Gold klingelt gerade

[Gerd]

Hallo zusammen,

es ist endlich soweit. Gold ist ausgebrochen. Es war 20 Jahre out, dafür wahrscheinlich die nächsten 10 Jahre in.


Gruß

Gerd:)

[Matze]

Jau Gerd,

bereits am 16.05.2001 konnte man bei MMM was bemerken:

MINNESOTA MIN'G/MFG MMM.NYS 125.50 6.22 2001-05-16

Matze

[KA111]

Hi Gerd,

ja, ich bin der Meinung, Gold ist durchaus wieder in.

Goldminen sind derzeit sehr stark überkauft. Also Vorsicht mit spontanen oder gar unlimitierten Käufen .

" Überkauft" heißt natürlich nicht, daß der Goldminen-Index - Freitagschluß bei 65,5 nicht noch weiter hochschießen kann - Platz ist da zunächst theoretisch bis ca 74 ( sagt uns der Wochenchart ).

Jedoch die Gefahr eines kräftigeren Pullbacks bis in den Bereich 55/57 ist durchaus sehr real.

Die Vergangenheit hat mir immer wieder gezeigt: Gold geht dermaßen schnell ab, wenn es mal steigt, dass man vorher drin sein muß. Hinterherjagen bedeutet bei dem oft kräftigen Pullback, man kauft seine Startposition schlicht sehr teuer, zu teuer und hängt dann bei dem allfälligen Pullback erst einmal auf einer Verlustposition herum.

Die Märkte sind wirklich eng. Die Marktkapitalisierung aller Goldminen zusammen (!) liegt bei etwa 45 MRD. USD. Wenn die Spekulation da mal reingeht, kam es in der Vergangenheit immer zu wahren Kursexplosionen, die allerdings in den vergangen fast 20 Jahren immer sehr kurzlebig waren.

Die Strategie sollte daher sein,
Pullback kaufen. Ich bin schon seit längerer Zeit ein Goldminenfan.


Hier der Index-Chart der NDX "Goldbugs". Huiiii, der heißt auch noch so, nämlich: HUI. Ist doch nicht schlecht gelaufen, oder?
Die Goldminen die er beinhaltet, die kleineren und mittleren amerik. Minen stehen darunter. http://www.securitytrader.com/bbshome/bbs_images/37096_HUI.gif

Wenn Markttechniker und Sentiment-Folger jetzt auf einen Pullback setzen, ist das okay. Goldminen sind immer sehr volatil! Sprichwörtlich.

Gold selbst hat sich von Dienstag - Auktion von etwa 650.000 Unzen durch die Bank von England von 267 in nur drei Tagen bis Freitag um etwa 20 USD auf 285,50 befestigt. Wie lange schauen die Engländer und andere Nationen eigentlich noch zu, wei ihtre Zentralbanken Volksvermögen verschleudern?
Die Inflation ist alles mögliche, aber so tot wie sie von offiziellen Stellen gesagt wird, ist sie mit Sicherheit nicht ! Ganz im Gegenteil. Öl, Gold und Bonds geben den entsprechenden Wink.

Mir fallen da die frühen siebziger Jahre ein. Damals stiegen nur Ölaktien ( wie heute) und Goldminen. Alles andere war das Trauerspiel pur.

Vergessen wir doch trotz aller Freude über Zinssenkungen nicht: das was der US-Durschnittshaushalt jetzt an Zinskosten einspart, muß er bei den stark gestiegenen Energiekosten wieder drauflegen.

Dieses traurige Ergebnis jedenfalls entspricht mit Sicherheit nicht dem, was Greenspan u.a. vor hatte, die Konsumbereitschaft und Ausgabefreudigkeit des Durchschnitts-Joes durch niedrigere Zinsen entsprechend zu stimulieren.
Und wer unbedingt glaubt, warten auf einen Pullback ist falsch, der sollte seine Nerven mit einem Sechstel der vorgesehenen Position beruhigen. Die anderen schauen zunächst einmal gelassen zu und denken dran, in den vergangenen 10 Jahren haben Anleger mit schöner Regelmäßigkeit die Finger verbrannt, die versucht haben, auf den fahrenden Zug aufzuspringen. Jedenfalls kurzfristighatten sie dann eine " Langfristige" Position auszusitzen und zunächst hat das ihnen dann überhaupt keinen Spaß gemacht.

COMMODITY TALK: The price of gold is up sharply owing to a number fo factors. First, there is talk of heavy fund buying from commodity trading advisors (CTAs). The CTAs are said to be buying on technical factors and on the notion that demand will increase as the economy rebounds. Second, there is said to be very little inventory at the COMEX, where gold trades, relative to existing open interest. This is raising the possibility of a short squeeze. Third, gold has recently lagged industrial commodities, which are now at a 2-month high and may now be simply playing catch-up. Also lagging recently has been copper, but it has suddenly gained sharply over the past few days, possibly indicating that laggard commodities are now likely to get pulled along to the upside. Fourth, the rally in gold is consistent with the behavior of the stock and bond markets. These markets have gained in anticipation of an economic rebound so a rally in gold may have been inevitable."

Gruß:)
KA111:)

[KA111]

Hi, Gerd,
ich stell Dir mal eine Zusammenfassung des derzeitigen Meinungsstandes zu Gold herein. Wäre toll, wieder einmal was von Dir zu hören , sprich zu lesen.

Explaining gold's rise even as the rally fizzles

By: Tim Wood

05/21/2001 01:00:00 PM

NEW YORK -- Gold bugs waiting for bullion to catapult higher thought their day of justice had arrived on Friday. The good news continued on Monday morning as Asian and European activity drove the spot price to an intraday high of $298.50 an ounce.
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Inevitably there has been profit taking. New York had little time to enjoy the best gains and the price was put down firmly in the late morning session. It was last trading at $286.45 an ounce and looked quite firm in that range.

The metal's volatility has been matched only by conflicting explanations for its behaviour.

The larger camp is bullish and supports a thesis for a trend shift in favour of gold. John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund believes the primary reason for gold's move higher has been the steady narrowing of the contango as lease rates have increased as interest rates have fallen. "It's difficult to justify being short. There's no money to be made from the carry."

It's a view echoed by Keith Goode of Bell Securities in Australia who wrote on Miningweb: "The gold producers have stopped forward selling because it is no longer profitable to do so. …instead they are delivering into their forwards and not renewing them."

However, that is contradicted by news from London that Australian producers, with 70 per cent of their reserves hedged, were selling aggressively once gold peaked over $290 an ounce.

Goode also said the change forced short covering and attracted funds to take physical positions in bullion, while gold funds are also enjoying renewed interest.

The problem is that nobody can say which funds are doing the buying; if at all. There is a good deal of scepticism that funds are buying when the price movement is seen as a consequence of a sterile computer shoot out. ABN Amro analyst Tony Sutton-Pratt told Reuters that US institutions were doing most of the fund being.

Dealers have explained that when gold broke through $275 an ounce on Friday, automated stop-buy orders were triggered that drove the price further without any regard for fundamentals and context. You can take it for granted that the reference to fundamentals means gold is still seen as a no-hoper.

London based Jill Leyland of the World Gold Council is decidedly more upbeat. She concurs that there is a difficult to discern but fundamental change in the gold market. She cites recent research by Jessica Cross that highlights a declining supply of new gold for lending. The heaviest sellers are seen as having less metal at their disposal after bouts of heavy selling and with fellow banks committed to the 1999 Washington Agreement.

Donald Eckert, global bullion risk manager at JP Morgan Chase (who self-deprecatingly describes himself as Gata's idea of the gold market's Hannibal Lecter), says much of the latter part of the rally can be interpreted as a momentum event. "It was unsustainable."

He was not alone in that view with a number of analysts and fund managers pointing to technical reasons for gold to have drawn buying activity. The problem is that the same charts signalled "overbought" very quickly on Monday.

So the best explanation we've heard is this melange - since March gold has been tracking higher based on a diminishing contango related to the health of the US economy and declining gold loans. That persuaded gold shorts to start cautious covering and once the key $275 resistance level was breached, technical indicators attracted additional buying.

With technical factors overwhelming sentiment closer to $300 an ounce, there is no reason to expect gold to be able to breach that barrier. However, there is clearly a new level for the metal above $280 an ounce and that's a perfect base for steady steps higher.

That said, let's not forget that the last time gold escaped it was back in captivity six weeks later. But here's hoping.

Gruß
KA111:)

[KA111]

"Sentiment has changed among many of the big market players" : Ted Arnold, Prudential-Bache International




Es wird gerätselt, wo der Support, der neue Boden von God liegen könnte, denn getan hat sich ja etwas. Wir hören es täglich auch aus Deutschland, nicht nur den USA die Inflationsraten wandern wieder hoch, nachdem sie einige Jahre auf einem absolut ungewöhnlich niedrigen Level verharrt haben. Auch Öl bleibt eher fest. Die Opec wollen auf ihrem Gipfel im Juni die derzeitigen Fördermengen nicht ausweiten. Was unbedingt im Zusammenhang mit Gold beachtet werden muß ist der Dollar. Der steigt gegen alle Erwartungen, weil die USa - glaubt man- sich schnell erholt und die EU erstmal dem Abwärtspfad folgt.
Hier ein interessanter Artikel über die kurzfristigen Goldaussichten. Wie in jedem Markt gehen die Meinungen immer auseinander. Who cares? Fakten sinds es, die zählen, Chartpunkte, technische Verfassung ( akut stark überkauft) Sentiments, Psychologie und natürlich Mr. Zufall aus dem Chaos-System.
Gold has 'new floor' at $275/oz - UK analysts



By: Ken Gooding


Posted: 05/22/2001 09:00:00 PM | © Miningweb 1997-2001


LONDON - In London, the mood among gold market analysts has changed from one of overwhelming gloom to cautious optimism. But they certainly are not talking about the gold price romping away well beyond US$300 an ounce.
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Significantly, Ted Arnold at the Hamburg Metals division of Prudential-Bache International, long seen as a big gold bear, is now talking in mildly bullish terms. "Sentiment has changed among many of the big market players," he says, "and the weight of funds will now be playing the market actively and generally on the long side. And, as all traders know, sentiment is everything in the gold market. When it changes, fundamentals have little relevance to what is happening in the market."

Arnold suggests that US$275 an ounce has become the new "floor" for the price and the upper end of gold's trading range is now probably $310 to $320 an ounce – "a wider and more volatile range than the $260 to $272 we have been looking at for months on end."

However, never one to ignore the downside of any argument about gold, Arnold reminds us that India, where there is about 15'000 tons of gold ready to be sold in the right circumstances, is very price-sensitive and there will be heavy disinvestment selling from that country when the Indians judge the Western world's gold price to be near its peak. Also, central bank sales of gold are likely to continue at 500 to 600 tons annually for some years.

Tony Sutton-Pratt at ABN Amro says the spike in the gold price has already cut demand for bullion, particularly from India, sharply. "The price rise is unsustainable," he adds, but says it is too early to say where the price might settle. But "I can't see demand picking up again unless there is a fall of, say, $15 (an ounce)." Some central banks will probably be encouraged by the higher price to step up bullion sales. On the other hand, the modest contango, or cost of borrowing gold, of 2 per cent, is discouraging forward selling by producers and speculators.

John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS Warburg, sees trouble ahead for gold. He points out that at least two million m ounces, and probably three million ounces, was bought in the last two working days of last week. So, "although the short term direction of the gold price remains hard to call, it is difficult to see how a speculative market that is long around three million ounces cannot be bearish for the near term, especially if the still-elevated volatility attracts some option sellers as well."

Analysts remain puzzled about what set the price off on its upward journey. One rumour is that another big gold company is in trouble with its hedge book. Another is that the rise was the result of a carefully orchestrated ambush by some speculators who first bought options on gold shares and then contrived to boost the gold price temporarily to put those options in the money. Some suggest it was no coincidence that gold took off at a time when many London dealers were away in Istanbul at the London Bullion Market Association's seminar and trading was very thin. "It is only when the Europeans returned to work on Monday that things steadied," one said. "There is no bull run on the cards – it has been a professionally driven spike."

Pru-Bache's Ted Arnold does not subscribe to this theory. He says US$275 an ounce was a "magic number" that triggered automatic "buy" signals in the computers of many specialist gold and commodity funds. Then some dealers helped the price along. "Some big players in all markets see a price near a chart point and know there is money to be made if they can push it through that point. That's what happened in this case."

Gruß
KA111:)

[KA111]

Na, wo wir gerade dabei sind hier noch einer. Hier werden eher die größeren Zusamenhänge - interessant dargestellt:

Don't forget the dollar

(May 22, 2001)

This time the increase in the price of gold could be sustainable
There is a high probability that the recent rise in the gold price has been in response to inflationary fears. If this is the case, then the price of gold could rise substantially in the short to medium term and we are in a bona-fide gold bull market. However, there is a rumor that the Bank of England may cancel the balance of its bi-monthly gold auctions. If that is indeed true, and if that is what has caused the gold price to rise, then the rally should peter out soon after an announcement is made.

Perspective
In 1999, the gold price jumped because of the Washington Agreement. When the European Central Banks announced their decision to limit the amount of gold available for lending, and put a cap on the amount of gold that they would sell in the following five years, the market panicked. Gold spiked from $255 an ounce to over $325 before falling back.

Since then there have been only two rallies that resulted in noteworthy price increases: February 2000, when gold moved from $283 to $310, and again in June, from $272 to almost $292. However, on balance, the gold market has been fairly monotonous, declining from $290 an ounce in the beginning of 1999 to $260 an ounce by the first quarter of 2001. This 10% decline in the gold price was due to the 12% increase in the dollar exchange rate during the same time - nothing more, nothing less.

Lease rates
In the last week of February this year something else started happening, something that had not occurred since mid 1999 and could portend gold’s future to some extent. In 1999, 1-month gold lease rates started moving up dramatically from just over 1% in June and peaked at almost 10% after the Washington Agreement was announced in September. This dramatic increase in lease rates (essentially the interest rate charged on gold loans) indicated that there was a substantial short-term demand for physical gold that could not be met unless the price increased. And so the gold price did increase, to over $325 an ounce.

Since then, with one short-lived exception, the short-term lease rate has not shown any significant activity until February this year; this time rising from just over 1% to more than 6% by March 9th. During “peaceful” times, when the gold market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, 1-month lease rates usually hover around 1%. Since February 23rd, the 1-month lease rate has averaged over 2.5%. This is at least 100% above the typical gold lease rate and again indicates very strong demand for physical gold. But why?

This time could be different
I will probably only understand next week, what happens this week, but in lieu of hindsight I will attempt a prognostication. What drove the gold price up in 1999 was a classic short squeeze; gold had to be bought in a hurry. What is different this time, is that there is no indication of a short squeeze. Instead, there is the fear of inflation. Traditionally gold is the barometer of the financial world and a leading indicator for inflation, in any currency. It appears as if the yellow metal is fulfilling its task with pinpoint accuracy yet again.

Rate Cuts
The gold price jumped up $4 an ounce on May 16th, the day after Alan Greenspan announced yet another 0.5% cut in interest rates. Greenspan has cut the Federal Funds Rate by 2% since January from 6% to 4% and the Discount Rate by 2.25% from 5.75% to 3.5%. This indicates several things.

Bad news!
Greenspan must be really, really concerned about the US economy to cut rates so aggressively. That cannot bode well for the US stock market, bond market or the US dollar.

Inflation
Last year the money supply in the US, as measured by M3, grew more than 9% and that was while the Fed was raising interest rates. This year alone, the money supply has increased by 4.34%, which is already over 10% on an annualized basis. Alan Greenspan’s easy money policy, in addition to historically high oil, gas and electricity prices, and an increasing wage cost index, are surely inflationary.

Further evidence for inflation comes from the fact that even though the Federal Funds Rate and the Discount Rate have been cut drastically this year, the yield on 30-year US Government bonds has actually increased. The bond market is telling us in no uncertain terms to watch out for inflation.

The market is working against the Fed
This also works against Greenspan’s attempt to boost the US economy with lower interest rates, since the market is not allowing medium to long-term interest rates to drop. In effect, the only consequence of Greenspan’s interest rate cuts is to boost the profit margins of the banking sector.

Deflation
A deflationary push could come from the evaporation of savings if the stock market crashes. My suspicion is that we will have a severe stock market correction at some point; however, if Greenspan senses a deflationary threat he’ll know exactly what to do… Pump more money into the system! Therefore, even if we do experience a short period of deflation, it is likely to be followed by even worse inflation than what we would otherwise have had.

The end of the bear market for gold
Assuming that the price of gold increased due to inflationary fears, then this would be the first time since 1996 that the price of gold has rallied for the right reason. Short squeezes, while they make for good spectator events, rarely turn out to have endurance. Inflation on the other hand, because it erodes the US dollar, could cause a sustainable increase in the gold price.

Another possibility
Unfortunately nothing is ever quite as simple, or as easy as that. I have heard a rumor that the Bank of England may cancel the balance of its bi-monthly gold auctions. If this is in fact true, it could cause the gold price to rise when it is eventually announced and unless, by coincidence, we also see a decline in the US dollar, the gold rally will surely be over shortly thereafter. Could the Bank of England be concerned about inflation?

Leaked information
In 1999, gold lease rates started climbing almost three months before the Washington Agreement was announced, indicating that a substantial amount of capital knew about the impending announcement and the impact it would have on the gold price. Lease rates have been extraordinary high for the past three months and now a rumor has surfaced that could cause the price of gold to spike once again. Coincidence?

The dollar remains the key
Either way, it doesn’t really matter because if the US dollar does not decline, any rally in the price of gold should be short lived and when the dollar does decline, the price of gold should rally regardless of what the Bank of England decides to do.

Worldwide inflation
Of course, if there is worldwide inflation, or even just the threat of worldwide inflation, then we could see a sustainable rally in the gold price against many currencies. Under such circumstances the gold price would increase even if the dollar exchange rate did not change appreciably. This may in fact happen; we have decreasing interest rates in both Europe and North America, and we have historically low interest rates in Japan. These economies make up the bulk of the world’s GDP. Furthermore, a slow-down in the US economy could have ripple effects throughout the world. In order to mitigate the effects of a US downturn, many countries may stimulate their own economies with an increase in money supply, thus essentially creating worldwide inflation.

A personal note
I am biased and I have been nervous about the US dollar for a long time. My gut feeling is that the recent rise in the gold price is due to the threat of inflation and is pointing to future weakness in the dollar. It appears to me that the bear market is over and the bull market in gold has already begun.

Paul van Eeden

Quelle:http://www.pve.net/artcls.htm

Gruß
KA111:)

[foxy]

Eine goldige Versuchung
Es ist schon eine seltsame Sache - das mit dem Gold. Erst tut sich lange Zeit nichts, dann plötzlich gibt es einen ruckartigen steilen Anstieg und danach fällt wieder alles in sich zusammen, so war es zumindest in der zurückliegenden Jahren.


Jetzt gab es wieder einen deutlichen Schub nach oben. Der Goldpreis erreicht ein Elfmonatshoch. Aber wie geht es nun weiter? Ist nach einem kurzen Kursfeuerwerk erneut alles vorbei und der Goldpreis setzt seine seit vielen Jahren andauernde Talfahrt fort?
Die letzte große Goldhausse gab es im Herbst 1999. Damals schoss der Kurs von rund 250 auf etwa 325 Dollar je Unze. Im Frühjahr dieses Jahres wurde dann der Tiefpunkt fast wieder erreicht. Stand derzeit: rund 285 Dollar.

Die wirklich glänzenden Goldzeiten liegen allerdings bereits mehr als 20 Jahre zurück. In den Siebzigern wurde vermutlich das gelbe Metall zum letzten Mal von Anlegern als Investment gekauft.

Dafür gab es gute Gründe: Die Inflation war in den meisten Staaten ein echtes Problem. Und wenn die bunten Papierscheinchen immer weniger wert werden, dann besinnt man sich doch gerne auf die wahren Werte.

Kein Zufall ist es deshalb auch, dass der jetzige Goldanstieg nahezu zeitgleich mit der fünften recht aggressiven Zinssenkung durch die amerikanische Notenbank (Fed) zusammenfällt. Die Käufer am Goldmarkt fürchten offenbar, dass Fed-Chef Alan Greenspan schon zu viel des Guten getan hat und dadurch die Inflation anheizt.

Die erst kürzlich bekannt gegebenen Verbraucherpreisdaten in den USA zeigen im April einen Anstieg von 0,3 Prozent an. Im Jahresvergleich sind dies immerhin 3,3 Prozent, was doch schon deutlich über dem Idealmaß von zwei Prozent liegt. Aber es ist trotzdem noch weit von einer galoppierenden Inflation entfernt.

Doch es kann ja auch andere Gründe für den Anstieg geben. Die Aussicht auf eine wirtschaftliche Erholung zum Beispiel. Schließlich steigt nicht nur der Goldpreis, sondern auch andere Metalle gewinnen an Wert. Jedoch war mit Gold auch kein Staat zu machen, als es der Wirtschaft noch prächtig ging.

Dies mag daran liegen, dass auch das Angebot - neben der Nachfrage der andere wesentliche Faktor bei jeder Preisbildung - recht hoch ist. Die Notenbanken weltweit horten rund 50.000 Tonnen Gold in ihren Safes. Der Bedarf ließe sich dadurch theoretisch wohl ein Jahrzehnt lang decken.

Der Fall des Goldes stoppte deshalb auch erst, als sich die europäischen Notenbanken einigten, jährlich nur noch 400 Tonnen zu verkaufen.

Aber die Chinesen. Die Ost- und die Südostasiaten sind wahre Goldliebhaber. An den Hälsen, den Fingern und nicht zuletzt in den Mündern hängt oder steckt der größte Teil der Jahresgoldproduktion. Insbesondere in China und Indien soll die Nachfrage in den kommenden Jahren rasant zunehmen - aber das hört man auch schon seit langer Zeit.

Somit: Es bleiben Zweifel, ob die jetzige Goldrallye der Beginn einer dauerhaften Aufwärtsbewegung ist. Doch hat bislang nicht jede Hausse mit solcher Skepsis begonnen? Vorsichtige sollten auf jeden Fall einen Rückschlag vor einem Einstieg abwarten.

In diesem Sinne, lassen Sie sich nicht ausstoppen...

von Thomas Schumm gefunden bei boerse-online.de

foxy

[KA111]

Es sieht so aus, als ob der Pullback auf den letzten starken Anstieg des Goldes noch nicht vorbei ist. Die Commercials, die per Saldo immer auf der richtigen Seite des Marktes liegen, haben derzeit eine realstiv sehr hohe Shortposition aufgebaut. Das bedeutet Engagements auch etwa in den Goldminen eilen derzeit absolut noch nicht.

Gold COT



As of yesterday, the Specs' position in gold futures was 55,000 long and and 11,800 short, with long positions increasing about 1600 and short positions decreasing about 2700 from last week.

Conversely, Commercials are 31,200 long and 99,700 short, a very large short position for the Commercials on a historical basis.

My guess is that gold will move lower before the longs start to raise their white flags again and the trend reverses to the upside.

Gruß
KA111:)