $900 million. Genzyme said it will release full fourth quarter results on March 8.
Immunex, which makes the popular rheumatoid arthritis drug Enbrel, is expected to report higher fourth quarter earnings, but constraints on production capacity for Enbrel could cap sales projections.
Enbrel's sales rose 69 percent to $172.1 million in the third quarter of 2000, but the company said then that it might need to wait-list new patients for the drug. Immunex announced earlier this month the completion of the first phase of enrollment in the program to help ensure uninterrupted therapy for patients already using Enbrel.
Robert LeBoyer, an analyst at Leerink Swann & Co. estimated 2000 sales of Enbrel at over $651 million, growing to $870 million in 2001.
Sean Lance, chief executive officer of California-based Chiron Corp., which makes kidney cancer treatment Proleukin, said at a conference last week that the company can continue to attain 25 percent earnings growth through this year, including the dilutive effect of its $700-million acquisition last year of Pathogenesis.
Biotechs begin reporting this week, when Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen announces results late Wednesday after the market close.
Biogen is expected to report higher fourth quarter earnings, fueled by sales of its multiple sclerosis drug Avonex.
Q4 Eps Forecast Chart
2000 Est. 1999 Actual
Amgen $0.25 $0.26
Biogen $0.46 $0.44
Chiron $0.16 $0.13
Genentech $0.16 $0.09
Genzyme General $0.58 $0.52
Immunex $0.08 $0.03
Source: Reuters
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Ralph
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Biotechs Seen Healthy, But Not Immune to Economy
By Deena Beasley
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Healthy drug sales will likely translate to solid fourth quarter earnings growth for most established biotech firms, but the sector is not immune to the general concern about the U.S. economy, analysts said.
``The sector fundamentals are good and improving. But any time you have a lot of new drugs in development there is a risk of disappointment,'' said Jan Medina, an analyst at ING Barings.
Most biotechnology companies are essentially research vehicles that lose money trying to discover and commercialize drugs. But a handful of companies -- such as Amgen Inc. (NasdaqNMhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smilewinkgrin.gifMGN - news) and Genentech Inc. (NYSEhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gifNA - news) have proven track records for earnings that are likely to continue steaming ahead, industry experts said.
A wide sampling of U.S. biotech companies shows expected average earnings growth for the quarter at a whopping 37 percent over a year ago, according to First Call/Thompson Financial, which tracks earnings estimates.
Those gains outstrip by a wide margin the 4.1 percent average growth forecast for S&P 500 companies and the 14.1 percent uptick predicted for the overall health-care sector, including big pharmaceutical companies, distributors, device makers, and health-care providers.
The Nasdaq Biotech Index (^IXB - news) , nevertheless, is trading at just under 1,000, a 38 percent drop from its all-time high of 1,620 reached last March.
Amgen is expected to report earnings in-line with estimates as the industry bellwether ups its spending ahead of an expected launch in the first half of this year for Aranesp, a longer-lasting formulation of the company's blockbuster anemia drug Epogen, that is under review by regulators.
Amgen Stock Still Shadowed By Litigation
Amgen's stock is still shadowed, however, by an unresolved patent infringement suit against rival Transkaryotic Therapies Inc. (NasdaqNM:TKTX - news), which has claimed an alternative method for making Epogen. A decision from the judge in the Boston trial, which concluded in September, has been awaited since November.
``Amgen dictates how the biotech indices move and there is still a lot of uncertainty about the litigation,'' Medina said.
Genentech's fourth-quarter sales of flagship cancer drugs Rituxan and Herceptin are expected to drive its earnings higher. The company last week announced plans to expand both its cancer and cardiology franchises through development deals with other biotechnology firms.
Genzyme General, a unit of Genzyme Corp. (NasdaqNM:GENZ - news), pre-announced last week that its fourth quarter revenues rose 17 percent from the year-earlier quarter to $203 million due largely to accelerating sales of Renagel, its product for the treatment of patients undergoing dialysis.
The Cambridge, Mass.-based firm also projected an 18 percent year-on-year increase in its 2001 revenues to more than $900 million. Genzyme said it will release full fourth quarter results on March 8.
Immunex, which makes the popular rheumatoid arthritis drug Enbrel, is expected to report higher fourth quarter earnings, but constraints on production capacity for Enbrel could cap sales projections.
Enbrel's sales rose 69 percent to $172.1 million in the third quarter of 2000, but the company said then that it might need to wait-list new patients for the drug. Immunex announced earlier this month the completion of the first phase of enrollment in the program to help ensure uninterrupted therapy for patients already using Enbrel.
Robert LeBoyer, an analyst at Leerink Swann & Co. estimated 2000 sales of Enbrel at over $651 million, growing to $870 million in 2001.
Sean Lance, chief executive officer of California-based Chiron Corp., which makes kidney cancer treatment Proleukin, said at a conference last week that the company can continue to attain 25 percent earnings growth through this year, including the dilutive effect of its $700-million acquisition last year of Pathogenesis.
Biotechs begin reporting this week, when Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen announces results late Wednesday after the market close.
Biogen is expected to report higher fourth quarter earnings, fueled by sales of its multiple sclerosis drug Avonex.
Q4 Eps Forecast Chart
2000 Est. 1999 Actual
Amgen $0.25 $0.26
Biogen $0.46 $0.44
Chiron $0.16 $0.13
Genentech $0.16 $0.09
Genzyme General $0.58 $0.52
Immunex $0.08 $0.03
Source: Reuters
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Ralph