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Alt 04.05.2011, 10:02   #8266
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@Hoka - was sagst Du dazu

.........
To prove that Harry is willing to put his money where his mouth is, he is advising the Dent Tactical ETF (DENT) which mirrors and executes on his views. The fund is up 20% in the past 12 months.
........

Harry was originally a “good ole boy” from South Carolina, who like Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke, improbably went off to Harvard where he got his MBA. His career then took him to the top notch management consulting firm, Bain & Co. After years of consulting with Fortune 100 companies, he found gaping holes in their understanding of the global economy. That spurred him to take off and create his own research boutique to address these grievous shortfalls in understanding.
To learn more about Harry S. Dent, please go to his website at http://www.meetharrydent.com/


full story: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/may-3-2011.html
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Alt 04.05.2011, 10:17   #8267
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Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Silver becoming a proxy for the entire commodity complex

Note the following chart comparing the price action in Silver against the price action of the broad commodity complex as a whole as illustrated by the Continuous Commodity Index.

The parallel is remarkable. What appears to be happening is that silver is becoming a type of proxy for the complex as a whole and in particular, for risk trades.

When risk trades are in vogue, silver is rocketing higher alongside of the rest of the commodity complex. When traders are avoiding risk and jettisoning the risk trades in favor of bonds or cash, the entire commodity complex seems to be following the exact same path as silver, namely down.

As mentioned in my earlier post, until the risk trades come back on, the silver market is going to languish. I am not sure what pill the hedge funds will have to swallow to bring them back to another frame of mind but the fact is we need the money flows that only the hedge funds can provide to take it back up again.


Posted by Trader Dan at 8:53 PM 4 comments
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Alt 04.05.2011, 15:11   #8268
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Zitat:
Zitat von lunar

@Hoka - was sagst Du dazu

Das ist das Deflationsszenario mit $ up, Öl $15 und DOW 1000. Bisher haben wir davon nichts gesehen und Ben hat eben bekräftigt, dass er weiter drucken will. Wenn denn Deflation käme, würde ich in der Bankrottorgie, die sich ergäbe, trotzdem Gold halten wollen und nicht die Schulden von irgend jemandem, auch nicht von einem Staat. Wieso soll Gold so stark sinken in einer Deflation? Wegen dieser Wellen? Darauf werde ich nicht bauen.


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Alt 04.05.2011, 15:34   #8269
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Portuguese Gold Sale Urged By Senior German Lawmakers As Mexican Central Bank Buys 100 Tonnes

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2011 07:59 -0400




Another sign of the increased appreciation of gold as an important asset came from Germany today where Angela Merkel’s budget speaker and his opposition counterpart have urged Portugal to consider selling their gold. Norbert Barthle, Germany’s governing coalition budget speaker and his counterpart Carsten Schneider from the Social Democrats, the biggest opposition party urged Portugal to consider selling some of its gold reserves to ease its debt problems. They called for a review of Portugal’s request for financial aid to include gold and other potential asset sales. The German lawmakers did not specify who should buy the gold from the Portuguese central bank but given the challenges facing Germany and the Eurozone it is likely that the Bundebank and the ECB would be willing buyers – if the gold is not already encumbered due to Portugal’s membership of the Eurozone. Meanwhile creditor nation central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves as seen with the breaking news from the Financial Times that the central bank of Mexico has been diversifying their currency reserves (largely in dollars) into gold with the purchase of 100 tonnes of gold bullion in February and March.

»
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Alt 04.05.2011, 16:05   #8270
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Zitat:
Zitat von Hoka

Das ist das Deflationsszenario mit $ up, Öl $15 und DOW 1000. Bisher haben wir davon nichts gesehen und Ben hat eben bekräftigt, dass er weiter drucken will. Wenn denn Deflation käme, würde ich in der Bankrottorgie, die sich ergäbe, trotzdem Gold halten wollen und nicht die Schulden von irgend jemandem, auch nicht von einem Staat. Wieso soll Gold so stark sinken in einer Deflation? Wegen dieser Wellen? Darauf werde ich nicht bauen.


ich auch nicht - bin aber doch erstaunt sich so eine Prognose bezahlen zu lassen
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Alt 04.05.2011, 18:04   #8271
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Mexico, Russia, Thailand Add $6 Billion of Gold to Reserves, IMF Data Show

By Nicholas Larkin - May 4, 2011 5:29 PM GMT+0200



The Bank of Mexico added 93.3 metric tons of gold to its reserves since January, according to International Monetary Fund data through the end of March. Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg

Mexico, Russia and Thailand added gold now valued at about $6 billion to their reserves in February and March as prices advanced to a record, the dollar weakened and Treasuries lost investors money.

Mexico bought 93.3 metric tons since January, adding to holdings of about 6.9 tons, according to International Monetary Fund data. Russia increased its reserves by 18.8 tons to 811.1 tons in March and Thailand expanded assets by 9.3 tons to 108.9 tons in the same month, the data show......

full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-data-show.html
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Alt 04.05.2011, 18:38   #8272
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Alt 05.05.2011, 00:02   #8273
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CME Hikes Silver Margins By 17%: 4th Hike In 8 Trading Days


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2011 17:36 -0400



Nobody could have foreseen this. Nobody. At this point there is nothing left to comment on what is a concerted action to "mitigate" any and all risk in the commodity market but could as well be classified as executive order 6102.5. While we were joking before that soon one will have to post more cash than an silver contract is worth, we are now forced to reevaluate this sarcasm.

CME Silver


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cm...-8-trading-days


Who needs paper when you can get the physical stuff?

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Alt 05.05.2011, 00:39   #8274
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Trader Dan's Market Views

GroundHog Day for Silver - AGAIN


This seems to be a pattern much like the movie starring Bill Murray where he gets trapped in a day which keeps repeating itself until he gets it right. With the Comex however it seems to be a matter of seeing how many small specs (and even some larger ones) they can take out of the silver market so as to make certain that the perma shorts (which by the way are voting members at the exchange) can recoup the entirety of their paper losses they suffered as silver roared higher from down near $26 back in January of this year.

For the second time in a week, and for the FOURTH time in two weeks, the exchange is once again hiking margin requirements for trading silver. Actually, it will be FIVE Times in less than 3 weeks with Monday's hike.

This time it advances to $18,900 from the current $16,200 effective as of the close of business tomorrow or Thursday. Maintenance margin jumps to $14,000 from $12,000. Hedgers are facing an increase as well but it is to maintenance margin levels.


If that were not enough, then come Monday the margin rate gets hiked AGAIN, jumping to $21,600 with a new maintenance margin of $16,000. At current silver values, that amounts to more than 10% of the total value of a single silver futures contract if you want to play.

Obviously this is going to produce even more volatility as the small specs exit the market, most of them being unable to afford to trade it except for all but the specs with the deepest of pockets. A lot of the small guys are probably already wrung out but those who might have been long from lower levels and were unaffected by the margin hike due to the paper profits they might have from being long at a lower level could be at risk if this market continues dropping.

This is ostensibly designed to protect the integrity of the clearing houses as well as giving some brokers the cover they need to hike margins on their clients to protect their own firms in the event of trades gone sour. Keep in mind that these are MINIMUM MARGIN REQUIREMENTS. Brokers are free to set customer margins wherever they wish as long as they meet minimum. That means they could go to $25,000 or even $30,000 per contract if that is what their firm feels more comfortable with.

I suspect however that there is more here than keeping the integrity of the clearing houses. It is too much too fast given the already steep decline in the market. It smells like a deliberate effort is being orchestrated to take the metal lower and rescue the shorts who as I said previously, are voting members of the exchange and who could no longer handle the bleeding of their accounts.

Nothing like transparency and free markets....

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Alt 05.05.2011, 01:30   #8275
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex Raises Silver Margins for 4th Time

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_04.html



CME Raises Silver Margin Requirements for the 4th Time

I'm trying to remember how many times the Fed raised stock margin requirement during the tech bubble, or mortgage down payment minimums and bank reserve requirements in the last credit bubble.

The spin machine and demand dampening campaigns are well underway in an attempt to rescue the pampered princes of Wall Street and the City of London from yet another overleveraged paper asset scheme gone wrong, wobbling the Anglo-American banking system.

It is the duty of the central banks and the government to preserve and protect the privileged few and their financiers not only from justice, but any pain of loss or minor inconveniences as well, no matter the cost to the public trust.

Now if only they could magically create some substantial new bullion supplies for the Comex to forestall what appears to be an approaching default on delivery, at least based on identifiable inventory and assets represented by paper in customers' hands.

As Daniel Drew once famously observed:
"He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back, or go to prison."




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Alt 05.05.2011, 01:55   #8276
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King World News

Ben Davies Called Silver Smash, Now Looking For Big Up-Move in Silver After Correction & Consolidation Ends http://tinyurl.com
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Alt 05.05.2011, 01:59   #8277
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CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2011 18:48 -0400





Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.

»
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Alt 05.05.2011, 02:48   #8278
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King World News

Dan Norcini - Silver Plummets, What to Look For Now? http://tinyurl.com/3lqtzpx
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Alt 05.05.2011, 08:49   #8279
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Zitat:
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King World News

Dan Norcini - Silver Plummets, What to Look For Now? http://tinyurl.com/3lqtzpx

Interview
...."Meaning the paper market does not care about the physical market.”...
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Alt 05.05.2011, 09:11   #8280
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04 May 2011

An Interesting Theory on Silver for Volatile Times in Desperate Economic Conditions

Here is an interesting theory on the recent silver run up and correction which someone pointed out to me this evening from a chatboard.

I do not know if his theory is valid of course, and the author allows as much, as more data is required. I doubt even the COT report this Friday will be of use. I like to follow Harvey Organ and Dan Norcini on these matters and will look forward to their weekend commentary.

But what this person is saying is essentially the 'gut read' I had while watching the tape, off and on in recent days.

If the market was correcting because longs were selling out and walking away, why did the CME have to do a 4th and 5th margin increase to make it more difficult to hold long positions? If something is burning of its own accord, why keep pouring gasoline on it, over and over?

Well one explanation is that they want people to cut their losses and not be overwhelmed if the prices continue lower. That is legitimate and I would be very grateful if they were to begin doing that. Too bad that US regulators never seem to do this when it really counts, like with equities and home mortgages and banking leverage for example.

But there was no denying that the parabolic increase was just dodgy. As you may recall I expressed wonder at it, and took my trading profits off the table, to much private criticism in the emails I might add.

And then we saw the repeated late night hits that started in conjunction with the CME's actions to increase margins, market actions that were too obvious to be accidental or coincidental.


I really believe that the core of the problem involves the deliverable ounces at CME, a big looming problem. I think the CFTC knows quite a bit more about the dynamics of this market and its associated and opaque derivatives than they admit. And I believe they are desperately concerned.

I did post a link from Ben Davies this evening in which he speculates that the high prices brought a load of scrap into the market, which is what prices do. But that scrap has not been measured, and it would have happened rather quickly, in a matter of weeks. I do not think the refiners can produce new eligible bars quickly enough even from scrap.

But regardless, it has not really shown up where we would like to see it. And as Ben points out, once this initial influx of scrap, low hanging fruit they like to call it, is exhausted, prices will begin to climb again because miners cannot even begin to adjust supply higher quickly enough. And the market action in the miners continues to be heavy handed and manipulative from my vantage point.

I suspect a lot more of what has entered the market is forward hedging by some of the bigger miners and the bullion banks, who were locking in profits, but ON PAPER.

So a lot of paper silver may have entered the market, but that is not really what is needed. So the exchange and the regulators and the big dealer who are incredibly short feel the need to dampen demand for near term bullion. And by driving down the price they worsen a bad situation IF systemic shortages exist due to years of market underpricing and undersupply. And if that is the case, the short term fix is a longer term poke in the eye with a sharp stick. But few can accuse American management style of a bias to the long term solutions when a lucrative short term fix that becomes someone else's problem is available.

I am just fascinated by this, and cannot wait to see how it resolves and it develops. I am viewing this as one act in a much larger drama, the reforming of the global governance system that has been in place since the end of World War II.

Let's see what happens, and what comes floating in on the tides of change.

And please try to keep in mind what has happened over the past ten years. I am utterly amazed that the US has just passed through one of the greatest financial scandals and frauds in history, and within two or three years is willing to act as though nothing had happened, that it was just some random act of God, and that everything is back to a 'new normal' again. Few prosecutions and shallow reforms. Remarkable.

Well, things are not normal. There is an abscess in the body politic. And the next collapse and crisis which is coming is going to be monumental. And some surely view it as an opportunity to feed their will to power. And perhaps Ron Paul will prove to have been prescient.
"Believe me, the next step is a currency crisis because there will be a rejection of the dollar, the rejection of the dollar is a big, big event, and then your personal liberties are going to be severely threatened." Ron Paul
Let's see what happens, and wait for some stronger indications of what the situation may be. As noted here many times, these are particularly dangerous markets, and only professionals and highly experienced traders should be actively in them.

But there is no charge for watching...
WSB
CME Margin Hike won't matter, The CRIMEX Clowns got stuffed yesterday
wrs - Wed, May 4, 2011 - 08:48 PM

I think I know what happened. I kept thinking that if OI increased on the kind of price drop we saw yesterday, then longs didn't capitulate because if they did, OI would have shrunk.

Here is what I think happened, the Commercials have been decreasing their net short in this latest run up, in other words, they helped it go up by covering short and going long. I believe they were doing that to accentuate the rise and to be able to liquidate their profits and accentuate the drop and cover short when the spec longs gave up. They wanted silver to look parabolic and then fail in order to scare everyone off.

Well it looks like the large specs have held tight, the COT report on Friday should show that the large long specs increased longs and are more net long while the commercials are more net short. Yesterday it was the commercials selling at a discount to the spec longs who just soaked up all the selling the commercials could do.

So today they raised margins again because I bet that the OI didn't drop much today if they had to raise margins again.

This is setting up for a huge snap back rally if my conjecture is close to correct.
Posted by Jesse at 9:21 PM
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