Fondsstudie: Rückläufiger Cash-Anteil. Na Prost!

[KA111]

Wie eine aktuelle Studie von Reuters zeigt, lassen sich die Fondsmanager aus allen Regionen der Erde von der aktuellen Börsenflaute nicht beeindrucken und kaufen sich weiter sukzessive in den Aktienmarkt ein.

In erster Linie europäische und japanische Aktien standen und stehen nach dem Bericht ganz oben auf der Kaufliste, während man sich bei den amerikanischen Pendants etwas in Zurückhaltung übt.

Grund zur Sorge biete in Amerika gerade die drohende Rezession, deren Dauer und Ende noch nicht abzusehen sei. Dies würden auch alle Aktienmärkte so nachbilden. Der MSCI World Index beispielsweise hat gerade den stärksten 6-Monatseinbruch seit 1974 hinter sich gebracht, dem Jahr, als Ölpreisschock, hohe Inflation und Wirtschaftsflaute zusammengefallen waren.

Aber gerade aufgrund der optisch günstigen Bewertung vieler Aktien sei es jetzt an der Zeit, einkaufen zu gehen, meint die Mehrzahl der Marktstrategen.
"Obwohl noch beträchtliche Abwärtsrisiken bestehen, sind wir der Auffassung daß ein schrittweiser Einkauf sich nun lohnen sollte", meint Peter Oppenheimer von der HSBC in London, der den Aktienanteil seines Gesamtportfolios in den letzten Tagen auf 65% aufgestockt hat- zu Lasten der Cashposition.

Und mit diesem Schritt ist er nicht der einzige. Insgesamt fiel der Cashanteil in britischen Aktienfonds von 4% im Januar auf 3,1% in Februar, der US-amerikanische Aktienanteil stieg 1,3% auf 43,1%.

Anders sehe es hingegen bei den US-Fonds aus, die ihren Aktienanteil von 47% auf 44% im März reduzierten. Dennoch halten sie aktuell einen größeren Aktienanteil als dies in den Monaten November bis Januar der Fall war.
Auch gibt sich die Mehrheit der Fondsmanager optimistisch über die langfristigen Aussichten US-amerikanischer Aktien. Nach wie vor stellen US-Unternehmen den Wachstumsmotor der Weltwirtschaft dar und seien aktuell vergleichsweise attraktiv bewertet.

In der Eurozone kürzten die Fonds nach der Studie den Cashanteil gar von 1,9% auf zuletzt 0,8%, den tiefsten Stand seit letztem Oktober.

Insgesamt stiegen die Anteile japanischer Aktien von 8,7% auf 10,6% weltweit, obwohl oder gerade weil der Nikkei in den letzten Wochen stark eingebrochen war.



© GodmodeTrader.de

Auf die Gesundheit: auch Privatanleger halten immer noch durch und verbilligen. Der Stoff aus dem die ALB-Träume sind... Was hoch geht, tut das nur kurz...


:ne :ne :ne

Gruß
KA111

[LISA]

Hier ist der amerikanische Bericht:

Friday March 30, 7:03 am Eastern Time

Fund Managers Trim Exposure to Wall St.

By Patricia Vowinkel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fund managers reduced their holdings of
American stocks in March amid more signs of trouble in the world's
largest economy, sending stocks toward two-year lows.

A Reuters poll of 14 U.S. money managers, conducted March 23-29
and released on Friday, found that they reduced their average
allocations to U.S. equities to 44 percent in March, down from February's
allocation of 47 percent.

With America's main stock indices down sharply in March, fund managers
raised their allocations to cash, and some selected more foreign stock
markets.

All three major U.S. stock indices, at least at some point this year, fell
at least 20 percent below their all-time highs, the traditional definition
of a ``bear market.''

Even so, fund managers still kept more assets in U.S. equities in March
than they did in the period from November to January, the survey showed.

``The United States is still the growth engine of the world and on a global
basis U.S. stocks still represent some of the best value,'' said Donald Berdine,
chief investment officer at PNC Advisors.

U.S. stocks took a beating in March as investors became ever more nervous
about the state of America's economy, fearing that the Federal Reserve's
three half-point interest rate cuts so far this year may not be enough to
jump-start the stalled growth rate.

The slowing U.S. economy is taking a toll on corporate profits, with the pain
spreading from technology companies last year to Corporate America's
biggest names this year.

Amid the turmoil in the U.S. equity markets, fund managers fled to the
safe haven of cash, boosting their allocation to 4 percent in March from
2 percent in February.

Fund managers also moved more assets into the United Kingdom and
Japan as the stronger dollar made the pound and the yen a more
attractive value.

The move into the United Kingdom also came on expectations that
corporate earnings growth in the United Kingdom will outpace growth
in the United States.

Fund managers boosted assets in the United Kingdom to 7.8 percent
in March, up from 6 percent in February.

``It's moving up in our rankings and we have somewhat more allocation
to the U.K. than we did last month and that's because the pound is less
overvalued,'' said Leila Heckman, managing director at Salomon Smith Barney.

``Also, the earnings growth seems to be around 10-11 percent for the
U.K. as opposed to close to zero for the U.S.,'' she said.

In Japan, fund managers raised their allocation to 8 percent in March
from 7 percent in February on the view that some companies may be
more reasonably valued after a steep drop in the Japanese stock market.

``Japan has risen somewhat in the rankings, although Japan is always
sort of the wildcard, and that's because the real exchange rate of the
yen we find undervalued,'' she said.

In addition, she said, the price-to-earnings ratio on stocks in Japan
has come down to what is ``close to the norm for the world.''
In the past, she said, ``Japan was always the outlier'' with very high
stock valuations.

In the face of a global slowdown of growth, a trend of flight to safety is
still mirrored in fund managers' appetite for fixed income securities,
with U.S. securities still attracting most of the funds.

``In the United States people were underweight fixed income in
the past and now we are recommending a more mixed exposure
between equities and fixed income,'' said Karim Basta, global fixed
income strategist at Merrill Lynch.

In March managers held 50.7 percent in U.S. fixed income securities,
more than the 46 percent they allocated to this sector in February.
They also raised their allocation to euro-zone nations to 13.7 percent
from 10 percent and boosted their allocation to Japan from 3 percent
to 5.8 percent.

One reason Japan's weighting may have been raised, analysts said,
related to the March 31 end of Japan's fiscal year, with Japanese investors
bringing money home to shore up ailing balance sheets.

At the same time, investors pared back their exposure to U.S. Treasuries
to 21.6 percent from 28 percent, reasoning that the market's long rally,
which has pinned yields near two-year lows, may not last very much longer.

Instead, the money continued to flow into corporate bonds, where prices
were very low at the start of the year, and into mortgage-backed securities.
The survey showed that fund managers put 33 percent into corporate bonds,
up from 31 percent, and 25 percent into mortgage-backed securities, up
from 19 percent in February.




Take care.
Lisa

[Ralph]

Und weil es so "schön", hier die aktuelle Statistik zu den Mittelabzügen aus Fonds.

Dritte Woche hintereinander werden $5.7 Mrd. herausgezogen.

Stock Funds See Outflows for Third Straight Week as $5.7 Billion Gets Yanked Out
By Ian McDonald
Senior Writer
4/2/01 12:27 PM ET





Many fund company executives are no doubt praying for leniency as they get ready to mail investors' first quarter statements that tell a tale of woe. After all, fund shareholders are already dumping stock funds left and right.

Investor redemptions from stock funds outpaced investments by $5.7 billion in the five trading days ending last Thursday, according to the latest data from liquidity tracker TrimTabs.com. It's the third consecutive week of outflows by TrimTabs.com's tally and comes on the heels of a dreary February -- stock funds' first month of outflows in two years.

While preliminary estimates can change, these figures do indicate a continuing trend where fund investors are favoring less aggressive bond and money market funds over stock funds that have fallen hard over the past year.

Fund flows are always closely watched as a barometer of investor sentiment. Optimists might read this as a sign that the tumbling stock market is bottoming, but others will no doubt see it as the start of an ominous trend that could keep already-ravaged tech stocks down.

The reason: If outflows persist for several months, fund managers selling stock to cash out rattled shareholders can add a terminal dose of selling pressure to already battered stocks. This can trigger a vicious cycle where sagging performance begets outflows, begetting even worse performance and further outflows.

This pattern crushed value funds in 1998 and 1999 when their style fell from favor. February's data indicated that tech- and tech-heavy growth funds, the top-selling fund categories in recent years, accounted for much of that month's outflows. If these outflows persist they could weigh on the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index, already down more than 60% over the last year according to Baseline/Thomson Financial.

To be sure, a comparison of this year's fund flows with last year's highlights an about-face. So far this year stock funds are eking out weekly average inflows of $200 million, compared to $5.9 billion last year. At the same time cash flows to bond and balanced funds have gone from negative to positive, while investors are more interested in the safe haven of money market or cash funds.

Buying Cash

Weekly average cash flow figures show a big shift toward less risky fare.
2001 2000
Stock Funds

2001: $0.2
2000: $5.9
Bond/Balanced Funds

2001: 1.5
2000: -1.5

Money Market Funds

2001: 6.1
2000: 1.8

Source: TrimTabs.com. Figures through March 29.


Some might blame the outflow patterns on fund investors seasonal stockpiling of cash to pay their tax bills. After all, those bills are higher this year, thanks to record taxable capital-gains distributions last year.

But that doesn't really hold water if we compare flow figures from the first 13 weeks of this year with the same period in 2000. So far this year stock funds have netted just $2.5 billion, compared with $113.8 billion in the same amount of time last year. At the same time, cash flows to bond funds and balanced funds, which own both stocks and bonds, are much higher. Money markets are taking in more money, too.

Year to Year
Investors shifting taste is even more stark if we compare the flow figures for the first 13 weeks of this year and 2000.
2001 2000

Stock Funds

2001: 2.5
2000: 113.8

Bond/Balanced Funds

2001: 19.9
2000: -38.3

Money Market Funds

2001: 78.9
2000: 67.1

Source: TrimTabs.com. Figures through March 29.


A more plausible excuse for the sagging flows to stock funds is the steep losses suffered by growth funds that loaded up on tech in 1999, soaring to outsize returns and record in-flows. Big-, mid- and small-cap funds have all lost more than a third of their value over the past year, according to Morningstar. The Vanguard 500 Index fund, which tracks the S&P 500 Index, is down some 12% over the same period.

Goin' South

The past 12 months have been rough on funds bearing growth, tech or telecom labels.

http://members.tripod.de/ProfitGalore/Fund_re.gif

Source: Morningstar. Figures through March 30.

Tech- and communications-sector funds have been hit even harder than their diversified counterparts. On average both categories, which more than tripled the S&P 500 in 1999, have lost more than half their value over the past 12 months. Money has only started to gush out of tech funds, which were saw February net outflows of $1.5 billion, but it's hard to imagine they won't pick up. The mercurial funds took in some 30 cents over every dollar invested in U.S. stock funds last year and those recent investors are well in the red.

To lesser degrees, the same argument could be made for rising outflows from growth funds, as fund investors nationwide await their disappointing first-quarter account statements.

Source: TheStreet.com

Ralph