Ralph
09.03.2001, 15:46
Schlagt mich, aber ich bin froh, dass die Arbeitsmarktdaten so herausgekommen sind, denn die US-Wirtschaft scheint wirklich nicht so schlecht dazustehen, wie bisher befürchtet. Die Zahlen suggerieren -wenn auch mit einem Time-Lag- dass die Wirtschaft gewachsen ist.
Dass die Hightechs in einer Ertragsrezession stecken ist aber ein anderes Problem.
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger Than Expected
By David A. Gaffen
Staff Reporter
3/9/01 8:46 AM ET
This wasn't what the market was expecting at all. Nonfarm payrolls rose 135,000 in February, outpacing expectations, as the labor market displayed more strength than economists expected for the month. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in February, and average hourly earnings rose 0.5%.
Economists on average had expected payrolls to grow 68,000, for the unemployment rate to come in at 4.3%, and for average hourly earnings to rise 0.4%. January's payroll gain, largely the product of outsized gains in construction and government jobs, was revised to 224,000 from an original 268,000 gain. It was expected that this jobs report would be weak, as a reversal of the surprisingly strong January data was expected, but the service sector has been resilient so far, as jobs added in retail and government sectors offset continued weakness in the manufacturing arena.
What's left to be explained is how to reconcile this data with more recent signs of economic weakness and the general feeling among corporate America that consumer and business demand has dropped sharply in recent months. It's true that the labor market data is generally considered a lagging indicator, and therefore not a great determinant of consumer demand, but this report shows that the jobs market remains reasonably strong; it could be that improved productivity and the cutback in hours worked, for now, are sufficient to offset the decline in demand.
The report is unlikely to alter the market's expectations for a 50-basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's March 20 meeting. It was thought that an excessively weak report could spur the monetary policy committee to act in advance of the meeting but that's out the window now. The manufacturing sector lost 94,000 jobs in February after losing 96,000 in January. Meanwhile, the service-producing sector, which includes thegovernment and retail trade sectors, rose by 210,000, after gaining 154,000 in January. Construction jobs gained 16,000 after a revised 158,000 gain in January, a figure that was revised higher from 145,000. Construction jobs have increased as the weather has improved in most parts of the country.
Hey, lest mal zwischen den Zeilen .... die US-Wirtschaft wächst ! ...... die High-Techs stecken damit in einer Ertragsrezession.
Ralph
Dass die Hightechs in einer Ertragsrezession stecken ist aber ein anderes Problem.
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger Than Expected
By David A. Gaffen
Staff Reporter
3/9/01 8:46 AM ET
This wasn't what the market was expecting at all. Nonfarm payrolls rose 135,000 in February, outpacing expectations, as the labor market displayed more strength than economists expected for the month. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in February, and average hourly earnings rose 0.5%.
Economists on average had expected payrolls to grow 68,000, for the unemployment rate to come in at 4.3%, and for average hourly earnings to rise 0.4%. January's payroll gain, largely the product of outsized gains in construction and government jobs, was revised to 224,000 from an original 268,000 gain. It was expected that this jobs report would be weak, as a reversal of the surprisingly strong January data was expected, but the service sector has been resilient so far, as jobs added in retail and government sectors offset continued weakness in the manufacturing arena.
What's left to be explained is how to reconcile this data with more recent signs of economic weakness and the general feeling among corporate America that consumer and business demand has dropped sharply in recent months. It's true that the labor market data is generally considered a lagging indicator, and therefore not a great determinant of consumer demand, but this report shows that the jobs market remains reasonably strong; it could be that improved productivity and the cutback in hours worked, for now, are sufficient to offset the decline in demand.
The report is unlikely to alter the market's expectations for a 50-basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's March 20 meeting. It was thought that an excessively weak report could spur the monetary policy committee to act in advance of the meeting but that's out the window now. The manufacturing sector lost 94,000 jobs in February after losing 96,000 in January. Meanwhile, the service-producing sector, which includes thegovernment and retail trade sectors, rose by 210,000, after gaining 154,000 in January. Construction jobs gained 16,000 after a revised 158,000 gain in January, a figure that was revised higher from 145,000. Construction jobs have increased as the weather has improved in most parts of the country.
Hey, lest mal zwischen den Zeilen .... die US-Wirtschaft wächst ! ...... die High-Techs stecken damit in einer Ertragsrezession.
Ralph