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Alt 29.09.2008, 17:50   #916
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The Great Bank Rush of 2008: What's the Money For?

by: Ronald Pires posted on: September 29, 2008

So many in the media seem to have swallowed the Kool-Aid that this bailout is necessary (or that the economy will self-destruct in mere days), but is it really?

IndyMac (IDMC.PK), Countrywide (CFC), Washington Mutual (WM), Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman (LEH), AIG (AIG), Bear Stearns (BSC), Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) have all bitten the bullet, and the economy is still (sort of ... mostly) standing. JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) seem to have developed voracious new appetites for new subsidiary operations, and Goldman Sachs' (GS) and Morgan Stanley's (MS) (simultaneous) announcements that they are converting to bank holding companies seems to imply that they too have their stomach juices churning for new goodies.

So who's left? Who's hurting? Where is this great self-immolation going to come from? The fact is that it isn't.

A week ago we learned that we had to cough up $700 billion in a few days with no strings attached, when just a week earlier no one knew a thing about this lurking monster. Now, a week later, the world still hasn't ended and, well ..., maybe a third up front, and they won't pay their execs so much, and maybe a little equity stake for the taxpayers, and yeah, we all can watch things real close too. Hmmm. Maybe we'll even get some mortgage renegotiations tossed in? That would be nice.

Stop right there. No way on that last point. No mortgage renegotiations. The banks say it mustn't be done, and that tells us something very important. Since mortgage renegotiations are hands down the best way to put REAL value back into this troubled paper (and would be the most palatable solution for the public), the only reason there is for the banks insisting that this not be in the bailout is that the banks don't want these properties returned to their owners, and they don't want to keep them either. That means that the banks simply want to raise cash quickly. But for what? What's the money for?

Two weeks back on Black Monday, the market jumped off a cliff and Bank of America swallowed Merrill Lynch whole. It was such a big news day with so many stories that a little tiny item, but for a single sentence buried nine paragraphs down in a Financial Times article, went entirely overlooked. The sentence read, "The Fed also suspended rules that prohibit banks from using deposits to fund their investment banking subsidiaries." THAT should have been the day's headline, and everything that has happened since can be explained by that sentence.

The sentence of course refers to our FDIC-insured deposits. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 ended the strict separation of these deposits from unregulated investment banks, but even after that, only 30% of a bank's deposits could be used to back it's investment subsidiaries, and only 10% could back any individual subsidiary. Any more than that, even in the heydays of deregulation fever, was considered too risky to be backed by FDIC insurance.

All that went out the window on Black Monday. Merrill Lynch needed to be bought quickly and Bank of America was interested, but there was a problem. JPMorgan had gotten billions to back Bear Stearns' bad paper during that takeover, and Bank of America needed a similar deal. Trouble was that back during the Morgan-Bear deal, the government had $900 billion sloshing around in its accounts, but by Black Monday there was only $100 billion left that had not already been promised, and that couldn't be spared. In other words, the Fed had run out of money. That's when the deal was struck. Bank of America could use ALL of its FDIC-insured accounts as backing for Merrill's bad paper. The sale was made. Bank of America had its prize.

Of course, the Treasury couldn't just do this rule change for Bank of America; they had to do it for everyone, and all of a sudden, the entire landscape of banking had changed. Every bank that had FDIC-insured deposits was now worth a lot more money because its insured assets could now be effectively collateralized and used to back investment banking operations. Within days, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, seeking to stake their claims to the vein of gold that Bank of America had mined, converted from investment banks to bank holding companies. The Great Bank Rush of 2008 had begun.....


full story: http://seekingalpha.com/article/978...#comment-268471



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Alt 29.09.2008, 18:07   #917
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-> Posted by Auandag @ 12:00 pm on September 29, 2008
September 29th, 2008

How the Bailout Will Work


The scheme is actually pretty simple. Please forgive my primitive graphics abilities.
The fund will buy mortgages from the banks at market value, and then re-sell them back to the banks at a discount.
The fund will then repurchase those mortgages from the banks, who will sell them back to the fund again.
The same product (perhaps an ill-advised mortgage for a half-million dollars taken out on a house in the distant
suburbs of Las Vegas) will be bought, then resold, then re-bought and re-resold in an endless spiral of profit-taking.
The taxpayer will lose on every transaction, the banks robbing the treasury each time each mortgage, or
package of mortgages is swapped.

It is amazing to observe the greatest transfer of wealth in history, from Main Street to Wall Street,
from the many to the few. What is even more amazing is that nobody seems to be stopping it.
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Alt 29.09.2008, 18:29   #918
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Verfasst am: 29 Sep 2008 17:39 Titel: Spiegel Live-Ticker Wer es noch nicht gesehen hat, hier der Live-Ticker des Spiegels zur Finanzkrise:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,581087,00.html

Da ist ja heute mächtig was los, sind ca. 7-8 Banken, die da heute Probleme gemeldet haben und irgendwie gerettet worden sind !

Wer hätte noch vor einem Monat gedacht, dass es mal einen Live-Ticker zur Finanzkrise vom Spiegel geben wird

Viele Grüße
Banger
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Alt 29.09.2008, 18:40   #919
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Disappointment

-> Posted by sckpak @ 12:33 pm on September 29, 2008
How many times have we all had to listen to these politicians in Washington say “they are disappointed - but we have no choice if the financial system is to survive.”

The only thing that really changed since Paulson first came to blackmail the people is the size of the bill … instead of 3 pages giving total dictatorial control to the Treasury, the Congress increased the number of pages to 126 - full of double speak - where are the punitive measures?

If Congress wants to let Americans and the world to know that they are serious about change - pull the Chater of the Federal Reserve and issue US Notes.

****************************

...ich glaube auch - das Volk wird total verschaukelt
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Alt 29.09.2008, 18:43   #920
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La Dernière Bulle - The Last Bubble

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Alt 29.09.2008, 20:32   #921
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Alt 29.09.2008, 20:34   #922
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+++ EILMELDUNG +++

US- Repräsentantenhaus lehnt Rettungspaket ab

Abstimmungskrimi im Repräsentantenhaus: Die erste Kammer des US-Kongresses hat das 700 Milliarden Dollar schwere Rettungspaket für die Finanzmärkte ganz knapp scheitern lassen. Der Dow Jones rauschte in die Tiefe. mehr... [ Forum ]
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Alt 29.09.2008, 20:38   #923
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FTS - Bill defeated

-> Posted by butters @ 14:25 pm on September 29, 2008
Which means (according to them) we are going into the depression. Guess we skip the recession.

Buying in Swiss Francs

-> Posted by Rhodycb @ 14:39 pm on September 29, 2008
Swiss francs had major buying against the dollar after the bailout was rejected. Swiss francs and gold is what everyone is moving to.



Interesting

-> Posted by ipso_facto @ 14:37 pm on September 29, 2008
Nancy Pelosi’s “partisan” speech right before the vote is being blamed for the failure to pass.
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Geändert von lunar (29.09.2008 um 20:46 Uhr).
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Alt 29.09.2008, 20:42   #924
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Hallo Lunar,

hat doch etwas genützt, dass die Leute auf die
Strasse gingen ...

#354 bei salazie
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Alt 29.09.2008, 20:42   #925
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aknot
Registered User

Quote:
Originally Posted by anywoundedduck

Final Vote:

205 yes


228 NO !!!!!!


WOW !

Check out the live feed:

http://play.rbn.com/play.asx?url=csp...s?mswmext=.asx
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Alt 29.09.2008, 20:58   #926
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Zitat:
Zitat von Silverbay

Hallo Lunar,

hat doch etwas genützt, dass die Leute auf die
Strasse gingen ...

#354 bei salazie

die Reps. habe doch NAY gestimmt, weil ihnen auch die Beschränkungen und dadurch weniger Pfründe nicht gepasst haben (ist aber ausschliesslich meine Meinung :o), und natürlich auch die Wahlaussichten.....
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Alt 29.09.2008, 21:17   #927
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Zitat:
Zitat von Vetinari

2:30 pm : The NY Times reports that government leadership plans a second attempt to pass the $700 billion financial bill, which conflicts with a CNBC report that there is no possibility of a second vote.

The Volatility Index (VIX) spiked as much as 11.02 to 46.28, which is its highest level since 2002. The high levels of the VIX indicates greater uncertainty during the next 30 days.

CNBC gegen WSJ ... wer profitiert meist von geruchte


VIX spike ... aber gibts mehr oder sind alle schoen raus ?


Und dumme SEC ... ohne Shorties gibts kein Boese Shortie brenner mehr ... die Hedgies sitzen raus und gucken und warten ...


als naechste werden verkaufen verboten



...ich hab nix gefunden bei NY Times
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Alt 29.09.2008, 21:41   #928
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*************************BLACK MONDAY************************

* *
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Alt 29.09.2008, 21:44   #929
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Dow, Compq & S&P 500

-> Posted by Rambus @ 15:17 pm on September 29, 2008
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Alt 29.09.2008, 22:14   #930
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Zitat:
Zitat von Hoka

The US and global financial crisis is becoming much more severe in spite of the Treasury rescue plan. The risk of a total systemic meltdown is now as high as ever

Nouriel Roubini | Sep 29, 2008


It is obvious that the current financial crisis is becoming more severe in spite of the Treasury rescue plan (or maybe because of it as this plan it totally flawed). The severe strains in financial markets (money markets, credit markets, stock markets, CDS and derivative markets) are becoming more severe rather than less severe in spite of the nuclear option (after the Fannie and Freddie $200 billion bazooka bailout failed to restore confidence) of a $700 billion package: interbank spreads are widening (TED spread, swap spreads, Libo-OIS spread) and are at level never seen before; credit spreads (such as junk bond yield spreads relative to Treasuries are widening to new peaks; short-term Treasury yields are going back to near zero levels as there is flight to safety; CDS spread for financial institutions are rising to extreme levels (Morgan Stanley ones at 1200 last week) as the ban on shorting of financial stock has moved the pressures on financial firms to the CDS market; and stock markets around the world have reacted very negatively to this rescue package (US market are down about 3% this morning at their opening).

Let me explain now in more detail why we are now back to the risk of a total systemic financial meltdown…

It is no surprise as financial institutions in the US and around advanced economies are going bust: in the US the latest victims were WaMu (the largest US S&L) and today Wachovia (the sixth largest US bank); in the UK after Northern Rock and the acquisition of HBOS by Lloyds TSB you now have the bust and rescue of B&B; in Belgium you had Fortis going bust and being rescued over the weekend; in German HRE, a major financial institution is also near bust and in need of a government rescue. So this is not just a US financial crisis; it is a global financial crisis hitting institutions in the US, UK, Eurozone and other advanced economies (Iceland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc.).

And the strains in financial markets – especially short term interbank markets - are becoming more severe in spite of the Fed and other central banks having literally injected about $300 billion of liquidity in the financial system last week alone including massive liquidity lending to Morgan and Goldman. In a solvency crisis and credit crisis that goes well beyond illiquidity no one is lending to counterparties as no one trusts any counterparty (even the safest ones) and everyone is hoarding the liquidity that is injected by central banks. And since this liquidity goes only to banks and major broker dealers the rest of the shadow banking system has not access to this liquidity as the credit transmission mechanisms is blocked.

After the bust of Bear and Lehman and the merger of Merrill with BofA I suggested that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should also merge with a large financial institution that has a large base of insured deposits so as to avoid a run on their overnite liabilities. Instead Morgan and Goldman went for the cosmetic approach of converting into bank holding companies as a way to get further liquidity support – and regulation as banks – of the Fed and as a way to acquire safe deposits. But neither institution can create in a short time a franchise of branches and neither one has the time and resources to acquire smaller banks. And the injection of $8 b of Japanese capital into Morgan and $5 b of capital from Buffett into Goldman is a drop in the ocean as both institutions need much more capital. Thus, the gambit of converting into bank while not being banks yet has not worked and the run against them has accelerated in the last week: Morgan’s CDS spread went through the roof on Friday to over 1200 and the firm has already lost over a third of its hedge funds clients together with their highly profitable prime brokering business (this is really a kiss of death for Morgan); and the coming roll-off of the interbank lines to Morgan would seal its collapse. Even Goldman Sachs is under severe stress losing business, losing money, experiencing a severe widening of its CDS spreads and at risk of losing most of its values most of its lines of business (including trading) are now losing money.

Both institutions are highly recommended to stop dithering and playing for time as delay will be destructive: they should merge now with a large foreign financial institution as no US institution is sound enough and large enough to be a sound merger partner. If Mack and Blankfein don’t want to end up like Fuld they should do today a Thain and merge as fast as they can with another large commercial banks. Maybe Mitsubishi and a bunch of Japanese life insurers can take over Morgan; in Europe Barclays has its share of capital trouble and has just swallowed part of Lehman; while most other UK banks are too weak to take over Goldman. The only institution sound enough to swallow Goldman may be HSBC. Or maybe Nomura in Japan should make a bid for Goldman. Either way Mack and Blankfein should sell at a major discount of current price their firm before they end up like Bear and be offered in a few weeks a couple of bucks a share for their faltering operation. And the Fed and Treasury should tell them to hurry up as they are both much bigger than Bear or Lehman and their collapse would have severe systemic effects.

When investors don’t trust any more even venerable institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs you know that the financial crisis is as severe as ever and the fear of collapse of counterparties does not spare anyone. When a nuclear option of a monster $700 billion rescue plan is not even able to rally stock markets (as they are all in free fall today) you know this is a global crisis of confidence in the financial system. We were literally close to a total meltdown of the system on Wednesday (and Thursday morning) two weeks ago when the $85 b bailout of AIG led to a 5% fall in US stock markets (instead of a rally). Then the US authorities went for the nuclear option of the $700 billion plan as a way to avoid the meltdown together with bans on short sales, a guarantee of money market funds and an injection of over $300 billion in the financial system. Now the prospect of this plan passing (but there is some lingering deal risk the votes in the House are not certain) -as well as the other massive policy actions taken to stop short selling “speculation” and support interbank markets and money market funds - is not sufficient to make the markets rally as there is a generalized loss of confidence in financial markets and in financial institutions that no policy action seem to be able to control.

The next step of this panic could become the mother of all bank runs, i.e. a run on the trillion dollar plus of the cross border short-term interbank liabilities of the US banking and financial system as foreign banks as starting to worry about the safety of their liquid exposures to US financial institutions; such a silent cross border bank run has already started as foreign banks are worried about the solvency of US banks and are starting to reduce their exposure. And if this run accelerates - as it may now - a total meltdown of the US financial system could occur. We are thus now in a generalized panic mode and back to the risk of a systemic meltdown of the entire financial system. And US and foreign policy authorities seem to be clueless about what needs to be done next. Maybe they should today start with a coordinated 100 bps reduction in policy rates in all the major economies in the world to show that they are starting to seriously recognize and address this rapidly worsening financial crisis.

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