anscheinend ein harter Schlag für Siebel

[Silke]

Bereits seit mehreren Tagen konnte man großvolumige Abverkäufe bei Siebel feststellen. Gestern kam dann diese klitzekleine Meldung - die Heute in einer euphorischen Vorbörse wieder für vehemenden erneuten Abgabedruck sorgt. Siebel bereits knapp 10% im Minus!!!

Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL) dropped to $29-1/2 from a close of $33-5/8. The company said after markets closed on Monday that its senior vice president for sales had resigned

[foxy]

hi die einstige vorzeigeaktie fällt seit mehreren tagen wie ein stein, egal ob der markt steigt oder fällt.
Siebel Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:SEBL) is the world's leading provider of eBusiness applications software. Siebel Systems provides an integrated family of eBusiness applications software enabling multichannel sales, marketing, and customer service systems to be deployed over the Web, call centers, field, reseller channels, retail, and dealer networks. Siebel Systems' sales and service facilities are located in more than 37 countries. copyright:www.clearstation.com

bin zwar kein charttechniker, aber widerstände nach unten, sind für mich nicht zu erkennen, außer der aufwärtsbewegung aus 99 !!!
hier mal der jahreschart
http://people.freenet.de/foxy73/chartsiebel.gif

die analysten sehen siebel, sehr positiv, zumindest sind deren urteile entsprechend:
Recommendation Summary Recent 4 Weeks* 8 Weeks* 12 Weeks*
(1) Strong Buy 12 16 17 18
(2) Moderate Buy 8 4 4 4
(3) Hold 2 1 1 0
(4) Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0
(5) Strong Sell 0 0 0 0
Average Rating 1.48 1.24 1.23 1.14
*Denotes Past Estimates

heute allerdings gab es ein downgrade von ml:
Siebel Systems (SEBL) 33 5/8: Siebel Systems is trading lower in pre-market activity on the heels of a Merrill Lynch downgrade on the issue to Neutral from Accumulate. The downgrade reflects how pervasive the shift in sentiment on the broader economy has become. As a developer of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software, SEBL's business is to make other businesses more profitable. SEBL's products enable businesses to manage and enhance the customer relationship across multiple communication channels. The general sense among the investment community had been that developers of CRM software would be insulated from the broader macro-economic slowdown. Conventional thinking had been that as SEBL's customers felt the squeeze from a weakening economy, spending on productivity-improving CRM software would remain intact as businesses worked to account for slack revenues by improving the margin side of the equation. However, Merrill Lynch cites channel checks showing pockets of weakness in CRM demand as part of the justification for this morning's downgrade. Last night's resignation of SEBL's Senior VP of Sales, Tom Hogan also serves to undermine confidence in SEBL's end markets. What this adds up to is that the real issue for SEBL is earnings visibility. Fundamentally, it would be difficult to suggest SEBL is overvalued at the current price level assuming analyst projections on earnings and growth are in the ballpark of reality. With a long-term growth rate of 45% and a FY01 P/E of 46.6x SEBL trades at a PEG of 1.03. So if the consensus projections are correct, SEBL looks very attractive at current prices. Unfortunately, recent price activity on SEBL suggests investors are beginning to question the certainty of those projections. Until near-term visibility improves in the CRM market, Briefing.com would be cautious on the issue at these levels. -- Michael Ashbaugh, Briefing.com

naja kgv von über 150 ist natürlich nicht gerade günstig,aber wo sollte dies denn gerechtfertigt sein???sofern wir uns weiter nach unten anpassen sollten, könnte die aktie noch sehr weit fallen.... allerdings sollte doch mal eine technische reaktion erfolgen
so und jetzt ihr
fuchsi

[Droppel]

Ich glaube, jetzt müsste man sich langsam eindecken, wenn man den Abwärtstrend großzügig einzeichnet, trifft SEBL auf die untere Linie des Trend, wo eigentlich eine Gewinnbringende Gegenbewegung die Folge sein dürfte!

Grüsse aus HRO!

Kleine Erinnerung: An HOFF und LRCX denken - sieht gut aus!

[Silke]

Ach Droppel,

gell man sollte seinen Mut zusammen nehmen und investieren. Bei 80 war sie bei trotz euphorischen Aussichten einfach zu teuer. Mittlerweile hat sich die Aktie mehr als halbiert und jetzt hadert man wieder mit sich selbst.

Warens NUR die Abstufungen und den Vize dann wäre es OK - war es aber vielleicht doch mehr - oder kommt evtl. noch mehr???

Ich werde nicht so ins Blaue reinkaufen - sondern schaun wenn wir umsatzstark wieder anziehen. ITWO sollte uns hier als Beispiel dienen!

Wünsch Dir viel Glück
MM

[KA111]

Nachdem Sebl unter sein letztes Tief von 32,75 gefallen ist, halte ich es für sinnvoll, erst einmal eine vernünftige Bodenbildung abzuwarten. Auch bei etwa 20 verläuft noch ein alter Aufwärtstrend und bei 25 hat eine SKS ein rechnerisches Ziel.

Nach ML heute dürften ncoh wietere Lemming-Broker Downgrades aussprechen und evtl Schätzungen revidieren, was dem ohnedies bei etwa 140 liegenden KGV noch einmal Auftrieb geben könnte.
Ich denke, Abwarten ist hier die vernünftigste Devise.

Gruß

KA111

[Ralph]

Droppel,

Siebel sieht aus wie ein Steak auf einem Holzkohlengrill ..... man piekst es ständig, um zu sehen, ob es schon durch ist !

Die eine Seite ist bereits vollkommen verkohlt (Mensch, wie weit soll den diese Aktie noch fallen ?), die andere immer noch blutig-rot (Mensch, in diesen Chart kann man doch nicht kaufen !).

Ich schliesse mich KA111 an ..... erst eine Bodenbildung abwarten.

Ralph

[Silke]

Siebel garners support despite fall
Investors stick by wing-clipped firm while Nasdaq flies
By Shawn Langlois, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:04 PM ET Mar 6, 2001


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A long-awaited Nasdaq clambake had investors skipping and a-chirpin' throughout cyberspace on Tuesday morning as the bludgeoned index gave a slight glimpse back into the days of yore.

Unfortunately, not everyone could indulge in the virtual celebration.

Siebel Systems shareholders somehow missed their invitation to the big party as their pet stock plummeted 13 percent amid some pesky analyst downgrades and the resignation of Senior Vice President Tom Hogan.

But that didn't stop longs from feeling just a touch optimistic about the future ... heck, the broad market enthusiasm was contagious.

On Raging Bull, Stanimal embraced the opportunity: "This convergence of negativity HAS created a great buying opportunity. This is shakeout time, and weak hands are going to sell and eventually capitulate. Siebel (SEBL: news, msgs, alerts) will perform very, very well in the slowdown as a company, but the stock is more difficult to predict."

Same sentiment bubbled from BilGru on The Motley Fool: "I'm happy to see this window of opportunity to pick up some more of it at bargain basement prices. Don't get me wrong, though --- it turns my stomach to see the equity I own at higher prices lose its value like a bloodletting.

"Ask yourself where you think Siebel will be in 10 years as a business and as a stock, and if you agree with me that the future looks good, current market conditions be damned, take advantage of the sale of the century. The sellers at these prices will watch us take their discarded stock and grow wealthy with it!"

And while Blossom7 took the news in stride, she expected some blow-softening from management: "We avoided the hit for a very long time, so now a cadre of analysts downgrade, a VP leaves, Oracle (ORCL: news, msgs, alerts) preannounces -- a real convergence of negative signs. Kind of wish Tom S. would issue a release re: earnings, or replacement for leaving VP -- most anything to get people to react rationally rather than emotionally."



Over on Silicon Investor, MtnLady took Blossom7's point of view one step further: "Unfortunately Siebel will keep going down until Tom (Siebel) clarifies their projections. Until then we have an uncertainty vacuum. Can/will CRM (customer relationship management) be affected by a recession? Sure. CRM wouldn't be the last thing in someone's budget to cut. Most companies already have some sort of customer service software to help out (home grown in most cases). When sales are weak many times the customer service projects are the first to be put on the back burner."

Sure, some realists out there couldn't just turn the other cheek and slap on a smiley face -- the timing of the news was just too painful.

But the vast majority came to the realization that the broad market, as well as each individual stock, must find the bottom before we can move forward -- and, despite Siebel's rough run, the stock's destruction hadn't quite reached the depth of some of its peers.

Perhaps now it has -- after all, analysts agreed to downgrade the stock ... oftentimes a beacon to load the boat.

Stop by CBS.MarketWatch.com's new-fangled message boards and share your thoughts on Siebel or anything else that's been breezing through your head