Was soll man jetzt mit Cisco machen ? Soll man sie halten ? Soll man sie verkaufen ? Soll man vielleicht gar kaufen ?
Die Beantwortung dieser Frage erfordert wohl mehr eine Auseinandersetzung mit sich selbst, als mit Cisco. Was passieren wird, ist klar ! Cisco wird nach unten marschieren, in dem Masse wie die Ertragsschätzungen nach unten marschieren.
Wer bereit ist, den Schmerz und "totes Kapital" zu ertragen, der kann sie halten. Cisco war immer ein Unternehmen, dessen Mantra es war, die Erwartungen nicht zu enttäuschen. Jetzt wo sich dies abzeichnet, stellt sich die Frage, wie die Aktionäre zur Aktien stehen werden.
Cisco ist ein Unternehmen geworden, das mehr und mehr der Zyklik unterliegt. Das bedeutet, dass die Multiples nicht mehr bei 64 zu finden sind, sondern eher bei 30-40. Dies wird die Aktie letztlich in die 20er befördern.
Wer den Schmerz ertragen kann, der hält an Cisco fest. Wessen Bankkonto damit gefährdet ist, der soll auf jeden Fall verkaufen. Diese Aktie rutschte in die 30er ab, als wir hörten, dass deren Business etwas "challenging" sein würde. Jetzt wo wir es wissen, wird Cisco dieses Tief vermutlich unterschreiten.
Und John Chambers ist ja so bullish für die Zukunft .... ha, erzählt das denen die die P/E's ermitteln .... die kaufen das einem nicht ab.
Ralph
Und heute ist es abermals Cisco, die für Unruhe sorgen.
Cisco Outlook of More Concern Than Profit
By Ben Klayman
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Investors and analysts hope to learn just what Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news) Chief Executive John Chambers meant when he said business was getting ``more challenging'' when the computer networking giant reports fiscal second-quarter earnings next week.
Cisco's earnings, to be announced after the Nasdaq market closes on Tuesday, aren't expected to disappoint, but a slowing U.S. economy and curtailed customer spending have analysts more interested in the company's second-half forecast.
``It's the forward guidance these days that really scares people, so it will be interesting to see what they say about the tone of the market going forward,'' said Larry Seibert, portfolio manager with New York money manager Barrett Associates.
ANALYSTS QUESTION REVENUE FORECAST
Analysts estimate the San Jose, Calif., company will earn 19 cents a share before any one-time items, according to First Call/Thomson Financial, and post revenues of about $7.2 billion.
While the earnings forecast hasn't budged, some analysts say the revenues could be lower. Cisco has repeatedly topped analysts' consensus estimates on earnings per share by 1 cent.
Last week at an economic conference in Switzerland, Chambers said January's business was ``more challenging than we anticipated.'' That statement caught investors' attention because it followed comments earlier in January that the current quarter was ``a little bit more challenging,'' and in December, when Chambers said the slowing economy represented a ``breakaway opportunity'' for Cisco.
ING Barings analyst Tom Lauria said in a research report this week that analysts may cut their full-year earnings and revenue estimates for Cisco after Feb. 6. He believes current revenue growth estimates in the mid- to upper-50 percent range are too aggressive.
Chambers said last week the current quarter was more challenging than believed a few weeks ago. He said smaller capital budgets for its main telecom customers were causing January's business to be more challenging.
Networking stocks have tumbled in recent months on early signs of an industry slowdown. Cisco reported a 59 percent inventory build up in its quarter ended in October, citing slack demand for its products amid a weaker economy.
``It really comes down to capital spending,'' Chambers said last week. ``It's a U.S. phenomenon and almost entirely service providers.'' Cisco initially believed it was immune to the slower U.S. economy, he added.
When one of the company's biggest suppliers, communications chipmaker PMC-Sierra Inc. (NasdaqNMhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/tongue.gifMCS - news), warned of weaker than expected first-quarter earnings last week, Cisco shares were hit hard.
The stock closed off 2-3/4 to $35-1/2 in Nasdaq trading. It has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 Index by about 6 percent over the past year, and trailed such rivals as Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE:NT - news) and Juniper Networks (NasdaqNM:JNPR - news) by about 9 and 58 percent, respectively, in the same period.
Uncertainty is likely to prevail in the first half, Chambers said, noting the downturn could be over by the last six months of the year.
AWAITING GUIDANCE
Jaye Morency, portfolio manager with David L. Babson & Co., a Boston area investment firm with $60 billion in assets, said Chambers has been ratcheting down expectations in small increments. The question is whether he will continue along that path next week or lower them in a big way.
``That would send a big signal for tech stocks across the board that maybe we won't get the second-half recovery,'' she said.
A slowdown in Cisco's Internet-related growth is compounding problems related to the slowing economy, Morency added. Some analysts also worry the growth in sales to corporations may not be enough to offset the curtailed spending by Cisco's telecommunications operators.
Cisco officials remain confident in their product lineup, however, dismissing gains by rivals as having limited impact. Some on Wall Street agree.
``It's not as if somebody new was coming on the scene or a new strategy has been embarked on and is wreaking havoc on Cisco,'' said C.E. Unterberg, Towbin analyst Martin Pyykkonen.
On Wednesday, Cisco announced a slew of new networking products aimed at telecommunications service providers, as the Internet infrastructure equipment provider seeks to fend off small but fast-growing rivals like Juniper, Avici Systems (NasdaqNMhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smilewinkgrin.gifVCI - news) and Redback Networks Inc. (NasdaqNM:RBAK - news).
The products, including a series of high-speed routers for sending data, and an optical networking control box, represent Cisco's latest bid to increase its share of the market for so-called ``next-generation'' telecommunications equipment.
Such products and Cisco's track record have many believing its run isn't over yet.
``I don't think people should have 10 percent weight in the stock,'' Barrett Associates' Seibert said, ``but I'm not one of those people who think it's over for Cisco.''
************************************************************
Ralph
<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Ralph am 02.02.2001 editiert.]</font>
vBulletin v3.0.3, Copyright ©2000-2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.