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Alt 05.05.2011, 10:46   #8281
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@Hoka - was meinsch wird man wohl nie wissen


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Alt 05.05.2011, 11:59   #8282
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....eine kleine Gegenbewegung wäre schon mal angebracht
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Alt 05.05.2011, 12:31   #8283
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Angst vor US-Schulden

Mexiko misstraut Dollar und kauft 100 Tonnen Gold

Das Land verzwanzigfacht innerhalb weniger Monate seinen Edelmetallbestand. Auch Russland und Thailand setzen auf mehr Gold. Angesichts der US-Schulden sehen Experten einen logischen Trend, der anhalten dürfte.

...

http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/...d/60047839.html
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Only wait Prolongation 2016
Insolvenz US-Reg. -> End of 2016
Finanzkernschmelze (Tsunami) verursacht durch kreative Buchführung/Luftbuchungen(CDS,CDO,CMS,GSE,ABS,LBO,TAF,SIV) Höhepunkt 2016

Nullzinspolitik: FED (0,25% !),BoJ (0,01%!),SNB (-0,50% ),BOE (0,5 %),EZB (0,05 % !!!),Riksbank(1,75%),RBA(4% !) verzögert Gesundungsprozeß!
" Es lauern noch einige böse Überraschungen in den Büchern europ. Banken "
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Alt 05.05.2011, 17:03   #8284
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Folker Hellmeyer, Forex Report:

...
Wenden wir den Blick auf Edelmetalle. Hier kam es am 01. Mai 2011 zu neuen historischen Höchstkursen bei Gold bei 1.578 USD pro Unze in dünnstem Geschäft in Asien, um seitdem deutlich zu korrigieren. Zwischenzeitlich wurden Tiefstkurse bei 1.506 USD markiert. Hinsichtlich der Nachfrage nach Edelmetallen stellt sich die Frage, ob es Spekulanten oder Investoren sind, die die Märkte in der Aufwärtsbewegung befeuern. Die Zentralbanken Mexikos, Russlands und Thailands haben per Februar bis März ihre Goldreserven im Gegenwert von 6 Mrd. USD aufgestockt. Das sind definitiv keine Spekulanten. So viel zu dieser Debatte.

Werfen wir einen Blick auf Silber. Seit August letzten Jahres kam es zu einem Anstieg von 17,70 USD auf 49,51 USD per 28. April 2011. Das ist fulminant. Diese Bewegung war Ausdruck einer Unterbewertung deutlichen Ausmaßes zuvor. Per März 2008 erreichte Silber bereits eine Marke von 21,24 USD. Im Gegensatz zu Gold reagierte Silber bis August 2010 völlig unterproportional. Die letzte Aufwärtsbewegung ist korreliert mit den Einlassungen seitens des Commissioners Bart Chilton von der CFTC, dass der Silbermarkt seitens einiger weniger „Player“ (der Bankenaristokratie) manipuliert war (ist). Eine Korrektur am Silbermarkt war überfällig und ist grundsätzlich gesund. Ein wesentlicher Hintergrund für die aktuelle Amplitude der Korrektur ist aber darin zu sehen, dass die „Margin“-Anforderungen seitens der Comex in den letzten Tagen dreimal deutlich erhöht wurden (historische Anomalie). Für JP-Morgan mag diese massiv erhöhte Unterlegung der Future- Kontrakte mit Liquidität kein Problem sein, für „normale“ Marktteilnehmer sehr wohl. Bei Silber bleibt der fade Beigeschmack, dass diese starke Korrektur in einer Größenordnung von 20% des Silberpreises innerhalb einer Woche politisch erzwungen wurde, um die Marktpsychologie zu erschüttern. Wir nehmen das zur Kenntnis und erlauben uns zu sagen, dass politische Preise kurze Beine haben. Der physische Silbermarkt impliziert ein vollständig anderes Bild als der Silberpapiermarkt! „Food for thought!“
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Alt 05.05.2011, 18:07   #8285
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Zitat:
Zitat von lunar

@Hoka - was meinsch wird man wohl nie wissen




Bin mit der Thematik nicht so vertraut, tönt aber ganz plausibel. Auf humanitäre Motive würde ich jedenfalls höchstens einen Papier-$ oder Papier-€ setzen.
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Alt 05.05.2011, 18:10   #8286
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Expect Vicious Bullion Selloff to Be Short-Lived

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Although some technicians we respect think bullion’s correction will stretch into summer, we think it will be over within a week. In our experience, powerful bull markets recoup violent selloffs with rallies that are just as violent. Silver’s correction has been violent indeed, savaging quotes by 25 percent in just a few days. The catalyst for this brazen shakedown was news Sunday night of Osama bin Laden’s death. Who needs bullion when the world is about to become an oasis of peace, right? Yeah, sure. When the revelers return to their senses the world will still be a dangerous place, the central banks will still be printing money by the trainload, and nothing will have changed to diminish the defensive appeal of precious metals.




...
The Chinese government, for one, has given its blessing to any citizen who wants to buy the stuff. Want to stand in their way?

...

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1304575380.php


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Alt 05.05.2011, 21:13   #8287
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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Collusion by Fed officials and Commodity Exchange heads has its intended effect


I find it amazing how effectively these people can coordinate their policies with the heads of the commodity exchanges and their pals at the big banks who are perennial shorts in the markets and have now managed to pluck the money out of hundreds of thousands of commodity trading accounts enriching the big banks (government sponsored hedge funds) in the process. Nothing like a freely operating financial system where the playing field is completely level and no one has an advantage over the next guy!

By their continued hiking of silver margins, the exchange effectively removed the liquidity in the silver market that the smaller specs have been providing. That left the market vulnerable to severe drops in price as these specs exited due to financial constraints which then removed a source of potential bids under the market as the CFTC commitments report has shown the small specs to be good buyers in the silver market. Even the bigger hedge funds are impacted by such a sharp hike in margins as their losses in silver then precipitate even more losses across other assorted commodity markets due to the cascading effect of mounting paper losses and margin calls and the need to raise cash.

As the silver market tanked the exchange officials could then warn about Clearinghouse integrity and have more reasons to drive margins even higher as they point to the increased volatility, volatility which I might add, they created themselves by hiking margins to such an extreme degree.

I find it hypocritical, if not downright wicked, that this is occuring against a backdrop of a senior executive at the CME Group, one Mr. Bryan Durkin to be exact, warning regulators against reining in High Frequency Traders. He parroted the usual BS about their presence providing much needed liquidity which would result in markets becoming less efficient as a result if they were brought under increased scrutiny or regulation. Does anyone besides me marvel at the temerity of these people who spout such idiocy and then go about deliberately instituting a series of devastating margin hikes which are deliberately designed to KILL LIQUIDITY guaranteeing less efficient markets and roiling the entire commodity complex in the process. Is this what an efficient market is supposed to look like when crude oil prices collapse nearly 9% in a single day because there are no bids or silver which is again down nearly 9% also in a single day?

The truth is that the exchanges are money hungry bastards that want the fees generated by the HFT crowd and do not want anyone to mess with their golden egg laying goose.

Regardless, this collusion on the part of the players involved has accomplished, for the time being only, what the Fed has been trying to do ever since it instituted its second round of QE, which by any standard of objective measurement, has failed. To wit - keep long term interest rates low to generate borrowing.

Unfortunately for the Fed, the bonds were not cooperating and were actually moving lower for a while as commodity prices were responding to the breakdown in the Dollar and holders of long term bonds were balking at hanging on to an "asset" that was priced in a collapsing currency while being threatened with a serious outbreak of inflation as a result of all the reckless money creation.

What could be done especially with the US Dollar within a mere point of crashing through a critical support level which would have seen the onset of a currency collapse and a resultant crisis?

Oh by the way, I might note here that the Japanese Yen has moved to within 58 pips of the level that brought about a massive coordinated intervention back in March that was tied to the tragic earthquake and tsunami. All of those billions spent on knocking the currency down have been wasted as the newest plan to derail the commodity markets brought about another unwinding of the Yen carry trade causing the exact same problem for Japan once again. In other words, less than two months later and after spending billions to derail the Yen and prop up the Dollar against it, we are right back to where we started on Dollar/Yen.

Next move guys???
Posted by Trader Dan at 11:51 AM 1 comments
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Alt 05.05.2011, 21:42   #8288
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Alt 05.05.2011, 23:41   #8289
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_05.html
With five margin increases in ten days, one could suggest that the CME and their do-nothing friends in the CFTC are machine-gunning the lifeboats, and the refugees from the currency wars.

There is no problem with the exchanges and regulators increasing margin requirements per se, and of course restraining leverage is a good thing. I would just like to see it done more transparently and in a 'rule-based' manner, as opposed to the ad hoc, cronyistic way in which it is done today, most often for the benefit of insiders who control the exchanges, and call for help and rule changes when they get in trouble. And they get into trouble through lax regulation and excessive leverage.

There are 'crash' silver calls down to below 30 to 22 abounding. Keep in mind I sold my short term silver trading positions last week, and was short term bearish. I have just started buying back in to gold and silver yesterday and a little before with hedges. Also bear in mind that this decline is accompanied by a sell off in equities as we had suggested it would. Hence our hedging strategy has worked.

People ask, why do not the sovereign silver and gold bulls, the BRICS, fight this? The answer is that they are long term bullion buyers, and this short term paper strategy benefits them greatly.

I think the comparisons to the Hunt Brothers silver bubble might be a bit difficult to sustain, very big picture to the point of meaninglessness. The circumstances between then and now are very different, with the only thing in coincidence being the technical price action. But a concentrated effort by the government and the banks could write history and draw the graphs to suit themselves.

I think there is more to this than meets the eye. It really centers around a major struggle with regard to international currency, and the methods by which countries denominate their trade, and store the liquid reserves portion of their wealth. This is a currency war.

Certainly there are almost no bull calls for the precious metals here, and only a few neutrals. I am changing from short term bearish to neutral, and holding new light positions, most of them revolving around a few 'special situations.' I am neutral, which implies uncertainty. When in doubt, stay out.

I have touched none of my long term positions.

Let's see how the Non-Farm Payrolls number looks, and how it is received. If there is a liquidation panic in the weeks ahead, then all bets are off of course.

This is going to pivot on the stock market and the Fed's short term liquidity actions. The market swings are being triggered by the opaque and irregular management of the markets and the money supply, and the fraud which still taints much of the financial system. Even the staid Economist magazine is questioning US government economic statistics.

The American oligarchs may be having their own Mubarak moment in the not too distant future.

What has been hidden will be revealed, and what has been whispered will be shouted from the rooftops.

But one day at a time, so let's see what happens tomorrow.





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Alt 06.05.2011, 01:31   #8290
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Trader Dan's Market Views

Collusion by Fed officials and Commodity Exchange heads has its intended effect


I find it amazing how effectively these people can coordinate their policies with the heads of the commodity exchanges and their pals at the big banks who are perennial shorts in the markets and have now managed to pluck the money out of hundreds of thousands of commodity trading accounts enriching the big banks (government sponsored hedge funds) in the process. Nothing like a freely operating financial system where the playing field is completely level and no one has an advantage over the next guy!

By their continued hiking of silver margins, the exchange effectively removed the liquidity in the silver market that the smaller specs have been providing. That left the market vulnerable to severe drops in price as these specs exited due to financial constraints which then removed a source of potential bids under the market as the CFTC commitments report has shown the small specs to be good buyers in the silver market. Even the bigger hedge funds are impacted by such a sharp hike in margins as their losses in silver then precipitate even more losses across other assorted commodity markets due to the cascading effect of mounting paper losses and margin calls and the need to raise cash.

As the silver market tanked the exchange officials could then warn about Clearinghouse integrity and have more reasons to drive margins even higher as they point to the increased volatility, volatility which I might add, they created themselves by hiking margins to such an extreme degree.

I find it hypocritical, if not downright wicked, that this is occuring against a backdrop of a senior executive at the CME Group, one Mr. Bryan Durkin to be exact, warning regulators against reining in High Frequency Traders. He parroted the usual BS about their presence providing much needed liquidity warning that any attempts to bring them under more intense scrutiny or curtail their activity would result in markets becoming less efficient. Does anyone besides me marvel at the temerity of these people who spout such idiocy and then go about deliberately instituting a series of devastating margin hikes which are deliberately designed to KILL LIQUIDITY guaranteeing less efficient markets and roiling the entire commodity complex in the process. Is this what an efficient market is supposed to look like when crude oil prices collapse nearly 9% in a single day because there are no bids or silver which is again down nearly 9% also in a single day?

The truth is that the exchanges are money hungry bastards that want the fees generated by the HFT crowd and do not want anyone to mess with their golden egg laying goose.

Regardless, this collusion on the part of the players involved has accomplished, for the time being only, what the Fed has been trying to do ever since it instituted its second round of QE, which by any standard of objective measurement, has failed. To wit - keep long term interest rates low to generate borrowing.

Unfortunately for the Fed, the bonds were not cooperating and were actually moving lower for a while as commodity prices were responding to the breakdown in the Dollar and holders of long term bonds were balking at hanging on to an "asset" that was priced in a collapsing currency while being threatened with a serious outbreak of inflation as a result of all the reckless money creation.

What could be done especially with the US Dollar within a mere point of crashing through a critical support level which would have seen the onset of a currency collapse and a resultant crisis?

Oh by the way, I might note here that the Japanese Yen has moved to within 58 pips of the level that brought about a massive coordinated intervention back in March that was tied to the tragic earthquake and tsunami. All of those billions spent on knocking the currency down have been wasted as the newest plan to derail the commodity markets brought about another unwinding of the Yen carry trade causing the exact same problem for Japan once again. In other words, less than two months later and after spending billions to derail the Yen and prop up the Dollar against it, we are right back to where we started on Dollar/Yen.

Next move guys???


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Alt 06.05.2011, 01:36   #8291
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Trader Dan's Market Views



HUI sinks further under the weight of collapsing silver prices


So much for a potential bottom having been formed in the mining shares based on the performance yesterday where the sharp spike lower was followed by a strong rebound and high range close. That low near 542 gave way early in the session and the index never managed to seriously threaten it since.

We are back to watching for a sign of a bottom. A substantial amount of buying came in near the session low at 526 but as to whether or not we get a pop higher tomorrow across the shares is unclear.

I find it difficult to believe that even with the margin hikes silver has that much more to fall but a lot depends on the willingness and financial means of the large specs left in the market to maintain their existing long positions. A drop of this magnitude cannot last much longer and I would be surprised to see silver fall below $32. If it did, it would meet with enormous demand on the physical side of things.

Even at that I will want to see the HUI stop going down and find a stable bottom before I am confident that the rout in silver is over. Reports indicate that demand for the physical product is very robust on this huge price drop. if that is the case, then it will not be long before the Asians swoop in and clean up the remains of the exchange-killed silver longs.



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Alt 06.05.2011, 01:37   #8292
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And So It Continues: Another 92 Thousand Ounces In Physical Silver Withdrawn From Comex Despite Historic Paper Collapse

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2011 19:00 -0400





At this rate, tomorrow, for the first time, we will see a 32 handle in Comex registered silver ounces, where apparently despite the massive drubbing in paper silver, demand for physical inexplicably persists.Speculators to be blamed for this in 5...4...3...

»



Guest Post: Today's Silver Scandal

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2011 18:40 -0400


Some believe the recent general commodities pullback was triggered by the series of CME margin hikes on silver within the past week, after the recent exponential run-up in silver prices. Whether or not that is true, holders of leveraged long commodities positions should have warily watched the action in the silver market. Some silver speculators may not have seen the margin hike as a constraint on lending, but it should have been a red flag for any speculator with a leveraged long position. Moreover, after silver markets closed, silver prices were getting “banged” lower in what looked like suspicious market manipulation.

»
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Alt 06.05.2011, 01:49   #8293
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Ben Davies - We Are Now Buyers of Physical Silver







Ben Davies called for a 3 to 5 day $15 decline in silver and that is exactly what happened. I wanted to catch up with the CEO of Hinde Capital to get his thoughts on where we are now in the silver market. When asked if silver is bottoming Davies replied, “As a firm we have covered all of our...
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Alt 06.05.2011, 14:48   #8294
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Bloss weg vom Silber

An den Rohstoffbörsen kam es zum grössten Einbruch seit zwei Jahren: Investoren flüchten aus Kakao, Gold, Kupfer und vor allem aus Silber – warum? Mehr...

Von Philipp Löpfe. Aktualisiert um 12:13 Uhr 36 Kommentare

.....Herr Löpfe muss mal wieder einiges über sich ergehen lassen
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Alt 06.05.2011, 15:17   #8295
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China Buying Silver Overnight

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2011 07:48 -0400

GoldCorp submits: "Gold and silver are tentatively higher after their 2% and 8% falls yesterday. In silver, speculators on the COMEX continue to liquidate en masse after margin was increased a massive 84% and various stop loss levels are hit, leading to further falls in the futures market. Absolutely nothing has changed regarding the fundamentals driving the gold and silver markets and this will likely be another correction in gold and another sharp correction in silver. Silver’s sell off has been vicious but value buyers continue to accumulate silver bullion. Jim Rogers, who arguably has a better track record than Soros in recent years, remains bullish on gold and silver and told CNBC, “if it goes down I hope I’m smart enough to buy more silver." Also, there are reports this morning from the Wall Street Journal and Mitsui that there was decent buying of silver from China at these price levels overnight."


by mark mchugh
on Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:54
#1246740
This is what's going to happen - The rest of the world will snap up the remaining silver supply while our banksters play head games with the sheeple.
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