Vollständige Version anzeigen : Analysen zu HUI und XAU
Hier mal zu Beginn eine Meinung zum Goldbugs - Index (HUI):
Habt Ihr sonst Analysten- oder gerne auch eigene Meinungen zu HUI und XAU?
;) Rein damit, bitte! ;)
Datum: 03.10. 08:48 Wer ist bullish für Gold?
Prozentsatz der Advisor, die bullish für Gold sind - Verlaufsdarstellung. Im Juni/Juli waren während des Gold Hypes, der bis an den Widerstand von 326 $ pro Unze Gold lief, kurzzeitig 80% der im Rahmen dieser Auswertung beobachteten Advisor bullish für Gold. Goldpreis im charttechnischen Widerstandsbereich + stark bullishes Sentiment für dieses Edelmetall = Indikation für zunächst fallende Notierungen.
Diese Rate hat sich jetzt wieder merklich abgekühlt.
Guter Thread, auch wenn ich Technik bei Gold manchmal mit grossem Fragezeichen versehe, zuviel wurde der HUI schon als Tot erklärt (im grossen Goldthread nachzulesen).
Man musst auch kennen was stehen hinter HUI und XAU ...
24.45% ... Newmont (NEM)
19.67% ... Barrick (ABX)
13.53% ... Anglogold (AU)
12.67% ... Gold Fields (GFI)
7.40% ... Placer Dome (PDG)
5.99% ... Harmony (HGMCY)
4.47% ... Goldcorp (GG)
4.28% ... Freeport McMoran (FCX)
3.96% ... Meridian Gold (MDG)
2.47% ... Agnico Eagle (AEM)
1.10% ... Apex Silver (SIL)
20.24% ... Goldcorp (GG)
19.61% ... Newmont (NEM)
15.02% ... Freept-Mcmo (FCX)
6.05% ... Hecla Mining (HL)
5.48% ... Harmony (HGMCY)
5.33% ... Glamis Gold (GLG)
5.24% ... Coeur D'alene (CDE)
5.15% ... Echo Bay (ECO)
5.09% ... Kinross Gold (KGC)
5.01% ... Meridian Gold (MDG)
4.79% ... Gold Fields (GFI)
2.99% ... N.A. (FCXpC)
XAU top 3 sind uber 55% gewicht und alle Hedged , mit PDG es macht 65% als Hedged.
HUI war naturlich nicht-hedged aber mit NEM dabei , es macht 20% Hedged
So , rein mit die charts und lass uns sehen wie die Boese Hedgers drucken der XAU ;)
Jawoll - rein mit den Charts! :hihi
And here we go again, alles dailies, 6 Monate:
Und noch der HUI....
Man sieht sofort: Ueberall böse Hedger! :gomad :p ;) :hihi
Der XAU dürfte aus meiner Sicht zunächst versuchen, sich in den Bereich 65 bis 66.20 vorzuarbeiten...dort wäre ein ganz gutes Niveau, ihn mit Ziel 55 zu 56.80 zu shorten...
SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
for Friday October 11th, 2002
A perfect day today as USERX closed between the 4.02 and 4.04 specified yesterday! I was too busy to watch, but the gold stocks sank at least 3% lower during the day, breaking through USERX 4.01, before recovering to close mixed to lower. It looked hopeless and then the buying came in. Today could have been the 35-39 cycle low. Furthermore, the 35-39 generated its "sell" signal for tomorrow. We are 35 trading days from the 8/21/02 low of 4.01. A tradable bottom will ONLY be confirmed when the 35-39 index generates a quick buy signal. We cannot get a buy signal tomorrow, but can get the signal on Monday for execution on Tuesday's close if prices rise to 4.08 or higher tomorrow and are above 4.09 on Monday. A very critical point. A failure to rise now would avoid the buy signal. I'm ready to buy, awaiting the confirmation, the signal.
Reprint 10/09/02 Update for Thurs 10th: Gold stocks were mixed today. To keep the indices moving in the expected direction, USERX could not rise more than 6 cents today, staying below one of the 35-39 back prices, 4.13. In the last few minutes, the gold stocks sold off, with USERX closing up only 3 cents at 4.09. That yielded a _1 on the index for today, a +36 on the velocity, and final index score +24. The 35-39 back prices for tomorrow are 4.28, 4.20, 4.04, 4.06, and 4.01 (the last low). If prices fall to 4.04 or below, the 35-39 index will generate a sell for Friday. Such a "sell" is often a bottom, but it is not really bullish unless a 35-39 buy signal follows shortly. A subsequent rise on Friday cannot generate a buy signal. It looks like Monday may decide the issue. We need to drop tomorrow, hopefully holding above 4.01, and then rise slightly by Monday's close.
Re-post of 10/08/02 Addendum for Wednesday 9th: Gold stocks fell moderately again today, with USERX dropping 21 cents (5%) to 4.06. Note that we are now well below the last 92-96 sell signal at 4.24 on 8/12/02. Today's fall was not surprising after yesterday's drop through the 16-20 index buy price at 4.44. The 35-39 back prices today were 4.20, 4.13, 4.28, 4.20, and 4.04. Therefore, we moved significantly towards the 35-39 sell signal with a _3 today! Tomorrow, the 4.20 drops out and is replaced by a 4.06. It will take a few more days to generate the 35-39 sell signal. Hopefully prices will only fall slightly tomorrow to below 4.04 (while staying above 4.01) to almost guarantee the 35-39 sell signal, ending the path's XXed Out (predicted losing) trade that started a day off the high at 4.96. If prices can then stay around 4.09 for a few days, the 35-39 index will generate a DEFINITIVE and highly profitable true buy signal. If the market fails to generate that buy signal AND falls below 4.01, the gold stock bear will be in full force. In other words, we're approaching another major critical point and I'm getting excited at a potentially superb system buying opportunity occurring within the next week. Note that my COMEX gold futures quote shows that December gold's low today was exactly at the price needed to fill in the up-gap that I have been mentioning, 318.5. There is no requirement that gold cannot go a little lower than that, but the downside gap target was filled today!
Reprint of 10/07/02 Update for Tuesday 8th: Gold stocks fell moderately today, with USERX dropping 18 cents to 4.27. It was just yesterday that I indicated that I would Update again when prices rose to approach a 16-20 index sell signal or if prices fell to approach a 35-39 sell signal. I furthermore reported that it appeared UNLIKELY that prices would fall to the 35-39 index. So, instantly, prices fell enough to hit the 35-39 index and I am writing again! The 35-39 back prices today were 4.24, 4.20, 4.13, 4.28 (the wave 1 high from 8/15/02, the area of the "clear" 92-96 index sell signal), and 4.20. The market therefore fell perfectly to below that 4.28 high, hitting the 35-39 index.
I had also stated that it would be particularly bullish if prices fell to generate a 35-39 sell signal, but then held to generate a new, on-the-path, non-XXed Out, 35-39 index buy signal (a true buy signal). But the time for those events seemed to elapse on Friday, so I doubted that it would happen. Why? Because the 35-39 back prices would begin to FALL by tomorrow. Tomorrow the 4.24 drops out of the 35-39 back prices and is replaced with 4.04. Four other low prices between 4.01 and 4.09 then follow. Although today's drop broke the 35-39 index at a +3, it's now going to be extremely difficult for prices to fall enough to generate the 35-39 sell signal AND then immediately generate the hoped-for buy signal. It now looks like prices would need to fall to close to the wave two low at 4.01 (8/21/02) and then rise slightly to generate both the sell and buy signals within the next 10 days. Prices will need to fall and hold perfectly for that scenario to occur. Obviously, it still can do it, but the behavior needs to be perfect.
I hope that some readers used the 4.42 stop that I suggested yesterday. For those readers using a 9-day time stop, there are 6 more difficult days to go to see if prices will end up higher than the 16-20 index buy price of 4.44. Elliot wave theory clearly states that if we are in an up-trend, prices should not fall below the wave 2 low of 4.01. Note that if prices do fall below 4.01, prices would still be allowed to rise significantly (the new 35-39 index buy signal) before a further decline would be expected to occur. The gold stocks have continued to decline despite the resiliency of gold, which is not a good sign. Risk aversion appears to be the continuing order of the day in the markets and if you know me, I've been preaching risk aversion for more than one-year now. Be careful. The gold stocks are not in a true bull market (yet?). They definitively are set up for a POTENTIAL bull market in a few months from now, but my system remains on an XXed Out 35-39 index buy signal.
A 2-way intersection
Gold Futures Report
Oct. 14, 2002
Immediate support: $316-$317
Immediate resistance: $319
December gold has arrived at a 2-way intersection between a 12-week rising trend channel bottom and a 20-week parabolic bowl. This intersection takes place between the $316-$317 levels, which have so far held up despite heavy selling over the past few days. The critical test of this important chart zone will likely occur on Monday as $316-$317 is tested once again. A successful test followed by a bounce higher should lead to an upside rally in gold, perhaps testing the upper region of the 12-week trend channel. Note the daily chart below.
The chart above shows December gold at its critical intersection as gold approaches the $316 benchmark. An even better view of this important test is found in the tick chart below. Note the recent floor at $317 and the rim of the parabolic bowl between $316-$317. Gold cannot afford to penetrate $316 this week, otherwise it risks a much greater decline as both bowls will have been broken. However, once $316-$317 has been successfully tested, there is every reason to expect a move to at least the recent pivotal area of $320-$324 and possibly higher. The tape will tell all in Monday's trading session.
TSI Market Alert #104
18 October, 2002
One month ago we were very unenthusiastic with regard to the major gold stocks. Our view, at the time, was that most of the stocks had minimal upside potential and short-term downside risk of around 30%. As such, we suggested that any new buying be focused on the junior gold stocks where the downside risk was small compared to the upside potential. We also noted that we had, for our own account, been 'lightening up' on the large-cap gold stocks and increasing our exposure to some of the juniors.
Towards the end of last week we became more enthusiastic about the short-term prospects for the gold sector in general, noting at the time that the plunge in gold stock prices on 10th October was potentially a successful test of the 26th July low. After yesterday's action in both gold and gold stocks we are now even more enthusiastic.
Yesterday (Thursday 17th Oct) the HUI once again spiked below its 200-DMA, only to once again rebound and close above it. Furthermore, the December gold futures contract dropped to within a few cents of its 200-DMA before rebounding. Note that on 10th October the HUI bottomed at 102 while December gold bottomed at around 317. On 17th October the HUI bottomed at 106 while December gold bottomed at 310. That is, a $7 drop in the gold price was accompanied by a higher low for the HUI. This is the scenario (the gold price making a lower low while gold stocks make higher lows) that we clumsily tried to describe in yesterday's Interim Update. It is a positive divergence.
We had planned to add Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS) to the Stock Selections List on a drop to US$0.90. The stock is holding up quite well and probably won't fall that far, so we'll add it immediately at US$1.17. For those who don't already have positions in these stocks, Kinross Gold (AMEX: KGC) and Cumberland Resources (TSX: CBD) look attractive at yesterday's closing prices (US$1.66 and C$2.15 respectively).
The copper price was very strong on Thursday and has risen by 6% over the past 2 weeks, so the inconspicuous bull market in commodities continues to broaden out. A daily close above 0.7150 in December copper futures would be a very significant upside breakout (the contract closed at 0.6970 on Thursday).
Steven Hochberg sieht in seiner Analyse vom vergangenen Freitag die weitere Entwicklung des XAU nicht so positiv wie viele andere. Dieses kurze Zitat belegt das:
As discussed, eventually the index should break the 54.67 low (Jul. 26) and the 41.61 low (Oct. 2000) prior to the bear market ending. A break below 58.73 would indicate that the index was continuing to subdivide lower
Als Kontrapunkt zu den weit verbreiteten XAU-Optimisten vielleicht bedenkenswert...
Text noch zu dem Chart, gleiche Quelle:
The [XAU] appears to be offering the "one more down-up sequence" .... After respecting the 50% retracement level ..., the index declined to 67.40, then rallied in what looks to be the final subdivision of wave 2. A likely termination for this leg would be the .618 retracement of wave 1 at 70.23. The upper end of resistance remains 71.21, a previous fourth wave high. A break down below resistance at 63.40, the October 31 low, will signal that wave 3 has definitely started
Ev. kommt der Text noch von Riva, den Chart hab ich mir schon mal geschnappt:p!
syr :rolleyes: :) :)
Prepare for the Breakout
25 November, 2002
I am bullish of gold, as is known by readers of my articles. Bob Moriarty, Joseph Granville, Richard Russell and many other influential pundits are bullish of gold. Robert Prechter is bearish of gold, at least over the intermediate term, although bullish longer term. This intermediate term bearishness by Prechter and his Elliott wave organisation is a source of deep disquiet to many actual and prospective gold and gold share investors. As Richard Russell pointed out a few weeks ago, we are only ever dealing with probabilities in this business and the only person who gets it correct all the time is a liar.
I believe that Prechter is wrong on this occasion with his intermediate forecast for gold. My studies of the volume patterns in gold stocks over the past year, in addition to the price action lead me to conclude that the bull market in gold and gold stocks is here now. Only time will tell who is right. Prechter's gold bearishness is based on his deflation scenario and while I agree with him over the longer term, that half point drop in interest rates a couple of weeks ago, taken in the context of all that has gone before, tells a very different story.
The message that drop in interest rates broadcast to anyone who really understood its implications was this - "We will die, and take everyone with us, before we take the medicine." The financial authorities responsible for this action know that unless they keep interest rates low and print money like confetti, there will very quickly be gridlock, a credit crunch, implosion and deflation, which would have immediate implications for their position and reputation as individuals. So they have decided to put off the day of reckoning for as long as possible and continue to feed the ever-more-voracious out-of-control credit monster that they have created. They have decided to take the inflationary way out, but the problem is that the demands of this monster are now so great, and growing exponentially, that no matter how many bonds they create, no matter how much money they print, in the end they won't be able to keep up with it - and international investors can only be soaked so much, especially when they wake up to the fact that they are about to get creamed by a falling dollar.
These are very unusual times. Businesses in the USA and many other countries have very little pricing power. The moment they try to raise prices, in swoop the South-East Asian products manufactured in sweatshops - beat that for competitiveness! Isn't globalisation wonderful? You want free markets - you got 'em! But the US financial authorities have one last card to play to overcome that problem: collapse the dollar and price out the imports! This also has the advantage of collapsing the value of US dollar-denominated investments held by foreigners, effectively defrauding them out of a sizeable chunk of their investments - this is the way to deal with gormless creditors!
There's just one problem with this crafty plan, which will take the edge of it a bit. Other countries have thought of it too, hence the phenomenon of what is known as "competitive devaluation." in other words, the global ballooning of un-backed money supply and liquidity. More money chasing the same amount of goods, not just in the US, but in a lot of countries. Inflation. The US authorities, by mushrooming the money supply and crashing the dollar against other currencies, may be successful in improving the pricing power of US businesses on the domestic front beyond their wildest dreams - by creating hyper-inflation. Whichever way you cut it, paper money and the vast array of IOUs such as bonds, shares etc will become increasingly worthless. That only leaves one money - real money - gold.
Eventually all this will lead to a monumental credit crunch, in effect, a global default. Vast debits and credits will simply have to be erased, written off. Maybe those people in the states taking on huge mortgages aren't so dumb after all - they may end up on the street, but they are currently enjoying assets that they may never have to pay for! This will be the time of the great deflationary depression, a necessary purging process that has to be faced sooner or later. The fact that they keep engineering ways to stave this off for as long as possible only ensures that it will be that much worse. This will be the corrective phase that lays the foundation for renewed real growth.
While gold has marked out a large triangular pattern, which I believe to be a consolidation area, not a top, since it peaked in June, many investors have been driven out of gold shares by fears of the power of the "anti-gold cartel," Prechter's prediction or plain impatience. The result is that many gold stocks, particularly the juniors, are once again trading at bargain prices - particularly considering what is likely to transpire in the near future. Regarding the alleged conspiracy to cap gold's advance at a "Maginot Line" at $325, I have this to say; a bunch of banks, even if backed by a government, are not going to stop a primary bull market in an important commodity. The banks said to be involved in any case face a severe problem with derivatives and huge debts that will turn sour.
British readers may recall a fiasco in the early 90's when the British government tried to defend the pound and keep it in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. At one point, in desperation, they raised interest rates 5% in one day to no avail - the power of the market was too great. This conspiracy to cap the price of gold, if it exists, has about as much chance of success as a hedgehog has of crossing the London orbital M25 on a Friday evening. I view the large triangle that has formed in the gold chart since June as a consolidation, pure and simple, which has unwound an overbought condition as shown by the 200-day moving average catching up with the price, thus putting gold in a good position technically to make a major breakout from the massive base formation which has been evolving since 1999.
The psychological importance of a breakout from this base, which will be indicated by a move above $340, cannot be exaggerated. A huge number of investors and a vast amount of capital will realize that this bull market is for real, it will no longer be a matter for debate, it will become an established fact. At this juncture, holders of bullion and gold stocks will naturally be loath to sell. A fresh wave of buying interest will encounter an extreme paucity of bullion and especially of gold stocks. It is worth pointing out here that the total value of all gold stocks in the world does not exceed the capitalisation of Microsoft, so there will be an extreme supply/demand imbalance.
While gold itself has basically moved sideways since its June high, many gold stocks, particularly juniors, have drifted back and now represent excellent value, particularly as a very big rise is believed to be drawing close.
An advantage that buyers of gold stocks have at this time is that relatively close stops can be set to protect capital in the event that I am wrong and there is a breakdown, with better than usual odds that they will not be triggered by a whipsaw move. This is because, while gold has consolidated in a triangle focusing in on the $320 price area over the past few months, many stocks have also stabilized around a price level, and can therefore be bought for a big move with relatively close stops.
I will provide a list of promising stocks with their stop-loss levels shortly in another article.
Kaufbeuren, Germany, 23 November, 2002
Sieht nicht so schlecht aus...oder eben doch...wie man's nimmt.
Das alles entscheidende Widerstandsniveau für die Hörnerträger ist das Hoch vom 22.11. bei etwa 66.30. Danach warten dann die 71...
Umgekehrt müssen die Pelztierchen sich wenig Sorgen machen, solange diese 66.30 halten. Irgendwo dort würde ich persönlich auch meinen Stop für shorts im XAU sehen - und ich bin immer noch short... ;)
Ganz einfach weil es in jeden Taschenband "Technische Analyse" passt:
Wunderschönes Dreieck, auf der Ausbruchseite wird einiges an Geld auf der Strasse liegen.... Mein Bauch meint auf der Longseite :rolleyes:.
Rive, vergiss XAU, zuviele Hedgies drin;):).
Cybersaay's HUI chart ... ausgebrochen oder fake ?? ... time will tell :D
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