Vollständige Version anzeigen : Waxies Thoughts
Monday, March 12, 2001 Posted Sunday, March 11, 2001, at: 20:00 PM by waxie
DANGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!
WHEEEEEEEEE!!
WOWWWWWSAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!~!!
Market keeps going DOWN, at least the Techs, and TRENDFUND.COM
keeps rocking!!
When will they learn?
"We're at the bottom!"
Ya? We are? Hmm, well, you know what? Ya, you right, we
probably going to reverse and go to 6000 this year.
Ah huh, right. YOu remember last year when those idiots would
trudge unto CNBC every day and say the market would rebound
and see new highs when it was at 4200?
EVERY DAY they did it again and again, the "correction" was
just that and we would rebound and soar to new heights!
Hmm, hehe, guess not, eh?
As we've been stating time and again, YES, 100% there will
be a "bottom" of course. Not going to fall to ZERO, however,
why in the world would ANYONE try to pick it? Makes no sense to buck
the market.
What? YOu think that EMLX is going to rise to $100 this year? Give
me a break, you think CSCO will ever be $50 again? NO SHOT IN HELL.
So, the question here is, as always, what do we do to make money NOW
NOW NOW!
Well, as always, you join Trendfund.com and listen to Daddy and
Step-Daddy, thats a given, but more so to the point is, you
short rallies. Not necessarily intraday bounces, but if and when
we do have a decent bounce we will continue to look for ins on the
short side.
SHORT is still the way to make money, just the same as we did when
all the idiots would say in 1999 that the market couldn't possibly
go any higher so they kept shorting trying to pick a top and we just
bought all the dips and made, wha-la MILLIONS!
So, though we know for sure the market WILL bounce, maybe even
Monday, why would you jump in trying to predict it, and then
why would anyone think that we are going to get more than
a bounce of 200 - 300 points in the market?
Yes, that 200 - 300 bounce would make for some nice gains
on the LONG SIDE, of course. And, chances are WE will catch much
of it on the long side,as always, BUT, the real money is going
WITH the market because TRENDS need to be broken before you
can make money going to the other side of it.
In early 2000, after WAXIE said that we'd see 5000 in 2000 when
we were 3500ish, we said that we knew the Bull market had to end
but we were willing to ride our longs until the upward momentum
was broken.
Yes, we knew, and did, take a loss during the 1st phase of the
correction, but not until AFTER we made MANY MANY MILLIONS!
Well, we've made many many MILLIONS since that point of the
loss playing the market then NEW TREND which was DOWN into
Bear territory. Yes, we may take a hit when the market
does bottom and rallies for real, but the key is to be on
the RIGHT SIDE of the TREND. The market has been trending lower
since 1 year ago this month.
Why would you then think that all of a sudden we are going
to go to new heights? And, so what if it does? We'll catch
everything but the 1st leg of it anyway more than likely.
Truth is, market sentiment is still not in panic mode and people
are still BULLISH! Unreal as it seems, people still feel this
is a temporary setback and that if they just hold CSCO it'll
rebound. There is still a disconnection between reality and
fantasy.
Thats why we have felt and continue to feel that there is more
downside remaining, possibly MUCH MORE!
With all this said,there are several factors that may come into
play this week early to try to bounce us;
#1)FOMC meeting is a week away
#2)Options Expiration week, which the TREND is the market usually
reverses what its done the preceding week/month as traders
square away their positions and roll out of their in this case PUTS
and have to buy stock. This trend is pretty consistant,so
please be careful with your shorts this week.
#3)#s Tuesday could prove a market mover (economic #s)
#4)Fed could land a preemptive strike and ease rates (very unlikely)
The negatives that weigh on us are;
#1)Fear of Fed not easing the 50 basis or more (no shot at more)
#2)CSCO news friday of earnings waning
#3)Margin selling, there must be HUGE losses out there that
people are ready to sell off.
*If we get a capitulatory selling streak, I suspect we get
a real nice bounce into FOMC and then that sets us up for another
selloff. We will as always play the GAP, particularly today if
we GAP UP on no news (we'll short it).
Look, we going to 1800 at least and maybe 1200 longer term,
its just a matter of time, we will see a massive recession
and people will sell to pay taxes,so downside remains the way
to play it overall, but we may bounce and if we do, we will
try to catch some of the move, but at the very least we'll reset
out shorts and kill them all DEADDDDDDDD!!!
Good luck this week,see ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Monday, PART DEUX (2), March 12,2001 Posted Sunday, March 11, 2001, at: 20:30 PM by waxie
Add one more VERY important key to why we may get a bounce
this week;
We are right at PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT of 2000!
How could I forget? HEHE!!
Maybe I need more analysis??? WHO KNEW???!!!
HEHE!
Seriously, there are several factors here that would
give the market hope of a near term bounce, this is a very
important part of one. STRONG TREND that we at least
bounce at this round # here.
BEST CASE is that we gap up today, we short it, market drops
dead and margin calls come in and we capitulate with large lots
of sellers, we break BELOW 2000.
I bet we BOUNCE LARGE off that scenario, so keep your stops set tightly IF this scenario should emerge. If so, we will catch it both
ways more than likely, so stay tuned and lets see what happens.
Usually it takes a couple or more times of bouncing off a round #
like 2000 before we take it out and break and hold below it, but
often times we break below it intraday only to springboard back
over it.
So, tighten your stops as we can always reset, use the 10 am rule
and lets hope we get our perfect trading sitution.
Either way, lets RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS NOW!!
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Achja, Waxie hat heute mal wieder eine seiner Weisheiten gemailt... "Do not force trades"! Etwas, das zumindest ich mir dick hinter die Löffel schreiben muss!! Vielleicht gehts anderen ähnlich :rolleyes:
DO NOT FORCE TRADES!
Churning your account will make you BROKE!!
You do not have to trade every hour, or every day, or even
every week.
Remember that. RIght here trading will churn your account, wait
for the market to come to YOU, do not go to it,it is
more unfriendly than even WAXIE,hehe!
We headed into lunch and drifting sideways.
Wait for it to break either way.
Take day off if you feel trigger happy, it just ain't worth
it to guess and take shots which losing traders do.
You miss a move, so what? There will be moves tomorrow.
DOn't worry, be happy, PLAY TO WIN!
WAXIE
Hallo Brigitte,
unser Freund Waxie hat sich auch in letzter Zeit oftmals verspekuliert. Aber mit dieser Aussage : RIght here trading will churn your account, wait
for the market to come to YOU, do not go to it,it is
more unfriendly than even WAXIE,hehe
Hat er den Nagel wieder auf den Kopf getroffen.
Und wie es scheint - wird dies auch noch von der heutigen Börse bestätigt werden!
:)
MM
Yep MaryMeeker... momentan kommt man mit dem Markt nur klar, wenn man ein sehr guter Scalper ist (was ich absolut nicht von mir behaupten kann)... Swingtrades oder gar Positionstrades kann man glatt vergessen, dann lieber gar nix tun!
So, ich halte Euch mal weiter auf dem Laufenden, was Waxie zu sagen hat...
So, ah, where's the BOTTOM?
Fed can ease 5000 pts, it don't matter, in the great depression
they eased like 400 pts and the market still collapsed.
$80 BILLION has to be drained from the market before April
15th.
You think anyone buying between now and then is going to do
well?
Fat chance. People just so stupid. Who the hell buying
CIEN and JNPR and CHKP and ANY techs here?
People are insane. They feel that we are near a bottom
and all we keep doing is going lower and lower.
Yet they hold on!!! They hold on and they pray that this
is the last of the selling.
They tell you that CSCO and INTC and MSFT are bottomed
and are good deals and that HISTORY is on your side!!!
Yeah? It is? Hmm, NOT!
Sorry, the argument that the market always comes back is
not based on the history of the Tech craze.
Let me tell you something (I always do, hehe), there
is no shot in hell Nasdaq sees 5000 within the next
10 years. You can hold me to it. Its idiotic for people
to think that CSCO will come back, that INTC will come back.
What is this based on? Look at the last 5 bubbles and
you'll find that YES there were a FEW winners,but overall
MOST of those bubble baths are now GONE, or trade for a fraction
of what they once did.
You think JNPR is a great company? Well, yeah, they stealing
market share from CSCO, sure, but so what?
CSCO will be under $15 itself and once companies buy routers
they don't ever have to buy them again. And, with the
slowing of growth there isn't the need for as many routers.
Its a SHRINKING market, not an expanding one.
People are just too dumb to realize what the truth is, and
its a shame because when we get to 1500 or less then
people will still be singing how the bottom is here and they knew
it!
Problem is, none of them will have any money left!
Watch CNBC, they every day are WISHING, PRAYING that
the market goes up. Its sick to me that they get away
with it. I'm listening to it now and all they talk about
is how VIX is high, how there is excessive bearishness,
how short interest is at all time highs, etc.
Yes, its true, however the problem is, water seeks its own
level and CSCO's level is around $10, and SUNW is less than
$10,and INTC is $15 and JNPR is $20s, and BRCM is $10,
and the list goes on and on.
Yes, we will bounce, but this market is so far from a bottom
that its scary. And, though we may bottom at some point
even soon since anything is possible, it doesn't matter, who cares?
CSCO still not going to $40, INTC still not going to $50,
and JNPR still not going to $100
People have to stop trying to pick bottoms and start
shorting EVERY rally, thats the only way to make money here.
Yeah, you'll get burned once in a while, but overall if
you stick to that strategy you should rack up large.
Go WITH the market, not against it. Don't be afraid to short.
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Thursday, March 15, 2001 Posted Wednesday, March 14, 2001, at: 18:48 PM by waxie
What up?
WE ARE, BABY, we areeeee!
Man o man,what a dayyyy!!!
We called CASH end of day yesterday and it turned out to
be the best dang call of all. DOW opened down over 300 pts,
and once again another WAXIE prediction comes true.
3 weeks ago we sent an alert to our clients to SHORT the DOW
and gave an options play.
Today that play returned about 400% in less than 3 weeks!
Every day we hear that we are nearing a bottom, that the end
is near that you should buy techs.
Why? Why would anyone buy a tech stock now for the long term?
Seriously, think about it, besides the BS Fed moves, what
good news is going to happen to move Techs out and up?
Answer is easy = NOTHING!
Yeah, we play them for a bounce, but thats all folks,sorry.
Let the morons keep buying on the way down, "Dollar cost averaging"
Yeah? Oh, thats what you call it? I call it INSANITY and "How
to lose everything and never get it back!"
Even at these levels these stocks are trading with no visibility
at ridiculous P/E's.
I'm sorry, I know its a broken record, but CIEN is still trading
at over 50 X's 2002 earnings.
That, my friends, is unsustainable, and unjustified, and ludicrous.
No stock trades like that for long and same can be said about
almost every tech out there.
Semis? Come on, their slowing down large and yet investors think
they can pick a bottom on them. Its just plain stupid.
What if semi buying does not pick up? I mean, how many PC's
are YOU planning on buying this year if you already own one?
My point exactly, NONE.
People are just plain idiots, sorry. They look at CSCO and INTC
and QCOM and JNPR and they see CHEAP and FOR SALE signs on them
because they used to trade at 300% higher.
Well, I have news for you, JNPR never sees $100 and INTC and CSCO
never see $50 ever again.
Sorry, just ain't gonna happen.
For now, in this market?
Glad you asked. We still want to bounce into FOMC, but I tell you
what, soon after we plunge to new lows, dudes. It could get
very scary because if I'm right and Tax sellers come in, Nasdaq
could see 1500 very soon.
Yeah, I know, I'm crazy WAXIE, I know. Yep, I was so crazy when
I said 2500 from 4600 and 1800 from 3500, right?
Ah huh, I know, you right. But,you know what? We may not
get to 1500, it don't matter, what matters is that you don't
invest cause you will lose over time if you do.
If you would not buy it now then why buy it for 5 years from now?
Stupidest logic of all-time is that you should buy for the future
at the START of a recession. Oh, yeah, good idea, you right.
Freakin' inbreds. These "journalists" are supposed to be
impartial and yet they all are BULLS and want the market to go up
because their jobs are on the line. You know what? Have some
integrity dudes, please. Just tell us whats going on.
Idiot today on CNBC saying that he bets the Nasdaq closes GREEN,
hehe. Another stellar call by these inbreds!!!
WOWSA! Nice call!
Thats about as good as Abby the idiot Conehead's call last week.
How's she doing with that call? Unreal how many times she is
wrong and each time people rush to bid up stocks because she
says she is buying.
Ya? How is Abby doing? Guess another one of WAXIE's predictions
is about to come true - Henry Blotchhead and Abby the Cone Conehead
will be fired this year.
We shall see, but meanwhile we played the GAP DOWN this am for
HUGE moves (check yesterdays plays for all the details)
and we batted 100% on the day on our calls sent out.
That ain't too shabby, eh?
Hehe, you either with us, or you losing your butt!
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Friday is Triple Witching, funds need to square. If we do rally,
remember that monday we usually reverse off of Friday's action.
Aloha
Friday, March 16, 2001 Posted Thursday, March 15, 2001, at: 18:54 PM by waxie
Well, the old Bulls refused to die, but once again they doth
CRYYYYYYYYYYY!!!
Hehe!
How's that for a ryhme of the day!!!!
Go check TRENDFUND LIFE for the daily ryhme, I posted one for
today!! HEHE!
Enjoy!
WOWSA! Market had monster GAP UP, we faded it, and wha-la
we won again!
Dang, who knew? HEHE!
Their are two big questions;
#1) Will the market ever GAP UP and hold?
#2) Will the idiots stop buying GAP UPS as though we've hit
bottom and are just going to rocket up to new highs!?
Its amazing to me that ANYONE is dumb enough to keep pressing
the issue here.
Look around you, its destruction. Everyday more and more techs
hit new all-time lows. Every day they attempt to rally and
are beaten back once again.
When are people going to wake up? I can not believe this.
How stupid do you have to be?
EVery day JNPR, CIEN, CHKP gap up and crap out!
HELLOOOO???
Anyone home??? These companies have great news and still they die.
Why? Because the great news is priced in 10 times over STILL!
CIEN, my favorite whipping boy now, is still priced at over
55 X's next years earnings IF they make every quarter.
Big deal they win customers from NT,who cares?
CSCO is $20 again, hehe. Its like disease.
EVery day I tell TIny to watch JNPR, cause it gaps up after hours
every day. If I wasn't worried about warnings I'd buy it for
1/2 - $1.50 every day.
To me its not worth it, cause one day they will warn and all
the 1/2s will become worthless when JNPR is $20 a share.
So, today is Triple Witching Options expiration.
Its also a Friday and the last Options expiration of the quarter.
Its why there is a good shot that we have a down day overall
as funds get out of stocks that they got killed on and try
to fake cover it that they didn't do as poorly as they actually
did.
Its also a Friday and who the hell wants to hold their precious
techs over the weekend here?
Not I, dudes, sorry, hehe. SORRYYYYYYYYYY!!!
NO SIRREEE BOBBBBBB!
I bet there are others like me, so unless we get news in the morning,
I'm hoping we get another GAP UP so we can just short it again.
Chances of us gapping and running are VERY slim with no market
moving event.
By the way, saw on CNBC guy who wrote in Wall Street Journal
that Fed can't save the markets.
Wow, who said that about a year ago?
He was a Yale Economist. I'm just a former Homeless dude who
many think is obnoxious, hehe.
Dang, am I that smart? Yeah, I think I ammmmm!
HEHE! Doesn't take a brain surgeon to know that the FED will
not be able to help the markets, duh!
EVeryone still thinks the economy turns around in the 2nd half.
Based on what? SMOKE AND MIRRORS!!
The truth is, no one knows, not even me. However, it seems
less likely to happen every day. In fact, if I had to place a wager
I'd say we get worse before we get better. That is the way
it usually works and with the market selling off like this
there is a chance that banks here will have similar problems
to those of Japan. Most banks are overweight stocks in this
country. Well, they taking a big beating, dudes, very big.
Guess we'll see soon enough, but I doubt the DOW has much more
life left in it. I bet it breaks below 9500 shortly,
and then possibly below 9000 soon after that.
Listen, we ain't running wild anytime soon, sorry to say.
We will get tradeable bounces, but we not going to 3000, or even
2500 anytime soon, so relax and just play the market intraday.
Thats what we do, and thats how we are making a KILLING!
Tomorrow should be another profitable day. Lets see what shakes
out!
GAP US UP PLEASEEE!! HEHE!
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Quelle: http://www.trendfund.com/
artistin
16.03.2001, 16:03
Nein, nicht Waxie, aber eine andere Einschätzung von Eric W. (kinetictrader)
March 16th / Friday
Thursday was gap and trap day... as we created a bit of resistance at 2030. It's gettin
close to crunch time for this market folks, and I'm referring to the 6-year NASDAQ trend.
We've got every reason to believe 1800 is ahead since the 5-week trend is still intact and
surging lower. So what happens what a 6-year uptrend meets a 5-week downtrend?
Theoretically the 6-year uptrend should hold, but who wants to assume that when we're still
in a selling vacuum? We'll find out in the next couple weeks. Frankly after the past two
years I don't think we're going to see an exact reaction to that line, and I don't think it's
going to hold in the first place. The only reason to follow trends is if you're going to trade
them, and if you think I'm buying 1800 for anything but a trade you're nuts! To be clear,
this 6-year chart has nothing to do with trading really. 10 or 30 day charts are the place to
be to set up swings.
artistin
Monday, March 19, 2001 Posted Sunday, March 18, 2001, at: 14:05 PM by waxie
Well, the wait is still on, no sign of
WAXIE, Jr. yet, but due to pop anytime now.
Whoops, sorry, you thought I was talking about GREENSPAN, my
other child?
Nope sorry, more important things on the table than what
that lammo will do.
But, oh, well,since you all asked what will happen
in the market this week, let me get in the gratuitous
self-congratulations as we had an UNREAL week in the face
of one of the worst market weeks in history!
Our call of DOW below 10,000 came to pass in the exact time
frame we called, and our LONGS and SHORTS both ROCKED!
Tiny's triggers were unreal and anyone who is not
using the list is frankly giving away free money.
But, enough, anyone who is a member already knows this about us.
And we sent the DOW alert to EVERYONE 3 weeks ago when DOW was
10,800 range and said it was ready to roll over and would
be UNDER 10,000 by options experation in 3 weeks.
Well, how'd we do on those DJX puts? Hmm,I made about 250%
on them in 3 weeks, not a bad YEARS PAY!
TTN was a MONSTER call and netter Option Players about 150%
in ONE DAY on Friday.
And,TTN may have downside left to rack up on, we'll see!
So,while everyone else is getting rocked, we are ROCKING!
Or, should I say, RULING THE MARKET!
So, for now, lets talk a little bit about the week ahead.
#1 on everyone's agenda is the FOMC on Tuesday at about 2 pm EST.
Will Greenie ease 50 or 75 basis points?
Frankly, who cares?
Seriously, if anyone thinks that the FED is saving the market
for more than a bounce they are VERY sadly mistaken.
Market is still WAY overvalued and CAN fall MUCH MUCH more.
Any rally post-FOMC should be sold into if you invest,
and for us we're just gonna look for shorting opportunities into
any rally, as always until the market turns itself around for real,
which I can not see it doing for a while here until some positive
stuff starts to happen,like EARNINGS that are real and sustainable
and an economic expansion.
SO far every company says this will last for a while and every analyst
says now is the time to buy. Why? Why would I buy here?
Even if I was an investor,why not wait for something positive to
drive me?
For a bounce? Sure, we will play them, and in fact let me get to that
next.
But, why in the world buy here for more than a trade?
Listen, people all rushed in like wild idiots to buy when
these analysts for years kept pumping up stock prices,
now all of a sudden they don't want to see the reality and when
PMCS gets a $34 price target I read all over the place how
the analyst is crazy and how great the company is.
Really? PMCS is $32 and got a $34 target and you'd buy it?
Hehe, why? I say its worth $15, so you can buy it, but you will
cry it later more than likely.
If I am right then there is a lot more carnage to be had,
and any rally is a SUCKERS rally here and sure to just lure people
back into the market to trash them once again. The smart money
to be made is on the SHORT side and anyone who is unwilling to SHORT
is a moron and a fool, frankly.
FOMC will produce a 50 basis more than likely, with another 50 basis
next month possible.
The problem is, if we get 75 basis, though it MAY invoke a bounce
or two, what happens after that? FED can not ease 500 basis pts
more, there is not much more room, and economists will tell you
that if they did that then people would pull too much money from
savings and it could induce a MASSIVE and I mean MASSIVE meltdown
unlike any we have EVER seen. People better wake up to the fact
that the market is STILL in BUBBLE MODE!
STILL! Stop looking for a bottom and start looking for an EXIT!
The gig is up. Listen, I own a VERY sucessful business here at
Trendfund.com thanks to you all, and I am very grateful, but if I were
to try to sell the business no one would pay me 25's revenue and
I tell you that our business is growing faster than ANY tech company
out there, easily. We are growing every month at a very fast clip.
VERY FAST.
The rule of thumb for a cyclical business, which all these techs
are turning out to be, is 5 - 8 X's EARNINGS!
Obviously stocks sell historically for more than that, but not that
much overall, and if tech slowdown continues as it probably will,
then whether its now, or in 3 years, then these stocks can fall
another 50% or more. Yes, I said that. Anyone who thinks EMC can't
be $15 is fooling themselves. Even idiot analysts are only
giving it a $40ish target now, so why would I buy it here now for
the long haul and think that it will go way back up?
Answer = I would NOT!
So, Tuesday is a big day, and I suspect that we may actually rally
on a Sell the rumor, buy the news scenario, but frankly its iffy
either way. I am unsure as the TREND is we sell the FOMC, but the
TREND was also that we at least get some run into it,which has not
happened.
My plan is to be basically flat, other than a few shorts for long haul, play some Straddles on it,
and then trade out of it and Fade the gap, whichever way it goes.
If we get the 75 basis I think its better for us as we may
get an initial pop and then death soon after. I do not believe
the FED can save us, and too many people have been hanging their
hats on that for it to happen.
IF we can not rally into the FOMC then it is very possible that
the market really turns over and does indeed capitulate.
We maintain our SHORT bias until proven otherwise, and we plan
our trades and trade our plans.
Best case is rally, short, death. One way or another we have
Tax pullouts happening even now and they will continue to happen
as we move into April. Some 80 BILLION $ needs to be withdrawn
and thats a hefty amount.
FOMC will be tradeable no matter what, members will get a Special
FOMC tips email today or tomorrow night, so please watch for it
if you are a member.
For everyone else, sit tight and look for ins to get short
on any rally, cause FED ain't saving us for more than a brief
respite - AT BEST!
DEATH to the stock market,long live Trendfund.com!
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Market
Don't get fooled.
Tradeable rally maybe, but we not at bottom. Use Tiny's Triggers
off the list, and watch for new reshorts on Semis we love to hate
and on CIEN, etc.
We called EXACT bottom on Brokers. We look to reshort those
as well.
Next week is window dressing and tax selling coming. Don't
be fooled by idiots who say we are at a bottom and you should INVEST!
We not investors, we make money, they LOSE money!
We are WAY WAY WAY up on the year, they are PUNISHED!
Remember who your daddy and step-daddy are and TRADE this market!
We go UP, fine, lets trade it up, but look for reentries on
our shorts cause in the end they not going anywhere fast.
Just another Dead Cat to play with. MEOW, MEOW!
Semis broke out, but I do not think they have seen their
lows so lets hope we get a nice run to set up for harder fall.
Trade it long, trade it short, either way we kick its butt!
I'm off for another week or so with baby, but Tiny is totally
rocking!!
Our Brokerage call made our clients YEAR, maybe 10 years, let
alone their week or month. NO ONE does what we do, period.
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Yeah :) Nachdem Waxie mal für ne Woche eher schlecht gelegen hat (kein Wunder kurz vor der Geburt des Waxie-Babies :D - es ist ein Mädchen), ist er seitdem wieder treffsicher wie eh und jeh! Mit seinem Brokerage-Call kam ich nu auch mal in den Genuss, 160% in zwei Tagen zu machen, bin noch ganz verzückt davon :hihi Lasst Euch nicht blenden, wenn wir jetzt mal hochlaufen (vielleicht sogar mal mehrere hundert Punkte)... ob es mehr als eine Bärenmarkt-Rally ist wird sich erst noch rausstellen! Zum Traden allemal fein, für mehr... schaun mer mal :rolleyes: :ek
Monday, March 26, 2001 Posted Saturday, March 24, 2001, at: 14:27 PM by waxie
ROTATION and the STEADY DOWNWARD TREK:
Its becoming increasingly clear to me that my original WAXIE'S THOUGHTS SPECIAL EDITION #1 (you can view Under RULES OF THE GAME)
is a pure stroke of genius. Anyone who read it and practiced it
like I and many of our clients have has made MILLIONS.
We hit 1800 on the Nasdaq which is where I said we would bounce,
and we have. The DOW meanwhile swooned and tested 9000
as I said it would, and the money flowed back into the Nasdaq
and out of the DOW. For a few years in the major Bull run we had
we dealt with ROTATION (Sector Rotation) whereby money was pulled
in and out of different sectors to capture short term Trends and moves.
The truth is, for all you conspiracy nuts, that the institutions
maneuver monies in and out and take profits along the way
in a Bull market and are much more active traders than they let on
in a Bear or Bull market. Money flows transfer back and forth
from Oil/Retail and so-called defensive stocks into and out of
TECH STOCKS.
Right now we may get a short term rally into techs as the perception
is that they are now undervalued compared to many so-called Defensive
issues.
There are several signs that point to a short term (very) relief
bounce (I refuse to call it a rally since it ain't gonna last very long).
On Friday we gave the BEAR stance, but lets just briefly run by
the BULLS stance;
#1)Perception is that Fed will ease again shortly, possibly this
week. This may give the market a very short term adrenaline rush(
and give us a great set up to go short again!)
#2)Techs are perceived as being vastly oversold and nothing goes
straight down.
#3)Micron (MU) said that DRAM prices have steadied and actually
increased and inventories have begun to shrink (no one else in
semis is saying anything about demand pickup, however and visibility
remains clueless at best) I must state though that MU also delayed
their earnings release which is almost always a negative, and their
#s are pitiful based on what I read. Also, DRAM prices should
head back down shortly anyway, it was a technical bounce more
than likely.
#4)Investors are afraid to miss the "BOTTOM" (are you a member
of BA - Bottoms Anonymous?)
The great thing for us is that whether we catch a relief bounce
here or not on the long side (we will be poking a few if the bounce
does/is happening, which it very well may to about 2100 range on
Nasdaq and 9750 range on Dow) we will get some great drops
off this move as MU is not holding $40, let alone $50 for long and
semis are my focus stocks as far as having new lows to reach longer
term.
Investor sentiment moves with the wind and two days prior to the big
turnaround no one wanted anything to do with the market. Now they
clamor, afraid to miss the "big move".
I submit that our long term take to 1200 - 1500 should come to fruition. The main problem with this sector Rotation is that
though it happens and we play it, overalll EVERY sector is spiraling
DOWNWARD at this point. Thus, any bounces in Tech can only go a very
short distance before selling comes in and beats the Bulls to death.
As traders we do not worry so much about where the market will go
tomorrow, just where it goes today, but it should be noted that
1800 was support, we bounced and may get to retest 2000 on Nasdaq
before resuming the downward trek. If we just die, fine, then
we go reset shorts once again and rock with them.
Semis are vastly overpriced and though they broke out of a range
Friday my suspicion is that much of the buying in that sector
is due to Window Dressing this coming week here now, and
due to being oversold and no one wanting to miss a rally.
That being said, we are looking for places to get in on the SHORT
side once again, while trading to the long side if the situation
arises.
We knew the DOW would break and we do not believe that we can
have a sustained rally here now. If the Fed does ease it
will just set us up nicely for reshorting our favorites.
Though market will pop, just like it did in January, its highly unlikely it will last. With CSCO still trading at a ludicrous
multiple, I suspect that many institutions are getting their
hands on the sell button into any rally here. They may let us
ride it for a day or two, or three, but in the end we have very little
upside.
Watch for news to drive us and any little scrap of good economic data
to propel us. Set your stops on your shorts and trail them from here
if you have not locked in profits already.
If you have, then we will find ins better and ride them to lower lows
more than likely. Its always possible the economy turns around
really fast, but there is never a reason for us to invest here,
never. We are TRADERS and the TREND remains DOWN.
IN a bounce look for laggards to play long. I'm looking at
the Brokers/Semis for ins on shorts (use Tiny's Focus Lists!!!).
This should be an interesting week, watch the VIX and market sentiment. If we get positive again fast then the bounce will just
die right away.
We are totally rocking, period, no one comes even close to making
money here but we do almost every day!
Let the market come to you. Market is stuck in DOWN mode.
This is not 1998 where we are now going to new highs, I promise,
so relax and play it smart! THINK!
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
Quelle: www.trendfund.com
Tuesday, March 27, 2001 Posted Monday, March 26, 2001, at: 18:47 PM by waxie
WOWSA!!
Once again we hit the nail on the head and had a magnificent day!
I'm not going to go into our SECTOR CALL over the weekend to members
simply because its unfair to our many paying clients, but suffice
it to say that the sector call ROCKED!
It panned out EXACTLY as we said it would and it paid off HANDSOMELY!
We made really nice money today!!! REALLY NICE!
We continue to play the GAPS for super gains, and we continue to
make all the right moves not chasing this market on every bounce.
Yes, eventually we will take a real upturn and we may miss
a piece of that move, but until the market reverses its downward
shuffle anyone buying for more than playable bounces is a total
idiot.
Its still amazing to me that stocks like PMCS can restate their
earnings and say that instead of earnings $1.40, then .70 cents
they will now earn 22 cents a share MAYBE on the year and yet
their are idiots buying them because they once traded over $200
a share.
At the new #s PMCS is now trading at 170 X's this years earnings.
And, next years? Well, IF they meet the revised #s it looks like
they are trading at over 100 P/E for next year.
Dudes, I am sorry, but come on, the insanity has to stop at some point. CSCO #s now mean they are STILL trading at P/E of about
40 X's NEXT YEARS #s. This is insane. CEO of CSCO says that its
getting WORSE, not better and yet these total inbreds trek onto
CNBC and say how its GOING TO GET BETTER, BUY NOW!
Well, maybe we get a monster rally and the economy all of a sudden
gets better overnight, sure, why not?
But, I'll take my chances shorting rallies until that beats me.
We get beat, we can always reverse and go LONG, but until that day,
then lets stick with our plan which is to Trade intraday, and
play the market whichever way its bouncing.
We do have earnings coming up shortly, and I told Tiny today that
several sectors are priming for a bounce into them. Biotechs
may have started one today.
So, tighten your stops, and if we do get an earnings run of some
stuff then lets play it, but with tight stops either way.
Be PATIENT here! After earnings we should have major tankage,
so there is no rush here to come in and go crazy either long or short.
Nothing wrong with taking your time and only playing safe until
we get clear trend. Post-earning trends are very strong, and I look
for us to get a really heavy selloff once these earnings are done with.
If we do bounce INTO earnings, I am sending a list to the members
for some stocks to look at for this.
I think CIEN and JNPR are very dangerous stocks here. Both may
warn shortly, or guide way lower. So, please use caution here
trading those two from the long side for now for more than mere
bounces.
All in all, I am iffy here, admittedly. Our sector calls are
rocking and our gap calls are amazing. Lets just take it easy,
play them hard and the rest play easy, use small lots and bide
our time. This is a marathon, not a sprint.
DOW should be ready to roll over again very near term. Tiny said
Fib Retracement is 9762 and we are near that now. In fact,
when we called DJX puts we sold off about 80 pts from that pt, so
we are in the money on those as well.
Use your head here. We're rocking, lets not give it back. If this
WAXIE'S THOUGHTS is a little convoluted it tells you that
I am iffy here as there are contrasting trends at work. For me
thats a sign to go easier than normal, play whats working for us,
and follow the WAXIE and TINY leaders, cause we are the only game
in town thats working - anywhere!
See ya on the other side,
WAXIE
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