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Alt 04.08.2008, 10:54   #496
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The Story of Stuff - Ch.5: Consumption

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUeMVt3stAo

6:36 Minuten sollte man sich ansehen
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Alt 04.08.2008, 11:29   #497
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..hört wohl nimmer auf

03 August 2008

Incoming: Another Significant Wave of Mortgage Defaults


The Fed and Treasury face wave after wave of defaults from the unwinding of the credit bubble. They have lowered interest rates to try and stem the incoming tide of collapse, and in doing so they will trigger inflation and perhaps yet another bubble elsewhere if they can. What will it be? It may be a bubble in certain commodities, and indeed even be an anti-bubble in the dollar and the imposition of draconian domestic measures.


August 4, 2008
Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

By VIKAS BAJAJ

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.


The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

While it is difficult to draw precise parallels among various segments of the mortgage market, the arc of the crisis in subprime loans suggests that the problems in the broader market may not peak for another year or two, analysts said.

Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards, making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans, many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets.

“Subprime was the tip of the iceberg,” said Thomas H. Atteberry, president of First Pacific Advisors, a investment firm in Los Angeles that trades mortgage securities. “Prime will be far bigger in its impact.”

In a conference call with analysts last month, James Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said he expected losses on prime loans at his bank to triple in the coming months and described the outlook for them as “terrible.”

Delinquencies on mortgages tend to peak three to five years after loans are made, said Mark Fleming, the chief economist at First American CoreLogic, a research firm. Not surprisingly, subprime loans from 2005 appear closer to the end of defaults than those made in 2007, for which default rates continue to rise steeply........

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Alt 04.08.2008, 11:34   #498
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Paulson is trying to sell trust in the banks with his new covered bonds. It's tough to sell trust in a Wall Street bank these days because there is not much to trust.

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the US International Trade Commission.
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Alt 04.08.2008, 15:24   #499
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Standard bei DU gesehen - merci

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Alt 04.08.2008, 15:31   #500
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UpInArms (1000+ posts) Mon Aug-04-08 08:50 AM
Response to Original message 33. Companies Tap Pension Plans To Fund Executive Benefits http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121761989739205497.html...

At a time when scores of companies are freezing pensions for their workers, some are quietly converting their pension plans into resources to finance their executives' retirement benefits and pay.

In recent years, companies from Intel Corp. to CenturyTel Inc. collectively have moved hundreds of millions of dollars of obligations for executive benefits into rank-and-file pension plans. This lets companies capture tax breaks intended for pensions of regular workers and use them to pay for executives' supplemental benefits and compensation.

The practice has drawn scant notice. A close examination by The Wall Street Journal shows how it works and reveals that the maneuver, besides being a dubious use of tax law, risks harming regular workers. It can drain assets from pension plans and make them more likely to fail. Now, with the current bear market in stocks weakening many pension plans, this practice could put more in jeopardy.

How many is impossible to tell. Neither the Internal Revenue Service nor other agencies track this maneuver. Employers generally reveal little about it. Some benefits consultants have warned them not to, in order to forestall a backlash by regulators and lower-level workers.

The background: Federal law encourages employers to offer pensions by giving companies a tax deduction when they contribute cash to a pension plan, and by letting the money in the plan grow tax free. Executives, like anyone else, can participate in these plans.



...more...

This makes me sick. ozymandius Aug-04-08 09:10 AM #40
This should be illegal DemReadingDU Aug-04-08 09:12 AM #41
This is absolutely criminal. Dr.Phool Aug-04-08 09:21 AM #44
Greedy ass bastards. We need hearings on this! Joanne98 Aug-04-08 09:26 AM #47


....und wie ist es hier in Europa hoffentlich macht das nicht Schule
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Alt 04.08.2008, 16:58   #501
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Standard Kauf Haus ...




der ist gut !


... was zum lesen, auch für Analphabeten ( dies ist keine
Ironie hinsichtlich der verbalen Sprachproblematik eines
führenden Finanzexperten im Dienste der demokratischen
Führung eines 3. Weltlandes )

Amazon book store (Hardcover) :

Origami with Dollar Bills,
Another Way to Impress People with Your Money !
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Alt 04.08.2008, 17:26   #502
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...zum Glück gibt's Google



...und hast Du schon was drin "gelesen"
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Alt 04.08.2008, 18:06   #503
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DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) Mon Aug-04-08 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #59 62. More about Meredith Whitney Edited on Mon Aug-04-08 10:08 AM by DemReadingDU
from another of my favorite blogs...

Edit to add the portion about Meredith Whitney from a couple days ago

8/1/08
Ilargi: In a CBNC interview, analyst Meredith Whitney gives her view of the credit and housing crisis, touching on a wide range of aspects. I think this is an important interview, because she makes a number of statements that contradict many claims and predictions published by the "respected" media on a daily basis. Even so, she very clearly looks to be holding back in what she says.

Still, while blogs may not always be taken seriously, an attitude that increasingly proves to be just plain wrong, Meredith Whitney cannot just as easily be shoved aside. It’s hard to name a high-level analyst on Wall Street with more credibilty than she has.

Here are some of the things she says:

* Merrill Lynch’s sale of $30.6 billion of its CDO’s will be a blueprint for all other financial institutions that own such instruments.
* 25 financial institutions will need to raise additional capital at some point this year.
* All the equity raised presently just serves to plug holes; it doesn’t improve banks’ financial positions.
* Stocks in financials will not rebound for at least 3 years.
* Fannie and Freddie are in the same quagmire as all the rest, they're just bigger.

While, as Whitney says, the Case/Shiller index predicts a 33% drop in residential real estate prices, and most other predictions claim an even - often much- smaller decline, she is sure it will be worse than 33%. She doesn’t say how much worse, but calls lesser claims "bad math".

Her reasoning is as follows:

* Since 2000, 85% of the liquidity in the US housing market has come from securitization. From 2005-2007, $2.5 trilllion worth of mortgages was securitized.
* Today, obviously, mortgage backed securities hardly find buyers. That is, except for Fannie and Freddie.
* A 33% drop in home prices would lead us back to the price level of 2002-2003. However, homeownership was higher then, and the securities trade was blooming.
* Today, banks have less capital, since their shares have lost 50% or more of their value. This will inevitable lead to less lending, which leads to less buyers, which results in lower housing prices.

Whitney therefore states that a drop in prices of 33% or less is not just unlikely, it is mathematically impossible.

Keep that in mind the next time you hear or read claims to the contrary: home prices will fall by more than 33%, and shares in financials won’t bounce back until 2012 at the earliest.

If you must, feel free to ignore my prediction for a drop in real estate prices by 80% or more; until it happens, that is. You will see.

Ignore Whitney at your own peril.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/08/debt-ratt...

video
Maria Bartiromo with Meredith Whitney, executive director of equity research at Oppenheimer, discussing what's in store for the financial sector.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964&play=1
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Alt 04.08.2008, 18:07   #504
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Text Origami

...

oh, die Dollar-airplanes kannte ich nicht,
ist was für Ben, oder ?

Pinguine sind auch super, merci für Deinen
research !
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Alt 04.08.2008, 18:22   #505
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Whitney's Wisdom

How her influence has landed her on the latest cover of Fortune Magazine, with Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer & Co. director, equity research

Last Update: Mon. Aug. 4 2008

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=812131553&play=1

....homeprices are going much more to fall than people expect
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Alt 04.08.2008, 19:11   #506
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Subject: File No. S7-19-07
From: Gary D Markoff
Affiliation: Senior Vice President Citi/Smith Barney


July 29, 2008

Dear Sirs,
I've been participating in the financial markets for nearly 30 years advising clients on both the long and short sides of the market. I'm deeply concerned over the imbalances created since the 'uptick rule' was removed 12 months ago,the subsequent explosion of short interest and the Bear Market that has followed.
It's either unusually coincidental or more probably causal with the broader market meltdown we've been experiencing since the rule change. I have no objection with shorting, but I do have an objection to hedge funds (or anyone else) manipulating the process and the price of securities by selling shares that haven't at least been borrowed first and then slamming the bid with short sales on rapid downticks. I am not allowed to do that for clients at my firm, and can't understand why anyone else should be allowed. Returning to the Uptick rule and requiring prior authorization on a Borrow need to appply and be enforced for ALL publicly traded companies and not just FRE, FNM and the primary dealers.
The ability to sell 'market on close' for a short seller is major unintended consequence of the 'uptick' removal, especially in smaller cap (say under $5 bill but more significantly on market caps below $1 billion). This has enabled shorts to dominate the end of day trading and 'mark' the closing price (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly) which is illegal for both shorts and long side players. The difference is that longs must identify themselves in filings to the SEC at least once per quarter and anytime positions go up or down thru 5, 10 or 15% thresholds. Short sellers DO NOT have this requirement and because of this ability to be anonymous, the SEC does not have effective control of surveillance nor do the shareholders and the company itself know who is short.
My request and recommendation is that for transparency purposes, ALL positions both long and short be filed equally and size restrictions be implemented on shorts the way they are on longs. As a shareholder, I should be able to know in the proxy statements who the short sellers are that are short more than 5% of a company just the same way I can see who is long greater than 5%.
I also can't understand why stocks that are showing up on the Reg SHO lists aren't subject to immediate buy-ins after a minimum grace period. It's the SEC's job to enforce this and hasn't. Why have a rule if it is not going to be enforced?
I also take issue with short interest getting up to over 50% in some companies. Again, without transparency as to WHO is short, it's possible that one player can corner the market (short) in a declining environment. Position limits apply in commodities for a reason, they should apply in equities,too.
All of these factors have gone on to raise the cost of capital for companies unnecessarily, and to bring about a broad disengagement from public participation. It's time to turn those factors around before we create another Depression.
Thank you for your consideration, Gary Markoff
Senior Vice President, Smith Barney- Boston

http://sec.gov/comments/s7-19-07/s71907-1248.htm

ob das von den Herren Paulson-Bernanke & Co. beabsichtigt war

....und es wird wieder wohl gelesen (hoffentlich wenigstens das ) und es wird wiederum nichts passieren - das ist doch wirklich

***********************

....ich bin sonst kein Cramer-Fan, da lag er aber richtig

von einem Yahoo-Board:
1-Aug-08 09:07 pm jcrxp5
I shall post this yet again.

Reaction to SEC's Elimination of Rule 10a-1

On the March 20, 2008 episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer launched his campaign to reinstate the Uptick Rule. Citing the wild swings of the market since its elimination, Cramer pointed out that the SEC eliminated the rule during a bull market, when liquidity was not a problem. Cramer believes that, without the Uptick Rule in place, short sellers are devaluing perfectly solid stocks. As a former hedge fund manager, Cramer admitted to making millions short selling with the Uptick Rule in place. Without an impediment such as the Uptick Rule to slow down the pace of short sellers, Cramer believes it puts the market at risk for the very problems that lead to the Great Depression.
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Alt 04.08.2008, 22:23   #507
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Jesse's Café Américain


04 August 2008

LEH in Talks to Sell Asssets and Sell New Equity to Raise Capital


Lehman may have to raise capital if sells assets
Mon Aug 4, 2008 12:48pm EDT
By Dan Wilchins

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc is expected to follow in Merrill Lynch & Co Inc's footsteps and sell a lot of risky assets at a loss. But shedding the assets may create another headache for Lehman -- the need to raise large amounts of new capital, including common equity.

Any capital raise would be painful for Lehman and its shareholders, given that the company just raised $6 billion in June and trades at a significant discount to its book value, or the net accounting value of its assets.


But Lehman, the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, may have little choice as it wrestles with roughly $65 billion in mortgage-related assets, particularly after Merrill Lynch agreed to shed $30.6 billion in toxic assets at a fire-sale price of 22 cents in the dollar, analysts said......


***************************



Posted by Jesse at 3:09 PM

Citi Takes a Serious Hit on Credit Card Losses - Sees Defaults Rising


Citigroup Posts Loss on Credit-Card Securitizations
By Bradley Keoun

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. reported its first loss since at least 2005 on credit-card securitizations, signaling that risks may be growing in a business that generated $3.5 billion of revenue in the past three years.

The biggest U.S. credit-card lender lost $176 million in the second quarter packaging card loans into securities, the company said in an Aug. 1 regulatory filing. The New York-based bank completed fewer deals and was forced to mark down its own $9 billion stockpile of the debt instruments and other stakes the company amassed while selling them to investors......


...man kommt aus dem gar nicht mehr raus
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Alt 05.08.2008, 12:02   #508
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...es geht hier zwar um GM - aber hat wohl allgemeine Gültigkeit


General Motors and the Intellectual and Moral Bankruptcy of Wall Street



.....Let’s step backwards a bit. On June 25, 2007, Wall Street powerhouse Morgan Stanley put out a “buy” recommendation with respect to General Motors’ common stock. Robert Barry, Morgan Stanley’s star analyst, proclaimed a 52-week target price of $42 per share. Less than five months later, on November 7, 2007, Wall Street analysts were stunned by General Motors’ staggering third-quarter (9/30/07) loss of $39 billion – one of the largest bookkeeping losses in history, which was mostly related to the writedown of deferred tax assets. Fifty-three weeks after Morgan Stanley’s buy recommendation, GM’s stock hit a 54-year low of $9.98 per share – on July 2, 2008, after Merrill Lynch’s recommendation had gone from a “buy” to “underperform” (i.e., sell) on that day. In one sweeping move overnight, Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy cut his target price on GM by a whopping 75%, reducing the target price from $28 to $7. So how is it that GM suddenly went from respectability to mediocrity – in one analyst’s mind – overnight? In fact, why did it take until July 2008 to concede that GM was on life support? Wall Street, belatedly, is willing to acknowledge the fact that General Motors is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy.

Accordingly, key questions come to the forefront. How did any stock analyst, worth his salt, get blindsided by the aforementioned $38.3 billion writedown of deferred tax assets? Are Wall Street’s Ivy League-educated MBAs able to comprehend advanced accounting and finance? Has rigorous security analysis, on Wall Street, been supplanted by self-serving cheerleading and inane platitudes with the objective of transferring wealth from the masses to the Wall Street elites?

As Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd so eloquently stated in their classic 1934 book Security Analysis, “The correct calculation of the asset values and their relationship to securities or creditors claims depends on the purposes of the analyst.” Therefore, to answer the above-posed questions is simple. Wall Street has little to do with disseminating competent securities analysis and advice to average “investors,” and has much to do with transferring wealth from Main Street to Wall Street – and, for the most powerful Wall Street brokerage houses, doing the bidding of the government’s Plunge Protection Team.......

......So, just how savvy are some of Wall Street’s best and brightest analysts ? Nine days before GM’s deferred tax asset writedown bombshell, UBS upgraded its rating of GM to a “buy.” On September 13, 2007, Citigroup initiated coverage and issued a buy recommendation. Other Wall Street heavyweights, in 2007, that had weighed in with “upgraded” opinions of GM included Banc of America Securities, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Lehman Brothers, and Deutsche Securities. One must heed Graham and Dodd’s words as to what purpose is behind a securities analyst’s recommendation. But then again, Wall Street analysts long ago abandoned their roles of providing independent expertise, and instead turned to selling their firm’s investment banking services. Mark Reutter writes:
Stock analysts have long been fixtures at investment banks that both broker (that is, sell) stocks and bonds to the public and underwrite new security issues for companies. With deregulation of brokerage commissions in 1975, which ended the practice of fixed-rate minimum commissions, investment banks found their brokerage business drying up, undercut by Charles Schwab & Co. and other discount brokerages.

Trading fees plummeted and analyst reports no longer paid for themselves. As a result, the role of the analyst shifted from providing relatively impartial information for brokers and their clients to boosterish tie-ins with corporate clients, such as using the research reports to hype a company’s prospects and promoting initial public offerings (IPOs) on investor "road shows."

So now, with the two services – investment banking and stock analysis – conveniently commingled, and thus creating a huge conflict of interest, a dealmaker’s sales literature is passed off as serious and useful analysis of the financial markets, leading Main Street investors – who tend to follow these recommendations – seriously astray.....

full story: http://www.lewrockwell.com/decoster/decoster133.html
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Alt 06.08.2008, 06:50   #509
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Today's market action looked like a major Wall Street insiders push to break the traders/funds who were playing the long oil-long metals - short dollar-short financials cross trades. They were leaning awfully hard on them.
Just as an update we took down our short oil - long gold cross trade the past couple days. We wanted to be in a stronger cash position to be a able to move quickly in case some things unfold as we expect they might.

The volumes are just not there so far to justify this run up in the stock indices. The Fed did not do anything today to justify a 300+ point rally. The spin on financial television is running hard from the 'chief strategists.' Wall Street wants to get the market up and offload more shares to mom and pop to further damage the economy for their own benefit. That's what they do. This is why our economy is sick. It is being run by shills and gamblers for the benefit of 'the house.'

We will be very surprised if the market does not sell off tomorrow, but we have an open mind and will start considering the notion of government intervention which could sustain a prolonged 'reflation rally.' If the Fed and Treasury can get behind this in a meaningful way then all bets are off.

But for now this just looks like the Wall Street wiseguys peeking at the other players cards from their seating vantage points as insiders and limit raising the bets against the prevailing trades on the trend fundamentals. If this is the case, the prior trends should reassert themselves within the week. If not, then we might be in a new ballgame.

We will WAIT for a sign that this is the case, although we did put on a few Sept. Index shorts into the close. There is no point jumping in front of this in case it is something more profound than just the usual Wall Street shenanigans.


Posted by Jesse at 3:58 PM
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Alt 06.08.2008, 07:01   #510
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05 August 2008

When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro

We just don't have the words.

Morgan Stanley to Advise U.S. Department of the Treasury Regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

NEW YORK -- (Business Wire) --

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) confirmed today that it has been

retained by the United States Department of the Treasury to provide

capital markets advice to support the Treasury's responsibilities

associated with its new authorities regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie

Mac. As part of that assignment, Morgan Stanley will support the

Treasury's work to promote market stability and the availability of

mortgage credit.





Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John J. Mack

said, "Morgan Stanley is honored to have been asked to serve as

financial advisor to the U.S. Treasury as it evaluates various

alternatives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We are pleased to be able

to offer our services to the government and look forward to working

with Secretary Paulson and his team as they work to restore stability

to the global capital markets and confidence in the U.S. housing

market." Morgan Stanley will accept no fees for this assignment and will

receive only $95,000 from the Government toward its expenses.

($95,000 for expenses? That's a lot of Taittinger at The Palm and VIP lapdances at Camelot. Or are we talking something a little more Spitzeresque? We'll take that job in a Manhattan minute for free. It would put a certain 'edge' to our blog. Think about it Hank. - Jesse)



Posted by Jesse at 6:56 PM - http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

.....es stinkt zum Himmel - who cares
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