Leute, heute könnte die grössten "Bärenfalle" zuschnappen !!

[Ralph]

.... denn was da nachbörslich angerichtet wurde, spottet jeder Beschreibung !

Wir werden vermutlich deutlich tiefer eröffnen, ob wir dort schliessen werden, wage ich zu bezweifeln !

@Brigitte

Hast Du jetzt eine Vorstellung, wie ich den Vergleich mit 1991 gemeint habe ? http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/wink.gif

Ralph

[Gert]

Hi Ralph,

de Future ist auch blos noch -40 !

Gerthttp://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/wink.gif

[Silke]

yep Ralph - aber man muß auch Realist sein - sprich die Wirtschaft steht vor einer Abkühlung.

Ich werde heute versuchen den Rebound abzufischen - und dann aber wieder glattzustellen. Es ist zu früh für längere longs. Denn wir erwarten nächste Woche die aussagekräftigsten Wirtschaftsdaten in Form des Brutto-Inlands-Produkts und die werden Greenspan am meisten interessieren.

Ich bin für eine Seitwärtsbewegung auf Schlußkursbasis!

http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/smile.gif
MM

[Gast_B]

Mensch Ralph, Du gibst mir hier Rätsel auf http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif

Ok, dann rate ich einfach mal... Du bist in Bullenstimmung??

[artistin]

Hi Ralph

oute mich jetzt auch mal als eine, die völlig konfus ist mit deinen orakelhaften Worten.... Hast Du das bei Greeny abgekuckt??? http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif

Was meinst Du also und welche Werte geben Signale??? Tell us!!! http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif

grüsse
artistin http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/smile.gif

[Eric]

das ist http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/newlaugh.gif "RALPHSPEAK"! http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/newlaugh.gif

[artistin]

Kinetictraders View.....

January 26th / Friday

From Thursday: The small consolidation formed Wednesday at this point could be
construed as a triangle... watch those boundaries for an idea of where we're going to
break... I believe it's going to be important for near term direction. I thought there was a
chance we'd break out once again but instead it broke cleanly lower and we've now got a
classic uptrend break (see 60-minute). I realize with Friday's gap down we'll have already
sold off significantly from the peak, but it is a bad idea to ignore this signal and play blind
longs. The short side should prevail over the next week or two, so the plan here is to set up
trades on that side with the objective of being on board when there is more downside
continuation. The reason playing long is dangerous does have to do with the broad bias of
the market, but it also has to do with the time it takes to deal with a countertrend trade...
that is time that would be better spent thinking about how to play the short side.

I think it is interesting and worth pointing out that the results of the recent trades directly
reflect the reversing market, or in other words the non-trending action where sellers begin
meeting buyers enough to slow them down. That's been going on for a couple days now.
BEAS and JDSU stopped out for slim gains while MCDT was great for those who went with
the quick profit plan, but a stop-out for those holding for who held for a possible longer run.
This makes perfect sense since NASDAQ just broke a major trend and there logically
shouldn't be upside continuation at this point. Likewise, it should now be time to find shorts
and hang on tight for a longer move.


Shorts: EMC, ITWO, JDSU, NSM, VTSS, BRCD, VRTS

A gap lower Friday morning presents a challenge...
things are different for those who got short directly on
almost any trend break (and that is usually the case
with me) but this time it snuck in the backdoor and I
don't have any positions. That's not a good habit to
get into and leads to the
take-all-signals-and-don't-question-them speech,
but I'll save it for another time.

Assuming there is a significant gap lower Friday, the
challenge is to get on the right side of the market
without being at too much risk if there is a
countertrend rally directly afterward. My plan is to
take one or two small short positions with very wide
stops to get on the right side of the market (i.e.
initially stops at or near relative highs to give them
room to make lower highs). Then, on the first
significant rally, set up a couple more low risk trades
and attempt to get in with regular size [and continue
doing so if those stop out until there is continuation
lower or until there is good reason to believe we aren't
going lower]. I'll call a 50 point NASDAQ upside
move a "significant" rally. This is a good plan even if
it doesn't work, because it reflects the assumption
that our odds of continuing lower sometime in the
near future are above average and also takes into
consideration the risk of taking a position
immediately.


grüsse
artistin http://www.abt-edv.com/Board/smilies/smile.gif

<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von artistin am 26.01.2001 editiert.]</font>