Silke
20.02.2001, 08:40
nachfolgender Bericht setzt sich auch kritisch mit den Wirtschafts- und Unternehmensdaten auseinander!
http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif
MM
Forecast looking gloomy for rest of 2001
Dawn Patrol
February 16, 2001 07:13 PM ET
by Robert Wang
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NEW YORK -- After completing seven weeks of trading for 2001, the Nasdaq Composite is now as far from 3,000 as the high-tech sector is from inspiring earnings.
3,000 is a distant memory
Except for Dec. 11, 2000, the composite has not closed above 3,000 since mid-November, which was during the Florida recount controversy. On the first trading day of 2001, the Nasdaq had its lowest close in nearly 22 months, at 2,291.86.
The Federal Reserve's surprise half-point interest rate cut on Jan. 3 probably saved the market from falling farther, but it has not sparked a long-term market rise. With major high-tech companies lowering earnings forecasts, the Nasdaq has been stuck this year in a range between 2,200 and 2,900.
Problems still afflict high tech
Earnings warnings issued by Nortel Networks (NT), Hewlett-Packard (HWP) and Dell Computer (DELL) on Thursday indicate that the high-tech sector could struggle for the rest of this year. On the news, the Nasdaq today dropped 127.53, or 5 percent, to 2,425.38.
This makes it less likely that the Nasdaq will break out of its range to the upside. However, the question is, could more of these warnings break the hearts of investors as the picture gets gloomier?
Barry Hyman, chief strategist at Weatherly Securities said, "The tech market is still on shaky ground. Every successive earnings report that we see … gets more and more detailed in its problems for the rest of the year."
Alan Ackerman, market strategist for integrated securities firm Fahnestock & Co. said, "We're in a cross current in the market which is difficult to divine. Initially, it looks like we'll see more downside pressure as we resume trading on Tuesday."
Hyman points out that the sector's inventory problems and the misallocation of capital due to the Internet boom are fundamental problems that cannot be quickly fixed.
"It just continues to show that tech investing is still troublesome. Those believing that this is the only sector in town have deluded themselves into a fantasy," he said.
Stagflation?
On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said the Producer Price Index, or the PPI, which measures wholesale prices, jumped 1.1 percent in January compared with a 0.2 percent increase in December. That's the biggest one-month increase in more than 10 years.
When volatile food and energy prices are not included, the core PPI rose 0.7 percent. Economists had widely expected the overall PPI to climb only 0.3 percent and the core rate to increase 0.1 percent.
Investors began to question whether the report would add complications to the Federal Reserve's deliberations on whether to lower interest rates and if so, how much to cut them. Cutting rates too much risks fueling inflation, but the Fed had said that economic weakness was a bigger risk.
In contrast, the Federal Reserve reported that the nation's industrial output had dropped in January while a University of Michigan survey indicated declining consumer confidence for this month.
The PPI number, though, raised the specter of stagflation, a rare condition where both inflation and economic weakness co-exist.
Analysts called the PPI number a statistical anomaly that would not affect the Consumer Price Index, which measures retail prices. That report is due out Wednesday morning.
Hyman believes there's no risk of stagflation, especially since inflation doesn't emerge without warning signs, but he said the PPI report would add to the distraction of the market.
"We've seen situations in the past where you've had one number out of line," he said. "If it's not and we're getting an inflationary trend then stagflation is the worst scenario for the equity market that one could imagine."
Fed predictions
Joe Keating, chief investment officer of the Kent Funds said if and how the Fed cuts interest rates depends on which numbers it focuses on.
"The consumer data and what's going on in the stock market would all point to the Fed cutting more and sooner. The retail sales and housing starts data would point to the Fed not doing much until its March meeting," he said. "I think when they get the employment data for February and early March, that may be the key number that determines if we get a cut between regularly scheduled meetings."
Ackerman still holds out hope of a move before the March 20 meeting.
"It would not be surprising to see the Fed lower interest rates sooner rather than later," he said. "Consumer sentiment has reached the lowest level since 1993 [so] unless the Fed makes an interest rate cut soon we're likely to see more downside pressure on the Dow and Nasdaq."
Hyman, who sees the Fed cutting rates by a half point in March, said no matter how much the Federal Reserve cuts, the fundamental problems still remain.
"The Fed can lower interest rates every day of the week and it's not going to invigorate the industry until inventory levels go down," he said.
Looking ahead
Keating believes that the Nasdaq will bounce around 2,300 to 2,600 over the next few weeks.
Hyman, who sees the Nasdaq retesting the 2,200 level, advises investors to look for buying opportunities. When asked if the worst had hit the chip gear sector, which has ties to other high-tech sectors, he said, "I don't know if we've seen the worse [but] the time to buy these companies is when they're doing poorly, not when they're doing well."
Ackerman said investors are still cautious.
"Most portfolios are playing with pain," he said. "There are few portfolios that have not been damaged in the decline with technology and telecom stocks. The only certainty is uncertainty
http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif
MM
Forecast looking gloomy for rest of 2001
Dawn Patrol
February 16, 2001 07:13 PM ET
by Robert Wang
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW YORK -- After completing seven weeks of trading for 2001, the Nasdaq Composite is now as far from 3,000 as the high-tech sector is from inspiring earnings.
3,000 is a distant memory
Except for Dec. 11, 2000, the composite has not closed above 3,000 since mid-November, which was during the Florida recount controversy. On the first trading day of 2001, the Nasdaq had its lowest close in nearly 22 months, at 2,291.86.
The Federal Reserve's surprise half-point interest rate cut on Jan. 3 probably saved the market from falling farther, but it has not sparked a long-term market rise. With major high-tech companies lowering earnings forecasts, the Nasdaq has been stuck this year in a range between 2,200 and 2,900.
Problems still afflict high tech
Earnings warnings issued by Nortel Networks (NT), Hewlett-Packard (HWP) and Dell Computer (DELL) on Thursday indicate that the high-tech sector could struggle for the rest of this year. On the news, the Nasdaq today dropped 127.53, or 5 percent, to 2,425.38.
This makes it less likely that the Nasdaq will break out of its range to the upside. However, the question is, could more of these warnings break the hearts of investors as the picture gets gloomier?
Barry Hyman, chief strategist at Weatherly Securities said, "The tech market is still on shaky ground. Every successive earnings report that we see … gets more and more detailed in its problems for the rest of the year."
Alan Ackerman, market strategist for integrated securities firm Fahnestock & Co. said, "We're in a cross current in the market which is difficult to divine. Initially, it looks like we'll see more downside pressure as we resume trading on Tuesday."
Hyman points out that the sector's inventory problems and the misallocation of capital due to the Internet boom are fundamental problems that cannot be quickly fixed.
"It just continues to show that tech investing is still troublesome. Those believing that this is the only sector in town have deluded themselves into a fantasy," he said.
Stagflation?
On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said the Producer Price Index, or the PPI, which measures wholesale prices, jumped 1.1 percent in January compared with a 0.2 percent increase in December. That's the biggest one-month increase in more than 10 years.
When volatile food and energy prices are not included, the core PPI rose 0.7 percent. Economists had widely expected the overall PPI to climb only 0.3 percent and the core rate to increase 0.1 percent.
Investors began to question whether the report would add complications to the Federal Reserve's deliberations on whether to lower interest rates and if so, how much to cut them. Cutting rates too much risks fueling inflation, but the Fed had said that economic weakness was a bigger risk.
In contrast, the Federal Reserve reported that the nation's industrial output had dropped in January while a University of Michigan survey indicated declining consumer confidence for this month.
The PPI number, though, raised the specter of stagflation, a rare condition where both inflation and economic weakness co-exist.
Analysts called the PPI number a statistical anomaly that would not affect the Consumer Price Index, which measures retail prices. That report is due out Wednesday morning.
Hyman believes there's no risk of stagflation, especially since inflation doesn't emerge without warning signs, but he said the PPI report would add to the distraction of the market.
"We've seen situations in the past where you've had one number out of line," he said. "If it's not and we're getting an inflationary trend then stagflation is the worst scenario for the equity market that one could imagine."
Fed predictions
Joe Keating, chief investment officer of the Kent Funds said if and how the Fed cuts interest rates depends on which numbers it focuses on.
"The consumer data and what's going on in the stock market would all point to the Fed cutting more and sooner. The retail sales and housing starts data would point to the Fed not doing much until its March meeting," he said. "I think when they get the employment data for February and early March, that may be the key number that determines if we get a cut between regularly scheduled meetings."
Ackerman still holds out hope of a move before the March 20 meeting.
"It would not be surprising to see the Fed lower interest rates sooner rather than later," he said. "Consumer sentiment has reached the lowest level since 1993 [so] unless the Fed makes an interest rate cut soon we're likely to see more downside pressure on the Dow and Nasdaq."
Hyman, who sees the Fed cutting rates by a half point in March, said no matter how much the Federal Reserve cuts, the fundamental problems still remain.
"The Fed can lower interest rates every day of the week and it's not going to invigorate the industry until inventory levels go down," he said.
Looking ahead
Keating believes that the Nasdaq will bounce around 2,300 to 2,600 over the next few weeks.
Hyman, who sees the Nasdaq retesting the 2,200 level, advises investors to look for buying opportunities. When asked if the worst had hit the chip gear sector, which has ties to other high-tech sectors, he said, "I don't know if we've seen the worse [but] the time to buy these companies is when they're doing poorly, not when they're doing well."
Ackerman said investors are still cautious.
"Most portfolios are playing with pain," he said. "There are few portfolios that have not been damaged in the decline with technology and telecom stocks. The only certainty is uncertainty