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Vollständige Version anzeigen : Qualcomm: Zahlen schlecht, Ausblick schlecht !


Ralph
26.04.2001, 06:04
Qualcomm meldet nachbörslich sehr schlechte Zahlen, und beschneidet die zukünftige Erwartung sehr deutlich ..... und mein Put wurde ausgestoppt ! :( ..... ich denke aber, wir kriegen wieder eine Chance ! :)

Qualcomm Blames the Economy
By Tish Williams
Senior Writer
4/25/01 8:00 PM ET

Updated from 5:14 PM


Get the first-aid kit, another third-generation wireless player needs patching up this week as Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - news) swooned in its second-quarter earnings report and lowered its forecasts for coming quarters. Qualcomm met analysts' earning estimates for its second quarter ended March 31, turning in 29 cents a share, falling short of revenue expectations with $713 million in revenue. The Street expected 29 cents a share in profit and $721.95 million in revenue, according to Multex.com.

Qualcomm also lowered its sights for third-quarter earnings to 21 cents a share, a dramatic step down from current Multex.com analyst estimates of 32 cents. That drops full fiscal year expectations to $1.05 in earnings, 20 cents off Multex.com's $1.25 earnings figure. CEO Irwin Jacobs trimmed the company's hopes for calendar year 2001 handset sales that use Qualcomm's CDMA technology, one of several competing wireless standards, from 90 million to 80 million. Jacobs blamed "slowing sales and replacement rates related to economic conditions," for the pullback

Qualcomm's revenue grew only 4% sequentially and 10% over the year-ago quarter. The holder of key wireless technology patents reported that it delivered the anticipated 16 million chipsets this quarter, but would not achieve its recently reaffirmed guidance of 16 million chipset sales in the third quarter. Qualcomm trimmed that number down to 14 million.

Management explained that orders were being cut across the board and that it wasn't attributable to one or two big customers. Qualcomm singled out the United States and Korea as trouble spots. "There weren't any order cancellations of any significance," explained CFO Tony Thornley. "Our customers give us regular forecasts that look out two quarters. Within the last week to week and a half, input from them began to add up to less than we thought before. " Qualcomm has 90% of its third-quarter orders secured, so Thornley stood by the 14 million estimate.

Third-quarter revenue also will suffer from ebbing royalty and investment income. Qualcomm booked $91 million from investment interest in the second quarter.

Those aren't the important issues, Wit SoundView analyst Matt Hoffman said. "I'm a little concerned because they didn't confess to all the market weakness we believe is out there," says Hoffman, whose company has not done banking for Qualcomm. "They are blaming it on a reduction in investment income and royalties, but we believe the end markets for CDMA are weak right now." Hoffman said he expects weak demand throughout the summer.

By 2002 Qualcomm expects a better economic outlook and increasing sales in its CMDA 1X bridge technology between older second-generation wireless and new third-generation networks to fuel a quick rebound. Nonetheless, along with wireless service leader NTT DoCoMo (NTT:NYSE - news) -- which delayed its third-generation service rollout from May to October this week -- 2001 is leaving wireless players in bandages.
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Ralph

Ralph
26.04.2001, 19:59
Wenn ich den nachstehenden Artikel lese, dann komme ich zur Überzeugung, dass QCOM einfach eine Loser-Aktie und ein Loser-Unternehmen ist ! .... für QCOM-Interessierte ist der Artikel sehr lesenswert ,wenn auch auf Englisch !

The More Things Change at Qualcomm, the More Analysts Stay the Same

By Eric Gillin
Staff Reporter
4/26/01 12:55 PM ET

Analysts are in a quandary about Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - news). Sure, they're dropping earnings estimates, talking about declining handset sales, a tough macroeconomic environment and slowing growth. But they're also reiterating strong ratings on a company that trades at 230 times earnings and rallied 30% from April 4 until yesterday's close.

In last night's earnings call, the company missed revenue targets but was in line with estimates. It gave lower guidance for the next few quarters and slashed handset targets. Analysts like Lehman Brothers' Tim Luke were nonetheless happy, looking at the company's crucial expansion into China as a major catalyst for growth.

Lehhman Brothers, which has done banking for Qualcomm in the past three years, still loves the company. Analyst Luke reiterated his strong buy rating and kept his long-term price target of $85 on the stock, which closed at around $63 yesterday. That said, he believes the stock could retest its lows in the $40s as investors react to the bad news.

Qualcomm, in morning trading, fell 8.8% to $57.47.

"Outlook for growth in 2002 remains positive," Luke said, citing China Unicom's (CHU:NYSE ADR - news) recent announcement of vendors and contracts for its planned build out of a Chinese code division multiple access, or CDMA, network -- something that could benefit Qualcomm, a pioneer in that technology. "Given the recent political uncertainty with respect to China, this is a significant milestone for the long term prospects for the global CDMA market," he wrote.

The company beat his revenue target of $699 million and met his earnings estimate, but forced the analyst to lower his earnings estimate when it warned about the second half of 2001. As a result, he reduced his 2001 earnings-per-share call to $1.05 from $1.20, and his 2002 earnings estimate to $1.29 from $1.45.

Merrill Lynch's Michael Ching struck a more moderate tone, keeping his buy rating, but telling investors that recent reductions in chip orders could cause earnings to be down from quarter to quarter. He dropped his 2001 estimate to $1.04, which is flat with 2000's earnings target. "We think inventory adjustments, product transitions and uncertain end markets all play a factor in this diminished outlook," he wrote.

Ching said there could be some catalysts for growth, like expanding CDMA to new global markets and introducing next-generation wireless technology to China. That said, his just reduced estimate calls for zero growth from 2000 to 2001.

Goldman Sachs' Nathaniel Cohn dropped his estimates as well, but kept his market outperform rating on the stock, telling investors that shares could face weakness in the near term because of that early April rally. Still, he sees upside. "Visibility into the rollout of CDMA in the summer and improved momentum in the fourth-quarter should drive the stock higher through the quarter," he wrote.
Au Contraire...

One analyst, Credit Suisse First Boston's Marc Cabi, said nothing nice about the company. Qualcomm might have crushed Cabi's revenue expectation of $687 million, but it wasn't enough to make the analyst change his hold rating on the company. Using company-provided guidance, he dropped his 2001 earnings estimate to $1.03 a share from $1.22, and his 2002 estimate to $1.25 from $1.55 and warned that Qualcomm faces some serious problems in the next few years.

According to the analyst, a lack of new CDMA networks and an over reliance on a few customers make the company more vulnerable when something goes wrong. The company's handset business is struggling, he said, telling investors that calendar 2001 shipments were trimmed back to 80 million units from 90 million. And the potentially explosive growth of the Chinese market is still just that -- potential. Cabi said Chinese subscriptions would be slower than expected, with no material royalties for its next-generation W-CMDA until 2004 or 2005. As a result, the analyst reduced his five-year growth target to an "at best" 25% from 30%.

And there could be even more bad news.

"Due to excess inventory in the channel and still aggressive replacement handset expectations, we believe the heavily reduced guidance could still see downward pressure in the September quarter," he wrote.
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Ralph, hin- und hergerissen !

Ralph
26.04.2001, 22:11
Also ich war heute wirklich hin- und hergerrissen von QCOM .... putten wollte ich sie, habe es aber dann gelassen.

Grund war die vehemente Verteidigung des 50 DMA bei ca. $58 .... obwohl dieser deutlich abfällt, als auch der 100 DMA in den nächsten Tagen den 200 DMA von oben nach unten schneiden wird ....... das technische und fundamentale Bild ist hundsmiserabel.

Und trotzdem gibt es genügend bekloppte Amis, die diesen "Hund" mit allem verteidigen, was sie haben.

Ich bleib' dran !

Ralph

Gert
01.05.2001, 19:18
Der Mobilfunkausrüster Qualcomm muss für zunächst unbestimmte Zeit auf Erlöse in Höhe von 1,7 Mrd.$ aus China verzichten. China Unicom hat entsprechenden Kaufverträge mit Motorola und Lucent über Mobilfunkausrüstung, die auf Qualcomms CDMA-Standard basiert, auf Eis gelegt. Qualcom erhält Lizenzgebühren beim Verkauf von CDMA-Equipment.

Die Aktie schüttelt diese Meldung ab und steigt um 3,2% auf 59,20$. Grund für die positive Entwicklung dürfte sein, dass Qualcomm Absichtserklärungen mit Alltel und der koreanischen Telson Electronics unterzeichnet hat, die Interesse an der CDMA-Technologie des Unternehmens zeigen.

Quelle: WO

Gert

Silke
01.05.2001, 19:50
Ich STREIKE!!!

Solange GERT nicht wieder Gertimaus wird.....solange streike ich!

Ich will mein Gertimäuslein wieder haben:cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry
MM

Ralph
01.05.2001, 19:52
Und genau diese Meldungen sind es, die einen bei QCOM kotzen lassen könnten ..... was die schon an Absichterklärungen erhalten haben, ohne überhaupt richtig vorwärtszukommen, ist schier abstrus ....... bis die mal richtige Erlöse aus ihren LOIs verzeichnen, ist die Technik längst veraltet.

Ralph

Silke
01.05.2001, 19:56
*lo,l* Ralph ich weiß das sich unsere Postings überschnitten haben.

Aber trotzdem klingt es witzig - sieht so aus als ob die Namensgebung von Gertimaus Märkte bewegt!

MM, jetzt wieder in den Schreibstreik eintretend :)

Gert
01.05.2001, 20:02
Hi MM,

mit dausend wird man reifer!!

Deshalb Gert von Dackel


Ausgemaust!!!

Gert

Gert
01.05.2001, 20:31
Hi MM oder Silke,

jetzt ist es persönlicher, wenn man endlich zu dir Silke im Board sagen kann!

Gert

Silke
01.05.2001, 20:42
Hi Gerti,

nachdem unser Matze so tolle Dinge machen kann - mußte ich es doch gleich ausnutzen. MM stinkt mir schon etwas länger, da sie nichtmehr unbedingt das Aushängeschild der HighTechs ist.

So und nun wird MM ihren Frieden finden :)!!

cu
Silke

Gert
18.06.2001, 19:03
Die Aktie von Qualcomm zeigt heute relative Stärke. W.R. Hambrecht hat die Beobachtung des Wertes mit einer Kaufempfehlung aufgenommen. Das Kursziel wurde auf 67$ festgelegt.

Zur Begründung wird darauf verwiesen, dass das Unternehmen weiter Lizenzeinnahmen und Chip-Umsätze im CDMA-Bereich generieren werde. CDMA ist das amerikanische Pendant zum europäischen GSM-Mobilfunkstandard. Einserseits werde der CDMA-Markt weiter wachsen, andererseits beginnt allmählich die Installation der Netzwerke der dritten Generation, bei denen die Positionierung von Qualcomm ebenfalls durch Patente abgesichert ist. Das Brokerhaus hebt besonders den für Qualcomm interessanen chinesischen Markt hervor . Langfristig! ist man extrem optimistisch, kurzfristig müssten die schwächeren ökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen überwunden werden.

Morgan Stanley hat heute die eigene „strong buy“-Einstufung bekräftigt. Und auch Lehman Brothers zeigt sich optimistisch, dass die Nachfrage auf der Linie der gemäßigten Ausblicke des Unternehmens liegt. Daher dürften die für das 3. Geschäftsquartal (Juni) zu erwartenden Zahlen erreicht werden.

Der Analystenkonsens liegt für das laufende Quartal bei 21 Cent Gewinn je Aktie. Vor einem Jahr waren 27 Cent erreicht worden. Im nächsten Quartal sollen 25 Cent erwirtschaftet werden.

Die QCOM-Aktie steigt um 3,8% auf 51,20$. Der 52-Wochen-Bereich liegt zwischen 42,75 und 107,81$.

Quelle: WO

Gert