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Themen-Optionen
Alt 02.05.2011, 22:44   #8251
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Fool Me Once Shame On You...

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-that-bear.html


One cannot help but notice that the bear raids in the precious metals sector are coming in thin trading and are notable for their lighter volumes as compared to buying. They are also coordinated across a variety of related products including mining stocks etc. which are likely used to hedge losses on the futures contracts.

One possible explanation for this unusual volatility is here: Portrait of Desperation, and I suggest that you take a minute to look at it.

I think the Comex dealer inventory chart is telling, and while it might be resolved through procurement of a large, unallocated inflow of silver, I am at a loss to find out where that might originate, unless it is from the market itself, which would seem to demand higher, not lower prices, despite all the jawboning and spin from the Wall Street demimonde. The western governments, central banks, and IMF have long ago exhausted their strategic supplies of silver, so the bullion banks cannot effectively turn to them for direct relief as they have done over the past ten years in the case of gold.

Obviously there are other explanations. But a short squeeze being conducted not by one or two big players who can be dealt with by the exchange, but by a global market acting independently but almost en masse seems satisfy Occam's Razor at least in my mind.

In this case the market corner by a few traders has been on the short side, which is what went parabolic first, in both the futures and the derivatives markets. And it appears to be largely held by two big banks.

The big players are eating that short position in stages while they scramble to hold the markets under some measure of control. I agree with those who say that this will end badly.

As someone who watches the markets daily, and for many years, I cannot help but feel that after all this, after the financial collapse and all the related frauds and deceptions in mortgages and CDS, that we have ulimately learned nothing.

Could the precious metals market and the Comex be placed at risk by a few large financial institutions that in their hubris engaged in over-leveraged but highly profitable trades that placed them in excessive risk, and by extention the risked the financial system?

How many times can one be surprised by the disclosure of an outrageous and pervasive fraud before they might wish to start questioning their basic assumptions about how things really work?

But at the end of the day in the short term silver had gotten ahead of itself, and it is now correcting and consolidating its gains as I had mentioned it would. And the new holders of futures contracts from the option expiration will be tried, and after this silver will be held in strong hands.

And in the background, gold grinds steadily higher to our objective of 1590.





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Alt 02.05.2011, 23:23   #8252
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Ben Davies - Silver Criticality, Why Silver Might Crash?







With downside action in the gold and silver markets today, Ben Davies weighs in with his latest commentary. In this piece exclusively for the King World News blog, Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital gives KWN readers globally his thoughts on where we are right now in the silver market, as well as...



Today, 12:14 PM
James Turk - Silver Forming Another Bullish Flag Formation







With silver down just over 4%, the dollar continuing to grind lower and gold consolidating, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. When asked about gold and silver Turk responded, “Nearly all of Europe is closed today to celebrate May Day, and Asian markets are notoriously thin...
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Alt 02.05.2011, 23:28   #8253
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And Scene: CME Hikes Silver Margin For Third Time In 7 Days, Raises Initial, Maintenance Margins By 12%

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2011 16:27 -0400



Last week two hikes of 9% and 10% did nothing, which is why this week's first hike (of many more) by 12% to the maintenance and initial margins was to be completely expected. We believe that nothing short of 100% margin (coupled with not one single ES margin hike by the Globex) will eventually placate the ardent Comex risk managers who are terrified their models may end up being wrong about "stuff." One thing is certain: the panic is palpable and the administration will stop at nothing to prevent the $50 limit order from triggering silver's surge to triple digits. We wish them all the best in this endeavor and are grateful for all BTFD opportunity.

»
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Alt 03.05.2011, 00:28   #8254
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Gold Flash Crash


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2011 18:06 -0400


Gold just plunged by $20 for no reason whatsoever. So let's take a guess at what happened here: some ETF caused the NYSE to hit LRP thresholds, causing numerous stocks to "break", and the result is an immediate algorithmic margin call satisfied by gold selling? Or not, at his point does anyone really care. Point is obvious: scare all holders into submission. Can the royal "they" just confiscate everything not in paper form (and thus out of Fed control) already and end this charade?






http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-flash-crash
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Alt 03.05.2011, 08:22   #8255
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02 May 2011

CME Announces Third Margin Increase For Silver in a Week - Karma? Ain't It a Bitch.


Some instant pundits were citing 'exhaustion' which they had seen in the silver market as a cause for the recent declines.

Only someone talking their book, or in complete ignorance of market dynamics, would cite 'buyer exhaustion' for such a precipitous decline when the exchange continues to raise margins, and the bears hit the price repeatedly in the off hours trade.

As Dave from Golden Truth observed:
"Needless to say, last night's ambush was comically initiated right at the open of electronic trading, which commences in the early evening on Sunday, when the futures markets tend to be at their least liquid. There was an absolute flood of sell orders at the open but the cliff-dive chart was accompanied by a relatively small amount of total volume. This suggests that there were some motivated "sellers" trying to push the market lower and force selling by the MF Global or Ameritrade customers who would be unable to meet the new margin requirements. To be sure, there was also plenty of unloading by longs who were frightened by the volatility and wanted to protect any profits they might have."
This does not look like a market showing anything like classic buyer exhaustion. This is more like a speeding train, running higher in response to a short squeeze on a massive overhang of paper silver obligations that cannot be delivered at current prices. The exchange authorities are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at it to try and slow it down, to break its momentum. I obviously do not have a problem with that per se. But it would be nice to see the regulators and exchanges occasionally intervening on behalf of the broader class of investors, and not so exclusively for the benefit of their insiders.

The reason is fairly obvious. The Comex inventory is down to a new low of 33 million ounces of deliverable silver, at least according to their published records. It is tough to talk your way out of that one, without showing the metal to the market. Stand and deliver.

And there are no Hunt brothers for the exchange officials to lean on to break the bulls. The buying is dispersed and world wide. They can raise the Comex margins to 100% and it will not affect the buying of bullion. But it may open up a yawning chasm between the paper markets and the physical markets that will be harder and harder to ignore. And that is unfortunate for those who seek to be the masters of the world, at least on paper.

As Harvey Organ notes in his commentary tonight:
"...another startling announcement from the CME, tonight, a third straight raise in the silver margin requirements. This shows how severe the bankers are into the silver glue..they are massively short of ounces and there is no available resources on the planet."
The silver market will keep going until the market clears, wherever that price may be. This may have to involve a few Banks, or their rumoured 'secret customers,' taking a substantial loss on their massive short positions, something that they are loathe to do. It's not so much the money, as the public will almost certainly absorb their losses through the Fed. It will be the admissions of failure, and potential exposure, and the need to construct yet another cover and diversion for a fraud based failure in the Anglo-American banking system.

What does not kill this rally makes it stronger.

Fighting the paper price is becoming counter-productive, because it opens the door to additional buying of physical bullion from Asia. It is starting to look like a feedback loop, in which the struggle of the shorts to extricate themselves merely tightens their bonds.

Tens of thousands of buyers, both big and small, taking on the banking giants, draining them of silver, bouncing back again and again, and finally leaving them exposed, high and dry, and nakedly short, for all to see. The many, seeking to string the bankers on a rope of silver, and bring them down.
"Can you catch Leviathan on a fishhook, or tie it down with a rope?"
Those dreamers. Those crazy dharma bums.

And the shorts are trapped in their pride, and their tangled web of lies. Karma? Ain't it a bitch.
"Our battered suitcases were piled on the sidewalk again; we had longer ways to go. But no matter, the road is life...Whither goest thou America, in your shiny car in the night." Jack Kerouac
CME Margin Increase for Silver


These are wild, triple black diamond markets. These are big changes occurring, understood by very few, and emotions will be running high.

If you are not a very experienced trader, better to stay off the slopes and as far away from leverage as you can get.


Posted by Jesse at 8:04 PM
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Alt 03.05.2011, 08:38   #8256
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So Much For The Sprott Silver Scare: "Every Dollar From PSLV Sales Was Reinvested In Silver Equities"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2011 19:09 -0400



Earlier we reported that Sprott had sold $35 million worth of PSLV, which caused many to panic that the precious metals guru had indicated the market top in the market. Well, as it turns out and as he just told the Globe and Mail “We haven’t lost our enthusiasm for silver.” Quite the opposite...


by Ahmeexnal
on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 20:59
#1232427
Word on the street is that the Rothschilds have lost patience with Dimon&Blythe.
Those two idiots were entrusted with a clear, simple mandate: to keep silver price supressed and to do it discreetly.
Due to their sheer stupidity and incompetence, they have managed to lower silver price from 10 to nearly 50 USD over the last few months, and in the process have blown wide open the possibility of a COMEX default and criminal charges against several banking outlets....and the jewel on the crown will be silver ripping away completely taking down the Roths with it.
It's not price discovery, it is VALUE discovery coming in a few days.
Dimon and Blythe? They won't face jail.
No....they will have a funeral at sea courtesy of the Roths.
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Alt 03.05.2011, 14:16   #8257
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Midas guy on Backwardation…velly Intellesting

-> Posted by Fullgoldcrown @ 22:17 pm on May 2, 2011
Bill,
The western mainstream silver bashing continues with incomplete and inaccurate reporting. Here is the latest from Barron’s, “Silver Speculators, Look Out!”

online.barrons.com/article/SB5000142405297

0203579804576285053281955620.html

Later in the article, it was pointed out that spreading risk through a more diversified mix of commodities might be a good idea. Some of these commodities were selected based on attractive signs of BACKWARDATION. The article doesn’t even mention that silver is in backwardation and that the backwardation is intensifying. The Barron’s article then defines backwardation as “meaning contracts expiring soonest are selling more cheaply than those expiring at a later date.” As we know, this is the definition of contango.

I find it hard to believe that silver is near a very meaningful top when everyone and their brother and their brother’s dog is calling a top in silver.

The backwardation in silver started on Feb. 3, 2011 when the price of silver was just under $29/oz. On Feb. 11, Reuters called the backwardation “unprecedented”. The gap between the front month futures contract and the Dec. 15 contract widened to 73 cents on Feb. 18, 2011. On March 7, the gap widened to 109 cents. The gap then started to narrow as the price increased as you would expect. The gap then bottomed at 40 cents on April 13, 2011.

The unexpected then occurred when the gap started widening even as the silver price rose. On April 28, the gap had widened to 76 cents. On April 29, 2011, the gap has now widened to 89 cents. As far as I am concerned, we have a whole new ballgame in the silver market.

Below are the final settlement silver futures as of Friday 4/29/11.

May 11 ……………………… 48.584

June 11 …………………….. 48.591

Sept 11 …………………….. 48.609

Dec 11 ……………………… 48.612

July 12 …………………….. 48.486

Dec 12 ……………………… 48.386

July 13 …………………….. 48.238

Dec 14 ……………………… 47.931

July 15 …………………….. 47.811

Dec 15 ……………………… 47.696

As you can see from the futures pricing above, the gap between the front month futures contract and the Dec 15 contract has widened to 89 cents. The gap has significantly widened from 40 cents on April 13, 2011.

The western mainstream media does not seem to want to touch the silver backwardation with a stick. Reuters had a Feb. 11, 2011 article describing the backwardation as unprecedented. To Barron’s credit, Randall Forsyth did mention the silver backwardation in the 5/2/11 Up And Down Wall Street Column. Other than these two articles, there has been radio silence concerning the unprecedented backwardation in silver.

In this latest Barron’s article, Silver Speculators Look Out! by Murray Coleman, they talk about selecting other commodities based on attractive signs of backwardation and based on momentum. That is exactly what we have for silver. Some how, silver is suppose to be a sell and these other commodities are a buy. Ridiculous.

The silver bears can hit the mining shares, put out a barrage of negative headlines, put out a barrage of false information; but the backwardation in silver has intensified – big time. Even at these prices, the market is saying that silver demand exceeds supply and that the path of least resistance is up over the next few weeks.
Paul Yusem
The Gold And Silver Analyst
www.thegoldandsilveranalyst.com

Backwardation has widened again after today’s smack-down to 97 cents. JPM is in deep trouble.
Paul

backwardation
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Alt 03.05.2011, 21:39   #8258
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The Silver Bears Are Back

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2011 13:42 -0400



...And that would be bears as in cartoon bears, who are now back for the 6th installment of their periodic, and very much unique and extemely politically incorrect and PG-18 recap of key developments in the silver market. Love them or hate them, they do provide an interesting thought experiment on what happens if silver does finally experience the long-expected technical drop.

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Alt 03.05.2011, 21:49   #8259
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Presenting SLV's Largest Holders

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2011 15:41 -0400



It is not a good day for MS, BofA and Aletheia Research, the top 3 holders of SLV respectively. While the next 13F update of SLV holdings will hit in two weeks, below we present the funds with the largest SLV holdings as of December 31. Granted, considering that silver has had been at a nearly 100% YTD gain since then we will probably not shed too many tears. Curiously, Texas Teachers, not to be confused with University of Texas established its entire 2.8 million share stake in Q4 of last year. We wonder if Kyle Bass is to be thanked for that as well. And more curiously: JPMorgan, with 3.6 million shares is the 5th largest SLV holders.
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Alt 03.05.2011, 22:23   #8260
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Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Silver fails at $42.50



Posted by Trader Dan at 11:16 AM 9 comments
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Alt 03.05.2011, 23:58   #8261
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold Silver Ratio Back to 37 - NAV of PM Funds

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...kly-charts.html


I told a small group of traders around 3 PM that I was pulling my big Russell 2000 short position hedges off, and was buying into some deeper long positions. And so I did.

Unless this is going to turn into a liquidation event, I believe the consolidation/correction, whatever you wish to call it, is about done, save perhaps for another gut check or two in case the dip buyers get over eager. There was a little profit taking rally back in the last hour, so perhaps I was not the only one who had this idea.

Silver June futures retraced roughly 50% of their gains since the last major correction intraday, and the major stock indices tested key support levels as well. Gold has done remarkably well, but just eyeballing the chart, it too corrected almost 50% of its recent gains. The gold silver ratio is now back to something a little more familiar around 37.

I was very glad to see this correction in silver because it had gone parabolic. As Jimmy Rogers said, if silver had kept going it would have set itself up for a much greater fall later on. If we can sustain a more reasonable appreciation in the market, I think the upside is much further than most think. It depends on how the banks are able to unwind and hedge their shorts.

As you know I said I was taking my profits last week. I started buying back in yesterday and today and am now holding PM positions again with some hedges for a stock selloff.

I tend to believe that much of this market action in the States is just the tail wagging the dog, the few managing market prices for their fairly narrow personal benefit. So perhaps this little episode is done for now. The offtake of physical at these lower prices overnight has to be killing the supply lines.

There are rumours that some of the PIGS have been selling their central bank gold under some duress. Too bad they do not have any silver.

I do think there could be a more profound correction in the markets, but not yet. However, something could happen, or I could just be wrong.

Now that Blythe has had her fun, let's see what happens.

Until the banks are restrained and the balance is restored to the economy, markets will not be returning to anything resembling 'normal.'





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Alt 04.05.2011, 00:29   #8262
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Eric Sprott - “Sprott Has More Physical Silver Now Than Ever!”







With silver plummeting from $50 to the $40, today King World News interviewed Eric Sprott, Founder of Sprott Asset Management to clear up some misperceptions about Sprott’s sales of PSLV. When asked about what has transpired Sprott remarked, “Well Eric in response to your question, any proceeds that...
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Alt 04.05.2011, 02:17   #8263
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And Now For Today's Mini Silver Flash Crash: Same Time, Same Place


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2011 18:42 -0400


Just like yesterday and the day before, 6:30pm is now the official precious metal "bang the afterhours" launch time. As we predicted minutes ago, silver just got taken to the cleaners on what is now an apparent attempt to push silver around in the no volume part of after hours trading, in the 6-7 pm no man's land. We expect an imminent rebound after this latest attempt to trigger stop losses, probably those around $40, fails. If it succeeds in pushing silver below $40 it is very possible that the metal can promptly trade down to the mid $30s as a result. And while banging the close has been investigated by the CFTC for years (resulting in some modest smacks on the wrist recently for the ex-Moore trader who did this with impunity), we are confident it won't be before 2015 that the CFTC's commissioners investigate this particularly odd behavior in silver and gold. By then it, of course, won't matter.






http://www.zerohedge.com/article/an...time-same-place



Silver is off to play the grand piano


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Alt 04.05.2011, 08:03   #8264
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"Droht bei negativer Beihilfeentscheidung durch die EU und Rückzahlung dieser, bei der West-LB die Pleite ?!"

'FTD': Brüssel verlangt von WestLB bis Ende Juni weitere Details zum Umbau


HAMBURG/BRÜSSEL (dpa-AFX) - Im Streit um staatliche Beihilfen setzt die Brüsseler Wettbewerbsbehörde der WestLB laut einem Pressebericht eine allerletzte Galgenfrist. Nach Informationen der "Financial Times Deutschland" ('FTD'/Mittwoch) ist die Kommission unzufrieden mit den Plänen für die WestLB, die die Bundesregierung vor rund zwei Wochen dort eingereicht hat. Entsprechende Bedenken habe die Behörde am Wochenende in einem Schreiben an das Bundesfinanzministerium formuliert. Demzufolge verlangt Wettbewerbskommissar Joaquín Almunia bis Ende Juni alle weiteren Details darüber, wie die kleinere WestLB - bekannt auch als Sparkassenverbundbank - aussehen soll. Grundsätzlich begrüßte er aber erstmals schriftlich die Verbundbankpläne.

Parallel dazu bereitet Almunia dem Bericht zufolge eine "negative Beihilfeentscheidung"
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Only wait Prolongation 2016
Insolvenz US-Reg. -> End of 2016
Finanzkernschmelze (Tsunami) verursacht durch kreative Buchführung/Luftbuchungen(CDS,CDO,CMS,GSE,ABS,LBO,TAF,SIV) Höhepunkt 2016

Nullzinspolitik: FED (0,25% !),BoJ (0,01%!),SNB (-0,50% ),BOE (0,5 %),EZB (0,05 % !!!),Riksbank(1,75%),RBA(4% !) verzögert Gesundungsprozeß!
" Es lauern noch einige böse Überraschungen in den Büchern europ. Banken "
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Alt 04.05.2011, 09:14   #8265
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WSJ Reports Soros, Burbank Selling Gold, Silver, While Paulson Sees Gold Hitting $4,000 In Three Years

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2011 23:13 -0400

The rumormill around who is buying and selling precious metals is getting more ridiculous than daily Radioshack LBO speculation. The latest comes from the WSJ which informs that based on "people close to the matter" Soros and Burbank are now dumping their gold and silver: "George Soros's big hedge fund, a firm operated by high-profile investor John Burbank and some other leading firms have been selling gold and silver, according to people close to the matter, after furiously accumulating precious metals for much of the past two years." Greg Zuckerman's conclusion, assuming a multi billion hedge fund will actually let its competitors know what it is doing concurrently as it is doing it, is merited: "Their selling suggested the sharp, nine-month run-up for precious metals could be entering more dangerous territory." Of course, something tells us that just like Goldman, whose prop desk has a nagging tendency to buy as its sellside "analysts" say sell, we would rather hold off until we see respective 13Fs on the matter. In the meantime, we fail to see where over the past week the central (pardon the pun) thesis has changed: namely that central banks will not print more linen/cotton when the time comes. And if the market is indeed starting to price in QEasing's end, then the deflationary scare will certainly see the RUT plunge and undo months of carefully executed (by NYU interns) POMO operations. For a Fed which equates the economy with the RUT, this is simply unacceptable.


by DK Delta
on Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:18
#1236872
Soros is notorious for talking his book. I wouldn't trust any of these rumors either way.
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