brocade zieht sich nicht den "Stiefel" der Ertragswarnungen an!

[Silke]

Nachfolgend ein Artikel, wonach sich der CEO von BRCD zu den Auftragsbeständen von BRCD äußert. Dieser kam bereits Gestern während des Handelsverlaufs....und konnte sich nur bedingt gut auf BRCD auswirken.

Wahrscheinlich ist dies auf die immer noch recht hohe momentane Bewertung von brocade zurückzuführen. Denn obwohl wir bereits so tief korrigierten haben wir immernoch ein KGV von 190 auf jetzigen Kurs gegenüberstehen. Recht hoch, wenn man bedenkt, daß das durschnittliche KGV des Nasi bereits unter 100 steht!

cu
MM

Brocade says computer data business strong

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2001 1:18:00 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Brocade Communications Systems Inc.BRCD, which makes switches that tie together computer data storage networks, is doing good business despite its own concerns about the economy, the chief executive said on Wednesday.

"The Brocade funnel has never been fuller, but I think there is cause for concern based on conflicting data points in the market place," CEO Greg Reyes told investors at a conference.

"We didn't lose a single piece of business last quarter, so I think we are going to continue to gain market share, as we have in the past ... (but) I think there is room for caution in this economy."

Major firms were building storage area networks, or SANs, and using Brocade switches to do so, as storage management moved to the top of information technology department budgets over the last six months, Reyes said.

"We saw SAN projects move to mainstream projects as part of the overall IT budget."

Shares of Brocade were hit with those of other storage equipment makers after Emulex Corp. EMLX, which makes hubs that are also part of storage area network infrastructure, said last week that some customers had delayed back orders and that more such delays would lead Emulex to miss earnings and revenue targets.

"I would put that in the category of a conflicting data point we are trying to get our arms around," Reyes said.

Brocade will introduce new products with administrative and security features in the fall, which will "massively raise the bar, not just on switching front," Reyes told the conference, hosted by Robertson Stephens investment bank

[KA111]

Recht hast Du , MM, BRCD sind noch deftig teuer. Charttechnisch gesehen könnten sie aber nach dem gestrigen Stick durchaus ein Swing-Trade für etwa 10 Punkte sein. Auf die Schnelle, eventuelle Profits schon in eine Auwärtsbewegung hinein mitnehmen. SL unter gestrigem Tages-Low von 48. Was meint Ihr?


Gruß

KA111

[Silke]

Hallo KA111 schön Dich mal wieder zu lesen. Seh ich ähnl. wie Du. Wir haben ja ein mordsmäßig neg. Momentum aus dem Vorletzten Tag mitgenommen - das schreit eigentl. schon nach techn. Erholung. Ebenso ich der sl sicherlich gut...denn wenn es da nach unten rauscht gibt es definitiv kein Halten mehr in Form einer Unterstützung aus dem letzten Jahr.

Bei sehr guter Nasi Verfassung könnten wir sogar evtl. das Gap schließen. Dies liegt bei 71,4$ !


Schaun wir mal

cu
MM

[Gast_B]

13:29 NT Brocade Seeks To Double Authorized Shares, Eyes Split (BRCD)

With an eye toward a potential stock split, Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) stated Thursday in a regulatory filing that it plans to seek shareholder approval at its upcoming annual meeting to double to 800 million the number of common shares the company is authorized to issue.
In a preliminary proxy filing, the computer switch maker said its board believes the authorized-share boost to be in Brocade's best interest in order to enable the company to effect additional stock splits in the future.
The company's board also believes that the availability of the additional shares will provide it with the flexibility to tackle other potential corporate purposes, such as stock offerings, stock-financed acquisitions, to establish strategic relationships and additional employee benefit plans.
Brocade commented in the filing that its board currently has no immediate plans or commitments to issue the additional shares. The company, which currently has the power to issue up to 400 million common shares, has about 222.5 million shares outstanding, with another 63.2 million shares reserved for issuance, leaving only 111.3 million shares available for future uses.
Shareholders of record as of Feb. 19 are entitled to vote on the share-boost proposal, and other measures, at the annual meeting, currently scheduled for April 4 in San Jose, Calif.

<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Brigitte am 15.02.2001 editiert.]</font>

[Silke]

was ist aus den Amis denn nur geworden. Wat denn nu - machen wir einen oder nicht?

Früher war das bei den Companies alles net so kompliziert! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif

cu
MM

[Ralph]

Brocade Tops December Quarter Estimate

By Thomas Lepri
Senior Writer
2/21/01 4:24 PM ET

Storage infrastructure firm Brocade Communications (BRCD:Nasdaq - news) reported fiscal first-quarter earnings ahead of Wall Street's expectations Thursday after the close of regular trading.

Brocade said it earned $32.5 million, or 13 cents a share, in the quarter ended Dec. 27, surpassing the First Call/Thomson Financial consensus estimate of 12 cents a share and well ahead of the tiny $7.3 million, or 3 cents a share, the company earned in the year-ago period.

Revenue totaled $165 million, a tad higher than what most analysts were looking for. The first-quarter sales figure improved upon both last year's $42.7 million and the prior-quarter's $132.1 million, marking Brocade's 10th straight quarter-over-quarter revenue increase.

Brocade, which makes fibre-channel switches that connect storage-area networks to one another, has gotten hit hard lately amid the downdraft created by Emulex's (EMLX:Nasdaq - news) warning last week that some of its large customers were delaying their orders.

Nachbörslich liegt die Aktie mit 2% im Plus.

Ralph

[Gast_B]

... und dann wegen der negativen Guidance, die später im CC bekanntgegeben wurde, noch dicke ins Minus gerutscht. Momentan bei 36 1/4, nach einem Schlusskurs von 44 11/16 http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gifhttp://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/eek.gif

[Ralph]

Dann waren die Brocade'schen Nebelscheinwerfer alles andere als ausreichend, um die Zukunft ausreichend zu beleuchten. Schade, die einst so "unstürzbare" Brocade reiht sich gnadenlos in die Reihen "gefallener Engel" ein.

Nachdem CC geht es um 19% runter bei BRCD. Und den NAS-Future geht es auch schon wieder an den Kragen ..... könnte eine eklige Eröffnung werden. ..... igitt, igitt, igitt http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/frown.gif

Ralph



<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von Ralph am 22.02.2001 editiert.]</font>

[Ralph]

Ein interessanter Bericht, warum BROCADE durchaus als funktionierendes Marktbarometer herhalten kann.

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Brocade, the Ultimate Tell of This Tape

By James J. Cramer

2/26/01 8:35 AM ET

Last week, when Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq - news - boards) broke, we saw the final round of the "one market/one multiple" thesis. The importance of this crushing of Brocade can't be overlooked by either investors or traders because the company represents the quintessential tech stock in this environment. It is, alas, the "control," if science were at all involved in stock-picking. (My regular readers know that psychology plays a much bigger role, but the pros never want to admit that because it's too "soft.") Put simply, Brocade has the best management I've seen in tech. Greg Reyes -- a fearsome, tough, honest competitor -- believes in two things: making the most money for shareholders and destroying the competition. He's the greater fighter in your corner as a shareholder, exactly who you want duking it out for you in the marketplace.

As long as this company was growing 25% sequentially, which it was supposed to be going into this year, there was no price too high to pay for it. At least I thought so. As long as we bought every dip in the stock, literally every dip, we made money. Momentum buyers knew this and took apart the shorts every single time it dipped. It always worked. This stock defined the "buy on dip" recipe for success that has turned into a recipe for disaster.

As soon as Brocade started intimating at conferences that it could no longer deliver that kind of growth, that pie-in-the-sky calculus that worked so well suddenly vanished as a "methodology" for making money in the company.

Now, though, the question becomes, what price can you pay for Brocade once the better-than-expected spell has been broken? Here's one way: Professionals take the estimates, let's say 70 cents for the year, and give it a multiple in relation to other stocks. They ask, "How much faster is Brocade growing than other stocks?" If it's growing three times faster than others, on the basis of year-over-year comparisons, then they are willing to pay three times the market multiple.

For ease, let's say it's growing three times faster and that the market's multiple as defined by the S&P 500 is 23 times earnings. That means pros would be willing to pay 69 times Brocade's earnings estimates, or maybe roughly $50 (69 times 70 for the arithmetic). With the stock currently at $40, that's not a lot of upside.

But it gets worse. Why, if everything is getting so progressively more competitive in the storage space that Brocade works in, should we have any confidence in the 70-cent estimates? In fact, knowing Reyes, wouldn't this be precisely the point at which he would want to take it to McData (MCDT:Nasdaq - news - boards) on the high end and Inrange (INRG:Nasdaq - news - boards) on the roachy low end and annihilate the competition, even if it means hurting earnings? Maybe he'll earn only 50 cents if he does that. Now his earnings would be showing little, if no growth. That means you would pay a discount multiple to the market of maybe only 20 times. That gives you a price of 10 bucks! Holy cow! Now there's some downside!

And yet that's precisely how the institutions that are now determining prices think. They don't think like individuals who tend to say, "Let's just hold it, it's bound to come back," because these institutions have seen many best-of-breed tech companies never come back once they got into these spirals.

In fact, if you know that Brocade isn't going to beat those estimates, it becomes a nonmomentum stock, one that must be sold by the likes of Firsthand and Janus, not bought. In other words, look out, a massive amount of supply could hit the market.

That's why Brocade is the ultimate tell of this tape. It's the perfect stock to measure how the high-multiple stocks will fare. And as much as I love Reyes and the company, I don't think it will fare very well while it wipes out the competition.

Should you short Brocade? Not on your life. You don't short great managements and good companies, even if you think they're too expensive. Consider that Brocade traded at $32 early last week on the news of its problems. Short-coverers and so-called bottom-fishers then took the stock right back to the $40s. You would have been crushed if you'd shorted that break.

But should you be long it? Right now that's just as dangerous as being short it. In fact, the trader in me bets this stock sees that low from last week again sometime.

Which means the best bet is to stay on the sidelines. That's how I would play it.
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Dem kann man durchaus zustimmen !

Ralph