SignalWatch NASDAQ Ed Downs

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute, eine neues Jahr und ein neuer Thread, von und mit unserem Ed für alle NAZ Fans...

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Monday, 1/1 for Tuesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/2
UP Through 2,500
DN Through 2,425


Modest Pull-Back...
Prepare for explosive upside action Tuesday, but don't anticipate. We will buy again at 2,500.

From yesterday's commentary, ".....Still sideways. We are maintaining our stop at 2,500, because of the consolidation (which exists) above the lower boundary of the trendline.... The NASDAQ hasn't gained as much ground as I expected it to by now, so I am a bit worried. (In the short term) I would simply trade the breaks of our short term chart points - 2,575 up and 2,525 down...."
The NASDAQ took out our medium term, protective stop at 2,500 and wandered on down to 2,460 - not deadly but I think it was prudent to exit there. If you look at the 60 Minute Chart, you can see the semblance of an upward-sloping pennant consolidation. We could continue all the way down to the lower boundary - about 2,425 before resuming our climb.

From everything I can see in this chart, 2,500 should be the "line in the sand" for the NASDAQ in the next week to ten days. If we cross it to the upside, we will go Long. I won't go Short unless we drop through key support at 2,425. For Tuesday, we have excellent chance for an explosive rally at the Open, and will want to play that in the Short Term.

Short Term NASDAQ

Trading the first break of 2,525 to the downside Friday resulted in some nice Short profits of about 75 points to the Close. Now, we want to do just the opposite. Watch for an upside break through 2,480 and go with that, holding your mental stop at 2,460. We could get a "head fake" - a rally at the Open followed by a decline through the Lows, but I doubt it. My expectation is for Tuesday to trade up from the Open, getting us back to the vicinity of the recent high at 2,600, for a 150 to 200 point day (or more).

Lots of money will be made intraday on Tuesday. Expect volatility and high volume. Watch for intraday lines to form in the 15 Minute Charts, and go with them. We will likely see 2-3 swings as the market trades back to the high (if I am right about that). If we drop through 2,460 at the Open, you have to go short again (intraday) until the trendline break to the upside occurs. I would expect that to happen before 2,425.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, I am expecting wild swings, in ever widening moves until we get to our first upside target of 2,700 which should be hit about January 11. Then, we should pull back and solidly break the line on about January 15, and then "head for the moon." The reason I believe this will happen has to do with the long trendline coming down from highs that you can see in the Daily Chart. These kinds of lines are almost always broken, solidly, and the moves on the other side of them are typically phenomenal. So, we are looking for a good entry point before the fact - an anchor - and I believe 2,500 will give that to us.

Why not just get Long and stay Long if the market is going to rally? That would probably work out too. But, on this page I have avoided losses by staying on the side of the current market direction, regardless of what "should" happen. We use short term entries and exits to manage medium term positions. This has worked well for the last two years of publishing SignalWatch.

Summary:

We are now out of our Long position and looking for the next "safe" entry point, which I believe will occur at 2,500. We are VERY likely to break this level again to the upside. I would use this level as a "fulcrum" - Long above, and Out below. Don't go Short in the medium term unless we drop through our gap entry point at 2,425. I think it is unlikely we will test that level again, but you must be prepared to act if it is.

Ed Downs



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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[Ralph]

Na, da bin ich aber gespannt, ob wir wirklich 200 Punkt eim NAS machen werden ..... möglich ist alles, aber es wird ja immer wilder ! ..... und genau diese Volatilität (10% pro Tag in einem INDEX aus 4.000 Werten) geht mir jetzt schon wieder gewaltig auf die Nerven ! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/mad.gif

Ralph

[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Ralph am 01.01.2001 editiert.]

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph, mögich ist alles, letztes Jahr am ersten Handelstag hat der NAZ auch mit +163 Punkten eröffnet um dan mit +65 zu schließen. Lege mich auf die Zahlen nicht so genau fest aber so ähnlich.

Der Shake out endet erst dann wenn die Kurse wieder "normalen" Schwankungen unterliegen, was auch immer das sein mag.

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TotalStock

[Ralph]

TS,

nur 65 Punkte bei 5.000 ist halt was anderes als 65 Punkte bei 2.500 ! ..... übrigens, über 40% der Gewinnwarnungen für's Q1/2000 kamen nach dem 01.01.2000 ! ..... interessant, oder !

Aber im Moment scheint nur das Thema Zinssenkungen zu zählen !

Ralph

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph,

jo, dachte 70% der US Konzerne haben schon gewarnt, ging diese Saison sehr früh los... aber wie ich schon sagte, Be carefull out there. Der Markt ist unberechenbar und logisch ist an der Börse nicht unbedingt alles.

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TotalStock

[Silke]

Frohes Neues ihr zwo da,

ich bin Heut wieder im Netz und muß auf jeder Ami-Seite das lesen: MAN ERWARTET NACH DEN WIRTSCHAFTSDATEN DIESER WOCHE EINE UNPLANMÄSSIGE ZINSSENKUNG!

Wichtig hierbei sind die Wirtschaftsdaten am Freitag. Danach hofft man.

Leute lassen wir es mal dahingestellt ob möglich oder net. Ich sehe aber den STOFF für eine Neue kurzfristige Rally durchaus gegeben! von 2300 auf 2540 Punkte sind wir auch aufgrund eines solchen Gerüchtes gestiegen.

Nu könnten wir m.E. durchaus kurzfristig die 2700 sehen....die Amis wollen mal wieder Erfolge und mit guten Vorsätzen ins Neue Jahr starten!

we will see

MM


<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von MaryMeeker am 02.01.2001 editiert.]</font>

[TotalStock]

Hi Mary,

hm Ed gibt genau Handlungsanweisungen und er hatte mit dem big Move gestern auch recht... wir werden Ihn glaube ich weiter watchen...

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Tuesday, 1/2 for Wednesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/3
UP Through 2,300
DN Current Trend


Continued Pull-Back...
Decline carries us to critical support at 2,300. Now, we need to see if a double bottom forms, or a consolidation drop through.

From yesterday's commentary, "From everything I can see in this chart, 2,500 should be the "line in the sand" for the NASDAQ in the next week to ten days. If we cross it to the upside, we will go Long. I won't go Short unless we drop through key support at 2,425..... Why not just get Long and stay Long if the market is going to rally? ..... on this page I have avoided losses by staying on the side of the current market direction, regardless of what "should" happen... (our philosophy is to go with the direction of the market in our trades)."
We didn't even think about crossing 2,500 today. Instead, we started down and kept going down until the Close at 2,291. We crossed our Short entry point of 2,425 mid-day and are now holding about 140 points of profit on the Short side - not what I was expecting for today, but I'll take it.

Today's continued retracement took me by surprise. Fortunately, I had posted an exit at 2,500, which was prudent based on the chart formation. So, today we were "out" and waiting for a break of a level that we didn't get. Truly an amazing day. And a great lesson in going with the market.

Short Term NASDAQ

Today was volatile, with a large move experienced on each index. As a day trader, I hope you took advantage of the opening drop ("If we drop through 2,460 at the Open, you have to go short again (intraday) until the trendline break to the upside occurs.") Watch the Open Wednesday. An opening drop should be shorted, a rally through 2,300 should be bought for a quick, intraday move - with tight stops, of course..

Medium Term NASDAQ

For Wednesday, I would watch 2,300 very carefully. This is my new "line in the sand" for the NASDAQ - Long above and Short below. Based on the pattern which formed today, we now have high odds of continuing down much lower. Why? If you look at the pennant consolidation that just formed in the NASDAQ 60 Minute Chart, you can see a center at about 2,425. With a relative high at 3,000 we have about 600 points of potential downside. Subtrace 600 from 2,425 and you get about 1,825. Again, this is NOT a prediction, just a chart measurement that we must be aware of.

Over the weekend, I indicated, "In the medium term, I am expecting wild swings, in ever widening moves until we get to our first upside target of 2,700 which should be hit about January 11." I got this date by extrapolating to the right, using the channel in the Daily Chart. Since we may now break critical support, that measurement has been nullified, and we will have to see what happens over the next two days, trading the moves around 2,300 while we observe.

Even though today was a bummer for the bulls, I still have high hopes for an eventual, strong rally. The reason I believe this will happen has to do with the long trendline coming down from highs that you can see in the Daily Chart. These kinds of lines are almost always broken, solidly, and the moves on the other side of them are typically phenomenal.

Summary:

We did not rally through our entry at 2,500 but dropped through our Short level of 2,425 instead, which means we are Short once again. For tomorrow, we are watching the 2,300 level carefully. We are already slightly below it. If we continue down, a much lower NASDAQ is possible. If we rally through 2,300 we will go Long with a stop at the same level. That would say the market favors this level for support, which would be logical based on the general formations around this level in the 60 Minute Chart.

Ed Downs




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TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Wednesday, 1/3 for Thursday's Market

Blast Off...

Major rally carries us to the upper trendline. Watch for retracement (short term).

From yesterday's commentary, "....Even though today was a bummer for the bulls, I still have high hopes for an eventual, strong rally. The reason I believe this will happen has to do with the long trendline coming down from highs that you can see in the Daily Chart. These kinds of lines are almost always broken, solidly, and the moves on the other side of them are typically phenomenal...."
Woah, pardner. Our critical support held at 2,300 - and did it ever. We were consolidating around this value, which would have probably meant a further sell-off on the NASDAQ, if Uncle Fed hadn't kicked in some firepower of its own. As we broke the top of the consolidation at 2,350 we went Long and held on for the remainder of the ride of over 300 NASDAQ points.

Obviously, this kind of event is impossible to anticipate. However, being ready with Longs and Shorts on each and every market day - ready to pull the trigger in the event of market directional news or bias, is important, and this was a great illustration of the power of such preparedness.

Short Term NASDAQ

In the Short term tomorrow, I would expect a pullback through 2,600. We may not get it. At some point, though, this market WILL retrace. They always do. Watch for it, and short into it until the bottom forms. After that go Long in anticipation of a break of 2,700. As you can see in the chart, I have our medium term stop at 2,500. This is a good short term belwether level as well.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, we closed Shorts at 2,350 and held on for the ride into the stratosphere today. Look at the 60 Minute Chart. You can see that we pushed right up to an upper trendline, which is why I think we will retrace tomorrow. May not, of course, with all the pressure that was released today. Basically, you have to get Long here. Period. After going Long, set mental stops at 2,500. If you did not go Long at the break today, you will risk 100 points at this level, but I think not being in right here is silly. Even though we will probably see a retracement, it shouldn't drop more than this value. One caveat - if we start down at the Open, wait for the intraday reversal before going Long.

Summary:

We were in grave jeopardy of a meltdown on the NASDAQ. Maybe some high powered technician advised the powers to be that they had to take a drastic measure to keep this from happening. Tough to say. We will never know what would have happened. Now that the Bull has been juiced, we have no choice but to go with it, and stay with it until something upsets the apple cart.

I feel the 2,500 stop point is a good one, and expect us to break 2,700 over the next week or so. If we do drop through 2,500 we will probably be in for another gut-wrenching trading range cycle back to the lows. Great for intraday position trading. Terrible for medium term trading. I think it's fairly safe to go Long in the medium term, based on the strength we just saw.

One caution - if we retrace back to 2,300 we will have formed an expanding triangle - an unstable bearish pattern. Stay tuned. This is going to get even MORE interesting.

Ed Downs



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TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Thursday, 1/4 for Friday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/5
UP Current Trend
DN Through 2,480


Consolidated...
Got the retracement. Could go down to 2,500 before turning up. Watch for this, or for an immediate rally. If so, set short term stops at 2,550 and hold on.

From yesterday's commentary, "....In the Short term tomorrow, I would expect a pullback through 2,600. We may not get it. At some point, though, this market WILL retrace. They always do. Watch for it, and short into it until the bottom forms. After that go Long in anticipation of a break of 2,700....."
We had a small retracement in the morning, but the real one came about noon, pulling us back a hundred points from the relative high, to 2,550. This is good. Now, we will either continue on down to 2,500 or blast off this level to the upside.

To me, the market is still behaving like it wants to rally. A retracement here is normal, which is why I expected it today. Now, we want to set a reasonable protective stop and wait for the next upward impulse, and get on board again there.

Short Term NASDAQ

For tomorrow, you can see the small consolidation forming in the 2550 to 2575 range. This pattern implies a drop is in store at the Open, to something like 2500. I have widened our medium term stop a bit, in anticipation of this. We could, however, just blast off again. If we move up through 2,575 I would go Long and hold my stop at the same level, expecting a reversal at the 2,650 zone. We could take out 2,650 on our way to 2,700 - our target on the NASDAQ right now.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, we are Long above 2,350 and watching to see if the market can hold above 2,500 for a new advance. One pattern in the 60 Minute chart does worry me a little - you can see the expanding triangle which is forming, and a nice upper trendline to base the pattern off of. If the market trades back down to the vicinity of 2,300 or 2,250 again, we will form a very unstable situation, which even the fed may not be able to fix.

We just need to be aware of the possibility of this, and be ready to exit Longs at 2,480. That will be tough, especially if you just entered Longs today. But, I think it's a prudent protective measure. If we do have to exit at this level tomorrow, I would look to get back on board at 2,500 - that's only 20 points of opportunity loss, but good insurance against a new collapse to 2,250.

Summary:

We are Long, with high hopes of a consolidation forming from 2,500 to 2,650, followed by a solid break of the blue line at 2,700. This is what I believe will happen. However, the existence of the expanding triangle in the 60 Minute has me concerned, and so I am ready to pull the "flush line" if the market drops back through 2,480. Don't think it will happen, but if it does, we will be out, and enter again on an upward crossing of 2,500.

Ed Downs



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TotalStock

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute, die Wettervorhersage für Montag...

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Saturday, 1/6 for Monday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/8
UP Through 2,425
DN Through 2,400


Expanding Triangle
We have conflicting information in the charts - expanding triangle in the 60 Minute and trendline in the Daily. The use of a fulcrum is appropriate here.

From yesterday's commentary, "..For tomorrow, you can see the small consolidation forming in the 2550 to 2575 range. This pattern implies a drop is in store at the Open, to something like 2500....."
The NASDAQ followed through on the consolidation to drop past our stop at 2,480 and on down to 2,400. As I indicated on the Dow page, this drop does not bode well for the markets in general, just two days after a major, federal interest rate cut.

If we look at the 60 Minute Chart, we can see an expanding triangle forming - a traditionally bearish pattern. So, we are now very cautious and will use a fulcrum to establish trading direction over the next few days.

Short Term NASDAQ

I think we have a good chance for a new rally through 2,425, and that's where our fulcrum is. Go long there and expect such a move to last to about 2,525 at least, and be ready to exit at that point. If we start down through 2,400 go Short immediately and hold your stop at 2,425 (the fulcrum).

Medium Term NASDAQ

It is impossible to divine medium term direction here. The chart patterns imply a further drop is in store in the short term. In the medium term, we have a nice trendline coming down from highs, implying an upside break at about 2,700. I would simply watch 2,425 and buy through this level, but be just as willing to sell the other way.

Summary:

The existence of the expanding triangle in the 60 Minute Chart still has me concerned. That is why I am taking a move general, defensive position through the use of fulcrums. It's somewhat of a "blunt instrument" but the use of the fulcrum technique has led to many profits on this page, and I believe it is prudent to use here. Nobody knows what this market is going to do right now. Nobody.

Ed Downs



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TotalStock

[Silke]

nobody knows...tja wie hat der Mensch recht!

Bin mal gespannt wie es schaut - ich zumindest bin erstmal aus dem Spiel http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif
MM

[Ralph]

Dass mittlerweile kein Mensch mehr weiss, was Sache ist, ist nur zu gut verständlich !

Aber gerade deswegen sollten wir einen klaren Kopf behalten. Ich habe gestern abend noch ein Posting vorbereitet, womit man in dem kommenden Zinszyklus eigentlich profitieren sollte .... leider war ich gestern zu müde, um es fertigzustellen .... ich werde es heute abend posten !

Vorab, es wird um amerikansiche Banken gehen .... oh Graus, Kreditprobleme und da kommt der mit Banken .... na, mal abwarten http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif

Ralph

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute, ja jetzt kommt sogar Ed ins Schleudern, auch beim Dow und Co.

TotalStock

[Silke]

Hi totalstock,

und was mich pers. sehr besorgt stimmt.Denn ein Fachmann seines Gebietes gibt eigentl. ungern zu, dass er mit seinem Latein am Ende ist...dies ist der springende Punkt!

Wie sollen wir es denn erahnen!http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/confused.gif

MM

[TotalStock]

Hi Mary,

habe mir einen NAZ-Würfel umgebaut, der jetzt genau 3 Richtungen hat: UP DOWN SIDEWAYS, ganz einfach. http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/newlaugh.gif

Ich sitze auf meinen Fingern... sowohl longs als auch shorts sind extrem gefährlich... vorallem wenn die Meiungen meine Freaks so weit auseinander klaffen, MYST hat gekauft und Ed weiß nicht ob LONG oder SHORT.

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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Monday, 1/8 for Tuesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/9
UP Through 2,450
DN Through 2,400


Expanding Triangle
Still have conflicting information. Using a fulcrum level to trade from (2,450)

From yesterday's commentary, ".... If we start down through 2,400 go Short immediately and hold your stop at 2,425 (the fulcrum)...."
In the Short term, this worked out well, until the trendline in the 15 Minute Chart formed, and took us out. In the medium term, we are at break even from today's run, and holding our fulcrum level at 2,450.

I'd like to call your attention to the 60 Minute Chart. Now, the expanding triangle is even clearer. I think we have excellent odds of a move back to the high of this pattern - about 2,650 to 2,700. If this happens, the question will be "Are we going through 2,700?" The best "ray of hope" I have tonight is the fact that a higher low formed in the 60 Minute Chart, at 2,300. That's very good. At any rate, we will cover Shorts at 2,450 and go Long, expecting the resulting momentum to carry us to the top of this channel. If that happens, watch for intraday trendline reversals for an exit point.

Short Term NASDAQ

Nice rally at day's end suggests more in store for tomorrow. While we are Short in the medium term, in the short term you could buy any upside breaks. I would prefer to wait for the 2,450 line to be crossed, and then trade the intraday move from there - it could be to the downside. Watch for trendline violations in the 5 minute charts.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, it is very difficult to tell whether the NASDAQ is going to melt down through 2,300 (as implied by the triangle consolidation) or rally through 2,700 (implied by the blue trendline). That is why I am using a fulcrum technique at this time. We will be Long above 2,450 - and are Short below.

Summary:

The existence of the expanding triangle in the 60 Minute Chart still has me concerned. That is why I am taking a move general, defensive position through the use of fulcrums. It's somewhat of a "blunt instrument" but the use of the fulcrum technique has led to many profits on this page, and I believe it is prudent to use here. Nobody knows what this market is going to do right now. Nobody.

Ed Downs



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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Tuesday, 1/9 for Wednesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/10
UP Through 2,475
DN Through 2,400


Intraday Consolidation
Consolidating around 2,450. Watch for upside break at 2,475 or drop through 2,400.

From yesterday's commentary, ".... The best "ray of hope" I have tonight is the fact that a higher low formed in the 60 Minute Chart, at 2,300. That's very good. At any rate, we will cover Shorts at 2,450 and go Long, expecting the resulting momentum to carry us to the top of this channel ...."
Today, the NASDAQ followed through to form a consolidation right around our fulcrum level - moving back and forth through 2,450 several times. Per our consolidation entry rule, which says we will go Long/Short above/below a fulcrum but then hold until the new high/low is crossed, we are now "out" and waiting for a crossing of the upper boundary of this consolidation at about 2,475.

Short Term NASDAQ

Watch 2,450 carefully. In the short term, I would buy above and sell below, and then see what happens, holding stops at the same value. Doing this, you should watch for intraday reversals using 5 Minute Bar charts.

Medium Term NASDAQ

The fact that we consolidated at the high of the previous move (even though it only lasted one day) is a good one, and the most likely scenario for tomorrow is a continuation to 2,550. We will short 2,400 if the market drops through.

Summary:

We have a good chance for a continuation to the upside tomorrow. If it fails, and the market drops through 2,400, that will indicate severe weakness, and we should go short there.

Ed Downs



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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Thursday, 1/11 for Thursday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/11
UP Through 2,475
DN Through 2,400


Widening Consolidation
Still consolidating around 2,450. Stay Long above.

NOTE: WE HAD A SERVER ISSUE LAST NIGHT WHICH PREVENTED PAGE DISPLAY. WE BELIEVE THE ISSUE HAS BEEN CORRECTED. TODAY'S POST FOLLOWS.. THANK YOU. - SWTeam.
From yesterday's commentary, "....Watch 2,450 carefully. In the short term, I would buy above and sell below, and then see what happens, holding stops at the same value. Doing this, you should watch for intraday reversals using 5 Minute Bar charts..."

Woah! Today we had three perfect moves around the 2,450 level, with beautiful trendlines in the 5 and 15 minute charts. If you are a day trader, I hope you took advantage of them (see the 15 Minute Chart).

Short Term NASDAQ

For tomorrow, I am expecting a retracement at the Open, simply because we are at an upper trendline. Watch for it and short into it for a nice, intraday move. This should happen at about 2,500 tomorrow. I would be careful buying into the rally at the Open, because of the possibility of a "head fake"

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term we are again stymied. Why? Because the pattern which is forming is sloping to the upside. Remember, trendlines are usually broken against the slope. So, when you have an upward sloping pattern, that implies a downward break is imminent. At the same time, the NASDAQ appears headed to the top of the triangle it is forming. So, the best we can do is hold Long above 2,450 and wait for the next event, getting out if the line is crossed.

Summary:

The market basically held above 2,400 today, and has a good chance to continue rallying. The upward sloping consolidation does have me a bit worried, but I think you just have to stay Long above the "fulcrum" at 2,450 and then exit if it is violated. The reason I am biased to the Long side is because of the long, blue trendline you can see in the Daily Chart. This line will eventually be broken.

Ed Downs




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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Thursday, 1/11 for Friday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/12
UP Through 2,650
DN Through 2,525


Reached Major Trendline
We have hit the trendline in the Daily Chart. Expecting a pullback, consolidation, and break, but might break right away.

From yesterday's commentary, "...the NASDAQ appears headed to the top of the triangle it is forming. So, the best we can do is hold Long above 2,450 and wait for the next event, getting out if the line is crossed... The reason I am biased to the Long side is because of the long, blue trendline you can see in the Daily Chart. This line will eventually be broken...."
Good thing we were Long above 2,450. Today we rallied 200 points, to put the index precisely at the blue trendline in the Daily Chart. Now, the "obvious" thing to expect is a retracement off this line. That is what we will be watching for tomorrow.

Short Term NASDAQ

Watch for a downside break of 2,630 and Short into it. We have a long trendline in the 5 Minute Chart (not shown) extending through this point. If we trade back through to the upside (and consolidate) you must cover there and then wait for the ultimate upside break.

We have many charts that look weak tonight, and the "way to bet" is that we will see a pullback tomorrow. I am expecting a move back to the 2,575 zone, followed by a consolidation from 2,575 to 2,650 and then a final break of the "blue trendline" in the Daily Chart.

Medium Term NASDAQ

We are Long from 2,525 (the break of the recent consolidation high) and will hold unless this entry point is violated to the downside. My expectation is for a consolidation and ultimate break of 2,650 - the blue trendline boundary. Look at the Daily Chart and you can see why I am so convinced that this line is going to be broken, ushering in a new bull move, probably to 3,250. If we start down tomorrow and cross 2,525 we will exit and wait for the next low to form.

Summary:

The market basically held above 2,400 today, and has a good chance to continue rallying. The upward sloping consolidation does have me a bit worried, but I think you just have to stay Long above the "fulcrum" at 2,450 and then exit if it is violated.

Ed Downs



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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[Silke]

Hallo TS,

na dann müssen wir die 2630 im Auge behalten. Der Future der nachbörsl. noch 71 im Plus war und dann nach den ariba Zahlen auf -12 Punkte fiel verharrt zur Zeit auf 12 Pluspunkten. So standen wir auch Gestern gegen 24 Uhr.

Sprich die Europäer sind erstmal in abwartender Haltung - was sicher richtig ist!

we will see
MM

[TotalStock]

Hi Mary, hm ja also Ed ist nicht schlecht, betrachtet den Markt rein nach TA Gesichtspunkten und geht an die Tradinggeschichten emutionslos heran. Die Charts zeigen auf was möglich ist. Es ist im egal ob nun der ARBA Vorstand seine Bilanzen optisch verschönert oder nicht, interessiert nur wenn man gerade in ARBA Positionen hat.

Deshalb stelle ich Ed rein.

[Silke]

Jo und Gestern hab ich Ed ziemlich vermißt. Mach das nieeeeeeeee wieder http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/biggrin.gif

http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/wink.gif
MM

[TotalStock]

Hi Mary,

hier ist er wieder sogar für bereits Dienstag.

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Saturday, 1/13 for Monday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/15
UP Through 2,650
DN Through 2,600


Consolidating below 2,700
Excellent sign of a break. Watch for it, but don't anticipate.

NOTE: MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY. THE FOLLOWING COMMENTARY IS FOR TUESDAY'S MARKET...
From yesterday's commentary, ".... (for day tradershttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif Watch for a downside break of 2,630 and Short into it. We have a long trendline in the 5 Minute Chart (not shown) extending through this point. If we trade back through to the upside (and consolidate) you must cover there and then wait for the ultimate upside break... My expectation is for a consolidation and ultimate break of 2,650 - the blue trendline boundary. Look at the Daily Chart and you can see why I am so convinced that this line is going to be broken, ushering in a new bull move, probably to 3,250.... "

We had a nice drop at the Open, and then, as I thought might happen, we consolidated from 2,600 to 2,700, forming a triangle. (see 15 Minute Chart). This is great news, because now we have a very nice pattern to trade from Tuesday short term, and possible, an opportunity to add more Longs for the medium term.

Short Term NASDAQ

I think trading Tuesday in the short term will be easy. If we break 2,600 down, Short overextended stocks and wati for the reversal, about 2,550. If we start up, buy 2,650 and expect the move to carry another 200 points from there. In each of these cases, set your cover and sell stops at the entry point. Why? Because we have a consolidation. Short 2,600 and buy 2,650. Then, stick to those numbers for the rest of the day, even if we get "whipsawed" around them.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, we are Long from the last upside break at 2,525, and expecting the "blue trendline" to be broken very soon. The best evidence I have for this is the 60 Minute Chart. YOu can see the tight range forming a triangle at the top of the move. Now, we certainly could retrace here first - but I would not expect such a retracement to go below 2,525. If that happens, we will exit Longs and look for the next opportunity. Such a retracement will probably take us back to 2,550 before the "final push" upward.

It may seem I am biased to the Long side, and I will have to admit that, in the medium to long term, I am. My basic reason for this is the long trendline in the Daily Chart. In my experience, lines like this are usually broken hard, and then a stair step rally follows. It is especially pronounced in the Weekly Chart. I know there is a lot of "gloom and doom" out there relative to earnings, etc., but I have to go with the chart, and that's what it is telling me. If you will hold you mental stop at 2,525 your risk of being Long here is fairly low.

Summary:

The market still has a good chance to continue rallying. We are now at the blue trendline and watching to see if it will be broken - with force. We could push through and fail to the downside. If that happens, we will exit at 2,525 and then wait for the next signal. My "best guess" is we will break the line at 2,700 and begin a long, stair step rally process. But, don't go with what I think. Use the levels. They work.

Ed Downs


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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[Ralph]

Sag mal TotalStock,

kannst Du nicht auch die Dow-Analyse mit reinstellen ? ... wäre klasse ! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif

Ralph

[TotalStock]

Hi Ralph, habe es an den rechten Fleck gepostet...
http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/Forum5/HTML/000092.html alles über Dow hier weiterklicken...

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Make a good one.
TotalStock

<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von TotalStock am 15.01.2001 editiert.]</font>

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Tuesday, 1/16 for Wednesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/17
UP Through 2,650
DN Through 2,600


Still consolidating below the major line.
Excellent sign of a break. Watch for it, but don't anticipate.

From yesterday's commentary, ".... If we break 2,600 down, Short overextended stocks and wati for the reversal, about 2,550. If we start up, buy 2,650 and expect the move to carry another 200 points from there. In each of these cases, set your cover and sell stops at the entry point. Why? Because we have a consolidation. ....."
Well, interestingly enough, we stayed right within the range formed by our boundaries of 10,550 and 10,650. You can see the low just glanced off the former today. So, we were neither Long nor Short - just consolidating again. Folks, this is WONDERFUL news on the Long side.

Why do I say this? Because when a market advances and consolidates in a trading range, as this one has, it is usually preparing for a new move (up). Not every time, but definitely 70-80%. So, we have a consolidation formed from 2,575 to 2,650 for several days now, and are ready to solidly break the line at 2,625. Exciting indeed!

On the downside, we have a rally failure point at 2,575. If we cross that line, you should exit Longs and wait for the next reversal at about 2,500.

Short Term NASDAQ

Most likely, we will break 2,625 quickly. If we do, go with it and set your mental stops at 2,600 for the day. We will probably move back and forth quite a bit, but we should be good to go to the Close - IF we get this break at the open and don't fall back.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the Medium Term, we are Long at 2,525 from the last upside break, and expecting a new break of the blue trendline at 2,625.

In the medium term, I am somewhat biased to the Long side right now, because of the long trendline in the Daily Chart. In my experience, lines like this are usually broken hard, and then a stair step rally follows. It is especially pronounced in the Weekly Chart. I know there is a lot of "gloom and doom" out there relative to earnings, etc., but I have to go with the chart, and that's what it is telling me. However, if you are not already Long you need to wait for the break, and then set your mental stop to 2,600. Our current mental stop from our 2,525 entry is the same - 2,525.

Summary:

We are consolidating sideways below a key trendline - a very good sign that a break is pending. Watch for it, go with it, and set your mental stop just below (at 2,600). Once we clear 2,650 we should be good to go to the upper resistance levels, around 2,900.

Ed Downs



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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[Silke]

yep Totalstock,

den ED werden wir beherzigen. Auch er kann sich irren- kein Zweifel - aber dann gibt es tägl. neue Chancen für das Glück!

bye
MM

[Jacket]

Ed hat schon recht, wenn er von einer möglichen 2900 Nasdaq spricht. Ich werds heute halten wie Ed, buy at 2650 und SL bei 2600 Punkten, denn schließlich will man ja nix verpassen :-)

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute, das Kochrezept für heute...

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Wednesday, 1/17 for Thursday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/18
UP Through 2,700
DN Through 2,600


Big Move, Retracement
Got the break - now watching for the next impulse wave up, or a failure down through 2,600.

From yesterday's commentary, "....when a market advances and consolidates in a trading range, as this one has, it is usually preparing for a new move (up). Not every time, but definitely 70-80%. So, we have a consolidation formed from 2,575 to 2,650 for several days now, and are ready to solidly break the line at 2,625. Exciting indeed! ....."
Definitely got the big upside break today. The troublesome thing is, it didn't hold after it broke. What normally happens (after a gap like this), is a market will form a trading range - but it hasn't yet. What does that tell us? Really, it's more of a caution flag than anything right now. We are going to set our Stop Loss level at 2,600 on this index - if we cross that line something will be wrong and we need to hold off on Longs until it sorts itself out.


But, there is another factor I want to call your attention to. Look at the 60 Minute Chart. You can see the long, upper trendline which we bounced off today. This line is forming an expanding triangle. The base of the triangle is down at 2,100. If the NASDAQ is beginning another retracement leg in this formation, we definitely do NOT want to be Long and actually want to get short below 2,575.

Does this mean I think the NASDAQ is going to tank here back to 2,100? No. I really think we are going to consolidate above 2,600 and then move higher. But, if we don't you MUST exit Longs at least, and then also consider Shorts. As I say, the most likely scenario here is that we will see a consolidation above 2,575 and then a breakaway off the blue trendline in the Daily Chart. But, you have to be prepared. The way to get killed trading is to have a mindset of what "should" happen. Hold stops at 2,600. Go Short below 2,575.

Short Term NASDAQ

I would expect a solid upside break through 2,700 tomorrow. If we start down instead, I would stand aside until the upper trendline formed across peaks in the 15 Minute Chart (not shown) is broken. What I am saying is, bias your trades to the Long side, because the market has already retraced nearly 50% of the prior move. That is where it should reverse back to the upside.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, we are Long above 2,525 (from a previous break a while back) and adding to positions today on the gap above 2,625. Now, we are in a wait and see mode, watching to see if the NASDAQ is going to weaken enough to invalidate the break. That will occur at 2,600 or 2,575 (approximately). We are ready to exit there and take our loss, but ready to get back in on the next upward crossing of 2,600 OR to go Short on a push down through 2,575.

Summary:

Interesting day. I'm not too rattled by the pullback, but it does mean we are sitting on a loss from the gap open (assuming new Longs were taken on the Gap). This kind of pullback is fairly normal, and we are now at 50% of the prior move in the intraday chart, implying good potential for an upside break tomorrow. Watch 2,600. That level is key.

Ed Downs




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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute, machen wir mal wieder ein biserl Short Therm Analysis.

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Saturday, 1/20 for Monday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/22
UP Above 2,750
DN Through 2,750


Head Fake.
We had a head fake at Friday's Open. Now, looking for a retracement off the upper line. Standing by on new Longs for more information.

From yesterday's commentary, "....If we go through the top - that is, above 2,780 you could go Long, but I would wait at least 30 Minute into the session to avoid the infamous "head fake" phenomena...."
This is probably the best example of a "head fake" rally I have seen. Look at that rocket Open - 75 points off Thursday's close, only to pull back below the trendline and consolidate. If you were day trading, I hope you waited!

For the medium term, we basically got lucky Friday. Our stop (from an entry at 2,525) was 2,750. The index dropped almost exactly to this level and reversed, giving us another 20 points by day's end. So, we are still Long.

Again, the logical thing to expect is a retracement. That is why I have tightened stops up to 2,750. We will almost assuredly be taken out on this tomorrow, and will pocket the 225 points we have, waiting for the nextt upside break, which will likely occur sometime next week.

Could we just blast off the launch pad and break 2,800 tomorrow, on to 3,000? You betcha. But, given the oscillations we have seen, and the proximity to the upper resistance line (purple), odds are still high for a retracement. I prefer to take a large gain off the table at this point (with our stop) and wait for the next entry signal.

Short Term NASDAQ

In the very short term, I would expect another wild ride Monday. My "sense" is we are going to see a pretty hefty retracement off that upper (purple) trendline, back to something like 2,625. If we start down hard, especially through our medium term stop of 2,750, get Short and hold on for the first V Bottom. If we start up at the Open, I would get on board for the 50 to 100 point move before the first retracement. Again, I think it is unlikely that the market will do this Monday, but if it happens, it should be tradeable in the short term.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, we are Long from 2,525 and expecting to be taken out at the Open tomorrow. I would not add to Longs just yet - we are at the top of a resistance pattern and a long move up from Friday.. Logic dictates that we will see a retracement soon. Look to get in on the bounce from such a retracement. If you DO go Long Monday, I would just hold your mental stops at the 2,750 level, or thereabouts.

Summary:

We got the head fake rally I was afraid of, pulling back to the vicinity of the Open. This is not bad news. We are consolidating below the high, which is always a precursor to a strong upward trend. Even through I am expecting a retracement in the very short term, everything about this market says "up" to me. Look at that blue trendline in the Daily Chart. We broke it, consolidated, and are still holding strong. That's very, very good. I don't think you can go wrong if you hold mental stops at 2,750 and then look to get "in" on the retracement bounce, or wait it out another day.

Ed Downs

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Make a good one.
TotalStock

<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von TotalStock am 05.02.2001 editiert.]</font>

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Monday, 1/22 for Tuesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/23
UP Above 2,775
DN Below 2,725


Triangle Consolidation
Nice triangle formed today. We are looking for a rally tomorrow through 2,775. Be ready to short failures through 2,725 as well.

From yesterday's commentary, "....Again, the logical thing to expect is a retracement. That is why I have tightened stops up to 2,750. We will almost assuredly be taken out on this tomorrow, and will pocket the 225 points we have, waiting for the next upside break, which will likely occur sometime next week. ...."
Out! You can see the retracement today taking us out of our position, at the exact center of today's action - 2,750. That's fine. Now, however, we have a superb better picture shaping up. Look at the 15 Minute Chart. Can you see the triangle pattern I have marked (solid green lines)? This pattern suggests a powerful move to the upside, and that is what we will be looking for. The downside is equally enticing, as a break down through 2,725 will mean that this rally is NOT going to hold, and the index is likely to fall back to the big blue trendline at 2,550 before moving on. It's going to be exciting!

Short Term NASDAQ

I had a question today from a customer about our "V Bottom" reversal - as I had said to go Short until the first reversal was seen. If you look at the 15 Minute Chart, you can see the "V" forming 15 Minutes into the day - characterized by a solid reversal off a low. This is even more pronounced in the 5 Minute Chart (not shown). If you look at today's action, you can see 3 reversals, as the triangle narrowed down.

For tomorrow, watch that upper line for a break and go with it. Or, a break through the bottom. Then, set your mental stop at 2,750 and hold on. If we whipsaw through the line again (that is, cross back through 2,750 to create a loss) pull out and wait for the most recent high or low to be crossed again and go with that. This market is going to move, in my opinion, and you want to be on board.

Medium Term NASDAQ

Saturday, I indicated, "I would not add to Longs just yet - we are at the top of a resistance pattern and a long move up from Friday.. Logic dictates that we will see a retracement soon. Look to get in on the bounce from such a retracement." The time may be at hand now. As I said, we have formed a bullish pattern, and this is the "perfect" pattern for an upside break. Don't anticipate, but if it happens, you want to be Long (again) with stops at 2,750. The implied distance for an upside break is 200 points, to 2,950.

Summary:

Waiting it out today was a good idea. Now, the gun is cocked and we will see how it fares tomorrow. Use 2,750 as a fulcrum - Long above and Short below for tomorrow. This level should do us proud, if my interpretation of the pattern in the 15 Minute Chart is correct.

Ed Downs


------------------
Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute und weiter gehts im Text...#

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Sunday, 1/28 for Monday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/29
UP Through 2,800
DN Below 2,800


Expanding Triangle
Friday behaved as expected - now at 38% retracement, a warning sign.

From yesterday's commentary, "My personal bet is for a move to 2,730 quickly (a gap down open) and then, we will have to see if it "tail fakes" or not. If we start filling the gap, buy buy buy and set your stops at the low. If we continue down, through 2,730 - get short more with a cover point at 2,730. It's going to be wild."
You can see in the 15 Minute Chart that is is precisely what happened - we gapped down, formed a bottom just below 2,700 and then rallied a great distance the rest of the session. In our Intraday Alert in the morning, we indicated the buy point, which was fairly easy to see because of the gap and the fact that the market was holding after the gap let off its steam.

Now, however, we are in a quandry. Why? We have rallied to 38% Retracement of the prior move. Remember from our Gann discussions - markets move on eighths, particularly, 3/8, 4/8 and 5/8. From the low at 2,700 to the high at 2,900 each eighth is worth 25 points. So, 3/8 from the low is at 2,775. The market closed at 2,781. Close enough for me.

What usually happens at 3/8? Yep - a reversal. So, we have high odds for the NASDAQ to repel off this line at the Open and pull back. If it does not do this, and pushes through 2,800 instead we want to buy agaih. But, odds favor the retracement.

If we retrace, how far can it go? Look at the 60 Minute and Daily Charts. Can you see the blue trendline? These indicate we could pull back all the way to 2,450 or 2,500. That is how markets work - they break trendlines, oscillate around, then come back to touch the line before the "big move." This is what we want to look for Monday.

Short Term NASDAQ

In the very short term, I expect an orderly market. Draw a tight range around Friday's afternoon bars - low at 2,760 and high at 2,780 (approximately) and trade breaks of this range. Our official "fulcrum" is at 2,800. If the Open does not penetrate this line quickly, I would consider getting Short for the retracement.

Medium Term NASDAQ

We are Short from the break at 2,830 and will exit if the green line at 2,800 is crossed, using it as a fulcrum in the medium term as well. This timeframe is tough in here, as we are oscillating in a pattern which is classically bearish - an expanding triangle with a flat bottom. The caution flag is definitely on the track.

In summary:

I am cautious going into Monday's market. If we blow thorugh 2,800 to the upside, we will cover shorts and go Long there. My expectation, though, is for a push down, possibly through 2,700 and on to 2,500. If we see severe weakness this is what we should expect as the outcome. After the dust settles (assuming this happens) we should then be "good to go" to the upside for the most wonderful rallies any of us has seen in a long time. But, let's not anticipate. Don't hold Longs based on that comment. Play the levels. The market is unforgiving of cockiness. Let's use 2,800 as a fulcrum on Monday and then see where we end up and go from there.

Thanks, and good luck..

Ed Downs



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Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Monday, 1/29 for Tuesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/30
UP Current Trend
DN Through 2,675


Trading Range..
Rallied back into the range. Expect a short term retracement. Holding longs down to 2,675.

From yesterday's commentary, "....In the very short term, I expect an orderly market. Draw a tight range around Friday's afternoon bars - low at 2,760 and high at 2,780 (approximately) and trade breaks of this range."
The NASDAQ did retrace at the Open, as I feared it might. But then, it found footing and formed a tight consolidation, at which point we issued an "early Long warning" in our Intraday Alerts. The break through the short line at 2,780 cinched it for the afternoon rally. As we crossed 2,800 we closed our Shorts in the medium term (from three days ago, at 2,830).

For Tuesday, I'd like to call your attention to the 60 Minute Chart, and especially the two yellow trendlines. These form what we call an "expanding triangle", because the right side is expanded out. First the good news - the consolidation (triangles are consolidations) is forming at a center of 2,800 measured from a low of 2,300. This implies an ultimate move to 3,300. Now, the bad news: The two lows of the pattern create a flat line, which means it has a good probability of being broken to the downside.

Sorry. I know this is very similar to the Dow, and when you read the OEX you're going to get it again. We are in a mushy zone where the market is trading back and forth, and so we are left not really having a good feel for medium term direction. So, what do we do?

If you can watch the market during the day, I would generally plan on being Long or Short above/below the 2,800 line. This is roughly the center of the pattern. We have fairly high odds that this line will be crossed tomorrow, but we also have a good chance that the top of the channel, at 2,950 will be hit. So, we are Long with a stop at 2,800 (short term) and 2,675 (medium term).

Short Term NASDAQ

Again, we had a good day in the short term, going Long on Intraday Alerts early, almost exiting but then going in again at 2,780 for the ride up. Surprising strength. Now, I would trade the trendline formed across lows in the 5 Minute Chart, or the line at 2,800. I definitely would trade the Short side if we cross 2,800 down.

Medium Term NASDAQ

The medium term is mushy, as I have said. We are consolidating in a wide range, from 2,675 to 2,900. Best bet is "up from here." Why? Because of the long blue trendline in the Daily Chart. We broke it, and are consolidating above it. That's good. So, the "way to bet" is that the market is ultimately going higher. We are Long at 2,800 and I am moving our mental stop down to 2,675 in recognition of this fact (high odds of a further up move). If we drop that much, and cross that line, we should be able to make up for it on the Short side, down to 2,500.

Summary:

We have moved back up in the channel between 2,675 and 2,900, and are at 62% of the range. For this reason, we have a high probability of a retracement at the Open, but probably not past 2,800. Tomorrow will be a "trendline" day - watch for breaks of lines in the 5 Minute Charts as the index oscillates back and forth. I'm expecting to pick up 100 to 200 points tomorrow trading both directions.

Ed Downs

Make a good one.

TotalStock

&lt;font size=1&gt;[Dieser Beitrag wurde von TotalStock am 30.01.2001 editiert.]&lt;/font&gt;

<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von TotalStock am 05.02.2001 editiert.]</font>

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute,

wie immer zur Morgenstund...

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Tuesday, 1/30 for Wednesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 1/31
UP Current Trend
DN Through 2,675


Flag Consolidation
Very nice setup for tomorrow's market. Watch for the break and go with it.

From yesterday's commentary, "...If you can watch the market during the day, I would generally plan on being Long or Short above/below the 2,800 line. This is roughly the center of the pattern. We have fairly high odds that this line will be crossed tomorrow, but we also have a good chance that the top of the channel, at 2,950 will be hit. So, we are Long with a stop at 2,800 (short term) and 2,675 (medium term)....."
Nice day, all in all. We are Long above 2,800 and doing O.K. But, the really big news is in the chart pattern in the 15 Minute. Is that a setup or what? Usually, pennant or "flag" consolidations like this result in an upside break. If that happens - through 2,850 - we should see a move on to 2,950, the top of the channel. If we drop through 2,825 - the lower boundary, we will likely see a decline back to 2,775.

Short Term NASDAQ

Yep. A no-brainer. Watch that flag consolidation and go with it. If we break the upper boundary and pull back, I'd hold unless we cross back through 2,825 on the downside. Then exit, and go short there.

Medium Term NASDAQ

In the medium term, we are still undecided. Yes, the Dow was riotous today, and the NAS should follow, but you still have that flat underside of the current, triangle consolidation (marked in yellow). That worries me just a tad. Our positioning right now is to stay Long as long as 2,675 is not crossed. That's a wide margin. If it IS crossed, the NAS is likely to trade back down to 2,500.

Summary:

We did consolidate today, but not in very wide swings. Today was a "staging" day for tomorrow. Watch for the break and trade it. Odds are high we will see an upside break through 2,850, but if it fails, and drops through 2,825 that will be an equally promising short signal. In either case, set your mental stop at the center, about 2,835.



------------------
Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

Hi Leute,

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Sunday, 2/4 for Monday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 2/5
UP Through 2,700
DN Below 2,650


Back to Support, Here too.
Fell through the consolidation in the 15 Minute, as expected. Now, at critical support and watching to see which way it falls for Monday's trading.

From yesterday's commentary, "In the short term, I think we have some easy money coming tomorrow. Watch the line across lows in the 5 Minute Chart, and be ready to short any move down through 2,775 - even right at the Open. Cover at 2,785 - a tight margin. On the upside, I would hold off unless the market crosses 2,800. ...We are still in defensive mode, and the caution flag is still out there. My best sense is we are going to see a market that shakes out some bulls by moving back to 2,675 before continuing on up."
Again, this was one of those "no brainer" trades for our short term folk. We were at the top of a consolidation from 2,750 to 2,790 - and the consolidation was 50% down from the high relative to the prior range. If it started down at all, it was likely to continue to low of the wider range - 150 points away. It did. Very nice indeed.

Now, our attention is turned to the 60 Minute Chart, where we are precisely at the lower boundary of the wide consolidation. If we were in yellow alert yesterday, we are in the red zone now - at least in the medium term. Why? Because we are in danger of dropping out of the wide consolidation, which would be a consolidation failure. To clarify, we rammed on up to 2,900 and then fell back to 2,700. Since then, we formed a lower high and Friday dropped through 2,700. That's just not a very healthy pattern.

Does this mean I think the market is going to tank big-time here? No. I still think we are in a medium to long term bull, and will hold that view all the way down to 2,450. But, for the next few days, you must be acutely aware of the likelihood of a 250 point drop to the blue trendline. It is a very real possibility.

Short Term NASDAQ

I hope you took a piece out of the market Friday - that was an unbelievably profitable opportunity to the downside. We may have a similar setup for Monday, but it isn't as clear, simply because we are right at support. I'd basically do the following - Long above 2,700 and short below 2,650. You may get whipsawed, but stay in this mindset and I think you will pick up the wider move, of at least a hundred points, and likely 200.

Medium Term NASDAQ

Well, we are out in the medium term, per our rules, on the crossing of 2,675. This may have been a tad premature, since we could easily reverse back to the upside - that would be within the tolerance of the 2,675 +/- 25 point zone. So, we will go Long again at 2,700 - same as my recommendation for the short term play. My reason? I am expecting the consolidation we are seeing to fulfill itself to the upside - and break 2,900 to move on to 3,300. But, please DO NOT ANTICIPATE this and just go long. Wait for 2,700. And then, set your stop at 2,675.

In Summary:

Nice downside move Friday. Now, we want to see whether fear will grip the market for a few days, driving it down to the blue trendline. Medium to Long term, I am expecting a major bull. But, we have to play good defense in here. Nobody knows what the market is going to do, and that includes me. But, by buying and selling on the right triggers, which are 2,700 and 2,650 - we have a better than even chance of catching the next, big move.

Good luck..



------------------
Make a good one.
TotalStock

[TotalStock]

Hallo Leute, mal wieder was aus der TA Ecke...

NASDAQ Market Analysis

Updated Monday, 2/12 for Tuesday's Market

Key NASDAQ Levels for 2/13
UP Through 2,500
DN Through 2,450


Bounced Off 2,450
NASDAQ is consolidating between 2,450 and 2,500. Watching for a break of either level.

From yesterday's commentary,"...Monday, I am expecting a reversal off 2,400. If we get it, and break 2,475 at the Open I would consider early Longs with a tight stop at the low of 2,450. If we start down, go short again with a cover point at the same level, 2,450...."
Nice reversal, and our stop at 2,450 was a good one. But, we pretty much just moved sideways on this index today, neither rallying nor declining. Basically, we were setting the stage for Tuesday.

Short Term NASDAQ

We have a mixed bag for Tuesday's market. First, we did form a higher low at about 2,455. That's good. But, we are consolidating at the lows. That's bad. Now, all we can do is wait for the break. I can tell you, whichever way it breaks, you should go with it, because this market is likely to move a great deal as it gains momentum, in either direction. Why? We have a consolidation, tightly formed at a significant low. We have a measured gap in the 15 Minute Chart forecasting a low at 2,400, which we are very close to. Lots of energy here.

Medium Term NASDAQ

It is rare that I do this, but for Tuesday I am going to recommend to our NASDAQ medium term traders that you do the same as the short term folk. That is, go with the flow out of the consolidaitonin the 15 Minute Chart, up through 2,500 or down through 2,450. If you do this, set your mental stops at the opposite side. For example, going Long you will want a stop at 2,450. Now, I would suggest one more thing - make sure we have a definitive break. No piddly stuff. That is, I want to see a strong bar through 2,500 at the Open, and for the market to hold on to the gain for 30 minutes. Same for the downside.

Summary:

I still think this is a key decision point in the market - especially the NASDAQ. Stocks are cheap and nobody seems to care, because the economy has been weakened. Things go in cycles, and when you are fortunate enough to get in on the rebound before it is recognized, you can profit handsomely. A gentleman sent a nice email to me today, asking if I was "cheering" for the market... That was certainly a fair question - and it's something I really try NOT to do. I do think the NASDAQ has explosive upside potential, simply because of where it has come from. Here in Austin, we have lots of companies with real value, that have been beat to a pulp. Could they go lower? You bet they could. As the great Jesse Livermore said, "There is no stock so low that it can't go lower." So, while you will certainly detect a ray of hope in my writing for a new bull, you can be just as assured that I will go Short, with no hesitation, if we cross 2,400 to the downside.

If we do cross 2,400 we will be in trouble. Fear could set in and REALLY drive the market down. My hope is that the bargain hunters of the world will step in and initiate a rally before this happens. Stocks are cheap and that is what should happen. If it doesn't, we will officially go short for the medium term at 2,400, with 2,450 as a cover point. Hold on to your seats for Tuesday.

Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs




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Make a good one.
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