Definitiv: KEINE Zinssenkung durch Greenspan

[Silke]

Greenspan: No quick rate cut By Rex Nutting
The Fed sees no reason to slash interest rates in an emergency move this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan indicated in testimony Wednesday. In remarks nearly identical to an optimistic account he gave two weeks ago, the central banker said that, while consumer confidence had weakened, "consumers have retained enough confidence to make longer-term commitments." A rate cut at the regularly scheduled Fed meeting on March 20 is still likely.

[Silke]

Greenspan: No emergency rate cut
'Consumers have retained enough confidence'
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 9:35 AM ET Feb 28, 2001


WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The Federal Reserve sees no reason for an immediate, emergency cut in interest rates, Chairman Alan Greenspan indicated in testimony Wednesday.

While consumer confidence has indeed weakened and "will require close scrutiny in the period ahead," he said, the data suggest "that consumers have retained enough confidence to make longer-term commitments."

Greenspan's calming testimony before the House Financial Services Committee dashes hopes of investors and analysts who were counting on the Fed to cut rates as early as this week in response to further weak economic data.

The stock market has reacted to every hiccough from the Fed and the army of economists, journalists and psychics who follow it.

The market rallied on speculation that a rate cut could come this week, then sold off on disappointment that the weak consumer confidence report on Tuesday didn't trigger a conference call from Greenspan to his colleagues about a rate cut.

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But the data have not been sufficiently alarming to require a rate cut before the regularly scheduled March 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Indeed, Greenspan said the "exceptional degree of slowing" seen in December "seemed less evident in January and February," adding one month to the assessment he gave two weeks ago.

Sentiment is nearly unanimous on Wall Street that the FOMC will cut its Federal funds target rate at the meeting from 5.5 percent, most likely to 5 percent.

As in his nearly identical testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 13, Greenspan's remarks were remarkably optimistic about the economy's potential in the long run.

"The degree of retrenchment will presumably be limited," he said.

He sang the praises of the high-technology revolution and its capacity to transform the way the economy runs, making it much more efficient and productive.

For now, however, "the retrenchment ... has yet to run its full course," he said "Even after the policy actions we took in January," he said, "the risks continue skewed toward the economy's remaining on a path inconsistent with satisfactory economic performance.

The Fed has already slashed the Fed funds rate by a full percentage point in two moves in January, including an intermeeting move on Jan. 3.

Earlier, Greenspan and other Fed officials have diagnosed the nation's economic ills as a relatively short-term inventory adjustment. While giving no end-date for the slump, he said "much progress is evident" in correcting high levels of unwanted goods.

He said this downturn is being compressed in time, because some of the very technologies that have boosted productivity also give companies early warnings about lower demand, allowing them to "cut production promptly in response to the developing signs of unintended inventory building."

The Fed's response to the slowdown must also be compressed in time, he said, justifying the Fed's unusually rapid 100 basis point drop in the Fed funds rate.

Greenspan's comments about consumer confidence are key, since he has said that confidence is the one variable that no economist can predict with certainty. He likened confidence to water building behind a dam, which suddenly breaches the barrier.

Once the "fabric" of confidence is ripped, a recession can follow from the vicious circle of retrenchment by consumers and businesses.

His comments Wednesday clearly show that Greenspan believes the dam is holding, for now.

And they also show that, while Greenspan has soothing words for nervous consumers, panicky investors are on their own

[Joerg]

Cool - das!
Kein weiterer Kommentar, der arme Bush ...

Gruß
Joerg

[KA111]

Bush erhielt von Clintons " wealth for all" als Morgengabe einen nett schwierigen Start ins Körbchen . Nicht unclever, Greenspan in seiner Entscheidung, den Hoffnungs-Topf länger auf kleiner Flamme köcheln zu lassen. Vogel " Hoffnung". Der leise Gesang dieses Piepsmatzens ist für die Börse d a s Überlebens-Elexier. Nur technisch: Wer hält das 3 Wochen durch, sich permanent auf etwas zu freuen. Die Nasdaq mit Sicherheit nicht. Oder? Es sitzen ne Menge Leute zitternd auf ihren angebrannten Depots und schauen mehr hinunter als hinauf. Der bohrende schlimme Zweifel, schafft die Nasdaq das(?) und die zerstörerische emotional schlimme Reue " hätt ich doch nicht"(!) und die in panischen Wellen im Leidensdruck wankenden Schmerzgrenzen" mit dem Cut-Doch-Endlich-Impuls"... Angst kriecht. Der VIX auch. Nämlich hoch.

Schon witzig, alles starrt wie fixiert auf die Zinsen. Die Börsen-Schlacht aber wird an anderer entscheidenderer Stelle geschlagen: in der Rezessionsspirale mit ihren unmittelbaren Auswirkungen in Umsatz und Cash Flow der einzelnen Unternehmen und ihren Auswirkungen in Summa auf Volkswirtschaft und Verbraucher- wie Investoren-Psychologie.

Gruß

ANDY DER AECHTE

<font size=1>[Dieser Beitrag wurde von KA111 am 28.02.2001 editiert.]</font>

[Ralph]

My hat goes off to Greenspan ! <IMG SRC="http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/icons/icon14.gif" border=0>

..... eine Nicht-Zinssenkung zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt ist das beste was dem Markt mittel- und langfristig passieren konnte .... Respekt Mr. Greenspan ! http://www.stock-channel.net/Board/smilies/smile.gif

.... wie gestern schon notiert, gibt es keinerlei Gründe jetzt übereilt die Zinsen herunterzuschleusen .... 20 Tage machen keinen Unterschied ! .... ausser vielleicht für ein paar Zocker.

Ralph