KA111
25.04.2001, 23:51
Die robuste Zahl der US-Hausverkäufe ( Althäuser) im März, die um 4,7 % stieg, half der Börse heute stimmungsmäßig.
Hier schlägt sich der Hypothekenzins der mit unter 7 % auf dem Rekordtief seit 30 Jahren liegt, entsprechend positiv nieder. Die Preise gegenüber Vorjahr waren in etwa unverändert.
Der Auftragsbestand für Neubauten fiel jedoch weiter auf relativ niedrige 3,6 Monate .
Wie geht es weiter, nachdem sich hier von einem angeschlagenen Konsumentenvertrauen noch keinerlei Spuren zeigen?
Spätestens im Sommer wird sich der Stellenschwund im Arbeitsmarkt entsprechend - zumindest psychologisch -niederschlagen und den zuletzt positiven Trend brechen. Wer kauft sich schon ne Hütte, wenn er um den Job zittern muß? Läuft da vielleicht eine Immobilienbubble aus?
Auch die Entwicklung an der Börse könnte potentiellen Käufern eher eine stärkere Zurückhaltung beim Hauskauf nahelegen.
Insgesamt ist die Branche derzeit ( noch ) ein Lichtblick in der US-Rezession. Greenspan sei Dank. Das war der Zinsturbo. Vielfach ist ein Stellenabbau zwar angekündigt, aber noch nicht vollzogen . Das alles dürften wir im Wesentlichen noch vor uns haben, wenn die Konjunktur nicht Bald in die Hufe kommt. Das aber tut sie in der Koch-Ness-Phase des Sommers ganz bestimmt nicht.
Bericht und Chart aus http://www.dismal.com/economy/releases/release_2k.asp?r=usa_home_sales
March new home sales surged 4.2% to a 1.02 million annualized pace, the strongest month on record. For perspective on the magnitude of that number, any pace over 900,000 is taken as a strong market.
This strong growth came on top of a significant upward revision to February’s number, which has been revised from a 911,000 pace to a 980,000 pace. This is significant as it changes February’s 2.4% decline to a 1.2% gain.
Sales rose strongly in each of the four Census regions except the West. The Northeast and Midwest posted double-digit growth rates.
Inventories of new homes for sale fell further to a very low 3.6 months. And beneath that strong national number, it is also positive to note that there is no sign of significant overbuilding anywhere in the country.
House price growth did appear to slow, however. Year over year, the median price is flat. Good bargains and sub-7% 30-year fixed mortgage rates are juicing this market.
Analysis
Housing demand is not weakening yet. New home sales in March shot over the one million unit pace, a record. Inventories of new homes for sale also remain lean. Combined with the data on existing home sales, housing starts, and mortgage applications, the housing market shows little sign of flagging.
The key support to housing demand is low mortgage rates. Fixed rates are near a 30-year low of 7% and rates on adjustable mortgages are falling with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing in monetary policy. It would be incorrect to argue, however, that low rates are the only factor. Clearly households are more confident in their financial situations than some measures of consumer confidence would suggest.
This pace will be very hard to sustain, though. In addition to the ongoing weakness in the stock market, the labor market is weakening quickly, and layoffs are now spreading beyond manufacturing to tech and services. Financial service employment, which has been largely unscathed, is likely to weaken as well.
Thus, housing demand is expected to weaken by this summer under the weight of languid stock prices and a softer job market. The magnitude of the slowing in the housing market will largely depend on the extent to which job markets weaken further. But as long as the housing market doesn’t cave, it should provide enough support to the broader economy to ensure that a full-blown recession is avoided.
http://www.dismal.com/graphs/release/CHT_R_usa_home_sales.GIF
Gruß
KA111:D
Hier schlägt sich der Hypothekenzins der mit unter 7 % auf dem Rekordtief seit 30 Jahren liegt, entsprechend positiv nieder. Die Preise gegenüber Vorjahr waren in etwa unverändert.
Der Auftragsbestand für Neubauten fiel jedoch weiter auf relativ niedrige 3,6 Monate .
Wie geht es weiter, nachdem sich hier von einem angeschlagenen Konsumentenvertrauen noch keinerlei Spuren zeigen?
Spätestens im Sommer wird sich der Stellenschwund im Arbeitsmarkt entsprechend - zumindest psychologisch -niederschlagen und den zuletzt positiven Trend brechen. Wer kauft sich schon ne Hütte, wenn er um den Job zittern muß? Läuft da vielleicht eine Immobilienbubble aus?
Auch die Entwicklung an der Börse könnte potentiellen Käufern eher eine stärkere Zurückhaltung beim Hauskauf nahelegen.
Insgesamt ist die Branche derzeit ( noch ) ein Lichtblick in der US-Rezession. Greenspan sei Dank. Das war der Zinsturbo. Vielfach ist ein Stellenabbau zwar angekündigt, aber noch nicht vollzogen . Das alles dürften wir im Wesentlichen noch vor uns haben, wenn die Konjunktur nicht Bald in die Hufe kommt. Das aber tut sie in der Koch-Ness-Phase des Sommers ganz bestimmt nicht.
Bericht und Chart aus http://www.dismal.com/economy/releases/release_2k.asp?r=usa_home_sales
March new home sales surged 4.2% to a 1.02 million annualized pace, the strongest month on record. For perspective on the magnitude of that number, any pace over 900,000 is taken as a strong market.
This strong growth came on top of a significant upward revision to February’s number, which has been revised from a 911,000 pace to a 980,000 pace. This is significant as it changes February’s 2.4% decline to a 1.2% gain.
Sales rose strongly in each of the four Census regions except the West. The Northeast and Midwest posted double-digit growth rates.
Inventories of new homes for sale fell further to a very low 3.6 months. And beneath that strong national number, it is also positive to note that there is no sign of significant overbuilding anywhere in the country.
House price growth did appear to slow, however. Year over year, the median price is flat. Good bargains and sub-7% 30-year fixed mortgage rates are juicing this market.
Analysis
Housing demand is not weakening yet. New home sales in March shot over the one million unit pace, a record. Inventories of new homes for sale also remain lean. Combined with the data on existing home sales, housing starts, and mortgage applications, the housing market shows little sign of flagging.
The key support to housing demand is low mortgage rates. Fixed rates are near a 30-year low of 7% and rates on adjustable mortgages are falling with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing in monetary policy. It would be incorrect to argue, however, that low rates are the only factor. Clearly households are more confident in their financial situations than some measures of consumer confidence would suggest.
This pace will be very hard to sustain, though. In addition to the ongoing weakness in the stock market, the labor market is weakening quickly, and layoffs are now spreading beyond manufacturing to tech and services. Financial service employment, which has been largely unscathed, is likely to weaken as well.
Thus, housing demand is expected to weaken by this summer under the weight of languid stock prices and a softer job market. The magnitude of the slowing in the housing market will largely depend on the extent to which job markets weaken further. But as long as the housing market doesn’t cave, it should provide enough support to the broader economy to ensure that a full-blown recession is avoided.
http://www.dismal.com/graphs/release/CHT_R_usa_home_sales.GIF
Gruß
KA111:D