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Alt 20.04.2011, 00:45   #8191
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Trader Dan's Market Views



Silver moving higher on mediocre volume


In watching silver move up towards $44 in today's session, I am struck by the huge amount of air pockets above this market. Based on the manner in which is it moving up, there are simply not enough offers. I get the sense that would-be shorts in silver are terrified to step in front of this market. The dearth of sellers is allowing small bids to take the price up in big steps.

Coming on the heels of what was a huge volume day yesterday, I am a bit concerned about this. Right now it seems to be more a case of fewer sellers than it is a case of more buyers. I want to see the metal clear $44 and hold that level to feel a bit more comfortable about this and I want to see the volume pick up some. This market has come a long way and will need to see plenty of buyers even at these levels to keep it moving steadily upward.

A pause in the move would actually be healthy at this point. It could be that some of the shares are sensing this are a reluctant to jump higher waiting to see if the metal will pause and set back a bit or gather further momentum and just head to $50. Should the latter occur, we will see a rash of short covering in the silver mining shares.

Let's see how the metal fares the remainder of the trading day. If it clears $44, the volume should pick up.





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Alt 20.04.2011, 09:06   #8192
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Goldpreis knackt 1500-Dollar-Marke


Aktualisiert um 06:25 Uhr
Die Zuspitzung der Schuldenprobleme in den USA und Europa hat den Goldpreis erstmals in der Wirtschaftgeschichte über die Marke von 1500 Dollar getrieben. mehr »
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Alt 20.04.2011, 09:32   #8193
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19 April 2011

Riding the Silver Bull: Worry If It Gets to Triple Digits This Year

I had quite a few questions on this topic of when to sell silver this evening, based on a comment I made with the normal gold and silver charts. I indicated we could see a pullback and consolidation, and it might be 'impressive.' I was thinking of support around 40, maybe 38.

Unless there is a liquidation panic as we saw in 2008 then I do not believe it will be much more profound than that.

Someone brought this interview on this very topic to my attention, and I include it here for your knowledge.

I have a lot of respect for Jimmy Rogers. He is an intelligent man and a real gentleman. I think there is wisdom and experience in what he says.

I own gold and silver in various forms, but have no plans to sell any bullion for the foreseeable future. I may hedge a little for short term trading corrections, but not actually sell it until the fundamentals change, because there is too much 'friction' is buying and selling bullion.

And even with non-bullion holdings, there is the bigger problem that once you have sold and lost your position in a bull market, it is often very hard psychologically to buy back in. It is natural to wish your decision to sell to have been 'right,' and sometimes so badly that your emotions will tend to distort your perception of the market, causing you to make mistakes.

Too often we see people who have sold their positions early making all sorts of foolish comments and dire predictions, trying to get other people to join them and sell, because misery loves company. I will listen to anyone's reasoned opinion, but too often these fellows just talk nonsense and are nothing more than a distraction.

There might be quite a bit more upside in silver, and that $100 is a respectable longer term target if the dollar does not 'turn into confetti' as Jimmy Rogers says.

Gold and silver are heavily tied to the fate of the dollar in some ways, and I do not yet see a clear path for the US to reform its financial house yet. The dollar denominated debt is the last of the great credit bubbles, and that means the bonds and the currency itself.

And yet the dollar is not the be all and the end all, and this is the sea change that so many are missing. Even without inflation the price of gold and silver would likely increase because of the growing demand in the developing world, which demands its own stores of value.

No, the US will not default per se. But they can sure engineer a de facto default through monetary inflation, which is what they are doing now. And they will never admit it, and take all sorts of pains to disguise it, because that is the whole point of it, to gracefully extinguish the debt without a formal devaluation or crashing the system.

I also think that gold and silver are making up for lost time, for the twenty year bear market during which their price was beaten down, held artificially low through central bank shenanigans.

Most institutions and individual investor are underweight precious metals, at a time when they are probably needed the most as insurance against currency and financial default risks.

I began trading stocks, bonds, and options in the stagflation of the latter 1970's in the aftermath of the great bear market, and vividly remember what it was like, and how people viewed inflation hedges like gold and silver, collectibles, coins, income averaging your tax returns for inflation effects. And this is not it, not even close yet.

When the inflation concerns catch some wind in their sails, there is nothing like it. The bulk of the people and unsophisticated investors are convinced that deflation is either here or imminent. So Bernanke has smooth sailing for some time yet.

Here is what Jimmy Rogers has to say.

  • Eventually everybody's going to own gold, and then we'll have to sell our gold, but that's a long way from now.
  • If triple digit silver happens this year then we'll have a parabolic move and we'll have to sell, and all parabolic moves end badly. I hope it doesn't happen, because I own silver and want to buy more.
  • My hope for silver and gold and all commodities will go up for ten years in an orderly manner.



Posted by Jesse at 8:01 PM
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Alt 20.04.2011, 15:12   #8194
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Gold Breaches Nominal High Of $1,500/oz; Inflation Adjusted High Of $2,400/oz Remains Long Term Target

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/20/2011 07:44 -0400



Gold has breached the $1500 level and reached new record nominal highs at $1,505.65/oz. Since yesterday it has gradually risen in all currencies and is approaching record nominal highs in all major currencies. $2,400/oz is the inflation adjusted (CPI) high of 1980 and given the very uncertain macroeconomic climate of today and concerns about the dollar and all major currencies, arguably even more uncertain than the 1970’s, the real high remains a very viable target. It is important to remember that while gold has risen some 6 times in 11 years ($250 to $1500) it rose by 24 times in 9 years in the 1970’s – from 1971 to January 1980 ($35 to $850). This puts the recent reasonably gradual increase in gold prices in perspective and should give gold bears and top callers pause for thought.


by Sudden Debt
on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 08:32
#1187534
even a 4$ dip wouldn't catch my attention now.
Eyes to the horizon and straight on.


by goldfish1
on Wed, 04/20/2011 - 08:20
#1187502
Perhaps more informed reading on the subject is in order.
Jim Willie today:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1303243200.php
50 Factors launching gold
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Alt 20.04.2011, 17:32   #8195
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Reminder: Gold and Silver Option Expiration for May Is Next Tuesday

As a reminder, the Comex will have their gold and silver option expiration on Tuesday, April 26.

Due to a lax regulation of the markets by the CFTC, there are sometimes major price manipulation shenanigans associated with these events, and these sometimes during thinly traded periods of time.

Someone sent me this article. It makes a point about the calendar holidays which I had not noticed. Here is their follow up aricle.

Since much of the physical buying comes out of Asia, and most of the price manipulation seems to originate in London and New York, this could be interesting. Although the setup is there for a thin trade, it takes a look at the composition of the markets, and the actual details of the options and contracts held in balance to other things, in order to make any judgements.

I do know that quite a few specs are jiggy with their recent gains in silver. This makes a retracement possible if someone 'gets the ball rolling' as they say. On the other hand, I have seen fellows use option expiration to breakout metals and other instruments and beat the shorts mercilessly. It is hard to trade this sort of event reliably if one is not an insider.

I stopped trading on the Comex a few years ago, before I scaled back my general trading, out of sense of discouragement in the integrity of their markets. But it is hard to get away from it, since their trades feed into and affect so many other instruments like ETFs, etc. When one take a position in a short ETF like ZSL, for example, one is trading with the Comex by proxy I would imagine.

While I do not believe in 'hanging bankers' at all, I think some serious investigations, indictments, and prison terms for the guilty white collar criminals would do a great deal to stimulate the real economy by reining in the excessive fee-based taxes from the financial sector, and refreshing the price discovery and efficiency of the markets.

But the Obama Administration is reform adverse, especially while collecting its famous billion dollar campaign slush fund. You don't get that kind of money from the "Yes We Can" crowd. And most Republicans are unashamedly servants of the pigmen.
“'What are you willing to give me if I deliver Him to you?' And they counted out thirty pieces of silver." Matt 26:15
I am now flat in my trading account, and am not sure about putting on trades for the holiday weekend.



Posted by Jesse at 9:59 AM
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Alt 20.04.2011, 18:14   #8196
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Eric Sprott: "Expect The Gold To Silver Ratio To Hit Single Digits"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/20/2011 10:40 -0400

What the so-called silver ‘experts’ neglect to account for in their models and projections is that the fiat money experiment has failed. And in this context, we believe the Market has assigned world reserve currency status to gold - not USD, not EUR, and not JPY. In our opinion, gold’s continued appreciation vis-à-vis every currency is assured because the great flight from fiat has only just begun. Like gold, silver also has a long monetary history, and as such, investors are now also buying silver as protection from the ravages of fiat currency debasement. Yet, when compared to gold, it is silver that offers the most attractive value proposition by virtue of the gross mispricing of its scarcity, which, we might add, has existed for many years. Thus, in our opinion, as this new bimetallic standard takes root, silver investors will continue to be justly rewarded with marked outperformance. We truly believe that this is the investment opportunity of a lifetime, and increasingly so, others are taking heed. What is clear to us is that with equal investment dollars now flowing into silver and gold, the current 35-to-one ratio is unsustainable and has only one direction to go: lower.
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Alt 20.04.2011, 18:57   #8197
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SLV Is Now "Hard To Borrow" At Goldman

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/20/2011 12:23 -0400

And now for the latest news in the silver meltup: SLV just moved to Hard To Borrow status at Goldman Sachs. This pertains to institutionals who are Goldman Prime Broker clients. Soon coming to every prime broker near you. Comex margin hike imminent now that it is impossible to short the largest silver ETF in the world.

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Alt 21.04.2011, 00:23   #8198
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Hi Ho Silver and the Sagging Dollar

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_20.html


The move in silver is remarkable, not only in its magnitude, but in the relatively small notice of it being taken outside of trading circles.

We understood the big move in silver back in the day, as a result of the Hunt brothers attempt to corner the market. But what exactly is driving it now? Where is this buying coming from, and what does it mean?

I think there is a an untold story here, and I will be spending a little more time trying to get my mind around it, sifting through the rumours and other stories, to try and get to the bottom of it.

Yeah yeah silver is overextended. There will likely be a correction at some point. And every nitwit in the peanut gallery is going to say "I told you so" even though they told us so when silver was $20.

I have to admit I am absolutely in awe of this move. I would have never expected it to go this far, this fast. I would really like it to take a break, or for some news to come out to explain what is driving this. Silver is even leaving AAPL behind in the dust. It seems to be inversely correlated to Obama's popularity, and the Congress' integrity. Hm, maybe something to that.

I am holding all long term positions and am flat on the short term for the holiday weekend. I could be persuaded to take a position or two for the weekend but only if I see something worthwhile.







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Alt 21.04.2011, 02:18   #8199
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Trader Dan's Market Views

Silver blows through Resistance at $44




The silver market is now entering a parabolic phase, a phase that while it can bring enormous profits for those who are long, is also extremely dangerous for traders. Markets in this phase can generate price swings in either direction that will wrench on the gut and turn euphoria into near panic.

The breach of $44 was impressive enough but the fact that it has easily taken out $45 with relative ease suggests this market is on course for a run to $50. The rate of ascent could take it there by early next week but at some point, there will be a rush to ring the cash register. Just know that those who want to trade this mad market, had better be prepared for what they are getting themselves into.

What makes trading a market of this nature so difficult is attempting to place money management stops or at least mental stops. The extent of the price swings are so huge that stops placed too close to the last trade are prone to be taken out in a price retracement which then quickly ends only to see the uptrend resume leaving the trader sitting on the sidelines watching as he misses the rest of the ride higher. Place a stop too far away from the last price and it could wipe out one's margin before it gets triggered. In other words, attempting to set a risk parameter for the trade if it goes sour becomes almost impossible for all but those with very deep pockets whose accounts are well funded.



Volume has picked up on the breach of $44 as expected which has alleviated the concerns I expressed here yesterday as it seemed to be floating higher instead of being driven higher as it is in the process of being done today. I still see a very real fear among would-be shorts to step in front of this thing. A market making moves of 2-3% day after day is primed for a correction but no one wants to jump on the tracks in front of the freight train.

The gold/silver ratio continues to drop in favor of silver and is currently near 33.16 as I write this. It was down below 20 in late 79, early 1980. Could it go this low again? Yes, it could.

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Alt 21.04.2011, 03:54   #8200
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Alt 21.04.2011, 08:12   #8201
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20 April 2011

Silver: Eligible Versus Registered and About That Big Inventory Change at Scotia Mocatta

Let's refresh our understanding of the difference between registered and eligible status at the Comex.
"Comex has two categories of silver in its warehouse.

The eligible category means that the silver is in a condition that conforms to the standards of delivery. Size and quality of the bar in other words. It is being stored at the Comex warehouse, but is not offered for delivery into contracts.

Registered means that the silver is available for delivery to those who demand bullion by being registered as such with a bullion dealer, in addition to being in a fit condition to satisfy the contract.

Eligible silver can become registered and deliverable if the owner of the silver declares it saleable at some price. And of course if it is there, and otherwise unemcumbered by senior obligations or conspicuous absence."

Registered Ounces Available for Delivery at the Comex
The eligible silver stocks and that of the daily metal warehouse statistics are limited to silver bars that meet the Exchange's criteria for delivery. This criteria specifies that a silver bar must weigh 1,000 troy ounces, plus or minus 10% and be on the Exchange's Official List of Approved Refiners and Brands for silver.

In order for eligible metal to become registered metal, the owner of the metal must have an Exchange Licensed Depository (like Scotia Mocatta) issue a Depository Receipt (Warrant) on those silver bars meeting Exchange standards comprising 5,000 troy ounces (plus or minus 6%) stored at its facility.

It is not a particularly difficult operation to change bars from eligible to registered status, and vice versa. It is a matter of the actual owner's intent. It is a little more difficult to have a new bar introduced to the warehouse and certified as eligible, meeting the criteria of the exchange as stated above.

Some traders use the term dealer to mean deliverable, and customer to signify eligible.

There may be other types of bullion in non-standard forms, such as coins or odd or smaller bars, stored for a fee at Comex, but these are not of interest to us here.

Here is Harvey Organ's take on the silver inventory at the Comex this evening.
"We have just received tonight's inventory changes and it is a dandy. First of all, there were no deposits of silver into the dealer and no deposits into the customer.

There was a rather large withdrawal of silver from one customer of 119,400 oz ( from Scotia). We had another 999 oz from the Delaware vault. Thus total withdrawal: 120,399 oz.

Now the fun begins: We had a massive 5,287,142 oz adjustment whereby the dealer repaid a customer for a prior commitment or a seller had cold feet and decided not to sell his silver and it returned to eligible silver (not for sale) or this is a settlement whereby silver is finally delivered to a patiently waiting long. Ladies and gentlemen..something is up!! The adjustment was in the Scotia vault. Let us see if this silver leaves the Scotia vault."

Turmoil in Silver and Gold at the Comex - Harvey Organ
I suspect the silver has been taken off the market for delivery into some obligation, for example, delivery to an outstanding purchase from a fund like the Central Fund of Canada, Sprott, or some other large customer, perhaps even a sovereign entity (hint here be rumours). But perhaps it is just a customer who has changed their mind about the prospects for silver.

This is what happened. It could be quite bullish depending on what happens to it, as Harvey indicated.

Here is Adrian Douglas' Marketforce Analysis summary of changes to the Comex Inventories.
SILVER

ZERO ozs withdrawn from the dealer’s (registered) inventory
120,399 ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) inventory
Total dealer inventory 35.76 Mozs
Total customer inventory 67.24 Mozs
Combined Total 103.00 Mozs

GOLD

139,996 ozs withdrawn from the dealers (registered) category
70,796 ozs deposited in the customer (eligible) category
Total dealer inventory 2.11 Mozs
Total customer inventory 8.90 Mozs
Combined Total 11.01 Mozs
Adrian's analysis appears each day after the market close in Bill Murphy's metals discussion at LeMetropole Cafe. This is where I first learned about the lesser known aspects of the metals markets in 2001 before gold and silver started to rally, and it remains a must read for me every day.

Remember we are entering a period of May option expiration at Comex, on Tuesday April 26th.

As I mentioned earlier today, something is obviously up. I am trying to get to some level of understanding of it, and am wading through rumours, innuendo, and speculation. But there is something happening behind the scenes, I am now sure of it. And it might be big, because the usual trading desk chatterers don't seem to know what it is. Or aren't talking.

But I am wondering, are the BRICs going to make their move? Or is it something else.



Posted by Jesse at 10:15 PM
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Alt 21.04.2011, 21:51   #8202
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Monex Silver American Eagles Pass $50/Ounce

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2011 15:36 -0400



No commentary necessary.



by nope-1004
on Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:37
#1193636
Goldcore video. Very well done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HaqwFJj4ZY
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Alt 21.04.2011, 22:57   #8203
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Somebody Throw Some Water on Blythe, She's Smokin!


http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_21.html


Wow.

Silver is amazing. Its upward moves are iconic, a short squeeze that doesn't know when to quit. And the equity markets are no slouches either. Is that you blowing a bubble again Benny?

The miners are lagging and at some point soon they should catch up, especially the juniors. I think a lot of people do not believe the metals move is for real and so are playing paired trades and some assets become individually mispriced.

I feel like we are in the Jurassic Park movie, seeing the puddle shaking, with the heavy footfalls of T-Rex and the sounds of its breathing moving around us in the night. We just do not know which direction it is coming from, and where it is going.

I took some paired positions into the weekend, I just could not resist. I have a weak spot for long holiday weekends in which Asia is open and the west is closed. Let's see if any of the China rumours with regard to the reminbi are valid.

Have a happy holiday weekend everyone, and see you at the late show Sunday night.



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Alt 21.04.2011, 23:28   #8204
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von Ed Steer:

Well, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reported their March gold purchases yesterday...and they bought 600,000 ounces...which brings their 'official' holdings up to 26.1 million ounces. Once again Nick Laird provides the graph.



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Alt 22.04.2011, 00:08   #8205
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Debunking Anti-Gold Propaganda

Doug Casey, Chairman

...

A guess? I’ll say the equivalent of about $5,000 an ounce of today’s dollars. And I feel pretty good about that number, considering where we are in the current gold bull market. Classic bull markets have three stages. We’ve long since left the “Stealth” stage – when few people even remembered gold existed, and those who did mocked the idea of owning it. We’re about to leave the “Wall of Worry” stage, when people notice it and the bulls and bears battle back and forth. I’ll conjecture that within the next year we’ll enter the “Mania” stage – when everybody, including governments, is buying gold, out of greed and fear. But also out of prudence.

The policies of Bernanke and Obama – but also of almost every other central bank and government in the world – are not just wrong. These people are, perversely, doing just the opposite of what should be done to cure the problems that have built up over decades. One consequence of their actions will be to ignite numerous other bubbles in various markets and countries. I expect the biggest bubble will be in gold, and the wildest one in mining and exploration stocks.

When will I sell out of gold and gold stocks? Of course, they don’t ring a bell at either the top or the bottom of the market. But I expect to be a seller when there really is a bubble, a mania, in all things gold-related. There’s a good chance that will coincide to some degree with a real bottom in conventional stocks. I don’t know what level that might be on the DJIA, but I’d think its average dividend yield might then be in the 6 to 8% area.

The bottom line is that gold and its friends are no longer cheap, but they have a long way – in both time and price – to run. Until they're done, I suggest you be right and sit tight.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editor...f=FCB228ED0411A
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