KA111
21.06.2001, 09:56
Das ist eine dramatische Strukturveränderung, die sich in diesem Jahr abzeichnet. Bedingt durch die japanischen Absatzschwierigkeiten im Ausland und die Ausweitung der Importvolumina wegen gestiegener Ölpreise könnte es sein, dass es in Japan in diesem Jahr erstmals seit meinem Menschengedenken:) zu einem Handelsbilanzdefizit kommt. Überflüssig zu sagen, dass das auch Auswirkungen auf die Entwicklungen der Währungen - und auf das am. Handelsbilanzdefizit - haben wird. Die japanische Wirtrschaft wird jetzt aggressiv den Ausgleich im Binnenmarkt suchen. Für die japanische Börse wären das u.U. ganz neue Konstellationen.
Internationale Investoren. für die USA und Europa derzeit als Investitionsregion mehr oder weniger out sind, könnten sich - nicht zuletzt durch diese Meldung aufmerksam geworden- wieder verstärkt der Anlageregion Japan/Asien zuwenden. Was meint Ihr? Oder ist das ganze eine "Einjahresesfliege", weil der Rohstoff-Index CBR ( Commodities ) bereits wieder - spektakulär - unter Druck gekommen ist?
http://www.securitytrader.com/bbshome/bbs_images/41856_CRB.gif
http://www.securitytrader.com/bbshome/bbs_images/41859_crbweek.gif
Oder wollen die Rohstoffpreise uns signalisieren, dass es jetzt erst richtig in Richtung Global-Rezession losgeht?
By Gillian Tett in Tokyo
Financial Times
Japan's trade surplus with the rest of the world has plunged 86 per cent as Japanese exporters have found it harder to sell their goods overseas and cheaper imports have flooded into the country, particularly from Asian countries such as China.
The finance ministry said on Wednesday that the total trade surplus was ¥80bn in May, down from ¥575bn ($4.7bn) in the same month last year, amid a 0.9 per cent decline in exports and 14 per cent rise in imports.
Although monthly trade data can be volatile, the trends reflect a longer-term shift in the trade trends. Some economists suspect that Japan could even post a trade deficit in the coming months.
"These kind of structural changes combined with higher oil prices could result in a trade deficit at some point this year," said Marshall Gittler, economist at Bank of America. "And though the markets haven't focused on this point, a deficit would certainly grab peoples' attention."
This marks a startling turnaround to the pattern seen in Japan in recent decades, when the world's second largest economy has been heavily criticised by its neighbours for running a large trade surplus. In particular, whenever the yen has weakened, both Asia and the US have complained that Japan was trying to compensate for the failure of its domestic economic policy by selling more goods overseas.
However, the trade dynamics are now slowly changing. In particular, a growing proportion of Japan's manufacturing operations have been shifting overseas. This, coupled with the recent slowdown in growth in the US and Asia, has contributed to weaker overseas sales.
At the same time, cheap imports have been flooding in from Asia, even though Japan's economy is weak: in the year to May, for example, Asian imports rose 15.2 per cent. This partly reflects higher global oil and chemical prices though another factor is the outsourcing of components production to the rest of Asia, where production is considerably cheaper.
This has already created some trade tension: Japan is embroiled in a dispute with China because Tokyo imposed temporary import curbs on items such as leeks earlier this year. China has since retaliated with curbs on cars, air conditioners and mobile phones.
However, most economists and business leaders in Tokyo believe that the trend of rising Asian imports will be difficult to reverse. Pro-reform groups argue the rising trend should be welcomed since it may spur more competition inside Japan.
The release of the data on Wednesday weakened the yen, something the government has repeatedly denied that it wanted to happen because it feared this would provoke more criticism from the US and Asia. However a decline in the trade surplus could undermine any criticism.
Äußert Euch doch einmal!
Gruß
KA111:)
Internationale Investoren. für die USA und Europa derzeit als Investitionsregion mehr oder weniger out sind, könnten sich - nicht zuletzt durch diese Meldung aufmerksam geworden- wieder verstärkt der Anlageregion Japan/Asien zuwenden. Was meint Ihr? Oder ist das ganze eine "Einjahresesfliege", weil der Rohstoff-Index CBR ( Commodities ) bereits wieder - spektakulär - unter Druck gekommen ist?
http://www.securitytrader.com/bbshome/bbs_images/41856_CRB.gif
http://www.securitytrader.com/bbshome/bbs_images/41859_crbweek.gif
Oder wollen die Rohstoffpreise uns signalisieren, dass es jetzt erst richtig in Richtung Global-Rezession losgeht?
By Gillian Tett in Tokyo
Financial Times
Japan's trade surplus with the rest of the world has plunged 86 per cent as Japanese exporters have found it harder to sell their goods overseas and cheaper imports have flooded into the country, particularly from Asian countries such as China.
The finance ministry said on Wednesday that the total trade surplus was ¥80bn in May, down from ¥575bn ($4.7bn) in the same month last year, amid a 0.9 per cent decline in exports and 14 per cent rise in imports.
Although monthly trade data can be volatile, the trends reflect a longer-term shift in the trade trends. Some economists suspect that Japan could even post a trade deficit in the coming months.
"These kind of structural changes combined with higher oil prices could result in a trade deficit at some point this year," said Marshall Gittler, economist at Bank of America. "And though the markets haven't focused on this point, a deficit would certainly grab peoples' attention."
This marks a startling turnaround to the pattern seen in Japan in recent decades, when the world's second largest economy has been heavily criticised by its neighbours for running a large trade surplus. In particular, whenever the yen has weakened, both Asia and the US have complained that Japan was trying to compensate for the failure of its domestic economic policy by selling more goods overseas.
However, the trade dynamics are now slowly changing. In particular, a growing proportion of Japan's manufacturing operations have been shifting overseas. This, coupled with the recent slowdown in growth in the US and Asia, has contributed to weaker overseas sales.
At the same time, cheap imports have been flooding in from Asia, even though Japan's economy is weak: in the year to May, for example, Asian imports rose 15.2 per cent. This partly reflects higher global oil and chemical prices though another factor is the outsourcing of components production to the rest of Asia, where production is considerably cheaper.
This has already created some trade tension: Japan is embroiled in a dispute with China because Tokyo imposed temporary import curbs on items such as leeks earlier this year. China has since retaliated with curbs on cars, air conditioners and mobile phones.
However, most economists and business leaders in Tokyo believe that the trend of rising Asian imports will be difficult to reverse. Pro-reform groups argue the rising trend should be welcomed since it may spur more competition inside Japan.
The release of the data on Wednesday weakened the yen, something the government has repeatedly denied that it wanted to happen because it feared this would provoke more criticism from the US and Asia. However a decline in the trade surplus could undermine any criticism.
Äußert Euch doch einmal!
Gruß
KA111:)