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Alt 28.05.2013, 22:00   #3886
Hoka
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Rising Margin, Negative Guidance, Madness of Crowds



Early this morning one of my compadre's asked me, 'Is there some reason for this rally?'

And I answered, somewhat glibly, 'Yes, it's rally Tuesday.'

Stocks will have rallied 20 Tuesdays in a row in the US if they rally again today.

And that is as good an answer as any, although the already rallying market 'got some jets' when the Consumer Confidence number came out better than expected at 10 AM.

The Conference Board confidence number is highly correlated, as a lagging variable, to the stock market price. In other words, consumer confidence follows the market, and not the other way around. It is less a reason for a stock rally than an excuse. Rising stocks tend to give some people a good feeling about the economic outlook. And don't think for a minute that the financial planners do not know this.

The underpinnings of this marvelous rally are not substantial to say the least, despite the usual assurances of economists that this is not a stock bubble. Or that there is no bond bubble which is a real howler given the Fed's steady non-market-priced buying of billions of bonds each month. I suppose that is why the Primary Dealers had to take down 65% of today's two year auction. Let's not notice the man behind the curtain so we can feel 'confident.'

Bubble or not, new era or not, QE or not, at some point price reverts to the mean, to the fundamental and sustainable market equilibrium, every time. And it will do so despite the hubris of the modern monetary theorists, from Bernanke to Krugman to Mosler. Reality is not whatever we say it is, even if one is able to persuade a large number of people to believe it, for a time.

If this falsehood is held in place long enough, even by force, the reversion will occur in extremis through a collapse of the currency. This is what we saw in the fall of the old Soviet Union.

Here is an interview with Jim Grant that I found to be interesting. I do find his belief in the efficiency of markets to be curious, if not obtuse, when he says that there can be no manipulation in gold because otherwise everyone would know it.

People have a remarkable ability not to see things when their paycheck depends on their not seeing it. And a belief in the system remains stubborn amongst those who have basically honest hearts. They cannot believe in a perfidy so great amongst people sworn to uphold the public interest.

How else would you explain the fact that so few saw the housing bubble, the widespread fraud in the credit markets, and the mispriced risks and co-dependencies of the insolvent in the financial system that so recently caused world markets to collapse?

The release of gold into the markets by western central banks, through both overt sales and leasing to bullion banks, is beyond all doubt, except for the opaquely hidden details and the refusal to admit them to audit. And the odd positions in the futures markets are knowable, but also shrouded behind a stonewall of regulatory intransigence. But otherwise he raises a number of excellent things to think about.

All things will be revealed with time.

And here below are two charts that someone sent my way which I found to be disconcerting.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery. Until this is done, neither stimulus nor austerity will have any lasting, meaningful, and positive effect.










Posted by Jesse at 11:24 AM
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Alt 28.05.2013, 23:10   #3887
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Russia Warns Obama: Monsanto

Posted: May 28th, 2013 ˑ Filled under: Top News ˑ 31 Comments

The shocking minutes relating to President Putin’s meeting this past week with US Secretary of State John Kerry reveal the Russian leaders “extreme outrage” over the Obama regimes continued protection of global seed and plant bio-genetic giants Syngenta and Monsanto in the face of a growing “bee apocalypse” that the Kremlin warns “will most certainly” lead to world war.

According to these minutes, released in the Kremlin today by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation (MNRE), Putin was so incensed over the Obama regimes refusal to discuss this grave matter that he refused for three hours to even meet with Kerry, who had traveled to Moscow on a scheduled diplomatic mission, but then relented so as to not cause an even greater rift between these two nations.

At the center of this dispute between Russia and the US, this MNRE report says, is the “undisputed evidence” that a class of neuro-active insecticides chemically related to nicotine, known as neonicotinoids, are destroying our planets bee population, and which if left unchecked could destroy our world’s ability to grow enough food to feed its population.

...

http://topinfopost.com/2013/05/28/russia-warns-obama-monsanto
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Alt 28.05.2013, 23:12   #3888
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Amount of Dollar GDP Added For Each Additional Dollar of US Federal Debt



The line represents each dollar of GDP added for each incremental dollar of Federal Debt.

I would suggest that someone look into why the velocity of debt is now running into the law of diminishing returns. The big slide started with Reagonomics and the 'supply side' theory based on the second chart.

It might have something to do with a corrupt financial system, the myth of efficient markets and globalization, tax cuts for the wealthy and unfunded wars, and the largely stagnating median wage.

However one wishes to slice it, it might be difficult to make up in volume what is taken away by a crippled financial system that keeps sweeping the productivity gains and national wealth up to the one percent where it is used for largely non-productive monopolization of resources, political corruption, unfunded endless wars, and fraud.




Posted by Jesse at 3:38 PM
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Alt 29.05.2013, 23:19   #3889
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US 10 Year Note Yield Very Long Term Chart



One picture is worth 1000 words.

This puts some teeth in the concept of 'historic lows.'


Ten Year Note Yield with SP 500


Charts courtesy of Ralph Dillon at Global Financial Data


Posted by Jesse at 2:46 PM
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Alt 30.05.2013, 03:24   #3890
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Keiser Report: Debt Crack Banker Babies (E450)







In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss crack babies and debt crack banker babies. In the second half, Max talks to James Howard Kunstler, author of the Long Emergency, about the US central bank pushing debt crack on an unemployed and under-educated population and a media high on frack crack - a high which makes the user see the oil wealth of Saudi Arabia in America.
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Alt 31.05.2013, 06:11   #3891
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Alt 02.06.2013, 01:21   #3892
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Ed Steer:


James Rickards: Economic Shifts, Financial Shocks and Currency Wars

When one increases the scale of a complex system the risk of collapse rises even faster. This is not speculation, it is sound theoretical science. Unless society takes immediate steps to reduce the scale of today’s complex capital markets by breaking up banks and banning derivatives it faces a catastrophic collapse on a par with the Bronze Age or Ancient Rome.

Unknown to most observers is that the financial dangers of 2008 have not gone away, in fact, the situation is worse. The biggest banks are even bigger with a larger share of total bank assets. The taxpayers bailed out the system in 2008 and got nothing in return except the prospect of having to do it again. If the system is riskier and more dangerous than it was in 2008, where will the next collapse begin? What domino will cause the other dominoes to fall? A survey of the big three currency areas – Europe, China and the United States – provides a foundation for understanding why real risks remain and a new catastrophe is looming.

This 18-page commentary from Jim was presented at The International Institute for Strategic Studies last fall...and it's my belief that this is the first time that this presentation has become available in the public domain. If you follow Jim's work as closely as I do, this falls into the must read category as well. I thank reader Harold Jacobsen for digging this up for us.


http://www.iiss.org/en/events/geo-e...s-rickards-7a6e
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Geändert von Hoka (02.06.2013 um 01:31 Uhr).
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Alt 02.06.2013, 01:50   #3893
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Taibbi: Allegedly SEC Policy Not To Pursue Investment Management Fraud Allegations LIke Madoff



It sometimes looks like open season on the small investor and the public at large with some very selective enforcement of the laws.

"All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others."
Why Didn't the SEC Catch Madoff? It Might Have Been Policy Not To
By Matt Taibbi
May 31, 5:20 PM ET

More and more embarrassing stories of keep leaking out the SEC, which is beginning to look somehow worse than corrupt – it's hard to find the right language exactly, but "aggressively clueless" comes pretty close to summing up the atmosphere that seems to be ruling the country's top financial gendarmes.

The most recent contribution to the broadening canvas of dysfunction and incompetence surrounding the SEC is a whistleblower complaint filed by 56-year-old Kathleen Furey, a senior lawyer who worked in the New York Regional Office (NYRO), the agency outpost with direct jurisdiction over Wall Street.

Furey's complaint is full of startling revelations about the SEC, but the most amazing of them is that Furey and the other 20-odd lawyers who worked in her unit at the NYRO were actually barred by a superior from bringing cases under two of the four main securities laws governing Wall Street, the Investment Advisors Act of 1940 and the Investment Company Act of 1940.

According to Furey, her group at the SEC's New York office, from a period stretching for over half a decade through December, 2008, did not as a matter of policy pursue cases against investment managers like Bernie Madoff. Furey says she was told flatly by her boss, Assistant Regional Director George Stepaniuk, that "We do not do IM cases."

Some background is necessary to explain the significance of this tale...
Read the entire news story here.


Posted by Jesse at 12:10 AM



Making a Million an Hour Means never having to say you're sorry

...
We exist in a political-economic system that allows people who manufacture nothing and bet on everything to control the financial destinies of the rest of the population with impunity, and make stupendous amounts of money doing it. Because, as Leopold writes, “Making a million an hour means never having to say you’re sorry.” ...
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